Edison Program

Integrated Master Plan

Edison Program Integrated Master Plan December 10th, 2006



Table of Contents Executive Overview ............................................................................................................ 1 Strategy ........................................................................................................................... 2 Scope of CALM .............................................................................................................. 3 Definition of Success ...................................................................................................... 5 The Integrated Master Plan ................................................................................................. 7 Organization ................................................................................................................ 8 Areas of Focus ............................................................................................................ 8 Methods....................................................................................................................... 8 Documentation ............................................................................................................ 8 Organization of IPTs ......................................................................................................... 10 The IPT Model .............................................................................................................. 11 Integrated Planning Tasks of the IPTs ...................................................................... 13 RAA (Responsibilities, Authority, and Accountability) ........................................... 13 Mission ...................................................................................................................... 14 Major Milestones ...................................................................................................... 14 Risk Management ..................................................................................................... 14 Technical Performance Measures ............................................................................. 14 Affordability ............................................................................................................. 14 Integrated Process Team – Organization .......................................................................... 15 Leadership IPT .............................................................................................................. 15 Integrated System Model IPT ....................................................................................... 16 Plant Model IPT ........................................................................................................ 17 Platform/Migration IPT ............................................................................................ 18 Dynamic Scheduler IPT ............................................................................................ 20 Operational Management IPT ....................................................................................... 21 MECC IPT ................................................................................................................ 22 Cable Center IPT....................................................................................................... 23 S/S Protection Relays IPT ......................................................................................... 23 Manhole Events IPT ................................................................................................. 24 Work Process IPT ......................................................................................................... 27 Cable Scrap IPT ........................................................................................................ 27

i

Integrated Master Plan Alive on Backfeed IPT.............................................................................................. 28 Flush Truck Optimization IPT .................................................................................. 29 Daily Sign-on IPT ..................................................................................................... 29 Grid Optimization (GO) IPT ......................................................................................... 30 CALM Methods to be used by IPTs ................................................................................. 32 System Development Process ....................................................................................... 32 Requirements Analysis ................................................................................................. 33 Requirements Analysis ................................................................................................. 40 Statement of Needs ................................................................................................... 40 Stakeholder Requirements ........................................................................................ 40 Functional Definition ................................................................................................ 40 System Requirements................................................................................................ 41 Physical Definition.................................................................................................... 41 Subsystem/Components Requirements ..................................................................... 41 Design Validation ..................................................................................................... 42 Acceptance Plan ........................................................................................................ 42 Change Management ................................................................................................ 42 Testing........................................................................................................................... 42 Documentation .................................................................................................................. 43 Value Analysis .............................................................................................................. 43 Business Process Modeling........................................................................................... 44 Schedule ............................................................................................................................ 47 List of IPTs ....................................................................................................................... 49 EVSMA procedure............................................................................................................ 52 Template ....................................................................................................................... 52 Detailed Project Plan......................................................................................................... 54 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 54 1.

Create Collaborative Environment ........................................................................... 57 1.1.

Build ISM Collaborative Environment ............................................................. 58

1.2.

Build Transmission System PM........................................................................ 58

1.3.

Develop Transmission 900 Diagram input data BPM ...................................... 59

1.4.

Build Primary and Secondary PM .................................................................... 59

1.5.

Build interface to Load Data ............................................................................. 59 ii


2.

3.

1.6.

Build S/S Model ................................................................................................ 60

1.7.

Build net RMS Interface ................................................................................... 60

1.8.

Validate Model.................................................................................................. 61

1.9.

Build Interfaces to Structures............................................................................ 61

1.10.

Build ML-PM Interface ................................................................................ 61

1.11.

Build BPM-PM Interface .............................................................................. 62

1.12.

Build Staten Island - Ref Imp ....................................................................... 62

1.13.

Build Sutton – Ref Implementation .............................................................. 63

1.14.

Commercialization ........................................................................................ 63

Improve Business Efficiency .................................................................................... 65 2.1.

Develop Scheduler Requirements ..................................................................... 66

2.2.

Develop Transmission Scheduler Requirements .............................................. 67

2.3.

Develop S/S Scheduler Requirements .............................................................. 67

2.4.

Develop Operations Scheduler Requirements .................................................. 68

2.5.

Develop Distribution Scheduler Requirements ................................................ 69

2.6.

Integrate scheduling activities and design system ............................................ 69

2.7.

Develop Optimization of Scheduler.................................................................. 70

2.8.

Develop BPM for Processes ............................................................................. 70

2.9.

Deploy Maintenance Scheduler ........................................................................ 70

2.10.

Staten Island BPM – Ref Implementation .................................................... 71

2.11.

Develop Brooklyn Queens Flush Optimization Plan: ................................... 71

2.12.

Install GPS in B/Q Flush Trucks .................................................................. 71

2.13.

Sign-on in Electric Operations ...................................................................... 72

2.14.

Reduce Cable Waste in Electric Operations ................................................. 72

2.15.

Eliminate ABF in CECONY Electric Operations ......................................... 73

2.16.

Forecast Customer Uncollectibles ................................................................ 73

2.17.

Activity Tracking linked to Costing Model – Ref Imp ................................. 74

2.18.

Scheduler in B/Q RE major projects - Ref Imp ............................................ 74

2.19.

BPM for Replevin – Ref Implementation ..................................................... 74

2.20.


Provide Decision Aids .............................................................................................. 76 3.1.

Predict Problems via susceptibility of feeders in real time ............................... 77

3.2.

Predict Survivability – Real Time..................................................................... 77 iii


4.

5.

3.3.

Predict Customer Susceptibility of Feeders and Networks – Real Time .......... 78

3.4.

Predict MTTF for Manhole Events, Stray Voltage ........................................... 79

3.5.

Predict better Day Ahead Weather using Deep Thunder –Ref Imp.................. 80

3.6.

Predict Thunder Storm tracks and effects in ORU ........................................... 80

3.7.

Predict Network level day-ahead load forecast ................................................ 80

3.8.

Predict Network Transformer level day-ahead forecast ................................... 81

3.9.

Develop Operational responses to weather ....................................................... 81

3.10.

Integration of Real-Time Susceptibility and Survivability .......................... 82

3.11.

Merge Engineering Workstation Customer Susceptibility ........................... 82

3.12.

Merge Transformer Load Variances into Secondary Monitoring................. 83

3.13.

Develop Battlefield Visibility GUI ............................................................... 83

3.14.

Geographic ISM - City-Wide System ........................................................... 84

3.15.

Develop Real Time Analysis with the ISM .................................................. 84

3.16.

Connect BPM Tracking to ML/PM/visualization ......................................... 85

3.17.

Create Contingency Plans ............................................................................. 85

3.18.

Decision Aids in Staten Island – Ref Imp ..................................................... 86

3.19.

Reference Implementation in Manhattan/Sutton – Decision Aids ............... 86

3.20.

BQ Reference Implementation ..................................................................... 87

3.21.

Merge Time-Series Relays and S/S Monitoring into Decision Aids ............ 87

3.22.

Direct State Controller .................................................................................. 88

3.23.


Optimize Assets Management .................................................................................. 89 4.1.

Develop Lifecycle Strategy............................................................................... 90

4.2.

Optimize Replacement ...................................................................................... 91

4.3.

Survivability Ranking ....................................................................................... 91

4.4.

Optimize for System Change ............................................................................ 91

4.5.

Optimize for System Survivability ................................................................... 92

4.6.

Asset Management in Staten Island – Ref Imp ................................................. 92

4.7.

Reference Implementation in Manhattan .......................................................... 93

4.8.

Commercialization ............................................................................................ 93

Develop Smart Grid .................................................................................................. 94 5.1.

Evaluate Strategies ............................................................................................ 95

5.2.

Develop Controller............................................................................................ 96 iv

Integrated Master Plan 5.3.

Evaluate Financials ........................................................................................... 97

5.4.

Develop Infrastructure ...................................................................................... 98

5.5.

ISM Grid Optimization: Reference Implementation ........................................ 99

5.6.

Evangelize Smart Grid via Customer Analysis and Response ....................... 100

5.7.

Develop Test Bed Simulation for Reconfiguration Intelligence..................... 101

5.8.

Commercialization .......................................................................................... 101

IMP to IMS ................................................................................................................. 102

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Executive Overview The purpose of the Edison program is to enable operational innovation through development and deployment of adaptive business intelligence software focused on managing business risk and driving out inefficiencies. This corporate-wide, transformational initiative also enhances customer service and reliability, and increases the assurance that new system designs will be effective when introduced to the electric grid. The program is a collaborative effort between Con Edison, Inc. (CE), Electric Distribution Design, Inc. (EDD), and the Center for Computational Learning Systems at Columbia University (CCLS). Three major software systems are being developed and integrated with existing legacy software systems to form one Integrated System Model (ISM) of the business: •

Plant Model (PM) – A high-resolution, flexible and integrated model of Con Edison’s entire electrical infrastructure, from transmission, through substations, to distribution, and to every customer.

•

Business Process Model (BPM) – A flexible model designed to capture and automate tasks & information processes throughout the company.

•

Machine Learning (ML) – Adaptive dynamic programming that couples to these models and to existing information to create intelligence that optimizes the business in this uncertain world.

The ISM, when deployed using lean1 principles, will enforce quality control and automate data capture. Data will be entered at the source, once and only once, and made available to everyone in the company to solve emergent problems. In addition, model simulations of the business and exogenous drivers, combined with machine learning software and algorithms, will enable prediction and create control actions to optimally manage risks and improve efficiencies. The Edison program is designed to have a rolling, ten-year vision and a five-year planning horizon that is described in this Integrated Master Plan (IMP). Its companion, the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), accompanies the IMP, and together they form the dynamic roadmap for execution of CALM2. CALM requires Systems Engineering in addition to CE’s traditional, engineering-focused, project management because of the large complex development and integration effort required. Unlike more traditional, multi-year CE projects, this program will remain adaptive in order to continuously innovate and improve the tools, techniques, and products generated to produce operational innovation.

1

Lean management is a methodology for efficient enforcement of process rigor and discipline in order to dramatically cut costs and improve operations of an enterprise. 2

Computer Aided Lean Management (CALM) is software-enforced lean systems integration that enables operational innovation.

1

Integrated Master Plan CALM will introduce a combination of commercial software and new technologies invented collaboratively by CE, EDD, and Columbia University into Con Edison’s business. A major hallmark of CALM is to introduce alpha versions of flexible software and algorithms. This allows iterative development of the software along side CE operations personnel. Therefore, complex software development and integration can be analyzed and improved without the risk of deploying inflexible, massive IT software platforms that have consistently proven to be suboptimal. In many cases, these rigid software platforms get completely abandoned and waste millions of dollars because they never meet all the business users’ requirements. In addition, they are expensive to modify when requirements get better defined, or change with discovery how to do things more efficiently (Operational Innovation). The IMP and IMS are “living” documents that continually are updated as the roles, policies and responsibilities of the Integrated Process Teams (IPT) that execute the plan change to meet the requirements of CE. Within this IMP, we also describe the documentation and reporting requirements for this lean program. In summary, this IMP lays out how its team members are going to communicate and collaborate with other organizations involved in achieving this “moonshot.” Upon the Edison program and its associated funding being approved by the Chief Executive Officer, all team members and management will sign off on the IMP and the IMS, and seal the commitment to its execution.

Strategy CALM is a methodology for running a business based on the common sense approach of measuring the results of actions taken and using those measurements to design new processes that drive out inefficiencies and reduce risks. In the ISM, we will have modeled the business so that alternatives can be explored to find innovations required to improve the company’s enterprise value. The ISM is being uniquely designed to have data entered once and only once, in a quality controlled manner, and that information will then be readily available throughout the company to solve problems by anyone in the company. The ISM provides a unified model of all vital assets and components of the business, preserved with their topological connectivity. Algorithms from all organizations are then layered on top of this core information. This is a major paradigm shift in the running of a business. All important decisions are modeled and this information is used and shared across the entire Enterprise. Within CALM, the ISM provides the tools needed to “see” the competitive landscape and the uncertain environment within which the company operates. Much of the computer intelligence to interpret the meaning of feedback required to improve performance will be provided by machine learning and modeling tools being developed at CCLS and EDD for this project. The company will use these tools to adapt CALM in order to become more proactive and adaptive, and therefore better able to perform successfully in the future as the “business we are in” changes. CALM originated in the U.S. Military, then expanded to automotive (the Toyota Way), aerospace (Boeing, Lockheed Martin), petrochemicals 2

Integrated Master Plan (Dow, Dupont), oil and gas (BP, Shell), retailing (Wal-Mart), and industrial (GE) and internet services (Google). The adoption of CALM is expected to provide CE with a significant competitive advantage in its existing core business of electric and gas utilities. CALM is transformational and may be used in the future as the platform to enable mergers and acquisitions where significant synergies are achievable in both SG&A and operational departments (synergy savings that have been traditionally unachievable in the utility industry).

Scope of CALM The Edison Program will develop and deploy an Integrated System Model (ISM) made up of software tools that enable operational innovation within the company, collectively called Computer-Aided Lean Management (CALM). This IMP outlines the plan of events and discoveries that are required. Implementation of Computer-Aided Lean Management A CALM system seeks perfection in performance through continuous improvement. This aggressive learning system requires feedback loops that are a key concept of CALM. The goal is to use rigorous enforcement of feedback loops that first predict outcomes and then make corrections based upon objective scoring of the predictions versus actual events. Again, the lean process is solidly footed in theory, and practiced by such diverse companies as UTC, Apple, Southwest Airlines, FedEx, and Dell, in addition to those mentioned above. Most of the tools and methods of lean have been put in place piecemeal at energy companies, but this feedback loop is usually the one critical piece that is missing. Actions are seldom tracked, scored, and improved based on CALM’s “brutally empirical” methodology. First and foremost, Con Edison will need to implement an automated way to track actions, measure performance, and rigorously adjust the system to improve future performance. People alone are not enough. The balanced scorecard is an example of a way many energy companies improve human performance, but it does not improve the linkage among human, machine, and computer models required by lean energy management. In contrast, CALM uses ideas from stochastic control, option theory, and machine learning to build a software support system that enforces the optimization of business and engineering objectives, simultaneously, and under uncertainty. To start the implementation of CALM, a commitment to changing culture, incentives, or training is not necessarily needed. A grass roots reconfiguration is possible without the announcements of a TQM or ERP program. In the past, such isolated programs have been largely ineffective because of very human reasons. For example, many believe that they already know what is required, and assume little personal change is required. These projects are often doomed even before they get started. For just such people-side problems, CALM adds a software rigor that enforces the required change. From a cultural perspective, CE already collects an immense amount of data about how the system is working and analyzes it for improvement, so a transition to CALM will most likely not seem foreign to most employees. The soft side of collaboration will need 3

Integrated Master Plan to be understood amongst the various IPT team members, however, because the enforcement via computer integration moves significant “Cheese”3. The central CALM principles are to encode processes and practices in software, and create steering signals at multiple levels throughout the enterprise. Symptoms must be detected and identified with problems, which must then be mapped to solutions, which many organizations do well. However, metrics must then be created to score the real performance of these solutions, so that feedback can create corrections to the solutions that don’t work so well. CE does not do this ‘action tracking’ well at the moment. In order to implement CALM, the following work will need to be performed by the Integrated Process Teams. All the steps that are described below must be present. Leave any one out, and the organization will not perform optimally. Identify business capability The organizational barriers and relationships must first be described, and technologies and processes used by both system components and people mapped. Build a model of the system An axiom of control theory is, "to control a process, one first must understand the system well enough to model it" — either implicitly or explicitly. The teams must first map the processes involved in a business capability, then link models to the processes. Model representing the physics of electricity transmission and distribution, like power flow, accompanied by statistical analyses such as reliability of the system at every component and customer, must be integrated with these more discrete process models to fully actuate CALM. Action tracking of all critical functions Intellectual and real capital is lost because of the lack of the recording of all the actions affecting a process. Realizing this capability often is a major IT problem because it requires tracking actions from application-to-application and person-to-person across the many silos of the company’s software inventory. One must build a database of these software and people interactions in order to track actions, as well as build an archive of the context of each action. They must then be "playable again" and “discoverable” in a simulation mode so that incorrect actions can be analyzed, understood, and prevented from happening again. Score all important responses to those actions CALM requires that metrics must be produced to score the response of the business capability to each action taken, so that the system can learn from the past and become optimized to better and better actions. It is an amazing fact that in non-lean organizations, such as most in the utility industry, bad actions are consistently repeated. Value flexibility with Real Options

3

Who moved the cheese? – Author - Spencer Johnson

4

Integrated Master Plan This important step is at the core of the constant reevaluation of a business capability as lean organizations improve and adapt to a world of volatility. Since under a real option framework, there is value to adding flexibility under uncertainty, any system will be driven to maximize its flexibility in lean implementation. All utilities currently base their planning on Net Present Value (NPV) models, which do not value this optionality. Continuously reassess risk and uncertainty Likewise, risks and uncertainties must be continuously reevaluated in order to make the right decisions. Prediction of the future and decision support based on these predictions is critically important. We envisage that eventually electric system components like switches and breakers will autonomously compute live price and expense data streams, complete with their volatilities, to generate control signals via CALM to optimize system reliability, cost, and performance. Automate steering signals to optimize performance The generation of steering signals is the critical part of CALM that is often missing from organizations. These steering signals must anticipate and adapt to external and internal uncertainties and locations of flexibility within the business capability, simultaneously. Adaptive rather than rigid policies result. Continuously update Value Drivers for the Business Value Drivers that CALM immediately focuses on are: •

Removal of process inefficiencies, thereby saving money and time in all operations.

•

Improvement in asset utilization, through more effective maintenance thereby reducing the unreliability of assets.

•

Improved asset utilization, by operating, maintaining, and designing the system more efficiently.

•

Optimization of operational flexibility, by developing knowledge of the system that can speed-up and improve monitoring, decision support, and control capabilities.

•

Reduction of costs by reducing administrative functions, data entry, work processes, and by improving the planning of work through use of continuously evolving business information.

•

Enhancement in customer service, by enabling a robust customer relationship and enhancing reliability.

Definition of Success It is expected that the full implementation of CALM will enable a 50% reduction in expenses to serve our customers at today’s levels of business risk and service. This result has consistently been realized by the other companies listed above as they implemented CALM over many years. It is expected that actual costs seen by our customers will go down modestly over the long term, and that future deployments of capital and O&M will 5

Integrated Master Plan be more effectively invested in the business to enhance service. CALM will enable customers to drive out inefficiencies in their usage of the grid, resulting in our product’s increased value, through higher utilization of our infrastructure. This success will enable stable growth in enterprise value with significantly lower business risk from regulatory and competitive intervention, as well as provide a platform for growth through M&A4.

4

The CALM business plan and its appendices go into more detail on the strategy of this IMP execution plan.

6


The Integrated Master Plan This IMP is a living document that will define the: • • • • • • • • • •

Organization Goals Projects Methods Documentation Roles Policies Responsibilities Authority Accountability

of the Integrated Process Teams (IPT) that will execute the IMP, including documentation and reporting requirements. It also provides a definition of how we are going to manage the integration of IPT projects into the ISM. In short, how IPT members are going to communicate and collaborate with others in the organizations involved by the IMP rules and the IMS schedule. The objectives of this IMP document are to ensure the following: •

Interfaces and Responsibilities, Authority, and Accountability (RAA) between and among leadership and the working IPTs are well established. The extended team member participation includes an integration of key Columbia, EDD, and Con Edison personnel on all levels, including top management.

•

All project and major activities level work is clearly aligned with project drivers: HSE (Health, Safety, and Environmental), Cost and Value measures on all levels, Schedule and Time as a Value measure, and Improvement Quality (measured as well).

•

Risks are identified and risk mitigation plans developed.

The Edison program is dynamic in that the IMP is constantly being revised and updated according to discoveries by the various IPTs via weekly Leadership IPT interactions. The IMP document contains: •

Plans for the following: Engineering, process change, enforcement, metrics (what works and does not work), procurement (field and control centers), plan modifications, and start-up. Key project team members that are responsible for the execution create the detailed plans in the first place.

•

The Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) for all IPTs that, when combined, reflect the timing and coordination of executing on the IMP.

•

Organization charts and responsibilities for all levels of the project.

7


Organization The Edison program is divided into a set of subprojects that will be executed by working teams known as Integrated Process Teams (IPTs). The details of the IPT internal organization and structure are defined later.

Areas of Focus At the outset of this program we have defined the following initial list of team efforts: 1. Integrated System Model a. Plant Model b. Platform/Migration c. Schedule 2. Operational Management a. MECC Machine Learning Software development b. Cable Center (Transformer, Section, Joint, Manhole) Machine Learning Software Development 3. Work Process 4. Grid Optimization Additional sub IPTs have been developed to accomplish specific goals related to the Areas of focus above.

Methods These areas of focus will be developed according to procedures and methodologies known as the “Systems Engineering Approach” that will entail identifying and developing solutions, and generating the documents discussed in the next section.

Documentation Each subproject will be responsible for developing a set of documentation describing the process used in developing the products of the IPT on time and on cost, as well as the more traditional system and project management reporting documentation. These documents include: 1. Value Analysis and Baseline Metrics 2. Business Process Model – (in Business Process Modeling Notation, BPMN) a. Use case studies b. Functional Requirements 3. System Design 4. Test and Acceptance Plan 8

Integrated Master Plan These documents will be published on the CALM LifeRay portal website as they are developed. Business Process Model and System Requirements will be kept in the repositories established for the Intalio and Requirements applications, respectfully. BiWeekly IPT meetings are achived in LifeRay. An example of these meeting templates is displayed below and available in LifeRay folders under minutes. EXAMPLE CALM Meeting – Platform MIS IPT Meeting and Minutes

Meeting Date:

07/09/06

Conference Telephone #:

Strategic Planning Dial: 800-678-4500 Passcode: 5514647#

Place:

Tele-Conference

Facilitator:

Hubert Delany

Time:

10:00 am EST

Scribe:

Fred Seibel

Distribution and Attendee List: (X = IN Attendance) A

Eric Stewart (IR)

X

Hubert Delany (CU)

X

John Johnson (SP)

X

Fred Siebel (CU)

X

Chuck Lawson (CE)

X

Roger Anderson (CU)

AGENDA

1.

Follow-up from Test Bed discussion

2.

Outlook cycle for Sep

3.

Billing flowchart

4.

NA Invoicing experience

5.

Adding servers for Intalio

6.

Rally Dev - Demonstration

7.

LCA’s

Date/Time of Next Meeting: 10.00 am EST on Thursday 14th September Action Item(s): Action Item

Owner

Open Date

Item

9

Target Date

Resolut ion Date

Comme nts/ Status

Integrated Master Plan 2

HD

Who is doing Asset Input to Test Bed? Subject to EBO R&R and discussion with Global; unlikely to use C McKenzie

061009

061212

Open

4

HD/FS

Finalize MS Project Server. 5/9/06 Update : SC close to installing by RRB

061009

061212

Open

5

FS

Fred to arrange a meeting between this forum and Scheduling IPT with this same agenda.

061109

070512

Open

1.2.2.1 SI Transmission model Setup 3.2.3

Alpha ranking of feeder sections

IMS WBS

5/9/2006 Update Sched IPT meeting with Roger this week and will schedule a wider meeting for early next week

8

CU Resource Billing Template Ownership.

TBD

Update : still TBD pending Bus Office setup LR to complete for now

061009

Open

Open

9

TBD

How does this Process Tie Up with the True Up in 1.9.2 CALM validation of structure interface.

060809

10

ES

Following Motzel meeting AP to conduct a 2 hr workshop

061009

061202

Open

11

ES

Complete Billing Matrix for CU

061009

061212

Open

Closed Action Item(s): Action Item

Owner

1

FS

Item

Open Date

TargetD ate

Resoluti on Date

Comments / Status

Resolution in How are ARC’s and RRC accommodated outside the True Up for Physical Inventory? Red 060823 Can we bill from Day 1. Sent with these minutes after clarification of NA experience

060906

060907

Closed

3

RNA

Who owns this whole Process in AP ? Update: AVS commercial manager once established

060823

060901

060905

Closed

6

RNA

Shane to set a weekly meeting with this group to review progress. As agreed lets

060823

060901

060905

Closed

use PM IPT meeting for now

Organization of IPTs Though funding for this initiative comes from R&D, Electric Operations, Central Operations, and O&R, the members of these organizations are merged into interdisciplinary, multi-organizational groups along with specialists from Columbia University, EDD, and Strategic Planning. Each IPT has a team leader, who has responsibilities, accountability, and authority based on their internally developed Charters. The leader is charged with developing a detailed statement of work for each 10

Integrated Master Plan IPT. It should be emphasized that the IPTs are populated with working specialists, and there are no project managers within any of the IPTs. The leaders manage with the help of the CALM project management in the Leadership IPT. The document contains the names and contact information for each member of the IPTs organization.

The IPT Model Each Integrated Process Team (IPT) is a multi functional Organization with a documented charter and RAA (Responsibility, Accountability & Authority). It is based on a flat organizational structure linked to Product, Schedule, and Team Budgets/Resources. It is empowered through a clear and unambiguous RAA. The IPT is the foundation for requirements flow-down, Integrated System Model development/deployment, definition of the Economic Value Metrics System, Integrated Schedule coordination, and other metrics and management processes. Each is linked to the Leadership IPT and it has a disciplined organizational Change Management Plan.

Each IPT should strive to achieve the following: •

Each IPT leader needs to identify his or her customer, create a communication channel and use it frequently

•

Agree with the customer on how to measure program success at the IPT level 11

Integrated Master Plan •

Define perceptions, expectations and review requirements

•

Establish a measure of customer satisfaction index and pay attention to it

•

Share vision, mission, and goals

•

Communicate good news as well as problems

•

Know how and when to share bad news

•

Be prepared for customer reactions

•

Treat all people with fairness, trust, and respect

•

Work rather than hold meetings

We have defined three levels of working IPTs at the initiation of the CALM initiative. 1. There is a Leadership IPT that contains what would be traditionally thought of as the sponsors and project management. All IPT leaders are also included in the Leadership IPT. It makes modifications to the IMP and IMS, provides staffing and funding for the working IPTs, and conducts weekly briefings, monthly reviews of progress, and annual five and ten year planning sessions. 2. There are three primary working IPTs: Work Process, Operational Management and Integrated System Model teams. There are specialty support IPTs that answer to specific technical needs for each. These support IPTs come and go as needs are satisfied.

12


Integrated Planning Tasks of the IPTs All IPTs are to participate in the development of requirements, systems and changes to processes that are in the IMP. The following sections outline what an IPT is expected to contribute to the IMP in writing.

RAA (Responsibilities, Authority, and Accountability)

Responsibilities What are you responsible for (e g., development and production of all electrical splices for the XYZ system)?

Authority What is the extent of your authority (e g., The IPT leader has the following authority delegated by the program management, such as to obtain the necessary resources (people, materials, tools, etc.) to accomplished the said tasks described in an approved SOW)?

Accountability What are you accountable for ( e g., the on-time/on-cost delivery of xyz devices to the Z customer on XX Dec., 2007 with a budget of $XXM)? 13


Mission Write down based on your SOW: what you intend to do, e.g.., This XYZ IPT is responsible for the design, analysis, procurement, fabrication, test and qualification of the following products,…. This IPT will support system integration at the installation and check out…. This IPT will interface with X,Y, and Z, IPTs and provide the following data based on the IMS and IMP,…. Development of XZY product is NOT included. Included are other statements as appropriate and agreed upon with the Program Manager.

Major Milestones Include a chart of the major milestones that the IPT will use in planning their individual activities, along with the major milestones the IPT expects to meet during the first year.

Risk Management Each IPT will establish a process for mitigating medium to high risks. It includes ID, likelihood and consequence at each level; it includes suppliers and all teams and functions. Risk mitigation plans are drafted, analyzed, tracked, reviewed and mitigated at regular intervals until they are low risk. Risk Management eliminates uncertainty, it lowers consequences and allows the team to prepare and implement contingency plans. It minimizes or eliminates many risks. It highlights areas of uncertainty and false confidence. It helps in deciding on the best course of action.

Technical Performance Measures Each IPT will establish Technical Performance Measures (TPM’s). Key product performance capabilities are identified. Key lower level performance measures are identified and allocated to program IPTs. The program then calculates, allocates and tracks technical parameters given to subordinate teams. Measuring technical performance shows progress relative to satisfying customer requirements TPMs measurements pinpoints emerging lean achievements and deficiencies.

Affordability Each IPT will establish an on-going assessment of a program to ensure that it is being executed within customer planning and funding guidelines. It must have sufficient resources identified and approved, and is managed based on accurate cost and staffing data. Affordability requires an established program affordability plan and RAA, with targets for cost and effectiveness to achieve customer satisfaction.

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Integrated Process Team – Organization In the following sections we describe the working IPT’s and their support IPTs in terms of their: • • • • • •

Mission Scope Interfaces with Other Organizations Measures of Success Organization Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability

As the teams are formed and take on responsibility they will be charged with providing suggests on updating their section to be included in this document’s next revision. Below is the initial description for each IPT.

Leadership IPT Mission The Leadership IPT is made up of the leads of the other IPTs whose mission is to provide a channel for communication and coordination across the various IPTs. It also serves as a window into the functioning of the IPTs for Con Edison’s executive management team. The leadership IPT acts as a clearinghouse for acquiring the resources the CALM project needs to execute the overall mission. Scope The Leadership IPT has visibility into all the IPT’s. The Leadership IPT has a conference call every Thursday at 0900 to go over the prior weeks progress and issues. Each IPT is responsible to develop their IPT specific outline page to be submitted to the Electric Ops project manager no later than COB Tuesday prior to the Thursday Conference call. Interfaces with Other Organizations Each IPT will have representation on the Leadership IPT to communicate its progress and issues. Measures of Success Milestones with in the ISM being met on a timely basis and within budget. Customers being satisfied with progress towards CALM. Organization Made up of at least one representation from each IPT plus select number of advisors. Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability 15

Integrated Master Plan This Team is responsible for ensuring that the activities of the all the CALM teams are coordinated with each other and with the Con Edison personnel and organizations not assigned directly to the CALM projects. They are also charged with delivery of information to executives such as presentations.

Integrated System Model IPT Mission The mission of the Integrated System Model (ISM) Team is first and foremost to bring together the efforts of all the other IPTs in order to produce an integrated information, analytical, and optimizing resource to be used through out Con Edison’s organizations. This resource, the ISM, will enable Con Edison to practice the tenets of Lean Management, where actions to be taken, first have an associated metric that will provide an answer to the simple question: “Was the action successful?” The ISM provides the CA part of CALM. The ISM IPT mission is to direct the development of functional requirements for software development to meet the requirements of CALM for our business. Scope The technical scope of the ISM covers the Plant Model (PM), the Business Process Model (BPM), and Machine Learning (ML) and Optimization. The PM offers the company the ability to enter data once and only once and to find out what is going by being the navigator of information through out the company. The BPM captures the best practices of the company and ensures that operations of the business are performed according to these practices. In addition, it ensures that the outcomes of all actions taken are recorded. This enables the last step of CALM technology, ML and Optimization to discover the actions that led to improvements in the state of the company both in terms of hardware infrastructure but also in terms of eliminating inefficiencies on the way we work. The scheduling of these assets using all of ISM capabilities is another major scope of the ISM IPT since it entails the integration of all the CALM work throughout the entire company. Two major goals of the ISM will be: 1. to utilize the Plant Modeling platform provided by EDD as a component in the machine learning environment where the Plant Model can be viewed as a single point of access to the current status of the system and all its components and 2. to provide the simulator as an engine behind a set of optimizing planning and scheduling tools for operations and work activities. The tools will perform a multi-variable optimization trying to simultaneously achieve high reliability, low stress and minimize cost and time. Columbia will work with EDD to define the requirements for the interface to the plant model software, design, implement and test the interfaces needed to incorporate the machine learning and scheduling tools with the electric simulator. Another goal of the ISM is run time optimal operation of the future electric grid. A focus in CU’s proposed effort is optimal real time control of the grid under uncertainty.

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Integrated Master Plan The mathematical formalization of this type of problem leads to dynamic programming. The IPT will develop decision making agents that use approximate dynamic programming (i.e., reinforcement learning, RL, which is a kind of approximate dynamic programming). It is necessarily approximate because the large set of parameters makes exact solutions impractical. The focus of the ISM IPT will be to build this overarching approximate dynamic programming (RL) framework. The framework also unifies a financial engineering aspect for valuing flexibility (in real time) that will be built into the future grid – the option valuation a direct product of the approximate dynamic programming framework (RL). Interfaces with Other Organizations The ISM Team interacts with major portions of the CE organizations. Measures of Success Given that the whole rationale behind CALM in using measurements of the operations of the organization to provide inputs to process improvements, the measures of success of the ISM should be occurring on a continuous basis. Since we are committed to measuring the state both before and after each project we will have effectively a running score of our successes. The ultimate measure of success will be whether we have achieved the 50% savings in cost and time. Organization The ISM team, presently lead by Strategic Planning, until resources are made available, will have major representation from EDD, Con Edison and Columbia to bring the multiple software requirements and technologies together. Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability The ISM team shall be responsible for the requirements analysis, design, and implementation of the ISM. It shall plan the validation and testing of the work as it proceeds to implementation. It shall develop the plan for prototyping, piloting and finally the full-scale rollout of the ISM to the corporation. The ISM team shall have the authority and accountability of issuing the IMP and IMS revisions. Accountable to provide detailed software requirements as outlined in the IMS. Support IPTs for the ISM IPT

Plant Model IPT Mission Implement PM software across the entire CECONY service territory using members of Regional/Distribution Engineering and Central Engineering. Scope

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Integrated Master Plan Implementing PM software through contractual agreements with EDD, Inc. An engineer knowledgeable with existing engineering and operations systems will lead the project management of these COTS. Interfaces with Other Organizations Collaborate with Regional, Distribution Engineering, and Central Engineering personnel to extract existing data and make necessary revisions to this data to make the PM modeling software work correctly. Measures of Success Meeting milestones of your tasks within the ISM. Organization A member of Distribution Engineering and/or Central Engineering will lead this effort. Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability Responsible for the full and complete installation of PM COTS for the entire CECONY service territory. Authority in communicating all aspects of the software installation requirements as well as the project managing of this COTS installation. Accountable for maintaining detailed MS Project schedule milestones, tasks, resources allocation for installation of the PM. Accountable for the successful installation of the PM within budget.

Platform/Migration IPT Mission Support the needs of the other IPT's : providing the evaluation, selection, and maintenance of software tools to drive Systems Engineering processes and procedures. The charge includes data and data basing as well as management software to support Computer Aided Lean Management (CALM) within the other IPT's. Library and archive the software as well. Seek to minimize the “gap” from R&D to standard, supported, production software. – Ultimately, All software must be maintainable Consideration of commercialization outside Con Ed for all software of the overall project is to be the responsibility of this IPT at all times as well. Organizational threads that promote consistency and efficiency both within and between the other IPT's is also in this group’s charge: Standards: •

Communication and interoperability (usage) standards, (e.g. a common calendar among all -- Con Ed, Columbia and EDD)

•

Coding standards 18


Computer-Computer communication standards (protocols) to promote integration and interoperability

•

Making sure that Hardware and software sizing, speed, modularity, distribution, and security fits within the existing Con Ed procedures

•

Development of the portal for communication of all project functions like MS Project and Intalio servers.

Scope It is the primary developer of the source of information available for the other IPTs It contains program performance, cost, schedule, technical, risk, supplier’s data, action items, help needed in weekly, monthly and Quarterly status. It uses standardized and easy to understand formats, which color-coded, with defined thresholds, and they display trends and future predictions. Interface with Other Organizations The Platform IPT provides services to all the other IPTs through the procurement of hardware and software and by providing training and information services. Measures of Success The Platform IPT will be measured by the achievement of timely provision of equipment, software and training to other IPT’s. Organization This IPT is led by a Columbia technical manager and includes members from Columbia’s technical staff and Con Edison’s IR department. Responsibilities, Authority, and Accountability The Platform IPT will provide Risk Mitigation for the other teams by evaluating products being considered by the teams. The platform IPT will push out Best Practices of the above to the other IPT's (example is how to write, validate, archive, and version new software code in each language). Personnel /project plans (to be detailed weekly over 6 months, monthly over an additional 12 months) The platform IPT will maintain a common IPT Portal and the tools within. This IPT authorizes all Columbia purchases of computer hardware and software for other IPTs, Columbia then invoices CALM project at Con Ed and manages the computer budget for the overall project. This IPT is responsible for the proper training of other IPTs. Support the needs of the other IPT’s: providing the evaluation, selection, and maintenance of software tools to drive Systems Engineering processes and procedures. The charge includes data and data basing as well as management software to support 19

Integrated Master Plan Computer Aided Lean Management (CALM) within the other IPT's. Library and archive the software as well. Seek to minimize the “gap” from R&D to standard, supported, production software. – Ultimately, All software must be maintainable through a commercial entity. Consideration of commercialization outside Con Ed for all software of the overall project is to be the responsibility of this IPT at all times as well. Organizational threads that promote consistency and efficiency both within and between the other IPT's is also in this group’s charge: Standards: Communication and interoperability (usage) standards, (e.g. a common calendar among all -- Con Ed, Columbia and EDD Making sure that Hardware and software sizing, speed, modularity, distribution, and security fits within the existing Con Ed procedures

Dynamic Scheduler IPT The Dynamic Scheduler IPT is charged with the design and development of the Scheduler platform: • • • • • • • • •

A unified collaborative system for planning, tracking, and optimizing work The system must have complete visibility of the entire process set fourth by the company (not only pieces of it) The system should be used to drive the budget and corporate staffing requirements (proactively) so that the company does not start hiring more employees or modifying the budget when those resources are needed immediately System output should be sufficient to satisfy the requirements of each department that is part of the process including but not limited to: Engineering, Scheduling, Field Operations, Finance, and Purchasing (Assets) Can dynamically schedule work based on the following constraints: budget, staffing, specs for outages and seasonal work, specs for operating requirements, "biggest bang for the buck", city restrictions including parking, paving, and zoning. The system can incorporate work on any scale (from a multi-year network cut-over to a single burnout) by decomposing the project into small entities (i.e. the scale of work that can be designed on a single layout part) Each work entry must be tracked from the point that it is designed, as it is being worked on in the field, and finally updated on our mapping systems and asset repositories (full circle) The system should be able to forecast the amount of emergency work expected in the following work cycle, based on history. The system can do a risk-return (or cost-benefit) analysis for each piece of work by comparing the effect of doing the work on the present and future system health, the

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Integrated Master Plan present and future budget, and likelihood of completion given existing conditions and measurements of uncertainty.

Operational Management IPT Mission Discover control room operational risks, costs, and integration needs, and continuously iterate on the Columbia and EDD software (e.g. ML software) and existing CE software & data to develop Operation’s requirements and tools needed to operating the electric system in a safe, reliable and efficient manner. Scope Deal with all control room functionality focusing on the use of data in a strategic fashion in order to develop tools for decision support under adverse operating conditions. • • • • • •

Automate important Daily Electric Operations Reduce stress on the People managing the process Automate Maintenance Operations Workload balanced thru year Standardize Processes Evaluate operational planning and response to weather

Interfaces with Other Organizations •

Primarily interfaces with operational organizations and provides coordination with Information Resourses (IR).

Measures of Success For each project task, measurements of savings are developed with expectations of completion of these tasks that reduce costs. Organization Led by Operations experts, the organization includes members of Columbia and CE. Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability Responsible to analyze adverse operational conditions to discover needs for operational tools and visualization that can mitigate operational risks and costs. Authority to issue reports of findings to IPT members and executives as part of its discovery of operations requirements. Accountable to provide detailed requirements documents of software requirements for each iteration of software changes with user documentation and training. Support IPTs

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MECC IPT Develop a Machine Learning Decision Support System (DSS) for control centers that will deliver the following support to the OM IPT: * The DSS will use Columbia Machine Learning, which will track performance of the electric system daily, analyzing failures as they happen and re-ranking feeder susceptibility to impending failure every 20 minutes. The DSS will also report the 6 most likely attributes that contribute to the risk of failure. * The DSS will use Columbia Machine Learning – with information from 2 different live sources – continuously running WOLF in Manhattan and VDAMS in Brooklyn Queens to predict feeders and transformers susceptible to failure in the control centers this summer. * The DSS will provide real-time variances for transformers, nearby transformers, the feeders and their banded feeders. This will be available to operators and staff at the MECC and BQCC and their regional engineering groups to help preempt failures and aid as a preventative tool in their response to contingencies as they unfold. A team (2 at a time) of Columbia engineer/scientists/students and a company engineer/operator will be staffing a desk in the control centers – where these analyses will be made available during weekday peak load times. * The DSS will predict load, specific to each transformer, 12 hours in advance, and prioritize switch closures, provide cooling strategies and recommend possible de-loading to regional engineering and Operations. The DSS will then track the actions taken by Operations and record the system response to those actions. * We also have a DSS program for the Cable Center. For Underground network feeders, this has been used to rank all cable sections, joints and transformers according to their likelihood of failure. This will be used this summer – along with Reactance to Fault location (using PQ Nodes) to identify the most susceptible components in areas of likely faults. Together, these 2 techniques should help us find faults more quickly. Possible Susceptibility alarms are: – – – – – – – – – – –

Overloaded transformer Overheated transformer Change in feeder status Overloaded feeder Overloaded station Change in status of critical station equipment (bus section, breaker, etc…) Customer outages Formation of a new load pocket Critical/Sensitive major customer impacted by an event Phase imbalance detected Changes in transformer status such as Blows fuses and Open Network Protectors (low priority)

Proactively monitor the alarm log 22

Integrated Master Plan – –

Only show the most critical alarm for any given problem (i.e. if multiple alarms are generated for a given problem, filter to the root cause) The most critical system alarms should always be at the top of the list until they are resolved.

Each alarm comes with an action plan – – –

Automatically gathered list of information pertinent to making a decision List possible suggestions made by the system Cost benefit analysis performed for each suggestion

All active alarms should support – – –

Acknowledgement by the operator Indication of which action plan was taken (for learning) Indication of whether the alarm was helpful (for learning)

Operator has capability to filter alarms by category and priority

Cable Center IPT With the Cable Center, this support IPT is developing applied machine learning tools and techniques to rank transformers, cable sections and joints according to their susceptibility to failure. These ranking lists should be particularly useful for the PILC Cable and transformer Replacement Programs. Prediction of Good versus Bad cable sections and transformers has been developed using Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. The ranking lists provide instructive reference for the replacement priority for these components. The Cable Center IPT is also developing algorithms of survival analysis to predict timeto-event. Instead of simplifying targets to binary, good or bad, we intend to directly treat survival time as target. The cables for which we have not observed the event of interest (O/A) are said to provide censored data, equivalent to good cables in classification. All we know about these cables is that they have survived a certain length of time. On the contrary, the failed cables are uncensored data on which we have observed survival time. We can carry out a specialized regression on these censored and uncensored data, and then the prediction can also tell us how many components might fail in the next month rather than a ranking list only. We believe that this approach is superior to the classification approach, since we have utilized more information in learning. Preliminary results are very promising that strongly support the newly proposed approach.

S/S Protection Relays IPT Con Edison has decided to install a Target Information System (TIS) Hall Effect sensors throughout their substation electrical protection systems. The first installation is at Farragut Substation, which is currently in progress. The main reasons for this TIS project 23

Integrated Master Plan is to optimize the maintenance of these protection systems, provide a decision support tool to both reduce the time required to diagnose trip outs, and to verify the proper health, design basis, and calibration of this protection system on an ongoing basis. The data being collected in real time from the TIS has the potential of providing the technician, engineer and operator information to make the decisions that will improve system reliability and drive out inefficiencies in maintenance and operations, but both the amount of data and the diagnostics from this data to create decision making information are significant challenges to shepherd into a real time decision support software tool. The IPT will conduct multi phase research into developing a decision support system around the TIS. The Relays IPT will then support the OM IPT by investigating ways of culling data and developing decision aids from this data by using recent techniques from Data Mining and Machine Learning to exploit the TIS time series databases, and by doing so, discover decision making algorithms that can support the Battlefield Visibility System being developed by the OM IPT.

Manhole Events IPT The main goal of the Manhole events IPT is to assemble a unified database with information about each structure in the secondary network and to perform a detailed analysis of vulnerability at the level of structures and M&S plates. Machine Learning will be used to develop a ranking of the most likely manholes for smoking, fire, and stray voltage events. This will be fed into the OM IPT Battlefield Visibility System. A major sub-goal of the IPT is to assemble a database of structures, which can support the analysis of the secondary network. At this point, pertinent information about structures is scattered among several disparate databases, which the IPT will unify and standardize into a common format. For many structures in the secondary network (manholes, service boxes, etc.), we have information about the following kinds of events: l l l l

Electric shock events, stray voltage (from ESR/ENE database) Service failures (from ECS tickets, including ticket remarks) Manhole events (from ELIN database) Water conditions (from flush trucks)

Other data sources will provide explanatory variables, which may have an influence on the time between those events. For example, for manholes we can draw on the following information: l l l l l

The number and types of service cables The number and types of streetlight cables The number and types of mains cables The number and types of primary feeder cables and joints The schedule and status of inspections and pending repairs

As part of this effort, it will be important to determine the precise location of each structure to within a reasonable accuracy. Location information will open up access to many sources of information keyed by geographic coordinates, such as: l l

Elevation (from USGS elevation models) Distance to surface water (from NYC hydrographic map) 24

Integrated Master Plan l l l

Distance to underground water (from historical Viele map) Traffic patterns Micro-weather data

Additionally, we must take into account temporal correlations between certain types of events and external seasonal influences, such as load spikes; atmospheric events like thunderstorms, rain, snow and ice, etc.; and temperature cycles, on a both day-to-day and year-to-year scale. The challenge here lies in the fact that many different databases must be brought into a common format, so as to allow efficient querying across different information sources.

Time-to-event modeling of secondary events The main goal of this IPT is to identify the most vulnerable secondary structures in Manhattan, Brooklyn/Queens, and the Bronx. Our approach is based on time-to-event modeling (survival analysis), which predicts for each structure the expected time until the next event. Based on such predictions, it is easy to derive rankings of the most vulnerable structures, M&S plates, networks, etc. In the simplest case, when no explanatory variables are taken into account, time-to-event modeling amounts to estimating the unconditional mean time between events. In general, we need to model time-to-event as a function of the properties of a given structure, derived from the unified database described in the preceding section. Not only will this give us detailed predictions for each structure, but it will also allow us to identify factors that accelerate the time between failures. Analysis of data in a time-to-event model requires us to adapt existing machine learning algorithms to deal with the special requirements of this type of data. We need to be able to deal with the following issues algorithmically: l

l

l

l

Censored observations. These arise when intervals between failures are not fully observed. Most structures, for example, did not fail in the period of observation (1996 to present), so the only observation available for those structures is a lower bound on the time between failures. We have started to modify an existing machine learning algorithm (support vector regression) to deal with censored observations. Censored explanatory variables and errors in explanatory variables. These cases arise when properties of structures are not known with full accuracy. For example, for a structure that failed once in the period of observation, we cannot use the time since the previous failure as an explanatory variable, because the previous failure occurred before the start of the observation period. Again, only a lower bound is known. Missing observations. Not all attributes of a structure are observed. Attributes that are missing have to be imputed on the basis of the distribution of those attributes in similar structures. Periodic fluctuation of background hazard rate. It is clear, both anecdotally and from our previous studies in Phase 0, that there is a very strong effect of winter weather on secondary events. We will need to model the recurring periods of increased vulnerability (in the winter months, and to a much lesser extent during the summer) as part of this model, by adapting our previous study, which assumed 25


l

that on-line weather data or forecasts are available, to allow long-term forecasts of failures without the need for long-term weather forecasts. Geographic regions as predictive variables. We need ways to automatically identify geographic regions that have an effect on time-to-event. Using raw longitude or latitude coordinates will not suffice, since many models will then assume that vulnerability increases or decreases with increasing longitude or latitude, when such a scenario is quite implausible. Rather, the learning algorithm needs to discover spatial regions in the training data, instead of using raw measurements.

The combination of these issues requires novel algorithmic solutions, and we have already begun work on the first bullet point. However, progress can still be made without additional work on the other points, by using existing crude methods for dealing with imprecise or missing observations, in the simplest case by ignoring them. As solutions to the other bullet points are developed, they can be gradually phased into the models.

Exploratory Analysis of ECS Tickets Anecdotal evidence suggests that certain types of incidents reported in the remarks of an ECS ticket are indicative of serious problems, while being comparatively benign themselves. For example, if a customer reports “flickering lights”, these symptoms are relatively harmless, but they indicate that there is a serious problem, which may manifest itself in a less benign form soon. The IPT will conduct an exploratory analysis to uncover other potential precursors of serious problems. These precursors will take the form of words or phrases in the remarks of an ECS ticket, which show a significant correlation with events (stray voltage, manhole events, service outages, etc.) in the vicinity of the ticket within a few days after the ticket was initially opened. There are two major components to this investigation: First, we need to find candidate phrases in ECS tickets, which are potentially associated with future trouble. Second, we need to determine whether there is a significant association between the potential precursor and a subsequent type of events. The first challenge, finding candidate precursors, will be solved by working backwards in time from known events. For example, the IPT will consult the manhole events table in the unified database, and look for any tickets in the vicinity of a manhole event during the days leading up to that event. We will then identify frequently occurring words, word pairs, word triples, etc. in the initial portion of the remarks of the ECS tickets found in this process. This requires a certain amount of text processing: we want to identify the initial complaint in the ticket, usually found in the first few lines of the ticket; we need to expand abbreviations, normalize equivalent words, and discard uninformative words (like “power”); and we need to pool information across duplicate tickets. In the end we will have produced a set of candidate phrases, which are closely associated with the future presence of each type of event. In the second major step, we need to test the strength and significance of the association of the candidate phrases with future events. The strength of the association is easy to quantify as the probability of a future event given that a ticket containing the candidate phrase has been opened. In addition, we need to rule out spurious relationships: if the event itself is relatively frequent (e.g. manhole events during the Winter), the presence of the precursor phrase in a ticket may have nothing to do with the occurrence of the event. 26

Integrated Master Plan We will test the significance of the association in an observational study, where we pair neighborhoods, which have open tickets containing a candidate phrase with comparable neighborhoods, which lack such tickets. If we see a significantly greater number of target events in the first group than in the second group, this suggests that the presence of the candidate phrase is directly or indirectly related to the occurrence of those events. We will carry out both activities (generating candidate phrases, testing for significant associations) in parallel: since anecdotal evidence has already suggested one candidate phrase (“lights flickering” or “flickering lights”), we can develop software for automatically assessing the strength and significance of association while the search for other candidate phrases is underway.

Work Process IPT Mission Discover work processes that can be modified to drive near term value for the company through the deployment of BPM and develop all user requirements using Enterprise Value Stream Mapping and Analysis (EVSMA) lean methodologies. Scope Initial focus will be on processes that show immediate value to the company and are operations and maintenance related. Interfaces with Other Organizations Communicates with maintenance and operations organizations as well as shared services organizations to discover these work processes and develop the requirements. Measures of Success Being developed through the EVSMA lean methodology. Organization Primarily staff with key process managers from the field that are responsible to drive value from their maintenance and operations processes. Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability Responsible for all BPM pilots and BPM iterations for operations and maintenance. Authorized to discover the various work processes and develop detailed requirements for implementation of BPM. Accountable to develop BPM for processes identified through EVSMA and detailed in the IMS. Support IPTs

Cable Scrap IPT Issues:

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Out-of-stock occurs frequently. An analysis of orders, deliveries, and consumption may reveal patterns that might be used to prevent these out-ofstocks. Cable usage leaves amounts of salvage that may be higher than necessary

• Plan: • Assemble a team to identify and visit the knowledgeable Con Edison personnel to locate the data needed. • Acquire the forecast, order, delivery and consumption data. • Acquire cable cutting data (lengths used) and methods currently used to dispense cable to crews. • Analyze cable supply chain and see what procedural changes might be made to ensure a constant adequate supplies. • Analyze cable length data and dispensing mechanisms to discover opportunities for optimization both in planning and procedures. • Develop economic justifications for projects. • If “go” develop procedural modifications to cable supply chain management. • If “go” develop cable cutting optimization algorithm and implement procedures to dispense cable in an optimum fashion.

Alive on Backfeed IPT •

Detecting the source of each ABF event is of considerable concern in daily operations, especially in the summer. The ABF IPT will look into the cost benefits of a device at the S/Ss that allows signal pickup, with feeder not grounded. The IPT will revisit rules for operator – primary a suspect = likely source, primary b suspect = less likely is not very reliable at the moment. Also the drastic remediation applying 3 phase ground could be badly damaging the secondary. In B/Q, the IPT will look at the cost of damage versus getting signal thru RMS when feeder is de-energized. Finding a device at feeder cubicle S/S to be able to receive via pickup coil – current transformer is a high priority. Individual avg reporting times can be tracked to identify PLC path – more latency = problems before they happen? From 4 minutes to 15 min – pickup coil repair. Labor intensive to find the problem. Burning out limiters. Create more separations – secondary damage vs transformers cooking while leaving feeder ABF. Profile, 10 to 30% of the xfmrs still report…put the data to some use, thru sec path to another feeder. Cheap solution. Reducing xfmr life expectancy, and a few immediately burn out. What xfmrs found closed on ABF – bank ABF will cut TTF.

Plan: •

Gather better ABF data

•

Determine the amount of O&M absorbing crews from other work

•

Find a way to find trouble unit automatically and globally.

•

I&A crew time sent out to find bad RMS units…avoid 40 to 50 field visits 28


…any PQ transients show up on ABF… can location of ABF be detected by PQ?

Flush Truck Optimization IPT There are several issues surrounding flush trucks that suggest that their use could be optimized. • •

•

The first is a straightforward allocation across regions. To tackle this problem the IPT will need to collect some basic utilization data and then consider a reallocation to ensure that the workload is more balanced. The second involves the actual assignment of trucks to jobs. To tackle this problem we need to collect data on the timing and location of the calls for flush jobs. We also need to collect data on the position of the trucks throughout the day. With these data we can assess the effectiveness of the truck assignments. This analysis could lead to the development of an algorithm to better plan the assignments. The third is to analyze the non-emergency jobs and their locations throughout the day that may require a flush. When the density of possible jobs doesn’t match the truck density it may be possible to develop an algorithm that moves trucks even without explicit assignments to adjust the balance and therefore be more responsive when actual calls come in.

Plan: • Assemble a team to identify and visit the knowledgeable Con Edison personnel to locate the data needed. • Instrument a set of trucks with GPS units to get detailed time and position data. • Perform an analysis to identify current utilizations and what optimal utilizations might be. This analysis will be used to develop the economic basis for making a go/no-go decision on the project. • With a “go” decision develop the planning and scheduling algorithms that optimize the truck assignment and routing. • Develop process models needed to incorporate the scheduling/planning algorithms into the workflow.

Daily Sign-on IPT It takes several hours for crews to be signed-on to work on feeders. In an optimal world the crews could be signed-on by 8:30. Issues: •

This may be largely a procedural issue. Some additional data may be required to improve the procedures.

Plan:

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Integrated Master Plan • • •

• •

Develop the requirements for an ideal system that would accomplish the sign-on process that would shorten time and increase safety. Capture and model existing processes in Intalio. Analyze process in comparison to the ideal and identify opportunities for streamlining and/or enabling steps to be removed or achieved through automation. Reuse existing steps as appropriate either because of cost considerations if not ideal or if they are already optimized. Perform an economic analysis of savings achievable with the system derived above and compare to costs to implement. If a “go” implement the Intalio-based processes.

Grid Optimization (GO) IPT Mission The GO IPT will investigate using advanced hardware and software through a developed software ‘test bed’ to simulate aspects of the ISM. The test bed will also be used to develop a marketplace where autonomous software agents embedded in appliances and power controllers use a “price” signal from the grid in order to accomplish their goals (for example, keeping the food in the refrigerator from spoiling at the lowest cost). The GO will develop market models and simulations that will interface with the other simulations available in the CALM projects to explore a variety of operating scenarios (e.g. Fast Simulation). Through this effort guidance can be provided to industry to ensure that the most effective equipment becomes available when the infrastructure is available to support such a marketplace. Scope The GO IPT will have a broad scope in order to explore avenues that could lead to innovative results in developing the smart grid. Interfaces with Other Organizations The GO IPT will interface with Con Edison operations and control personnel, engineering personnel, technology ventures, appliance and power equipment manufacturers with Distribution Engineering taking a leading role in directing the research and development of the smart grid and simulation test bed to evaluate new equipment like switches. Measures of Success The success of this IPT will be based on the establishment of the consumer level marketplace and the improvements to distribution of power at lower cost through effective load management. Meeting of IMS milestones on a timely basis with deliverables that are valuable to the customer. Organization This IPT will be led by Columbia researchers and staffed by simulation and modeling experts, business analysts, Engineers, and alliance managers. 30

Integrated Master Plan Responsibility, Authority, and Accountability The GOCC IPT will be responsible to develop and deploy the simulation test bed needed to test out market agents and new equipment functionality such as distributed resources and curtailable load. The IPT will monitor advances on both the industrial and academic sides of consumer appliances and power management equipment.

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CALM Methods to be used by IPTs System Development Process We are using elements from the System Development Process as defined in Chapter 3 of “Systems Engineering”5 that includes the following project phases: Requirements Analysis, Functional Definition, Physical Definition, and Design Validation. In the engineering literature there are many views of the System Development Process with some focusing on the many stages of requirements analysis and definition, others focus on the stages of the product lifecycle. There are other views that emphasize the modeling required at each level to validate the requirements and that emphasize the development of independent testing programs that will be used to verify system performance and acceptance. Our goal is to take the best from all these views in order to meet the challenges presented by this dynamic evolutionary project we are embarking on. We will describe each of these phases in the following sections.

Top-Level flow diagram Requirements – ISM

Requirements Decomposition into IPTs

Functional Definitions

Functions Physical definitions

Splits –Ten year Stops & 2 year continues

Software Product Model Design Validation

Spiral

To Next Phase Figure 1. Systems Development Flow Process--The steps in the iterative process to build a system base on well understood engineering principles.

5 Kossiakoff, A and Sweet, W (2004) Systems Engineering. Wiley 32


Predecessor system

Organize & Analyze inputs

Clarify Correct & quantify

Requirements Analysis

Functional definition

Predecessor system Functional building blocks

Translate Into functions

Predecessor system Building blocks, technology

Previous analyses

Define Functional interactions

Synthesize System elements

Select Preferred design

Design Test environment

Physical definition

Simulate or test & analyze

Design validation

Figure 2. A view of the System Development Process illustrating the process and iterative steps in the process.

The diagram above further elaborates on the flow diagram indicating the iterative nature of the overall process. As requirements are refined in is often required to revisit the requirements established at a higher level when particular requirements are believed to be infeasible or when opportunities are discovered that suggest requirements could be expanded to offer more functionality. The goal is to ensure that requirements are kept in sync so that testing that is to be performed at all levels can be developed. At each stage in this process the artifacts of the analysis will be captured as a set of requirements. In addition design documents that map to the requirements will be developed.

Requirements Analysis Background The fact that this project exists implies that some initial requirements have been stated to the team. We will describe below how and why we will use a formal requirements definition methodology in this project. We will describe where we are in the process of requirements definition. The CALM project is actually a group of 1-3 year projects within a much larger project, the 10-year program. Very simply stated the goal of the 10-year vision is to ensure that 33

Integrated Master Plan Con Edison is operating its business 10 years from now with 100% improvement in efficiency, reliability and with reduced stress on its employees. We understand that the 10-year goal is not something that we can let a contract for today and have built the way we might expect to have a software application built based on a set of requirements that we could develop today. To further complicate matters it is our intention to continually evolve the 10-year project (a kind of virtual project) as we proceed so eventually as we drive hard on short-term successes it will become obvious that our project will become the model for a way of managing the business that ensures adaptability and operational innovation in an ongoing way. Therefore we are taking the approach that we should start with the traditional requirements definition methodology coupled with UML 2.06 (BPMN being one of the requirements development tools) to capture the customer’s short term AS IS and long term objectives. Using the methodology described later we will translate these statement of needs into a set of stakeholder requirements and then into system requirements. At this point we will use the set of requirements to guide the project team towards projects that are feasible to attempt in the near term and to identify those areas where we must wait for technology from outside sources and where we should pursue research to enable the future state we hope to achieve. Our initial analysis has discovered a small list of system wide features or sub-goals that we believe are required to achieve the ambitious goals of this project. These sub-goals are to remove barriers to communications across functional areas of the business and to provide a common tool for areas to use in order to see into the state of the grid. We must also enable the organization to be adaptive to changes in the environment from both external sources and internal factors resulting from the installation of new technologies. The initial requirements analysis has already led us to a subdivision of the project into sub projects each coming under the management of an IPT. The two IPTs that directly address the two sub-goals mentioned above are the Work Process IPT that is looking to provide tools to streamline processes within and across functional areas. The Integrated System Model (ISM) IPT is charged with defining and developing a simulation model of the business including all components from the plant model. This should ultimately address the requirement to have a commonly accessible repository for the state of the system and the requirement for a tool that will provide decision support capabilities for operational personnel.

6

Using UML – Software Engineering with Objects and Components by Perdita Stevens – 2nd addition 2006

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Methodology We will follow the System Development Process described in “Requirements Engineering”7 which differs somewhat from the process model described above because of the focus on requirements.

System Development Process

Statement of Needs

Develop Stakeholder Requirements

Use Model

Develop System Requirements

Abstract Model

Problem Domain

Stakeholder Requirements

System Requirements

System Component Requirements (Subsystem Requirements)

Subsystem Component Requirements (Lower Level Subsystem Requirements)

Develop System Design

System Design Architecture

Develop Subsystem Design

Subsystem Design Architecture

Solution Domain

Figure 3. The System Development Process viewed from the requirements perspective

For both the levels of requirements we will use the requirements tool and the Intalio BPMN tool as the requirements management tools of choice. The BPMN requirement tool is more than just a writing of the requirements, it’s the software system to run the process, which in effect means that you are creating the requirements and the software program of the AS IS process at the same time. Iterations and testing of the business process is a very iterative approach when it comes to capturing and deploying the AS IS work process. We have to adapt the requirements approach to the two time horizons of this project, the 10-year goal and the short-term AS IS, get quick ROI results, projects (less than 2 years). For the 10-year requirements some of which are discussed earlier we will work our way down from statement of needs to the identification of System Components. We will assess the feasibility, cost and value returned to identify those components that merit the

7Hull E, Jackson K, and Dick J (2005) Requirements Engineering, Springer 35

Integrated Master Plan establishment of an IPT to investigate further and make recommendations to proceed or stop. For those components that offer high value but may not be feasible we will assess whether feasibility might become achievable through research. Once these projects are identified and approved by Project Management, the individual projects will proceed to the top of the System Development Process where the Statement of Needs will have been developed through the top-level requirements analysis. It will be the responsibility of each IPT to perform the requirements analysis and maintain the requirements database for that project. The IPT will develop the system requirements in an ideal world without the constraints imposed by existing subsystems and processes in order to understand what the true system requirements are. An as-is map of the system will also be developed. An assessment will be performed to assess the feasibility of either a replacement or an improvement project. In either case a major objective will be to develop a system that will reinforce the overall effort to operate the Con Edison systems in a lean manner. Either a replacement or improvement project will be assessed against the objectives of the overall project: reducing costs, removing time, and increasing reliability. As these near-term projects mature we will continually evaluate them to ensure that they are not only meeting the near-term requirements, but that they are also addressing the requirements of the 10-year requirements. Benefits The benefits of this approach are two-fold. The first is that the short-term projects will have a high probability of success and quick ROI, as we will be following the best practices for developing systems that work now. The second is that we will be able to incorporate the lessons and functionality provided by the short-term projects as we continually evolve the 10-year requirements. Unlike a traditional project where the modification of the top level goals requires a significant change management procedure because changes in top-level requirements heavily impact what is being built, the changes we will be making to the 10-year requirements will be done with an eye to guiding future short-term projects as well as assessing how well that short-term projects are supporting the evolving 10-year goals.

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Evolutionary Requirements for Evolutionary software Future Domain ISM needs

ISM Requirements satisfaction Operating on multiple time horizons Requirements for Project

Near Term Requirements satisfaction

Existing business needs Existing Domain

Figure 4. Evolutionary Requirements Definition--illustrating how we combine the 1 to 2-year and 10-year timescales.

The future domain represents the state we would like to be in 10 years and how that state can be used to derive requirements down to the System level During the design process modeling and analysis can be performed to help guide the design process using the formal requirements as inputs to this process. For example in the following figure the ISM can be used to model at various levels of the requirements hierarchy, the Goal/Usage (including BPMN), Functional, and Performance.

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Figure 5. The flow between Requirements Management and Modeling and Analysis--Models are needed to verify the correctness of the analysis decisions.

The management of requirements forms the basis for determining whether the developed system actually meets the requirements specified earlier in the development process. The requirements form the basis for building test suites that are used to validate the behavior and performance of the system. Testing at all levels against the requirements shown in the next figure helps ensure the quality of delivered system both in terms of what it does and how well it does it.

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Figure 6. Spiral development

The multiple requirements approach of using 1 to 2 year, and 10-year, approaches works because software can be molded as an iterative process over time as long as it has the optionality in the beginning to expand to meet the longer term goal. Therefore, a more expedient type of requirements mapping such as agile software development can be used for the 1 to 2 year solving of existing business needs, yet a very robust Systems Engineering approach can be used for the 10 year requirements of the overall ISM. The reality is you never reach the 10-year requirement, but rather expand the realm of opportunity and continuously evolve the 10-year plan to keep you focused on what you need to develop in the near term to enable the future development of the ever-evolving ISM. This methodology is a pull to today’s efforts. You always have a ten-year plan and it provides job security for the planner of requirements (if you read this and laughed proceed), thus enabling the research and develop where you believe you will need it in future years. This is a way to implement a long-term goal with continuous payback, ROI, upfront as proof that it is working. Strategies change over time and so will the requirements as the future vision evolves, thus minimizing the risk of not meeting the challenges of the future. We’ve identified the major components of the ISM and have developed IPTs to focus on the near term requirements of the business while being cognizant of the much greater effort of the ISM IPT that is developing the requirements and strategy for achieving the 10-year goals and objectives. 39


Requirements Analysis Statement of Needs Requirements Definition is the first step of the System Development Process that answers the question, “Why are we doing this project”. What are the business/customer needs that the project is going to satisfy? In this project and many others the need is stated in terms of saving money, improving productivity, increasing customer satisfaction (reliability) etc. by management who are in general not intended to be users of the system. An important point to note is that the requirements that have been placed on the systems that are currently being used to run the business are an important contributor to the requirements that we will be developing. Or stated another way the statement of needs includes the need to continue to run the business. As stated elsewhere we are not building an airplane but trying to improve the one we have while it is in the air.

Stakeholder Requirements At this level of requirements definition we identify the systems or functional areas that need to be modified or enhanced. From this analysis we decide on the projects we would like to undertake to meet the needs. We will use maintenance as an example of a functional area to illustrate the following steps in requirements definition. We then identify the stakeholders in the selected functional areas that can define what their needs are that can help meet the needs. In maintenance, we expect to hear that they need tools to help them perform more effective preventive maintenance to improve reliability. They may also need to produce better schedules for work crews in order to reduce wasted time and thereby address the need to lower costs. During the process of developing stakeholder requirements it is important to develop a set of scenarios and use cases that both help in the development process by describing the user’s needs in language that they can easily understand (language of the problem domain) and have these requirements for software development. The value of these scenarios to the requirements developers lie in the clues they provide to perhaps unstated requirements. These scenarios do not represent the requirements themselves because they are intended to illustrate only a set of particular paths through what may be a large set of conditional decision points. They are invaluable for identifying the points where decisions are being made. Ultimately they can guide the system testers in the design of tests that can be used to exercise the system. Use cases are a form of scenario that examines in more detail how a user might actually be using a system. What screens and forms they need to see and what controls they need to effect their decisions.

Functional Definition Functional analysis and allocation is the process where the basic building blocks needed to satisfy the needs are developed. Each of the system functions that must be addressed is identified and the requirements that the function satisfies is established and recorded in 40

Integrated Master Plan the requirements tracking system. Once these system building blocks are identified it then becomes possible to perform trade-off analyses to assess which of many alternate best satisfies the requirements against a measure of the costs or complexities introduced for each alternative. At this stage the integration of these building blocks is undertaken in order to identify the interfaces between functions that are required and the external interactions with other systems or people that will be required.

System Requirements At this level we begin to move from the problem domain to the solution domain. We develop requirements for possible tools or perhaps business process changes that could address the stakeholders’ needs. Continuing with the maintenance example we could consider the types of tools that might lead to improved reliability. These could include analytic tools to help identify components that would benefit the system most if maintained, or database tools that coupled with advanced sensors to better monitor and report the health of components. On the scheduling side, computer-based optimizing schedule builders might be able to squeeze wasted time out of the system or perhaps better data communications between supervisors and technicians could reduce errors and inefficiencies.

Physical Definition During physical definition specific hardware and software are identified that can provide the concrete solutions to provide the required functionality. Again as above these is the phase where alternative approaches are explored and evaluated. Trade-off studies to evaluate the effectiveness of particular solutions should be done. Keep in mind that this is point to evaluate total lifecycle costs. What costs would a solution incur from an initial purchase, customization, integration, and maintenance perspective. Other dimensions besides cost such as future flexibility, scalability and risk should also be considered. We should ensure that: •

all viable alternatives should be considered

•

evaluation criteria are established

•

criteria are prioritized and quantified when practicable.

Subsystem/Components Requirements At this level the systems are further broken down into the types of subsystems or components that would need to be assembled in order to solve the system level problem. For an analytic tool to assist in preventative maintenance, a database of historical data and current operational data for electric components would be needed. A machine learning algorithm that would process the data and identify and prioritize maintenance activities would be identified. Reports or operator interface tools would be needed to communicate analytical results so that actions could be taken and finally a data collection system that would measure the results of the actions taken to determine the effectiveness 41

Integrated Master Plan of the new system would be needed. Also at this level particular scheduling approaches and packages would be evaluated and decided upon.

Design Validation For large complex systems it may be necessary to build a system test environment that can be used at many stages of the design and development process to perform unit testing, system test before the system can be tested in the production environment. In many critical applications, as much budgeted for design and system may be needed for designing and building the test environment. When applications are deemed less critical it is still mandatory that the requirements developers define the tests that need to be developed at each level of requirements definition to ensure system compliance.

Acceptance Plan Will be developed after usage studies are complete. Within the collaboration framework, acceptance plans will be part of the requirements development that indicate what is an acceptable solution that satisfies the user’s problem as discovered in the captured problem domain analysis such as a use case goal. Normally the acceptance plan is detailed between the development of users requirements and functional requirements development.

Change Management

Testing Testing will be an iterative process for these systems and is an integral reason for establishing SMEs on the various IPTs.

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Documentation Value Analysis One of the major components of the CALM methodology is the measurement of performance indicators as a means to enable operational innovation. There are many popular themes that are out in the business world to formally state how value will be achieved through changes in the way we plan and do work. Michael Hammer with his re-engineering ideas, or Deming’s wheel of Plan, Do, Check, Act, or six sigma’s DMAIC of Define, Measure, Analyze, Investigate and Act, or Stanford’s others… all have in common an adaptable organization that can sense a need to change and then change. Part of our ability to “sense” a need to change is the ability to measure our performance and to measure our environment in which we do business. An adaptable organization makes changes and maintains those that succeed and rejects those that don’t perform well. This is what we call operational innovation. In the initiation of any project that attempts to change its environment, there must be a way to “sense” whether results have been beneficial or detrimental or whether the change actually was implemented in the first place. Without both the change being implemented and the results being positive, success of the project cannot be guaranteed. IPTs shall develop an Enterprise Value Stream Mapping and Analysis (EVSMA) document. Each IPT will be responsible to develop performance indices that will provide the baseline metrics that will determine the level of success that there specific initiatives will be measured to determine success. Part of the Leadership IPT responsibility will be to review the creation of these metrics and to monitor the success of these metrics. Any initiative that is proposed has to be measured by what type of value can potentially be achieved and what metrics will be used to monitor the success of attempting to achieve this value. There are two types of indicators. One indicator type is a clear indicator of cost savings such as costs per widget or time spent per widget. While other indicators are more directional in nature and tend to confirm levels of success. An example of value analysis is the work being performed at the Cable Center for prioritization of cable replacement. ML susceptibility is being measured and validated by the use of ROC curves and the curve that indicates the overall failure rate of cable. Using regulatory economics (e.g. ratepayer impact methodology), a cost of deferral metric can be developed from a ratepayer perspective that can show value to ratepayers. Another example of a metric for the success of removing the correct cable out of the ground as a result of the ML susceptibility would not just be the number of emergency calls reduced but a reduction on an indexed number of emergencies calls on a particular type of cable for miles installed. The metric would need to be normalized to the miles of cable and normalized per units of time. There then needs to be a method of monetizing 43

Integrated Master Plan how this index affects the cost of doing business versus the baseline way of doing business originally. This comes from the initial value analysis that determines the size of expenditures in this area before the start of the project and projected the value in attempting to reach sensible goals that are in these performance metrics. There are going to be more ideas to do great things then resources available to chase them down. This value analysis with associated costs to achieve and performance metrics developed prior to the decision to move forward with a project will support the optimization of resources where they’ll have the biggest bang for the buck. For each one the goals below we will identify the baseline metrics from which to measure our success in terms of adding enterprise value. Some goals may not provide low risk fast paybacks that create significant value for the level of effort to achieve the goals. The portfolio of projects will need to be analyzed to optimize many of the dimensions of value and the prioritization will be a combination of value and time precedence to get to the ultimate moon shot of CALM throughout the entire company. This is a responsibility of the leadership IPT. The EVSMA section of this document contains the description of this lean methodology being used to discover and develop the BPM requirements.

Business Process Modeling Given the direction of the ISM plan, the IPTs will develop in Intalio the AS IS state of affairs as it relates to the work processes and other operational processes. The intent of mapping the AS IS in Intalio is to map out the present processes in order to achieve early wins by identifying holes in these processes that can be modified instantly without installing software of any kind. The second step is to use the Intalio model to assess costs, time, stress, etc that can be used as baseline metrics for performing value analyses of what is achievable, where it’s achievable, and how much is achievable so that improvements can be prioritized and disseminated to the various IPTs. In the course of developing the Intalio model data that would be useful but not currently measured can be identified and incorporated into the requirements for the system requirements. If we were to map out any process that presently has to be developed in a spreadsheet and sent out to various people in the organization, we need to identify these transactions of knowledge, include them in forms, enable the analysis through the ISM, and make it part of the standard knowledge sharing protocol of CALM. Identification of better ways of analyzing this information through machine learning or other computational algorithms will also be discovered and included in the ISM R&D, this being another type of requirements discovery/development for the ISM. Use Case Studies Use case studies are the problem domain requirements development model of choice. The reasoning for this is the goals of every stakeholder are vetted and may be over looked and not included if say BPMN is the only modeling tool used to develop the system requirements. An example of a use case study is show below. Note the simple documentation style that can be clearly and quickly understood for each scenario. 44

Integrated Master Plan +++EXAMPLE+++ Use Case: Verify Operation within Design Basis Version 1.0

Author: Robert Broadwater

Summary: Control room operation (CR Ops) personnel investigate existing and/or forecasted system problems. Actors: CR Ops (Control Room Operation personnel), PM-RTCS (PM Real Time Circuit Server), PM-SMS (PM Study Mode Server), TM (Terrain Map), DA&V (Data Analysis & Visualization), AVS, DMI, ML (Machine Learning) Primary Actor: CR Ops Precondition: PM-RTCS has 2 hours of SCADA system measurement history stored. Primary Scenario: CR Ops Queries Terrain Map and PM-SMS Concerning Problems 1. CR Ops goes to TM and requests severity order listing of existing/approaching problems from 2 hours past to 2 hours into the future 2. TM requests PM-SMS to provide severity order listing of existing/approaching problems from 2 hours past to 2 hours into the future 3. PM-SMS copies system from PM-RTCS, performs analysis, and provides list to TM 4. TM displays list to CR Ops 5. CR Ops selects problem for which additional graphical information is desired 6. TM requests PM-SMS to provide desired graphical information 7. PM-SMS passes data to DA&V and AVS and requests them to display graphical information to CR Ops 8. AVS displays voltages and currents on schematic, coloring schematic as to selected operational variable ranges 9. DA&V displays time varying plots of voltage, current, and load values for major equipment types selected for such display 10. CR Ops reviews displays and requests PM-SMS to make operational suggestions relative to selected problem

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Integrated Master Plan 11. PM-SMS performs analysis of problem, makes selected changes to study mode model, and requests DA&V and AVS to display new and/or comparison of graphical information to CR Ops 12. AVS displays predicted voltages and currents on schematic, coloring schematic as to selected operational variable ranges 13. DA&V displays comparison of time varying plots of voltage, current, and load values, where comparison is made between no action and implementing PM suggestions 14. CR Ops evaluates graphical displays Postcondition: Existing and/or forecasted problems are displayed to operator along with analysis of suggested operational actions. Constraints: +++END EXAMPLE+++ BPMN notation can be a supplement to the use case, but for areas of decision-making where an operator may have to look at various systems and has a specific goal in mind, or multiple goals, the use case study can capture these “Practices” in logic that are in the operators mind and can’t be capture with BPMN. These soft side goals from the problem domain require use case studies for these practices of human intelligence and are pretty strait forward. Also note, the goals and plans section of this document use a form of use cases to indicate the goals, actors and precedence of planned work.

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Schedule The Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) is a master schedule of all work that is being planned or executed for all the IPTs. The IMS is developed and modified by the project manager. Updates on progress of work are submitted by the various IPT leaders for their IPT organization. It will be the responsibility of the various IPT organizations to update levels of accomplishment and resource spent for each task in the IMS at the COB Friday of every week. Metrics will then be developed on this update to flag potential issues with the schedule and the associated resources. At this time, the IMP is in draft form and the IMS is being developed as the IMP is made final with the expected commitment of resources. Project Management Tools MS Project 2003 is being used as the project management tool and is available through the LifeRay portal. The Integrated Master Schedule will be developed with resource loading to achieve the plan in the planning section of this document.

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Integrated Master Plan Training Training provided is presently PM training, Intalio training, Use case studies training and involves the use of professionals to teach courses. Additional training will be provided in requirements engineering, systems engineering, project management and IPT best practices. Potential training from Columbia University has been reviewed and upon approval to proceed, a detailed plan will be created and part of the IMP to enable IPT members to attend these pre-designed courses on computer science and industrial engineering. The Platform IPT is charged with coordinating the logistics of this training decided by the Leadership IPT.

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List of IPTs Leadership IPT John Mucci

John Johnson

Bob Blick

Tom Tetlow

Mark Cousins

Hubert Delany

Mark Mastrocinque

Dave Waltz

Maggie Chow

Albert Boulanger

Robert Broadwater

Roger Anderson

Glen Malysz

Serena Lee

Fred Siebel

Roger Anderson

Dave Waltz

Grid Optimization John Johnson

Albert Boulanger

Larry Nardo

Carey Pshena

Operations Management Bob Blick

Roger Anderson

Mark Mastrocinque

Glen Calabrese

Leon Bukhman

Chuck Lawson

John Johnson

Pete Hoffman

Dave Waltz

Albert Boulanger

Maggie Chow

Julia Li

Ken Needelman

Maggie Chow

Glen Malysz

Work Process - BPM Tom Tetlow

Fred Seibel

Hubert Delany

Roger Anderson

Glen Calabrese

Bob Blick

John Johnson

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Integrated Master Plan Integrated System Model (ISM) John Johnson

Sean Eagleton

Albert Boulanger

Serena Lee

Robert Broadwater

Charlie Scirbona

Dave Waltz

Maggie Chow

Robert Broadwater

Leon Bukhman John Johnson

Andy Woo

Maggie Chow

Albert Boulanger

Fred Seibel

Roger Anderson

Plant Model (PM) Serena Lee

Matt Koenig

IR Rep.

MIS Platform/Migration Mark Cousins

Hubert Delany

John Johnson

In addition to the IPTs above, there are sub-IPTs that operate under the these IPTs for the MECC and the Cable Center and are a vital part of the IPT organization. Columbia Machine Learning MECC IPT – Under OP IPT Albert Boulanger

Phil Gross

Roger Anderson

Chuck Lawson

Marta Arias

Hilda Becker

Mark Matrocinque

Leon Bukhman

Sergie Sigelman

Serena Lee

Scott Nied

Charles Davoren

Ansaf Schedule (Sched) – Under ISM IPT John Johnson

Chris Procker

Fred Seibel

Tom Tetlow

Leon Buhkman

Roger 50

Integrated Master Plan Anderson

Columbia Cable Center/Secondary IPT – Under OP IPT Albert Boulanger

Martin Jansche

Chu Wei

Ansaf

Chris Murphy

Chuck Lawson

Frank Doherty

Bill Fairechio

Dave Waltz

Gail Kaiser

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EVSMA procedure Below is the template that should be followed by IPTs and management to include and execute future work into the Edison program using lean principles.

Template State the Problem 1. Create the problem statement for this project. 2. State the goals of this project and explain how these goals help achieve the CALM goals shown below. 3. State the potential benefits to the enterprise that the execution of this project should produce. Try to be specific in terms of costs in time and dollars. 4. State the champion (the person with the responsibility, authority and accountability) for the project. Identify the resources needed to accomplish the project during the following phases: discovery, analysis, prototyping and implementation. 5. State the estimated time frames for each phase. 6. Develop the Use Case Studies for this project. 7. Create a mission statement. 8. List the goals, sub-goals that are needed to achieve the mission 9. List the stakeholders (participants) that are going to achieve the goals. 10. Develop scenarios describing how the participants will operate the system to achieve these goals. 11. Develop an analysis plan that will be used to verify that achieving the project goals will indeed assist in achieving the enterprise goals. 12. Describe Stakeholders, Processes, and Metrics 13. State the scope of the project and what is out of the scope of this project. 14. Identify the stakeholders associated with this project and how this project impacts the stakeholders. 15. Map out the as-is work processes in Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN) that impact this project’s goals. 16. Identify the data as defined in the analysis plan that will be used to assess the performance of the current system/operation. 17. Identify the metrics that will be used to determine whether the project’s goals have been achieved when the project in complete.

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Construct Current State Perspectives 1. Collect artifacts that can be used to define the current state of affairs in the system being examined. For example these can include procedural manuals, training documents and in many cases forms and screenshots that capture current user interactions with the system. 2. Develop the scenarios that describe how the system is currently used and how it interacts with the rest of the enterprise.

Identify Enterprise Opportunities 1. Assess the opportunities for moving the system towards the project goals by developing a model of what the current state is and what the future state might be based on the collected data and documented processes. 2. Assess whether the goals of the CALM project are being achieved. By comparing the current state and future state models, the differences should reveal where waste and inefficiencies in the current state can be addressed to increase enterprise value.

Describe Future State Vision Develop a vision statement describing how the future state will look and behave.

Create Transformation Plan 1. Analyze the differences between the current state and future state to develop the requirements for the future state system. 2. Enumerate for example what new systems, new data collection, and process changes that will be required. 3. State the description of the products and services that will be delivered by implementing this project. 4. Develop a plan to produce and integrate these new capabilities into the existing organization. 5. Develop a cost estimate to implement this project 6. Develop a refined benefits analysis for implementing the project 7. Define a set of metrics for each step in the transformation that can be used to ensure that the goals of the project are being met. In keeping with the CALM philosophy these measurements and analyses can be used to develop mid-course corrections to the plan in order to ensure that the long-term project and enterprise goals are achieved.

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Detailed Project Plan Overview Below are the five primary goals to be accomplished through the CALM program. This is where the work of the IPTs is integrated into the CALM System.

Edison Program - Goals Develop Smart Grid Grid Optimization

Create Collaborative Environment

Provide Decision Aids Operations Management

Integrated System Model

Optimize Asset Management

Improve Business Efficiency

Predict & Prioritize

Work Process

These five goals are broken out into more detailed goals and plans for these goals are then discussed to explain what the program is attempting to achieve. It is through this project plan below, linked to an explicit strategic goal, that the IMS is developed with its associated precedence of work. The goals above are connected by dashed arrows indicating dependency of another goal. In this case, “Develop Smart Grid”, “Provide Decision Aids”, and “Improve Business Efficiency” are dependent on the “Create Collaborative Environment”. This is a form of Use Cases being used for planning of this program. Also note, each goal has one or more IPTs that are focused primarily on one of these major goals. Below are goals and associated plans derived from the goals above. The overall plan is assembled into CALM’s reference implementation of the Integrated System Model as indicated in the below figure.

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Before we go through the goals and plans, the follow synonyms for organizations and systems are used for the various goals.

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With an addition definition,

Explanation of the WBS Activities The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) activities represented in this IMP are coordinated with the IMS via numeric digits as follows: #.#.#.#.#. = Goal, Sub-goal, task, subtask, etc.

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1. Create Collaborative Environment

The primary organization in charge of creating the plan for a collaborative environment is the CALM BA. Below are the sub goals required to create this collaborative environment. Use Case diagrams will be presented were clarification of goals and associated precedence is needed.

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1.1.

Build ISM Collaborative Environment

Plan: Summary: CU works with CALM to develop Portal for collaboration Starting point: Files from project in CALM collaboration site Steps: 1.1.1. CU develops strawman one line for portal to include BPM, MS Project, LifeRay file storage and requirements software. 1.1.2. Platform IPT approves plan of pilot portal to be used by CALM team. 1.1.3. CU acquires software for MS Project Server and installs on Server 1.1.4. CU acquires Requirements software, makes revisions and installs on server. 1.1.5. CU acquires Business Process Modeling (BPM) software and install on server. 1.1.6. CU connects software through LifeRay portal. 1.1.7. Platform IPT reviews portal plan and results Importance: CALM team needs collaborative tools to work efficiently. Priority: Medium

1.2.

Build Transmission System PM

Plan: Summary: EDD works with Columbia and Con Edison groups to acquire links to Transmission data sets that need to be queried relative to the PM Starting point: Data set to be tied to plant model is available via con Edison computer network Steps: 1.2.1. EDD identifies and prioritize data links for connectivity to Plant Model. 1.2.2. Transmission Planning provides links to EDD 1.2.3. EDD is going to design interface to data set and review interface with CALM PM IPT. 1.2.4. EDD builds interface with data set 1.2.5. EDD builds S/S model 1.2.6. CALM PM IPT validates interface 1.2.7. CALM PM IPT publishes interface and documentation to Liferay collaboration website. 58

Integrated Master Plan Importance: Links to Transmission data important to have a continuously updated model. Priority: Medium

1.3.

Develop Transmission 900 Diagram input data BPM

Plan: - Not in present scope Summary: BPM enabled for entering of 900 diagram information data base. Starting point: BPM server up and running Steps: 1.3.1. CALM WP IPT goes to Transmission Planning supports develop of BPM requirements 1.3.2. CALM WP IPT develops AS IS process diagram for entering data into PM. 1.3.3. CALM WP IPT implements BPM and validates it use. Importance: Quality of data input to the 900 diagram is very important, but is presently being done with minor modifications made to the 900 diagram with clear revisions on one diagram that can enable a procedure to get same results in the near term if TP decides to create. Priority: low

1.4.

Build Primary and Secondary PM

Plan: Summary: EDD works with DE to extract Primary and Secondary feeder information Starting point: Data available from DE Steps: 1.4.1. EDD goes to DE and gets data. 1.4.2. DE supports extraction. 1.4.3. DE validates model Importance: Critical path to validating PM modeling of a network, which then sets off LIC Network Priority: High

1.5.

Build interface to Load Data

Plan: Summary: EDD works with DE to extract load data 59

Integrated Master Plan Starting point: Data available from DE Steps: 1.5.1. EDD goes to DE and gets data. 1.5.2. DE supports extraction. 1.5.3. DE validates model Importance: Critical path to validating PM modeling of a network, which then sets off LIC Network Priority: High

1.6.

Build S/S Model

Plan: Summary: EDD works with Central Engineering to extract data Starting point: Data available from CE Steps: 1.6.1. EDD goes to CE and gets data. 1.6.2. CE supports extraction. 1.6.3. CE validates model Importance: Critical path to validating PM modeling of a network, which then sets off LIC Network. Priority: High

1.7.

Build net RMS Interface

Plan: Summary: EDD works with CALM and IR to develop interface Starting point: Data available on Con Edison Network Steps: 1.7.1. EDD goes to CALM and IR to develop interface. 1.7.2. CALM coordinates interface requirements 1.7.3. EDD develops interface software 1.7.4. CALM validates interface with IR Importance: Net RMS will be used for the secondary modeling adjustments. Will also be used for transformer loading and load variance calculation and Columbia transformer load variance visualization through PM model. Also, required for machine learning to extract this data for its variance calculations on each transformer and build real time transformer susceptibility. 60

Integrated Master Plan Priority: High

1.8.

Validate Model

Plan: Summary: CALM validates model Starting point: Network model data and modeling complete by EDD Steps: 1.8.1. EDD notifies completion of modeling 1.8.2. DE validates with EDD Importance: Net RMS will be used for the secondary modeling adjustments. Will also be used for transformer loading and load variance calculation and Columbia transformer load variance visualization through PM model. Also, required for machine learning to extract this data for its variance calculations on each transformer and build real time transformer susceptibility. Priority: High

1.9.

Build Interfaces to Structures

Plan: Summary: EDD works with DE to get Manhole and service box data locations Starting point: Data available on Con Edison Network Steps: 1.9.1. EDD extracts data 1.9.2. CALM validates 1.9.3. EDD creates interface to allow update to structures in PM as changes occur 1.9.4. CALM validates Importance: Structures locations will be valuable in painting PM onto terrain map. Priority: High

1.10.

Build ML-PM Interface

Plan: Summary: Columbia builds interface to PM Starting point: PM model available at EDD Steps: 1.10.1. EDD delivers PM model to Columbia. 61

Integrated Master Plan 1.10.2. Columbia runs PM modeling. 1.10.3. Columbia requests field data like cable sections from SI regional engineering. 1.10.4. SI Regional Engineering provides Columbia with Data. 1.10.5. Columbia determines best way to present database interface to PM. 1.10.6. Columbia uses ML techniques on SI data. 1.10.7. PM IPT reviews and accepts. Importance: SI data on cable and transformers is sparce and needs to be included in the larger context of ML. ML interface methodology needed for future PM repository for ML data. Priority: High

1.11.

Build BPM-PM Interface

Plan: Summary: Columbia builds BPM interface to PM Starting point: PM model available at EDD Steps: 1.11.1. EDD delivers PM model to Columbia. 1.11.2. Columbia runs PM modeling. 1.11.3. Columbia develops interface. 1.11.4. Columbia determines best way to present database interface to PM.. 1.11.5. PM IPT reviews and accepts. Importance: BPM interface needed for future development of applications such as reinforcement learning. Priority: medium

1.12.

Build Staten Island - Ref Imp

Build Reference Implementation The intent of the reference implementation is to take a “vertical slice” at various strategic locations being modeled and to add in addition features to discover, test out and demonstrate to stakeholders the potential future capability of the ISM. Each of the five major goals of the program will have a portion devoted to a reference implementation. Within the goal of building out the SI PM, certain additional work will be performed to enable the reference implementation design to discover and demonstrate concepts. These additional goals will be outlined below. As an example, with the SI PM built out,

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Integrated Master Plan additional switches will be modeled, fictitiously at first, to simulate optionality in restoration. 1.12.1. EDD gets PM into hands of Operators 1.12.2. EDD trains Operators 1.12.3. EDD measures and improves performance of PM 1.12.4. EDD trains Field crew for pilot 1.12.5. Measure and Improve 1.12.6. EDD deploys Beta and repeat field pilot 1.12.7. Model to mapping considerations

1.13.

Build Sutton – Ref Implementation

Within the goal of building the Sutton PM, certain additional goals will require additional plans to enable the reference implementation. Below are these additional goals and plans are similar to SI and therefore will not be broken out – See SI Ref Imp 1.13.1. EDD builds Secondary Network 1.13.2. EDD builds Primary Network 1.13.3. EDD builds interface to Load Data 1.13.4. EDD builds E63rd S/S 1.13.5. EDD builds 900 Transmission 1.13.6. CU, EDD builds Net RMS interface 1.13.7. CU, EDD builds Validate Model 1.13.8. CU, EDD builds interface to Structures

1.14.

Commercialization

1.14.1. CU, CE and EDD harden version 1.0 of Plant Modeling code 1.14.2. EDD markets to other utilities 1.14.3. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk. 1.14.4. CU, CE and EDD harden version 1.0 of Fast Simulation Modeling code 1.14.5. EDD markets to other utilities 1.14.6. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk. 1.14.7. CU, CE and EDD harden version 1.0 of Machine Learning interfacing code 1.14.8. EDD markets to other utilities

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Integrated Master Plan 1.14.9. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk. 1.14.10. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Business Process Interfacing code 1.14.11. EDD markets to other utilities 1.14.12. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk.

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2. Improve Business Efficiency The business analysts on the CALM team are the primary for this goal. The goal comprised of both business processes and the scheduling of these business processes. Given that scheduling goal is primary the optimization of work using the optimization of data, the PM, BPM, ML, and RL, the Scheduling IPT will lead the development of the schedule and the reference implementation of the scheduler.

The deployment of BPM, and just the review of existing work processes, is a source of immediate savings and therefore has its own IPT that is looking at 1 year views of attacking work processes via EVSMA methodologies.

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2.1.

Develop Scheduler Requirements

Given the complexity of this goal, Columbia in collaboration with other CALM team members has been given the goal of creating a detailed requirements document for the scheduler. The requirements document is expected to be given to a commercial entity for implementation of commercial software. The scheduler reference implementation will be prototyped by Columbia for discovery and demonstration. 2.1.1. CALM, EDD, Columbia collaborate to develop the requirements for a comprehensive Outage Scheduling system that will incorporate scheduling requirements from Construction Planning, Substation Maintenance, Construction, Customer Services, Sequencing, and Operations. The outage scheduling is constrained by the need to ensure reliability (never schedule two outages that would put a network into a 2nd contingency), the priority of the work to be done and the availability of resources to do the work. Therefore it should be possible to generate an evaluation function used by an optimizing scheduling engine that is trying to order outages so as to minimize network risk, maximize network health and operate within safety and resource constraints. 2.1.2. CALM, EDD, Columbia develop requirements for Work Crew Scheduling. Given that all the maintenance and emergency work revolves around both scheduled and unscheduled outages, it makes sense to review 66

Integrated Master Plan and document the existing schedule/planning system used by the sequence group to schedule outages. Once the outage date is reached then a second level of planning and scheduling comes into play to assign equipment and crews to get the work done. In what follows we will refer to these two levels of planning and scheduling as “outage scheduling” and “work crew scheduling” respectively.

2.2.

Develop Transmission Scheduler Requirements

Plan: Starting Point: Maximo, OSS and manual spreadsheets with crew schedules and projects Steps: 2.2.1. Columbia and CALM capture existing scheduling work processes, operational rules and communications artifacts from the various organizations involved in scheduling using the Intalio BPM tool and hardcopy collection. 2.2.2. Columbia and CALM develop the costs associated with the various activities that are being scheduled. These include the costs of work performed and the costs associated with wasted time. 2.2.3. Columbia and CALM will develop a set of metrics that measure the indirect costs of possible scheduling decisions, for example choosing what to maintain affects system reliability. 2.2.4. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed these costs to the scheduling system. 2.2.5. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed plans to the scheduling system. Importance: These tasks need to be completed to ensure that we have a full understanding of the all aspects of scheduling. Priority: Medium

2.3.

Develop S/S Scheduler Requirements

Plan: Starting Point: Currently the S/S uses a combination of Maximo to manage some aspects of substation maintenance activities. They interact with other parts of the organization OSS and paper. Steps: 2.3.1. Columbia and CALM capture existing scheduling work processes, operational rules and communications artifacts from the various organizations involved in scheduling using the Intalio BPM tool and hardcopy collection.

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Integrated Master Plan 2.3.2. Columbia and CALM develop the costs associated with the various activities that are being scheduled. These include the costs of work performed and the costs associated with wasted time. 2.3.3. Columbia and CALM will develop a set of metrics that measure the indirect costs of possible scheduling decisions, for example choosing what to maintain affects system reliability. 2.3.4. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed these costs to the scheduling system, for example Maximo for substation maintenance. 2.3.5. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed plans to the scheduling system, where we mean a plan is a series of tasks that must be performed to meet the objectives of the plan. Importance: This activity one of the major sources of near-term planned work needs to be well understood and will be one of the initial components of the ISM scheduler. Priority: High

2.4.

Develop Operations Scheduler Requirements

Plan: Starting Point: Word of mouth communications, informal access to other organization’s data and manual spreadsheets. Steps: 2.4.1. Columbia and CALM capture existing scheduling work processes, operational rules and communications artifacts from the various organizations involved in scheduling using the Intalio BPM tool and hardcopy collection. 2.4.2. Columbia and CALM develop the costs associated with the various activities that are being scheduled. These include the costs of work performed and the costs associated with wasted time, for example, sequential work crews arriving at a work site before the prior crew has completed their tasks. 2.4.3. Columbia and CALM will develop a set of metrics that measure the indirect costs of possible scheduling decisions, for example choosing what to maintain affects system reliability. 2.4.4. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed these costs to the scheduling system, for example Maximo for substation maintenance. 2.4.5. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed plans to the scheduling system, where we mean a plan is a series of tasks that must be performed to meet the objectives of the plan. Importance: This activity one of the major sources of near-term planned work needs to be well understood and will be one of the initial components of the ISM scheduler. Priority: High 68


2.5.

Develop Distribution Scheduler Requirements

Plan: Starting Point: Sequencing and planning groups interact with requestors and Systems Operations through OSS Steps: 2.5.1. Columbia and CALM capture existing scheduling work processes, operational rules and communications artifacts from the various organizations involved in scheduling using the Intalio BPM tool and hardcopy collection. 2.5.2. Columbia and CALM develop the costs associated with the various activities that are being scheduled. These include the costs of work performed and the costs associated with wasted time, for example, sequential work crews arriving at a work site before the prior crew has completed their tasks. 2.5.3. Columbia and CALM will develop a set of metrics that measure the indirect costs of possible scheduling decisions, for example choosing what to maintain affects system reliability. 2.5.4. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed these costs to the scheduling system. 2.5.5. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed plans to the scheduling system, where we mean a plan is a series of tasks that must be performed to meet the objectives of the plan. Importance: This activity one of the major sources of near-term planned work needs to be well understood and will be one of the initial components of the ISM scheduler. Priority: High

2.6.

Integrate scheduling activities and design system

Plan: Starting Point: Requirements and BPM diagrams exist for all scheduling entities Steps: 2.6.1. CALM analyzes BPM diagrams for possible streamlining of existing systems 2.6.2. CALM identifies the various data sources that can be used to feed plans to the scheduling system, where we mean a plan is a series of tasks that must be performed to meet the objectives of the plan. 2.6.3. Columbia and CALM develop the interface to the Machine Learning Tools that will be used to provide contingent-based maintenance data to inform the schedule evaluator. 2.6.4. Columbia and EDD design the interface to the Plant Model that can be used to evaluate a schedule in terms of loading requirements and contingencies when various plans require equipment outages. For example 69

Integrated Master Plan the PM should be able to answer questions about the system reliability if a set of equipment is taken offline for a time period that has a probability of a 90 degree day of 33%. 2.6.5. Columbia, CALM and EDD develop the design for Human Interface that can be used to compose schedules built up from a set or requested plans. The interface should permit the visualizations of tasks on timelines, display resource loading and permit the human operator to manipulate the schedule and initiate a schedule evaluation. Importance: This goal represents the first opportunity for realizing the major benefits of the ISM scheduler and will be a major milestone and decision point to evaluate and justify the addition of optimization engines that can typically improve on human performance when dealing with large number of activities with complicated interactions. Priority: High

2.7.

Develop Optimization of Scheduler

Plan: Develop Optimization algorithms Summary: This is based on reinforcement learning, real options

2.8.

Develop BPM for Processes

This goal is a significant effort of the CALM program - In order to optimize processes you first have to measure them. Processes are identified and an EVSMA is developed to quantify the potential of value to the Enterprise before significant resources are placed to improve the process.

2.9.

Deploy Maintenance Scheduler

Plan: Starting Point: Scheduler requirements document complete. Steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

CALM prepare RFP for implementation of scheduler CALM develop a list of qualified vendors CE releases RFP to vendors CALM develops test plan for scheduler CE receives alpha version of scheduler CALM test in pilot installation CALM, CU, EDD integrate ML and PM software with scheduler

Importance: This goal delivers the first operational software that can be used as the basis for the first iteration of the software development process. With experience gained in the pilot installation, use cases and requirements can be refined and delivered to vendor for implementation in the beta version.

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2.10.

Staten Island BPM – Ref Implementation

2.11.

Develop Brooklyn Queens Flush Optimization Plan:

Summary: Develop a consistent Flush process, supported by advanced software, which is followed by all regions, while implementing the assets and procedures to meet the total flush requirement. Starting point: Evactor IT system available for entry of data. Steps: 2.11.1. CALM performs EVSMA procedure and develops write up with action items. 2.11.2. CU and CALM develop BPMN for processes. 2.11.3. CALM develops plan to develop action items and improvement of process. 2.11.4. Flush executes on suggested actions. Importance: Given the considerable waste in this process attention is placed on improving the processes and practices associated with this work. EVSMA indicates significant savings. Priority: High

2.12.

Install GPS in B/Q Flush Trucks

Plan: Summary: Install GPS in BQ Flush Trucks for measurement of waste and to develop the scheduler for this process. Starting point: Existing Flush dispatch software created by IR and used by Control Centers Steps: 2.12.1. Vendor installs GPS in B/Q Flush Trucks 2.12.2. CU stores data of Trucks 2.12.3. CU and CALM BA data mine information on Truck movement and flush dispatch 2.12.4. CU and CALM BA performs analysis of VACTOR vs GPS to define model and additional measurements Importance: The flush process was identified early on as a bottleneck to the other work forces like Electric Operations and metrics are not available to accurately determine waste containment. Given the dependence of the efficient evaction of 71

Integrated Master Plan structures to enable work, the schedule of work starts with this primary function. In Addition, the process is somewhat independent of many other drivers of the business making the challenge of changes to the process less onerous. EVSMA indicates significant savings. Priority: High

2.13.

Sign-on in Electric Operations

Plan: Summary: Signing on of crews to primary feeder work has notoriously resulted in significant waste in resources. This effort plans on reducing this white space. Starting point: Existing processes in place. Rapid restore software installed for other initiatives such as FOD. Steps: 2.13.1. CALM and CU defines underground sign on process and maps in BPMN 2.13.2. CALM and CU define detailed sign on data required 2.13.3. IR develops software program based on mobile dispatching and Rapid Restore Importance: EVSMA identified significant waste in the process. From the view of quick wins this appears as a significant visible area to install BPM. Priority: High

2.14.

Reduce Cable Waste in Electric Operations

Plan: Summary: Initially identified by CALM team, this identified issue has been transferred to Stores ( Janet Murray for action on inventory). The CALM team is identifying a method of improving the identification of cable as well as planning, forecasting, and work out location logistics for cable in collaboration with Stores. Starting point: Existing cable process in place Steps: 2.14.1. CALM defines and implements cable data for interior “strip” which includes footage 2.14.2. CALM and R&D develop hand held field device to capture cable length installed 2.14.3. IR Links hand held input to MMS for real time inventory status 2.14.4. Stores define detailed planning and forecasting process for cable Importance: EVSMA identified significant potential cost savings in scrap cable, but responsibility and authority transferred to stores. 72

Integrated Master Plan Priority: Low

2.15.

Eliminate ABF in CECONY Electric Operations

Plan: Summary: Alive on Back feed on primary feeder cables results in significant delays in scheduled work. It is proposed that DE can develop changes to equipment design basis or to operations that could mitigate this event in the future. Starting point: DE has data on past ABF Steps: 2.15.1. DE define databases for analysis and collect data from “manual” sources 2.15.2. DE enters “manual” data into database 2.15.3. CU and DE analyze data utilizing machine learning techniques 2.15.4. DE makes changes to design and/or operations and maintenance procedures Importance: Given the waste identified in the EVSMA, this phenomenon Should be addressed. DE has been given the responsibility to address this issue and is on hold until resources are available within DE to address this issue Priority: Low

2.16.

Forecast Customer Uncollectibles

Plan: Summary: Development of a system to monitor customer energy usage and predict delinquency likelihood will give the ISM the capability of simulating ways to service customers so they can better pay their bills. Starting point: Customer Operations AS IS process mapping Steps: 2.16.1. Customer Services defines databases for analysis and collect data from “manual” sources 2.16.2. CU develops and enters attributes into ML system 2.16.3. CU analyzes data utilizing machine learning techniques 2.16.4. CO makes changes to design and/or operations and maintenance procedures Importance: Initial identification by Customer Operations as a potential area of study for better forecasting of uncollectibles and how to modify customer touch to optimize enterprise value. Priority: Medium 73


2.17.

Activity Tracking linked to Costing Model – Ref Imp

Plan: Summary: CU, EDD, and CALM Activity tracking and costing model simulation Precondition: OSS, Maximo and SI PM are available for connectivity Steps: 2.17.1. CU, EDD and CALM simulate Work-Time Required Models 2.17.2. CU, EDD and CALM simulate Resource-For-Work Model 2.17.3. CU and EDD and CALM simulate Contingency-Work 2.17.4. CU, EDD, and CALM simulate better Feeder Outage Workplans 2.17.5. CU and EDD simulate Maximo Outage Mining example 2.17.6. CU, EDD, and CALM simulate Asset Allocation Model Importance: Used primarily for development of users requirements but also as a means of understanding and quantifying the cost/benefit analysis of a scheduler Priority: Medium

2.18.

Scheduler in B/Q RE major projects - Ref Imp

Plan: Summary: CU, BQ and CALM develop an alpha planning visualizer focused primarily on Distribution assets in BQ. Precondition: Access Data Base available for construction planning Steps: 2.18.1. CU Develop BQ construction planner visualizer 2.18.2. CU and CALM develop Intalio-based execution engine (BPM Engine) to track workflows in planning process. 2.18.3. CU and CALM define interface between visualizer and access database. 2.18.4. CU and CALM define interface between BPM engine and database. 2.18.5. CP define interface between visualizer and BPM engine. 2.18.6. CU and CALM implement interfaces 2.18.7. CU and CALM engage users in usability testing 2.18.8. CU and CALM refine UI Importance: Reference implementation is key to developing the requirements for a full strength scheduler. This goal takes precedence before RFP of Scheduler and finalization of scheduler requirements. Priority: high

2.19.

BPM for Replevin – Ref Implementation

Plan: Summary: CE, CU and CALM develop BPM for uncollectibles process using Intalio 74

Integrated Master Plan Precondition: Intalio software available for implementation Steps: 2.19.1. CE, CALM and CU Map AS IS 2.19.2. CE and CALM create EVSMA 2.19.3. CE makes changes to process and document potential savings 2.19.4. CU Develops Intalio application –Alpha 2.19.5. CU and IR develop beta installed at CE 2.19.6. IR and/or EDD harden BPM server and application for commercial use in CE 2.19.7. CE and CU develop performance metrics 2.19.8. CU and CE run performance metrics for process using COTS performance monitoring tools Importance: Seen as a process with a lot of waste and not too connected to others processes, this process is seen as one of the best reference implementations from which to improve on the process of installing BPM through out the company. Priority: High

2.20.

Commercialization

2.20.1. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Dynamic Scheduling code 2.20.2. EDD markets to other utilities 2.20.3. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk. 2.20.4. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Intalio Process Mapper code 2.20.5. EDD markets to other utilities 2.20.6. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk. 2.20.7. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Activity traqcker linked to Costing Model code 2.20.8. EDD markets to other utilities 2.20.9. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk.

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3. Provide Decision Aids

The lead for developing decision aids will be the Operations Management IPT. Iterative approaches will be essential to the development of control room decision support aids and will have to grow from operational experiences such as past incidents like LIC and other operational stresses that scream for better decision support. The battlefield visualization system for making existing data and algorithms available to operators in an integrated view is just one example of the interactive approach that is being taken to creating these tools. In addition to using existing data, requirements for the use of newly proposed data from the PM and BPM will be developed using system engineering tools.

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3.1. Predict Problems via susceptibility of feeders in real time Plan: Summary: CU develops susceptibility rankings for feeders using ML Starting point: Data available from DE Steps: 3.1.1. CU builds MartaRank Machine Learning System 3.1.2. CU debugs and tests Alpha in CCs 3.1.3. EDD hardens and Eng (Chuck Lawson) installs Beta in CCs 3.1.4. OM IPT monitors use by operators and establishes required feedback loops for continuous improvement 3.1.5. CU Debugs and tests Beta in CCs 3.1.6. EDD hardens and Eng (Chuck Lawson) installs Version 1.0 in CCs 3.1.7. OM IPT monitors use by operators and tracks metrics of actions Importance: Improvement in the rankings of equipment to be replaced is at the heart of predictive maintenance Priority: High

3.2.

Predict Survivability – Real Time

Plan: 77

Integrated Master Plan Summary: CU develops susceptibility rankings for sections, joints and transformers. Starting point: Data available from DE Steps: 3.2.1. CU builds SVM Ranking System 3.2.2. CU debugs and validate that it works 3.2.3. CU distributes Alpha ranking of Feeder Sections 3.2.4. CU tracks predictions versus actual outage causes 3.2.5. CU distributes Alpha ranking of Transformers 3.2.6. CU tracks predictions versus actual outage causes 3.2.7. CU distributes Alpha ranking of Joints 3.2.8. CU tracks predictions versus actual outage causes 3.2.9. CU installs Beta of Ranking software at Cable Center 3.2.10. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction 3.2.11. EDD hardens and distributes Version 1.0 Importance: Continued improvement in ranking of equipment is at the heart of CALM Priority: High

3.3. Predict Customer Susceptibility of Feeders and Networks – Real Time Plan: Summary: Engineering and CU extend Next Worst Feeder Contingencies developed by BQ to all boroughs, and integrate to maintain the electrical and customer susceptibility rankings for feeders and networks in same system. Starting Point: Alpha prototype of customer susceptibility rankings for Feeders and Networks. Steps: 3.3.1. BQ build Alpha of Customer Susceptibility System 3.3.2. BQ debugs, and with CU, develops time series analyzer 3.3.3. EDD hardens and installs Beta in CCs 3.3.4. BQ and CU monitor and improve performance 3.3.5. EDD hardens and installs Version 2.0 (Customer plus Electrical Susceptibility) in CCs 3.3.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction Importance: Prior to having a detailed topological model available to measure customer susceptibility this goal makes sense to discover operator requirements. Priority: High

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3.4.

Predict MTTF for Manhole Events, Stray Voltage

Plan: Summary: CU develops susceptibility rankings for Manhole events and stray voltage using ML Starting Point: Data available in Con Edison network 3.4.1. CU builds Minimum-Time–to-Failure Machine Learning System to predict ranking of most susceptible manholes to smoking, fire, and stray voltages 3.4.2. CU debugs and tests performance of system 3.4.3. CU distributes Alpha ranking of Manholes, worst to best 3.4.4. CU tracks predictions versus actual outage causes 3.4.5. CU installs Beta of Ranking software at Cable Center 3.4.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction 3.4.7. EDD hardens and distributes Version 1.0 Importance: At the core of CALM, this goal has significant potential to reduce un safe conditions in the field. Priority: High

Build Weather Management Prediction of weather and its uncertainty as it relates to the business and the use of this information to make more informed decisions.

Build Weather Management OPS Manage Weather EDD

Forecast Loads

Manage Storms

Predict Outages

Manage Lightning

EDD

Interface Weather Data Interface Lightning Data 1

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3.5. Predict better Day Ahead Weather using Deep Thunder –Ref Imp Plan: Summary: CU tests and improves IBM Research version of Deep Thunder. Starting Point: Data available in Con Edison network 3.5.1. CU tests IBM Deep Thunder against WeatherBank 3.5.2. CU installs additional weather stations in select ConEd S/Ss 3.5.3. IBM modifies Deep Thunder to accept additional weather station information 3.5.4. CU tracks predictions versus actual weather and storm tracks 3.5.5. IBM installs Beta of Deep Thunder II in CCs 3.5.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction 3.5.7. EDD hardens and distributes Version 1.0 Importance: Having a more granular forecast of weather predictions requires use of a model that can provide more accurate locational predictions than the National Weather Service. Priority: High

3.6.

Predict Thunder Storm tracks and effects in ORU

Plan: Summary: ORU and EDD research lightning strikes in ORU Starting Point: Lightning storm data available 3.6.1. EDD develops thunder storm analysis algorithm 3.6.2. CU installs and IBM integrates S/S weather station data into Deep Thunder 3.6.3. ORU installs thunder storm analysis into PM 3.6.4. EDD hardens and distributes Version 1.0 for ORU and CECONY Importance: Responses to thunder storms is critical to reducing outages to customers Priority: High

3.7.

Predict Network level day-ahead load forecast

Plan: Summary: CALM, Energy Management, and CU develop model based on IBM Deep Thunder to predict high fidelity forecasts for each network/region in the system Starting Point: Day-Ahead forecast, IBM Model inputs 80

Integrated Master Plan 3.7.1. CU develops Load Forecasting ML to overlay IBM model 3.7.2. Energy management compares existing neural nets to CU ML algorithm of forecast 3.7.3. EDD hardens and distributes Version 1.0 Importance: Development of more accurate Network level forecasts will support refinements in energy balance and will be used to predict Network transformer level loading forecasts Priority: High

3.8.

Predict Network Transformer level day-ahead forecast

Plan: Summary: CUs develops model based on IBM Deep Thunder and PM to forecast down to the network transformer for variance detection decision support aid Starting Point: PM available in a network, IBM Model inputs, ML model alpha 3.8.1. 3.8.2. 3.8.3. 3.8.4.

CU develops network transformer level loading from models CU developed beta shifted load variance model Ops IPT validates model EDD hardens and distributes Version 1.0

Importance: Development of accurate forecasted network transformer loading coupled with shifted load variance analysis that takes into consideration open mains and transformer can mitigate catastrophic events Priority: High

3.9.

Develop Operational responses to weather

Plan: Summary: ORU, EDD and CU develop operational responses to weather Starting Point: Accurate Deep Thunder weather and lightning predictions 3.9.1. ORU and CU develop requirements for operations 3.9.2. ORU and CU map AS IS processes 3.9.3. EDD and ORU develop operational responses to lightning contingencies 3.9.4. Modifications to operational responses from weather predictions is tested and measured for success 3.9.5. Operational response procedures coupled with deep thunder and lightning forecasts are developed 3.9.6. ORU experience transferred to CECONY Importance: Predicting weather is nice but without making fundamental changes to the operations, then all other work would have been for nothing. 81

Integrated Master Plan Priority: High

3.10. Integration of Real-Time Susceptibility and Survivability Plan: Summary: CU and EDD develop an integrated system to maintain the susceptibility rankings for the various component attributes Starting Point: Alpha prototype of susceptibility rankings for Feeder, joint, sections and manholes complete. Steps: 3.10.1. CU and EDD merge Feeder, Section, Joint, and Manhole Machine Learning Systems into Real-Time Network monitoring system 3.10.2. CU and EDD debug and Install Alpha in CCs 3.10.3. EDD hardens and installs Beta in CCs 3.10.4. CU monitors and improves performance 3.10.5. EDD hardens, tests and deploys Version 1.0 in CCs 3.10.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction Importance: Natural evolution of Alpha work developed by CU, this goal is required to solidify the ML of components into a value product that has longevity. Priority: High

3.11. Merge Engineering Workstation Customer Susceptibility Plan: Summary: BQ and CU integrate electrical and customer support system fro EW into Decision Aids system Starting Point: Alpha prototype of customer and electrical susceptibility rankings for Feeders, joint, sections, customers and manhole events complete. Steps: 3.11.1. BQ, CU build Alpha of Customer and Electrical Susceptibility System 3.11.2. BQ, CU debug and develop time series analyzer 3.11.3. EDD hardens and installs Beta in CCs 3.11.4. BQ, CU monitors and improves performance 3.11.5. EDD hardens and installs Version 2.0 (Customer and Electrical Susceptibility) in CCs 3.11.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction

82

Integrated Master Plan Importance: High Priority: High

3.12. Merge Transformer Load Variances into Secondary Monitoring Plan: Summary: CU and EDD develop an integrated system to measure transformer variance for secondary monitoring Starting Point: Alpha prototype of variance detection using continuous running wolf in Manhattan with inputs from net RMS. Steps: 3.12.1. CU build Alpha of TS_Graphs System 3.12.2. CU debug and develops time series analyzer 3.12.3. EDD hardens and installs Beta in CCs 3.12.4. CU monitors and improves performance 3.12.5. EDD hardens and installs Version 2.0 (Susceptibility plus Time Series) in CCs 3.12.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction Importance: Detection of potential issues with the secondary system that could be a precursor to manhole events that can cause harm to the public Priority: High

3.13.

Develop Battlefield Visibility GUI

Plan: Summary: CU, Ops, CALM, and EDD develop an integrated visualization system to provide operators with knowledge of the system with concise effort. Starting Point: Alpha prototype of susceptibility rankings for Feeder, joint, sections and manholes complete. SVG systems developed by IR completed. Data from SVG systems made available for PM Steps: 3.13.1. Build Visibility Visualization System 3.13.2. CU, EDD merge relevant IR SVG systems Distribution Primary Visualization, Visual Secondary Targeting, Visual Fault Locator, Service Demand Simulation, Service Demand Simulation, and BQ Engineering Workshop with Real-Time Machine Learning Analysis System to produce Alpha of Battlefield Visualization System for CCs 3.13.3. CU, EDD, DE develop AVS one-lines and debug and test 3.13.4. EDD hardens and distributes Beta to CCs 83

Integrated Master Plan 3.13.5. CU monitors and improves performance 3.13.6. EDD hardens and installs Version 1.0 3.13.7. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction Importance: A Lack of Integration of various views of the information into one system has been a major complaint to limiting accurate and timely decision making in the control room. Priority: High

3.14.

Geographic ISM - City-Wide System

Plan: Summary: CU, Ops, CALM, and EDD develop an integrated Geographic Modeling System (GMS) that is used as to feed the GIS and AVS Transmission Visualization System into the Integrated System Model. Starting Point: Alpha prototype of susceptibility rankings on Google Earth for Feeder, joint, sections and manholes complete. SVG systems developed by IR completed. Data from SVG systems made available for PM Steps: 3.14.1. CU builds Google Earth Layers for Battlefield Visibility System 3.14.2. CU, EDD build Alpha AVS integration with Transmission Visualization System 3.14.3. CU, EDD harden and install Beta in CCs 3.14.4. CU monitors and improves performance 3.14.5. EDD hardens and installs Version 1.0 3.14.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction Importance: High Priority: High

3.15.

Develop Real Time Analysis with the ISM

Plan: Summary: Connect Real Time GUI with PM, ML, RL, BPM . CU, Ops, CALM, and EDD develop an integrated system model to maintain the susceptibility rankings for the various component-level attributes and develops algorithms to use with the PM Starting Point: Alpha prototype of susceptibility rankings for Feeder, joint, sections and manholes complete. SVG systems developed by IR completed. Data from SVG systems made available for PM Steps: 3.15.1.

EDD, CU collaborate on the Alpha and install in CCs 84

Integrated Master Plan 3.15.2. EDD, CU run trial simulations of next worst contingencies and evaluate performance of the system 3.15.3. EDD hardens and deploys Beta in CCs 3.15.4. EDD, CU run trial simulations of planning contingencies and evaluate performance of the system 3.15.5. EDD hardens and deploys Beta with Planning groups 3.15.6. EDD hardens and installs Version 1.0 Importance: High Priority: High

3.16.

Connect BPM Tracking to ML/PM/visualization

Plan: Summary: CU, Ops, CALM, and EDD integrate the BPM tracking system with the PM and ML. Starting Point: Alpha prototype of susceptibility rankings for Feeder, joint, sections and manholes complete. PM installed and running. Data tied to PM. BPM system server running. Steps: 3.16.1. CU integrates Intalio with Battlefield/PM system and installs Alpha in operations and contstruction in regions 3.16.2. OM IPT monitors integration of work process and analysis of system performance 3.16.3. EDD hardens and deploys Beta 3.16.4. EDD, CU run trial simulations of work process optimization and evaluate performance of the system 3.16.5. EDD hardens and deploys Version 1.0 Importance: High Priority: High

3.17.

Create Contingency Plans

Plan: Summary: CU, Ops, CALM, and EDD develop an integrated system model that uses real time prediction of assets to develop decision support contingent plans on operating the system and its human resources. Starting Point: Beta prototype of susceptibility rankings for Feeder, joint, sections and manholes complete in PM. SVG systems developed by IR completed. Data from SVG systems made available for PM. AVS alpha in the process of development. Steps: 85

Integrated Master Plan 3.17.1. CU maps contingency planning for big, bad events with CE and Ops 3.17.2. EDD automates alpha of scenario generator for contingency planning 3.17.3. DE and Ops validate results 3.17.4. EDD hardens and deploys Version 1.0

3.18.

Decision Aids in Staten Island – Ref Imp

3.18.1. CU obtains feeder attributes Cable Center databases and feeds into ML system to predict susceptibility 3.18.2. CU obtains feeder attributes through PM and feeds into ML system to predict susceptibility 3.18.3. CU, SI RE predict better Day Ahead Weather using Deep Thunder 3.18.4. CE extends contract with IBM, and EDD builds prediction interface for PM to day-ahead weather 3.18.5. CU and EDD develop integration of susceptibility and survivability displays with PM 3.18.6. CU, IR, BQ and EDD build SI Battlefield Visibility display and test it with operators 3.18.7. SI RE, CU monitor and improve operations and planning using the decision aids system 3.18.8. CE uses scenarios run in PM and ML on results to test planning optimization 3.18.9. EDD hardens and deploys Version 2.0 of Decision Aids Viz in SI 3.18.10. EDD hardens Decision Aids and CE deploys in SICC 3.18.11. CU, SICC and ECC monitor performance and design next version

3.19. Reference Implementation in Manhattan/Sutton – Decision Aids 3.19.1. CU obtains feeder attributes from PM and feeds into ML system to predict susceptibility 3.19.2. Predict better Day Ahead Weather using Deep Thunder in Sutton 3.19.3. CE extends contract with IBM, and EDD builds prediction interface for PM to day-ahead weather 3.19.4. EDD integrates Real-Time Susceptibility and Survivability Systems in Decision Aids 3.19.5. CU and EDD develop integration of susceptibility and survivability displays with PM 3.19.6. CALM and EDD Merge Engineering Workstation Customer Susceptibility into Decision Aids 3.19.7. CU and EDD merge Time-Series Xfmr Nearby Variances into Secondary Monitoring addition to Decision Aids 3.19.8. CU gets transformer loads from PM and feeds variances from shifted load design to the PM and Battlefield Visibility System 3.19.9. Merge Time-Series Relays and S/S Monitoring into Decision Aids 86

Integrated Master Plan 3.19.10. CU gets S/S relay targets from FMS via the PM and trains on MTTF 3.19.11. Test Battlefield Visibility Front End to Decision Aids with Operators 3.19.12. CU, IR, BQ and EDD build Sutton Battlefield Visibility display using existing SVG information and test it with operators 3.19.13. Monitors and improve operations and planning using the decision aids system 3.19.14. CE uses scenarios run in PM and ML on results to test planning optimization 3.19.15. Harden and deploy Version 2.0 of Decision Aids Viz in Sutton 3.19.16. EDD hardens Decision Aids and CE deploys in MECC 3.19.17. CU, MECC and ECC monitor performance and design next version

3.20.

BQ Reference Implementation

3.20.1. CU Predicts Customer Susceptibility of Feeders and Networks 3.20.2. CU and BQ get b-tickets from ECM database via PM, and add banks off and open mains to compute customer susceptibility 3.20.3. Merge Engineering Workstation Customer Susceptibility into Decision Aids 3.20.4. BQ and EDD develop integration of susceptibility displays with PM

3.21. Merge Time-Series Relays and S/S Monitoring into Decision Aids Plan: Summary: CU, CALM, and EDD develop an integrated system to monitor S/S component susceptibility Starting Point: Transmission Information System (TIS) installed at S/S and data available for application development using SAX time series analysis and ML . Steps: 3.21.1. CU builds Relays Machine Learning System. 3.21.2. CU tests and debugs Alpha using Farragut S/S TIS 3.21.3. EDD hardens and installs Beta in CCs 3.21.4. CU monitors and improves performance 3.21.5. EDD hardens and installs Version 3.0 (Susceptibility plus Time Series plus S/S monitoring) in CCs 3.21.6. OM IPT monitors use by operations and construction Importance: First testing of monitoring of relay protection. 87

Integrated Master Plan Priority: Medium

3.22.

Direct State Controller

3.22.1. CU develops on-line decision support analyzer 3.22.2. CU adds open market layering 3.22.3. CU and EDD investigate transaction clearing for energy trading 3.22.4. EDD models system load management including shedding and stability 3.22.5. CU and EDD develop objective functions for system control 3.22.6. EDD models damping of electromechanical oscillation & voltage profiles 3.22.7. EDD models controllers for Power System Stabilizers, Static VAR Compensators, HVDC links, & Demand response 3.22.8. CU develops model for adaptive relays 3.22.9. EDD and CU adds dynamic Security 3.22.10. Dynamic Network Protection added by EDD

3.23.

Commercialization

3.23.1. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Susceptibility code 3.23.2. EDD markets to other utilities 3.23.3. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk. 3.23.4. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Control Center Battlefield Visibility code 3.23.5. EDD markets to other utilities 3.23.6. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk.

88


4. Optimize Assets Management CE and R&D have been working with Columbia for 2 years now on using ML for survivability of cable sections, transformers and joints. Survivability ranks how much more live is left in these assets, as opposed to how eminent failure might be.

The following goals have been established for optimizing asset management

89


4.1.

Develop Lifecycle Strategy

Plan: Summary: Optimization of the life of assets as it relates to regulatory constraints as well as business requirements will require an optimization strategy and associated software algorithms. Starting Point: PM completed in at least one area, ML for all distribution assets Steps: 4.1.1. CU develops Mean-Time-To-Failure Models for all major components 4.1.2. CU, EDD test and refine MTTF Model with Construction and Engineering 4.1.3. EDD, CU test simulations of Lifecycle Strategies to produce Alpha of Preventive Maintenance Optimizer 4.1.4. EDD hardens and deploys Beta 4.1.5. OM IPT evaluates construction and engineering uses of Preventive Maintenance Optimizer 4.1.6. EDD hardens and deploys Version 1.0 Importance: A requirement for optimal decision support Priority: low

90


4.2.

Optimize Replacement

Plan: Summary: The requirement of developing a replacement optimization model and getting this software in the hands of Regional Engineering and construction Starting Point: Data available for discovery of ML on assets Steps: 4.2.1. CU develops Replacement Optimization Model for all major components 4.2.2. CU, EDD test and refine Replacement Optimization Model with Construction and Engineering 4.2.3. EDD, CU test simulations of Replacement Optimization System to produce Alpha 4.2.4. EDD hardens and deploys Beta 4.2.5. OM IPT evaluates construction and engineering uses of Replacement Optimization System 4.2.6. EDD hardens and deploys Version 1.0 Importance: This has been at the forefront of asset management in terms of developing ML algorithms that can predict survivability. Priority: High

4.3.

Survivability Ranking

Plan: Summary: CU develops prediction of assets in terms of survivabililty Starting Point: ML from WBS 4.2 for other boroughs in alpha or beta form for all distribution assets 4.3.1. CU Predicts Survivability of Feeders 4.3.2. CU obtains feeder component attributes from PM and feeds into ML system to predict survivability 4.3.3. CU Predicts survivability of Sections, Joints, Xfmrs 4.3.4. CU Predicts customer susceptibility of Feeders and Networks 4.3.5. CU analyzes manhole events from stray voltage project and predicts MTTF 4.3.6. EDD simulates replacement programs that optimize component health

4.4.

Optimize for System Change

Plan: 91

Integrated Master Plan Summary: Measure the success of removal of degrading assets and changing system conditions and creating an action tracking system to enable changes in the business process. Starting Point:ML alpha and beta software models deployed in regions Steps: 4.4.1. 4.4.2. 4.4.3. 4.4.4.

CU develops action tracker of work process. CU and CALM data mine action tracker CU develops feedback loop with reinforcement learning algorithms EDD hardens and deploys Version 1.0

Importance: After the deployment of ML, determining whether the model outputs are being used to change the state of the system is important to determine how to change the process if metrics determine unexpect results in the replacement process. Priority: Medium

4.5.

Optimize for System Survivability

Plan: Summary: Determining the overall system survivability as a result of component change out or design basis changes requires modeling of overall system survivability in terms of business risk from customer outages. Optimization of this business risk, called “Business Jeopardy” is the focus of this goal. Starting Point: PM installed in at least one region, ML beta for most components. Steps: 4.5.1. CU, EDD and CALM develops System Survivability Model with 3G team 4.5.2. EDD, CU test simulations of System Survivability Model to produce Alpha 4.5.3. EDD hardens and deploys Beta 4.5.4. OM IPT evaluates 3G team uses of System Survivability Model 4.5.5. EDD hardens and deploys Version 1.0 Importance: Requirements of measuring business risk is critical to the success of the company and leads to modifications to the design basis of the system and the funding deployment for the company in the replacement of assets Priority: High

4.6.

Asset Management in Staten Island – Ref Imp

4.6.1. CU gathers from PM the survivability of Sections, Joints, Xfmrs 92

Integrated Master Plan 4.6.2. CU gathers from PM the mean-Time-Between-Failures for Poles, Manhole Events, Stray Voltage 4.6.3. Test optimization of Replacement Strategies 4.6.4. CU and EDD use PM to test scenarios of replacement sequencing 4.6.5. Test optimization for system change 4.6.6. CU and EDD use PM to test scenarios of system improvement and change 4.6.7. Test optimization for network survivability 4.6.8. CU and EDD use PM to test scenarios for 4kV network survivability

4.7.

Reference Implementation in Manhattan

4.7.1. CU gathers from PM the survivability of Sections, Joints, Xfmrs 4.7.2. CU gathers from PM the mean-Time-Between-Failures for Manhole Events, Stray Voltage 4.7.3. CU and IBM tests for better Day Ahead Weather using Deep Thunder 4.7.4. Test optimization of Replacement Strategies 4.7.5. CU and EDD use PM to test scenarios of replacement sequencing 4.7.6. Test optimization for system change 4.7.7. CU and EDD use PM to test scenarios of system improvement and change 4.7.8. Test optimization for network survivability 4.7.9. CU and EDD use PM to test scenarios for network survivability

4.8.

Commercialization

4.8.1. CU, ConEd and EDD harden version 1.0 of Survivability code 4.8.2. EDD markets to other utilities 4.8.3. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk.

93


5. Develop Smart Grid Given the significant amount of financial and economic analysis required to develop the smart grid and the implications to the business and customers, the CALM BA will lead this overall effort. Further defining of goals and tasks will be performed when funding and resources are made available for this effort.

94


5.1.

Evaluate Strategies

5.1.1. BA, ENG, Reg, Marketing, CU evaluate supply strategies 5.1.2. CU, BA, Eng, Marketing evaluate consumer energy strategies 5.1.3. EDD, BA, Eng, CU evaluate system control strategies 5.1.4. 3G, BA, Eng, CU evaluate hardware delivery strategies -- OUT OF SCOPE OF GO and expected within 3G

95


5.2.

Develop Controller

5.2.1. CU, BA develop theory 5.2.2. Marketing, Reg, EDD, Partners, CU develop hardware 5.2.3. CU, BA develop applications 5.2.4. BA, IT, EDD, CU, ENG, Partners develop electrical infrastructure in a tandem initiative between CALM and 3G 5.2.5. CU, ES, Meter, Whirlpool, EDD, Resident develop Residential model 5.2.6. CU, Eng, ES, Meter, Partners, EDD develop Distributed Resources model

96


5.3.

Evaluate Financials

5.3.1. Evaluate Value to Stakeholders – Presently out of scope of GO 5.3.2. Evaluate consumer strategies- Presently out of scope of GO 5.3.3. Evaluate pricing signals/strategies- Presently out of scope of GO

97


5.4.

Develop Infrastructure

5.4.1. CU, IT develop with Publish/Subscribe solution 5.4.2. Infotility, BA, EDD, CU CE develop agents 5.4.3. Eng, EDD, Partners, CU develop Sense/Respond -- OUT OF SCOPE OF GO 5.4.4. CU, Tariff, Meter, Marketing, Appliance, Infotility, EDD, Eng, BA develop Micro Transactions capability

98


5.5.

ISM Grid Optimization: Reference Implementation

This concerns important plans that need to be in place to make the smart grid fully achievable. Potential future work may include these goals. Full breakout of reference implementation will take place when funding becomes available. EDD and CU create thin Vertical Slice thru all goals in: Evaluate Strategies, Evaluate Financials, Develop Infrastructure, Develop Controller, Evangelize using Reference Implementation (see above). All M in quarter one after all reference implementations are ready for each goal, then BQ, then BW

5.5.1. 5.5.2. 5.5.3. 5.5.4. 5.5.5.

CU, CE test strategies CU CE prove financials CU, CE, EDD, Partners, Resident test Controller CU, CE, EDD, Partners prove Infrastructure CU, CE, EDD, Partners evangelize using reference implementation

99


5.6. Evangelize Smart Grid via Customer Analysis and Response

5.6.1. BA, ENG show internal benefits - Presently out of scope of GO 5.6.2. R&D, Marketing show and promote Energy Double Star - OUT OF SCOPE OF GO 5.6.3. CU ENG, R&D, EDD demonstrate 3G/Grid Opt synergy – Load transfer in Fox Hills/Fresh Kills, NEETRAC CLiC device, etc. 5.6.4. Marketing, Whirlpool, GridWise, CU show Appliance Response demo 5.6.5. R&D, BA, CU show Market Making demo 5.6.6. R&D, BA, CU ModernGrid, GridWise, NYSERDA, Intelligrid, DOE, MTA show DR demos including, super batteries, fuel cells, LVDC MTA support for CE networks.

100


5.7. Develop Test Bed Simulation for Reconfiguration Intelligence 5.7.1. CU, CE develop and execute an outreach program to industry and utility peers 5.7.2. CU, CE, EDD design a simulation environment for the market model, the controller, generator, and equipment agents, the infrastructure, and the electric grid simulation. 5.7.3. CU, CE, EDD develop controller model components 5.7.4. CU, CE, EDD develop infrastructure model components 5.7.5. CU, CE, EDD develop financial model components 5.7.6. CU, CE, EDD, Infotility evaluate and recommend candidates for the software agent development environment (ADE) to be used in the out years. 5.7.7. CU, CE, EDD design, develop, and demonstrate a prototype market model 5.7.8. CU, CE, EDD design a program to evaluate strategies for various grid supply and demand options, including MTA load reconfigurations, Fox Hills/Fresh Kills load transfer, and implemented automated metering pilots. 5.7.9. CU, CE, EDD, develop a scenario generator for major alternative futures 5.7.10. CU, CE, VT, EDD develop hybrid test bed.

5.8.

Commercialization

5.8.1. CU, CE and EDD harden simulation test bed with agents and market model 5.8.2. EDD markets simulation test bed to other utilities 5.8.3. EDD builds support organization for updates, new versions, 24/7 help desk 5.8.4. CU, CE, VT, and EDD optionally seek partners to establish Controller Foundry 5.8.5. Controller Foundry produce controllers for consumer devices 5.8.6. Controller Foundry produce controllers for grid devices 5.8.7. CU, CE and EDD harden Micro Transaction Infrastructure for market making 5.8.8. CU, CE and EDD optionally seek partners to establish Micro Transaction Infrastructure Enterprise 5.8.9. Micro Transaction Infrastructure Enterprise markets to other utilities as a product or market making service 5.8.10. CU, CE, VT, and EDD harden Hybrid Test Bed 5.8.11. CU, CE, VT, and EDD optionally seek partners to produce Hybrid Test Bed Enterprise 5.8.12. Hybrid Test Bed Enterprise markets to other utilities as a produce or service 101


IMP to IMS The Edison program requires that the Goals described above in the Integrated Master Plan be executed in coordination and collaboration by the Integrated Process Teams. Each has its own schedule, deliverables, milestones and goals, and the IMS puts this all together into what is called a “Precedence Diagram.” The PD creates “Critical Path” (CP) schedules, then tracks progress and identifies when and where deviations from the CP are occurring so that management can respond before “train wrecks” occur. The CP is an algorithm for scheduling the complex set of project activity dependencies inherent if the IMP described above. The IMS uses CP to construct a model of the IMP that includes the following: List of all activities required to achieve the Goals Time (start-date, duration) that each activity will take to completion Dependencies between the activities Cost of each in manpower and dollars CP maps the starting and ending times for each activity between Goals and tasks, determines which activities are critical to the completion of ISM (thus the name critical path), and reveals those activities with "float time" which require less critical timing. Any delay of an activity on the critical path directly impacts the planned project completion date (i.e. there is no float on the critical path). The CALM project has parallel critical paths for each Goal as well as a Master path. The CP results allow managers to prioritize both time and resource dependencies. Since project schedules change on a regular basis, CP allows continuous monitoring of the schedule, allows the project manager to track the critical activities, and ensures that non-critical activities do not interfere with the critical ones. In addition, the method can easily incorporate the concepts of stochastic predictions, using PERT charts (Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). We will use MS Project Gantt chart format for our graphic display of project plans and actual accomplishments. MS project allows one to show interdependence, resource allocation, and roll-up of tasks and subtasks on a Gantt chart, at varying degrees of clarity. Each IPT leader will be responsible to update its IPT’s responsible goals and tasks on a weekly basis in MS Project Server, which is presently installed at CCLS. In summary, the ISM provides both a virtual model for project and task managers to refine their plans as well as an excellent graphic depiction of the plans and project status to the team and their customers. It is more work than the standard Gantt chart, but it is extremely helpful in the effective execution of the project. The precedence chart graphically clarifies the plan, and allows team members to see themselves as integral to the project.

102

Edison Program

Edison Program

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