Energy models, tools for energy planning

Role of carbon capture technologies in the Spanish industry in 2030 under CO2 reduction scenarios using the TIMES-Spain energy optimisation model

García-Gusano D., Cabal H., Lechón Y., Berghout N., Van den Broek M., Alonso-Ayuso A.

July 11, 2012 – Vilnius

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25th European Conference on OR July 2012, Vilnius, Lithuania

Contents

1. Introduction 2. Spanish industry: cement, steel, oil refining

3. TIMES-Spain model 4. New modelling developments: CO2 capture processes 5. Scenarios

6. Results 7. Conclusions 2


1. Introduction

Cement, steel, oil refining and petrochemical sectors  40% GHG worldwide (IEA, 2009) IEA 2050-Bluemap scenario  CCS in industrial processes (↓50%) (IEA, 2008a) Spanish total Spain sectoral CO2 emissions from the total (2005-2009)

(MARM, 2011)

Mt CO2

2005

364

2006

355

CEMENT

2007

364

IRON & STEEL

2%

2008

334

2009

297

OIL REFINING

4%

6-8 %

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2. Spanish industry. Cement

Cement: limestone, clay and sand (optionally gypsum)

(CEMBUREAU, 2010)

Demand (Mt)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

50.53

55.9

56.00

42.67

28.91

24.51

Sources of CO2 (concentration) (Cochiez, 2011)

Calcination (kiln)  50-70% Fuel combustion  30-50% Use of electricity  5% (IEA, 2008b) 4


2. Spanish industry. Steel

Steelmaking embraces ironmaking (BdE, 2011)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Production (Mt)

17.90

18.39

19.00

18.64

14.36

16.34

Exports (Mt)

6.58

6.78

7.77

9.28

8.17

9.70

Imports (Mt)

11.30

14.23

14.98

11.77

6.99

8.69

Sintering

Pelletizat.

Basic Oxygen Furnace Blast Furnace

BOF

Main sources of CO2: > Reducing agents (coke) > Use of electricity

Smelting Reduction Electric Arc Furnace Direct Reduction

EAF Scrap melting

(ETSAP, 2010)

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2. Spanish industry. Oil refining

9 refineries operating in 2012 in Spain (IEA, 2009)

Crude oil processed

Diesel

Gasoline

Residual fuel oil

Kerosene

Other petroleum products

EU27 (Mt)

599.7

254.1

132.0

86.4

42.4

58.3

ES (Mt)

52.7

22.4

8.97

9.15

6.32

1.93

%

8.79

8.82

6.79

10.6

14.9

3.31

CO2 sources in a refinery (UNIDO, 2010) > Process heaters and boilers > Utilities > Fluid Catalytic Crackers, FCCs > Hydrogen production units

(60%) (20-50%) (20-50%) (5-20%)

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3. TIMES-Spain model

TIMES - The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System Energy optimisation model generator developed by IEA-ETSAP - Goals: To describe energy systems To make mid-/long-term prospectives for energy planning

- Characteristics: bottom-up, technology-rich, partial equilibrium (energy), elastic demands, dynamic (time), etc. - Optimal solution: future energy system (most cost efficient technology mix) socioeconomic drivers demands

- Different scenarios TIMES-Spain: description of the Spanish energy system

NEEDS (PET) RES2020 7


Decision variables:

3. TIMES-Spain model

Objective function:

(Loulou et al., 2005)

NCAP(r,v,p), CAP(r,v,t,p), ACT(r,v,t,p,s), FLOW(r,v,t,p,c,s), etc.

Constraints: Scenarios

Minimizing total system cost 8


4. New modelling developments. CO2 capture processes

(IPCC, 2005)

NEW

PCC  2020 Retrofit

OCC  2030 New builds

Cement: PCC & OCC Steel: PCC & OCC Oil Refining: PCC 9


5. Scenarios

Business as Usual (BaU) From 20/20/20 Energy package: Directive 2009/28/EC  20% Renewable Directive 2009/29/EC  -20% GHG (1990 level) High Target (HT) Decision 2009/406/EC  -10% GHG Non ETS (2005 level) EU Phase III 2013-2020  -21% GHG ETS (2005 level) 10


6. Results. CO2 emissions Capture costs

CO2 captured

In cement:

25

BaU

CO2 captured (Mt)

20

PCC (MEA) From 2020 202 €/tCO2 capt OCC From 2030 129 €/tCO2 capt

HT

15

10

In oil refining: 5

PCC (MEA) 0 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

From 2020 333 €/tCO2 capt 11


6. Results. Cement

CO2 captured in cement production 12

CO2 captured (Mt)

10 8 6 4 2 0 PCC

OCC

PCC

BaU

OCC HT

2020

PCC

OCC

PCC

BaU

OCC HT

2025

PCC

OCC

PCC

BaU

OCC HT

2030

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6. Results. Iron and Steel

100 95

No capture

90 85

EAF (%)

80 75

System electrification EAF grows

70 65 60

BaU HT

55 50 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

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6. Results. Oil refining

Refineries HT  0.8 Mt of CO2 captured each period from 2020 (0.3% from the Spanish total emissions) BaU  No capture

New flexible refinery process (added in TIMES-Spain) is used  20% oil products demand.

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6. Results. Sensitivity analysis

Cost of CO2 captured using cement production process via dry route with OCC for different reductions of the total costs by 2050

LR: 0% // 12% // 20%

- 7%

-14%

(ECF, 2010), (IEA, 2004).

In 2050, OCC (it starts in 2030) If costs -10% 120 €/tCO2 capt If costs -20% 112 €/tCO2 capt 15


7. Conclusions

 HT scenario doubles the CO2 captured in BaU (41 vs 21 Mt)  Most of the CO2 captured comes from cement sector  In 2020 starts Post-combustion capture and, when it is available (2030) emerges the Oxyfuel combustion capture  Iron and steel sector uses more electricity when more CO2 restrictions take place. EAF grows  In oil refining sector capture appears in HT scenario only with a low contribution

 The cost of 1 ton of CO2 captured is very high: 202€ for PCC (2020) & 129€ for OCC (2030), both for cement processes. And 333€ for PCC (2020) in oil refining. 16


7. Conclusions

Due to the large amounts of emissions in the Spanish cement industry, this would be an optimal sector for deploying the CO2 capture in Spain. BUT…

PCC (in 2020): 202 €/tCO2

OCC (in 2030): 129 €/tCO2

20 €/tCO2 aprox.

2020 CO2 price projections

Note (26/06/2012): EUA: 8.02 €/tCO2 & CER: 3.98 €/tCO2 (bluenext.eu) 17


References

BdE, 2011. 23.11. Producción y consumo aparente de cemento y acero. Banco de España. http://www.bde.es/webbde/es/estadis/infoest/a2311.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) Bluenext.eu (last accesed 26/6/2012) http://www.bluenext.eu/ CEMBUREAU, 2010. Activity Report 2010. http://www.cembureau.be/sites/default/files/Activity_Report_2010.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) ECF, 2010. Roadmap 2050. A practical guide to prosperous low-carbon Europe. Technical Analysis. European Climate Foundation. http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume1_fullreport_PressPack.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) ETSAP, 2010. Iron and Steel. Technology Brief I02. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme. International Energy Agency. http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/e-techds/pdf/i02-iron&steel-gs-ad-gct.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) IEA, 2004. Prospects for CO2 capture and storage, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. International Energy Agency. IEA-OECD. http://www.gwpc.org/e-library/documents/co2/Report%20IEA%20CCS%20Prospects%2011-17-2004.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) IEA, 2008a. CO2 Capture and Storage: A key carbon abatement option. International Energy Agency. http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2008/CCS_2008.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) IEA, 2008b. CO2 Capture in the Cement Industry. International Energy Agency. Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, UK. IEA, 2009. Energy Technology Transitions for Industry. International Energy Agency. http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2104 (last accessed 4/6/2012) IEA database, 2009. Oil sector. http://www.iea.org/stats/oildata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=30 (last accessed 4/6/2012) http://www.iea.org/stats/oildata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=ES (last accessed 4/6/2012) IPCC, 2005. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. WMO. UNEP. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1gFp6Ioo3akWFVURndxRU5xU1E/edit?pli=1# (last accessed 4/6/2012) Loulou, R; Remne, U; Kanudia, A; Lehtila, A; Goldstein, G, 2005. Documentation for the TIMES Model Part I. ETSAP. http://www.etsap.org/Docs/TIMESDoc-Intro.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) MARM, 2011. Proyecciones de emisiones GEI España 2010-2020. Informe a CE. Artículo 3.2.(b) Decisión 280. (National communication to EC). Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs. http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/es/eu/colqfqaq/envtahcaq/Informe_Decision_2802004CE_Spain.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012) UNIDO, 2010. Global Technology Roadmap for CCS in Industry. Sectoral Assessment: Refineries. Det Norske Veritas Ltd, UK. United Nations for Industrial Development Organisation. http://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Services/Energy_and_Climate_Change/Energy_Efficiency/CCS/Refineries3.pdf (last accessed 4/6/2012)

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