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ENERGY SLIDESHOW Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Updated: November 13, 2017
ENERGY PRICES
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
BrentOil Crude Oil Brent &WTI WTI&Crude Brent (Nov 10 = $64.24)
Dollars per barrel 140
WTI (Nov 10 = $57.03)
120
95% confidence bands for WTI
100 80 60 40 20
0 2009
2010
2011
2012
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 11/10/17. Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.
HenryHub HubNatural & Marcellus Henry Gas Natural Gas Henry Hub (Nov 10 = $3.12)
Dollars per million British thermal units 7
Marcellus (Nov 10 = $1.17) 95% confidence bands for Henry Hub
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 11/10/17. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel Retail Gasoline & Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD
Gasoline
Diesel
$2.55
$2.88
1A
$2.60
$2.85
1B
$2.66
$3.02
1C
$2.45
$2.80
2
$2.53
$2.88
3
$2.30
$2.70
4
$2.54
$2.99
5
$3.08
$3.39
U.S.
$2.59
$2.92
1
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTES: Prices are for 11/13/17. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
GLOBAL PETROLEUM
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
World Oil Supply & Demand World Oil Supply & Demand Million barrels per day 102 101
Q3 2017 98.7
100 99 98 97
World production
98.3
96 95 94
World consumption
93 92
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014
2015
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2016
2017
2018
NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Implied Oil Stocks World OilChange Supplyin&World Demand Million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014
2015
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2016
2017
2018
NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Crude Oil Production OPECOPEC Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day 33.5
33.0 32.5
Oct 32.8
32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5
30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECDCommercial CommercialInventories Oil Inventories OECD Million barrels 3,200 3,100
3,000 2,900
Oct 2966
2,800 2,700
2010-2014 average
2,600 2,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Production Outages OECD Commercial Inventories Million barrels per day 3.0 OPEC
2.5
2.0 1.5
Oct 1.23
1.0 Non-OPEC
0.32
0.5 0.0 2013
2014
2015
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2016
2017
2018
NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
U.S. Oil & Gas Production U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day 11
U.S. natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 110
10
100
9
90
8
80
7
70
6
60
5
50
4
40
3
30
2
20
1 10 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Production Rig Count U.S. OilOil Production && Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day 17
U.S. oil rig count Number of active rigs 1,700
15
1,500
13
1,300
11
1,100
Aug 9.20
9
900 Oct 737
7 5
700 500
3 2013
2014
2015
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2016
2017
2018
300 2019
NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 11/7/17. Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Oil & Gas Employment Gasoline Demand Number of jobs (thousands) 420 380 340 300 260
Support activities for oil and gas operations
220
180
Oil and gas extraction
Sep 229 Oct 180
140 100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Crude Oil & Product Inventories Million barrels 550
2010-2014 range
2010-2014 average
2017
2016
2015
500
450
Aug 468
Sep 464
Aug
Sep
Oct 455
400
350
300 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
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Jun
Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 11/8/17. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Inventories Gasoline Demand 2010-2014 range
Trillion cubic feet 4.5
2010-2014 average
4.0
Aug 3.3
3.5
2017 Sep 3.5
2016
2015
Oct 3.8
3.0
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 11/8/17. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels 270
2010-2014 range
2010-2014 average
2017
2016
2015
260 250 240 230 Aug 227
220
Sep 220
210
Oct 213
200 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
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Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 11/8/17. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Distillate Gasoline DemandInventories 2010-2014 range
Million barrels 180
2010-2014 average
2017
2016
2015
170
160 150
Aug 148
140 Sep 135
130 120
Oct 129
110 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
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Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 11/8/17. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Vehicle Miles Traveled Gasoline Demand Billion miles traveled 270 265
Aug 268
260 255 250 245 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
Gasoline Consumption Gasoline Demand Million barrels per day 9.8
2010-2014 range
2010-2014 average
2017
2016
2015
9.6 Aug 9.57
9.4
9.2
Sep 9.48
Oct 9.35
9.0 8.8 8.6
8.4 8.2 8.0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 11/8/17. Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
REGIONAL ACTIVITY
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
Oil & Gas Production TexasTexas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 4.0
Texas natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 40
3.5
35
3.0
30
2.5
25
2.0
20
1.5
15
1.0 1981
10 1985
1989
1993
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Texas Production Count Texas OilOil Production && RigRig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 9.5
Texas rig count Number of active rigs 950
8.5
850
7.5
750
6.5
650
5.5
550
4.5
Oct 450 441 350 Aug 3.37 250
3.5 2.5 1.5 2013
2014
2015
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2016
2017
150 2018
NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil & Gas Employment Texas Mining Sector Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 210 190 170 150
Sep 141.57
Support activities for mining
130 110 90
Oil and gas extraction 77.30
70 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
12-Month Total Rig Change by County
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
*Change in total rigs, from 10/28/2016 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
3-Month Total Rig Change by County
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*Change in total rigs, from 7/28/2017 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
12-Month Oil Rig Change by County
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
*Change in oil rigs, from 10/28/2016 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
3-Month Oil Rig Change by County
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
*Change in oil rigs, from 7/28/2017 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
12-Month Gas Rig Change by County
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
*Change in gas rigs, from 10/28/2016 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
3-Month Gas Rig Change by County
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
*Change in gas rigs, from 7/28/2017 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Crude Oil Production by State
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for August 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by State
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for August 2017. Series depicted is marketed natural gas production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Crude Oil Production by Region Million barrels per day 3.0 2.5
Permian Basin
2.0 1.5
Eagle Ford
1.0
Bakken
0.5
Niobrara Other areas
0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
NOTE: Series depict estimates after August 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by Region Billion cubic feet per day 30
Appalachia
25 20 15 Permian Basin Haynesville
10 5 0 2007
Other areas Eagle Ford 2008
2009
2010
2011
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
NOTE: Series depict estimates after August 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Energy Survey Business Activity In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased? Diffusion index 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1 2016 -20 -40 -42.1 -60 -80 -100
13.8 Q2 2016
26.7
Q3 2016
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
40.1
41.8
37.3
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
27.3
Q3 2017
NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Breakeven Prices for New Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel 100 90 Permian 80 (Midland) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Other U.S. (non-shale) SCOOP/ STACK
$46
$47
13
8
Permian (Delaware) Eagle Ford $48 $48
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
4 10 Number of responses
Permian (Central Platform) $50
$53
13
40
Other U.S. (shale) $55
8
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 62 E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? Dollars per barrel 70 Permian 60 (Midland)
Permian (Delaware)
SCOOP/ STACK
50 40 30
$24
Permian (Central Platform)
Other U.S. Other U.S. (shale) (non-shale)
Eagle Ford
$27
$29
7
5
$33
$33
$35
$38
20 10 0 13
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
9 11 Number of responses
8
39
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 60 E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Additional Resources •
Energy Indicators –
•
Quarterly Energy Update –
•
A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District
Energy in the 11th District –
•
Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets
Dallas Fed Energy Survey –
•
A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector
Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin
Other energy articles and research
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