May 31, 2013 ... Energy transitions in France and Germany. Convergences, divergences & impact
on Europe. Andreas Kuhlmann. Director Strategy and Politics.
Energy transitions in France and Germany Convergences, divergences & impact on Europe Andreas Kuhlmann Director Strategy and Politics Paris, 31 May 2013
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
www.bdew.de
For me „Energiewende“ means first and foremost... Nuclear phase-out Development of renewable energies Achieving climate targets
By political party 52
47
38
32
25
22
all
36 37
34 36
21
CDU/CSU
SPD
32
26
31 34 17
Linke
Grüne
22
27
Piraten n=1.010
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
31 May 2013 Page 2
Energy concept 2010 / overview Overview of the objectives: Reduction of greenhouse gases: 2020: 40%, 2030: 55%, 2040: 70%, 2050: 80-95 % Expansion goals for renewable energy: Gross final energy consumption: 2020: 18%, 2030: 30%, 2040: 45%, 2050: 60% Gross electricity consumption: 2020: 35%, 2030: 50%, 2040: 65%. 2050: 80% Reduction of heating needs: 2020: 20%, 2050: 80% (primary energy needs) Doubling the rate of energy-related renovation: from today‘s 1% to 2% p.a.
Reduction of primary energy consumption by 20% by 2020 and by 50% by 2050 Increasing energy productivity by 2.1 % p.a. Reduction of electricity consumption (10% by 2020, 25% by 2050)
E-Mobility: One million e-cars by 2020
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
31 May 2013 Page 3
Energy concept 2010 / overview
In summary:
Very ambitious!
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
31 May 2013 Seite 4
The „German Energiewende“: 160 000
Roads Act
Renewable Energies Act (EEG)
140 000
?
120 000
MW
100 000
Photovoltaics
Maximum load: ca. 83.000 MW
80 000 2012
Wind offshore
60 000 Minimum load: ca. 35.000 MW
40 000
Wind onshore
2000
20 000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0
Thermal waste treatment
Water power >5 MW*
Water power 1 GWh yearly consumption • Additionally: Railways • International competition…
* Economic activities defined in sections B (mining and quarrying) and C (manufacturing), German Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008) Sources: BDEW (own calculation based on forecast data for EEG apportitionment 2013 of 15/10/2012), BAFA, Stat. Bundesamt BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
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Financial reliefs for power-intensive industry EEG 2013: Who will be „relieved“? Industrial electricity consumption in 2013 according to EEG forecast 2013: 243,1 TWh Relief from EEG apportionment according to §37 EEG: Industries consuming approx. 30-40 TWh from own electricity generation plants
16%
Reduced EEG apport. 10%/0.5277 ct/kWh: 9.9 TWh
4% Reduced EEG apport. 1%/0.05277 ct/kWh: 20.9 TWh
Limited EEG apport. 0.05 ct/kWh: 60.6 TWh
8%
243.1 TWh
47%
Full EEG apportionment/5.277 ct/kWh: 113.8 TWh
25%
Full EEG apportionment for nearly half of the industrial electricity consumption! Without exeptional rules according to §40 EEG 2012, the surcharge in 2013 would be 4.23 ct/kWh, thus 1.05 ct/kWh lower. Source: BDEW (own calculation based on EEG 2013 forecast data of 15/10/2012) BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
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Total burden of taxes and levies Total electricity price burden in billion Euros (without VAT*) 31,6 7,00
22,9 17,1 11,4 6,9 4,1 2,3 0,28 2,00
1,82 0,26 2,00
3,36 0,61 0,90 2,05
8,5 4,32 0,99 1,15 2,04
11,9
12,3
12,9
9,5 5,10 0,67 1,63 2,08
6,53 0,76 1,91 2,15
6,60
6,46
0,77 2,30
0,85 2,92
2,22
2,07
6,27
14,3
13,5
13,8
6,35
6,26
6,28
7,25 0,15
23,9
0,85 0,81 0,41
6,97 0,44 0,26
6,17
0,79
0,70
0,52
0,63
3,73
4,30
4,88
5,27
2,09
2,14
2,17
2,16
20,36 0,45 13,35
14,11
2,15
2,15
8,33
2,11
2,15
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012**2013** Concession fee
EEG apport.***
KWK surcharge
§19 surcharge
Offshore surcharge****
Electricity tax*****
* Burden of VAT 2011 rd. 7.5 bn Euros ** Provisional estimation *** until 2009 additional costs versus energy exchange price; from 2010 application of the Ordinance on a Nationwide Equalisation Scheme; 2012/2013 according to EEG apportitionment forecast **** 2013: Estimation ***** 2012/13: according to AK „Steuerschätzung“ (committee for tax estimation of the Federal Ministry of Finance), May 2013 Source: BDEW, As of: 05/2013
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
31 May 2013 Seite 32
International Prices of energy
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Autor der Präsentation
28.02.2012
www.bdew.de Seite 33
Integration of the European energy exchange until 2014 and beyond… CWE
Nordic
UK-CH
CEE
CSE
Targets of market integration in the European energy exchange:
By end of 2014: European Day-ahead
SWE
trade (implicit auction and price coupling)
Intra-day trade of excess capacities on 700 1500 610 600 1100
1000
2300 800 600 2200 1000
2000
3500 800 3200 1200 900 285 2575
an integrated market platform
Establishment of a cross-border electricity balancing market
4165
1300 (2600)
CWE – Central Western Europe CEE – Central Eastern Europe CSE – Central South Europe SWE – South Western Europe
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
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BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA); consumption not clear
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
8,67 8,74 8,76
9,03 9,09 9,16 9,47 9,66 9,96
Netherlands France Poland
Greece Slovenia Great Britain Switzerland Hungary Belgium
11,10 11,31 11,51
Chile Germany Czech Rep.
Italy
Japan
12,88
12,84
10,96
Ireland
Slovakia
10,70
Spain
10,01
8,44
Luxembourg
Portugal
8,42
Mexico
9,97
8,29
Denmark
Turkey
8,18
Finland
7,50
Sweden
5,30
New Zealand 6,98
5,12
Norway
Israel
5,01
USA
Price in €cent/kWh
20,09
International energy prices for the industry: Electricity industry 2011
* Exchange rate US$/Euro average 2011
31 May 2013 Page 35
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA); consumption not clear
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
52,06
2011
Switzerland
50,04
43,32
South Korea Sweden
41,97
40,29
Greece Slovenia
39,12
Germany
37,06
France
36,13
Slovakia
36,56
36,11
Portugal
Czech Rep.
35,99
32,51
Finland Luxembourg
31,59
Ireland
27,72
Netherlands
31,39
27,14
Spain
Hungary
26,22
Belgium
30,63
25,55
Great Britain
Poland
24,34
17,09
14,36
11,09
Turkey
New Zealand
USA
Canada
Price in Euro/MWh gross calorific value
International energy prices for the industry: Gas industry
* Exchange rate US$/Euro average 2011
31 May 2013 Page 36
Summary
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Autor der Präsentation
28.02.2012
www.bdew.de Seite 37
Summary Problems:
Uncertainty (security of supply, prices, market design…) What will be our future market design (including Renewables)?
European Framework conditions not precise enough Growing prices for energy
International competition of German economy Economic pressure on germans small (but many) industrial champions
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
31 May 2013 Seite 38
Summary Hope:
Growing awareness of the challenges we are facing. Financial reliefs for companies under competition.
Still: Germany‘s energy security of supply is one of the best in the world.
Innovation: Energiewende is one of the most interesting and challenging industrial projects of our time.
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany
31 May 2013 Seite 39
Thank you for your attention! BDEW German Association for Energy and Water Industries Reinhardtstraße 32 10117 Berlin Phone +49 30 / 300199-0 www.bdew.de
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.
Andreas Kuhlmann
31 May 2013
www.bdew.de Seite 40