Energy transitions in France and Germany - cgemp

Energy transitions in France and Germany Convergences, divergences & impact on Europe Andreas Kuhlmann Director Strategy and Politics Paris, 31 May 2013

BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.

www.bdew.de

For me „Energiewende“ means first and foremost... Nuclear phase-out Development of renewable energies Achieving climate targets

By political party 52

47

38

32

25

22

all

36 37

34 36

21

CDU/CSU

SPD

32

26

31 34 17

Linke

Grüne

22

27

Piraten n=1.010


Andreas Kuhlmann Energy transitions in France and Germany

31 May 2013 Page 2

Energy concept 2010 / overview Overview of the objectives:  Reduction of greenhouse gases: 2020: 40%, 2030: 55%, 2040: 70%, 2050: 80-95 %  Expansion goals for renewable energy:  Gross final energy consumption: 2020: 18%, 2030: 30%, 2040: 45%, 2050: 60%  Gross electricity consumption: 2020: 35%, 2030: 50%, 2040: 65%. 2050: 80%  Reduction of heating needs: 2020: 20%, 2050: 80% (primary energy needs)  Doubling the rate of energy-related renovation: from today‘s 1% to 2% p.a.

 Reduction of primary energy consumption by 20% by 2020 and by 50% by 2050  Increasing energy productivity by 2.1 % p.a.  Reduction of electricity consumption (10% by 2020, 25% by 2050)

 E-Mobility: One million e-cars by 2020



31 May 2013 Page 3

Energy concept 2010 / overview

In summary:

Very ambitious!



31 May 2013 Seite 4

The „German Energiewende“: 160 000

Roads Act

Renewable Energies Act (EEG)

140 000

?

120 000

MW

100 000

Photovoltaics

Maximum load: ca. 83.000 MW

80 000 2012

Wind offshore

60 000 Minimum load: ca. 35.000 MW

40 000

Wind onshore

2000

20 000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0

Thermal waste treatment

Water power >5 MW*

Water power 1 GWh yearly consumption • Additionally: Railways • International competition…

* Economic activities defined in sections B (mining and quarrying) and C (manufacturing), German Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008) Sources: BDEW (own calculation based on forecast data for EEG apportitionment 2013 of 15/10/2012), BAFA, Stat. Bundesamt BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.


31 May 2013 Seite 30

Financial reliefs for power-intensive industry EEG 2013: Who will be „relieved“? Industrial electricity consumption in 2013 according to EEG forecast 2013: 243,1 TWh Relief from EEG apportionment according to §37 EEG: Industries consuming approx. 30-40 TWh from own electricity generation plants

16%

Reduced EEG apport. 10%/0.5277 ct/kWh: 9.9 TWh

4% Reduced EEG apport. 1%/0.05277 ct/kWh: 20.9 TWh

Limited EEG apport. 0.05 ct/kWh: 60.6 TWh

8%

243.1 TWh

47%

Full EEG apportionment/5.277 ct/kWh: 113.8 TWh

25%

 Full EEG apportionment for nearly half of the industrial electricity consumption!  Without exeptional rules according to §40 EEG 2012, the surcharge in 2013 would be 4.23 ct/kWh, thus 1.05 ct/kWh lower. Source: BDEW (own calculation based on EEG 2013 forecast data of 15/10/2012) BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V.



Total burden of taxes and levies Total electricity price burden in billion Euros (without VAT*) 31,6 7,00

22,9 17,1 11,4 6,9 4,1 2,3 0,28 2,00

1,82 0,26 2,00

3,36 0,61 0,90 2,05

8,5 4,32 0,99 1,15 2,04

11,9

12,3

12,9

9,5 5,10 0,67 1,63 2,08

6,53 0,76 1,91 2,15

6,60

6,46

0,77 2,30

0,85 2,92

2,22

2,07

6,27

14,3

13,5

13,8

6,35

6,26

6,28

7,25 0,15

23,9

0,85 0,81 0,41

6,97 0,44 0,26

6,17

0,79

0,70

0,52

0,63

3,73

4,30

4,88

5,27

2,09

2,14

2,17

2,16

20,36 0,45 13,35

14,11

2,15

2,15

8,33

2,11

2,15

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012**2013** Concession fee

EEG apport.***

KWK surcharge

§19 surcharge

Offshore surcharge****

Electricity tax*****

* Burden of VAT 2011 rd. 7.5 bn Euros ** Provisional estimation *** until 2009 additional costs versus energy exchange price; from 2010 application of the Ordinance on a Nationwide Equalisation Scheme; 2012/2013 according to EEG apportitionment forecast **** 2013: Estimation ***** 2012/13: according to AK „Steuerschätzung“ (committee for tax estimation of the Federal Ministry of Finance), May 2013 Source: BDEW, As of: 05/2013




International Prices of energy


Autor der Präsentation

28.02.2012

www.bdew.de Seite 33

Integration of the European energy exchange until 2014 and beyond… CWE

Nordic

UK-CH

CEE

CSE

Targets of market integration in the European energy exchange:

 By end of 2014: European Day-ahead

SWE

trade (implicit auction and price coupling)

 Intra-day trade of excess capacities on 700 1500 610 600 1100

1000

2300 800 600 2200 1000

2000

3500 800 3200 1200 900 285 2575

an integrated market platform

 Establishment of a cross-border electricity balancing market

4165

1300 (2600)

CWE – Central Western Europe CEE – Central Eastern Europe CSE – Central South Europe SWE – South Western Europe




BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA); consumption not clear


8,67 8,74 8,76

9,03 9,09 9,16 9,47 9,66 9,96

Netherlands France Poland

Greece Slovenia Great Britain Switzerland Hungary Belgium

11,10 11,31 11,51

Chile Germany Czech Rep.

Italy

Japan

12,88

12,84

10,96

Ireland

Slovakia

10,70

Spain

10,01

8,44

Luxembourg

Portugal

8,42

Mexico

9,97

8,29

Denmark

Turkey

8,18

Finland

7,50

Sweden

5,30

New Zealand 6,98

5,12

Norway

Israel

5,01

USA

Price in €cent/kWh

20,09

International energy prices for the industry: Electricity industry 2011

* Exchange rate US$/Euro average 2011

31 May 2013 Page 35

BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA); consumption not clear


52,06

2011

Switzerland

50,04

43,32

South Korea Sweden

41,97

40,29

Greece Slovenia

39,12

Germany

37,06

France

36,13

Slovakia

36,56

36,11

Portugal

Czech Rep.

35,99

32,51

Finland Luxembourg

31,59

Ireland

27,72

Netherlands

31,39

27,14

Spain

Hungary

26,22

Belgium

30,63

25,55

Great Britain

Poland

24,34

17,09

14,36

11,09

Turkey

New Zealand

USA

Canada

Price in Euro/MWh gross calorific value

International energy prices for the industry: Gas industry

* Exchange rate US$/Euro average 2011

31 May 2013 Page 36

Summary


Autor der Präsentation

28.02.2012


Summary Problems:

 Uncertainty (security of supply, prices, market design…)  What will be our future market design (including Renewables)?

 European Framework conditions not precise enough  Growing prices for energy

 International competition of German economy  Economic pressure on germans small (but many) industrial champions




Summary Hope:

 Growing awareness of the challenges we are facing.  Financial reliefs for companies under competition.

 Still: Germany‘s energy security of supply is one of the best in the world.

 Innovation: Energiewende is one of the most interesting and challenging industrial projects of our time.




Thank you for your attention! BDEW German Association for Energy and Water Industries Reinhardtstraße 32 10117 Berlin Phone +49 30 / 300199-0 www.bdew.de


Andreas Kuhlmann

31 May 2013
