Moreover, the baby boom generation will shortly reach pension- able age. ..... The birth wave immediately after the Second World War leads to a situation where ...
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Baseline 85
95% confidence level 80
67% confidence level 75
70 2005
2020
2035
2050
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5
Closed schemes 4
Open schemes
3
2
1
0 2000
2004
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8]Vgi'#(IgVYZ"d[[h^cVeZch^dcYZVa Average benefit level
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Average contribution level
Volatility of contributions
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6ii^ijYZidlVgYheZch^dc EZgXZci 7
I’m not concerned about my pension, I’ll see when I get there
7
44
I don’t need to know the details as long as I can trust that it is properly arranged I try to stay informed about developments concerning my pension
42
Don’t know/no reply
29
I’d rather pay more for a guaranteed benefit I’d rather pay less for a benefit without guarantees 56
Don’t know/no reply
15
25
I prefer a defined-benefit scheme I prefer a defined-contribution scheme Don’t know/no reply
12
63
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Initial funding ratio = 130% 60
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Indexation cut
370
30
320
25
270
20
220
15
170
10
120
5
70
0 02
14
26
38
02
50
14
26
Real funding ratio
Contribution (% of gross wages)
370
30
320
25
270
20
220
15
170
10
120
5
70
50
38
50
0 02
99%
38
14
90%
26
38
50%
50
10%
02
14
1%
26
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Regional Communities
Agriculture and industry
Strong Europe
Health care
Transatlantic markets
Global economy
- 800
- 600
- 400
- 200
0
200
400
600
800
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cVYZ" fjViZeZch^dc[jcYÄcVcX^c\bVn]VbeZgcZXZhhVgnhZXidgVah]^[ih#cXgZVh^c\XdgedgViZXgdhh"WdgYZgVXi^k^inVcYVcZkZgbdgZ^ciZ\gViZYaVWdjgbVg" `ZibVnegdbei^cXgZVh^c\]Vgbdc^hVi^dcd[eZch^dchX]ZbZhl^i]^c:jgdeZ#I]Z X]VaaZc\Z^hidgZhedcYÅZm^Wanidi]^hX]Vc\^c\Zck^gdcbZciVcYidZchjgZi]Vii]Z higdc\ed^cihd[djgeZch^dchnhiZb·ZheZX^Vaan^ihXdaaZXi^kZcVijgZ·VgZcdiVWVc" YdcZY# 7dm*#&L]Vi^hi]ZYZ\gZZd[hda^YVg^inVbdc\i]Z9jiX]VhgZ\VgYh eZch^dch4 >cigV" VcY ^ciZg\ZcZgVi^dcVa hda^YVg^in ^h Vbdc\ i]Z XdgcZghidcZh d[ XdaaZXi^kZ eZch^dchX]ZbZh#I]^h^hbdhiXaZVganZk^YZci[dgeVn"Vh"ndj"\dhnhiZbh!l]ZgZ WZcZÄihVgZÄcVcXZY[gdbXjggZciXdcig^Wji^dcheV^YWni]ZZXdcdb^XVaanVXi^kZ \ZcZgVi^dc#NZi!XdaaZXi^kZ[jcYZYhnhiZbhVahdgZandcg^h`"h]Vg^c\!^ci]Vi!^ci]Z ZkZcid[hZiWVX`h!gZXdjghZbVnWZ]VYid\gdjehZc_dn^c\V]^\]ZgYZ\gZZd[ ÅZm^W^a^in! hjX] Vh i]Z ndjc\Zg \ZcZgVi^dch dg ]^\]Zg"^cXdbZ \gdjeh# I]ZgZ ^h dcZbV_dgXdcY^i^dc!]dlZkZg!VcYi]Vi^hi]Vii]ZhZ\gdjehgZbV^cegZeVgZYid Zc\V\Z^cg^h`"h]Vg^c\# Younger people must continue to show solidarity with the elderly, even if the costs of pensions and social security were to go up significantly
The burden of the ageing population has to be shouldered to a disproportionate extent by younger people
>65 years of age
>65 years of age
45-65 years of age
45-65 years of age
25-45 years of age
25-45 years of age
ci]Vi8]VeiZg!dcanVkZgV\ZhlZgZh]dlc#7Zadl! i]Z[jaaY^hig^Wji^dchVgZ\^kZc[dgi]ZgZVa[jcY^c\gVi^d!i]Z^cYZmVi^dcXjiVcY eZch^dc Xdcig^Wji^dch# I]Z 8]Vgih h]dl i]Z VkZgV\Z YdiiZY a^cZ VcY i]Z VgZV WZilZZci]ZÄghiVcYi]Zc^cZin"c^ci]eZgXZci^aZ# Real funding ratio Baseline scenario
Retirement age at 67
1 percentage point higher inflation
1 percentage point lower interest rate
1 percentage point lower equity premium
75% bonds
No duration gap
,'
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 02
Pension contribution
Indexation cut 30
30
20
20 10
10
0
0 17
32
02
47
17
32
47
30
30
20
20
02
47
17
32
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30
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20
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30
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0
0 32
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0 32
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0
0 32
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0
0 32
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10
17
02
0
0 32
47
10
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32
0
0 32
17
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32
47
I]ZhjhiV^cVW^a^ind[i]Z9jiX]eZch^dchnhiZb
6ccZmbBVg`ZY"id"bVg`ZikVajVi^dcd[a^VW^a^i^Zh 7Zadl!i]Zeg^cX^eaZd[i]ZgZea^XVi^c\edgi[da^dVhY^hXjhhZY^c8]VeiZg(^hZmeaV^cZY i]gdj\]Vh^beaZZmVbeaZ#HjeedhZi]Vi!^cnZVg&*!VeZch^dc[jcYl^aa]VkZVa^VW^a" ^ind[&%%idVXd]dgid[eZch^dceaVcbZbWZgh#>ci]ZYZiZgb^cVi^dcd[i]^hXVh] Ådl!VXXdjci]VhWZZciV`Zcd[i]ZbdgiVa^ing^h`[dgZVX]bZbWZgWZilZZccdl VcY&*nZVgh]ZcXZ#>cVYY^i^dc!i]ZZmeZXiZY^begdkZbZci^ci]Zhjgk^kVagViZdkZg i]ZcZmi&*nZVgh]VhVahdWZZcVaadlZY[dg!\^kZci]Z[VXii]Vi!dcVkZgV\Z!eZdeaZ iZcYida^kZadc\ZgVhi^bZ\dZhdc#>[VXijVabdgiVa^inZfjVahZmeZXiZYbdgiVa^in!i]Z eZch^dc[jcYl^aaY^hWjghZVcVbdjcid[ZmVXian&%%^c&*nZVgh¼i^bZ#>[VXijVabdg" iVa^in^hadlZgi]VcZmeZXiZY!V]^\]ZgVbdjcibjhiWZY^hWjghZYl]ZgZVh!^[^i^h ]^\]Zgi]VcZmeZXiZY!VadlZgVbdjcil^aaWZY^hWjghZY#=dlZkZg!VY^hWjghZbZci d[&%%^c&*nZVgh¼i^bZgZegZhZcihi]ZWZhiZhi^bViZ# I]Z eZch^dc [jcY XVc ZmVXian ]ZY\Z i]^h a^VW^a^in Wn ^ckZhi^c\ ^c V oZgd"Xdjedc WdcYi]Vil^aaeVnZmVXian&%%^c&*nZVgh¼i^bZ#I]^hX]d^XZ^c[Vkdjgd[VWdcY l^i]djieZg^dY^XXdjedceVnbZcih^hYjZidi]Z[VXii]Vii]ZeZch^dc[jcYYdZhcdi ]VkZidbV`ZVcn^ciZg^bY^hWjghZbZciWZilZZccdlVcY&*nZVgh]ZcXZ Xdjedc eVnbZcihldjaY^beangZ^ckZhibZcig^h` #I]ZbVg`ZikVajZd[i]^hoZgd"Xdjedc WdcY ^h *%! XdggZhedcY^c\ id V &*"nZVg hedi gViZ hZZ i]Z ib^\]iWZ cdiZYi]ViY^hXdjci^c\i]ZXVh]ÅdlhidegZhZcikVajZegdk^YZhVc^ch^\]icdidcan ^cidi]ZbVg`ZY"id"bVg`ZikVajZd[i]Z\jVgVciZZYa^VW^a^i^ZhWjiVahd^cidi]ZhZc" h^i^k^in d[ i]ZhZ a^VW^a^i^Zh id X]Vc\Zh ^c i]Z iZgb higjXijgZ d[ ^ciZgZhi gViZh# ;dg ^chiVcXZ!^[bVg`Zi^ciZgZhigViZhlZgZidYgde[gdb)#,(id(#,(!i]ZbVg`ZY"id" bVg`ZikVajZd[i]Za^VW^a^inldjaY\djeid*,#,# ;dgi]ZejgedhZhd[i]ZkVajVi^dcd[VcjcXdcY^i^dcVaan^cYZmZYeZch^dca^VW^a^in! ^i^hVhhjbZYi]Vii]ZgZ^hVoZgd"Xdjedc^cYZm"a^c`ZYWdcYl^i]VbVijg^ind[&* nZVghl]dhZeg^cX^eVa^hVY_jhiZYVccjVaanWni]ZgViZd[^cÅVi^dc#I]ZbVg`ZY"id" bVg`ZikVajZd[i]^hWdcY^h++#-!XdggZhedcY^c\idVgZVagViZd[^ciZgZhid['#,(# I]ZgZaVi^dch]^eVbdc\i]ZhZkVg^VWaZh^hVh[daadlh/ 66.8 =
100 (1+0.0273)15
I]Vi ^h Vahd i]Z bVg`ZY"id"bVg`Zi kVajZ d[ i]Z jcXdcY^i^dcVaan ^cYZmZY eZch^dc a^VW^a^in^ci]ZZmVbeaZ#7n^ckZhi^c\^cVc^cYZm"a^c`ZYWdcY!i]ZWZcZÄX^Vgn^h hjgZ id gZXZ^kZ Vc ^cÅVi^dc"egdd[ eVnbZci ^c nZVg &*! l]dhZ ejgX]Vh^c\ edlZg ZfjVahXjggZciejgX]Vh^c\edlZg#>i^hZk^YZcii]ViV[jaan^cYZmZYa^VW^a^in]VhV ,(
]^\]ZgkVajZi]VcVcdb^cVaa^VW^a^in#I]ZbVg`ZY"id"bVg`ZikVajZd[i]ZgZVaa^VW^a" ^inXVcVahdWZYZiZgb^cZYWnVccjVaan^cYZm^c\i]ZXVh]Ådld[&%%VcYi]ZcY^h" Xdjci^c\^iidegZhZcikVajZVii]Zcdb^cVagViZd[^ciZgZhid[)#,(#>[i]ZXVh]Ådl d[&%%^ci]ZZmVbeaZ^h^cYZmZYWn&#.*ZkZgnnZVg!i]ZXVaXjaVi^dcegdYjXZhi]Z hVbZgZhjai/ 66.8 =
100*(1+0.0195)15 1.0473 – 1 *100% 15 #I]ZeZgXZciV\Zd[&#.*ZfjVah # (1+0.0273) 1.0273
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