All models failed to predict leaching of dichlorprop if laboratory data on degradation were used as model input. Laboratory conditions do not describe field ...
5,90UHSRUW (QYLURQPHQWDOULVNDVVHVVPHQWIRU YHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQDOSURGXFWV 3DUW9DOLGDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDO H[SRVXUHPRGHOV 0+000RQWIRUWV$-9HUVFKRRU
7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\RUGHUDQGIRUWKHDFFRXQWRIDFFRXQWRIWKH(8 (QHUJ\(QYLURQPHQWDQG6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQWSURJUDPPHRIWKH)LIWKIUDPHZRUN 3URJUDPPHZLWKLQWKHSURMHFW(QYLURQPHQWDO5LVN$VVHVVPHQWRI9HWHULQDU\0HGLFLQHVLQ 6OXGJH(5$90,6FRQWUDFWQXPEHU(9.&7 DQGRIWKH1HWKHUODQGV 0LQLVWU\RI9520ZLWKLQWKHSURMHFW0'HYHORSPHQWRI5LVN$VVHVVPHQW 0HWKRGRORJ\ 7KHDXWKRUVDUHVROHO\UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHFRQWHQWVRIWKHUHSRUWZKLFKGRHVQRWUHSUHVHQWWKH RSLQLRQRIWKH&RPPXQLW\ 5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQH WHOHID[
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
&RQWHQWV 6DPHQYDWWLQJ
6XPPDU\
,QWURGXFWLRQ
6FRSHRIWKHUHSRUW
5LVNDVVHVVPHQWDQGYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHV
5HJXODWRU\REMHFWLYHVRIPRGHOOLQJ
7KHSXUSRVHRIWKHPRGHOOLQJ WKHGHVLUHGOHYHORITXDOLW\LQWKHHQYLURQPHQW
0HPEHUVWDWHV¶XVHRIH[SRVXUHPRGHOV
$GYDQFHGPRGHOVZLWKSRWHQWLDOIRUYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHVULVNDVVHVVPHQW
0RGHOW\SHV
0RGHOYDOLGDWLRQ 'HILQLWLRQV &RQFHSWXDOYDOLGDWLRQ )XQFWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQ 9DOLGDWLRQRIVFHQDULRV
(QYLURQPHQWDOGDWD
8VHDQGHPLVVLRQRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHV
6OXUU\VWRUDJHSURGXFWLRQDQGUHPRYDO
6XEVWDQFHEHKDYLRXULQVOXUU\
)DWHRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHVLQVOXUU\ZDWHUDQGVRLO /DERUDWRU\GHJUDGDWLRQLQVOXUU\VRLODQGZDWHU /DERUDWRU\VRUSWLRQLQVOXUU\DQGVRLO 8.O\VLPHWHUVWXG\ 8.ILHOGVWXG\
7LHU,PRGHOV
6RLOH[SRVXUHPRGHOV &RQFHSWXDODOJRULWKPLFDQGVRIWZDUHYDOLGDWLRQ 3DUDPHWHULVDWLRQRIVRLOH[SRVXUHPRGHOV )XQFWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQRIVOXUU\DQGVRLOPRGHOV
6XUIDFHZDWHUH[SRVXUHPRGHOV 7KH(0($VXUIDFHZDWHUPRGHOV 9HW3HF )XQFWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQRIVXUIDFHZDWHUPRGHOV
*URXQGZDWHUH[SRVXUHPRGHOV
&RQFOXVLRQV
7LHU,,PRGHOV
3(&JURXQGZDWHUFDOFXODWLRQVXVLQJ)2&86VFHQDULRV 6FHQDULRV
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW 6XEVWDQFHV 5HVXOWV
6LPXODWLRQRIDO\VLPHWHUH[SHULPHQW *HQHUDOVLPXODWLRQSURFHGXUH 0HDVXUHPHQWVLQWKHO\VLPHWHUVRLO 6LPXODWLRQRIWKHO\VLPHWHUVWXG\
5HILQHGFDOFXODWLRQVRI3(&JZ
'LVFXVVLRQ
'LVFXVVLRQDQGFRQFOXVLRQV
/LWHUDWXUH
$QQH[,/LWHUDWXUHUHYLHZRIHQYLURQPHQWDOUHVLGXHVRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHV
,8VHDQGHPLVVLRQRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHV
,6OXUU\VWRUDJHSURGXFWLRQDQGUHPRYDO
,6XEVWDQFHEHKDYLRXULQVOXUU\
,5HVLGXHVRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHVLQVRLOV
,/DERUDWRU\GHJUDGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVZLWKWHWUDF\FOLQHVVXOSKRQDPLGHVDQGW\ORVLQ
,6RUSWLRQRIWHWUDF\FOLQHVVXOSKRQDPLGHVDQGW\ORVLQ
$QQH[,,0RGHOGHVFULSWLRQVDQGLQSXW
,,3($5/
,,35=0
,,3(/02
,,&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRI)2&86VWDQGDUGVFHQDULRV
,,6XEVWDQFHSURSHUWLHV
$QQH[,,,8.VRLOWDEOHVDQGILJXUHV
,,,'HVFULSWLRQRIFOD\VRLOSURILOHLQ8.ILHOGH[SHULPHQW
,,,'HVFULSWLRQRIVDQG\VRLOSURILOHLQ8.ILHOGDQGO\VLPHWHUH[SHULPHQW
,,,6DPSOHFROOHFWLRQ
,,,)LJXUHVO\VLPHWHUOHDFKDWH
$SSHQGL[
0DLOLQJOLVW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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sLQGLJHQ YDQ GH VWXGLH EHOHPPHUW GH YROOHGLJH H[SUHVVLH YDQ KHW QHHUZDDUWVH WUDQVSRUW 7HQ WZHHGH GH RQ]HNHUKHLG LQ GH DGVRUSWLHSURFHVVHQ HQ ±SDUDPHWHU LV YDQ JURRW EHODQJ LYRRU HHQ EHWURXZEDUH VLPXODWLH 'H VLPXODWLH WRRQGH DDQ GDW KHW DGVRUSWLHPHFKDQLVPHEHNHQGPRHW]LMQHQGDWKHWPRGHOLQVWDDWPRHW]LMQGDWSURFHVJRHGWH EHVFKULMYHQ %RYHQGLHQ PRHW KHW H[SHULPHQW DDQ ]HNHUH HLVHQ YROGRHQ *HPHWHQ FRQFHQWUDWLHV GLHQHQ YHU ERYHQ GH GHWHFWLHOLPLHW WH OLJJHQ HQ GH XLWVSRHOLQJ PRHW GRRUJDDQ WRWGDW WHQPLQVWH FRQFHQWUDWLHSLHNHQ YDQ ]RZHO GH WUDFHU DOV GH VWRI ZDDUJHQRPHQ ]LMQ 2QGDQNV GH WHNRUWNRPLQJHQ YDQ GH FDVXV LV GH SRWHQWLsOH EUXLNEDDUKHLG YDQ XLWVSRHOLQJVPRGHOOHQ YRRU JHZDVEHVFKHUPLQJVPLGGHOHQ LQ KHW DOJHPHHQ HQ YDQ 3($5/ LQ KHWELM]RQGHUDDQJHWRRQG
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
&RPPRQO\UHIHUUHGWRDVWKH(XURSHDQ0HGLFLQHV(YDOXDWLRQ$JHQF\ &RPPRQO\UHIHUUHGWRDVWKH9HWHULQDU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ+DUPRQLVDWLRQ
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
,VWKH903H[HPSWIURPWKH
,VWKH903DQDWXUDOVXEVWDQFH
1R
QHHGIRUDQ(, $E\OHJLVODWLRQ
WKHXVHRIZKLFKZLOOQRWDOWHUWKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQRUGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH
DQGRUUHJXODWLRQ"
@7KLVSRLQWRIYLHZLVUHIOHFWHGLQWKHGLUHFWLYHVRQSHVWLFLGHVDQG ELRFLGHV>@DQG>@ZKHUHWKHDOORZDEOHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQJURXQGZDWHU LUUHVSHFWLYHRIDXVH DVGULQNLQJZDWHU LVJ/ %DVHG RQ WKLV UHDVRQLQJ FRPSHWHQW DXWKRULWLHV KDYH WR VHW ZDWHU TXDOLW\ VWDQGDUGV WR PHGLFLQDOVXEVWDQFHVDQGIHHGDGGLWLYHVWKDWFDQEHDVVLJQHGWRWKH/LVW,DQG,,RIWKHZDWHU GLUHFWLYHV $OVR WKH\ KDYH WR GHYHORS DFWLRQ SODQV WR FRQWURO WKH SROOXWLRQ PHGLFLQHV DUH DFNQRZOHGJHGDVDVSHFLILFJURXSRIVXEVWDQFHVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV¶ :DWHU$FWLRQ3URJUDP >@)XUWKHUPRUHWRDOOVXEVWDQFHVWKDWTXDOLI\DVSHVWLFLGDODVWDQGDUGLVDOUHDG\DYDLODEOH IRUGULQNLQJZDWHUDQGDWOHDVWLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVDOVRIRUJURXQGZDWHU J/ WK
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
7KH SXUSRVH RI WKH PRGHOOLQJ WKH GHVLUHG OHYHO RI TXDOLW\LQWKHHQYLURQPHQW 1HLWKHU WKH (8 GLUHFWLYHV RQ YHWHULQDU\ PHGLFLQHV DQG IHHG DGGLWLYHV QRU WKH JXLGDQFH GRFXPHQWVH[SOLFLWO\VWDWHZKDWWKHSURWHFWLRQJRDOVRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQWVKRXOG EH > @ +RZHYHU QRQH RI WKH RWKHU FKHPLFDO VXEVWDQFH IUDPHZRUNV GHVFULEHG RU GHILQHGWKHGHVLUHGTXDOLW\RIWKHHQYLURQPHQW'XHWRWKLVODFNRIUHIHUHQFHLWZRXOGEHQRW SRVVLEOH WR YDOLGDWH WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH ULVN DVVHVVPHQW PHWKRGRORJ\ 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH GLUHFWLYHV JLYH VRPH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV RQ WKH VFRSH RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DQG WKH JXLGDQFH GRFXPHQWV FRQWDLQ VHYHUDO GHFLVLRQ WUHHV RQ ULVN IRU VHYHUDO HQGSRLQWV 7KHVH DUH GLVFXVVHG EHORZ7KHSHVWLFLGHDQGELRFLGHGLUHFWLYHVKDYHFRGLILHGWKHFULWHULDDQGVWDQGDUGV XQLIRUP SULQFLSOHV (& DQG (& &RPPXQDXWDULDQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ JRDOV DOVR KDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHGLQOLWHUDWXUH>@DQGDUHDGGUHVVHGEHORZ ,PSRUWDQW VRXUFHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ SURWHFWLRQ JRDOV DUH WKH OHJLVODWLRQ¶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
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
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
0HPEHUVWDWHV¶XVHRIH[SRVXUHPRGHOV ,QSUHSDUDWLRQWRD(XURSHDQZRUNVKRSIRUUHJXODWRUVRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHVDVXUYH\ZDV KHOG,QWKHVXUYH\WKHTXHVWLRQZDVDVNHG ³:KDWNLQGVRIPRGHOVDUHXVHG"&RXOG\RX LQGLFDWHWKHPHWKRGKRZ\RXUFRXQWU\FDOFXODWHVWKH3(&LQVRLODQGZDWHU"´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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
VRLO
ZDWHU
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
VXUIDFH ZDWHU
JURXQGZDWHU
RF
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
)UDQFH )UDQFH XVHV WKH )('(6$ PRGHO IRU 3(& DQG WKH 7*' PHWKRG DV UHSRUWHG LQ >@ IRU 3(& FDOFXODWLRQV VRLO
JURXQGZDWHU
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
'HQPDUN ,Q 'HQPDUN WKH DSSOLFDQW VXEPLWV WKH FDOFXODWLRQV DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH PHWKRG IRU WKH FDOFXODWLRQRI3(&VYDULHV
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
0RGHO V VXJJHVWHG
$FFRXQWLQJIRUSHVWLFLGHORVVHVE\YRODWLOLVDWLRQ
3($5/3(/0235=0
(YLGHQFH RU VWURQJ VXVSLFLRQ RI D VLJQLILFDQW LQIOXHQFH RI SUHIHUHQWLDO
0$&52
IORZRQZDWHUK\GURORJ\RUSHVWLFLGHORVV 6LPXODWLRQRIFRPSOH[GHJUDGDWLRQVFKHPHV
3(/023($5/
6LPXODWLRQRIWKHIDWHRIFRPSRXQGVVXVFHSWLEOHWRLRQLVDWLRQ
3($5/3(/02 35=0 0$&52
6LPXODWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH XQVDWXUDWHG ]RQH DQG WKH
3($5/
XSSHUJURXQGZDWHU 1HHGIRUDQDFFXUDWHGHVFULSWLRQRIVRLOK\GURORJ\
3($5/0$&52
6LPXODWLRQRIO\VLPHWHUH[SHULPHQWV
3($5/0$&523(/0235=0
,QFUHDVHLQVRUSWLRQZLWKWLPH
3($5/35=03(/02 0$&52
6RXUFH >@
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
VRLO
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
0RGHOYDOLGDWLRQ
'HILQLWLRQV
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
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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±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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
&RQFHSWXDOYDOLGDWLRQ
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µORFDO VFDOH¶ PRGHOV 7KH PRGHOVGHYHORSHGLQWKHRUJDQLFIHUWLOLVHUDQGODQGILOOSROOXWLRQIUDPHZRUNVDUHWZRRUWKUHH GLPHQVLRQDO WRSRJUDSKLFPRGHOV*,6EDVHG > @
)XQFWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQ
1RQH RI WKH H[LVWLQJ PRGHOV UHSRUWHG LQ &KDSWHU KDYH EHHQ IXQFWLRQDOO\ YDOLGDWHG IRU YHWHULQDU\ PHGLFLQHV \HW )XQFWLRQDO YDOLGDWLRQ VKRXOG WDUJHW GLIIHUHQW YDULDEOHV LQ WKH H[SRVXUHPRGHOVDOORIZKLFKDUHUHODWHG
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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|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
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
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±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¶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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
9DOLGDWLRQRIVFHQDULRV
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
WK
WK
WK
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WR VRLO SURSHUWLHV WKHUH LV D VWURQJ YDULDELOLW\ RI WKH FDOFXODWHG OHDFKLQJ FRQFHQWUDWLRQDWUHODWLYHO\VKRUWGLVWDQFHV5HVXOWVIXUWKHULQGLFDWHWKDWGXHWRODUJHLUULJDWLRQ DPRXQWV FRPELQHG ZLWK ODUJH WHPSRUDO YDULDWLRQ RI UDLQIDOO LQ WKH 6RXWKHUQ (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHVWKHWUHQGLQWKHFDOFXODWHGOHDFKLQJULVNVIURP1RUWKWR6RXWKZDVOHVVH[WUHPHWKHQ H[SHFWHG 7KLVLPSOLHVWKDWDUHDVRIKLJKOHDFKLQJULVN µKRWVSRWV¶ DV DVVHVVHG E\ PHDQV RI WKH(XUR3($5/PRGHORFFXULQDOOFRXQWULHVRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQLQFOXGLQJWKH6RXWKHUQ (XURSHDQFRXQWULHV>@
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
(QYLURQPHQWDOGDWD 8VHDQGHPLVVLRQRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHV 8VHDQGHPLVVLRQRIYHWHULQDU\GUXJVDUHQRWLQYHVWLJDWHGLQWKH(5$90,6SURMHFW DQGDUH UHFRPPHQGHGIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK7KHH[LVWLQJREVHUYDWLRQVDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ$QQH[,LQ RUGHUWRGHPRQVWUDWHUHDOLVWLFYDOXHVIRUPDMRULQSXWSDUDPHWHULQH[SRVXUHPRGHOV
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
VXEVWDQFH SURSHUWLHV DQG WKH VOXUU\ VSUHDGLQJ UHJLPH WKH UHVLGXHV LQ VRLO PD\ UHDFK DQ HOHYDWHG HTXLOLEULXP OHYHO DIWHU VRPH WLPH /LWHUDWXUH GDWD RI YHWHULQDU\ PHGLFLQHV DUH VXPPDULVHGLQ$QQH[,
/DERUDWRU\GHJUDGDWLRQLQVOXUU\VRLODQGZDWHU
$ELRGHJUDGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWZDVSHUIRUPHGZLWK8.VDQG\DQGFOD\VRLODQGWKHWKUHH YHWHULQDU\GUXJVR[\WHWUDF\FOLQHVXOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQHDQGW\ORVLQDW&7KHVDPH VDQG\VRLOKDVEHHQXVHGLQDO\VLPHWHUH[SHULPHQWDQGELRGHJUDGDWLRQDQGO\VLPHWHU H[SHULPHQWKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGDWWKHVDPHWLPH7KHH[SHULPHQWLVGHVFULEHGE\>@ '7VDUHGD\VIRUR[\WHWUDF\FOLQHGD\VIRUVXOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQHDQG GD\VIRU W\ORVLQILWWLQJWKHGDWDWRDELH[SRQHQWLDOFXUYH7KHELRGHJUDGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWHGODVWHGIRU GD\VVRWKH'7IRUW\ORVLQLVDQH[WUDSRODWHGYDOXHZKLFKLVFRQVLGHUHGLQGLFDWLYH 5HFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHGDWDZLWKVLPSOHILUVWRUGHUH[SRQHQWLDONLQHWLFVUHVXOWVLQWKHIROORZLQJ '7V 7DEOH(VWLPDWHGKDOIOLIHWLPHVRIWKHWKUHHYHWHULQDU\GUXJVLQWKHVDQG\VRLO'HWHUPLQHGE\QRQOLQHDUILWWLQJ RIILUVWRUGHUH[SRQHQWLDONLQHWLFVZLWK*UDSK3DG3ULVP '7LQGD\V
Q
U
&RQILGHQFH,QWHUYDO
& LQ O\VLPHWHUVRLO 2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
[
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
[
7\ORVLQ
[
H[WUDSRODWHGYDOXH
7DEOH(VWLPDWHGKDOIOLIHWLPHVRIWKHWKUHHYHWHULQDU\GUXJVLQWKHFOD\VRLO'HWHUPLQHGE\QRQOLQHDUILWWLQJ RIILUVWRUGHUH[SRQHQWLDONLQHWLFVZLWK*UDSK3DG3ULVP '7LQGD\V
Q
U
&RQILGHQFH,QWHUYDO
& LQ O\VLPHWHUVRLO 2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
[
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
[
7\ORVLQ
[
H[WUDSRODWHGYDOXH
/DERUDWRU\VRUSWLRQLQVOXUU\DQGVRLO
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH 27& 7\ORVLQ 7@ 7KH VRLOZDWHU UDWLRV ZHUH FKRVHQ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH H[SHFWHG VRUSWLRQ FDSDFLWLHV 27&FOD\ 27&VDQG 7@ 7KH ORZ DQDO\WLFDO UHFRYHULHV DUH D SRLQW RI FRQFHUQ DQG UHGXFH WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH UHSRUWHG .I YDOXHV FOD\
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
6WHYHQV((QTXHWHPHVWLQMHFWLH>:HE3DJH@ KWWS ZZZOLPEXUJEHSURYLQFLDOHODQGERXZGLHQVWPHVWLQMHFWLHKWPO$FFHVVHG 0D\ +LOSHUW5:LQWHU-+DPPHV:.DQGOHU2 7KHVHQVLWLYLW\RIDUFKDHEDFWHULD WRDQWLELRWLFV=EO%DNW+\J,& *DYDOFKLQ-.DW]6( 7KHSHUVLVWHQFHRIIHFDOERUQHDQWLELRWLFVLQVRLO- $2$&,QW :DUPDQ357KRPDV5/ &KORUWHWUDF\FOLQHLQVRLODPHQGHGZLWKSRXOWU\ PDQXUH&DQDGLDQMRXUQDORIVRLOVFLHQFH 0H\HU07%XPJDUQHU-(7KXUPDQ(0+RVWHWOHU.$'DXJKWULGJH-9 $ UDGLRLPPXQRDVVD\PHWKRGWRVFUHHQIRUDQWLELRWLFVLQOLTXLGZDVWHDWFRQILQHG OLYHVWRFNRSHUDWLRQVZLWKFRQILUPDWLRQE\OLTXLGFKURPDWRJUDSK\PDVV VSHFWURPHWU\:HVW7UHQWRQ1HZ-HUVH\86$ 3URFHHGLQJV86*HRORJLFDO 6XUYH\5HSRUWQR:DWHU5HVRXUFHVLQYHVWLJDWLRQVUHSRUW % 0H\HU70%XPJDUQHU-('DXJKWULGJH-9.ROSLQ'7KXUPDQ(0+RVWHWOHU.$ 2FFXUUHQFHRIDQWLELRWLFVLQOLTXLGZDVWHDWFRQILQHGDQLPDOIHHGLQJ RSHUDWLRQVDQGLQVXUIDFHDQGJURXQGZDWHU)RUW&ROOLQV&RORUDGR86$ 3URFHHGLQJV86*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\5HSRUWQR2) +ROP-95XJJH.%MHUJ3/&KULVWHQVHQ7+ 2FFXUUHQFHDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRI SKDUPDFHXWLFDOFRPSRXQGVLQWKHJURXQGZDWHUGRZQJUDGLHQWRIDODQGILOO (QYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFH WHFKQRORJ\ .XKQ(36XIOLWD-0 $QDHURELFELRGHJUDGDWLRQRIQLWURJHQVXEVWLWXWHGDQG VXOIRQDWHGEHQ]HQHDTXLIHUFRQWDPLQDQWV+D]DUGRXV:DVWH +D]DUGRXV 0DWHULDOV .KQH0,KQHQ'0|OOHU*$JKWH26WDELOLW\RIWHWUDF\FOLQHLQZDWHUDQG OLTXLGPDQXUH-YHWPHG$ :LQFNOHU&*UDIH$&KDUDNWHULVLHUXQJXQG9HUZHUWXQJYDQ$EIlOOHQDXVGHU 0DVVHQWLHUKDOWXQJXQWHU%HUFNVLFKWLJXQJYHUVFKLHGHQHU%|GHQ6WRIIHLQWUDJLQ %|GHQGXUFK7LHUDU]QHLPLWWHOXQGSKDUPDNRORJLVFKZLUNVDPH)XWWHU]XVDW]VWRIIH XQWHUEHVRQGHUHU%HUFNVLFKWLJXQJYRQ7HWUD]\NOLQHQ%HUOLQ*HUPDQ\ 8%$ 5HSRUWQR8%$UHSRUW 8%$)% /RNH0/-HVSHUVHQ69UHHNHQ5+DOOLQJ6¡UHQVHQ%7M¡UQHOXQG- 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIR[\WHWUDF\FOLQHDQGLWVGHJUDGDWLRQSURGXFWVE\KLJK SHUIRUPDQFHOLTXLGFKURPDWRJUDSK\WDQGHPPDVVVSHFWURPHWU\LQPDQXUH FRQWDLQLQJDQDHURELFWHVWV\VWHPV-RXUQDORI&KURPDWRJUDSK\% /RNH0/7M¡UQHOXQG-+DOOLQJ6¡UHQVHQ%'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW ORJ.G RIR[\WHWUDF\FOLQH7\ORVLQ$RODTXLQGR[DQGPHWURQLGD]ROH LQPDQXUH&KHPRVSKHUH ,62 6RLOTXDOLW\6DPSOLQJ3DUW *XLGDQFHRQWKHFROOHFWLRQKDQGOLQJ DQGVWRUDJHRIVRLOIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIDHURELFPLFURELDOSURFHVVHVLQWKH ODERUDWRU\,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQLVDWLRQIRU6WDQGDUGLVDWLRQ5HSRUWQR ,QJHUVOHY)+DOOLQJ6¡UHQVHQ%%LRGHJUDGDWLRQSURSHUWLHVRIVXOIRQDPLGHVLQ DFWLYDWHGVOXGJH(QYLURQPHQWDO7R[LFRORJ\DQG&KHPLVWU\ ,QJHUVOHY)%DXQ$1\KROP1 $TXDWLFELRGHJUDGDWLRQEHKDYLRXURI SHQWDFKORURSKHQRODVVHVVHGWKURXJKDEDWWHU\RIVKDNHIODVNGLHDZD\WHVWV (QYLURQPHQWDO7R[LFRORJ\DQG&KHPLVWU\ ,QJHUVOHY)7RUlQJ//RNH0+DOOLQJ6¡UHQVHQ%1\KROP13ULPDU\ ELRGHJUDGDWLRQRIYHWHULQDU\DQWLELRWLFVLQDHURELFDQGDQDHURELFVXUIDFHZDWHU VLPXODWLRQV\VWHPV&KHPRVSKHUH 9HM+DQVHQ%%XQGJDDUG+.UHLOJnUG% .LQHWLFVRIGHJUDGDWLRQRI
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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µSUHYLRXV¶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
SDJH RI
5,90UHSRUW
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
IUDFWLRQH[FUHWHG
DSSOLFDWLRQRI
UD
IUDFWLRQLYHUPHFWLQ
H[FUHWHGLYHUPHFWLQDVDIUDFWLRQRIWKHDSSOLHGGRVH
WKHGRVH
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
$QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
ZHUH UHFRUGHGLQ ,OOLQRLV86$> @7HPSHUDWXUHVLQPDQXUHEHGGLQJ SDFNV XVHG LQ KRRS VWUXFWXUHVIRUILQLVKLQJSLJVUDQJHGIURP±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
SDJH RI
5,90UHSRUW
SODFHG LQ WKH \DUG RU ILHOG ZKHUH LW PD\ EH FRYHUHG 7KH PDQXUH ZDV VWRUHG IRU *HQHUDOO\ PDQXUH ZDV UHPRYHG IURP WKH FDJHV ZHHNO\ DOWKRXJK RQ VRPH KROGLQJV LW ZDV UHPRYHGDWWKHHQGRIWKHSURGXFWLRQF\FOHRUGDLO\$UHODWLYHO\ODUJHSURSRUWLRQRISRXOWU\ PDQXUHLVWUDQVSRUWHGRIIVLWH 7DEOH3HUFHQWDJHRIIDUP\DUGPDQXUHVSUHDGGLUHFWO\WRODQGLQWKH8. $'$6 3URSRUWLRQ
RI
WRWDO
RIGDLU\IDUPV
RIEHHIIDUPV
RISLJIDUPV
/HVVWKDQ
RUPRUH
PDQXUH
$QRWKHUVRXUFHUHSRUWVWKHIROORZLQJGDWDRQVOXUU\VWRUDJHDQGDSSOLFDWLRQUDWHV 7DEOH ,WLVQRWVSHFLILHGWRZKDWDQLPDOVWKHGDWDDSSO\>@ 7DEOH $PRXQWVRIVOXUU\VWRUHGDQGDSSOLHGWLPHRIDSSOLFDWLRQDQGOHQJWKRIVWRUDJH> @ DSSOLHG
4XDQWLW\VWRUHG
VWRUDJHWLPH
DSSOLFDWLRQUDWH
SORXJKGHSWK
ZDVWHFRQWHQW
ZDVWHFRQWHQW
JDOORQ
PRQWKV
NJKD\
FP
NJ3P
NJ1P
VOXUU\ $YHUDJH
6'
PLQ
PD[
WRQQH
WRQQH
6'
QD
QD
PLQ
PD[
PDQXUH DYHUDJH
WRQQH
)RUWKH1HWKHUODQGVWKHVWRUDJHFDSDFLW\RIVOXUU\EDVLQVGHSHQGRQWKHVOXUU\VXUSOXVDQGDUH H[SUHVVHG LQ WHUPV RI VWRUDJH WLPH WKLV YDULHV EHWZHHQ DQG PRQWKV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH IDWH RI WKH VOXUU\ HJ XVH RQ RZQ IDUPODQG H[SRUW 7KHSHULRGVLQZKLFKWKHVSUHDGLQJ RI PDQXUH LH VWDEOH PDQXUH VOXUU\ DQG VOXGJH LV DOORZHG DUH GLIIHUHQW IRU LQGLFDWHG DQG QRQ LQGLFDWHGDUHDV)RULQGLFDWHGDUHDVWKLVSHULRGLV)HEUXDU\$XJXVWIRUJUDVVODQGDQGDUDEOH ODQG )RU QRQLQGLFDWHG DUHDV WKLV SHULRG LV )HEUXDU\ 6HSWHPEHU IRU JUDVVODQG DQG WKH ZKROH \HDU IRU DUDEOH ODQG >@ 2Q JUDVVODQG DQG DUDEOH ODQG RQ VDQG\ VRLO WKH JURZLQJ VHDVRQ LV WKH SHULRG LQ ZKLFK VOXUU\ LV VSUHDG WKH PRVW FRPSDUHG WR WKH DXWXPQ $UDEOHODQGRQFOD\RUSHDWVRLOLVPDQXUHGDOPRVWH[FOXVLYHO\LQDXWXPQDQGZLQWHU2QHRU WZRVSUHDGLQJHYHQWVZLWKLQDKDOI\HDUDUHPRVWFRPPRQ/LTXLGPDQXUHLVPRVWO\LQMHFWHG LQWRWKHVRLO JUDVVODQG RUVSUHDGDQGLQFRUSRUDWHGZLWKLQKRXUV DUDEOHODQG >@ ,Q)ODQGHUV%HOJLXPLWLVQRWDOORZHG GHFUHHRI0D\ WRXVHVOXUU\RQJUDVVODQG EHWZHHQ 6HSWHPEHU DQG -DQXDU\ DQG RQ DUDEOH ODQG EHWZHHQ 6HSWHPEHU DQG )HEUXDU\UHJDUGOHVVRIWKHVRLOWH[WXUH>@ WK
7KH WRWDO ORDG WR WKH ILHOG VRLO GHSHQGV RQ WKH GRVDJH DSSOLHG ZLWK HYHU\ VSUHDGLQJ HYHQW JRYHUQHG E\ WKH IDFWRUV DGGUHVVHG DERYH DQG WKH QXPEHU RI VSUHDGLQJ HYHQWV ZLWKLQ WKH SHULRGRIFRQFHUQ,QWKH1HWKHUODQGVWKHDPRXQWRIVOXUU\XVHGLVOLPLWHGE\WKHSKRVSKDWH FRQWHQWDQGSKRVSKDWHLPPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGVQRWE\QLWUDWH6LQFHWKHDOORZHGLPPLVVLRQ
$QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
RI SKRVSKDWH YLD VOXUU\ LV NJKD >@ 7KLV TXRWXP LV SUHVXPDEO\ VSUHDG RYHU WKH UHVSHFWLYHVSUHDGLQJHYHQWV 7KHVRLOPDQDJHPHQWDIWHUDQGGXULQJVSUHDGLQJGHWHUPLQHVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHVOXUU\DQG WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHUHVLGXHLQVRLO )RXUPDLQW\SHVRIVOXUU\GLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPH[LVWHDFKRIZKLFKFDQEHILWWHGWRDYDFXXP WDQNHUSXPSHGWDQNHURUXVHGZLWKDQXPELOLFDOV\VWHP6HOIWUDYHOOLQJLUULJDWRUVFDQQRWEH XVHGZLWKLQMHFWRUV %URDGFDVWVSUHDGHU VSODVKSODWHRUQR]]OHV ±WKHVOXUU\LVIRUFHGXQGHUSUHVVXUHWKURXJKD QR]]OHRIWHQRQWRDQLQFOLQHGSODWHWRLQFUHDVHWKHVLGHZD\VVSUHDGUHVXOWLQJLQZLGHVSUHDG GLVWULEXWLRQRIVOXUU\DFURVVWKHODQGVXUIDFH %DQG VSUHDGHU ± WKH ERRP RI WKH VSUHDGHU KDV D QXPEHU RI KRVHV FRQQHFWHG WR LW GLVWULEXWLQJ WKH VOXUU\ LQ VWULSV FORVH WR WKH JURXQG )LJXUH ,W LV IHG ZLWK VOXUU\ IURP D VLQJOH SLSH WKXV UHO\LQJ RQ WKH SUHVVXUH DW HDFK RI WKH KRVH RXWOHWV WR SURYLGH HYHQ GLVWULEXWLRQ$GYDQFHGV\VWHPVXVHURWDU\GLVWULEXWRUVWRSURSRUWLRQWKHVOXUU\HYHQO\WRHDFK RXWOHW Slurry Crop level
Soil
)LJXUH6OXUU\GHSRVLWLRQXVLQJDEDQGVSUHDGHU
7UDLOLQJ VKRH VSUHDGHU ± WKLV LV D VLPLODU FRQILJXUDWLRQ WR WKH EDQG VSUHDGHU ZLWK D VKRH DGGHGWRHDFKKRVHDOORZLQJWKHVOXUU\WREHGHSRVLWHGXQGHUWKHFURSFDQRS\ RQWRWKHVRLO )LJXUH Crop level Slurry
Soil
)LJXUH6OXUU\GHSRVLWLRQE\WUDLOLQJVKRHVSUHDGHU
,QMHFWRU ± VOXUU\LVLQMHFWHGXQGHUWKHVRLOVXUIDFH7KHUH DUH YDULRXV W\SHV RI LQMHFWRU EXW HDFK ILWV LQWR RQH RI WZR FDWHJRULHV HLWKHU RSHQ VORW VKDOORZ LQMHFWLRQ XS WR PP GHHS )LJXUH RU GHHS LQMHFWLRQ RYHU PP GHHS )LJXUH XS WR DURXQG PP 7KH ZLGWKRIHDFKVWULSRIVOXUU\LQMHFWHGZLWKDQRSHQVORWZLOOEHDSSUR[LPDWHO\PPZKLOVW FORVHGVORWLQMHFWLRQSURGXFHVDEDQGRIVOXUU\ZLWKDEDVHRIDERXWPP>@ Slurry
Soil
)LJXUH6OXUU\DSSOLFDWLRQE\RSHQVORWLQMHFWLRQ
$QQH[,
SDJH RI
5,90UHSRUW
Slurry
Soil
)LJXUH6OXUU\GHSRVLWLRQE\FORVHGVORWLQMHFWLRQ
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
6OXUU\
)@ 7DEOH7LPLQJRIPDQXUHDQGVOXUU\DSSOLFDWLRQVDVDSHUFHQWDJHRIWRWDODSSOLHG>@ 0RQWKV
'DLU\FDWWOH
%HHIFDWWOH
3LJV
3RXOWU\
6OXUU\
) @ ,QDSLORWVWXG\FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWHWUDF\FOLQH 7& R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH 27& FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH &7& DQG W\ORVLQ 7FP@
7&>JNJ@
&7&>JNJ@
SLJVOXUU\
±
±
±
±
FDWWOHVOXUU\
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
±
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
R
$QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
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
7DEOH5HFRYHULHVVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJUHODWLYHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVRIWKHVWXGLHV FRPSRXQGVLQVRLOZDWHUDQGOLTXLGPDQXUHD WHWUDF\FOLQH FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH UHFRYHU\ 56' UHFRYHU\ 56' >@ >@ >@ >@ ,Q6RLO JNJ JNJ JNJ JNJ JNJ ,Q:DWHU J/ J/ ,Q /LTXLG PDQXUH PJNJ PJNJ 9DOXHVDUHWKHPHDQRIHLJKWLQGHSHQGHQWGHWHUPLQDWLRQVDWHDFKFRQFHQWUDWLRQ ([WUDFWLRQSURFHGXUHQRWVXLWDEOHIRUWKHDQDO\VLVRIW\ORVLQLQOLTXLGPDQXUH &RQF
R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH UHFRYHU\ 56' >@ >@
W\ORVLQ UHFRYHU\ >@
56' >@
E E
E E
D
E
0HDQ UHFRYHU\ LQ VRLO RI WHWUDF\FOLQH DQG RI FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH 0HDQ UHFRYHU\ LQ VRLO RI R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH DQG RI W\ORVLQ 7KH UHODWLYH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV 56'V FDOFXODWHG IURPWKHH[SHULPHQWVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHGD\WRGD\ YDULDWLRQLQ VDPSOHV FRQWDLQLQJ WHWUDF\FOLQH DQG FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH UDQJHG IURP WR IRU WHWUDF\FOLQH DQG IURP WR IRU FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH DQG ZHUH LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQVUDQJH 2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH DQG W\ORVLQ FRXOG QRW EH GHWHFWHG LQ DQ\ OLTXLG PDQXUH RU VRLO VDPSOH LQYHVWLJDWHG7HWUDF\FOLQHDQGFKORUWHWUDF\FOLQHFRXOGQRWEHGHWHFWHGDWGHSWKEHORZFP LQGLFDWLQJWKDWWHWUDF\FOLQHVDUHERXQGWRWKHWRSVRLODQGWKDWWUDQVIHUWRWKHVXEVRLOGRHVQRW RFFXU 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI WHWUDF\FOLQH LQ VDPSOHV RI 0D\ DW DQG FP GHSWKZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHU S WKDQWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQVDPSOHVRI0D\DQG 1RYHPEHU7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWHWUDF\FOLQHLQVDPSOHVFROOHFWHGDWDOOWKUHHGDWHVDW FPZHUHDWDOOWLPHVVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHU S WKDQLQWKHVRLOGHSWKVRIDQG
$QQH[,
SDJH RI
5,90UHSRUW
FP7KHSRVVLEOHUHYHUVLEOHGHJUDGDWLRQSURGXFWHSLWHWUDF\FOLQHZDVSUHVHQWLQOLTXLG PDQXUHDWRIWKHSDUHQWGUXJ7KHGHJUDGDWLRQSURGXFWPD\EHSUHVHQWLQWKHVRLOEXW LWZDVQRWORRNHGIRULQWKHH[SHULPHQWV 7DEOH0HDQYDOXHVRIWHWUDF\FOLQHDQGFKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH DIWHUVSUHDGLQJRIOLTXLGPDQXUHFRQWDLQLQJPJ/ D
WHWUDF\FOLQHDQGPJ/FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQHLQ$SULODQGPJ/WHWUDF\FOLQHDQG PJ/FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQHLQ$SULO VDPSOHFROOHFWLRQ VRLOGHSWK>FP@ LQ0D\ LQ1RY LQ0D\
$YHUDJH 1RPLQDO
$YHUDJH 1RPLQDO
7HWUDF\FOLQH > JNJ@ &KORUWHWUDF\FOLQH > JNJ@
,Q 0D\ VWRUHG IRU ,Q 0D\ VWRUHG IRU PRQWKVDW & PRQWKVDW & R
R
YDOXHVKDYHEHHQFRUUHFWHGIRUPHDQUHFRYHU\ IRUWHWUDF\FOLQHDQG IRUFKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH
D
7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIFKORUWHWUDF\FOLQHLQVDPSOHV DQGFP RI0D\ VWRUHG DW & IRU PRQWKV DW ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKDW RI 0D\ ZLWKRXW VWRUDJHDQGZLWKVWRUDJHIRURQO\PRQWKV +LJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWHWUDF\FOLQHDQGFKORUWHWUDF\FOLQHZHUHGHWHUPLQHGE\/&0606LQ GULHGOLTXLGPDQXUH 7DEOH R
1HLWKHUWHWUDF\FOLQHVQRUW\ORVLQZHUHGHWHFWHGLQDQ\ZDWHUVDPSOHREWDLQHGDWDGHSWKRI FPRULQJURXQGZDWHUDWDGHSWKRIFPEHORZVRLOVXUIDFH 7DEOH7HWUDF\FOLQHDQGFKORUWHWUDF\FOLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQGULHGOLTXLGPDQXUHDJJUHJDWHVGHSRVLWHGLQ0D\DQG D
LQWKHXQGHUO\LQJVRLO
GULHGOLTXLGPDQXUHVRLOGHSWK>FP@ DUHD$ OLTXLGPDQXUHIURPSLJV Q DUHD% OLTXLGPDQXUHIURPSLJV Q DUHD& OLTXLGPDQXUHIURPFDWWOH Q
WHWUDF\FOLQH> JNJ@ FKORUWHWUDF\FOLQH> JNJ@
FRUUHFWHGIRUPHDQUHFRYHU\
D
7KHWKHRUHWLFDOGRVHVZHUHJKDDQG JKDIRU27&DQGDQGJKDIRU&7&LQ DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\'LYLGHGRYHUFPVRLOZLWKDEXONGHQVLW\RINJP WKH QRPLQDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DUH DQG JNJ 27& DQG DQG JNJ &7& 7KH PHDVXUHG FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DUH D IDFWRU KLJKHU LQGLFDWLQJ WKH SUHVHQFH RI UHVLGXHV LQ WKH
$QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
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
$QQH[,
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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±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
0RWKHUSLJVZLWKIDUURZV $ %
&
)DWWHQLQJSLJV ' ( 1G
9HDO )
1G 1G
1G
1G 1G
1G
1G
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
,/DERUDWRU\GHJUDGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWVZLWKWHWUDF\FOLQHV VXOSKRQDPLGHVDQGW\ORVLQ 7HWUDF\FOLQH $QH[SHULPHQWDOV\VWHPZDVLQYHVWLJDWHGIRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOVWDELOLW\RI WHWUDF\FOLQHDQGLWVPHWDEROLWHHSLWHWUDF\FOLQHLQZDWHUDQGOLTXLGSLJPDQXUH>@7KH H[SHULPHQW FRQVLVWHG RI LQFXEDWLRQ V\VWHPV IRU VROXWLRQV ZLWK LQVWDOODWLRQV IRU VWLUULQJ DQG YHQWLODWLRQ)RXUH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGHDFKZLWKDQLQFXEDWLRQV\VWHP([SHULPHQWV $QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
ZHUHSHUIRUPHGDWDPELHQWWHPSHUDWXUHDQGVDPSOHVZHUHH[SRVHGWRQDWXUDOOLJKWFRQGLWLRQV ([SHULPHQW 7KUHH YHVVHOV YDFXXP GHVLFFDWRUV ZHUH ILOOHG ZLWK P/ RI 5LQJHU¶V VROXWLRQDQGDXWRFODYHG,QWZRYHVVHOVP/ZDVUHSODFHGZLWKP/RIWKHWHWUDF\FOLQH VWRFNVROXWLRQV7KHWKLUGYHVVHOVHUYHGDVDFRQWURO ([SHULPHQW 7KH VDPH H[SHULPHQW DV H[SHULPHQW EXW LQ DGGLWLRQ WKH YHVVHOV ZHUH YHQWLODWHGZLWKIRUFHGVWHULOLVHGDLU ([SHULPHQW 7KHVDPHH[SHULPHQWDVH[SHULPHQWEXWXVLQJQDWLYHOLTXLGPDQXUHLQVWHDG RI5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQ ([SHULPHQW 7KH VDPH H[SHULPHQW DV H[SHULPHQW EXW XVLQJ OLTXLG PDQXUH DQG WKH YHVVHOVZHUHYHQWLODWHGZLWKIRUFHGVWHULOLVHGDLU 6DPSOHV ZLWK WHWUDF\FOLQHV ZHUH GLOXWHG ZLWK FLWULF EXIIHU 7KHQ VDPSOHV ZHUH FHQWULIXJHG DQGILOWHUHG$QDOLTXRWRIWKHILOWUDWHZDVDJDLQFHQWULIXJHGWKURXJKDPLFURVSLQFHQWULIXJH ILOWHU 7KLV ILOWUDWH ZDV GLUHFWO\ XVHG IRU +3/& 5HFRYHU\ RI WHWUDF\FOLQH IURP +3/& ZDV IURPVDPSOHVGHULYHGIURP5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQDQG DQGVDPSOHVGHULYHGIRUPOLTXLG PDQXUH 5HFRYHU\ RI HSLWHWUDF\FOLQH ZDV IURP VDPSOHV GHULYHG IRUP 5LQJHU¶V VROXWLRQDQG IURPVDPSOHVGHULYHGIURPOLTXLGPDQXUH 7DEOH'HFUHDVHRIWHWUDF\FOLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV VXPRIWHWUDF\FOLQHDQGLWVHSLWHWUDF\FOLQH LQ5LQJHU¶V VROXWLRQVDQGOLTXLGPDQXUHGXULQJDQLQFXEDWLRQIRUGD\V 7& PHDQRIWZRUHSOLFDWHV6' DQGSHUFHQWDJH RIHSLWHWUDF\FOLQHRQWRWDOWHWUDF\FOLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV (7 QUH[S
'D\ 7&>@
5LQJHU¶V VROXWLRQ QRW YHQWLODWHG 5LQJHU¶V VROXWLRQ YHQWLODWHG /LTXLG PDQXUH QRW YHQWLODWHG /LTXLG PDQXUH YHQWLODWHG
(7>@
'D\ 7&>@
(7>@
'D\ 7&>@ (7>@
'D\ 7&>@ (7>@
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH DXWKRU WKH GHFUHDVH RI WHWUDF\FOLQH ZDV VLJQLILFDQW LQ H[S DQG 6XSSRVLQJ WKH GHFUHDVH FRQWLQXHG RQ WKH IROORZLQJ GD\V DV FDOFXODWHG IURP WKH UHJUHVVLRQ OLQHV WKH '7 ZDV DQG GD\V LQ XQYHQWLODWHG DQG YHQWLODWHG 5LQJHU¶V VROXWLRQV UHVSHFWLYHO\7KH'7IRUWHWUDF\FOLQHLQXQYHQWLODWHGOLTXLGPDQXUHZDV GD\VDQGLWZDV GD\V ZKHQWKH VOXUU\ ZDV YHQWLODWHG 7KH UHFRYHU\ IURP WKH H[WUDFWLRQ PHWKRG ZDV QRW GHWHUPLQHG,WZDVQRWPHQWLRQHGZKLFKVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHG 7DEOH6XPPDU\RIWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVWXG\ZLWKWHWUDF\FOLQH 6XEVWDQFH
:DWHUW\SH
7
S+
'XUDWLRQ
WHWUDF\FOLQH WHWUDF\FOLQH WHWUDF\FOLQH WHWUDF\FOLQH
5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQ 5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQYHQWLODWHG OLTXLGPDQXUH OLTXLGPDQXUHYHQWLODWHG
>&@ URRP URRP URRP URRP
>G@
$QQH[,
7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ DWHQG >@
'7 +\GURO\VLV& >G@
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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±PJ/ ZLWK56'7HWUDF\FOLQHGHPRQVWUDWHGDVWDELOLW\LQVOXUU\ZKLFKZDV QRWLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHLQLWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHDQWLELRWLFWHPSHUDWXUHRIDHUDWLRQWKURXJK UHSHDWHG VWLUULQJ +DOIOLYHV UDQJHG EHWZHHQ DQG GD\V DOO H[WUDSRODWHG DUH UHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJDQRQOLQHDUILUVWRUGHUH[SRQHQWLDOILW PJ/&'7GD\VU PJ/&'7GD\VU PJ/RXWGRRUVGD\VU
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
$QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
WUHDWPHQWSODQWUHFHLYLQJPXQLFLSDOZDVWHZDWHU3UHFRQGLWLRQLQJ DHUDWLRQ EHJDQZLWKLQK RIFROOHFWLRQDQGWRRNWRKDWURRPWHPSHUDWXUH 7R[LFLW\ WHVWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG DFFRUGLQJ WR *XLGHOLQHV LQ ,62 7KH WR[LFLW\ RI VXOIDQLODPLGH VXOIDGD]LQH DQG VXOIDFHWDPLGH ZHUH WHVWHG DW ILYH GLIIHUHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ OHYHOV PJ/ LQ GXSOLFDWH WHVW IODVNV 'LFKORURSKHQRO ZDV WHVWHG DV D UHIHUHQFH VXEVWDQFH0RUHWKDQEDFWHULDOLQKLELWLRQZDVIRXQGIRUVXOIDGLD]LQH mJ/ ZKHUHDV IRU VXOIDFHWDPLGH DQG VXOIDQLODPLGH XS WR mJ/ YHU\ OLWWOH LQKLELWLRQ ZDV PHDVXUHG (& YDOXHV FRXOG QRW EH FDOFXODWHG %LRGHJUDGDWLRQ H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH QRW DIIHFWHG E\ EDFWHULDWR[LFLW\XVLQJWKHWR[LFLW\WHVW 6FUHHQLQJ WHVWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH *XLGHOLQHV LQ ,62 6XOIDQLODPLGH VXOIDGLD]LQHVXOIDPHWHUDQGVXOIDEHQ]DPLGHZHUHQRWGHJUDGHGZLWKLQWKHWHVWSHULRGRI G $FWLYDWHG VOXGJH V\VWHP 8QGLOXWHG SUHFRQGLWLRQHG VOXGJH ZDV DGGHG WR DHUDWHG UHDFWRUV KHLJKW FP GLDPHWHU FP 6OXGJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV UDQJHG IURP WR J 66/ 7HVW VXEVWDQFHVZHUHDGGHGLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVUDQJLQJIURPWRm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
$QQH[,
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQHDQG7\ORVLQ 7KHSULPDU\DHURELFDQGDQDHURELFELRGHJUDGDELOLW\DWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIJ/RIWKH DQWLELRWLFVRODTXLQGR[PHWURQLGD]ROHW\ORVLQ 7@ 7KH WHVW ZHUH FDUULHG RXW DW QRQWR[LFFRQFHQWUDWLRQV ,QZDWHUWKHPHGLDQ'7 IRU 7 @ )URPWKHGDWDSUHVHQWHGE\6RXOLGHVHWDO DQDYHUDJH'7LQVRLORIGD\V & FDQEHGHULYHG>@
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mP LQWR+3/&JODVVYLDOV)RUWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHH[WUDFWLRQHIILFLHQF\VDPSOHV RIXQH[SRVHGVRLO VDPHVRLOW\SHVWRUHGDW&WRJHWKHUZLWKWKHVRLOVXQWLOH[WUDFWLRQ ZHUH H[SRVHGWRZDWHU\VROXWLRQVRIVXOIDFKORURS\ULGD]LQHWRJHWKHUZLWKDFHWRQLWULOHDQGSKRVSKDWH EXIIHU DQG VKDNHQ DQG WUHDWHG DV DERYH $V FRQWURO VDPSOHV D VRLO DQRWKHU VRLO W\SH ³PHQJERGHP´ FRQWDPLQDWHG ZLWK PJNJ VXOIDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH DQG PDQXUH VWRUHG DW &XQWLOH[WUDFWLRQDQGWKHVDPHVRLOVWRUHGDW±&ZHUHXVHG$6XSHOFRGLVFRYHU\& FROXPQ FP PP m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
$QQH[,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
7DEOH ([WUDFWLRQHIILFLHQF\RI6&3LQIUHVKO\VSLNHGVRLOV PJ/
DUHD
VRLO FRQF 6&3
+3/& GLO
H[WU >PO@
YRO UHFRYHU\
PHDQ
GHYLDWLRQ
6RLOFRQFHQWUDWLRQVEHORZPJNJFRXOGQRWEHDQDO\VHGGXHWRWRRKLJKUHFRYHU\YDOXHV 7DEOH9DULDQFHRIH[WUDFWLRQV PJNJ6&3VRLODWILHOGKXPLGLW\ PJ/
DUHD
VRLO H[WUDFWHG >J@
+3/& GLO
+XPLGLW\ >@
H[WU >PO@
YRO 6RLO FRQFHQWU 0HDQ GHYLDWLRQ >PJNJZHWVRLO@
7KH YDULDQFH EHWZHHQ PXOWLSOH H[WUDFWLRQV ZDV UHODWLYHO\ ORZ :KLOH GHJUDGDWLRQ RFFXUV DOUHDG\DW&LWZDVVWLOOSRVVLEOHWRH[WUDFWWKHFRPSOHWHDPRXQWRIVXOIDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH IURPWKHVRLOVWRUHGDW±&5HVXOWVRIDQDO\VLVZHUHDGMXVWHGIRUWKHDFWXDOKXPLGLW\DQG QRUPDOLVHG WR ILHOG KXPLGLW\ ZDV WDNHQ DV PHDQ UHFRYHU\ 7KH W ò YDOXHV FDOFXODWHGIURPDOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQXVLQJWKHILUVWWKUHHWLPHSRLQWV DQGGD\V DUHLQ 7DEOH/DWHUWKHGHJUDGDWLRQVHHPVWRSURFHHGDWDVORZHUVSHHG 7DEOH+DOIOLIHWLPHVIRU6&3 6RLOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ>PJNJ@
7ò & >G@
7PO@
YRO 6RLOFRQFHQWU>PJNJ 0HDQ ZHWVRLO@
GHYLDWLRQ
7KH YDULDQFH EHWZHHQ PXOWLSOH H[WUDFWLRQV ZDV UHODWLYHO\ ORZ :KLOH GHJUDGDWLRQ RFFXUV DOUHDG\DW& DQDO\VLVRI UHPDLQHGDIWHUPRQWKV LWZDVVWLOOSRVVLEOHWRH[WUDFW W\ORVLQ IURP WKH VRLO VWRUHG DW ±& 5HVXOWV RI DQDO\VLV ZHUH DGMXVWHG IRU WKH DFWXDO KXPLGLW\DQGQRUPDOLVHGWRILHOGKXPLGLW\ ZDVWDNHQDVPHDQUHFRYHU\7KHWò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
7DEOH5HVXOWVIURPWKHVRUSWLRQH[SHULPHQWV 6XEVWDQFH
6RLOW\SH
RF
S+
PHWURQLGD]ROH PHWURQLGD]ROH PHWURQLGD]ROH PHWURQLGD]ROH RODTXLQGR[ RODTXLQGR[ RODTXLQGR[ RODTXLQGR[ R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH R[\WHWUDF\FOLQH W\ORVLQ W\ORVLQ W\ORVLQ W\ORVLQ
VDQG\ORDP VDQG VDQG\ORDP ORDP\VDQG VDQG\ORDP VDQG VDQG\ORDP ORDP\VDQG VDQG\ORDP VDQG VDQG\ORDP ORDP\VDQG VDQG\ORDP VDQG VDQG\ORDP ORDP\VDQG
>@
>&D&O @
&OD\ 5DWLR VRLOZDWHU >@ >JP/@
.G
.)
>Q@
>/NJ@
>/NJ@
.RF
.FOD\
>/NJ@
>/NJ@
7KH.GYDOXHVUHSRUWHGIRUW\ORVLQLQERWKVDQG\ORDPVRLOV QRWVKRZQKHUH PRVWOLNHO\FRQWDLQHGDW\SLQJHUURUDQGDUHDIDFWRURIWRRKLJK 7KH.RPYDOXHVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKH.GDUHDQG/NJIRUVDQGDQGORDP\VDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
$QQH[,
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
6RLO FROXPQ OHDFKLQJ 6DQG\ ORDP DQG VDQG VRLOV ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH VRLO FROXPQ OHDFKLQJ H[SHULPHQWV 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG E\ WKH PHWKRG GHVFULEHG E\ WKH 86 (3$ 7KUHHFROXPQVZHUHXVHGIRUHDFKFRPELQDWLRQRIDQWLELRWLFDQGVRLOP/DQWLELRWLF VROXWLRQ JP/ DQGP/.%UVROXWLRQ PJ/ ZHUHDSSOLHGWRWKHFHQWUHRIWKHVRLO FROXPQ VXUIDFH ZLWK J RI DFLG ZDVKHG VDQG DQG D VLQWHUHG JODVV ILOWHU RQ WRS P/ 0&D&O HTXLYDOHQWWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\PPµUDLQ¶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
VO
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
SLJPDQXUH DQGVRLO ORDP\VDQG ORDP
RF >@
5DWLRVRLOZDWHU >JP/@
$QQH[,
.) >/NJ@
>Q@
.RF >/NJ@
5,90UHSRUW
SDJH RI
$QQH[,,0RGHOGHVFULSWLRQVDQGLQSXW
0RGHOGHVFULSWLRQV
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
JURXQGZDWHU
PDQ\ XVHU GHILQHG
$YDLODELOLW\ )2&86ZHEVLWHIUHHZDUH>@ &RPSDUWPHQWV VRLODQGJURXQGZDWHU ,QSXWSURFHVVHV :DWHU IORZ LQ VRLO LV GHVFULEHG E\ 5LFKDUG¶V HTXDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ D UDQJH RI SRVVLEOH ORZHU ERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV IRULQVWDQFHJURXQGZDWHUOHYHOVWKDWIOXFWXDWHLQUHVSRQVHWRWKHUDLQIDOO LQSXW 6RLO HYDSRUDWLRQ DQG SODQW WUDQVSLUDWLRQ LV FDOFXODWHG YLD PXOWLSO\LQJ D UHIHUHQFH HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQUDWHZLWKVRLODQGFURSIDFWRUV)RUWKH)2&86VFHQDULRVFURSJURZWKLV VLPXODWHGZLWKDVLPSOHJURZWKPRGHOWKDWDVVXPHVDIL[HGOHQJWKRIWKHJURZLQJVHDVRQ,Q WKLV JURZWK PRGHO ERWK WKH OHDI DUHD LQGH[ DQG WKH URRWLQJ GHSWK DUH D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GHYHORSPHQWVWDJHRIWKHFURS+HDWIORZLQVRLOLVGHVFULEHGZLWK)RXULHU¶VODZ7KHWKHUPDO SURSHUWLHVDUH D IXQFWLRQ RI SRURVLW\ DQGZDWHU FRQWHQWDQGDUHWKHUHIRUHD IXQFWLRQRIWLPH DQGVRLOGHSWK3($5/LVEDVHGRQ L WKHFRQYHFWLRQGLVSHUVLRQHTXDWLRQLQFOXGLQJGLIIXVLRQ LQ WKH JDV SKDVH ZLWK D WHPSHUDWXUH GHSHQGHQW +HQU\ FRHIILFLHQW LL D WZRVLWH )UHXQGOLFK VRUSWLRQ PRGHO RQH HTXLOLEULXP VLWH DQG RQH NLQHWLF VLWH LLL D WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ UDWH WKDW GHSHQGVRQZDWHUFRQWHQWWHPSHUDWXUHDQGGHSWKLQVRLO LY DSDVVLYHSODQWXSWDNHUDWH7KH PRGHOLQFOXGHVIRUPDWLRQDQGEHKDYLRXURIWUDQVIRUPDWLRQSURGXFWVDQGGHVFULEHVDOVRODWHUDO SHVWLFLGHGLVFKDUJHWRGUDLQV EXWGUDLQDJHLVVZLWFKHGRIIIRUWKH)2&86VFHQDULRV 3($5/ GRHV QRW VLPXODWH SUHIHUHQWLDO IORZ 9RODWLOLVDWLRQ IURP WKH VRLO VXUIDFH LV FDOFXODWHG DVVXPLQJ D ODPLQDU DLU OD\HU DW WKH VRLO VXUIDFH 3($5/ XVHV DQ H[SOLFLW ILQLWH GLIIHUHQFH VFKHPHWKDWH[FOXGHVQXPHULFDOGLVSHUVLRQ WKHGLVSHUVLRQOHQJWKZDVVHWWRFP 9DOLGDWLRQVWDWXV 7KH K\GURORJLFDO PRGXOH 6:$3 KDV EHHQ YDOLGDWHG H[WHQVLYHO\ IRU ZDWHU IOX[HV DQG QLWURJHQIOX[HVIURPPDQXUHLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV9DOLGDWLRQRIWKH3($5/PRGHOLVGHVFULEHG
$QQH[,
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
E\>@IRUVHYHUDODWUD]LQHEHQWD]RQFDGPLXPDQG]LQFLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV9DOLGDWLRQ RQD(XURSHDQVFDOHLVRQJRLQJLQWKH$3(&23SURMHFW>@ $GYDQWDJHV ,WLVDVWDWHRIWKHDUWOHDFKLQJPRGHOZKLFKLVFDQXVHYHU\VSHFLILFLQSXWDQGSURGXFHYHU\ VSHFLILFRXWSXW'DLO\RXWSXWFDQEHSUHVHQWHGLQJUDSKVDQGVSUHDGVKHHWV
$QQH[,,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
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
JZ
DW FRUH GHSWK P PDVV
$YDLODELOLW\ )2&86ZHEVLWHIUHHZDUH>@ &RPSDUWPHQWV VRLODQGJURXQGZDWHU ,QSXWSURFHVVHV 6XPPDU\RIWKHSURFHVVHVLQ35=0 )2&86UHOHDVH SURFHVVQRWXVHGLQ)2&86 VFHQDULRV 3URFHVV
$SSURDFK FDSDFLW\EDVHG ZDWHU IORZ WLSSLQJ EXFNHW DSSURDFK XVLQJ D GDLO\ WLPH VWHS IRU DOO
ZDWHUPRYHPHQW
K\GURORJLFDOSURFHVVHVRSWLRQIRU5LFKDUG¶VHTXDWLRQEHORZWKHURRW]RQH 3UHIHUHQWLDOIORZ FDSLOODU\ULVHDQGGUDLQDJHDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHG
VXEVWDQFHPRYHPHQW
FRQYHFWLRQ GLVSHUVLRQ HTXDWLRQ EDVHG RQ D GDLO\ WLPH VWHS VROYHG E\ DQ VLPSOLI\LQJ EDFNZDUGGLIIHUHQFHPHWKRGZKLFKFDQSURGXFHDUWLILFLDOO\KLJKQXPHULFDOGLVSHUVLRQ FKDQJLQJ URRW ]RQH GXULQJ JURZLQJ VHDVRQ FKDQJLQJ IROLDJH ERWK KHLJKW DQG DUHDO H[WHQW
FURSVLPXODWLRQ
GXULQJ JURZLQJ VHDVRQ FURS LQWHUFHSWLRQ RI ZDWHU FURS LQWHUFHSWLRQ RI VXEVWDQFHV IROLDU ZDVKRII IROLDUGHJUDGDWLRQ
GHJUDGDWLRQLQVRLO
VXEVWDQFHVRUSWLRQWRVRLO
ILUVW RUGHU GHJUDGDWLRQ UDWH ZLWK RSWLRQ IRU ELSKDVLF GHJUDGDWLRQ RSWLRQ IRU HIIHFWV RI VRLO WHPSHUDWXUHDQGPRLVWXUHRQGHJUDGDWLRQ .G .RF RU QRUPDOLVHG )UHXQGOLFK HTXDWLRQ IRU VRUSWLRQ RSWLRQ IRU LQFUHDVLQJ VRUSWLRQ ZLWK WLPH
VXEVWDQFHYRODWLOLVDWLRQ IURPVRLO DSSURDFKLVDFRPELQDWLRQRIUHVXOWVIURPSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFK UXQRII
6RLO&RQVHUYDWLRQ6HUYLFHFXUYHQXPEHUWHFKQLTXH
VRLOHURVLRQ
8QLYHUVDO6RLO/RVV(TXDWLRQ
VRLOWHPSHUDWXUH SODQWXSWDNH VXEVWDQFHDSSOLFDWLRQV PHWDEROLVP
$SSURDFK LV EDVHG RQ SUHYLRXV ZRUN E\ D QXPEHU RI UHVHDUFKHUV LQFOXGLQJ 9DQ %DYHO DQG +LOOHO7KLERGHDX[+DQNV*XSWDDQG:DJHQHWDQG+XWVRQ VLPSOHPRGHOEDVHGRQVRLOFRQFHQWUDWLRQV DSSOLFDWLRQV PD\ EH IROLDU VSUD\V DSSOLHG WR WKH VRLO VXUIDFH RU LQFRUSRUDWHG LQWR WKH VRLO IRUVRLOLQFRUSRUDWHGDSSOLFDWLRQVDYDULHW\RIVRLOGLVWULEXWLRQVFDQEHVSHFLILHG XSWRWZRPHWDEROLWHVPD\EHVLPXODWHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ZLWKWKHSDUHQW
9DOLGDWLRQVWDWXV 7KHIXQFWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQRI35=0KDVEHHQGHVFULEHGE\VHYHUDOVWXGLHV> @ $GYDQWDJHV 35=0 KDV DGYDQWDJHV LQ D FRPSXWHU HQYLURQPHQW ZLWK OLPLWHG KDUGZDUH UHFRXUVHV 'LVDGYDQWDJHV )2&86B35=0LVQRWFDSDEOHRIJHQHUDWLQJXVHUGHILQHGRXWSXWSDUDPHWHUV $QQH[,
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
,,3(/02 3(/02 LV D RQH GLPHQVLRQDO VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO VLPXODWLQJ WKH YHUWLFDO PRYHPHQW RI SHVWLFLGHVLQVRLOE\FKURPDWRJUDSKLFOHDFKLQJ7KHILUVWYHUVLRQRI3(/02ZDVUHOHDVHGLQ >@3(/02LVEDVHGRQWKH86(3$¶V35=0PRGHO> @EXWZDVLPSURYHGZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI WKH *HUPDQ DXWKRULWLHV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH UHJLVWUDWLRQ RI SHVWLFLGHV7KHDFWXDOYHUVLRQXVHGIRUWKH)2&86VLPXODWLRQVLV3(/02 (QGSRLQW )2&86 WDUJHW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 3(& DW P GHSWK DQG JURXQGZDWHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DW WKH ERWWRPRIWKHVRLOSURILOH JZ
$YDLODELOLW\ )2&86ZHEVLWHIUHHZDUH>@ &RPSDUWPHQWV /HDFKDWHDQGJURXQGZDWHU ,QSXWSURFHVVHV 6XPPDU\RIWKHSURFHVVHVLQ3(/02> WXUQHGRIIIRUWKH)2&86VFHQDULRV@ 3URFHVV
ZDWHUPRYHPHQW SHVWLFLGHPRYHPHQW
$SSURDFK FDSDFLW\EDVHG ZDWHU IORZ WLSSLQJ EXFNHW DSSURDFK XVLQJ D GDLO\ WLPH VWHS IRU DOO K\GURORJLFDOSURFHVVHVSUHIHUHQWLDOIORZDQGFDSLOODU\ULVHDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHG FRQYHFWLRQGLVSHUVLRQHTXDWLRQEDVHGRQDGDLO\WLPHVWHS FKDQJLQJ URRW ]RQH GXULQJ JURZLQJ VHDVRQ FKDQJLQJ IROLDJH DUHDO H[WHQW GXULQJ JURZLQJ
FURSVLPXODWLRQ
VHDVRQ FURS LQWHUFHSWLRQ RI ZDWHU FURS LQWHUFHSWLRQ RI SHVWLFLGHV IROLDU ZDVKRII IROLDU GHJUDGDWLRQ
GHJUDGDWLRQLQVRLO
SHVWLFLGHVRUSWLRQWRVRLO
ILUVW RUGHU GHJUDGDWLRQ UDWH FRUUHFWLRQ RI UDWH FRQVWDQW ZLWK GHSWK VRLO PRLVWXUH DQG VRLO WHPSHUDWXUHV .G .RF )UHXQGOLFK HTXDWLRQ IRU VRUSWLRQ RSWLRQ IRU LQFUHDVH RI VRUSWLRQ ZLWK WLPH RSWLRQ IRU DXWRPDWHGS+GHSHQGHQFH
SHVWLFLGHYRODWLOLVDWLRQ IURPVRLO VLPSOHPRGHOXVLQJ)LFN¶VDQG+HQU\¶VODZ UXQRII
6RLO&RQVHUYDWLRQ6HUYLFHFXUYHQXPEHUWHFKQLTXH
VRLOHURVLRQ
0RGLILHG8QLYHUVDO6RLO/RVV(TXDWLRQ
VRLOWHPSHUDWXUH
DQHPSLULFDOPRGHOWKDWXVHVDLUWHPSHUDWXUHV
SODQWXSWDNH
VLPSOHPRGHOEDVHGRQVRLOFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
SHVWLFLGHDSSOLFDWLRQV
PHWDEROLVP
DSSOLFDWLRQVPD\EHIROLDUVSUD\VDSSOLHGWRWKHVRLOVXUIDFHRULQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHVRLO IRU VRLOLQFRUSRUDWHGDSSOLFDWLRQVDYDULHW\RIVRLOGLVWULEXWLRQVFDQEHVSHFLILHG D VRSKLVWLFDWHG VFKHPH ZLWK XS WR PHWDEROLWHV $ ! % DV ZHOO DV $ ! % ! & PD\ EH VLPXODWHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ZLWKWKHSDUHQW
9DOLGDWLRQVWDWXV 7KHIXQFWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQRI3(/02KDVEHHQGHVFULEHGLQVHYHUDOVWXGLHV>@ $GYDQWDJHV 6LPLODUWR35=03(/02KDVDGYDQWDJHVLQDFRPSXWHUHQYLURQPHQWZLWKOLPLWHGKDUGZDUH UHFRXUVHV2QVWDQGDUG3&V HJ3HQWLXP,,,0+]0% WKHW\SLFDOFRPSXWLQJWLPH IRUDVWDQGDUG7LHUUXQZLWK VFHQDULRVLVDERXWWRPLQXWHV)2&863(/02DOORZV HIILFLHQWDQGXVHUIULHQGO\FDOFXODWLRQVIRUFRPSRXQGVXSWRHLJKWPHWDEROLWHV 'LVDGYDQWDJHV )2&86B3(/02LVQRWFDSDEOHRIJHQHUDWLQJXVHUGHILQHGRXWSXWSDUDPHWHUV
$QQH[,,
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
,,&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRI)2&86VWDQGDUGVFHQDULRV 7DEOH0DMRUVRLODQGPHWHRURORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI)2&86VWDQGDUGVFHQDULRV /RFDWLRQ &KkWHDXGXQ +DPEXUJ
$QQXDOWHPS & $QQXDOUDLQIDOO PP 7RSVRLO
2UJDQLFPDWWHU
&OD\
VLOW\FOD\ORDP
VDQG\ORDP
-RNLRLQHQ
ORDP\VDQG
.UHPVPQVWHU
ORDPVLOWORDP
2NHKDPSWRQ
ORDP
3LDFHQ]D
ORDP
3RUWR
ORDP
6HYLOOD
VLOWORDP
7KLYD
ORDP
6RXUFH >@
)LJXUH0DSRI)2&86DUHD
$QQH[,
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
,,6XEVWDQFHSURSHUWLHV
)LJXUH6WUXFWXUDOIRUPXODRIR[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
)LJXUH6WUXFWXUDOIRUPXODRIVXOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
)LJXUH 6WUXFWXUDOIRUPXODRIW\ORVLQ
$QQH[,,
GLPHWK\ODPLQR
DDD
&KHPLFDO
QDPH
0ROHFXODUZHLJKWFDOFXODWRU
>@
>@
>@
&+12 Â32
)HHGDGGLWLYH
7DLOH[LQ
SKRVSKDWH
7\ORVLQ
S.D
>@
&+12 Â&+2
,QGULQNLQJGRVHV
7DLOH[LQ
7\ORVLQ$ %&HQ'
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
7\ORVLQ
>@
$QQH[,,
PJ/DW &
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
SDJHRI
/RJ.RZ
&
PP+JDW
SUHVVXUH
PJ/
> @
7UHH7HFK27&
FRPSOH[
>@FDOFLXP
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
9DSRXU
LQZDWHU
6ROXELOLW\
ZHLJKW
0ROHFXODU
QXPEHU
&DV
&+&O12
IRUPXOD
,QMHFWLRQRUDOO\
(PSHULFDO
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQHK\GURFKORULGH
$SSOLFDWLRQ
/LTXDP\FLQ7HUUDP\FLQ
7UDGH
&+12
GLK\GUDWH
QDPHV
QDPH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
&RPPRQ
QDSKWDFHQHFDUER[DPLGH
PHWK\OGLR[R
DKH[DK\GUR[\
RFWDK\GUR
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
6XEVWDQFH
7DEOH3K\VLFRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVXEVWDQFHV
5,90UHSRUW
J/
>@
&+12 Â&+2
7\ODQ7\ODQ6ROXEOH
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
GLK\GUR[\EXWDQHGLRDWH
55
ORDPSLJ
/RDPSLJ
W\ORVLQ$
ORDP\
7\ORVLQ
7\ORVLQ
FOD\ORDP
7\ORVLQ
VDQG
ORDP\
VDQG
FOD\ORDP
7\ORVLQ
PDQXUH
6DQG\
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
PDQXUH
6DQG\
W\ORVLQ$
WDQNNHSWIRU
PDQXUH
8.VXE
8.WRS
8.VXE
8.WRS
$VNRY
'HQPDUN
/XQGJDDUG
'HQPDUN
GP
GD\V
'HQPDUN
%RUULV'.
)UHVKSLJ
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
W\ORVLQ$
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
VDQG
/RDP\
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
'.
)ODNNHEMHUJ
'.
6DQG
/XQGJDDUG
ORDP
$VNRZ'.
2ULJLQ
6DQG\
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
6DQG\
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
ORDP
0DWUL[
6XEVWDQFH
S+
20
7DEOH 2YHUYLHZDGVRUSWLRQH[SHULPHQWVZLWKW\ORVLQ
SDJHRI
&OD\
&(&
$QQH[,,
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
PDQXUH
GLIIHUHQW
NJ/
KRXUV
UDWLR J PO
(TWLPH
6RLO ZDWHU
FRQF
+3/&
+3/&
/&06
/&06
QU
.)
Q
> @
>@
>@
>@
>@
5HI
3UREDEO\DQ
&RPPHQW
8QSXEOLVHG
8QSXEOLVHG
8QSXEOLVHG
8QSXEOLVHG
2(&'
,UUDGLDWHGVRLO
ZLWKWKH.)
LQFRQVLVWHQF\
ORDPVHH
.GLQVDQG\
GHULYDWLRQRI
LQWKH
/&06
.RP
HUURURFFXUUHG
.G
/&06
$QDO\VLV
PJ/
&RQF
5,90UHSRUW
FOD\ORDP
ORDP\
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
VDQG
ORDP\
8.VXE
8.WRS
8.VXE
8.WRS
2ULJLQ
S+
20
&OD\ORDP
&OD\ORDP
6DQG\
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
PDQXUH
K\GURFKORULGH
ORDP
6DQG\
ORDP
)UHVKSLJ
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
VDQG
/RDP\
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
8.VXE
8.WRS
8.VXE
8.WRS
GP
GD\V
WDQNNHSWIRU
'HQPDUN
%RUULV'.
'.
)ODNNHEMHUJ
'.
ORDP
6DQG
/XQGJDDUG
$VNRZ'.
2ULJLQ
6DQG\
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
6DQG\
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
ORDP
0DWUL[
6XEVWDQFH
S+
20
&OD\
7DEOH2YHUYLHZRIDGVRUSWLRQVWXGLHVZLWKR[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
FOD\ORDP
6XOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
VDQG
0DWUL[
6XEVWDQFH
&(&
&OD\
7DEOH2YHUYLHZRIDGVRUSWLRQVWXGLHVZLWKVXOSKDFKORURS\ULGD]LQH
5,90UHSRUW
$QQH[,,
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
PDQXUH
GLIIHUHQW
NJ/
KRXUV
(TWLPH
Q
Q
>@
>@
5HI
> @
5HI
2QO\WZRRI
&RPPHQW
8QSXEOLVHG
8QSXEOLVHG
8QSXEOLVHG
8QSXEOLVHG
&RPPHQW
+3/&
/&06
/&06
> @
2(&'
,UUDGLDWHGVRLO
.IQRWSRVVLEOH
FDOFXODWLRQRI
!/2'
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
VKRZHG
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
.)
.)
ILYH
.RP
.RP
/&06
/&06
.G
.G
$QDO\VLV
$QDO\VLV
PJ/
&RQF
PJ/
&RQF
KRXUV
UDWLR J PO
UDWLR J PO
(TWLPH
6RLO ZDWHU
6RLO ZDWHU
&(&
SDJHRI
6RLO
6XUIDFHZDWHU
7\ORVLQ'
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
)LHOGVRLO
)LHOGVRLO
7\ORVLQ
SLJPDQXUH
RU
DPHQGHGZLWK
6RLOVOXUU\
SLJPDQXUH
RU
DPHQGHGZLWK
6RLOVOXUU\
7\ORVLQ
W\ORVLQ$
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
W\ORVLQ$
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
W\ORVLQ$
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
6XUIDFHZDWHU
6RLO
7\ORVLQWDUWUDWH
W\ORVLQ$
0DWUL[
6XEVWDQFH
PHTNJ
&(&
&RQF
$VNRY
'HQPDUN
/XQGJDDUG
'HQPDUN
$VNRY
'HQPDUN
/XQGJDDUG
'HQPDUN
VWUHDP
&D&O
&D&O
mJNJ
mJNJ
mJ/
$QQH[,,
mJ/
mJ/
'HQPDUN
DJULFXOWXUDO
7XGHn
VWUHDP
VPDOOIRUHVW
XQSROOXWHG
'HQPDUN
mJ/
&OD\
% N
20
3+
2FWREHU
)LHOG0D\
2FWREHU
)LHOG0D\
$HURELF
$HURELF
$HURELF
$HURELF
,QFXEDWLRQ
5,90UHSRUW
)¡QVWUXS
2ULJLQ
7DEOH2YHUYLHZRIGHJUDGDWLRQVWXGLHVZLWKW\ORVLQ
SDJHRI
7HPS
1'
GD\V
'7
0606
/&(6,
0606
/&(6,
+3/&
+3/&
+3/&
+3/&
$QDO\VLV
> @
> @
>@
>@
> @
> @
5HI
WLPHV
DSSOLFDWLRQ
PHWHRQR
DQLPDOVQR
WUHDWHG
PDQXUHRI
6SLNHG
XQNQRZQ
PHGLXPS+
/PLQHUDO
JVRLOLQ
,62
/DJWLPH
GHSHQGHQFH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
1R
,62
WRRVKRUW
7HVWSHULRG
,62
1RGHWDLOV
1RGHWDLOV
&RPPHQW
0DWUL[
6XUIDFHZDWHU
6XUIDFHZDWHU
6XEVWDQFH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
VWUHDP
DJULFXOWXUDO
'HQPDUN
7XGHn
VWUHDP
VPDOOIRUHVW
XQSROOXWHG
'HQPDUN
% N
)¡QVWUXS
2ULJLQ
3+
20
7DEOH2YHUYLHZRIGHJUDGDWLRQVWXGLHVZLWKR[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
5,90UHSRUW
&OD\
mJ/
mJ/
&RQF
$QQH[,,
PHTNJ
&(&
$QDHURELF
$QDHURELF
,QFXEDWLRQ
SDJH RI
7HPS
GD\V
'7
+3/&
+3/&
$QDO\VLV
> @
> @
5HI
1RODJWLPH
,62
1RO/DJWLPH
GHSHQGHQFH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
1R
,62
&RPPHQW
SDJHRI
$QQH[,,
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
SDJHRI
)LJXUH5HODWLRQEHWZHHQ.RPRIR[\WHWUDF\FOLQHDQGFOD\FRQWHQWLQWKHVRLO
2[\WHWUDF\FOLQH
.RP
&OD\
9DULDEOHV 6ORSH
