EURASIAN SUPER GRID FOR 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY POWER SUPPLY: GENERATION AND STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE COST OPTIMAL MIX Dmitrii Bogdanov and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland
ISES Solar World Congress 2015 Daegu, 12.11.2015
Agenda
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Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Eurasia’s RE potential • Huge renewable resources of Eurasia: • Perfect wind conditions in North Russia • Perfect wind and solar irradiation in Central Asia • High hydro capacities and potential in Siberia, Volga region and Pamir • High share of hydro dam power plants providing additional flexibility to the system • Vast biomass resources from residues from agricultural and forestry industries
• Growing electricity demand • Promising possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE system using current technologies
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Current status of the power plant mix
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Agenda
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Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Key Objective Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply • optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources, • optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region of Eurasia, • optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, • least cost energy supply for the given constraints.
LUT Energy model, key features • • • •
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linear optimization model hourly resolution multi-node approach flexibility and expandability
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Input data • historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind speed and hydro precipitation • available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy • synthesized power load data • gas and water desalination demand • efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants • efficiency of energy conversion processes • capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources • min and max capacity limits for all RE resources • nodes and interconnections configuration
Methodology Full system Renewable energy sources • PV ground-mounted • PV single-axis tracking • PV rooftop • Wind onshore • Hydro run-of-river • Hydro dam • Geothermal energy • CSP • Waste-to-energy • Biogas • Biomass Electricity transmission • node-internal AC transmission • interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options • Batteries • Pumped hydro storages • Adiabatic compressed air storage • Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat • Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas • Water electrolysis • Methanation • CO2 from air Eurasian Grid for 100% RE power supply • GasSuper storage 7 Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Energy Demand • Electricity • Water Desalination • Industrial Gas
Scenarios assumptions
13 regions • 7 Federal Districts of Russia • Belarus • Caucasus region including Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia • Kazakhstan • Pamir region including Kirgizstan and Tajikistan • Uzbekistan • Turkmenistan 8
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Key data • ~244 mio population (2030) • ~1450 TWh electricity demand (2030) • ~255 GW peak load (2030) • ~21 mio km2 area • ~18 bil m3/a water desalination demand (2030)
Scenarios assumptions Grid configurations
• Regional-wide open trade • (no interconnections between regions)
• Country-wide open trade • (no interconnections between countries)
• Area-wide open trade • (country-wide HVDC grids are interconnected)
• Area-wide open trade with water desalination and industrial gas production Scenarios Assumption PV selfconsumption
Regional-wide Country-wide open trade open trade X
X
Area-wide open trade
Area-wide open trade Des-Gas
X
X
Water Desalination
X
Industrial Gas
X
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Generation costs
Technology PV rooftop PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis Wind onshore Hydro Run-of-River Hydro Dam Geothermal energy Water electrolysis Methanation CO2 scrubbing CCGT OCGT Biomass PP Wood gasifier CHP Biogas CHP MSW incinerator Steam Turbine Technology Water Desalination
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Capex [€/kW] 813 550 620 1000 2560 1650 4860 380 234 356 775 475 2500 1500 370 5240 700
Opex fix [€/kW] 12 8 9 20 115.2 66 87 13 5 14 19 14 175 20 14.8 235.8 14
Opex var [€/kWh] 0 0 0 0 0.005 0.003 0 0.001 0 0.0013 0.002 0.011 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.007 0
Lifetime [a] 35 35 35 25 60 60 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 20 20 30
Capex [€/(m3∙a)] 2.23
Opex fix [€/(m3∙a)] 0.096
Opex var [€/(m3∙a)] 0
Lifetime [a] 30
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Technology Battery PHS A-CAES Gas Storage
Battery PHS A-CAES Gas Storage Water Electrolysis CO2 Scrubbing Methanisation CCGT OCGT Geothermal energy MSW Incinerator Biogas CHP Steam Turbine CSP collector
Energy/Power Ratio [h] 6 8 100 80*24 Efficiency [%] 90 92 70 100 84 78 77 58 43 24 34 40 42 51
Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Storage and transmission costs Technology Battery PHS A-CAES Gas Storage Technology Water Storage
Technology Horizontal pumping Vertical pumping Technology Transmission Line Technology Converter Station
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Capex [€/kWh] 150 70 31 0.05
Opex fix [€/(kWh∙a)] 10 11 0.4 0
Opex var [€/kWh] 0.0002 0.0002 0.0012 0
Lifetime [a] 10 50 40 50
Capex [€/(m3∙h)] 65
Opex fix [€/(m3∙h∙a)] 1
Opex var [€/(m3∙h)] 0
Lifetime [a] 50
Capex [€/(m3∙h∙km)]
Opex fix [€/(m3∙h∙km∙a)]
15 23
2.3 2.4
Energy consumption [kWh/(m3∙h∙km)] 0.0004 0.0036
Capex [€/(kW∙km)] 0.612
Opex fix [€/(kW∙km∙a)] 0.0075
Opex var [€/kW] 0
Capex [€/kW] Opex fix [€/(kW∙a)] Opex var [€/kW] 180 1.8 0
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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WACC = 7% Lifetime [a] 30 30 Lifetime [a] 50 Lifetime [a] 50
Scenarios assumptions Full load hours Region Russia NorthWest Russia Central Russia Southern Russia Volga Russia Ural Russia Siberian Russian Far East Belarus Caucasus Kazakhstan Pamir Uzbekistan Turkmenistan
PV fixed- PV 1-axis CSP Wind tilted FLH FLH FLH FLH 979
1262
1200 3636
1130 1241 1184 1014 1174 1136 1058 1414 1427 1688 1518 1542
1408 1511 1473 1292 1491 1477 1281 1667 1815 2178 1931 1935
1221 1305 1314 1194 1390 1397 1074 1398 1726 1970 1872 1829
2970 3155 2973 3502 3049 2712 2835 1877 3149 2337 2766 2769
FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each): 0%-10% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.3 10%-20% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.3 20%-30% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.2 30%-40% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.1 40%-50% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.1
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Data: based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0) reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)
Scenarios assumptions PV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030)
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Scenarios assumptions Generation profile (area aggregated)
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PV generation profile
Wind generation profile
Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule.
Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule.
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Scenarios assumptions Load (area aggregated) Synthesized load curves for each region Total load (2030)
Total load (2030) - including the impact of prosumers (less load)
Key insights: • PV self-consumption does not reduce the peak load but reduces the gradients in the system 15
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Agenda
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Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Total 2030 Scenario LCOE
LCOE primary
LCOC
[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] Region-wide
Country-wide Area-wide Area-wide Des-Gas*,**
Total ann. Total RE Generated cost CAPEX capacities electricity
LCOS
LCOT
[€/kWh]
[€/kWh]
[bn €]
[bn €]
[GW]
[TWh]
0.063 0.057 0.053
0.043 0.042 0.041
0.003 0.002 0.002
0.017 0.011 0.007
0.000 0.002 0.004
91 82 77
837 758 713
739 648 583
1771 1681 1613
0.043
0.039
0.001
0.001
0.002
125
1166
981
2654
Total LCOE LCOS Total ann. Total RE Generated LCOE*** primary prosumer Cost CAPEX capacities electricity prosumer prosumer prosumer prosumer prosumer prosumer [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]
0.042
17
0.054
0
5
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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61
91
109
*
additional demand 86% gas and 14% desalination ** LCOS does not include the cost for the industrial gas (LCOG) *** fully included in table above
LCOW: 1.49 €/m3 LCOG: 0.113 €/kWhth,gas
Results Self-Consumption – Eurasia super-region area-wide open trade
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Electricity price [€/kWh] PV LCOE [€/kWh] Self-consumption PV LCOE [€/kWh] Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [€/kWh] Self-consumption LCOE [€/kWh] Benefit [€/kWh]
RES 0.065 0.036 0.045 0.045 0.040 0.025
2030 COM 0.075 0.049 0.054 0.054 0.052 0.023
IND 0.085 0.049 0.057 0.057 0.054 0.031
Installed capacities PV [GW] Battery storage [GWh]
RES 19 0
COM 26 0
IND 46 0
Generation PV [TWh] Battery storage [TWh] Excess [TWh]
RES 22.8 0 4.6
COM 31.3 0 3.2
IND 55.0 0 7.4
Utilization Self-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] Self-coverage market segment [%] Self-coverage operators [%]
RES 79.7 7.5 37.3
COM 89.8 6.1 30.7
IND 86.5 6.4 31.8
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., 2014. Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26
Results Total Electricity generation RE (TWh)
Benefits of electricity and industrial gas sectors integration – Area-wide desalination gas 3500 3000
18.3 % relative integration benefit 594 TWh absolute integration benefit
DesalinationSector
2500 2000
Key insights: • integration benefits: decrease in total electricity demand and total annual levelized cost • descrease in total electricity curtailment losses of 41.4% (46.6 TWh absolute) and in total capex by 24.5% (379 bn€ absolute)
Ind Gas Sector
1500
1000
Power Sector
500 0 180
Independent sectors
Integrated sectors
Total annual cost (bn€)
160 140
DesalinationSector
120 100
Ind Gas Sector
80 60 40
Power Sector
20 0 Independent sectors
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Integrated sectors
23.2% relative integration benefit 37.8 bn€ absolute integration benefit
Results Import / Export (year 2030) Area-wide open trade
Key insights: • Net Importers: Belarus, Central Russia • Net Exporters: Northwest Russia, Ural, Pamir
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – region-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – region-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – region-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – region-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – area-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – area-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – area-wide open trade
27
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Total LCOE (year 2030) – area-wide open trade
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Components of LCOE – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas Area-wide open trade
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Installed Capacities
2030 Scenario
Hydro Hydro Wind PV RoR dams Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS CAES
[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW]
[GW]
[GW]
[GW]
PtG
GT
[GWh] [GWh] [GWh] [GWel] [GW]
Region-wide 327 207
0.2
88
15.2
17.3
1.3
2.7
15.2
9.0
1783
32.5
89
Country-wide 318 146
0.2
88
15.1
16.7
1.3
2.7
15.2
9.0
497.4 21.7
71
Area-wide
300
113
0.1
91
13.8
16.4
1.3
2.7
8.7
9.0
0.3
15.8
Integrated
560 263
6.4
91
10.4
14.5
1.3
2.4
0.5
9.0
0.0
105.2 34
2030 Scenario
PV PV PV fixed-tilted single-axis prosumers
PV total
Battery Battery Battery system prosumers total
[GW]
[GW]
[GW]
[GW]
[GWh]
[GWh]
[GWh]
Region-wide
6.0
109.4
91.5
206.9
15.2
0
15.2
Country-wide
6.0
49.0
91.5
146.5
15.2
0
15.2
Area-wide
6.5
15.5
91.5
113.4
8.7
0
8.7
Integrated
0.2
170.9
91.5
262.6
0.5
0
0.5
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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56
Results Resource utilization – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas Area-wide open trade
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
PV total capacity 113 GW
PV total capacity 263 GW, +133%
Wind total capacity 300 GW
Wind total capacity 560 GW, +87%
Key insights: • PV and wind capacities are increased substantially in area-wide desalinationgas scenario
31
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Regions Electricity Capacities – area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
Key insights: • Area-wide scenario shows negligible system PV capacities in most of the regions, prosumers share is restricted by low electricity prices • Specific climate conditions in Caucasus lead to significant share of fixed-tilted PV Key insights: • PV plays a major role in Area-wide desalination gas scenario for Central Asia and Caucasus • PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of electricity for water desalination and industrial gas production, especially for importing regions
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Storages
Storage capacities
Throughput of storages
Full cycles per year
Battery PHS A-CAES Gas Battery PHS A-CAES Gas Battery PHS A-CAES Gas 2030 Scenario [-] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [-] [-] [-] Region-wide
15.2
9.0
1783.5
87.2
4.7
1.6
41.2
147.6
307.0
181.0
23.1
1.7
Country-wide
15.2
9.0
497.4
69.9
4.7
1.5
11.6
107.9
307.0
163.3
23.3
1.5
Area-wide
8.7
9.0
0.3
62.9
3.1
1.5
0.0
89.7
354.5
161.5
-
1.4
Integration
0.5
9.0
0.0
70.3
0.1
0.9
0.0
11.4
260.0
100.1
-
0.2
Thermal energy storage share is negligible because of climate conditions being unfavourable for CSP power plants and lack of competitiveness of TES with other storage technologies.
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Storages Capacities – area-wide and area-wide open trade desalination gas Area-wide open trade
Key insights: • Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas: higher in absolute numbers, but lower in relative ones (from 3.7% to 2.6% of total generation). • Hydro dams as virtual battery very important, batteries do not play a significant role for balancing periods of wind and solar shortages
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Area-wide open trade desalination gas
Agenda
35
Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
[email protected]
Results Net importer region – Central Russia
36
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Balancing region – Kazakhstan
37
Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Net exporter region – North-West Russia
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Results Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas (2030)
Key insights: • PV generation share does not exceed 14%, Wind is the major energy source • A-CAES and gas storages are substituted by flexible demand of gas synthesis
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Eurasian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ►
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Comparison to other regions Regions
LCOE total regionwide
LCOE total areawide
Integrat storag grids Curtail PV PV Wind Biomass hydro* ion es* interre ment prosu system * * benefit gional mers* * ** trade*
[€/MWh]
[€/MWh]
[%]
[%]
[%]
[%]
[%]
North-East Asia
77
68
6.0%
10%
26%
6%
14.3%
South-East Asia
67
64
9.5%
8%
3%
3%
Eurasia
63
53
23.2%