Jan 17, 2017 - Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM). Bangladesh University of Engineering and ... Policy Massage and Recommendation .
Term Paper on
Flood and Flood Management in Bangladesh 1/17/2017
Course: DSMHT 403 Climate Modelling and Adaptation
Submitted to A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
Submitted By Mirza Shihab Uddin Md. Raisul Islam Shamrat Md. Syadur Rahaman
FH - 001 SH - 008 SH - 027
Dept. of Disaster Science and Management Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Dhaka
Table of Contents 1.
Introduction............................................................................................. 2
2.
Flood and Flood Management Bangladesh ............................................ 4
3.
Methodology ........................................................................................... 7
4.
Forecasting .............................................................................................. 8
4.1. Observation and Prediction .................................................................... 8 4.2. Early Warning and Dissemination........................................................ 11 5.
Impact Analysis .................................................................................... 12
6.
Policy Massage and Recommendation ................................................. 14
7.
Conclusion ............................................................................................ 14
8.
References............................................................................................. 16
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1. Introduction Climate change is the reality and Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country around the world. The frequency and intensity of natural hazard are increasing day by day parallel to the climate change. Every year this country loss a large part of GDP as an economic loss. The flood was the most frequent disaster in this country and every year face this disaster. The Climate change and the geographic location makes more vulnerable to the flood also some socio-economic settings are increased the level of vulnerability. Due to the vulnerability and the frequent flood the losses are high. Naturally Bangladesh is a low laying country stand on the foot hill of the Himalayan mountain. Bangladesh lies approximately between 20o30’ and 26o40’ north latitude and 88o03’ and 92o40’ east longitude. It is one of the biggest active deltas in the world with an area of about 1,47,570 sq.-km (BWDB, 2014). The west, north and most part of the east are India border, some part of south-eastern area was Myanmar border and the Bay of Bengal is in the south. The country is under sub-tropical monsoon climate, annual average precipitation is 2,300 mm, varying from 1,200 mm in the north-west to over 5,000 mm in the north-east (BWDB, 2014). It has 405 rivers including 57 transboundary rivers, among them 54 originated from India including three
Figure -1: GBM(Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Basin)
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major rivers the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna other three rivers originated from Myanmar (BWDB, 2011). Monsoon flood inundation of about 20% to 25% area of the country is assumed beneficial for crops, ecology and environment, inundation of more than that causing direct and indirect damages and considerable inconveniences to the population. Naturally Bangladesh is low laying flood plain country with only few hill in south-east and the north-east part. Generally, the ground slop of this country extend from north to south with elevation rand 1-60 m above MSL (BWDB, 2014). The country consists of the flood plains of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna rivers and their numerous tributaries and distributaries. The Ganges and the Brahmaputra join together at Aricha-Goalundo and is known as the Padma River. The river Meghna joining the Padma near Chandpur flows to the Bay of Bengal as the Meghna River. The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river are generating a basin named GBM which cover almost most of the area of this country and drained the huge runoff through this three river system. The catchment of this basin approximately 1721300 sq.-km which only about 7% lies in Bangladesh and the rest 93% (JRCB, 2016) Figure -1) are outside this country also around 100900 million m3 (BWDB, 2014)water pass through this river system during the rainy season. Most of the rivers are characterized by having sandy bottoms, flat slopes, substantial meandering, banks susceptible to erosion and channel shifting. The Brahmaputra is named Jamuna after entrancing the Bangladesh at Bahadurabad above Bahadurabad the length approximately 2900 km (BWDB, 2014)with travel in the complex mountain terrain bordering north-east India and China it bends through a series of gorges. The Gages river about 2600 km to its confluence with the Brahmaputra-Jamuna at Aricha-Goalundo ad catchment about 90700 sq.-km (BWDB, 2014). and the Meghna was entrance in Bangladesh at Amalshid in Sylhet district and its meet into Padma at Chandpur which came after meeting the Ganges and Brahmaputra at Aricha-Goalundo then named after Chandpur as Meghna and flow water into Bay of Bangla. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center(FFWC) under the Bangladesh Water Development Board(BWDB) mainly taken the responsibility of the flood prediction and early warning also flood management. The flood management works is done by the Bangladesh Water Development Board(BWDB).
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Over the last century global mean surface temperature has increased .4-.8o C larger than the estimation
of
Second
Assessment Report(SAR) of the IPCC for the period of 1994
(Mirza,
2002).
The
change of temperature or global warming has increased the frequency and magnitude of the natural disaster like the flood. Some future scenario has been developed through several modelling around the
Figure -2 The Climate Change Scenario
world. The four different scenario are face for different scenario of carbon emission as climate change. The Figure -2 has showed the scenario where the over the period 1990 to 2100 the global projected to increase by 1.4-5.8oC (Mirza, 2002; Mirza, 2011). Under climate change scenarios, it is feared that about 18 per cent of current low-lying flooded areas will face higher levels of flooding, while about 12–16 per cent of new areas will become flood prone. Therefore, in a normal flood year, the extent of flooding may increase from 23 per cent to 39 per cent, while over twothirds of the landmass of the country could be engulfed by flood in a catastrophic flood event (Mallick, et al., 2005; Mirza, 2011). The rise of MSL has been increase the height of flood inundation.
2. Flood and Flood Management Bangladesh Bangladesh experiences four different types of floods: flash floods, riverine floods, rain floods and storm-surge floods (Mirza, 2002; BWDB, 2011). Flash floods occur in the eastern and northern rivers, along the borders of Bangladesh which characterized sudden sharp rise of water level. Riverine floods from the spilling of major rivers and their tributaries and distributaries generally rise and fall slowly over 10–20 days or more and can cause extensive damage to property and the loss of life (Mirza, 2002). Depth and extent of floods and associated damage are extensive when the major rivers reach their peaks simultaneously. Rain floods are caused by high intensity local rainfall of long duration in the monsoon. From year to year, the extent and depth of rain water flooding varies with the monsoon, depending on the amount and intensity of local precipitation and current water levels in the major rivers that control drainage from the land. Storm surge floods 4|Page
occur in the coastal area of Bangladesh, which consists of large estuaries, extensive tidal flats, and low-lying islands. Historically Bangladesh is low laying flood prone country, though ancient year to present year the several method and systems are used for the flood management. In ancient period to colonial period the flood management limited to the embankment and cannel digging, road link, river link when flood management base under the concept of agriculture, crop production. In colonial period there some changes in flood management but these are not sustained and proper. The series of devastating flood in 1950 than first foreign advisory mission came that name of Krug Mission 1956-57. The first masterplan developed in 1964 and started coastal embankment project 1968 as a result of Krug Mission. With the suggestion of Krug Mission, a national scale Flood Control and Drainage(FCD) project has been taken and this FCD project continue till creation of Flood Action Programme(FAP).
This method of flood management was not proper and sustainable for
Bangladesh thus this can’t help in flood management and we see the more devastating flood after the existing of embankment. Table -1 Year-wise Flood Affected Area in Bangladesh (Mirza, 2002)
Flood affected area Year
Sq-Km
Flood affected area Year
%
Sq-Km
Year
Flood affected area Sq-Km
%
%
1954
36,800
25
1976
28,300
19
1998
1,00,250
68
1955
50,500
34
1977
12,500
8
1999
32,000
22
1956
35,400
24
1978
10,800
7
2000
35,700
24
1960
28,400
19
1980
33,000
22
2001
4,000
2.8
1961
28,800
20
1982
3,140
2
2002
15,000
10
1962
37,200
25
1983
11,100
7.5
2003
21,500
14
1963
43,100
29
1984
28,200
19
2004
55,000
38
1964
31,000
21
1985
11,400
8
2005
17,850
12
1965
28,400
19
1986
6,600
4
2006
16,175
11
1966
33,400
23
1987
57,300
39
2007
62,300
42
1967
25,700
17
1988
89,970
61
2008
33,655
23
1968
37,200
25
1989
6,100
4
2009
28,593
19 5|Page
1969
41,400
28
1990
3,500
2.4
2010
26,530
18
1970
42,400
29
1991
28,600
19
2011
29,800
12
1971
36,300
25
1992
2,000
1.4
2012
17,700
20
1972
20,800
14
1993
28,742
20
2013
15,650
10.6
1973
29,800
20
1994
419
0.2
2014
36,895
25
1974
52,600
36
1995
32,000
22
1975
16,600
11
1996
35,800
24
Flood forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development (BWDB) was established as a permanent entity in 1972 with the help of international aid. Since its inception UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) supported different activities of FF&WC through different projects till 1992. During the period 1991-1995 the center again received assistance from DANIDA through a component of the Flood Action Plan (FAP), to improve and expand the flood forecasting and warning services. Currently DANIDA assisted project "Consolidation and strengthening of flood forecasting and warning services" was implemented for the period Jan’2000 to Dec.'2004. The project has started functioning since mid-January 2000 (BWDB, 2011; Mirza, 2011). The next attempt to promote integrated development was the Flood Action Plan (FAP 1989–1995), a hotly debated venture. The plan, a series of studies and pilots aimed at developing an adequate response to the regularly recurring floods—and droughts was a multi-donor initiative after the calamitous floods of 1987 and 1988. Much has been written about the plan, with most of the criticism centered on the initial (overly) ambitious plans to construct huge embankments on the major rivers. Major positive outcomes of the initiative included the formulation of guidelines for participation and environmental impact assessment and a better understanding of flood management and the effect of flood control and drainage on fisheries. has been formed and changed the flood management paradigm to more focused on pre disaster flood preparedness rather than the post disaster flood management as relief and rehabilitation (Mallick, et al., 2005). The several law act and policy developed through this time Bangladesh Government has already finalized Flood Management Strategy in 1995, National Water Policy in 1998 and National Water Management Plan in 2004 (Hossain & Katiyar, 2006; BWDB, 2014).
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Figure - -3 History of Flood Management
Source: Adopt from (Haskoning, 2003) The issues of flood management should be considered from different angles of improvement of quality of life, impact on physical environment, socio-economic condition and environmental preservation etc. It is usually found that different methods or techniques are practiced in different parts of the world to tackle the flood problems. Bangladesh Practices two type of flood management structural and non-structural flood management. The structural measures are mainly engineering structure build for protect the flood such as Flood Embankment, Channel Improvement, River Training, Coastal Embankment etc. The non-structural option consists of the Flood Plain Zoning & Management; Policies for infrastructure Planning and Development in the flood plains; Flood Proofing; Disaster Preparedness & Response Planning and Flood Forecasting and Warning.
3. Methodology These study was done based on the secondary source as well as the literature review. The secondary source is the mainly GoB report provided by Bangladesh Water Development Board is the main body provided the national flood information. Every year BWDB publish annual flood report which are available in the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center website. The national and international NGOs and financial institutions are also publishing the flood report and also flood
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data. The free available journal paper is used for the analysis and find out the present flood management model. The FFWC, BMD (Bangladesh Meteorological Department), BWDB website are used for study the flood and flood management in Bangladesh.
4. Forecasting A successful adaptation measures are coming from the successful observation and the prediction of the future scenario of the event also the Successful adaptation that balances effectiveness, efficiency and equity through decision-making structures that promote learning and are perceived to be legitimate is an ideal from which much adaptation inevitably diverges (Adgr, et al., 2005). A rapid development of computer technology, computer modelling and wide range of satellite imagery are helpful for an accurate and long term flood forecasting. The mid-term (5 to 14 days) and long term (monthly, seasonal) (Hossain, 2003) flood forecasting are helpful for the reduces the direct and indirect damage. The worldwide several method and systems are used for the flood prediction and early warning. In Bangladesh we use mainly two range of flood forecast one is the medium range another is the long range also have the different benefit of this two different type of forecast. The medium range forecast is helpful for the agricultural sector like transplanting and harvesting of the crop. The long range forecast helpful for the planning and decision making. 4.1. Observation and Prediction
The better flood management depended upon the better observation and prediction. The flood hazard is a hydro-metrological hazard which are controlled by several hydrological, metrological and physical parameter of the flooded area. The observation of several parameters like rainfall, river flow, geotechnical feature and other meteorological feature of the basin area. Bangladesh, situated at the most downstream region of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin which only 7% are exist in Bangladesh rest 93% (JRCB, 2016) are outside the country, this complicated geopolitical basin location are create the problem of flood observation and prediction which final product of early-warning (Hossain & Katiyar, 2006; BWDB, 2011). The characteristics of peak discharge are depending on the basin characteristics also the precipitation pattern are highly influenced by their characteristics. A time lag between rainfall and the streamflow are depending on the size and shape of basin, floods can be forecast at a point downstream of a large basin if the river flow at some point upstream is known in conjunction with a hydrologic model. Solution the 8|Page
problem of transboundary river and rainfall data there needed a political commitment and the solution of down and upstream country of the same basin. Another solution of this problem of satellite data. The discharge of different basins is rise in different times like the Brahmaputra River starts rising in March due to snow melt in the Himalayas while the Ganges discharge begins to rise in early June with the onset of the monsoon. Monsoon rainfall occurs in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins earlier than the Ganges basin due to the pattern of progression of the monsoon air mass
Figure -4 Exist Flood Early Warning Model 2006
(Mirza, 2002; BWDB, 2014). The flood peak of different basin occurs in different time in a season, the he Brahmaputra River occur in July and August, while the peaks in the Ganges occur in August and September (Mirza, 2002; BWDB, 2014). The time of peak discharge is an important factor for occurrence the flood. In 1998, the peak discharges in the Brahmaputra and Ganges occurred only 2 days apart (Hossain, 2003; Mirza, 2002). As a result, the entire central region of Bangladesh near the confluence point of the two rivers suffered an unprecedented flood. A similar simultaneous occurrence of peak flows of the two rivers also occurred in 1988 that also caused a devastating flood (BWDB, 2011; Mirza, 2002).
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In Bangladesh prediction of water level is the main interest of flood management. The physical processes involve in generation of discharge from the precipitation which ultimately influence the water levels in a river system are highly complex, nonlinear and uncertain. The FFWC under BWDB are taken the responsibility of the flood observation, prediction, early warning and dissemination. After 1972 formation of FFWC there are several changes of methods and technology of flood observation and prediction. The station based manually collected data and observed are the starting method of FFWC of Flood forecasting. In 1992 the FFWC adopted MIKE11-F model for flood forecasting with one-day lead time which was replaced by MIKE11 Super Model with GIS in 1995-96 which given Two-day lead time forecast. Through different development process the FFWS has been massive developed form 2012-14 when the lead time increased 5 days and lead time extend 10 days using PFF (Probabilistic Flood Forecasting) also adopt IVR system and improve in LAN and display (BWDB, 2014). In 2014 FF at 9 locations with lead time upto 8 days Using free satellite (JASON - 2 of NASA) water elevation data, on pilot basis in Ganges and Brahmaputra Basins in the north, north-west and central part (BWDB, 2014; USAID, 2008; Hossain, et al., 2014). Hydrological data is received from the field networks of BWDB. From April to September, water level data is collected five times daily from 86 stations, while rainfall information is collected once a day. Data is also collected from the automatic telemetry system operating in four stations around the capital city of Dhaka. Limited data on water level and rainfall forecasts are received from Indian stations through the telepointer link of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Estimates of the rise/fall of river water levels and rainfall in the catchments beyond the national boundaries are inputs for computer models. To estimate the rainfall situation, imagery from the NOAA satellite at FFWC, and from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) at SPARRSO are collected and used along with water level forecast and surface charts with pressure isocline from BMD. The collected data are fed into the computer database and checked. The trend of the hydrograph extrapolated up to the period of forecast from the levels of the previous few days, the response characteristics of the rivers, the effect of rainfall on water level,
Figure--5 Flood Forecasting Dissemination System in Bangladesh
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and the data related to water level and forecast received from India are all considered as the basis for the preparation of flood forecasts. Output /Prediction. After preparation, the model is run for 30 to 40 minutes to calculate the forecasts. These forecasts are used in flood bulletins and for the preparation of flood warning messages. During the monsoon period, FFWC runs daily flood bulletins, special as well as monthly and annual flood reports, and conducts flood mapping. During the dry period, it conducts weekly and regional flood monitoring, and produces out a dry season bulletin. Figure-5shows the outputs of FFWC. 4.2. Early Warning and Dissemination
The flood forecast bulletins is prepared upto 5 days for important locations and region-wise flood warning messages. The bulletins are disseminated to more than 600 recipients including different ministries, offices (central & district level), individuals, print & electronic news media, development partners, research organizations, NGO’s etc. including President’s & Prime Minister’s Secretariat. Whenever, the forecast river stage crosses the DL, the concern field offices and limited key officials are informed through mobile SMS. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) through mobile has been initiated since July 2011 through Teletalk and from 2013 all the mobile operators started the IVR. Figure 2.7 shows the dissemination flow from FFWC and Table 2.4 shows the product dissemination routes. Email and Internet
routes
have
been
developed in the Consolidation and
Strengthening
of
Flood
Forecast and Warning Services (CSFFWS) project, and are taking over
somewhat
from
the
Figure -6: The Station Based Water Level Data and forecast Dhaleswari River at Elasinghat
traditional methods of hard copy and fax. Both mediums lend themselves to mass distribution of warning messages and, hence, are very cost effective.
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The FFWS has been an active LAN services where any one can browse and find the bulletin and warning information. Where several types of information are found among them the flood bulletin are found in monsoon season May to October. The bulletin and forecasting are station based where are provide the station information where are present the present water level also shows the Danger Level(DL) and Recorded Height Water Level(RHWL). Figure 6 shows an 8 days forecast/early warning in a Elasinghat point at Dhaleswari River. FFWC also provide the inundation map during the monsoon period which also shows the overall country inundation level and that only shows only the inundation parameter.
5. Impact Analysis Naturally Bangladesh is the home of natural disaster and its impact of natural disaster are very high. With the large scale threat of natural disaster, the climate change increased the impact of this natural disaster geometrically. Approximately 75% of total population are lives in the flood hazard prone area and most of this people are dependents on agricultural for their livelihood (Brouwer, et al., 2007). The socioeconomic activity and the underline vulnerability are driving a crucial role in flood damage and loss. About 15.5% of our total GDP are came from the agricultural sector and most of livelihood are run by the agricultural sector in rural area(WB). These economic settings are make more vulnerable to the flood. In Rural are where proper sanitation and other utility services are not available ant this community are vulnerable community in flood hazard. Thus the post flood impacts are more severe than the during the flood.
The 1988, 1998, 2004 are
catastrophic flooding years which inundate almost 60% of total country duration nearly 3 months (Brouwer, et al., 2007). The increased volume of rainfall caused by climate change during the past decades has intensified the flood problem in this part of the world. The population expected to be hardest hit by flood disaster is the poor people who lack adequate means to take protective measures and who also have very little capacity to cope with the loss of property and income (IPCC, 2001). Bangladesh experience flood almost every year with considerable damage among them 1954, 1955, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 all caused enormous damages to properties and considerable loss of life (BWDB, 2014). The floods 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 caused heavy damages (BWDB, 2014; Mirza, 2002). The 1987 flood completely or partially damaged 2.06 million houses (Mirza, 2002) and Paddy crop (Aman1) was severely damaged (losses 1
Aman = Local Rice Varity
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estimated at 0.8 million tons): more than 24 million people were homeless and starving (Mallick, et al., 2005). The 1988 in 1988 was more devastating than that of 1987: two-thirds of the country were submerged, directly affecting 45 million people in 40 of 64 districts. Over 2.5 million people in Dhaka were left stranded during the flood, living for weeks with inadequate food, drinking water, sanitation, shelter and healthcare and 12.8 million households are destroyed (Mirza, 2002; Mallick, et al., 2005). The flood of 1998 is considered as one of the longest and worst natural disasters ever experienced in Bangladesh, lasting a total of 65 days from early July to mid-September. Over 67 per cent of the landmass was flooded, displacing over 1 million people, damaging 16,000 km of roads and 4,500 km of embankment, and destroying 500,000 ha of cropland. An estimated 2.4 million houses were completely or partially destroyed (Mallick, et al., 2005; Mirza, 2002). Among these, the 1998 flood damage was the worst in history, totaling in the range of US$ 2–2.8 billion (Mirza, 2002). During the period 1954– 1999, floods killed 11,571 people in Bangladesh, of which 7109 people were killed during the floods of1987, and 1988 (Mirza, 2002; Hossain & Katiyar, 2006). The flood 2004 and 2007 cover 55,000 and 62,000 sq.-km which are 38% and 42% of area of the country and taken a large scale damage Figure -1.
Figure -7: Rate of Illness Among 46.470 Person During Flood 1988 Bangladesh (Siddique, et al.,
Figure- -8 Causes of death among 154 persons of all ages in Bhuapur Upazila During the flood 1998 (Siddique, et al., 1991)
1991)
A post disaster scenario 1988 flood in Bangladesh are shown that the most of the people are affected by the diarrhoea also other water born and skin disease are spread out break (Siddique, et al., 1991). The rate of illness among 464700 people around Bangladesh diarrhoea was 34.7% most of the watery diarrhoea which was the secondary impact of flood hazard. The other diseases are 13 | P a g e
also negligible most of them are infectious and skin disease which was controlled by the flood (Siddique, et al., 1991). The 154 death reported during flood period (between 28 August and 26 October 1998) of severe flood affected upazila Bhuapur upazila under Tangail District 60 mill northeast from capital Dhaka and stand eastern bank of the Jamuna (Siddique, et al., 1991).
6. Policy Massage and Recommendation Bangladesh is fast growing developing country. Last two decades there are several policies, institution, and low has been developed for disaster management. Due to the climate change last three decades the frequency, intensity of flood is increased and create more damage. Bangladesh GoB invest a larger amount of budget for flood management. Without proper implementation lack of resource, the flood management system doesn’t work properly. Some recommendation are done here
Market based flood management
Increased institutional capacities
Adopt the permanent solution
Changes the policy that the insurance policy can be developed.
Active involvement of the community
Strengthening the local government
There have been documented adaptations in markets such as insurance and reinsurance, coastal planning, health interventions, built environment, water resources, and adjustments and adaptations within resource-based livelihoods. The present process of national-level planning for adaptation by developed and developing countries represents a major resource effort in anticipatory planning and provides a first guide to its potential sustainability.
7. Conclusion The flood problem in Bangladesh is extremely complex. The country is an active delta; it has numerous networks of rivers, canals and coast creeks with extensive flood plains through which surface water of about 1.7 million sq-km drains annually. Floods are normal monsoon phenomena in the deltaic plains of Bangladesh. Although the livelihood of the people in Bangladesh is well adapted to normal monsoon flood, the damages due to inundation, riverbank erosion or breach of embankment, etc. still occur in various regions in almost every monsoon. They often have 14 | P a g e
disastrous consequences: major damage to infrastructure, great loss of property, crops, cattle, poultry etc., human suffering and impoverishment of the poor. With every major flood in Bangladesh, food security and poverty situation adversely affected. The characteristic of rivers varies from region to region. FFWC, BWDB monitored the flood situation during the monsoon and also beyond the monsoon if situation demand. The FFWC has issued daily flood bulletin from May to October with a forecast lead-time of 24hrs, 48hrs and 72hrs, 96 hrs. and 120 hrs. (upto 5 days) along with warning messages and flood inundation maps. Mobile based IVR system improved dissemination significantly. Also 16 new flood forecasting points has been added in the system. These are the new efforts to make more localized flood forecast. In addition to deterministic flood forecasts upto 5-days lead time, FFWC issued medium range upto 10-days lead-time probabilistic forecasts at 38 locations. FFWC has attempted to use satellite based (Jason-2 Satellite Altimeter Data under SERVIR programme of NASA) information of the upper catchment with free download facility for extending the flood forecast lead time upto 8 days. In this study was done for the analysis the flood forecasting, management. The climate change and extreme climatic impacts are increased in the recent years. The flood in Bangladesh is common but the secondary data are shown that the flood forecasting is well developed but problems are information dissemination and communication. The community doesn’t involve the dissection making and warning system of the flood. The community based early warning system has been developed.
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8. References Adgr, W. N., Arnell, N. W. & Tompkins, E. L., 2005. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, Volume 15, pp. 77-86. Ahmad, S. & Simonovic, S. P., 2000. System Dynamics Modeling of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 14(3), pp. 190-198. Biswas, R. K., 2011. Application of Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) For Water Levels Prediction in The Surma River of Bangladesh. Dhaka, 3rd International Conference on Water & Flood Management (ICWFM-2011). Brouwer, R., Akter, S., Brander, L. & Haque, E., 2007. Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in Bangladesh. Risk Analysis, 27(2), pp. 313-326. BWDB, 2011. Bangladesher Nod Nodi, Dhaka: Bangladesh Water Development Board. BWDB, 2014. Annual Flood Report 2013, Dhaka: Bangladesh Water Development Board. Haskoning, R., 2003. Controlling or Living With Floods in Bangladesh: Toward an Interdiciplinary and Integrated Approach to Agricultural Drainage, Washington: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank). Hofer, T. & Messerli, B., 2006. Floods in Bangladesh: History, Dynamics and Rethinking the Role of the Himalayas. 2nd ed. Tokyo: United Nations University Press. Hossain, A. A., 2003. Climate Forecast Application in Bangladesh for Water Related Disaster Mitigation. s.l., International Conference on Total Disaster Risk Management . Hossain, F. & Katiyar, N., 2006. Improving Flood Forecasting in International River Basins. EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 87(5), pp. 49-60. Hossain, F. et al., 2014. Proof of Concept of an Altimeter-Based River Forecasting System for Transboundary Flow Inside Bangladesh. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, IEEE, 7(2), pp. 587-601. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers, Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(Working Group II). JRCB, 2016. Joint Rivers Commission Bangladesh. [Online] Available at: http://www.jrcb.gov.bd/basin_map.html [Accessed 14 12 2016]. Krause, P., Boyle, D. P. & Base, F., 2005. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geosciences, Issue 5, pp. 89-97. Mallick, D. L. et al., 2005. Vulnerability, Adaptation and Climate Disasters. In: Floods in Bangladesh: A Shift from Disaster Management Towards Disaster Preparedness. s.l.: Institute of Development Studies, pp. 53-70. Mirza, M. Q., 2002. Global warming and changes in the probability ofoccurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Global Environmental Change, Volume 12, pp. 127-138. Mirza, M. Q., 2011. Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications. Regional Environmental Change , Volume 11, pp. 95-107. Romanowicz, R. & Beven, K., 1998. Dynamic real-time prediction of flood inundation probabilities. Hydrotogical Scienc, 43(2), pp. 181-196.
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Samues, P., Klijn, F. & Dijkman, J., 2006. An Analysis of the Current Practice of Policies On River Flood Risk Management in Different Countries. Irrigation and Drainage, Volume 55, pp. 141-150. Siddique, A. K., Baqui, A. H., Eusof, A. & Zaman, K., 1991. 1988 Flood in Bangladesh: Pattern if Illness and causes of Death. Journal of Diarrhoeal Disease Reserch, 9(4), pp. 310-314.
Annex
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