FOCUS 3: UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...

2013 IOE SUMMIT – HELENA, MT

FOCUS 3: UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH ECOSYSTEM MODELING AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Andy Hansen Montana State University

Steve Running University of Montana

NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

EPSCOR SCIENCE

Focus 2:

LA Y NC E

FOCUS 2 PROJECT SYNTHESIS: Linking microbial processes to ecological patterns

FOCUS 2

AC ICA Y L

E BA NERG

LO GIC LE

ms ys te os Ec nd sa cie ga Le al gic

H CYCYDRO

ts en

Forest and Hydrology Linkages Aquatic and Terrestrial Linkages

sm

olo

FOCUS 3

es ss ya ilit

Ec

FOCUS 1

ilit ya era b uln dv an ns ec SYN os ys THE tem S I sim S: ula tio in

es

ce ss

VULNERABILITY

b era uln

pro

MICROBIAL DYNAMICS

ov int

ls de

Mo

Large River Floodplain Integrity Anthropology/SES and Floodplain Integrity

FOCUS 1 PROJECT


ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES

ion

cro bia l

: izat SIS an HE org NT pe SY sca d lan

of

tem

mi

ge

ys

Microbial Contributions to C/N

LANDSCAPE PATTERNS

ed

INTEGRATION

s co

ing

wl

no

State Climate Scenarios and Datasets

l- E

rat

dk

Climate Change/Adaptation Partnerships

bia

eg

CLIMATE

an

SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS INITIATIVE

cro

Int

ls de mo

Integrated Resource Vulnerability Assessments

Statewide Ecosystem Simulations

Microbial Communities and Restoration

Understanding impacts of climate-change through ecosystem modeling and vulnerability Original science figure

LiDAR: Lake Ecosystems

Microbes and Forest Health

Linking changes in landscape pattern to ecosystem process

ing

FOCUS 3 PROJECT

Examining feedbacks between microbial metabolism and ecosystem processes

rat eg

ss es sm en ts

Focus 3:

Mi

Focus 1:

Int

1) Develop the conceptual approaches, quan4ta4ve tools, and science and management teams to assess the vulnerability under future climate and land use change of: •  ecosystem processes •  vegeta4on composi4on •  vegeta4on phenology 2) Explore the resiliency and adap4ve capacity of these ecosystem proper4es under alterna4ve climate adapta4on strategies.

STAKEHOLDERS:

Montana’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Report and Science Portal

E LEGCOLOG

Goals:

SCIENCE COLLABORATORS MSU Hansen Lab

UM Running Lab

Whitlock Lab & IoE

Helen Naughton

Nate Piekielek, Linda Phillips, Jared Oyler, Ashley Ballantyne, Tony Chang, Regan Nelson, Erica Kelsey Jencso, Michael Sweet GarrouMe, Ka4e Ireland Todd Kipfer, Virginia Ignalis

Liz Shanahan

Hansen Lab, MSU Tom Olliff, NPS / Great Northern LCC John Gross, Bill Monihan, NPS I&M Dave Theobald, Conserva4on Science Partners Forest Melton, NASA Ames ScoM Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center


Jeff MoriseMe, Dennis Ojima, NCCSC Hansen Lab, Whitlock Lab MSU Running Lab, UM Barry Noon, Susan Skagan, Colorado State University and USGS Bill Lauenroth Lab, University of Wyoming Diane Debinski Lab, Iowa State University

AGENCY COLLABORATORS •  •  •  • 

•  •  • 

Western US Great Northern LCC, Tom Olliff NPS I&M Greater Yellowstone Network, Kristen Legg NPS I&M Rocky Mountain Network, Mike BriMen Greater Yellowstone Coordina4ng CommiMee Whitebark Pine SubcommiMee, Karl Buermeyer and Virginia Kelly Grand Teton Na4onal Park, Kelly McClosky Yellowstone Na4onal Park, Ann Rodmann Rocky Mountain Na4onal Park, Ben Bobowski


•  •  •  •  •  • 

Eastern US NPS I&M Appalachian Highlands Network, Robert EmmoM NPS I&M Eastern Rivers and Mountains Network, MaM Marshall NPS I&M Mid-‐Atlan4c Network, Jim Comiskey Delaware Water Gap Na4onal Recrea4onal Area, Richard Evans and Leslie Morelock Great Smoky Mountains Na4onal Park, Jim Renfro Shenandoah Na4onal Park, Jim Schaberl

LANDSCAPE-SCALE 1948-2012 CLIMATE DATASETS FOR MONTANA Jared Oyler, Steve Running Ashley Ballantyne, Kelsey Jencso, Michael Sweet University of Montana

Objec4ve

Produce a topographically-‐informed spa4al climate dataset of Tmin, Tmax, Prcp, Srad, and Humidity •  1948 – present, daily 4mestep, 30-‐arcsec resolu4on (~800m) •  Supports historical analyses and opera4onal products •  Accounts for eleva4on, terrain posi4on, water bodies, land cover


See Oyler et al. poster

LANDSCAPE-SCALE 1948-2012 CLIMATE DATASETS FOR MONTANA Summary and Future Work

TopoWx data will be used to greatly improve ecologic/hydrologic remote sensing products for the state.


• TopoWx is a sta4s4cal framework for genera4ng landscape-‐scale climate data in support of ecosystem research and resource management. • TopoWx advantages over similar products: incorpora4on of remote sensing data to beMer quan4fy landscape-‐scale temperature paMerns, homogeniza4on of sta4on records, and quan4fica4on of uncertainty. • TopoWx has already been used within the state in support of climate impact studies on snowshoe hares, moose, and aqua4c species. • TopoWx will be extended to es4mate humidity and solar radia4on so MODIS remote sensing models are more applicable to single watersheds. • TopoWx is fully open for future community-‐driven improvements.

Adaptation Planning Approach


Link with Collaborators and Assess Needs Organization Greater Yellowstone Coord Comm Whitebark Pine Subcomm. Grand Teton NP

Rocky Mountain NP

Yellowstone NP

Great Smoky Mt NP Shenandoah NP App. Highlands I&M Delaware Watergap

Key Collaborators Virginia Kelly, Karl Buermeyer, Dan Reinhart, Nancy Bokino, Kristin Legg Sue Consolo Murphy, Dave Hallac, Virginia Kelly, Kristen Legg, Kelly McClosky, Kathy Mellander, Dan Reinhart Ben Bobowski, Judy Visty, Jeff Connor, John Mack, Larry Gamble, Jim Cheatham, Mary-Kay Watry, Nate Williamson Dave Hallac, Ann Rodman, P.J. White, Roy Renkin,

Date

April 2012 Effectiveness of “GYCC WBP Strategy” under March 2013 future climate Aug 2013 July 2012 Multiple May 2013 Nov 2012

Climate, land use, ecosystem interactions Limber pine Collaborative management among agencies

July 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013

Whitebark pine – grizzly bears Grassland phenology YNP climate change program direction: Monitoring, Vulnerable resources, Management options Vegetation comm (6 across elevation range) PACE methods Land use legacy in parks Hemlock vegetation community Land use / hydrology

Jim Renfro, Jeff Troutman, Tom Remaley, Jim Schaberl, Paul Super, Jeb Wofford

Nov 2012

Rich Evans, Mathew Marshall, Leslie Moorlock

Nov 2012


Needs We Can Address

Assess Vulnerability Exposure

Sensi3vity

Poten3al Impact

Adap3ve Capacity Vulnerability

Exposure = magnitude & extent of change experienced Sensitivity = degree to which fitness/process is affected Adaptive capacity = coping responses of species/process


Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Key Climate PaMerns and Ecological Consequences: GYE PACE Temperature Anomaly (1900-‐2100)

1900-‐2010: 800-‐m PRISM 2010-‐2100: CMIP5 Ensemble Average, RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.5


Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Great Northern LCC - Projected Biome Shift Current

Winner

2090

Losers

GYE PACE

Data from Rehfeldt et al. 2012


Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100 Goal: Illustrate the initial steps in an assessment of vulnerability to land use and climate change for the network of US National Parks Objectives: 1. Define the surrounding Protected Area Centered Ecosystem (PACE). 2. Quantify past exposure. 3. Quantify potential future exposure and potential impact. 4. Consider implications for management.

Hansen…Running. In Press. Ecol Apps.


Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability 1900-2000

Hansen…Running. In Press. Ecol Apps.


Temperature Change (deg C / 100 yrs) 7.00

0.00 EVER BITH SLBE BLRI GUMO NERI BISO GRSM MOJA GRSA SACN WHSA JOTR OLYM BIBE SHEN BUFF OZAR ORPI VOYA PIRO ELMA POGO BICA SAMO REDW CACH GRBA DEWA MORA DINO ARCH PEFO YELL GLAC CRMO SAGU LARO NOCA ROMO CRLA THRO LAVO MNRR BADL YOSE DEVA CORI† ZION

Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability 2000-2100

1895-‐2007

PACE

NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3) Hansen…Running. In Press. Ecol Apps.

6.00 2000-‐2090

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting




CMIP5 RCP 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 800 m



New Science on Vulnerability Glacier PACE 2006 - 2100

Ensemble Average: Summer Soil Water

Snow-‐water Equivalent

Runoff


Gross Primary Produc4vity

New Science on Vulnerability Whitebark Pine in GYE •  •  •  • 

•  •  • 

Mortality of WBP in GYE in 2009. McFarlane et al. 2013

Overview Keystone species High adult mortality Listed as candidate species Grizzly bear relisted

Management Ques4ons Range change under future climate? Seqngs allowing reproduc4on? Where to focus treatment of compe4tors, transloca4on?


Key Collaborators GYCC WBP Subcommittee

New Science on Vulnerability


See Chang et al. poster

New Science on Vulnerability


See Piekielek poster See GarrouMe poster

Assess Vulnerability Via Expert Panels An expert panel will use the synthesis of current studies and new science as a basis for ranking vulnerability of key ecological processes and vegeta4on communi4es in early 2014 Ecological hindcas4ng and forecas4ng

Expert panel


Climate Adaptation Management We will work with agency collaborators to develop, evaluate, and implement management strategies for vulnerable elements.


Develop Implementable Management Strategies

Climate Adaptation Management: Example See Hansen et al. poster

Goal: Evaluate potential success of WBP Strategy under future climate.

Challenge: Agencies / land allocation types differ in tolerance to management. Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Agency/Alloca4on

Legal Direc4on/Mgt Philosophy

Na4onal Forests

•  • 

NF – Wilderness Area

Mul*ple use Ecological integrity

Most ac*ons prohibited or discouraged

NF – Inventoried Roadless Areas

Ac*ons less restricted but remoteness an issue

Yellowstone Na4onal Park

Park Service Policy:

Grand Teton Na4onal Park


“Take no ac*on that would diminish the wilderness eligibility of an area” AND/BUT “Management ac*ons…should be aOempted only when knowledge and tools exist to accomplish clearly ar*culated goals.”

WBP Restora4on Tools allowed or % WBP likely All •  •  •  •  •  • 

Plan*ng seedlings/sowing seeds Pruning Wildland and prescribed fire use Targeted fire suppression Mechanical thinning Research/Monitoring

•  • 

Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring

54%

•  •  •  • 

Plan*ng seedlings/sowing seeds Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring Mechanical thinning (but requires USDA Secretarial approval)

27%

•  • 

Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring

10%

•  •  •  • 

Plan*ng seedlings/sowing seeds Pruning Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring

Regan Nelson

5%

3%

Design and Deliver Adaptation Strategies

Approach: Simulate poten4al outcomes of alterna4ve management op4ons: •  Evaluate current WBP Strategy against forecasts. •  Create two addi4onal op4ons that require new agency tolerances.


Potential Activities for 2013- 2014 Decision Support Activities

Science Activities •  Extend TopoWx to es4mate humidity and solar radia4on so MODIS remote sensing models are more applicable to single watersheds. •  Sta4s4cal distribu4on modeling of 5 addi4onal vegeta4on types; •  Complete GYE phenology studies; •  Develop, validate, apply LPG-‐GUESS as dynamic vegeta4on simulator for regional scale applica4ons (with Ben Poulter, Ka4e Ireland, Steve Running); •  Convene a vegeta4on modeling workshop (Sept 21, MSU); •  Conduct studies of ecological response to drought across Montana and the NC CSC domain; •  Prepare proposal to NASA for US/Canada Rockies and interna4onal vulnerability assessments of protected areas.


•  Convene expert panel for vulnerability assessment; •  Co-‐host a symposium of conifer forest response to climate change; •  Prepare results as NPS resource briefs; •  Highlight resource briefs as webinars; •  Document methods as NPS Standard Opera4ng Procedures •  Con4nue to publish policy reports such as: Olliff et al. In Prep. Responding to climate change in the NPS Intermountain Region: A Guide to Developing Park-‐based Adapta4on Strategies. Natural Resource Report NPS/IMRO.

Acknowledgements NSF EPSCoR Track-‐I EPS-‐1101342 (INSTEP 3) NASA Applied Sciences Program (Grant 10-‐BIOCLIM10-‐0034) NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program North Central Climate Sciences Center
