FOCUS. 2. FOCUS 3. M. L. E. Original science figure. SYNTHESIS: Integrating
models and knowledge of landscape organization into vulnerability assessments.
2013 IOE SUMMIT – HELENA, MT
FOCUS 3: UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH ECOSYSTEM MODELING AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Andy Hansen Montana State University
Steve Running University of Montana
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
EPSCOR SCIENCE
Focus 2:
LA Y NC E
FOCUS 2 PROJECT SYNTHESIS: Linking microbial processes to ecological patterns
FOCUS 2
AC ICA Y L
E BA NERG
LO GIC LE
ms ys te os Ec nd sa cie ga Le al gic
H CYCYDRO
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Forest and Hydrology Linkages Aquatic and Terrestrial Linkages
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FOCUS 3
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FOCUS 1
ilit ya era b uln dv an ns ec SYN os ys THE tem S I sim S: ula tio in
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VULNERABILITY
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MICROBIAL DYNAMICS
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Large River Floodplain Integrity Anthropology/SES and Floodplain Integrity
FOCUS 1 PROJECT
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES
ion
cro bia l
: izat SIS an HE org NT pe SY sca d lan
of
tem
mi
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ys
Microbial Contributions to C/N
LANDSCAPE PATTERNS
ed
INTEGRATION
s co
ing
wl
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State Climate Scenarios and Datasets
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Climate Change/Adaptation Partnerships
bia
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CLIMATE
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SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS INITIATIVE
cro
Int
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Integrated Resource Vulnerability Assessments
Statewide Ecosystem Simulations
Microbial Communities and Restoration
Understanding impacts of climate-change through ecosystem modeling and vulnerability Original science figure
LiDAR: Lake Ecosystems
Microbes and Forest Health
Linking changes in landscape pattern to ecosystem process
ing
FOCUS 3 PROJECT
Examining feedbacks between microbial metabolism and ecosystem processes
rat eg
ss es sm en ts
Focus 3:
Mi
Focus 1:
Int
1) Develop the conceptual approaches, quan4ta4ve tools, and science and management teams to assess the vulnerability under future climate and land use change of: • ecosystem processes • vegeta4on composi4on • vegeta4on phenology 2) Explore the resiliency and adap4ve capacity of these ecosystem proper4es under alterna4ve climate adapta4on strategies.
STAKEHOLDERS:
Montana’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Report and Science Portal
E LEGCOLOG
Goals:
SCIENCE COLLABORATORS MSU Hansen Lab
UM Running Lab
Whitlock Lab & IoE
Helen Naughton
Nate Piekielek, Linda Phillips, Jared Oyler, Ashley Ballantyne, Tony Chang, Regan Nelson, Erica Kelsey Jencso, Michael Sweet GarrouMe, Ka4e Ireland Todd Kipfer, Virginia Ignalis
Liz Shanahan
Hansen Lab, MSU Tom Olliff, NPS / Great Northern LCC John Gross, Bill Monihan, NPS I&M Dave Theobald, Conserva4on Science Partners Forest Melton, NASA Ames ScoM Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Jeff MoriseMe, Dennis Ojima, NCCSC Hansen Lab, Whitlock Lab MSU Running Lab, UM Barry Noon, Susan Skagan, Colorado State University and USGS Bill Lauenroth Lab, University of Wyoming Diane Debinski Lab, Iowa State University
AGENCY COLLABORATORS • • • •
• • •
Western US Great Northern LCC, Tom Olliff NPS I&M Greater Yellowstone Network, Kristen Legg NPS I&M Rocky Mountain Network, Mike BriMen Greater Yellowstone Coordina4ng CommiMee Whitebark Pine SubcommiMee, Karl Buermeyer and Virginia Kelly Grand Teton Na4onal Park, Kelly McClosky Yellowstone Na4onal Park, Ann Rodmann Rocky Mountain Na4onal Park, Ben Bobowski
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
• • • • • •
Eastern US NPS I&M Appalachian Highlands Network, Robert EmmoM NPS I&M Eastern Rivers and Mountains Network, MaM Marshall NPS I&M Mid-‐Atlan4c Network, Jim Comiskey Delaware Water Gap Na4onal Recrea4onal Area, Richard Evans and Leslie Morelock Great Smoky Mountains Na4onal Park, Jim Renfro Shenandoah Na4onal Park, Jim Schaberl
LANDSCAPE-SCALE 1948-2012 CLIMATE DATASETS FOR MONTANA Jared Oyler, Steve Running Ashley Ballantyne, Kelsey Jencso, Michael Sweet University of Montana
Objec4ve
Produce a topographically-‐informed spa4al climate dataset of Tmin, Tmax, Prcp, Srad, and Humidity • 1948 – present, daily 4mestep, 30-‐arcsec resolu4on (~800m) • Supports historical analyses and opera4onal products • Accounts for eleva4on, terrain posi4on, water bodies, land cover
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
See Oyler et al. poster
LANDSCAPE-SCALE 1948-2012 CLIMATE DATASETS FOR MONTANA Summary and Future Work
TopoWx data will be used to greatly improve ecologic/hydrologic remote sensing products for the state.
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
• TopoWx is a sta4s4cal framework for genera4ng landscape-‐scale climate data in support of ecosystem research and resource management. • TopoWx advantages over similar products: incorpora4on of remote sensing data to beMer quan4fy landscape-‐scale temperature paMerns, homogeniza4on of sta4on records, and quan4fica4on of uncertainty. • TopoWx has already been used within the state in support of climate impact studies on snowshoe hares, moose, and aqua4c species. • TopoWx will be extended to es4mate humidity and solar radia4on so MODIS remote sensing models are more applicable to single watersheds. • TopoWx is fully open for future community-‐driven improvements.
Adaptation Planning Approach
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Link with Collaborators and Assess Needs Organization Greater Yellowstone Coord Comm Whitebark Pine Subcomm. Grand Teton NP
Rocky Mountain NP
Yellowstone NP
Great Smoky Mt NP Shenandoah NP App. Highlands I&M Delaware Watergap
Key Collaborators Virginia Kelly, Karl Buermeyer, Dan Reinhart, Nancy Bokino, Kristin Legg Sue Consolo Murphy, Dave Hallac, Virginia Kelly, Kristen Legg, Kelly McClosky, Kathy Mellander, Dan Reinhart Ben Bobowski, Judy Visty, Jeff Connor, John Mack, Larry Gamble, Jim Cheatham, Mary-Kay Watry, Nate Williamson Dave Hallac, Ann Rodman, P.J. White, Roy Renkin,
Date
April 2012 Effectiveness of “GYCC WBP Strategy” under March 2013 future climate Aug 2013 July 2012 Multiple May 2013 Nov 2012
Climate, land use, ecosystem interactions Limber pine Collaborative management among agencies
July 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013
Whitebark pine – grizzly bears Grassland phenology YNP climate change program direction: Monitoring, Vulnerable resources, Management options Vegetation comm (6 across elevation range) PACE methods Land use legacy in parks Hemlock vegetation community Land use / hydrology
Jim Renfro, Jeff Troutman, Tom Remaley, Jim Schaberl, Paul Super, Jeb Wofford
Nov 2012
Rich Evans, Mathew Marshall, Leslie Moorlock
Nov 2012
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Needs We Can Address
Assess Vulnerability Exposure
Sensi3vity
Poten3al Impact
Adap3ve Capacity Vulnerability
Exposure = magnitude & extent of change experienced Sensitivity = degree to which fitness/process is affected Adaptive capacity = coping responses of species/process
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Key Climate PaMerns and Ecological Consequences: GYE PACE Temperature Anomaly (1900-‐2100)
1900-‐2010: 800-‐m PRISM 2010-‐2100: CMIP5 Ensemble Average, RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.5
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Great Northern LCC - Projected Biome Shift Current
Winner
2090
Losers
GYE PACE
Data from Rehfeldt et al. 2012
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100 Goal: Illustrate the initial steps in an assessment of vulnerability to land use and climate change for the network of US National Parks Objectives: 1. Define the surrounding Protected Area Centered Ecosystem (PACE). 2. Quantify past exposure. 3. Quantify potential future exposure and potential impact. 4. Consider implications for management.
Hansen…Running. In Press. Ecol Apps.
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability 1900-2000
Hansen…Running. In Press. Ecol Apps.
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Temperature Change (deg C / 100 yrs) 7.00
0.00 EVER BITH SLBE BLRI GUMO NERI BISO GRSM MOJA GRSA SACN WHSA JOTR OLYM BIBE SHEN BUFF OZAR ORPI VOYA PIRO ELMA POGO BICA SAMO REDW CACH GRBA DEWA MORA DINO ARCH PEFO YELL GLAC CRMO SAGU LARO NOCA ROMO CRLA THRO LAVO MNRR BADL YOSE DEVA CORI† ZION
Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability 2000-2100
1895-‐2007
PACE
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3) Hansen…Running. In Press. Ecol Apps.
6.00 2000-‐2090
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
CMIP5 RCP 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 800 m
New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
New Science on Vulnerability Glacier PACE 2006 - 2100
Ensemble Average: Summer Soil Water
Snow-‐water Equivalent
Runoff
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Gross Primary Produc4vity
New Science on Vulnerability Whitebark Pine in GYE • • • •
• • •
Mortality of WBP in GYE in 2009. McFarlane et al. 2013
Overview Keystone species High adult mortality Listed as candidate species Grizzly bear relisted
Management Ques4ons Range change under future climate? Seqngs allowing reproduc4on? Where to focus treatment of compe4tors, transloca4on?
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Key Collaborators GYCC WBP Subcommittee
New Science on Vulnerability
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
See Chang et al. poster
New Science on Vulnerability
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
See Piekielek poster See GarrouMe poster
Assess Vulnerability Via Expert Panels An expert panel will use the synthesis of current studies and new science as a basis for ranking vulnerability of key ecological processes and vegeta4on communi4es in early 2014 Ecological hindcas4ng and forecas4ng
Expert panel
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Climate Adaptation Management We will work with agency collaborators to develop, evaluate, and implement management strategies for vulnerable elements.
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Develop Implementable Management Strategies
Climate Adaptation Management: Example See Hansen et al. poster
Goal: Evaluate potential success of WBP Strategy under future climate.
Challenge: Agencies / land allocation types differ in tolerance to management. Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Agency/Alloca4on
Legal Direc4on/Mgt Philosophy
Na4onal Forests
• •
NF – Wilderness Area
Mul*ple use Ecological integrity
Most ac*ons prohibited or discouraged
NF – Inventoried Roadless Areas
Ac*ons less restricted but remoteness an issue
Yellowstone Na4onal Park
Park Service Policy:
Grand Teton Na4onal Park
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
“Take no ac*on that would diminish the wilderness eligibility of an area” AND/BUT “Management ac*ons…should be aOempted only when knowledge and tools exist to accomplish clearly ar*culated goals.”
WBP Restora4on Tools allowed or % WBP likely All • • • • • •
Plan*ng seedlings/sowing seeds Pruning Wildland and prescribed fire use Targeted fire suppression Mechanical thinning Research/Monitoring
• •
Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring
54%
• • • •
Plan*ng seedlings/sowing seeds Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring Mechanical thinning (but requires USDA Secretarial approval)
27%
• •
Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring
10%
• • • •
Plan*ng seedlings/sowing seeds Pruning Wildland fire use Research/Monitoring
Regan Nelson
5%
3%
Design and Deliver Adaptation Strategies
Approach: Simulate poten4al outcomes of alterna4ve management op4ons: • Evaluate current WBP Strategy against forecasts. • Create two addi4onal op4ons that require new agency tolerances.
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
Potential Activities for 2013- 2014 Decision Support Activities
Science Activities • Extend TopoWx to es4mate humidity and solar radia4on so MODIS remote sensing models are more applicable to single watersheds. • Sta4s4cal distribu4on modeling of 5 addi4onal vegeta4on types; • Complete GYE phenology studies; • Develop, validate, apply LPG-‐GUESS as dynamic vegeta4on simulator for regional scale applica4ons (with Ben Poulter, Ka4e Ireland, Steve Running); • Convene a vegeta4on modeling workshop (Sept 21, MSU); • Conduct studies of ecological response to drought across Montana and the NC CSC domain; • Prepare proposal to NASA for US/Canada Rockies and interna4onal vulnerability assessments of protected areas.
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)
• Convene expert panel for vulnerability assessment; • Co-‐host a symposium of conifer forest response to climate change; • Prepare results as NPS resource briefs; • Highlight resource briefs as webinars; • Document methods as NPS Standard Opera4ng Procedures • Con4nue to publish policy reports such as: Olliff et al. In Prep. Responding to climate change in the NPS Intermountain Region: A Guide to Developing Park-‐based Adapta4on Strategies. Natural Resource Report NPS/IMRO.
Acknowledgements NSF EPSCoR Track-‐I EPS-‐1101342 (INSTEP 3) NASA Applied Sciences Program (Grant 10-‐BIOCLIM10-‐0034) NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program North Central Climate Sciences Center
NSF EPSCoR Track-1 EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)