FOCUS 3: UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...

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FOCUS. 2. FOCUS 3. M. L. E. Original science figure. SYNTHESIS: Integrating models and knowledge of landscape organization into vulnerability assessments.
2013 IOE SUMMIT – HELENA, MT

FOCUS 3: UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH ECOSYSTEM MODELING AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Andy Hansen Montana State University

Steve Running University of Montana

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

EPSCOR SCIENCE

Focus 2:

LA Y NC E

FOCUS 2 PROJECT SYNTHESIS: Linking microbial processes to ecological patterns

FOCUS 2

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Forest and Hydrology Linkages Aquatic and Terrestrial Linkages

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VULNERABILITY

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MICROBIAL DYNAMICS

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Large River Floodplain Integrity Anthropology/SES and Floodplain Integrity

FOCUS 1 PROJECT

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES

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Microbial Contributions to C/N

LANDSCAPE PATTERNS

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INTEGRATION

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State Climate Scenarios and Datasets

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Climate Change/Adaptation Partnerships

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CLIMATE

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SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS INITIATIVE

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Integrated Resource Vulnerability Assessments

Statewide Ecosystem Simulations

Microbial Communities and Restoration

Understanding impacts of climate-change through ecosystem modeling and vulnerability Original science figure

LiDAR: Lake Ecosystems

Microbes and Forest Health

Linking changes in landscape pattern to ecosystem process

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FOCUS 3 PROJECT

Examining feedbacks between microbial metabolism and ecosystem processes

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Focus 3:

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Focus 1:

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1)  Develop  the  conceptual   approaches,  quan4ta4ve  tools,  and   science  and  management  teams  to   assess  the  vulnerability  under  future   climate  and  land  use  change  of:     •  ecosystem  processes   •  vegeta4on  composi4on   •  vegeta4on  phenology       2)  Explore  the  resiliency  and  adap4ve   capacity  of  these  ecosystem   proper4es  under  alterna4ve  climate   adapta4on  strategies.  

STAKEHOLDERS:

Montana’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Report and Science Portal

E LEGCOLOG

Goals:  

SCIENCE COLLABORATORS MSU   Hansen  Lab  

UM   Running  Lab  

Whitlock  Lab  &  IoE  

Helen  Naughton  

Nate  Piekielek,  Linda  Phillips,   Jared  Oyler,  Ashley  Ballantyne,   Tony  Chang,  Regan  Nelson,  Erica   Kelsey  Jencso,  Michael  Sweet     GarrouMe,  Ka4e  Ireland       Todd  Kipfer,  Virginia  Ignalis  

Liz  Shanahan  

Hansen  Lab,  MSU   Tom  Olliff,  NPS  /  Great  Northern  LCC   John  Gross,  Bill  Monihan,  NPS  I&M   Dave  Theobald,  Conserva4on  Science  Partners   Forest  Melton,  NASA  Ames   ScoM  Goetz,  Woods  Hole  Research  Center  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Jeff  MoriseMe,  Dennis  Ojima,  NCCSC   Hansen  Lab,  Whitlock  Lab  MSU   Running  Lab,  UM     Barry  Noon,  Susan  Skagan,  Colorado  State   University  and  USGS   Bill  Lauenroth  Lab,  University  of  Wyoming   Diane  Debinski  Lab,  Iowa  State  University    

AGENCY COLLABORATORS •  •  •  • 

•  •  • 

Western  US   Great  Northern  LCC,  Tom  Olliff   NPS  I&M  Greater  Yellowstone  Network,   Kristen  Legg   NPS  I&M  Rocky  Mountain  Network,  Mike   BriMen   Greater  Yellowstone  Coordina4ng  CommiMee   Whitebark  Pine  SubcommiMee,  Karl   Buermeyer  and  Virginia  Kelly   Grand  Teton  Na4onal  Park,  Kelly  McClosky     Yellowstone  Na4onal  Park,  Ann  Rodmann   Rocky  Mountain  Na4onal  Park,  Ben  Bobowski  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

•  •  •  •  •  • 

Eastern  US   NPS  I&M  Appalachian  Highlands  Network,   Robert  EmmoM   NPS  I&M  Eastern  Rivers  and  Mountains   Network,  MaM  Marshall   NPS  I&M  Mid-­‐Atlan4c  Network,  Jim  Comiskey   Delaware  Water  Gap  Na4onal  Recrea4onal   Area,  Richard  Evans  and  Leslie  Morelock   Great  Smoky  Mountains  Na4onal  Park,  Jim   Renfro   Shenandoah  Na4onal  Park,  Jim  Schaberl  

LANDSCAPE-SCALE 1948-2012 CLIMATE DATASETS FOR MONTANA Jared  Oyler,  Steve  Running    Ashley  Ballantyne,  Kelsey  Jencso,  Michael  Sweet   University  of  Montana  

Objec4ve  

Produce  a  topographically-­‐informed  spa4al  climate   dataset  of  Tmin,  Tmax,  Prcp,  Srad,  and  Humidity   •  1948  –  present,  daily  4mestep,  30-­‐arcsec  resolu4on   (~800m)   •  Supports  historical  analyses  and  opera4onal   products   •  Accounts  for  eleva4on,  terrain  posi4on,  water   bodies,  land  cover  

 

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

See  Oyler  et  al.  poster  

LANDSCAPE-SCALE 1948-2012 CLIMATE DATASETS FOR MONTANA Summary  and  Future  Work      

TopoWx  data  will  be  used  to  greatly   improve  ecologic/hydrologic  remote   sensing  products  for  the  state.  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

•  TopoWx  is  a  sta4s4cal  framework  for  genera4ng   landscape-­‐scale  climate  data  in  support  of  ecosystem   research  and  resource  management.     •  TopoWx  advantages  over  similar  products:   incorpora4on  of  remote  sensing  data  to  beMer  quan4fy   landscape-­‐scale  temperature  paMerns,  homogeniza4on   of  sta4on  records,  and  quan4fica4on  of  uncertainty.     •  TopoWx  has  already  been  used  within  the  state  in   support  of  climate  impact  studies  on  snowshoe  hares,   moose,  and  aqua4c  species.     •  TopoWx  will  be  extended  to  es4mate  humidity  and   solar  radia4on  so  MODIS  remote  sensing  models  are   more  applicable  to  single  watersheds.     •  TopoWx  is  fully  open  for  future  community-­‐driven   improvements.  

Adaptation Planning Approach

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Link with Collaborators and Assess Needs Organization   Greater Yellowstone Coord Comm Whitebark Pine Subcomm. Grand Teton NP

Rocky Mountain NP

Yellowstone NP

Great Smoky Mt NP Shenandoah NP App. Highlands I&M Delaware Watergap

Key Collaborators   Virginia Kelly, Karl Buermeyer, Dan Reinhart, Nancy Bokino, Kristin Legg Sue Consolo Murphy, Dave Hallac, Virginia Kelly, Kristen Legg, Kelly McClosky, Kathy Mellander, Dan Reinhart Ben Bobowski, Judy Visty, Jeff Connor, John Mack, Larry Gamble, Jim Cheatham, Mary-Kay Watry, Nate Williamson Dave Hallac, Ann Rodman, P.J. White, Roy Renkin,

Date  

April 2012 Effectiveness of “GYCC WBP Strategy” under March 2013 future climate Aug 2013 July 2012 Multiple May 2013 Nov 2012

Climate, land use, ecosystem interactions Limber pine Collaborative management among agencies

July 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013

Whitebark pine – grizzly bears Grassland phenology YNP climate change program direction: Monitoring, Vulnerable resources, Management options Vegetation comm (6 across elevation range) PACE methods Land use legacy in parks Hemlock vegetation community Land use / hydrology

Jim Renfro, Jeff Troutman, Tom Remaley, Jim Schaberl, Paul Super, Jeb Wofford

Nov 2012

Rich Evans, Mathew Marshall, Leslie Moorlock

Nov 2012

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Needs We Can Address  

Assess Vulnerability Exposure  

Sensi3vity  

Poten3al     Impact  

Adap3ve     Capacity   Vulnerability  

Exposure = magnitude & extent of change experienced Sensitivity = degree to which fitness/process is affected Adaptive capacity = coping responses of species/process

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Key  Climate  PaMerns  and  Ecological  Consequences:  GYE  PACE   Temperature  Anomaly  (1900-­‐2100)  

1900-­‐2010:  800-­‐m  PRISM   2010-­‐2100:  CMIP5  Ensemble  Average,  RCP  6.5  and  RCP  8.5  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Great Northern LCC - Projected Biome Shift Current

Winner

2090

Losers

GYE PACE

Data from Rehfeldt et al. 2012

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100 Goal: Illustrate the initial steps in an assessment of vulnerability to land use and climate change for the network of US National Parks Objectives: 1. Define the surrounding Protected Area Centered Ecosystem (PACE). 2. Quantify past exposure. 3. Quantify potential future exposure and potential impact. 4. Consider implications for management.

Hansen…Running.   In  Press.  Ecol  Apps.    

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability 1900-2000

Hansen…Running.   In  Press.  Ecol  Apps.    

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Temperature  Change    (deg  C  /  100  yrs)   7.00  

0.00   EVER   BITH   SLBE   BLRI   GUMO   NERI   BISO   GRSM   MOJA   GRSA   SACN   WHSA   JOTR   OLYM   BIBE   SHEN   BUFF   OZAR   ORPI   VOYA   PIRO   ELMA   POGO   BICA   SAMO   REDW   CACH   GRBA   DEWA   MORA   DINO   ARCH   PEFO   YELL   GLAC   CRMO   SAGU   LARO   NOCA   ROMO   CRLA   THRO   LAVO   MNRR   BADL   YOSE   DEVA   CORI†   ZION  

Synthesize Current Knowledge on Vulnerability 2000-2100

1895-­‐2007  

PACE  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3) Hansen…Running.   In  Press.  Ecol  Apps.    

6.00   2000-­‐2090  

5.00  

4.00  

3.00  

2.00  

1.00  

New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

CMIP5     RCP  2.6  4.5  6.0  8.5   800  m  

New Science on Vulnerability Ecological Forecasting

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

New Science on Vulnerability Glacier PACE 2006 - 2100

Ensemble  Average:  Summer   Soil  Water  

Snow-­‐water  Equivalent  

Runoff  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Gross  Primary  Produc4vity  

New Science on Vulnerability Whitebark Pine in GYE •  •  •  • 

•  •  • 

Mortality of WBP in GYE in 2009. McFarlane et al. 2013

Overview   Keystone  species   High  adult  mortality   Listed  as  candidate  species   Grizzly  bear  relisted  

Management  Ques4ons   Range  change  under  future  climate?   Seqngs  allowing  reproduc4on?   Where  to  focus  treatment  of  compe4tors,   transloca4on?  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Key Collaborators GYCC WBP Subcommittee

New Science on Vulnerability

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

See  Chang  et  al.  poster  

New Science on Vulnerability

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

See  Piekielek  poster   See  GarrouMe  poster  

Assess Vulnerability Via Expert Panels An  expert  panel  will  use  the  synthesis  of  current  studies  and  new  science  as  a   basis  for  ranking  vulnerability  of  key  ecological  processes  and  vegeta4on   communi4es  in  early  2014   Ecological  hindcas4ng   and  forecas4ng  

Expert  panel  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Climate Adaptation Management We  will  work  with  agency  collaborators  to   develop,  evaluate,  and  implement   management  strategies  for  vulnerable   elements.            

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Develop Implementable Management Strategies

Climate Adaptation Management: Example See  Hansen  et  al.  poster  

Goal: Evaluate potential success of WBP Strategy under future climate.

Challenge: Agencies / land allocation types differ in tolerance to management. Greater  Yellowstone  Ecosystem   Agency/Alloca4on  

Legal  Direc4on/Mgt   Philosophy  

Na4onal  Forests  

•  • 

NF  –  Wilderness   Area  

Mul*ple  use   Ecological  integrity  

Most  ac*ons  prohibited  or   discouraged    

NF  –  Inventoried   Roadless  Areas  

Ac*ons  less  restricted  but   remoteness  an  issue  

Yellowstone   Na4onal  Park  

Park  Service  Policy:  

Grand  Teton   Na4onal  Park  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

“Take  no  ac*on  that  would   diminish  the  wilderness   eligibility  of  an  area”  AND/BUT   “Management  ac*ons…should   be  aOempted  only  when   knowledge  and  tools  exist  to   accomplish  clearly  ar*culated   goals.”  

WBP  Restora4on  Tools  allowed  or   %  WBP   likely   All   •  •  •  •  •  • 

Plan*ng  seedlings/sowing  seeds   Pruning   Wildland  and  prescribed  fire  use   Targeted  fire  suppression   Mechanical  thinning   Research/Monitoring  

•  • 

Wildland  fire  use   Research/Monitoring  

54%  

•  •  •  • 

Plan*ng  seedlings/sowing  seeds   Wildland  fire  use   Research/Monitoring   Mechanical  thinning  (but  requires   USDA  Secretarial  approval)  

27%  

•  • 

Wildland  fire  use   Research/Monitoring  

10%  

•  •  •  • 

Plan*ng  seedlings/sowing  seeds   Pruning   Wildland  fire  use   Research/Monitoring  

Regan Nelson

5%  

3%  

Design and Deliver Adaptation Strategies

Approach:    Simulate  poten4al  outcomes  of   alterna4ve  management  op4ons:   •   Evaluate  current  WBP  Strategy   against  forecasts.       •   Create  two  addi4onal  op4ons  that   require  new  agency  tolerances.    

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

Potential Activities for 2013- 2014 Decision Support Activities

Science Activities •  Extend  TopoWx  to  es4mate  humidity  and  solar   radia4on  so  MODIS  remote  sensing  models  are   more  applicable  to  single  watersheds.   •  Sta4s4cal  distribu4on  modeling  of  5  addi4onal   vegeta4on  types;   •  Complete  GYE  phenology  studies;     •  Develop,  validate,  apply  LPG-­‐GUESS  as  dynamic   vegeta4on  simulator  for  regional  scale   applica4ons  (with  Ben  Poulter,  Ka4e  Ireland,   Steve  Running);   •  Convene  a  vegeta4on  modeling  workshop   (Sept  21,  MSU);   •  Conduct  studies  of  ecological  response  to   drought  across  Montana  and  the  NC  CSC   domain;   •  Prepare  proposal  to  NASA  for  US/Canada   Rockies  and  interna4onal  vulnerability   assessments  of  protected  areas.  

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)

 

•  Convene  expert  panel  for  vulnerability  assessment;     •  Co-­‐host  a  symposium  of  conifer  forest  response  to   climate  change;   •  Prepare  results  as  NPS  resource  briefs;   •  Highlight  resource    briefs  as  webinars;   •  Document  methods  as  NPS  Standard  Opera4ng   Procedures   •  Con4nue  to  publish  policy  reports  such  as:   Olliff  et  al.  In  Prep.  Responding  to  climate   change  in  the  NPS  Intermountain  Region:  A   Guide  to  Developing  Park-­‐based  Adapta4on   Strategies.  Natural  Resource  Report  NPS/IMRO.    

 

Acknowledgements NSF  EPSCoR  Track-­‐I    EPS-­‐1101342  (INSTEP  3)     NASA  Applied  Sciences  Program  (Grant  10-­‐BIOCLIM10-­‐0034)     NASA  Land  Cover  Land  Use  Change  Program     North  Central  Climate  Sciences  Center      

NSF EPSCoR Track-1  EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3)