Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity - National Climate Change

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan

Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

Update 2017

Authors Samantha Capon1, Jane Chambers2, Leon Barmuta3, Gilad Bino4, Nick Bond1, Justin Costelloe5, Jenny Davis6, Fiona Dyer7, Brendan Edgar6, Max Finlayson9, Mike Grace8, Cassandra James10, Ben Kefford7, Mark Kennard7, Sam Lake8, Daryl Nielsen11, Phil Wallis8, Ross Thompson7. Griffith University Murdoch University 3 University of Tasmania 4 University of New South Wales 5 University of Melbourne 6 Charles Darwin University 7 University of Canberra 8 Monash University 9 Charles Sturt University 10 James Cook University 11 CSIRO/Murray-Darling Freshwater Research Centre 1 2

This publication should be cited as: Capon S., Chambers J., Barmuta L., Bino G., Bond N., Costelloe J., Davis J., Dyer F., Edgar B., Finlayson M., Grace M., James C., Kefford B., Kennard M., Lake S., Nielsen D., Wallis P., and Thompson R. (2017). National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity: Update 2017. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 41pp. ISBN: 978-1-921609-00-8 © Copyright 2017 NCCARF.

Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) www.nccarf.edu.au. NCCARF works to support decision makers throughout Australia as they prepare for and manage the risks of climate change. Hosted by Griffith University on the Gold Coast, NCCARF has a national focus across Australia to build resilience to climate change in government, NGOs and the private sector. NCCARF is funded by the Australian Government through the Department of Environment and Energy. Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are not necessarily the view of the Commonwealth and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information and advice contained within.

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National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan | Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

National Climate National Climate National Climate Change Adaptation Change Adaptation ChangePlan Adaptation Research Plan Research Research Plan

Freshwater Terrestrial Terrestrial ecosystems and Biodiversity Biodiversity biodiversity Update 2017


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Contents Executive summary 1.1 Global policy context for adaptation

1. Introduction

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1.2 National policy context for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans

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1.3 Background to the NARPs

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1.4 Revision of the NARPs

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2. Context and methodological approach

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3. Summary of knowledge gaps addressed in NCCARF Phase 1

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3.1 Knowledge gaps identified in the Freshwater NARP 3.2 Findings of research funded under the original Freshwater NARP

4. Adaptation research goals and Priority Research Questions

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4.1 Research, management and policy context

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4.2 Revised adaptation research goals

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Goal 1. Understand climate change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

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Goal 2. Incorporate climate change adaptation into the policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity.

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Goal 3. To promote compatibility of adaptation strategies between freshwater biodiversity conservation and management and other sectors. 19

5. References

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Appendix 1. Literature review: Australia’s freshwater ecosystems

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A.1 Background

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A.1.1

Key features of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

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A.1.2

Major pressures on Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

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A.1.3

Management of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

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A.2 Responses and vulnerability of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems to climate change

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A.2.1

Exposure of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems to climate change

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A.2.2

Sensitivity of Australia’s freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change

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A.2.3

Adaptive capacity of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity

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A.2.4

Likely impacts

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A.2.5

Observed trends

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A.3 Adaptation responses A.3.1

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Incorporating climate change adaptation into freshwater biodiversity policy and management 31

A.3.2

Identification and protection of refugia and refuges

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A.3.3

Other adaptation approaches

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A.3.4

Compatibility of adaptation initiatives between sectors

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Appendix 1: References

Appendix 2. Research prioritisation matrix

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Essential

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Desirable

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Acknowledgements 41

Executive summary Executive Summary

In 2011, a National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan (NARP) was developed for the freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity theme of climate change adaptation (Bates et al. 2011). In this NARP the term ‘freshwater’ encompasses all inland waters, whether salt or fresh. The Freshwater NARP aims to identify priority research questions for climate change adaptation issues relevant to Australia’s freshwater species and ecosystems. This NARP is now being updated. The most important component of the NARP is to identify and prioritise adaptation research questions that are important, often urgent, and will provide knowledge that is needed by adaptation stakeholders across Australia.

The new draft questions have been subject to stakeholder review and feedback between October and December 2016, and this document now includes these updates. We thank the reviewers for their comments and suggestions. This document delivers a resource for research providers to identify critical gaps of information needed by sectoral decision-makers; set research priorities based on these gaps, and identify capacity across the network that could be harnessed to conduct priority research that addresses stakeholders’ requirements and involvement. Strategic, cost effective actions are required to maximise potential benefits of management. The knowledge generated by research, that addresses the questions described in this report, will facilitate informed decisions and appropriate adaptation actions.

In 2016, the purpose of this document is to review the freshwater NARP. This has been done through a literature review and workshops held in 2015-16. Based on the review and workshops, 10 Priority Research Questions have been identified within three broad research goals (Table A): 1. To understand climate change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 2. To incorporate climate change adaptation into the policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 3. To promote compatibility of adaptation strategies between freshwater biodiversity conservation and management and other sectors.


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Executive Summary

Table A. Summary of high priority research questions for freshwater biodiversity. Goal 1. To understand climate change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 1. How do changes in climatic components interact with each other and with other stressors to affect freshwater biodiversity, individual species and ecosystems in space and time? Including the direct and indirect effects of: 1.6 Multiple interacting climatic stressors? 1.7 Multiple interacting climatic and anthropogenic stressors (legacies and current) including effects of climate change on terrestrial and marine systems? 2. What is the sensitivity to climate change effects of different freshwater ecosystems and species? 2.1 What attributes determine the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems and species to climate change effects? 2.2 Which freshwater ecosystems and species are most sensitive to climate change effects? 3. What influences the capacity of freshwater biodiversity to adapt to, and ecosystem processes to be maintained, in the face of climate change? 3.3 What range shifts and migration of freshwater species and ecosystems can be expected in response to climate change? Goal 2: To incorporate climate change adaptation into the policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 6. What is the range and efficacy of existing policies and management approaches for conserving and managing freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change (including those focused on climate change explicitly and others)? 6.1 What are the barriers to and opportunities for improved adaptation of policy and management for the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change across multiple scales? 6.2 How can existing policies and management approaches be better aligned to improve the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change? 7. What are the aims, goals, objectives and targets of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 7.1 How can the natural sciences contribute to the elicitation and development of societal values of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change? 8. What existing and potential adaptation options are available for policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? Goal 3: To promote compatibility of adaptation strategies between freshwater biodiversity conservation and management and other sectors. 13. What are the risks and opportunities for adaptation of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity associated with adaptation strategies and actions in other sectors? 14. How can adaptation options and strategies for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity be integrated into adaptation strategies in other sectors? 15. What are the risks and benefits of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to other sectors (e.g. changes to ecosystem services)? 16. How can novel/hybrid freshwater ecosystems benefit other sectors (e.g. flood mitigation)? 17. How can existing monitoring networks in other sectors be expanded to establish long-term monitoring for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity?

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1. Introduction There is now widespread acceptance in Australian society of the need to respond to climate change, with changes in our climate already being observed both in Australia and around the globe. For instance, in 2015 NASA reported that the Earth’s surface temperatures were the warmest since modern records began in 1880. In 2016, Arctic winter sea ice reached the lowest maximum extent in the satellite record, replacing 2015’s record low. In Australia, Sydney had a record run of 36 days of temperatures above 26oC, breaking the previous record of 19 days set in 2014. And there have been dramatic impacts linked to these weather events: an aerial survey of the northern Great Barrier Reef showed that 95% of reefs were affected by bleaching during the 2016 bleaching event, and mortality is estimated at 22%. The Australian Government has acknowledged the need to respond to climate change by meeting its internationally agreed targets and by supporting an effective international response.

1.1 Global policy context for adaptation The global policy context is managed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and sets the scene for Australia’s response to climate change. The principle international mechanism for climate change response is the Paris Agreement, which emerged from the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in December 2015 (COP21). The Agreement covers both adaptation and mitigation efforts, and sets out goals for each.

The Paris Agreement establishes a global goal to significantly strengthen national adaptation efforts

1. Introduction 1. Introduction

For adaptation, the stated goal in the Agreement is set out in Article 7: Adaptation – The Paris Agreement establishes a global goal to significantly strengthen national adaptation efforts – enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reduction of vulnerability to climate change – through support and international cooperation. It also recognizes that adaptation is a global challenge faced by all. All Parties should submit and update periodically an adaptation communication on their priorities, implementation and support needs, plans and actions. Developing country Parties will receive enhanced support for adaptation actions. Goals for mitigation are set through the Intended Nationally Declared Contributions (INDCs) to global emissions reduction put forward by individual nations. Although the Agreement states that the target is to limit global temperature increase to no more than 2oC above pre-industrial levels, at the present time the sum total of declared INDCs will most likely lead to a rise of around 2.6oC. The agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 once it had been ratified by 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions. Article 13 of the Agreement obliges all countries to have a transparent and robust accounting system that will enable them to report on their actions relating to mitigation, adaptation and support, and that will be subject to international review. Linked to this is a ‘global stocktake’ that will take place in 2023 and subsequently every five years to assess collective progress in meeting the purpose of the Agreement The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is responsible for assessment of the scientific knowledge on climate change, as a basis for the negotiations carried out through the UNFCCC. It prepares periodic Assessment Reports, the most recent of which was the Fifth Assessment, published in a number of volumes through 2013 and 2014. The IPCC has embarked on a Sixth Assessment, due to report in time for the 2023 global stocktake.


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1. Introduction

1.2 National policy context for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans The Australian Government is committed to undertaking and supporting adaptation to climate change. In this context, the term ‘adaptation’ refers to the practical actions undertaken by society to reduce the adverse risks of climate change on human and natural systems, as well as to harness any beneficial opportunities that climate change may generate. The basis for guidance on government action on adaptation in 2016 remains the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (the Adaptation Framework) that was endorsed by the Councils of Australian Governments (COAG) in 2007. The Adaptation Framework identifies possible actions to assist adaptation to climate change by vulnerable sectors and regions, such as water resources, human health, settlements and infrastructure, and coasts. It also identifies actions to enhance the knowledge base that underpins climate change and to improve national coordination of climate change adaptation research. The Adaptation Framework to date has catalysed a broad range of initiatives and institutions, including the establishment of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) in 2007 followed by further funding for NCCARF in 2014.

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In 2015, the Australian Government developed the National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy (the Adaptation Strategy) which outlines the roles of governments including the critical role to ensure the right institutional environment to support and promote action to address climate risks. This includes outlining the role of the Australian Government, which is to ensure the provision of authoritative climate science and information to ensure that those in society can make informed decisions and changes to their behaviour to address climate risks. The Adaptation Strategy specifically ‘affirms a set of principles to guide effective adaptation practice and resilience building, looks at leading practice nationally, and considers areas for future review, consultation and action’ (p.5). These principles are: 1. Shared responsibility 2. Factoring climate risks into decision making 3. An evidence-based, risk management approach 4. Helping the vulnerable 5. Collaborative, values-based choices 6. Revisiting decisions and outcomes over time. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans (NARPs) are one important route for developing capacity by articulating the key knowledge gaps for an evidence-based, risk management-based approach for adaptation knowledge and action. Also important is to outline clear direction for investment in science, technology and innovation for adaptation that will help to manage climate risks and emerging opportunities.


1. Introduction

1.3 Background to the NARPs NCCARF was established by the Australian Government in 2007 (and then further funded from 2014 to 2017) to coordinate and lead the Australian research community in generating the biophysical, social and economic information and tools needed to facilitate adaptation to climate change. A key role of NCCARF is to coordinate the development of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans (NARPs) across a range of priority areas. This exercise is led by NCCARF’s National Adaptation Networks that, as communities of researchers and practitioners, aim to connect researchers and research users in government, sectors and communities with a view to building and maintaining the capacity to adapt to a changing climate. The current National Adaptation Networks focus on four key challenge areas in adaptation; Natural Ecosystems; Settlements and Infrastructure; Social, Economic and institutional Dimensions; and Vulnerable Communities (for more information www. nccarf.edu.au/content/adaptation-networks)

The NARPs are research plans, addressing specific topics, which aim to identify critical gaps in the information required by governments, industry and the community to develop and implement effective adaptation responses to climate change. The gaps that are identified by research providers, policy makers and practitioners through this process can be used to set research priorities. The NARPs provide an outline for a strategic approach to priority research aimed at informing managers, policy makers and the public in order to facilitate better decisions that help to maximise Australia’s potential to adapt to climate change. The first NARPS were developed during the period 2009-2010 and covered eight priority areas: emergency management, human health, marine biodiversity and resources, primary industries, settlements and infrastructure, terrestrial biodiversity, freshwater biodiversity and social economic and institutional dimensions of adaptation. An Indigenous communities NARP was developed in 2012. Several of the NARPS were revised during 2011- 2013 and now, in 2016, there is another round of NARP revisions. The revisions timetable is outlined in Table 1.

Table 1: Timetable of NARP development and revision. Original NARPs

Previous revision of NARPs

Current revision of NARPS

Emergency Management (2010)

Revised in 2012

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Human Health (2009)

Revised in 2012

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Marine Ecosystems and Biodiversity (2010)

Revised in 2012

Under revision in 2016

Primary Industries (2009)

Revised in 2013

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Settlements and Infrastructure (2010)

Revised in 2012


Terrestrial Ecosystems and Biodiversity (2011)

Revised in 2013


Freshwater Ecosystems and Biodiversity (2011)

-


Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions (2011)

-


Indigenous Communities (2012)

-


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1. Introduction

1.4 Revision of the NARPs The revision of the NARPs broadly follows a process of four steps: 1. Appointing a writing team of topic experts 2. Reviewing the scientific literature published since the previous version of the NARP 3. Undertaking consultation workshops with researchers, practitioners and policy makers 4. Collating the material into an annotated list of priorities 5. Subsequently, each of the NARP teams has customised this process to suit their topic and stakeholders.

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2. Context and methodological approach 2. Context

The aim of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan is to identify priority research required to inform policy and management aimed at implementing adaptation actions to protect Australia’s biodiversity under a changing climate. This process helps to identify and prioritise knowledge gaps, suggest research to fill these gaps, strengthen linkages between researchers and stakeholder/end-user groups, reduce duplication of research and maximise return on public investment in research. To assist this process, our analysis provides a significant review and consultation process in order to identify research gaps, stakeholders and research provider needs, and collaborative possibilities and synergies, thereby delivering a valuable resource for terrestrially focused research providers and end-users. This document delivers a resource for research providers by helping to locate relevant research information more efficiently, and by ensuring that proposed research is strategic and targeted at the needs of the end-users. It provides a resource for end-users by delivering a repository of freshwater biodiversity research prioritisation by identifying the areas of research where stakeholder interests overlap. Finally, the report can also be used by funding bodies to help guide the prioritisation of resources.

The revision of adaptation research goals and priority research questions presented in this NARP was mostly conducted during a workshop held in Melbourne in September 2015. The workshop was attended by twelve of the contributing authors of this NARP, representing a range of relevant disciplines and with experience of diverse geographical regions. Pre- and post-workshop surveys were conducted to allow those unable to attend the workshop to also contribute and to give participants an opportunity to provide feedback on workshop results. The literature review providing the context for this NARP draws on the literature review presented in the previous NARP and incorporates additional information published since its release (Appendix 1). A summary of research findings of projects funded under the previous NARP is also presented. Once these advances and gaps were identified the previous Priority Research Question (PRQs) were updated and restructured. The final draft was submitted for open review and consultation with different stakeholders, key end-users and wider community providing comments and input to the final NARP.

To review and update the priorities for freshwater research, a review and writing team from the Natural Ecosystems Network worked to produce an update of the National Adaptation Research Plan in 2016. The review and writing team for the Freshwater Ecosystems and Biodiversity NARP (Freshwater NARP) reviewed the original NARP developed in 2011 and identified research priorities and changes given the progress in knowledge and research since the previous version. The term ‘freshwater’ in this NARP encompasses all inland waters, whether salt or fresh.


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2. Context

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3. Summary of knowledge gaps addressed in NCCARF Phase 1 3. Summary of knowledge gaps

3.1 Knowledge gaps identified in the Freshwater NARP The original Freshwater NARP (Bates et al. 2011) identified a set of research knowledge gaps that are required to support freshwater ecosystems to adapt to a changing climate and developed a set of priority research questions (Table 2). The purpose of these questions are to support researchers to focus their research to fill these knowledge gaps.

Table 2: High Priority Research Questions from Freshwater NARP (Bates et al. 2011).

Question

Goal and priority research questions

Goal 1:

Incorporate climate change adaptation into management of freshwater species and ecosystems

Very high priority

1

What management options will conserve freshwater species and ecosystems that are currently at or near their climate limits?

√

2

What attributes will enable freshwater species to adapt and ecosystems to successfully change autonomously in response to climate change?

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How will climate change alter current freshwater biodiversity management effectiveness, and what management changes will be required, including for poorly understood species and ecosystems?

Goal 2:

Identify climate change adaptation options for Australia’s freshwater biodiversity refugia

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How can the climate resilience of freshwater biodiversity refugia be increased?

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What changes to Australia’s conservation reserve system are required to improve protection of current and projected climate refugia and to support connectivity for freshwater biodiversity?

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What adaptation options will facilitate the type and level of connectivity and dispersal required under climate change impacts

Goal 3:

√

√

Understand climate change adaptation interactions between freshwater biodiversity and other sectors

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How will climate change impacts on other sectors affect existing stressors on freshwater biodiversity?

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How can current non-climate stressors on freshwater biodiversity be managed or reduced to minimise the synergistic effects of climate and non-climate stressors?

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What integrated climate change adaptation response plans at the local, landscape, catchment and regional scales will build the resilience of freshwater biodiversity, and also terrestrial biodiversity, primary industries, water resources, and associated communities and industries?

Goal 4:

High priority

√ √

√

Understand the role of environmental policies in protecting freshwater biodiversity under changing climate conditions

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How will climate change affect existing conservation goals, policies and programs for freshwater biodiversity, including meeting Australia’s international obligations?

Goal 5:

Cross-cutting theme: Ensure that adaptation initiatives for freshwater biodiversity and other sectors are mutually supportive and integrated where appropriate

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What climate change adaptation and mitigation actions taken in other sectors will benefit freshwater biodiversity?

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√

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3. Summary of knowledge gaps

Under NCCARF Phase 1, the Priority Research Questions developed in the original Freshwater NARP (Bates et al. 2011) were used to prioritise research funding. NCCARF funded nine research projects to address these questions (Table 3). Table 3: NCCARF funded projects commissioned to address original Priority Research Questions identified in Bates et al. 2011. Research Project Title

PRQs addressed

Principal Researcher

Contributing to a sustainable future for Australia’s biodiversity under climate change: conservation goals for dynamic management of ecosystems.

12,13,14

Michael Dunlop – CSIRO

Adapting to climate change: a risk assessment and decision framework for managing groundwater dependent ecosystems with declining water levels.

1,2

Jane Chambers – Murdoch University

Identification and characterisation of freshwater refugia in the face of climate change

6,7,8

Jeremy VanDerWal – James Cook University

Building the climate resilience of arid zone freshwater biota: identifying and prioritising processes and scales for management.

1,2,3,6,7,9,10, 12

Jenny Davis – Monash University

Impacts of elevated temperature and CO2 on the critical processes underpinning resilience of aquatic ecosystems

3

Ross Thompson – Monash University

Adaptive management of Ramsar wetlands

4,5

Richard Kingsford – University of New South Wales

Joining the dots: integrating climate and hydrological projections with freshwater ecosystem values to develop adaptation options for conserving freshwater biodiversity

4

Leon Barmuta – University of Tasmania

Predicting water quality and ecological responses to a changing climate: informing adaptation initiatives

9,10

Fiona Dyer – University of Canberra

Novel methods for managing freshwater refuges against climate change in southern Australia

2

Belinda Robson – Murdoch University

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3.2 Findings of research funded under the original Freshwater NARP

Project 2. Adapting to climate change: a risk assessment and decision framework for managing groundwater dependent ecosystems with declining water levels

Nine projects were conducted under the first Freshwater NARP for Freshwater Biodiversity, published in 2011. All of these projects addressed one or more goals and priority research questions from the last NARP. The project reports are available on the NCCARF website (https://www.nccarf.edu.au/ research/thematic/397/); summaries of key findings of each project are presented here.

This project developed and tested a risk assessment and decision-making framework for managing groundwater dependent ecosystems in the face of climate change as well as anthropogenic pressures and management. The resulting framework was built on a conceptual model linking climate, hydrology, water quality and biodiversity at an ecosystem scale. Drivers of ecosystem change to prioritise management and climate change adaptation are highlighted by the model with a main focus on reduced water levels. A standard risk assessment protocol was used to facilitate the transferability of the framework across Australia and globally.

Project 1. Contributing to a sustainable future for Australia’s biodiversity under climate change: conservation goals for dynamic management of ecosystems This project explored objectives of biodiversity conservation under climate change as well as barriers to recalibrating these. Three key adaptation propositions were developed based on insights from scientific literature: 1. Conservation strategies accommodate large amounts of ecological change and the likelihood of significant climate change–induced loss in biodiversity 2. Strategies remain relevant and feasible under a range of possible future trajectories of ecological change 3. Strategies seek to conserve the multiple different dimensions of biodiversity that are experienced and valued by society. Collectively, these propositions were used to frame a ‘climate ready’ approach to conservation. Twentysix conservation strategy documents, from local to international, were then reviewed and four case studies were conducted to explore the implications of this ‘climate ready’ approach. This found that existing conservation practices require significant changes to their objectives and priorities to be robust although some aspects were in early stages. Key barriers to adopting a climate ready approach were identified including a need for better ecological characterisation of ecosystem health and human activities in landscapes, improved understanding of the effects of societal values on biodiversity, ecosystems and landscapes and the development of policy tools to frame and implement robust objectives.

Project 3. Identification and characterisation of freshwater refugia in the face of climate change This project used a range of approaches to explore the concept of climate refugia and refuges for freshwater biodiversity and to determine the likely stability and refugial value of large-scale regions across Australia. The project found that many regions are likely to experience future climates and climatic events well beyond the current range of variability. This is likely to have significant implications for freshwater ecosystem composition and structure, including changes to the perennial nature of streams and waterholes. High priority refuges were identified as areas where temperature changes are likely to be mediated by high vegetation cover or shading by topographic features. The findings also suggest that some current protected areas are unlikely to provide adequate refuge for freshwater biodiversity under projected changes. Three case studies were conducted to examine applications of this analysis to adaptation decisions.


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Project 4. Building the climate resilience of arid zone freshwater biota: identifying and prioritising processes and scales for management This project considered the development of national guidelines for adaptation planning for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity in Australia’s arid zone. The results can be used to guide policy, planning and on-ground actions related to the key goal of managing risks associated with the potential loss and deterioration of aquatic habitats and their dependent species. A strategic adaptive management framework is presented that proposes a range of adaptation options including: a national mapping program of arid zone freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity, a national vulnerability assessment, identification and prioritisation of evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges for adaptation action, protection of ecological heterogeneity, protection of dry sediments to protect egg and seed banks, protection of connectivity, management of existing stressors and management of novel ecosystems. Project 5. Impacts of elevated temperature and CO2 on the critical processes underpinning resilience of aquatic ecosystems Experimental research conducted in this project explored potential threshold relationships between climate and key ecological processes to better inform riparian revegetation as an adaptation action. Flume experiments were run to examine algal productivity, carbon dynamics and aquatic invertebrate community responses to treatments based on realistic temperature regimes. Algal productivity and carbon dynamics were found to be relatively resistant to the warming treatments conducted while aquatic invertebrate communities exhibited changes in size structure of particular taxa. These biological responses were sex specific as well as species specific, suggesting a potential for changes in sex ratios in response to warming that may lead to local extinctions. Declines in overall community body size, averaged across taxa, were also observed. Field studies indicated that stream temperatures were reduced by riparian vegetation which therefore appeared to support higher abundances and diversity of aquatic invertebrates, supporting the use of riparian revegetation for adaptation of freshwater ecosystems to warming.

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Project 6. Adaptive management of Ramsar wetlands This project contributed to the development of an adaptive management framework for the Ramsar-listed Macquarie Marshes in the northern Murray-Darling Basin. The framework comprises a hierarchy of objectives incorporating current management and the best available science to inform climate change adaptation. A generic approach was adopted to facilitate transferability of the framework to other wetlands. Project 7. Joining the dots: integrating climate and hydrological projections with freshwater ecosystem values to develop adaptation options for conserving freshwater biodiversity Using Tasmania as a case study, this project concluded that downscaled climate modelling, linked with modelling of catchment and hydrological processes, refines projections for climate-driven risks to aquatic environments. Spatial and temporal hazards and risks can now be compared at a variety of scales, as well as comparisons between biodiversity assets (e.g. relative risk to riparian vegetation versus in-stream biota). Uncertainties can be identified and built into adaptation processes. Notwithstanding this progress, a number of issues were identified that need to be addressed in order to increase confidence in this process: 1. Improvements are needed urgently in modelling the persistence of freshwater ecosystems, including the contribution of ground waters together with basic, mechanistic research into physiological responses by key organisms 2. Procedures need to be further developed (e.g. improved scenario modelling) to prevent stakeholders from being overwhelmed by the number and varying scales of adaptation options available 3. Flexible planning and legislative tools and frameworks need to be developed and formalised to cope with the uncertainties in climate projections 4. Integration of multiple adaptation strategies (sometimes at different scales) to achieve specific adaptation objectives within regions or catchments—especially where a mix of water management and terrestrial management is required.



Project 8. Predicting water quality and ecological responses to a changing climate: informing adaptation initiatives

Project 9. Novel methods for managing freshwater refuges against climate change in southern Australia

This project developed a modelling framework for assessing water quality and ecological responses (e.g. macroinvertebrates and fish) to climate change in order to inform water planning and climate change adaptation decisions. The framework provides quantitative predictions based on future climatic and anthropogenic factors facilitating the exploration by decision-makers of likely changes in water quality and freshwater ecosystems under plausible scenarios including a range of flow changes, temperature increases and management strategies. A Bayesian Network approach was used to develop the model from top-down and bottom-up approaches using the Upper Murrumbidgee River catchment in the southern Murray-Darling Basin as a case study. An approach to building comparable models for other regions is presented in the project’s results.

This project examined four approaches to climate change adaptation aimed at protecting and enhancing freshwater refuges in southern Australia including: 1.) use of cool-water releases from reservoirs to reduce in-stream temperatures; 2.) prioritisation of riparian revegetation at a catchment-scale; 3.) refugial value of artificial urban wetlands; and 4.) identification and prioritisation of redundant river regulation infrastructure for removal. Cool-water releases were found to have potential for mimicking natural thermal regimes, mitigating against high temperature extremes and facilitating fish movement between thermal refuges. Tools to determine optimal riparian revegetation for reduction of in-stream temperatures and to guide removal or modification of in-stream barriers were also developed. Recommendations for managing artificial wetlands so they have greater refugial value are presented.


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4. Adaptation research goals and Priority Research Questions 4. Priority research questions

4.1 Research, management and policy context The research goals and questions presented in this revised NARP have been developed in relation to our best current understanding of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity, their pressures and management, and their potential interactions with climate change. Some key observations and issues framing these questions are highlighted here as important context for the research goals and questions which follow. • Climate change is an ‘umbrella’ pressure, therefore it is critical to consider the interaction of climate change with other stressors (particularly anthropogenic stressors) in addition to its direct effects. Furthermore, clarity is needed with respect to the effects of specific climatic stressors rather than discussion of blanket ‘climate change’ effects. However, cumulative effects of these individual stressors, including synergistic and/or antagonistic interactions, also require consideration. • Many Australian freshwater ecosystems (and their biodiversity) are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change due to a combination of continental aridity, a high degree of endemism, fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems in their broader landscapes, and the highly contested nature of their defining resource – water.

• Long-term datasets and innovative methods and approaches to monitoring of Australian freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are urgently needed. Despite recent investments in environmental observation networks in Australia (e.g. Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network or TERN, and the Water Resources Observation Network or WRON), freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity still lack attention. • A paradigm shift in natural resources management is occurring, involving adaptive management processes, greater participation and collaboration, an increased impetus for evidencebased decision-making and a drive to improve integration of diverse values and knowledge. • Climate change adaptation requires major changes to current approaches to policy and management. In particular, effective adaptation will require consideration of multiple spatial and temporal scales, and their interactions, and a long-term focus and recognition that the future will differ from the past. Improved integration between natural science disciplines and other forms of knowledge, including Indigenous knowledge, is also essential. • Climate change adaptation fundamentally requires understanding and managing risk and uncertainties.

• Many Australian freshwater ecosystems (and their biodiversity) are already highly modified and already following trajectories of change, mostly of degradation, in response to historical and current pressures. • Connectivity within and between freshwater ecosystems as well as with terrestrial and marine ecosystems is critical for the ecological functioning of these systems and their biodiversity. Biotic and biogeochemical subsidies between freshwater, marine and terrestrial and ecosystems are very poorly understood at present.


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4. Priority research questions

4.2 Revised adaptation research goals Three research goals have been identified that highlight broadly differing areas of knowledge needed to inform effective climate change adaptation for the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. It is important to recognise that these research goals are not mutually exclusive, however, and that addressing questions under each goal will contribute to research focussing on the other goals. The goals are to: 1. Understand climate change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 2. To incorporate climate change adaptation into the policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 3. Inform the compatibility of adaptation strategies between freshwater biodiversity conservation and management and other sectors. The research questions identified in relation to each goal aimed to be comprehensive and thorough overall, while also allowing particularly significant aspects to be highlighted. This complete list of research questions was prioritised according to criteria presented in Appendix 2. Table 4 highlights very high Priority Research Questions emerging from this process.

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Goal 1. Understand climate change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity This goal is considered essential as the capacity to develop effective adaptation strategies depends on an understanding of interactions between freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity and climatic (and nonclimatic) stressors. This goal was excluded from the previous NARP as it largely concerns impacts rather than adaptation. However, our current level of understanding concerning Australian freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity is insufficient to adequately inform many adaptation approaches previously explored. In particular, we have a very poor and fragmented understanding of the legacies of past disturbances on freshwater ecosystems and how these might interact with contemporary disturbances. The interaction of climatic components is likely to differ considerably between freshwater ecosystems. Some of the components may have universal responses but the interactions, and the strength of those interactions will likely differ across different environments (regulated rivers, temporary rivers, arid rivers etc.) and geographic locations. The research questions identified in relation to this goal were confined to those areas considered essential to developing meaningful adaptation strategies and it is inherent that the aim of research carried out under these goals is to directly and transparently inform adaptation needs.



Priority Research Questions 1. How do changes in climatic components interact with each other and with other stressors to affect freshwater biodiversity, individual species and ecosystems in space and time? These include the direct and indirect effects of:

3. What influences the capacity of freshwater biodiversity to adapt to, and ecosystem processes to be maintained, in the face of climate change?

1.1 CO2 and temperature change 1.2

Climate-altered water regimes

1.3

Changes in specific climatic stimuli (other than CO2, temperature change and altered water regime)

1.4

Extreme climatic events under projected climatic changes

1.5

Sea-level rise both directly and via interactions with other stressors and extreme events

1.6

Multiple interacting climatic stressors

1.7

Multiple interacting climatic and anthropogenic stressors (legacies and current) including effects of climate change on terrestrial and marine systems

2. What is the sensitivity to climate change effects, including primary and other effects, of different freshwater ecosystems and species? 2.1

What attributes determine the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems and species to climate change effects?

2.2

Which freshwater ecosystems and species are most sensitive to climate change effects?

2.3

Which freshwater ecosystems and species might be unaffected by or benefit from climate change effects?

3.1

What attributes of ecosystems and landscapes create climate refuges1?

3.2

How can individual organisms, populations and species of freshwater biota adapt to climate change in situ (i.e. acclimation, plasticity, behavioural change, epigenetics, genetic adaptation)? What traits confer resistance and resilience to climate change stressors?

3.3

What range shifts and migration of freshwater species and ecosystems can be expected in response to climate change?

3.4

How have past climate changes shaped Australian freshwater ecosystems and species?

4. How can novel/hybrid2 ecosystems conserve freshwater biota and maintain ecosystem processes under climate change? 4.1

What predictions can be made about future no-analogue ecosystems (e.g. spatial distribution, character, function etc.)?

5. What monitoring (both short and longterm) is required (including novel monitoring methodologies, enhancement of existing monitoring and establishment of new monitoring) to understand effects of climate change and adaptation on freshwater ecosystems and species?

Climate refuges are sites to which biota retreat, persist in and potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions (Keppel et al. 2012).

1

A novel ecosystem is one that, due to human influence, differs from those that prevailed historically and manifest novels qualities. Hybrid systems retain some original characteristics as well as novel elements (Hobbs et al. 2013).

2


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Goal 2. Incorporate climate change adaptation into the policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. This research goal concerns understanding how policy and management options that directly concern the conservation and management of Australian freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity can be adapted to climate change. The first two questions (6.1, 6.2) address the adaptive capacity of current policies and management practices while the following questions focus on adapting key steps of an adaptive management framework, i.e. goal setting (7.1, 7.2), identifying and understanding adaptation options (8.1, 8.2, 8.3), prioritising adaptation options (9.1, 9.2), implementation (10.1, 10.2), and monitoring and evaluation (11.1, 11.2). The final questions (12.1, 12.2) highlight a need to plan for surprises and potential novel and no-analogue situations that may arise in the future. Priority Research Questions 6. What is the range and efficacy of existing policies and management approaches for conserving and managing freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change (including those focused on climate change explicitly and others)? 6.1

6.2

What are the barriers and opportunities for improved adaptation of policy and management for the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change across multiple scales? How can existing policies and management approaches be better aligned to improve the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change?

7. What are the aims, goals, objectives and targets of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 7.1

How can the natural sciences contribute to the elicitation and development of societal values of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change?

7.2

What is the range of plausible futures for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under different climate futures and adaptation pathways?

8. What existing and potential adaptation options are available for policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 8.1

How can scientific research findings be applied and incorporated into adaptation policy and management across multiple (i.e. local to global) scales?

8.2

What are the benefits and risks (including uncertainties) associated with different adaptation options?

8.3

What is the scientific evidence supporting the efficacy of adaptation options for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity?

9. How can adaptation options for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity be prioritised by decision-makers? 9.1

How can diverse knowledge be integrated to inform selection of appropriate adaptation options?

9.2

How can adaptation options be effectively combined to produce appropriate strategies for relevant spatio-temporal contexts?

10. How can adaptation options for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity best be implemented? 10.1 How can existing adaptation knowledge inform effective workplans for the delivery of adaptation strategies and actions for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 10.2 What drives effective uptake and maintenance of adaptation strategies and actions for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity?

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11. How can adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity be effectively monitored and evaluated? What innovative methods can be developed to support this? 11.1 What relevant long-term datasets exist and how can these be used to develop appropriate indicators and monitoring programmes (including accessibility)? 11.2 What ecological indicators and monitoring protocols best inform the evaluation of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 12. How can we manage for surprises, including unexpected events and unexpected responses, in freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 12.1 How can novel freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity best be managed for biodiversity outcomes under climate change? 12.2 How can we best manage for future freshwater ecosystems, situations etc. that have no current analogues? Goal 3. To promote compatibility of adaptation strategies between freshwater biodiversity conservation and management and other sectors. This research goal relates to the integration of this NARP with other sectors. It concerns adaptation of policy and management in other sectors, not directly concerned with the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity, but that are nevertheless likely to have a significant impact on these. Because freshwater ecosystems are embedded in catchments and strongly influenced by patterns of connectivity at catchment, basin and even continental scales, protection of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity depends on management practices across a wide range of scales and sectors. There is an important role to use the science engendered by this NARP to encourage behaviour change, associated policy implementation, program design and science communication to address climate risks in both the freshwater and other sectors. In particular, water resources management has a direct and overarching effect on the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of freshwater ecosystems to climate change.

Other sectors which are likely to be particularly influential include: carbon farming and re-vegetation; urban planning; mining and energy; agriculture and food production; human health; recreation and tourism; and law reform and governance. There is an urgent need for decision-makers directly concerned with the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to educate and engage with other sectors and the broader community to avoid perverse outcomes and maximise benefits of adaptation actions across society. Communication and education is a shared responsibility across decision-makers, policy makers, managers, and researchers in all sectors. Priority Research Questions 13. What are the risks and opportunities for adaptation of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity associated with adaptation strategies and actions in other sectors? 14. How can adaptation options and strategies for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity be integrated into adaptation strategies in other sectors? 15. What are the risks and benefits of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to other sectors (e.g. changes to ecosystem services)? 16. How can novel freshwater ecosystems benefit other sectors (e.g. flood mitigation)? 17. How can existing monitoring networks in other sectors be expanded to establish long-term monitoring for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity?


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Table 4. Summary of very high Priority Research Questions for freshwater biodiversity. Goal 1. To understand climate change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 1. How do changes in climatic components interact with each other and with other stressors to affect freshwater biodiversity, individual species and ecosystems in space and time? Including the direct and indirect effects of: 1.6 Multiple interacting climatic stressors? 1.7 Multiple interacting climatic and anthropogenic stressors (legacies and current) including effects of climate change on terrestrial and marine systems? 2. What is the sensitivity to climate change effects of different freshwater ecosystems and species? 2.1 What attributes determine the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems and species to climate change effects? 2.2 Which freshwater ecosystems and species are most sensitive to climate change effects? 3. What influences the capacity of freshwater biodiversity to adapt to, and ecosystem processes to be maintained, in the face of climate change? 3.3 What range shifts and migration of freshwater species and ecosystems can be expected in response to climate change? Goal 2: To incorporate climate change adaptation into the policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. 6. What is the range and efficacy of existing policies and management approaches for conserving and managing freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change (including those focused on climate change explicitly and others)? 6.1 What are the barriers to and opportunities for improved adaptation of policy and management for the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change across multiple scales? 6.2 How can existing policies and management approaches be better aligned to improve the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change? 7. What are the aims, goals, objectives and targets of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? 7.1 How can the natural sciences contribute to the elicitation and development of societal values of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change? 8. What existing and potential adaptation options are available for policy and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity? Goal 3: To promote compatibility of adaptation strategies between freshwater biodiversity conservation and management and other sectors. 13. What are the risks and opportunities for adaptation of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity associated with adaptation strategies and actions in other sectors? 14. How can adaptation options and strategies for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity be integrated into adaptation strategies in other sectors? 15. What are the risks and benefits of climate change adaptation for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to other sectors (e.g. changes to ecosystem services)? 16. How can novel/hybrid freshwater ecosystems benefit other sectors (e.g. flood mitigation)? 17. How can existing monitoring networks in other sectors be expanded to establish long-term monitoring for freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity?

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5. References

5. References

Bates, B., Bunn, S., Baker, P., Cox, M., Hopkins, A., Humphreys, B., Lake, S., Willgoose, G. & Young, B. (2011). National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Freshwater Biodiversity, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 60 pp.


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5. References

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Appendix 1. Literature review: Australia’s freshwater ecosystems Appendix 1

A.1 Background Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are highly diverse, supporting a wide range of ecosystem functions and providing goods and services that tend to be disproportionately valuable with respect to the surface area they occupy compared to most other ecosystem types (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005, Ten Brink 2009). The distribution, character and condition of freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are governed primarily by the presence and quality of surface water, noting that many rivers are naturally intermittent. Human alterations to hydrology (e.g. dam construction) have resulted in significant changes to freshwater ecosystem structure and function across the continent. Furthermore, because of their position in the landscape, freshwater ecosystems are subject to the cumulative impacts of a wide range of other anthropogenic pressures (e.g. clearing, pollution) that occur in their catchments. Consequently, freshwater ecosystems are often considered to be among the most modified, degraded and threatened in Australia and the world. A.1.1 Key features of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity Key features of the Australian continent characterising its freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity include: Unique biogeographic history and high degree of endemism As the world’s largest island, Australia has been separated from other land masses for more than 45 million years. Australia currently supports between 7-10% of all species on Earth, a significant proportion of which only occur on the Australian continent. Over 90% of Australia’s reptiles, frogs and vascular plants, for example, are endemic to the continent. Many freshwater taxa in Australia exhibit greater diversity and endemism than anywhere else in the world (e.g. galaxiid fish, parastacid crayfish, phreatoicid isopods and candonine seed shrimps and diving beetles in groundwater). Relicts of ancient life forms with Pangaean and Gondwanan origins (e.g. syncarid shrimps, petalurid dragonflies, lungfish, salamander fish and Spelaeogriphacea) and Tethyan origin (e.g. in groundwater, Thermosbaenacea, Remipedia) are also present. Fish species diversity is relatively low (approximately 200 species.) compared with elsewhere but similarly has high levels of endemicity

at a continental scale. Many regions across Australia also exhibit high levels of local endemicity in freshwater taxa (e.g. Baker et al. 2003, 2004, Cook et al. 2008, Page et al. 2008, Bradford et al. 2010). Climate variability A wide range of climatic zones are present across the Australian continent including temperate, Mediterranean, alpine, desert, tropical and subtropical regions. Climate tends to be highly variable throughout Australia and is characterized by extremes, especially in precipitation, that fluctuate over seasonal, annual and decadal (and longer) periods. Extreme climate events (e.g. droughts, floods and storms) are particularly significant determinants of freshwater ecosystem structure and function. Flat topography and tectonic stability Major mountain-building processes and glaciation have not occurred in much of Australia for several geological periods. This tectonic stability has resulted in deep regolith landscapes dominated by palaeovalleys and a mosaic of different soil and vegetation types. Additionally, the Australian continent is very flat with more than 95% of its land surface below 600m sea level. This lack of topographic variability often increases the spatial impact of climatic extremes, such as heavy rainfall, flooding and sea level rise. Role of fire Fire, whether natural or human induced (both indigenous and European fire management) plays a particularly important role in the Australian environment in many regions. This is due to a combination of high temperatures, aridity and the abundance of sclerophyllous vegetation (Kershaw 2002). Fire affects the structure, function and condition of freshwater ecosystems directly (e.g. by altering vegetation canopy cover) and indirectly (e.g. by altering catchment runoff and sediment transport patterns). Knowledge gaps In many parts of Australia, particularly in remote regions, there is very little documented knowledge of freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity. Hydrology records, especially inundation patterns, and consistent freshwater ecosystem mapping are similarly lacking for much of the country.


23

Appendix 1

A.1.2 Major pressures on Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity face a wide range of anthropogenic pressures that vary between regions in relation to patterns of land use and settlement (Boulton et al. 2014). Additionally, the character and condition of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity in Australia today reflect, and in many cases are likely to still be responding to, numerous historical pressures. Major pressures include, but are not limited to the following: Clearing and land cover alteration Significant, broad-scale clearing of vegetation, especially deep-rooted woody vegetation, has occurred throughout Australia since European settlement. This has had important ramifications for patterns of runoff, sediment, salt and nutrient movement through catchments which have subsequently affected many of the major components of freshwater ecosystems including water regimes, water quality and habitat structure and dynamics. Hydrological alteration In much of Australia, especially the south-east, the greatest threat to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity today is widely considered to be the modification of hydrological regimes that has occurred as a result of river regulation, surface and ground water extraction and other water resources developments (e.g. floodplain harvesting). This has resulted in significant changes to hydrologic regimes driving freshwater ecosystem character and condition. Where impoundments regulate and store flows, temporary wetlands have either become relatively permanent or no longer flood (Kingsford 2000). Elsewhere, flows and water levels have declined overall with significant shifts in the frequency, magnitude, duration and seasonal timing of flow and flood events. Patterns of groundwater recharge and discharge have also been directly and indirectly altered as a result of human activities since European settlement.

24

Degraded water and soil quality Water and soil quality of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems are subject to a wide range of direct and indirect pressures as a result of human activities, including the addition of fertilisers and pollutants. Patterns of sediment and nutrient movement through Australian landscapes have also been considerably altered as a result of anthropogenic changes to land cover and hydrology, leading to an increased occurrence of eutrophication and sedimentation in many freshwater ecosystems. Altered hydrology, of both surface and ground waters, has resulted in further changes to water and soil quality including salinization and acidification due to the exposure of sulfidic sediments. Exotic species invasions Exotic plant and animal species occur in most of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems. Riparian zones are typically considered to be particularly vulnerable to invasion in comparison with terrestrial systems (Catford et al. 2011). Large infestations of exotic plants now cover many riparian and floodplain habitats throughout the country, especially in northern Australia. Aquatic ecosystems have also been affected by the establishment of many alien vertebrate and invertebrate species such as European carp (Olden et al. 2008). Fragmentation and altered connectivity Many Australian freshwater ecosystems are highly fragmented and isolated, both from each other and from their catchments and other parts of the landscape. In-stream barriers (e.g. dams and weirs), floodplain infrastructure (e.g. levee banks and roads) and land use (e.g. urban and agricultural separation of natural areas without wildlife corridors) limit the ability of materials and biota to move between habitats longitudinally and laterally. Patterns of vertical connectivity, between surface and ground waters, have also been altered as a result of human activities (e.g. groundwater drawdown due to mining and extraction for water resources).


Appendix 1

A.1.3 Management of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity The management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity in Australia is the responsibility of a diverse range of decision-makers and stakeholders operating across a range of scales and sectors. Individual wetlands are typically managed by both landholders and local, regional and State/Territory government agencies, with natural resources management policy mostly governed by the latter. Federal government agencies play a coordinating role for the management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity, largely through the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) and as signatories to the Ramsar convention and other international treaties, e.g. JAMBA, CAMBA etc. Australia has been undergoing a major period of water reform over the last few decades with a major aim of addressing degradation of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. This evolving process has seen a greater consideration of water provision to freshwater ecosystems and a substantial buyback of water from other users, now held by Commonwealth and State agencies, to manage for environmental objectives. Other key approaches to managing freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity in Australia include riparian restoration, especially revegetation, catchment management (e.g. managing clearing and fertiliser use), fire management, fisheries management, grazing management (e.g. fencing) and protected area networks.

A.2 Responses and vulnerability of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems to climate change A.2.1 Exposure of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems to climate change Freshwater ecosystems are often highly exposed to climatic extremes and climate change due to their position in the landscape in low-lying areas and at the interface with terrestrial and, in coastal areas, marine systems (Capon et al. 2013). All freshwater ecosystems are directly exposed to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, largely by carbon dioxide, that are the primary driver of current climatic change. Exposure to other projected climatic changes varies spatially across the Australian continent and with respect to ecosystem type. Beyond increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, the primary projected changes in climate of significance to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are warming, altered precipitation and sea-level rise. In each case, freshwater ecosystems are likely to be affected by changes in both means and extremes (Thompson et al. 2013a). Unless otherwise specified, climate projections reported here are taken from the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Climate Change in Australia website (www. climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au). Warming Mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are highly likely to increase in all seasons throughout Australia over the coming century. Although greater warming is anticipated in the inland than in coastal regions, future coastal climates are expected to be further beyond current ranges due to their lower thermal variability (James et al. 2013). The degree of warming will also depend on global emissions with increases of over 5°C projected in some regions (e.g. central Australia) by 2090 under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Extreme temperatures and a reduction in frosts are also very likely across the continent. In Alice Springs, for example, temperatures over 35°C may occur for over one third of the year by the end of the century even under an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5).


25

Appendix 1

Precipitation change Changes to rainfall are anticipated but are highly uncertain and, for much of the next century, are likely to remain within the realm of historic levels of variability over most of the country. It is very likely that winter and spring rainfall will decline in southern Australia (except in Tasmania) under medium and high emissions scenario due to increases in mean pressure over this region and a shift in winter storms southward. Elsewhere, wetter and drier futures are both possible although it is very likely that a greater proportion of rainfall will fall in more intense events (Whetton 2011). Increased frequency and duration of drought are also projected with moderate confidence for much of the country but especially southern Australia. In alpine areas, snow fall is also very likely to decline which, along with increased snowmelt, will lead to reduced snow cover (Whetton 2011). Evapotranspiration There is high confidence that potential evapotranspiration will rise as temperatures increase in all seasons. Sea-level rise and marine climate Sea level rise is very likely to occur around the country at increasingly faster rates over the coming century. The degree of rise will depend on the emissions scenario which eventuates and is subject to additional uncertainty in relation to potential melting of major global ice sheets. By 2090, Australia’ mean sea level is projected to rise by up to around 82 cm under a high emissions scenario.

A.2.2 Sensitivity of Australia’s freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are considered highly sensitive to climate change because the climatic changes to which they are exposed are typically also major drivers of their structure and function, especially where these influence hydrological regimes and water quality (Capon et al. 2013). Freshwater ecosystems are also very sensitive to the extreme climatic events, including floods, droughts and intense storms, that are expected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration as a result of warming, altered precipitation and sea level rise (Leigh et al. 2015). Climate change can affect freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity directly and indirectly as a result of interactions between specific climatic stressors as well as between these and other non-climatic stressors. In many cases, the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to climate change is likely to be exacerbated by the many non-climatic pressures already affecting freshwater ecosystems and vice versa (Capon et al. 2013, Capon and Bunn 2015), although it is possible that some climate change effects may be dampened by their interaction with other stressors. In either case, the cumulative effect of climate change on freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity is complex and difficult to predict. Nevertheless, we can make some broad predictions of impacts based on our current understanding of freshwater ecosystem and biodiversity sensitivity to specific climatic changes.

Ocean waters are also projected to warm by around 2-4°C by 2090 under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, Australian coastal marine waters are likely to become more acidic, especially in north-eastern Australia, and change slightly in salinity (i.e. +/- 0.1 g/l) with southern and north-eastern waters likely to become fresher and western, northwestern and south-eastern waters to become slightly saltier by 2030.

26


Appendix 1

Hydrological regimes Hydrological regimes, including runoff, soil moisture levels, stream flow and groundwater flow, are highly sensitive to changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and sea level rise. Reductions in rainfall, for example, result in proportionately much higher reductions in runoff and stream flow and vice versa (Goudie 2006, Jones et al. 2006). Warming can further reduce stream flows already affected by declining precipitation. A 1°C rise in temperature, for example, is attributed with 15% of recent declines in annual inflows in the Murray-Darling Basin (Cai and Cowan 2008). Sensitivity of hydrological regimes to climate change is likely to be higher in arid and semi-arid catchments where annual runoff can decline by as much as 40-70% as a result of a 10% decline in precipitation and a 1-2°C rise in temperature (Goudie 2006, Jones et al. 2006). In the Mediterranean climatic region around Perth, a 15% decline in rainfall since 1975 has resulted in a 55% decline in runoff (CSIRO 2009) with implications not only for freshwater ecosystems but also potential exacerbation due to competition between water resource needs and environmental requirements. In alpine areas, hydrological regimes will be further influenced by changes to snow fall and snow melt which are likely to result in reduced spring peak flows and greater winter flows (Lapp et al. 2005, Goudie 2006, Rood et al. 2008). Consequently, even in areas where mean rainfall does not change, there is a potential for hydrological regimes to be altered with respect to seasonality and the timing of flows and floods. (Chambers et al. 2013a, NCCARF 2013). In coastal areas, flooding may be further exacerbated by sea level rise and storm surge. Regional declines in groundwater tables have significant effects on water permanency, seasonal fluctuations, connectivity and species extinctions in groundwater dependent rivers, wetlands and aquatic cave ecosystems (Chambers et al. 2013b). Physical processes Physical processes underpinning freshwater ecosystems are subject to direct and indirect effects of climate change, particularly as a result of altered precipitation and hydrological regimes. More intense rainfall events will result in more erosion in upper parts of catchments as well as re-suspension of sediments that can be transported downstream. Large increases in rates of erosion are projected at continental scales (Favis-Mortlock and Guerra

1999, Sun et al. 2002, Nearing et al. 2004). Such effects are likely to result in changes to the physical templates of freshwater ecosystems, especially in alluvial systems and arid regions (Nanson and Tooth 1999, Goudie 2006). More frequent and intense flooding, for example, can be expected to cause channel widening. Coastal freshwater ecosystems are also likely to be subject to increased erosion rates as a result of more frequent storm surge. Water and soil quality Water and substrate quality in freshwater ecosystems are very sensitive to direct and indirect effects of climatic change. Warmer air temperatures are likely to result in warmer water and soil temperatures (Kaushal et al. 2010) and many biogeochemical processes shaping water and soil quality are strongly influenced by temperature, tending to be faster under warmer conditions. Decomposition rates are also sensitive to carbon dioxide enrichment and altered soil moisture. Under drier conditions, wetland soils may shift from sinks to sources of potentially harmful solutes (Freeman et al. 1993). Additionally, a drying climate may lead to the exposure of acid sulphate soils, in both coastal and inland regions, which can then release potentially damaging toxins. Furthermore, reductions in precipitation, runoff and stream flow may cause rises in salinity and the concentration of other contaminants in freshwater ecosystems due to a lack of dilution or flushing flows. In coastal regions, salinity is likely to increase also in response to sea level rise and greater incursion of marine waters due to storm surge. Fire regimes Fire regimes are widely expected to be sensitive to climate change with more frequent and intense fires likely to occur in areas subject to hotter and drier climates. Altered fire regimes may in turn influence water and soil quality in freshwater ecosystems as well as reducing riparian vegetation cover. Floods following major fires, for example, may result in proportionately higher nutrient and sediment loads.


27

Appendix 1

Biodiversity Freshwater biota are sensitive to direct effects of climatic changes as well as their interactive effects on hydrological regimes, physical processes, water and soil quality, and other disturbance regimes. Impacts on particular components of the biodiversity will affect other taxa and biological processes and these effects, in turn, will influence physical and chemical patterns and processes. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are likely to increase photosynthetic rates, growth and biomass of plants including aquatic and riparian plants with trees likely to be most responsive (Ainsworth and Long 2005). Aquatic plants might also respond to CO2 enrichment where this is limiting, although this is unlikely to be the case in many lakes and rivers (Cole and Caraco 1998, James et al. 2016). Most freshwater biota will be sensitive to warmer temperatures which can be expected to influence physiology, behaviour, phenology and interactions between organisms (Steffen et al. 2009). Growth rates of primary producers (e.g. phytoplankton and macrophytes) are particularly sensitive to temperature and harmful blue-green algae blooms are expected to occur more frequently in response to warming. Many life history processes of freshwater plants and animals can be associated with specific temperature cues, e.g. flowering and germination of plants, emergence and growth rates of invertebrates, spawning in fish, sex determination of amphibians and reptiles and migration of fish and birds. Freshwater biodiversity is highly sensitive to altered hydrological regimes, including changes to precipitation and runoff, soil moisture, stream flows and groundwater, because hydrology typically has an overriding influence on freshwater biodiversity at individual, population, community and species levels (Naiman et al. 2005, Perry et al. 2012, Capon et al. 2013). Altered water regimes can be expected to affect the growth, condition, behaviour and reproduction of individual organisms and their interactions with major consequences for community composition and structure (Sim et al. 2013). Changes in the timing, magnitude, duration, depth, frequency and rates of rise and fall of flows and flood events will all be influential (Bunn and Arthington 2002).

28

Altered water quality, as well as quantity, will be a major trigger for climate change effects on freshwater biodiversity. Changes in salinity are likely to be particularly important, especially in coastal regions where salinity tends to be a major driver of ecosystem composition, structure and function. Many freshwater and amphibian organisms are tolerant of specific salinity ranges with relatively few species capable of surviving under hypersaline conditions (Nielsen and Brock 2009). Greater erosion rates and re-suspension of sediments in response to more intense rainfall events may also lead to increased turbidity of freshwaters which will affect aquatic biota, e.g. by limiting light availability. Nutrient enrichment of water and soil is also likely to be influential, especially with regards to primary production (Boulton et al. 2014). Freshwater biodiversity is often highly sensitive to damage from storms. Strong winds associated with tropical cyclones, for example, can produce greater effects in riparian vegetation than in that of neighbouring terrestrial ecosystems (Turton 2012). Changes to other major disturbances (e.g. grazing, storm surge) will also be influential. In particular, freshwater biodiversity—riparian and wetland vegetation especially— is expected to be highly sensitive to altered fire regimes. Effects on vegetation will indirectly affect other components of the biodiversity by influencing habitat quality and food supply. Many climate change effects on freshwater biodiversity may occur as a result of changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems connected with freshwater ecosystems (Ballinger and Lake 2006), as well as changes in connectivity between and within freshwater ecosystems themselves. For example, diadromous fish (i.e. fish that migrate between marine and freshwater habitats throughout their life cycles) may be highly susceptible to climate change effects as they will be exposed to these in multiple environments (Gillanders et al. 2011).


Appendix 1

Non-climatic anthropogenic stressors Freshwater ecosystem and biodiversity sensitivity to climate change is exacerbated where they are subject to non-climatic anthropogenic stressors (including altered water regimes, eutrophication, acidification, salinisation, sedimentation, exotic species invasion, pollution) (Thomson et al. 2012). In fact, one of the primary difficulties is identifying the effects of climate change is disentangling the effects of multiple, synergistic and/or antagonistic stressors (Davis et al. 2010). Where climate change impacts are still relatively mild, anthropogenic stressors may result in far greater impacts (Dyer et al. 2012), concealing climate change impacts and complicating the capacity to identify and proactively manage for future climate change effects. A.2.3 Adaptive capacity of Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity have developed for the most part under conditions of high climatic variability and tend to be strongly shaped by extreme climatic events, including floods, droughts and fires. Consequently, many Australian freshwater species might be expected to have a relatively high capacity to adapt to climate change and for the ecosystems which they comprise to have high degrees of resistance and resilience to climatic extremes. Plants and animals may cope with climate change in situ, through acclimation, plasticity, behavioural change or genetic adaptation, or by moving. Shifts in the distribution of species may result in range shifts, expansions or contractions, e.g. to climate refuges that enable species to persist during periods of unfavourable conditions. Many traits of freshwater species that enable them to cope with current disturbances may also allow these species to persist under altered climatic conditions, e.g. persistent egg and seed banks (Capon et al. 2013). The wide ranges of many hardy plants and animals of freshwater ecosystems in inland Australia (e.g. river red gums) across multiple climatic zones also suggest a high capacity for such species to adapt genetically to changing conditions. At community levels, the inherent heterogeneity of many freshwater ecosystems might contribute to ecological resilience in the face of climate change as this can increase opportunities for migrating organisms to find suitable habitats and facilitate shifts in community composition at local and landscape scales that might be considered adaptive, e.g. towards more salt-tolerant vegetation.

Some freshwater species and ecosystems are expected to be less able to cope with climate change than others. Species in cooler, alpine habitats, for example, have little room to move in response to warming (e.g. mountain-top stream frogs and crayfish; James et al. 2013) and many tropical species seem to be closer to their physiological temperature limits than temperate species (Deutsch et al. 2008, Colwell et al. 2008). Freshwater species in other regions are also close their thermal limits and lack opportunities to migrate to cooler areas (Davies 2010). Species with limited dispersal capacity may be particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The inherent adaptive capacity of freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems is likely to be constrained in much of Australia as a result of the many non-climatic, anthropogenic stressors and high levels of modification and degradation to which they are currently subject. There is good evidence to indicate that freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater resistance and resilience to major climatic disturbances (e.g. drought) when they are less modified (e.g. have intact riparian vegetation; Thomson et al. 2012). Reductions in connectivity within and between freshwater ecosystems (e.g. as a result of dams or weirs) also significantly limit the capacity of freshwater biota to move in response to shifting climatic conditions. Even where movement is possible, there are considerable limits on the potential space available to species for recolonisation, especially in the densely populated coastal region of south-eastern Australia. The rate of current climate change is also likely to exceed the capacity of organisms to adapt or to migrate at a sufficient pace to keep up with shifting conditions (Visser 2008). A.2.4 Likely impacts Overall, climate change is expected to have significant effects on freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity across multiple scales, from microscopic to global, although these effects are difficult to predict due to the high levels of complexity and cascading uncertainties involved. Individual freshwater ecosystems can be expected to change considerably in their character, especially where hydrological regimes and/or water quality are significantly altered. The composition and structure of biological communities are very likely to shift in response to such changes and high levels of species turnover, driven by species losses, are predicted in


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freshwater ecosystems throughout Australia (James et al. submitted). Shifts towards more salt-tolerant taxa, for instance, may occur in coastal freshwater wetlands exposed to increasing marine incursions. Woody encroachment and thickening of palustrine wetlands, largely in response to CO2 enrichment but also altered hydrology, is also widely expected. In aquatic habitats, the size and sex structure of many faunal populations is expected to shift in response to warming and altered hydrology, with implications for food webs (Thompson et al. 2013b). Local and regional extirpation will occur amongst species unable to cope with climatic changes or migrate to new habitats. Where such species also have limited ranges, extinction may be inevitable. Stream frogs appear to be especially vulnerable to climate change impacts and are likely to decline in most regions. Diversity of freshwater fish is also expected to fall in much of the country (James et al. 2013). Increased spread of alien species is also predicted in aquatic and riparian habitats (Morrongiello et al. 2011). Furthermore, the capacity of ecosystems to recover from extreme climatic events, such as tropical cyclones, may be hampered by other climate change and anthropogenic impacts. The establishment of alien plant species, for example, may limit reestablishment of native plants following storm damage (Richardson et al. 2007). Similarly, the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to many non-climatic pressures is likely to be aggravated by the additional stressors wrought by climate change. At landscape scales, the distribution, diversity and connectivity of freshwater ecosystems will change considerably as a result of localised effects. Such changes may have significant implications for the ecological functions of freshwater ecosystems and their role in the broader landscape. Riparian ecosystems and other wetlands, for example, may become increasingly important under a range of climate change scenarios for their capacity to provide thermal refuges and mitigate a range of pressures including warming and increased erosion (Capon et al. 2013).

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A.2.5 Observed trends It is very likely that Australia’s freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are already responding to climate change, although many trends may be masked by high levels of natural variability and ecological responses to numerous non-climatic pressures. Examples of observed climate change effects on Australian freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity include: • In the Murray-Darling Basin, for example, the recent ‘Big Dry’ drought (1997-2009) and its effects are at least partially attributable to global climate change (Capon 2014). This drought resulted in a dramatic deterioration in the condition of freshwater ecosystems throughout the basin, but particularly in the south. Substantial declines of faunal populations, including invertebrates, fish and waterbirds, were apparent (Bond et al. 2008, Heberger 2012) and widespread mortality of iconic riparian trees (e.g. river red gums) occurred (Chiew and Prosser 2011). Re-wetting following this prolonged drought also resulted in environmental problems including large ‘black water’ events (e.g. flows with very depleted oxygen levels resulting from rapid decomposition of organic matter) that resulted in significant fish kills (Whitworth et al. 2012). Regional-scale declines in some taxa (e.g. frogs) also appear to be persistent following rewetting (MacNally et al. 2013). • In Kakadu National Park in northern Australia, an expansion of mangroves into freshwater and brackish habitats has occurred over the last 40 years (Williamson et al. 2011). Climate change is likely to have contributed to this vegetation change which can be plausibly explained by sea level rise, CO2 enrichment, altered fire regimes and hydrological change. Landward migration of mangroves into brackish and freshwater ecosystems in response to sea level rise has also been observed elsewhere around the Australian coastline (Rogers et al. 2006).


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• In south-western, Western Australia the temporary wetland water regimes have exhibited a drying trend for over a decade, both in depth and duration (Sim et al. 2013) attributable to a decline in rainfall and subsequent decline in groundwater levels (CSIRO 2009). Recent research (Sim et al. 2013) has shown that invertebrate communities have been able to tolerate climatic changes to date but there is evidence of some wetlands being completely dry for these ten years and terrestrialisation of these systems has occurred. • Changes in the timing of arrivals of migratory bird species have been observed in eastern Australia— as well as several range shifts of waterbirds— that are consistent with climate change responses (Chambers et al. 2005). • Mass mortality events of freshwater crayfish have occurred in south-east Queensland as a result of high intensity rainfall and flash flooding which may be partially attributable to climate change (Furse et al. 2012). • An increased occurrence over the past twenty years of toxic blue-green algae blooms formed by Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii has been observed in Queensland and New South Wales that is correlated with climatic change (Sinha et al. 2012).

A.3 Adaptation responses Adaptation responses typically aim to reduce the exposure and sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems to climate change or to enhance their adaptive capacity. Adaptation responses can be classified in a variety of ways, e.g. with respect to timing (i.e. autonomous vs. planned) or ecosystem services (e.g. Capon and Bunn 2015). Here, we highlight some key approaches to adaptation of policy and management for the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity and consider the compatibility of adaptation actions in other sectors with the goals of these. A.3.1 Incorporating climate change adaptation into freshwater biodiversity policy and management Much climate change adaptation action concerns adjusting current policy and management practices to account for the risks and uncertainties associated with climate change. This is likely to

involve planning at greater spatial and temporal scales and with a higher level of flexibility. The vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems and species is likely to be particularly important for guiding adaptation decision-making (Koehn et al. 2011, Chambers et al. 2013b). Climate change risks may also redefine management goals (Dunlop et al. 2013), guide prioritisation of investments or inform revised safety margins and may guide the design of monitoring and evaluation of particular policies and actions. Management of current pressures (e.g. clearing, grazing, pollution, fishing, weeds) is likely to be essential for reducing ecological sensitivity to climate change, promoting resilience to climatic disturbances and enhancing adaptive capacity. Similarly, protected area networks may become increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate. Novel approaches to reserve design and management are needed and could include spatially and temporally flexible protected areas, e.g. gazettal of new reserves in areas likely to be future biodiversity hotspots. Restoration of degraded and modified freshwater ecosystems, and especially their riparian zones (Capon et al. 2013), also becomes increasingly critical in the face of climate change. Restoration may involve physical restoration, revegetation or flow restoration. Under climate change, restoration practices may need to be adjusted to ensure success. Adaptation of revegetation actions might include prioritisation of target locations (e.g. Robson et al. 2013a) or planting of novel communities that are likely to survive and perform required functions (e.g. erosion control) under a changed climate or genotypes that are better adapted to new conditions (Rice and Emery 2003). Water resources management, and the role of environmental water, is particularly significant to climate change adaptation for the conservation of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. Adaptation of water resources management may involve dam reoperation or delivery of dilution flows to prevent salinisation and/ or acidification (Baldwin and Capon 2011, Watts et al. 2011). Removal of in-stream or floodplain barriers to restore connectivity in freshwater ecosystems may also build their adaptive capacity (Robson et al. 2013a). However, in some cases, management aims may seek to limit connectivity, e.g. to prevent the spread of invasive species, by retaining or even enhancing barriers.


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A.3.2 Identification and protection of refugia and refuges Refuges can be defined as ‘places in which components of biodiversity persist during periods of unfavourable climatic conditions in the surrounding region’ (James et al. 2013). Consequently, refuges for freshwater biodiversity across the Australian continent represent a diverse range of habitat and ecosystem types, operating over a range of spatial and temporal scales depending on the organisms for which they provide refuge, the disturbances they are providing refuge from (e.g. drought, warming) and how they provide refuge (e.g. via provision of permanent water, shading). Some authors also make a distinction between evolutionary refugia, as areas with long-term climatic stability, versus ecological refuges that provide shelter to organisms from shortterm environmental disturbances (Davis et al. 2013). Methods for identifying climate refuges vary depending on the scale and type of refuge under consideration. At very large scales, areas of future climatic and hydrologic stability may be indicative of high refugial value (James et al. 2013). In the arid and semi-arid zones, the identification of refuges at the large catchment scale could identify just one or two waterholes (Costelloe and Russell 2014) that may require specific management plans or actions (e.g. limiting water extraction, stock access or fishing). Other types of aquatic habitats, such as springs, may also require targeted management from additional (but related to climate) stresses, such as stock access. Potential future refuges may also be identified by modelling changes in species distribution (Bond et al. 2011, 2014a). Several such analyses often identify highlands as significant refuges for a range of taxa (Bond et al. 2011, James et al. 2013). Once identified, the protection and management of refuges essentially requires the same strategies described in section 2.3.1 above with regards to minimising exposure and sensitivity and promoting resilience. Management of connectivity is also particularly significant with respect to refuges as organisms need to be able to reach these and potentially recolonise from them for refuges to be effective in conserving biodiversity (Robson et al. 2013b). Such considerations may inform the prioritisation of the removal or modification of instream barriers (Robson et al. 2013a).

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A.3.3 Other adaptation approaches Hard engineering approaches The construction or modification of physical infrastructure represents a major approach to adapting freshwater ecosystems to climate change (Pittock and Langford 2010, Pittock et al. 2012, Humphries et al. 2015). This might involve the installation of works that enable delivery of environmental water to high value wetlands, as is occurring in many parts of the southern Murray-Darling Basin (Bond et al. 2014b) or to prevent intrusion of sea water (e.g. sea walls). Retrofitting of existing in-stream barriers for ecological objectives (e.g. installing fish ladders) is also a hard engineering approach to adaptation. Overall, hard engineering approaches are likely to be more expensive due to ongoing maintenance costs and are also associated with a higher risk of maladaptation and perverse outcomes (Barnett and O’Neill 2010, Nelson 2010, Bond et al. 2014b). Safety margins and regular reviews are recommended (Capon et al. 2013). Ecological engineering approaches Soft, ecological engineering approaches involve the intentional manipulation of biological communities to enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems (Steffen et al. 2009). These might include revegetation with non-native species that provide desired functions, e.g. planting fast-growing, high shade riparian species to mitigate rising in-stream temperatures (Davies 2010). The development or modification of artificial habitats to achieve ecological objectives may also achieve adaptation objectives, e.g. by providing climate refuges for some species. Artificial habitats with greater proximity to native vegetation and other waterbodies are likely to have higher biodiversity values than isolated ones (Robson et al. 2013a). Additionally, cold water releases may favour exotic fish species over native species (Rayner et al. 2015). Retreat approaches Retreat strategies involve the total or partial removal of physical infrastructure to allow freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to adapt relatively autonomously to altered conditions. This may involve the restoration of floodplain and riparian zones through changes to land use planning (Pittock 2009), the decommissioning and removal of in-stream barriers (Stanley and Doyle 2003, Robson et al. 2013a) or the removal of levees and infrastructure, such as roads, which are elevated across floodplains.


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Species translocation Intentional movement of species (or genes) to new habitats with more suitable current (or future) climatic conditions may be considered necessary where other adaptation options are not feasible. This approach is probably best suited to species with limited dispersal and adaptive capacity (Hulme 2005). Climate control For some high value, localised assets, adaptation approaches may seek to directly reduce exposure of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to climatic changes. This may involve, for example, the use of sprinkler systems or shade cloth (Capon et al. 2013). The use of cool-water releases from the bottom of large water storages to cool warm surface waters in downstream ecosystems (‘shandying’) has also been explored (Robson et al. 2013a). While this may have some potential to achieve ecological outcomes in theory, e.g. to facilitate movement of fish between thermal refuges, in practice this would require substantial investment to retrofit infrastructure so that such releases were possible (Robson et al. 2013a). A.3.4 Compatibility of adaptation initiatives between sectors The effects of climate change adaptation actions in other sectors, especially water resources development, pose a significant threat to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. Furthermore, many climate change mitigation actions also have the potential to affect freshwater biodiversity. Carbon farming and revegetation at landscape scales, for example, will influence patterns of runoff and ground water recharge and therefore stream flow. In some cases, however, adaptation and mitigation actions in other sectors may have the potential to benefit freshwater ecosystems. Flow releases from dams for irrigation, for example, may also achieve ecological outcomes. On the other hand, adaptation in the freshwater biodiversity conservation and management sector may similarly have pros and cons for other sectors. The uptake and success of adaptation actions for freshwater biodiversity conservation may also depend on adequate consideration of socioeconomic and cultural factors. Consequently, it is critical that adaptation strategies are integrated across sectors, and scales, to minimise perverse outcomes for both freshwater ecosystems and the human industries and settlements which depend

on these. Improved collaboration, participatory processes and integration of diverse values and knowledge are therefore essential.

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Appendix 1

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Appendix 2. Research prioritisation matrix Appendix 2

The criteria listed below have been used to prioritise the research questions identified in Section 4. Table 4 shows the results of this exercise.

Desirable 4. Potential for co-benefit Will the research being considered produce any benefits beyond informing climate adaptation strategies?

Essential 1. Severity of potential impact or degree of potential benefit What is the severity of the potential impact to be addressed or benefit to be gained by the research? Potentially irreversible impacts and those that have a greater severity (in social, economic or environmental terms) will be awarded higher priority. 2. Immediacy of required intervention or response

5. Potential to address multiple, including cross-sectoral, issues Will the research being considered address more than one issue, including cross-sectoral issues? 6. Equity considerations Will research priorities recognise the special needs of particular groups in Australia?

Research will be prioritised according to the timeliness of the response needed. How immediate is the intervention or response needed to address the potential impact or create the benefit? Research that must begin now in order to inform timely responses will receive a higher priority than research that could be conducted at a later date and still enable a timely response. 3. Need to change current intervention and practicality of the alternative intervention Is there a need to change the intervention used currently to address the potential impact being considered. If yes, what are the alternatives and how practical are these alternate interventions? Research that will contribute to practicable interventions or responses will be prioritised. Does research into the potential impact of the intervention being considered contribute to the knowledge base required to support decisions about these interventions?


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Appendix 2

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Acknowledgements

2. Terrestrial Biodiversity

The National Climate Change Adaptation Facility gratefully acknowledges the considerable time and effort invested by the writing team, and by many individuals and organisations in the development of this plan.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan | Terrestrial Biodiversity

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