from warnings to effective response and recovery - HazardsEducation ...

FROM WARNINGS TO EFFECTIVE RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PROCEEDINGS OF THE 6th AUSTRALASIAN NATURAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE GNS Science Miscellaneous Series 45

UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY, CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND 21 - 22 AUGUST 2012 Optional workshops 20, 23, 24 August

6th AUSTRALASIAN NATURAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE

FROM WARNINGS TO EFFECTIVE RESPONSE AND RECOVERY GNS Science Miscellaneous Series 45 University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand 21 - 22 August 2012 Optional workshops 20, 23, 24 August 2012

6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch Version 2, 3 September 2012 ii

BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCE Parsons, V.(Editor) 2012. From warnings to effective response and recovery: Proceedings of the 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference. GNS Science Miscellaneous Series 45. 74 p.

Parsons, V. PhD student, School of Psychology, Massey University

© Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited, 2012 ISSN 1177-2441

6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch Version 2, 3 September 2012 iii

ISBN 978-1-972192-30-0

OPTIONAL WORKSHOPS 20, 23, 24 AUGUST 2012 ................................................................................. ii Contents .................................................................................................................................................. 4 SPONTANEOUS VOLUNTEERING IN THE CHRISTCHURCH AND TAURANGA DISASTERS: WORLD FAMOUS IN NEW ZEALAND, BUT APPLICABLE ANYWHERE ELSE? .......................................................... 3 GIS FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT .................................................................................................... 4 DEAF GAIN: INCREASING THE RESILIENCE OF THE DEAF COMMUNITY THROUGH INCLUSION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING .................................................................................................................... 5 SOME EFFECTS OF THE CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE ON INSURANCE RISK MODELLING. 6 BUILD BACK SMARTER: INFLUENCING THE CHRISTCHURCH RESIDENTIAL REBUILD FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES ...................................................................................................................... 7 THE ROLE OF TSUNAMI VERTICAL EVACUATION BUILDINGS IN THE 2011: GREAT EAST JAPAN TSUNAMI, AND LESSONS FOR NEW ZEALAND ........................................................................................ 8 CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE’S VOICES IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKE ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 IMPRISONMENT AND DISASTER: A SCOPING STUDY ............................................................................ 10 MILTON 2060: A FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR MILTON AND THE TOKOMAIRIRO PLAIN .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 HOW HAZARD PLANNERS CREATED THE TOHOKU CATASTROPHE ...................................................... 13 CHRISTCHURCH’S COASTAL AND RIVER QUAKES ................................................................................. 14 IMPROVING THE RESILIENCE OF NEW ZEALAND SME’S ....................................................................... 16 SUPPORTING PSYCHOSOCIAL RECOVERY FROM DISASTERS: HOW AN ADVISORY GROUP CAN HELP INCREASE CAPACITY .............................................................................................................................. 17 RESPONSE AND RECOVERY BY MĀORI TO THE CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKES ................................. 18 MANTRAS, DOGMAS AND TOWING THE PARTY LINE ........................................................................... 19 THE CHALLENGE OF MAKING RAPID EARLY WARNING EFFECTIVE: A DECADE OF LAHAR WARNING RESEARCH AT RUAPEHU SKI AREAS, NEW ZEALAND ............................................................................ 20 IMMEDIATE BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE TO EARTHQUAKE IN CHRISTCHURCH NEW ZEALAND............... 22 BUILD BACK BETTER – IMPLEMENTATION IN VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE RECONSTRUCTION .................... 24 REFUGEE COMMUNITY PERSPECTIVES AND RESPONSES TO THE CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKES ..... 25

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JUDGMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARD BEFORE AND AFTER THE CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKES FOR CHRISTCHURCH, WELLINGTON AND PALMERSTON NORTH CITIZENS ................................................. 26 MANAGING FLOODS IN NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA ................................................................... 27 NATURAL HAZARDS AS SECURITY THREATS.......................................................................................... 28 RAISING THE PROFILE OF WILDFIRES AS A NATURAL HAZARD IN NEW ZEALAND ............................... 29 SAVING CHRISTCHURCH’S ANIMALS: EXPERIENCES AND PERSPECTIVES OF THOSE AT THE FRONT LINE POST-FEBRUARY 22ND .......................................................................................................................... 30 FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS OF DISASTERS (FORIN): A SHIFT PARADIGM IN DISASTER RISK RESEARCH .............................................................................................................................................................. 31 DIET AND RECOVERY: THE ROLE OF NUTRITION AFTER A NATURAL DISASTER ................................... 32 COMMUNITY-LED RESILIENCE IN URBAN AREAS: A TOOLKIT FOR MEASURING SUCCESS .................. 33 INSIGHTS FROM MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MULTI-HAZARD SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................................ 34 WHĀNAU TU, WHĀNAU MAHI, WHĀNAU ORA: NAVIGATING WHĀNAU URBAN RESILIENCY POSTQUAKE IN ŌTAUTAHI (CHRISTCHURCH)................................................................................................ 35 RESOURCING THE CANTERBURY REBUILD: ISSUES AND OUTLOOK ...................................................... 36 LIQUEFACTION IN CHRISTCHURCH DURING THE 2010-2011 CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE AND EVIDENCE FOR PALEO-LIQUEFACTION ......................................................................................... 38 USE OF EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION BY INDIVIDUALS AND HOW THIS INFLUENCES PREPAREDNESS .............................................................................................................................................................. 39 THE ADHERENCE PROPERTIES OF VOLCANIC ASH TO HIGH VOLTAGE INSULATORS............................ 40 EXPLORING THE ROLE OF THE MOSQUE IN DEALING WITH DISASTERS: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2005 EARTHQUAKE IN PAKISTAN................................................................................................................... 41 EMERGENCY SURVIVAL KIDS ................................................................................................................. 43 PLANNING VS BEING PREPARED ........................................................................................................... 44 POST-DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION: 80 YEARS AFTER THE NAPIER EARTHQUAKE ............................ 446 EVALUATING DISASTER EDUCATION PROGRAMS FOR CHILDREN ........................................................ 46 MULTI-HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN TECTONICALLY ACTIVE MOUNTAIN-FRONTS USING TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY AND GIS: APPLICATION TO WESTERN SOUTHERN ALPS OF NEW ZEALAND......... 47 RECONCEPTUALISING DISASTER WARNINGS: WARNING FATIGUE AND LONG LEAD TIME DISASTERS .............................................................................................................................................................. 48 THE WORLD AS I SEE IT’: EXPLORING THE CONSTRUCTION OF DISASTER IN THE VISUALIZED WESTERN MUSICAL IMAGINATION ....................................................................................................................... 49 GETTING THROUGH AND GETTING ON : CHILDHOOD AND CAREGIVER POST-DISASTER RECOVERY FOLLOWING THE CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKES OF 2010-2012............................................................ 50 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 1

AN APPROACH TO ASSESS THE COASTAL VULNERABILITY TO MULTIPLE INUNDATION SOURCES (COVER MAR) ........................................................................................................................................ 51 DYNAMICS OF BUSINESS RELOCATION FOLLOWING THE CLOSURE OF CHRISTCHURCH’S CENTRAL CITY ....................................................................................................................................................... 52 A FRAMEWORK FOR RISK-BASED LAND USE PLANNING FOR NATURAL HAZARDS .............................. 53 NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT TOP MODEL: INTEGRATING TSUNAMI INUNDATION MODELLING INTO LAND USE PLANNING ...................................................................................................................................... 54 ON SHAKY GROUND: WHEN SHOULD LIQUEFACTION BE CONSIDERED IN LAND USE PLANNING? ..... 55 CHARACTERIZING IN-FLOW SEDIMENT DYNAMICS OF LAHARS AFFECTING MOUNT SEMERU, INDONESIA ............................................................................................................................................ 56 CONTEXT AND NETWORKS IN ORGANISATIONAL RESILIENCE: CASE STUDIES FROM THE CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT ..................................................................................... 57 LIVING WITH VOLCANIC HAZARDS: THE VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF ESSENTIAL SERVICES TO INTERMITTENT VOLCANIC ASHFALLS IN MONTSERRAT, WEST INDIES ................................................ 58 SOCIAL MEDIA IN AN EMERGENCY: DEVELOPING A BEST PRACTICE GUIDE ........................................ 60 FINE GRAINED SEDIMENT CLEAN-UP IN URBAN ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING A DISASTER ................ 61 ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CONTEXT IN INFLUENCING DIFFERENTIAL VULNERABILITY LEVELS FOLLOWING THE 2004 SUMARTA TSUNAMI .................................................. 62 PRIORITISING PERILS: A CASE STUDY……………………………………………………………………………………………….64 POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TEPHRA FALL ON ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY NETWORKS: A REVIEW AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES .................................................................................................................... 626 PALAEOTSUNAMI DEPOSITS IN THE SAMOAN ISLANDS: CURRENT FINDINGS AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 657 GASTROENTERITIS RISK MODELLING FOLLOWING CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKES IN NEW ZEALAND: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF EXPOSURE AND MITIGATING FACTORS ................................................. 658 AUTHOR INDEX ..................................................................................................................................... 68

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Louis Brown, Director, Social Innovation, Canterbury, New Zealand, [email protected] Sam Johnson, Founder, Student Volunteer Army, Canterbury, New Zealand Billy O’Steen, Senior Lecturer, University of Canterbury, Canterbury, New Zealand

The Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 have provided the field of natural hazards management with an opportunity to reflect on the expected responses undertaken by agencies typically tasked with such events (e.g., Civil Defence, City Council, Fire Service, Military, Police Department, Urban Search and Rescue). Similarly, the grounding of the MV Rena off the coast of Tauranga in 2011 provides an opportunity to reflect on the expected responses undertaken by Maritime New Zealand, Regional Council and Department of Conservation. The lessons learned by those agencies will, no doubt, be valuable contributions to the field of natural hazards management and will inform practice in New Zealand and overseas. A less expected response to both disasters in the form of “spontaneous volunteering” (Gotlieb, 1974) is also a unique opportunity to contribute to the field of natural hazards management due to the scope and organization of it in Christchurch and Tauranga, namely with the Student Volunteer Army (SVA) and MV Rena Oil Clean Up. Importantly, these two case studies present several questions for the emergency management field, including: 1) What is the role of spontaneous volunteers during a disaster? and 2) Can its effectiveness in Christchurch and Tauranga be replicated in New Zealand and overseas? To answer those questions, these informative case studies of spontaneous volunteering focus on three, potentially transferable factors: 1. their use of new media 2. their management via an adaptive information technology system 3. their effectiveness as evidenced by unofficial and official acknowledgement and acclaim This presentation will feature observations on those three factors and their implications on the emergency management field from three different perspectives: Sam Johnson, SVA founder; Louis Brown, community organizer/University of Otago researcher; and Billy O’Steen, UC academic in community engagement. Particular attention will be paid by all three co-presenters to the context of each disaster and spontaneous volunteering response – could these have only happened in Christchurch or Tauranga during these particular events or are there aspects of these models to export to other locations and events?


Kate Burns, Tonkin & Taylor Ltd, New Zealand, [email protected]

This paper provides an overview of geographic information systems (GIS) for emergency management. It demonstrates how GIS can be utilised through each phase of emergency management through the use of recent examples. The paper discusses how the environmental and engineering consultancy firm Tonkin and Taylor (T&T) have utilised GIS technology to support their ongoing work with the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) and the Earthquake Commission (EQC) following the recent Canterbury Earthquakes. The GIS analysis conducted by T&T since September 2010 combines data from multiple sources and includes insurance information and land damage assessment data (ie field observations on liquefaction, lateral spread, rockfall and landslide hazards) for residential land in Christchurch. In addition, numerous datasets were provided to T&T by local and regional Councils and other organisations. The patterns arising from a GIS analysis of this data have been used to better understand the magnitude and extent of the land damage around Christchurch. This information has then helped guide decisions by CERA in undertaking the zoning of land into categories where the repair / rebuild process may (green) or may not (red) begin.


Emma Calgaro, Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales. Sydney NSW 2052 Australia.: [email protected] Kate Matairavula, Deaf Society of NSW Colin Allen, Deaf Society of NSW Andrew Richards, State Emergency Services NSW Melanie Rebane, Fire and Rescue NSW Tony Jarrett, NSW Rural Fire Service Dale Dominey-Howes, University of NSW

Risk management seeks to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of communities to the negative effects of natural hazards. To achieve this, communities work alongside local government authorities and emergency service organisations. A crucial component of risk management is having the information needed to respond effectively before, during, and after an event. But what if subsets of the community fail to receive the necessary information to enable them to prepare and effectively respond? The ability to receive warnings and instructions through traditional communication mediums like radio, TV, and directly from emergency workers is taken for granted in the ‘hearing world’, leaving the Deaf Community more vulnerable to risk. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) were the first in Australia to use AusLan interpreters in their live TV conferences to communicate with the Deaf Community during the January 2011 floods and Cyclone Yasi. NSW currently has no state emergency strategy to assess the needs of the Deaf Community in a disaster setting. To redress this, the Deaf Society of NSW has partnered with the University of NSW, the SES, Fire and Rescue NSW, and New South Wales Rural Fire Service on a project aimed at: (1) increasing the Deaf Community’s resilience to hazards by improving access to and provision of emergency management information; and (2) increasing the resources of NSW emergency service organisations to help them effectively assist the Deaf Community and improve deaf awareness for emergency service staff. Shared understanding and trust gained through engagement on both sides holds the key to enhancing community empowerment, ownership, and resilience.


Michael Drayton, Risk Management Solutions Inc., New Zealand, [email protected]

In the objective, financial world of insurance, models are used to understand the risk to insured exposure, with results output in dollars. The models measure the risk by describing possible events, quantifying their likelihood and calculating their consequences. For property insurers, the consequences may be the dollar cost of rebuilding. For life insurers, the consequences may be payouts to the families of deceased policy holders. Essentially the same models are used by emergency managers and local authorities to look at expected numbers of displaced people, duration of power outages and so on. Whatever the application, all model developers are facing similar research questions: What happened in Christchurch? What lessons apply only to Christchurch? What lessons apply elsewhere in New Zealand? What lessons apply elsewhere around the world? What other “unexpected” factors should we now expect? We discuss briefly the components of insurance risk models, examine the issues revealed by the ongoing Christchurch earthquake sequence and outline the research planned to improve the next version of our model.


Lois Easton, Beacon Pathway Inc. [email protected]

Beacon Pathway has been researching ways in which sustainable retrofit measures can be included alongside repairs and rebuilds of residential houses damaged during the Canterbury earthquakes. Because of the nature of residential renovation behaviors, combined with the large number of houses requiring repair (as many as 100,000), the rebuild represents the most significant opportunity to improve the performance of residential dwellings in Christchurch for perhaps the next 20-30 years. The kind of damage sustained in the earthquakes – broken chimneys, damaged roofs, ceilings or walls, broken or poorly fitting windows and frames, cracked or damaged floors or foundations – is exactly the time to consider improving the performance of homes. In particular improvements such as installing insulation (particularly in the walls), clean heating, and efficient hot water systems would ideally be undertaken alongside earthquake repairs. Getting earthquake repairs underway is a complex process and, even though improving home performance is commonsense, there are considerable barriers to including these improvements. In response to this, Beacon Pathway developed the Build Back Smarter project. It aims to develop and demonstrate a robust approach to including home performance upgrades into “standard” repairs without slowing down the city-wide rebuild process. The project involves working with the standard repair processes of insurers and their PMOs through a demonstration of ten homes in and around Christchurch. Following completion of the project, a plan to upscale the learnings to the wider residential rebuild will be undertaken. The paper will outline the methodology for the project and the preliminary findings from the demonstration case studies.


Stuart Fraser, Doctoral Student, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, GNS Science / Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand. [email protected] Graham S. Leonard, Volcanologist, Natural Hazards Scientist, GNS Science, New Zealand Hitomi Murakami, Associate Professor, Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University, Ube, Japan Ichiro Matsuo, Crisis & Environment Management Policy Institute (CeMI), Tokyo, Japan

Six years prior to the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11th, 2011, the Japanese government had developed guidelines for designation of tsunami vertical evacuation buildings. By the time of the event, many vertical evacuation facilities existed in the Tōhoku region (and elsewhere in Japan) and these were effective in providing safe refuge within the inundated zone during and for many hours after the tsunami. This type of evacuation facility is becoming more common internationally in areas exposed to tsunami hazard and the potential for implementing this type of strategy in New Zealand is currently being investigated by the lead author. In October 2011, reconnaissance-level analysis of evacuation preparedness and response was carried out using semi-structured interviews with local disaster prevention officials and emergency services officials. Interviews were carried out in seven locations in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. Through these interviews the authors investigated levels of local tsunami awareness, response to natural and informal warnings; style of evacuation maps; official warning dynamics; evacuation mechanisms and timing; and various aspects associated with vertical evacuation buildings including the designation process, public awareness, efficacy during the event and post-event review of facilities. There was extensive use of designated and informal vertical evacuation buildings during the Great East Japan tsunami. Many of these buildings were affected by strong ground shaking then inundated to the 2nd storey or higher but remained effective as a tsunami evacuation refuge. The most important considerations for designating vertical evacuation buildings are sufficient height in relation to expected inundation depth and reinforced concrete construction. Additional key factors in the success of a vertical evacuation strategy are: community engagement, building owner agreement, consistent signage, 24-hour access and evacuee welfare. The experiences and actions of communities in inundated areas of Tōhoku are extremely pertinent to tsunami preparedness activities in other areas at risk of tsunami generated by local subduction zone earthquakes. This paper highlights important lessons that should be implemented in such areas, with a focus on vertical evacuation strategies.


Claire Freeman, Megan Gollop, Nicola Taylor and Karen Nairn, University of Otago, Otago, New Zealand, [email protected]

In the aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake of February 22nd 2011 the lives of children and young people living in Christchurch changed significantly. Children and young people lost family and community members, their homes were destroyed or damaged, and who they lived with, the schools they attended and their neighbourhoods had drastically changed. Over 8000 children left Christchurch in the aftermath of the quake and were enrolled in schools all over New Zealand. Over time many children returned to Christchurch but for others the move was a permanent one. In this paper we present findings from research undertaken with children and young people who were affected by the February earthquake. One set of interviews was undertaken with children and young people who had left Christchurch and were enrolled in schools in Central Otago and Dunedin, two places with the biggest influx of children and young people post-earthquake. The second set of interviews was with children attending schools in Christchurch, who had either moved temporarily out of Christchurch and then returned or who had remained in Christchurch. Initial findings suggest children and young people experienced major disruptions in their lives from the earthquake. Their perspectives on the disaster and their subsequent relocation and transitions are valid and knowledgeable, but have not always informed decisions about their lives. We present the views of children and young people which we believe must be listened to if effective recovery at both individual and community level is to occur.


JC Gaillard School of Environment, The University of Auckland, New Zealand, [email protected] Fanny Navizet, Institut de Géographie Alpine, Université de Grenoble, France

So far it seems that neither academics nor policy makers have dedicated much attention to the fate of prisons and prisoners in disaster. Yet, anecdotic evidences suggest that both prisons and prisoners are particularly affected by disastrous events associated with natural and other hazards. In fact, the spatial, social and political forms of exclusion and marginalisation associated with imprisonment coincide with factors which make some places and people particularly vulnerable. It is the intention of this presentation to explore those linkages between imprisonment, marginality and vulnerability to natural and other hazards around three axes: a spatial form of marginalisation through the geographical, potentially hazardous, location of prisons and their secluded nature which isolates them from the outside world and assistance in facing hazards; a social form of marginalisation which deprives already impoverished prisoners from further access to economic opportunities, health resources and interpersonal relationships which have all proved critical drivers of people’s vulnerability; a political form of marginalisation which includes limited resources made available by the state and its agencies leading to poor, potentially vulnerable, and overcrowded facilities, along with prison’s lack of visibility in governmental disaster-related policies. This presentation draws upon a scoping study conducted in two prisons in France completed with sparse evidences available from the academic literature, government reports and media accounts. It further suggests ways forward for better integrating prisons and prisoners in disaster risk reduction policies.


M. Goldsmith, J. Payan, Otago Regional Council, Otago, New Zealand, [email protected]

The town of Milton sits at the centre of the Tokomairiro Plain, between Dunedin and Balclutha in Otago, New Zealand. It is exposed to flood hazard from the Tokomairiro River to the west and south, and hill catchments to the east. Milton has a history of flooding since it was first settled, and extensive flooding occurred in 2006, 2007 and 2010. During the 2007 event at least 80 residential properties were badly affected. This event highlighted the critical role that ephemeral channels or ‘swales’ play during flood events, by draining surface runoff from the eastern hill catchments to the Tokomairiro River. The Milton 2060 Strategy is a joint initiative of the Otago Regional Council and the Clutha District Council, combining the statutory functions and responsibilities of both councils. The strategy is intended to enable long term sustainable development in Milton and the surrounding area. The strategy takes a ‘principles-based’ approach to managing flood risk, and a set of principles based around the key themes of ensuring safety, planning ahead, and allowing sustainable land use have been established. The development of these principles has drawn extensively from New Zealand Standard 9401:2008 Managing Flood Risk. Land within the Milton 2060 study area which is susceptible to flooding has been identified through the innovative use of detailed LiDAR data. The characteristics of large flood events have also been determined (including depth of inundation, velocity of water at the peak of the flood, and length of time flooding may persist). Areas with similar land use and flood hazard characteristics have been defined, and a suite of mechanisms for controlling or managing flood risk within each of these areas has been identified. These mechanisms broadly follow the “4R’s” required by the CDEM Act – reducing risks, maintaining readiness for disasters, planning the response and taking recovery action. They include both council and community based activities, and have been grouped under the following headings: Personal accountability (readiness and response) Defining and protecting access and escape pathways Managing risks posed to and by community infrastructure and services Enabling relocation out of hazardous areas / redevelopment into safe areas Land use controls Ensuring adequate conveyance and efficient drainage Preventing alteration of overland flow paths Preventing the creation of new flood hazard, or the aggravation of existing flood hazard The Milton 2060 Strategy is intended to equip the community to understand and live with the effects of flooding, and to guide the style and form of land use development and redevelopment in a way that ensures that flood risk does not increase, and that over time the existing risks are reduced.


A process of community consultation commenced in April 2012. Our presentation will describe the feedback from that process, along with the techniques used to map waterways and swales using GIS and LiDAR. The presentation will also present the Milton 2060 Strategy as a practical application of NZS 9401:2008.


Gomez C., Hart D.E. Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, New Zealand Wassmer P. CNRS UMR8591, LGP University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, University of Strasbourg and Faculty of Geography, and Land Use Management, France

On March 3rd 2011 at 2:46 local time (5:46 UTC) a Mw 9.0 earthquake triggered a series of tsunami waves, which subsequently reached up to 40 m above sea level on the coast of Miyagi Prefecture. More than 720,000 buildings were impacted by the tsunami, with 109,862 buildings destroyed, 127,100 buildings partially destroyed and more than 480,270 buildings severely damaged. The number of tsunami casualties was estimated to be almost 20,000 people and the displaced population was still above the 300,000 mark one year after the disaster. Because of topographic constraints, Japan has concentrated 75% of its assets and 50% of its population on coastal plains. Therefore, extensive engineered protection systems have been developed: jetties, groynes and breakwaters, the later often submerged and away from the shoreline. The coastal protection infrastructure is often completed by harbour complexes encircled by large concrete sea-walls. In March 2011, these structures failed to effectively protect the coast and the population in, for example, Kamaishi City and Ofunato City. Semi-engineered bio-defenses also failed, like in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami in North Sumatra: coastal forest plantations were either flattened or their trees uprooted, providing further debris ammunition to the tsunami waves for increased destructive power. These engineering failures were accompanied by the failure of disaster plans, which were designed to work for young to middle-age populations that are able to evacuate dangerous areas largely on foot. This design was despite the proportion of elderly in localities along the Tohoku coast comprising between 15% and 28.5% of the total population. Many of these elderly residents drowned in their own houses, being unable to evacuate as planned. Japan is one of the most advanced countries in the world, where hard and soft engineering and population evacuation and planning solutions to tsunami disaster management have been recognized as a key government priority program. Given the scale of the tsunami impacts and, thus, of the hazard mitigation and planning failures, one starts to wonder if using concrete and knowledge walls in the face of natural hazards merely contributes a myth of population protection in the short term, and creates bigger disasters in the long term.


D.E. Hart, Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, New Zealand Coastal Society Chair, [email protected] M. Brosnan, C. Gomez; E. Kelland, Department of Geography, University of Canterbury; P. Wassmer, CNRS UMR8591, LGP University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne and University of Strasbourg, Faculty of Geography and Land Use Management, France

This presentation argues that coasts and rivers, past and present, have played as significant a role as seismic, engineering or socio-economic factors in determining the impacts and recovery patterns of the Canterbury earthquakes. In terms of past environments, the occurrence of spatiallyconcentrated areas of severe damage in the city centre, modern developments such as Bexley and in Kaiapoi township have been related to the development land that formerly comprised river channels and coastal wetlands. In terms of present environments, the earthquakes effects in Christchurch’s coastal and river areas have been extensive, complex and devastating, including effects on lifelines infrastructure, habitation, recreation, evacuation, ecology and industry. For example, during earthquake events many roads into and out of coastal suburbs and riverside areas were impassable, hampering evacuations, rescue and recovery efforts and ongoing habitation. Widespread sewerage system failures caused many coastal and riverside properties to experience potable water and sewerage infrastructure loss for over 12 months, raw sewerage discharges entered rivers, the estuary and coasts, and beaches were closed for recreation for almost a year. Subsidence and slumping has produced twice-daily, high tide flooding of the coastal reaches of rivers and lowered thresholds for fluvial and coastal flooding hazards. Subsidence, uplift and liquefaction silt contamination and smothering have triggered ecological shifts in saltmarsh and lower-river-reach biotic communities. Port of Lyttelton infrastructure suffered major damage, with recovery repairs and extensions of port facilities including the government fast-tracking a 10ha reclamation using 10% of the city’s estimated >10Mt of earthquake rubble. Around 42,000t of rubble was dumped on the reclamation site during the civil emergency phase of the first earthquake, with questions growing around the efficacy of rubble preparation to remove potential harbour contaminants. With every significant ‘aftershock’, coastal and riverside suburbs continue to experience disproportionate liquefaction rates and disruption compared to inland areas, where vulnerable structures have been cleared so that little ongoing damage results. In terms of earthquake recovery, government maps reveal a predominance of riverside and coastal suburbs with areas zoned red, where land repair has been deemed ‘prolonged and uneconomic’ and people are obligated to accept a buy-out deal to abandon their residences. The complexity of the Canterbury disaster reveals, on the one hand, that significant vulnerabilities to seismic events exist in our coastal and river planning and infrastructure systems. On the other hand, it reveals that seismic risk and engineering ‘solution’ information forms but a small part of that needed to build resilient environments. Traditional conceptualisations of natural disasters tend to 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 14

focus on risk factors closely associated with event triggers. In practice this can lead to faith in building code mitigation of earthquake effects and earthquake plans derived by professionals with seismic and engineering expertise. Instead, we need to reconceptualise disasters as the product of multiple, interacting elements of the natural and human environment, and to form a web of mitigation strategies derived from multiple natural and human environment elements. Given that New Zealand is a country highly prone to a range of natural hazards, with a population concentrated around coasts, rivers and volcanoes, it is imperative that professionals and communities take on board Canterbury’s lessons concerning risk complexity if we are to improve disaster resilience.


Tracy Hatton, University of Canterbury, Canterbury, New Zealand, [email protected] John Vargo, University of Canterbury, Canterbury, New Zealand Erica Seville, Resilient Organisations, Canterbury, New Zealand

Resilience, defined as the ability to thrive and survive in the face of crisis is a hugely desirable organisational trait for both large organisations and for SMEs. Resilience is not just about coping in the aftermath of natural disaster but also coping and potentially gaining advantages from ordinary day-to-day crises. What does a plumber do when his plumbing van is stolen over night? What does the café manager do when its oven breaks down? What does the taxi company do when it loses its phone system for 7 hours? Resilient organisations will have some combination of planning and an adaptive capacity which enables them to hurdle these obstacles and emerge stronger and potentially better. Many of the traits of resilient organisations are potential sources of competitive advantage not just in crisis conditions but in ordinary business as usual. There is a growing emphasis on resilience by both academics and practitioners but few resources exist to help small and medium enterprises actually put some of these lessons into practice. Larger firms may have risk or business continuity specialists to at least in part inform and advise on some of these issues, but the largest percentage of New Zealand businesses are small and without paying external consultants are not necessarily exposed to these concepts. I spoke to eight experts in the resilience field to find out what in real practical terms New Zealand SME’s need to do to improve their resilience and how that will benefit them not just in a crisis, but also in normal business operations. Interview questions were based around the existing resilience model developed by the Resilient Organisations group as well as expanding on this to capture the knowledge that is being gained in observation of Canterbury organisations following the earthquakes. The intent of the study is to produce real practical tips that are based on the theories of resilience but translate this into language and actions that are applicable and easily implementable for small enterprises. This presentation will describe the development of this study as well as present the resulting resource that is to be disseminated to business in conjunction with the September 2012 Shake-out exercise.


Sarb Johal, Susan Collins, Ron Chambers, Dianne Gardner, Bruce Glavovic, David Johnston, Lucy Johnston, Thomas J. Huggins, A. Nuray Karanci, Ian de Terte, Maureen F. Mooney, Douglas Paton, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University & GNS, Wellington, New Zealand [email protected]

Prompted by demands from the Canterbury earthquakes, The Joint Centre for Disaster Research (JCDR) formed an advisory group to support organisations involved in psychosocial aspects of recovery. This Psychosocial Recovery Advisory Group draws on evidence-based research findings to provide an academic contribution to policy and practice development. Practitioner experience within the group means that advice is based on scientific literature but remains firmly focused on pragmatic issues. This presentation outlines the definition of psychosocial recovery used by this advisory group to date, including the need to ease psychological difficulties faced by communities, families/whānau and communities, while building and reinforcing social, cultural and psychological wellbeing in diverse communities over the course of a long term, dynamic recovery and rebuilding process. We outline practical examples where advice from the group has been able to support policy and planning for psychosocial disaster recovery.


Simon Lambert, PO Box 84, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, Canterbury, New Zealand [email protected]

While Māori, the indigenous people of New Zealand, are often framed as being more vulnerable to disasters through their historical and contemporary marginalisation, this is not how they see themselves. The recent earthquakes in Canterbury severely affected areas of Christchurch that have significant Māori communities, compounding the difficulties these communities faced from an ongoing economic downturn. This paper presents results from research on the response and recovery of Maori to this major urban disaster. Statistical data, although limited in its capture of Maori experiences, shows considerable movement out of the disaster ‘red-zones’, especially for Māori children. Qualitative data from a series of semi-structured interviews shows the mobilisation of traditional extended family and tribal connections is a significant factor in the initial response phase. The recovery phase includes migration for physical and economic security, an extension of an entrenched mobility that includes Australia as a fundamental catchment for Maori seeking to improve their resilience.


Kate Lawrence, Community disaster advocate, Macedon, Victoria, Australia [email protected]

This presentation will look at some of the over-arching issues influencing government and citizen relations, and how this affects emergency management. In particular it will discuss how responsibility is given, taken and eroded away in and by modern democracy and the impact this has in the moments of a disaster unfolding. It will explore some of the factors contributing to the current state of affairs, suggesting a complex mix of government, media, enormous communities, over regulation and the adversarial system, to name a few. It questions the mountains of research into how people think about and respond to disaster risks, and asks why more isn’t done directly by and with communities. It argues for communities to be empowered not engaged, and government and emergency agencies to repeatedly say we can’t save you, so what do you need to save yourselves. It advocates for good, well crafted and delivered processes that see more than lip service given to community involvement in emergency management.


Graham S. Leonard, David M. Johnston, GNS Science, PO BOX 30368, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand [email protected] Harry Keys, Department of Conservation, Private Bag, Turangi 3335, New Zealand Douglas Paton, University of Tasmania, School of Psychology, Bag 1-342, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia Nicki Hughes, Department of Conservation, Private Bag, Turangi 3335, New Zealand, Waikato Regional Council, P O Box 501, Taupo 3351, New Zealand

Mount Ruapehu produces hazardous eruptions roughly every 10 to 50 years. The presence of Crater Lake and ski areas on Ruapehu gives rise to a potential risk from lahars. We focus here on eruptiongenerated lahars flowing through ski areas where the population at risk is transient and can change on a daily basis. This poses a particular challenge for volcanic risk management. The current Eruption Detection System (EDS) for Whakapapa ski area consists of continuous real-time telemetered monitoring of seismicity and eruption blasts. It has recently been upgraded to improve reliability and reduce false alarm rates. Once an eruption has been detected, siren tones and loudspeaker messages are delivered automatically across the ski area. The first lahars may reach the ski area within two minutes of an eruption, so public response (ideally to move a short distance laterally out of valleys) must be fast. A warning system is only effective if people take the correct actions in time to reach safety. In order to evaluate public response, simulated eruption/lahar warnings have been conducted once or twice annually since 2001, with staff and public behavior documented by designated observers. Public awareness surveys are also conducted in most years. Public education resources have steadily diversified in response to awareness surveys, now including posters, brochures, websites and large signs on ski lift towers. Two postgraduate psychology-based university studies have focused on management practice and staff training needs analysis. Staff training has been modified and improved in response and staff actions are now consistently observed as generally good in both blind (staff unaware) and training (staff aware) exercises. Research has shown increases over time in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, the recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk. Public awareness surveys were serendipitously conducted before and after an eruption lahar hit the ski area in September 2007. While key awareness indicators increased, still none were higher than 70%, even after such a recent real event with widespread media coverage. Despite improved public awareness and staff training, a persistent minority of the public continue to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take, failing to move effectively. 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 20

Between 5 and 52 people have been observed each year not moving out of high risk valleys after two minutes of warning. The reduction in people at risk in those valleys over two minutes has ranged from 27 to 94%, with an average reduction of 70%. The two lowest rates of correct action occurred in 2007, possibly due to confusion with the Crater Lake breakout lahar that had happened earlier that year (despite breakout lahars posing no risk to the ski areas) and possible complacency that the sirens must therefore have been only a test. Those people in high risk valleys who did not respond to the warning (but heard it clearly) were successfully surveyed in September 2011. They were a mix of groups and individuals. Of the approximately 30 people who were observed staying in high risk valleys after 2 minutes, we successfully surveyed 20. They were a mix that reported staying in lodges/clubs, in local towns and living locally. Some were from overseas with English as a second language while others were New Zealand-born. Contact with volcanic hazard education and experience at Ruapehu ski areas both also varied. These data provide a unique opportunity to explore the social and interpretive aspects of warnings and warning effectiveness. This diversity amongst the persistent minority of people who fail to move indicates that a wide range of education media and education contact points are needed. Future research will focus on the social psychology of motivating action through both modifying existing and developing new public education initiatives. The locations of education materials will also be explored in detail.


Michael K. Lindell and Carla S. Prater: Texas A&M University, USA, David Johnston and Julia Becker: Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University & GNS, Wellington, New Zealand [email protected]

This study examined Christchurch residents’ locations at the time of the earthquake; physical, social, and household social contexts; perceived shaking intensity; emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and behavioral responses. The questionnaire also asked about their expectations and response to a possible tsunami, their previous earthquake experience, earthquake preparedness, impacts of the 2010 earthquake, their demographic characteristics, and their home’s building construction. Data were collected by a mail survey based on a random sample of 600 households in the impact area who received an initial questionnaire, a reminder postcard, and as many as two followup questionnaires. This yielded 262 usable questionnaires for a response rate of 43.6 percent. The most common physical contexts were the respondent’s home (44.3%), workplace (31.7%), or a public place (11.8%). The household contexts were some household members absent and their safety unknown (51.2%), all household members together (26.4%), some household members absent but known to be safe (18.8%), and some household members absent and known to be in danger (3.6%). The social contexts were being with adult friends, relatives or neighbors (53.3%), alone (30.1%), with children under 18 years of age (15.4%), or with adult strangers (12.0%). Most respondents reported the shaking as violent (65.9%) or strong (30.2%), but a few reported it as less intense than these two categories (4.9%). On average, people rated their emotions during the shaking (Not at all = 1, Very great extent = 5) as minimally depressed (1.55) and annoyed (2.11), but moderately nervous (3.24) and fearful (3.40). They rated their risk perceptions during the shaking (on the same 1-5 scale) as having moderate expectations that they and their families would be injured or killed (2.28) and that disruption to their jobs would prevent them from working (2.40). They had somewhat stronger expectations that their homes would be severely damaged or destroyed (2.75) and, especially, that there would be disruption to electrical, telephone, and other basic services (3.60). In response to their situations, people stopped what they were doing but stayed where they were (38.0%); dropped, covered under a sturdy piece of furniture, and held on to it (16.7%); immediately left the building they were in (14.0%); tried to protect other people nearby (10.9%); tried to protect property nearby (5.0%); continued what they were doing before the shaking (3.1%); or pulled to the side of the road if driving (4.7%). The remaining seven percent engaged in non-recommended actions such as standing in a doorway (1.6%). Those who continued their previous activities were older (r = .24), had lower incomes (r = -.22), were more likely to be at home (r = .20) rather than work (r = -.12), and were more likely to have the household together (r = .26) rather than separated with at least one person’s safety uncertain (r = .16). Those who stopped what they were doing and remained in place had lower risk perception (r = 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 22

-.13). Those who dropped and covered were younger (r = -.14), had higher incomes (r = .17), and were less likely to be at home (r =-.13) than at work (r =.23). Those who protected persons were younger (r = -.13) and less likely to be at work (r = -.16). Those who protected property were older (r = .13) and more likely to be at home (r = .15). Those who evacuated immediately had lower incomes (r = -.14), less severe prior earthquake experience (r = -.16), more severe damage to their homes from the 22 February earthquake (r = .15). In addition, they were more likely to have separated households with at least one person known to be in danger (r = .17), higher levels of negative emotion (r = .16), and higher risk perception (r = .22). In summary, these data indicate that demographic, contextual, and emotional variables, as well as situational perceptions are systematically related to people’s immediate responses. However, the magnitudes of the correlations are small so further research is needed to better explain why so many people took inappropriate actions and to develop programs that guide them to taking appropriate protective actions.


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Sandeeka Mannakkara, Associate Professor Suzanne Wilkinson, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland [email protected], [email protected]

The term “Build Back Better” (BBB) has become a prominent term used in the post-disaster reconstruction environment. It signifies reconstruction as an opportunity to improve a community’s pre-disaster situation to increase its resilience to future disasters whilst also working on its social and economic recovery. This paper looks at various elements which have been identified which define BBB. The core BBB principles are: Improvement of Structural Designs and Land-Use Planning for Risk Reduction; Social Recovery and Economic Recovery for overall Community Recovery; and effective and efficient Implementation of the Risk Reduction and Community Recovery initiatives through coordinated Stakeholder functions, use of Legislation and Regulation, adequate Community Consultation and Monitoring and Evaluation to ensure the sustainability of ongoing recovery activities as well as disaster preparedness and response in the future. The Victorian Bushfires was selected as a longitudinal case study to examine how the BBB principles were incorporated in recovery and their outcomes. The information was obtained from conducting semi-structured open-ended interviews with professionals from a range of important stakeholders over a period of three consecutive years. The successes and shortcomings of the BBB concepts applied are used to identify lessons learnt and suggest improvements for BBB implementation in post-disaster environments. Key words: Build Back Better, Post-Disaster Reconstruction, Recovery, Victorian Bushfires


Jay Marlowe, Senior Lecturer, University of Auckland, School of Counselling, Human Services and Social Work, contact: [email protected] Anne-Marie Reynolds, Southern Regional Manager, Refugee Services Aotearoa, Christchurch, contact: [email protected]

Currently there is limited understanding about assisting settled refugee communities in the contexts of natural disasters. On 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011, the city of Christchurch experienced major earthquakes with thousands of subsequent aftershocks. These events have had significant impacts upon the refugee communities living in the Christchurch region. This paper reports on focus group interviews undertaken with the Ethiopian, Bhutanese and Afghani communities as part of a study conducted with New Zealand’s principal settlement agency, Refugee Services Aotearoa. The objectives of this study have been to ascertain the communities’ specific perspectives and responses to the earthquakes in order to better understand organisational implications for supporting refugees and assisting capacity building after natural disasters. With an emphasis on three key areas, participants from the three communities spoke about their experiences of the following: Participation: In what ways are refugee communities finding meaningful ways to participate postdisaster? Have past opportunities for participation and a sense of belonging (intra and inter – community based) influenced their decisions to stay or leave Christchurch? What do participant comments tell us about belonging in relation to being part of their wider communities pre and post disaster?


John McClure, Victoria University of Wellington, [email protected] David Johnston, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University & GNS(Science) [email protected]

Risk judgments about hazards are affected experience of the hazard and optimistic biases where people judge that they are less vulnerable to the hazard than other people. These factors were examined with the recent (2010/2011) earthquakes in Canterbury. Participants in Christchurch, Wellington and Palmerston North judged the likelihood of an earthquake before and after the 2010 Canterbury (Darfield) earthquake and the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Participants judged earthquake likelihoods for their own city, for the rest of New Zealand and for Canterbury. Whereas many Wellington citizens have long expected an earthquake, this may not be the case in Palmerston North. Thus this group is comparable to Christchurch citizens before the recent earthquakes, as many Christchurch citizens expected an earthquake in Wellington but not Christchurch. Christchurch participants also indicated their preparedness before and after the earthquake. Expectations of an earthquake in Canterbury were low before the earthquakes in all three samples and rose significantly after that earthquake. In contrast, Wellingtonians’ perceptions of the likelihood of an earthquake in Wellington were high both before and after the earthquakes, and Palmerston North citizens judged a local earthquake more likely after the earthquake. For Christchurch participants, the relation between their risk perceptions and preparedness was examined. Christchurch participants who suffered damage judged the likelihood of a future earthquake in Christchurch no higher than those who did not suffer damage. These findings are discussed in relation to the leading theories of risk perception. Key words: risk judgments; before and after an earthquake; local and distant participants Corresponding author: John McClure: [email protected]


Steve Opper, NSW Emergency Services, New South Wales, Australia [email protected]

In floods, emergency management (EM) is fundamentally about dealing with risk to life because there is little that EM can do to protect property on a large scale, especially in extreme flood events. Protecting life in floods hinges on one primary option, that being evacuation of the at-risk community. No other option provides the same level of protection but evacuation might not always be possible. Evacuation is much more difficult than simply telling people to leave and expecting them to do so. Evacuation is a complex time-dependent decision making and logistical process which must be thoroughly understood if implementation is likely to be successful. The New South Wales State Emergency Service (NSWSES) has been analysing flood evacuation in great detail since the mid1990’s. The presentation will discuss some of the key learning from this analysis and will also demonstrate the improving science used by the NSW SES in flood risk management.


Rita Parker, Visiting Fellow, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra [email protected]

Natural hazards have not generally been considered to be security threats but that has changed in the twenty-first century as there is a growing recognition that they have the potential to degrade the quality of life of nation-states and people. Natural hazards and disasters have a wide ranging impact not only on the safety of people but can also include unregulated population migration, border tensions, energy and food supply chain security, and critical infrastructure protection. Security challenges in our globalised geo-political environment include non-traditional threats which are blind to territorial boundaries and these now include natural hazards and disasters. Such threats are often high impact and hard to predict events which impact our region and threaten the security of states and the wellbeing of people. In my presentation I will describe the changing security environment in which natural hazards and disasters are credible threats to the economic and well-being of nation-states. I will also draw a distinction between those issues which require priority attention and response, compared to those issues which warrant a security response. These non-military threats have challenged scholars and policy makers about how best to deal with them. Response measures require different thinking and different responses to build resilience in the face of these new forms of insecurity. Within a framework of ideas I will explore some approaches to address these challenges which can contribute to improving response and recovery and resilience.


H. Grant Pearce and E.R. (Lisa) Langer, Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Christchurch [email protected] or [email protected]

When we think of natural hazards in New Zealand we tend to think of earthquakes, floods or volcanic eruptions, not wildfires. However, wildfires are another natural hazard we need to consider, as they are a naturally occurring threat that can have negative effects on communities or the environment. Although the number and extent of wildfires in New Zealand have been low when compared to many countries, they are a major hazard in this country too. Over 6,000ha of grassland, shrub land and forests are destroyed annually by frequent but relatively small, unplanned wildfire events. Every year, fires threaten homes, commercial and environmental assets, community wellbeing and the safety of rural fire-fighters protecting life and property. Emerging risks have been identified that will further raise the risk of wildfires and associated negative impacts on New Zealand’s future rural landscape and communities. These risks include increasing fire climate severity through climate change in many parts of the country as a result of increases in temperature and wind speed, and decreases in rainfall and humidity. An increase in fuel loads further increases the risk, driven by changes in land use, increased spread of wilding conifers and high country land tenure review. Coupled with this there is also increased human presence in fire prone areas, especially within the rural/urban interface, which increases ignition potential and places more people at risk. The levels of fire risk awareness in these communities are generally poor, leading to low levels of preparedness should a wildfire event occur. The likely future scenario of these combined risks is greater frequency, size, severity and potential impacts of wildfires. Cross hazards research and knowledge sharing is vital in New Zealand to increase effective natural hazard management. Wildfire researchers and managers have much to learn from other natural hazards researchers and Civil Defence emergency managers. Lessons learned from the response and recovery following the Christchurch earthquakes, for example bring critical messages to fire mangers and further the understanding of community resilience. Similarly, the knowledge gained from high frequency, low impact wildfire events provides useful information for all natural hazards management. For example, New Zealand Coordinated Incident Management System (CIMS) initially developed for rural fire is now used nationally by Civil Defence and Emergency Management organisations to manage the response to incidents involving multiple agencies. Case study research of communities affected by wildfire is also bringing learnings on the adaptive capacity and resilience of rural and rural/urban communities for fires as well as other natural hazards events.


Annie Potts, Associate Professor, Co-Director, New Zealand Centre for Human-Animal Studies, University of Canterbury. Member, National Animal Welfare Emergency Management Group (NZ Companion Animal Council rep).

This presentation reports on the responses of the animal rescue community to the displacement, injury, loss, rescue and rehoming of companion animals following the 22 February earthquake in Christchurch, with a view to strengthening knowledge on – and improving approaches to – the management of displaced and injured animals post-natural disasters; and evaluating the significance of familial human-animal relationships on reactions during, as well as adjustment and recovery following, earthquakes. From April to June 2012, representatives were interviewed from key animal welfare and advocacy organizations involved in assisting the community’s animals – and their human owners – postquakes. Agencies involved in the study included Canterbury SPCA, Dogwatch, Cat Rescue Canterbury, Wellington SPCA’s Animal Rescue Unit, Veterinary Emergency Response Team, Christchurch veterinarians and vet nurses, SAFE, Animal Aid, Pets on the Net and HUHA Sanctuary Wellington. Interviewees were asked to identify success stories in animal rescue management, as well as areas for improvement with respect to future natural disasters affecting New Zealand. Interviews were transcribed in full and subjected to thematic analysis in order to identify the main issues and concerns, as well as the positive outcomes, discussed by respondents. Drawing on actual transcript excerpts, these themes and issues will be introduced, and their implications for safer evacuations and emergency responses will be discussed.


Jane E. Rovins, Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk IPO, c/o CEODE, CAS B705, No. 9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100094, P.R. China  [email protected]

Efficient and effective risk management basically depends on the knowledge and understanding of the characteristics of natural hazards and social vulnerabilities, which are the fundamental factors resulting in risks and losses. It is commonly recognized that disaster risk management involves a broad spectrum of disciplines in natural, social, health, and engineering science. An integrated, transdisciplinary, and global programme titled Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) was launched by the International Council for Science (ICSU) in partnership with the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) to deal with the challenges brought by natural disasters, mitigate their impacts, and improve related policy-making mechanisms. Under the umbrella of IRDR, a Working Group on the Forensic Investigations of Disasters (FORIN) was developed. FORIN has proposed an integrative and systematic approach to study natural hazards that aims to uncover the root causes of the disasters through in-depth investigations. In this presentation, one of most important parts of the FORIN report, i.e.four basic hypotheses with regard to risk reduction, integration, responsibility, and communication will be introduced. This intends to direct risk managers, researchers, decision-makers, stakeholders to re-examine many factors that may prevent risks from evolving into disasters, or reduce more risks and losses. Those factors may include effective early warning, correct perception of risks, immediate and appropriate decisions for response, and other measures taken after events. This presentation will also bring in 4 FORIN methodologies which have been identified and utilised individually or complementarily as modes of analysis of in-depth investigations of disasters. Based on both the hypotheses and mythologies, the FORIN template is created as a shift paradigm in disaster risk research. This presentation aims to emphasize the value of FORIN by answering those following questions: How can FORIN serve as carriers of integrating science into disaster risk reduction practice? How the new knowledge and information on hazard and risks drawn from FORIN studies will benefit future practice plan? What should be more focused on disaster risk research in terms of decision-making before and after events?


Julia Rucklidge, PhD, CPsych, FNZPsS. Associate Professor, School of Psychology, University of Canterbury, [email protected]

The role of good nutrition for resilience in the face of stress is a topic of interest, but difficult to study. It makes sense that at times of high stress, the stress response and short-term survival take precedence over other long-term biological needs in order to ensure survival of the organism. The stress response is metabolically intensive and thus has a high nutritional requirement, compromising the nutritional requirements of other bodily functions. By adding micronutrients, the biological needs of the whole organism might be met. A 7.1 earthquake took place in the midst of research on micronutrient treatment of AttentionDeficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), providing a unique opportunity to examine whether individuals with ADHD taking micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) recovered more quickly from the emotional responses associated with the earthquake than individuals with ADHD not taking micronutrients. The results showed that micronutrients increased resilience for individuals with ADHD to ongoing stress and anxiety associated with a traumatic event. This study was then replicated in a sample from the general population, by comparing two micronutrient formulas and assessing their impact on emotions and stress related to the 6.3 earthquake on February 22nd 2011 in Christchurch, NZ. While all treatment groups in this second study experienced significant declines in psychological symptoms (p < .001), the formula with a greater range of nutrients resulted in greater reduction in intrusive thoughts and better sense of well-being as compared with a formula with mostly B vitamins (p = 0.05), with no group differences on other measures of psychological symptoms. Further, treated participants had better outcomes on most measures over 4 weeks as compared to a group of people not taking the micronutrients. These studies support micronutrients as a relatively inexpensive and practical treatment for acute stress following a natural disaster and support growing international research using micronutrients to treat psychological symptoms. Further research needs to explore whether these benefits extend to chronic stress.


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Jared Thomas, Opus Central Laboratories, PO Box 30845, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected] Kate Mora, Opus Central Laboratories, PO Box 30845, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected] Peter Walker, Hutt Valley Emergency Management, Private Bag 31912, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected] Kathryn Nankivell, Hutt Valley Emergency Management, Private Bag 31912, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected]

A key component of resilience is the ability for communities to be self-reliant immediately following an emergency event. This presentation outlines the process of engagement with key stakeholders of an urban community of 18,000 to facilitate the production of a community-led resilience plan that will allow this community to respond and recover from an emergency in the absence of CDEM assistance. Previous planning on community response and resilience in New Zealand has focussed on small rural or coastal communities which have involved a large proportion of the population. This project instead worked with a small group of community leaders (including local emergency services, community board, and medical professionals), providing a framework to self-evaluate their current level of resilience, identify their resource gaps and develop interventions to improve their resilience. A community resilience measurement tool was adapted from previous overseas research (Twigg, 2007) to provide a metric to quantify improvement in resilience through the engagement process. A toolkit for implementing this process in other urban areas is presented that includes key lessons for managing community engagement with representatives of a large population.


Anne Wein, Western Geographic Science Center, U.S. G.S., CA94025, [email protected] Adam Rose, University of Southern California, [email protected] Ian Sue Wing, Boston University, [email protected]

In the context of two natural hazard scenarios, we enhance our understanding of the economics of disasters by reviewing the models used and the insights gained. With partners, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed science-based hazard scenarios of a southern California earthquake “ShakeOut” and a California winter storm “ARkStorm” for use by emergency managers. Our objective was to estimate the magnitude of the business interruption losses relative to the expected business-asusual (BAU) trajectory of economic growth. The shocks to the economy were derived from property damages, agricultural losses, and various lifeline service outages. For the ShakeOut scenario, we adapted an Input-Output (I-O) model of the eight-county Southern California economy to 1) apply economic output losses associated with 2008US$113 billion of earthquake property damages, 2) represent time periods of restoration and reconstruction, and 3) adjust for economic resilience strategies implemented at micro and meso-economic scales. The estimated 2008US$68 billion of business interruption losses accrued over 960 days and a 4% reduction of annual gross regional output occurred in the first year. The two largest sources of economic losses were water distribution outages and building damages from fire following earthquake. Shortcomings of the analysis involve double-counting of impacts among economic shocks and between stock and flow losses. A further limitation of the I-O approach is the absence of a fully developed market mechanism (via substitution of production factors, in particular). For the ARkStorm scenario, we addressed this market response issue with the construction of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the California economy. For this scenario, the results showed that the economic impacts of building damages from flooding overwhelm the productivity losses from building damages from wind, agricultural losses, and lifeline service reductions. For an estimated 2007US$353.6 billion of property damages, the reduction in California’s GDP using a 5% discount rate over a 5-year period ranged from $128 billion to $329 billion (a 1.5-3.8% reduction of the BAU GDP trajectory) depending on assumptions about the amount, source, and timing of reconstruction investment. A challenge for CGE modeling occurs at the engineering-economic interface regarding the use of damage assessments. Future research topics include the effects of a disaster on GDP growth rates versus levels of productivity and the extent of technological upgrading during reconstruction.


Dr. Paul Whitinui, Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha: University of Canterbury. Aotahi: School of Māori and Indigenous Studies, [email protected]

Today millions of indigenous peoples are seriously affected by the growing number of natural disasters occurring frequently around the globe. On February 22nd 2011, Christchurch, New Zealand experienced the most devastating earthquake ever recorded in our country’s history- resulting in the loss of 186 lives. In 2009, a national strategy called Whānau Ora was conceived to enable whānau to take greater responsibility for their own health and wellbeing. Seemingly, assisting whānau attempts to ‘bounce’ back from this life-changing event would appear synonymous with any co-ordinated community approach. However, building resilient and prepared communities underpinned by a whānau perspective is less clear. As an ‘outsider’ whānau, positions on what constitutes a culturally responsive approach to the collective needs and aspirations of a ‘resilient’ whānau living in Christchurch, affords attention. Indeed, addressing issues of equity, as it relates to whānau being able to navigate their own futures in a post-disaster urban environment would be of interest to many already disadvantaged, vulnerable and disaffected. In response, a culturally responsive framework enabling whānau to protect, problem-solve, provide and heal in a time of need are considered as key attributes of enabling whānau to be further resilient in the face of unprecedented change and uncertainty.


Yan Chang, Research Fellow, the University of Auckland, [email protected] Suzanne Wilkinson, Corresponding author, Associate Professor, the University of Auckland, [email protected] Erica Seville, Programme Leader, Resilient Organisations, [email protected] Regan Potangaroa, Associate Professor, Unitec, Auckland, [email protected]

The Canterbury earthquake sequence and the massive reconstruction demand highlighted the criticality of the construction industry to the Christchurch city’s recovery and the New Zealand economy. The recovery work since the Darfield earthquake on September 4, 2010 has been testing the construction sector’s response in terms of resources and capacity. Based on in-field surveys and interviews, this study examined the recovery process from the Canterbury earthquakes with respect to resourcing issues in key recovery sectors. The findings show that to this point material shortages are not evident but there are resourcing issues mostly concentrated on human resources. The study identified the resource issues common to the rebuilding construction organisations across sectors, such as, housing repair, horizontal infrastructure restoration, demolition of commercial buildings. Varied impacts from the shortages of certain resources were felt by different organisations and sectors. Although efforts were made to reduce these impacts, this research highlighted the importance of information sharing across industry, standardisation of process, mechanism of securing resources, and prioritisation of rebuilding works at a national level to increase the quantity and quality available to recovery in Christchurch.


Poster abstracts


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S. Bastin, K. Bassett, M. Quigley, & T. Wilson, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand. [email protected]

The liquefaction of late Holocene fluvial and estuarine deposits during the 2010 Darfield M w 7.1 earthquake and subsequent aftershocks caused major land and infrastructure damage in eastern Christchurch. A site in Avonside that liquefied eight different times in earthquakes with PGA ≥ 0.1 was chosen for detailed investigation. Trenching of surface ejecta from the June 13 (2 events) and Dec 23 (2 events) earthquakes revealed four distinct fine-sand ejecta packets overlain by silt drapes, indicating that these different liquefaction episodes could be preserved in the geologic record. Subsurface trenching investigations revealed that the surface vents were fed by a sub-vertical feeder dyke that was re-activated during each liquefaction episode. This implies that near surface (7m/s for a measurable amount of ash to be removed. The results from laboratory testing can be used to estimate the volume of ash that will adhere to an insulator if eruption mechanisms are known.


Abdur Rehman Cheema, Massey University, [email protected] Regina Scheyvens, Massey University, [email protected] Bruce Glavovic, Massey University, [email protected] Imran Muhammad, Massey University, [email protected]

Introduction This research explored the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in disaster management by documenting and analysing its role in rural settings in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. Two research questions The first examined the role of the mosque in relation to key actors from the state, civil society and private sector during response, relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake. The second explored the potential roles of the mosque in similar situations in the future.

Means of transportation in the study area

Methodology Using qualitative research methods and a case study design (in three villages of district Mansehra, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province), this study analysed primary data collected throughout five months of fieldwork (in 2009 and 2010). Results The mosque served as an entry door, facilitating access to communities for private, government, local, national and international organisations during the earthquake response, relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation phases. It A community meeting in the mosque continued to function as surviving community men gathered to pray on the rubble or in the open and the mosque served as the collection point of the community. Women did not benefit from the mosque, as a physical place, because of social, cultural and religious limitations in communities. However, the mosque’s institutional support was critical for 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 41

engagement of women in other culturally and socially appropriate development and disaster risk reduction activities.


Maureen Coomer, GNS Science, GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand [email protected] Ruth Tarrant, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University/GNS Science, PO Box 756, Wellington, [email protected] Miriam Hughes, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University/GNS Science, PO Box 756, Wellington, [email protected] Victoria Johnson, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University/GNS Science, PO Box 756, Wellington, [email protected]

The Wellington region is an extremely hazardous place to live due to the range of potential natural hazard events that could occur in the region e.g. flood, earthquake, landslide, ashfall, tsunami, coastal storm surge. Children and their families have been identified as especially vulnerable to the effects of hazards. An earthquake response and evacuation exercise was observed and evaluated in a fully occupied primary school in Wellington, New Zealand. The observed school has a welldeveloped protocol for keeping the pupils as safe as possible in the event of an earthquake. The purpose of this evaluation by practitioners and research personnel in emergency management, was twofold: to observe a school emergency evacuation in progress; to suggest modifications to the exercise by identifying issues for best practice in school earthquake preparedness and evacuation. Research aimed at assisting children, youth, and families cope more effectively with the effects of disasters is being undertaken in the Wellington region, and key lessons emerging from the present case study will contribute to informing best practice for earthquake safety in New Zealand schools.


Ahmad Ghandour, Otago Business School / University of Otago, Otago, New Zealand [email protected]

In an attempt to examine the key aspects that explain business continuity plan (BCP), I have initiated a discussion among expert practitioners in a LinkedIn group. Analyzing the shared and common expressions of collective experience among business continuity (BC) experts revealed that a BCP has two aspects: being prepared and planning. While the “planning” aspect revealed two clusters interpreted as the process and the exercise of the plan respectively, the “prepared” aspect of the plan is a single cluster interpreted as the planning effectiveness as in the Figure Below

BCP is Planning: It is the activity element of the BCP that is required not only to create a plan but also to test in an on-going basis. Creating a plan requires sufficient detail regarding the deployment of appropriate strategies for the resumption of operations according to predetermined priorities. Regular exercising and testing keep the BCP fresh and real Prepared: It is the outcome of the planning activity that makes the organisation ready to deal with adverse events. 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 44

POST-DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION: 80 YEARS AFTER THE NAPIER EARTHQUAKE Mischa Hill, School of Environment, The University of Auckland. Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142. Email: [email protected] JC Gaillard, School of Environment, The University of Auckland. Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142. Email: [email protected] The awareness of disaster risk has increased remarkably over the past few decades. One of the most poignant events in New Zealand’s history was the devastating earthquake that rocked Napier and the Hawke’s Bay region over the summer of 1931. The earthquake was not only an important event in local history but also one which has shaped contemporary Napier. As one of the worst events in New Zealand’s early days, the quake also fostered much attention towards the reality of disasters in the country. The reconstruction effort in Napier, well known for its Art Deco flair, provided many difficulties and successes including, the development of policies post-disaster, and the implications of the event for contemporary disaster risk reduction (DRR) for the region and New Zealand. In Napier, these include a safer lay-out of the central business district, building architecture and other infrastructure to prevent natural hazards. At the national level, the contribution of the 1931 disaster encompasses building standards, insurance regimes and scientific advancement. The success of the rebuilding of Napier revolved around the integration of local and regional interests. The decentralisation of the decision making process to incorporate short and long term goals was also essential for the sustainability and future of the city to operate well beyond its predisaster potential. The longevity of the policies developed post-disaster have however not all been sustained with regards to recent developments in scientific and engineering knowledge as well as current trends in the practice of DRR. The case of Napier shows that in this way DRR is continually evolving and that such changes in policy and practice should be integrated in current and post-disaster reconstruction. In that sense, the earthquake in Santa Barbara, California, six years prior to the Hawke’s Bay earthquake was an important platform for informing the reconstruction of Napier. As such Napier now has the ability to give important lessons for Christchurch in the aftermath of the 2011 disaster. This study relies on semi-structured interviews with key informants of DRR and local development in Napier as well as archival and policy materials which proved useful to get insights into the life and politics of the era. The study also draws upon secondary academic materials such as journal articles and conference proceedings.


Victoria A. Johnson, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University & GNS, Wellington, New Zealand [email protected]

The proposed research aims to explore how the design and implementation of evaluations for disaster education programs can support public policy decisions. Although many hazards education programs have been developed and implemented with the aim of improving knowledge and protective behaviours in children, a very limited number of them have been evaluated for either effectiveness or feasibility. Drawing upon previous research and evaluations of safety-oriented educational programs for children, this project will evaluate a series of disaster education programs in schools and other child congregate care settings. This project will specifically address challenges in measuring knowledge and behavioural outcomes among children, particularly to prepare for highrisk, low-probability events like disasters. It will also explore methodological approaches to evaluating disaster education programs for children under public policy constraints such as time, institutional buy-in and funding.


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Theo Kritikos, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand [email protected] Tim Davies, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand [email protected] Thomas Wilson, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. [email protected]

Tectonically active mountain-front regions are highly dynamic. The natural processes responsible for landscape evolution make the transitional geomorphology between the mountains and plains potentially hazardous to the increasing human developments and land-use in these areas. Despite progress in natural hazards research over the last two decades, communities located in mountainfront regions are still threatened by a range of potential hazards which cannot be effectively predicted. Independent assessments of single processes might lead to an underestimation of the real hazard potential in highly dynamic landscapes, as the possible interactions between geomorphic processes, and their cascade effects, are often neglected. An approach incorporating the interdependence of geomorphic processes is essential in order to effectively reduce risk and enhance community resilience in these environments. Such an approach is required in the western Southern Alps of New Zealand. The area is located along an actively deforming plate boundary and is subject to high rates of uplift, erosion and orographically-enhanced precipitation that drive the dominant geomorphic processes and consequent hazards. Today, the region is an increasingly popular tourist attraction for both domestic and international visitors, significantly increasing the total risk in the area. This research combines tectonic geomorphology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop a framework for multi-hazard assessment in highly dynamic environments. Initially, geomorphic analysis is carried out in the study area in order to investigate the interplay between tectonic and surface processes shaping the landscape. Widely applied geomorphological techniques are implemented in a GIS environment to identify the dominant geomorphic processes, their spatial distribution and their interdependent effects. At the second stage, GIS-based landslide and river flood susceptibility models are developed and corresponding maps are produced for the study area. The potential runout zones of landslides are modelled and their interactions with the drainage network are investigated in order to incorporate the impact of landslides on catchment hydrology and river flooding. The identification of river reaches that are susceptible to deposition of massmovement material is a critical step of the modelling approach, as it indicates potential landslidedam locations and links the landslide and river flood susceptibility models. The effect of seismicity on slope stability is also incorporated into the analysis as it is a major factor for landslide initiation in the study area. Finally, the results are combined and used in a regional scale multi-hazard assessment, in order to inform pre-event land-use planning. 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 47

Brenda Mackie, Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre., Canterbury University, Affiliated with Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, Wellington. [email protected]

This paper suggests that a re-examination of warning fatigue in the context of long lead time (LLT) disaster scenarios is needed when exploring ways that people respond to disaster warnings. LLT disasters such as pandemics, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and bushfires require the public to incorporate long-term risk into their daily lives whilst maintaining a level of vigilance. Warning fatigue or ‘Cry-wolf’ syndrome describes the cynicism or apathy that anecdotally is thought to result from being ‘over-warned’. There is an assumption by emergency agencies that warning fatigue is a problem, however most of the relevant literature calls the phenomenon a ‘myth’ whilst at the same time acknowledging that false alarms have been observed to lead to public desensitization, cynicism, emotional adaptation and normalization of risk. Without exception, research into the ‘myth’ of warning fatigue has been done in the context of weather-specific ‘short lead time’ (SLT) disasters. Literature acknowledges the crucial relationship between warning time, preparedness and response yet there is a dearth of empirical research examining warnings in the context of LLT disasters. Residents of bushfire-vulnerable Victoria and Tasmania identified warning fatigue as a major contributor to personal decision-making prior to disaster events, providing the imperative for this research. All disasters are not the same and therefore, in order to identify issues associated with warnings response, frame and communicate hazard warnings in ways that reduce the risk of warning fatigue and community complacency, SLT and LLT disaster scenarios need to be differentiated.


Alice McSherry, School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142. [email protected] JC Gaillard, School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142. [email protected]

Disasters have increasingly caught the attention of Western media in the last few decades with many avenues of mass media frequently depicting inevitable environmental catastrophe and doom. In particular, the advent of the edited music video clip has become an exceptionally poignant medium for such display of disaster. Made popular first via the mainstreaming of TV channels such as MTV and later through websites such as YouTube, short length edited music videos have become a pervasive and interesting means of communicating messages to the masses, and this has, without a doubt, affected the communication process of knowledge about disasters. Currently, there are a myriad of music videos, produced by a variety of stakeholders, which use, edit and construct imagery associated with disaster to invoke and represent themes of on the one hand, fear of ‘disaster’, and on the other, a sense of separation of the West from the ‘helpless’ and ‘vulnerable’ of disaster-prone and stricken regions that are usually synonymous with the so-called ‘developing’ world. In this way, the production and dissemination of music videos can provide us, whether as lay consumers of mass media or as those in the disaster policy arena, with an insight into how disaster is in fact constructed and visualized in the Western imagination. This poster aims to deliver a snapshot of further research that is currently underway concerning the construction of the prevailing Western conceptualizations of disaster and vulnerability via the medium of music video. It is undeniable that before making wider policy decisions, it is of utmost importance to first acknowledge and then examine how we have come to ‘see’, understand and communicate the matter at hand – perhaps something as mundane and ubiquitous as the phenomenon of music video does in fact hold the answer.


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Maureen Mooney, Joint Centre of Disaster Research, Massey University and GNS, Wellington, New Zealand [email protected]

Adversity has definite effects on a population. Past research tended to focus on vulnerability and trauma. In recent decades, positive psychology has explored well-being, and enhanced capacities to adapt. This study hopes to clarify what factors and processes, both intra and inter-personal, promote positive coping, adaptation, and well-being in those affected during a recovery process. The specific focus is on children and youth. Minimal research has attempted to examine how models of adaptation, resilience and possible post-adversity growth within adults, may be applicable to young people. Method: A repeated measures approach, will examine resilience and post-adversity growth processes over an eighteen month period. The first data collection is near completion. Measurement used includes self-report questionnaires from children, parents and teachers and semi-structured interviews with 5, 9 and 15year olds as well as their parents, teachers and Principals of the five schools involved in the Christchurch arm of study. The analysis gives an insight into the on-going recovery process. It is hoped that the results emerging will instruct and streamline future preparation for adversity and increase informed support to children and adults recovering from negative life experiences, including disasters.


F. Dall’Osso, Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia, Med Ingegneria S.r.l., via P. Zangheri 16, 48100 Ravenna, Italy. [email protected] G. Withycombe, S. Summerhayes, Sydney Coastal Councils Group Inc., Level 14, 456 Kent Street, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia D. Dominey-Howes, Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

Australian coastal zones are exposed to the effects of sea level rise and extreme inundation events. In NSW, the Australian Industry Group (AIG) has estimated that more than 200,000 properties are classified as “at risk” from coastal hazards, including storm surges, river floods and tsunamis. Climate change is expected to increase the potential impact of these hazards. Decision makers need innovative tools to assess the vulnerability of coastal buildings and infrastructure, calculate and compare probable maximum losses associated with different inundation scenarios and plan suitable mitigation measures. Existing methods generally estimate the vulnerability to single hazard types using different procedures. This makes the output comparison problematic and complicates the adoption of balanced mitigation plans. The aim of the COVER MAR project is to develop and test a semi-quantitative, multi-hazard tool for the assessment of the vulnerability of buildings and critical infrastructure to extreme marine inundations, caused by both storm surges and tsunamis. The tool will be built using as its base architecture the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) Model. The PTVA is a GISbased method that allows the user to calculate a vulnerability index for every building exposed to tsunami flooding. The PTVA has already been validated and applied in Australia, USA, Italy and Greece. Within the COVER MAR project we will: (a) upgrade the current version of PTVA Model including building fragility curves developed after recent tsunami events and a numerical simulation of the tsunami flooding; (b) add a new module to the PTVA for the assessment of the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to storm surges; (c) test the resulting tool in 3 pilot sites in New South Wales, using inundation scenarios simulated under present and future climate conditions (i.e. year 2100). Outputs of the vulnerability assessment will be expressed in the form of thematic GIS maps and used to compare potential losses against different frequencies of tsunami and storm surges events.


Felicity Powell and Vivienne Ivory, Opus Central Laboratories, 138 Hutt Park Road, Gracefield, P0 Box 30845, Lower Hutt. [email protected]

Recovery from significant natural hazard events is known to be a lengthy and slow process, affecting a wider geographic area than that which sustains the worst destructive damage. This is evidently occurring in Christchurch. Since the February 2011 earthquake, the Christchurch CBD has been largely cordoned off, resulting in businesses previously located there either shifting elsewhere in the city, relocating to other parts of NZ, or closing down. The consequences of businesses shifting to other parts of Christchurch include the construction of new buildings in office parks as well as greater demand for commercial properties in the airport precinct and established suburban centres like Riccarton. This poster will reveal the emerging spatial trends relating to business relocation within the city. Using geo-locations data from NZ Post’s postal redirection service, the movements of businesses since the February 2011 earthquake will be demonstrated using GIS. This investigation will indicate which of Christchurch’s suburbs have experienced rapid colonisation by organisations formerly located in the CBD. Analysis by industry sector will also be undertaken to uncover if new business agglomerations are being created in the reconfigured city. Analysis of the postal directions data forms the first stage in a long-term study of urban economic recovery that Opus Central Laboratories will be undertaking. This poster will also summarise the next stages in this research.


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Wendy Saunders & James Beban, GNS Science, Lower Hutt [email protected]

Planners have a delegated responsibility to plan for the future of our cities to ensure that the safety and security of present or future communities are not compromised by urban growth, development and renewal. As such, land-use planning is often described as an appropriate tool available for reducing or even eliminating risks to natural hazards. To assist planners in defining levels of risk and promote a risk-based approach to land use planning for natural hazards, a three-step risk-based approach to natural hazards has been developed. Step 1: Determine severity of consequences Once the land use (zone) of a property or properties has been ascertained, the consequences of an event on that land use need to be determined. It is important to note that some hazard events will not have catastrophic losses. For example, and earthquake and tsunami can potential have major and catastrophic losses. However, the consequences from floods and landslides are likely to only be up to ‘moderate’ at a district level. To rank the consequences, the most severe consequence is taken as representing the severity of an event. Consequences are based around the well-beings of social, economic, health and safety, and the built environment. Step 2: Evaluate the likelihood of an event Once the land use and consequences have been determined, only then should the likelihood be evaluated. Once the land use, consequences and likelihood (steps 1 and 2) have been determined, then the options for land use planning can be assessed. Step 3: Take a risk-based approach A matrix is presented which incorporates consequences and likelihood to provide a level of risk that equates to consent status. The restrictiveness of the consent increases as the risk increases. Noncomplying and prohibited are merged together, to allow for high consequence activities to take place in high risk areas, which may not be able to be avoided e.g. a port. The future of risk-based planning The Ministry of Science and Innovation have provided funding through the Envirolink Tools project to turn this approach into a web-based toolkit, which will be due for release in late 2013. This will provide guidance to councils on how the risk-based approach can be implemented. Recent recommendations of the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) for Resource Management Act 1991 reforms have included specific reference to natural hazards. The recommendations include a focus on risk, consequences, and timeframes of events. If the recommendations are supported and implemented, the risk-based approach developed will provide a key resource for Councils as they incorporate the concepts of risk and consequences into their planning process and plans.


Wendy Saunders, Gegar Prasetya, Graham Leonard, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand [email protected] Research funded by the EQC has explored the opportunities for integrating physical science models into land use planning, with a focus on tsunami. The purpose of the research was to: review and assess whether the transfer of flood modelling information has been effective for land use planning purposes assess if a similar process can be used for tsunami seek to understand and document the contrasting information requirements of planners, emergency managers and tsunami inundation modellers make recommendations on how modelling can be incorporated into land use planning at a local level. In doing so, the project can assist understanding amongst modellers, planners and emergency management officers when pursuing a common outcome – to reduce the risk of natural hazards to communities in New Zealand. Results included a decision making tree for whether tsunami should be included in land use planning (Figure 1). To answer this question, modelling is required of the source mechanism to ascertain the threat. Secondly, a risk assessment is required to determine the consequences of an event. Consequences include social, economic, environmental, health and safety, and infrastructure. Question 2 in the decision making tree relates to determining if there is a risk. If not, no planning or Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) actions are required. If there is a risk, the quality of the tsunami inundation modelling data determines if the information can be included in land use planning (Question 3a). If the data quality is at Level 1 (see Box 1), it is not considered adequate for CDEM use or for land use planning purposes, and is not recommended. Level 2 data is recommended as a minimum for inclusion on Land Information Memorandums (LIMs) and for CDEM evacuation planning, warning systems, recovery planning, public awareness and education. If the data quality is at Level 3 or 4, then this information can be included in land use planning, as well as LIMs and CDEM planning. The outputs from the tsunami modelling (i.e. inundation maps) can be incorporated as an overlay on planning maps, with associated risk-based objectives, policies, and consent restrictions. Pre-event recovery planning for land use (Becker et al, 2008) should also be undertaken in all instances. Question 3b addresses how uncertainty can be included in planning maps. This framework provides guidance to Councils on whether tsunami modelling should be included in their land use planning regime. The full report is available at http://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Our-Science/NaturalHazards/Active-Partnerships/Policy-and-Planning


Wendy Saunders & James Beban, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand [email protected]

The recent Christchurch earthquakes have demonstrated the damage to infrastructure, the disruption to economic activity and the social consequences (displacement of individuals and communities) which can result from liquefaction. The potential for liquefaction is not limited to Christchurch, with several cities and towns in New Zealand built on liquefiable land. Many councils are investigating the liquefaction hazard and are exploring land use planning methods to address the potential risk. While in many cases, the need to investigate the liquefaction hazard is required, anecdotal evidence has suggested that several councils are unduly concerned about the liquefaction risk. This is because liquefaction requires two basic conditions in order to occur. Firstly, the region needs to be at a sufficient seismic risk for an earthquake large enough to trigger liquefaction. Secondly, there needs to be the specific soil structure which is susceptible to liquefaction. Some areas of New Zealand (for example Northland) do not have one or more these basic conditions and as such do not need to consider the liquefaction hazard as part of their land use planning process. The purpose of this report is to allow planners to assess if liquefaction is a hazard that should be included in the planning process. To achieve this, the report provides an explanation of liquefaction, followed by a decision tree for planners to use when deciding if liquefaction should be included in land use plans. Following the decision tree is an explanation of each of the four key parts to the decision tree: the first three are questions to assist in deciding if liquefaction should be included; the fourth part provides some options for including liquefaction in to land use planning. This report does not provide guidance on how to include liquefaction into planning documents – additional multidisciplinary guidance to assist with this will be provided once lessons from liquefaction in Canterbury have been learned.


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Colette Starheim, Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, +64 3 364 2900, [email protected] Christopher Gomez, Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, +64 3 364 2900, [email protected] Tim Davies, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, +64 3 364 2700, [email protected] Patrick Wassmer, Faculté de Géographie et d’Aménagement, Université de Strasbourg, 3 rue de l'Argonne 67083 Strasbourg Cedex, +33 3 68 85 08 81, [email protected]

The rapid flow velocities, high sediment concentrations, high erosive powers, and often sporadic occurrences of lahars make them one of the most dangerous and destructive hazards in many volcanic environments. These same attributes have also prevented extensive study of the flow dynamic and sedimentation processes that characterize natural lahar events. Unfortunately, identifying and zoning areas of higher risk for lahar hazard relies in part on the ability to predict the natural evolution of channel structure and flow character. Thus, improved lahar hazard management should start with a better understanding of flow-phase variations and sedimentation patterns. Recognizing this, we used video-footage documenting seven lahar events progressing down the Curah Lengkong valley (Semeru Volcano, East Java, Indonesia) in early 2007 to identify and describe patterns of observed flow and sediment dynamics. In general, lahars frequently evolved over their course, alternating between periods of surging and waning flows. A variety of time- and flowdependent sediment entrainment and deposition patterns, including a significant lateral migration or widening of the flow path, frequently accompanied these shifts in flow-phase. Conceptual process-structure relationships were established between observed sedimentary patterns and several subsurface architectural features reported in an earlier study of the Curah Lengkong lahar deposits. In each case, multiple observed sedimentary patterns offered plausible explanations for the formation of lateral discontinuities, lenticular-shaped features, and thin, sorted horizons of fine sediments in post-event lahar deposits. These results demonstrate the difficulties currently associated with inferring flow processes entirely from post-event deposit interpretation. The anticipated directions of future research and the potential application of these findings to the field of hazard management are also discussed.


Joanne R. Stevenson, PhD Candidate, Geography Department, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand. [email protected]

Organisations shape and are shaped by the built, economic, and social contexts in which they operate. The Canterbury earthquake series has undeniably altered the local context for organisations in the Christchurch central business district (CBD). Within the “four avenues” (which effectively border the central city) approximately 1300 buildings are marked for demolition, new building codes and an uncertain insurance landscape are shaping the rebuild, and people’s perceptions of the CBD and its meanings have changed. The research presented here explores the way organisations relate to their local context, what happens when this context is altered by a disaster, and how this relationship affects organisational resilience and recovery outcomes. Drawing on surveys, interviews and site visits conducted over an 18 month period, I examine the recovery trajectories of three CBD organisations that were impacted by the Canterbury earthquakes. I consider the impacts of the disasters, focusing on the challenges and adaptations of the organisations following the earthquakes. The case studies explore how the organisations perceived the benefits and drawbacks of operating in the Christchurch CBD before and after the earthquakes. The analysis considers the linkage between changes to the organisations’ contexts and organisational identity and performance. Given that organisations are tied to their context through a complex set of networked relationships, the case studies examine each organisation’s post-disaster support network, including the density of network connections, the kinds of support exchanged, and the geographical location of others in the network. The results suggest that strong connections to a local context are both an asset and a liability, and that networked supporters in different geographic locations are valuable at different stages of the response and recovery process.


V. Sword-Daniels, Civil Environmental and Geomatic Engineering Department, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT. [email protected] T. Rossetto, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand. J. Twigg, T.M Wilson, D. Johnston, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, GNS/ Massey University, P.O. Box 30 368, Lower Hutt 5010, Wellington, New Zealand. S. Sargeant, Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Flemmings, Montserrat, West Indies. S. C. Loughlin, British Geological Survey, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LE, UK. P. Cole, Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Flemmings, Montserrat, W.I.

The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat (1995-2012) has been well-studied in hazard literature, but the challenges of the eruption to society and the resilience of the infrastructure that supports it remain little studied. An exclusion zone was established in 1996 but it was not until nineteen people lost their lives in the exclusion zone in 1997 that it was permanently evacuated. The long-lived eruption continues to sporadically affect the population in the north during large dome collapses or if the wind carries the plume northwards. Montserratians have rebuilt both communities and infrastructure away from the volcano, reducing their exposure to high-impact hazards. Communities now live with intermittent low-impact volcanic hazards reaching the north that include: ash falls, acid rain and gases. These relatively low impact, frequent events over a long period of time, may be analogous to other hazards such as drought, flooding or even earthquake aftershock sequences. These chronic hazards pose challenges to infrastructure functionality and society, the effects of which are intertwined. We discuss the range of consequences of such low-impact volcanic activity for infrastructure using an holistic and multidisciplinary approach, accounting for social-infrastructural interaction and cascading effects across infrastructure systems. This is explored through interviews with infrastructure managers undertaken following a period of intermittent ashfalls in the inhabited northwest of Montserrat in February-March 2010. Preliminary accounts of the consequences of volcanic ashfall are presented, which include: cleaning, corrosion, power cuts, temporary school and clinic closures, and increased maintenance costs. Risk reduction measures are identified and include physical modifications to buildings and non-structural elements, social adjustment to the hazard context, and collaborative working between departments to maintain infrastructural services. These constitute proactive adaptations as well as coping measures, which are locally-developed responses to living with chronic volcanic hazards. We aim to improve our understanding of managing infrastructure risk in a volcanic environment, by identifying


impacts of volcanic ashfalls and volcanic risk reduction measures, which are embedded within the social context.


Jared Thomas, Opus Central Laboratories, PO Box 30845, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected] Grace Rive, Opus Central Laboratories, PO Box 30845, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected] Jess Hare, Greater Wellington Regional Council, Private Bag 11646, Wellington 6142, [email protected] Kathryn Nankivell, Hutt Valley Emergency Management, Private Bag 31912, Lower Hutt 5040, [email protected]

Social media is an indispensable tool for the CDEM sector, with communities increasingly relying on this medium to share and receive information during emergency events. A key issue is deciding the appropriate level of engagement to gain the benefit from Social Media while balancing this commitment against more traditional communication and information gathering tools. This study highlights some of the practical lessons and advice identified through the development of a Best Practice Guide for the use of social media by Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) during the response phase. Key issues and best practice advice for the CDEM sector when utilising social media have been identified via international and national case studies and literature. Recommended solutions have been critically examined in workshops and feedback received from CDEM groups, key national stakeholders, and social media experts. This presentation outlines and discusses a number of key challenges when taking on social media, including: resource allocation, social media policy development, building community trust, management of misinformation, information gathering and trust in information sources, effective release and dissemination of information, and evaluating appropriate social media technologies.


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M. Villemure, T.M. Wilson, D. Bristow & M. Gallagher, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. [email protected] S. Giovinazzi & C. Brown, Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

ABSTRACT: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand’s South Island induced widespread liquefaction phenomena across the Christchurch urban area on four occasions (4 Sept 2010; 22 Feb; 13 June; 23 Dec 2011) that resulted in extensive ejection of silt and fine sand. This impacted transport networks as well as infiltrated and contaminated the damaged storm water system, making rapid clean-up an immediate post-earthquake priority. In some places the ejecta was contaminated by raw sewage and was readily remobilised in dry windy conditions, creating a longterm health risk to the population. Thousands of residential properties were inundated with liquefaction ejecta, however residents typically lacked the capacity (time or resources) to clean-up without external assistance. . The liquefaction silt clean-up response was co-ordinated by the Christchurch City Council and executed by a network of contractors and volunteer groups, including the ‘Farmy-Army’ and the ‘Student-Army’. The duration of clean-up time of residential properties and the road network was approximately 2 months for each of the 3 main liquefaction inducing earthquakes; despite each event producing different volumes of ejecta. Since the beginning of the Canterbury earthquakes sequence, >500,000 tonnes of sand and silt ejected by liquefaction processes has been cleaned-up and stockpiled at Burwood landfill at an approximated cost of >NZ$30,000,000.00. The liquefaction clean-up experience in Christchurch following the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence has emerged as a valuable case study to support further analysis and research on the coordination, management and costs of large volume deposition of fine grained sediment in urban areas.


Emma Calgaro, Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052 Australia, [email protected]

In the aftermath of major disasters when the immediate emergency phase has passed, governments along with emergency management organisations, aid organisations, and researchers look for ways to improve responses and build future resilience based on lessons learnt from lived experiences. To obtain these answers, public enquiries such as the Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission on the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, Australia are formed and vulnerability assessments are undertaken. However, many lessons learnt during previous disasters are not incorporated in subsequent planning, preparedness, response, and recovery activities. Furthermore, vulnerability assessments remain skewed toward analysing physical exposure levels, despite strong evidence stating that human, social, and institutional characteristics are the main determinants of the creation and perpetuation of vulnerability. Consequently, a great deal of vital understanding of contextual patterns of vulnerability, within places and across geographical sites, sectors, and scales, is missing, and the root causes (including unequal access and entitlement to resources, social structures, and power systems) are overlooked, left unaddressed, and vulnerability continues.

In the aftermath of the 2004 Sumatra Tsunami, the same calls for learning from the mistakes made before and during the disaster were made. The opportunity for building resilience to future disasters was embraced by Bill Clinton, the UN Special envoy for Tsunami Recovery, who called upon affected nations to ‘build back better’, a move that necessitated a re-evaluation of pre-tsunami development paths, reducing vulnerabilities, and empowering communities to increase their capacity to better withstand and effectively cope with future crises. However, attempts to achieve this often failed. This was very much the case in the tsunami-affected tourism communities of Khao Lak, Phi Phi Don, and Patong in southern Thailand. This poster explores why initiatives to ‘build back better’ failed in these badly affected communities. It reveals that context matters. Vulnerability cannot be fully understood or effectively addressed without engaging in the context within which vulnerability and inequality is created and perpetuated. These contextualised factors include place-based characteristics along with wider cultural attributes, the working of dominant power systems, and governance processes that permeate the fabric of society and determine the functionality of daily life.


PRIORITISING PERILS: A CASE STUDY G .Smart, R. Paulik, NIWA, Box 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand.

New Zealand is at risk from a multitude of natural hazards. These hazards may recur over short to long timeframes and produce social and economic impacts over scales ranging from a single property to the entire nation. Accurately assessing the potential social and economic impacts of different hazards with different magnitudes is important for prioritising and implementing appropriate planning and risk reduction measures and, should a disaster occur, for response and recovery activities. Before September 2010, flooding was New Zealand’s most costly hazard1 and was responsible for 70% of all natural hazard related insurance claims2. The recent Canterbury earthquakes have changed these statistics and highlight the necessity for assessing the potential impact of low likelihood, high magnitude hazards and comparing these with more common perils. For instance, how do we compare the relative impacts of a catastrophic earthquake series having a return interval of many thousands of years with a series of one-in-100 year return interval flood events which have a 63% chance of occurring in a populated New Zealand catchment in any given year3? Previously, natural hazard impact or risk assessments have typically concentrated on a single hazard type with no basis for comparative, cross-hazard cost-benefit investigation and no national benchmark or standard for such risk studies. To address these problems, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research and GNS Science have jointly developed RiskScape©, a multi-hazard impact and risk modelling tool. RiskScape is a decision-support tool designed to quantify existing knowledge of hazard exposure and asset vulnerability into potential impacts such as damage states, replacement costs, casualties and number of people affected or displaced. RiskScape operates through a sequence of modelling steps that combine hazard information with asset databases and damage functions to generate a risk profile for assets within a region or unit boundary. Repeating the model sequence for multiple natural hazard types (e.g. tsunamis, earthquakes and floods) or scenarios (e.g. 50 year, 100 year and 200 year annual return interval flood events) thereby quantifies impacts or risk for the same assets within the same region or unit. This enables a direct comparison of different hazard types or different exposures within a specified area. Asset impacts or risk presented in this way can then enable implementation of cost-effective natural hazard management initiatives based on the relative vulnerability of assets. To illustrate multi-hazard impact assessment this presentation demonstrates RiskScape’s use in quantifying the relative impacts of earthquake, flood, wind storm and tsunami events on buildings and people in a New Zealand town. These four hazards are prioritised in terms of building reinstatement costs, building clean-up costs, human displacement and human casualties.


References. 1

McSaveney, E. 2009. Floods - New Zealand’s number one hazard. Te Ara - the Encyclopedia of New Zealand, updated 2-Mar-09 http://www.TeAra.govt.nz/en/floods/1 2

ICNZ 2009. Insurance Council of New Zealand http://www.icnz.org.nz/current/weather/

3

Smart, G.M., McKerchar A.I. (2010). “More Flood Disasters in New Zealand”. J. Hydrol (NZ) 49 (2)


POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TEPHRA FALL ON ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY NETWORKS: A REVIEW AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES J.B. Wardman, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected] T.M. Wilson, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected] J.W. Cole, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected] P.S. Bodger, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected] C. Stewart, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected]

Modern society is highly dependent on a reliable electricity supply. Tephra contamination of power networks can compromise the reliability of supply. Outages can have significant cascading impacts for other critical infrastructure sectors and for society as a whole. This paper summarises known impacts to power networks following tephra falls since 1980. The main impacts are: (1) supply outages from insulator flashover caused by tephra contamination; (2) disruption of generation facilities; (3) controlled outages during tephra cleaning; (4) abrasion and corrosion of exposed equipment; and (5) line (conductor) and structure (e.g. wooden poles or steel towers) breakage due to tephra loading. Of these impacts, insulator flashover is the most common disruption. The review highlights multiple instances of electric power networks exhibiting tolerance to tephra falls, suggesting that failure thresholds exist and should be identified to avoid future unplanned interruptions. To address this need, we have produced a fragility function which quantifies the likelihood of insulator flashover at different thicknesses of tephra. Finally, based on our review of case studies, potential mitigation strategies are summarised. Specifically, avoiding tephra-induced insulator flashover by cleaning key facilities such as generation sites and transmission and distribution substations is of critical importance in maintaining the integrity of an electric power network.


PALAEOTSUNAMI DEPOSITS IN THE SAMOAN ISLANDS: CURRENT FINDINGS AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS Shaun Williams, Department of Geological Sciences and Natural Hazards Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand Tim Davies, Department of Geological Sciences and Natural Hazards Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand James Goff, Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Kwok Fai Cheung, Department of Ocean and Resources Engineering, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA Catherine Chagué-Goff, Australia-Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Thomas Wilson, Department of Geological Sciences and Natural Hazards Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand Gegar Prasetya, Tsunami Scientist, Indonesia

Investigating palaeotsunami deposits is becoming a key component in tsunami hazard assessments worldwide, as it provides an avenue for understanding the long-term risk of tsunamis to coastal communities. In the Samoan Islands, a pilot palaeotsunami investigation commenced in 2010 following the September 29, 2009, South Pacific Tsunami (2009 SPT). The overarching aim of the project was to investigate characteristics of deposits left by the 2009 SPT, and apply the information to identifying similar deposits in the geologic record. The primary objective was to establish a suite of diagnostic proxies to identify and distinguish tsunami from cyclone deposits in these islands. This presentation discusses preliminary sedimentological, geochemical, geochronological and numerical modelling results associated with the overall project. Emphasis is made on applying the data to form a basis for building a suite of diagnostic proxies which enables the identification and distinguishing of palaeotsunami from palaeocyclone deposits in these islands. The information will ultimately contribute to improving our understanding of the long-term risk to tsunami hazards in this region. Further, it can be integrated into existing hazard plans in order to contribute to strengthening longterm community resilience.


GASTROENTERITIS RISK MODELLING FOLLOWING CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKES IN NEW ZEALAND: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF EXPOSURE AND MITIGATING FACTORS S. Weerasekara, University of Canterbury, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected] S. Giovinazzi, Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand, [email protected] T.M. Wilson, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand, [email protected] D. Johnston, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University & GNS, Wellington, New Zealand, [email protected] M.W. Milke, Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand, [email protected]

The strong ground motions and liquefaction-induced land damage caused by the September 4 2010, and February 22 2011 Canterbury Earthquakes severely damaged essential infrastructure. This included water, sewage and storm water networks, creating a pre-requisite for water-borne outbreaks of gastroenteritis. Furthermore, exposure to sewage contaminated liquefaction ejecta may have been a contributing factor for potential gastroenteritis incidences. Although, gastroenteritis is not usually a serious infection, it can create a post-earthquake societal impact. In reality, no gastroenteritis outbreaks on a territorial scale were reported, with the exception of one isolated case in a welfare centre. This suggests that the adopted protocols or other mitigating factors were successful. Hence, this research aims to analyse retrospectively the gastroenteritis risk following the Canterbury earthquakes from two viewpoints. The first involves developing a methodology for an incipient risk model, to understand the potential for gastroenteritis incidences by collating information on exposure and mitigating factors. The second view entails using two welfare centres as case studies to understand the successful protocols established to limit pathogen dissemination, arising from exposure factors outlined in the risk methodology. Consequently, the two welfare centres can isolate relative effectiveness of mitigation factors to prevent potential gastroenteritis incidences. The risk methodology, coupled with investigating mitigative process carried out by the welfare centres, forms a framework that can be encapsulated as part of the emergency management response framework. This on-going research will explore application of this methodology, and framework to other large urban centres in New Zealand to supplement the current emergency response protocols.


Dall’Osso, F....................................................52 Davies, T..............................................48,57,67

A

deTerte, I.......................................................18

Allen, C............................................................6

Dominey-Howes, D....................................6,52 Drayton, M...................................................7

B Bassett, K.......................................................39

E

Bastin, S.........................................................39

Easton, L.........................................................8

Beban, J....................................................54,56 Becker, J..................................................23, 40

F

Bodger, P.S…………………………………………………66

Fraser, S..........................................................9

Bristow,D.......................................................61

Freeman, C....................................................10

Brosnan, M....................................................15 Brown,C.........................................................61

G

Brown, L..........................................................4

Gaillard, J.............................................11,46,50

Bruce, M........................................................41

Gallagher, M..................................................61

Burns, K.......................................................5

Gardiner, D....................................................18 Giovinazzi, S……………………………………………....68

C

Ghandour, A..................................................45

Calgaro, E...................................................6,63

Giovinazzi, S..................................................61

Chambers, R..................................................18

Glavovic, B...............................................18, 42

Chague-Goff, C……………………………………………67

Goldsmith, M...............................................12

Chang, Y.........................................................37

Goff, J…………………………………………………………67

Cheema, A.....................................................42

Gollop, M.......................................................10

Cheung, K.F………………………………………………..67

Gomez, C.............................................14,15,57

Cole, J.W…………………………………………………….66 Cole, P...........................................................59

H

Collins, S........................................................18

Hare, J............................................................60

Coomer, M.A………………………………………………44

Hart, D......................................................14,15 Hatton, T.......................................................17

D

Hill, M............................................................46


Huggins, A.....................................................18

Mannakkara, S...............................................25

Hughes, M………………………………………………….44

Marlowe, J.....................................................26

Hughes, N......................................................21

Matairavula, K.................................................6 Matsuo, I........................................................9

I

McClure, J.....................................................27

Ivory, V..........................................................53

McSherry, A...................................................50 Milke, M.W…………………………………………………68 Mooney, M...............................................18,51

J

Mora, K..........................................................34 Jarrett, T.........................................................6

Muhammad, I................................................42

Johal, S..........................................................18

Murakami, H...................................................9

Johnson, S.......................................................4 Johnson, V...............................................44,47

N

Johnston, D.....................18,21,23,27,40,59,68

Nairn, K..........................................................10

Johnston, L....................................................18

Nankivell, K...............................................34,60 Navizet, F…………………………………………………...11

K

Nuray Karanci, A............................................18

Kelland, E.......................................................15 Keys, H...........................................................21

O

Kritikos, T.......................................................48

Opper, S.........................................................28 O’Steen, B........................................................4

L Lambert, S.....................................................19

P

Langer, E........................................................30

Parker, R........................................................29

Lawrence, K...................................................20

Paton, D...............................................18,21,40

Leonard, G............................................9,21,55

Paulik, R……………………………………………………..64

Lindell, M.......................................................23

Payan, J..........................................................12

Loughlin, S.....................................................59

Pearce, H.......................................................30 Potangaroa, R................................................37

M

Potts, A..........................................................31

Mackie, B.......................................................49

Powell, F........................................................53


Prasetya, G...............................................55,67

Taylor, N........................................................10

Prater C.........................................................23

Thomas, J.................................................34,60 Twigg, J.........................................................59

Q Quigley, M.....................................................39

V

R

Vargo, J..........................................................17

Rebane, M.......................................................6

M. Villemure, M............................................61

Reynolds, AM................................................26 Richards, A......................................................6

W

Rive, G...........................................................60

Walker, P.......................................................34

Ronan, K........................................................40

Wardman, J.B……………………………………………..66

Rose, A..........................................................35

Wassmer, P.........................................14,15,57

Rossetto, T.....................................................59

Weerasekara, S…………………………………………..68

Rovins, J.........................................................32

Wein, A..........................................................35

Rucklidge, J....................................................33

Whitinui, P.....................................................36 Wilkinson, S..............................................25,37

S

Williams, S………………………………………………….67

Sargeant, S....................................................59

Wilson, T.M.....................39,48,59,61,66,67,68

Saunders, W........................................54,55,56

Withycombe, G.............................................52

Seville, E...................................................17,37 Scheyvens, R..................................................42 Smart, G……………………………………………………..64 Starheim, C....................................................57 Stevenson, J...................................................58 Stewart, C…………………………………………………..66 Sue Wing, I…………………………………………………35 Summerhayes, S............................................52 Sword-Daniels, V...........................................59

T Tarrant, R………………………………………………..…44 6th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference 2012, Christchurch 70

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