Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable

Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Finland

Study funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and Stiftung Mercator GmbH

LUT Energy System Model

 The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity generation, energy storage and electricity transmission  The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year  Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources  The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale  The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study 2

Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Finland more information ► [email protected], [email protected]

Finland - Overview

 Finland is considered as an isolated power system  The power system is mainly based on fossil and nuclear power plants

3


Finland - Power Plant Infrastructure

source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384

Key insights:  Historically, a significant share of fossil and nuclear power plants in the generation mix is observed  In recent times, RE has seen significant growth in the share of installed capacity, particularly bioenergy and wind

4


Finland (Solar, Wind) Solar PV generation profile

Wind generation profile

Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using the weighed average rule

Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed using the weighed average rule

Key insights:  Wind: Seasonal variation and overall distribution is uneven, high generation during the winter  Solar PV: Good PV resource availability during summer and almost zero during the winter  Overall resource variability is substantially reduced by PV and wind complementarity 5


Finland - Full Load Hours

Key insights:  Wind: Excellent wind conditions in regions along the coastline, overall distribution is uneven  Solar PV: Moderate PV conditions 6


Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand

Key insights:  The average compound annual growth rate of electricity of about 1.2% in the energy transition period is assumed  The population of Finland is expected to increase slightly from 5.5 to 5.7 million, while the average per capita electricity demand rises from 13.9 to 20.2 MWh  The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 78 TWh in 2015 to around 116 TWh in the year 2050

7


Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation Installed Capacity

Electricity Generation

Key insights:  Wind and bioenergy increasingly drive most of the system, while solar PV and hydropower complement  Wind supply share increases from 2% in 2015 to about 39% in 2050, becoming the least cost energy source  Hydropower and other RE resources can provide flexibility and supply security in the power system 8


Storage Requirements

Key insights:  Batteries are the most important supporting technology for solar PV  A significant share of gas storage is installed to provide seasonal storage  Significant share of prosumers is noticed in the system  Battery emerges the key storage technology in terms of storage throughput  Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is used for SNG (33%) and bio-methane (67%), which is not accounted in the storage output diagrams but as bioenergy generation 9


Storage Operation Modes (2050) Battery 365 x 24

Gas 365 x 24

Key insights:  Battery storage balances on a daily basis  Gas storage reacts in a very flexible and seasonal way

10


Electricity System Cost during Transition

Key insights:  The power system LCOE increase slightly from 54.1 €/MWh to 57.5 €/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation, storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs  Beyond 2035 the LCOE slightly declines to 57.5 €/MWh by 2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition result in a reduction of energy costs  The investment requirements rise sharply around 2025 and then continuously decline till 2050 11


CO2 Emissions Reduction

Key insights:  GHG emissions can be reduced from about 21 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of the power system declines  GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system  What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 94% to 4 MtCO2eq by 2030 and 99% to 0.3 MtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well before 2050, while gradually lowering the energy system LCOE  The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to the current energy system

12


Summary I – Energy Transition  Finland can achieve 100% RE and zero GHG emissions power system by 2050  The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 57.5 €/MWh by 2050  Wind emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 39% of the total electricity supply by 2050  Solar PV and bioenergy contribute 23% each to the total electricity supply in 2050  Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 82% of total storage output  Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is 28%  GHG emissions can be reduced from about 21 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050  A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option

13


Summary II – Energy System 2050  Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for the year 2050  Total LCOE average is around 57.5 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs)

 main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:  39% wind energy  23% solar PV  23% bioenergy  11% hydropower  Wind, bioenergy and solar PV are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition  Seasonal variation and very good resource conditions are the key reasons for the importance of wind energy  Balancing effect throughout the year, resulting in less overall variability

14


Further Findings Results for entire Europe are available: 

15

Europe

http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a


The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.

Further information and all publications at: www.energywatchgroup.org www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer