Global Impacts and Local Limits of Ecosystems - Combining Fuzzy Logic with LCA Event SETAC Conference 2016, Nantes Authors Fredy Dinkel, Cornelia Stettler, Flora Conte and Thomas Kägi (presenting author) Carbotech AG, Basel
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| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Overview 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
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Introduction Hydro Power: Global versus local/regional impacts Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) Modelling the local impacts of hydro power plants with FST Combining FST results with LCA results Conclusions
| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Comparing power production using LCA Ecological scarcity
700
Points / kWh
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 run-off-river Hydro
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Wind
Solar
Altenatives
hard Coal
10MW
combined cycle
Switzerland
Narual gas
ENTSO
Mix
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| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
There are also good reason for that … Construction impact
Residual water
Hydropeaking
Damage to fish in turbine etc.
Sources: heidismist.wordpress.com/, echo-online.de, fischundfang.de, http://merandenkt.info, kleinwasserkraftgl.ch, http://cenor.pt
Landscape and noise Page 4
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Backwash and reservoir flushing
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LCA has a blind spot for most of those local impacts Negative environmental impact of hydropower plants take place at the local and regional level: • Artificial influence on natural dynamics: modified hydrology, bedload transport (sediments, debris or driftwood transport), riverbank shape, water depth, water temperature, water quality, mechanical obstacles etc. • Disturbances in surrounding areas dues to noise, traffic, construction and maintenance à Damages on ecosystems dynamics: fish migration, invertebrates, spawning grounds à Other potential impact: ground water, flood management, landscape etc. Page 5
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How to evaluate such local impacts? There are almost no quantitative data available for many ecological variables such as • Connectivity of water systems • Spawning grounds • Diversity of habitats Ø But there are expert estimations given in linguistic statements available.
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Modelling: We used the Fuzzy Set Theory as an extension of the classical set theory • To become a mathematical theory extending the existing theories, it is necessary that all rules and function are given and valid. • In the borderline with the crisp set theory the results of both must be the same. Both requests are met by the FST
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| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Fuzzy Set Theory to model qualitative expert knowledge • Technical people normally like to have exact figures. • Real life is different. We generally use linguistic terms, which are vaguely defined: “Do you see the tall, old man at the corner?” • What does tall mean? • Is it a man with a body size of 180 cm? • If yes, is a man with a height of 179.9 cm small?
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| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Fuzzy Set Theory Negative or a limitation? No, but efficient! Exact world A white Mercedes 450 SL with black wheels, silver stripes at the side is approaching you with a velocity of 51,234 km / h
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Real world
Be careful! a car!
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| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
FST: How to express linguistic uncertainty? In the classical set theory there are crisp boundaries between the different sets. An element is a member of a set or it is not.
In the fuzzy set theory an element can be a member of a set to a certain grade.
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ã by Yu Hen Hu
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FST: Major steps of a rule-based application exact or qualitative Input data
System description with linguistic rules and linguistic variables
Fuzzyfication
Fuzzy-Input
Qualitative data
Qualitative modelling rules are defined as logic conclusions if … then ….
wenn...dann wenn...dann ... wenn...dann
Qualitative forecast
Transformation of the qualitative data into quantitative data, if needed.
Fuzzy-Rules
Fuzzy-Output Defuzzyfication
exact Output data Page 11 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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The model developed based on Greenhydro-criteria
Page 12 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
www.carbotech.ch
FST: Major steps of a rule-based application exact or qualitative Input data
System description with linguistic rules and linguistic variables
Fuzzyfication
Fuzzy-Input
Qualitative data
Qualitative modelling rules are defined as logic conclusions if … then ….
wenn...dann wenn...dann ... wenn...dann
Fuzzy-Rules
Fuzzy-Output
Qualitative forecast
Transformation of the qualitative data into quantitative data, if needed.
Defuzzyfication
exact Output data www.carbotech.ch
Page 13 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
FST: How to express relations? With linguistic rules such as IF Variable A: natural run-off regime is
AND Variable B: basic outflow is
THEN Residual water flow is
Not influenced
Fulfilled
Sufficient
Not influenced
Partly fulfilled
Largely sufficient
Not influenced
Not fulfilled
Not sufficient
Partly influenced
Fulfilled
Partly sufficient
Partly influenced
Partly fulfilled
Partly sufficient
Partly influenced
Not fulfilled
Not sufficient
Fully influenced
Fulfilled
Partly sufficient
Fully influenced
Partly fulfilled
Not sufficient
Fully influenced
Not fulfilled
Not sufficient
Page 14 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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FST: Major steps of a rule-based application exact or qualitative Input data
System description with linguistic rules and linguistic variables
Fuzzyfication
Fuzzy-Input
Qualitative data
Qualitative modelling rules are defined as logic conclusions if … then ….
wenn...dann wenn...dann ... wenn...dann
Qualitative forecast
Transformation of the qualitative data into quantitative data, if needed.
Fuzzy-Rules
Fuzzy-Output Defuzzyfication
exact Output data Page 15 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Fuzzy test example
• Szenario A: Current situation (existing 3 hydro power plants) • Szenario B: Construction of a new hydro power plant • Szenario C: Revitalisation potential of the site (removing the existing 3 power plants) Page 16 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Preliminary FST results 100%
• An additional hydro power plant shows only a small reduction of ecosystem quality compared to the current situation. A: Current situation • The current situation shows a rather B: Situation with new high reduction of ecosystem quality power plant compared to no hydro power plants C: Revitalisation potential (revitalisation potential) . • Loss of species is mainly due to changes in habitats and lacking passability.
Degree of Ecosystem Quality
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FST result
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How to combine LCA und FST results This is still an open question and the suggested approach presented here is still under discussion. The local impact from hydro power plants concerns: • Fresh water ecosystems and • Terrestrial ecosystems Different LCA methods like ReCiPe, Eco Indicator 99 or Impact 2002+ calculate as one endpoint ecosystem quality and give the results in species*year, which is derived from the potentially disappeared fraction (PDF): • PDF of species per m3 and year for fresh water • PDF of species per m2 and year for terrestrial ecosystems Page 18 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Influences on the local ecosystem Affected fresh water (fw) ecosystem: Va. ~ 75’000 m3 Lower upper
PDFfw = ffw * Va
PDFfw PDFter ffw fter Aa Va
PDFter = fter * Aa
Affected terrestrial (ter) ecosystem: Aa. ~ 2’000’000 m2 3’000’000 m2
: potentially disappeared fraction fresh water : potentially disappeared fraction terrestrial : Reduction of fresh water species evaluated by the FST model : Reduction of terrestrial species evaluated by the FST model : Influenced area : Influenced volume www.carbotech.ch
Page 19 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
ReCiPe Ecosystem quality in species*year / kWh
Combining LCA and local influences based on FST 7.00E-09 6.00E-09 5.00E-09 4.00E-09 3.00E-09 2.00E-09 1.00E-09 0.00E+00
local global
Scenario A
Theoretical worst case
Wind
Solar
Gas
ReCiPe H/A single score in eco points / kWh
Hydro power case study 0.040 0.030
Ressouces
0.020
Human health
0.010
Ecosystem local
0.000 Scenario A
Theoretical worst case
Wind
Solar
Gas
Ecosystem global
Hydro power case study Page 20 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Conclusions • FST is very suitable to evaluate complex systems such as ecosystems for which no quantitative data are available. • Qualitative expert knowledge / not well defined linguistic terms can be used . • The combination with LCA results is feasable, but not easy. • These local impacts can substantially contribute to the total impacts – They matter! • It is important to ensure transparency in the model because of its complexity.
"In almost every case you can built the same product without FST, but fuzzy is faster and cheaper.“ Lotfi Zadeh Page 21 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Next steps • More discussions with experts of different fields (aquatic ecology, engineer, power plant owners, administration) in order to focus on significant variables and develop linguistic rules • Increase acceptance of the tool among the stakeholders by communicating how the tool can be used to efficiently reject clearly harmful projects as well as to induce a deeper investigation of pre-selected projects with expected minimal harm on the ecosystems. • Test the tool on existing small hydropower plants that already have been evaluated in detail (with Greenhydro, scientific studies, larger projects etc.) for calibration purposes • Optimize the tool according to test results • Create a user-friendly open access interface for users • Dissemination of the tool
Page 22 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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List of literature 1) Thomas Kägi, Fredy Dinkel et al.: Int. J. of LCA, 2015, Session “Midpoint, endpoint or single score for decision-making?” SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting, DOI 10.1007/s11367-015-0998-0 2) Salski A. (edit.). 1996. Fuzzy Logic in Ecological Modelling. Ecological Modelling 85, Elsevier, Amsterdam 3) Dinkel Fredy, Thomas Klaus and Mischa Zschokke: Die Eignung der Fuzzy Set Theorie zur Modellierung von ökologischen Zusammenhängen an den Beispielen Ozonprognose und Biodiversität, BAFU 2001 4) Dinkel Fredy and Raymond Schelker: Evaluating the sustainability of recycling packaging materials combining LCA and Fuzzy Set Theory, SETAC conference 2014, Basel 5) Zadeh L. A. 1964. Fuzzy Sets. In: Information and Control, Vol. 8: 338 – 353. 6) Zadeh L. A. 1973. The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning, Memorandum ERL-M 411, Berkley. 7) Zimmermann H. J. 1991. Fuzzy Set Theory and its Application, 2nd ed., Kluwer, Dortrecht. Page 23 | Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
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Carbotech AG Environmental Consulting • Life Cycle Assessments • Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) • Carbon Footprinting • Cumulative Energy Demand • Material Flow Analysis • Fuzzy Logic Analysis
Energy Consulting
Pollutants in Buildings
• Constructor Consulting • Sectoral Planning Energy • Energy concepts • 2000 WattCalculations • Structural-physical clarifications
• Diagnostics of Buildings • Constructor Consulting • Sectoral Planning • Asbestos measurements • Air Pollutants Consulting
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Thank you for your attention! Looking forward to your questions Acknowledgement: The authors thank to the Swiss federal Office of Energy supporting this project and Swiss Small Hydro, CH-9000 St. Gallen supervising the project. Fredy Dinkel Head of Department Environmental Consulting
[email protected] p +41 61 206 95 22 Page 25
| Global impacts and local limits of ecosystems - combining Fuzzy logic with LCA | SETAC 2016 Nantes | 26.05.2016
Carbotech AG P.O. Box CH-4002 Basel www.carbotech.ch www.carbotech.ch
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