Jun 14, 2017 - Stock Data. 06/13/ ... of mining activity in the area to be favorable for GoldMining. ... For definitions
GoldMining, Inc. (GOLD-CN) Company Update Metals and Mining
June 14, 2017
Heiko F. Ihle, CFA 212-356-0510
[email protected]
Receives Key Approval on Recent Acquisition in the Northwest Territories; Maintaining Buy Stock Data Rating Price Exchange Price Target 52-Week High 52-Week Low Enterprise Value (M) Market Cap (M) Shares Outstanding (M) 3 Month Avg Volume Short Interest (M) Balance Sheet Metrics Cash (M) Total Debt (M) Total Cash/Share
06/13/2017 Buy C$1.71 TSXV C$4.50 C$3.35 C$1.47 C$194.5 C$216 126.1 212,512 0.77 C$21.50 C$0.00 C$0.17
General: all figures in C$ unless otherwise noted.
EPS Diluted Full Year - Nov 2016A FY C$(0.08) Revenue (C$M) Full Year - Nov 2016A FY 0.0 2
2017E C$(0.07)
2018E C$(0.07)
2017E 0.0
2018E 0.0
Vol. (mil)
Price
3.5 3
1.5
2.5 1 2 0.5 0
1.5
JUN-16
OCT-16
FEB-17
JUN-17
1
On June 13, 2017, GoldMining announced the receipt of approval for its Yellowknife and Big Sky acquisition. For more details on the acquisition itself please see our report "Acquisition in the Northwest Territories Adds Ounces for Cheap; Maintaining Buy," which was published on May 11, 2017. The approval was issued by the Supreme Court of British Columbia, bringing the company one step closer to the closing of the transaction. We reiterate that the total consideration payable by the company for the Canadian properties is only 4.0 million shares, equivalent to approximately C$6.7 million upon announcement of the deal. All shares are to be entered into escrow. Following the transaction, 1.57 million shares are to be released at the four-month anniversary of the closing date with an additional 1.18 million shares at six months, and the remaining shares at eight months. We note that the company currently anticipates the completion of the transaction in late June, once routine closing conditions are settled. Recent acquisitions provide future upside potential in mining friendly jurisdictions. The company has been involved in two promising acquisitions in the past few months, resulting in additional exposure to Colombia and Canada. We think that Colombia is quickly becoming an attractive mining jurisdiction, and view the recent increase of mining activity in the area to be favorable for GoldMining. We also think that economies of scale could be realized at the operations throughout Colombia, in part due to the close proximity of the recently acquired La Mina Gold Project and GoldMining's Titiribi Gold Project. Similarly, we view Canada as another stable mining jurisdiction and believe that the large scale properties acquired offer meaningful exploration potential. Overall, we like that the company is diversified within four mining jurisdictions, and continue to believe that both acquisitions could provide substantial value. We view the Yellowknife Gold Project (YGP) as a fairly advanced project. The YGP has been subject to a large amount of drilling, significant underground development, and has a long production history. Over 230,000 meters of diamond drilling have been completed to date, including 1,061 holes primarily focused on Ormsby and Bruce. Infrastructure is in place. The project includes a winterized camp with the capacity to hold 50 people, along with a fuel storage area. Further, the site is accessible by road from Yellowknife, or by air through a 1,000 meter long gravel airstrip located on site. In our view, the extensive drilling performed on the assets in the past should allow management to allocate exploration expenditures efficiently across the property. Although considerable drilling has taken place at the project, we believe there is room for additional exploration, resulting in potential upside to the current resource estimate. We are reiterating our Buy rating while maintaining our price target of C$4.50 per share. While we currently do not model any impact from this acquisition into our model, we highlight that given the low price paid per ounce of gold in the ground, this price target may prove to be conservative. For now, our valuation remains based on a DCF of operations at São Jorge utilizing a 10% discount rate. To this, we add in-situ value for the firm’s additional assets, particularly Whistler, Titiribi, and La Mina at $20/oz for Indicated resources and $8/oz for Inferred resources. Risks. 1) Gold price risk; 2) operating and technical risk; 3) financing risk; and 4) political risk.
For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, analyst certifications, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 3 - 4 of this report.
GoldMining, Inc.
June 14, 2017
GoldMining Inc. 2017 São Jorge Tonnes Processed (000's) Gold grade (g/t) Gold Recovery Annual gold production (000's oz) Gold sales price
$
1,300
2018
$ 1,300
2019
$
1,300
2020
$
Total gold equivalent produced (000's oz) Total revenue Cost per tonne milled Total operating costs Gross profit (in 000's) CapEx (in 000's) (Tax) / Tax Benefit (in 000's)
Cash flow discount rate
Current value of cash flow Plus cash & equivalents Plus Whistler Plus Titiribi & La Mina Plus other assets Less debt Total current value
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
49,572
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
104,977
$64,444
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$136,470
$ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ (75,000) $ (75,000) $ 61,470 $ 61,470 $ (2,000) $ (2,000) $ (17,841) $ (17,841)
$ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ $ (75,000) $ (75,000) $ $ 61,470 $ 61,470 $ $ (2,000) $ (2,000) $ $ (17,841) $ (17,841) $
$
(1,000) $ (1,000) $ (75,000) $
1,944
$
59,470
$
59,470
$
41,629
$
41,629
$
41,629
$
41,629
$
41,629
$ 41,629
$ 41,629
$ 41,629
$
(1,000) $
1,461
$
40,619
$
36,926
$
23,498
$
21,362
$
19,420
$
17,655
$
16,050
$ 14,591
$ 13,264
$
$
30.00 (75,000) 61,470 (2,000) (17,841)
$ 30.00 $ (75,000) $ 61,470 $ (2,000) $ (17,841)
10.0%
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
Fully diluted shares GOLD share price GOLD NAV in US$ GOLD NAV in C$ Rounded ($0.25) price target Source: Rodman & Renshaw estimates.
2022
$ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ (37,500) $ (75,000) $ (75,000) $ (75,000) $ (75,000) $ 26,944 $ 61,470 $ 61,470 $ 61,470 $ 61,470 (1,000) $ (1,000) $ (75,000) $ (25,000) $ (2,000) $ (2,000) $ (2,000) $ (2,000) $ (17,841) $ (17,841)
30.0%
Operating cash flow
2021
1,250 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 85.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 49,572 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 104,977 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300 $ 1,300
153,011 15,975 109,840 175,280 25,000 479,106
(909) $ (61,983) $
12,058
pro forma in US$ $20 per oz Au/eq M&I; $8 per oz Au/eq Inferred $20 per oz Au/eq M&I; $8 per oz Au/eq Inferred primarily for the Rea Uranium asset and Cachoeira
143,997 pro forma per company presentation $ $ 0.75 $ $
1.97 3.33 4.44 4.50
55.6% discount to NAV
Rodman & Renshaw Research is created and distributed by and securities are offered through H.C. Wainwright & Co. LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, which conducts certain research activities under the name Rodman & Renshaw.
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GoldMining, Inc.
June 14, 2017
Important Disclaimers Rodman & Renshaw is a unit of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC. Research is created and distributed by and securities are offered through H.C. Wainwright & Co. LLC, (the "Firm") Member FINRA/SIPC, which conducts certain research activities under the name Rodman & Renshaw. H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility. RETURN ASSESSMENT Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Market Perform (Neutral): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector.
Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months. Distribution of Ratings Table as of June 13, 2017 IB Service/Past 12 Months Ratings Count Percent Count Percent Buy 228 93.83% 75 32.89% Neutral 14 5.76% 0 0.00% Sell 0 0.00% 0 0.00% Under Review 1 0.41% 1 100.00% Total 243 100% 76 31.28% I, Heiko F. Ihle, CFA , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of GoldMining, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of May 31, 2017 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of GoldMining, Inc.. Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest in of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
Rodman & Renshaw Research is created and distributed by and securities are offered through H.C. Wainwright & Co. LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, which conducts certain research activities under the name Rodman & Renshaw.
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GoldMining, Inc.
June 14, 2017
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services. The Firm or its affiliates did receive compensation from GoldMining, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm does not make a market in GoldMining, Inc. as of the date of this research report. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the expressed permission of H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC. Additional information available upon request.
Rodman & Renshaw Research is created and distributed by and securities are offered through H.C. Wainwright & Co. LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, which conducts certain research activities under the name Rodman & Renshaw.
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