Green Party election priority

Green Party election priority

Our Economic Values .......................................................................................3 Summary ............................................................................................................5 Bigger Surpluses, Lower Debt .........................................................................6 The Big Picture...................................................................................................8 Summary of New Costs and Revenues ....................................................... 11 Tax Implications ............................................................................................. 13 Major Policies with Fiscal Implications........................................................ 14

Authorised by Jon Field, Level 2, 17 Garrett Street, Wellington.

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Economic sustainability lies at the very heart of environmental sustainability. We cannot live well in the long term if we are living beyond our means today. Living within our limits is one of the most profound values the Green Party brings to the national political conversation. Running net fiscal surpluses over the economic cycle is as important as running consistent ecological surpluses if we want to thrive and our children to thrive after us.

- Russel Norman

Ensuring that every child in New Zealand has enough to thrive is one of the biggest moral and economic challenges of our times. One in four children now live in poverty: 205,000 Kiwi kids are living in severe poverty. Six years of National has failed to bring any meaningful relief to these kids. Yet National borrowed $4 billion to cut the taxes of the wealthiest 10 percent of New Zealanders. National says bringing every child out of poverty is a nice-to-have, but one that it is ultimately incompatible with their free-market economic agenda. They have failed to see the faces that stand behind our awful child poverty statistics and use the practical tools available to them to respond compassionately. It doesn’t have to be this way. We can change the way we talk about our economy because New Zealanders are resourceful and generous enough to build a society where every child has enough to thrive. To get there, we’ll need our scientists to make remarkable discoveries, our

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nurses to deliver the best care, our teachers to inspire a generation, and our software engineers to start new companies. And we’ll need a Government working in service to its people, one that can help make all this happen. We are all in this together. A Green Government is committed to living within our means — running surpluses and paying down debt — but we will also ensure that the government works to alleviate child poverty, provide social housing and cheaper power, and drive the transition to a smarter, greener economy. We will emulate the success of other small countries like Denmark and Finland, where government works in a constructive partnership with businesses and workers, and the families who depend on them. Poverty is not inevitable in a decent society. Solving poverty is not impossible; it’s entirely possible. This is our fiscal plan to support our vision for a cleaner, fairer, and smarter economy.

Dr Russel Norman GREEN PARTY CO-LEADER Contact: [email protected]

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The Green Party will: 1. Run bigger surpluses than National. 2. Pay down debt sooner than National. 3. Use the current fiscal headroom to maintain real levels of spending in health, education, and environmental protection. 4. Use new savings and revenues to reduce inequality and lift thousands of children out of poverty by 2017. 5. Use new savings and revenues to make rivers and lakes clean enough to swim in again. 6. Use new savings and revenues to invest $1 billion into kickstarting the transition to a smarter, greener innovation economy.

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The Green Party has produced a fully costed and independently audited plan to ensure we can deliver on our election priorities, while running strong surpluses to pay down National’s record debt. We are offering more detail and greater transparency into our spending and revenue raising plans than ever before; greater than the National Government. The first part of this paper outlines how the Green Party’s election priorities will impact upon the Government’s operating balance, debt, and total net worth. Infometrics — an independent economic consultancy — has provided this information in conjunction with Treasury’s Fiscal Strategy Model.1 Its report is attached as an appendix. Infometrics found that not only will the Green Party run bigger surpluses than National, we will do this while also taking significant steps to advance our election priorities: reducing child poverty, making our rivers and lakes safe enough to swim in again, and creating a smarter, greener economy. While other political parties have offered only minor tweaks to address child poverty and inequality, we will make the major changes needed to deal with these challenges while being fiscally responsible. We can do this by raising new revenues and finding new savings from low-value government expenditure. New revenues will be raised through new income, trust, and capital gains taxes. Our spending priorities are all detailed in the second part of this paper. They include a provision for spending on policies yet to be announced. Where cost and revenue impacts cannot be properly modelled or quantified, or impact on other budgets like the National Land Transport Fund, we have identified these in the footnotes.

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A Christmas our children will never forget If the Green Party successfully forms a government following the September 20 election, we will seek to pass a number of our most important election priorities before Christmas, providing immediate relief to children living in poverty and those on low wages. This ‘mini-Budget’ will include implementing a new top income tax and trust rate and paying a new Children’s Credit of $60 per week to families currently missing out. The fiscal impacts of these initiatives are reflected in the figures for 2014/15 and have a net positive impact on the return to surplus.

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The Green Party will run bigger surpluses than National and Labour enabling us to pay down debt faster while increasing spending in priority areas.

- Infometrics

We plan to restrain spending below the PREFU operating allowance for additional spending while also raising some new revenues. As a result, we will return to surplus more strongly than National.

Figure 1: Operating Balance before Gains and Losses, June years. Chart source: Infometrics.

With larger operating surpluses, we are able to pay down debt sooner than under National.

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Figure 2: Gross Sovereign Issued Debt, June years. Chart source: Infometrics.

Lower debt will help lead to lower interest and exchange rates, and lower inflationary pressure on prices. Lower debt levels also give us more flexibility when it comes to responding to economic downturns and the longer-term demographic challenges New Zealand faces with an aging population. In a similar way, our capital gains tax changes and carbon tax changes will also help shift the economy onto a more resilient, productive, and low-carbon pathway. Using Treasury’s Fiscal Strategy Model, Infometrics has found that the Green Party will run surpluses $2.2 billion larger than National by 2017/18. Gross Sovereign-issued Debt will be $6.6 billion lower while total Crown net worth will be $5.5 billion higher. Fiscal Year

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

OBEGAL (Operating Balance before Gains and Losses), $ billion Green Party

0.722

2.548

3.843

5.213

2014 PREFU

0.297

0.818

1.851

2.964

OBEGAL (Operating Balance before Gains and Losses), % of GDP Green Party

0.3%

1.0%

1.5%

1.9%

2014 PREFU

0.1%

0.3%

0.7%

1.1%

Gross Sovereign-issued Debt (GSID), $ billion Green Party

85.027

88.211

93.494

87.267

2014 PREFU

86.647

91.348

98.271

93.896

35.1%

35.7%

32.2%

Gross Sovereign-issued Debt (GSID), % of GDP Green Party

35.4%

9

2014 PREFU

36.1%

36.4%

37.5%

34.6%

Net Core Crown debt (excluding NZS Fund), $ billion Green Party

62.655

63.904

62.758

61.236

2014 PREFU

64.275

67.041

67.535

67.865

Net Core Crown debt (excluding NZS Fund), % of GDP Green Party

26.1%

25.5%

24.0%

22.6%

2014 PREFU

26.8%

26.7%

25.8%

25.0%

Green Party

83.254

88.490

95.068

103.189

2014 PREFU

82.829

86.548

91.449

97.654

Green Party

34.7%

35.2%

36.3%

38.1%

2014 PREFU

34.5%

34.5%

34.9%

36.0%

Crown Total Net Worth, $ billion

Crown Total Net Worth, % of GDP

In addition to running stronger surpluses and paying down debt faster, we are committed to maintaining the quality and reach of core government services in health, education, and environmental protection. We asked independent economic consultancy BERL to calculate the size of National’s cuts to real levels of expenditure in these areas. BERL found that National will cut real levels of health expenditure by 9.8 percent out to 2017, real levels of education expenditure by 1.7 percent, and real levels of environmental protection expenditure by 13.9 percent over the same period.2 BERL’s research is attached as an appendix to this document. The Green Party is committed to reducing National’s record levels of debt, but we will not compromise the standard of healthcare, education, and the environment in order to achieve this. We have set aside some of the existing Budget provisions for new spending to maintain real funding levels in health, education, and conservation. More details can be found in the second part of this document, which details the fiscal impacts of our specific election priorities announced to date.

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The cost of our election priorities are summarised below. All policies to be announced (TBA) have been incorporated in Infometrics’ analysis. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(115)

(399)

(490)

(1)

(81)

(81)

(10)

(16)

(20)

(50)

(50)

(17)

(19)

(17)

(1)

(1)

(1)

Healthy homes

(119)

(119)

(119)

Healthy life

(29)

(29)

(29)

(6)

(89)

(89)

(90)

(200)

(665)

(665)

(665)

(9)

(101)

(11)

(11)

(11)

(163)

(237)

(293)

(15)

(20)

(435)

(1,258)

(2,144)

(289)

(289)

(289)

(2,009)

(4,502)

(5,556)

Innovation Energy TBA Green Investment Bank Increased tax enforcement

(10)

Strong clean water rules TBA TBA Maui’s protection plan1 Environmental legal assistance fund

School hubs Family & whānau life

Climate protection plan (net) Disability in New Zealand Workers

(69)

Greener Christchurch Protecting core government spending

2

Total policies TBA TOTALS

(286)

1. Uncosted but a potential one-off Crown liability capped at $20 million over three years. 2. In health, education, and environmental protection.

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And a summary of our new revenues. Again, all policies to be announced (TBA) have been incorporated in Infometrics’ analysis. Revenue impact ($M)

Top income and trust tax rates

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

574

1,148

1,178

1,211

25

100

300

Capital gains tax Increased tax enforcement

60

120

300

300

Minimum wage increase

139

420

620

770

Raising oil royalties

180

180

180

Loss ring fencing

30

130

135

Green Investment Bank dividends

7

Maritime industry levy

2

2

2

New savings

41

206

269

300

TOTALS

814

2,131

3,920

4,436

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The Parliamentary Library has provided a summary of how Green Party income tax changes will affect takehome pay. Our climate tax cut reduces the income tax most people will pay while our new top tax rate will impact taxpayers earning more than $143,000. We will also reduce the company tax rate by 1 percent. Income level

Current income Income tax paid under tax paid

Green party policy

Difference

10,000

1,050

840

(210)

20,000

2,520

2,310

(210)

30,000

4,270

4,060

(210)

45,729 †

7,023

6,813

(210)

50,000

8,020

7,810

(210)

60,000

11,020

10,810

(210)

80,000

17,320

17,110

(210)

100,000

23,920

23,710

(210)

120,000

30,520

30,310

(210)

140,000

37,120

36,910

(210)

143,000

38,110

38,110

-

250,000

73,420

80,910

7,490

500,000

155,920

180,910

24,990

1,000,000

320,920

380,910

59,990

† Median income from all sources for those in paid employment in the June 2013 quarter, with income from all sources. Sources: Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand Income Survey: June 2013 quarter, Parliamentary Library Tax Calculator.

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1. New top tax rate The Green Party will raise the top tax rate on any income earned over $140,000 to 40 percent. This will have an impact on 3 percent of all taxpayers. Poverty is not inevitable in a decent society. Solving poverty is not impossible; it’s entirely possible. We will redirect all new revenues raised into measures that will directly alleviate the causes of child poverty in New Zealand. And it’s only fair that those who earn more, progressively pay more. This is what countries with low rates of child poverty do. Figure 3: OECD top tax rates (including social security payments). Chart source: OECD.

Even with a new top tax rate of 40 percent, we will still have one of the lowest top tax rates in the OECD, much lower than Australia and the UK (47%), the USA and Norway (48%), Canada (50%), Denmark (56%), and Finland (57%).

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Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

New top tax rate 264 528 558 † Parliamentary Library figures. Static estimate; does not include secondary effects. †

2017/18 591

2. Trust tax rate harmonised with top tax rate To limit the possible tax avoidance opportunities that come with raising the top tax rate, the trust tax rate will be raised in line with the new top tax rate. Revenue impact ($M) New trust tax rate

†

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

310

620

620

620

† Parliamentary Library figures. Static estimate; does not include secondary effects.

3. Investing in increased tax compliance It is hard to estimate the exact size of economic activity taking place outside of the tax system. Estimates of the size of New Zealand’s ‘hidden’ or ‘black’ economy vary but are anywhere between $10 billion and $20 billion. That amounts to a lot of lost tax revenue — more than enough to offset the amount National raised selling our assets.3 Inland Revenue is achieving a return of $6 for every $1 spent on tax compliance and enforcement.4 The Green Party will progressively strengthen IRD’s capacity to enforce current tax law to ensure everyone is paying their fair share. Revenue impact ($M) Increased tax enforcement (net)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(50)

100

250

250

4. Removing tax-free capital gains New Zealand is unusual in that we do not have a comprehensive tax on capital gains. As a result, our tax structure encourages a disproportionate level of investment into non-productive assets like housing, which enjoy tax-free capital gains, instead of investment into the productive sector. This has helped fuel rising house prices, while exacerbating inequality as greater wealth enables greater access to taxfree capital gains. The OECD has found that:

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The tax benefits [of property investment] increase with income and are thus regressive. House price increases redistribute income from new entrants in the housing markets to existing homeowners and lead to a growing market segment that cannot afford to buy a home. Indeed, widening inequalities in the distribution of net worth have been observed across New Zealand households. Estimates by Le et al…suggest that the wealthiest 20% of the population owns 70% of the total net worth (of which property is the most important component), while the poorest 30% have almost no net wealth.5

A tax on capital gains (excluding the family home) is the fairest, most effective way to encourage private savings and investment into the productive sector. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Capital gains tax

†

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

25

100

300

† BERL estimates for Labour’s capital gains tax.

5. Maintain real levels of spending on health, education, and environmental protection Unlike National, which plans to cut real levels of expenditure in health, education and conservation, the Green Party will commit to maintaining the quality and reach of core government services. New analysis by BERL shows that the National Government will cut real levels of health expenditure by 9.8 percent out to 2017, cut real levels of education expenditure by 1.7 percent, and cut real levels of environmental protection expenditure by 13.9 percent over the same period.6 The Green Party is committed to reducing National’s record levels of debt, but we will not compromise the standard of healthcare, education, and the environment in order to achieve this. We have set aside some of the existing Budget provisions for new spending7 to maintain real funding levels in health, education, and conservation. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Maintain health, education, and

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(435)

(1,258)

(2,144)

conservation service levels

†

† BERL figures.

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6. Climate tax cut In June, we announced our Climate Protection Plan8 — our plan to address climate change through a revenue neutral carbon tax. All revenues raised from a charge on carbon will be recycled back to families and businesses through a $2,000 income tax-free band and a 1 percent company tax cut. The plan will set New Zealand on a path to be carbon neutral by 2050. The initial price on carbon will be $25 per tonne on CO2 equivalent emissions for all sectors except agriculture and forestry. Dairy emissions will pay $12.50 per tonne. Forestry will be credited at $12.50 per tonne. For more details, refer to: www.greens.org.nz/climateplan Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Charge on carbon

†

Tax cut secondary effects

2017/18

1,141

1,141 90

†††

††††

Forestry credits Surrender of NZUs

2016/17

††

Income tax cut ($2,000 tax free) Company tax cut (1%)

2015/16

†††††

(641)

(641)

(250)

(250)

(186)

(186)

(50)

(50)

New Climate Commission (5) (3) † BERL figures. Static estimate; does not include secondary effects. †† Parliamentary Library estimates of increased GST and company tax from income tax cut. ††† BERL figures. Static estimate; does not include secondary effects. †††† Treasury figures. ††††† New Zealand Units (NZUs) currently represent a $469 million Crown liability.

7. New Zealand Power Our power bills are too high. While average power prices in the OECD have decreased in the past 20 years, in New Zealand they have gone up over 70 percent.9 Kiwi families and businesses are paying too much while the electricity company shareholders make big profits. In 2013, we jointly announced our plan with the Labour Party to reduce power bills by around $300 a year and increase our use of renewables. Cutting power prices across the board will have a stimulatory effect on the economy, resulting in higher GST and company tax revenues for the Government. However, we estimate that NZ Power will have a net fiscal cost of $80 million per year. That’s a small price to pay to release $750 million of savings to families and businesses.

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Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

New Zealand Power

2016/17

2017/18

(80)

(80)

8. Raising royalties on oil According to the OECD, the royalties charged for taking minerals that belong to us all are extremely low in New Zealand.10 We will raise all current royalty and access charges to international averages, removing all the concessionary tax treatment for the petroleum and mining sectors. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Oil royalty rate raised to average

11

12

End fossil fuel subsidies

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

180

180

180

18

18

18

9. Loss ring-fencing Landlords will no longer be able to offset rental property losses against other income for tax purposes. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Loss ring-fencing 30 130 135 † Treasury estimate based on briefing papers to the Ministers’ Sub-Group on Tax Meeting on 8 March 2010. †

10. New savings The Green Party has identified savings in current government spending that will be reprioritised within the votes. We do not support National’s new spending on ‘executive principals’ or their work on weakening the Resource Management Act through the Ministry for the Environment. Super Gold Card and rail funding will be shifted to the National Land Transport Fund. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

35

124

155

28

36

36

36

13

116

90

90

1

1

Investing in Education Success Vote Environment Super Gold Card & rail funding

†

Other Votes 1 † Transport funding transferred to the National Land Transport Fund.

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11. Smart green innovation Innovation lies at the heart of a smart, green economy. Economies that innovate do better over the long term, creating good jobs that pay well and enable us to live quality lives within environmental limits. We invest roughly half of what most other developed countries do in research and development, and considerably less than other small, advanced economies like Denmark, Finland, or Israel. To help secure the long-term prosperity of New Zealand, we will significantly ramp up our investment in innovation. We will invest an additional $1 billion of new government funding over three years for research and development, kick-starting a transformational shift in how our economy creates wealth.13 We will take a collaborative partnership approach to innovation with the private sector that will include: R&D funding made up of tax credits and grants; a requirement for firms that go into overseas ownership to repay their grants; a new voluntary option for large grants, where companies that receive significant taxpayer funds agree to the Government taking an equity stake in their business. Finally, we will enhance the incentives to study engineering, mathematics, computer and the physical sciences. The Green Party will fund an additional 1,000 places at tertiary institutions for students of engineering, mathematics, computer science, and the physical sciences, costing $50 million per year. Revenue impact ($M)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(91)

(363)

(455)

1,000 more university spaces

(10)

(20)

(20)

Restore postgraduate allowances

(11)

(11)

(11)

Social Enterprise Fund

(3)

(4)

(3)

Increased R&D expenditure

2014/15 †

† $1 billion over three years with an assumption of 10 percent capital investment.

12. Green Investment Bank The Green Party will establish a Green Investment Bank to accelerate New Zealand's transition to a greener economy.

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The Green Investment Bank will be a government-owned, for-profit bank. It will partner with the private sector to fund new projects ranging from renewable energy and biofuel production to new clean technologies.14 The Bank’s final shape will be decided by an expert group but we have set aside $120 million over three years to establish the Bank and set it up with a $100 million line of credit. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

Green Investment Bank (net)

2016/17

2017/18

(10)

(9)

13. Student Green Card We will fund free off-peak travel for tertiary students and apprentices on all buses, trains and ferries, through a student Green Card. This will cost up to $30 million per year and be funded entirely from the National Land Transport Fund. Free off-peak travel for those in education and training is good for students’ back pockets and good for all commuters. Increased uptake of public transport will help relieve congestion, provide environmental benefits, but most importantly, make it more affordable for students to get around. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Student Green Card † Funded from the National Land Transport Fund †

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

0

0

0

14. Safe to school We will invest $200 million over four years from the National Land Transport Fund into new transport infrastructure so kids can cycle and walk to school safely and to ease congestion on New Zealand's roads. Our aim is to get most kids walking or cycling to school again by making it a safe and pleasant experience. A generation ago, most kids walked or cycled to school. Today, only a third do. When kids walk or bike or ride their scooter to school, it's good for their health, it's good for their learning, it eases congestion and it's good for the environment.

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The transport investment has a cost benefit ratio of 20:1.15 That's a billion dollars of gains for each year's $50 million investment. Revenue impact ($M) Safe to school

2014/15

†

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

0

0

0

† Funded from the National Land Transport Fund

15. Solar in schools As a part of our comprehensive plan for cleaner, cheaper power for all New Zealanders, the Green Party will invest $20 million of capital into solar PV systems in schools, allowing them to benefit from cheaper, cleaner power. Schools can expect lower power bills for schools ($1.6 million per year) yielding total savings of $41 million + GST over the 25year lifespan of the panels installed. Solar PV is one of the smartest, cleanest forms of electricity generation available. We can reduce electricity demand by powering our schools with the sun. Our schools are a perfect candidate for solar PV because the majority of their power usage is during the day. Solar in Schools has the added benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, creating new jobs, and educating students, staff, and the wider community about environmental sustainability and clean energy.16 Revenue impact ($M) Solar schools

†

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(1)

(2)

(2)

† Cost of capital and depreciation

16. Healthy homes Insulation and clean heating are the most powerful ways to reduce the cold and damp that bedevils so many New Zealand houses and leaves thousands of people, especially the elderly and the very young, with serious health problems. Insulating homes is one of the most effective uses of government money, returning around $4 in benefits for every $1 spent and reducing asthma, circulatory diseases, and respiratory illnesses.17

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We will invest $300 million ($100 million a year for three years) to restore the highly successful Warm Up New Zealand insulation scheme to its original ambition of covering all poorly insulated homes, with $35 million ring–fenced for Canterbury. We will also establish a special fund of $27 million over two years to help Christchurch residents insulate their house if they are still doing major repairs — turning crisis into opportunity, and allowing residents to rebuild their homes better than ever before. Progressive Ownership will give families that are otherwise locked out of the housing market a pathway to home ownership by leveraging the Government's low cost of capital.18 For the million or so people living in rental accommodation, we’ll deliver healthy homes for some of our poorest children by improving the quality of rental accommodation and rights of tenants. We’ll implement a Warrant of Fitness programme for all rented houses, to ensure all children are growing up in warm, healthy homes, we’ll provide greater security of tenure for families, and we’ll provide $3 million of extra funding over three years to help families take action against substandard rental housing.19 Revenue impact ($M)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(109)

(109)

(109)

Progressive home ownership

(1)

(1)

(1)

Rental Warrant of Fitness

(8)

(8)

(8)

Renters’ advocacy service

(1)

(1)

(1)

Warm Up New Zealand

2014/15

17. Healthy life The Green Party is committed to providing free healthcare for all young New Zealanders from birth until early adulthood. One in four teenagers report not going to the doctor when they need to and cost is a common barrier. By removing a barrier to healthcare, we will reduce hospital admissions, help prevent unwanted pregnancies, and give teenagers the support they need to help them navigate young adulthood.

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Our $29 million plan will improve the health of young people aged 13 to 17, by making GP visits and medicines free for this group. The package includes: $21 million a year to extend free GP visits to the 290,000 teenagers aged 13-17 and abolish their prescription charges; a further $8 million a year to help GPs deal with the extra workload from making visits free for 13-17 year olds. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Extending free GP visits to teens

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(29)

(29)

(29)

18. School hubs; ensuring education is a route out of poverty Education remains the most effective route out of poverty. But school only works for children if they are in a position to be able to learn. Many Kiwi kids come with a complicated mix of social, health and family issues, often related to low income, that need to be addressed before they can get the most out of school. We will establish community hubs, or health, welfare and education one stop shops in all decile 1 to 4 primary and intermediate schools. We will also build new early childhood education/community centres onsite at decile 1 to 4 schools where there is a need.20 Revenue impact ($M)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

School hub co-ordinators

(27)

(27)

(27)

After school care

(10)

(10)

(10)

School nurses

(40)

(40)

(40)

(12)

(12)

(12)

(1)

(1)

(1)

School lunches

2014/15

(6)

On-site early childhood centres

19. Family and whānau life One quarter of all New Zealand children are growing up in severe poverty.21 That’s 205,000 children — through no fault of their own — living in poverty in New Zealand at this moment. We can act now to take proper care of our children and bring them out of poverty, for their sake and for our country’s future.

23

The Green Party will address the immediate needs of the poorest children by giving their families an extra $60 a week, extending the $220 a week new born payment to those currently missing out, and by boosting subsidies for key expenses like early childhood education. We will extend the 20 hours early childhood education subsidy to cover two-year-olds at a cost of $235 million per year. Another 40,000 kids will get a good start in life. As part of this package, we will provide $32 million a year to restore funding for 100 percent qualified teachers to make sure every child gets the very best care and support. Revenue impact ($M) Children’s credit for eligible families

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(200)

(400)

(400)

(400)

(30)

(30)

(30)

(235)

(235)

(235)

Parental tax credit Extended ECE for two-year-olds

†

†Note: Updated figures from launch date, based on more up-to-date information.

20. Disability in New Zealand An inclusive, accessible society benefits disabled people, their whānau and friends, and society as a whole. People with disabilities are more likely to be excluded from the work force than able-bodied people. There is a significant lost opportunity cost to New Zealand through this exclusion. This is why it is vital for these barriers to be addressed and sufficient support to be provided for people with disabilities to gain meaningful employment. The Green Party will provide assistance to help people with disabilities gain access to employment by increasing the amount and access to funding for workplace assistance. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Employment assistance

(10)

(10)

(10)

Television captioning

(1)

(1)

(1)

21. Greener Christchurch After the devastating earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, we plan to invest specifically in the Canterbury region to ensure a smart rebuild. The Green Party will invest over $300 million of new funding for Canterbury transport infrastructure (over five years), $15 million for climate change

24

resilience measures, and $20 million to progress the Avon-Otakaro River Park green spaces in the city. We can future-proof the region and make Christchurch a liveable, accessible, and beautiful city. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

0

0

0

Avon-Okakaro River Park

(10)

(10)

Climate resilience package

(5)

(10)

Christchurch transport

†

†Funded from the National Land Transport Fund

22. Maui’s Protection Plan To ensure the protection of the last remaining Maui's dolphins, the Green Party will prohibit fishing methods lethal to Maui's and all new oil, gas and mineral mining throughout the West Coast North Island Marine Mammal Sanctuary. We will extend fishing protections to the entire Maui's range, as recommended by expert scientists. The International Whaling Commission's scientific committee, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, and the Society for Marine Mammology, have all called for set nets and trawl nets to be prohibited throughout the Maui's dolphins range. To help protect the livelihoods of affected fishers by supporting them to adopt dolphin-safe fishing methods, the Green Party will spend up to $20 million over three years to help them. The money will be spent in consultation with the affected fishers but it is anticipated that the money will be used as transitional support to dolphin-friendly fishing gear, including support for technology-led research and appropriate permitting. Revenue impact ($M) Maui’s protection plan

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

†

† Uncosted but a potential one-off Crown liability capped at $20 million over three years.

23. Strong clean water rules The number one environmental priority for us this election is making our rivers clean enough to swim in again and keeping our beaches safe from oil spills. 25

The Green Party will establish a protected rivers network to permanently safeguard our most precious rivers similar to the permanent protection given to national parks. The protected rivers network will stop the destruction of rivers from irrigation, dams and pollution, while retaining the full right of all New Zealanders to use the rivers for food gathering and recreation. The Green Party will overhaul and strengthen National's weak National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management, implement a strong National Environmental Standard for water quality and implement a National Environmental Standard for water flows in rivers, all of which will be geared to make our rivers clean and healthy enough for swimming. Finally, we will keep our wild rivers wild by not building any new dams on them. Revenue impact ($M)

2014/15

Strong clean water rules

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(17)

(17)

(17)

24. Workers Workers will get a better, fairer deal under the Green Party. We will lift low wages by progressively moving the minimum wage $1 per year to $18 an hour by 2017. We will show government leadership on wages by introducing a Living Wage for workers in the core Government sector. Raising minimum wages will have strong income effects lifting many families out of poverty, reducing inequality, and result in higher government income tax revenues. Revenue impact ($M) Increase minimum wage by $1/year Living Wage paid to core Govt.

†

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(70)

(231)

(356)

(450)

(23)

(23)

(24)

(3)

(4)

(3)

††

Social enterprise fund

Tax revenue from increasing wages 139 420 620 770 † MBIE figures. These do not include second round impacts, like company tax revenue reductions. †† Based on additional costs to the Ministries of Health, Social Development, Education, and ACC. †

25. Other initiatives announced Revenue impact ($M) Structural timber award

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(1)

26

Maritime industry levy

2

2

Improving public access to rivers

2

(2)

Environmental legal assistance

(1)

(1)

(1)

26. Other measures still to be announced The Green Party are still to announce several major new policies in the run up to the election. Revenue impact ($M) Policies to be announced (net)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

(289)

(289)

(289)

27. Changes to the National Land Transport Fund The Green Party will invest over $10 billion in new public transport projects and rail infrastructure over the next decade, transforming how New Zealanders get around in our largest cities. Our ten-year transport plan will cost less than National's corresponding ten-year transport plan, create more jobs, and invest in the transport projects that New Zealanders have said they want. By reprioritising low-quality spending, the Green Party will: 1. Invest $10.4 billion in new public transport projects and rail over 10 years delivering buses and trains every few minutes at peak hour in major cities, decongesting our cities' roads, and reversing the neglect of our rail network; 2. Invest $2.2 billion in seven key public transport projects in Auckland, including $1.3 billion in funding for the Auckland City Rail Link to start immediately; 3. Increase funding for walking and cycling infrastructure by 300 percent — a $100 million per year investment in new safe, separated walking and cycling infrastructure in New Zealand’s small towns and big cities; 4. Create a $423 million fund for regions to contest for projects that will best serve their transport needs; 5. Fund a Student Green Card to provide free off-peak travel to all tertiary students and apprentices.

27

Activity State Highway Improvements

2015/ 2016

2016/ 2017

2017/ 2018

2018/ 2019

2019/ 2020

2020/ 2021

2021/ 2022

2022/ 2023

2023/ 2024

2024/ 2025

Total

Change

470

430

390

330

300

285

210

160

130

110

2815

-11360

1200

1250

1300

1325

1375

1425

1450

1550

1625

1675

14175

State Highway Maintenance

515

528

538

548

560

573

585

598

613

625

5680

515

528

538

548

560

573

585

598

613

625

5680

Local Roads Improvements

143

138

123

126

120

115

107

111

102

93

1177

190

198

205

210

218

230

238

248

255

265

2255

Local Road Maintenance

485

495

505

515

525

538

545

560

570

583

5320

485

495

505

515

525

538

545

560

570

583

5320

Public Transport Services

383

395

415

428

438

445

458

468

483

495

4405

333

345

355

368

378

385

398

408

423

435

3825

Public Transport Infrastructure

650

700

800

880

980

1050

1175

1300

1400

1500

10435

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Walking & Cycling Improvements

100

100

100

110

110

110

120

120

120

130

1120

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

30

32

33

281

Regional Improvements

70

125

130

130

130

130

130

130

130

130

1235

70

75

80

80

83

85

85

85

85

85

813

300

305

310

318

323

328

335

340

348

350

3255

Road Policing

300

305

310

318

323

328

335

340

348

350

3255

Road Safety Promotion

34

35

35

36

36

37

38

38

39

39

364

34

35

35

36

36

37

38

38

39

39

364

Investment Management

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

605

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

605

3205

3307

3403

3479

3581

3670

3764

3887

3997

4118

36410

3206

3311

3411

3484

3584

3689

3764

3919

4052

4153

36571

1

4

8

6

3

19

0

31

55

35

161

Total

Savings

0 -1078 0 +580 +10435 +840 +423 0 0 0 -161

Figure 4: Green Party’s proposed Government Policy Statement on Transport Funding 2015-2025 compared with National’s (in blue). All figures are $ millions.

28

Sources 1

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/fiscalstrategy/model BERL analysis available at: https://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/befu_expenditure_data_for_green_party.xl sx 3 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11181626 4 Report of the Finance and Expenditure Committee (2013/14), Estimates for Vote Revenue. Retrieved from: http://www.parliament.nz/resource/0001872018 5 Ibid 6 BERL analysis available at: https://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/befu_expenditure_data_for_green_party.xl sx 7 $4.6 billion over 2015/16 – 2017/18 8 www.greens.org.nz/climateplan 9 https://www.greens.org.nz/nzpower 10 OECD (2011), OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2011, p148 11 Conservative estimate based on MBIE figures supplied in a Question for Written Answer 05686 (2014). Retrieved from: http://www.parliament.nz/ennz/pb/business/qwa/QWA_05686_2014/5686-2014-dr-russel-norman-to-the-minister-ofenergy 12 WWF (2013), Fossil Fuel Finance in New Zealand, p5-6. Retrieved from: http://awsassets.wwfnz.panda.org/downloads/wwf_fossil_fuel_finance_nz_subsidies_rep ort.pdf 13 More information: https://www.greens.org.nz/innovation 14 More information: https://www.greens.org.nz/greeninvestmentbank 15 https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/about/news-events-and-notices/news/news2014/02/cycling-infrastructure-more-economic-than-for-other-transport.html 16 More information: https://www.greens.org.nz/solarschools 17 More information: https://www.greens.org.nz/warmupchch 18 More information: https://home.greens.org.nz/housing 19 More information: https://www.greens.org.nz/policy/fairer-society/housing 20 More information: https://home.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/schools_at_the_heart_1.pdf 21 Bryan Perry, Ministry of Social Development (2014), Household incomes in New Zealand: trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Retrieved from: https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publicationsresources/monitoring/household-incomes/ 2

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