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China & World Economy / 1–3, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2013
Guest Editors’ Words Linxiu Zhang, a Scott Rozelleb For this Special Issue we have endeavored to compile a set of papers that carry a coherent message to the readership of China & World Economy. The work builds upon and seeks to extend two recent topics of debate in China. First, we recognize and add to the literature on tightening labor markets, rising wage rates and the emergence of a new era in China’s economic development. Second, we contribute to the debate on the seriousness of inequality in China. This set of papers has three sub-themes. In the first paper, we draw on a large national representative set of data, which helps to set the scene for the rest of the Special Issue. This paper brings new evidence on China’s rural labor market. It looks at trends over time and documents the simple and clear fact that, at least among the younger cohorts (ages 16 to 40 for men and ages 16 to 30 for women), almost all individuals in China’s labor force have already transitioned from agriculture to the off-farm labor market. Although there are additional members of the labor force that are still engaged in farming, most of these are elderly men and middle-aged women. In the conclusion of the paper, we validate the observations of a number of researchers who believe that wages in China have begun to rise and, assuming labor demand stays strong, that the upward pressure on wages is here to stay. In the other two sub-sections, we begin to examine what this might mean for the future of China. Specifically, we attempt to answer questions about whether the labor force will be capable of meeting the demands of China’s economy two decades from now. To do so, we are implicitly making two assumptions: first, that a large segment of China’s future labor force (e.g. in 2030) are coming from rural areas of central and western China; and, second, that the quality of the labor force tomorrow will depend on the quality of human capital being built today. Our concern is that if children today in many rural areas of China are not
a
Professor, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources
Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. b
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute and Stanford Center for International Development, Stanford
University, Stanford, USA. ©2013 The Authors China & World Economy ©2013 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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Linxiu Zhang, Scott Rozelle / 1–3, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2013
healthy and are not receiving quality education, then, as wages rise and employers demand more from their employees, there may be a polarization of the labor force. We are concerned about the stability of an economy in which tens of millions (or even hundreds of millions) of individuals are unemployable in the formal labor market. To consider this set of questions, we examine the nature of China’s human capital in five papers. Two papers document the poor health and poor health care that exists in rural China. One paper looks at the epidemic of intestinal worms in south-west China. The other paper assesses the quality of rural health care in China’s villages. Another paper documents the digital divide between urban and rural individuals. In this paper, we argue that the gap between urban and rural students (and between Han and minority) in terms of access to computers and Internet use (in school and at home) is one of the largest in the world. If students today are not learning even the basics of Internet and communications technology, we consider whether they will be employable in the coming decades. Finally, as the third sub-theme, two papers analyze the nature of China’s upper secondary school system, showing that: (i) tuition is so high that students in poor areas are not attending secondary school because of the high cost of education; and (ii) even though there is tremendous investment in vocational education and training, investments are lagging in poor areas. We believe (and argue in these papers) that if students today are not staying in school and learning those basic subjects that are being taught in high school (e.g., mathematics, language, English, science and Internet and communications technology skills), it will be difficult for them to find a job in the formal economy in the future. While the papers in the Special Issue cover different topics and study problems (and solutions) in different regions of the country, the papers share several characteristics. First, all of the papers are empirical in nature. They are based on large high-quality datasets. Indeed, the six studies use 9 primary datasets. Second, a number of the studies are interdisciplinary. They draw on the expertise of medical doctors, education specialists and economists. Finally, this Special Issue is a team effort. The authors are all associated with the Rural Education Action Project, or REAP. REAP is an umbrella organization, focused on problem identification and program evaluation, with a goal to improve human capital—education, health and nutrition—in China’s poor areas and migrant communities. Academics from no fewer than 15 different universities, research institutes and academic organizations contribute to the papers that make up this Special Issue. There are coauthors from Europe, the USA and China. In sum, we believe that this set of papers will make a unique contribution to the literature. The publication of these papers will show other scholars in China that ©2013 The Authors China & World Economy ©2013 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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Guest Editors’ Words
collaborations across disciplines and among researchers in different countries can be productive and produce high quality, policy-relevant research on China’s economy.
Author List Authors contributing to this special issue are all from Rural Education Action Program (REAP). For easy communication, the email contact of each author is listed here in alphabetic order. Babiarz, Kimberly Singer, Postdoctoral, Email:
[email protected]. Boswell, Matthew, Program Manager, Email:
[email protected]. Cai, Yingping, PhD Candidate, Email:
[email protected]. Chen, Xinxin, Associate Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Chu, James, Project Manager, Email:
[email protected]. Hu, Xiao, Master Candidate, Email:
[email protected]. Huang, Jikun, Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Lai, Fang, Postdoctoral Researcher, Email:
[email protected]. Li, Qiang, Associate Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Liu, Chengfang, Associate Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Loyalka, Prashant, Research Fellow, Email:
[email protected]. Luo, Renfu, Associate Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Ma, Xiaochen, PhD Candidate, Email:
[email protected]. Maani, May, Research Associate, Email:
[email protected]. Medina, Alexis, Project Manager, Email:
[email protected]. Mo, Di, Postdoctoral Researcher, Email:
[email protected]. Qu, Qinghe, Senior Research Assistant, Email:
[email protected]. Rozelle, Scott, Senior Fellow, Email:
[email protected]. Shi, Yaojiang, Email:
[email protected]. Smith, D. Scott, Assistant Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Wang, Xiaobing, Associate Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Wei, Jianguo, Assistant Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Yang, Yihua, Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Yi, Hongmei, Assistant Professor, Email:
[email protected]. Zhang, Linxiu, Professor, Email:
[email protected].
©2013 The Authors China & World Economy ©2013 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
