Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report ...

DECEMBER 2016 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through November 30, 2016 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

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[1] MARKET SUMMARY

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County # Home Sales

December 12, 2016

2013

2014

2015

2016

% Change ('15 - '16)

November

64

68

79

111

40.51%

Year-To-Date (Jan-Nov)

973

985

1,042

1,213

16.41%

Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)

1035

1,079

1,138

1,297

13.97%

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Median Sales Price

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2013

2014

2015

2016

% Change ('15 - '16)

November

$185,750

$181,200

$185,000

$190,000

2.70%


$175,000

$178,000

$186,000

$192,000

3.23%


$175,250

$176,500

$185,000

$190,000

2.70%

2013

2014

2015

2016

% Change ('15 - '16)

November

66

68

51

44

-13.73%


67

66

55

51

-7.27%


68

64

56

50

-10.71%

Median Days on Market

After a slightly slower October, home sales surged in November 2016 -- showing a 40.51% improvement over last November with 111 closings taking place last month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This contributes to the 16.41% increase in year-to-date home sales. The median sales price is also showing an improvement

over last year, having increased 3.23% (year-to-date) to $192,000 as compared to last year when it was $186,000 at this time. Finally, homes are selling more quickly this year than last, with a 7.27% decline in the median days on market, now at 51 days as compared to last year’s 55 days.

Published on December 12, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2016.

[1] MARKET SUMMARY

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2015

2016

% Change

2015

2016

% Change

November

27

35

29.63%

52

76

46.15%

Year-To-Date

344

410

19.19%

698

803

15.04%

. Rockingham County

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City of Harrisonburg

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Median Sales Price

2015

2016

% Change

2015

2016

% Change

November

$210,500

$163,000

-22.57%

$172,500

$214,500

24.35%

Year-To-Date

$167,500

$166,750

-0.45%

$194,900

$200,000

2.62%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Median Days on Market

2015

2016

% Change

2015

2016

% Change

November

45

40

-11.11%

53

45

-15.09%

Year-To-Date

53

35

-33.96%

58

62

6.90%

Home sales have increased slightly more in the City (+19%) than in the County (+15%) when looking at the first eleven months of the year -- though median prices have risen more in the County (+2.62%) than in the City (-0.45%) during that same timeframe. Homes are selling much faster in the City (median of 35 days) as compared to the

County (median of 62 days). While the majority of home buyers purchase in the County (803 vs. 410 so far this year), as stated, we are seeing the number of buyers in the City increase more quickly than that pace is changing in the County.


[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 175 2013

158

2014

150

2015

133

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

2016

134

125

104 101

100

85 75

50

November 2016 111 Home Sales

151

67

72 68

56 49

53

JAN

FEB

49

68

72

110

107 104

93

111

125 118 114 108

128

126

116 106

100

111 logo.indd 1

97

112 105

111

7/28/2008 3:10:30

97

97 93

93 83

81

79

71

84

68 64

58

25

0

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

The graph above shows the month-by-month breakdown of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County with a red line for 2016 and a blue line for 2015. After a slow and somewhat disappointing month of October home sales (97) home sales shot up to 111 in November, which far exceeds the number of sales

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

seen in each of the past three months of November. When we combine October and November sales, there were 208 sales in 2016, which still exceeds the OctoberNovember sales in each of the past three years, when we saw 184 sales in 2015, 180 sales in 2014, and 157 sales in 2013.



Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1300 1200

1,213

1100

1,067

1,085

974

988

900

910

920

817

808

1000 900 800

832

839

700

747 685

743

600

623

592

618

497

500

383

400

400

299

308

226

228

146 79 40

154 87 41

2011

2012

500

542

400

462

300 200 100 0

664

734

296 192

697 591 466 355 248

1,125 1,041 962 857

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760 634

1,102 1,005

282 189

877 719 605

OCT

AUG

7/28/2008 3:10:30

JUL JUN MAY

454 321 220

121 49

167 109 46

117 49

135 67

2013

2014

2015

2016

This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As is evident, there were more home sales in 2015 than in any other year in the prior four years. The largest year-over-year recovery seems to have occured between

NOV

SEP

526 392

DEC

APR MAR FEB JAN

2012 and 2013 -- but we also saw a larger increase in home sales last year (2014 to 2015) than we saw the previous year (2013 to 2014). We have now (in 2016) easily soared past last year’s total of 1,125 home sales -- and we seem likely to see a total of at least 1,300 home sales in 2016.



Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes $190,000

$190,000

$186,250

$185,750

$185,000

$186,000

$185,000

$186,500

$186,000

$185,000

$185,000

$185,000

$186,000

$185,000

$185,000

$185,000

$185,000

$185,000

$180,000

$179,000

$179,900

$179,700

$178,000

$176,500

$177,000

$174,700

$174,321

$173,000

$175,000

$174,900

$176,500

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

2,000

$175,200

2,500

$189,000

# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$200,000

$190,000

$180,000

$170,000

Stable 1,297

1,273

1,265

1,242

1,210

1,204

1,187

1,164

1,156

1,143

1,138

1,125

1,134

1,127

1,148

1,145

1,128

1,122

1,119

1,107

1,093

1,078

1,085

1,081

1,077

1,058

1,030

1,040

1,033

1,022

1,042

1,019

1,074

1,055

1,067

1,035

1,143

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1,500

$160,000

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$150,000

$140,000

1,000

$130,000

$120,000

500

$110,000

0 Nov-13

Nov-14

This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. Over

Nov-15

$100,000 Nov-16

the past 24 months we have seen relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales, which has now risen to almost 1,300 sales/year. And after many years of median sales prices hovering between $173K and $175K, they finally made their way up to $185,000 by summer 2015 and have now risen to $190,000.


[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

+8%

+14%

1,153

1,071 1,000

+4%

$127,700

n/a

$122,588

800

$122,900

+17%

$149,000

+14%

$169,900

1,200

1,248

-6%

+1%

+2%

-23% logo.indd 1

967

870

-8%

799

+4%

832

+8%

+4%

$192,000

$200,000

1,213

1,067

+2%

+19% -10%

+2%

$185,000

-13%

-3%

$178,000

-5%

$175,000

n/a

$172,375

+15%

$192,983

1,324

+1%

$169,900

1,400

$179,900

1,438

+14%

$185,000

-14%

1,507

$195,000

1,600

$195,100

1,669 +11%

1,085

1,122

+3%

$150,000

7/28/2008 3:10:30

900

$100,000

600

400

$50,000

200

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2015) marks the fifth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase (+3%) in

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

$0

the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 4% increase in the median sales price. We have now seen increases in the median sales price for four years in a row, though they were small (+1%, +2%, +2%) increases up until 2015 when we saw a 4% increase in the median sales price.



Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,400

851

+24%

880

$147,000

$136,000

$133,239

+2%

-1%

+5%

$200,000

$190,000

$192,000

-2%

-12% +16%

+8%

+6%

909

$170,000

-2%

+3%

800

600

-11%

+16%

868

-6%

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798

813

+1%

819

n/c

$214,000

1,000

-4%

$195,000

1,024 n/a 1,025

$184,000

-6%

$195,000

-4%

$203,000

-1%

$215,000

+8%

$223,575

1,200

$226,800

$210,000

$275,000

$225,000

901

$175,000

818

7/28/2008 3:10:30

+21%

-15%

678

-11%

602

-1%

595

+10%

653

+3%

672

$125,000

$75,000 400

$25,000

200

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County told two two different stories last year (2015), depending on whether we were evaluating the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2015) marked the third year in a row with between 810 and 820 home sales -- so, virtually no change in the pace

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-$25,000

of home sales, though the median sales price of single family homes increased by 5% to $200,000. In 2016, we have seen a solid increase in the pace of single family homes -- back up to 900+ sales, for the first time since 2006 -- and median sales prices have also increased significantly from last year.



Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

529

+47%

302

300

+14%

+10% +5%

-6%

-15%

$118,500

+9%

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

$94,600

400

483

$160,000

$140,000

$120,000

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-36%

289

7/28/2008 3:10:30

$100,000 304 -7%

+49%

268 228

-24%

200

+3%

n/c

450

$134,950

500

+11%

$149,750

-9%

$151,750

-3%

$151,750

+19%

$137,250

-4%

$132,750

$166,635

+2%

$140,500

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,250

-18%

$159,545

600

$163,800

644

$160,850

700

204

203

-12%

179

+11%

254

+5%

266

312

+14%

$80,000

$60,000

+27%

$40,000 100 $20,000

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

After six years (2005-2011) of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has been rebounding since 2012. The 304 sales seen in 2015 marked the highest level of sales seen anytime between 2008 and 2015. Despite the continuing increase in the sale of townhouses

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

$0

(and duplexes and condominiums) we did not see any further market recovery in 2015 when it comes to price. The median sales price of these properties was again $151,750 -- the exact same median sales price we saw in 2014. Thus far in 2016 we are seeing continued stability around a $150K +/- median sales price.



Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers 1000 900

932 931 929 924 913 904 893 881 870 860 849 839 831 822 813 801 791 780 770 757 744 730 718 705 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 630 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 607 608 609 611 610 610 609 606 599 600 603 619 635 631 647

Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market

SELLERS

700 600 500 400 300

Large Over Supply = Buyer's Market

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7/28/2008 3:10:30

A Relatively Balanced Market

381 379 376 368 374 372 370 352 365 373 386 389 389 397 397 401 403 401 406 407 416 422 416 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 503 509 492 507 510 502 496 482 484 491 495 491 504 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 560 554 565 560 559 565 560 570 570 577 581 593 592 584 578 569 556 542

800

BUYERS

200 100

It happened! It really happened! Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how

Nov-16

Sep-16

Jul-16

May-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jan-15

Mar-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

May-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Sep-11

Jul-11

May-11

Jan-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

0

many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. And finally, in June 2016, these two trajectories crossed! There are more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale!



Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price

Price/SF $350,000

140

$129

$127 $117

$116

120

$113 $101

$87 $76

$227K $224K

$81

$210K

$103

$105

$133K

$136K

$106

$113

$108

$250,000

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$215K

$203K

7/28/2008 3:10:30

$214K $195K

$184K

$195K $192K

$170K 60

$300,000

Median Price Per SF

$97

100

80

$127

$190K

Median Sales Price

$150,000

$147K $100,000

40

$50,000

20

0

$200,000

$200K

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

$0

similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year (2014 to 2015) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.



Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

$140 140

$138

130

$127 $123

$123

120

$126 logo.indd 1

$121 $117

$119

7/28/2008 3:10:30

$121

$117

$115

$114

$108

110

$104 $105

100

$106

$113

$111

$111

$105

$104

$106

$101 $103 $96

$97

$105 $101

$98

90

80

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. In looking at 2016 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($105/SF) than that of homes with less than 1500 SF ($126/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.



Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

2,000

1,750

97.7%

97.8%

98.1%

99.1%

99.1%

98.9%

98.0%

98.0%

1,669

96.0%

96.0%

96.0%

97.0%

97.0%

97.0%

100.0%

95.0%

1,507

1,500

97.0%

98.0%

1,438

1,324 1,248

1,250

1,153

1,213

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1,071

1,067 967

1,000

870 799

832

1,085

90.0%

7/28/2008 3:10:30

1,122

900

85.0%

750 80.0% 500 75.0%

250

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.7% in 2001 before the pace of home sales started

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

70.0%

escalating. Of note, last year we almost returned to that pre-boom level -- given the 97% average during 2015 compared to the 97% - 98% average in 2000 - 2002. And now, after several years hovering at 97%, this metric has shifted back up to 98% based on data from the first eleven months of 2016.



New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200

186 200

180

$133

$141

$140

$136

$129

$128

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150

7/28/2008 3:10:30

109

$114

$105

$99

80

$94

100

$129

121

120

$130

139

$137

140

137

$146

138

$150

140

$144

158

160

100

84

77

60

41

40

45

51

54

47

50

38

20

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 2006 and 2010 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 2001 (before the housing boom) we still see a 70% drop between 2001 and 2010. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. This year, however, seems to be QUITE different. We have now seen 77 new home sales in the first eleven months of the year, exceeding the full year of sale seen for each of the past six years -- a welcome sign for new home builders!


[4] BUYER ACTIVITY Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 180

158

160 145 140

141

135

133 123

120 107 100

91

118

112

109 102

80

109

108

98

94

91

119

118

114

75 68

99

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86

77

130

128

126

76

7/28/2008 3:10:30

93

84

82

70

63

74 67

56

60

40

Annual Pace: 1,335 contracts 20

Annual Pace: 1,185 contracts

Annual Pace: 1,168 contracts

This graph clearly illustrates what a busy buying season it has been over the past nine months. We have seen an average of 123 contracts per month over the past nine months -- as compared to an average of only 103 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. These strong contract numbers, clearly, are leading

Oct-16

Nov-16

Sep-16

Aug-16

Jul-16

Jun-16

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

0

to the busy season of closings -- and we are likely to see yet another strong month of sales in December based on the strong month of 93 contracts seen in November 2016 as compared to only 70 contracts in November 2015.


[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels (end of month)

700

600

623

604

659 653 644 635 636 640

577 538 542 541

619 560

570

581 582

532 539

500

568

549

560 532 480 451

400

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7/28/2008 3:10:30

300

200

100

0

Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which may be a big, significant,

weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been declining over the past year, to a current level that is 25% down from a year ago.



Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes

Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos

600 250

501 477

500

382

391

230

445

445

440 400

487 481 485 493

408

405 381

418

430

439 436

416

435 403

392 392

372 343

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300

172 164 156

160 151

178

210

182

7/28/2008 3:10:30

190

174 166

170

157

154

151

147

200

152

150

147

152 151 143

139

150

133 125

100

0

This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale has decreased by 23% over the past year, while the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos for sale has

129

130

108 108

110

90

decreased by 38% over the past year. As is evident, inventory levels are much lower in the Winter market, and we are likely to see further declines in inventory levels over the next few months as we continue through the winter real estate market.



Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

600

500

461 438

432 388 382

400

478

477 454 449 448

449 408 406 405

396

417

429 434 425 401

419

398

372

368 logo.indd 1

345

7/28/2008 3:10:30

-23% YOY

300

200

172

150

160

169

181 185

198

189 190 186 188

163 170

100

152

136 134

153 152 148 150 148 141 134

112 106

-38% YOY

0

Trends in inventory level currently seem to, in many ways, transcend the City / County divide, but when looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a relatively sizable decline (-38%) over the last year in the number of properties for sale, while in the County, there has been a slightly smaller (-23%)

decline in the number of homes for sale. Despite relatively modest changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.


[6] DAYS ON MARKET Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months

> 1 year, 52, 4%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings

> 1 year, 56, 12%

< 30 days, 60, 13%

6 - 12 months, 210, 16%

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< 30 days, 499, 39%

30 - 59 days, 72, 16%

6 - 12 months, 97, 22% 3 - 6 months, 217, 17%

60 - 89 days, 33, 7%

60 - 89 days, 119, 9% 30 - 59 days, 200, 15%

3 - 6 months, 133, 30%

Median Days On Market: 50

Median Days On Market: 123

Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median “Days on Market” is 50 for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 39% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 30 days of

having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you’ll find that 54% of homes that sell go under contract within 60 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.


[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

70

60

52

53

52

52

53

53

52

54

54

55

54

54

54

54

55

54

55

56

58

58

57

59

59

58

60

+10% YOY

50 logo.indd 1

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40

30

21

20

9.8

9.8

20

21

22

23

23

24

24

25

9.6

9.5

25

25

27

27

27

27

27

27

28

29

29

30

27

28

28

8.5

9.3

9.6

11.5 12.3 10.3 11.3

5.6

6.1

6.1

+12% YOY

20

10

0

3.7

3.9

10.3 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.8 10.7

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.5

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.0

8.7

5.2

8.2

5.4

The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past year, with the

7.8

5.4

7.4

5.4

7.7

5.4

8.3

5.5

8.4

5.7

8.3

5.9

5.3

6.3

6.3

6.1

+59% YOY +12% YOY

most significant increase being in the $300K - $400K price range (+59% year-overyear) with the other three price ranges (under $200K, $200K - $300K, $400K+) each seeing between a 10% and 12% year-over-year increase.


[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

350

316 300

290

321 300 299 302

287

311 313 314 283

269 272 265

261 264

274 256

250

248 234

229

221 217 202

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200

180 158 155

172

171

177

190

182 178

157

190 173 172 168

174

182

172

182

88 71 57

50

63

54

70 58 57

53 52

63

83

83

84

68 67

73

80

80

71

79 73

80 75

73

157 154 153 156

64

65 55

69

48

66 56

76

143

64

78 73

75 69

80 72

75 73

190

166

150

100

7/28/2008 3:10:30

82 75

77 72

71 64

136

64 61

-39% YOY

-19% YOY

------ YOY -16% YOY

0

Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The lowest price range (under $200K) has seen the largest decline (-39%) in inventory levels over the past year -- while all other price are seeing a year-over-year decline

in inventory, but a decline that is less than 20%. The only stable price rnage has been the $400K+ price range where we have seen no year-over-year change. All four price ranges are likely to see some further decreases in inventory levels over the next few months as we continue through the winter real estate market.


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

20

18

17 17

16

15 14

14

14

14

17

Entire Market: 4.2 Months of Housing Supply 451 Active Listings 12-Month Average of 108 Sales/Month

17 15

14

15 14 13

12

14 13

13 12

12

12 11

12 10 10

9

9 8

8

6

7

6 4

2

0

9

6

5

8

8 7

8 6

6

5

5

5

8

8

8 8

5

6

6

9

8

8

6

7

7

7 5

9 9

7

7

6

9

6

6

6 6

6 5

11

10 9 8

8

8

6 6

5

6

5

7 6

7

5

8

7

6

5

8

6

6

6

5

6 5

4

4

4

4

4

3

5 3

[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450

$99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350

$36,900

$32,208

150

7/28/2008 3:10:30

$54,000

$59,650

$53,950

$54,900

$56,500

$54,500

$56,600

$55,000

201

$30,500

200

247

$54,500

250

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$42,000

261

$80,000

$59,900

304 300

Stability

$40,000

Growth

111

100

$60,000

85

83

75 58

64

62

63

2010

2011

2012

84

78 59

$20,000

50

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

After some modest recovery in the pace of sales of lots of less than an acre over the past few years, there were fewer of these sales in 2015 (78) as compared to 2014 (84). That slower pace of lot sales did not stop sellers from being able to obtain higher prices for their building lots, as the median sales price increased from

2009

2013

2014

2015

2016

$0

$53,950 to $59,650. This is nearly tied for the highest median sales price seen anytime since 2008. While we are unlikely to return to seeing 250 or more lot sales in a single year, hopefully we will see increases to 100+ sales per year in the coming years. Of note, the pace of these sales thus far this year is not looking promising.



Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$100k + 16 listings 11% $0 - $40k 34 listings 23% $80k - $100k 18 listings 12% logo.indd 1

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$60k - $80k 31 listings 21% $40k - $60k 49 listings 33%

148 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $55,000

Despite the fact that only 78 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 148 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($55,000) is actually a bit lower than the 2015 median sales price of $59,650. Given last year’s 78 lot sales, if no

other lots were listed for sale, it would take 1.9 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, a significant portion of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2015) median sales prices.



Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

107

$10,111

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$20,000

$15,171

$13,240

$14,981

$15,000

$15,964

$25,000

$9,932

$9,535

$8,333

120

$8,245

140

$12,003

160

$15,000

$17,713

168

$13,957

180

$30,000

$20,833

$24,184

200

$15,000

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$10,000

100

87 77

76

80

$5,000

83 70 57

60

51

44

42 40

66 58

62

49 -$5,000

28 -$10,000

20

0

$0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County peaked in 2013 at 70 sales, declined in 2014 to only 58 sales, but popped back up to 66 sales during 2015. The median price per acre of these lots with over 1 acre also jumped back up in 2015 to $15,171. This is the highest price per acre for land of

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-$15,000

over one acre seen anytime in the past six years. At this point, we seem poised to see a similar (or slightly smaller) number of these sales in 2016, and median price per acre is likely to drop back down again to the $10K - $12K range.



Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$75k - $100k 4 listings 2%

$100k + 16 listings 9%

$50k - $75k 11 listings 6%

$0 - $10k 49 listings 27%

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$30k - $50k 29 listings 16%

$20k - $30k 26 listings 14%

$10k - $20k 48 listings 26%

177 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $18,533 / Acre

Despite the fact that only 66 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 177 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 183 parcels for sale is currently $18,533 per acre. Given

last year’s 66 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 2.7 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.


[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,213

1,153

1,200 1,071

1,085

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1,122

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1,013

1,000

936 864

816

794

758

800

600

400 270 200

0

91

2001

63 2002

75

2003

70 2004

86

2005

93

2006

118

97

2007

2008

The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded

177

2009

2010

223

2011

252

2012

222

2013

163

2014

139

2015

129

2016

Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013, 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, and 8.1 times as many in 2015.


[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

6.00%

3.00% Nov-13

4.03%

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Nov-14

Nov-15

3.47%

3.42%

3.50%

3.43%

3.48%

3.48%

3.64%

3.66%

3.71%

3.79%

3.62%

4.01%

3.95%

3.76%

3.86%

3.84%

3.98%

4.02%

3.87%

3.68%

3.69%

3.80%

3.66%

4.00%

3.87%

3.97%

3.98%

4.20%

4.10%

4.12%

4.14%

4.12%

4.33%

4.40%

4.48%

4.37%

4.50%

4.32%

5.00%

4.29%

5.50%

Nov-16

7/28/2008 3:10:30

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

4.2%

4.0%

4.4%

4.2%

4.4% 3.8%

4.1%

4.0%

4.3%

3.2%

3.50% 3.00% Oct-13

3.9%

3.9%

4.1%

4.0%

4.4%

5.0%

5.5%

5.4%

5.0%

4.00%

4.4%

5.1%

4.8%

4.4%

4.1%

4.8%

5.0%

5.5%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

5.5%

5.6%

5.3%

4.9%

5.2% 4.1%

4.50%

4.7%

5.00%

4.4%

5.50%

4.7%

6.00%

5.3%

Unemployment Rate

Oct-14

As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates over the past two years -- almost always under 4%. Last month, the average mortgage interest rate jumped from 3.47% to 4.03%, and it seems unlikely that we will see rates in the 3.X% range again anytime soon. The second graph above

Oct-15

Oct-16

illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years. A low local unemployment rate and low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable and start to grow in recent years.


[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker

Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, elevated photography equipment, property websites for each of his listings and Matterport 3D Showcase. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgApps.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com and many others. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Children’s Choir and East Rockingham Recreation Association, and is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, camping, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events.

Questions? Contact Scott anytime.... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) [email protected]

Everything You Need To Know About the Home Buying Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

Local Online Real Estate Resources

Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Scott provides detailed, professional and responsive service to all of his clients, whether they are buying their first home or have been through many housing transitions. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/ Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

Marketing Strategies for Successing Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

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Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com


7/28/2008 3:10:30