Nov 14, 2017 - Ju l-1. 7. A u g-1. 7. Se p. -1. 7. Oct-17. Harrisonburg & Rockingham ... 290. 147. 174. 152 150147 1
NOVEMBER 2017 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2017. provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Four - Five Bedroom Brick Colonial in Lakewood Estates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1501CumberlandDrive.com
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
November 14, 2017
# Home Sales
2014
2015
2016
2017
% Change ('16 - '17)
October
111
105
97
96
-1.03%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
916
963
1105
1054
-4.62%
1,072
1,127
1,268
1,262
-0.47%
Last 12 Months (Nov-Oct)
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Median Sales Price
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2014
2015
2016
2017
% Change ('16 - '17)
October
$190,000
$182,000
$188,500
$204,250
8.36%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
$178,000
$186,000
$192,000
$196,025
2.10%
Last 12 Months (Nov-Oct)
$177,149
$185,000
$190,000
$196,125
3.22%
2014
2015
2016
2017
% Change ('16 - '17)
October
66
65
58
37
-36.21%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
66
57
52
33
-36.54%
Last 12 Months (Nov-Oct)
63
59
51
36
-29.41%
Median Days on Market
Home sales slowed only slightly this October as compared to last October (97 down to 96) though the year-to-date pace of home sales (1,054 sales) is now 4.62% behind where we were (1,105 sales) at this time last year. This nearly 5% decline in the pace of home sales has been accompanied by a 2.1% year-to-date increase in the median
sales price, which would suggest that the decline in the pace of home sales may be related to reduced inventory levels. The 36.54% year-to-date decline in median days on market would also confirm that there are plenty of buyers acting quickly to purchase homes, often as soon as they are hitting the market.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
# Home Sales
2016
2017
% Change
2016
2017
% Change
October
31
30
-3.23%
66
66
0.00%
Last 12 Months (Nov-Oct)
439
421
-4.10%
829
841
1.45%
. Rockingham County
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City of Harrisonburg
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Median Sales Price
2016
2017
% Change
2016
2017
% Change
October
$146,000
$189,950
30.10%
$214,250
$216,950
1.26%
Last 12 Months (Nov-Oct)
$168,000
$172,000
2.38%
$199,900
$210,000
5.05%
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Median Days on Market
2016
2017
% Change
2016
2017
% Change
October
42
24
-42.86%
77
40
-48.05%
Last 12 Months (Nov-Oct)
37
25
-32.43%
60
44
-26.67%
Each year, twice as many (+/-) homes sell in the County as compared to the City. Looking at year-to-date figures, County home sales are on pace (+1.45%) with last year, while City home sales have declined by 4.1%. That faster clip of home sales in the County has been accompanied by a 5.05% increase in the year-to-date median
sales price, whereas the median sales price in the City has only increased 2.38% over the past year. Also of note -- the median sales price in the County ($210K) is quite a bit higher than in the City ($172K) but homes sell more quickly in the City (25 DOM) as compared to the County (44 DOM).
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 175 2014 158
2015
150
149
2016
138
2017
Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales
152
133
134 125 117
125
101
100
93 85
75
69 67
56 50
49
69 68
72
53
58
FEB
MAR
68
110 107
111
115
108
129
126 118 106
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111 105 97
100 93
112 105
113
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97
97
96
81
95
79
84
68 October 2017 96 Home Sales
25
0
JAN
APR
MAY
JUN
This year has not had the sky high monthly sales figures seen last year. As shown above, last August and September (2016) were spectacular months of sales -- well above and beyond any previous such months in recent memory. This year, the months of August and September fell right in the middle of 2014 and 2015 sales
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
paces for those months. Then, in October, we actually saw our lowest month of October sales seen in recent years -- though it was only one sale less than seen last October. We are likely to see somewhere around 70 to 80 sales in November if we continue to track with 2014 and 2015 home sales for the duration of this year.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1400 1300 1200 1100
1,067
1000 900 800 700 600
832 747 685 623
0
910
920
839
817
808
743 664
734
500
383
400
400
299
308
226 146 79 40
228 154 87 41
296
2011
2012
462
100
900
497
400
200
988
592
542
300
974
618
500
1,085
697 591 466 355
1,125 1,041 962 857 760 634
1,313
DEC
1,218
NOV
1,105 1,008
282
958
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879
853
721
735
606
618
454
480
321
331
526 392
1,054
192 121 49
248 167 109 46
189 117 49
220
231
135 67
138 69
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As shown above, our local housing market experienced small incremental growth between 2013 and 2015 before seeing a sharp uptick in home sales last year in 2016. Through
OCT SEP AUG
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JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN
July of this year, it seemed that we would see more home sales in 2017 than in 2016 -- but we have since fallen quite behind! August, September and October of this year have set us behind 2016 and likely have created enough of a year-over-year gap that we will not be able to match 2016 home sales this year.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes $196,125
$195,000
$194,500
$193,000
$192,700
$192,000
$190,000
$192,000
$192,000
$192,500
$190,000
$190,000
$189,000
$186,250
$185,750
$185,000
$185,000
$186,500
$186,000
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$180,000
$179,900
$179,000
$179,700
$178,000
$176,500
2,000
$177,000
2,500
$196,500
# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
$200,000
$180,000
1,263
1,262
1,287
1,327
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1,325
1,324
1,323
1,316
1,315
1,313
1,302
1,268
1,244
1,212
1,205
1,187
1,164
1,156
1,143
1,143
1,125
1,138
1,127
1,134
1,148
1,128
1,145
1,122
1,119
1,107
1,093
1,085
1,078
1,081
1,077
1,276
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1,500
1,339
Stable
$160,000
1,000 $140,000
500
0 Oct-14
$120,000
Oct-15
This graph shows a rolling 12 month trend line of the number of homes sold in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly
Oct-16
$100,000 Oct-17
basis. Over the past three years we have seen relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales, which (until August 2017) had risen to more than 1,300 sales/year -- and the median sales price has been steadily increasing for over a year from the $185K range to now be right around $195,000.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes
$250,000
1,800
+14%
1,000 +4%
$127,700
800
$122,588
+17%
$169,900
+14%
1,153
$149,000
1,200
1,248
-6%
+1%
+2%
+4%
$196,025
$192,500
+4%
1,067
+2%
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1,309
1,085
1,122 1,054
+3%
+19% -10%
870
-8%
799
+4%
832
+8%
$200,000
+17%
-23%
967
+2%
$185,000
-13%
-3%
$178,000
-5%
$175,000
n/a
$172,375
+15%
$192,983
1,324
+1%
$169,900
1,400
$179,900
1,438
+14%
$185,000
-14%
1,507
$195,000
1,600
$195,100
1,669 +11%
$150,000
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900
$100,000
600
400
$50,000
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2002 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2016) marks the sixth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
(+17%) in the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 4% increase in the median sales price. This 17% increase in the pace of sales far exceeded the increases seen in the prior two years (2%, 3%) and likely contributed to the additional 4% increase in the median sales price.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes
1,400
1,000
800 $147,000
$136,000
-1%
+5%
+7%
$224,650
$214,000
$200,000
$190,000
-2%
$192,000
+6%
$225,000
978
909
$175,000
+20% -12%
+16% +8%
600
+24%
880 $170,000
851
-6%
-11%
+16% +3%
-4%
$195,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$184,000
-6%
$195,000
-4%
$203,000
-1%
$215,000
+8%
$223,575
1,200
$226,800
$210,000
$275,000
813
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798
819
n/c
818
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738
+21%
-15%
678
+1%
-11%
602
-1%
595
+10%
653
+3%
672
$125,000
$75,000 400
$25,000
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County improved significantly between 2015 and 2016. After three years of relatively little change in the number of single family home sales (813, 819, 818) we saw a sudden and dramatic increase to 978 home sales. Looking back, there have only been two
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-$25,000
years (2004, 2005) when more single family homes were sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 20% increase in the pace of single family home sales was accompanied by a 7% increase in the median sales price. The median sales prices of detached homes seem likely to make another decent sized increase in 2017.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos
529
444
$103,100
+47%
300
+14%
302
$118,500
+5%
-6%
-15%
+10%
$108,200
400
+9%
483
+3%
n/c
-1%
$159,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
450
$134,950
500
+11%
$149,500
-9%
$151,750
-3%
$151,750
+19%
$137,250
-4%
$132,750
$166,635
+2%
$140,500
+33%
+2%
$154,250
-18%
$159,545
600
$163,800
644
$160,850
700
$120,000
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-36%
289
304 -7%
268 228
-24%
204
200
-12%
+11%
254
+5%
266
+9%
331
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$100,000 316
+14%
$80,000
+27%
$60,000
179
$40,000 100 $20,000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
After six years (2005-2011) of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has been rebounding since 2012. The 331 sales seen in 2016 marked the highest level of sales seen anytime between 2008 and 2016. Despite the continuing increase in the sale of townhouses
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
(and duplexes and condominiums), we did not see any further market recovery in 2015 or 2016 when it comes to price, and in fact, the median sales price of these properties dropped slightly in 2016 to $149,500. We are, however, finally seeing the median sales price start to increase based on year-to-date sales in 2017.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market
839 831 822 813 801 791 780 770 757 744 730 718 705 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 630 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 607 608 609 611 610 610 609 606 599 600 603 619 635 631 648 655 656 656 660 660 668 662 664 644 632 631
900
SELLERS
800
BUYERS
700
600
500
400
7/28/2008 3:10:30
389 389 397 397 401 403 401 406 407 416 422 416 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 503 509 492 507 510 502 496 482 484 491 495 491 504 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 560 554 565 560 559 565 560 570 570 577 581 593 592 584 578 569 556 542 530 516 505 491 476 461 446 435 423 411
Over Supply = Buyer's Market
Seller's Market
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A Relatively Balanced Market
SELLERS
BUYERS
300
200
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
100
(active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 2016, these two trajectories crossed, and there was no turning back. There are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale!
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price
Price/SF $350,000
$140
$129
$127
$127 $117
$116
$120
Median Price Per SF $113 $101
$97
$100
$87
$227K $224K
$81
$210K
$80
$103
$105
$106
$136K
$113
$215K
$203K
$214K $195K
$184K
$195K $192K $190K
$225K
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$200,000
$200K
Median Sales Price
$150,000
$147K $100,000
$40
$50,000
$20
$0
$300,000
$250,000
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$170K $60
$108
$118
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year+ (2015 to 2016 to 2017) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF
1,500 - 2,500 SF
2,500+ SF
150
140
$138 $132
130
$127 $123
120
$126 logo.indd 1
$121 $117
$117
$115 $108 $104
$105
100
$106
$115
$114
$111
$111
110
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$121
$105
$104
$106
$101 $103 $96
$97
$119
$105
$107
$101
$98
90
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of similar sizes. Looking at 2016 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($107/SF) than that of homes with less than 1500 SF ($132/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace
2,000
1,750
97.8%
98.1%
99.1%
99.1%
98.9%
98.0%
98.0%
1,669
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0%
100.0%
1,438
1,324 1,250
98.0%
95.0%
1,507
1,500
97.0%
98.0%
1,309
1,248 1,153
90.0%
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1,067 967
1,000
870 799
832
1,085
1,122
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1,054
900
85.0%
750 80.0% 500 75.0%
250
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.7% in 2001 before the pace of home sales started
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
70.0%
escalating. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 2010) we saw a decline in this metric to 96%, where we stayed for three years (2010, 2011, 2012). Sellers started selling for slightly more in 2013-2015 when they could obtain 97% of their list price. This increased to 98% in 2016 and thus far is holding steady in 2017.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186 200
180
$133
$149
$141
$140
$136
$129
$128
$129
150
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109
$114
$105
80
$99
100
$130
121
120
$146
139
$137
140
137
$150
140
$144
158
160
84
60
41
40
100
82
45
51
57
54
47
50
38
20
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 2005 and 2010 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 2001 (not shown above; before the housing boom) we still see a 70% drop between 2001 and 2010. The number of new home sales per year has
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. This past year, however, was QUITE different. There were a total of 82 new home sales last year, exceeding the full year of sale seen for each of the past six years -- a welcome sign for new home builders!
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[4] BUYER ACTIVITY Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 180
158
160
141
140
133 118 109
100
99 86
77
80
76
97
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93
70
63
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87
84
82
112
111
109
108
98
94
133 132
119
118
114
137
130
128
126 120
140
87
74 67
63
67
60
40
Annual Pace: 1,312 contracts
20
Annual Pace: 1,259 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,175 contracts
Strong contract activity is typically an indicator of strong months of sales to come. After several strong months in a row in March, April, May and June of 2017 -contract activity fell off a good bit in July 2017 (97 compared to 119 last July) and in August (111 compared to 130 last August) and yet again in September (87 compared
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Nov-14
Oct-14
0
to 99 last September). But, yet, perhaps unexpectedly -- October contracts were higher than last year!? So -- perhaps there is a bit of hope for a small surge in closed sales for the end of the year in 2017. That said, we are likely to see maybe one more month (November) of strong-ish contracts before the December slow down.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels (end of month)
700
640 600
619 560
570 532 539
581 582
568
549
560 532
500
480 451 413
400
418 409 402 400 411 394 393 396 logo.indd 1
368
7/28/2008 3:10:30
356
300
200
100
0
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which may be a significant decision, but it is not
always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been declining drastically over the past year -- and are now 26% lower than they were one year ago.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes
Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos 300
500
493 445 408
400
418
430
439 436
416
392 392
250
435 403
22% Decline in Inventory
372 343
174 300
147
318 152 151 152 150 147 143 139
311 312
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327 327 325 320
341
7/28/2008 3:10:30
290
282 133
200
329
150
125 129
200
100
0
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale has decreased by 22% over the past year, while the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos for sale has
108 108 95
86
94
88
98 84
74
68
100
69
72
39% Decline in Inventory
66 50
0
decreased by a startling 39% over the past year! All we can hope is that these inventory levels will start to climb again (??) at some point -- maybe next Spring!?! There are many buyers in our local market who are anxious to buy, but not finding many properties that they would like to purchase.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
600
500
477 449 408 406 405
400
417
429 434 425 401
419
398
25% Decline in Inventory
368 345
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322 322 316 313 314 312 313 314
321 281
300
200
7/28/2008 3:10:30
163 170
152
153 152 148 150 148 141 134 136 134
100
277
29% Decline in Inventory 112 106
92
87
92
86
89
89
104 80
88
85
79
0
Inventory levels have shifted much more dramatically in the City of Harrisonburg over the past two years as compared to in Rockingham County. We have seen nearly a 29% decline in the number of homes for sale in the City of Harrisonburg when comparing today to one year ago and a 25% decline in Rockingham County
during that same timeframe. If finding a home to buy is difficult right now, it is slightly more difficult if you are looking in the City of Harrisonburg. Fewer and fewer homes are available to purchase. There are currently only 79 homes for sale in the entire City of Harrisonburg!
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[6] DAYS ON MARKET Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
6 - 12 months 134 11%
> 1 year 50 4%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings
> 1 year, 40, 11%
< 30 days, 51, 15%
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3 - 6 months 209 16%
7/28/2008 3:10:30
6 - 12 months, 60, 17%
30 - 59 days, 51, 14%
< 30 days, 580, 46%
60 - 89 days, 47, 13%
60 - 89 days, 110, 9% 3 - 6 months, 107, 30%
30 - 59 days, 179, 14%
Median Days On Market: 36
Median Days On Market: 105
Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median “Days on Market” is 36 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 46% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 30 days
of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you’ll find that 60% of homes that sell go under contract within 60 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
70
60
54
54
54
55
54
55
56
58
58
57
59
59
58
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
59
59
58
58 55
-6% YOY
50 logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
40
30
25
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
28
28
28
29
29
30
31
31
31
32
31
33
32
33
33
34
33
+13% YOY
20
10
8.2
7.8
7.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
7.7
5.4
8.3
8.4
8.3
8.5
9.3
9.6
12.8 12.4 12.3 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.5 12.3 10.3 11.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
5.3
5.6
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.1
6.6
6.4
+5% YOY +3% YOY
0
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in almost all price ranges over the past year,
with the only slight decline (-6%) being in the over $400K price range. The largest increase in sales has been in the $200K - $300K price range where we have seen a 13% year over year increase in the pace of home sales.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
350
313 314 300
283 261 264
274 256
250
248 234
190
200
172 168
174
229
221 217 202
182
172
182
157 154 153 156
50
7/28/2008 3:10:30
190 176
166 143
150
100
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136
141 127
147
137 133 133 136 137 130
117 116 114
125 80 75
73 64
65 55
69
48
66
56
76
64
78 73
75 69
80 72
75 73
82 75
77 72
71 64
64 61
62
73 60 66
48
50
75 74
107
82
85
71
69
99 82 76
132 84
65
131 116
124 121 86
69
81
63
108 79
53
-43% YOY -25% YOY +11% YOY -17% YOY
0
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The lowest price range (under $200K) has seen an astonishing 43% decline in inventory levels over the past year -- which is followed by a 25% decline in the $200K - $300K
price range. The only price range that is actually seeing a year over year increase in inventory levels is the $400K+ price range, where there are 11% more houses on the market today as compared to one year ago. The $300K - $400K price range has seen a 17% year over year decline in inventory levels.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
16 15 14
13
14
Entire Market: 3.8 Months of Housing Supply 12-Month Average of 401 Active Listings 12-Month Average of 106 Sales/Month
14 13
13 12
12
12
13
9
11
9
9
8
6
7 6
4
9
6 6
10 8
5
6
6
5
12
12
12
+8% YOY
11 10
10
7/28/2008 3:10:30
9 8 8
7
8
7
6
8
7 6
6
6
6 6
5
12
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6 6
12
12
11
9
13
12
10 10
$400k +
5
5
5 4
4
4
4
4
2
3
6
6
6
6 6
5
5
4 5 3
4
3
5
5 4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
4
2
4
2
4
2
4
2
4 2
3 2
-21% YOY -33% YOY -39% YOY
0
With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take 12 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers
bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months -- it would only take two months (!!) to burn through the under $200K inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and we are now only close to that in the $300K - $400K price range.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre
$120,000
450
$99,900
408 400
$100,000
$76,500
350
$36,900
150
$32,208
200
$54,500
$56,950
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$59,650
$53,950
$54,900
$56,500
$54,500
$55,000
$56,600
247
$54,500
250
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$42,000
261
$80,000
$59,900
304 300
Stability
$40,000
Decl
111
100
$60,000
ine
85
83
75 58
64
62
63
2010
2011
2012
84
78
64
66
2016
2017
$20,000
50
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
After some modest recovery in the pace of sales of lots of less than an acre over the past few years, there were fewer of these sales in 2016 (64) as compared to 2015 (78) and 2014 (84). That slowing pace of lot sales did not stop sellers in 2015 from being able to obtain higher prices for their building lots with a median sales price
2013
2014
2015
$0
of $59,650 -- but that median price then declined during 2016 to only $54,500. We have already surpassed the number of lot sales seen in 2016 just given the first 10 months of 2017 -- and it seems likely we’ll finish out the year with a higher median sales price for these lots this year as compared to last year.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre
$0 - $40k 34 listings 17%
$100k + 50 listings 25%
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$40k - $60k 44 listings 22% $80k - $100k 41 listings 20%
$60k - $80k 32 listings 16%
201 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $75,400
Despite the fact that only 64 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2016, there are a remarkable 201 lots currently for sale. Furthermore, the median list price of lots for sale ($75,400) is considerably much higher than the 2016 median sales price of $54,500. Given last year’s 64 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would
take 3.1 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, a significant portion of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2016) median sales prices.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more
107
$15,986
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
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$15,171
$13,240
$14,981
$15,000
$15,964
$25,000
$9,932
$9,535
120
$8,333
140
$12,003
160
$15,000
$17,713
168
$13,957
180
$30,000
$20,833
$24,184
200
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$10,000
100
87 77
76
80
$5,000
83 70 57
60
51
44 40
66
73
72 $0
58 49
-$5,000
28 -$10,000
20
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased in pace during 2016 to 73 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since 2007. That said, during that same timeframe, the median price per acre has fallen from $24,184 (in 2007) down to $10,000 (in 2016). Some aspects of this “median price
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-$15,000
per acre” calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year, but it is clear that land prices have been trending slowly down over the past five or so years. We are now seeing an increase in buyer demand in 2017, which seems to be leading to a further increase in the median price per acre.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more
$100k + 24 listings 12% $75k - $100k 12 listings 6% $50k - $75k 11 listings 5%
$0 - $10k 47 listings 23%
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$30k - $50k 24 listings 12% $10k - $20k 54 listings 26% $20k - $30k 34 listings 17%
206 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,259 / Acre
Despite the fact that only 73 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2016, there are 206 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $10,000 per acre, the median list price of the 206 parcels for sale is currently $20,259 per acre. Given last year’s 73
land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 2.8 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS
Recorded Trustee Deeds
1,800 1,669 1,600
1,507 1,438
1,400
1,324
1,309
1,248 1,200 1,153 1,085
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1,122 1,054
1,013
1,000
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936 864
816
794
758
800
600
400 270 200 63 0
2002
75
2003
70 2004
86
2005
93
2006
97
2007
177
118
2008
2009
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded
2010
223
2011
252
2012
222
2013
163
2014
139
2015
136
2016
109
2017
Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, 8.1 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2015 and 9.6 times as many in 2016.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac
6.00%
3.00% Oct-14
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Oct-15
Oct-16
3.94%
3.83%
3.82%
3.92%
3.88%
3.95%
4.03%
4.14%
4.16%
4.32%
4.03% 3.47%
3.42%
3.50%
3.43%
3.48%
3.48%
3.64%
3.71%
3.66%
3.62%
3.79%
4.01%
3.95%
3.76%
3.86%
3.98%
3.84%
4.02%
3.87%
3.68%
3.69%
3.80%
3.66%
3.97%
4.00%
3.87%
4.50%
3.98%
5.00%
4.19%
5.50%
Oct-17
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
Unemployment Rate
Sep-15
As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past three years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4%. After jumping up above 4% in early 2017, interest rates have been steadly declining over the past nine months, and now are (barely) back below 4.0%. The second graph above illustrates
3.5%
3.9%
4.2%
4.0%
3.9% 3.3%
3.6%
3.7%
3.9%
3.6%
4.2%
Sep-16
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.4%
4.4% 3.8% 3.2%
3.50% 3.00% Sep-14
4.1%
4.0%
4.3%
3.9%
4.00%
3.9%
4.1%
4.0%
5.0% 4.4%
5.4% 4.4%
5.0%
5.1%
4.8%
4.4%
4.50%
4.1%
5.00%
4.8%
5.50%
5.0%
6.00%
5.5%
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Sep-17
trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years. A low local unemployment rate and relatively low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable and start to grow in recent years.
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker
Questions? Contact Scott anytime.... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile)
[email protected]
Everything You Need To Know About Buying a Home BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
Local Online Real Estate Resources
Scott P. Rogers, a professional, responsive, knowledgeable, friendly Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors. A native of Montgomery County, Maryland, Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, a quadcopter (drone), property websites for each of his listings, 3D Walk Through technology and Virtual Reality. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as: HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com, SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com and HarrisonburgRealEstateResources.com. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Children’s Choir, is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com and PerfectPotluck.com, serves as a Trustee for Asbury United Methodist Church and coaches middle school volleyball. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events.
Marketing Strategies for Successing Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com
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Comprehensive Data on Area Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Published on November 14, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2017.
7/28/2008 3:10:30