Nov 7, 2014 - January kicked off the year with strong home sales (the best January in .... (page 3) the strong pace of h
NOVEMBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
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November 7, 2014
Executive Summary
The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.
Pace of Home Sales: October
Pace of Home Sales: Year To Date
Buyer Activity
Home Values: October
Home Values: Year To Date
Single Family Home Sales
107 homes sold in October 2014, marking a 23% increase compared to October 2013 when 87 homes sold -- and a 43% increase compared to October 2012.
Median sales prices increased (+19%) and average sales prices increased (+18%) when comparing October 2014 to October 2013.
d 1
882 homes sold thus far in 2014. This marks a 2% increase from the same time period in 2013 when 866 homes had sold, and a 24% increase over 2012 when only 714 homes sold.
Median sales prices and average sales prices both increased slightly (+1.45%, +1.31%) when comparing 2014 YTD to 2013 YTD.
94 buyers committed to buy in October 2014, compared to 70 in October 2013 -- marking a 34% increase in buyer activity over the past year, and a 4% increase over 2012.
656 single family homes have sold thus far in 2014, compared to a total of 766 in 2013. The median sales price has declined to $194,250.
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Days on Market: October
Days on Market: Year To Date
Townhouse Sales
Foreclosures
Supply
Lot Sales
Inventory
Price Per Square Foot
Land Sales
The median time it took for a home to sell was 124 days in October 2014, a 15% increase from 108 days in October 2013 but a 13% decline from 142 days in October 2012.
149 trustee deeds have been recorded in 2014 compared to 882 total home sales reported through the HRAR MLS during the same timeframe.
Inventory levels decreased in October 2014 to 636 residential properties currently for sale, marking no significant change from one year ago when 635 properties were for sale.
The median length of time on the market for homes selling thus far in 2014 is 117 days, a 3% decline compared to 2013 and a 20% decline from 2012.
The under $200k price ranges is balanced (six months of supply) but all other price ranges still show an excess (9 - 21 months) of housing supply.
Median price per square foot of single family homes has risen to $108/sf in 2014, up from $105/sf in 2013.
226 townhouses, duplexes and condos have sold thus far in 2014, compared to a 2013 total of 247 townhomes. The median sales price has increased to $151,000 thus far in 2014.
There have been 68 lot sales of less than an acre thus far in 2014, compared to 79 in all of 2013. Median sales prices have declined to $52,450 thus far in 2014.
48 parcels of land greater than an acre have sold thus far in 2014 compared to 68 land sales during all of 2013. The median price per acre has declined to $10,462.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
d 1
November 7, 2014
HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
# Home Sales
November 7, 2014
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Change ('13 - '14)
October
56
75
87
107
22.99%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
657
714
866
882
1.85%
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Change ('13 - '14)
October
$182,000
$172,000
$160,000
$189,900
18.69%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
$174,000
$175,000
$176,450
$179,000
1.45%
Average Sales Price
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Change ('13 - '14)
October
$185,106
$201,555
$176,011
$208,316
18.35%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
$195,878
$198,884
$199,830
$202,454
1.31%
Median Days on Market
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Change ('13 - '14)
October
130
142
108
124
14.81%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
149
146
121
117
-3.31%
Median Sales Price
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Home sales in October 2014 were the highest in any recent October, marking a 23% year over year increase in monthly home sales - and contributing to the now 1.85% year-to-date increase in home sales during 2014. The pace of home sales in 2014 has lagged behind 2013 all year long - until now. Prices also seem to be recovering,
slowly and steadily, with a 1.45% year-to-date increase in our market’s median sales price and a 1.31% year-to-date increase in the average sales price. Finally, homes are selling a bit (3%) more quickly than they were last year based on year-to-date data.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
# Home Sales
2013
2014
% Change
2013
2014
% Change
October
41
38
-7.32%
46
69
50.00%
Year-To-Date
324
301
-7.10%
542
581
7.20%
d 1
. Rockingham County
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
City of Harrisonburg
Median Sales Price
2013
2014
% Change
2013
2014
% Change
October
$133,500
$170,000
27.34%
$175,100
$204,000
16.50%
Year-To-Date
$163,950
$170,000
3.69%
$189,950
$189,000
-0.50%
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Median Days on Market
2013
2014
% Change
2013
2014
% Change
October
108
106
-1.85%
106
132
24.53%
Year-To-Date
114
106
-7.02%
124
125
0.81%
If we dig a bit deeper into the sales data, looking at how the City and County are performing individually, the first thing we notice is that there has certainly been a decline in (YTD) sales pace in the City (-7.1%) that was not seen in the County (+7.2%). Of interest, however, is that the median sales price is increasing (+4%)
in the City, but has not increased (-0.50%) in the County. These price trends are observed when comparing January through October sales data for 2013 and 2014. Similarly, homes in the City are now selling more quickly both in the City (median of 106 days) as compared to in the County (125 days).
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 140
2011
121
120
108
Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales
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November 7, 2014
103
100
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
67 60
52 47 40
39 40
51 46
67
78 77 73
77
95
84 81
94
2013 2014
112
103
101 97
80
112
2012
October 2014 107 Home Sales
107
107 95
92 87
77
79
68
80 79
87
79
75
67
66 61 55
60
56
58
56
OCT
NOV
DEC
38
20
0 JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
January kicked off the year with strong home sales (the best January in recent memory) but then the pace of home sales lagged significantly in February, March and April, hovering well below previous years. After breaking the cold snap, we did finally see strong home sales in May, June and July -- pulling us within 4% of the
JUL
AUG
SEP
YTD pace of home sales in 2013. The home sales market did not perform as well in August, however, dropping down to 101 home sales, as compared to 112 last August. September and October, however, have been a wonderful surprise, with home sales well above their levels in the same month in previous years.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145
143 140
135 123 114 116
120
107
102 96
100
d 1
87
84
103
96
93
90
90
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
80
76
80
93
100 98
96
56
91
59
102
94
91
76
75
70
69 60
112
107
68
58
56
40
20
Annual Pace: 1,199 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,141 contracts Annual Pace: 1,027 contracts
The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. It is encouraging to see month by month increases in contract activity since January of this year, and the year-over-year comparison for June (+51%), July (+5%), August (+19%), September
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
0
(+6%) and October (+34%) is an exciting trend as we close out 2014. When looking at the annual pace of contracts being signed, we should note that 1,199 buyers have commited to purchase homes in the past year, a slight tick above the previous 12 months.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1100
DEC
1000
1,014 927
900
864
800 700
d 1
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
NOV
758 694 636 587
794
786
715 657
713
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
601
638
867
882
780
775
700
571
588
479
476
366
385
381
301
285
301
230
217
224
147 98 45
139 78 40
151 85 39
2010
2011
2012
532 470 418
522 443
This pretty graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. To compare year-to-date figures, just look at how high the top of the light green segment of the bar chart extends. You’ll note that this year’s pace of home sales (882) is higher
284 181
668
OCT SEP AUG JUL
565
JUN
444
MAY
336 235
114 47
158 103 52
2013
2014
APR MAR FEB JAN
than every year over the past four years (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). We are likely to see 2014 home sales continue to increase beyond the 2013 pace over the next few months based on strong contract activity.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels (end of month)
800
700
655 619
600
572
587
605 599
628 639
661
676 685
663
675 679
693
705
692 688 636
635
608
584 529
555 550
500
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
400
0.2% Increase in Inventory
300
200
100
0
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,
weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels are quite stable (+1 house) over the past year.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes
Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos
600
500
487 462 436 434
447 449
464 466
486
507
526 518
520
529
549
539 535 527
490
478
460
451 402
423
412
400
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
300
200
168
157
136
164 153 158 150
173 175 169
159
145 145
148 155 150 144 133 127 132 138
166
157 161 158
100
0
Two things can be noted from the graph above -- first, inventory levels have not significantly changed in the past year, and second, there is much more variability in single family home inventory as compared to duplex / townhouse / condominium inventory. As shown above, there are currently 478 single family homes listed for
sale, as compared to 490 a year ago (-2%), and 487 two years ago. The inventory levels for attached dwellings (duplex, townhouse, condo) have also stayed rather stable, with 158 active listings, compared to 145 one year ago (+9%) and 168 two years ago.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
600
500
431
444 433 437
420 393 392
400
462 466 463
483 488 480 481 474 479 441
423
407
401 403
367
d 1
454
383 384
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
300
224 199 200
179
195
204 196 195 202
217 214 219
200 194
177
162
172 166
185
201 200
210 217 212 207 182
100
0
Trends in inventory level currently seem to transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a small decline (-6.2%) in the number of properties for sale. In the County, however, there has been slight increase(+2.9%) in the number of homes for sale. Despite relatively
small changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes
$250,000
1,800
+29%
$122,900
$116,000
600
+6%
-0.3%
+4%
$127,700
+17%
829 800
+14%
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$122,588
1,000
+14%
1,153
$169,900
1,071
d 1
+8%
$149,000
1,200
1,248
-3%
+1%
+1%
-25%
$179,000
-13%
-3%
$176,000
-5%
$175,000
+0.2%
$174,000
+15%
$192,983
1,324
+1%
$180,000
1,438
+14%
$186,000
-14%
1,507
1,400
$195,100
1,600
$195,500
1,669 +11%
$200,000
$150,000
1,013 +17%
936 -13%
816
-7%
794 758 +4%
+9%
882
864
$100,000
400
$50,000
200
$0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2013) marked the third year in a row with an increased pace of home sales --
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
showing 17% growth as compared to 4% and 9% in the previous years. As we know (page 3) the strong pace of home sales seen last year is likely to continue to increase this year, and we are seeing a small increase in median sales prices thus far in 2014.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
$200,000
$179,000
$175,000
$177,000
$176,000
$175,600
$178,000
$179,250
$175,225
$176,500
$175,000
$178,000
$176,000
$175,000
$175,250
$175,000
$176,000
$175,375
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$173,000
$175,000
$175,000
$173,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,950
$175,000
$175,000
$174,900
1,500
$173,000
$174,900
$174,900
$175,000
$175,800
2,000
$190,000
$180,000
$170,000
Relatively Stable Annualized Median Sales Price 1,029
1,009
982
991
982
969
991
965
1,019
1,003
1,014
983
1,018
1,006
993
973
955
944
924
894
893
872
864
831
843
830
813
810
801
806
801
794
793
779
779
1,000
887
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
850
d 1
$160,000
$150,000
$140,000
$130,000 500 $120,000
$110,000
0 Oct-11
Oct-12
This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. After
Oct-13
$100,000 Oct-14
over two years of an increasing pace of home sales (orange line) we saw a market slow down that began sometime in late 2013, which seems to have reversed itself about six months ago. Median prices continue to stay predictably between $173,000 and $176,000 - with only a few exceptions, such as $179,000 last month.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes
1,200
800
+24%
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
674 +8%
$147,000
+2%
$136,000
$122,850
+9%
$133,239
600
+16%
798
$194,250
-1%
$195,000
+6%
$196,000
-7%
$185,500
-2%
$199,600
-5%
-12%
$225,000
$175,000
766 -18%
$170,000
+29%
-4%
909
$210,000
868 -2% 851
+8%
+3% 880
-1%
$204,500
+16%
-11%
$215,000
1,000
$223,575
1,024 n/a 1,025
$226,800
$275,000
+20%
654 -14%
563
+12%
656
641 622 +3%
$125,000
-1% 555
400
$75,000
200
$25,000
0
-$25,000 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and the Rockingham County is recovering quite nicely (in most ways) compared to the overall market. Looking at all of 2013, there was a 20% increase in single family home sales as compared to 2012 sales levels. During this time, however, median sales prices actually declined
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1%, after having shown a 6% improvement between 2011 and 2012. Year-todate in 2014, we have seen a tiny (0.4%) continued decline in median sales prices. Hopefully that trend will reverse itself as we close out the year.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos
-7%
529
+10%
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
+5%
+9%
+47%
302
300
$118,500
$94,600
$89,000
+6%
444
$108,200
$103,100
+9%
d 1
400
483
-6% -15%
+14%
$140,000
$120,000 -37%
282
+49%
$100,000
-11%
$80,000
253 -20%
203
203
200
+3%
$160,000
450
$134,950
500
$151,000
-5%
+19%
$138,500
-3%
$134,995
$167,250
+2%
$144,000
+33%
+2%
$180,000
$154,500
-18%
$161,875
600
$160,850
644
$163,800
700
+31%
155
223 -17%
+11%
247
226 $60,000
+32%
169 $40,000
100 $20,000
0
$0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales finally rebounded in 2012 with a 32% increase in the pace of sales. This increase continued in 2013, with an 11% increase in the pace of sales, which was accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
of these properties. This analysis shows the compilation of duplex, townhouse and condominiums sales, and it seems that in 2014 we will see an even larger increase in median sales price. These property values fell further than single family homes so this would be a welcome price recovery for such homeowners and sellers.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS
Recorded Trustee Deeds
1,800 1,669 1,600
1,507 1,438
1,400
1,324 1,248
1,200
1,153 1,071
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
1,013
1,000
936 829
816
800
882
864 758
794
600
400 270 200 56
91
63
75
70
86
93
97
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
118
177
223
252
222 149
0 2000
2001
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in 2013 is definitely lower as it was in 2012, as there were 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2012, 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2013, and now 5.9 times as many sales as foreclosures in 2014.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
60
50
45 43
44
45
45
47
48
48
48
21
22
22
50
51
22
23
52 49
51
51
51
50
49
50
50
48
48
22
22
21
21
21
7.3
7.9
8.0
4.0
3.8
3.7
51
52
45
40
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
30
20
20
20
20
21
21
21
22
22
23
23
22
22
20
21
20
10
0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.0
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.8
7.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
6.9
6.8
6.3
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.7
6.5
7.0
3.5
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.1
4.1
3.8
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, though
9.3
9.8
3.3
3.3
some prices ranges have shown more significant growth than others. The fastest recovery seen over the past 24 months has been in $300K - $400K and $400K+ homes.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
d 1
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
400
350
336 317
305 286
300
298
307
317
325 330 328 309
317
287
308 287
285
274
301
309
321
312
319 294
285
253 250
200
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
187 185
171
191 182 182 182 180 185 180 186 160
169
172
188
139 134 135 107
50
201 203
155
155
150
100
180
190 192
72
60
67
50
64
51
71
51
73
52
72
58
73 66
74 68
82
69
84
88
82
83
82 81
79 70
77
77
75
74
60
59
67
102
87 81
67
105
88
93
92
97 95
90 89
89
77
83
71
0
Inventory levels have remained relatively stable in most price ranges over the past year. The two exceptions have been the under $200K segment of the market, which has seen a 7% decline in inventory levels. We are likely to see inventory levels fall even further over the next few months as we continue through the Fall market and
into the Winter market. When looking at a two year window, the most signficant changes in inventory levels have been in the under $200K price range (-12.5%) and the $300K - $400K price range (+38%).
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
45 42 40
37
36 34
35
35
33
32
30
28
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
27 24
25
25
23 22
17 15
10
5
10 9
8
9 8 7
88
7
89 7
9 8
7
9
6
10 9
6
10 9
7
10 9
7
12
12
8
8
7
7
13
8
6
24
24 21
20
19
20
25 23
12
8
6
16
11
7 6
16
15
14
14
11
11
12
6
6
6
5
6
5
15
13
7
6
14 12
8
6
8
6
9
6
11
9
6
10
10
10
6
6
9 9
6
0
With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 21 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each
month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and this year we have only conistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
d 1
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace
2,000
1,750
97.4%
97.7%
97.8%
98.1%
99.1%
99.1%
98.9%
100.0%
98.0% 96.9%
1,669
97.3% 96.2%
95.7%
1,507
1,500
94.7%
94.8%
95.8% 95.0%
1,438 1,324 1,248
1,250
1,153
90.0%
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
1,071
1,013
1,000
936 829
816
750
882
864 758
85.0%
794
80.0% 500 75.0%
250
0
70.0% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Of note, we have now essentially returned (in 2014) to that pre-boom level -- given the 97.3% average during the first ten months of 2014. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase even further.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF Median Price
Price/SF $300,000
140
$129
$127 $121
$116
120
$97
100
$227K
$224K
$210K
$73
$76
Median Price Per SF $104
$108
$105
$215K $205K
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
80
$250,000
$113
$103
$87
d 1
$117
$200,000
$200K
$196K $186K
$81
$195K
$194K
Median Sales Price
$170K
$150,000
$147K 60
$133K
$136K
$123K $100,000
40
$50,000 20
$0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. When focusing in on 2013 and 2014 data, we can see that the median sales price has started to shift downward, though the price per square foot is increasing.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF
1,500 - 2,500 SF
2,500+ SF
150
140
$138
$140 $133
130
$126 $123
d 1
120
$123
$122
$123
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$116
$117
$119
$112
$115
$114
$105
100
$117
$111
110
$107
$116
$103
$105
$105
$104 $104
$96
$96
2011
2012
$97
90
80 2006
2007
2008
2009
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower
2010
2013
2014
($103/SF) than homes with less than 1500 SF ($117/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre
$120,000
450
$99,900
408 400
$100,000
$76,500
350
$36,900
$30,500
$26,000
165
$32,208
$52,450
$54,900
$56,875
$54,500
$58,300
$55,000
201
200
150
247
$54,500
250
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$42,000
261
d 1
$80,000
$59,900
304 300
$60,000
$40,000
111
100
85
Stability 79
74 58
63
60
61
2009
2010
2011
2012
68
$20,000
50
0
$0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized. We now see that there have been between 58 and 79 lot sales (of less than an acre) for each of the past six years (2008-2013). The median sales price of these lots under one
2008
2013
2014
acre also appears to be stabilizing between $50,000 and $60,000. Looking only at 2014, it seems likely that we will see between 75 and 100 sales of this type and size of property. Prices being were they are (just above $50K) is certainly helping this market to stay steady at this point.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
d 1
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre
$100k + 13 listings 6% $80k - $100k 25 listings 11%
$0 - $40k 39 listings 18%
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$60k - $80k 55 listings 25% $40k - $60k 87 listings 40%
219 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $56,900
Despite the fact that only 79 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 219 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($56,900) is very similar to the 2013 median sales price of $54,900. Given last year’s 79 lot sales, if no other lots were
listed for sale, it would take 2.8 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012, 2013) median sales prices.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more
$30,000
180
$24,184
168
$13,240
$10,000
53
49 42
$8,234
42 40
$16,355
68
$15,000
$10,462
$8,333
$8,245
58
77
83
$9,535
76
80
$20,000
$14,981
87
$12,003
100
$14,552
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$15,424
107
d 1
$15,000
120
$17,713
140
60
$25,000
$21,250
160
48
47
27
$5,000
20
0
$0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2013 as compared to the past five years. We are still not approaching the number of land sales that we saw in record breaking years such as 2004 and 2005, but 2013 has been a significant improvement with 68 land sales. The median price
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
per acre of lots over 1 acre in size has fallen quite a bit over the past two years, from $16,355 per acre to $10,462. The lower ($10,462) median price per acre in 2014 may be a result of only a small number of lots selling thus far.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
d 1
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more
$100k + 15 listings 7% $50k - $100k 25 listings 11%
$0 - $10k 57 listings 26%
$40k - $50k 11 listings 5% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$30k - $40k 19 listings 9%
$20k - $30k 40 listings 18%
$10k - $20k 52 listings 24%
219 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,098 / Acre
Despite the fact that only 68 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 219 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $11,000 per acre, the median list price of the 240 parcels for sale is currently $20,098 per acre. Given
last year’s 68 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 3.2 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186 200
180
$133
$136
$129
$129
150
109
$114
$105
80
$99
89 $94
100
$128
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$146
121
120
$130
139
$137
140
137
$150
138
140
$144
158
160
$87
d 1
November 7, 2014
100
84
60
41
40
45
51
47 50
30
20
0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales. The
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
median price per square foot now seems to have stabilized around $130/SF last year, where it has been for the past four years. As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should slowly start to increase, though we are certainly not seeing that yet in 2014.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings
Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties
Active Residential Listings
Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months > 2 years, 11, 1%
> 2 years, 17, 3%
1 - 2 years, 82, 8% 1 - 2 years, 66, 10% 9 - 12 months, 24, 4% 9 - 12 months, 74, 7%
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
0 - 3 months, 239, 38%
0 - 3 months, 388, 38% 6 - 9 months, 150, 15%
6 - 9 months, 91, 14%
3 - 6 months, 324, 31%
3 - 6 months, 199, 31%
Median Days On Market: 117
Median Days On Market: 125
Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (38%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (31%) and we find that an amazing
69% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Of interest -- 38% of the homes currently on the market for sale have been listed in the past three months.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
d 1
November 7, 2014
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months
0 -3 Months
All Homes
Med = 117
Under $200k
Med = 114
3 - 6 Months
6 - 9 Months
9 - 12 Months
1 - 2 Years
2+ Years
38%
31%
15%
38%
32%
15%
7%
8%
8%
1%
7%
1%
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$200k - $300k
37%
Med = 121
$300k - $400k
33%
40%
Med = 117
$400k and up
27%
35%
Med = 126
0%
10%
20%
15%
16%
30%
30%
40%
The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market only varies slightly based on the price range of the home in question. For example, the median days on market for homes under $200K is 114 days -- only a bit lower than the median of 126 days for homes over $400K. It is important to consider the price range, location, and
50%
8%
60%
70%
6%
5%
10%
80%
7%
2%
11%
13%
90%
0%
5%
100%
many other factors when trying to understand how long it may take to sell your home, but it seems that the price range alone will not necessarily dictate how long it will take to sell.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac
6.00%
3.00% Oct-11
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Oct-12
Oct-13
3.98%
4.20%
4.10%
4.12%
4.14%
4.12%
4.33%
4.40%
4.37%
4.48%
4.32%
4.29%
4.10%
4.32%
4.51%
3.81%
3.57%
3.40%
3.51%
3.53%
3.35%
3.32%
3.41%
3.50%
3.40%
3.59%
3.49%
3.66%
3.75%
4.00%
3.88%
3.99%
3.95%
3.98%
3.98%
3.95%
4.50%
4.10%
5.00%
4.31%
4.46%
5.50%
Oct-14
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
5.0%
5.5%
5.6%
5.5%
5.3% 4.1%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.4%
5.3%
4.50%
4.7%
5.0%
5.3%
5.9%
6.1%
5.7% 4.6%
5.4%
5.00%
4.9%
5.6%
5.1%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
Not Seasonally Adjusted
5.9%
6.5%
6.3%
5.9%
6.0%
5.8%
5.3%
5.50%
5.6%
6.00%
5.7%
6.50%
5.3%
7.00%
5.6%
Unemployment Rate 6.1%
d 1
November 7, 2014
4.00% 3.50% 3.00% Sep-11
Sep-12
As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen relatively stable mortgage interest rates over the past year, but have dipped below 4% during the past month. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past few years, but has been stable
Sep-13
Sep-14
(no change from 5%) over the past 12 months. A relatively stable local job market and extremely low long-term interest rates are certainly helping our local real estate market to stabilize and grow.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.
Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to condo developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction. Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.
d 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Scott serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, Harrisonburg Children’s Museum and the James Madison University Alumni Association. Tambien, Scott habla espanol, y puede ayudar gente y familias quien quisiera utilizar un Realtor bilingue. Si usted necesita servicio en espanol, llamar a Scott. Scott puede ayudarle a comprar o vender casas. In 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
For more information, or with questions, contact: SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Local Online Real Estate Resources
November 7, 2014
Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham HarrisonburgREO.com Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgShortSales.com Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.