Jan 11, 2017 - The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham ..... In contrast, changes in inventory leve
JANUARY 2017 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through December 31, 2016 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
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[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County # Home Sales
January 11, 2017
2013
2014
2015
2016
% Change ('15 - '16)
94
96
84
94
11.90%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)
1,067
1,081
1,126
1,309
16.25%
Last 12 Months (Jan-Dec)
1,067
1,081
1,126
1,309
16.25%
December
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Median Sales Price
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2013
2014
2015
2016
% Change ('15 - '16)
December
$169,500
$178,250
$178,000
$199,900
12.30%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)
$175,000
$178,000
$185,000
$192,500
4.05%
Last 12 Months (Jan-Dec)
$175,000
$178,000
$185,000
$192,500
4.05%
2013
2014
2015
2016
% Change ('15 - '16)
December
41
65
46
65
41.30%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)
66
66
54
52
-3.70%
Last 12 Months (Jan-Dec)
66
66
54
52
-3.70%
Median Days on Market
Home sales increased 12% in December 2016 to add to the overall excitement of the year and we now, finally have a full year of data to work with -- and my oh my, what a year it was in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market! With all of the data in, we find that there were 16.25% more home sales
in 2016 than in 2015 -- rising to an annual pace of 1,309 home sales. The median price rose 4.05% during 2016 to $192,500 -- as compared to $185,000 one year ago. Homes are also selling slightly more quickly -- with a median of 52 days on the market in 2016 as compared to 54 days on the market in 2015.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
# Home Sales
2015
2016
% Change
2015
2016
% Change
December
36
28
-22.22%
48
66
37.50%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)
380
440
15.79%
746
869
16.49%
. Rockingham County
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City of Harrisonburg
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Median Sales Price
2015
2016
% Change
2015
2016
% Change
November
$152,700
$176,750
15.75%
$213,725
$204,000
-4.55%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)
$166,500
$166,750
0.15%
$194,900
$202,000
3.64%
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Median Days on Market
2015
2016
% Change
2015
2016
% Change
November
50
52
4.00%
34
68
100.00%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)
53
35
-33.96%
56
62
10.71%
Looking back at 2016, home sales increased ever so slightly more in the County (+16.49%) than in the City (+15.79%) while at the same time, median prices have risen more in the County (+3.64%) than in the City (-0.15%) during that same timeframe. Homes are selling much faster in the City (median of 35 days) as compared to the
County (median of 62 days). Perhaps the larger number of buyers who purchased in the County (869) as compared to the City (440) combined with slightly faster sales growth in the County to create that larger increase in median sales price in the County over the past year?
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 175 2013
158
2014
150
2015
133
Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales
2016
134
125
104 101
100
85 75
50
December 2016 94 Home Sales
151
67
72 68
56 49
53
JAN
FEB
49
68
72
110
107 104
93
111
125 118 114 108
128
126
116 106
100
111 logo.indd 1
97
112
113
105
97 94 93
97 93
83
81
79
71
7/28/2008 3:10:30
84
68 64
58
25
0
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
The graph above shows the month-by-month breakdown of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County with a red line for 2016 and a blue line for 2015. After a slow and somewhat disappointing month of October home sales (97) home sales shot up to 113 in November, which far exceeds the number of
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
sales seen in each of the past three months of November. The 94 home sales seen in December 2016 also exceeded the amount (84) seen in December of last year, which closes out a strong year of home sales during 2016.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1400 1300 1200 1100
1,067
1000 900 800 700 600
832 747 685 623
0
910
920
839
817
808
743 664
734
500
383
400
400
299
308
226 146 79 40
228 154 87 41
296
2011
2012
462
100
900
497
400
200
988
592
542
300
974
618
500
1,085
697 591 466 355
1,125 1,041 962
1,309
DEC
1,215
NOV
1,102
OCT
1,005
SEP
877
AUG
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857 760 634
719 605
526 392 282
JUN MAY APR
321
MAR
192 121 49
189 117 49
135 67
2013
2014
2015
2016
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. While we saw a significant improvement in the number of annual home sales between 2012 and 2013, we then saw just slow and steady growth over the subsequent two years
JUL
454
248 167 109 46
220
7/28/2008 3:10:30
FEB JAN
(2014, 2015) -- but that all changed in 2016. Annual home sales finished out the year at 1,309 sales -- the highest (by far) that we have seen anytime in the past five years. In fact -- this marks a 57% increase in annual home sales when comparing 2011 to 2016. Now we must wonder -- can 2017 keep pace with 2016?
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
$190,000
$190,000
$186,250
$185,750
$185,000
$185,000
$186,500
$186,000
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$180,000
$179,900
$179,000
$179,700
$178,000
$176,500
$177,000
$174,321
$174,700
$174,900
$173,000
$176,500
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
2,000
$175,000
2,500
$189,000
# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
$192,500
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes $200,000
$190,000
$180,000
$170,000
Stable 1,309
1,299
1,265
1,273
1,242
1,210
1,204
1,187
1,164
1,156
1,143
1,125
1,138
1,127
1,134
1,148
1,128
1,145
1,122
1,119
1,107
1,093
1,085
1,078
1,081
1,077
1,058
1,030
1,040
1,033
1,022
1,019
1,055
1,042
1,074
1,067
1,143
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1,500
$160,000
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$150,000
$140,000
1,000
$130,000
$120,000
500
$110,000
0 Dec-13
Dec-14
This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. Over
Dec-15
$100,000 Dec-16
the past 30 months we have seen relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales, which has now risen to more than 1,300 sales/year. And after many years of median sales prices hovering between $173K and $175K, they finally made their way up to $185,000 by summer 2015 and have now risen to $192,500.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes
$250,000
1,800
+8%
+14%
1,153
1,071 1,000
+4%
$127,700
n/a
$122,588
800
$122,900
+17%
$149,000
+14%
$169,900
1,200
1,248
-6%
+1%
+2%
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1,067
+2%
+19% -10%
870
-8%
799
+4%
832
+8%
+4%
$192,500
+4%
$200,000
1,309 +17%
-23%
967
+2%
$185,000
-13%
-3%
$178,000
-5%
$175,000
n/a
$172,375
+15%
$192,983
1,324
+1%
$169,900
1,400
$179,900
1,438
+14%
$185,000
-14%
1,507
$195,000
1,600
$195,100
1,669 +11%
1,085
1,122
+3%
$150,000
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900
$100,000
600
400
$50,000
200
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2016) marks the sixth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
$0
(+17%) in the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 4% increase in the median sales price. This 17% increase in the pace of sales far exceeded the increases seen in the prior two years (2%, 3%) and likely contributed to the additional 4% increase in the median sales price.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes
1,400
1,000 851
800 $147,000
$136,000
+2%
+8%
-1%
+5%
+7%
$214,000
$200,000
$190,000
-2%
$192,000
+6%
$175,000
+20% logo.indd 1
798
813
+1%
819
$225,000
978
909 -12%
+16%
$133,239
600
+24%
880 $170,000
-2%
+3%
-6%
-11%
+16%
868
-4%
$195,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$184,000
-6%
$195,000
-4%
$203,000
-1%
$215,000
+8%
$223,575
1,200
$226,800
$210,000
$275,000
n/c
818
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+21%
-15%
678
-11%
602
-1%
595
+10%
653
+3%
672
$125,000
$75,000 400
$25,000
200
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County improved significantly between 2015 and 2016. After three years of relatively little change in the number of single family home sales (813, 819, 818) we saw a sudden and dramatic increase to 978 home sales. Looking back, there have only been two
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-$25,000
years (2004, 2005) when more single family homes were sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 20% increase in the pace of single family home sales was accompanied by a 7% increase in the median sales price.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos
529
+47%
302
300
+14%
+10% +5%
-6%
-15%
$118,500
+9%
444
$108,200
$103,100
+9%
$94,600
400
483
-1%
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
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-36%
289
304 -7%
+49%
268 228
-24%
200
+3%
n/c
450
$134,950
500
+11%
$149,500
-9%
$151,750
-3%
$151,750
+19%
$137,250
-4%
$132,750
$166,635
+2%
$140,500
+33%
+2%
$180,000
$154,250
-18%
$159,545
600
$163,800
644
$160,850
700
204
203
-12%
179
+11%
254
+5%
266
+9%
331
+14%
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
+27%
$40,000 100 $20,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
After six years (2005-2011) of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has been rebounding since 2012. The 331 sales seen in 2016 marked the highest level of sales seen anytime between 2008 and 2016. Despite the continuing increase in the sale of townhouses
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
$0
(and duplexes and condominiums) we did not see any further market recovery in 2015 when it comes to price, and in fact, the median sales price of these properties dropped slightly to $149,500 -- down 1% from the median sales price of $151,750 in both 2014 and 2015.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers 1000 900
931 929 924 913 904 893 881 870 860 849 839 831 822 813 801 791 780 770 757 744 730 718 705 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 630 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 607 608 609 611 610 610 609 606 599 600 603 619 635 631 648 654
Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market
SELLERS
700 600 500 400 300
Large Over Supply = Buyer's Market
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7/28/2008 3:10:30
A Relatively Balanced Market
379 376 368 374 372 370 352 365 373 386 389 389 397 397 401 403 401 406 407 416 422 416 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 503 509 492 507 510 502 496 482 484 491 495 491 504 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 560 554 565 560 559 565 560 570 570 577 581 593 592 584 578 569 556 542 530
800
BUYERS
200 100
It happened! It really happened! Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
0
many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. And finally, in June 2016, these two trajectories crossed! There are more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale!
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price
Price/SF $350,000
140
$129
$127 $117
$116
120
$113 $101
$87 $76
$227K $224K
$81
$210K
$103
$105
$133K
$136K
$106
$113
$108
$250,000
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$215K
$203K
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$214K $195K
$184K
$195K $192K
$170K 60
$300,000
Median Price Per SF
$97
100
80
$127
$190K
Median Sales Price
$150,000
$147K $100,000
40
$50,000
20
0
$200,000
$200K
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
$0
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year (2015 to 2016) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF
1,500 - 2,500 SF
2,500+ SF
150
$140 140
$138
130
$127 $123
$123
120
$126 logo.indd 1
$121 $117
$119
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$121
$117
$115 $111
$111
$108
110
$104 $105
100
$106
$115
$114
$105
$104
$106
$101 $103 $96
$97
$105 $101
$98
90
80
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. In looking at 2016 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($105/SF) than that of homes with less than 1500 SF ($126/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace
2,000
1,750
97.7%
97.8%
98.1%
99.1%
99.1%
98.9%
98.0%
98.0%
1,669
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0%
1,438
1,324
1,309
1,248
1,250
100.0%
95.0%
1,507
1,500
97.0%
98.0%
1,153
90.0%
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1,071
1,067 967
1,000
870 799
832
1,085
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1,122
900
85.0%
750 80.0% 500 75.0%
250
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.7% in 2001 before the pace of home sales started
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
70.0%
escalating. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 2010) we saw a decline in this metric to 96%, where we stayed for three years (2010, 2011, 2012). Sellers started selling for slightly more in 2013-2015 when they could obtain 97% of their list price, and this has now increased to 98% in 2016.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186 200
180
$133
$141
$140
$136
$129
$128
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150
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109
$114
$105
$99
80
$94
100
$129
121
120
$130
139
$137
140
137
$146
138
$150
140
$144
158
160
84
82
60
41
40
45
51
100
54
47
50
38
20
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 2006 and 2010 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 2001 (before the housing boom) we still see a 70% drop between 2001 and 2010. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. This past year, however, was QUITE different. There were a total of 82 new home sales last year, exceeding the full year of sale seen for each of the past six years -- a welcome sign for new home builders!
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[4] BUYER ACTIVITY Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 180
158
160 145 140
141
135
133 123
120 107 100
118
112
109 102
80
77
75
99
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86
68 60
109
108
98
94
91
119
118
114
130
128
126
76
7/28/2008 3:10:30
93
84
82 70
63
74
67
63
56
40
Annual Pace: 1,331 contracts 20
Annual Pace: 1,192 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,172 contracts
This graph clearly illustrates what a busy buying season it has been over the past year. We have seen an average of 111 contracts per month over the past year -- as compared to an average of only 98 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. These strong contract numbers, clearly, are leading to the busy season of
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
0
closings -- and we are likely to see a relatively decent month of closings in January based on the November and December contract figures shown above. Contracts will likely start to slowly rise during January and February before really starting to jump in March 2017.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels (end of month)
700
623 600
659 653 644 635 636 640
619
577 538 542 541
560
570
581 582
532 539
500
568
549
560 532 480 451 413
400
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7/28/2008 3:10:30
300
200
100
0
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which may be a big, significant,
weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been declining over the past year, to a current level that is 26% down from a year ago.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes
Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos
600
270
501 500
477
250
487 481 485 493
445
400
382
391
156
405
160 151
408
381
172 300
445
178
418
439 436 430
230
416
435 403
392 392
210
372 343
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182
318
174 166 157
190
7/28/2008 3:10:30
170
154
151
147
200
152 150
147
152 151 143
139
150
133 125
129
130
108 108 100
110
95 90
0
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale has decreased by 22% over the past year, while the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos for sale has
70
decreased by 38% over the past year. As is evident, inventory levels are much lower in the Winter market, and we may see further declines in inventory levels over the next few months as we continue through the winter real estate market.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
600
500
461 438
400
388 382
478
477 454 449 448
449 408 406 405
396
417
429 434 425 401
419
398
372
368 logo.indd 1
345
7/28/2008 3:10:30
321 300
200
150
160
169
181 185
198
189 190 186 188
163 170
100
152
136 134
153 152 148 150 148 141 134
112 106
92
-21% YOY
-39% YOY
0
Trends in inventory level currently seem to, in many ways, transcend the City / County divide, but when looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a relatively sizable decline (-39%) over the last year in the number of properties for sale, while in the County, there has been a slightly smaller (-21%)
decline in the number of homes for sale. Despite relatively modest changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[6] DAYS ON MARKET Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings
< 30 days, 36, 9%
> 1 year, 54, 4% > 1 year, 57, 14% 6 - 12 months, 207, 16%
30 - 59 days, 50, 12% logo.indd 1
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< 30 days, 498, 38% 6 - 12 months, 102, 25%
3 - 6 months, 229, 18%
60 - 89 days, 56, 13%
60 - 89 days, 124, 9% 30 - 59 days, 197, 15%
3 - 6 months, 112, 27%
Median Days On Market: 52
Median Days On Market: 139
Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median “Days on Market” is 52 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 38% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 30 days
of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you’ll find that 53% of homes that sell go under contract within 60 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
70
60
53
52
52
53
53
52
54
54
55
54
54
54
54
55
54
55
56
58
58
57
59
59
58
60
60
+11% YOY
50 logo.indd 1
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40
30
20
20
21
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
25
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
28
28
28
29
29
30
30
+13% YOY
20
10
0
9.8
3.9
10.3 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.8 10.7
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.5
5.1
4.8
9.6
4.8
9.5
5.0
8.7
8.2
5.2
5.4
7.8 5.4
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past year, with the
7.4 5.4
7.7
5.4
8.3
5.5
8.4
5.7
8.3
5.9
8.5
5.3
9.3
9.6
12.8 11.5 12.3 10.3 11.3
5.6
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.2
+72% YOY +14% YOY
most significant (drastic!) increase being in the $300K - $400K price range (+72% year-over-year) with the other three price ranges (under $200K, $200K - $300K, $400K+) each seeing between a 11% and 14% year-over-year increase.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
350
316
321 300 299 302
287
300
311 313 314 283
269 272 265
261 264
274 256
250
248 234
229
221 217 202
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200
158 155
172
171
177
190
182 178
157
190 173 172 168
174
182
172
182
88 57
50
54
58 57
70 53 52
63
68 67
73
83 80
83 80
84
71
79 73
80 75
73
157 154 153 156
64
65 55
69
48
66 56
76 64
176 143
78 73
75 69
80 72
75 73
190
166
150
100
7/28/2008 3:10:30
82 75
77 72
71 64
136
64
127
62
61 48
-38% YOY
-19% YOY
+13% YOY -26% YOY
0
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The lowest price range (under $200K) has seen the largest decline (-38%) in inventory levels over the past year -- with buyers in that price range now only having 176
options as compared to 283 one year ago. The $200K - $300K price range has seen a 19% decline in inventory, which is relatively similar to the 26% decline seen in the $300K-$400K price range. The only price range where inventory levels has increased is the $400K+ price range where inventory levels have climbed 13% YOY.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k 18 17 16
14
15 14
14
14
17
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
17 15
14
Entire Market: 3.8 Months of Housing Supply 413 Active Listings 12-Month Average of 109 Sales/Month
15 13
12
$400k +
14
12
10
8
8 7
8 6
6
4
6
5
6
5
5
5
8
8
8
8
8
5
6
6
6
9 9
8
5
7 7 6
6
6 6
2
6 5
11
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9 9
7
7
7
6
9
9
12 11
10
8
13
13
12
12
8
14
10 8
9 8
6 6
5
6 5
8
7
8
6
6 6
5 4
4
-1% YOY
6
6 5
7/28/2008 3:10:30
7
7
6 5
8
10
4
4
4
3
5
4
5 4
3
3
-57% YOY -29% YOY -44% YOY
0
With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take 10 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers
bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months -- it would only take three months (!!) to burn through the under $200K inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and we are now seeing that (or less) in three of the four price ranges illustrated above.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre
$120,000
450
$99,900
408 400
$100,000
$76,500
350
$36,900
$32,208
150
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$54,500
$59,650
$53,950
$54,900
$56,500
$54,500
$56,600
$55,000
201
$30,500
200
247
$54,500
250
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$42,000
261
$80,000
$59,900
304 300
Stability
$40,000
Declin
111
100
$60,000
e
85
83
75 58
64
62
63
2010
2011
2012
84
78
64
$20,000
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
After some modest recovery in the pace of sales of lots of less than an acre over the past few years, there were fewer of these sales in 2016 (64) as compared to 2015 (78) and 2014 (84). That slowing pace of lot sales did not stop sellers in 2015 from being able to obtain higher prices for their building lots with a median sales price
2009
2013
2014
2015
2016
$0
of $59,650 -- but that median price then declined during 2016 to only $54,500. Despite the lack of increase in lot sales, we are seeing quite a bit of stability in the median sales price, which has bounced around between $54,000 and $60,000 since 2008 and continuing through 2016.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre
$100k + 17 listings 12%
$80k - $100k 18 listings 13%
$60k - $80k 32 listings 23%
$0 - $40k 28 listings 20%
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$40k - $60k 47 listings 33%
142 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $58,500
Despite the fact that only 64 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 142 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($58,500) is not too much higher than the 2016 median sales price of $54,500. Given last year’s 64 lot sales, if no
other lots were listed for sale, it would take 2.2 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, a significant portion of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2016) median sales prices.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more
107
$10,000
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$20,000
$15,171
$13,240
$14,981
$15,000
$15,964
$25,000
$9,932
$9,535
$8,333
120
$8,245
140
$12,003
160
$15,000
$17,713
168
$13,957
180
$30,000
$20,833
$24,184
200
$15,000
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$10,000
100
87 77
76
80
$5,000
83 70 57
60
51
44
42 40
66
73 $0
58 49
-$5,000
28 -$10,000
20
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased in pace during 2016 to 73 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since 2007. That said, during that same timeframe, the median price per acre has fallen from $24,184 (in 2007) down to $10,000 (in 2016). Some aspects of this “median price
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-$15,000
per acre” calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year, but it is clear that land prices have been trending slowly down over the past five or so years. We will likely need to see more buyer activity (demand) before we will see any meaningful increases in the median price per acre.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more
$75k - $100k 4 listings 3%
$100k + 12 listings 8%
$50k - $75k 10 listings 7%
$0 - $10k 48 listings 32% logo.indd 1
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$30k - $50k 21 listings 14%
$20k - $30k 16 listings 11% $10k - $20k 40 listings 26%
151 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $17,220 / Acre
Despite the fact that only 73 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2016, there are a remarkable 151 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $10,000 per acre, the median list price of the 151 parcels for sale is currently $17,220 per acre. Given
last year’s 73 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 2.1 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS
Recorded Trustee Deeds
1,800 1,669 1,600
1,507 1,438
1,400
1,324
1,309
1,248 1,153
1,200 1,071
1,085
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1,122
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1,013
1,000
936 864
816
794
758
800
600
400 270 200
0
91
2001
63 2002
75
2003
70 2004
86
2005
93
2006
118
97
2007
2008
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded
177
2009
2010
223
2011
252
2012
222
2013
163
2014
139
2015
136
2016
Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, 8.1 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2015 and 9.6 times as many in 2016.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac
6.00%
3.00% Dec-13
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Dec-14
4.32%
4.03% 3.47%
3.42%
3.50%
3.43%
3.48%
3.48%
3.64%
3.66%
3.71%
3.62%
3.79%
4.01%
3.95%
3.76%
3.86%
3.84%
3.98%
4.02%
3.87%
3.68%
3.69%
3.80%
3.66%
4.00%
3.87%
3.97%
4.20%
3.98%
4.10%
4.12%
4.14%
4.12%
4.33%
4.40%
4.37%
4.50%
4.32%
5.00%
4.48%
5.50%
Dec-15
Dec-16
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
3.8%
4.2%
4.2%
4.0%
4.4%
4.4% 3.8%
4.1%
4.0%
3.2%
3.50% 3.00% Nov-13
4.3%
3.9%
4.1%
4.0%
4.4%
5.0%
3.9%
4.00%
5.5%
5.4% 4.4%
5.0%
5.1%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.6%
Not Seasonally Adjusted
4.8%
4.9%
5.2% 4.1%
4.50%
4.7%
5.00%
4.4%
5.50%
4.7%
6.00%
5.3%
Unemployment Rate
Nov-14
As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past two years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4%. With average mortgage rates now starting to increase, it seems unlikely that we will see rates in the 3.X% range again anytime soon. The second graph above illustrates trends in
Nov-15
Nov-16
the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years. A low local unemployment rate and relatively low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable and start to grow in recent years.
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker
Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, elevated photography equipment, property websites for each of his listings and Matterport 3D Showcase. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgApps.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com and many others. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Children’s Choir and East Rockingham Recreation Association, and is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, camping, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events.
Questions? Contact Scott anytime.... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile)
[email protected]
Everything You Need To Know About the Home Buying Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
Local Online Real Estate Resources
Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Scott provides detailed, professional and responsive service to all of his clients, whether they are buying their first home or have been through many housing transitions. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/ Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
Marketing Strategies for Successing Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
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Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Published on January 11, 2017 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2017.
7/28/2008 3:10:30