Feb 10, 2016 - An analysis of real estate acfivity through January 31, 2016 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkho
FEBRUARY 2016 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through January 31, 2016 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
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[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
# Home Sales
February 10, 2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
% Change ('15 - '16)
January
49
53
49
67
36.73%
Year-To-Date (Jan)
49
53
49
67
36.73%
Last 12 Months (Feb-Jan)
908
1,069
1,074
1,143
6.42%
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Median Sales Price
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2013
2014
2015
2016
% Change ('15 - '16)
January
$155,001
$156,000
$195,000
$194,000
-0.51%
Year-To-Date (Jan)
$155,001
$156,000
$195,000
$194,000
-0.51%
Last 12 Months (Feb-Jan)
$172,000
$175,000
$179,900
$185,000
2.83%
Median Days on Market
2013
2014
2015
2016
% Change ('15 - '16)
January
134
56
81
77
-4.94%
Year-To-Date (Jan)
134
56
81
77
-4.94%
Last 12 Months (Feb-Jan)
89
64
66
55
-16.67%
Home sales were brisk in January 2016, with 67 closed sales -- as compared to 49, 53 and 49 during the previous three months of January. This marks a 37% year-overyear increase in January home sales -- and contributes to the 6.4% year-over-year increase we have seen in annualized home sales. Median sales prices are also on
the rise -- with a 2.83% year-over-year increase in the annualized median sales price -- even though the median sales price in January happened to decline by 0.51% as compared to last January. Homes sold more quickly in January (median of 77 days on the market) as compared to last January (median of 81 days).
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
# Home Sales
2015
2016
% Change
2015
2016
% Change
January
18
27
50.00%
31
40
29.03%
Year-To-Date
18
27
50.00%
31
40
29.03%
. Rockingham County
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City of Harrisonburg
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Median Sales Price
2015
2016
% Change
2015
2016
% Change
January
$194,500
$168,000
-13.62%
$206,000
$214,000
3.88%
Year-To-Date
$194,500
$168,000
-13.62%
$206,000
$214,000
3.88%
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Median Days on Market
2015
2016
% Change
2015
2016
% Change
January
172
88
-48.84%
71
76
7.04%
Year-To-Date
172
88
-48.84%
71
76
7.04%
As you consider the data in this chart, bear in mind that this only reflects one month of data, and as such, the small sample size can distort overall market trends. As such, let’s ignore the trends completely (this month) and note that there are more homes selling in the County (40) than the City (27) and at much higher prices in the
County (median of $214K) as compared to the City ($168K) and more speedily in the County (median of 76 days on the market) as compared to the City (median of 88 days). When we ge tto next month’s report we will look a bit more closely at the trends over time.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 150
2013 2014 2015
134
130
Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales
January 2016 67 Home Sales
125 118 110
110
104
111
104 107
108
2016
126
116 111 106
105
100
97
93
90
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72 67
68
56 50
49 49
53
97 93
93
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84
83
81 70
112
79
72
71
68 64
58
30
10 JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Monthly home sales were anything but predictable in 2015, with many summer months (May, June, August) showing stronger sales than any other similar month in recent years -- and with a new all time monthly high (134 sales) in June 2015. Then, September, October and December showed slower monthly sales as compared to
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
the same months in 2014. We are starting the year off well in 2016, with the highest month of January sales in recent history - and it seems reasonable to think that we will see another strong month of sales in February, though January’s one significant snowfall may affect that trend.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1200 1100
1,067
1,085
974
988
900
910
920
832
839
817
747 685
743
1000 900 800 700 600
623
497
500
383
400
400
299
308
226
228
146 79 40
154 87 41
2011
2012
400
462
200 100 0
734 618
542
DEC
1,041
NOV
962
OCT
857
SEP
808
AUG
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592
500
300
664
1,125
296 192
697 591 466 355 248
760
JUL
634
JUN
526
MAY
392
APR
282
MAR
189
121 49
167 109 46
117 49
67
2013
2014
2015
2016
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As is evident, there were more home sales in 2015 than in any other year in the prior four years. The largest year-over-year recovery seems to have occured between
7/28/2008 3:10:30
FEB JAN
2012 and 2013 -- but we also saw a larger increase in home sales last year (2014 to 2015) than we saw the previous year (2013 to 2014). The total of 1,125 home sales seen in 2015 is a high bar that I hope our market will be able to reach and potentially exceed in 2016.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
$200,000 $185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$180,000
$179,900
$179,000
$179,700
$178,000
$176,500
$177,000
$174,700
$174,321
$174,900
$173,000
$175,000
$176,500
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,200
$174,800
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$172,100
$172,700
$175,000
$172,375
2,000
$172,000
2,500
$190,000
$180,000
Stable
$170,000
Stable Annualized Median Sales Price
1,143
1,138
1,125
1,134
1,127
1,148
1,145
1,128
$160,000 1,122
1,119
1,093
1,078
1,085
1,081
1,077
1,058
1,030
1,040
1,033
1,022
1,042
1,019
1,074
1,055
1,067
1,067
1,035
1,053
1,042
1,021
1,000
992
968
938
934
908
1,000
1,107
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1,500
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$150,000
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
500
$110,000
0 Jan-13
Jan-14
This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. Over
Jan-15
$100,000 Jan-16
the past 21 months we have seen relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales, which has now risen to 1,143 sales/year. And after many years of median sales prices hovering between $173K and $175K, we have seen steady increases over the past 18 months up to their current level of $185,000.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes
$250,000
1,800
+8%
+14%
1,153
1,071 1,000
+4%
$127,700
n/a
$122,588
800
$122,900
+17%
$149,000
+14%
$169,900
1,200
1,248
-6%
+1%
+2%
-23% logo.indd 1
967
1,067
870
-8%
799
+4%
832
+8%
+4%
1,085
$194,000
$200,000
1,122
+3%
+2%
+19% -10%
+2%
$185,000
-13%
-3%
$178,000
-5%
$175,000
n/a
$172,375
+15%
$192,983
1,324
+1%
$169,900
1,400
$179,900
1,438
+14%
$185,000
-14%
1,507
$195,000
1,600
$195,100
1,669 +11%
$150,000
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900
$100,000
600
400
$50,000
200 67 $0
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2015) marks the fifth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase (+3%) in
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 4% increase in the median sales price. We have now seen increases in the median sales price for four years in a row, though they were small (+1%, +2%, +2%) increases up until 2015 when we saw a 4% increase in the median sales price.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes
1,400
1,000 851
800 $147,000
$136,000
+2%
+8%
-1%
+5%
$216,500
$200,000
$190,000
-2%
$192,000
+6%
909
$225,000
$175,000 -12%
+16%
$133,239
600
+24%
880 $170,000
-2%
+3%
-6%
-11%
+16%
868
-4%
$195,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$184,000
-6%
$195,000
-4%
$203,000
-1%
$215,000
+8%
$223,575
1,200
$226,800
$210,000
$275,000
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798
813
+1%
819
n/c
818
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+21%
-15%
678
-11%
602
-1%
595
+10%
653
+3%
672
$125,000
$75,000 400
$25,000
200 48 0
-$25,000 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County told two two different stories last year (2015), depending on whether we were evaluating the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2015) marked the third year in a row with between 810 and 820 home sales -- so, virtually no change in the pace of
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
home sales. Over the past year, however, the median sales price of single family homes increased by 5% to $200,000 -- which is the first time we have seen a $200K or higher median sales price since 2005-2009. It is encouraging that sales prices are increasing even without substantial increases in the number of home sales.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos
529
+47%
302
300
+14%
+10% +5%
-6%
-15%
$118,500
+9%
444
$108,200
$103,100
+9%
$94,600
400
483
$140,000
$120,000
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-36%
289
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$100,000 304 -7%
+49%
268 228
-24%
200
+3%
$160,000
450
$134,950
500
n/c
+11%
$152,000
-9%
$151,750
-3%
$151,750
+19%
$137,250
-4%
$132,750
$166,635
+2%
$140,500
+33%
+2%
$180,000
$154,250
-18%
$159,545
600
$163,800
644
$160,850
700
204
203
-12%
179
+11%
254
+5%
266
+14%
$80,000
$60,000
+27%
$40,000 100 $20,000 19 0
$0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has been rebounding since 2012. The 304 sales seen in 2015 marked the highest level of sales seen anytime between 2008 and 2015. Despite the continuing increase in the sale of townhouses (and duplexes
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
and condominiums) we did not see any further market recovery in 2015 when it comes to price. The median sales price of these properties was again $151,750 -the exact same median sales price we saw in 2014.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers 1000 900
881 883 889 893 899 906 915 921 927 932 932 931 929 924 913 904 893 881 870 860 849 839 831 822 813 801 791 780 770 757 744 730 718 705 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 630 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 607 608 609 611 610
Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market
SELLERS
800 700
Huge Over Supply = Buyer's Market
600
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7/28/2008 3:10:30
500 400 300
413 413 409 425 423 438 417 410 401 394 381 379 376 368 374 372 370 352 365 373 386 389 389 397 397 401 403 401 406 407 416 422 416 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 503 509 492 507 510 502 496 482 484 491 495 491 504 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 560 554 565 560 559 565 560 570
Approaching a Balanced Market
BUYERS
200 100
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
0
(active listings) at any given time. As you can see, our market had an extreme imbalance several years ago, with more sellers in the market than were needed based on the buyers in the market. Over the past four years we have been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price
Price/SF $350,000
140
$129
$127
$300,000
$117
$116
120
$101
$87 $76
$227K
$81
Median Price Per SF
$113
$97
100
80
$127
$103
$105
$133K $136K
$111
$108
$250,000
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$224K
$210K
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$217K
$215K $203K
$195K
$184K
$195K
$192K $190K
$170K 60
$106
$200,000
$200K
Median Sales Price
$150,000
$147K $100,000
40
$50,000
20
$0
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year (2014 to 2015) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF
1,500 - 2,500 SF
2,500+ SF
150
$140 140
$138
130
$127 $123
$123
120
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$117 $119
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$121
$121
$117
$115
$114
$111
$111
$110
$108
110
$104 $105
100
$106
$105
$104
$106 $108
$101 $103 $96
$97
$119
$101
$98
90
80 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. In looking at 2015 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($101/SF) than homes with less than 1500 SF ($121/ SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace
2,000
1,750
97.7%
97.8%
98.1%
99.1%
99.1%
98.9%
98.0%
98.0%
1,669
100.0%
97.0%
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0% 95.0%
1,507
1,500
1,438 1,324 1,248
1,250
1,153
90.0%
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1,071
1,067 967
1,000
1,085
900
870 799
7/28/2008 3:10:30
1,122
85.0%
832
750 80.0% 500 75.0%
250
67 0
70.0% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Of
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
note, last year we almost returned to that pre-boom level -- given the 97% average during 2015 compared to the 97% - 98% average in 2000 - 2002. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase a bit more.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186 200
180
$133
$140
150
$126
$136
$129
$128
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109
$114
$105
$99
80
$94
100
$129
121
120
$130
139
$137
140
137
$146
138
$150
140
$144
158
160
100
84
60
41
40
45
51
54
47
50
38
20
7 0
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales, and
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
declined again in 2014 to 38 sales, but finally bounced back up to 54 sales last year -- the highest number seen since pre-2010. The median price per square foot has risen steadily over the past two years to its current level of $140/SF.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[4] BUYER ACTIVITY Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145
143 140
135 126
123 114 116
120
107 100
96
93
107
103 96
118
112
109 102
108
98
94
91
91
118
114
86
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80
76
77
75
70
7/28/2008 3:10:30
82
76 70
68
63
74 67
56
60
40
Annual Pace: 1,200 contracts
20
Annual Pace: 1,170 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,153 contracts
The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. This year (2016) is off to a solid start, with 74 contracts signed during January. This matches the pace of contract signing we saw last January, and indicates that we should likely see a similar
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
0
amount of closed sales in February and/or March of this year. Of note, the annual pace of contracts being signed has declined over the past year -- but the annual pace of closed sales has increased. This likely indicates that a higher proportion of signed contracts are successfully making it to settlement.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels (end of month)
800
675 679
700
693
705
692 688 636
608 600
555 550
623
604
659 653 644 635 636 640
577
619 560
538 542 541
532
500 logo.indd 1
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400
300
200
100
0
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,
weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been relatively stable over the past year, with a small (2%) year over year decline.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes
Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos
600
260
520 500
529
549
539 535 527 501 478
460 423
477 445
440
412 382
400
487 481 485 493
391
240
445 408
405 381
392
220
0.25% Increase in Inventory logo.indd 1
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200 300
178
182
166
200
155 148
157
161
166
164 158
156
150 144
138
100
180
174
172
132
0
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale and the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos on the market for sale have both remained
160 151
157
154
151
147
0.66% Decline in Inventory
152
150
160
140
120
remarkably steady when comparing today’s inventory levels with inventory levels during the same timeframe one year ago. As is evident, inventory levels are much lower now in the Winter market -- and we are not likely to see significant increases until March or April.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
600
483 488 480 481 474 479
500
388 382
383 384
478
477 454 449 448
438
432
423 400
461
454
449 408 406
396 372
+6% YOY
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300
200
172 166
185
201 200
210 217 212 207 182
172 150
160
169
181 185
198
189 190 186 188
163 170
152
136
-15% YOY
100
0
Trends in inventory level currently seem to, for the most part, transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has only been a relatively sizable decline (-15%) over the last year in the number of properties for sale. In the County, however, there has been a smaller increase (+6%)
in the number of homes for sale. Despite relatively small changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[6] DAYS ON MARKET Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings
> 1 year, 50, 9%
> 1 year, 78, 7%
< 30 days, 65, 12%
30 - 59 days, 28, 5%
6 - 12 months, 145, 13%
< 30 days, 419, 37%
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60 - 89 days, 61, 11%
6 - 12 months, 150, 28% 3 - 6 months, 206, 18%
3 - 6 months, 188, 35% 60 - 89 days, 119, 10%
30 - 59 days, 176, 15%
Median Days On Market: 55
Median Days On Market: 139
Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, over 1 out of 3 homes (37%) that sells goes under contract less than 30 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that go under contract in the next 60 days (15%) and we
find that more than half of homes (52%) that sell go under contract within the first 60 days of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
60
51
51
50
50
48
48
49
50
50
51
52
52
53
52
52
53
53
52
54
54
55
54
54
54
54
55
+6% YOY
40 logo.indd 1
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30
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
20
21
21
20
9.8
9.8
9.8
20
21
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
25
9.6
9.5
8.7
8.2
27
27
27
7.8
7.4
7.7
5.4
5.4
5.4
+34% YOY
20
10
0
6.7
6.4
6.7
6.5
7.0
4.3
4.4
4.1
4.1
3.8
7.3
7.9
8.0
4.0
3.8
3.7
9.3
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.9
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, except
10.3 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.8 10.7
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.5
5.1
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
-26% YOY +30% YOY
for in the $300K - $400K price range, where we have seen a 26% decline in home sales. The most significant increase seen over the past 12 months has been in the $200K - $300K price range, where we have seen a 34% increase in home sales, though the $400K+ price range follows close behind with a 30% increase.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
350
308 300
287 274
301
309
321
312
319
316 294 290
285
321 300 299 302
287
311 313 314 283
269 272 265
261
250
200
172
180
190 192
201 203
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188
177
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182 178
157
173 172 168
157 154
134 135
75
74
59
67
105
102
97
87 81
50
172
171 158 155
107 100
190
180
155 150
88
93
92
95
90 89
89
88
83 71
77
-4% YOY
71
63
70 57 54
58 57
53 52
63
83
83
84
68 67
73
80
80
71
79 73
80 75
73 64
65 55
69
48
-1% YOY
+19% YOY -16% YOY
0
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The mid-upper price range ($300K - $400K) has seen the largest upward adjustment (+19%) in inventory levels over the past year, while the highest price range ($400K+)
has seen the larges (-16%) in the number of homes for sale. All four price ranges may see inventory levels decline further over the next two months as we continue through the Winter market.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
30
25
25
25
24
23
24
22
21
20
20
17
16 15 15
14 11
15 13
6 6
14
6 5
7
6
8
8
9
6
9
10
6
14
15
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17 15
14
15
9
9
6
6
6
8
8
6
5
6 5
8
-26% YOY 12
10
7
6
14
17
12
10
6
17
11
9
6
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14 12
12
10
5
Entire Market: 5.6 Months of Housing Supply 532 Active Listings 12-Month Average of 95 Sales/Month
7
5
7
5
5
8
8
6
8
6
6
8
9 7
8
8
7
6
6
5
8
7 6
9
7 6
9
6 6
10 9 9
9
6
6
5
+51% YOY -24% YOY +3% YOY
5
0
With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take nine months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought
each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and in the past 12 months we have only consistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range over the past year.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre
$120,000
450
$99,900
408 400
$100,000
$76,500
350
$59,650
$53,950
$54,900
$56,500
$54,500
$55,000
$56,600
$60,000
Stability 111
100
85
$40,000
Growth 83
75 58
64
62
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$42,500
$36,900
$32,208
150
201
$30,500
200
247
$54,500
250
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$42,000
261
$80,000
$59,900
304 300
84
63
78
$20,000
50
4 0
$0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
After some modest recovery in the pace of sales of lots of less than an acre over the past few years, there were fewer of these sales in 2015 (78) as compared to 2014 (84). That slower pace of lot sales did not stop sellers from being able to obtain higher prices for their building lots, as the median sales price increased from
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
$53,950 to $59,650. This is nearly tied for the highest median sales price seen anytime since 2008. While we are unlikely to return to seeing 250 or more lot sales in a single year, hopefully we will see increase back up to 100 or 125 sales in the coming years.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre
$100k + 11 listings 7% $80k - $100k 14 listings 10%
$0 - $40k 28 listings 19%
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$60k - $80k 38 listings 26% $40k - $60k 56 listings 38%
147 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $55,000
Despite the fact that only 78 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 147 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($55,000) is actually a bit lower than the 2015 median sales price of $59,650. Given last year’s 78 lot sales, if no
other lots were listed for sale, it would take 1.9 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, more than nearly one half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2015) median sales prices.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more
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107
$20,000
$15,171
$13,240
$14,981
$15,000
$15,964
$25,000
$15,000
$9,932
$9,535
$8,333
120
$8,245
140
$12,003
160
$15,000
$17,713
168
$13,957
180
$30,000
$20,833
$24,184
200
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$10,000
100
87 77
76
80
$5,000
83 70 57
60
51
44
42 40
66
$0
58 49
-$5,000
28 -$10,000
20
2 -$15,000
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County peaked in 2013 at 70 sales, declined in 2014 to only 58 sales, but popped back up to 66 sales during 2015. The median price per acre of these lots with over 1 acre also jumped back up in 2015 to $15,171. This is the highest price per acre for land of over one
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
acre seen anytime in the past six years. It seems possible that we will see further increases in the pace of these sales in 2015 as well as potentially in the median sales price of these lot / land sales. Ignore the yellow line skyrocketing off the graph in 2016 -- this is a high median price per acre based on a very small sample size.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more
$100k + 18 listings 10% $75k - $100k 4 listings 2%
$0 - $10k 37 listings 21%
$50k - $75k 17 listings 9% logo.indd 1
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$30k - $50k 26 listings 14% $10k - $20k 45 listings 25%
$20k - $30k 33 listings 18%
180 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $22,153 / Acre
Despite the fact that only 66 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 180 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 180 parcels for sale is currently $22,153 per acre. Given
last year’s 66 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 2.7 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS
Recorded Trustee Deeds
1,800 1,669 1,600
1,507 1,438
1,400
1,324 1,248
1,200
1,153 1,071
1,085
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1,122
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1,013
1,000
936 864
816
794
758
800
600
400 270 200 91
63
75
70
86
93
118
97
177
223
252
222
163
139 67
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10
2016
Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013, 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, and 8.1 times as many in 2015.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac
6.00%
3.50%
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Jan-14
Jan-15
3.79%
4.01%
3.95%
3.76%
3.86%
3.84%
3.98%
4.02%
3.87%
3.69%
3.68%
3.80%
3.66%
3.97%
3.98%
4.20%
4.10%
4.14%
4.12%
4.12%
4.33%
4.40%
4.37%
4.32%
4.48%
4.29%
4.10%
4.32%
4.51%
3.00% Jan-13
3.87%
3.40%
3.57%
3.51%
4.00%
3.53%
4.50%
3.81%
5.00%
4.31%
4.46%
5.50%
Jan-16
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
3.9%
4.1%
4.0%
4.4%
5.0%
5.5%
5.4%
5.0% 4.4%
3.9%
4.00%
5.1%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
4.8%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.6%
5.3% 4.1%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.7%
5.3%
5.0%
5.3%
5.9%
6.1%
5.7%
Not Seasonally Adjusted
4.4%
4.50%
4.6%
5.00%
4.9%
5.50%
5.4%
6.00%
5.1%
6.50%
5.6%
Unemployment Rate
3.50% 3.00% Dec-12
Dec-13
As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen steadily (though slowly) declining mortgage interest rates over the past two years despite some increases over the past eight months. The current average rate of 3.79% is among the lowest rates we have seen in the past several years. The second graph above illustrates
Dec-14
Dec-15
trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past four years, declining from 5.1% (in 2012) to 3.9% (in 2015). A low local unemployment rate and low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable.
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker
Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, elevated photography equipment, property websites for each of his listings and Matterport 3D Showcase. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgApps.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com and many others. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves on the Board of Directors for the Explore More Discovery Museum, and is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, camping, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events.
Questions? Contact Scott anytime.... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile)
[email protected]
Everything You Need To Know About the Home Buying Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
Local Online Real Estate Resources
Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Scott provides detailed, professional and responsive service to all of his clients, whether they are buying their first home or have been through many housing transitions. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/ Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
Marketing Strategies for Successing Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
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Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Published on February 10, 2016 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 01/31/2016.
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