Dec 12, 2017 - An analysis of real estate acfivity through November 30, 2017. provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funk
DECEMBER 2017 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through November 30, 2017. provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
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[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County # Home Sales
December 12, 2017
2014
2015
2016
2017
% Change ('16 - '17)
November
68
79
113
94
-16.81%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Nov)
984
1,042
1,218
1,149
-5.67%
1,077
1,138
1,302
1,244
-4.45%
Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)
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Median Sales Price
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2014
2015
2016
2017
% Change ('16 - '17)
November
$181,200
$185,000
$190,000
$209,125
10.07%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Nov)
$178,500
$186,000
$192,000
$198,000
3.13%
Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)
$177,000
$185,000
$190,000
$198,250
4.34%
2014
2015
2016
2017
% Change ('16 - '17)
November
68
51
44
37
-15.91%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Nov)
66
55
51
33
-35.29%
Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)
64
56
50
35
-30.00%
Median Days on Market
Perhaps we’ll just have to look back at last November and marvel at the incredibly high 113 home sales we saw during that one-of-a-kind month. This November we only saw 94 home sales, marking a 17% decline from last November -- though an increase over the previous two Novembers. Maybe last November was an anomaly.
Looking at longer term trends, the year-to-date sales pace is almost 6% behind where we were at this time last year -- and the median price has risen by 3% during that same timeframe. Homes are also selling much more quickly this year -- with a median of 33 days on the market as compared to 51 days last year at this point.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
# Home Sales
2016
2017
% Change
2016
2017
% Change
November
36
24
-33.33%
76
70
-7.89%
Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)
449
408
-9.13%
853
836
-1.99%
. Rockingham County
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City of Harrisonburg
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Median Sales Price
2016
2017
% Change
2016
2017
% Change
November
$163,000
$191,000
17.18%
$214,500
$217,950
1.61%
Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)
$165,000
$175,000
6.06%
$202,000
$210,000
3.96%
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Median Days on Market
2016
2017
% Change
2016
2017
% Change
November
40
18
-55.00%
45
40
-11.11%
Last 12 Months (Dec-Nov)
37
24
-35.14%
60
43
-28.33%
Each year, twice as many (+/-) homes sell in the County as compared to the City. Looking at year-to-date figures, County home sales are almost on pace (-2%) with last year, while City home sales have declined much more (-9%) during that same timeframe. Both the City and County have seen increases in the median sales
price over the past year -- with a 6% increase in the City and a 4% increase in the County. Homes tend to sell more quickly in the City (median of 24 days on market) as compared to their counterparts in the County (median of 43 days on market).
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 175 2014 158
2015
150
149
2016
138
2017
Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales
152
133
134 125 117
125
101
100
93 85
75
69 67
56 50
49
69 68
72
53
58
FEB
MAR
68
110 107
111
115
108
129
126 118 106
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111 105 97
100 93
112 105
113
97
94
97
81
7/28/2008 3:10:30
79
97 95
84
68 November 2017 94 Home Sales
25
0
JAN
APR
MAY
JUN
This year has not had the sky high monthly sales figures seen last year. As shown above, last August, September and November (all of 2016) were spectacular months of sales -- well above and beyond any previous such months in recent memory. This year, the months of August, September and November fell right in
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
the middle of (or above) 2014 and 2015 sales paces for those same months. Given the sales trajectory over the past few years, we are likely to see 85 to 95 home sales in December, before tihngs slow down even further -- likely to 50 or 60 home sales in January and February of next year.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1400 1300 1200 1100
1,067
1000 900 800 700 600
832 747 685 623
0
910
920
839
817
808
743 664
734
500
383
400
400
299
308
226 146 79 40
228 154 87 41
296
2011
2012
462
100
900
497
400
200
988
592
542
300
974
618
500
1,085
697 591 466 355
1,125 1,041 962 857 760 634
1,313
DEC
1,218
NOV
1,105 1,008
282
1,055 958
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879
853
721
735
606
618
454
480
321
331
526 392
1,149
192 121 49
248 167 109 46
189 117 49
220
231
135 67
138 69
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As shown above, our local housing market experienced small incremental growth between 2013 and 2015 before seeing a sharp uptick in home sales last year in 2016. Through
OCT SEP AUG
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JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN
July of this year, it seemed that we would see more home sales in 2017 than in 2016 -- but we have since fallen quite behind! August, September and October of this year have set us behind 2016 and likely have created enough of a year-over-year gap that we will not be able to match 2016 home sales this year.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes $198,250
$196,125
$195,000
$194,500
$193,000
$192,700
$190,000
$192,000
$192,000
$192,000
$192,500
$190,000
$190,000
$189,000
$186,250
$185,750
$185,000
$186,000
$185,000
$186,500
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$180,000
$179,000
$179,900
$179,700
$178,000
2,000
$176,500
2,500
$196,500
# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
$200,000
$180,000
1,244
1,263
1,263
1,327
1,287
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1,325
1,323
1,324
1,316
1,315
1,313
1,302
1,276
1,244
1,212
1,205
1,187
1,164
1,156
1,143
1,143
1,138
1,125
1,127
1,148
1,134
1,128
1,145
1,122
1,119
1,107
1,093
1,078
1,085
1,081
1,268
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1,500
1,339
Stable
$160,000
1,000 $140,000
500
0 Nov-14
$120,000
Nov-15
This graph shows a rolling 12 month trend line of the number of homes sold in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a
Nov-16
$100,000 Nov-17
monthly basis. Over the past three years we saw relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales up until August 2017, when the pace of sales started slowing down. The median sales price has been steadily increasing for over a year from the $185K range to now be right around $195,000.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes
$250,000
1,800
+14%
1,000 +4%
$127,700
800
$122,588
+17%
$169,900
+14%
1,153
$149,000
1,200
1,248
-6%
+1%
+2%
+4%
$198,000
$192,500
+4%
1,067
+2%
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1,309
1,085
1,149
1,122 +3%
$150,000
+19% -10%
870
-8%
799
+4%
832
+8%
$200,000
+17%
-23%
967
+2%
$185,000
-13%
-3%
$178,000
-5%
$175,000
n/a
$172,375
+15%
$192,983
1,324
+1%
$169,900
1,400
$179,900
1,438
+14%
$185,000
-14%
1,507
$195,000
1,600
$195,100
1,669 +11%
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900
$100,000
600
400
$50,000
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2002 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2016) marks the sixth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
(+17%) in the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 4% increase in the median sales price. This 17% increase in the pace of sales far exceeded the increases seen in the prior two years (2%, 3%) and likely contributed to the additional 4% increase in the median sales price.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes
1,400
1,000
800 $147,000
$136,000
-1%
+5%
+7%
$224,000
$214,000
$200,000
$190,000
-2%
$192,000
+6%
$225,000
978
909
$175,000
+20% -12%
+16% +8%
600
+24%
880 $170,000
851
-6%
-11%
+16% +3%
-4%
$195,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$184,000
-6%
$195,000
-4%
$203,000
-1%
$215,000
+8%
$223,575
1,200
$226,800
$210,000
$275,000
813
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798
819
n/c
818
813
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+21%
-15%
678
+1%
-11%
602
-1%
595
+10%
653
+3%
672
$125,000
$75,000 400
$25,000
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County improved significantly between 2015 and 2016. After three years of relatively little change in the number of single family home sales (813, 819, 818) we saw a sudden and dramatic increase to 978 home sales. Looking back, there have only been two
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-$25,000
years (2004, 2005) when more single family homes were sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 20% increase in the pace of single family home sales was accompanied by a 7% increase in the median sales price. The median sales prices of detached homes seem likely to make another decent sized increase in 2017.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos
529
444
$103,100
+47%
300
+14%
302
$118,500
+5%
-6%
-15%
+10%
$108,200
400
+9%
483
+3%
n/c
-1%
$159,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
450
$134,950
500
+11%
$149,500
-9%
$151,750
-3%
$151,750
+19%
$137,250
-4%
$132,750
$166,635
+2%
$140,500
+33%
+2%
$154,250
-18%
$159,545
600
$163,800
644
$160,850
700
$120,000
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-36%
289
304 -7%
268 228
-24%
204
200
-12%
+11%
254
+5%
266
+9%
331
336
+14%
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$100,000
$80,000
+27%
$60,000
179
$40,000 100 $20,000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
After six years (2005-2011) of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has been rebounding since 2012. The 331 sales seen in 2016 marked the highest level of sales seen anytime between 2008 and 2016. Despite the continuing increase in the sale of townhouses
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
(and duplexes and condominiums), we did not see any further market recovery in 2015 or 2016 when it comes to price, and in fact, the median sales price of these properties dropped slightly in 2016 to $149,500. We are, however, finally seeing the median sales price start to increase based on year-to-date sales in 2017.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market
831 822 813 801 791 780 770 757 744 730 718 705 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 630 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 607 608 609 611 610 610 609 606 599 592 603 619 635 631 648 655 656 656 660 660 668 662 664 644 632 632 622
900
SELLERS
800
BUYERS
600
Over Supply = Buyer's Market
500
400
Seller's Market
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A Relatively Balanced Market
7/28/2008 3:10:30
389 397 397 401 403 401 406 407 416 422 416 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 503 509 492 507 510 502 496 482 484 491 495 491 504 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 560 554 565 560 559 565 560 570 570 577 581 593 600 584 578 569 556 542 530 516 505 491 476 461 446 435 423 411 401 390
700
SELLERS
BUYERS
300
200
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Jan-16
Mar-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
100
(active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 2016, these two trajectories crossed, and there are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale -- though the pace of buying activity is slowing.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price
Price/SF $350,000
$140
$129
$127
$127 $117
$116
$120
Median Price Per SF $113 $101
$97
$100
$87
$227K $224K
$81
$210K
$80
$103
$105
$106
$136K
$113
$250,000
$215K
$203K
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$214K $195K
$184K
$195K $192K $190K
$224K
$200,000
$200K
Median Sales Price
$150,000
$147K $100,000
$40
$50,000
$20
$0
$300,000
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$170K $60
$108
$118
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year+ (2015 to 2016 to 2017) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF
1,500 - 2,500 SF
2,500+ SF
150
140
$138 $132
130
$127 $123
120
$126 logo.indd 1
$121 $117
$117
$115 $108 $104
$105
100
$106
$115
$114
$120
$111
$111
110
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$121
$105
$104
$106
$101 $103 $96
$97
$105
$107
$101
$98
90
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of similar sizes. Looking at 2017 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($107/SF) than that of homes with less than 1500 SF ($132/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace
2,000
1,750
97.8%
98.1%
99.1%
99.1%
98.9%
98.0%
98.0%
1,669
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0%
100.0%
1,438
1,324 1,250
98.0%
95.0%
1,507
1,500
97.0%
98.0%
1,309
1,248 1,153
1,149
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1,067 967
1,000
870 799
832
1,085
1,122
900
90.0%
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85.0%
750 80.0% 500 75.0%
250
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.7% in 2001 before the pace of home sales started
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
70.0%
escalating. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 2010) we saw a decline in this metric to 96%, where we stayed for three years (2010, 2011, 2012). Sellers started selling for slightly more in 2013-2015 when they could obtain 97% of their list price. This increased to 98% in 2016 and is holding steady in 2017.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186 200
180
$133
$149
$141
$140
$136
$129
$128
$129
150
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109
$114
$105
80
$99
100
$130
121
120
$146
139
$137
140
137
$150
140
$144
158
160
84
100
82 67
60
41
40
45
51
54
47
50
38
20
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 2005 and 2010 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 2001 (not shown above; before the housing boom) we still find a 70% drop between 2001 and 2010. The number of new home sales per year has
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. This past year, however, was QUITE different. There were a total of 82 new home sales last year, exceeding the pace seen for each of the past six years -- a welcome sign for new home builders, even if the pace is now slowing in 2017.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[4] BUYER ACTIVITY Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 180
158
160
141
140
133 118 109
99 86
80
77
76
97
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93
70
63
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87
84
82
112
111
109
108
98
100
133 132
119
118
114
137
130
128
126 120
140
87
79
74 67
63
67
60
40
Annual Pace: 1,335 contracts
20
Annual Pace: 1,245 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,168 contracts
Strong contract activity is typically an indicator of strong months of sales to come. After several strong months in a row in March, April, May and June of 2017 -contract activity fell off a good bit in July 2017 (97 compared to 119 last July) and in August (111 compared to 130 last August) and yet again in September (87 compared
Oct-17
Nov-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
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Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
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Mar-15
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Dec-14
Nov-14
0
to 99 last September). Perhaps unexpectedly, October contracts were higher than last year -- though November contracts were a good bit lower than last November. All in all, we are seeing a 6.7% decline in contract activity over the past year, which corresponds rather tightly with the 6% drop in closed home sales.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels (end of month)
700
619 600
500
560
570 532 539
581 582
568
549
560 532 480 451 413
400
418 409 402 400 411 394 393 396 logo.indd 1
368
7/28/2008 3:10:30
356 322
300
200
100
0
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which may be a significant decision, but it is not
always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been declining drastically over the past year -- and are now 29% lower than they were one year ago.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes
Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos 300
500
445 408 400
418
430
439 436
416
392 392
250
435 403
22% Decline in Inventory
372 343
174 300
200
318 152 151 152 150 147 143 139
311 312
327 327 325 320
341
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7/28/2008 3:10:30
290
282 133
200
329
266
125 129 108 108 95
86
94
88
98 84
74
68
150
100
69
72
66
100
56 50
48% Decline in Inventory 0
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale has decreased by 22% over the past year, while the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos for sale has
0
decreased by a startling 48% over the past year! All we can hope is that these inventory levels will start to climb again (??) at some point -- maybe next Spring!?! There are many buyers in our local market who are anxious to buy, but not finding many properties that they would like to purchase.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
500 450
449 408 406 405
400
417
429 434 425 401
419 398
29% Decline in Inventory
368 345
350
321
313 314
312 313 314
322 316
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281
300
322
246
250 200 150
7/28/2008 3:10:30
277
170
152
136 134
153 152 148 150 148 141 134 112 106
100
92
87
92
86
89
89
104 80
28% Decline in Inventory 88
85
79
76
50 0
Inventory levels have been falling in both the City and County over the past two years, with a 28% and 29% decline in each region, respectively. Of note -- while there are approximately twice as many home sales in the County than in the City -- there are more than three times as many homes for sale in the County than in
the City. As such, the low inventory is much more of an issue in the City right now if we look at both sellers (supply) and buyers (demand). I would like to say that we should see inventory levels start to increase again next Spring, but that does not seem to be a certainty given trends over the past year.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[6] DAYS ON MARKET Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
6 - 12 months 123 10%
> 1 year 50 4%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings
> 1 year, 35, 11%
3 - 6 months 206 16%
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6 - 12 months, 59, 18%
< 30 days, 42, 13%
30 - 59 days, 40, 13%
7/28/2008 3:10:30
< 30 days, 571, 46% 60 - 89 days, 41, 13% 60 - 89 days, 109, 9%
3 - 6 months, 103, 32% 30 - 59 days, 185, 15%
Median Days On Market: 35
Median Days On Market: 120
Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median “Days on Market” is 35 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 46% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 30 days
of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you’ll find that 61% of homes that sell go under contract within 60 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
70
60
54
54
55
54
55
56
58
58
57
59
59
58
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
59
59
58
58 55
54
-10% YOY
50 logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
40
30
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
28
28
28
29
29
30
31
31
31
32
31
33
32
33
33
34
33
32
+8% YOY
20
10
7.8
7.4
7.7
5.4
5.4
5.4
8.3
5.5
8.4
8.3
8.5
9.3
9.6
12.8 12.4 12.3 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.5 12.3 10.3 11.3
5.7
5.9
5.3
5.6
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.1
6.6
6.4
6.1
-4% YOY +1% YOY
0
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have been declining over the past year in the “under $200K”
category -- though likely because of limited inventory, and fewer properties existing in this range based on increasing home values. The largest increase in pace of home sales has been in the $200K - $300K price range, where sales have increased 8% over the past year.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
350
314 300
283 261 264
274 256
250
248 234
190
200
168
174
229
221 217 202
182
172
182
157 154 153 156
176 143
136
141 127
147
137 133 133 136 137 130 131
117 116 114
125
100 73 64
65
55
69
48
66 56
76
64
78 73
75 69
80 72
75 73
82 75
77 72
7/28/2008 3:10:30
190
166
150
50
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71 64
64
62
60
73 66
61 48
50
75 74
82 71
107 85
69
99 82 76
132
124
84
86
116 113 121 81
108 79
98 63
65
69
63
53
48
-41% YOY -28% YOY -2% YOY -21% YOY
0
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The lowest price range (under $200K) has seen an astonishing 41% decline in inventory levels over the past year -- which is followed by a 28% decline in the $200K - $300K
price range. The only price range where inventory levels have almost held steady is the $400K+ price range, where there are only 2% fewer houses on the market today as compared to one year ago. The $300K - $400K price range has seen a 21% year over year decline in inventory levels.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
16 14
14
12
Entire Market: 3.75 Months of Housing Supply 12-Month Average of 390 Active Listings 12-Month Average of 104 Sales/Month
14 13
13 13
12
12
13 12
9
11
9 8
6 6
6 4
9
10
9
8
5
6
6
5
12
12
12
12
11 10
10
10
-3% YOY
7/28/2008 3:10:30
9 8
8
7
8
7
6
8
7 6
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
6
6 6
6
5
5
5 4
6
6
6 6
5
12
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6 6
13
12
11 10
10
$400k +
3
2
4 5 4
3
3
5
5 4
4
4
4
2
2
4 4 2
2
4
2
4
2
4
2
4
2
4 2
4
3
3
2
2
-18% YOY -34% YOY -34% YOY
0
With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take 10 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers
bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months -- it would only take two months (!!) to burn through the under $200K inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and we aren’t anywhere close to that in any price range under $400K.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre
$120,000
450
$99,900
408 400
$100,000
$76,500
350
$36,900
150
$32,208
200
$60,000
Stability
$40,000
111
100
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$59,250
$54,500
$59,650
$53,950
$54,900
$56,500
$54,500
$55,000
$56,600
247
$54,500
250
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$42,000
261
$80,000
$59,900
304 300
Decl 85
83
75 58
64
62
63
2010
2011
2012
84
ine
78
64
76
$20,000
50
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
After some modest recovery in the pace of sales of lots of less than an acre over the past few years, there were fewer of these sales in 2016 (64) as compared to 2015 (78) and 2014 (84). That slowing pace of lot sales did not stop sellers in 2015 from being able to obtain higher prices for their building lots with a median sales price
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$0
of $59,650 -- but that median price then declined during 2016 to only $54,500. We have already surpassed the number of lot sales seen in 2016 just given the first 11 months of 2017 -- and it seems likely we’ll finish out the year with a higher median sales price for these lots this year as compared to last year.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre
$100k + 49 listings 26%
$0 - $40k 32 listings 17%
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$40k - $60k 39 listings 20%
$80k - $100k 41 listings 21% $60k - $80k 31 listings 16%
192 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $79,000
Despite the fact that only 64 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2016, there are a remarkable 192 lots currently for sale. Furthermore, the median list price of lots for sale ($79,000) is considerably much higher than the 2016 median sales price of $54,500. Given last year’s 64 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would
take 3 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, a significant portion of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2016) median sales prices.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more
107
$15,804
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
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$15,171
$13,240
$14,981
$15,000
$15,964
$25,000
$9,932
$9,535
120
$8,333
140
$12,003
160
$15,000
$17,713
168
$13,957
180
$30,000
$20,833
$24,184
200
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$10,000
100
87 77
76
80
83
81 70 57
60
51
44 40
66
73 $0
58 49
-$5,000
28 -$10,000
20
0
$5,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased in pace during 2016 to 73 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since 2007. That said, during that same timeframe, the median price per acre has fallen from $24,184 (in 2007) down to $10,000 (in 2016). Some aspects of this “median price
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-$15,000
per acre” calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year, but it is clear that land prices have been trending slowly down over the past five or so years. We are now seeing an increase in buyer demand in 2017, which seems to be leading to a further increase in the median price per acre.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more
$100k + 24 listings 12% $75k - $100k 10 listings 5% $50k - $75k 9 listings 4%
$0 - $10k 47 listings 23%
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$30k - $50k 21 listings 10%
$20k - $30k 34 listings 17%
$10k - $20k 58 listings 29%
203 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $19,772 / Acre
Despite the fact that only 73 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2016, there are 203 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $10,000 per acre, the median list price of the 206 parcels for sale is currently $19,772 per acre. Given last year’s 73
land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 2.8 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS
Recorded Trustee Deeds
1,800 1,669 1,600
1,507 1,438
1,400
1,324
1,309
1,248 1,200 1,153 1,085
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1,149
1,122
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1,013
1,000
936 864
816
794
758
800
600
400 270 200 63 0
2002
75
2003
70 2004
86
2005
93
2006
97
2007
177
118
2008
2009
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded
2010
223
2011
252
2012
222
2013
163
2014
139
2015
136
2016
125
2017
Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, 8.1 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2015 and 9.6 times as many in 2016.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac
6.00%
3.00% Nov-14
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Nov-15
Nov-16
3.90%
3.94%
3.83%
3.82%
3.92%
3.88%
3.95%
4.03%
4.14%
4.19%
4.16%
4.03% 3.47%
3.42%
3.50%
3.43%
3.48%
3.48%
3.66%
3.64%
3.71%
3.62%
3.79%
4.01%
3.95%
3.76%
3.86%
3.84%
3.98%
4.02%
3.87%
3.68%
3.69%
3.80%
3.87%
4.00%
3.66%
4.50%
3.97%
5.00%
4.32%
5.50%
Nov-17
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
Unemployment Rate
Oct-15
As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past three years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4%. After jumping up above 4% in early 2017, interest rates have been below 4% for the past seven months. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate
3.3%
3.5%
4.0%
3.9%
4.2%
3.9%
3.6%
3.7%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
4.2%
4.0%
4.2%
4.4%
4.4%
Oct-16
3.3%
3.50% 3.00% Oct-14
3.8%
4.1% 3.2%
4.0%
4.3%
3.9%
4.1%
4.0%
4.4%
5.4%
5.0%
5.1%
4.8%
5.0%
3.9%
4.00%
4.4%
4.50%
4.4%
5.00%
4.1%
5.50%
4.8%
6.00%
5.5%
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Oct-17
-- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years. A low local unemployment rate and relatively low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable and start to grow in recent years.
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker
Questions? Contact Scott anytime.... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile)
[email protected]
Everything You Need To Know About Buying a Home BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
Local Online Real Estate Resources
Scott P. Rogers, a professional, responsive, knowledgeable, friendly Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors. A native of Montgomery County, Maryland, Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, a quadcopter (drone), property websites for each of his listings, 3D Walk Through technology and Virtual Reality. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as: HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com, SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com and HarrisonburgRealEstateResources.com. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Children’s Choir, is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com and PerfectPotluck.com, serves as a Trustee for Asbury United Methodist Church and coaches middle school volleyball. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events.
Marketing Strategies for Successing Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com
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Comprehensive Data on Area Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Published on December 12, 2018 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 11/30/2017.
7/28/2008 3:10:30