Migrants, Healthy Worker Effect, and Mortality Trends in Qatar and Other Gulf ... 1 Institute for Population Health, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
Migrants, Healthy Worker Effect, and Mortality Trends in Qatar and Other Gulf Nations Chaabna Karima1, Cheema Sohaila1, Mamtani Ravinder1 1
Institute for Population Health, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar
OBJECTIVE To assess all-cause and cause-specific mortality trends according to national population size trends.
INTRODUCTION Net migration: main factor affecting population size and age structure in the six Gulf Nations. Proportion of migrants: 32% in Saudi Arabia (2013) , 44% in Oman (2015) , 51% in Bahrain (2013), 68% in Kuwait (2012), and over 80% in Qatar (2016) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE, 2014). Largest segment of the population: 15-49 age group (≥60% of the total population) in both males and females. Mortality decline: commonly attributed to socioeconomic development and healthcare improvement.
METHODS Geographical coverage: All Gulf Nations namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Publically available data (1990-2015): World Population Prospect 2015 Revision by United Nations (UN) Population Division; and Global Burden of Disease 2015 study. All causes and GBD 2015-defined death causes with the codes: A1-A7, B1-B10, and C1-C3. Annual population growth and annual percent change in all-cause age-standardized and age-specific rates. Simple linear and polynomial regressions.
RESULTS
All causes
Age-standardized mortality rates: inversely proportional to national population size in Gulf Nations (p-values between 0.0001 and 0.0457) (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Association between all-cause age-standardized mortality and population trends in the six Gulf Nations.
Age-specific mortality: inversely proportional to age-specific population size in Qatar (statistically significant among the 5-14 and 15-49 age groups [p-values
