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Heterogeneous expectations, learning and European inflation dynamics Anke Weber (University of Cambridge)
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies No 16/2007 Discussion Papers represent the authors’ personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff.
Editorial Board:
Heinz Herrmann Thilo Liebig Karl-Heinz Tödter
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Abstr act: This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning performs well in out-of-sample forecasting. It is also shown that households in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries. They are hence able to pick up structural changes faster. Professional forecasters update their information sets more frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the ECB, which is to keep inflation below to but close to 2% in the medium run. This contrasts the findings for professional experts, which seem to be more inclined to incorporate the implications of monetary union for the convergence in inflation rates into their expectations. Key Wor ds: Monetary policy, heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, survey expectations J EL-Classification: E31, E37, D84
Non technical summar y Optimal monetary policy by central banks is increasingly seen as being sensitive to the expectation formation process of economic agents. It is hence of crucial importance for any central bank to be aware of the exact process by which expectations are formed. This paper investigates whether learning by economic agents is a plausible assumption for the Euro area and whether there is heterogeneity between countries and between households and professional forecasters. Furthermore it is analysed whether the learning process of agents converges towards equilibrium and specifically whether economic agents are able to learn the inflation goal of the European Central Bank, which is to maintain inflation close to but below 2% in the medium run.
In order to examine whether expectations in Europe result from a learning process, the paper assesses the performance of different forecasting models with time varying parameters in terms of their ability to fit actual data on inflation and inflation expectations. Data on household and expert expectations for five core countries participating in the single currency, namely Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands, is used. It is found that for European countries, inflation expectations result from a learning process and therefore are not rational. Furthermore professional forecasters use higher constant gain parameters than households. They hence update their information sets more frequently and are able to pick up structural changes faster. A possible explanation of this is that households find it more costly to update their information sets than professional experts. It is also shown that in countries with higher inflation agents update their information sets more frequently. A possible explanation lies in Sims' theory of 'Rational Inattention' according to which agents will pay more attention to new information coming available when inflation is high as their opportunity cost of being inattentive is significantly higher during these periods.
In addition to assessing the importance of learning in the formation of inflation expectations, it is crucial to investigate whether the learning process converges to equilibrium and whether expectations are anchored at the policy goal of the ECB. It has often been argued that inflation differentials in the monetary union should disappear in the medium to long run and that expectations should have converged to
the inflation goal of the ECB. However, as the results in this paper show household expectations so far have not been anchored at the inflation goal of the ECB whilst professional forecasters are more inclined to incorporate the implications of monetary union into their expectations than households.
Nicht-technische Zusammenfassung Es wird heute allgemein davon ausgegangen, dass eine optimale Geldpolitik vom Erwartungsbildungsprozess der privaten Marktteilnehmer abhängt. Deshalb ist es für Zentralbanken wichtig zu wissen, wie diese ihre Erwartungen bilden. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht, ob sich die Inflationserwartungen in Ländern des Europäischen Währungsraums durch einen Lernprozess beschreiben lassen und ob es dabei Unterschiede zwischen privaten Haushalten und professionellen Prognostikern sowie zwischen den Ländern gibt. Schließlich wird geprüft, ob der Lernprozess der Marktteilnehmer zu einem Gleichgewicht konvergiert und ob Haushalte und professionelle Prognostiker das Inflationsziel der EZB, die Inflationsrate nahe aber unter 2 % zu halten, lernen können.
Um die empirische Relevanz des Lernprozesses einschätzen zu können, wird die Effizienz verschiedener Vorhersagemodelle mit zeitvariablen Parametern untersucht. Dazu wird ein Datensatz mit Umfragedaten für die Inflationserwartungen in Deutschland, Spanien, Frankreich, Italien und den Niederlanden verwendet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Inflationserwartungen in diesen Ländern Ergebnis eines Lernprozesses und deshalb nicht rational sind. Außerdem legen professionelle Prognostiker ein höheres Gewicht auf neue Erfahrungen (verwenden höhere ‚Constant Gain' Parameter) als Haushalte und sind deshalb schneller in der Lage, strukturelle Veränderungen in der Inflationsrate in ihre Erwartungen aufzunehmen. Eine mögliche Erklärung könnten höhere Kosten der Informationsbeschaffung für Haushalte sein. Das Papier zeigt weiter, dass in Ländern mit hohen Inflationsraten in der Vergangenheit neue Informationen schneller gesammelt werden. Dieses Ergebnis stimmt mit der Theorie der 'Rationalen Unaufmerksamkeit' von Sims überein, wonach es bei hohen Inflationsraten für Agenten kostspieliger ist, neuen Informationen keine Beachtung zu schenken.
Neben der Frage, ob die Inflationserwartungen von Haushalten und professionellen Prognostikern das Ergebnis eines Lernprozesses sind, ist es auch wichtig zu analysieren, ob sich die Inflationserwartungen der Marktteilnehmer zu einem Gleichgewicht hinbewegen und ob dies das Inflationsziel der EZB ist. Sehr oft wird
argumentiert, dass in der Währungsunion die Inflationsdifferenzen zwischen einzelnen Ländern auf mittlere und lange Sicht verschwinden und die Erwartungen sich tatsächlich dem Inflationsziel der EZB angenähert haben sollten. Diese Studie zeigt, dass die professionellen Prognostiker eher geneigt sind, diese Implikationen der Währungsunion in ihre Erwartungen einzubeziehen, während die Erwartungen der Haushalte in den verschiedenen Ländern noch nicht mit dem Inflationsziel der EZB übereinzustimmen scheinen.
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#≅ ΑΔ67Δ ΦΑ 7ϑ3?;≅7 Ι:7Φ:7Δ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε ;≅ ΓΔΑΒ7 Δ7ΕΓ>Φ 8ΔΑ? 3 >73Δ≅;≅9 ΒΔΑ57ΕΕ Φ:7 Β3Β7Δ 3ΕΕ7ΕΕ7Ε Φ:7 Β7Δ8ΑΔ?3≅57 Α8 6;Σ7Δ7≅Φ 8ΑΔ753ΕΦ;≅9 ?Α67>Ε Ι;Φ: Φ;?7 Η3ΔΚ;≅9 Β3Δ3?7Φ7ΔΕ ;≅ Φ7Δ?Ε Α8 Φ:7;Δ 34;>;ΦΚ ΦΑ ΜΦ 35ΦΓ3> 63Φ3 Α≅ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 3Φ3 Α≅ :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6 3≅6 7ϑΒ7ΔΦ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 8ΑΔ ΜΗ7 5ΑΔ7 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε Β3ΔΦ;5;Β3Φ;≅9 ;≅ Φ:7 Ε;≅9>7 5ΓΔΔ7≅5Κ ≅3?7>Κ !7Δ?3≅Κ −Β3;≅ Δ3≅57 #Φ3>Κ 3≅6 Φ:7 (7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε ;Ε ΓΕ76 #Φ ;Ε 8ΑΓ≅6 Φ:3Φ 8ΑΔ ΓΔΑΒ73≅ 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Δ7ΕΓ>Φ 8ΔΑ? 3 >73Δ≅;≅9 ΒΔΑ57ΕΕ 3≅6 Φ:7Δ78ΑΔ7 3Δ7 ≅ΑΦ Δ3Φ;Α≅3> ΓΔΦ:7Δ?ΑΔ7 ΒΔΑ87ΕΕ;Α≅3> 8ΑΔ753ΕΦ7ΔΕ ΓΕ7 :;9:7Δ 5Α≅ΕΦ3≅Φ 93;≅ Β3Δ3?7Φ7ΔΕ Φ:3≅ :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6Ε .:7Κ :7≅57 ΓΒ63Φ7 Φ:7;Δ ;≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ Ε7ΦΕ ?ΑΔ7 8Δ7ΧΓ7≅Φ>Κ 3≅6 3Δ7 34>7 ΦΑ Β;5= ΓΒ ΕΦΔΓ5ΦΓΔ3> 5:3≅97Ε 83ΕΦ7Δ 2 ΒΑΕΕ;4>7 7ϑΒ>3≅3Φ;Α≅ Α8 Φ:;Ε ;Ε Φ:3Φ :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6Ε Μ≅6 ;Φ ?ΑΔ7 5ΑΕΦ>Κ ΦΑ ΓΒ63Φ7 Φ:7;Δ ;≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ Ε7ΦΕ Φ:3≅ ΒΔΑ87ΕΕ;Α≅3> 7ϑΒ7ΔΦΕ #Φ ;Ε 3>ΕΑ Ε:ΑΙ≅ Φ:3Φ ;≅ 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε Ι;Φ: :;9:7Δ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 397≅ΦΕ ΓΒ63Φ7 Φ:7;Δ ;≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ Ε7ΦΕ ?ΑΔ7 8Δ7ΧΓ7≅Φ>Κ 2 ΒΑΕΕ;4>7 7ϑΒ>3≅3Φ;Α≅ >;7Ε ;≅ −;?ΕΠ Φ:7ΑΔΚ Α8 Π,3Φ;Α≅3> #≅3ΦΦ7≅Φ;Α≅Π −;?Ε % ' 3Δ9Γ7Ε Φ:3Φ Ι:7≅ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ;Ε :;9:7Δ 397≅ΦΕ Ι;>> Β3Κ ?ΑΔ7 3ΦΦ7≅Φ;Α≅ ΦΑ ≅7Ι ;≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ 5Α?;≅9 3Η3;>34>7 3Ε Φ:7;Δ ΑΒΒΑΔΦΓ≅;ΦΚ 5ΑΕΦ Α8 47;≅9 ;≅3ΦΦ7≅Φ;Η7 ;Ε Ε;9≅;Μ53≅Φ>Κ :;9:7Δ 6ΓΔ;≅9 Φ:7Ε7 Β7Δ;Α6Ε #≅ 366;Φ;Α≅ ΦΑ 3ΕΕ7ΕΕ;≅9 Φ:7 ;?ΒΑΔΦ3≅57 Α8 >73Δ≅;≅9 ;≅ Φ:7 8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ Α8 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ75Φ3$ Φ;Α≅Ε ;Φ ;Ε 5ΔΓ5;3> ΦΑ ;≅Η7ΕΦ;93Φ7 Ι:7Φ:7Δ Φ:7 >73Δ≅;≅9 ΒΔΑ57ΕΕ 5Α≅Η7Δ97Ε ΦΑ 7ΧΓ;>;4Δ;Γ? 3≅6 Ι:7Φ:7Δ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 3Δ7 3≅5:ΑΔ76 3Φ Φ:7 ΒΑ>;5Κ 9Α3> Α8 Φ:7 / #Φ :3Ε Α8Φ7≅ 477≅ 3Δ9Γ76 Φ:3Φ 75Α≅Α?;5 397≅ΦΕ Ε:ΑΓ>6 Γ≅67ΔΕΦ3≅6 Φ:7 ;?Β>;53Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 ?Α≅7Φ3ΔΚ Γ≅;Α≅ 3≅6 :7≅57 5Α≅$ 5>Γ67 Φ:3Φ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 6;Σ7Δ7≅Φ;3>Ε 53≅≅ΑΦ >3ΕΦ ;≅ Φ:7 ?76;Γ? ΦΑ >Α≅9 ΔΓ≅ %Ε77 8ΑΔ 7ϑ3?Β>7 / % '' ?Β;Δ;53> 7Η;67≅57 ΦΚΒ;53>>Κ Μ≅6Ε >3Δ97 Β7ΔΕ;ΕΦ7≅Φ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 6;Σ7Δ7≅Φ;3>Ε 47ΦΙ77≅ ΓΔΑΒ73≅ 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε %,Α97ΔΕ % ' /7Δ= 3≅6 −Ι3≅=% ' 3≅6 )ΔΦ793 % '' ∀ΑΙ7Η7Δ ;8 35ΦΓ3> ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ;Ε ;≅ΝΓ7≅576 4Κ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 75Α≅Α?;5 397≅ΦΕ Φ:ΔΑΓ9: Ι397 3≅6 ΒΔ;57 Ε7ΦΦ;≅9 47:3Η;ΑΓΔ Φ:7≅ 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 ;≅ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Ε:ΑΓ>6 Γ>Φ;?3Φ7>Κ >736 ΦΑ 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 ;≅ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ Δ3Φ7Ε 35ΔΑΕΕ 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε #Φ ;Ε :7≅57 ;?ΒΑΔΦ3≅Φ ΦΑ 3≅3>ΚΕ7 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 Α8 7ϑΒ75Φ76 :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ Δ3Φ7Ε 3≅6 7ϑΒ75Φ76 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ Δ3Φ7Ε Α8 ΒΔΑ87ΕΕ;Α≅3> 8ΑΔ753ΕΦ7ΔΕ 3Ε Φ:;Ε ?3Κ 9;Η7 ΓΕ ΕΑ?7 ;≅6;53Φ;Α≅ Α≅ Φ:7 >;=7>Κ 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 Α8 8ΓΦΓΔ7 35ΦΓ3> ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ Δ3Φ7Ε .:7 Δ7ΕΓ>ΦΕ ;≅ Φ:;Ε Β3Β7Δ Ε:ΑΙ Φ:3Φ ΒΔΑ87ΕΕ;Α≅3> 8ΑΔ753ΕΦ7ΔΕ 3Δ7 ?ΑΔ7 ;≅5>;≅76 ΦΑ ;≅5ΑΔΒΑΔ3Φ7 Φ:7 ;?Β>;53Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 ?Α≅7Φ3ΔΚ Γ≅;Α≅ ;≅ΦΑ Φ:7;Δ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Φ:3≅ :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6Ε .:7 ΑΓΦ>;≅7 Α8 Φ:;Ε Β3Β7Δ ;Ε 3Ε 8Α>>ΑΙΕ −75Φ;Α≅ 9;Η7Ε 3≅ ΑΗ7ΔΗ;7Ι Α8 Φ:7 63Φ3 −75Φ;Α≅ 6;Ε5ΓΕΕ7Ε Φ:7 97≅7Δ3> ?Α67> Φ:3Φ Ι;>> 47 ΓΕ76 Φ:ΔΑΓ9:ΑΓΦ Φ:;Ε Β3Β7Δ −75Φ;Α≅ ΒΔ7Ε7≅ΦΕ 3≅ 3≅3>ΚΕ;Ε Α8 Φ:7 ΜΦ Α8 Ε;?Β>7 >73Δ≅;≅9 ΔΓ>7Ε ;≅ Φ:7 ΓΔΑΒ73≅ /≅;Α≅ −75Φ;Α≅ Φ7ΕΦΕ 8ΑΔ 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 Α8 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε ΦΑ 7ΧΓ;>;4Δ;Γ? −75Φ;Α≅ 5Α≅5>Γ67Ε 5Α≅Η7Δ97 ΦΑΙ3Δ6Ε Φ:7 Δ3Φ;Α≅3> 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 7ΧΓ;>;4Δ;Γ? ∀ΑΙ7Η7Δ Φ:;Ε 3ΕΕΓ?7Ε Φ:3Φ 397≅ΦΕ ΓΕ7 Φ:7 5ΑΔΔ75Φ ?Α67> Α8 Φ:7 75Α≅Α?Κ #8 Φ:7 ?Α67> ΓΕ76 8ΑΔ 8ΑΔ753ΕΦ;≅9 ;Ε ;≅5ΑΔΔ75Φ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε ?3Κ 5Α≅Η7Δ97 ΦΑΙ3Δ6Ε 3 ΕΑ 53>>76 ΠΔ7ΕΦΔ;5Φ76 Β7Δ57ΒΦ;Α≅Ε 7ΧΓ;>;4Δ;Γ?Π %Η3≅Ε 3≅6 ∀Α≅=3ΒΑ:6 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 67Δ;Η76 8ΔΑ? Φ:7 ΓΔΑΒ73≅ Α??;ΕΕ;Α≅ΠΕ Α≅ΕΓ?7Δ −ΓΔΗ7Κ 3Ε Ι7>> 3Ε 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 ΒΔΑ87ΕΕ;Α≅3> 7ϑΒ7ΔΦΕ 7ϑΦΔ35Φ76 8ΔΑ? Α≅Ε7≅ΕΓΕ 5Α≅Α?;5Ε 3Φ3 8ΑΔ Φ:7 8Α>>ΑΙ;≅9 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε ;Ε ΓΕ76 !7Δ?3≅Κ Δ3≅57 (7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε #Φ3>Κ 3≅6 −Β3;≅ 17 3>ΕΑ ΓΕ7 ΓΔΑ 3Δ73 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Ι:7Δ7 Φ:7 63Φ3 ;Ε 5Α?Β;>76 4Κ 399Δ793Φ;≅9 Φ:7 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔΚ 63Φ3 ΓΕ;≅9 Ι7;9:ΦΕ 43Ε76 Α≅ 735: 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔΚΠΕ Ε:3Δ7 ;≅ ΦΑΦ3> ΓΔΑ 3Δ73 ΒΔ;Η3Φ7 6Α?7ΕΦ;5 5Α≅ΕΓ?ΒΦ;Α≅ 7ϑΒ7≅6;ΦΓΔ7 .:7 Α≅ΕΓ?7Δ −ΓΔΗ7Κ 3Ε=Ε 3ΒΒΔΑϑ;?3Φ7>Κ 5Α≅ΕΓ?7ΔΕ ;≅ Φ:7 ΓΔΑ 3Δ73 8ΑΔ ;≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ Δ793Δ6;≅9 Φ:7;Δ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 8ΓΦΓΔ7 3≅6 Β3ΕΦ ΒΔ;57 67Η7>ΑΒ?7≅ΦΕ .:7 ΕΓΔΗ7Κ ;Ε 5Α≅6Γ5Φ76 Α≅ 3 ?Α≅Φ:>Κ 43Ε;Ε 3≅6 5Α≅ΕΓ?7ΔΕ 3Δ7 3Ε=76 ΦΑ 34ΑΓΦ Φ:7;Δ 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ?Α≅Φ:Ε 3:736 +Γ7ΕΦ;Α≅Ε 3≅6 Δ7ΕΒΑ≅Ε7 53Φ79ΑΔ;7Ε Α8 Φ:7 ΕΓΔΗ7Κ 3Δ7 Ε:ΑΙ≅ ;≅ Φ34>7 .6 ∃. 8.4 3()−∗ 3(!3 #.− 24,%1 /1)#%2 (!5% ∃%5%+./%∃ .5%1 3(% +!23 ,.−3(2 (%8 (!5%
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3∃ "11.1
$ MMM $ MM $ MMM $ M $ MMM $ MMM
M N(Α 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57N Δ77Η7> MM N(Α 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57N Δ77Η7> MMM N(Α 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57N Δ77Η7>
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;≅ −Β3;≅ 3≅6 #Φ3>Κ 5Α≅Ε;ΕΦ7≅Φ>Κ ΑΗ7Δ$7ΕΦ;?3Φ7 Φ:7 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 9Α3> 3≅6 397≅ΦΕ ;≅ !7Δ?3≅Κ 3≅6 Φ:7 (7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε 5Α≅Ε;ΕΦ7≅Φ>Κ Γ≅67Δ$7ΕΦ;?3Φ7 Φ:7 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 9Α3> ΑΔ Φ:7 ΓΔΑΒ73≅ /≅;Α≅ 3Ε 3 Ι:Α>7 ;Φ 53≅ 47 Ε77≅ Φ:3Φ ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ :3Η7 5Α≅Η7Δ976 ΦΑ 3 5Α≅ΕΦ3≅Φ Ι:;5: ;Ε ;≅ >;≅7 Ι;Φ: Φ:7 9Α3> Α8 Φ:7 / ΦΑ =77Β ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 5>ΑΕ7 ΦΑ 4ΓΦ 47>ΑΙ 0 ;9ΓΔ7 Ε:ΑΙΕ Ε?ΑΑΦ:76 ΕΦ3Φ7 7ΕΦ;?3Φ7Ε #Φ 53≅ 47 Ε77≅ Φ:3Φ 7ΕΦ;?3Φ7Ε 8ΑΔ Φ:7 5Α≅ΕΦ3≅Φ Δ;Ε7 ΕΓ4ΕΦ3≅Φ;3>>Κ ;≅ 3≅6 Φ:7≅ 83>> 393;≅ ;≅ !7Δ?3≅Κ 3≅6 Φ:7 (7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε 4ΓΦ ΕΦ3Κ 3Φ 3 :;9: >7Η7> ;≅ #Φ3>Κ 3≅6 −Β3;≅ #≅ Φ:7Δ7 Ι3Ε Φ:7 ;≅ΦΔΑ6Γ5Φ;Α≅ Α8 Φ:7 ΓΔΑΒ73≅ 5ΓΔΔ7≅5Κ 3≅6 Φ:;Ε :36 3 >3Δ97 7Σ75Φ Α≅ :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6ΕΠ Β7Δ57;Η76 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ Δ3Φ7 /7Δ= 3≅6 ∀744;≅= % ' 3>ΕΑ 5Α≅5>Γ67 Φ:3Φ Φ:7 ;≅ΦΔΑ6Γ5Φ;Α≅ Α8 Φ:7 5Α??Α≅ 5ΓΔΔ7≅5Κ :36 Ε;9≅;Μ53≅Φ 7Σ75ΦΕ Α≅ Β7Δ57;Η76 ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ .:7Κ 3Δ9Γ7 Φ:3Φ Φ:;Ε 7Σ75Φ ;Ε 6Γ7 ΦΑ 3 Δ7>3Φ;Η7 ΒΔ;57 ;≅5Δ73Ε7 Α8 Φ:7 ?ΑΕΦ Η;Ε;4>7 7ϑΒ7≅6;ΦΓΔ7 ;Φ7?Ε ;≅ Φ:7 Β7Δ;Α6 478ΑΔ7 Φ:7 ΓΔΑ ;≅ΦΔΑ6Γ5Φ;Α≅ .:7 835Φ Φ:3Φ :ΑΓΕ7:Α>6 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 3Δ7 3Σ75Φ76 4Κ Φ:7 ;≅ΦΔΑ6Γ5Φ;Α≅ Α8 Φ:7 ΓΔΑΒ73≅ 5ΓΔΔ7≅5Κ ΕΑ ΕΓ4ΕΦ3≅Φ;3>>Κ ?73≅Ε Φ:3Φ Α≅7 :3Ε ΦΑ 47 53ΓΦ;ΑΓΕ ;≅ ;≅Φ7ΔΒΔ7Φ;≅9 Φ:7 Δ7ΕΓ>ΦΕ ;≅ Φ34>7 Η7≅ Φ:ΑΓ9: Φ:7 Μ≅3> ΕΦ3Φ7 7ΕΦ;?3Φ7Ε ;≅ Φ34>7 8ΑΔ Φ:7 5Α≅ΕΦ3≅Φ 3Δ7 :;9:>Κ Ε;9≅;Μ53≅Φ ;Φ 5ΑΓ>6 47 Φ:7 53Ε7 Φ:3Φ 3Ε 3 Δ7ΕΓ>Φ Α8 Φ:;Ε Ε:Α5= ;≅ ΑΓΔ 7ΕΦ;?3Φ7Ε 8ΑΔ Φ:7 5Α7Ρ5;7≅ΦΕ 3Δ7 ΕΑ?7Ι:3Φ 3Σ75Φ76 3≅6 ?3Κ ≅ΑΦ :3Η7 5Α≅Η7Δ976 ΦΑ Φ:7;Δ Μ≅3> Η3>Γ7Ε 2 >Α≅97Δ 63Φ3 Β7Δ;Α6 38Φ7Δ Φ:7 ;≅ΦΔΑ6Γ5Φ;Α≅ Α8 Φ:7 5ΓΔΔ7≅5Κ ΙΑΓ>6 7≅34>7 ΓΕ 47 34>7 ΦΑ 47 ?ΑΔ7 5Α≅Μ67≅Φ ;≅ Φ:7 5Α≅5>ΓΕ;Α≅Ε 6Δ3Ι≅ 8ΔΑ? Φ34>7
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!7Δ?3≅Κ Δ3≅57 #Φ3>Κ (7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε −Β3;≅ ΓΔΑ 2Δ73
3∃ "11.1
$ MMM $ MMM $ MMM $ MMM $MM $MMM
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)2#422).−
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%&%1%−#%2
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/ % ' Π#≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ;Σ7Δ7≅Φ;3>Ε ;≅ Φ:7 ΓΔΑ 2Δ73 ∗ΑΦ7≅Φ;3> 3ΓΕ7Ε 3≅6 ∗Α>;5Κ #?$ Β>;53Φ;Α≅ΕΠ −7ΒΦ7?47Δ Δ3≅=8ΓΔΦ 3? ∋3;≅ Η3≅Ε !1 3≅6 ∀Α≅=3ΒΑ: 03Δ;34>7Ε :7>Β ΑΔ753ΕΦ;≅9 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 ,73> 25Φ;Η;ΦΚ ;≅ Φ:7 ΓΔΑ 2Δ73HΠ ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 ∋Α≅7Φ3ΔΚ 5Α≅Α?;5Ε ΗΑ> ΒΒ $ ΑΔΕ7>>Ε ∋ 3≅6 %7≅≅Κ ! % ' Ο−ΓΔΗ7Κ ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε ,3Φ;Α≅3>;ΦΚ 3≅6 Φ:7 Κ≅3?;5Ε Α8 ΓΔΑ 2Δ73 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅Π ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 /ΓΕ;≅7ΕΕ Κ5>7 ∋73ΕΓΔ7?7≅Φ 3≅6 2≅3>ΚΕ;Ε ΗΑ> %' ΒΒ $ ;74Α>6 3≅6 %;>;3≅ & % ' Π∋73ΕΓΔ;≅9 ∗Δ76;5Φ34;>;ΦΚ .:7ΑΔΚ 3≅6 ∋35ΔΑ75Α≅Α?;5 2ΒΒ>;53Φ;Α≅ΕΠ ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 2ΒΒ>;76 5Α≅Α?7ΦΔ;5Ε ΗΑ> ΒΒ $ ;74Α>6 3≅6 ∋3Δ;3≅Α , %' Π Α?Β3Δ;≅9 ∗Δ76;5Φ;Η7 255ΓΔ35ΚΠ ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 /ΓΕ;$ ≅7ΕΕ R 5Α≅Α?;5 −Φ3Φ;ΕΦ;5Ε ΗΑ> ΒΒ $ !7Δ47Δ6;≅9 % ' Ο.:7 #≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ Α≅Φ7≅Φ Α8 −ΓΔΗ7Κ 3Φ3 Α≅ ϑΒ75Φ76 ∗Δ;57 7Η7>ΑΒ?7≅ΦΕ 8ΑΔ ∋Α≅7Φ3ΔΚ ∗Α>;5ΚΠ 5Α≅Α?;5 ,7Ε73Δ5: 7Β3ΔΦ?7≅Φ Α8 Φ:7 7ΓΦΕ5:7 /Γ≅$ 67Ε43≅= ;Ε5ΓΕΕ;Α≅ ∗3Β7Δ (ΑG !7Δ47Δ6;≅9 % ' Π∀ΑΓΕ7:Α>6 Η7ΔΕΓΕ ϑΒ7ΔΦ ΑΔ753ΕΦΕ Α8 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ (7Ι 7Η;67≅57 8ΔΑ? ΓΔΑΒ73≅ −ΓΔΗ7Κ 3Φ3Π ∋;?7Α 7ΓΦΕ5:7 /Γ≅67Ε43≅= ∀3>> −! ,Α47ΔΦΕΑ≅ 3≅6 1;5=7≅Ε ∋, %' Π∋73ΕΓΔ;≅9 5Α≅Α?;5 Α≅Η7Δ97≅57Π #≅Φ7Δ≅3Φ;Α≅3> ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 ;≅3≅57 3≅6 5Α≅Α?;5Ε ΗΑ> %' ΒΒ $ ∀3>> −! 3≅6 −Φ 2Γ4Κ≅ ∋ %' Π/Ε;≅9 Φ:7 %3>?3≅ Μ>Φ7Δ ΦΑ Φ7ΕΦ 8ΑΔ 5Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 3 5Α?Β3Δ;ΕΑ≅ ΦΑ ΑΦ:7Δ ?7Φ:Α6Ε ΓΕ;≅9 3ΔΦ;Μ5;3> 63Φ3Π #≅ΕΦ;ΦΓΦΑ −ΓΒ7Δ;ΑΔ 67 5Α≅Α?;53 7 !7ΕΦ3Α &;Ε4Α≅ ΙΑΔ=;≅9 Β3Β7Δ G ∀3ΔΗ7Κ # &7Κ4ΑΓΔ≅7 −∃ 3≅6 ∗ (7Ι4Α>6 %' Π.7ΕΦ;≅9 Φ:7 7ΧΓ3>;ΦΚ Α8 ΒΔ76;5Φ;Α≅ ?73≅ ΕΧΓ3Δ7 7ΔΔΑΔΕΠ #≅Φ7Δ≅3Φ;Α≅3> ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 ΑΔ753ΕΦ;≅9 ΗΑ> ΒΒ $ ∀Α>67≅ % 3≅6 2 ∗77> % ' Π)≅ .7ΕΦ;≅9 8ΑΔ /≅4;3Ε76≅7ΕΕ 3≅6 Ρ5;7≅5Κ Α8 ΑΔ7$ 53ΕΦΕΠ .:7 ∋3≅5:7ΕΦ7Δ −5:ΑΑ> 0Α> &0### (Α ∃Γ≅7 ΒΒ $ ∋3≅=;Ι (! 3≅6 ,7;Ε , % ' Π−Φ;5=Κ #≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅ ;≅ !7≅7Δ3> ΧΓ;>;4Δ;Γ?Π ∋;?7Α /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΚ Α8 ∀3ΔΗ3Δ6 3≅6 /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΚ Α8 ∗Δ;≅57ΦΑ≅ ∋3Δ57Φ 2 3≅6 (;5Α>;≅; ∃ ∗ % ' Π,75ΓΔΔ7≅Φ :ΚΒ7Δ;≅Ν3Φ;Α≅Ε 3≅6 >73Δ≅;≅9Π 2?7Δ;53≅ 5Α≅Α?;5 ,7Η;7Ι ΒΒ$ ∋3Δ57Φ 2 3≅6 −3Δ97≅Φ . %3' Π Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 Α8 &73ΕΦ −ΧΓ3Δ7Ε &73Δ≅;≅9 ∋75:3≅;Ε? ;≅ −7>8$,787Δ7≅Φ;3> &;≅73Δ −ΦΑ5:3ΕΦ;5 ∋Α67>Π ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 5Α≅Α?;5 .:7ΑΔΚ ΗΑ> ΒΒ $ ∋3Δ57Φ 2 3≅6 −3Δ97≅Φ . %4' Π Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 Α8 &73ΕΦ$−ΧΓ3Δ7Ε &73Δ≅;≅9 ;≅ ≅Η;ΔΑ≅$ ?7≅ΦΕ Ι;Φ: ∀;667≅ −Φ3Φ7 03Δ;34>7Ε 3≅6 ∗Δ;Η3Φ7 #≅8ΑΔ?3Φ;Α≅Π ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 ∗Α>;Φ;53> 5Α≅Α?Κ ΗΑ> %' ΒΒ $
∋;>3≅; % 3' ΟϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε &73Δ≅;≅9 3≅6 ∋35ΔΑ75Α≅Α?;5 ∗7ΔΕ;ΕΦ7≅57Π ∋;?7Α /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΚ Α8 ∗Δ;≅57ΦΑ≅ ∋;>3≅; % 4' Ο263ΒΦ;Η7 &73Δ≅;≅9 3≅6 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ∗7ΔΕ;ΕΦ7≅57Π ∋;?7Α /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΚ Α8 ∗Δ;≅57ΦΑ≅ (;7>Ε7≅ ∀ % 3' Π#≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε ;≅ Φ:7 / $ ,7ΕΓ>ΦΕ 8ΔΑ? −ΓΔΗ7Κ 3Φ3Π ;Ε5ΓΕΕ;Α≅ ∗3Β7Δ (Α G %−Α≅67Δ8ΑΔΕ5:Γ≅9Ε47Δ7;5: ∀Γ?4Α>6Φ /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΤΦ ΛΓ /7Δ>;≅' )ΔΒ:3≅;67Ε 2 3≅6 1;>>;3?Ε ∃ % ' Ο#?Β7Δ875Φ %≅ΑΙ>7697 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 3≅6 ∋Α≅7Φ3ΔΚ ∗Α>;5ΚΠ 767Δ3> ,7Ε7ΔΗ7 /Α3Δ6 ;≅3≅57 3≅6 5Α≅Α?;5Ε ;Ε5ΓΕΕ;Α≅ −7Δ;7Ε $ )ΔΦ793 % ' Π∗7ΔΕ;ΕΦ7≅Φ #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ;Σ7Δ7≅Φ;3>Ε ;≅ ΓΔΑΒ7Π /3≅5Α 67 ΕΒ3≅3 1ΑΔ=$ ;≅9 ∗3Β7Δ (Α ∗7Ε3Δ3≅ ∋ ∀ %' .:7 >;?;ΦΕ ΦΑ Δ3Φ;Α≅3> 7ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε /3Ε;5 />35=Ι7>> )ϑ8ΑΔ6 ∗83 Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 ,7>3Φ;Η7 ∗Δ;57Ε 3≅6 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ ;≅ ΓΔΑΒ7Π /Α3Δ6 Α8 !ΑΗ7Δ≅ΑΔΕ Α8 Φ:7 767Δ3> ,7Ε7ΔΗ7 −ΚΕΦ7? Α8 #≅Φ7Δ≅3Φ;Α≅3> ;≅3≅57 ;Ε5ΓΕΕ;Α≅ (Α −3Δ97≅Φ . %' Π.:7 Α≅ΧΓ7ΕΦ Α8 2?7Δ;53≅ #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅Π ∗Δ;≅57ΦΑ≅ /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΚ ∗Δ7ΕΕ ∗Δ;≅57ΦΑ≅ −5:Γ?35:7Δ % ' Π ΑΔ753ΕΦ;≅9 !7Δ?3≅ !∗ ΓΕ;≅9 2>Φ7Δ≅3Φ;Η7 35ΦΑΔ ∋Α67>Ε 43Ε76 Α≅ >3Δ97 3Φ3Ε7ΦΕΠ 7ΓΦΕ5:7 /Γ≅67Ε43≅= ;Ε5ΓΕΕ;Α≅ ∗3Β7Δ −7Δ;7Ε 5Α≅Α?;5 −ΦΓ6;7Ε (Α G ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 ΑΔ753ΕΦ;≅9 8ΑΔΦ:5Α?;≅9 −;?Ε % ' Π#?Β>;53Φ;Α≅Ε Α8 ,3Φ;Α≅3> #≅3ΦΦ7≅Φ;Α≅Π ∃ΑΓΔ≅3> Α8 ∋Α≅7Φ3ΔΚ 5Α≅Α?;5Ε ΗΑ> % ' ΒΒ$ −;?Ε % ' Π,3Φ;Α≅3> #≅3ΦΦ7≅Φ;Α≅ 2 ,7Ε73Δ5: 297≅63Π ∋;?7Α /≅;Η7ΔΕ;ΦΚ Α8 ∗Δ;≅57ΦΑ≅ −Φ 2Γ4Κ≅ ∋ %' Π Α≅Η7Δ97≅57 35ΔΑΕΕ ;≅6ΓΕΦΔ;3>;Ε76 5ΑΓ≅ΦΔ;7Ε % Θ' ≅7Ι Δ7ΕΓ>ΦΕ ΓΕ;≅9 Φ;?7 Ε7Δ;7Ε ?7Φ:Α6ΕΠ ?Β;Δ;53> 5Α≅Α?;5Ε %' ΒΒ Θ
−−%7 !∀+%2 !−∃ )∋41%2
;9ΓΔ7 25ΦΓ3> #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 ∀ΑΓΕ7:Α>6 ϑΒ75Φ76 #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 8ΔΑ? Φ$ 8ΑΔ Φ 5
4
4 3 3 2 2 1
1
0 90
92
94
96
98
Actual Inflation
00
02
04
06
0 90
Household Expectations
92
94
96
Actual Inflation
!7Δ?3≅Κ
5
8
4
6
3
4
2
2
1
0 92
94
96
98
Actual Inflation
00
02
04
06
Household Expectations
90
92
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 94
96
98
00
04
06
Household Expectations
96
98
00
02
02
04
06
Household Expectations
−Β3;≅
04
06
Household Expectations
(7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε
7
Actual Inflation
94
Actual Inflation
8
92
02
0
#Φ3>Κ
90
00
Δ3≅57
10
90
98
;9ΓΔ7 25ΦΓ3> #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 Α≅Ε7≅ΕΓΕ ΑΔ753ΕΦΕ 8ΔΑ? Φ$ 8ΑΔ Φ 7
3.5
6
3.0
5
2.5
4
2.0
3
1.5
2
1.0
1
0.5
0 90
92
94
96
98
Actual Inflation
00
02
04
06
0.0 90
Expert Expectations
92
94
96
98
Actual Inflation
!7Δ?3≅Κ
00
02
04
06
Expert Expectations
Δ3≅57
7
4.5
6
4.0 3.5
5
3.0 4
2.5
3
2.0 1.5
2
1.0 1 90
92
94
96
98
Actual Inflation
00
02
04
06
Expert Expectations
0.5 90
92
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 94
96
Actual Inflation
98
98
00
00
02
04
06
Expert Expectations
−Β3;≅
02
04
Expert Expectations
(7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε
8
92
96
Actual Inflation
#Φ3>Κ
90
94
06
;9ΓΔ7 25ΦΓ3> #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 ΑΔ753ΕΦΕ 8ΔΑ? Φ$ 8ΑΔ Φ ΓΕ;≅9 )ΒΦ;?3> Α≅ΕΦ3≅Φ !3;≅ 3≅6 ∋Α67> 5
4
4 3 3 2 2 1
1
0 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
0
06
90
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 1)
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 4)
!7Δ?3≅Κ
Δ3≅57
7
5
6 4 5 3 4 2
3
1
2 1 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 1)
0 90
92
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 94
96
98
98
00
(7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε
8
92
96
00
02
04
02
04
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 1)
#Φ3>Κ
90
94
06
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 2)
−Β3;≅
06
;9ΓΔ7 ∀ΑΓΕ7:Α>6 ϑΒ75Φ3Φ;Α≅Ε 8ΔΑ? Φ$ 8ΑΔ Φ 3≅6 !7≅7Δ3Φ76 ΑΔ753ΕΦΕ ΓΕ;≅9 /7ΕΦ$ ;ΦΦ;≅9 !3;≅ ∗3Δ3?7Φ7ΔΕ 3≅6 /7ΕΦ$ ;ΦΦ;≅9 ∋Α67> 5
4.0 3.5
4 3.0 2.5
3
2.0
2
1.5 1.0
1
0.5
0 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
0.0 90
92
Household Inflation Expectations Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 1)
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Household Inflation Expectations Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 2)
!7Δ?3≅Κ
Δ3≅57
10
5
8
4 3
6
2 4 1 2 0 0 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Household Inflation Expectations Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 4)
-1 90
92
#Φ3>Κ
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 92
94
96
98
96
98
00
(7Φ:7Δ>3≅6Ε
8
90
94
00
02
04
02
04
Household Inflation Expectations Forecasts from t-12 for t (CGLS; Model 4)
06
Household Inflation Expectations Forecasts from t-12 for t (RLS; Model 2)
−Β3;≅
06
;9ΓΔ7 25ΦΓ3> #≅Ν3Φ;Α≅ 3≅6 !7≅7Δ3Φ76 ΑΔ753ΕΦΕ /Ε;≅9 )ΒΦ;?3> !3;≅ ∗3Δ3?7Φ7ΔΕ 3≅6 )ΒΦ;?3> ∋Α67> 7
3.5
6
3.0
5
2.5
4
2.0
3
1.5
2
1.0
1
0.5
0 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-4 for t (CGLS; Model 3)
0.0 90
92
94
!7Δ?3≅Κ
6 5 4 3 2 1 92
94
96
98
00
98
00
Δ3≅57
7
90
96
02
04
02
04
Actual Inflation Forecasts from t-4 for t (CGLS; Model 1)
06
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Household Expectations Forecasts from t-4 for t (CGLS; Model 2)
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The following Discussion Papers have been published since 2006: Series 1: Economic Studies 1
2006
The dynamic relationship between the Euro overnight rate, the ECB’s policy rate and the term spread
2
2006
Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence
3
2006
Going multinational: What are the effects on home market performance?
Dieter Nautz Christian J. Offermanns Álvarez, Dhyne, Hoeberichts Kwapil, Le Bihan, Lünnemann Martins, Sabbatini, Stahl Vermeulen, Vilmunen
Robert Jäckle
4
2006
Exports versus FDI in German manufacturing: firm performance and participation in interJens Matthias Arnold national markets Katrin Hussinger
5
2006
A disaggregated framework for the analysis of Kremer, Braz, Brosens structural developments in public finances Langenus, Momigliano Spolander
6
2006
Bond pricing when the short term interest rate follows a threshold process
7
2006
Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany’s intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports Kerstin Stahn
8
2006
The coordination channel of foreign exchange Stefan Reitz intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis Mark P. Taylor
9
2006
Capital, labour and productivity: What role do they play in the potential GDP weakness of France, Germany and Italy? 37
Wolfgang Lemke Theofanis Archontakis
Antonio Bassanetti Jörg Döpke, Roberto Torrini Roberta Zizza
10
2006
11
2006
12
13
2006
2006
Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for unemployment and inflation dynamics
J. Döpke, D. Hartmann C. Pierdzioch Kai Christoffel Tobias Linzert
Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions
Thomas A. Knetsch
Foreign direct investment in the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?
Guntram B. Wolff
14
2006
Inflation and relative price variability in the euro Dieter Nautz area: evidence from a panel threshold model Juliane Scharff
15
2006
Internalization and internationalization under competing real options
Jan Hendrik Fisch
Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation
Johannes Hoffmann Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim
16
2006
17
2006
Identifying the role of labor markets for monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model
Kai Christoffel Keith Küster Tobias Linzert
18
2006
Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?
Boris Hofmann
19
2006
Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia
Kerstin Bernoth Guntram B. Wolff
20
2006
How would formula apportionment in the EU affect the distribution and the size of the corporate tax base? An analysis based on German multinationals
Clemens Fuest Thomas Hemmelgarn Fred Ramb
38
21
2006
Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation Campbell Leith and non-Ricardian consumers Leopold von Thadden
22
2006
Real-time forecasting and political stock market Martin Bohl, Jörg Döpke anomalies: evidence for the U.S. Christian Pierdzioch
23
2006
A reappraisal of the evidence on PPP: a systematic investigation into MA roots in panel unit root tests and their implications
Christoph Fischer Daniel Porath
24
2006
Margins of multinational labor substitution
Sascha O. Becker Marc-Andreas Mündler
25
2006
Forecasting with panel data
Badi H. Baltagi
26
2006
Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data
Atsushi Inoue Lutz Kilian Fatma Burcu Kiraz
27
2006
Learning, structural instability and present value calculations
H. Pesaran, D. Pettenuzzo A. Timmermann
28
2006
Empirical Bayesian density forecasting in Iowa and shrinkage for the Monte Carlo era
Kurt F. Lewis Charles H. Whiteman
29
2006
The within-distribution business cycle dynamics Jörg Döpke of German firms Sebastian Weber
30
2006
Dependence on external finance: an inherent industry characteristic?
George M. von Furstenberg Ulf von Kalckreuth
31
2006
Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model
Sandra Eickmeier
39
32
2006
Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Christine De Mol is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to Domenico Giannone principal components? Lucrezia Reichlin
33
2006
Real-time forecasting of GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data
Christian Schumacher Jörg Breitung
34
2006
Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank lending: S. Eickmeier evidence for Germany and the euro area B. Hofmann, A. Worms
35
2006
Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia
Mark Hallerberg Guntram B. Wolff
36
2006
Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany
C. Moser T. Nestmann, M. Wedow
37
2006
Has the export pricing behaviour of German enterprises changed? Empirical evidence from German sectoral export prices
Kerstin Stahn
How to treat benchmark revisions? The case of German production and orders statistics
Thomas A. Knetsch Hans-Eggert Reimers
How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports
Claudia Stirböck
38
39
2006
2006
40
2006
Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?
C. M. Buch, J. Döpke H. Strotmann
41
2006
The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis
Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk Jörn Tenhofen Guntram B. Wolff
40
42
43
44
2006
2006
2006
How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach
Sandra Eickmeier Christina Ziegler
Regionalwährungen in Deutschland – Lokale Konkurrenz für den Euro?
Gerhard Rösl
Precautionary saving and income uncertainty in Germany – new evidence from microdata
Nikolaus Bartzsch
45
2006
The role of technology in M&As: a firm-level comparison of cross-border and domestic deals
Rainer Frey Katrin Hussinger
46
2006
Price adjustment in German manufacturing: evidence from two merged surveys
Harald Stahl
A new mixed multiplicative-additive model for seasonal adjustment
Stephanus Arz
47
2006
48
2006
Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany
Ivo J.M. Arnold Clemens J.M. Kool Katharina Raabe
01
2007
The effect of FDI on job separation
Sascha O. Becker Marc-Andreas Mündler
02
2007
Threshold dynamics of short-term interest rates: empirical evidence and implications for the Theofanis Archontakis term structure Wolfgang Lemke
03
2007
Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data
Dias, Dossche, Gautier Hernando, Sabbatini Stahl, Vermeulen
04
2007
Unemployment and employment protection in a unionized economy with search frictions
Nikolai Stähler
41
05
2007
End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics S. Reitz, M. A. Schmidt M. P. Taylor
06
2007
Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data
C. Gerberding F. Seitz, A. Worms
07
2007
Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: evidence for the German Länder
Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk Guntram B. Wolff
08
2007
An assessment of the trends in international price competitiveness among EMU countries
Christoph Fischer
Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities
Michael Scharnagl Christian Schumacher
09
2007
10
2007
A note on the coefficient of determination in Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim regression models with infinite-variance variables Mico Loretan
11
2007
Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone a heterogeneous expectations approach
Christian Bauer Paul De Grauwe, Stefan Reitz
12
2007
Money and housing evidence for the euro area and the US
Claus Greiber Ralph Setzer
13
2007
An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area
Wolfgang Lemke
14
2007
Does anticipation of government spending matter? Jörn Tenhofen Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR Guntram B. Wolff
15
2007
On-the-job search and the cyclical dynamics of the labor market
Michael Krause Thomas Lubik
16
2007
Heterogeneous expectations, learning and European inflation dynamics
Anke Weber
42
Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 01
2006
Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time
02
2006
Finance and growth in a bank-based economy: Michael Koetter is it quantity or quality that matters? Michael Wedow
03
2006
Measuring business sector concentration by an infection model
Klaus Düllmann
Heterogeneity in lending and sectoral growth: evidence from German
Claudia M. Buch Andrea Schertler
bank-level data
Natalja von Westernhagen
04
2006
J. Döpke, D. Hartmann C. Pierdzioch
05
2006
Does diversification improve the performance of German banks? Evidence from individual bank loan portfolios
Evelyn Hayden Daniel Porath Natalja von Westernhagen
06
2006
Banks’ regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission
Christian Merkl Stéphanie Stolz
07
2006
Empirical risk analysis of pension insurance – the case of Germany
W. Gerke, F. Mager T. Reinschmidt C. Schmieder
08
2006
The stability of efficiency rankings when risk-preferences and objectives are different
Michael Koetter
09
2006
Sector concentration in loan portfolios and economic capital
Klaus Düllmann Nancy Masschelein
10
2006
The cost efficiency of German banks: a comparison of SFA and DEA
E. Fiorentino A. Karmann, M. Koetter
11
2006
Limits to international banking consolidation
F. Fecht, H. P. Grüner
43
12
2006
Money market derivatives and the allocation of liquidity risk in the banking sector
Falko Fecht Hendrik Hakenes
01
2007
Granularity adjustment for Basel II
Michael B. Gordy Eva Lütkebohmert
02
2007
Efficient, profitable and safe banking: an oxymoron? Evidence from a panel VAR approach
Michael Koetter Daniel Porath
03
2007
Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking
Thomas Kick Michael Koetter
04
2007
Open-end real estate funds in Germany – genesis and crisis
C. E. Bannier F. Fecht, M. Tyrell
05
2007
Diversification and the banks’ risk-return-characteristics – evidence from loan portfolios of German banks
A. Behr, A. Kamp C. Memmel, A. Pfingsten
06
2007
How do banks adjust their capital ratios? Evidence from Germany
Christoph Memmel Peter Raupach
07
2007
Modelling dynamic portfolio risk using risk drivers of elliptical processes
Rafael Schmidt Christian Schmieder
08
2007
Time-varying contributions by the corporate bond and CDS markets to credit risk price discovery Niko Dötz
09
2007
Banking consolidation and small business finance – empirical evidence for Germany
44
K. Marsch, C. Schmieder K. Forster-van Aerssen
Visiting researcher at the Deutsche Bundesbank
The Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt is looking for a visiting researcher. Among others under certain conditions visiting researchers have access to a wide range of data in the Bundesbank. They include micro data on firms and banks not available in the public. Visitors should prepare a research project during their stay at the Bundesbank. Candidates must hold a Ph D and be engaged in the field of either macroeconomics and monetary economics, financial markets or international economics. Proposed research projects should be from these fields. The visiting term will be from 3 to 6 months. Salary is commensurate with experience. Applicants are requested to send a CV, copies of recent papers, letters of reference and a proposal for a research project to:
Deutsche Bundesbank Personalabteilung Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14 60431 Frankfurt GERMANY
45
