House Price Index - Halifax

05/08/2016

Annual house price growth unchanged at 8.4% UK House Prices

80 60

33

40

9

20

-2

7

-40 -60 -80

40

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

68 64 63 64 66 65 66 62 57 62 60 64 58 61 56 52

19 15 15 20 23

0 -20 -14 -28 -32

-9

-6

15

23 29 24 19 5

0

12 11

21 21 26 16 1

-1 -17

-19

-32 -48

HPO - balance of % higher minus % lower

Mar-16

Dec-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Apr-15

May-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

Mar-14

Oct-11

-100

Apr-11

Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said: “House prices in the three months to July were 1.6% higher than in the previous quarter; up from 1.1% in June but comfortably lower than earlier in the year. The annual rate of growth was unchanged at 8.4%; the lowest since July 2015.

Nov

100

Dec-13

£214,678

Sep-13

Average Price

Monthly % Change

House Price Optimism & Economic Optimism

Jun-13

-1.0%

3 Month on 3 Month % Change

Sources: Halifax, Markit.

Mar-13

Monthly change

Sep

+1.6%

Oct-12

Quarterly change

Dec-12

+8.4%

Aug

Annual change

Quarterly Annual % Change

(seasonally adjusted)

Jun-12

July 2016

Jan-12

UK House prices

Oct

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Jul

•

Prices in the three months to July were 8.4% higher than in the same three months of 2015 House prices in the last three months (May-July) were 1.6% higher than in the preceding three months

Mar-12

•

EOI - balance of % improve minus % get worse

Sources: Halifax, Ipsos Mori.

"There are signs that house price growth is slowing with a deceleration in both the annual and quarterly rates of increase in the past few months. Nonetheless, the current rates remain robust.

House Price Earnings Ratio 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5

Jul-16

Jul-15

Jul-14

Jul-13

Jul-12

Jul-11

Jul-10

Jul-09

Jul-08

Jul-07

Jul-06

Jul-05

Jul-04

Jul-03

Jul-02

2.0

Jul-01

“July’s monthly decline largely offsets June’s increase. The month-on-month changes, however, can be erratic and falls often occur within an upward trend. Overall, it remains too early to determine if there has been any impact on the housing market as a result of June’s EU referendum result.”

House Price Earnings Ratio

Sources: Halifax calculations based on data from Halifax, Markit and ONS.

ABOUT THE HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE INDEX The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. From this data, a "standardised" house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.

For more information on our housing market research, click on http://www.halifax.co.uk/house-price-index

05/08/2016

Key facts House Prices •

House prices in the three months to July were 1.6% higher than in the preceding three months (FebruaryApril). This was above June’s 1.1% increase and similar to the rates recorded in April and May (both 1.5%), but significantly lower than in February and March.

•

Prices in the three months to July were 8.4% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This annual rate was unchanged from June, at the lowest since July 2015 (7.8%).

•

House prices declined by 1.0% between June and July. This largely offset the 1.2% increase in June. The month-on-month changes can be erratic and monthly falls often occur within an upward trend. This was the third monthly fall so far this year and was smaller than February’s decline (-1.5%). The quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend.

•

The number of first time buyers (FTBs) increased by an estimated 10% in the first six months of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, according to the latest Halifax First Time Buyer Review. There were an estimated 154,200 FTBs in the first half of 2016 compared with 140,500 in the same period last year. This was more than double the market low in the first half of 2009 (72,700). Nonetheless, the number of FTBs in the first half of 2016 was nearly a fifth lower (36,700) than in 2006.

Housing Activity •

Home sales continued to improve in June. Sales have been heavily distorted in recent months by the introduction of higher stamp duty tax rates for buy to let and second home purchases in April. A rush to complete sales ahead of the tax change caused a sharp rise in March, which was followed by a substantial decline in April. UK home sales continued to recover in June with a 5% increase compared with May. Overall, sales in the first half of 2016 were 11% higher than in the same period last year. (Source: HMRC, seasonally-adjusted figures)

•

Mortgage approvals fell slightly in June. The stamp duty change has also affected mortgage approvals in recent months. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – declined by 3% between May and June. Approvals in the three months to June were 9% lower than in the first three months of 2016. Nonetheless, approvals in the first six months of 2016 were 8% higher than in the first half of 2015. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

•

Stock of homes for sale remains very low. New instructions by home sellers fell for the fourth month in a row in June. This contributed to a fall in the stock of homes available for sales, which remains close to a record low. (Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly report)

Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that Markit and Halifax believe is collated with care, but Markit and/or Halifax do not make any warranty, guarantee or representation as to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness, or its fitness for any particular purpose. The Index is provided on an "as is", "where is" basis. Markit reserves the right to vary or discontinue the Index at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Various factors, including external factors beyond Markit and Halifax’s control might necessitate material changes to the Index.


05/08/2016

UK House Prices: Historical Data All Houses, All Buyers (Seasonally Adjusted) Index 1983=100 1

Standardised Average Price £ 2

Monthly Change %

Quarterly Change %*

Annual Change %**

Period Jul 2015

644.4

199,117

-0.2

2.0

7.8

Aug

662.6

204,722

2.8

2.8

9.0

Sep

656.8

202,931

-0.9

2.4

8.7

Oct

663.3

204,932

1.0

3.0

9.7

Nov

662.9

204,830

-0.1

1.6

9.0

Dec

676.2

208,943

2.0

2.0

9.5

Jan 2016

687.8

212,502

1.7

2.2

9.7

Feb

677.5

209,334

-1.5

3.0

9.7

Mar

692.4

213,945

2.2

2.8

10.0

Apr

686.8

212,204

-0.8

1.5

9.2

May

693.0

214,115

0.9

1.5

9.2

Jun

701.4

216,726

1.2

1.1

8.4

Jul

694.8

214,678

-1.0

1.6

8.4

EDITORS' NOTES * House price data on a quarterly basis provides the clearest indication of overall market trends, smoothing out the monthly volatility caused by the reduced number of monthly transactions used to calculate all house price indices. ** The annual change numbers are the quarterly non seasonally adjusted year-on-year figures. These figures provide a better picture of underlying trends compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations. 1. INDEX The standardised index is seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Bureau of the Census X-11 moving-average method based on a rolling 84-month series. Each month, the seasonally adjusted figure for the same month a year ago and last month's figure are subject to revision. 2. STANDARDISED AVERAGE PRICE The standardised average price is calculated using the HPI’s mix adjusted methodology. . For further information please contact:

Email: [email protected] For historical data or for technical queries contact [email protected]

PRESS OFFICE CONTACTS: Halifax press team: Angus Cheyne: 0131 655 7019/ 07970 566 594 [email protected] Sarika Thanki: 07557 661 569 [email protected] Kimberley Hamilton: 07557 257 298 [email protected]



05/08/2016

About IHS Markit (www.ihsmarkit.com) IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth. IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners © 2016 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved. The intellectual property rights to the Halifax House Price Index (the “Index”) provided herein is owned by Markit. The use of the Halifax name and logo on the Index by Markit is under licence from Lloyds Banking Group and its affiliates. Markit and the Markit logo are registered trade marks of Markit Group Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. For the avoidance of doubt, the Index and the data cannot be used as a “benchmark” under the Principles for Financial Benchmarks published by the International Organization Of Securities Commissions in July, 2013 or the European Union Regulation for Financial Benchmarks any other similar or comparable framework, principles, guidelines, rules, regulations or laws governing the administration of, submission of data to or the management of benchmarks and indices, including for the purposes of measuring the performance of a financial instrument or determining the interest payable, or other sums due under financial contracts or financial instruments or determining their value or the price at which they be bought, sold, traded or redeemed. A licence from Markit is required for benchmark and all other uses of the Halifax House Price Index.

