). Xian Fang 217-244-7226 (
Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2014
Presented To
Illinois Association of Realtors From R
E
A
L
Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois
March 20, 2014
Contact:
Geoffrey Hewings 217-333-4740 (
[email protected]) Xian Fang 217-244-7226 (
[email protected])
Housing Forecast
March 2014
2
Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2014 The Housing Market In February, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the second consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but still recorded moderately robust gains in median housing prices. 7,868 houses were sold in Illinois, 6.2% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 5,574 houses were sold, 8.2% less than last February. The median price was $132,500 in Illinois, up 6.9% from February last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $156,000, representing an annual increase of 11.4%. The sales forecast for March, April and May 2014 suggests a continuing negative growth trend on the yearly basis but a positive growth trend on the monthly basis. Annually, the three-month average forecasts point to a decrease between 10.5% and 14.2% for Illinois while for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range between 11.1% and 15.0%. On month-to-month basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 22.0%-29.8% for Illinois and 22.0%29.8% for the Chicago PMSA. The median price forecasts indicate continuing annual increases in median prices for March, April and May. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.8% in March, 4.4% in April and 4.1% in May. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 12.4% in March, 5.9% in April and 6.1% in May. As a comparison to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI1 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 6.6% in March, 3.0% in April and 3.4% in May. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 10.6% in March, 6.0% in April and 6.7% in May. REAL HPI takes the house characteristics into account and constructs comparable “baskets” of homes for each month. While the differences between median index and REAL index narrowed in February compared to last month, it probably signals less structural changes in the housing market (e.g., similar number of two bedroom houses sold in the current month and forecast month). While the weather obviously provided a major source of explanation for the slow growth of sales, other factors also contributed. Among them, a declining housing inventory for sale, rising housing prices and an uptick in home mortgage interest rates all contributed, but still the bad weather was the main factor in depressing sales on an annual basis. Recall that a year ago, the weather was much milder. However, Bloomberg pointed out that the decrease in first-time homebuyers contributed to a slowdown in sales. The National Association of REALTORS® revealed that the percentage of first-time homebuyers decreased to 26% in January from 30% a year ago. Zillow provided an alternative perspective. A Zillow survey revealed that 10% of renters are seeking to buy their first home in the upcoming year but that investors may have crowded these buyers.
1
REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.
Housing Forecast
March 2014
3
There is both good news and bad news for homeowners in terms of affordability. The first good news is that the U.S. Senate quickly passed the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act that would protect homeowners against the excessive premiums imposed on them due to the new U.S. flood map released in 2012. Moreover, officials have been actively initiating programs for advocating home affordability in the hope of stabilizing neighborhoods that might be under threat. Governor Quinn announced in early March that the Illinois Homebuyer Rehabilitation Assistance Program would assist 240 low and moderate income homebuyers with more than $6.6 million to buy vacant properties in targeted communities. Some less attractive news was the announcement of increases in homeowner insurance rates announced by State Farm. As the largest insurer of homes in Illinois—with a 33% market shares—State Farm increased homeowners’ rates by about 4.9% at the beginning of 2014,2 and this is largely related to the weather-related losses in the past few years. Furthermore, as Chicago Tribune reported, the tax reform proposal made by Republican Dave Camp would remove or reduce many real estate tax benefits. Foreclosure mediation efforts are continuing and foreclosure situations are improving. Following several other counties in the state that had implemented foreclosure mediation programs, Kane County launched the Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program in January of this year. The goal is to find an alternate solution to foreclosures that can benefit both borrows and lenders alike and to speed up the foreclosure process. According RealtyTrac Inc., Chicago-area foreclosure fillings in February fell more than the nation as a whole. As of February 2014, data showed that there are 34,936 homes at some stage of foreclosure — this comprises the foreclosure inventory. REAL’s analysis projects that the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels3 by February 2015 if the declines in the average rates of the past 6 months (-7.9%) were sustained. More broadly, the business environment in the Chicago area also shows some positive and less attractive features. According to Crain’s Chicago Business, Moody’s lowered Chicago’s credit rating from A3 to Baa1 with a negative outlook. Chicago became one of the lowest-rated major cities across the country and the lowered rating implies that it will be more costly to attract investors to this area. However, Governor Quinn announced that the Chicago area ranked the number one metro market for business development according to an annual analysis by Site Selection magazine, while the state ranked the third in the nation. The Housing Market – Current Condition In February, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the second consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained moderate gains in median housing prices. 7,868 houses were sold in Illinois, 6.2% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 5,574 houses were sold, 8.2% less than last February. The median price was $132,500 in Illinois, up 6.9% from February last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $156,000, up 11.4% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago
2
Crain’s Chicago Business: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140305/NEWS01/140309893/state-farmhikes-homeowners-rates-in-illinois 3 Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005
Housing Forecast
March 2014
4
PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for March 2014 report table) In February, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.5 months4 (down from 6.1 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.1 months (down from 4.8 months a year ago). (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months’ Supply by Price Range figures) In February, homes priced below $200K held a smaller market share compared to a year ago, while homes at all other higher price ranges received increases in market shares. For Illinois, homes priced below $200K held a market share that decreased to 68.8% from 72.2% a year ago. The comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was 61.8%, a large decrease from 66.7% recorded in February 2013. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) In terms of house characteristics, there appears to be a more stable market structure than that revealed by the sales price stratifications. More than 40% homes sold in Illinois and Chicago PMSA have 3 bedrooms, while about another 40% of homes sold have 2 bedrooms or 4 bedrooms. As for bathrooms, 40%-50% homes sold have 2 bathrooms, followed by homes with 1 bathroom that account for more than 30% of the sales. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification figures)
The Housing Market – Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates continuing annual increases in median prices for March, April and May. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.8% in March, 4.4% in April and 4.1% in May. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 12.4% in March, 5.9% in April and 6.1% in May. (Reference: Forecast for March 2014 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI5 forecast indicates slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 6.6% in March, 3.0% in April and 3.4% in May. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 10.6% in March, 6.0% in April and 6.7% in May. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable “baskets” of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for March, April and May 2014 suggests a continuing negative growth trend on a yearly basis but a continuing positive growth trend on a monthly basis. Annually, the three-month average forecasts point to a decrease between 10.5% and 14.2% for Illinois and, for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range from 11.1% to 15%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 22.0%-29.8% for Illinois and 22.0%-29.8% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for March 2014 report table) The pending home sales index6 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This February, homes put under contract decreased on a monthly basis and changed slightly on a yearly basis. The pending home sales index is 117.0 (2008=100) in Illinois, up 8.5% 4
Months’ supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months. 5 REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details. 6 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year 2008.
Housing Forecast
March 2014
5
from last month but down 13.6% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 143.0, up 14.2% from last month and down 9.3% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In February 2014, 2,307 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 37.8% and 10.1% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 3,629 foreclosures were completed7 (up 25.0% and down 33.5% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). As of February 2014, there are 34,936 homes at some stage of foreclosures — the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates were -7.9% in the past 6 months, -6.3% in the last 12 months and -3.5% in the last 24 months. Given these rates of change, the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels8 by February 2015, May 2015 and Jun 2016 respectively. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures).
The Economy
In February 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate edged up to 6.7% from 6.6% last month. The number of nonfarm payroll jobs experienced a gain of 175,000. Among all industries, professional and business services (+79,000) and wholesale trade (+15,000) added most jobs. Compared to last month, residential construction sectors did not contribute much to the job gains. Residential building construction added 3,400 jobs while residential specialty trade contractor jobs declined by 1,700. In January 2013, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate was little changed at 8.7% while 27,600 nonfarm payroll jobs were lost. Through January 2013, Illinois has added 240,900 new private sector jobs since February 2010 when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession.
Longer-term Outlook
7 8
In February once again, two consumer confidence indices pointed in different directions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 78.1 (1985=100) from 79.4 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged up slightly to 81.6 from 81.2. While the former index indicated consumers’ positive sentiment about current economic conditions and less confidence in the short-term outlook, the later index characterized the opposite sentiment—less confidence in current conditions but more positive perspective towards the future of the economy.
This is when an auction occurs, no matter what the auction results are. Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005
Housing Forecast
March 2014
6
Forecast for March 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual
Monthly
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Dec-13
9.7%
10.0%
5.0%
6.4%
Jan-14
-6.0%
-7.4%
-29.1%
-28.8%
Feb-14
-6.2%
-8.2%
-3.2%
-5.3%
-0.1%
-1.1%
-26.4%
-26.8%
3 Month Avg.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois
Monthly
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Mar-14
-9.3%
-12.5%
-9.2%
-12.4%
23.0%
31.2%
24.8%
33.5%
Apr-14
-8.3%
-11.2%
-10.2%
-13.7%
13.5%
18.3%
11.8%
16.0%
May-14
-13.2%
-17.8%
-13.2%
-17.8%
10.3%
14.0%
12.8%
17.4%
3 Month Avg.
-10.5%
-14.2%
-11.1%
-15.0%
22.0%
29.8%
22.0%
29.8%
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Dec-13
$148,500
$176,000
Dec-12
$131,000
$150,000
Jan-14
$135,850
$163,000
Jan-13
$125,000
$140,000
Feb-14
$132,500
$156,000
Feb-13
$124,000
$140,000
Mar-14
$143,939
$174,259
Mar-13
$134,750
$155,000
Apr-14
$151,433
$183,211
Apr-13
$145,000
$172,950
May-14
$161,295
$194,171
May-13
$155,000
$183,000
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Dec-13
13.4%
17.3%
Dec-12
4.8%
3.4%
Jan-14
8.7%
16.4%
Jan-13
1.6%
0.0%
Feb-14
6.9%
11.4%
Feb-13
5.1%
3.7%
Mar-14
6.8%
12.4%
Mar-13
3.7%
2.1%
Apr-14
4.4%
5.9%
Apr-13
7.2%
8.1%
May-14
4.1%
6.1%
May-13
6.9%
7.6%
Housing Forecast
March 2014
7
Forecast for February 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual
Monthly
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Nov-13
0.9%
0.2%
-15.5%
-17.9%
Dec-13
9.5%
9.8%
4.8%
6.3%
Jan-14
-7.5%
-8.9%
-30.1%
-29.9%
1.5%
0.9%
-29.0%
-30.0%
3 Month Avg.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois
Monthly
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Feb-14
-0.9%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-1.3%
3.2%
4.4%
3.2%
4.3%
Mar-14
-6.6%
-8.9%
-7.1%
-9.6%
21.0%
28.5%
19.8%
26.8%
Apr-14
-5.6%
-7.6%
-6.5%
-8.8%
13.5%
18.3%
13.8%
18.6%
-4.7%
-6.4%
-5.3%
-7.1%
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
1.1%
3 Month Avg.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Nov-13
$144,900
$169,500
Nov-12
$135,000
$155,000
Dec-13
$149,000
$176,500
Dec-12
$131,000
$150,000
Jan-14
$136,500
$164,900
Jan-13
$125,000
$140,000
Feb-14
$133,522
$165,496
Feb-13
$124,000
$140,000
Mar-14
$143,860
$180,389
Mar-13
$134,750
$155,000
Apr-14
$150,529
$190,035
Apr-13
$145,000
$172,950
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Nov-13
7.3%
9.4%
Nov-12
5.5%
3.4%
Dec-13
13.7%
17.7%
Dec-12
4.8%
3.4%
Jan-14
9.2%
17.8%
Jan-13
1.6%
0.0%
Feb-14
7.7%
18.2%
Feb-13
5.1%
3.7%
Mar-14
6.8%
16.4%
Mar-13
3.7%
2.1%
Apr-14
3.8%
9.9%
Apr-13
7.2%
8.1%
Housing Forecast
March 2014
8
Illinois Median Home Sales Price
2012
$180,000
2013 2014
$170,000
Median Sales Price
Forecast
$165,000
$161,295 $160,000 $151,433 $150,000 $140,000
$148,500
$143,939 $132,500
$130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Illinois Total Home Sales
2012
18,000
2013 2014
16,000
Forecast 13,000
14,000 12,000
11,592 10,000 10,000 8,000
7,868
6,000 4,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
March 2014
9
Chicago PMSA Median Home Sales Price
2012
$210,000
2013 $200,000
$194,171
Median Sales Price
$190,000
2014
$183,211
$180,000
Forecast
$174,259
$170,000 $160,000 $156,000
$150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales 2014
14,000
2012 2013
12,000
Forecast 9,439
Axis Title
10,000 8,200 8,000 7,200 6,000 5,574 4,000 2,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA_Median
Chicago PMSA_REAL
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4 Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08 Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Apr-14
1.1
Apr-14
Chicago PMSA Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1) Jan-14
IL_REAL
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
IL_Median
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08 Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Housing Forecast March 2014 10
Illinois Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
20 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14
Housing Forecast March 2014
IL Pending Index
11
Pending Home Sales Index (2008=100)
260
220
180
140
100
60
Chicago Pending Index
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
March 2014
12
Illnois Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 4.5
Overall
6.1 7.2
700K~UP
9.8 4.6
Price by Ranges
500K~700K
6.4 4.4
300K~500K
5.5 4.3
200K~300K
5.8 4.3
100K~200K
2014 Feb
6.0
2014 Jan
4.5
0 ~100K -1.0
2013 Feb
6.2 1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 3.1 Overall
4.8 5.5
700K~UP
7.8 3.5
Price by Ranges
500K~700K
4.8 3.2
300K~500K
4.2 3.1
200K~300K
4.6 3.0
2014 Feb
100K~200K
4.7
2014 Jan
2.8
0 ~100K
2013 Feb
4.8 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
40%
36.9%
March 2014
39.7%
13
Illinois Price Stratification 2014 Feb
35%
32.0% 32.5%
2014 Jan
Share of Total Sales
30%
2013 Feb
25% 20% 15.3% 15%
13.6% 10.3%
10%
9.3%
5%
2.9%
2.9% 2.7%
2.1%
0% 0 ~100K
100K~200K
200K~300K
300K~500K
500K~700K
700K~UP
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA Price Stratification 40% 35%
34.2% 30.2%
2014 Feb
31.6% 32.5%
2014 Jan
30%
Share of Total Sales
2013 Feb 25% 17.3%
20%
15.2% 13.1%
15%
11.4%
10% 3.9%
5%
3.8%
3.8%
2.8%
0% 0 ~100K
100K~200K
200K~300K
300K~500K
500K~700K
700K~UP
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
March 2014
14
Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 50% 44.2%
45%
2014 Feb
43.9%
40%
2014 Jan
35%
2013 Feb
30%
26.4%
25.4%
25%
19.8% 21.0%
20% 15% 10%
4.6%
5%
4.5%
3.8%
4.1% 1.1%
1.1%
0% 1 Bedrooms
2 Bedrooms
3 Bedrooms
4 Bedrooms
5 Bedrooms
Other
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 45% 40.4%
40%
40.5%
2014 Feb 2014 Jan
35%
2013 Feb 28.5%
30%
27.3%
25% 19.8%
20%
21.2%
15% 10%
6.0%
5.7%
4.0%
5%
4.0% 1.3%
1.3%
0% 1 Bedrooms
2 Bedrooms
3 Bedrooms
4 Bedrooms
5 Bedrooms
Other
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
March 2014
15
Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 50% 42.5%
45%
2014 Feb
43.2%
2014 Jan
40% 35%
34.0%
33.4%
2013 Feb
30% 25% 20% 15%
13.0% 8.8%
10%
12.4%
9.1%
5%
1.8%
1.9%
0% 1 Bathrooms
2 Bathrooms
3 Bathrooms
4 Bathrooms
Other
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 60% 2014 Feb 50.3%
50.2%
2014 Jan
50%
2013 Feb 40%
36.6%
36.3%
30% 20% 10.1%
10%
10.4% 2.2%
2.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0% 1 Bathrooms
2 Bathrooms
3 Bathrooms
4 Bathrooms
Other
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
March 2014
16
20%
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Housing Forecast March 2014 17
Sales Ratio of Foreclosed Properties Chicago PMSA-3 Month Average
25%
19.3%
15%
10%
5%
0%