How do elite youth soccer players generate options in a time-pressured task? Preliminary results of a longitudinal study on the development of decision-making Lisa Musculus, Babett Lobinger, & Markus Raab German Sport University Cologne, Institute of Psychology, Dept. Performance Psychology
How do elite youth soccer players generate options?
General research questions
Method: Option-generation paradigm
Expert sport performance as a combination of excellent technique and thorough decision-making is of high importance in professional sports (e.g. Baker et al., 2003; Poulton, 1957). In expert novice paradigms, decision-making strategies such as the Take-the-First heuristic (TTF) can differentiate between expertise groups (Belling et al., 2015; Johnson & Raab, 2003; Raab & Johnson, 2007). While superior decision-making performance of experts compared to novices has been shown for adult athletes, little is known on how decision-making skills develop on the route to expertise.
1. How does heuristic decision-making develop?
Video-based temporal occlusion paradigm
2. Outlook: Can heuristic decision-making predict expertise?
• Option generation: IVwithin-subject factor: time-pressure (7.5 sec.) vs. no time-pressure (30 sec.)
To address this issue relevant for talent development in sport, the TTF provides a theoretical base for studying predecisional option generation processes as well as decision-making of youth athletes (Marasso et al., 2014). The TTF states that options are generated sequentially in order of validity leading to the first, intuitive option to be of highest quality and should therefore be selected. Therefore, we apply the simple heuristics in sports approach (Raab, 2012) and combine it with a developmental perspective for predicting future expertise (DeOliveira et al., 2014).
Youth soccer players… Hyp 1. …will generate less options with time-pressure than without time-pressure.
• Option selection: Best option
Hyp 2. …will select the first option as their best option more frequently with time-pressure than without time-pressure.
• Option evaluation: Decision confidence Motor confidence
By focusing on youth soccer players’ pre-decisional processes and realizing a longitudinal design we bridge two research gaps identified. At the first measurement point (t1) we tested whether the Take-the-First heuristic holds for the option generation process of youth soccer players in a real-world, time-pressured soccer-task (Hyp 1 – 3).
Longitudinal cohort study with a professional youth soccer academy • IVbetween-subject factor: U8-U14 teams • IVwithin-subject factor: time t1-t4 with a six months interval t1 – August 2015 U9
Hyp 3. …will be more inconsistent the more options they generate.
Measures
Method: Design
U8
Hypotheses (t1):
U10
t1 – t4: Option-generation paradigm • DV: Number of options • DV: Dynamic inconsitencies
t2 – February 2016 U11
U12
U13
U14
t1 Sample of players n1 = 97
Aget1: M = 10.52 (SD = 1.99) years Soccer experiencet1: M = 6.15 (SD = 2.26) years
U8
U9
U10
Expertise • t1: coaches‘ evaluation of players as high potentials
t3 – August 2016 U11
U12
U13
U14
U8
U9
U10
t4 – February 2017 U11
U12
U13
U14
U8
U9
U10
U11
U12
U13
U14
t2 Sample of players n2 = 101
Aget2: M = 11.18 (SD = 2.02) years Soccer experiencet2: M = 6.74 (SD = 2.29) years
Results t1
Results t1+ t2
Discussion and outlook
With time pressure compared to no time-pressure… Hyp 1 …players generated less options
How does heuristic decision-making develop?
Elite youth soccer players generate options according to the TTF • Elite youth soccer player show dynamic inconsistent decision-making behavior, stronger with time-pressure • Age related differences regarding dynamic inconsistency rates Decision making processes are influenced by developmental changes
Ft1(1,95) = 8.513, p = .004, part. Eta² = .08
Hyp 2 …players selected their first option to be the best more freuquently 77.8 % vs. 71.1 %, χ² (1, N = 97) = 11.60, p = .001
Dynamic inconsistent decision-making behavior… Hyp 3 …was predicted by the total numbers of options generated in the time-pressure, β = .58, R² = .33, as well as in the no time-pressure condition β = .45, R² = .19.
4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 all players
U8
U9
U10
U11
U12
U13
U14
0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 all players t1 with pressure
U8
U9
t1 without pressure
U10
U11
U12
t2 with time-pressure
U13
U14
Implications for an age-related decision making training • Train players to select first, intuitive option, especially when under time-pressure • Train decision-making with high environmental demands, e.g. time-pressure • Sensitive phases for cognitively oriented decision making training? Outlook: Can heuristic decision-making predict expertise? Positive relation of coaches‘ evaluation of players to TTF heuristic • Less dynamic inconsitent decision-making behavior of players at t2 (dynamic inconsistency changes t2-t1) was related to a positive evaluation of players as high potentials, r = -.289**
t2 without time-pressure
References. Baker, J., Cotè, J., & Abernethy, B. (2003). Sport-specific practice and the development of expert decision-making in team ball sports. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 5, 12–25. doi:10.1080/10413200305400. Belling, P. K., Suss, J., & Ward, P. (2015). Advancing theory and application of cognitive research in sport: Using representative tasks to explain and predict skilled anticipation, decision-making, and option-generation behavior. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 16, 45–59. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2014.08.001. De Oliveira, R., Lobinger, B. H., & Raab, M. (2014). An adaptive toolbox approach to the route to expertise in sport. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, 2–4. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00709. Johnson, J. G., & Raab, M. (2003). Take the first: Option-generation and resulting choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 215-229. Marasso, D., Laborde, S., Bardaglio, G., & Raab (2014). A developmental perspective on decision-making in sports. International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 7, 1–23. doi:10.1080/1750984X.2014.932424. Poulton, E. C. (1957). On prediction in skilled movements. Psychological Bulletin, 54, 467–478. doi:10.1037/h0045515. Raab, M. (2012). Simple heuristics in sports. International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 5, 104–120. doi: 10.1080/1750984X.2012.654810. Raab, M., & Johnson, J. (2007). Expertise-based differences in search and option-generation strategies. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 13, 158–170. doi: 10.1037/1076-898X.13.3.158
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