along an average transect could be described by a Poisson distribution with mean and ..... Another cost of host feeding is an increased handling time, which ...... parameter λ, and modelled the (random) effects of three spatial scales of ...... per leaflet. (b1). 0. 0.2. 0.4. 0.6. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50 distance interval h (m) se m iva ria.
+RZWREHKDYH" (YROXWLRQRIKRVWKDQGOLQJEHKDYLRXULQ WKHZKLWHIO\SDUDVLWRLG(QFDUVLDIRUPRVD
3URPRWRUHQ 3URIGU-&YDQ/HQWHUHQ +RRJOHUDDULQGHHQWRPRORJLH 3URIGU/(09HW +RRJOHUDDULQGHHYROXWLRQDLUHHFRORJLH &RSURPRWRU 'U/+HPHULN 8QLYHUVLWDLUGRFHQWELMGHOHHUVWRHOJURHSZLVNXQGLJHHQVWDWLVWLVFKHPHWKRGHQHQ PHGHZHUNHUELM%LRPHWULV 2YHULJHOHGHQSURPRWLHFRPPLVVLH 3URIGU*(+HLPSHO8QLYHUVLW\RI0LQQHVRWD86$ 3URIGU/:%HXNHERRP5LMNVXQLYHUVLWHLW*URQLQJHQ 'U3+DFFRX8QLYHUVLWHLW/HLGHQ 3URIGU0'LFNH:DJHQLQJHQ8QLYHUVLWHLW
-06%XUJHU
+RZWREHKDYH" (YROXWLRQRIKRVWKDQGOLQJEHKDYLRXULQ WKHZKLWHIO\SDUDVLWRLG(QFDUVLDIRUPRVD
3URHIVFKULIW
WHUYHUNULMJLQJYDQGHJUDDGYDQGRFWRU RSJH]DJYDQGHUHFWRUPDJQLILFXV YDQ:DJHQLQJHQ8QLYHUVLWHLW 3URIGULU/6SHHOPDQ LQKHWRSHQEDDUWHYHUGHGLJHQ RSGLQVGDJGHFHPEHU GHVQDPLGGDJVRPYLHUXXULQGH$XOD
%XUJHU -06 +RZ WR EHKDYH" (YROXWLRQ RI KRVWKDQGOLQJ EHKDYLRXU LQ WKH ZKLWHIO\ SDUDVLWRLG (QFDUVLD IRUPRVD 'RFWRUDO WKHVLV /DERUDWRU\ RI (QWRPRORJ\ :DJHQLQJHQ8QLYHUVLW\32%R[(+:DJHQLQJHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
,6%1
9RRU³GHZLOGHVSLQQHQ´
&RQWHQWV
$EVWUDFW
&KDSWHU
*HQHUDOLQWURGXFWLRQ
&KDSWHU
+RVW IHHGLQJ LQ LQVHFW SDUDVLWRLGV ZK\ GHVWUXFWLYHO\ IHHG XSRQDKRVWWKDWH[FUHWHVDQDOWHUQDWLYH" -06%XUJHU705HLMQHQ-&YDQ/HQWHUHQ /(09HW
&KDSWHU
$Q HYROXWLRQDU\ DGYDQWDJH RI GHVWUXFWLYH KRVW IHHGLQJ RYHU QRQGHVWUXFWLYHIHHGLQJRQKRQH\GHZ -06%XUJHU$.RUPDQ\-&YDQ/HQWHUHQ /(09HW
&KDSWHU
1DWXUDO KLVWRU\ RI ZKLWHIO\ LQ &RVWD 5LFD DQ HYROXWLRQDU\ VWDUWLQJSRLQW -06%XUJHU**RUW-&YDQ/HQWHUHQ /(09HW
&KDSWHU
5HSURGXFWLRQ QRZ RU LQ WKH IXWXUH RSWLPDO KRVWKDQGOLQJ VWUDWHJLHVLQWKHZKLWHIO\SDUDVLWRLG(QFDUVLDIRUPRVD -06%XUJHU/+HPHULN-&YDQ/HQWHUHQ /(09HW
&KDSWHU
(IIHFW RI KRVW GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG SDUDVLWRLG H[SHULHQFH RQ IRUDJLQJGHFLVLRQVRI(QFDUVLDIRUPRVD -06 %XUJHU /\FRSHUVLFRQ HVFXOHQWXP 0LOOHU@FY0RQH\PDNHU DQGEHDQSODQWV)DEDFHDH3KDVHROXVYXOJDULV/FY3UHOXGH ZHUH UHDUHG E\ 8QLIDUP :DJHQLQJHQ 85 WKH 1HWKHUODQGV DW q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
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG" 7DEOH 3URFHGXUH RI IHFXQGLW\ H[SHULPHQWV , DQG ,, 6 DG OLELWXP VXFURVH VROXWLRQ ' DG OLELWXP KRQH\GHZ+KRVWIHHGLQJ 'D\
(YHQW
6
6+
6'
6'+
(PHUJLQJ
6
6
6'
6'
$JHLQJ 2YLSRVLWLRQDOORZHGXSWRILUVW+ DWWHPSW 'LVVHFWLRQK, RUK,, DIWHU+DWWHPSW
6 +SUHYHQWHG o6 6
6 +DOORZHG o6 6
6' +SUHYHQWHG o6' 6'
6' +DOORZHG o6' 6'
ZDV FRQWLQXRXVO\ SURYLGHG WR PHHW EDVLF PHWDEROLF UHTXLUHPHQWV VR WKDW RQO\ WKH DGGLWLYH HIIHFWV RI KHPRO\PSK DQG KRQH\GHZ ZHUH VWXGLHG ([SHULPHQWV ZHUH FDUULHG RXWDWq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¶VHJJVWRUDJHFDSDFLW\LQ DJULGRIu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
&KDSWHU
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
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG" 7DEOH3URFHGXUHRIORQJHYLW\H[SHULPHQW6 DGOLELWXPVXFURVHVROXWLRQ' DGOLELWXPKRQH\GHZ+ KRVWIHHGLQJ 'D\
(YHQW
6
6+
6'
6'+
(PHUJLQJ
6
6
6
6
$JHLQJ 2YLSRVLWLRQDOORZHGXSWR ILUVW+DWWHPSW 6XUYLYDO
6 +SUHYHQWHG o6 6
6 +DOORZHG o6 6
6 +SUHYHQWHG o6' 6'
6 +DOORZHG o6' 6'
GHDWK
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¶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
&KDSWHU 7DEOH'HWDLOVRIJHQHUDOLVHGOLQHDUPRGHOVK E; DSSOLHGWRGLIIHUHQWUHVSRQVHYDULDEOHVLQIHFXQGLW\ H[SHULPHQWVHOFRQWUROHJJORDGRIFRQWUROJURXSDWGD\KWOKLQGWLELDOHQJWKPP IRUWIRUDJLQJWLPH XQWLO KRVWIHHGLQJ DWWHPSW K QRY QXPEHU RI RYLSRVLWLRQV XQWLO KRVWIHHGLQJ DWWHPSW HOHQG HVWLPDWHG HJJ ORDG DIWHU REVHUYDWLRQ HOK HJJ ORDG KRXUV DIWHU REVHUYDWLRQ QPDW HVWLPDWHG QXPEHU RI HJJV PDWXUHG RU UHVRUEHG EHWZHHQ HQG RI REVHUYDWLRQ DQG GLVVHFWLRQ HOG HJJ ORDG DW GD\ W WLPH RI GLVVHFWLRQ DW GD\ G SUHVHQFH RI KRQH\GHZ K DOORZDQFH RI RQH KRVW IHHGLQJ KIW KRVWIHHGLQJ WLPH PLQ 5HVSRQVH YDULDEOHP
$VVXPHG GLVWULEXWLRQ
/LQHDU SUHGLFWRUK
3UHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV
,QGLFDWRU YDULDEOHV
&RUUHFWLRQIRU RYHUGLVSHUVLRQ
HOFRQWURO
3RLVVRQ
ORJP
KWOW,,
G
QR, \HV,,
KWO IRUW QRY HOHQG HOK QPDW KIWLIK HOKLIK QPDWLIK HOG
1RUPDO *DPPD 3RLVVRQ 3RLVVRQ 3RLVVRQ 1RUPDO *DPPD 3RLVVRQ 1RUPDO 3RLVVRQ
P P ORJP ORJP ORJP
KIW KIW KWO
GK G G G GK GK G G G G
QR QR \HV \HV QR, \HV,, \HV QR QR, \HV,, \HV \HV
P P ORJP P ORJP
1HWHU HW DO $ PRGHO ZLWK SDUDPHWHU WKH LQWHUFHSW ZDV WHVWHG DJDLQVW DOO SRVVLEOHPRGHOVZLWKSDUDPHWHUV7KHPRGHOWKDW JDYH WKH KLJKHVW WHVW VWDWLVWLF ) RU SDUWLDO GHYLDQFH ZDV WHVWHG DJDLQVW DOO SRVVLEOH PRGHOV ZLWK SDUDPHWHUV LI LWV WHVW VWDWLVWLFH[FHHGHGWKHFULWLFDOYDOXH)QS RUF 7KLVZDVUHSHDWHGXQWLO WKHWHVWVWDWLVWLFEHFDPHVPDOOHUWKDQRUHTXDOWRWKHFULWLFDOYDOXHRUWKHIXOOPRGHOZDV UHDFKHG ,I WKH WHVW VWDWLVWLF EHFDPH VPDOOHU WKDQ RU HTXDO WR WKH FULWLFDO YDOXH WKH VHOHFWHGPRGHOZLWKSSDUDPHWHUVZDVWHVWHGDJDLQVWDOOSRVVLEOHPRGHOVZLWKPRUHWKDQ S SDUDPHWHUV ,I WKLV UHVXOWHG LQ D WHVW VWDWLVWLF ODUJHU WKDQ WKH FULWLFDO YDOXH WKH DQDO\VLVZDVFRQWLQXHGXVLQJWKHEHWWHUPRGHOZLWKPRUHWKDQSSDUDPHWHUV0RGHOV ZLWK LQWHUDFWLRQ WHUPV ZHUH RQO\ FRQVLGHUHG LI DVVRFLDWHG PDLQ HIIHFWV ZHUH DOVR LQFOXGHG /RQJHYLW\H[SHULPHQW 3HUWUHDWPHQWD VXUYLYDO FXUYH ZDV FRQVWUXFWHG IURP ORQJHYLW\ VFRUHV 7KHHIIHFW RI KRVWIHHGLQJRQVXUYLYDOZDVWHVWHGXVLQJ.DSODQ0HLHUVXUYLYDODQDO\VLV6366YHUVLRQ ZKHQKRQH\GHZZDVDEVHQW6 YV 6+ DQG ZKHQ KRQH\GHZ ZDV SUHVHQW 6' YV 6'+ 7KH HIIHFW RI LQGLFDWRU YDULDEOHV KRVW IHHGLQJ K DQG KRQH\GHZ G RQ HJJ ORDGHO DQGKLQGWLELDOHQJWKKWO RIGLHGSDUDVLWRLGVZDVWHVWHGXVLQJJHQHUDOLVHGOLQHDU PRGHOOLQJ VHH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI IHFXQGLW\ H[SHULPHQWV DVVXPHG GLVWULEXWLRQ
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG" 7DEOH5HVXOWVIURPJHQHUDOLVHGOLQHDUPRGHOOLQJDSSOLHGWRUHVSRQVHYDULDEOHVRIIHFXQGLW\H[SHULPHQWV VKRZLQJPRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVPRGHOVDQGGHFLVLYH3YDOXHVIURPSDUWLDO)WHVWVZKHQ1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ DVVXPHG RU SDUWLDO GHYLDQFH WHVWV ZKHQ 3RLVVRQ RU *DPPD GLVWULEXWLRQ DVVXPHG 5HIHU WR KHDGHU RI 7DEOHIRUPHDQLQJRIUHVSRQVHYDULDEOHQDPHV 5HVSRQVH YDULDEOHP
)LUVWIHFXQGLW\H[SHULPHQW
6HFRQGIHFXQGLW\H[SHULPHQW
0RVWSDUVLPRQLRXVPRGHO
3YDOXH
0RVWSDUVLPRQLRXVPRGHO
3YDOXH
HOFRQWURO
ORJP KWO
ORJP ± KWO G
KWO IRUW QRY HOHQG HOK QPDW KIWLIK HOKLIK QPDWLIK HOG
P P ORJP G ORJP ± G ORJP G P ± G P ORJP G P ± G
P P ± G ORJP G ORJP G ORJP G P G P ORJP G P G ORJP ± KWO G
3RLVVRQOLQHDUSUHGLFWRUORJP FRUUHFWLRQIRURYHUGLVSHUVLRQRQO\IRUUHVSRQVHYDULDEOH HJJORDG
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
6
QXP EHURI RYLSRV LWLRQV
IRUDJLQJWLP HKRXUV
G
6
H
6
6'
HV WLP DWHGQXP EHURI HJJV P DWXUHG
HJJORDGKDIWHU REV HUYDWLRQ
J
KRV WIHHGLQJWLP HP LQ
HV WLP DWHGQXP EHURI HJJV P DWXUHG
HJJORDGKDIWHU REV HUYDWLRQ
M
6
K 6
6'
I
6
6'
DGOLELWXP GLHW
6'
L
6
6'
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW
6'
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW
6
DGOLELWXP GLHW
6'
F
DGOLELWXP GLHW
KLQGWLELDOHQJWKP P
6'
KRV WIHHGLQJWLP H P LQ
HV WLP DWHGHJJORDG EHIRUHREV HUYDWLRQ
E
HV WLP DWHGHJJORDG DIWHUREV HUYDWLRQ
D
KLQGWLELDOHQJWKP P
HJJORDGFRQWURO
&KDSWHU
N
KRV WIHHGLQJWLP HP LQ
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
6
QXP EHURI RYLSRV LWLRQV
IRUDJLQJWLP HKRXUV
G
6
6
6'
6'
HV WLP DWHGQXP EHURI HJJV P DWXUHG
HJJORDGKDIWHU REV HUYDWLRQ
J
6
M
KRV WIHHGLQJWLP HP LQ
HV WLP DWHGQXP EHURI HJJV P DWXUHG
HJJORDGKDIWHU REV HUYDWLRQ
6
K 6
6'
I
6
6'
DGOLELWXP GLHW
6'
L
6
6'
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW
6'
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW
DGOLELWXP GLHW H
F
DGOLELWXP GLHW
KLQGWLELDOHQJWKP P
6'
KRV WIHHGLQJWLP H P LQ
HV WLP DWHGHJJORDG EHIRUHREV HUYDWLRQ
E
HV WLP DWHGHJJORDG DIWHUREV HUYDWLRQ
D
KLQGWLELDOHQJWKP P
HJJORDGFRQWURO
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG"
N
KRV WIHHGLQJWLP HP LQ
)LJ 5HVXOWV IURP VHFRQG IHFXQGLW\ H[SHULPHQW D (IIHFW RI KLQG WLELD OHQJWK RQ HJJ ORDG RI FRQWURO SDUDVLWRLGVDWFLUFOHVQ6 Q6' DQGWULDQJOHVQ6 Q6' RIGD\ZKHQKRQH\GHZ KDGEHHQDEVHQWRSHQV\PEROVGRWWHGOLQH RUSUHVHQWFORVHGV\PEROVVROLGOLQH LQDGGLWLRQWRVXFURVH VROXWLRQ0HDQVGRIE KLQGWLELDOHQJWKF HVWLPDWHGHJJORDGEHIRUHREVHUYDWLRQG IRUDJLQJWLPH XQWLO KRVWIHHGLQJ DWWHPSW H QXPEHU RI RYLSRVLWLRQV XQWLO KRVWIHHGLQJ DWWHPSW I HVWLPDWHG HJJ ORDG DIWHUREVHUYDWLRQJ HJJORDGKDIWHUREVHUYDWLRQK HVWLPDWHGQXPEHURIHJJVPDWXUHGZLWKLQK L KRVWIHHGLQJWLPHZKHQKRQH\GHZZDVDEVHQW6 RUSUHVHQW6' LQDGGLWLRQWRVXFURVHVROXWLRQDQG ZKHQKRVWIHHGLQJZDVVWLOODKHDGGDUNJUH\EDUVQ6 Q6' SUHYHQWHGOLJKWJUH\EDUVQ6 Q6' RUDOORZHGEODFNEDUVQ6+ Q6'+ (IIHFWRIKRVWIHHGLQJWLPHRQM HJJORDGK DIWHUREVHUYDWLRQDQGN HVWLPDWHGQXPEHURIHJJVPDWXUHGZLWKLQKZKHQKRQH\GHZKDGEHHQDEVHQW RSHQFLUFOHVGRWWHGOLQH RUSUHVHQWFORVHGFLUFOHVVROLGOLQH LQDGGLWLRQWRVXFURVHVROXWLRQ
&KDSWHU
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
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG"
,IDOORZHGSDUDVLWRLGVDGGLWLRQDOO\VXSSOLHGZLWKKRQH\GHZGLGQRWIHHGVLJQLILFDQWO\ VKRUWHUXSRQWKHKRVWrPLQ WKDQKRQH\GHZGHSULYHGSDUDVLWRLGVr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³VORZ´ SDUDVLWRLGV ZHUH LQFOXGHG7KHQXPEHURISDUDVLWRLGVWKDWGLGQRWDWWHPSWKRVWIHHGLQJGXULQJWKHVHFRQG H[SHULPHQWDQGWKHUHIRUHH[FOXGHGIURPWKHDQDO\VLVZDV6 6+ 6' DQG
D
HJJORDG
6' 6
SDUDVLWRLGDJHGD\V E
HJJORDG
6' 6
KLQGWLELDOHQJWKPP )LJD (JJ ORDGG\QDPLFV PHDQ r VG RI SDUDVLWRLGV WKDW KDG DFFHVV WR VXFURVH VROXWLRQ RQO\ RSHQ FLUFOHV Q DQG ZLWK DGGLWLRQDO DFFHVV WR KRQH\GHZ FORVHG FLUFOHV Q E (JJ ORDG RI GD\VROG SDUDVLWRLGV WKDW KDG DFFHVV WR VXFURVHVROXWLRQRQO\ RSHQ FLUFOHVGRWWHG OLQH DQGZLWK DGGLWLRQDO DFFHVV WRKRQH\GHZ FORVHGFLUFOHV VROLGOLQH FRUUHFWHGIRUKLQGWLELDOHQJWK
&KDSWHU
IUDFWLRQVXUYLYDO
6'+ 7KHVHGLVFDUGHGSDUDVLWRLGVZHUHREVHUYHGIRUr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
D
6+
6
IUDFWLRQVXUYLYDO
SDUDVLWRLGDJHGD\V E
6' +
6'
SDUDVLWRLGDJHGD\V )LJ6XUYLYDOFXUYHVRISDUDVLWRLGVD ZKHQRQO\VXFURVHVROXWLRQZDVVXSSOLHGFLUFOHV Q6 Q6+ DQG E ZKHQ LQ DGGLWLRQ WR VXFURVH VROXWLRQ KRQH\GHZ ZDV SUHVHQW IURP WKH KRVWIHHGLQJ DWWHPSW RQZDUGVWULDQJOHVQ6' Q6'+ $WGD\SDUDVLWRLGVZHUHDOORZHGWRRYLSRVLWXQWLOKRVWIHHGLQJ ZDVDWWHPSWHG+RVWIHHGLQJZDVSUHYHQWHGRSHQV\PEROV RUDOORZHGFORVHGV\PEROV
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG" 7DEOH0HDQrVGRIDQGUHVXOWVIURPJHQHUDOLVHGOLQHDUPRGHOOLQJDSSOLHGWRHJJORDG HO DQGKLQGWLELD OHQJWK KWO DW GHDWK RI SDUDVLWRLGV LQ ORQJHYLW\ H[SHULPHQW VKRZLQJ PRVW SDUVLPRQLRXV PRGHOV DQG GHFLVLYH 3YDOXHV IURP SDUWLDO ) WHVWV QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ DVVXPHG IRU KWO RU SDUWLDO GHYLDQFH WHVWV 3RLVVRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ DVVXPHG IRU HO 6 DG OLELWXP VXFURVH VROXWLRQ ' DG OLELWXP KRQH\GHZ + KRVW IHHGLQJDOORZHG P
0HDQrVG
0RVWSDUVLPRQLRXV PRGHO
3YDOXH
6Q
6+Q
6'Q
6'+Q
HO
r
r
r
r
ORJP ± G± K PLQGK
KWO
r
r
r
r
P
/RQJHYLW\H[SHULPHQW 3DUDVLWRLGV DOORZHG WR KRVW IHHG KDG D KLJKHU OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ WKDQ SDUDVLWRLGV SUHYHQWHGIURPKRVWIHHGLQJZKHQRQO\VXFURVHVROXWLRQZDVVXSSOLHGORJUDQNVWDWLVWLF 3 )LJD 7KHLQFUHPHQWDOHIIHFWRIWKHKRVWIHHGLQJLQFUHDVHGZLWK SDUDVLWRLG¶VDJH+RZHYHUZKHQSDUDVLWRLGVKDGDGGLWLRQDODFFHVVWRKRQH\GHZDIWHUWKH REVHUYDWLRQKRVWIHHGLQJGLGQRWLQFUHDVHOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ORJUDQNVWDWLVWLF 3 )LJE 'XULQJ WKH REVHUYDWLRQ RQ GD\ PRVW SDUDVLWRLGV LPPHGLDWHO\ DWWHPSWHG KRVW IHHGLQJZLWKRXWRYLSRVLWLQJPHDQrVGRIQXPEHURIRYLSRVLWLRQVr>Q @ ,IDOORZHGSDUDVLWRLGVKRVWIHGRQDYHUDJHrQ PLQXWHV1RFHQVRUHG GDWD RFFXUUHG LH DOO SDUDVLWRLGV ZHUH REVHUYHG XQWLO GHDWK 7KH DYHUDJH HJJ ORDG DW GHDWKZDVXVXDOO\OHVVWKDQ7DEOH H[FHSWIRUSDUDVLWRLGVLQWKH6'WUHDWPHQWZKHUH LW ZDV RQ DYHUDJH DERXW 3 7DEOH +LQG WLELD OHQJWK GLG QRW GLIIHU VLJQLILFDQWO\EHWZHHQWUHDWPHQWV3 7DEOH
'LVFXVVLRQ 7KH ZKLWHIO\ SDUDVLWRLG (QFDUVLD IRUPRVD KDV EHHQ FKDUDFWHULVHG DV RQH RI WKH ³FRQIXVLQJ H[FHSWLRQV´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
&KDSWHU
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¶VLPPXQHV\VWHP3ULFH ,Q HFWRSDUDVLWRLGV WKH GHYHORSLQJ SDUDVLWRLG RQO\ VWDUWV IHHGLQJ IURP WKH KRVW DIWHU WKH SDUDVLWRLG¶VHJJKDVKDWFKHG7KHPRWKHUVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHSURYLGHDOOQXWULHQWVQHFHVVDU\ IRU HJJ GHYHORSPHQW 7R PHHW WKH KLJK QXWULHQW GHPDQG IRU RRJHQHVLV DQG WR SURGXFH ODUJHVRFDOOHGDQK\GURSLFHJJVWKDWFRQWDLQSURWHLQLQFOXVLRQVWKHDGXOWIHPDOHXVXDOO\ QHHGVWRKRVWIHHG-HUYLV .LGG/H5DOHF-HUYLVHWDO 2QFHLQWHUQDO RYLSRVLWLRQKDGHYROYHGDEVRUSWLRQRIKRVWQXWULHQWVE\WKHSDUDVLWRLG¶VHJJDOORZHGIRU HPEU\RJHQHVLV DIWHU RYLSRVLWLRQ 6RFDOOHG K\GURSLF HJJV FDQ VZHOO KXQGUHGV RU HYHQ WKRXVDQGV RI WLPHV LQ YROXPH EHWZHHQ RYLSRVLWLRQ DQG KDWFKLQJ HJ *ROGVRQ HW DO 7KLVXSWDNHRIKRVWUHVRXUFHVE\WKHHJJVWDJHSRVVLEO\UHGXFHVWKHQHHGRIWKH DGXOW IHPDOH WR GHVWUXFWLYHO\ KRVW IHHG ,QGHHG VSHFLHV ZLWK K\GURSLF HJJV QHYHU KRVW IHHG -HUYLV .LGG 4XLFNH )XUWKHUPRUH K\GURSLF HJJVFDQ EH VWRUHG LQ KLJKHUQXPEHUVDQGIRUORQJHUSHULRGVWKDQDQK\GURSLFHJJV-HUYLV .LGG-HUYLV HW DO DQG FDQ EH ODLG LQ OHVV WKDQ D VHFRQG HJ 9|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¶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
:K\GHVWUXFWLYHO\KRVWIHHG"
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lFNHUV =RHEHOHLQ RUUDIILQRVH:lFNHUV +RZHYHU LQ WKH KRQH\GHZ RI WKH VLOYHUOHDI ZKLWHIO\ %HPLVLD DUJHQWLIROLL WKH PRVW DEXQGDQW VXJDU LV WKH XQXVXDO GLVDFFKDULGH WUHKDOXORVH %\UQH 0LOOHU 7DUF]\QVNL %\UQH 0LOOHU +HQGUL[ :HL /HJJHWW +HQGUL[ :HL L
\ [ L \ [ L K
@
ZKHUH QK LV WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI SDLUV WKDW DUH VHSDUDWHG E\ GLVWDQFH LQWHUYDO K DQG \[LK LVWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVRQDOHDIOHW,73DQGXQGHILQHGRQ
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD
XSSHU DQG ORZHU VLGH DW D GLVWDQFH LQWHUYDO K IURP ORFDWLRQ [L 6TXDUHURRW WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ ZDV DSSOLHG RQ QXPEHUV WR PHHW WKH QRUPDOLW\ DVVXPSWLRQ 6RNDO 5RKOI )RUWKHWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOSORWVWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWZROHDYHVDQG ZLWKFRRUGLQDWHVDEF DQGDEF HTXDOVWKHVTXDUHURRWRID±D E±E F±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
(^J ` & & K IRU K !
6SKHULFDOPRGHO (^J `
º ª °°& & « K §¨ K ·¸ » IRU K d $ ® « $ ¨© $ ¸¹ » ¬ ¼ ° IRU K ! $ ¯°& &
([SRQHQWLDOPRGHO ª § K ·º ¸¸» IRU K ! (^J ` & & « H[S¨¨ © $ ¹»¼ ¬«
*DXVVLDQPRGHO ª § K ·º (^J ` & & « H[S¨ ¸» IRU K ! ¨ $ ¸» «¬ ¹¼ ©
2QO\IRUWKHWUDQVHFWGDWD6WHLQ ZHDOVRWHVWHGDOLQHDUPRGHOZLWKDVLOO & °& K IRU K d $ (^J ` ® $ °¯& & IRU K ! $
)RU 6DQWD 5RVD DQG %RUXFD ZH DOVR WHVWHG D QHVWHG *DXVVLDQ PRGHO 5LHWNHUN HW DO (^J `
·º ª § °& & « H[S¨ K ¸» ¨ $ ¸» °° «¬ ¹¼ © ® ª § K T ° ¨ °& & & « H[S¨ «¬ $ °¯ ©
IRU K d T ·º ¸» IRU K ! T ¸» ¹¼
&KDSWHU
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
5HVXOWV *HQHUDO 7DEOH VXPPDULVHV IRU DOO WKH GLIIHUHQW VDPSOLQJ VLWHV DQG PHWKRGV WKH PHDQ DQG PD[LPXPQXPEHURIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVSHUOHDIOHWWKHDJJUHJDWLRQLQGH[WKHIUDFWLRQRI OHDIOHWVZLWKQRZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVWKHIUDFWLRQRIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVRQWKHORZHUOHDIVLGH WKH IUDFWLRQ RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV LQ D GHYHORSLQJ VWDJH WKH SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH WKH IUDFWLRQ RI YDFDWHG SXSDULD SDUDVLWLVHG DQG WKH PHDQ r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r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
7DEOH2FFXUUHQFHRIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVRQOHDIOHWVFROOHFWHGDWGLIIHUHQWVLWHVLQ&RVWD5LFDXVLQJGLIIHUHQWPHWKRGV IUDFWLRQ IUDFWLRQ IUDFWLRQ IUDFWLRQ IUDFWLRQ IUDFWLRQ IUDFWLRQ PHDQ 82E IUDFWLRQ PD[ 0HWKRG Q\PSKV RQORZHU ,F RI RI, RI, RI, RI, SDUDVLWLVHG 6LWH OHDIOHWV Q\PSKV D SHU OHDIOHWV SHU VLGH LQVW LQQG LQUG LQWK YDFDWHG G OHDIOHW HPSW\ OHDIOHW VWDJH VWDJH VWDJH VWDJH /RQJWUDQVHFWV &DUDUD 7DSDQWt 6DQWD5RVD 3RROHG 6KRUWWUDQVHFWV -XDQ&DVWUR%ODQFR &DKXLWD, &DKXLWD,, 'SORWV (O6XU (O5RGHR 6DQWD5RVD /RV$OSHV %UDXOLR&DUULOOR 2URWLQD %RUXFD )RUHVWIORRUYVFDQRS\ 6DQWD(OHQD)RUHVW5HVHUYH 6DQWD(OHQD³VN\ZDON´ D 1RWDOZD\VDOOOHDYHVFROOHFWHGFRXOGEHFKHFNHGEHFDXVHRIGDPDJHORVVRUORJLVWLFDOVHWEDFN/HDIOHWVRIFRPSRXQGOHDYHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGVHSDUDWHO\ E $JJUHJDWLRQLQGH[IRUQXPEHURIQ\PSKVSHUOHDIOHW82UHJXODUGLVWULEXWLRQ82 UDQGRPGLVWULEXWLRQ82!DJJUHJDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQ F 2QO\LQVWDUWRDYDLODEOHWRSDUDVLWRLGIRUKRVWIHHGLQJRURYLSRVLWLRQ G %DVHGRQVKDSHRIRSHQLQJLQYDFDWHGSXSDULD7VKDSHGZKHQDGXOWZKLWHIO\HPHUJHGURXQGKROHZKHQDGXOWSDUDVLWRLGHPHUJHG H 2QO\LQIHVWHGOHDYHVZHUHPHDVXUHG
H H
H H H H
H H H
HH HH H H
0HDQHVGRI VLGHGOHDI DUHDFP
&KDSWHU
7KH QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDIOHW LQ WKH WURSLFDO GU\ IRUHVW RI 6DQWD 5RVD ZDV RQO\ DERXW KDOI WKH QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDIOHW LQ WKH WURSLFDO SUHPRQWDQHZHWIRUHVWRI7DSDQWt,Q6DQWD5RVDKRZHYHUPHDQOHDIOHWDUHDZDVDERXW KDOIWKHPHDQOHDIOHWDUHDLQ7DSDQWt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³VN\ ZDON´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tUHYHDOHGVSHFLPHQVRIDSUREDEO\XQGHVFULEHGJHQXVVHYHUDOVSHFLPHQVRID SUREDEO\XQGHVFULEHG7HWUDOHXURGHVVSHFLHVSUREDEO\7HWUDOHXURGHVPRUL%HPLVLD WDEDFL UHODWHG WR %HPLVLD DIHU 'LDOHXURGHV VS SUREDEO\ $OHXURSODWXV GHQWLFXWDWXV VRPH $OHXURGR[XV SRVVLEO\ UKRGDH VRPH $OHXURSODWXV VS $OHXURWUDFKHOXVVS7HWUDOLFLDVS$OHXURSOHXURFHOXVVSDQG$OHXURWXOXVVS%LQN 0RHQHQSHUVFRPP (IIHFWRIVDPSOLQJVFDOHRQZKLWHIO\RFFXUUHQFH 7DEOHVKRZVWKHUHVXOWVIURPPRGHOOLQJWKHHIIHFWVRIVDPSOLQJVFDOHRQWKHQXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ KRVWV , RQ WKH ORZHU VLGH RI D OHDIOHW WKH SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH DQG WKH GHJUHH RI SDUDVLWLVP IRU WKH ³ORQJ WUDQVHFW´ GDWD 0RGHOV GHVFULEH WKH GDWD UHDVRQDEO\ ZHOOEHFDXVHWKHH[WUDGLVSHUVLRQVFDOHVDUHFORVHWRXQLW\VPLQ7DEOHZRXOGEHWKH
Za3RLVVRQO
ORJO ±
$VVXPHGGLVWULEXWLRQ
/LQHDUSUHGLFWRUKLMN ,QWHUFHSW 8WVFW 8VSRW 8SODQW ([WUDGLVSHUVLRQVFDOH 3RSXODWLRQPHDQ
ZKLWHIOLHVLQ, VWDJHZ ORJLWS ±
Ja%LQQS
6WDJHRI,J
ORJLWS ±
Ja%LQQS
6WDJHRI,J
ORJLWS ±
Ja%LQQS
6WDJHRI,J
ORJLWS ±
Ya%LQQS
6WDWHRIYDFDWHGSXSDULXPY
7DEOH(IIHFWVRIVDPSOLQJVFDOHRQWKHQXPEHURIZKLWHIO\KRVWVSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHDQGGHJUHHRISDUDVLWLVPRQWKHORZHUVLGHRIOHDIOHWVFROOHFWHGDORQJWKH ³ORQJWUDQVHFWV´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
&KDSWHU
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³VN\ZDON´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±S S ±S ±S ±S ±S ±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
7DEOH(IIHFWRIOHDIDUHDDLQFP RQSDUDPHWHUHVWLPDWHVRIJHQHUDOLVHGOLQHDUPRGHOGHVFULELQJWKH QXPEHURIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVRQWKHORZHUVLGHRIDOHDIOHW/HDIOHWVZHUHFROOHFWHGLQDORQJWKH³ORQJ WUDQVHFW´LQ6DQWD5RVD7KHQXPEHURIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVZDVDVVXPHG3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWHGZLWKPHDQDQG YDULDQFHHTXDOWRO7KHHIIHFWRIWKHLWKUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGSODQWZDVLQFRUSRUDWHGDV SODQWLDQGDVVXPHG LQGHSHQGHQW1VSODQW $SURSRUWLRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSZDVDVVXPHGEHWZHHQDQG ODQGD([WUDGLVSHUVLRQ VFDOH VKRZV UDWLR RI GDWD YDULDQFH WR PRGHO YDULDQFH 3RSXODWLRQ PHDQ VKRZV O IRU DQ DYHUDJH SODQW SODQWL ZKHQOHDIDUHDLVLJQRUHGHLQWHUFHSW RULQFOXGHGD HLQWHUFHSW 0RGHO ,QWHUFHSW VSODQW ([WUDGLVSHUVLRQVFDOH 3RSXODWLRQPHDQ
/HDIDUHDLJQRUHG
/HDIDUHDLQFOXGHG
ORJO LQWHUFHSWSODQWL ±
ORJO LQWHUFHSWSODQWLORJD ± D
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD
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
D
D
VHPLYDULDQFH
QXPEHURIQ\PSKVSHU OHDIOHW
&KDSWHU
E
F
F
VHPLYDULDQFH
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK P
GLVWDQFHDORQJWUDQVHFWP QXPEHURIQ\PSKVSHU OHDIOHW
VHPLYDULDQFH
QXPEHURIQ\PSKVSHU OHDIOHW
E
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK P
GLVWDQFHDORQJWUDQVHFWP
GLVWDQFHDORQJWUDQVHFWP
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK P
)LJ:KLWHIO\GLVWULEXWLRQDORQJWKHVKRUW WUDQVHFWVVDPSOHGLQ$SULO/HIWSDQHOVWRWDO QXPEHURI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDIOHW DJDLQVW GLVWDQFH DORQJ WUDQVHFW P 5LJKW SDQHOV VHPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDIOHW DJDLQVW GLVWDQFH LQWHUYDOEHWZHHQOHDIOHWVD -XDQ&DVWUR%ODQFR1DWLRQDO3DUNPRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVOLQHDU PRGHOGLGQRW SHUIRUPVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHUWKDQWKHUDQGRPPRGHO5 3 E &DKXLWD1DWLRQDO3DUN, PRVW SDUVLPRQLRXV OLQHDU PRGHO 5 3 (^J` K F &DKXLWD 1DWLRQDO3DUN,,PRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVOLQHDU PRGHOGLGQRWSHUIRUPVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHUWKDQWKHUDQGRP PRGHO5 3
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD D
E
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP F
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
G
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK FP
)LJ :KLWHIO\ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ D 3LSHU VS 3LSHUDFHDH VDPSOHG DW (O 6XU 0D\ DF 7ZRGLPHQVLRQDO SURMHFWLRQV VKRZLQJ SRVLWLRQ RI OHDI FHQWUH EODFN GRW DQG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV RQ WKDW OHDI EXEEOH DUHD %XEEOH VL]H ZDV VFDOHG WR WR LQFUHDVH UHDGDELOLW\ G 6HPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDIDJDLQVWWKHGLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOEHWZHHQOHDYHVPRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVH[SRQHQWLDO PRGHO 5 3 (^J` >±H[S±K @UDQJHGHILQHGE\ $|FP
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
&KDSWHU
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
E
D
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP F
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
G
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK FP
)LJ:KLWHIO\GLVWULEXWLRQZLWKLQDQ (VWHUDVXVVS$VWHUDFHDH VDPSOHGDW(O5RGHR3URWHFWHG$UHD -XQH DF 7ZRGLPHQVLRQDO SURMHFWLRQV VKRZLQJ SRVLWLRQ RI OHDI FHQWUH EODFN GRW DQG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV RQ WKDW OHDI EXEEOH DUHD %XEEOH VL]H ZDV VFDOHG WR WR LQFUHDVH UHDGDELOLW\ G 6HPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVSHUOHDIDJDLQVWWKHGLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOEHWZHHQOHDYHVPRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVOLQHDU PRGHO GLGQRWSHUIRUPVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHUWKDQWKHUDQGRPPRGHO5 3!
EHFDXVH WKHUH LV QR VHOHFWLRQ SUHVVXUH RQ WKH SODQW WR FKHPLFDOO\ KLGH IURP DQ LQVHFW SDUDVLWRLG 9HW HW DO 9HW 'LFNH 2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ DWWUDFWLRQ RI QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RI WKH SODQW¶V QDWXUDO HQHPLHV WKURXJK HPLVVLRQ RI KHUELYRUHVSHFLILF SODQW RGRXUV PD\ HQKDQFH SODQW ILWQHVV DQG WKXV VHUYH DV DQ LQGLUHFW GHIHQFH PHFKDQLVP 'LFNH YDQ/RRQ (IRUPRVDRQ WKH RWKHU KDQG VHHPV XQDEOH WR GLVWLQJXLVK ZKLWHIO\LQIHVWHG IURP XQLQIHVWHG SODQWV RU OHDYHV EHIRUH ODQGLQJ 1ROGXV YDQ /HQWHUHQ 6WWHUOLQ YDQ /HQWHUHQ $IWHU ODQGLQJ LW DOVR GRHV QRW GHWHFW KRVWVIURPDVKRUWGLVWDQFHYDQ5RHUPXQG YDQ/HQWHUHQDYDQ/HQWHUHQHWDO D 5RPHLV =HELW] VKRZHG WKDW ( IRUPRVD LV RQO\ DWWUDFWHG YLVXDOO\ WR
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD
D
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
E
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP F
G
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK FP
)LJ:KLWHIO\GLVWULEXWLRQZLWKLQD&URWRQQLYHXV(XSKRUELDFHDH VDPSOHGDW6DQWD5RVD1DWLRQDO3DUN -XO\DF 7ZRGLPHQVLRQDOSURMHFWLRQVVKRZLQJSRVLWLRQRIOHDIFHQWUHEODFNGRW DQGWRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV RQ WKDW OHDI EXEEOH DUHD %XEEOH VL]H ZDV VFDOHG WR WR LQFUHDVH UHDGDELOLW\ G 6HPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDI DJDLQVW WKH GLVWDQFH LQWHUYDO EHWZHHQ OHDYHV PRVW SDUVLPRQLRXV QHVWHG *DXVVLDQ PRGHO5 3 (^J` ^±H[S>±K @`IRUKdFPDQG (^J` ±H[S^±>K± @` IRUK!FPUDQJHVGHILQHGE\ $|FP ILUVWVHPLYDULRJUDP DQG $|FPVHFRQGVHPLYDULRJUDP
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
&KDSWHU
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
E
D
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP F
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
G
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK FP
)LJ :KLWHIO\ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ DQ XQLGHQWLILHG SODQW VSHFLHV VDPSOHG DW /RV $OSHV 5HIXJH 0D\ DF 7ZRGLPHQVLRQDOSURMHFWLRQVVKRZLQJSRVLWLRQRIOHDIFHQWUHEODFNGRW DQGWRWDOQXPEHURI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV RQ WKDW OHDI EXEEOH DUHD %XEEOH VL]H ZDV VFDOHG WR WR LQFUHDVH UHDGDELOLW\ G 6HPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDIDJDLQVWWKHGLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOEHWZHHQOHDYHVPRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVH[SRQHQWLDO PRGHO 5 3 (^J` >±H[S±K @ UDQJH GHILQHG E\ $ | FP 7KH VSKHULFDO PRGHO SHUIRUPHGHTXDOO\ZHOO5 3 EXW&&& ZDVVPDOOHU
DYHUDJH VSRW RI DQ DYHUDJH WUDQVHFW WKH QXPEHU RI KRVWV RQ WKH ORZHU VLGH ZRXOG EH 3RLVVRQ GLVWULEXWHG ZLWK PHDQ DQG YDULDQFH HTXDO WR LQ D UDWLR RI ,,,, 7KHLQFUHDVHLQIUHTXHQF\ZLWKPRXOWLQJVWDJHFRXOGEHH[SODLQHG E\DQLQFUHDVHLQGHWHFWDELOLW\WRWKHREVHUYHUZLWKPRXOWLQJVWDJH$QRWKHUH[SODQDWLRQ FRXOGEHWKDWWKHZKLWHIO\SRSXODWLRQGHFUHDVHVLQWKHZHWVHDVRQ7KHVLPXODWHGQXPEHU RI KRVWV RQ D OHDIOHW WKDW D SDUDVLWRLG HQFRXQWHUV QH[W GHSHQGV RQ LWV IRUDJLQJ DQG GLVSHUVDOEHKDYLRXU2QHVLPXODWHVWKDWWKHSDUDVLWRLGV³KRSV´WRDQRWKHUOHDIOHWZLWKLQ WKH VDPH SODQW E\ GUDZLQJ IURP WKH 3RLVVRQ DQG ELQRPLDO GLVWULEXWLRQV ZLWK WKH VDPH SDUDPHWHUV2QHVLPXODWHVWKDWWKHSDUDVLWRLGVIOLHVWRDQRWKHUSODQWE\GUDZLQJIURPWKH
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
E
D
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP F
G
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOKFP
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
&KDSWHU D
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
E
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP F
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
G
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOKFP
)LJ:KLWHIO\GLVWULEXWLRQZLWKLQD3LSHUVS3LSHUDFHDH VDPSOHGDW2URWLQD0D\DF 7ZR GLPHQVLRQDOSURMHFWLRQVVKRZLQJSRVLWLRQRIOHDIFHQWUHEODFNGRW DQGWRWDOQXPEHURIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKV RQ WKDW OHDI EXEEOH DUHD %XEEOH VL]H ZDV VFDOHG WR WR LQFUHDVH UHDGDELOLW\ G 6HPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDI DJDLQVW WKH GLVWDQFH LQWHUYDO EHWZHHQ OHDYHV PRVW SDUVLPRQLRXV OLQHDU PRGHO GLG QRW SHUIRUP VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU WKDQWKHUDQGRPPRGHO5 3
VHDUFKLQJWLPHWKDWSDUDVLWRLGZDONVDFWLYHO\DQGGHQVWKHKRVWGHQVLW\YDQ5RHUPXQGHW DO ,IZHDVVXPHWKDWVZ FPGP FPZV FPV FPSHU KRXU DFW GHQV KRVWVFPDQGGW KRXUWKHQSHHTXDOVSHU KRXU,QYHVWPHQWLQIXWXUHUHSURGXFWLRQWKURXJKKRVWIHHGLQJGRHVQRWVHHPDGDSWLYHDW WKLV KRVW HQFRXQWHU UDWH VHH &KDSWHU 6RPH RSWLPLVDWLRQ PRGHOV KDYH LQGHHG SUHGLFWHG WKDW WKH FULWLFDO HJJ ORDG DW ZKLFK SDUDVLWRLGV VKRXOG KRVW IHHG GHFUHDVHV WRZDUGV YHU\ ORZ KRVW HQFRXQWHU UDWHV -HUYLV .LGG &KDQ *RGIUD\ &ROOLHUE &ROOLHUE GLGQRWHYHQFRQVLGHUKRVWHQFRXQWHUSUREDELOLWLHVEHORZ SHU PLQ (YHQ H[WUHPHO\ V\QRYLJHQLF VSHFLHV WKDW KDYH OLPLWHG HJJ VWRUDJH FDSDFLW\ OLNH ( IRUPRVD -HUYLV HW DO DUH XQOLNHO\ WR EHFRPH HJJ OLPLWHG DW WKH
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD
D
KHLJKWFP
KHLJKWFP
E
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP F
: HVW( DVWFRRUGLQDWHFP
G
VHPLYDULDQFH
6 RXWK1RUWKFRRUGLQDWHFP
GLVWDQFHLQWHUYDOK FP
)LJ:KLWHIO\GLVWULEXWLRQZLWKLQDSORWRIVHYHUDOXQLGHQWLILHGSODQWVSHFLHVVDPSOHGDW %RUXFD,QGLDQ 5HVHUYH-XO\DF 7ZRGLPHQVLRQDOSURMHFWLRQVVKRZLQJSRVLWLRQRIOHDIFHQWUHEODFNGRW DQG WRWDOQXPEHURIZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVRQWKDWOHDIEXEEOHDUHD %XEEOHVL]HZDVVFDOHGWRWRLQFUHDVH UHDGDELOLW\ G 6HPLYDULRJUDP VKRZLQJ VHPLYDULDQFH RI VTXDUHURRWWUDQVIRUPHG WRWDO QXPEHU RI ZKLWHIO\ Q\PSKV SHU OHDI DJDLQVW WKH GLVWDQFH LQWHUYDO EHWZHHQ OHDYHV PRVW SDUVLPRQLRXV QHVWHG *DXVVLDQ PRGHO5 3 (^J` ^±H[S>±K @`IRUKdFPDQG (^J` ±H[S^±>K± @` IRUK!FPUDQJHGHILQHGE\ $|FP ILUVWVHPLYDULRJUDP DQG $|FPVHFRQGVHPLYDULRJUDP
DYHUDJHKRVWGHQVLW\ZHIRXQGLQWKHILHOG+HLPSHOHWDO DOVRDVVXPHGUDQGRP KRVW HQFRXQWHU DQG FRQFOXGHG IURP G\QDPLF PRGHOOLQJ WKDW $SK\WLV SDUDVLWRLGV $SKHOLQLGDH OLNH (QFDUVLD PLJKW EHFRPH WHPSRUDULO\ HJJOLPLWHG LQ WKH ILHOG 7KHLU KRVWHQFRXQWHUUDWHRIVFDOHVSHUPLQZDVKRZHYHUEDVHGRQREVHUYDWLRQVLQD GHVHUWHGFLWUXVRUFKDUG+HLPSHOHWDO UDWKHUWKDQLQQDWXUDOYHJHWDWLRQ7KXVRXU ILHOGHVWLPDWHRIQDWXUDOKRVWGHQVLW\LVUHODWLYHO\ORZDQGPD\HIIHFWPRGHOSUHGLFWLRQV RQRSWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
&KDSWHU
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
1DWXUDOKLVWRU\RIZKLWHIO\LQ&RVWD5LFD
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³DOH\URFHQWULF´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¶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f
>KPD[@ >WP PPD[@
WLPHVWHSVE HJJV HJJHTXLYDOHQWV
>WPD[@ >L@ >[PD[@ >\PD[@
GD\V
6HHVFHQDULRV
HJJHTXLYDOHQWV WLPHVWHSVE SHUWLPHVWHSE WLPHVWHSVE WLPHVWHSVE q&
HJJV HJJHTXLYDOHQWV
,QLWLDOYDOXHV [LQLW (JJORDGDWVWDUWRIIRUZDUGVLPXODWLRQ \LQLW (QHUJ\OHYHODWVWDUWRIIRUZDUGVLPXODWLRQ
HJJV HJJHTXLYDOHQWV
>[PD[@ FKRS^[PD[[LQLW\PD[`
&RPSRVHGSDUDPHWHUV PPD[ 0D[LPXPUDWHRIRRJHQHVLV SHK 3UREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHSWRHQFRXQWHUKRVWW\SHK SP 3UREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHSRILQVWDQWPRUWDOLW\ UHK (QFRXQWHUUDWHZLWKKRVWW\SHK
SHUWLPHVWHSE SHUWLPHVWHSE SHUWLPHVWHSE SHUWLPHVWHSE
(TXDWLRQE (TXDWLRQD (TXDWLRQ (TXDWLRQE
9DULDEOHV D 3DUDVLWRLGDJHEHWZHHQGD\WLPH G +RVWKDQGOLQJGHFLVLRQ )[\WD 0D[LPXP H[SHFWHG UHSURGXFWLYH RXWSXW EHWZHHQ WD DQGGHDWKJLYHQ[HJJVDQG\HJJHTXLYDOHQWVDW WD K +RVWW\SH PWP 1XPEHU RI HJJ HTXLYDOHQWV PDWXUHG GXULQJ WP WLPH VWHSV W :LWKLQGD\WLPH WP 1XPEHURIWLPHVWHSVRYHUZKLFKHJJVDUHPDWXUHG [ 0DWXUHHJJORDG \ (QHUJ\OHYHO 3DUDPHWHUV DPD[ 3DUDVLWRLG¶V PD[LPXP UHSURGXFWLYH DJH VXUYLYDODVVXPHG JK *DLQIURPIHHGLQJRQKRVWW\SHK KPD[ 1XPEHURIKRVWW\SHV L ,QDFWLYHSHULRG SLQW ,QWHUUXSWLRQSUREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHS SPD[ 1XPEHURISDUDVLWRLGVLQVLPXODWHGFRKRUW WPD[ /HQJWKRIDFWLYHSHULRG WKG +DQGOLQJWLPHRIGHFLVLRQG WHPS 7HPSHUDWXUHDWZKLFKRRJHQHVLVRFFXUV :K 'LUHFW ILWQHVV LQFUHPHQW LH HJJ WR DGXOW VXUYLYDO SUREDELOLW\IURPRYLSRVLWLRQLQKRVWW\SHK [PD[ 0D[LPXPHJJORDG \PD[ 0D[LPXPHQHUJ\OHYHO
D
UHMHFWLRQ KRVWIHHGLQJ RYLSRVLWLRQ /HQJWKRIWLPHVWHSFRUUHVSRQGVWRWPD[L PLQ
E
&KDSWHU
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
SLQW >H[SHFWHG ILWQHVV ZKHQ LQWHUUXSWHG @ ® ¯ SLQW >H[SHFWHG ILWQHVV ZKHQ QRW LQWHUUXSWHG @
7KH H[SHFWHG ILWQHVV ZKHQ LQWHUUXSWHG HTXDOV WKH SUREDELOLW\ WR VXUYLYH WKH UHPDLQLQJ DFWLYH SHULRG WPD[W PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH ILWQHVV YDOXH DW WLPH VWHS WPD[ ZKHQ P HJJ HTXLYDOHQWVDUHPDWXUHGLQWRHJJVGXULQJWPD[WWLPHVWHSV
>H[SHFWHG
ILWQHVV ZKHQ LQWHUUXSWHG @ H W PD[ W S P ) [ PW PD[ W \ PW PD[ W W PD[ D
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
ZKHUHZHDVVXPHWKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\RILQVWDQWPRUWDOLW\SPLVFRQVWDQWUHVXOWLQJLQDQ H[SRQHQWLDO VXUYLYDO GLVWULEXWLRQ :KHQ WKH SDUDVLWRLG LV QRW LQWHUUXSWHG LW KDV D SUREDELOLW\ 6SHK WR JDLQ WKH H[SHFWHG ILWQHVV ZKHQ QR KRVW HQFRXQWHUHG DQG WKH VXPPDWLRQ RYHU DOO KRVW W\SHV RI D SUREDELOLW\SHK WR JDLQ WKH H[SHFWHG ILWQHVV ZKHQ KRVWW\SHKLVHQFRXQWHUHGDQGKDQGOHGZLWKWKHRSWLPDOGHFLVLRQ(TXDWLRQ
>H[SHFWHG § ¨ ¨ © K
ILWQHVV ZKHQ QRW LQWHUUXSWHG @ ·
KPD[
¦ S K ¸¸ >H[SHFWHG
KPD[
H
§
¹
ILWQHVV ZKHQ QR KRVW HQFRXQWHUHG @
ªH[SHFWHG ILWQHVV ZKHQ KRVW W\SH K HQFRXQWHUHG º · » ¸¸ KDQGOHG ZLWK RSWLPDO GHFLVLRQ ¼¹
¦ ¨¨© S K «¬DQG H
K
:KHQQRKRVWLVHQFRXQWHUHGWKHH[SHFWHGILWQHVVLVWKHSURGXFWRIWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDW WKH SDUDVLWRLG VXUYLYHV WKH WLPH VWHS DQG WKH ILWQHVV YDOXH LQ WKH QH[W WLPH VWHS ZKHQ P HJJHTXLYDOHQWVDUHPDWXUHGGXULQJRQHWLPHVWHS(TXDWLRQ
>H[SHFWHG
ILWQHVV ZKHQ QR KRVW HQFRXQWHUHG @ H SP ) [ P \ P W D
:KHQDKRVWRIW\SHKLVHQFRXQWHUHGWKHH[SHFWHGILWQHVVHTXDOVWKHILWQHVVLQFUHPHQW UHVXOWLQJIURPWKHRSWLPDOGHFLVLRQ7KHRSWLPDOGHFLVLRQLVWKHGHFLVLRQGWKDW\LHOGVWKH KLJKHVW VXP RI FXUUHQW DQG IXWXUH H[SHFWHG ILWQHVV SURYLGHG WKDW W d WPD[±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
>H[SHFWHG
ILWQHVV ZKHQ KRVW
W\SH K HQFRXQWHUHG DQG KDQGOHG ZLWK RSWLPDO GHFLVLRQ @
º ªH
) [ PW K \ PW K W W K D » « W K S P
) [ PW K PLQ \ PW K J K \ PD[ W W K D » PD[ «H G « » W S P
) [ PW K \ PW K W W K D »¼ «¬: K H K W K S P
&KDSWHU
7KXV WKH ILUVW G\QDPLF SURJUDPPLQJ HTXDWLRQ GHVFULELQJ WKH ZLWKLQGD\ G\QDPLFV LV JLYHQE\(TXDWLRQVHHDOVR&KDQ ) [ \ W D
S LQW H W PD[ W SP ) [ PW PD[ W \ PW PD[ W W PD[ D
§ KPD[ ½ · °¨ ° S H K ¸ H SP ) [ P \ P W D ¸ ° °¨© K ¹ ° ° ° ° ªH W K SP ) [ PW K \ PW K W W K D º ·¾ S LQW ® §¨ ¸ KPD[ « » ° ° ¨ W S P
) [ PW K PLQ \ PW K J K \ PD[ W W K D » ¸¸° ° ¨ S H K PD[ «H K G « » ° °K ¨ W S P
) [ PW K \ PW K W W K D «¬: K H K »¼ ¸° °¯ © ¹¿
¦
¦
(TXDWLRQ UHIOHFWV WKH WUDGHRII EHWZHHQ FXUUHQW DQG IXWXUH UHSURGXFWLRQ &XUUHQW UHSURGXFWLRQLHRYLSRVLWLRQLVH[SUHVVHGDVWKHLPPHGLDWHILWQHVVLQFUHPHQW:K EXW GHFUHDVHVWKHHJJORDGDQGWKXVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHSURGXFHLQWKHIXWXUH+RVWIHHGLQJRQ WKHRWKHUKDQGGRHVQRWKDYHGLUHFWILWQHVVEHQHILWVEXWUHSUHVHQWVDQLQYHVWPHQWLQIXWXUH UHSURGXFWLRQ WKURXJK JDLQ RI JK HJJ HTXLYDOHQWV WKDW FDQ EH PDWXUHG LQWR HJJV 5HMHFWLRQ FDQ EH DQ RSWLPDO VWUDWHJ\ LI WKH WLPH WR UHMHFW D KRVW LV VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH KDQGOLQJ WLPH RI KRVW IHHGLQJ ZKLFK XVXDOO\ LV WKH FDVH 7KURXJK UHMHFWLRQ WKH SDUDVLWRLGFDQVDYHWLPHWRVHDUFKIRUPRUHVXLWDEOHKRVWV %HWZHHQGD\G\QDPLFV 7KH VHFRQG G\QDPLF SURJUDPPLQJ HTXDWLRQ GHVFULEHV WKH EHWZHHQGD\ G\QDPLFV 7KHH[SHFWHGILWQHVVRIDSDUDVLWRLGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHLQDFWLYHSHULRGWPD[D LVWKH SUREDELOLW\ WR VXUYLYH WKH LQDFWLYH SHULRG RI L WLPH VWHSV WLPHV WKH ILWQHVV YDOXH DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH DFWLYH SHULRG WKH QH[W GD\ D ZKHQ PL HJJ HTXLYDOHQWV DUH PDWXUHGLQWRHJJVGXULQJWKHLQDFWLYHSHULRGRILWLPHVWHSV(TXDWLRQ ) [ \ W PD[ D
H L SP ) [ PL \ PL D
6ROXWLRQ 7KH G\QDPLF SURJUDPPLQJ HTXDWLRQV DUH VROYHG XVLQJ EDFNZDUG LWHUDWLRQ DV GHVFULEHGLQ0DQJHO &ODUN 6HH$SSHQGL[IRUDIORZFKDUWRIWKHEDFNZDUG LWHUDWLRQ7KHVWDUWLQJSRLQWLVZKHQWKHUHLVQRILWQHVVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHQHUJ\ RU HJJV LH DW WKH HQG RI WKH PD[LPXP UHSURGXFWLYH SHULRG WPD[LDPD[ 7KXV ZH VHW )[\WPD[LDPD[ IRUDOOFRPELQDWLRQVRI[DQG\YDOXHVZKLFKDUH[PD[ \PD[ ]HURYDOXHV)URPWKHUHWKHPRGHOFDOFXODWHVDQGVWRUHVIRUHDFKFRPELQDWLRQRILQWHJHU HJJ ORDG DQG LQWHJHU HQHUJ\ VWDWH WKH ILWQHVV YDOXH DW WPD[ XVLQJ WKH ILUVW G\QDPLF SURJUDPPLQJ HTXDWLRQ (TXDWLRQ $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH RSWLPDO GHFLVLRQ LV VWRUHG IRU HDFK FRPELQDWLRQ RI LQWHJHU HJJ ORDG LQWHJHU HQHUJ\ VWDWH DQG KRVW W\SH 7KLUG OLQHDU LQWHUSRODWLRQ VHH EHORZ LQWKH VLPXODWLRQ SDUW RI WKH PRGHO UHTXLUHV WR VWRUH IRU HDFK
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
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±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
&KDSWHU
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§ § § [ PW P PLQ¨ PLQ ¨ W P P PD[ ¨¨ ¨ ¨ © [ PD[ © ©
· · · ¸ \ ¸ [ PD[ [ ¸ ¸ ¸ ¸ ¹ ¹ ¹
D
ZKHUH PPD[ LV WKH PD[LPXP UDWH RI RRJHQHVLV SHU WLPH VWHS ZKLFK GHSHQGV RQ WHPSHUDWXUHWHPSq& LQWKHIROORZLQJZD\DIWHUYDQ5RHUPXQGHWDO P PD[
WHPS W PD[ L
E
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
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
) [Q \Q
'[ '\ ) [ \ '[ '\) [ \ ° '[ '\ ) [ \ '['\) [ \ °° ® '\ ) [ PD[ \ '\) [ PD[ \ ° '[ ) [ \ '[) [ \ PD[ PD[ ° ¯° ) [ PD[ \ PD[
LI LI LI LI
[ Q [ PD[ [ Q [ PD[ [ Q [ PD[ [ Q [ PD[
\ Q \ PD[ \ Q \ PD[ \ Q \ PD[ \ Q \ PD[
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
OQ D PD[ W PD[ L
3DUDPHWHU9DOXHV DPD[SLQW ,QWKHODERUDWRU\(IRUPRVD¶VORQJHYLW\LVDIIHFWHGE\WHPSHUDWXUHKXPLGLW\IRRG JHQGHU PDOHV VRPHWLPHV RFFXU KRVW SODQW VSHFLHV DQG KRVW VSHFLHV UHDUHG RQ YDQ 5RHUPXQG YDQ/HQWHUHQE+RGGOHHWDO .DMLWD IRXQGDQDYHUDJH ORQJHYLW\RIRQO\GD\DWq&DQGGD\VDWq&9HW YDQ/HQWHUHQ HYHQ IRXQGDQDYHUDJHOLIHVSDQRIGD\VDWq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
&KDSWHU
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¶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¶ $SSHQGL[ 8VLQJ GLIIHUHQW VFHQDULRV VHH EHORZ ZH VWXGLHG RSWLPDO KRVWKDQGOLQJ GHFLVLRQVDQGOLIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVVZKHQSDUDVLWRLG¶VOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ZDVVKRUW DPD[ GD\VLHPHDQORQJHYLW\RQDYHUDJHDERXWGD\V DQGORQJDPD[ GD\V LHPHDQORQJHYLW\RQDYHUDJHDERXWGD\V 3DUDVLWRLGV DUH DEOH WR FKDQJH WKHLU EHKDYLRXU LQ UHVSRQVH WR UDLQ RU ZLQG )LQN 9|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
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
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q& ZKLFK LPSOLHV WKDW WKH PD[LPXP UDWH RI HJJ PDWXUDWLRQ PPD[ HTXDOV DERXW HJJV SHU WLPH VWHS (TXDWLRQ E LH DERXW HJJVSHUKRXU SHK UHK 7KH SUREDELOLW\ SH WR HQFRXQWHU KRVW W\SH K ZLWKLQ W WLPH VWHSV LV GHULYHG IURP WKH 3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ S H K H UH K W
D
ZKHUH UHK LV WKH HQFRXQWHU UDWH ZLWK KRVW W\SH K LH QXPEHU RI KRVWV RI W\SH K HQFRXQWHUHGGXULQJWLPHVWHSW(TXDWLRQDLVEDVHGRQZHOOGRFXPHQWHGREVHUYDWLRQV WKDW ( IRUPRVD GRHV QRW GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ LQIHVWHG DQG XQLQIHVWHG SODQWV RU OHDYHV 1ROGXV YDQ/HQWHUHQ5RPHLV =HELW]6WWHUOLQ YDQ/HQWHUHQ DQGKDVDUDQGRPZDONLQJSDWWHUQRQOHDYHVYDQ/HQWHUHQHWDOD/LHWDO
&KDSWHU 7DEOH3DUDPHWHUVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHUDWH UHK DQGSUREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHS SHK WRHQFRXQWHUDKRVWRI W\SHK 6\PERO
'HVFULSWLRQ
DFW GHQV GPK UFK VZ ZV
8QLW
9DOXH
)UDFWLRQRIWRWDOVHDUFKLQJWLPHZDONLQJDFWLYHO\
'HQVLW\RIWRWDOKRVWSRSXODWLRQ +RVWGLDPHWHU 5HODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI KRVW W\SH K WR WRWDO KRVW SRSXODWLRQ :LGWKRISDUDVLWRLG¶VVHDUFKLQJSDWK :DONLQJVSHHGRISDUDVLWRLG
FP FP
6HHVFHQDULRV
FP FPSHUWLPHVWHSD
D
/HQJWKRIWLPHVWHSFRUUHVSRQGVWRWPD[L PLQ
YDQ5RHUPXQG YDQ/HQWHUHQD6WWHUOLQ YDQ/HQWHUHQ 9DQ5RHUPXQG HWDO XVHGDQHTXDWLRQGHULYHGE\6NHOODP IRUWKHHQFRXQWHUUDWH UH K
VZ GPK ZV DFW GHQV UFK
E
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
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
ZKLOH GUXPPLQJ RQ WKH OHDI VXUIDFH LV DERXW RI WKH WRWDO WLPH RQ WKH OHDI YDQ 5RHUPXQG YDQ/HQWHUHQD6WWHUOLQ YDQ/HQWHUHQ GHQVUFK %HVLGHVWKHHIIHFWRIOLIHH[SHFWDQF\RXUPDMRUIRFXVLVRQWKHHIIHFWRIKRVWGHQVLW\ GHQV RQ KRVWKDQGOLQJ GHFLVLRQV 7KHUHIRUH ZH FRPSDUHG QDWXUDO ZKLWHIO\ GHQVLWLHV IRXQGLQ(IRUPRVD¶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
WRWDOKRVW HQFRXQWHU SURSDELOLW\SHU PLQWLPHVWHS
WRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\FP
ZDONLQJVSHHG FPSHUPLQ WLPHVWHS
)LJ7RWDOSUREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHS 6SHK WRHQFRXQWHUDKRVWSHUPLQWLPHVWHS DVGHWHUPLQHGE\ WRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\GHQVFP DQGSDUDVLWRLG¶VZDONLQJVSHHGZVFPSHUPLQWLPHVWHS ,QWKHSDUDPHWHU VSDFHZKHUHWRWDOKRVWHQFRXQWHUSUREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHSHTXDOVSHUWLPHVWHSKDQGOLQJWLPHUDWKHUWKDQ KRVWHQFRXQWHUUDWHOLPLWVWKHQXPEHURIKRVWVWKDWFDQEHKDQGOHGSHUGD\2WKHUSDUDPHWHUYDOXHV VZ FPGPK FPDFW UFK
&KDSWHU
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¶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
6FHQDULRV +RVWIHHGLQJ VWUDWHJLHV ZHUH LQYHVWLJDWHG XQGHU VL[ GLIIHUHQW VFHQDULRV 7DEOH XVLQJ WKH SDUDPHWHUV KRVW GHQVLW\ GHQV DQG DJH KRUL]RQ DPD[ ,Q WKUHH VFHQDULRV
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV 7DEOH6FHQDULRVFKDUDFWHULVHGE\DJHKRUL]RQ DPD[GD\V DQGWRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\ GHQVFP 6VWDQGV IRUVKRUW/IRUORQJOLIHH[SHFWDQF\)IRUILHOGGHQVLW\,IRULQWHUPHGLDWHGHQVLW\DQG3IRUSHVWGHQVLW\ GHQVFP DPD[GD\V
6)
6,
63
/)
/,
/3
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¶V OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ RQ WKH RSWLPDO IUDFWLRQ RI KRVW HQFRXQWHUV DFFHSWHG IRU HLWKHU KRVW IHHGLQJ RU RYLSRVLWLRQ ³DFFHSWDQFH UDWLR´ )LJ D WKH RSWLPDO IUDFWLRQ RI DFFHSWHG KRVWV IHG XSRQ ³KRVW IHHGLQJUDWLR´)LJE DQGWKHOLIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVV³ILWQHVV´)LJF $WORZ KRVW GHQVLWLHV HDFK KRVW HQFRXQWHUHG VKRXOG EH DFFHSWHG EXW WKH DFFHSWDQFH UDWLR VLJPRLGDOO\ GHFUHDVHV ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ KRVW GHQVLW\ )LJ D $W SHVW GHQVLW\ VFHQDULR 3 RQO\DERXWRIWKHKRVWVHQFRXQWHUHGFDQEHDFFHSWHGGXHWRHJJOLPLWDWLRQVHH EHORZ 7KLVSHUFHQWDJHLVVWDEOHIRUKRVWGHQVLWLHVDERYHFPEHFDXVHWKHVKRUWHVW KDQGOLQJWLPHWLPHVWHSRUPLQ WKHQOLPLWVWKHQXPEHURIKRVWHQFRXQWHUVSHUGD\ JLYHQWKHRWKHUSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVLQ7DEOHVHH)LJZV FPSHUWLPHVWHS /LIH H[SHFWDQF\GRHVQRWLPSRUWDQWO\DIIHFWWKHDFFHSWDQFHUDWLR)LJD 8QGHU SUHVXPDEOH ILHOG FRQGLWLRQV LH VKRUW OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ DQG ORZ KRVW GHQVLW\ QRQH r RI WKH DFFHSWHG KRVWV VKRXOG EH XVHG IRU IHHGLQJ )LJ E
DFFHSWDQFHUDWLR
&KDSWHU $ PD[
$ PD[
D
KRVWIHHGLQJUDWLR
WRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\FP $ PD[
$ PD[
E
WRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\FP
ILWQHVV
$ PD[
$ PD[
F
WRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\FP )LJ 6LPXODWHG PHDQ r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
UHODWLYHILWQHVV
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV $ PD[
$ PD[
WRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\FP )LJ 6LPXODWHG PHDQ OLIHWLPH UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV OLIHWLPH QXPEHU RI GHSRVLWHG HJJV VXUYLYLQJ XQWLO DGXOWKRRG RISDUDVLWRLGVWKDWGHFLGHUDQGRPO\ZKHWKHUWRUHMHFWKRVWIHHGSURYLGHGWKDW WdWPD[WK RU RYLSRVLWSURYLGHGWKDW[t UHODWLYHWRVLPXODWHGPHDQOLIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVVRISDUDVLWRLGVWKDW PDNHRSWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJGHFLVLRQVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\ GHQVFP ZKHQOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ LVVKRUWRSHQV\PEROVDPD[ GD\V DQGORQJFORVHGV\PEROVDPD[ GD\V 'HWDFKHGGDWDSRLQWVRQ WKHULJKWKDQGVLGHDUHUHVXOWVIURPVLPXODWLRQVZLWKDWRWDOKRVWGHQVLW\RIFP 9HUWLFDOGRWWHGOLQHV LQGLFDWHGHQVLWLHVXVHGDVVFHQDULR
+RZHYHU ZKHQ OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ LV ORQJ r RI WKH DFFHSWHG KRVWV VKRXOG EH IHG XSRQ DW ILHOG KRVW GHQVLW\ 7KH PHDQ RSWLPDO KRVWIHHGLQJ UDWLR LQLWLDOO\ LQFUHDVHVVWHHSO\ZLWKKRVWGHQVLW\EXWOHYHOVRIIWRVKRUWOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DQG ORQJOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ RIWKHDFFHSWHGKRVWV7KXVERWKKRVWGHQVLW\DQGSDUDVLWRLG¶V OLIHH[SHFWDQF\KDYHDSRVLWLYHHIIHFWRQWKHRSWLPDOKRVWIHHGLQJUDWLRHVSHFLDOO\DWORZ KRVWGHQVLWLHV +RVW GHQVLW\ DQG OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ DOVR KDYH D SURIRXQG LPSDFW RQ OLIHWLPH UHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVV)LJF /LIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVVFOHDUO\OHYHOVRIIWRDERXW rVKRUWOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DQGrORQJOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ ZKHQKRVWGHQVLW\ H[FHHGVFP,QWKHILHOGVFHQDULR6) OLIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVVRISDUDVLWRLGV WKDWPDNHRSWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJGHFLVLRQVDYHUDJHVr)LJF 7KLVLVFORVHWRD VWDEOH SRSXODWLRQ LQ ZKLFK SDUDVLWRLGV ZRXOG UHSODFH WKHPVHOYHV E\ KDYLQJ D PHDQ OLIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVVRIRQH )LJ VKRZV WKH OLIHWLPH UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV RI SDUDVLWRLGV WKDW GHFLGH UDQGRPO\ ZKHWKHUWRUHMHFWKRVWIHHGSURYLGHGWKDWWdWPD[WK RURYLSRVLWSURYLGHGWKDW[t UHODWLYH WR WKH OLIHWLPH UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV RI SDUDVLWRLGV WKDW PDNH RSWLPDO KRVW KDQGOLQJ GHFLVLRQV )LJ F 3DUDVLWRLGV WKDW PDNH UDQGRP GHFLVLRQV JDLQ RQ DYHUDJH RQO\ KRVWV FP WR KRVWV FP RI WKH OLIHWLPH UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV WKDW SDUDVLWRLGV JDLQ ZKHQ PDNLQJ RSWLPDO GHFLVLRQV LQGHSHQGHQW RI OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW WKHUH LV D VWURQJ VHOHFWLRQ SUHVVXUH RQ PDNLQJ RSWLPDO GHFLVLRQVDQGWKDWWKHVHOHFWLRQSUHVVXUHLVKLJKHVWDWORZKRVWGHQVLWLHV
&KDSWHU D
29
QXPEHU
QXPEHU
E
+)
5
+)
29
5
DJHGD\V
DJHGD\V F
QXPEHU
HJJORDG HQHUJ\OHYHO
DJHGD\V
)LJ2XWSXWIURP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQIRUVFHQDULR6)ZKHUHSDUDVLWRLGVKDYHDVKRUWOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DPD[ GD\V DQGIRUDJHDWILHOGKRVWGHQVLW\GHQV KRVWVFP 6KRZQDUHVWDFNHGPHDQVrVG IRU QXPEHU RI D EDG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : DQG E JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : UHMHFWHG EODFN EDUV IHGXSRQJUH\ EDUV DQG XVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQ ZKLWH EDUV SHUGD\ DQGF PHDQ r VG HJJORDG ZKLWHV\PEROV DQGHQHUJ\OHYHOEODFNV\PEROV DWZLWKLQGD\LQWHUYDOVRIWLPHVWHSVKRXUV
7RJDLQPRUHLQVLJKWLQWKHSDWWHUQVREVHUYHGLQ)LJZHSORWWHGWKHVWDFNHGPHDQV IRUWKHQXPEHURIKRVWVUHMHFWHGIHGXSRQDQGXVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQSHUGD\DQGSHUKRVW W\SHDQGWKHVWDWHG\QDPLFVIRUWKHVL[VFHQDULRV)LJWR $JDLQLWLVFOHDUWKDWKRVW IHHGLQJ LV YLUWXDOO\ DEVHQW ZKHQ SDUDVLWRLGV DUH VLPXODWHG XQGHU SUHVXPDEO\ QDWXUDO FRQGLWLRQV)LJ (YHU\KRVWHQFRXQWHUHGVKRXOGEHXVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQUHJDUGOHVVRI KRVW TXDOLW\ RU SDUDVLWRLG¶V DJH )LJ DE 2QFH DOO WKH HQHUJ\ UHVHUYHV IURP WKH LPPDWXUH VWDJH DUH FRQYHUWHG LQWR HJJV WKH HJJ ORDG RQO\ JUDGXDOO\ GHFUHDVHV GXH WR UDUHHYHQWVRIRYLSRVLWLRQ)LJF 7KHKRVWHQFRXQWHUUDWHLVPXFKVORZHUWKDQWKHHJJ PDWXUDWLRQUDWHDQGSDUDVLWRLGVDUHFOHDUO\KRVWOLPLWHG1HYHUWKHOHVVWKH\HQFRXQWHUDQG SDUDVLWLVHRQDYHUDJHDERXWEDGTXDOLW\KRVWVSHUGD\)LJ D DQG DERXW JRRG TXDOLW\KRVWVSHUGD\)LJE LQWRWDODERXWKRVWVSHUGD\
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV D
29
QXPEHU
QXPEHU
E
+)
5
+)
29
5
DJHGD\V
DJHGD\V F
QXPEHU
HJJORDG HQHUJ\OHYHO
DJHGD\V
)LJ2XWSXWIURP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQIRUVFHQDULR6,ZKHUHSDUDVLWRLGVKDYHDVKRUWOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DPD[ GD\V DQGIRUDJHDWLQWHUPHGLDWHKRVWGHQVLW\GHQV KRVWVFP 6KRZQDUHVWDFNHGPHDQV r VG IRU QXPEHU RI D EDG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : DQG E JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : UHMHFWHG EODFNEDUV IHGXSRQJUH\EDUV DQGXVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQZKLWHEDUV SHUGD\DQGF PHDQ rVG HJJ ORDGZKLWHV\PEROV DQGHQHUJ\OHYHOEODFNV\PEROV DWZLWKLQGD\LQWHUYDOVRIWLPHVWHSVKRXUV
$WLQWHUPHGLDWHKRVWGHQVLW\ RI FP )LJ SDUDVLWRLGV HQFRXQWHU RQ DYHUDJH DERXWEDGTXDOLW\KRVWVSHUGD\)LJD DQGDERXWJRRGTXDOLW\ KRVWV SHU GD\ )LJ E LQ WRWDO DERXW KRVWV SHU GD\ $OO JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV VKRXOG EH XVHG IRU RYLSRVLWLRQ)LJE $OPRVWKDOIRIWKHEDGTXDOLW\KRVWVVKRXOGEHIHGXSRQ)LJD 7KHKRVWKDQGOLQJEHKDYLRXULVPRUHRUOHVVLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHSDUDVLWRLG¶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
&KDSWHU D
29
QXPEHU
QXPEHU
E
+)
5
+)
29
5
DJHGD\V
DJHGD\V F
QXPEHU
HJJORDG HQHUJ\OHYHO
DJHGD\V
)LJ2XWSXWIURP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQIRUVFHQDULR63ZKHUHSDUDVLWRLGVKDYHDVKRUWOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DPD[ GD\V DQGIRUDJHDWSHVWKRVWGHQVLW\GHQV KRVWVFP 6KRZQDUHVWDFNHGPHDQVrVG IRU QXPEHURID EDGTXDOLW\KRVWV: DQGE JRRGTXDOLW\KRVWV: UHMHFWHGEODFNEDUV IHGXSRQJUH\EDUV DQGXVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQZKLWHEDUV SHUGD\DQGF PHDQ rVG HJJORDGZKLWH V\PEROV DQGHQHUJ\OHYHOEODFNV\PEROV DWZLWKLQGD\LQWHUYDOVRIWLPHVWHSVKRXUV
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
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV D
QXPEHU
29
+)
5
DJHGD\V E
QXPEHU
29
+)
5
DJHGD\V HJJORDG
F
HQHUJ\OHYHO
QXPEHU
DJHGD\V
)LJ2XWSXWIURP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQIRUVFHQDULR/)ZKHUHSDUDVLWRLGVKDYHDORQJOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DPD[ GD\V DQGIRUDJHDWILHOGKRVWGHQVLW\GHQV KRVWVFP 6KRZQDUHVWDFNHGPHDQVrVG IRU QXPEHU RI D EDG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : DQG E JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : UHMHFWHG EODFN EDUV IHGXSRQJUH\ EDUV DQG XVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQ ZKLWH EDUV SHUGD\ DQGF PHDQ r VG HJJORDG ZKLWHV\PEROV DQGHQHUJ\OHYHOEODFNV\PEROV DWWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKHHQGRIHDFKDFWLYHSHULRG'DWD DUHPRUHRUOHVVXQFKDQJLQJEHWZHHQDQGGD\VDQGWKHUHIRUHQRWVKRZQ
&KDSWHU D
QXPEHU
29
+)
5
DJHGD\V E
QXPEHU
29
+)
5
DJHGD\V HJJORDG
F
HQHUJ\OHYHO
QXPEHU
DJHGD\V
)LJ2XWSXWIURP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQIRUVFHQDULR/,ZKHUHSDUDVLWRLGVKDYHDORQJOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DPD[ GD\V DQG IRUDJH DW LQWHUPHGLDWH KRVW GHQVLW\ GHQV KRVWV FP 6KRZQ DUH VWDFNHG PHDQV r VG IRU QXPEHU RI D EDG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : DQG E JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : UHMHFWHGEODFNEDUV IHGXSRQJUH\EDUV DQGXVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQZKLWHEDUV SHUGD\DQGF PHDQ r VG HJJORDGZKLWHV\PEROV DQGHQHUJ\OHYHOEODFNV\PEROV DWWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKHHQGRIHDFKDFWLYH SHULRG'DWDDUHPRUHRUOHVVXQFKDQJLQJEHWZHHQDQGGD\VDQGWKHUHIRUHQRWVKRZQ
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV D
QXPEHU
29
+)
5
DJHGD\V E
QXPEHU
29
+)
5
DJHGD\V HJJORDG
F
HQHUJ\OHYHO
QXPEHU
DJHGD\V
)LJ2XWSXWIURP0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQIRUVFHQDULR/3ZKHUHSDUDVLWRLGVKDYHDORQJOLIHH[SHFWDQF\ DPD[ GD\V DQGIRUDJHDWSHVWKRVWGHQVLW\GHQV KRVWVFP 6KRZQDUHVWDFNHGPHDQVrVG IRU QXPEHU RI D EDG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : DQG E JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV : UHMHFWHG EODFN EDUV IHGXSRQJUH\ EDUV DQG XVHGIRURYLSRVLWLRQ ZKLWH EDUV SHUGD\ DQGF PHDQ r VG HJJORDG ZKLWHV\PEROV DQGHQHUJ\OHYHOEODFNV\PEROV DWWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKHHQGRIHDFKDFWLYHSHULRG'DWD DUHPRUHRUOHVVXQFKDQJLQJEHWZHHQDQGGD\VDQGWKHUHIRUHQRWVKRZQ
&KDSWHU
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¶V DJH H[FHSW ZKHQ HQHUJ\ IURP WKH LPPDWXUH VWDJH FDQ VWLOO EH XVHG IRU RRJHQHVLV RU ZKHQ WKH PD[LPXP UHSURGXFWLYH SHULRG LV DSSURDFKHG $W KLJKHU KRVW GHQVLWLHVOLIHH[SHFWDQF\GRHVQRWKDYHDFOHDUHIIHFWRQKRVWKDQGOLQJEHKDYLRXU)LJ YVDQGYV 3DUDVLWRLGVEHFRPHOLPLWHGE\WKHUDWHRIHJJPDWXUDWLRQIURPKRVW IHHGLQJJDLQV
(ODVWLFLW\$QDO\VHV (ODVWLFLW\DQDO\VHVZHUHSHUIRUPHGIRUWKHVL[VFHQDULRVWRUHYHDOWKHLPSDFWRIHDFK SDUDPHWHURQWKHPRGHOSUHGLFWLRQV(ODVWLFLW\HLVGHILQHGDVWKHFKDQJHLQDUHVSRQVH YDULDEOH\IURP\ROGWR\QHZUHODWLYHWRWKHFKDQJHLQDSDUDPHWHUSIURPSGHIDXOWWRSQHZ H
\ QHZ \ ROG \ ROG S QHZ S GHIDXOW S GHIDXOW
+HQFHDQHODVWLFLW\RI±PHDQVWKDWWKHFKDQJHLQWKHUHVSRQVHYDULDEOHZDVWZLFHDV ODUJH DV DQG LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ RI WKH FKDQJH LQ WKH SDUDPHWHU $V UHVSRQVH YDULDEOHVZHXVHGWKHPHDQRSWLPDOIUDFWLRQRIKRVWHQFRXQWHUVWKDWVKRXOGEHDFFHSWHG ³DFFHSWDQFHUDWLR´ WKHPHDQRSWLPDOIUDFWLRQRIDFFHSWHGKRVWVWKDWVKRXOGEHIHGXSRQ ³KRVWIHHGLQJUDWLR´ DQGWKHPHDQSUHGLFWHGOLIHWLPHUHSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVV³ILWQHVV´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
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV 7DEOHD&KDQJHLQSUHGLFWHGPHDQRSWLPDOIUDFWLRQRIKRVWHQFRXQWHUVWKDWVKRXOGEHDFFHSWHGIRUHLWKHU KRVW IHHGLQJ RU RYLSRVLWLRQ ³DFFHSWDQFH UDWLR´ XQGHU GHIDXOW SDUDPHWHU YDOXHV UHODWLYH WR FKDQJH LQ SDUDPHWHUYDOXHHODVWLFLW\ IRUVL[VFHQDULRV'HIDXOWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVZHUHJHQHUDOO\KDOYHGVHHWH[W $FFHSWDQFH UDWLRV XQGHU GHIDXOW SDUDPHWHU YDOXHV DUH JLYHQ IRU UHIHUHQFH +LJK HODVWLFLWLHV DUH RXWOLQHG DPD[ SDUDVLWRLG¶V DJH KRUL]RQ GD\V DFW IUDFWLRQ RI VHDUFKLQJ WLPH ZDONLQJ DFWLYHO\ GHQV GHQVLW\ RI WRWDOKRVWSRSXODWLRQFP GPK GLDPHWHURIKRVWW\SH KFP JK JDLQIURPIHHGLQJRQKRVWW\SH K HJJHTXLYDOHQWV KPD[QXPEHURIKRVWW\SHV SLQWLQWHUUXSWLRQSUREDELOLW\SHUWLPHVWHS UF UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQRIKRVWW\SHWRWRWDOKRVWSRSXODWLRQ VZSDUDVLWRLG¶VVHDUFKLQJZLGWKFP WK KDQGOLQJ WLPH IRU KRVW IHHGLQJ WLPH VWHSV WPD[ QXPEHU RI WLPH VWHSV LQ DFWLYH SHULRG WPD[L WHPS WHPSHUDWXUHDWZKLFK RRJHQHVLVRFFXUVq& :K GLUHFWILWQHVVLQFUHPHQWIURPRYLSRVLWLRQLQKRVWW\SH K ZV SDUDVLWRLG¶V ZDONLQJ VSHHG FP SHU WLPH VWHS [PD[ PD[LPXP HJJ ORDG \PD[ PD[LPXP HQHUJ\ OHYHO /LIHH[SHFWDQF\ 6KRUWDPD[ GD\V +RVW GHQVLW\ )LHOG ,QWHUPHGLDWH 3HVW FP
/RQJDPD[ GD\V )LHOG ,QWHUPHGLDWH 3HVW
$FFHSWDQFHUDWLRXQGHUGHIDXOWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHV (ODVWLFLW\ DPD[ DFW GHQV GP GP GP J J J KPD[ SLQW UF VZ WK WPD[ WHPS : : : ZV [PD[ \PD[
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ±
± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
$OOKRVWVZHUHDFFHSWHGDIWHUSDUDPHWHUYDOXHZDVFKDQJHG
&KDSWHU 7DEOH E &KDQJH LQ SUHGLFWHG PHDQ IUDFWLRQ RI DFFHSWHG KRVWV WKDW VKRXOG EH IHG XSRQ ³KRVWIHHGLQJ UDWLR´ XQGHUGHIDXOWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVUHODWLYHWRFKDQJHLQSDUDPHWHUYDOXHHODVWLFLW\ IRUVL[VFHQDULRV 'HIDXOW SDUDPHWHU YDOXHV ZHUH JHQHUDOO\ KDOYHG VHH WH[W +RVWIHHGLQJ UDWLRV XQGHU GHIDXOW SDUDPHWHU YDOXHVDUHJLYHQIRUUHIHUHQFH+LJKHODVWLFLWLHVDUHRXWOLQHG /LIHH[SHFWDQF\ 6KRUWDPD[ GD\V +RVW GHQVLW\ )LHOG ,QWHUPHGLDWH 3HVW FP
/RQJDPD[ GD\V )LHOG ,QWHUPHGLDWH 3HVW
+RVWIHHGLQJUDWLRXQGHUGHIDXOWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHV (ODVWLFLW\ DPD[ DFW GHQV GP GP GP J J J KPD[ SLQW UF VZ WK WPD[ WHPS : : : ZV [PD[ \PD[
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ±
±
±
± ±
±
± ± ± ± ± ±
± ± ± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±
± ± ± ±
±
±
1RWRQHKRVWZDVIHGXSRQDIWHUSDUDPHWHUYDOXHZDVFKDQJHG
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
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV 7DEOH F &KDQJH LQ SUHGLFWHG PHDQ OLIHWLPH UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV ³ILWQHVV´ XQGHU GHIDXOW SDUDPHWHU YDOXHVUHODWLYHWRFKDQJHLQSDUDPHWHUYDOXHHODVWLFLW\ IRUVL[VFHQDULRV'HIDXOWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVZHUH JHQHUDOO\ KDOYHG VHH WH[W )LWQHVV YDOXHV XQGHU GHIDXOW SDUDPHWHU YDOXHV DUH JLYHQ IRU UHIHUHQFH +LJK HODVWLFLWLHVDUHRXWOLQHG /LIHH[SHFWDQF\ 6KRUWDPD[ GD\V +RVW GHQVLW\ )LHOG ,QWHUPHGLDWH 3HVW FP
/RQJDPD[ GD\V )LHOG ,QWHUPHGLDWH 3HVW
)LWQHVVXQGHUGHIDXOWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHV (ODVWLFLW\ DPD[ DFW GHQV GP GP GP J J J KPD[ SLQW UF VZ WK WPD[ WHPS : : : ZV [PD[ \PD[
±
± ± ± ±
± ± ± ±
± ± ±
±
± ±
FRQVWDQW KDVDVLPLODUHIIHFWIRUWKHVDPHUHDVRQ:KHQLWLVLJQRUHGWKDWKRVWIHHGLQJ WDNHV ORQJHU WKDQ UHMHFWLRQ WKG WLPH VWHS WKH DFFHSWDQFH UDWLR LQFUHDVHV WR YLUWXDOO\ EHFDXVH WKHUH LV QR WLPH DGYDQWDJH RI UHMHFWLRQ RYHU KRVW IHHGLQJ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGVWKHGHFUHDVHLQDFFHSWDQFHUDWLRZLWKKRVWGHQVLW\)LJD RQO\RFFXUVZKHQKRVW IHHGLQJ WDNHV ORQJHU WKDQ UHMHFWLRQ )LQDOO\ WKH DFFHSWDQFH UDWLR LV GHFUHDVHG ZLWK D GHFUHDVH LQ WKH HJJ ORDG FDSDFLW\ [PD[ DJDLQ EHFDXVH SDUDVLWRLGV EHFRPH HJJ OLPLWHG VRRQHU
&KDSWHU
2IWKHDFFHSWHGKRVWVOHVVWKDQZDVIHGXSRQZKHQOLIHH[SHFWDQF\LVVKRUWDQG KRVW GHQVLW\ ORZ VFHQDULR 6) )LJ E 7KLV SUHGLFWHG GRHV QRW VHHP UREXVW EHFDXVH PRVW HODVWLFLWLHV H[FHHG +RZHYHU HYHQ DOWKRXJK WKH KRVWIHHGLQJ UDWLR KDV DQ HODVWLFLW\RI±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±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¶V DJH KRUL]RQ DPD[ DQG WKH ILWQHVV JDLQ IURP RYLSRVLWLRQ :K HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVW : 7KH\ FKDQJH PHDQ ILWQHVV LQ WKH VDPH RUGHU RI PDJQLWXGH DV WKH SDUDPHWHU FKDQJH $W ILHOG DQG LQWHUPHGLDWH KRVW GHQVLWLHV PHDQ ILWQHVV LV PDLQO\ DIIHFWHGE\SDUDPHWHUVWKDWGHWHUPLQHWKHKRVWHQFRXQWHUSUREDELOLW\DFWGHQVZVDQG WRDOHVVHUH[WHQWUFK VZDQGGP DQGE\WLPHWPD[DYDLODEOHWRILQGWKHOLPLWHGKRVWV 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDWSHVWKRVWGHQVLW\WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWSDUDPHWHUVDUHWHPSHUDWXUH WHPSZKLFKGHWHUPLQHVWKHUDWHRIHJJPDWXUDWLRQ(TXDWLRQ DQGWKHQXPEHURIKRVW W\SHVKPD[7KHODWWHULVLPSRUWDQWEHFDXVHKRVWVWKDWGLIIHULQVXUYLYDOSUREDELOLWLHVIRU SDUDVLWRLG HJJV EXW GR QRW GLIIHU LQ KRVWIHHGLQJ JDLQ DOORZ SDUDVLWRLGV WR OD\ HJJV LQ JRRG TXDOLW\ KRVWV DQG IHHG XSRQ EDG TXDOLW\ KRVWV $W KLJK KRVW GHQVLW\ WKH VWDWH FDSDFLWLHV [PD[ DQG \PD[ DUH DOVR PRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDQ DW ORZHU KRVW GHQVLWLHV 7KXV
2SWLPDOKRVWKDQGOLQJVWUDWHJLHV
SDUDPHWHUV WKDW DUH H[SHFWHG WR GULYH QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ DUH WKH SDUDVLWRLG¶V OLIH H[SHFWDQF\DQGWKHVXUYLYDOSUREDELOLW\RIGHSRVLWHGHJJVLQGHSHQGHQWRIKRVWGHQVLW\ WKHKRVWHQFRXQWHUSUREDELOLW\DQGOHQJWKRIDFWLYHSHULRGZKHQKRVWGHQVLW\LVORZDQG WKHHJJPDWXUDWLRQUDWHDQGQXPEHURIKRVWW\SHVZKHQKRVWGHQVLW\LVKLJK
'LVFXVVLRQ :H GHYHORSHG D G\QDPLF VWDWH YDULDEOH PRGHO WR ILQG D IXQFWLRQDO H[SODQDWLRQ IRU KRVWKDQGOLQJ EHKDYLRXU LQ WKH ZKLWHIO\ SDUDVLWRLG ( IRUPRVD $W SUHVXPDEO\ QDWXUDO FRQGLWLRQV LH ORZ KRVW GHQVLW\ &KDSWHU DQG VKRUW OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ +HLPSHO HW DO E RXUPRGHOVLPXODWLRQSUHGLFWVWKDWKRVWIHHGLQJLVPDODGDSWLYH3DUDVLWRLGV JDLQPD[LPXPOLIHWLPHILWQHVVZKHQWKH\DFFHSWDQGRYLSRVLWLQHYHU\KRVWHQFRXQWHUHG UHJDUGOHVV RI KRVW TXDOLW\ DQG SDUDVLWRLG¶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¶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
&KDSWHU
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¶$SSHQGL[ ,QWKHILHOGRQDYHUDJHRIWKHZKLWHIO\Q\PSKVEHFDPHHYHQWXDOO\SDUDVLWLVHG &KDSWHU (IRUPRVDLVDEOHWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQSDUDVLWLVHGDQGXQSDUDVLWLVHGKRVWV YDQ/HQWHUHQHWDOE %RWKLQWUDDQGLQWHUVSHFLILFFRPSHWLWLRQPD\HQKDQFHWKH WHQGHQF\WRKRVWIHHG&ROOLHU +XQWHU&ROOLHUHWDO