Hydrometeorological and Hydrological Validation of ... - Globsnow

Hydrometeorological and Hydrological Validation of Satellite derived Snow data Peter Krahe Department M2 - Water Balance, Forecasting and Predictions Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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Introduction The Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) is ... •

•

a higher authority of the Federal Republic of Germany under the jurisdiction of the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing (BMVBS) run by approximately 300 members of staff (1/3 scientists)

Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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The Federal Waterways

Water quantity

QS=750 m³/s

Water quality

Ecology Quelle: Reiss, BfG


AEo = 103605 km²

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Hydrological Extremes in Central Europe River basins Mittel- und Niederrhein 1993 1995 2003

Central Europe 2003, 2005, 2011

Oder 1997 Elbe/LABE 2002 2006 2010

Alpen- und Hochrhein 1999 2005 2007 Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt Workshop on European

Donau 1999 2002 2005 2006

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Objectives – Water Quantity

Monitoring of water resources Climate impact studies Short to medium range forecasts (low water) Seasonal predictions Understanding hydrological processes


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Forecasting Systems BfG Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz Low flow Forecasting Rhein und Donau

Hochwassermeldezentrum Rhein, Mainz (WSV + RLP) WAVOS Saar Flood forecasting Rhein

HochwasserVorhersagezentrale Frankfurt (Oder) (BB) HW- + werktägliche Vorhersage Grenzoder

Vorhersagezent rale Elbe, Magdeburg (WSV + ST) NW-/MW- und HWVorhersage Elbe u. Saale

HochwasserVorhersagezentrale Main, Hof (BY) HW- + werktägliche Vorhersage Main


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Background: Operational Service  7 gauging stations  Forecasting horizon: +96 hours (since 2008)

 Forecasting time: 7:00  Daily Forecast: Water level at gauge Duisburg-Ruhrort  400cm (begin of severe restrictions for navigation)

 Dissemination via email and Internet (ELWIS) till 08:30


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Background: Forecasting System HBV-Model (in FEWS) - Hourly model, new calibration - operated in FEWS-BfG - export at 14 locations (lateral input to SOBEK) SOBEK-Model (in WAVOS) - new calibration, current retention measures - no dike overtopping Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

River Forecast station Lateral Input Hydrodynamic Model Stretch Hydrological Model districts slide 8

Shortcomings/Points of action: Uncertainties of snow modelling 4000

Winter 2010/2011 3500

Main / Pegel Raunheim (Messung) 3000

Main / Pegel Raunheim (HBV aktuell) Main / Pegel Raunheim (HBV Variante1)

Q [m³/s]

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 09/09/2010

29/09/2010

19/10/2010

08/11/2010

28/11/2010

18/12/2010

07/01/2011

27/01/2011

16/02/2011

Datum


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Shortcomings/Points of action: Uncertainties of snow modelling 160

140

Snow Main (HBV-IST)

Snow Total Water Content [mm]

Snow Main (HBV-V1) 120

100

80

60

40

20

0 29/09/2010

24/10/2010

18/11/2010

13/12/2010

07/01/2011

01/02/2011

26/02/2011

Datum


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H-SAF • Production of satellite derived estimates of rainfall snow soil moisture • Validation of H-SAF products versus in situ measurements • Hydrological Validation of H-SAF products by data assimilation & hydrological modelling Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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H-SAF SNOW Products Name

Content

SN-OBS-1

Snow detection by VIS/IR H-SAF H10

Geometry & resolution Meteosat projection 5 km

Data source Format

Period

H-SAF FTP

HDF5

10/2010 – 10/2011 (OR)

SN-OBS-2 Snow status H-SAF H11 (dry/wet) by MW

Lat./long. 0.25 deg

H-SAF FTP

grib

10/2010 – 10/2011 (OR)

SN-OBS-3 H-SAF H12

Lat./long. 0.05 deg

H-SAF FTP

grib

10/2009 – 09/2010 (ORR)

Snow water Lat./long. equivalent by 0.25 deg MW

H-SAF FTP

grib

10/2009 – 09/2010 (ORR)

SN-OBS-4

H-SAF H13

Effective snow cover by VIS/IR


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Station data (DWD) • Snow depth

(n ~1000 +1000)

Station height in meter (above sea-level)

Figure 1: Spatial distribution of the DWD station measurements for snow (SD) for the year 2010-2011. (2067 Stations)


• Snow water equivalent (n ~600) • Air temperature for delineation of snow status (dry / wet) slide 13

Polar View Products Products

Examples (image product available via Polar View User FTP)

Geometry

Name and

and

description

Resolution

Polar View

Lat / Lon LCC

Snow Cover

0.0125 deg

(SWK)

Operational products: River Rhine coverage (2010-2011)

Snow detection by AVHRR

Additional products: • SWE results „Upper Danube“ • WET-snow detection Demo Germany


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Comparision H10 & Polar View

POD FAR POFD ACC CSI HSS

H10

Polar View

Flat and Mountain 0.861 0.183 0.016 0.975 0.722 0.825

Flat and Mountain 0.971 0.100 0.008 0.991 0.876 0.929


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Example Case Studies Date

5.1.2011

8.1.2011

10.1.2011

H10

H10

H10

H10

H11

H11

H11


H11

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Hydrological Validation Precipitation (different time and spatial scales) H-SAF Satellite products SYNOP station data LT

RADOLAN radar data

SYNOP station data Precip.

REGNIE SYNOP raster data

Accumulation over 24 hours and aggregation to subbasins area means

Initial Conditions SP, SM,…

Rainfall-runoff-model: HBV Rhine 1d simulated discharge snow soil water

simulated discharge snow soil water



observed discharge

H-SAF derived and in situ measured precipitation data-sets were cumulated over 24h and aggregated to subbasin area means as forcing for the HBV conceptual hydrological model operated in daily mode Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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Hydrological Validation Catchment: River Rhine Area: 185,300 km² Length: 1233 km

Elevations: 100 to 3600 m a.s.l. Land cover: • forest (33%) • meadows & agricultural crop lands (28%) • pasture (27%) • built-up areas & roads (6%)

• water, vineyards & fruit growing, fallow & bare ground and glaciers (< 5%) Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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Hydrological Validation Hydrological Model: e.g. HBV-SMHI

PER 

d SWE  SM  UZ  LZ  dt

P

precipitation

E R SWE SM UZ LZ lakes

evapotranspiration

runoff snow water equivalent soil moisture upper runoff zone lower runoff zone lake volume


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Example Reference run 120

0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0

100

SWE [mm]

80

60

40

20

0 01.01.2010 01.04.2010 30.06.2010 28.09.2010 27.12.2010

SWE

FSCA [-]

Schwuerbitz/Main (HBV134-SYNOP)

27.03.2011 25.06.2011 23.09.2011 22.12.2011

FSCA


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Next Step DA (station and sat. data) Schwuerbitz/Main (HBV134-SYNOP) 500

0

450

25

400 50 300

75

250

100

200

125

SWE [mm]

Q [m³/s]

350

150 150 100 175

50 0 01.11.2010

200 01.12.2010

31.12.2010 Q_sim

Q_0bs

30.01.2011

SWE_sim


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User Requirements • Define generic user groups and identify general requirements e.g. – Advanced User (quantitative use, proc. level 1) – Intermediate User (quantitative & qualitative use, – Informative User

processing level 2) (qualitative use, proc. level 3)

• Further general requirements physical feasible products spatial & temporal resolution availability (e. g. cloud coverage) & thematic issue


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Thank you for your attention


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Outlook From HBV134 to LARSIM-ME

From daily to hourly model Framework for Assimilating - Discharge (gauging stations) – Soil moisture data – Snow data Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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Large Area SIMulation Model


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Hydrological Validation H-SAF Products 134 subbasins  ~100 basins Selection of basins and sub basins 7 gauges at River Rhine river (~ 100,000 km²)

11 gauges of Rhine river tributaries (~ 20,000 km²)

48 gauges head water catchments ( ~ 1,500 km²) Workshop on European Satellite Snow Monitoring Perspectives, 4. – 5.12.2012, Darmstadt

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Reference run 500

0

450

5

400

10

350

15

300

20

250

25

200

30

150

35

100

40

50

45

0

50

01.01.2010

01.04.2010

30.06.2010

28.09.2010

27.12.2010

27.03.2011

Q_sim

Q_0bs

P_total

25.06.2011


23.09.2011

P [mm/d]

Q [m³/s]

Schwuerbitz/Main (HBV134-SYNOP)

22.12.2011

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Reference run River Rhine basin (HBV134-SYNOP) 120

100

SWE [mm]

80

60

40

20

0 01.01.2010

01.04.2010

30.06.2010

SWE-Blies

28.09.2010

27.12.2010

SWE-Kocher

27.03.2011

SWE-Main

25.06.2011

23.09.2011

22.12.2011

SWE-Lahn


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River basins of Central Europe


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