Hydropower Potential in Pakistan F. U. Qureshi1, B. Akıntuğ2 1
Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems Graduate Program, Middle East Technical University – Northern Cyprus Campus, Güzelyurt (N. Cyprus), Mersin 10, Turkey. e-mail:
[email protected] 2
Civil Engineering Program, Middle East Technical University – Northern Cyprus Campus, Güzelyurt (N. Cyprus), Mersin 10, Turkey. e-mail:
[email protected]
Abstract Water and energy are the prime needs of human beings living on the earth. The burning of fossil fuels for the production of electricity releases vast amount of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere due to which global warming and sea level are on the rise and has eventually caused the human civilization to suffer. Water resources can be used for irrigation purpose and also be utilized to produce electricity in the form of hydropower. Though Pakistan is deficient in oil and gas but it has a vast potential of hydropower, coal, wind, and solar energy resources. It is estimated that Pakistan has hydropower potential of about 60,000 MW but only 11% of it is utilized for the production of electricity and the remaining potential is still untapped. According to the data analyzed in this paper, the share of hydropower can become more than 40% and indigenous energy resources as a whole can contribute up to 80.7% in the supply mix for electricity production in Pakistan by the year 2030. At the same time the share of oil and gas which is currently more than 64% can be reduced to 11.8% percent which is favorable for the sustainable development of the country. Keywords: Hydropower potential, Sustainable Development, Water, Energy, Pakistan.
1 Introduction Energy which is often known as the catalyst of socioeconomic development as per capita energy consumption, is used as barometer to know the development of the state in all important aspects. As the world electricity demand is growing at an enormous pace of 93% in next 30 years, increasing from 20.2 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2010 to 39 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2040, the role of hydropower resources will be very important, since they will be major source of renewable energy in the future (US Energy Information Administration [US-EIA], 2013). Figure 1 shows the world net renewable electricity production in 2010 which was 4175 billion kilowatt-hours. In this figure, we can easily recognize the importance of hydropower representing more than 80 percent of world net renewable electricity production in 2010. So the global importance of hydropower industry cannot be denied in the present world. It is a fact that significance of hydropower plants is increasing in the world as the burning of fossil fuels is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere which is not sustainable for the environment and human beings.
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0.81% 8.19%
1.59%
Hydropower (3402 billion kWh)
7.95%
Wind (342 billion kWh)
81.48%
Geothermal (66 billion kWh) Solar (34 billion kWh) Other (332 billion kWh)
Figure 1. World renewable net electricity production in 2010 (US-EIA, 2013). Pakistan is facing severe energy crises nowadays, particularly electricity crises, because the gap between its demand and supply has been increased significantly in the past several years. In the past era of 1960s, hydropower, one of the most important indigenous resource, was used to produce electricity in Pakistan and its contribution towards electricity production was almost 70%. But nowadays its share has reduced to 30% as the country is mainly dependent upon fossil fuels to meet its electricity requirements which is not good for the sustainable development of the country (Muneer and Asif, 2007). Various studies have been done to examine the role of hydropower using various approaches in different parts of the world. For example, Yüksel, (2010) examined the role of hydropower for water and sustainable energy development and described water potential and dams in Turkey. Similarly, Bhutto, et al., (2012) described regional development of hydel energy and then reported hydropower in Pakistan electricity sector. On the other hand, Paish, (2002) analyzed the role of small hydropower, its technology and current status and outlined the barriers to small hydropower development projects in Europe. At another instance Siddiqi et al., (2012) carried out an empirical analysis for hydropower portfolio in Pakistan. The review of literature highlights many important points. Firstly, the hydropower is one of the most important and sustainable renewable energy source for electricity production. Secondly, the role of both large and small scale hydropower projects should be examined with equal importance because small scale hydropower like run-off river projects have a minimum impact on ecological services as compared to large dams which are sometimes not good for environment. Finally, public acceptance and water politics play an important role in the development of hydropower projects in any region of the world. One important gap found in literature was that no one analyzed the future projects of Pakistan with respect to its potential and developed a sustainable energy mix model for electricity production which is mainly studied in this paper. The paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, the potential analysis of both large scale and small scale future projects of Pakistan is given. In Section 3, we presented diversified and sustainable supply mix model for electricity production in Pakistan in which Hydropower plays a dominant role. In Section 4, the main conclusions of the paper are given.
2 Potential Analysis of Hydropower Resources in Pakistan There is a significant hydropower potential in Pakistan. Many projects have been deployed in the past to utilize this potential but still most of the hydropower sites has not been developed yet. The total installed capacity of hydropower resources until 2010 was 6,720 MW (Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan [MOF-GOP], 2013) which is only 11% of the total hydropower potential of Pakistan because the total proved hydropower potential of Pakistan is 60,000 MW (Water and Power Development Authority [WAPDA], 2013). Figure 2 presents categorization of hydropower potential in terms of available basins, rivers, and small hydel potential sites available in the country. The Indus River Basin contains almost 75% of all hydropower potential in Pakistan. In Figure 3, we can see several regions of Pakistan like Sindh, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa etc. and the location of dams and rivers in these regions.
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7.70%
3.80%
Indus River basin (44334 MW) Jehlum River basin (8027 MW)
13.60%
74.90%
Swat and Chitral River (4582 MW) Small Hydel (2208 MW)
Figure 2. Distribution of hydropower potential in Pakistan (WAPDA, 2013).
Figure 3. Hydel Map of Pakistan (OOSKAnews, 2012).
2.1 Large Scale Hydropower Projects in Pakistan and Their Respective Potential The history related with the construction of large scale hydropower projects in Pakistan starts with the Indus water treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 (WAPDA, 2013). From Table 1, it can be seen that a lot of feasibility studies and engineering design work has been carried out to explore the hydropower potential in Pakistan. In order to save the country from the significant shortfall of electricity, the only need is to implement these mega projects for the sustainable production of the electricity in the future. Pakistan is facing severe and worst ever electricity crises nowadays with a shortfall of almost 6,000 MW in the year 2011-2012 as the demand was 18,876 MW and supply remained 12,775 MW (MOF-GOP, 2013). By deploying all these projects enlisted in Table 1, the electricity production of the country can be increased to a vast amount which is good for both industrial, commercial, and agriculture sectors of the country. On the other hand, since hydropower does not defile or consume water to generate electricity, it leaves this important available resource for other uses as well. Besides electricity production, hydropower dams support other essential water services such as flood control and irrigation services.
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Table 1. Large Scale Hydropower projects of Pakistan that are under implementation or can be taken under consideration till 2030 ( WAPDA, 2013) No
Name of Project
Installed Capacity (MW)
1
Neelum Jhelum AJK
969
2
Diamar Basha -Diamar/Kohistan
4500
3
Bunji-Astore
7100
4
Dasu-Kohistan
4320
5
Terbela.4th Extension-Swabi
1400
6
Munda-Muhamend Agency
740
7
Lower Spat-Gah Kohistan
496
8
Lower Palas Valley Kohistan
665
9
Patan
2800
10
Thakot
2800
11
Kheyal Khawar –KPK
122
12
Golen Gol Project-KPK
106
13
th
Tarbela.5 Extension Swabi
500
14
Akhori Dam- Punjab
600
15
Yulbu dam
2800
16
Shyok (Yugo) Project
520
17
Skardu Dam Project
1600
18
Tungus Hydropower Project
2200
19
Dudhnial Hydropower Project
960
20
Suki-Kinari Hydropower Project
840
21
Kundal Shahi Hydropower Project
700
22
Rajdhani Hydropower
132
23
Mahl Hydropower Project
600
24
Kala Bagh Dam
3800 Total: 41270
2.2 Small Scale Hydropower Resources in Pakistan and Their Respective Potential As environmental scientists are also concerned about the hydropower development and their impact on local fishery and riverine ecosystems, small hydropower development provides the best alternative solution having no carbon emissions and negligible environmental footprint. There is no fixed international definition of small hydropower. The limit of small hydropower varies in the world. In China, the limit for small hydropower is 25 MW (Bartle, 2002). A different classification is found in Balat, (2006) where small hydropower varies between 500 kW and 50 MW. In Pakistan many small hydropower exists and are now in operation. It can be seen from Table 2 that there is a small scale hydropower potential of 868 MW in Pakistan.
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Table 2. Small scale hydel power projects of Pakistan that are under implementation process (MOF-GOP, 2013). Region/Regions
Responsible Stakeholder
No. of
Installed Capacity
Projects
(MW)
Punjab
Government of Punjab Pakistan
10
142
Punjab
AEDB* Pakistan
30
240
Punjab
Government of Pakistan
5
24
Gilgit Baltistan
Government of Pakistan
2
30
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
AEDB Pakistan
22
92
Punjab, KPK, AK&K, Sindh
AEDB Pakistan
25
284
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Government of Pakistan
3
56 Total: 868
* AEDB: Alternative Energy Development Board
3 Hydro-power as a Sustainable Energy Resource for Electricity Production in Pakistan Government of Pakistan has made a long term plan to ensure the energy security of the country with major emphasis on indigenous energy resources. In this plan, all the energy resources are utilized to meet the growing energy needs of the country. According to this plan 17,400 MW of wind energy, 6,500 MW of solar energy which includes solar thermal, on grid and off grid solar are included in the total supply mix of the country at any cost till the year 2022-2023 (MOF-GOP, 2009). For the production of nuclear power, government has mandated Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission for the production of 8,800 MW capacities by the year 2030 (MOF-GOP, 2013). Pakistan has about 100,000 MW of coal potential but unfortunately it is utilizing only a small percentage of indigenous coal due to lack of modern technology and the country import coal to meet its energy needs. Therefore, the energy expert group of Pakistan has set a target to utilize 14,000 MW of coal till 2030 (MOFGOP, 2009). System demand is expected to grow from 25,919 MW in 2013-14 to 84,832 MW in 2029-30 which is a huge demand and current energy mix which is mainly dependent upon oil and gas will certainly fail to fulfil this huge system demand in the future (National Transmission and Dispatch Company Limited, Pakistan, 2008). Figure 4 shows the projection of all energy supply mix potential if all the projects discussed in this paper are deployed. From Figure 4 and 5(a), we can see that all the energy resources can generate a gross installed capacity of 118,268 MW of power in the year 2030 in which hydropower has 40.5% share and indigenous energy resources of Pakistan as a whole represents 80.7% and the share of oil and gas is reduced only to 11.8% as compared to the Figure 5(b) which shows the total gross installed capacity in 2010 was only 20,932 MW of Pakistan in which oil and gas has 66.80%. 60000 Hydropower (MW) 50000
47990
Wind
Solar (MW)
40000
MW
Indigeneous Coal (MW) 30000 20000 10000
Cross Border Power Trade Projects (MW) Nuclear (MW)
17400
14000 6500
13978
7100 8800
Waste to Energy (MW) 1000 1500
0
Small Hydel (MW)
Oil and gas (MW)
Different Energy Sources
Figure 4. : Projected gross installed capacity of different energy sources that will contribute in 2030 (Total: 118,268 MW).
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Oil and gas 11.84%
2.20%, Nuclear
Nuclear 7.45% Hydropower 40.48%
Cross Power Trade 6.01% Biomass 1.27% Wind 14.74% Solar Small Hydel 5.51% 0.85%
30.97%, Hydropower 66.80%, Oil,gas,coal and imported
Indigeneous coal 11.86%
(a) Projected percentage of different fuel shares (b) Percentage of fuel shares for 2010 (Hydrocarbon for the year 2030 Development Institute of Pakistan, 2010) Figure 5: Comparison between projected gross installed capacity of diversified model for the year 2030 and gross installed capacity of 2010 for Pakistan.
4 Conclusion This study investigates the potential of hydropower in Pakistan and tries to explain that both small scale and large scale hydropower projects are necessary for the sustainable development in Pakistan. If Pakistan utilizes the potential of its hydropower and other renewable energy resources, it can get rid of oil import bill and the problem of electricity crises can be resolved at the same time. Some of the ecosystem services are disturbed by the construction of large hydropower projects but still it is largely carbon free, cheap, and reliable source of producing electricity and considered better than fossil fuels. The passage towards the sustainable energy future in Pakistan is very complex and complicated but a solution obviously exists. In this regard, diversified and indigenous energy mix for electricity production can present the best possible solution where hydropower can be the major source of electricity production for the energy starved country like Pakistan.
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