A meta-âanalysis of online ad spend in Europe. RATECARD .... Share of European online revenue by market ..... Average
IAB Europe Adex Benchmark 2013 Daniel Knapp Director Adver=sing Research IHS
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ABOUT THE STUDY
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A meta-‐analysis of online ad spend in Europe
GROSS
Revenue Billed
NET
Revenue Billed No Agency commissions @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014
RATECARD
Campaigns x Ratecard
Submissions from 26 European countries • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Croa=a Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
Netherlands Norway Poland Russia Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014
Added format granularity & context
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BIG PICTURE & CONTEXT
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The value of online adver=sing in 2013
€27.3bn @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014
2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1
Eurozone economy is coming out of a double-‐dip recession GDP Growth in Europe (%)
Eurozone GDP Growth France GDP Growth Italy GDP Growth
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6
4
2
0
-‐2
-‐4
-‐6
Germany GDP Growth
-‐8
Double-‐digit growth in online adver=sing in 2013 Total online adver8sing (€bn) 35 30 25
11.9% like-‐for-‐like € 24.4
€ 27.3
20 15 10 5 0 2012
2013 @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014
A historical perspec=ve Total online adver8sing spend (€bn)* 35 30
€ 27.3 € 24.4
25
€ 21.9 € 18.8
20 € 14.5
15 10
€ 15.8
€ 9.2
€ 6.6
5 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
* Source: IAB Europe for 2011-‐2013; 2006-‐2011 retropolated based on IHS growth rates
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2012
2013
In a vola=le market environment, online li`ed overall ad spend 2013: adver8sing year-‐on-‐year growth 25%
21.2%
20% 15%
11.5%
10.8%
10% 5%
1.8%
0% WE
-‐5% -‐10%
-‐2.5%
-‐2.5%
CEE
Total Europe -‐1.7% -‐6.7%
-‐7.8% Total excl. online
Online
Total
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Despite economic turmoil, online grew its ad spend per capita steadily since 2006
Ad spend per capita (€) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006
2007
2008
2009 TV
Online
2010 Print
Other media
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2011
2012
2013
Due to weak 2013 for all other media, online strengthened its posi=on as it approaches TV Ad spend by category in Europe in 2013 (€bn) TV
32.3
Online
27.3
Newspapers
20.0
Magazines
9.1
OOH
7.6
Radio
5.2
Cinema
0.7 0
5
10
15
20
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25
30
35
However, no one online category has yet surpassed Newspapers ad spend Ad spend by category in Europe in 2013 (€bn) TV Online Newspapers
Display Classifieds & Directories
Magazines
Search
OOH Radio Cinema 0
5
10
15
20
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25
30
35
Over half of all European ad spend comes from three markets Share of European online revenue by market 100% 86.6% 86.4%
90%
77.9% 78.2%
80% 70% 60%
69.4% 69.9% 57.3% 56.9%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Top 3
Top 5
2012
2013
Top 7
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Top 10
A`er a tough year, Sweden increases in rank, helped by economic crisis in Spain
Netherlands Sweden
2012
2013
589 628
Italy
618 709
Russia
1,000
911 901
2,000
859 955
3,000
1,199 1,312
4,000
1,503 1,703
5,000
1,454 1,843
6,000
3,343 3,494
4,253 4,676
7,000
6,383 7,381
8,000
Total online ad spend (€m)
Spain
Norway
Denmark
0 UK
Germany
France
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Growth drivers
Social media Video Rich media Mobile internet penetra8on increasing across all of Europe Programma8c and RTB come into the mainstream E-‐commerce driving C&D growth @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014
Growth hurdles AQrac8ng brand spend online Measurement Mobile Video inventory – s8ll very limited TV dominance in some European markets Data literacy Regula8on @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014
0% -‐5%
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-‐2.0%
-‐1.1%
3.0%
4.3%
6.2%
6.6%
6.9%
4.5%
5%
9.4%
10%
9.8%
10.0%
10.7%
10.9%
11.1%
11.4%
11.9%
12.9%
13.0%
13.3%
13.4%
15.7%
16.0%
14.7%
15%
16.2%
20%
17.3%
25%
Online ad growth like-‐for-‐like (yoy) 24.3%
30%
26.8%
Mix of CEE and WE markets above European average; Russia and Turkey only 2 markets above 20%
40%
Bubble size: market value in €m
35%
Russia
30%
Online ad market growth
25% Turkey
20% 15%
Slovakia Serbia
Austria
Hungary
Czech Republic Switzerland Italy Romania Poland 10% Germany Ireland Greece Sweden Finland Croa=a 5% Netherlands France Belgium Bulgaria Spain
Norway
UK
Denmark
0% -‐5%
-‐
Slovenia
20
40
60
80
Online ad spend per capita (€)
-‐10%
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100
120
Uniform growth paferns in 2013 Online adver8sing growth year-‐on-‐year (%) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -‐10%
0
5
10
15
-‐20% 2012
2013
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20
25
30
The range of growth is converging across Europe Online adver8sing growth year-‐on-‐year (%) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -‐5%
2012
2013
-‐10%
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FORMATS
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Accelera=on in Display growth, Display and Search drove online ad spend in 2013
Year-‐on-‐year growth (%) 18%
15.5%
14.9%
16%
13.0%
14% 12% 10%
11.5% 11.9%
9.1%
8%
6.3%
6%
3.6%
4% 2% 0% Display
Classifieds & Directories 2012
Paid-‐for-‐search 2013
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Total
Search and Display grow their share at the expense of Classifieds & Directories
Format shares of total online 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
34.1%
36.6%
36.6%
18.3%
14.9%
18.9%
2006
2007 Display
2008
47.3%
48.0%
47.1%
48.8%
49.2%
19.8%
20.7%
19.6%
18.5%
16.8%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Classifieds & Directories
Paid-‐for-‐search
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Other
0% -‐5% -‐10%
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-‐5.4%
-‐3.1%
-‐2.0%
-‐0.7%
-‐0.2%
2.7%
4.8%
4.9%
5.2%
24.9%
25.9%
5%
8.1%
8.7%
9.3%
11.4%
12.3%
12.4%
13.4%
15.9%
13.4%
9.3%
10%
14.9%
15%
18.7%
20%
24.7%
25%
28.0%
30%
Display adver8sing growth year-‐on-‐year (%) 28.3%
35%
32.3%
A renaissance of Display adver=sing: mature markets saw strongest growth in 2013
Online video is now a significant part of Display adver=sing
0%
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2.2%
2.9%
2.9%
5.4%
8.1%
10.3%
4.5%
5%
8.8%
10%
11.0%
11.7%
12.7%
13.1%
13.5%
15.0%
15.2%
15.3%
16.2%
14.4%
15%
16.2%
20%
19.1%
25%
20.5%
30%
20.5%
35%
29.0%
Video share of Display
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4.3%
20.0%
24.1%
24.6%
26.4%
29.3%
32.0%
39.7%
40.5%
45.4%
46.4%
50.0%
52.0%
54.4%
60.0%
62.6%
70.2%
70.6%
71.3%
Online video growth year-‐on-‐year (%) 75.4%
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
94.1%
Growth in video strong, but no country achieves triple-‐digit growth
Video ad spend mirrors total online ad spend ranking
356.6
400
Online video ad spend (€m)
350
0
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0.8
1.7
3.3
4.0
8.8
9.1
9.6
10.9
12.7
16.8
25.1
28.2
29.4
34.8
43.9
50
80.7
100
85.6
150
132.3
200
139.0
250
153.0
300
Mobile now has a double-‐digit share of online display
0%
2012
2013
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0.7%
1.2%
1.4%
2.1%
2.2%
2.8%
3.1%
3.4%
4.6%
5%
4.9%
5.0%
5.4%
6.7%
8.7%
9.0%
9.2%
9.2%
9.5%
10%
11.5%
15%
13.5%
20%
16.4%
25%
25.1%
30%
Mobile display as a share of total Display
0% -‐5% -‐10%
Display including mobile
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-‐5.4%
-‐3.1%
-‐2.0%
-‐0.2%
2.7%
4.8%
5%
5.2%
9.3%
11.4%
12.4%
13.4%
15.9%
9.3%
10%
13.4%
15%
18.7%
20%
24.7%
25%
Display year-‐on-‐year growth (%) 25.9%
30%
28.3%
35%
32.3%
This is more evident…
…when we remove Mobile from Display Display year-‐on-‐year growth (%) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -‐5% -‐10%
Display including mobile
Display without mobile
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Mobile is most important growth engine for online display
European Display with mobile: +14.9%
European Display without mobile: +1.1%
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-‐20% -‐30%
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-‐20.5%
-‐18.7%
-‐16.2%
-‐7.3%
-‐3.4%
-‐2.1%
-‐2.0%
-‐1.7%
-‐1.7%
20.0%
-‐10%
-‐0.6%
2.0%
3.3%
3.6%
3.6%
4.3%
4.9%
5.6%
8.4%
6.8%
-‐0.2%
0%
9.4%
10%
11.5%
20%
24.8%
30%
Classifieds & Directories year-‐on-‐year growth (%) 26.1%
40%
30.3%
Classifieds & Directories struggled in 2013 with 11 countries experiencing decline
Con=nued growth in Paid-‐for-‐search shows the success of the format
0% -‐5%
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-‐2.0%
1.1%
3.7%
4.7%
5.2%
5.5%
6.0%
3.7%
5%
6.0%
10%
9.7%
12.0%
13.0%
13.5%
13.6%
15.0%
18.2%
18.5%
20.8%
18.9%
14.3%
15%
19.0%
20%
20.9%
25%
22.3%
30%
26.1%
35%
26.6%
40%
34.4%
Paid-‐for-‐search year-‐on-‐year growth (%)
Like in Display, Mobile is now a significant driver of Paid-‐for-‐search Mobile search as a share of Paid-‐for-‐search (%) 30% 25%
25.3% 20.0%
20%
16.8%
15%
12.6%
12.4% 9.8%
10%
9.0% 4.5%
5%
2.4%
0% Ireland
Austria
UK
Europe
Sweden
Germany
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France
Hungary
Spain
OUTLOOK
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By 2020, we expect there to be 2bn connected devices across Europe Europe: Installed connected devices (m) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
Source: IHS
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-‐
2005
500
With growth driven by smartphones, tablets and smart TVs Europe: Installed connected devices (m)
Source: IHS
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-‐
2009
500
2008
1,000
2007
1,500
2006
2,000
Digital media adapters Pay TV set-‐top boxes FTA set-‐top boxes BD players Smart TVs PCs Game consoles Tablets Smartphones
2005
2,500
What this means is that there will be a huge increase in very small screens, sub-‐15”
Screen size (diagonal inches)
Average Screen Size by 5" category 110"-‐114" 90"-‐94" 80"-‐84" 70"-‐74" 60"-‐64" 50"-‐54" 40"-‐44" 30"-‐34" 20"-‐24" 10"-‐14" 0"-‐4" 0
200 2019
Source: IHS
400 600 Shipments (m)
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800 2012
1000
1200
Thank you! Ques=ons?
Daniel Knapp @_dknapp
[email protected]
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