IAB Europe Adex Benchmark 2013

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Netherlands. • Norway ... OOH. Magazines. Newspapers. Online. TV. Ad spend by category in Europe in 2013 (€bn) ... T
IAB  Europe  Adex  Benchmark  2013     Daniel  Knapp   Director  Adver=sing  Research  IHS  

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ABOUT  THE  STUDY  

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A  meta-­‐analysis  of  online  ad  spend  in  Europe  

GROSS  

Revenue  Billed  

NET  

Revenue  Billed     No  Agency   commissions   @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014

RATECARD  

Campaigns  x   Ratecard    

Submissions  from  26  European  countries   •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Austria   Belgium   Bulgaria   Czech  Republic   Croa=a   Denmark   Finland   France   Germany   Greece   Hungary   Ireland   Italy  

•  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Netherlands   Norway   Poland   Russia   Romania   Serbia   Slovakia   Slovenia   Spain   Sweden   Switzerland   Turkey   UK   @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014

Added  format  granularity  &  context  

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BIG  PICTURE  &  CONTEXT  

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The  value  of  online  adver=sing  in  2013  

€27.3bn   @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014

2004  Q1   2004  Q2   2004  Q3   2004  Q4   2005  Q1   2005  Q2   2005  Q3   2005  Q4   2006  Q1   2006  Q2   2006  Q3   2006  Q4   2007  Q1   2007  Q2   2007  Q3     2007  Q4   2008  Q1   2008  Q2   2008  Q3   2008  Q4   2009  Q1   2009  Q2   2009  Q3   2009  Q4   2010  Q1   2010  Q2   2010  Q3   2010  Q4   2011  Q1   2011  Q2   2011  Q3   2011  Q4   2012  Q1   2012  Q2   2012  Q3   2012  Q4   2013  Q1   2013  Q2   2013  Q3   2013  Q4   2014  Q1  

Eurozone  economy  is  coming  out  of  a  double-­‐dip  recession   GDP  Growth  in  Europe  (%)  

Eurozone  GDP  Growth     France  GDP  Growth     Italy  GDP  Growth  

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6  

4  

2  

0  

-­‐2  

-­‐4  

-­‐6  

Germany  GDP  Growth    

-­‐8  

Double-­‐digit  growth  in  online  adver=sing  in  2013   Total  online  adver8sing  (€bn)   35   30   25  

11.9%  like-­‐for-­‐like   €  24.4  

€  27.3  

20   15   10   5   0   2012  

2013   @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014

A  historical  perspec=ve   Total  online  adver8sing  spend  (€bn)*   35   30  

€  27.3   €  24.4  

25  

€  21.9   €  18.8  

20   €  14.5  

15   10  

€  15.8  

€  9.2  

€  6.6  

5   0   2006  

2007  

2008  

2009  

2010  

2011  

*  Source:  IAB  Europe  for  2011-­‐2013;  2006-­‐2011  retropolated  based  on  IHS  growth  rates  

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2012  

2013  

In  a  vola=le  market  environment,  online  li`ed  overall  ad  spend   2013:  adver8sing  year-­‐on-­‐year  growth   25%  

21.2%  

20%   15%  

11.5%  

10.8%  

10%   5%  

1.8%  

0%   WE  

-­‐5%   -­‐10%  

-­‐2.5%  

-­‐2.5%  

CEE  

Total  Europe   -­‐1.7%   -­‐6.7%  

-­‐7.8%   Total  excl.  online  

Online  

Total  

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Despite  economic  turmoil,  online  grew  its  ad  spend  per  capita  steadily  since  2006  

Ad  spend  per  capita  (€)   80   70   60   50   40   30   20   10   0   2006  

2007  

2008  

2009   TV  

Online  

2010   Print  

Other  media  

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2011  

2012  

2013  

Due  to  weak  2013  for  all  other  media,  online  strengthened  its  posi=on  as  it   approaches  TV   Ad  spend  by  category  in  Europe  in  2013  (€bn)   TV  

32.3  

Online  

27.3  

Newspapers  

20.0  

Magazines  

9.1  

OOH  

7.6  

Radio  

5.2  

Cinema  

0.7   0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

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25  

30  

35  

However,  no  one  online  category  has  yet  surpassed  Newspapers  ad  spend   Ad  spend  by  category  in  Europe  in  2013  (€bn)   TV  

32.3  

Online  

9.2  

Newspapers  

20.0  

Magazines  

Display   Classifieds  &  Directories  

9.1  

OOH  

Search  

7.6  

Radio  

5.2  

Cinema   0.7   0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

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25  

30  

35  

Over  half  of  all  European  ad  spend  comes  from  three  markets   Share  of  European  online  revenue  by  market   100%   86.6%   86.4%  

90%  

77.9%   78.2%  

80%   70%   60%  

69.4%   69.9%   57.3%   56.9%  

50%   40%   30%   20%   10%   0%   Top  3  

Top  5  

2012  

2013  

Top  7  

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Top  10  

A`er  a  tough  year,  Sweden  increases  in  rank,  helped  by  economic  crisis  in  Spain  

Total  online  ad  spend  (€m)   8,000  

7,381  

7,000   6,000   4,676  

5,000  

3,494  

4,000   3,000  

1,843  

2,000  

1,703  

1,312  

1,000  

955  

901  

709  

628  

0   UK  

Germany  

France  

Russia  

Italy  

Netherlands   Sweden  

2012  

2013  

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Spain  

Norway  

Denmark  

Growth  drivers  

Social  media   Video     Rich  media   Mobile  internet  penetra8on  increasing  across  all  of  Europe   Programma8c  and  RTB  come  into  the  mainstream   E-­‐commerce  driving  C&D  growth   @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014

Growth  hurdles   AQrac8ng  brand  spend  online   Measurement   Mobile   Video  inventory  –  s8ll  very  limited   TV  dominance  in  some  European  markets   Data  literacy   Regula8on   @IABEU_Interact #Interact2014

Mix  of  CEE  and  WE  markets  above  European  average;  Russia  and  Turkey  only  2   markets  above  20%   Online  ad  growth  like-­‐for-­‐like  (yoy)   30%   25%   20%   15%  

11.9%  

10%   5%   0%   -­‐5%  

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40%  

Bubble  size:  market  value  in  €m  

35%  

Russia  

30%  

Online  ad  market  growth    

25%   Turkey  

20%   15%  

Slovakia   Serbia  

Austria  

Hungary  

Czech  Republic   Switzerland   Italy   Romania   Poland   10%   Germany   Ireland   Greece   Sweden   Finland   Croa=a   5%   Netherlands   France   Belgium   Bulgaria   Spain  

Norway  

UK  

Denmark  

0%   -­‐5%  

 -­‐        

Slovenia  

 20        

 40        

 60        

 80        

Online  ad  spend  per  capita  (€)    

-­‐10%  

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 100        

 120        

Uniform  growth  paferns  in  2013   Online  adver8sing  growth  year-­‐on-­‐year  (%)   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%   0%   -­‐10%  

0  

5  

10  

15  

-­‐20%   2012  

2013  

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20  

25  

30  

The  range  of  growth  is  converging  across  Europe   Online  adver8sing  growth  year-­‐on-­‐year  (%)   40%   35%   30%   25%   20%   15%   10%   5%   0%   -­‐5%  

2012  

2013  

-­‐10%  

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FORMATS  

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Accelera=on  in  Display  growth,  Display  and  Search  drove  online  ad  spend  in  2013  

Year-­‐on-­‐year  growth  (%)   18%  

15.5%  

14.9%  

16%  

13.0%  

14%   12%   10%  

11.5%   11.9%  

9.1%  

8%  

6.3%  

6%  

3.6%  

4%   2%   0%   Display  

Classifieds  &  Directories   2012  

Paid-­‐for-­‐search   2013  

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Total  

Search  and  Display  grow  their  share  at  the  expense  of  Classifieds  &  Directories  

Format  shares  of  total  online   100%   90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%   0%  

34.1%  

36.6%  

36.6%  

18.3%  

14.9%  

18.9%  

2006  

2007   Display  

2008  

47.3%  

48.0%  

47.1%  

48.8%  

49.2%  

19.8%  

20.7%  

19.6%  

18.5%  

16.8%  

2009  

2010  

2011  

2012  

2013  

Classifieds  &  Directories  

Paid-­‐for-­‐search  

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Other  

A  renaissance  of  Display  adver=sing:  mature  markets  saw  strongest  growth  in  2013     Display  adver8sing  growth  year-­‐on-­‐year  (%)   35%   30%   25%   20%   15%  

14.9%  

10%   5%   0%   -­‐5%   -­‐10%  

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Online  video  is  now  a  significant  part  of  Display  adver=sing   Video  share  of  Display   35%   30%   25%   20%   15%  

13.1%  

10%   5%   0%  

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Growth  in  video  strong,  but  no  country  achieves  triple-­‐digit  growth   Online  video  growth  year-­‐on-­‐year  (%)   100%   90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%   0%  

45.4%  

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Video  ad  spend  mirrors  total  online  ad  spend  ranking   Online  video  ad  spend  (€m)   400   350   300   250   200   150   100   50   0  

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Mobile  now  has  a  double-­‐digit  share  of  online  display   Mobile  display  as  a  share  of  total  Display   30%   25%   20%   15%  

11.5%  

10%   5%   0%  

2012  

2013  

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This  is  more  evident…   Display  year-­‐on-­‐year  growth  (%)   35%   30%   25%   20%   15%   10%   5%   0%   -­‐5%   -­‐10%  

Display  including  mobile  

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…when  we  remove  Mobile  from  Display   Display  year-­‐on-­‐year  growth  (%)   35%   30%   25%   20%   15%   10%   5%   0%   -­‐5%   -­‐10%  

Display  including  mobile  

Display  without  mobile  

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Mobile  is  most  important  growth  engine  for  online  display  

European   Display  with   mobile:  +14.9%  

European   Display  without   mobile:  +1.1%  

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Classifieds  &  Directories  struggled  in  2013  with  11  countries  experiencing  decline  

40%  

Classifieds  &  Directories  year-­‐on-­‐year  growth  (%)  

30%   20%   10%  

3.6%  

0%   -­‐10%   -­‐20%   -­‐30%  

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Con=nued  growth  in  Paid-­‐for-­‐search  shows  the  success  of  the  format   Paid-­‐for-­‐search  year-­‐on-­‐year  growth  (%)   40%   35%   30%   25%   20%   15%  

13.0%  

10%   5%   0%   -­‐5%  

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Like  in  Display,  Mobile  is  now  a  significant  driver  of  Paid-­‐for-­‐search   Mobile  search  as  a  share  of  Paid-­‐for-­‐search  (%)   30%   25%   20%   15%  

12.6%  

10%   5%   0%   Ireland  

Austria  

UK  

Europe  

Sweden  

Germany  

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France  

Hungary  

Spain  

OUTLOOK  

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By  2020,  we  expect  there  to  be  2bn  connected  devices  across  Europe   Europe:  Installed  connected  devices  (m)    2,500      2,000      1,500      1,000    

Source:  IHS  

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2020  

2019  

2018  

2017  

2016  

2015  

2014  

2013  

2012  

2011  

2010  

2009  

2008  

2007  

2006  

 -­‐        

2005  

 500    

With  growth  driven  by  smartphones,  tablets  and  smart  TVs   Europe:  Installed  connected  devices  (m)  

Source:  IHS  

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2020  

2019  

2018  

2017  

2016  

2015  

2014  

2013  

2012  

2011  

2010  

 -­‐        

2009  

 500    

2008  

 1,000    

2007  

 1,500    

2006  

 2,000    

Digital  media  adapters   Pay  TV  set-­‐top  boxes   FTA  set-­‐top  boxes   BD  players   Smart  TVs   PCs   Game  consoles   Tablets   Smartphones  

2005  

 2,500    

What  this  means  is  that  there  will  be  a  huge  increase  in  very  small  screens,  sub-­‐15”  

Screen size (diagonal inches)

Average Screen Size by 5" category 110"-­‐114"   90"-­‐94"   80"-­‐84"   70"-­‐74"   60"-­‐64"   50"-­‐54"   40"-­‐44"   30"-­‐34"   20"-­‐24"   10"-­‐14"   0"-­‐4"   0  

200   2019  

Source:  IHS  

400   600   Shipments (m)

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800   2012  

1000  

1200  

Thank  you!  Ques=ons?  

Daniel  Knapp   @_dknapp   [email protected]  

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