Identifying Tourism Demand

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Where the Bloody Hell Are We? IDENTIFYING ... and an increasing number of people are living by themselves, this association may become problematic.
CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? IDENTIFYING TOURISM DEMAND: THE GOLD COAST AND CAIRNS IN 2020 Petra Glover Monash University National Centre for Australian Studies PO Box 197, Caulfield East Vic 3145, Australia E-mail: [email protected] Bruce Prideaux James Cook University School of Business Studies PO Box 6811, Cairns Mailing Centre, Cairns Qld 4870, Australia E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT Despite long planning horizons in the tourism industry, long-term research into future tourism demand patterns is rare. To address this gap a survey was conducted at Cairns and Coolangatta (Gold Coast) airports amongst 656 domestic tourists to explore their general life expectations and tourism expectations in 2020. Results indicate that respondents expect to have more money available for travel, to travel more frequently and to take longer holidays. While these findings may signify a positive outlook for Australian destinations, the expectation to travel overseas more frequently and to visit destinations that respondents had not previously visited point towards an increasingly competitive environment amongst domestic and overseas destinations and the growing difficulty in attracting repeat customers. Differences in tourism expectations exist between Baby Boomers, Generations X and Generation Y. Those are often related to the family life cycle stage but changing family values are increasing the diversity of demand amongst the younger generations. Keywords: tourism demand, Baby Boomers, Generation X, Generation Y, demographic change, tourism demand expectations

INTRODUCTION Research into the long-term business environment is important in the tourism industry since planning horizons in many sectors of the industry are of necessity quite lengthy. For example, infrastructure to support tourism development, including attractions and accommodation, often requires significant investment and may generate dividends only in the long-term. In the public sector investment in transport, water and other infrastructure requires considerable lead times. One of the challenges for investors in both the public and private sectors is to anticipate potential changes in the volume and type of tourism demand. A key but not only the factor that will shape future demand is the composition of the future population. In an era of global trends towards declining fertility and ageing populations the demand for tourism products will change in line with key population indices such as family size, working hours, age of retirement and age of death. Previous studies (Freysinger 1999; Godbey 2003; Rapoport, Rapoport & Strelitz 1975) into these issues have used the life cycle model as a key benchmark against which to measure change. Recent research (Godbey 2004; Pennington-Gray, Fridgen & Stynes 2003) has identified generations as a plausible indicator of change, particularly as generation groups move through their personal life cycle.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? The aim of the research reported upon in this paper is to explore the hypothesis that generation membership is a significant factor in determining future demand patterns in mass tourism destinations. Following a brief review of the literature on future tourism demand and the role of generation groupings in changing demand patterns over time this paper reports on the findings of research into the possible pattern of demand in Coolangatta and Cairns in 2020. Research is based on an airport exit survey undertaken in both destinations. According to McRae (1995), the dominant external force determining business operations and government policies in the future is demographic change. It can be expected that tourism businesses will be no exception. Demographic change is slow and hardly recognisable from one financial year to the next. However, over the course of fifteen years, changes in the age structure and composition of the Australian population can make a significant difference to consumption patterns. Although tourism demand is partly determined by age and the corresponding family situation, in an environment where young couples are reluctant to get married and have children and an increasing number of people are living by themselves, this association may become problematic. For example, today’s 20-35 age group may not have the same travel preferences as the same age group did fifteen years ago due to later marriages and a higher number of single parents. Further, having grown up in different social, political and economic environments and with different opportunities for tourism and travel, the members of older generations are likely to display tourism demand patterns that are different from those of younger generations. To identify the nature of possible differences, this study explores differences in future tourism demand structures between Baby Boomers and Generation’s X and Y. In recent years, growth in the number of affluent and mobile retirees with considerable leisure time available to them has generated an increasing number of studies (Callan & Bowman 2000; Fleischer & Pizam 2002; Huang & Tsai 2003; Kim, Wei & Ruys 2003; Prideaux, Wei & Ruys 2004; Prideaux, Wei & Ruys 2001) that explore the need for tourism products specifically designed for the requirements of the senior market. However, this literature is more concerned with current or near-future markets rather than with considering the medium- to long-term effects of an ageing society on tourism demand. In addition, the emerging interest in the senior travel market has tended to overlook younger market segments although the combined Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y market segments will play a major role in determining tourism demand patterns in the next two or more decades. In addition to age, the tourism demand patterns of specific generations is likely to depend on that generations’ particular beliefs and values as well as factors such as past travel opportunities or travel experience. Since the members of each generation grow up in an environment that differs from the preceding and following generation, it has been suggested that they show similar behaviours, values and attitudes (Eyerman & Turner 1998; Meredith & Schewe 1994; Strauss & Howe 1991). According to Pennington-Grey et al. (2003) values and beliefs remain with the generation over time and continue to influence consumer behaviour including the demand for tourism products and services. In the medium- to long-term, generational differences may prove suitable to provide indications for future tourism demand. However, broad categories of characteristics such as generations may lead to misinterpretation in target marketing as a result of underestimating the range and diversity of the market (Marconi 2001). As a consequence, this study provides an approach that may prove a useful measure for the examination of tourism demand in the long-term to provide some differentiation between consumer groups of a large market that may otherwise be considered as being largely homogenous. In a recent study Prideaux (2004) applied the differences in tourism demand patterns between subsequent generations to Norfolk Island, which presently caters for the current generation of seniors who were born before World War II. Prideaux suggested that different demand curves

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? for the seniors (pre-war generation) and the following generation (Baby Boomers) will eventually lead to a product gap which Norfolk Island will need to address in order to successfully provide tourism products and services that are suitable for its future market. It can be assumed that other destinations may experience to a greater or lesser degree problems similar to those anticipated for Norfolk Island. This research examines the potential future tourism demand of three generations in the year 2020: Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y. While there has been some debate in the literature over the specific start and finish dates for generations the following definitions generally agree with the literature and were adopted for this study. The following definitions apply: • Baby Boomers: anyone born between 1946 and 1965 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004). In 2020, they will be between 55 and 74 years old. • Generation X: anyone born between 1966 and 1977 (Hicks & Hicks 1999). In 2020, they will be between 44 and 54 years old. • Generation Y: anyone born between 1978 and 1998 (Tapscott 1998). In 2020, they will be between 22 and 43 years old. Together these generational groups will constitute the majority of tourists in the year 2020 because they encompass the population that will then be between 22 and 74 years old. However, for ethical reasons, primary research was limited to those domestic tourists who were at least 18 years of age at the time of the survey. This means that Generation Y included only respondents born between 1978 and 1987. METHODOLOGY For the purposes of this research it was decided to examine the demand patterns of two major coastal destinations in Queensland to identify possible differences between these competing destinations and further to examine if any of the differences could be explained by generational membership. Coolangatta and Cairns were chosen as locations for the data collection because they are located in two of the major destination areas for domestic tourists to Queensland; the Gold Coast (second most popular destination after Brisbane in terms of visitor numbers) and Tropical North Queensland (forth most popular destination after the Sunshine Coast) (Tourism Queensland 2006). Both destination areas cater for a wide range of age groups and are easily accessible but offer different attractions. The Sunshine Coast was not chosen since the type of tourism product offered was considered too similar to the Gold Coast. Furthermore, together with Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Tropical North Queensland were the three destination regions in Queensland which achieved the highest overall domestic expenditure in 2006 (Tourism Research Australia 2007). The paper first outlines the results for the two destinations based on life expectations and general tourism expectations before specifically examining the impact of generation membership. The survey was conducted amongst domestic tourists at Coolangatta Airport between 28 December 2005 and 5 January 2006 and at Cairns Airport between 12 and 31 January 2006. The airport was selected as the survey site because the number of passengers allowed for time- and cost-efficient data collection. Furthermore, wet weather in Cairns and difficulty of obtaining permission for data collection at other prime tourist locations on the Gold Coast hindered access to other sites. Departing passengers were asked to participate by completing a short questionnaire of approximately ten minutes’ duration. A total of 665 surveys were collected. Since questionnaires were only handed out to respondents once they had agreed to participate and were collected immediately after completion, the response rate was 100%. However nine questionnaires could not be used because the respondents had only completed the first of two

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? pages. A total of 656 surveys were thus included in the analysis with 268 completed at Cairns and 388 at Coolongatta. Questions were developed based on the results of focus group interviews and a Delphi study which was used to determine likely patterns of demand based on generation membership. Prior to commencing the survey a pilot study based on 50 surveys was conducted at Sunshine Coast Airport and minor changes were made to the survey instrument. Results were entered into SPSS version 13.0. As noted before, time and financial limitations as well as weather and administrative issues guided the choice of the two airports as locations for the data collection. This also meant that all respondents had accessed the destinations by air and did not include those that chose other modes of transport. But since most questions asked for broad aspects of future life and tourism expectations, this was not deemed to be of major concern. The short period of data collection also implies that a snapshot of tourists travelling in the Christmas period was sampled. Again, due to the general nature of questions, this was not of major concern. RESPONDENTS’ CHARACTERISTICS As Table 1 indicates, a number of differences were identified between respondents’ characteristics based on the location of the survey. Table 1 Respondents’ Characteristics Characteristic Respondents Gender Male Female Age group Generation Y (1978-1987) Generation X (1966-1977) Baby Boomers (1946-1965) Family Single Couple Children no children only independent children only dependent children independent and dependent children Main occupation student home duties Retired full-time work part-time work unemployed Income under $20.000 $20.000-$39.000 $40.000-$59.000

Cairns number % 268

Coolangatta number % 388

Total number % 656

139 129

51.9 48.1

177 210

45.6 54.1

316 339

43.23 46.37

102 75 91

38.1 28.0 34.0

132 115 141

34.0 29.6 36.3

234 190 232

32.01 25.99 31.74

107 159

39.9 59.3

169 213

43.6 54.9

276 372

37.76 50.89

147 25 62 28

54.9 9.3 23.1 10.4

205 55 86 34

52.8 14.2 22.2 8.8

352 80 148 62

48.15 10.94 20.25 8.48

38 5 1 197 18 6

14.2 1.9 0.4 73.5 6.7 2.2

55 25 21 231 48 6

14.2 6.4 5.4 59.5 12.4 1.5

93 30 22 428 66 12

12.72 4.10 3.01 58.55 9.03 1.64

27 26 54

10.1 9.7 20.1

44 68 80

11.3 17.5 20.6

71 94 134

9.71 12.86 18.33

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Characteristic $60.000-$79.000 $80.000-$99.000 $100.000-$119.000 $120.000-$140.000 $140.000 and over Visitor origin QLD NSW VIC SA NT WA ACT TAS Length of stay 1-4 nights 5-7 nights 8-14 nights 15-21 nights 22 nights or more

Cairns number 34 26 27 14 41

% 12.7 9.7 10.1 5.2 15.3

Coolangatta number % 47 12.1 32 8.2 38 9.8 22 5.7 44 11.3

Total number % 81 11.08 58 7.93 65 8.89 36 4.92 85 11.63

69 86 37 29 19 12 6 2

25.7 32.1 13.8 10.8 7.1 4.5 2.2 0.7

90 150 92 30 1 6 8 2

23.2 38.7 23.7 7.7 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.5

159 236 129 59 20 18 14 4

21.75 32.28 17.65 8.07 2.74 2.46 1.92 0.55

43 112 59 26 28

16.0 41.8 22.0 9.7 10.4

102 137 104 16 27

26.3 35.3 26.8 4.1 7.0

145 249 163 42 55

19.84 34.06 22.30 5.75 7.52

The questionnaire was completed by a higher proportion of females in Coolangatta than in Cairns. While this could indicate a higher number of female visitors to the Gold Coast, it may also be the results of couples relying on the female to complete the questionnaire. Visitors’ age distribution also differed between Coolangatta and Cairns. While the proportion of Generation X respondents (born between 1966 and 1977) was similar at the two airports, Coolangatta received more Baby Boomers (36.3%) and Cairns had more members of Generation Y (38.1%). Cairns (59.3%) had a larger share of couples than Coolangatta (54.9%). However, at both destinations the number of couples was higher than the number of singles. The majority of respondents at both destinations did not have children but their proportion was slightly higher in Cairns. A larger proportion of respondents in Coolangatta had only independent children, which correspondents with the slightly older age profile. While the majority of respondents at both airports were working full time, the percentage was significantly higher in Cairns than in Coolangatta. On the other hand, a larger proportion of respondents in Coolangatta were retired, working part-time or occupied with home duties. As a consequence there were differences in the income levels between the two destinations. More respondents were in the $20,000-$39,000 in Coolangatta, while the $80,000 to $99,000 and $140,000 and over groups were larger in Cairns. Generally, visitors to Cairns were less likely than those to Coolangatta to stay for only four days, but they were more likely to stay for five to seven days. The proportion of tourists staying between eight and fourteen days was higher in Coolangatta, but the proportion of those staying over three weeks was higher in Cairns.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? LIFE EXPECTATIONS To provide general background information on the respondents’ future life expectation six questions were asked and the results are outlined in Table 2. Many of the factors identified can be argued to have significant impacts on holiday demand as will differences between generations. The results for the general life expectations expressed by the respondents did not yield many major differences between visitors to Cairns and to Coolangatta. The vast majority of respondents agreed with the expectation that they will have more money available for travel in 2020 (82.2%). The proportion of respondents who strongly agreed was higher in Cairns (85%) than in Coolangatta (80.2%), which could be the result of a larger proportion of members of Generation Y participating in the survey. Table 2 Respondents’ General Life Expectations Cairns

In the year 2021… I expect to have more money available for travel. I expect to have more time available for travel. I expect to have dependent children. I expect to have a mortgage. I expect to own the house/ unit I live in. I expect to live in Queensland.

Coolangatta

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

4.21 3.75 2.81 3.27 3.88 2.85

0.83 1.04 1.49 1.42 1.15 1.27

4.03 3.79 2.85 3.08 3.87 2.69

0.94 0.96 1.41 1.38 1.10 1.23

Cairns & Coolangatta Mean Std. Dev. 4.10 3.78 2.84 3.15 3.88 2.75

0.90 1.00 1.44 1.40 1.12 1.25

The expectation of having more time available for travel was lower in Cairns, which could also be related to the larger proportion of members of Generation Y many of whom may currently be studying. It is interesting to note though, that the proportion of respondents who strongly agreed with this statement was higher in Cairns than on the Gold Coast. Overall the majority of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that they will have both more money (82.2%) and more time (65.9%) available for travel in the year 2020. Less than half (41.9%) the respondents agreed that they will have dependent children in 2020 and the proportions were similar in Cairns and in Coolangatta (Figure 1). However, the proportion of respondents who strongly disagreed is slightly larger in Cairns (30.9%) than in Coolangatta (26.5%) and the proportion of neutral answers is slightly larger in Coolangatta (16.2%) than in Cairns (11.6%). Given the significance of children in determining family holiday patterns this finding can be expected to have significant implications for future demand and product development in the destinations surveyed.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Figure 1 Expectation to Have Dependent Children. 100% 90% 80% 70%

missing

60%

strongly agree agree neutral

50% 40%

disagree strongly disagree

30% 20% 10% 0% Cairns

Coolangatta

Total

Overall 51.1% of respondents expected to have a mortgage in 2020. In general Baby Boomers expected to own their own homes (77.4%) allowing them some latitude for travel that will not exist with respondents who are still paying a mortgage. At both destinations the proportion of respondents expecting that they will live in Queensland by the year 2020 (25.9%) was slightly higher than the proportion of respondents currently living in Queensland (24.2%). This confirms the projection of a growing population in Queensland as published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2003). At the same time, the proportion of respondents who disagreed or strongly disagreed with this statement was significantly higher at Coolangatta airport (44.8%) than in Cairns (37.3%), and the proportion of neutral answers, was larger in Cairns. It is important to note that this statement received the highest proportion of neutral answers, which can be interpreted as undecided responses, at both Cairns (34.3%) and Coolangatta (30.2%) airport. The expectation of living in Queensland was the only factor that yielded a mean suggesting agreement at one airport (3.1 in Cairns) and a mean suggesting disagreement at the other (2.69 in Coolangatta). Accordingly, it was also the only statement for which a statistically significant difference was found between the respondents at the two airports. TOURISM EXPECTATIONS IN COMPARISON WITH TODAY Respondents were asked to express their views on fifteen statements (Table 3) that related to their tourism expectations for the year 2020. Results did not reveal major differences between respondents in Cairns compared with Coolangatta. In comparison with the general life expectations, the proportion of neutral answers was relatively high.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Table 3 Respondents’ Tourism Expectations for 2020 in Comparison with Today Cairns

Coolangatta

Mean Std. Mean Dev. In comparison with my holidays today, I believe in 2020 … I will take more short breaks (1-4 days). I will take longer holidays. I will travel overseas more often. I will travel in Australia more often. I will travel more frequently. I will go on more caravanning/ camping holidays. I will take more budget holidays. I will take more luxury holidays. price will be a more important factor in choosing my destination. value for money will be more important for me. I will take more holidays or short breaks away from the coast. I will find Southeast Queensland more attractive. I will find North Queensland more attractive. I will visit more friends and family in Queensland. I will visit more friends and relatives around Australia.

Cairns & Coolangatta Std. Mean Std. Dev. Dev.

3.33 3.74 3.82 3.85 3.77 2.72 2.82 3.41 3.29

1.10 0.91 0.88 0.76 0.86 1.24 1.03 0.92 1.02

3.49 3.67 3.59 3.81 3.74 2.58 2.76 3.39 3.30

1.01 0.94 1.02 0.77 0.84 1.23 1.04 1.01 0.98

3.43 3.70 3.68 3.83 3.75 2.46 2.78 3.40 3.29

1.05 0.93 0.97 0.77 0.84 1.23 1.04 0.97 1.0

3.78 2.78

0.85 0.83

3.78 2.83

0.88 0.94

3.78 2.81

0.87 0.89

2.96 3.42 2.96 3.39

0.86 0.84 1.02 1.01

3.25 3.17 3.20 3.24

0.79 0.78 1.01 0.97

3.13 3.27 3.10 3.30

0.83 0.81 1.02 0.99

The majority of respondents (55.8%) expected to take more short breaks in the future although agreement with this statement was higher in Coolangatta and disagreement was higher in Cairns. There was very little difference between the two destinations regarding the expectation for taking longer holidays. Approximately 65% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with this statement at each airport. Findings revealed a strong interest in overseas holidays at both destinations (70.5% in Cairns and 61.9% in Coolangatta). In light of the continuing emergence of new overseas destinations this finding suggests a need for both destinations to monitor their attractiveness for domestic tourists. However, respondents also expressed a strong interest in travelling domestically more often (73%). The proportion of respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing with this statement was even higher than that for the expectation to engage in more overseas travel (65.4%). It is also interesting to note that disagreement with the statement was lower (4.7%) at both destinations than the disagreement with more frequent overseas travel (12.7%). Generally, an expectation to travel more often was shared by the majority of respondents at both destinations. As indicated above, the expectation to travel more frequently may be beneficial for both domestic and international destinations. Asked about their expectation for taking more camping or caravanning holidays in the year 2020 in comparison with today, approximately 50% of respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed. While there was still a significant proportion of respondents who expected to engage in this type of tourism in the future, further analysis suggested that the younger Generations X (31.6%) and Y (29.9%) are more likely to take such holidays in the future than the older Baby Boomer generation (24.8%).

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Comparatively little agreement also existed in relation to the question on expectations of taking more budget holidays. This could be related to the fact that the vast majority of respondents expected to have more money available for travel in the future. Although agreement (26.4%) with this statement was lower than disagreement (37.5%), there was a very high proportion of respondents whose answer was neutral (36.1%). Accordingly, the expectation to take more luxury holidays was high. Approximately 50% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed. Again, this could be related to the expectation to have more money available. Similar to the expectation for more budget holidays, many respondents gave a neutral answer (33.8%). Despite the general expectation of the availability of more money, a high number of respondents expected that price would become a more important factor of destination choice. Approximately 20% of respondents disagreed with this expectation. The expectation to place more importance on value for money was even more dominant. Approximately 70% of respondents believed that this would be the case for them in the year 2020 and less than 10% of respondents disagreed. Results showed a continuing strong interest in beach and coastal holidays reflected by 36% of respondents’ who (strongly) disagreed with the expectation to travel away from the coast more often. Two statements about the future attractiveness of Southeast Queensland and North Queensland were the only items that revealed a significant statistical difference between respondents in Cairns compared with Coolangatta. Respondents in Coolangatta were more likely to agree (34.5% over 23.5%) with an increasing attractiveness of Southeast Queensland, while respondents in Cairns (45.1% over 30.2%) were more likely to believe in a greater attractiveness of North Queensland. For both airports and both destination areas a large proportion of respondents (49.5% for North Queensland and 51.2% for Southeast Queensland) provided neutral answers, suggesting high uncertainty about the expectations for the future attractiveness of each destination area. Approximately one-third (36.9%) expected to visit friends and relatives in Queensland more often in the future. The high number of neutral responses (36%) could be the result of not only having to think about one’s own tourism demand but also to make some assumptions about friends’ and relatives’ potential future state of residence. GENERAL TOURISM EXPECTATIONS Table 4 summarises responses to a bank of questions about anticipated future tourism demand. The overwhelming majority of respondents at both destinations agreed (58.2%) or strongly agreed (28.8%) that, in the future, they would expect to visit destinations they had not been to before. This was expressed by over 90% of respondents in Cairns and 85% in Coolangatta. It is possible that the older age structure in Coolangatta lead to slightly lower agreement with this statement. The older age profile may also be the reason for a slightly larger proportion of respondents in Coolangatta agreeing with travelling mainly outside of school holidays in comparison with Cairns. Nevertheless, at both airports, this expectation was expressed by around 50% of respondents.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Table 4: Respondents’ general tourism expectations Cairns

Cairns & Coolangatta Mean Std. Mean Std. Mean Std. Dev. Dev. Dev. Generally, regarding my holidays in 2020 I believe… I will travel to places I have not visited before. I will travel mainly outside school holidays. I will choose accommodation with facilities for children. Southeast Queensland will be too crowded for me. I will stay in one place during my holidays rather than travelling around. I will mainly take holidays or short breaks on the beach. I will take active holidays. I will travel mainly where it is warm.

Coolangatta

4.19 3.37 3.01 3.07 2.83

0.70 1.07 1.11 0.93 1.00

4.07 3.47 2.88 3.07 2.96

0.73 1.05 1.13 0.89 1.03

4.12 3.43 2.94 3.07 2.91

0.72 1.06 1.12 0.90 1.02

3.31 3.59 3.48

0.89 0.91 0.97

3.46 3.53 3.66

0.87 0.84 0.90

3.40 3.55 3.58

0.88 0.87 0.93

Despite the rate of population growth that is expected for Southeast Queensland over the next 15 year, only 30% of respondents believed that the destination area would become too crowded. It is possible that specifically mentioning the projected increase of the Queensland population from currently 3.8 million to between 4.6 and 5.4 million by 2021 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2003) may have lead to different results. It is also notable that approximately 45% of respondents at each airport provided a neutral answer which indicates that respondents may not have a clear understanding of the projected rate of population growth. Generally, respondents were interested in touring holidays (39.6%) rather than staying on one place (30.9%). In accordance with the low expectation to travel away from the coast more often in the future, half of the respondents agreed or strongly agreed that they expect to holiday mainly on the beach. The expectation was higher in Coolangatta than in Cairns, which is likely to be related to the current range of activities that is more focused on beach holidays on the Gold Coast. The majority of respondents expected to undertake active holidays in the future (59%). Disagreement with this statement was very low (11.4%), which indicates the need to provide tourism and holiday activities both around Cairns and in the Gold Coast area that meet the criteria of active holidays as understood by the tourists. Further research into the types of activities that tourists desire will be needed. The majority of respondents (58.7%) have a preference for warm tourist destinations. In Coolangatta agreement reached 62.1%. While this can be seen as a positive sign for the Cold Coast and Cairns, it also indicates that both destination areas need to be aware of the increasing competition that arises from emerging destinations, both in Australia and overseas. The calculation of the means for these eight statements confirms that the strongest agreement existed for the interest in travelling to new destinations (see Table 4). This was followed by the interest in taking active holidays and travelling mainly outside school holidays. Overall disagreement was found only for the expectation to remain in one place rather than travelling around.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? GENERATIONAL DIFFERENCES The respondents’ ratings about life and tourism expectations were examined to identify statistically significant differences between the answers that members of each generation provided. The Chi-square (χ2) test was used to assess significant statistical differences between the expectations expressed by the three generations. A probability level (p) at or below 0.05 signifies a statistically significant difference between the generations (Nardi 2003). As displayed in Table 5, differences between generations were more obvious when measured by general life expectations than by tourism expectations. The findings from respondents at Coolangatta yielded more points of difference than those from Cairns. For statistical reasons, the range of responses had to be reduced from a five-point scale to a three-point scale to achieve valid results. Table 5: Statistically significant differences (highlighted in grey) between generations

In the year 2021… I expect to have more money available for travel. I expect to have more time available for travel. I expect to have dependent children. I expect to have a mortgage. I expect to own the house/ unit I live in. I expect to live in Queensland. In comparison with my holidays today, I believe in 2020 … I will take more short breaks (1-4 days). I will take longer holidays. I will travel overseas more often. I will travel in Australia more often. I will travel more frequently. I will go on more caravanning/ camping holidays. I will take more budget holidays. I will take more luxury holidays. price will be a more important factor in choosing my destination. value for money will be more important for me. I will take more holidays or short breaks away from the coast. I will find Southeast Queensland more attractive. I will find Northern Queensland more attractive. I will visit more friends and family in Queensland. I will visit more friends and relatives around Australia. Generally, regarding my holidays in 2020 I believe… I will travel to places I have not visited before. I will travel mainly outside school holidays. I will choose accommodation with facilities for children. Southeast Queensland will be too crowded for me. I will stay in one place during my holidays rather than travelling around. I will mainly take holidays or short breaks on the beach. I will take active holidays. I will travel mainly where it is warm.

CNS (p)

OOL (p)

CNS & OOL (p)

0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003

0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.189 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.001

0.590 0.272 0.156 0.746 0.003 0.108 0.053 0.653 0.590 0.573 0.074 0.394 0.544 0.441 0.515

0.175 0.023 0.038 0.057 0.011 0.865 0.031 0.032 0.029 0.039 0.421 0.200 0.566 0.373 0.975

0.105 0.006 0.085 0.050 0.000 0.251 0.013 0.251 0.052 0.157 0.164 0.446 0.482 0.140 0.802

0.801 0.000 0.000 0.083 0.289 0.024 0.017 0.547

0.325 0.000 0.000 0.510 0.528 0.012 0.000 0.540

0.216 0.000 0.000 0.130 0.592 0.000 0.000 0.747

Amongst all three generations, there was overwhelming agreement with the expectation to having more money available for tourism purposes in the future. Nevertheless, the agreement with this statement was strongest amongst the youngest respondents, Generation Y (91%)

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? compared with Generation X (84.2%) and the Baby Boomers (71.6%). The results were similar for the two airports. The expectation to have more time available for travel was largest amongst the Baby Boomers (88.8%) which is likely to be related to their anticipation of retirement. While all generations showed more agreement than disagreement with this statement, it was lowest for Generation Y (41%), who may expect further work or family commitments in the future. However, it appears that uncertainty concerning such commitments is highest amongst Generation Y, which is reflected in a comparatively large proportion of neutral answers (34.2%). The expectation to have dependent children is lowest amongst Baby Boomers (16.4%). It is likely that the children of most Baby Boomer respondents will be financially independent from them by the year 2020. The results showed that the majority of respondents from Generations X (49.5%) and Y (61.1%) expect to have at least one child in the future. Similarly, Baby Boomers are the generation least likely to expect to have a mortgage in 2020 (19.4%). It is very likely that they will have repaid their mortgages by that time, while Generation Y may only just have borrowed for a house or may do so in the future. These results also confirm the positive attitude regarding home ownership that is widely held in Australia. In light of these results, it is interesting to note that the expectation to own their place of residence is widely spread amongst respondents of each generation. It is quite possible that home ownership was perceived equivalent to entering the purchase agreement although the purchase price may not have been paid in full. Overall, Baby Boomers were most likely to agree with the expectation to live in Queensland by the year 2020 (32.8%). Some differences were found between the respondents at the two airports. In Coolangatta the proportion of respondents in agreement with this statement was similar for Generations X and Y and highest for the Baby Boomers. However, Generation Y was most likely to disagree (56.8%) and the Baby Boomers most likely to agree (37.4%). In contrast, disagreement was at a similar level for the three generations in Cairns (approximately 33%), while Generation X was the most likely to agree (28.7%), followed by Baby Boomers (26.6%) and Generation Y (21.6%). Levels of agreement for the expectation to take longer holidays were similar between Generations X and Y (approximately 60%), although the Baby Boomers were most likely to agree (71.6%). There was little difference in opinion at the two airports regarding this statement. All three generations expressed a strong interest in travelling overseas more often in the future. Overall, Generation Y was most likely to agree (71.8%) and the Baby Boomers were least likely to agree (60.3%). However, in Cairns, the proportion of respondents in agreement with this statement was approximately 70% for each of the three generations. A difference in opinion was obvious in Coolangatta, where the interest in overseas travel fell with increasing age. Generation Y (72.7%) was most interested in travelling overseas, followed by Generation X (59.6%) and the Baby Boomers (54.6%). All three generations were also very interested in more domestic tourism. The two younger generations showed similar levels of interest (approximately 70%), while the expectation to travel in Australia more often was highest amongst the Baby Boomers (79.3%). In correspondence with the higher expectation for more time and money available for tourism purposes, the Baby Boomers were the most likely generation to expect to travel more frequently in the future (78.4%). Overall this expectation rose with higher age. However, in Cairns, a similar proportion (approximately 61%) amongst Generations X and Y agreed with this statement, although Generation X was the most likely to disagree (13.5%).

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Overall, Baby Boomers were the most likely to expect more budget holidays with 32.1% (strongly) agreeing to this statement, followed by Generation y (25.9%) and Generation X (21.7%). However, the ranking differed between the destinations. In Coolangatta, Baby Boomers were also the most likely to agree with the statement (35.1%), but were followed by Generation Y (22.3%) and Generation X (24.6%). In Cairns, Generation Y (30.4%) showed the most interest in budget holidays in the future, followed by the Baby Boomers (27.8%), and Generation X (17%). Correspondingly, Generations X (51.9%) and Y (52.1%) were more likely to agree that they expect to take luxury holidays in the future than Baby Boomers (43.2%). The proportion of respondents who agreed with this statement fell with increasing age at Coolangatta, while in Cairns Generation X was the most likely to agree, followed by Baby boomers and Generation Y. Generally, a larger proportion of respondents in each age group agreed with the expectation to take more luxury holidays in 2020 than with the expectation to take more budget holidays. This is likely to be related to the fact that all three generations expect to have more money available in the future. The distribution of answers regarding the expectation that price will become a more important factor of holiday choice matches those for the expectation to take more budget holidays. Both are linked to potential external or internal constraints on spending money for tourism. It can be assumed that respondents who consider price to become an increasingly important factor in their decision-making process will choose cheaper (budget) options. Value for money is however much more important than the actual price. The majority of members of all three generation expect to attach more importance to value for money in the future. While the responses from each generation were similar in Cairns, in Coolangatta a larger proportion of Baby Boomers (75.8%) than Generations X (62.6%) or Y (65.6%) agreed with this statement. The expectation to travel mainly outside school holidays was most agreed with by Baby Boomers (71.5%). This is hardly surprising since they are the least likely to have dependent children in the year 2020, so that they are less likely to be bound to school holidays. Their own work commitments or the possibility to travel with their children and grand-children may result in lower agreement with this statement than the disagreement with the statement to have dependent children. At both destinations, Generations X and Y have similar expectations for travelling mainly outside school holidays. Approximately 40% agree, while approximately 15% disagree. Regarding the type of destination that the three generations prefer, Generations X (55.8%) and Y (57.3%) are more likely to holiday mainly in beach destinations. This could be related to having children which makes beach holidays more feasible than other types of holidays. Nevertheless, a strong interest for the beach is expected to continue to exist in the future. At both airports, respondents across the three generations were interested in active holidays (59%). The greatest interest was expressed by Generation Y (72.6%) and the least interest by Baby Boomers (47.8%). While active holidays appear to be a major component of future tourism activities, it is likely that the level of active involvement will differ between the three generations. Possibly, Generation Y would be more interested in active adventure travel, while Baby Boomers might take more interest in bushwalking. IMPLICATIONS The survey results indicate that a range of opportunities exist for tourism destinations to develop their products for domestic tourists. However, they may also face some challenges in the future. Generally, members of all three generation are expecting to travel more frequently, to have more money available for travel, and to take longer holidays. The combination of these expectations is important for a potential expansion of domestic tourism. However, it is also important to note that value for money is expected to become increasingly important, an aspect

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? that destinations and tourism service providers should take into consideration. Furthermore, respondents in this survey were not only more interested in domestic tourism but there was also a strong preference for travelling overseas more often. In light of the recent expansion of low cost carriers to Asian and Pacific destinations, coupled with the desire to receive value for money, coastal destinations in Queensland may need to prepare themselves for increasing competition from overseas. Destinations like Tonga or Samoa may be considered more exotic and yielding higher ‘bragging power’, so that Australians may increasingly swap beach holidays in Queensland for destinations overseas. In a service industry such as tourism lower personnel costs in emerging destinations in developing countries are likely to prevent Australian destinations from competing solely on price. Consequently, Australian destinations increasingly need to develop and promote unique selling propositions which clearly distinguish them from other destinations in order to remain competitive. The majority of respondents in this survey expected to travel mainly outside school holidays in the future. This is true in particular for Baby Boomers, many of whom are likely not to travel with dependent children by the year 2020. Given the large number of Baby Boomers and their interest in tourism, this could have some implications for seasonality and price. While Baby Boomers are likely to avoid the school holidays for reasons of high cost, increasing demand during shoulder or low season could lead to reduced fluctuation of traditional seasonality and price levels. Nevertheless, the climate at the destinations will also play a major factor in such potential shifts. Cairns may be less affected since its peak seasons lies outside the Australian summer school holidays because of the hot and humid weather experienced at that time of year. In addition to the large number of Baby Boomers, at both destinations approximately 40% of respondents amongst Generations X and Y also expected to travel mainly outside school holidays. The number of respondents in these age groups who agreed was higher than the number of those who disagreed. Naturally, many tourism decisions amongst the two younger generations will depend on their family composition in the year 2020, which many may currently be unable to foresee. It is important for destinations and tourism providers to observe the development of fertility rates, number of families with children and number of single parents. As pointed out early in the paper, such changes may not be very relevant from one year to the next but over the course of fifteen years they may have significant impacts on tourism patterns, including the timing of travel, the composition of travel parties and the demand for certain types of accommodation and attractions. Finally, it is necessary to draw attention to the large number of respondents at both destinations who provided neutral answers to a number of statements. These included the following expectations: • • • • • • • •

taking more budget holidays (34.4%), taking more luxury holidays (33.8%), price becoming a more important factor for decision-making (33.2%), Southeast Queensland becoming a more attractive destination (51.2%), North Queensland becoming a more attractive destination (49.5%), taking more VFR holidays in Queensland (36%) or around Australia (32.5%), taking more holidays away from the coast (41%), and Southeast Queensland becoming too crowded as a destination (45.5%).

The high proportion of neutral answers indicates that respondents were undecided about their expectations regarding these statements. It can thus be concluded that such developments are uncertain over the next fifteen years. For destinations and tourism businesses this finding suggests that there is an increased need to monitor the development of aspects such as the

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? demand for budget and luxury holidays, the attractiveness of North and Southeast Queensland, and the attractiveness of coastal and inland destinations. The attractiveness of destinations may be closely related with one aspect of demographic change that is particularly relevant for Southeast Queensland; the extent of population growth that will be experienced in the future. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (2003) projects that the population in Queensland will grow from 3.7 million in 2002 to between 4.6 million and 5.4 million by 2021. This represents an increase of at least 24% over twenty years. Two-thirds of this population growth are expected to occur in Southeast Queensland (Department of Local Government and Planning 2001), adding between 30,150 and 56,960 residents annually to the population. While the growing population could result in better infrastructure development and air access, which would increase the areas’ attractiveness as a destination, current concerns over the availability of water and the adequacy of road and public transport facilities may result in the opposite. Coupled with a potential for overcrowding, infrastructure development that does not keep up with population growth could prove to be harmful for tourism destinations, particularly in Southeast Queensland. It is interesting to see that, although all six general life expectation questions yielded significant statistical differences between the three generations, these were translated into only a limited number of differences regarding the tourism expectations. Many of those related to the time individual tourists are likely to have available for tourism activities in the future and how they will use that time. Baby Boomers were the most likely to expect to spend more time travelling, taking longer holidays and travelling more frequently. This expectation is due to many of them expecting to retire at or before 65 years of age. The current concerns about an increasing shortage of a skilled workforce due to the retirement of Baby Boomers over the next twenty years, has lead to suggestions that businesses may provide incentives for Baby Boomers to remain in or return to the workforce past the age of 65 years (Cocks 2003). In a recent report, it was proposed that the Australian government consider the possibility of increasing the retirement age to 75 years by the year 2015 (Productivity Commission 2005). Tourism businesses and destinations need to critically assess the implications of such changes for the tourism industry both from a consumer and an employment point of view. While a higher retirement age may provide the skilled labour that is required to provide tourism services in the quality and volume that is in demand, a voluntary or forced extension of the Baby Boomers’ working life may limit their ability to travel with the frequency and for the length of time that is currently anticipated. Other differences between the generations were linked to the respondents’ expected family composition. Compared to the Baby Boomers many Generations X and Y will have dependent children by the year 2020 and thus to depend on school holidays for their tourism activities. As discussed previously, the actual development of family structures over the next fifteen years will influence the ability amongst the younger generations to travel outside of school holidays. Furthermore, it seems reasonable to expect that singles or couples without children have more disposable income available for tourism activities than families with children. Thus, Australia’s future family structures could also impact on the choice of activities, the number of luxury holidays or the number of flights individuals undertake during one year if they do not need to worry about supporting children. It was pointed out in the beginning that demographic change represents one of the key influential factors in the business environment which businesses and destinations need to take into consideration when planning for future tourism development. While this survey has provided some indication about the expectations that Baby Boomers and members of Generation X and Y have for their future tourism activities, it is vital to closely monitor external changes that may influence these expectations. Individual tourism demand and aggregate

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? tourism demand in the future are likely to differ from today and the extent of change is highly dependent on future changes in the business environment. This research is part of a long term research plan by the authors into future demand patterns based on generation membership and lifecycle membership. The study will be repeated each five years to identity changes in demand patterns and to test the long term validity of this research method. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Dr. Petra Glover is a member of the Tourism Research Unit at Monash University. This research is an outcome of a project funded by the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre, established by the Australian Commonwealth Government. REFERENCES Australian Bureau of Statistics (2003), Population Projections - Australia - 2002-2101, Cat. No. 3222.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2004), Australian Social Trends 2004, Cat. No. 4102.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra. Callan, RJ & Bowman, L (2000), 'Selecting a hotel and determining salient quality attributes: a preliminary study of mature British travellers', The International Journal of Tourism Research, vol. 2, no. 2, p. 97. Cocks, D (2003), Deep futures: our prospects for survival, University of New South Wales Press, Kensington, N.S.W. Department of Local Government and Planning (2001), Population trends and prospects for Queensland, 2001 edn, Queensland Government, Department of Local Government and Planning, Brisbane. Eyerman, R & Turner, BS (1998), 'Outline of a Theory of Generations', European Journal Of Social Theory, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 91-106. Fleischer, A & Pizam, A (2002), 'Tourism constraints among Israeli seniors', Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 106-23. Freysinger, VJ (1999), 'Life Span and Life Course Perspectives on Leisure', in EL Jackson & B T.L. (eds), Leisure Studies: Prospects for the twenty-first century, Venture Publishing, State College, PA, pp. 253-62. Godbey, G (2003), Leisure in your life: an exploration, 6th edn, Venture Publishing, State College, PA. Hicks, R & Hicks, K (1999), Boomers, Xers and other Strangers, Tyndale House Publishers, Wheaton, Illinois. Huang, L & Tsai, H-T (2003), 'The study of senior traveler behavior in Taiwan', Tourism Management, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 561-74. Kim, J, Wei, S & Ruys, H (2003), 'Segmenting the market of West Australian senior tourists using an artificial neural network', Tourism Management, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 25-34. Marconi, J (2001), Future marketing: targeting seniors, Boomers, and Generations X and Y, NTC Business Books: in conjunction with The American Marketing Association, Lincolnwood, Ill. McRae, H (1995), The world in 2020: power, culture and prosperity: a vision of the future, Harper Collins, London. Meredith, G & Schewe, C (1994), 'The power of cohorts', American Demographics, vol. 16, no. 12, pp. 22-31. Nardi, PM (2003), Doing survey research: a guide to quantitative methods, Allyn and Bacon, Boston.

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CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? Pennington-Gray, LA, Fridgen, JD & Stynes, D (2003), 'Cohort segmentation: An application to tourism', Leisure Sciences, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 341-61. Prideaux, B (2004), 'A time of generational change: Will Norfolk Island's tourism industry be ready?' paper presented to New Zealand Tourism and Hospitality Conference 2004, Wellington, 8-10 December. Prideaux, B, Wei, C & Ruys, H (2004), 'Tour Coach Operations in the Australian Seniors Market', Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 65-76. Prideaux, B, Wei, S & Ruys, H (2001), 'The senior drive tour market in Australia', Journal of Vacation Marketing, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 209-19. Productivity Commission (2005), Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, Australian Government, Productivity Commission, Canberra. Rapoport, R, Rapoport, RN & Strelitz, Z (1975), Leisure and the family life cycle, Routledge and K. Paul, London; Boston. Strauss, W & Howe, N (1991), 'The cycle of generations', American Demographics, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 24-33, 52. Tapscott, D (1998), Growing up digital: the rise of the net generation, McGraw-Hill, New York. Tourism Queensland (2006), Queensland Update, Tourism Queensland, Brisbane. Tourism Research Australia (2007), Travel by Australians, December Quarter 2006, Tourism Australia, Canberra.

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