IDSS for emergency preparedness and management ... - CiteSeerX

Int. J. Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 2, Nos. 3/4, 2001

Adapting to new challenges: IDSS for emergency preparedness and management Adrian V. Gheorghe Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]

Dan V. Vamanu Institute for Atomic Physics, Bucharest, Romania E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: In order to manage risks, emergency planning and preparedness procedures are currently in use. The advent of Information Technology (IT) in the field of emergency management opened vast possibilities for the development of Integrated Decision Support Systems (IDSS). They are designed to perform calculations, make risk representation, fully interact with stakeholders, and assist in communicating operational tasks to emergency command people. The present work introduces IDSS computer software i.e. KOVERS, designed and implemented to assist emergency management in the case of potential nuclear and chemical accidents involving fixed installations or transportation activities. This package addresses the specific needs of industrial customers as well as military and civil defence specialists, who are interested in running compact codes on general use and portable machines such as notebooks, and make ad hoc informed decisions on the accident field. KOVERS has a number of special features that may single it out as in applicability and computational complexity: it handles a comprehensive GIS environment (24 layers of distinct information) with reference to Switzerland; it introduces an original model to perform sophisticated calculations for air dispersion in complex terrain; assists in making special calculations and creates maps to identify areas that lack HF radio communication coverage in a complex terrain under emergency; calculates consequences due to dispersion of radio-nuclides and chemicals into water bodies e.g. rivers and lakes as well as the contamination of the ground water; calculates consequences of BLEVE, explosions, tunnel fires etc. KOVERS is open to extension by estimating and representing with a high degree of precision, the potential consequences due to accidental satellite re-entering, calculating the possible area of impact and associated consequences e.g. population affected, ecological losses. KOVERS is characterized as a compact, efficient computer tool with a high degree of integration of existing commercial maps e.g. Swiss Map 100, orthographic pictures, satellite images, into a computational environment of an intended ‘user-friendly high complexity’. Examples of KOVERS runs are included. The paper aims at clarifying the role and the potential use of IDSS into risk dialogue activities by means of stakeholder interaction processes. Keywords: Emergency planning; Integrated Decision Support Systems; stakeholders; complex terrain; dispersion. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Gheorghe, A.V. and Vamanu, D.V. (2001) ‘Adapting to new challenges: IDSS for emergency preparedness and management’, Int. J. Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 2, Nos. 3/4, pp.211–223. Copyright © 2001 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

211

212

A.V. Gheorghe and D.V. Vamanu Biographical notes: Adrian V. Gheorghe holds an MSc in Electrical Engineering from Bucharest Polytechnic Institute, Romania and a PhD in Systems Science/Systems Engineering from The City University, London, UK. He has worked with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria (energy-environment and risk analysis modelling groups), Riso National Laboratory, Denmark (energy and economic modelling and risk analysis), Cowiconsult, Denmark (consulting engineering, risk analysis and the use of artificial intelligence models) and the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria (comparative risk assessment and PSA). Currently he is Professor of Industrial Risks Management and decision Analysis, Bucharest Polytechnic University, Romania and Senior Scientist with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland, working in the field of risk and safety sciences. Dr. Gheorghe is a member of the Editorial Boards for a number of international journals; he is also a member of the Society for Risk Analysis (USA), SRA-Europe; Society for Risk and Safety Sciences (Switzerland). Dr. Gheorghe has published 20 books and over 100 papers in internationally recognized journals. Dan V. Vamanu gained an MA in theoretical physics from the University of Bucharest in 1966 and a PhD in 1978. He began his career as a scientific researcher at the Institute of Atomic Physics in Bucharest. In 1973 he joined the Public Service and contributed to nuclear policy and governmental R&D management, both domestically and as an international negotiator (IAEA, UN, WEC). Since 1990, Dr. Vamanu has been a senior researcher with the Institute of Atomic Physics in such areas as radiation protection and nuclear safety. As a foreign assignee for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, he has made notable contributions to the development of US federal and international emergency response manuals and dedicated computer software. Dr. Vamanu has authored/co-authored over 60 publications, including Emergency Planning Knowledge, VDF Verlag der Fachvereine Zurich, 1996.

1

Introduction

Emergency planning and management has established itself as a distinct research and working topic in the field of risk assessment and safety engineering [1-3]. The relevance of the field is increasing nowadays, in proportion to the complexity of the world economic machinery and geopolitical developments. The protection of the population and the environment acquires new dimensions with the intensified transborder and open sea transportation of a variety of hazardous substances including toxic and radioactive wastes crossing areas of social unrest and political instability. Law-and-order and peace-keeping operations conducted in extra-national, and largely unfamiliar territories have also been proven to increase dramatically the environmental burden, and to entail natural infrastructure and societal habitat disruptions, whether in the Gulf, former Soviet space, or the Balkans. Recent developments in the post-Cold War era seem to evidence a reality that thus far went largely unnoticed, namely that the unprecedented accumulation of industrial assets over the past half century has dangerously increased the vulnerability of contemporary establishments to the challenges of an emerging world order that brings about, apparently by the force of necessity, a peacekeeping pattern that involves all-out, if surgical, military operations, and cannot exist without physical violence and counter-violence.

Adapting to new challenges: IDSS for emergency preparedness

213

Under the circumstances and in consideration of current trends, from the standpoint of safety as well as of the stakeholder, there is a stringent need today to: •

address emergency planning, management and awareness from a higher level of commitment than before,

•

integrate emergency planning and management into the overall life cycle design of products, systems and services,

•

consider that the step from a mere safety culture to an efficient emergency awareness and preparedness, must be taken.

In this context, an important aspect to address is related to the overall problem of critical infrastructure protection [4,5]. Peace, War, Terrorism, Economic Catastrophes, and Natural Violence, are all good reasons for concern and action (see below) for an adequate science and practice of Emergency Planning and Management. Peace

Seveso (Italy) Flixborough (UK) Schwarzehalle (Switzerland) Amsterdam aviatic accident (The Netherlands) Chamonix, Mont Blanc tunnel accident (France)

War

Kuwait: oil fields on fire Chechnya bombardment of oil refineries (Russia) Yugoslavia: surgical strikes on critically important infrastructures including chemical plants and oil refineries

Terrorism

Tokyo metro system (Japan) Oklahoma City (USA)

Economic Disasters

Chernobyl (Ukraine)

Natural Catastrophes

Indian Earthquakes Afghanistan Earthquake Avalanches in France, Austria and Switzerland Floods in USA, Germany, Poland El Nino

2

Features and trends of the IDSS

While the landmarks emphasized in the Introduction look more or less permanent, the framework for developing Integrated Decision Support Systems (IDSS) acquires several new features and accents. Among these one may notice: •

A decisive shift from science to practice, that makes IDSS the key deliverable of the risk and safety assessment endeavour

•

A consequent, paramount importance of the stakeholder in the design, implementation and maintenance of the IDSSs, relating to the emphasis on the utility functions of the latter

214 •

A.V. Gheorghe and D.V. Vamanu The need for an IDSS requisite battery of qualities that should uniformly ensure: – versatility, meaning the availability of tools to address a variety as large as is feasible of abnormal events, in a variety of geographic and geophysical places and conditions; – a smooth integration of national with regional coverage – from geography to legal frameworks; – an upgraded monitoring capability within a sound balance of predictive monitoring, and assessment functions; – a design proportionally providing for no-drill vs. drill, and offline vs. realtime online operations, and yet leaning towards the anticipative side as opposed to the post factum side. In a sense, one may say that the practice of ‘computer games’ tends to be transferred into a practice of ‘life games’, on a larger and more meaningful scale.

It is also to be noted that critical infrastructure protection [5] activities are lately, and increasingly, assisted by information technology (IT) and satellite technology (ST) and, in turn, this leads to a need to embed the rules, practice and management of emergency planning into an IT & ST marriage. Looking at the variety of recently developed IDSSs several features catch the attention. Among these are: •

the extensive use of GIS (Geographical Information Systems) technology;

•

the development of mathematical models for estimating consequences in complex terrain, various ecosystem environments and various industrial targets including chemical and nuclear facilities;

•

full integration of models that evaluate risk levels (either probabilities for potential accidents or consequences to health, environment and infrastructures) with the GIS technology;

•

cabling into dedicated IDSS the golden rules for good practice, for emergency planning and management;

•

customizing IDSS for local and regional needs in the case of major disasters in peace and war time;

•

development of customized IDSS for protection against terrorism attacks and their tentacle consequences (from large scale impacts to very local consequences concerning e.g. buildings, stations, airports).

Currently, satellite technology is assisting emergency planning and management more on the level of delivering information and pictures of the site of an accident. In the near future it is expected that this technology will be fully integrated with a new generation of models and tools for risk assessment/estimation and safety management. By analysing such accidental events it is ultimately of interest to assist the design of systems capable of operating in a fail-safe mode.


3

215

The KOVERS – IDSS

Faced with the challenges described, the IDSS designers and developers are in a phase of modelling the concept itself. A fertile exercise of this kind has been conducted at ETH – Zürich, Switzerland. The result is a conceptual-outline, demonstration IDSS (code named KOVERS TOOLS), that has, however, the potential for emergency planning and management. The special features of KOVERS are (see Figure 1): •

a customized GIS which includes information on topography and hydrography of the place of the accident, population density, 24 distinct uses of land, roads and rail facilities and access, ecological areas with different degrees of sensitivity;

•

distinct databases for chemical as well as for nuclear applications, and meteorological data, jointly with an online monograph, for documenting information on e.g. emergency procedures;

•

GIS applications involve statistics, hot spots, smog/fog risk areas, flood risk areas, USW/GSM coverage, as well as data import and export facilities;

•

chemical accident consequences’ evaluation, namely source terms estimation, BLEVE, explosion consequences, dispersion in complex terrain, risk indicators;

•

multicriteria analysis module in order to select actions of interest in the case of accidents e.g. derouting the transport of dangerous goods in the case of a declared accident in a given zone.

Figure 1

Distinct features of the KOVERS

216

A.V. Gheorghe and D.V. Vamanu

In Figure 2 more detailed information on the software facilities is presented. From this Figure, one can identify the architectural design of KOVERS 98 in order to comprehend various issues related to the problem of emergency management as well as the advancements from modelling and information technology. Figure 2

The overall architecture of KOVERS

Information on sensitive areas, in the case of accident situations, either of a chemical or nuclear type, are necessary for any practical actions which emergency teams might have to take. In Figure 3, a specific use of the GIS technology incorporated into KOVERS is highlighted. The advantage of handling various layers of information stored into the GIS structure allows the decision maker to have specific information on the zone under emergency response as well as to portray the various types of consequences that could occur. The combination of different types of sensitive areas and different accident conditions is unlimited. It is also dependent on the information available from the GIS database. Computational facilities associated with KOVERS give indications to a decision maker on the area of potential negative consequence under consideration, for planning special action e.g. decontamination. In Figure 4 one can identify the representation of the result of calculations for the consequence of a hypothetical accident. The use of maps where the accident would have taken place and the amplitude of the accident are of help in various stages of the emergency planning and management horizon.

Adapting to new challenges: IDSS for emergency preparedness Figure 3

Sensitive areas in case of a potential accident

Figure 4

A GIS representation of a potential chemical accident

217

218


Moreover, once the areas affected are laid over maps, full statistics of the covered territory are provided, consistent with the wealth of GIS information available, which provides for the evaluation of both the abnormality and the response costs. The versatility of KOVERS is furthered by the use of orthographic digital pictures. Aerial pictures and digital maps are instrumental in a rapid assessment of risk in the region. By using GIS assisted IDSS, one can use sophisticated mathematical models, which would estimate the extension of abnormality consequences, e.g. the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in a complex terrain. The analytical features of such models are portrayed in Figure 5. Elements of the trajectory would have to deal with: rise, wind, stability class, clouds, and inversion phenomenon. These elements have to be linked to the terrain characteristics via information on topography of the terrain, etc. A distinct topic is addressed by considering in the model, the sun motion and the appropriate features e.g. the insulation and transients. In the end, for practical reasons related to emergency preparedness and management, the computer code calculates specific elements of the risk, including concentration, toxic doses and lethality. Figure 5

Chemical risk oriented modelling of dispersion in complex terrain

The terrain induces a series of distinct elements in the dispersion of various airborne emissions. Figure 6 renders the results in the simulation mode of KOVERS in order to make clear the impact of terrain characteristics in the overall correct assessment of consequences in a given region.

Adapting to new challenges: IDSS for emergency preparedness Figure 6

219

The influence of complex terrain on dispersion of chemical and nuclear pollutants

The influence of buildings is also of high relevance when one is facing the need for proper emergency actions. Figure 7 gives evidence from the simulation of influence of high buildings and sophisticated urban developments on the dispersion pattern due to potential accident situations. Such information could assist the land use planning authorities and the special work to be done for the facilities which have to be created in order to avoid large-scale consequences to humans and the environment at the time of a potential accident. Figure 7

Features of KOVERS; the influence of high buildings on dispersion patterns

220


A related representation is given in Figure 8, when due to some specific assumptions and scenarios, the consequence results are portrayed correspondingly. Such information is of direct assistance to the in-service emergency team at the time of the accident. KOVERS has such built-in facilities in order to communicate information to the decision makers and to estimate various degrees of risk to the population. Figure 8

Facilities of KOVERS: calculation and representation of concentrations due to chemical/nuclear potential accidents

In a similar case, Figure 9 offers additional indications on the level of concentration and deposition of chemicals or radioactive substances on various types of roofs and the geometry of buildings. Figure 9

Deposition on high buildings, as a computational result in KOVERS


221

According to the trial users’ perception, the applicability of KOVERS is at least twofold: •

for optimal routing transportation of dangerous goods e.g. chemical or nuclear,

•

for specific purposes related to emergency planning and management (see Figure 10).

Figure 10 Fields of applicability for KOVERS

4

Stakeholders and use of IDSS in emergency planning and management

Modern decision-making processes involve the use of multicriteria decision analysis. Emergency planning actions are included in this new approach. Figure 11 gives information of a de minimis structure needed to involve multicriteria type information. The decision matrix would have to involve a finite number of options suitable to deal appropriately with an emergency situation. At the same time a relevant number of quantitative and qualitative criteria (indicators) have to be identified, agreed and accepted, in order to make an adequate ranking of the proposed emergency options. Figure 11 A multicriteria approach facility for emergency planning and preparedness

222


The use of IDSS is a complex process and very often would involve the use of a series of such analytical instruments (see Figure 12). For practical reasons one has to consider the development of such new tools or the refurbishment of existing ones for an ad hoc situation or for longer-term needs. The use of commercially available tools should also be strongly considered. Figure 12 The Decision Support System platform

Eventually, the integration of various types of DSS into a more problem-focused structure may also be considered (see Figure 13). Figure 13 Integration of various types of DSS features and architectures

The interaction between the modeller’s world and the stakeholder’s becomes an every day reality. Recent work done for the emergency services in the case of nuclear or chemical accidents is definitely in favour of this new approach (see Figure 14).


223

Figure 14 IDSS and stakeholders’ interaction

5

Conclusions

The increasing vulnerability of the industrial and societal infrastructures to disfunction and accidents, entails a renewed need for properly designed IDSS, capable of handling complex realities in a sophisticated yet stakeholder-transparent manner. The conceptual design of such tools is an enduring process that should progress by trial and feedback, in search of optimal architectures and responsive to actual needs perceived at the users’ end. The enhanced anticipative (predictive) and real-time monitoring capabilities call for acquisitions from the state-of-the- art GIS, information, and space technologies, as well as for a substantive multidisciplinary scientific background and modelling proficiency. The present work introduces the features and architecture of an experimental IDSS and it indicates its potential interaction with stakeholders in the decision-making process.

References 1 2 3 4 5

Gheorghe, A.V. and Mock, R. (1999) Risk Engineering: Bridging Risk Analysis with Stakeholders Values, Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht. Gheorghe, A.V. and Vamanu, D.V. (1997) Emergency Planning Knowledge, vdf Zürich. Kröger, W. (1998) ‘Risk assessment and safety management’ Swiss COMCAT National Conference, Bern. (1998) Guidelines for Integrated Regional Risk Assessment and Safety Management, IAEA, Vienna, Austria. (1998) Preliminary Research and Development Roadmap for Protecting and Assuring Critical National Infrastructures, Office for Critical Infrastructure Assurance, July, Washington DC.