If nothing would change -

If nothing would change Constant-rate projections of the European populations by migration background Giampaolo Lanzieri EUROSTAT

Eurostat

Eurostat Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018

Demographic transitions • First (FDT): “from quantity to quality” (births) • Second (SDT): “from king-child with parents to king-couple with child” • Third (TDT): “from majority to minority” (native populations)

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G. Lanzieri: "If nothing would change"

How many ‘foreign’ persons? Foreign-born

Foreign citizens 60.6 M

41.3 M

Source: author’s computations on Eurostat data (pop2ctz, pop4ctb). Note: foreigners in EU+EFTA are the sum of foreigners in each country. Eurostat Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018


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Migrants’ births increasing over time Native-born mothers

Foreign-born mothers

Births in EU+EFTA (in millions)

Source: author’s computations on Eurostat data (demo_facbc). Eurostat Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018


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Third Demographic Transition coming?

Source: author’s computations on Eurostat data (demo_facbc).

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Questions • Under the current demographic conditions: • Is the Third Demographic Transition materialising in the European countries? • Has migration the same effect / timing across ages?

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Status quo • Well-known approach in mathematical demography • Further challenges here: • • • •

Interplay of various components of migration Consistency of migration flows Possibility to incorporate future special events Evolution over time

long-term projections

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What makes it possible • EU Regulation on migration statistics (2007) and on demographic statistics (2013) • Country of birth (native-born, EU, non-EU) • Citizenship (national, EU, non-EU, stateless)

• Data now available for the few latest years • Input to this exercise: average of the period 2014-2016

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Preparing the data input • Challenging and (very) time-consuming task • Estimating hyper-cubes (from “or” to “and”) • Computationally demanding • Achieved and forthcoming ‘side outputs’: • • • •

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Test on quality of available data -> validation High disaggregation of migration data Consistent (disaggregated) demographic balances Intra-EU bilateral migration annual flows (by sex, NUTS3 region, single age, country of birth, citizenship) G. Lanzieri: "If nothing would change"


Migration background (MBG) Country of birth Citizenship

National citizenship Other EU citizenship Non-EU citizenship 10

Nativeborn

Born in Born other MS outside EU

NATnat

NEWoms

NEWneu

DESoms

IMMoms

IMMoms

DESneu

IMMneu

IMMneu



Geographic standpoint matters • The classification of an individual by his/her MBG depends upon the reporting country. • Examples: • A native-born person with national citizenship in a given Member State is, in another Member State, a foreign-born with EU citizenship other than national • A person born outside EU and holding a non-EU citizenship migrating from a EU MS to an EFTA country could be any combination of national/non-EU country of birth and citizenship in the receiving (nonEU) country 11



Migration flows and reclassification Into RoW

Into EU MS

From RoW

From EU MS

NAT

12

DES

NEW

NAT √

NEW

√

DES

NEW

√

√

√

√

√

√ √ √

√

√

NEW

√ √

√

√

√

√

√ √

√

√ √

√ √

√

DES

IMM √

√

NAT

IMM

NAT

√

DES

IMM

IMM

√ √


√

√ √

√

√


Integration by assimilation Births (from \ to)

NAT

NAT

√

IMM

NEW

IMM

√

NEW

√

DES

√*

(*) Jus soli applied for the “3rd generation” of migrants

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DES



Integration by multiculturalism Births (from \ to)

NAT

NAT

√

IMM

NEW

IMM

√

NEW

√

DES

14

DES

√



Acquisitions of citizenship Assimilation

NAT

IMM

IMM

DES

√

DES

√

Multiculturalism

NAT

15

NEW

IMM

NEW

IMM

√

DES

√


DES


Migration background: assimilation Natives (NAT)

MBG.L

MBG.M

Natives (NAT)

MBG.H

NATnat

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Foreigners (FOR)

New Citizens (NEW)

NEWoms

NEWneu

Immigrants (IMM)

IMMoms


IMMneu

Descendants (DES)

DESoms

DESneu


Migration background: multiculturalism

MBG.L

Natives (NAT)

MBG.M

Natives (NAT)

MBG.H

NATnat

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Foreigners (FOR)

New Citizens (NEW)

NEWoms

NEWneu

Immigrants (IMM)

IMMoms


IMMneu

Descendants (DES)

DESoms

DESneu


Data disaggregation in the process

Data

•SEX x AGE x COB x CTZ x…

Calc

•SEX x AGE x MBG.M

Out

•SEX x AGE x MBG.L

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Caveats • Input data: • Input immigration and emigration flows adjusted for consistency • Any special event occurred in 2014-2016 not excluded • Redistribution of unknowns • Some input data require investigation

• Technicalities: • Imputation of missing rates (not for acquisitions) • Further work on modelling of age patterns (ongoing)

• Assumptions: • No holders of multiple citizenship • New-borns take the citizenship of the mother (with one exception) • 2nd generation migrants have (double) higher probabilities of acquiring the citizenship of the hosting country than immigrants 19



Breakdown of the population base • • • •

Country of residence: 32 Age: 101 Sex: 2 Migration background: 4 …for a total of 25,856 categories!

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Migration-specific fertility Total fertility rate

Source: author’s estimates. Experimental results still under validation. Eurostat Seminar on Population G. Lanzieri: "If Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018

Age patterns

nothing would change"

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Constant-level immigration? • In a EU MS, for each sex and age (

=

+

, with

+

=

):

, ;

=

• Constant total immigration (changing RoW imm) =

−

−

• Constant non-EU immigration (changing total imm): =

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,

−



‘Brexit’ variant • Assumptions (applied from 2019): • UK attributed the migration flows from non-EU countries and a proportion of former EU flows (here arbitrarily set at one third) • Within the EU, Brexit affects the destination but not the size of the emigration flows from EU MSs directed to other EU MSs.

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Variants of the Status Quo scenario • Integration: • Assimilation (A) • Multiculturalism (M)

8 possible combinations

• Immigration (total size): • Fixed (F) • Changing (depending on intra-EU flows) (C)

• Brexit: • Yes (Y) • No (N) 24



Selected variants

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ACN

ACY

MCN

Assimilation

Assimilation

Multiculturalism

Changing total immigration



No Brexit

Brexit

No Brexit


Migration flows under Status Quo = + To the EU MSs

= + From the EU MSs

EU27

EU27

Source: author’s estimates. Experimental results still under validation. Eurostat Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018


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Matching the EU migration flows − EU net migration

= Intra-EU migration

EU27

EU27 Source: author’s estimates. Experimental results still under validation. Eurostat Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018


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Fewer but younger under Status Quo Total population

Old age dependency r.

-18.6% -27.6%

Source: author’s estimates. Experimental results still under validation. Eurostat Seminar on Population G. Lanzieri: "If Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018

nothing would change"

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Projected foreign population Total population

0-14 years old



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Speed of transition across ages ACN

MCN



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No TDT by 2100… Assimilation

Source: author’s estimates. Experimental results still under validation.

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…depending on integration type Multiculturalism

Source: author’s estimates. Experimental results still under validation.

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Population structure by 2100 ACN

Population in EU+EFTA (%)

MCN



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Population by MBG.M: an example LU in 2017

LU by 2100 (ACN)



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Answers • Under the current demographic conditions: • The effect of migration on population composition depends upon the integration type. • In multicultural societies, German-speaking countries would experience the TDT before the end of the century. Several other countries may follow would the conditions persist. • At the very beginning – well before the (semi) stableequivalent population is reached – the effect of migration on population composition would be larger (quicker TDT) in younger ages. However, this pattern does not necessarily apply to each single country. 35



Novelties of this exercise • • • • •

High level of data disaggregation (‘granularity’) Multi-country approach (consistency of intra-EU flows) New statistical perspective (‘migration background’) Different hypotheses on migrants integration Brexit

• Virtual extensions: • Sub-national breakdown (down to NUTS3) • Finer disaggregation of intra-EU migration flows • …and - naturally - changing rates… 36


Would you like to know more about? You are welcome to contact me: [email protected] or visit our website/database: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Eurostat Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends, Luxembourg, 13 November 2018


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