If the Senate Goes Republican, Get Ready for a Game of Musical Chairs

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All Politics is Digital Online Conversation Snapshots for Nine Key Senate Races

ALASKA

If the Senate Goes Republican, Get Ready for a Game of Musical Chairs With members of the House and Senate back home until after the election, Washington is already looking ahead to the makeup of the new Congress in January. Republicans are widely expected to retain their majority in the House, but the Senate appears to be up for grabs, with several seats currently polling within the margin of error. Although the election is still several weeks away, it is possible to make informed predictions now about which GOP senators will emerge as chairman or ranking member of each committee.

MARK BEGICH ( D )

Here’s a rundown of how you can expect to see things shake out for Republicans in the Senate.

#WomenKnowBetter #MakeDCListen #FixHobbyLobby

Senate Republican Procedures Differ from Those of the House As a reminder, Republicans in each chamber have very different procedures for selecting who will head each committee. In the House of Representatives, the leadership-dominated Republican Steering Committee determines the outcomes of what are often spirited races among multiple contenders. As part of that process, House leaders will sometimes elevate rising stars ahead of more senior committee members. In contrast, when it comes to choosing new chairmen and ranking members, Senate Republicans continue to rely on seniority. But they also limit how long someone can serve as the top Republican on committee. Thus, Senate Republicans employ a hybrid system that respects tradition (when elevating someone to the top slot) while imposing term limits on how long someone can serve as chairman or ranking member (a reform put in place after the “Republican Revolution” in 1994).

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Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

DAN SULLIVAN ( R )

72.9 M* 98.4 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #ProLife #GunSense #Obamacare

*All mentions of the candidate on Twitter

ARKANSAS Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

MARK PRYOR ( D )

95.5 M*

TOM COTTON ( R )

92 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #WomenKnowBetter #Obamacare #AmericanCrossroads

#Obamacare #WomenVote #ProLife

*All mentions of the candidate on Twitter

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Under the Rules of the Senate Republican Conference, a senator is limited to no more than six years as chairman and six years as ranking member of the same committee. Time served as ranking member does not count as time served as chairman. However, once a senator logs a total of six years as chairman, he or she has no more time available as ranking member. After committee assignments are made on the Senate side, Senate Republicans on each committee vote by secret ballot to select a colleague on that panel to serve as chairman or ranking member, subject to confirmation by the full Senate Republican Conference. Technically, Senate Republicans are not required to choose the person with the longest consecutive service on each committee to serve as chairman or ranking member. In practice, however, seniority continues to prevail. Many New Faces if Republicans Retake the Senate A Republican takeover of the Senate would result in most committees being chaired by a Republican who is not the current ranking member, setting off a game of musical chairs: •

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Two key senators who previously used up their six years as ranking member would reclaim their chairmanships if Republicans retake the Senate: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) at Armed Services and Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) at Appropriations. The two senators who would get bumped by Sens. McCain and Cochran would still find themselves with plum assignments. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), current ranking member at Armed Services, would become chairman of Environment and Public Works (EPW). Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) would lose the top GOP slot at Appropriations but reclaim the chairmanship of Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Sen. Inhofe’s return to EPW would displace Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), who currently serves as that panel’s ranking member. However, Sen. Vitter – who has announced he is

COLORADO Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

MARK UDALL ( D )

CORY GARDNER ( R ) 82.2 M*

213 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #HobbyLobby #Obamacare #WomenForUdall

#BirthControl #WarOnWomen #Koch

*Total candidate reach on Twitter

GEORGIA Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

MICHELLE NUNN ( D )

DAVID PERDUE ( R )

247 M*

217 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #Atlanta #GADemsConv #SamNunn

#SenateForum #APCDebates #Braves


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running for governor in 2015 – would be eligible to claim the chairmanship of the Small Business Committee. •

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Sen. Cochran’s return to Appropriations would allow Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) to reclaim the top slot at the Agriculture Committee, where he previously served as ranking member. If Sen. Roberts loses to independent Greg Orman – which would be a huge upset that was not on anybody’s radar screen earlier this year – Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) would leapfrog to the chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) would likely take over at the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. The current ranking member, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), has announced that he will leave Congress at the end of the year for health reasons. Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) would have the option to chair Veterans’ Affairs, where he currently serves as ranking member, or take over at the Intelligence Committee from retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA).

In addition to the changes discussed above, all eyes will be on Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA). Sen. Grassley is poised to move from ranking member to chairman of the Judiciary Committee, but is also eligible to reclaim the chairmanship of the Finance Committee – which would mean bumping Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who is currently the ranking member on Finance and is eager to take over as chairman in a Republican-controlled Senate.

LOUISIANA Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

MARY LANDRIEU ( D )

BILL CASSIDY ( R )

270 M*

67.3 M* 76.2 M*

ROB MANESS ( I ) What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #Hope4Jobs #VoteOnAction #Obamacare

#Hope4Jobs #VoteOnAction #MakeDCListen #RedStateRising #Obamacare #Congress

If Sen. Grassley opts for Finance, then Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), currently ranking member of the Budget Committee, would become chairman of the Judiciary Committee. (Interesting side note: Sen. Sessions’ nomination to be a federal judge was killed by the Judiciary Committee back in 1986.) Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY) would be expected to move into the chairmanship at Budget – a fitting assignment for one of two CPAs serving in the Senate. If Sen. Grassley stays at Judiciary and Sen. Hatch stays at Finance, at least six other senators are expected to take over as chairmen at the committees

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where they currently serve as ranking member: Sen. John Thune (R-SD) at Commerce; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) at Energy; Sen. Bob Corker (RTN) at Foreign Relations; Sen. Lamar Alexander (RTN) at Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP); Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) at Aging; and Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) at Indian Affairs.

MICHIGAN Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

GARY PETERS ( D

TERRI LAND ( R )

Less Turnover Among Ranking Members if Democrats Retain Control On the flip side, if Democrats retain control of the Senate, two-thirds of the committees would retain the same ranking members, including: Sen. Cochran at Agriculture, Sen. Shelby at Appropriations, Sen. Inhofe at Armed Services, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) at Banking, Sen. Sessions at Budget, Sen. Thune at Commerce, Sen. Vitter at EPW, Sen. Hatch at Finance, Sen. Corker at Foreign Relations, Sen. Alexander at HELP, Sen. Grassley at Judiciary, Sen. Roberts at Rules and Sen. Collins at Aging. However, several committees would get new ranking members: •

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If Sen. Murkowski relinquishes the top slot at Energy, she would take over from Sen. Barrasso at Indian Affairs.

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Sen. McCain would become ranking member at Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, taking over from Sen. Coburn who is leaving the Senate.

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Sen. Burr would become ranking member of Intelligence, taking over from Sen. Chambliss who is retiring – unless Sen. Burr seeks another waiver to continue his service as ranking member of Veterans’ Affairs, which his colleagues granted him in the current Congress.

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Sen. Barrasso would become the top Republican on the Energy Committee, unless Sen. Murkowski receives a waiver from her colleagues to exceed the six-year limit on service as ranking member.

If Sen. Burr takes over at Intelligence, then Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) is expected to become

75.2 M* 67.3 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #Obamacare #Detroit #NetNeutrality

#CommonCore #ComebackState #Detriot


IOWA Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

JONI ERNST ( R )

BRUCE BRALEY ( D )

71.9 M* 242 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #KochBuysGOP #HarkinSteakFry #RaiseTheWage

#KochBrothers #MakeDCListen #IosaStateFair


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ranking member at Veterans’ Affairs – which would free up Small Business for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). Past Challenges to Seniority Have Failed In years past, efforts to buck the seniority system when choosing new chairmen and ranking members among Senate Republicans have failed. The seniority system was briefly tested following the 2012 elections when Democrats retained the majority. Sen. Cochran, having hit the six-year cap as ranking member on Appropriations, invoked seniority to claim the top slot on the Agriculture Committee. Sen. Roberts, a farm state senator up for re-election in 2014, vowed to fight to retain his position as ranking member, but ended up deferring to seniority without forcing a vote of his colleagues. The seniority system could face a renewed challenge after the November election if Sen. Hatch tries to fight any effort by Sen. Grassley to claim the chairmanship of the Finance Committee. Sen. Enzi is a second wild card. As noted above, Sen. Enzi would likely chair the Budget Committee if Sen. Grassley opts for Finance and Sen. Sessions takes over at Judiciary. However, if Sen. Grassley stays at Judiciary, then Sen. Enzi could invoke seniority to bump Sen. Sessions at Budget or Sen. Alexander at HELP. Although the latter scenario seems particularly unlikely, Sen. Enzi has yet to make his intentions publicly known. The McConnell Factor

KENTUCKY Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

ALISON GRIMES ( D )

MITCH MCONNELL ( R )

337 M*

828 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #RaiseTheWage #CitizensUnited #EqualPay

#RaiseTheWage #Coal #CitizensUnited


NORTH CAROLINA Which Candidates are Dominating the Online Conversation?

KAY HAGAN ( D )

Thom Tillis ( R )

Nothing in politics is settled until the final ballot is counted on Election Day, and a lot could change in the next few weeks – just think, “Todd Akin.” 151 M*

At the moment, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the Republican leader, is locked in a competitive race for re-election. While the good money is still on a McConnell win in November, a McConnell loss could trigger major upheaval on the GOP side of the aisle, and a lot of chairs would get knocked over as Republicans scramble to find a seat before the music stops.

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211 M*

What They’re Talking About: Top Hashtags #Obamacare #RedNationRising #RaiseTheWage

#CoalAsh #Obamacare #ProLife
