IFIN's Morning Mirror - Money Control

IFIN’s Morning Mirror 12-Mar-12

SENSEX

3.7% NIFTY 5370.00

17772.10

2.9% DOLLAR 80.06

Markets: Quick Notes

0.0% GOLD $ 1708.73 (0.3%) OIL $ 106.84 (0.5%)

Market Valuations (Est. P.E Current year)

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex closed near 17500 led

Country

by gains metals, banks, capital goods and realty space taking cues from positive global markets. The BSE Sensex gained 357.72 points or 2.09% and settled at 17,503.24. The index touched a high and a low of 17,531.62 and 17,325.82

P.E

Country

P.E

India (Sensex)

17.53

USA (DOW)

13.61

Japan (Nikkei)

13.25

UK (FTSE100)

13.45

H.Kong (Hang Seng)

17.31

France (CAC40)

12.35

Kospi

11.13

Germany (DAX)

12.31

respectively. The BSE Mid-cap index gain 2.16% while Small-

Source: Bloomberg

Nifty vs. Institutional Activity

cap index was up by 1.30%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Metal up 4.72%, Bankex up 3.75%, Capital Goods up 3.59%, Consumer Durables up 2.86% and Realty up 2.67% were the

(Rs` Mn) 100000

top gainers while FMCG down 0.15% and IT down 0.15%

80000 60000

were the only losers. The top gainers on the Sensex were

Provisional Figures for Investments 5429 5281

5379

5385 5340

40000

Jindal Steel up 7.79%, Tata Steel up 6.48%, ICICI Bank up

20000

6.26%, L&T up 4.94% and Sterlite Industries up 4.48%. On the

0

5359

FII (LHS)

MF (LHS)

Nifty (RHS)

Source: SEBI

Fund Activity

Advance/Decline – NSE

Net Inflows (Provisional Figures) (Rs. Crores) Purchases 2.7

2,000

Number of Shares

5300 5200

top losers in the index.

9-Mar-2012 FIIs DIIs FII- Derivatives

3.0

2.5

1,600

2.0

1,200

400

5280

24-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 29-Feb 1-Mar 2-Mar 5-Mar

0.68%, HUL down 0.62% and Gail India down 0.56% were the

0.7

5400

(20000)

flip side, Wipro down 1.89%, ITC down 0.76%, Infosys down

800

5500

1.2

0.4

4039.93 1106.66 17731.65

1.5

0.4

Net

2755.28 1119.56 16927.75

1284.65 -12.9 803.9 Source: NSE

1.0

0.5

Sales

Today’s Economic Events

0.5

0

India

0.0 1-Mar 2-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 9-Mar

Nil Advance (LHS)

Decline (LHS)

Adv/Decl Ratio (RHS)

Global

Nil

Live Markets

Current Quote % Change

Shanghai 2,430 (0.4%)

As on 0730 hours IST SGX Hang Nikkei Nifty Seng 9,964 5,400 21,033 0.3% 0.5% (0.3%) Source: Bloomberg

1


Business News

Turnover - NSE 5359

Tata Chemicals’ North America unit signs up for $375 million loans:

150

160

108

140

132

120

Tata Chemicals, a maker of salts, alkalies and heavy

100

chemicals, signed loan facilities of $375 million , according

60

5340

80

5220

5340

123 5220

5280

5160

20

5222

0

help refinance an $825-million facility signed in 2008, the

5400

5280

130

40

to data compiled by Bloomberg. Proceeds will be used to

5334 134

01-Mar

02-Mar

05-Mar

Nifty (LHS)

data show. The new loans' mandated lead arrangers were

5100

06-Mar

07-Mar

09-Mar

Nse Cash Volume (RHS) (Rs bn)

Credit Agricole, Standard Chartered, Siemens Financial

Top Gainers – NSE

Services, Bank of Baroda and State Bank of India. Lead arrangers include Bank of America, Fifth Third Bank and

Total Traded Quantity

Symbol

Bank of Nova Scotia, the data show. The facilities include a

MCX RESURGERE TELEDATAIT BIRLACOT AARVEEDEN

revolving credit line of $40 million, a term loan of $135 million and another term loan of $200 million, all due February 2019, the data show. The borrowing unit was

Close Price

7,941,567 1,318,844 717,021 384,049 3,191

Change Price (%)

1,294.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 40.0

25 20 17 17 14

Tata Chemicals North America Inc.

Top Losers – NSE Total Traded Quantity

Symbol ANTGRAPHIC RESPONIND VLSFINANCE NRC GISOLUTION

Close Price

74,394 25,129 130,600 4,480 41

Change Price (%)

0.3 85.0 16.0 4.0 9.4

(17) (11) (10) (9) (8)

Volume Toppers - NSE 44.51 35.69

23.16 22.07

2

RPOWER

UNITECH

13.97

11.98

TATAMOTORS

Volumes (Rs.Bn)

HINDALCO

IFCI

HDIL

JPASSOCIAT

SUZLON

GVKPIL

17.23 16.80 16.56 16.48

LITL

45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00


Economic Update – India & Global

Domestic Indices

Greek Debt Swap Clears 95% Level as Euro Chiefs Ready for Call:

Domestic Indices Last Close Sensex 17,772 Nifty 5,370 CNX Midcap 7,759 CNX IT 6,581 Bankex 10,669 Auto 10,132 Metal 11,639 FMCG 4,167

Investors with 95.7 percent of Greece's privately held bonds will participate in the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history after the government said it will

% Change 1 Day MTD 1.5 0.1 0.5 (0.4) 0.8 0.6 0.3 (0.4) 1.3 2.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 (3.4) 0.1 (0.0)

YTD 15.0 16.0 26.9 7.2 33.5 24.4 25.2 3.3

trigger an option forcing them to take part. Stocks rose

Global Indices

while the euro dropped after the government said bondholders tendered 152 billion euros ($201 billion) of

% Change

Greek-law bonds, or 85.8 percent, in response to the offer

Greek law bonds to March 23, after which sweeteners will

Shanghai Nikkei 225 Straits Times Hang Seng DJIA S&P 500 FTSE Dollar Index

no longer be available. “The very strong and positive result

ADR

to swap their holdings. Twenty billion euros of foreign-law debt was also tendered, the Finance Ministry said in a statement. Greece extended its offer to holders of non-

provides a major opportunity now for Greece to move

Last Close 2,439 9,930 2,963 21,086 12,922 1,371 5,887 80

(Converted to INR)

ADR Close NSE Close 2,906 2880 927 929 235 238 573 524 118 116

Bank AG (DBK), said in an e-mailed statement. “These are

YTD 10.5 18.0 12.1 14.1 5.8 9.0 5.7 (0.2)

1 Day 0.9 (0.2) (1.4) 8.6 1.3

1Mth (1.8) (1.6) 0.2 7.6 74.5

% Change Close Unit 1 Day MTD $/Bbl 107 (0.5) (0.2) $/Oz 1,709 (0.3) 0.7 $/MT 8,502 2.1 0.1 $/MT 2,198 1.6 (3.9) $/MT#N/A N/A #N/A N/A#N/A N/A $/MT 2,070 1.0 (2.0) 824 1.5 0.3

YTD 8.1 9.3 12.0 10.2 6.4 12.2 5.7

INFOSYS ICICI BANK TATA COM HDFC BANK STERLITE

Finance who is also chief executive officer of Deutsche

MTD 0.1 2.6 (0.9) (3.0) (0.2) 0.4 0.3 1.7

Prem / (Disc) in (%)

ahead with its economic reform program,” Josef Ackermann, chairman of the Institute of International

1 Day (0.4) 0.4 0.1 (0.3) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0

Commodity Prices

important steps towards resolving the Greek debt crisis, addressing the overall fiscal and sovereign debt problems in the euro area, and restoring financial stability.”

Crude Oil(NYME) Gold (OTC) Copper (LME) Aluminum (LME) Sugar (LIFFE) Zinc (LME) Baltic Dry Index

Currency Rate

USD/INR EURO/INR GBP/INR

Source: Bloomberg, Economic times, Business standard, Mint, DNA Money, Business Line

Last Close 49.93 65.37 78.24

% Change 1day MTD (0.1) (1.8) 0.8 0.8 0.5 (0.1)

YTD 6.3 5.2 5.4 Source: Bloomberg

3


Insiders Trades Company

Acquirer/Seller

Asian Granito India Ltd Filmcity Media Ltd

Pat Financial Consultants Pvt Ltd S J Vision Pvt Ltd

Qty

Bought/Sold

B B

102000 12500000

Source: BSE & NSE

Bulk Deals Company Clarus Finance Dinesh Allorga

Acquirer MONO HERBICIDES LIMITED NA

Qty 187719 -

Price 35.75 -

GFLFIN

NA

-

-

Nimbus Inds Ranklin Sol-$

NA NA

-

-

Seller NA DEEPA SOMABHAI PATEL JEHOVAH LABORATRIES PRIVATELIMITED RAXABEN H PANDYA KARRA MOHANA RAO

Qty 18250

Price 72.96

40000

24

43200 25500

19.62 8.64

Source: BSE & NSE, NA – Not Available

Corporate Actions

Board Meetings Date

Company

12-Mar

NANDAN

Purpose Board meeting Rescheduled

12-Mar

COALINDIA

Interim Dividend

13-Mar

BAJAJHIND

Amalgamation / Merger

14-Mar

JPPOWER

Raising of Funds

14-Mar

JPINFRATEC

Raising of Funds

14-Mar

TVSMOTOR

Interim Dividend

15-Mar

ONGC

Interim Dividend

Ex Date Company

Purpose

12/Mar ACC

DIVIDEND RS.17/- PER SHARE

13/Mar KPIT

BONUS 1:1

13/Mar EICHERMOT

DIVIDEND-RS.16 PER SHARE

13/Mar CRISIL

DIVIDEND - RS. 2.75/- PER SHARE

13/Mar KMSUGAR

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

27/Mar MERCK

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

Source: NSE

4


Technical Corner – NIFTY Key Statistics Turnover in Cr.

%Change

13447.97

0.09

India VIX 26.33

Momentum

Moving Average

Bollinger Band

14 Day RSI

52.00

20 day EMA

5330

B. Upper

5612

% Change

MACD

-74.72

50 day EMA

5221

B. Lower

5186

-3.26

Stoch

37.06

200 day EMA

5190

Band Width

0.08

Daily Chart

Technical View Bulls took a breather after a sharp rally and witnessed profit booking. The daily chart on NIFTY suggests that the NIFTY has immediate resistance at 5540. If it breaks 5540/5560 we could see the next key resistance levels of 5640 or even 5703. On the downs side, the NIFTY has found the support at 5460 and 5410 levels. Technically the short term trend on NIFTY is likely to remain positive and the next hurdle for NIFTY is seen at 5690/5700 levels. On the downside, Breakout of 5350/5320 would invite fresh selling pressure.

Close

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

5333.55

5353

5373

5424

5302

5271

5220

Day Trading Strategy

Intraday Market Outlook: Nifty may would see gap up opening and it would test at 5370 and 5390 levels. If its moves above 5390 and then we would see 5420 and 5450 levels. On the downside, the support for the nifty is seen at 5290 and 5240 levels. Short term fresh buying can be expected only if nifty breaks 5450 on weekly closing basis.

Technical Diary (Intra-day) BULLISH

NEUTRAL

BEARISH

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

5


Day Trading Guide – Pivot Point (Equity) Scrip Name NIFTY

Close 5334

R2 5393

R1 5354

PP 5322

S1 5291

S2 5252

Scrip Name M&M

Close 677

R2 707

R1 689

PP 674

S1 660

S2 641

BANKNIFTY

10506

10771

10588

10440

10292

10108

MARUTI

1341

1394

1364

1340

1316

1286

CNXIT

6558

6706

6635

6577

6520

6448

NATIONALUM

61

66

63

60

58

55

ABB

846

876

855

839

823

803

NEYVELILIG

86

89

87

86

84

82

ACC

1319

1359

1336

1317

1298

1275

NTPC

174

179

176

173

170

166

AMBUJACEM

163

167

165

163

161

158

ONGC

283

288

285

282

280

276

AXISBANK

1213

1253

1227

1206

1185

1159

PNB

958

978

964

953

942

928

BHARTIARTL

339

349

342

337

331

324

POWERGRID

110

112

111

110

109

108

BHEL

279

288

282

277

273

267

RANBAXY

416

435

426

419

412

403

BPCL

664

684

670

660

649

636

RCOM

95

98

96

94

93

91

BAJAJ-AUTO

1753

1805

1778

1756

1734

1707

RELCAPITAL

420

439

427

417

408

396

CAIRN

375

391

380

371

362

351

RELIANCE

774

789

781

774

768

760

CIPLA

308

315

311

309

306

302

RELINFRA

639

671

652

637

622

603

DLF

203

203

203

203

203

203

RPOWER

131

140

136

132

129

124

DRREDDY

1702

1720

1711

1703

1696

1686

SCI

70

80

75

70

66

60

GAIL

349

358

353

350

346

342

SESAGOA

201

210

205

201

196

191

GRASIM

2714

2790

2738

2695

2652

2600

SAIL

95

98

96

94

92

90

HCLTECH

507

528

516

506

496

484

SBIN

2226

2295

2253

2219

2185

2143

HDFC

681

704

688

675

661

645

SIEMENS

789

827

809

793

778

759

HDFCBANK

523

533

528

523

519

513

SOBHA

280

294

285

278

270

261

HEROMOTOCO

1911

1972

1939

1912

1885

1851

STER

114

118

116

114

112

110

HINDALCO

135

140

137

134

132

129

SUNPHARMA

570

589

578

569

561

550

HINDUNILVR

382

394

388

384

379

374

SINTEX

84

89

85

82

80

76

ICICIBANK

914

959

928

902

877

846

SUNTV

317

326

321

317

313

307

IDEA

94

97

95

94

93

92

SUZLON

28

29

28

28

27

26

IDFC

146

153

148

145

141

136

TATAMOTORS

281

292

284

278

272

265

INFY

2855

2945

2903

2869

2835

2793

TATAPOWER

109

114

111

109

107

105

ITC

208

217

213

210

206

202

TATACOMM

236

243

239

236

232

228

JINDALSTEL

575

617

589

567

545

517

TATASTEEL

455

483

464

448

432

413

JISLJALEQS

104

109

105

103

100

97

TCS

1209

1246

1228

1213

1198

1180

JPASSOCIAT

78

83

80

77

75

72

TECHM

641

695

662

635

608

575

JPPOWER

42

43

42

41

41

40

TITAN

240

252

244

238

231

223

JSWSTEEL

748

801

765

736

707

671

TRIVENI

18

19

19

18

18

17

KFA

21

24

22

21

19

18

TTML

15

16

16

15

15

14

KOTAKBANK

558

576

566

558

550

540

TULIP

100

105

102

101

99

96

7

8

7

7

7

6

TNPL

103

110

106

102

99

95

LICHSGFIN

245

245

245

245

245

245

UCOBANK

82

91

86

82

78

73

LITL

20

22

21

20

19

18

ULTRACEMCO

1473

1547

1498

1459

1419

1370

LT

1302

1360

1322

1291

1260

1222

UNIONBANK

236

246

240

236

232

227

LUPIN

502

528

515

505

495

483

UNIPHOS

137

142

139

137

135

133

471

UNITECH

30

32

31

30

29

28

KSOILS

MCDOWELL-N

531

572

544

522

499

MCLEODRUSS

235

248

242

237

231

225

WELCORP

142

154

146

139

132

124

MRF

9818

10235

9985

9782

9580

9329

WIPRO

432

462

448

437

425

411

MOSERBAER

19

20

20

19

19

18

YESBANK

366

399

378

360

343

321

MPHASIS

405

429

413

401

389

373

ZEEL

137

146

142

138

135

131

PP – Pivot Point, R1 – Resistance1, S1 – Support, R2 – Resistance2, S2 – Support2: How to trade Pivot points: If the stock opens above PP then go Long and Keep S1 as the stop loss for a possible target of R1/R2. If the stock opens below PP then go short and Keep R1 as the stop loss for a possible target of S1/S2.

6


RESEARCH TEAM Devarajan. S Technical & Derivative Strategist 044 - 28306686 [email protected]

Balasundaram. S

Pathanjali. C.K

Research Analyst [email protected]

Research Analyst [email protected]

IFIN Reports are also available on the Bloomberg (IFCI )

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