From that, I extend my sincere thanks to my supervisor Professor Pius Z. Yanda, ... Table of Contents vi. List of Tables xi. List of Figures xii. List of Abbreviations.
IMP ACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON CROP PRODUCTION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS TO FOOD SECURITY A Case of Mvomero District, Tanzania
Msafiri Yusupb Mkonda
MSc. (NARAM) Dissertation University of Dar es Salaam December, 2011
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON CROP PRODUCTION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS TO FOOD SECURITY A case of Mvomero District, Tanzania
By
Msafiri Yusuph Mkonda
A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment ofthe Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Natural Resource Assessment and Management of the University ofDar es Salaam.
University of Dar es Salaam December, 2011
CERTIFICATION The undersigned certifies that he has read and hereby recommends for acceptance by the University of Dar es Salaam a dissertation entitled: "Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Crop Production and Its Implications to Food Security in Tanzania: A Case of Mvomero District", in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Natural Re
urces Assessment and Management of the University
of Dar es Salaam.
Prof. Pius Z. Yanda
(Supervisor)
t-
()3·o
~O\~
Date-------------------------------
ii
DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT I, Msafiri Yusuph Mkonda, declare that this dissertation is my own original work and that it has not been presented and will not be presented to any other University for a similar or any other degree award.
This dissertation is copyright material protected under the Berne Convention, the Copyright Act 1999 and other international and national enactments, in that behalf, on intellectual property. It may not be reproduced by any means, in full or part, except for short extracts in fair dealings, for research or private study, critical scholarly review or discourse with an acknowledgement,
without written permission of the Director of
Postgraduate Studies, on behalf of both the author and the University ofDar es Salaam.
III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I thank the Almighty God for his love, peace and health offered to me during the coursework and the preparation of this dissertation.
From that, I extend my sincere thanks to my supervisor Professor Pius Z. Yanda, for his tireless support and excellent guidance to my study.
Also, my sincere gratitude goes to my employer SUA for sponsoring my studies through the Academic Staff Development Fund of the Ministry of Education and Vocational Training, United Republic of Tanzania.
Moreover, I unfold a package of thanks to IRA staff members as well as my classmates (NARAM Students 2009/2011) for their closest support during the preparation of this report.
Lastly, I wind up my appreciation to different government offices and officials for their good cooperation offered to me. In specific, I direct my special thanks to Mr. Lumweli who is working as Assistant Director, Crop Monitoring and Early Warning, National Food Security
Division, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security for his supportive
data he gave me when I visited his office seeking for data based on food security.
IV
DEDICATION I humbly dedicate my special massage to my beloved late mother, Marry Kisinda who passed away when I was undertaking this programme (MSc. NARAM) at this University (UDSM). May God Rest Her Soul In Eternal Peace, Amen .
....... ..In Memory of My Beloved Mother
.
v
ABSTRACT This study assessed the impacts of climate change and variability on crop production and its implications to food security in Mvomero District, Tanzania. Large part of the study area has already experienced food insecurity. A sample size of 7% of all household heads were sampled at random from the two villages and interviewed through questionnaires. Also; FGD, interview with key informants and participant observation survey were used to collect data. Rainfall and temperature data were collected from Kongwa and Kinyasungwe meteological stations, and from farmers. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 12 and MS-Excel. The analyzed data were presented into tables and figures. Analysis show that the trend based on mean annual rainfall data provide general impression which may not capture actual situation on the ground particularly on droughts and associated crop failures in the field. Hence, the number of wet spells were analysed. The result show that there is no correlation between the amount of rainfall and the number of wet spells. The study area has been recording high rainfall with fewer wetspells and the vice versa. Also, it has been found that a good number of wet spells which are fairly distributed within a growing season is a good determinant
factor for better crop production
due to
sustainabililty of moisture. Also, an increase in temperature leads to severe drought due to evapotranspiration. Severe drought has lead to poor crop yields and subsequently food insecurity.
Therefore,
to ensure food security;
mechanisms are recommended, some of these
adaptation
measures
and coping
include; the use of drought resistant
crops, irrigation, mixed farming, and implementation of seasonal climate forecasting.
VI
TABLE OF CONTENTS Pages Certification
i
Declaration and Copyright
ii
Acknowledgements
iii
Dedication
iv
Abstract
V
Table of Contents
vi
List of Tables
xi
List of Figures
xii
List of Abbreviations
xiii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1
1.1 Background Information
1
1.2 Statement of the Problem
3
1.3 Objectives of the Study
3
1.3.1 General Objective
3
1.3.2 Specific Objectives
4
1.4 Research Questions
4
1.5 Justification of the Study
4
vii
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
6
2.1 Introduction
6
2.2 A Conceptual Framework
6
2.3 Definition and Conceptualization of Key Terms
9
2.3.1 Climate Change
9
2.3.2 Climate Variability
9
2.3.3 Vulnerability
9
2.4 An Overview of Climate Change and its Temporal Trend
11
2.5 Significance of Agriculture
11
2.6 Impacts of Climate Change and Vulnerability on Agriculture
13
2.6.1 Rainfall
13
2.6.2 Temperature
14
2.7 Non-climatic Factors Affecting Crop Production
15
2.8 Farmers Responses to the Impacts of Climate Change and Vulnerability
16
2.9 Research Gaps
16
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY
17
3.1 Introduction
17
3.2 Description of the Study Area
17
3.2.1 Location
17
Vlll
3.3 Biophysical and Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Study Area
19
3.3.1 Climate
19
3.3.2 Population
19
3.3.3 Socio-Economic Activities
20
3.3.4 Drainage
21
3.3.5 Transport and Communication
22
3.3.6 Selection of the Study Area
22
3.4 Data Collection Procedures
23
3.4.1 Sampling Design, Procedure and Sample Size
23
3.4.2 Reconnaissance Survey
24
3.5 Methods for Data Collection and Analysis
24
3.5.1 Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends Over time
24
3.5.2 Assessment of Production Trends of Key Crops
25
3.5.3 Linking Temporal Rainfall and Temperature Trends and Crop Production
27
3.5.4 Documentation of Non-climatic Factors Affecting Crop Production
27
3.6 Data Analysis and Presentation
28
3.6.1 Data Analysis
28
3.6.2 Presentation of Results
28
IX
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
29
4.1
29
Introduction
4.2 Analysis of Socio-Economic Vulnerability Factors
29
4.2.1 Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents
29
4.2.3 Major Socio-Economic Activities
31
4.2.4 Farmers Perception on Climate Change and Vulnerability
32
4.3 Analysis of Climatic Characteristics
33
4.3.1 Seasonal Rainfall Trends
33
4.3.1.1 February
38
4.3.1.2 March
38
4.3.1.3 April
39
4.3.2 Seasonal Temperature Trends
39
4.4 Trends of Crop Production
42
4.4.1. Trend of Crop Production at the National Level
42
4.4.2 Trends of Crop Production in the Study Area
43
4.4.2.1 Trend of Rice Production in the Study Area
.44
4.4.2.2 Trend of Maize production in the Study Area
44
4.4.2.3 Trend of Sorghum Production in the Study Area
44
4.5 Linking Temporal Rainfall and Temperature Trends and Crop Production
.46
x
4.6 Non-climatic Factors Affecting Crop Production
51
4.6.1 Weeds
51
4.6.2 Pests
52
4.6.3 Land Degradation
52
4.6.4 Diseases
53
4.7 Farmers' Response to the Impacts ofCC&V in the Study Area
53
4.8 The Implications of Crop Yields on Food Security
55
4.8.1 The Implications at National Level..
55
4.8.2 The Implications at Local Level (Makuyu and MvomeroVillages)
57
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION
59
AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Introduction
59
5.2 Conclusion
59
5.3 Recommendation
60
REFERENCE
63
APPENDICES
68
Xl
LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Examples of Factors that Influence Vulnerability
Pages 10
Table 2: Key Crops Grown in Mvomero District by Production Level (200812009)
21
Table 3: Percentage of Utility among the Key Crops
32
Table 4: Adopted Crops in the Study Area
54
xii
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: A Conceptual Framework ofthe Study
8
Figure 2: A Sketch Map of the Study Area (Mvomero District)
18
Figure 3: Farmer Respondents by Sex and Age Group
30
Figure 4: The levels of Education of Household Heads
31
Figure 5: Mean Annual Rainfall from 1990 to 2010 at Kongwa Meteorological Station
34
Figure 6: Rainfall Variability for; February, March and April in the Study Area from the Year 1990 to 2010
35
Figure 7: Number of Wet Spells per Month in the Study Area during the Growing Seasons from the Year 1990 to 2010
36
Figure 8: Mean Annual Temperature (1990 - 2010) at Kinyasungwe Hydromet Station
40
Figure 9: Temperature Variability for; February, March and April in the Study Area ..41 Figure 10: Rice, Maize and Sorghum Production at National Level (1990- 2010)
.43
Figure 11: Key Crops Expressed in Ton per Hectare in Mvomero District (1990 - 2010)
45
Figure 12: Non-climatic Factors Affecting Crop Production in the Study Area
51
Figure 13: SSR from 2000/01 to 201012011 Based on the Few Selected Regions
56
xiii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ASDP CC&V
Agricultural Sector Development Programme Climate Change and Variability
DALDO
District Agriculture and Livestock Development Officer
DAS
District Administrative Secretary
FGD
Focus Group Discussion
IPCC
Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change
IRA
Institute of Resource Assessment
KK
Kilimo Kwanza
MAFC
Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Co-operation
NSGR
National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty
PRA
Participatory Rural Appraisal
SIMABP
Smithsonian Institution Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity Programme
SSA
Sub-Saharan Africa
SSR
Self Sufficient Ratio
SUA
Sokoine University of Agriculture
UDSM
University of'Dar-Es-Salaam
UNFCCC
United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change
URT
United Republic of Tanzania
YEO
Village Executive Secretary
WEO
Ward Executive Secretary
1
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Information Climate change and variability is a global challenge to both sustainable livelihoods and economic development (URT, 2007). Because of its global nature and its prominent potential impacts on economic outcomes; climate change is increasingly becoming one of the critical domestic and global environmental policy concerns (Aldy et al. 2009).
Adverse impacts of climate change and variability are now evident in many parts of the world (URT, 2007). This is because rural households in developing countries rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources such as local water supplies and agricultural land for their livelihoods (Orindi and Murray, 2005).
African
agriculture
industrialization
is already
under stress as a result of population
and urbanization,
competition
increase,
over resource use, degradation
of
resources, and insufficient public spending for rural infrastructure and services (ibid). Thus, the impacts of climate change and variability are likely to exacerbate these stresses even further. However, african countries including Tanzania contribute less to global warming and yet are the most affected ones due to their dependence on rain-fed agriculture with low technology (Yanda, et.al, 2010).
The vulnerability of poor countries to the impacts of climate change and vulnerability (CC&V) and their limitations to adapt to climate change challenges are highlighted in IPCC (2007). As a response to these challenges, different treaties, conventions and
2
declarations have been signed globally as one way of addressing the challenge through mitigation and adaptation. For example, The Kyoto Protocol focuses on the promotion of sustainable forms of agriculture in the light of climate change considerations (Salinger et al., 2000). Despite these efforts at a global level, intervention are equally required at a local level since impacts of climate change are locally based. As a result, climate change and variability impacts are hindering
poverty alleviation efforts in
developing countries.
Recent research findings reveal that, Tanzania is among the countries suffering from the impacts of CC& V and related hazards such as floods and droughts, which have substantially affected economic performance and undermined poverty reduction efforts (URT, 2007). According to Majule (2008), agricultural sector is a key to economic development
in Tanzania.
Over 70% of the population
depends on subsistence
agriculture which is almost entirely rain- fed. Agriculture accounts for an average of 50% of Gross Net Product and about 66% of total export earnings (ibid). Furthermore, reports from the World Bank (2002) and BoT (2008) show that there was a rapid decline in the contribution of agricultural sector to GDP from 45.1 % in 2000 to 26.7% in 2007.
There is a wealth of literature which document on the impacts of climate change and vulnerability on agriculture in Tanzania. Some of such studies include: Mwandosya, et a/., (1998), Yanda, et a/., (2006); IPPC (2007); Lyimo (2007), Hyera (2007) and Majule (2008). However, most of these studies provide a general overview at a national level and often they do overlook the role of non-climatic factors in the assessment. Therefore,
3
this study attempts to assess climate change and vulnerability at the local level, Moreover, the study integrates non-climatic factors affecting crop production in order to bridge this knowledge gap.
1.2 Statement of the Problem Most of the information on the impact of climate change and vulnerability on crop production is at global, regional and national level. Hence, there is limited information at local level due to limited studies that have been undertaken at that scale. Thus, more researches need to be done in order to explore and document information at the local level.
Since crop production is affected by the impacts of climate change and vulnerability in Tanzania, this implies that the livelihood of about 80% of the people who entirely depend on agriculture is at risk (URT, 2009). Therefore, the intent of this study is to establish the extent to which climate change and vulnerability has impacted on crop production and the implication of this impact on food security in Mvomero district. Information to be obtained from this study would be useful in designing measures to reduce impacts of climate change and vulnerability and
increase adaptation capacity of
communities in the study area.
1.3 Objectives of the Study 1.3.1 General Objective The overall objective of the study is to examine the impacts of climate change and variability on crop production and its implication to food security in Mvomero District.
4
1.3.2 Specific Objectives a) To assess the temporal trends of rainfall and temperature in the area of study. b)
To assess the production trends of key crops overtime.
c)
To establish relationship between temporal rainfall and temperature patterns against crops production.
d) To document other non-climatic factors affecting crop production in the area.
1.4 Research Questions a) What are the peoples' perceptions on climate change and variability? b) What is the temperature and rainfall pattern over time? c) What is the temporal pattern of crop production? d) To what extent does climate change and variability affect crop production? e) What other non-climatic factors affect crop production in the study area?
1.5 Justification According to vulnerability
of the Study
IPee
(2007), there
will seriously
IS
substantial evidence that climate change and
affect all productive
sectors. These sectors
include
agriculture which is a backbone of many Sub-Saharan African countries' economy. Also fishing, forestry, wildlife, tourism and other small scale socio-economic sectors are susceptible to the impacts of climate change and vulnerability. In Tanzania, the impacts of climate change and vulnerability on agriculture, food security and nutrition are of major concern. Thus, if no strategies are deliberately undertaken to reduce such impacts, more socio-economic problems are expected to happen at present and in the future. Thus
/
5
at the local and national level, this study will contribute to information generation that can be used to develop strategies for enhancing food security, productivity as well as supporting the efforts of Kilimo Kwanza initiative, National Vision 2025, Agricultural Sector Development Programme and MKUKUT A.
In Mvomero District, crop production serves as a source of livelihood of the people in the area. As it is for other parts of the country, crop production in the district is experiencing the impacts of climate change and vulnerability. Hence, there is a need to establish how climate change and variability is impacting crop production so as to propose adaptation measures to improve the peoples' livelihoods.
Furthermore, at academic level the study will contribute to the existing body of knowledge on the impacts of climate change and variability alongside crop production at local, national, regional and international level.
The study will also contribute to bridge the knowledge gap that exists between the local and international level on the scale of impacts and spatial variation on extent of impacts. Moreover, the study expects to reinforce the ongoing debate on impacts of climate change and vulnerability on agriculture particularly the rain-fed agriculture. At national level the study intends to inform policy makers about the need to develop informed adaptation measures which can enhance productivity and consequently food security.
6
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction This chapter presents literature review from various sources including journal papers, annual reports, books and other electronic sources related to the study. The chapter describes the conceptual framework, definitions of the key terms. It also presents a general overview on climate change and vulnerability, and impacts of climate change and vulnerability on crop production. Finally, it outlines research gaps which form the basis of this study.
2.2 A Conceptual Framework A theoretical framework is a sketch description or diagrammatic
presentation
of
variables to be studied and theoretical relationships between and among these variables. According to Kajembe (1994), any research performed without the guidance of the conceptual framework, is usually sterile for the reason that the researcher doesn't know quite well what data to collect, when he/she has them and he/she can't put them into use. Therefore, hereunder is a conceptual framework adopted and designed to fit this study. It is represented in Figure 1 below.
The figure shows the impacts of climate change and variability on crop production and its implication to food security. In this conceptual framework, vulnerability context such as shocks, trends and seasons have adverse impacts on livelihood assets such as human, natural, social, physical and financial capital. Also, this situation leads to increased
7
socio-economic vulnerability of communities'
livelihoods which may lead to reduced
socio-economic conditions including poor crop yields. The poor crop yields may lead to food insecurity. As a response to the impacts of climate change and variability, communities establish coping and adaptation mechanisms as strategies to improve their livelihoods. Successful implementation
of these livelihood strategies may lead to
improved livelihoods such as increased sustainable use of natural resources base, improved income, improved well-being, reduced vulnerability
and improved food
security. Therefore, the central question in this study is: to what extent does this conceptual framework apply in Mvomero district?
8
Impacts of Climate Change and Variability
• • •
• •
• •
•
• •
• •
•
• •
Vulnerability Shocks Trends Seasons
Context
Livelihood Assets Human capital Natural capital Social capital Physical capital Financial capital
Livelihood strategies Coping mechanisms Adaptation mechanisms
Livelihood outcomes Increased sustainable use of natural resources base Improved income Improved well-being Reduced vulnerability Improved food security
Figure 1: A Conceptual Framework of the Study Source: Modified from the Sustainable Livelihood Framework (Baumann, 2002)
9
2.3 Definition and Conceptualization
of Key Terms
2.3.1 Climate Change According to IPCC (2007) climate change refers to any change in climate over time due to natural variability or as a result of human activities (lPCC, 2007). However, according to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change, climate change refers to a change in climate that is attributable directly or indirectly to human activities that alter atmospheric composition (Olmos, 2001). Therefore, climate change can be defined as the changes in the average climate in long-term trends such as changes in temperature and rainfall (Olmos, 2001 in Majule, 2008).
2.3.2 Climate Variability Climate variability refers to the variation around the average climate including seasonal variation in atmospheric and ocean circulation such as the EI Nino and Southern Oscillations. It is the shift from normal experienced rainfall pattern of seasons to abnormal rain pattern including temperature (Majule, 2008). The impacts of CC& V are one of the primary environmental concerns of the 21 st century, and this has direct and indirect effects on people's lives (Orindi and Murray, 2005).
2.3.3 Vulnerability Vulnerability refers to the likelihood that an individual or a group of individuals will be exposed to and adversely affected by dreadful conditions (Majule, 2008). However, Galvin, et al., 2001; Olmos, 2001 and Majule, et al., 2007a&b further defined vulnerability as characteristics of individual or groups in terms of their capacity to
10
anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impacts of environmental change. Furthermore, vulnerability can be described as a state and as a set of factors that constitute that state and dispose certain individuals and groups as "vulnerable" (Adger, 2006). Vulnerability characteristics:
is typically described to be a function of three overlapping
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Turner et al., 2003).
Therefore, shown in Table 1 are examples of factors that influence vulnerability in the aspects of institutions, economic and environment.
Table 1: Examples of Factors that Influence Vulnerability Institutional Factors ~
Informal skills
~
Labour
~
Local knowledge
~
Health
~
Formal
~
Access
education,
~
Informal network
~
Formal
~
of
local
institutions
~
to
natural
~
Degraded environment
Access to communal
~
High dependence of
climate
particular
sensitive
sectors
biodiversity
and
natural
Access to alternative
resources
economic opportunities Source: Eriksen and Noes (2003)
Risk environment
natural resources
security
network Strength
~
resources
skills and technology
~
Environmental Factors
Economic Factors
in
~
Communal lands and resources
11
2.4 An Overview of Climate Change and its Temporal Trend A brief overview of predicted impacts of climate change and vulnerability is necessary in order to understand their interaction (Paavola, et a/., 2006). East Africa is predicted to warm by about 2 - 4 Co by 2100, somewhat less than the Mediterranean north-western Africa and the inner South Africa. Furthermore, inner parts of East Africa and Tanzania are predicted to experience higher temperature increases than the coastal areas (ibid). Also, rainfall is predicted to decrease by about 0 - 20% in the inner parts of the region and the country, with dry season(s) becoming longer and having less rainfall. In contrast, rainfall is predicted to increase by 30-50% in the coastal areas (Mwandosya & Luhanga, 1998).
According to IPCC (2007), there is substantial evidence that climate change and variability will seriously affect all productive sectors. Some of these sectors include agriculture, forestry, tourism, wildlife and water at large. Liwenga, et al., (2008) indicated that local peoples' perceptions on climate change and variability are based on assessment of several climate attributes and incidences of pest and diseases.
2.5 Significance of Agriculture Globally, agriculture is important for food security in two ways; it produces food for people to eat and it is a primary source of employment for 36% of the world's total workforce (FAO, 2008). In sub-Saharan Africa, two-third of the working population still make their living from agriculture (lLO, 2007). Tanzania has about 88.6 millions hectares of land suitable for agricultural production, including 60 millions hectares of
12
rangeland suitable for livestock grazing (URT, 2007). Thus, agriculture is the lead sector, accounting for 45% of GDP and about 60% of export earnings in the past three years (URT, 2009). It is a source of food and raw materials for industries. It also provides livelihoods to 82% of the population. Agriculture as a sector has been experiencing crop failure due to a number of factors including drought and floods.
Despite the contribution of agriculture to GDP, the production trends of crop particularly food crops in the country seem to fluctuate more alarmingly. There are a number of food crops grown in the country some of these include; rice, maize, sorghum, wheat, cassava, banana and potatoes. These crops are grown in different areas depending on climate, soil properties and technology of the particular society.
The fluctuation of crop production in the country as shown by the GDP above is attributed to a number of factors including the impacts of climate change and variability particularly prolonged drought, increase in temperature and excessive rainfall in the area. An example of the fluctuating trends of crop production is seen from the maize, rice and sorghum production from the season of 1997 to 2010 (URT, 2007). From 20th century, the spatial extent of Mount Kilimanjaro ice cap has decreased by 80% due to global warming and has been affecting water availability downstream particularly the flow of river Pangani (URT, 2007). The decline in the flow of river Pangani has negatively affected irrigation agriculture and livestock production (Yanda, et al., 2006).
13
At the local level, over 78% of the total households' income and food in both Mvomero and Kilosa Districts are from agricultural activities. The key crops produced in the districts are; maize, sweet potatoes, cassava, sorghum and rice (Hyera, 2007).
2.6 Impacts of Climate Change and Vulnerability
on Agriculture
In Sub-Saharan African countries, drought and floods are the two major impacts of climate change and vulnerability with negative effects on agriculture (Polskya, et al., 2007). Drought is a function of prolonged dry spells due to accumulation of consecutive '.
dry days while floods occur as a function of prolonged and excessive rainfall. Rainfall and temperature are the key determinants for agricultural production because they have both positive and negative impacts. The impacts of climate change and variability in agriculture vary depending on agro-ecological
zones. Some areas experience more
negative impacts while others experiences relatively positive impacts (Majule, et al., 2008). Therefore, the two aspects in agriculture are discussed below:
2.6.1 Rainfall Generally, rainfall m Tanzania is unevenly distributed.
The rainfall patterns are
subdivided into four different sub-climatic regions. The first is the tropical climate which is experienced along the coast. This region is hot and humid with rains occurring between March-May. The second is a semi-temperate region observed in the mountains. It is characterized by short rains (Vuli) which usually occur in November-December. The third sub-climatic region is marked by long rains (Masika) usually occurs between February and May. The fourth sub-climatic region is characterized by drier condition
14
(Kiangazi) and is observed in the plateau region with considerable seasonal variations in temperature (URT, 2007).
Therefore, the impacts of climate change and vulnerability affect more adversely on dry agro-ecological zones such as arid and semi-arid areas. On the other hand, these impacts affect less in agro-ecological zones with good hydrology such as wetland and flood plains. A good example is in Kyela District where rice grow better in flooded areas than those in non-flooded areas. Also, maize and cassava do better on non-flooded farms with prolonged rain than in flooded zones (Bushesha, et al., 2009). This is because maize is among the sensitive crops to moisture and temperature stresses (lama & Zela, 2005).
2.6.2 Temperature Temperature in Tanzania varies according to the geographical location, relief and altitude. In the coastal regions and the off-shore Islands the average temperatures ranges between 27°C to 29°C, while in the Central, Northern and Western parts temperatures range between 20°C to 30°C and higher between the months of December and March (URT, 2007).
According to Ahrhart, & Twena (2006), climate change is expected to rise the mean annual temperature by 3-5°C by 2075 in Tanzania. On the other hand, the report by the OECD is somewhat more conservative, predicting an average annual increase of 2.2°C by 2100 (Agrawal a, et al., 2003). The above two studies agrees on the raise in temperature. The raise in temperature will be greater during the cooler months (June to August) than in warmer months (December to February). This increase is expected to be
15
more outstanding in central and western regions where temperature may raise up to 4°C and less striking in north-eastern areas, where there may be a warming up to 2.1°C (Ahrhart, & Twena, 2006).
The rise and fall in temperature have some implications to crop production. Areas experiencing high temperature will favour crops which require high temperatures and will affect negatively crops which need low and optimum temperature. A good example is the cashew nut production in Ruvuma Basin which has been affected by the Powdery Mildew disease. This disease excels well in condition with high temperature (Majule et al., 2008). In addition, Labell & Field (2007) found that the impact of increased temperature will affect crop production especially the major crops such as maize, wheat and barley. Therefore,
temperature
has both direct and indirect impacts to crop
production at both local and global level.
2.7 Non-climatic Factors Affecting Crop Production Poor technology monoculture, low productivity/fertility of land, labour and production inputs, underdeveloped
irrigation potential, limited capital and access to financial
services and inadequate agricultural technical support services, just to mention a few, are some of the non-climatic factors which contribute to crop failure (URT, 2007).
In addition, weeds and land conflicts between pastoral societies and farmers also have negative effects on agricultural production in the study area. Poor infrastructures especially roads are more pronounced during rainy season. This hinders the flow of
16
inputs like fertilizers and other farm implements from industries to the farms for use (Ngeze, 1976).
2.8 Farmers Responses to the Impacts of Climate Change and Vulnerability Fanners have been responding to the impacts of climate change and vulnerability in various ways. However, their responses depend on their adaptation capacity, nature of agro-ecological zone and the magnitude of the impacts. Some responded by expanding the area under cultivation, shifting to drought resistant crops like sorghum and cassava while some adjusted to other economic activities such as charcoal marking (paavola, 2006).
2.9 Research Gaps There has been limited studies that linked daily rainfall pattern data with crop production. Some of such studies include Yanda, et al., (2006), Mwandosya, et al., (1998), IPPC (2007); Lyimo (2007), Majule (2008) and Hyera (2007) and Mongi, et al., (2010). However, most of these studies used annual rainfall and temperature information as a basis for interpreting climate change and vulnerability. This study attempts to use daily rainfall and temperature data to analyze extents of dry spells which is a proxy indicator of drought and consequently crop failure.
17
CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction This chapter summarizes the methods and procedures used for this study. It starts by describing the study area; location, biophysical characteristics and the justification of its selection. Also, the chapter shows the sampling design, procedures and sample size. Furthermore, it summarizes the basic methods used in data collection and concludes by presenting methods used for data analysis and presentation.
3.2 Description of the Study Area 3.2.1 Location Mvomero is one of the six districts of Morogoro region in Tanzania. It covers an area of about l4,0042km2. It is located between latitudes 05° 80' and 07° 40'S and between longitudes 37°20' and 38° 05'E and lying between 300 to 400m above the sea level. The study was conducted in two villages namely Mvomero and Makuyu. Sub-villages covered in Mvomero village are Kipogolo and Mthunda while in Makuyu are Mahange and Chanika. Hereunder in Figure 1 is a sketch map showing the location of Mvomero and Makuyu villages in Mvomero District.
18
---.... K
---
f
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