Jul 23, 2012 - Univision News, Nov 2011, 58% support. â Latino Decisions, Jun 2012, 62% support. â Merrill/Morrison,
Implications of the SB1070 Supreme Court decision on the 2012 election July 23, 2012
Election 2012 Implications of the SB1070 decision The general electorate and immigration Latino voters and SB1070 How this will influence the election
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Immigration Immigration and the general electorate Multiple polls have demonstrated majority support for comprehensive immigration reform with path to citizenship
NYT/CBS, May 2010 NBC/WSJ, May 2010 Fox News, Aug 2010 Pew, March 2011 Univision News, Nov 2011 Fox News, Dec 2011 Miami Herald, July 2012
Support CIR 64% 65% 68% 72% 58% 66% 66% in FL
Source: America’s Voice Public Polling on Immigration Reform, http://americasvoiceonline.org/polling/
Immigration Immigration and the general electorate Multiple polls have demonstrated majority support for DREAMers June 15 DHS deferred action → Bloomberg, June 2012, 64% support → Miami Herald, July 2012, 53% support in FL DREAM Act
→ → → → →
National Journal, May 2012, 84% support Fox News, Oct 2011, 63% support Univision News, Nov 2011, 58% support Latino Decisions, Jun 2012, 62% support Merrill/Morrison, Apr 2012, 73% support in Arizona
Source: America’s Voice Public Polling on Immigration Reform, http://americasvoiceonline.org/polling/
SB1070 Decision A complicated decision< “As you may have heard, the United States Supreme Court recently issued a decision on the Arizona immigration law SB1070. The court blocked some parts of the law from going into effect, but they upheld part of the Arizona law which will require state and local police to check the immigration status of a person if there is a reasonable suspicion he or she is an undocumented immigrant, if they have already stopped the person for another reason.
Latino registered voters: Support: Oppose: Don’t know:
29% 66% 5%
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
SB1070 Decision Reaction among Latinos nationally in 2012 How likely is it that Latinos who are legal immigrants or U.S. citizens will get stopped or questioned by police? 100 9 19 80
22
79 74
89
24 75
60
Unlikely Likely
40
20
0
All Latinos
1st
2nd 3rd Immigrant generation
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
SB1070 Decision Reactions to SB1070 among Arizona Latinos 2010 How likely is it that Latinos who are legal immigrants or U.S. citizens will get stopped or questioned by police? 100
80
14
14
85
85
17
19
80
81
60
Unlikely Likely
40
20
0
All Latinos
1st
2nd 3rd Immigrant generation
Post SB1070 survey of Latino registered voters in Arizona, Apr 30 – May 5, 2010, +/- 4.9%
SB1070 Decision Concerns over the impact of SB1070 In the future, immigrants may be less likely to report a crime or volunteer information to the police 100 22
80
28 25
31 76
60
68
65
66
Disagree Agree
40
20
0
All Latinos
1st
2nd 3rd Immigrant generation
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
SB1070 Decision Concerns over the impact of SB1070 Allowing police to check immigration status will increase safety in my community 100
80
60
70
71
27
27
All Latinos
1st
66 73
Disagree Agree
40 33
20
23
0
2nd 3rd Immigrant generation
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 What position did presidential candidates take on SB1070? 70 60
60 51 50
Obama
41 40
Romney
32 30 20 10
7
6
0
Favors
Opposes
Don't know
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 Views of the Parties on Immigration As far as you know, which political party do you think is more responsible for immigration law SB1070 being passed in the first place in Arizona? Republicans: 50%
Democrats: 14%
Both equally: 28%
From what you have heard or seen in the news, do you think {Democrats/Republicans} in the U.S. Congress are: Ignoring or avoiding the issue of comprehensive immigration reform / Working to pass comprehensive immigration reform / Opposing or blocking comprehensive immigration reform
Ignoring or avoiding Working on passing Opposing or blocking Don’t know
Dems in Congress 33 38 13 16
Reps in Congress 30 21 34 14
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 How much do you trust each branch of government to do what is right for Latinos? 100 6 80
22
17 23
33
60
Very much 41
37
Somewhat Little/None
31
40 67 20
35
33
37
Obama
Sup Ct
0
Dems
Reps
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 The Candidates on Immigration Thinking about a long term solution to the immigration issues in America, which candidate do you think will do a better job handling immigration reform Handling Immigration Barack Obama 63% Mitt Romney 19% Neither/Don’t know 17%
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 The Candidates on Immigration Thinking about a long term solution to the immigration issues in America, which candidate do you think will do a better job handling immigration reform Handling 2012 Immigration Vote choice Barack Obama 63% 70% Mitt Romney 19% 22% Neither/Don’t know 17% 8%
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 Mitt Romney’s Immigration Problem? Recently Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said that states like Arizona should have a right to pass their own immigration laws. Romney has said “I believe that each state has the duty and the right to secure our borders and preserve the rule of law. I wish the court had given the states more authority to enforce immigration laws”. He has called immigration laws in Arizona a model for the nation and said undocumented immigrants should self-deport back to their home countries.
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 Mitt Romney’s Immigration Problem? Romney statements on SB1070/Arizona - make you more or less enthusiastic about Romney? 100
80
57 60
53 63
Has no effect
40
29
28 20
Less enthusiastic
More enthusiastic
26 12
0
All Latinos
17 6
Spanish 10:1 less
English 3:1 less
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 Obama’s Enthusiasm Problem? Thinking ahead to the November 2012 presidential election, how enthusiastic are you about voting in the election next year? By Presidential Vote Choice
Very enthusiastic Somewhat Not too enthusiastic
Romney Voters 67% 14% 18%
Obama Voters 58% 27% 15%
-09%
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 Obama’s Enthusiasm Problem? Thinking ahead to the November 2012 presidential election, how enthusiastic are you about voting in the election next year? By knowledge of Obama stance SB1070
Very enthusiastic Somewhat Not too enthusiastic
Know he Opposes 68% 18% 14%
Don’t know his position 45% 28% 27%
+23%
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Election 2012 Obama’s Enthusiasm Problem? Thinking ahead to the November 2012 presidential election, how enthusiastic are you about voting in the election next year? Dems in Congress action on immigration
Very enthusiastic Somewhat Not too enthusiastic
Ignoring/ Avoiding 58% 24% 18%
Working on passing 65% 22% 13%
+7%
Post SB1070 court decision national survey of Latino registered voters, July 7-16, +/- 4.4%
Implications of the SB1070 Supreme Court decision on the 2012 election July 23, 2012