International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. No.
INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL PREDICTORS OF PUBLIC OUTSPOKENNESS: A TEST OF THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE THEORY IN SINGAPORE Lars Willnat, Waipeng Lee, and Benjamin H. Detenber ABSTRACT This study examines the influence of individual-level characteristics on the spiral of silence effect in Singapore. In a representative telephone poll of adults conducted in Singapore in September , respondents were asked to indicate how likely they would be to publicly discuss two controversial issues: interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals. Based on the assumption that outspokenness is largely a function of a person’s psychological predispositions, the proposed model for predicting outspokenness adds a variety of new predictors, such as culturally influenced selfconcepts, fear of isolation, fear of authority, and communication apprehension. Other more traditional predictors of outspokenness, such as a person’s perception of the opinion climate, media exposure, issue salience, and demographics, were also included in the analysis. The findings provide partial support for the spiral of silence hypothesis. That is, the respondents’ perception of the future opinion climate in Singapore interacts with their assessment of how important the issue is in influencing their level of outspokenness. The findings also indicate that outspokenness is associated with respondents’ self-concept of interdependence, their fear of becoming socially isolated, their communication apprehension, and their perceived importance of the issue. Media exposure, however, is not associated with outspokenness.
Noelle-Neumann’s () spiral of silence theory has received renewed attention from media researchers in the past years, and is considered by some ‘one of the most researched and controversial approaches to understanding public opinion’ (Glynn et al. , p. ). Part of the academic fascination with this theory can be explained by the attractiveness of its basic assumption that individual perceptions of public opinion affect political behavior and attitudes (Mutz ). But despite its prominence in the public opinion literature, it
This article was first submitted to IJPOR February , . The final version was received December , . World Association for Public Opinion Research
appears that the theory’s intuitive propositions about the interplay of psychological and social factors in the formation of public opinion have obscured some serious shortcomings in this field of research (Glynn et al. , Kennamer , Price and Allen ). In a recent review, Scheufele and Moy (), for example, point out that studies of the spiral of silence theory are plagued by operational differences and measures that do not apply in different cultural contexts. The objective of this study is to address some of these shortcomings by testing a series of psychological and cultural measures that might explain people’s willingness to express their opinions publicly. In our view, past studies of the spiral of silence theory have failed to control for the potential impact of more general psychological determinants of outspokenness such as people’s preexisting anxiety to express themselves, or their fear of becoming socially isolated. The argument here is that there are a variety of unexplored psychological factors that might explain why people do not talk about their opinions publicly— factors that are independent of people’s perceptions of public opinion. In addition to these psychological predispositions, we investigate the impact of culturally-influenced self-concepts on the likelihood of expressing opinions publicly. Specifically, we analyze whether people’s self-concepts as independent or interdependent individuals are associated with public outspokenness. Since people’s views of public opinion are determined to a large extent by how they see themselves in relation to society, people who perceive themselves as highly individualistic, for example, might be more likely to express their opinions publicly than people who believe themselves to be more dependent on others in society. Finally, we address the lack of conceptual definitions of the fear of isolation in past spiral of silence studies by developing a set of new measures and distinguishing them conceptually from other forms of isolation anxieties. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES Noelle-Neumann’s () spiral of silence theory predicts that people who perceive their opinions to be popular or gaining public support will be more likely to express their views than those who believe that their opinions are not shared by most people or are losing ground. The tendency of the one group to speak up and the other to be silent starts off a spiraling process, which increasingly establishes one opinion as the prevailing one. This study tests the spiral of silence hypothesis on two issues in Singapore: interracial marriages and equal rights for homosexuals. Though considered sensitive topics by local standards, both issues have been written about extensively in the national newspapers and have been publicly discussed by government officials. Moreover, since both issues have a moral dimension—according to NoelleNeumann (), a necessary condition—we consider them ideal for studying the
- spiral of silence process. We expect that willingness to publicly express one’s views about interracial marriages or equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore will be smaller if respondents believe they hold the minority opinion or believe that theirs will be the minority opinion in the future (H: Opinion congruence). I—I The spiral of silence theory has been tested in many countries, including Germany (see Noelle-Neumann ), the United States (see Scheufele and Moy ), Canada (Glynn and Park ), Mexico (Neuwirth ), Japan (Tokinoya ), Hong Kong (Willnat ), and Israel (Shamir ). Although different opinion-expression settings have been used to predict outspokenness, cultural differences have been largely ignored. Scheufele and Moy (, p. ) point out that ‘characteristics common to citizens of a given culture . . . might prove to be important long-term predictors of people’s willingness to speak out’. Thus, much of the cultural variance in outspokenness could rely on how such behavior is perceived in a social context. In western countries such as the United States, for example, people who speak up are perceived as competent, friendly, and intelligent (McCroskey and Richmond ). However, outspokenness can be regarded as a negative characteristic in cultures where personal uniqueness is less desired and verbal challenges are considered impolite. One of the most important ways in which cultures differ is in terms of their relative emphasis on individualism and collectivism (Triandis ). Collectivist cultures tend to place group or social interests over those of the individual, while individualistic cultures tend to emphasize personal interests over those of the collective (Gudykunst , Gudykunst and Matsumoto , Gudykunst et al. , Hasegawa and Gudykunst , Triandis ). These cultural-level concepts have individual-level counterparts in the form of self-concepts of either independence or interdependence (Kim et al. , Markus and Kitayama , Triandis ). People with an independent self-concept tend to see themselves as unique individuals and consider the ability to express oneself and act independently important. Alternatively, some have more of an interdependent self-concept, so they perceive themselves as part of an inter-linked social group and consider the ability to restrain oneself and maintain harmony important (Markus and Kitayama ). While there is some variability of these self-concepts within cultures, people generally see themselves as more interdependent in collectivist cultures and more independent in individualist cultures. Since people’s sense of self and their relationship to larger social units can influence communication patterns (Gudykunst , Gudykunst and Matsumoto , Gudykunst et al. , Hasegawa and Gudykunst , Kim et al. , Oetzel ), these self-concepts may help to explain some of the cultural
variability observed in the spiral of silence. The spiral of silence theory predicts that when people sense that they are in the minority, they tend to keep their views to themselves. This may be especially true for people with an interdependent self-concept, who value fitting-in, and regard speaking out in such circumstances as a threat to group harmony and hence inappropriate. People with an independent self-concept, on the other hand, may not necessarily be silent when they are in the minority, since group harmony is likely to be subordinate to the individual’s desire to express his or her opinions. Thus, we hypothesize that respondents who exhibit high levels of interdependence will be less likely to express their opinions publicly, while respondents with high levels of independence will be more likely to express their opinions publicly (H: Self-concept). F I According to Noelle-Neumann (), the fear of being excluded and ostracized by others motivates people to scan their environment for indications of public opinion so they can better fit with the dominant views. In Noelle-Neumann’s (, p. ) words, ‘the effort spent in observing the environment is apparently a smaller price to pay than the risk of losing the goodwill of one’s fellow human beings—of becoming rejected, despised, alone’. Despite the centrality of this psychological factor in the spiral of silence, most studies have simply assumed its existence and not measured any actual fear of isolation. Three recent studies are the exception. Glynn and Park () measured fear of isolation using a single question that asked how concerned respondents would be if their opinions on a particular issue became widely known in town and people began to avoid them or act differently toward them as a result. Measured in this way, fear of isolation was found to be a significant inverse predictor of outspokenness. Scheufele () also found a negative relationship between his measure of fear of isolation and outspokenness. He operationalized the construct by combining two dimensions: ‘awareness and perception of opinion distributions’ and ‘internal conflict about opinion expression’. Unfortunately, this measure does not quite capture the essence of fear of isolation as articulated by Noelle-Neumann (i.e., people are worried about being isolated and ostracized or rejected by others). In contrast, the fear of isolation measure used by Neuwirth () in a recent public opinion study in Mexico, consisted of two parts: a four-item composite measure of ‘general fear’, and a two-item measure of ‘discussion fear’. The general fear dimension, which assessed worries over social relations, proved to be a significant negative predictor of outspokenness. The discussion fear variable, aimed at ‘maintaining one’s views despite negative consequences’ (Neuwirth , p. ), was not significantly related.
- Overall, while recent studies have recognized the conceptual deficiencies in Noelle-Neumann’s fear of isolation there is still a lack of clear definitions of what this concept actually entails. This study aims to improve on past measures of fear of isolation by treating discussion fear—or what we call communication apprehension—as something separate and distinct from fear of isolation. Based on the original conceptualization of the theory, we expect that respondents with higher levels of fear of isolation will be less likely to voice their opinions publicly than those respondents with lower levels of fear of isolation (H: Fear of isolation). C A The spiral of silence has been criticized for treating fear of isolation as the main motivator of outspokenness (Salmon and Neuwirth , Scheufele and Moy ). Recent spiral of silence studies have included other predictor variables, such as demographics, political dispositions, opinion climate, media exposure, knowledge, and issue salience. However, most of these studies neglected the basic, psychological fact that verbalizing one’s opinion is not an easy task for many people (McCroskey and Beatty ). Thus, it is possible that public outspokenness is partly driven by the fact that some people might be reluctant to express their opinions simply because they fear speaking in public. Clearly, this fear is distinct from Noelle-Neumann’s fear of isolation concept, which focuses on people’s worries over expressing potentially controversial opinions. Communication apprehension is considered a personality trait that everybody experiences to varying degrees in different oral communication situations (Daly , McCroskey , McCroskey and Beatty ). It causes psychological discomfort, and individuals who do not cope well with such discomfort may, for example, avoid a communication setting or withdraw from a conversation (McCroskey and Beatty ). Furthermore, this feeling of apprehension can be induced by both actual and anticipated communication settings (Beatty et al. , McCroskey and Beatty ). The latter is common to many spiral of silence studies, where respondents are asked to estimate how likely they are to discuss their views regarding certain issues in a hypothetical setting. Thus, we predict that respondents with higher levels of communication apprehension will be less likely to voice their opinions publicly than those respondents with lower levels of communication apprehension (H: Communication apprehension). F A While in some countries, citizens are free to exchange views, criticize the government, and express unpopular ideas without worries about official sanctions, many nations exercise much greater control over public discourse and
behavior. In such places, the fear of the authorities and possible punishment can limit public discourse. This influence on public outspokenness is distinct from that of ‘culture’, where norms of public expression are determined by a value system, and not by a body of law. Singapore provides an excellent opportunity to test the spiral of silence hypothesis in a multi-racial, multi-lingual context. The country is considered a more ‘authoritative’ state by political observers both within and outside the country (Chua , Haggard , Low b). The style of governance has been characterized as top-down, paternalistic, and having high levels of regulation in the country’s political, economic and media systems (Chua , Low a, Wang ). While the Singapore government encourages citizens to contribute ideas to their leaders, a recent survey by the Singapore Press Holdings indicated that percent of the respondents would prefer to remain silent when they disagree with the government’s policies, while only percent would publicly voice their opinions (Leong ). These findings indicate that Singapore’s socio-political climate contrasts sharply with that of western countries where the bulk of spiral of silence studies have been conducted. In Singapore, people might actually believe that expressing certain views is undesirable because they assume that dissent can lead to negative consequences like jeopardizing one’s comfortable lifestyle and livelihood, or being thrown in jail (Chua ). In this context, the fear of authority may influence outspokenness independently of cultural values, perceptions of self and perceptions of public opinion. Hence, we expect that respondents with higher levels of fear of authority will be less likely to voice their opinions publicly than those respondents with lower levels of fear of authority (H: Fear of authority).
METHODS Data for this study come from a representative sample of adults ( years or older) living in Singapore.1 Trained undergraduate students working for the Nanyang Technologial University in Singapore conducted the interviews in mid-September . Random-digit dialing procedures were used to contact households and to ensure that unlisted numbers were included in the sample. Interviews in both countries were based on identical questionnaires and lasted minutes on average. Interviews were conducted in English ( percent) and
1 Foreigners were deemed not part of the population of interest and were removed from the total sample of respondents who completed the questionnaire. The final sample consists of respondents who were either Singaporean citizens ( percent) or permanent residents.
- Mandarin, Singapore’s two most commonly spoken languages.2 The response rate was percent, with those who either declined to be interviewed or broke off in mid-interview contacted at least once more. A comparison of the survey respondents’ main demographic characteristics with current census data suggests that the sample is very similar to the population in terms of age (mean=. years), gender (. percent female), and monthly family income (between S$, and S$, or US$, and US$,). However, as is typically the case, the survey respondents tended to be slightly more educated than the national average. In terms of ethnicity, our sample matched the proportion of Chinese in the general population, but slightly over-represented ethnic Indians and under-represented Malays. Respondents were asked a series of questions pertaining to their views on two issues that are currently a part of public discourse in Singapore: interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals. Respondents were then asked several more questions concerning their views on society, public expression, and attitudes toward collectivism and individualism. They were also asked about their media use and demographic information was gathered.
D : O To test people’s willingness to publicly express their opinions on interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals, respondents were asked on a four-point scale (=very unlikely; =very likely) how likely they would be to join a conversation at a wedding banquet if people were discussing each topic and espousing views contrary to their own. In an effort to create a more public context for these discussions, the questions stipulated that the respondent did not know most of the people in attendance. The opposing opinion climate was established by first assessing the respondents’ own views on the issues, and then using contingency questions.3
2 Phone numbers were dialed up to seven times to determine eligibility and complete interviews. Interviewers representing the Center for Survey Research at Nanyang Technologial University asked to speak to the ‘youngest male or older who is at home’. If no eligible male was present, the interviewer asked for ‘the oldest woman or older who is at home’. Prior research (Keeter and Fisher , Srinivasan et al. ) has established that this ‘youngest male’ selection technique produces, if anything, more demographically representative samples than alternative techniques and also increases the proportion of attempted interviews that are completed. The survey was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) software. 3 ‘Spiral of silence scenario: ‘Now imagine you are at a wedding banquet and you don’t know most of the people there. A group of people start discussing interracial marriages. How likely are you to enter the conversation if most people are supporting/opposing interracial marriages/equal rights? Would you be very likely, likely, unlikely, or very unlikely to join in?’
I V Opinion congruence measures According to the spiral of silence theory, it is not merely one’s own opinions or perceptions of the opinions of others that predicts outspokenness, but the relationship between the two. That is, the theory indicates people should be more likely to express their opinion publicly when their own opinion matches what they perceive to be the majority opinion (high congruence). Similarly, people will be more likely to express their own views openly when they believe public opinion is moving in the direction of their own opinion. Conversely, people who perceive the majority opinion to be at odds with their own or moving in the opposite direction of their current views (low congruence) should be less likely to speak out in public. To create these opinion congruence measures we first assessed the respondents’ own position on the issues with separate questions that asked whether they would be more willing to support or oppose interracial marriages or equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore (=support; =no preference; =oppose). Then, to measure perceptions of current public opinion about interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals, we asked the respondents, to estimate the percentage of people in Singapore they thought supported each issue. Respondents were also asked to use a three-point scale to gauge whether the trend in public opinion in Singapore was toward greater or lesser support for interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals (=increasing; =staying about the same; =decreasing).4 A three-point (=high; =medium; =low) current opinion congruence measure was created by determining whether people thought their opinions were in the majority or minority (i.e., comparing the first two measures above). We created a similar future opinion congruence measure by comparing people’s own opinions with their perception of the trend in public opinion. In other words, respondents who felt that public support for interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals was moving in the direction of their own views on the issues were considered to have high congruence (score=), while those who perceived a trend away from their views had low congruence (score=). Respondents who did not perceive a trend in either direction were considered to have indeterminate congruence (score=). 4 Own opinion: ‘Next, we would like to ask you about an issue that has been discussed in the media recently. Generally speaking, would you be more willing to support or oppose interracial marriages/equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore?’ Perception of current opinion climate: ‘Regardless of your personal opinion, what percent of the people in Singapore do you think support interracial marriages/equal rights for homosexuals?’ Majority opinion was defined as respondents perceiving that percent or more of the public support an issue. Perception of future opinion climate: ‘Do you have the impression that public support for interracial marriages/equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore is increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same?’ Those respondents who refused to answer or said that they ‘don’t know’ were coded as perceiving no trend (i.e., ‘staying the same’).
- Fear of isolation In order to create more diverse measures of the fear of isolation, which take into account () people’s general fear of isolating themselves socially, and () their more specific fear of isolating themselves because of what they believe about an issue, the new measure for fear of social isolation was created using a composite of agreement ratings (=strongly agree; =strongly disagree) to the following four items: ‘At times, I worry that others might not like me’; ‘At times, I worry about being alone’; ‘At times, I worry about not having anyone to talk to’; ‘At times, I worry about not being accepted by others’. The composite measure had fairly good reliability (Cronbach’s =.). The fear of opinion isolation was assessed by asking respondents on a five-point scale (=strongly agree; =strongly disagree) how much they agreed with the following three questions: ‘Many times people say things they don’t believe so that they will be accepted by others’; ‘People will often change what they say if others seem to feel differently’; ‘If I think others have views on important issues that are different from mine, I will be less likely to voice my true thoughts publicly’. Because the reliability for the combined scales was rather low (=.), we decided to use the three measures as separate predictors.5 Communication apprehension In relation to the spiral of silence, communication apprehension may account for an unwillingness to speak out publicly irrespective of perceptions of public opinion. In this study, the concept was measured using a subset of the PRCA- developed by McCroskey (). Due to the time limitations of the interview, and given the high degree of internal consistency of its component scales (Rubin et al. ), just three of the group context items were used and combined in an index.6 Respondents indicated their agreement to the following statements on five-point scales (=strongly agree; =strongly disagree): ‘I’m afraid to speak up in conversations’; ‘I dislike participating in group discussions’; and ‘I am tense and nervous while participating in group discussions’. The reliability of the composite measure was low but acceptable (=.). Independent and interdependent self-concept As explained earlier, using measures of independent and interdependent selfconcept may help to explain some of the variance in outspokenness that is 5 It should be noted that we consider it problematic to predict public outspokenness with the conceptually very similar independent measure ‘fear of opinion isolation’—at least if it is measured by asking people whether they would be less outspoken if they perceive others to have opinions different from their own. However, we decided to include such a traditional fear of isolation measure in the analyses in order to control for the effects of this variable while evaluating other forms of fear of isolation in the same model. 6 The other contexts, dyadic interactions, public speaking events, and meetings, were not relevant to the public discussion scenarios created for the study.
known to occur across people, situations and cultures. Seven items using five-point Likert-type scales (=strongly agree; =strongly disagree) were combined to form the independence index (=.). These items came from scales by Gudykunst et al. () and Oetzel and Bolton-Oetzel (), and measured respondents’ agreement with statements like ‘I try not to depend on others’ and ‘I take responsibility for my own actions’. Similarly, the interdependence index was formed by combining six items from established scales like ‘I sacrifice my self-interest for the benefit of my group’ (=.).7 Fear of authority In contrast to fear of isolation, people may be less outspoken because of a general fear of the authorities. In places such as Singapore, which has been criticized for being overly heavy-handed in the suppression of undesirable expression, this fear may indeed be real. A search of the relevant literature yielded no specific measures of fear of authority, so we developed questions to measure this concept (=strongly agree; =strongly disagree): ‘It is easy to get in trouble with the authorities’; ‘People are often observed by the authorities’; ‘The authorities can negatively affect people’s lives’. Because of the low reliability of the index (=.), the three measures were used as separate predictors in all analyses. Issue salience and interest in public affairs This study assumes that issue salience and interest in public affairs can be important predictors of public outspokenness. Salmon and Kline (), for example, argue that people’s willingness to express their opinions against a majority might depend on how involved they are and how salient the issue is to them. Thus, those who consider an issue more important or are more interested in public affairs in general, might be more willing to discuss these issues in public even when faced with an opposing majority. However, while a number of studies have shown that issue salience correlates positively with public outspokenness (Rimmer and Howard , Salmon and Neuwirth , Mutz , Willnat ), other studies found no significant impact of issue 7 Independent self-concept: ‘Next, I am going to read you a series of statements people have made. For each, please tell me whether you strongly agree, agree, are neutral, disagree or strongly disagree’. Statements: ‘Being able to take care of myself is a primary concern for me’; ‘I prefer to be self-reliant rather than depend on others’; ‘I try not to depend on others’; ‘I take responsibility for my own actions;’ ‘It is important for me to be able to act as a free and independent person’; ‘I should decide my future on my own’; ‘What happens to me is my own doing’. Interdependent self-concept: ‘I consult with others before making important decisions’; ‘I consult with coworkers on work-related matters’; ‘I sacrifice my self-interest for the benefit of my group’; ‘It is better to consult others and get their opinions before doing anything’; ‘I try to meet the demands of the groups of which I am a member, even if it means controlling my own desires’; ‘It is important to consult close friends and get their ideas before making a decision’.
- salience (or obtrusiveness) on public opinion expression (Larsorsa , Scheufele ). In order to clarify the relation between issue salience and public outspokenness, respondents in this study were asked how important they thought each of the two tested issues was on a four-point scale (=not at all important; =very important). Similarly, respondents were asked to indicate their interest in public affairs (=not at all interested; =very interested). We expect to find that both issue salience and interest in public affairs will correlate positively with respondents’ willingness to express their opinions publicly. In addition, we investigate the interaction between issue salience and perceived opinion climate. Based on the assumption that people who consider an issue important are more likely to scan the distribution of public opinion on this issue, we argue that these people also should be more susceptible to the spiral of silence process. We therefore expect that respondents who consider the two tested issues more important and who perceive that most people hold opposing views on these issues, are less likely to express their opinions publicly. Media news exposure People’s perceptions of the public opinion climate are thought to be significantly influenced by the media (Noelle-Neumann ). To obtain an accurate measure of the average time spent reading newspapers and watching television news, respondents were first asked how many days a week they used each medium, and then how many minutes they spent with each ‘yesterday’. Minutes were multiplied by days for each medium and then divided by seven to yield a daily average for newspaper and television news exposure. While measures of general news exposure cannot ascertain respondents’ actual news exposure to the two issues tested in this study, we believe the use of these measures is justified based on the assumption that both issues have been covered extensively in the news media. Thus, respondents who use the news media more frequently, not only should be more aware of the issues, but also should know more about the level of public support for these issues. Control measures The study also included a series of standard control variables, such as age, sex, education, race, and income. Noelle-Neumann (, ) argues that one’s willingness to speak up is influenced by one’s perception of the climate of opinion, and varies with one’s age, gender, education, income, and residence. Younger men with higher education and income are generally the most likely to speak out. Age, on the other hand, may be reflective of accessibility to social attitudes and confidence in one’s ability to resist influence attempts.
FINDINGS
Overall, the two issues used to test the spiral of silence hypothesis in this study appear to be controversial and sensitive topics in Singapore. While about percent of the respondents in our survey said that they support interracial marriages in Singapore, percent said that they oppose these marriages, and about one quarter had no preference ( percent). Public support for equal rights for homosexuals was much less pronounced with only about one-quarter of the respondents ( percent) saying that they support equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore. A large majority of the respondents ( percent) indicated that they oppose such rights, while percent had no preference. The findings also indicate that Singaporeans would be ‘unlikely’ or ‘very unlikely’ to express their opinions about interracial marriages ( percent) or equal rights for homosexuals ( percent) in the hypothetical public setting presented in this study. Even among those who support each issue, barely half of the respondents would be ‘likely’ or ‘very likely’ to talk about their viewpoints publicly ( percent among those in support for homosexual rights, and percent among those in support of interracial marriage). When asked to estimate the percentage of people in Singapore who support interracial marriages, responses differed widely. The average estimate of percent indicates that most people underestimate the actual public support for interracial marriages. The majority ( percent) of respondents, however, thought that there was a trend toward more support of interracial marriages in Singapore, one-quarter ( percent) saw it as ‘staying about the same’ and only about percent felt that support was decreasing. As expected, respondents also underestimated the level of public support for equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore ( percent), although this misperception was less pronounced than for the issue of interracial marriages. Interestingly, about one-third of the respondents ( percent) felt that there was a trend toward more support for equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore, while only percent thought that public support was decreasing. However, most respondents ( percent) indicated that support for this issue was ‘staying about the same’. T S S The spiral of silence hypothesis tested in this study states that respondents will be less likely to publicly express their views about interracial marriages or equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore if they believe that they hold the minority opinion or believe that theirs will be the minority opinion in the future. Respondents’ perceptions of how their opinions might match current and future public opinion were measured with the variables current opinion congruence and future opinion congruence.
- T Public outspokenness on interracial marriage and equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore by opinion and opinion congruence Outspokenness on interracial marriage Mean
Standard error
Opinion on interracial marriage Support . Oppose . No preference . Opinion on rights for homosexuals Support – Oppose – No preference – Current opinion congruence High . Medium . Low . Future opinion congruence High . Medium . Low .
Outspokenness on rights for homosexuals Mean
Standard error
n
. . .
– – –
– – –
– – –
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
/ / /
. . .
. . .
. . .
/ / /
Note: Outspokenness for each issue was measured by asking respondents on a four-point scale (=very unlikely; =very likely) how likely they would be to join a public conversation about each issue. n= .
Overall, the findings shown in Table indicate only limited support of the spiral of silence hypothesis. For the interracial marriage issue, neither current opinion congruence nor future opinion congruence had a significant impact on outspokenness. For the homosexual rights issue, a one-way ANOVA with planned comparisons revealed that current opinion congruence did have a significant impact on outspokenness [F (, )=., p < .]. Contrary to what was expected, respondents who perceived their opinions to be at odds with the current public opinion (low opinion congruence) were actually more likely to talk about equal rights for homosexuals in public than respondents who believed that their opinions match those of most people in Singapore [Flin (, )=., p < .]. For perceptions of future opinion congruence, the analysis revealed that those in the middle group were less likely to enter the discussion on equal rights for homosexuals than those who felt either low or high congruence [Fquad (, )=., p < .]. However, there was no significant difference between the outspokenness of the high and low future opinion congruence groups.
P O To assess the individual associations between the independent variables and respondents’ outspokenness on each of the two tested issues, two hierarchical regression models using ordinary least square estimations (OLS) were developed. Both regression models first examine the influence of the respondents’ demographics on their willingness to express their opinions on each issue, then, in assumed causal order, test the effects of media exposure, personal predisposition (issue salience, interest in public affairs, and self-concepts of independence and interdependence), anxiety predispositions (communication apprehension and fear of social/opinion isolation), and finally, current and future opinion congruence. Both regression models also contain an interaction term that tests the combined effects of issue importance and perceptions of majority opinion on outspokenness by multiplying the score for perceived salience of each issue with the score for perceived opinion congruence (current and future opinion congruence).8 As shown in Table , none of the demographic or media exposure variables had a significant impact on respondents’ willingness to speak publicly about interracial marriages. As predicted, respondents who were more interested in public affairs in general and those who considered the issue of interracial marriages important were more likely to express their opinions on this issue in public. Self-concepts of independence and interdependence, on the other hand, were not associated with public outspokenness on this issue. Significant relationships were found between respondents’ anxiety predispositions and their outspokenness. Specifically, respondents who did not like to participate in group discussions (i.e., exhibit a higher degree of communication apprehension) were less likely to express their opinions about interracial marriages publicly. Similarly, those who stated that they would not express their opinions if they thought that others might have opinions different from theirs (i.e., indicated greater fear of opinion isolation) were also less likely to voice their views on interracial marriages publicly. On the other hand, respondents who feared social isolation were more likely to talk about this issue in public. Contrary to the spiral of silence hypothesis, perceptions of current and future opinion congruence did not correlate significantly with outspokenness on interracial marriages. However, as demonstrated by the second interaction term (issue salience×future opinion congruence), the influence of future opinion congruence is contingent upon respondents’ perceived issue importance. In other words, respondents who perceive a trend in public opinion against their
8 Interactions terms were created by centering the two component variables at their mean before calculating the interaction term (see Jaccard et al. ).
- T Predicting outspokenness on interracial marriage in Singapore Zero-order correlation Demographics Age Sex (Female) Education Income Incremental R (in percent) Media variables Newspaper news exposure Television news exposure Incremental R (in percent) Personal predispositions Issue salience Interest in public affairs Self-concept of independence Self-concept of interdependence Incremental R (in percent) Anxiety predispositions Communication apprehension Fear of social isolation Fear of opinion isolation Incremental R (in percent) Opinion congruence Current opinion congruence Future opinion congruence Issue salience×current opinion congruence Issue salience×future opinion congruence Incremental R (in percent) Total R (in percent)
Before-entry beta
Final beta
. –.∗∗ .∗∗ .∗
. –. .∗ .
–. –. . . .∗∗∗
.∗ .∗
. .
. . .∗
.∗∗∗ .∗∗∗ . .
.∗∗∗ .∗∗ . .
.∗∗∗ .∗ . . .∗∗∗
–.∗∗∗ . –.∗∗
–.∗∗∗ . –.∗
–.∗∗∗ .∗ –.∗ .∗∗∗
–. –. .
–. –. –.
–. –. .
–.∗
–.∗
–.∗∗ .∗ .∗∗∗
Note: First block of before-entry column contains upon entry betas. Outspokenness was measured by asking respondents on a four-point scale (=very unlikely; =very likely) how likely they would be to join a public conversation about interracial marriages in Singapore. The following variables were eliminated from the analysis after showing insignificant contributions to the regression models: race, fear of authority, and the nd and rd measure for fear of opinion isolation. n= , ∗ p Ζ .; ∗∗ p Ζ .; ∗∗∗ p Ζ ..
own beliefs on interracial marriage and who consider this issue an important one were less likely to express their views in public. The regression model predicting outspokenness on the homosexual rights issue reveals slightly different patterns of associations. As shown in Table , older women were less likely to talk publicly about this issue. Similar to the
previous model, however, news exposure was not associated with outspokenness, while respondents who considered this issue important were more likely to express their opinions publicly. Interestingly, respondents who agreed with the statement that ‘people will often change what they say if others seem to feel differently’ (i.e., indicated greater fear of opinion isolation), were more likely to express their opinions about the rights of homosexuals. Contrary to what was predicted by the spiral of silence hypothesis, respondents with low levels of opinion congruence were significantly more likely to express their opinions about equal rights for homosexuals. At the same time, outspokenness was negatively associated with low levels of future opinion congruence, a finding that supports the spiral of silence hypothesis. As for the issue of interracial marriage, outspokenness on equal rights for homosexuals was significantly influenced by the interaction between issue salience and future opinion. The findings indicate that respondents who considered equal rights for homosexuals an important issue and perceived a trend in public opinion against their own viewpoints, were less likely to express their opinions publicly. CONCLUSIONS Overall, this study found partial support for the spiral of silence hypothesis. Similar to previous findings, perceptions of the dominant opinion climate alone were weak predictors of public outspokenness. However, when analyzed in combination with other predictors such as issue salience, significant interaction effects emerged. As predicted, most respondents in our study reported that they would be reluctant to talk about interracial marriages or equal rights for homosexuals in a hypothetical public setting. Given the explicit government blessing of interracial marriages in Singapore, the reluctance to talk about interracial marriage was surprising. Respondents’ unwillingness to talk about equal rights for homosexuals might be explained by the fact that although homosexuality is condoned, sex between people of the same gender is still illegal in Singapore. We also found that older women especially were less likely to discuss their views on this issue in public. News exposure, on the other hand, was not related to respondents’ willingness to talk about these two issues in public—possibly a result of the rather general news exposure measures employed. Contrary to expectations, respondents’ perceptions of the dominant opinion climate were not associated with public outspokenness—except in one instance. Respondents who perceived a trend toward less public support for their own opinion, were also more reluctant to talk about the homosexual rights issue in public. For the issue of interracial marriage, however, neither current nor future opinion congruence correlated significantly with respondents’ outspokenness.
- T Predicting outspokenness on equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore
Demographics Age Sex (Female) Education Income Incremental R (in percent) Media variables Newspaper news exposure Television news exposure Incremental R (in percent) Personal predispositions Issue salience Interest in public affairs Self-concept of independence Self-concept of interdependence Incremental R (in percent) Anxiety predispositions Communication apprehension Fear of social isolation Fear of opinion isolation Incremental R (in percent) Opinion congruence Current opinion congruence Future opinion congruence Issue salience×current opinion congruence Issue salience×future opinion congruence Incremental R (in percent) Total R (in percent)
Zero-order correlation
Before-entry beta
Final beta
−.∗ −.∗∗ .∗∗∗ .
−. −.∗ .∗∗ .
−.∗∗∗ −.∗ . . .∗∗∗
−. .
.∗∗∗ . .∗ .∗
−.∗∗∗ −. .∗∗∗
.∗∗∗ . . −.∗
. .
.∗∗∗ . . .
−. . . .∗∗∗ . . . .∗∗∗
−.∗ −. .∗∗
−. −. .∗ .∗
.∗∗∗ −. .
.∗∗∗ −.∗ .
−.
−.∗ .∗∗∗ .∗∗∗
Note: First block of before-entry column contains upon-entry betas. Public outspokenness was measured by asking respondents on a four-point scale (=very unlikely; =very likely) how likely they would be to join a public conversation about equal rights for homosexuals in Singapore. The following variables were eliminated from the analysis after showing insignificant contributions to the regression models: race, fear of authority, and the nd and rd measure for fear of opinion isolation. n= , ∗ p Ζ .; ∗∗ p Ζ .; ∗∗∗ p Ζ ..
The fact that most people in Singapore believe that only a small minority supports equal rights for homosexuals and that this support is at best constant if not decreasing—two conditions that were less pronounced for the issue of interracial marriage—is likely to explain the differences found in the impact of perceived majority opinion on outspokenness.
Interestingly, respondents who thought their opinions to be at odds with the current opinion climate were actually more likely to talk about equal rights for homosexuals in public than respondents who believed that their opinions matched those of most people in Singapore. This finding points toward a fairly outspoken group of people, who are willing to express their opinions on this issue despite their perceptions of being in the minority with their viewpoints. It is reasonable to assume that these respondents represent what Noelle-Neumann (, p. ) called ‘hardcore’ opinion holders—people who are ‘not prepared to conform, to change their opinions, or even to be silent in the face of public opinion’. Similar to findings in previous studies, respondents who considered the issues more important were also more likely to express their viewpoints publicly. In addition, relatively consistent interactions between issue salience and perceptions of opinion trends were found. Respondents who perceived a trend in public opinion against their own beliefs and who considered either of the two issues important were less likely to express their opinions on these issues in public. Thus, perceptions of majority opinion only affected the outspokenness of those who were concerned about an issue and who thought that their viewpoints were losing ground among the public. Singaporeans who were less concerned about the issues apparently felt more at ease expressing their opinions irrespective of what they believed most other people thought. Culturally influenced self-concepts of independence and interdependence were not significantly associated with public outspokenness in this study. Respondents who exhibited high levels of interdependence were just as likely to express their opinions publicly about either issue as respondents with high levels of independence. Thus, the degree to which respondents saw themselves integrated into society— their perception of themselves as more or less individualistic—was not related to their level of outspokenness. This lack of influence of self-concepts on public outspokenness might be related to the fact that none of the opinion congruence measures alone predicted outspokenness. After all, if people do not care about what other people think about an issue, why should their potential desire for harmony between self and society influence their willingness to express their opinions regarding these particular issues? Future studies should test the impact of self-concepts with other issues, especially those that correlate with perceptions of opinion congruence. In addition, further investigations of the influence of self-concepts on outspokenness should be conducted in different cultural settings. Since self-concepts do not only differ between individuals, but also at a more general level between cultures (for example, European and Asian), cross-cultural studies in particular could test the impact of self-perceptions on outspokenness at the individual and societal level. As expected, this study found different relationships between public outspokenness and the two tested types of people’s fear of isolation. Respondents who indicated a greater fear of opinion isolation were less likely to voice their
- views on interracial marriages publicly. In other words, those who thought that others have opinions different from their own were less likely to talk about this issue in public. On the other hand, respondents who feared social isolation were more likely to talk about the issue of equal rights for homosexuals. Here, it was not the perceptions of how others think about an issue that were the driving force, but the fear of becoming a social isolate. It is likely that people who are prone to this type of fear of isolation believe that not talking about controversial or sensitive issues would only deepen their social isolation. While both types of fear of isolation measures were associated with public outspokenness, it seems that the character of these associations is determined by an interaction between the issue at stake and the specific type of fear of isolation under consideration. In addition, this study supports the notion that general anxiety predispositions can be associated with public outspokenness. Specifically, we found that respondents who exhibited higher degrees of communication apprehension were less likely to express their opinions about interracial marriages. While this finding only applies to one of the two issues, the relative strength of this association indicates that communication apprehension can be an important predictor of public outspokenness, and that it should be considered independent of people’s perception of the dominant opinion climate. Respondents’ fear of the authorities in Singapore, however, was not associated with their level of public outspokenness on either issue. While this finding is unexpected, especially since many respondents reported being fairly concerned about the impact of the authorities on their personal lives, it indicates that the spiral of silence is not necessarily driven by fears of personal harm—even in highly controlled political systems such as the one found in Singapore. Overall, these findings suggest that empirical analyses of the spiral of silence effect should take into account the various possible types of people’s anxieties that might be related to Noelle-Neumann’s original conceptualization of the ‘fear of isolation’. While perceptions of majority opinion might affect people’s willingness to discuss their opinions publicly, this willingness might be also influenced by other, more personal, anxieties.
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BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES Lars Willnat (PhD, Indiana University) is an associate professor in the School of Media & Public Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC. Waipeng Lee (PhD, University of Wisconsin-Madison) is an assistant professor in the School of Communication and Information, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Benjamin H. Detenber (PhD, Stanford University) is an associate professor in the School of Communication and Information, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Address correspondence to Professor Lars Willnat, George Washington University, School of Media and Public Affairs, st Street NW, Washington DC , USA, Email:
[email protected]
