Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death

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death, longevity, health, business cycle, recession, life expectancy, lifetimes, ..... The last row gives the fraction of individuals whose lifetime is right censored at a.
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES

IZA DP No. 930

Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death Maarten Lindeboom France Portrait Gerard J. van den Berg November 2003

Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor

Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death Maarten Lindeboom Free University of Amsterdam, Tinbergen Institute and IZA Bonn

France Portrait Free University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute

Gerard J. van den Berg Free University of Amsterdam, Tinbergen Institute, IFAU, CEPR and IZA Bonn

Discussion Paper No. 930 November 2003

IZA P.O. Box 7240 D-53072 Bonn Germany Tel.: +49-228-3894-0 Fax: +49-228-3894-210 Email: [email protected]

This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA’s research area Welfare State and Labor Market. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent, nonprofit limited liability company (Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung) supported by Deutsche Post World Net. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its research networks, research support, and visitors and doctoral programs. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. The current research program deals with (1) mobility and flexibility of labor, (2) internationalization of labor markets, (3) welfare state and labor market, (4) labor markets in transition countries, (5) the future of labor, (6) evaluation of labor market policies and projects and (7) general labor economics. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available on the IZA website (www.iza.org) or directly from the author.

IZA Discussion Paper No. 930 November 2003

ABSTRACT Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death∗ This paper analyzes the effects of macro-economic conditions throughout life on the individual mortality rate. We estimate flexible duration models where the individual’s mortality rate depends on current conditions, conditions earlier in life (notably during childhood), calendar time, age, individual characteristics, including individual socio-economic indicators, and interaction terms. We use individual data records from Dutch registers of birth, marriage, and death certificates, covering an observation window of unprecedented size (1812-1999). These are merged with historical data on macro-economic and health indicators. The results indicate a strong effect of macro-economic conditions during childhood on mortality at all ages. Those who are born in bad times on average have a high mortality rate throughout life, in particular during childhood itself and at ages above 50. Current macro-economic conditions mostly have an effect on youths and on the elderly.

JEL Classification: Keywords:

N3, J1, C5, I1

death, longevity, health, business cycle, recession, life expectancy, lifetimes, epidemics

Corresponding author: Maarten Lindeboom Department of Economics Free University of Amsterdam De Boelelaan 1105 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands Email: [email protected]

∗

This paper was previously distributed under the name “Changes in longevity and economic conditions”. The “Historical Sample of the Netherlands Dataset Utrecht release UT.03” was kindly provided by the International Institute of Social History (IISG) in Amsterdam. We acknowledge comments and suggestions of Paul Gregg, Sören Hojgard and participants of the 2002 European Workshop on Econometrics and Health Economics (Lund), the ESPE 2003 Meeting (New York), and the ESEM 2003 (Stockholm).

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IZA Discussion Papers No.

Author(s)

Title

Area

Date

916

S. C. Wolter S. Mühlemann J. Schweri

Why Some Firms Train Apprentices and Many Others Do Not

5

10/03

917

R. Euwals H. Roodenburg

A Note on the Redistributive Effect of Immigration

1

10/03

918

V. Jakobsen M. Rosholm

Dropping out of School? A Competing Risks Analysis of Young Immigrants’ Progress in the Educational System

1

10/03

919

M. Fertig

The Impact of Economic Integration on Employment – An Assessment in the Context of EU Enlargement

2

10/03

920

Ø. A. Nilsen K. G. Salvanes F. Schiantarelli

Employment Changes, the Structure of Adjustment Costs, and Plant Size

1

11/03

921

P. Egger M. Pfaffermayr A. Weber

Sectoral Adjustment of Employment: The Impact of Outsourcing and Trade at the Micro Level

2

11/03

922

J. Merz D. Burgert

Working Hour Arrangements and Working Hours – A Microeconometric Analysis Based on German Time Use Diary Data

5

11/03

923

U. Dulleck P. Frijters R. Winter-Ebmer

Reducing Start-Up Costs for New Firms: The Double Dividend on the Labour Market

5

11/03

924

A. P. Damm M. Rosholm

Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants, Part I: Theory

1

11/03

925

A. P. Damm M. Rosholm

Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants, Part II: Empirical Evidence

1

11/03

926

S. E. Black P. J. Devereux K. G. Salvanes

Why the Apple Doesn’t Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital

5

11/03

927

L. Goette D. Huffman E. Fehr

Loss Aversion and Labor Supply

5

11/03

928

H. Selod Y. Zenou

Does City Structure Affect the Labor-Market Outcomes of Black Workers?

3

11/03

929

Z. Eckstein G. J. van den Berg

Empirical Labor Search: A Survey

1

11/03

930

M. Lindeboom F. Portrait G. J. van den Berg

Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death

3

11/03

An updated list of IZA Discussion Papers is available on the center‘s homepage www.iza.org.