Integrative risk assessment and decision support tool for ... - Merikotka

MIMIC - Integrative risk assessment and decision support tool for minimizing risks of marine oil transport

Project Open Day 3.10.2012, Tallinn Annukka Lehikoinen - University of Helsinki Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto

Research problem • The Gulf of Finland (GoF), Eastern Baltic Sea: • Largest brackish water pool in the world • Low biodiversity, unique ecosystem ‒ Particularly Sensitive Sea-Area status (IMO)

• Maritime traffic, especially oil transport, is growing rapidly • A major oil accident could have severe environmental consequences

• Increasing need to assess alternative preventive strategies in oil spill risk management is evident • in addition and compared to post-accidental oil-recovery

www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto

Research aims • To integrate the knowledge from earlier projects and new information on the less studied aspects of maritime accidents • To study and compare the effect of different management actions to avoid accidents, giving insight to the cost-effectiveness of these measures • To create an integrative risk and decision analysis model that will gather information and forecasts concerning the maritime traffic, oil transport, oil combating and accidents, not forgetting their likely environmental consequences (WP5) www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto

Environmental risk assessment context: DPSIR-approach Responses According to the instruments, should we react?

Drivers

Impacts

Needs behind the pressures

Instruments to assess the harm

How much certain level of need creates pressure?

What to do to manage the system (and what part of it)?

How harmful the effects are seen? (How we valuate them?)

Pressures

States

causing harm in the system

Harm caused by the pressure

How / to what degree the system is affected by the pressures?


Decision support models • Provide a quantitative means to study alternative decisions in the presence of multiple aims • Help the decision-makers to make consistent and justifiable choices in complicated and multifaceted evaluation problems • Modeling aims at finding out optimal decisions; when and where investments on the future state of our environment are most effective? • The evaluation of the nature and extent of uncertainty should be included to make the process transparent and to give the decision-makers a realistic picture of the uncertainty and the range of the possible outcomes of the management actions www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto

Method: Bayesian networks as integrative analysis tool • Probabilistic, causal networks which can be used for the analysis of complex systems, taking into account the uncertainty holistically on each level, E.g.: • Forecast-related uncertainty • Model uncertainty • Environmental randomnes • Data-related uncertainty

• Help in processing the entities that are too complex for human brains alone • Enable integration of different types and forms of knowledge to chains of inference • Statistics and forecasts • Models and simulations • Both qualitative and quantitative correlations and causalities

WP5: Integrative model elements Future Scenarios 2020 & 2030 UTU

Security & safety elements AALTO/KYAMK/ SYKE

Management (preventive) UTU/AALTO (CAFE)

Oil transport

Maritime traffic

Ship accidents

UTU

UTU

AALTO

Oil drifting

Oil accidents

Organism group model

SYKE/SMHI/ UH?

AALTO/TUT

Oil recovery (post-accidental management)

UH

OPTIMIZING

Losses:

UH

•Biodiversity •€ (willingnes to pay) •Other?

UH OPTIMIZING New elements

Updated / partly existing

Future oil transport scenarios

See: Brunila & Kuronen (2012) Oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

Grounding probability Learned by GeNIe (GTT) from the actual accident data

Arsham Mazaheri, Aalto University

Developed by Experts within expert workshop

Model for biological impacts of oil spill for higher amount of species Polluted coastal line

Oil type

Macrophytes

Terrestrial plants

Season

Macrofauna

Fish

MIMIC SAFGOF update from OILRISK? SAFGOF

OILECO, Tiina Lecklin’s model

Valuation of the output

Seals

Example: sub-model for the fish

See: Lecklin et al (2011) A Bayesian network for analyzing biological acute and long-term impacts of an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland. Marine Pollution Bulletin 62: 2822-2835.

Alternative ways to valuate the outputs? • • • • •

Value of biodiversity Willingnes to pay Value of the ecosystem services … to be analysed and compared! Before putting too much effort for several approaches, the relevance to the decision ranking order need to be evaluated • i.e. Does the valuation approach actually affect the ranking order of the decisions analysed? Not nesessarily – topical question is the relative change that management would likely produce in the amount of harm caused – independent of the units used! www.helsinki.fi/yliopisto

Thank you for your attention!

3.10.2012

Kotka Maritime Research Centre – Heikinkatu 7, 48100 Kotka

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http://www.merikotka.fi/mimic/ (MIMIC web-pages) www.helsinki.fi/science/fem/ (Research group of Fisheries and Environmental Management) Contact: [email protected]
