INTEREST DEVELOPMENT AND PREDICTION ...

Running head: INTEREST DEVELOPMENT AND PREDICTION

Vocational interests: Revisiting assumptions about their development and what they predict

Kevin A. Hoff, Jessamyn G. Perlus, and James Rounds University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA

Book chapter in preparation for: International Handbook of Career Guidance (2nd Edition) James A. Athanasou and Harsha N. Perera (Eds.)

Address Correspondence to: Kevin A. Hoff, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 603 E Daniel St, Champaign, IL 61820. [email protected]

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Vocational interests: Revisiting assumptions about their development and what they predict Vocational interest assessments are a unique tool in that they are used to predict outcomes far into the future—in both research and practical settings. The use of interest assessments for predictive purposes is supported by decades of research showing that vocational interests are highly stable over time and predict several important career and academic outcomes (Low, Yoon, Roberts, & Rounds, 2005; Nye, Su, Rounds, & Drasgow, 2012, 2017; Rounds & Su, 2014; Van Iddekinge, Putka, & Campbell, 2011). Yet new research findings have led to a better understanding of why interests are important and how they develop and change with age (e.g., Hoff, Briley, Wee, & Rounds, in press). In this chapter, we review recent research on the development and predictive validity of vocational interests with a focus on career guidance implications. This chapter is organised into two parts. The first part reviews research on the development of vocational interests, focusing on continuity and change across the life course. Recent meta-analytic findings are emphasised that show interests change in meaningful ways from adolescence to adulthood, with implications for the interpretation of interest assessments with clients of diverse ages. The malleability of gender differences across the life span is also examined. The second part reviews research on the predictive validity of vocational interests for a variety of career and academic outcomes. A major conclusion is that interests are surprisingly strong predictors of performance-related outcomes (e.g., job performance and career success), but are relatively weak predictors of satisfaction-based outcomes (e.g., job satisfaction). These findings challenge several influential theories of work behaviour and highlight the need to rethink the importance of interests in shaping human behaviour. The chapter concludes by

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reviewing theoretical and practical implications aimed at better understanding the interest development process and the outcomes associated with interest fit. Vocational Interest Development Vocational interests are defined as “trait-like preferences to engage in activities, contexts in which activities occur, or outcomes associated with preferred activities that motivate goaloriented behaviors” (Rounds & Su, 2014, p. 98). An important feature of this definition is the word, trait-like. Similar to personality traits, vocational interests endure across the life span. Meta-analytic research has shown that interests possess high levels of stability from adolescence to adulthood, showing greater rank-order stability than personality traits (Low et al., 2005; Roberts & DelVecchio, 2000). However, this does not imply that interests are incapable of changing. Stability indices are independent from measures of change; high stability does not preclude the possibility of change. Indeed, our recent meta-analysis showed that vocational interests change in meaningful ways during adolescence and young adulthood (Hoff et al., in press). In this section, we review these novel findings and discuss how they contribute to existing research and theory on continuity and change in vocational interests. Practical implications for the interpretation of interest assessments by career guidance counsellors are discussed throughout. The Stability of Vocational Interests Stability can be defined in two ways: rank-order stability and profile stability. Rank-order stability reflects continuity in the relative ordering of individuals within a group based on individual differences in interest scores. Rank-order stability is therefore a measure of interindividual continuity. On the other hand, profile stability reflects intra-individual continuity, the extent to which an individual’s interest profile remains the same over time. Both types of

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stability are important for the practical use of vocational interests. For interest assessments to have predictive power, they must retain the ability to differentiate between individuals based on the relative ordering of scores within a group (i.e., rank-order stability). In addition, interest assessments must reliably differentiate interest scores within individuals over time (i.e., profile stability). Low et al. (2005) quantitatively reviewed research on the stability of vocational interests. In their meta-analysis of 66 longitudinal studies, the authors found that vocational interests are remarkably stable in terms of both rank-order and profile stability. Vocational interests showed higher rank-order stability than personality traits from ages 12 to 30 (c.f., Roberts & DelVecchio, 2000). Another important finding was that the rank-order stability of interests generally increased with age from early adolescence (age 12) until young adulthood (age 22-25), when stability levels plateaued (see Figure 1). In other words, the rank-ordering of individuals’ interests within a group becomes increasingly stable throughout adolescence and the college years, but stability levels do not continue increasing during young and middle adulthood. This suggests that interests shift around more during adolescence than during young adulthood. Nonetheless, stability indexes simply indicate the extent to which changes are occurring at different age periods. The Low et al. results do not offer insight into how interests change with age, in terms of the direction and magnitude of changes in different interest categories. In addition, the findings do not reveal whether there are gender differences in developmental trends (i.e., whether women and men’s vocational interests change differently as they age). Insert Figure 1 about here Developmental Changes in Interests

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There are two primary ways to assess developmental changes in vocational interests: mean-level change and individual differences in change. Mean-level changes reflect normative changes at the population-level, or how interests change on average during different age periods. Individual differences are deviations from a population’s mean-level changes over time; do some individuals increase in their interest intensity, while others decrease? It is important to consider both types of change to understand the diverse pathways that people experience over the course of development. However, most existing longitudinal research has focused on mean-level changes in vocational interests. In the following sections, we review findings from our recent meta-analysis of longitudinal studies tracking mean-level changes in vocational interests (Hoff et al., in press). We also discuss research on related constructs (e.g., interest in school subjects, career aspirations, personality traits) to present an integrative picture of interest development during adolescence (~ages 11-18) and young adulthood (~ages 18-30). Adolescence. The period of adolescence can be separated into early (ages 11-14) and late adolescence (ages 14-18). Early adolescence is marked by relatively rapid decreases in vocational interests. In our meta-analysis of mean-level changes in vocational interests, Hoff et al. (in press) found declining scores in almost every RIASEC1 interest category from ages 11 to 14. This can be seen in Figure 2, which shows cumulative changes in each interest category from early adolescence (~age 11) to middle adulthood (~age 42). The only exception to this pattern was enterprising interests, which tended to increase during early adolescence. Nonetheless, the

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Holland’s (1959, 1997) RIASEC vocational interest typology is the most widely used theoretical framework for interest measurement. Holland’s typology describes people according to their resemblance to six vocational personalities and environments: Realistic (R), Investigative (I), Artistic (A), Social (S), Enterprising (E), and Conventional (C). Realistic interests involve working with hands, tools, and materials. Investigative interests involve scientific and research activities. Artistic interests involve self-expression and creativity typically associated with the performing, written, and visual arts. Social interests are activities that involve helping and nurturing. Enterprising interests involve selling, managing, and social influence typically in a business context. Conventional interests involve the ordered and systematic manipulation of data with clear standards.

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overall finding was that students who responded to interest assessments at age 13-14 tended to like fewer activities than when they were 11-12 years old. In other words, the normative trend of early adolescence appears to be decreasing vocational interest intensity. Insert Figure 2 about here Studies on the development of other motivational constructs have found similar decreases during early adolescence. For example, studies have reported mean-level declines in school subject interest intensity, self-esteem, and competency beliefs during this age period (Bong, Lee, & Woo, 2015; Dotterer, McHale, & Crouter, 2009; Frenzel, Pekrun, Dicke, & Goetz, 2012; Renninger & Hidi, 2016; Wigfield, Eccles, Mac Iver, Reuman, & Midgley, 1991). In addition, research on personality development suggests that students become less agreeable, conscientious, and emotionally stable during early adolescence (Denissen, van Aken, Penke, & Wood, 2013; Soto, John, Gosling, & Potter, 2011; Van den Akker, Dekovic, Asscher, & Prinzie, 2014). Future research is needed to better understand why these decreases occur during the transition from childhood to adolescence. Several factors likely contribute to the declines in mean-level vocational interest scores (Hoff et al., in press). For example, early adolescence is marked by an increased emphasis on school grades and educational content that becomes more complex and hierarchical (Eccles et al., 1993; Renninger & Hidi, 2016). Students also begin to make connections between school subjects and careers during this time. If students experience boredom or difficulties in school subjects, they may report less interest in associated career areas. In addition, peer influences can be particularly influential during early adolescence. Gender stereotypes may lead students to report less interest in occupations and work activities that conflict with traditional gender roles (Gottfredson, 1981, 2005).

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Yet the declining interest scores that define early adolescence are only temporary. Our meta-analysis also revealed that during late adolescence, mean-level interest scores increase in almost every RIASEC category (see Figure 2; Hoff et al., in press). This finding leads to a major practical implication for the interpretation of interest assessments during adolescence. Rather than viewing the decreases of early adolescence as negative or harmful, these changes can be viewed as temporary reorganisation and preparation for growth. Students likely increase their adaptive capacities by overcoming the educational and social challenges of early adolescence. Research on adolescent personality development also supports this normative trend. Studies have shown that after decreasing during early adolescence, conscientiousness and openness increase rapidly in late adolescence (Denissen et al., 2013; Soto et al., 2011). Counsellors, teachers, and parents can benefit by recognising this deficits-breeds growth perspective (Baltes, Staudinger, & Lindenberger, 1999) when working with adolescents and their parents to develop educational and career plans. Although interest assessments are given to students of diverse ages, results generally do not account for age differences in interest scores. Information about normative changes during adolescence can be used to provide context for assessment results and anticipate future changes in interest levels. For example, when interpreting interest assessments with 13- or 14-year-old students, practitioners should expect that interest levels will increase in most areas over the next few years. Using different assessment methods, such as interest card sorts or emoji-based scale anchors (Phan, Amrhein, Rounds, & Lewis, in press), may also be helpful when working with adolescents. Alternatively, practitioners could choose not to use vocational interest assessments until the end of late adolescence. Asking students what careers they are interested in is not likely to be productive until they have sufficient knowledge about what different careers actually entail.

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Early adolescents may simply report their interests based on occupational stereotypes (Gottfredson, 1981, 2005). In place of interest assessments, more effort could be made to educate students about the world of work. Younger students could benefit by conducting informational interviews or job shadows based on their developing career aspirations. Practitioners are also encouraged to use O*NET, the Occupational Information Network website hosted by the U.S. Department of Labor (O*NET; Peterson, Mumford, Borman, Jeanneret, & Fleishman, 1999). O*NET offers a free online interest inventory (i.e., the Interest Profiler; Rounds, Su, Lewis, & Rivkin, 2010), and also classifies thousands of jobs in terms of interests (RIASEC coded), values, job tasks, education required, and several other variables. Thus, even without using the Interest Profiler, O*NET contains a host of useful information that can be used to educate young students about the world of work. Young adulthood. As mentioned, previous research has indicated that vocational interests stabilise during young adulthood (Low et al., 2005), but this does not mean that they become fixed. Our meta-analysis on mean-level change revealed a consistent pattern of change across composite People and Things2 interest dimensions (Hoff et al., in press). In three separate age periods spanning young adulthood (ages 18-22, 22-30, and 18-42), interests involving People tended to increase (social, enterprising, and artistic), whereas interests involving Things either remained constant (realistic and social) or decreased (conventional). This suggests that during young adulthood, many people gradually become more interested in activities and work environments that involve helping, leading, and influencing people. Career guidance counsellors

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Another classification system that relies on Holland’s typology is Prediger’s (1982) two-dimensional model of People-Things and Data-Ideas. These dimensions were initially proposed to be bipolar. However, recent studies by Tay, Su, & Rounds (2011) and Graziano, Habashi, and Woodcock (2011) have shown that these dimensions are better represented from a bivariate perspective. In other words, an interest in People does not necessarily imply a lack of interest in Things; and similarly, one can be interested in activities that involve both Data and Ideas simultaneously (Woodcock et al., 2013).

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and others who work with secondary and post-secondary students can benefit by anticipating these changes. Understanding why vocational interests change during young adulthood is an important area for future research. Although few studies have addressed this question with vocational interests, there has been considerably more research on mechanisms underlying personality trait change. Personality traits and vocational interests are interrelated over the course of development, so age-related changes in interests can be viewed from an integrative perspective (Ackerman, 1996; Ackerman & Heggestad, 1997; Armstrong & Vogel, 2009). As peopleoriented vocational interests increase during young adulthood, mean-levels of agreeableness, conscientiousness, and emotional stability also tend to increase (Roberts, Walton, & Viechtbauer, 2006). These personality increases have been labeled the maturity principle because they occur in trait domains associated with social maturity (Roberts & Mroczek, 2008). Social maturity is valued in a variety of interpersonal settings, which incentivises the development of such traits (Hogan & Roberts, 2004; Nye & Roberts, 2013). Longitudinal studies on personality development have identified work transitions as an important influence on change (e.g., Clausen & Gilens, 1990; Lüdtke, Roberts, Trautwein, & Nagy, 2011; Nye & Roberts, 2013; Roberts, Caspi, & Moffitt, 2003). For example, a large-scale study by Specht, Egloff, and Schmukle (2011) found that young adults became more conscientious after beginning their first job, and older adults became less conscientious after retiring. Conscientiousness is positively associated with several important work outcomes (e.g., job satisfaction, income, and occupational status; Judge, Higgins, Thoresen, & Barrick 1999), so it is not surprising that conscientious levels are related to work transitions. Reward structures at work may also help explain why People-oriented vocational interests increase during young

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adulthood. Longitudinal studies tracking changes in interests across work transitions are needed to better understand the dynamic relations between interests and work experiences. More broadly, it is important for career guidance practitioners to recognise that vocational interests can change during adulthood as individuals gain work experience. Gender differences across the life span. There are large gender differences in vocational interests, particularly in realistic and social interests. Men have substantially stronger realistic interests than women (d = .84), while women have much stronger social interests than men (d = -.64; Su, Rounds, & Armstrong, 2009). These two differences are among the largest gender differences of all psychological variables and have been well-documented in the literature (Lippa, 1998, 2010; Su et al., 2009; Su & Rounds, 2015). However, fewer studies have examined how the size of these gender differences varies with age. This question has important implications for educational initiatives aimed at reducing the gender disparity in certain STEM career fields (Su & Rounds, 2015). Interventions targeting vocational interests can benefit from knowing when gender differences first emerge and how they change with age (e.g., Karabenick & Urdan, 2014). The Hoff et al. (in press) meta-analysis addressed this research question by comparing mean-level changes in realistic and social interests between samples of men and women. Our results led to two important findings about the magnitude of gender differences across the life course. First, as shown in Figure 3, gender differences in realistic and social interests widen substantially during early adolescence, as both boys and girls lose interest in work activities typically associated with the opposite gender. However, during late adolescence and young adulthood, gender differences in realistic and social interests gradually decrease in magnitude. Together, these two findings suggest that gender differences in vocational interests reach a

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lifetime peak during early adolescence. Yet after this age period, women gradually become more interested in realistic activities, while men gradually become more interested in social activities. Large-scale cross-sectional comparisons also suggest a gradual reduction in the size of gender differences with age (Morris, 2016; Su et al., 2009). Insert Figure 3 about here Future research is needed to understand the causes and consequences of declining gender differences in vocational interests. Existing theories of interest development generally do not address age-related changes in interests (Hidi & Renninger, 2006; Holland, 1997; Renninger & Hidi, 2016). However, one theory on the development of career aspirations helps explain these novel findings (Gottfredson, 1981, 2005). Gottfredson’s theory of circumscription and compromise proposes four stages in the development of occupational aspirations. In the first two stages (spanning ages 2-8), children begin to learn about sex roles and their application to careers. In the third stage spanning early adolescence (ages 9-13), Gottfredson emphasises the role of social expectations and values in shaping aspirations. During this time, students become highly concerned with peer approval, potentially causing gender differences in vocational interests to increase. Yet in the fourth stage (age 14+), Gottfredson argues that aspirations depend less on peer approval and more on one’s unique, internal self (1981). This helps explain why gender differences decline during young adulthood. Nonetheless, it is important to recognise that gender differences in vocational interests do not disappear in middle adulthood. The differences in realistic and social interests are large enough that they persist, to at least some extent, throughout the entirety of the life span (Su et al., 2009). The Predictive Validity of Vocational Interests for Work Outcomes

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Vocational interest assessments are among the most popular career guidance tools. For example, roughly four million high school students take the ACT Interest Inventory each year in the United States (American College Testing Program, 2009), which is just one of several popular interest measures (e.g., Interest Profiler - Rounds, et al., 2010; Self-Directed Search Reardon & Lenz, 2015; Strong Interest Inventory - Donnay, Morris, Schaubhut, & Thompson, 2005). Assessment results are used in a variety of decision-making processes, such as what to study in college, what job to pursue, and where to work. The reliance on interest assessments for these types of decisions is predicated on the assumption that interest congruence—the fit between a person’s interests and their environment—predicts important outcomes in educational and work environments. Although this assumption is supported by considerable research in certain areas, interest fit does not predict all outcomes equally. Next, we review research and theory on the predictive validity of vocational interests for a variety of important work outcomes. The central conclusion is that interests are better predictors of performance than satisfaction. Career guidance practitioners can benefit by reconceptualising the importance of interests in this way. Theoretical Assumptions about the Importance of Interest Congruence Holland’s (1959; 1997) Theory of Vocational Personalities and Work Environments is the most widely applied theory of vocational interests. A core proposition of Holland’s theory is that people have a basic motivation to seek out environments that allow them to express their interests, skills, and abilities. Holland argued that a variety of important work outcomes (e.g., job satisfaction, tenure, and success) depend on the degree to which an individual’s interests matches the characteristics of their environment (i.e., interest fit/congruence). The environment can be construed in a number of ways resulting in different types of Person-Environment (P-E) fit, such

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as fit with one’s supervisor, organisation, or occupation. Holland’s theory is most concerned with fit at the occupational-level, as he argued that occupations are composed of people with similar personalities and interests. According to Holland’s theory, individuals who more closely resemble the distinctive characteristics of their occupation should be more satisfied with their jobs, stay longer, and perform better. Other major theories of P-E fit make similar predictions about the outcomes associated with better interest fit. Schneider’s (1987) Attraction-Selection-Attrition model and Dawis and Lofquist’s (1984) Theory of Work Adjustment are two notable examples. Both theories have had a major influence on research in vocational and organisational psychology. The AttractionSelection-Attrition (ASA) model is similar to Holland’s theory in that it focuses on the role of vocational interests, goals, and values in guiding people towards organisations composed of likeminded individuals. Self-selection processes lead to homogenous workplaces, so employees with similar interests to their coworkers should experience higher levels of job satisfaction and performance. In contrast, individuals with interests that do not fit their environment are more likely to leave their job (Schneider, 1987). The Theory of Work Adjustment (TWA) makes similar predictions, but focuses more on the demands that individuals and organisations exert on each other (and whether each side can meet the demands). According to TWA, the primary outcomes of interest fit are employee satisfaction and job tenure (Dawis & Lofquist, 1984). Importantly, none of the three P-E fit theories discussed above propose hard distinctions between the positive outcomes associated with interest fit. Performance, satisfaction, and job tenure are often lumped together without specifying whether vocational interest fit is more closely related to any of these outcomes compared to the others. This is problematic because

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empirical research has revealed important distinctions in the strength of correlations between vocational interests and various work outcomes. Job Satisfaction Research suggests that vocational interests are a relatively weak predictor of job satisfaction. Three published meta-analyses have examined the relationship between interest congruence and job satisfaction (Assouline & Meir, 1987; Tranberg, Slane & Ekeberg, 1993; Tsabari, Tziner & Meir, 2005). In all three studies, positive correlations were found between congruence and satisfaction, but the confidence intervals included zero (Assouline & Meir, 1987: r = .21, 95% CI [-.08, .50]; Tranberg et al., 1993: r = .20, 95% CI [-.06, .45] Tsabari et al., 2005: r = .14, 95% CI [-.03, .30]. Thus, previous research has failed to show a statistically significant relationship between interest congruence and job satisfaction. There are several different ways to interpret these findings (e.g., Tinsley, 2000). On one extreme, it can be argued that previous studies are flawed or limited in some way, so their results should be ignored. Or on the other extreme, the non-significant results can be interpreted to suggest that interest congruence is not important for job satisfaction; employees need not be interested in order to be satisfied. A middle ground also exists between these two perspectives: being interested may be more important for some people than others. The strength of the correlation may also vary across different types of jobs. These possibilities challenge some of the most basic assumptions of vocational psychology and career guidance. All three previous meta-analysis reported wide confidence intervals around their estimated interest-satisfaction correlations. This suggests that there are likely important moderators that affect the strength of the relationship between interest congruence and job satisfaction. One possible moderator is the extent to which different people value being

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interested in their work. Locke’s (1969; 1973) Value-Percept model of job satisfaction argues that value fit is more important than interest fit in determining job satisfaction. Some people care more about their salary, job autonomy, or location compared to whether they are interested in their job. From this perspective, interest congruence can be viewed as one type of value, among many others, that helps determine whether people are satisfied with their job. The extent to which employees value being interested in their work may vary within occupations, depending on an employee’s age, gender, socio-economic background, or other unidentified moderators. There may also be important moderators that vary between occupations. Characteristics such as job complexity, salary, and occupational prestige may influence the strength of the interest-satisfaction relationship. For example, research has shown that the predictive validity of cognitive abilities for performance is stronger for more complex jobs (Schmidt & Hunter, 1998), and that personality traits predict job performance differently depending on the contexts in which jobs are performed (Judge & Zapata, 2015). Between-occupation moderators have yet to be identified in the study of interests and job satisfaction. However, recent research suggests that the homogeneity of employees’ interests within different occupations may be a particularly important consideration. Homogeneity—the extent to which individuals in the same occupation share the same interests—is a key assumption of person-environment fit theories (Holland, 1997; Schneider, 1987). Holland emphasised the use of congruence indices that capture fit between the interest profiles of individuals and occupations to predict work outcomes such as satisfaction (Holland, 1997). Occupation-level congruence indices assume that there are common interest profiles of employees within specific occupations, which differ from the profiles of other occupations. Previous research has supported the homogeneity assumption in the context of employee

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personality (King, Ott-Holland, Ryan, Huang, Wadlington, & Elizondo, 2016; Schneider, Smith, Taylor, & Fleenor, 2007). However, some researchers have questioned whether interest profiles within occupations are sufficiently homogeneous (e.g., Zytowski & Hay, 1984). For example, Dolliver and Nelson (1975) found substantial interest variation within occupations and characterise homogeneity as an oversimplification. Despite these critiques, the homogeneity assumption has persisted. Perlus, Hoff, Rounds, and Nye (2016) examined the homogeneity of interests in occupations using four large datasets. The results provided mixed evidence demonstrating varying levels of homogeneity within occupations. In some cases, a large proportion of employees in the same occupation reported the same dominant interest (measured as a first letter interest code). For example, 82% of male fine artists had dominant artistic interests, and 82% of female auto mechanics had dominant realistic interests. However, in other circumstances there were practically even distributions with each of the six RIASEC codes represented relatively equally among the sample (e.g., female radiological technologists and female chiropractors did not have dominant interest codes). These findings contradict the foundational assumption of interest homogeneity. A continuum of homogeneity exists in the interest profiles of different occupations—which also varies by gender—thus limiting the extent to which congruence indices can capture interest fit at the occupational level. Given this finding, it is important to address the continuum of occupational homogeneity in career guidance research and practice. For example, the Self-Directed Search manual recommends exploring all iterations of interest high codes for occupations (e.g., exploring jobs that are Realistic-Investigative and Investigative-Realistic) to widen the scope of potentially good-fitting jobs (Reardon & Lenz, 2015). Alternative ways of defining congruence or

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describing occupational environments could also aid clients with their career choices (e.g., using multiple interest profiles for heterogeneous occupations). Measuring interests at a greater level of specificity (e.g., basic interest scales) may achieve a better sense of how an individual would ‘fit’ with an occupation. Individuals are attracted to occupations that interest them, but the decision to select and remain in a particular occupation is often more complicated. Future research should consider if the degree of occupational homogeneity is a moderator of the interest-satisfaction relationship, and explore the role of additional factors influencing homogeneity such as abilities, job tenure, job complexity, or labor market conditions. It is vital for career guidance practitioners to be aware of the relatively weak relationship between interest fit and job satisfaction. If their goal is to aid clients in finding satisfying work, values assessments may be more appropriate (e.g., O*NET’s Work Importance Profiler; McCloy et al., 1999). Meta-analytic research suggests that there is a stronger relationship between value fit and job satisfaction (Kristof-Brown, Zimmerman, & Johnson, 2005; Verquer, Beehr, & Wagner, 2003), compared to interest fit (Assouline & Meir, 1987; Tranberg et al., 1993; Tsabari et al., 2005). This is consistent with the perspective of viewing interest fit as a type of value that varies in importance for different individuals. It is also notable that Song, Wee, Earl and Rounds (2016) found that interest fit predicts certain facets of job satisfaction better than others. Specifically, vocational interests appear to be stronger predictors of intrinsic satisfaction (e.g., satisfaction with the work itself) than extrinsic satisfaction (e.g., satisfaction with pay, promotions, or supervisor). Values assessments are generally better suited to predict these extrinsic facets of job satisfaction. Job Performance and Career Success Unlike job satisfaction, a vast body of research supports a strong relationship between

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vocational interest fit and job performance. Three recent meta-analyses have summarised studies on this relationship. Van Iddekinge et al. (2011) examined the relationship between interest congruence and job performance among 8 studies and found a corrected correlation of r = 0.15. The Nye et al. (2012) meta-analysis also examined this relationship and found a corrected correlation r = 0.36. The primary studies included in these two meta-analyses partially overlapped and both meta-analyses agreed that interest congruence predicted performance. However, the two meta-analyses disagreed on the magnitude of validity correlations for congruence indices compared to interest scale scores. A recent meta-analysis by Nye et al. (2017) sought to resolve differences in previous findings. Their analysis of 92 studies with 1,858 total correlations revealed that interest congruence (r = 0.32) was a stronger predictor of performance outcomes than interest scores alone (r = 0.16). Moreover, the authors found that congruence indices using more than one interest type in their calculations have higher validity than indices using just the first-letter code. Other, more specific aspects of job performance include task performance (i.e., how well an individual carries out their job duties), organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB; i.e., behaviour that helps the organisation beyond job tasks), persistence (i.e., staying in the job or organisation), and counterproductive work behaviour (CWB; i.e., behaviour that harms the organisation such as absenteeism or theft). The Nye et al. (2017) meta-analysis found strong correlations between interest congruence and task performance (r = 0.27), OCB (r = 0.36), and persistence (r = 0.26), but weaker correlations between congruence and CWB (r = 0.19). Essentially, these findings suggest that employees whose interests match their occupational environment are more likely to successfully perform job duties, demonstrate commitment to their organisation, and remain in the job longer.

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Vocational interests are also highly related to aspects of career success. Career success can be separated into two broad components: subjective and objective career success (Heslin, 2005). Subjective career success refers to individuals’ personal evaluations of their careers. Similar to job satisfaction, it is usually self-reported and not highly related to vocational interests. On the other hand, objective career success refers to aspects of individuals’ careers that are observable and can be directly measured. Objective measures of success typically capture upward mobility in careers (e.g., salary, promotions, or occupational prestige) and are therefore closely related to job performance. Vocational interests are particularly strong predictors of salary, among the various measures of objective career success. Several large-scale studies have shown that individuals who are more interested in their work tend to earn more than their peers (Huang & Pearce, 2013; Neumann, Olitsky, & Robbins, 2009; Su, 2012). For example, with a sample of 400,000 high school students, Su (2012) showed that vocational interests measured at the end of high school were strongly correlated with income 11 years later. Interests accounted for substantially more variance in income levels (83%) compared to personality traits (5%) and cognitive abilities (12%). Su (2012) also found that vocational interests predicted occupational prestige and several indicators of academic success (i.e., degree attainment, college persistence, and college grades). Although cognitive ability was more important than interests for predicting these latter outcomes, interests were substantially more important than personality traits (Rounds & Su, 2014). Together, these findings highlight the usefulness of interest assessments for predicting job performance, academic accomplishments, and career success. Given these findings, career guidance practitioners should discuss interest assessment results as more important for predicting

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future performance than satisfaction. This does not mean that being interested in one’s job is irrelevant to job satisfaction. Rather, interest fit is just one of many factors that determine whether an individual is satisfied with their job. It is also possible that job performance mediates the relationship between interest fit and satisfaction. On average, employees who are more interested in their work perform better; and as a result, they may become more satisfied. Longitudinal studies are needed to investigate this possibility and to establish other causal links between interests and work outcomes. Conclusion Recent research findings have led to new knowledge about how vocational interests develop and the outcomes associated with being interested in one’s work. We have argued that these new findings challenge two core assumptions about the nature of vocational interests, with implications for theory and practice. First, the career guidance field could benefit from a more comprehensive theory of vocational interest development that integrates findings on stability and change across the life span (Hoff et al., in press; Low et al., 2005). Current theories of interest development primarily focus on how new interests develop, not how existing interests change over time (e.g., Hidi & Renninger, 2006; Holland, 1997; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994; Renninger & Hidi, 2016). The implicit assumption has been that interests do not change once they are developed, or that changes are small and unimportant. Our recent meta-analysis casts doubt on this assumption, but future research is needed to better understand the consequences of age-related changes in vocational interest levels. Second, practitioners can benefit from rethinking the importance of vocational interest fit when working with clients. Research has consistently revealed that interest fit is a weak predictor of job satisfaction, yet a strong predictor of job performance and career success (Assouline &

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Meir, 1987; Nye et al., 2012, 2017; Rounds & Su, 2014; Stoll et al., 2016; Su, 2012; Tranberg, Slane & Ekeberg, 1993; Tsabari, Tziner & Meir, 2005). The practical implications of this finding are clear. Being interested in a job is just one factor, among many, that helps determine whether employees are satisfied. Values assessments should be used to help clients find satisfying jobs because they account for factors like working conditions, job autonomy, and opportunities for advancement. On the other hand, interest assessments should be used to guide clients towards occupations where they will likely perform better and make more money.

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FIGURES

Figure 1. Population estimates of mean vocational interest stability across age categories. Error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals for each age group. Observed Stability = unadjusted estimates; Adjusted Stability 1 = adjusted estimates with controls for time interval; Adjusted Stability 2 = adjusted estimates with profile correlations excluded and controls for time interval. Adapted from “The Stability of Vocational Interests from Early Adolescence to Middle Adulthood: A Quantitative Review of Longitudinal Studies,” by K. S. D. Low, M. Yoon, B. W. Roberts, & J. Rounds, 2005, Psychological Bulletin, 131, p. 723. Copyright 2005 by the American Psychological Association.

Commented [KH1]: To follow up on our email exchange from 21 Dec, this is the APA format for reproducing figures (even when they do not require permission, as in our case).

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Figure 2. Cumulative changes in RIASEC vocational interests from adolescence to adulthood. Solid lines represent cumulative effect sizes (d-values) from ages 11-14, 14-18, 18-22, and 22-30. Dotted lines represent effect sizes for the 18-42 age category, which included only studies with long retest intervals

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spanning late adolescence through middle adulthood. Adapted from “Normative Changes in Interests from Adolescence to Adulthood: A Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Studies,” by K. A. Hoff, D. A. Briley, C. J. M. Wee, & J. Rounds, (in press), Psychological Bulletin. Copyright 2017 by the American Psychological Association.

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Figure 3. Gender differences in Realistic and Social interests from adolescence to adulthood. Solid lines represent cumulative effect sizes (d-values) from ages 11-14 and 14-30. Dotted lines represent effect sizes for the 18-42 age category which included only studies with long retest intervals spanning late adolescence through middle adulthood. Adapted from “Normative Changes in Interests from Adolescence to Adulthood: A Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Studies,” by K. A. Hoff, D. A. Briley, C. J. M. Wee, & J. Rounds, (in press), Psychological Bulletin. Copyright 2017 by the American Psychological Association.