Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - International Republican Institute

Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll Conducted: April 3-13, 2010

International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization with funding from the United States Agency for International Development

1 IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization

KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

METHODOLOGY •

This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. Field work was carried out by the Institute for Comparative Social ResearchKazakhstan.

•

The national representative survey was carried out from April 3 - 13, 2010. The eligibility criteria was based on age (18 years and older). A sample of 1,527 Kazakh participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.

•

The sample design was a multi-stage probability sample. – Stage one: the sample was stratified into 16 regions. – Stage two: the sample was further stratified into rural, urban and metropolitan sampling units. – Stage three: Primary Sampling Units (PSU) were described.

•

The closest birthday rule was used for the selection of the respondent. The households were selected using random route method.

•

The sample was distributed at the regional level, in rural and urban areas, in all 16 regions of Kazakhstan.

•

The response rate was 61 percent.

•

The margin of error for the survey results does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent with the confidence level of 95 percent.

•

One hundred and thirty-two interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 8-13 interviews in one PSU. The interviews were done in Russian, Kazakh and Uzbek languages.

•

Due to rounding, charts may not add up to 100 percent.



Survey Demographics Male 47% Female 53% Urban 60% Rural 40% Age 18 to 29 30-49 50+

31% 41% 28%

Education Primary 2% Secondary unfinished 3% Secondary 29% Vocational 31% Higher unfinished 9% University, higher 27%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization

Monthly Household Income Up to 25,000 tenge 25,001 - 40,000 tenge 40,001- 60,000 tenge More than 60,000 tenge No answer Ethnicity Kazakh Russian Uzbek Ukrainian Tartar Other

23% 18% 16% 25% 18%

56% 30% 4% 2% 3% 3%

Language of Interview Russian 80% Kazakh 17% Uzbek 3% KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

3

Region

Pavlodar 5%

North Kazakhstan 5%

South Kazakhstan 13%

Astana city Almaty city 4% 9%

Almaty 10% Akmola 5%

Mangystau 2%

Aktyubinsk 4%

Kostanai 6% Kyzylorda 4% Karaganda 9%

West Kazakhstan 4%

Atyrau 3% Zhambyl 6%

East Kazakstan 10%



SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX



Generally speaking, would you say that things in Kazakhstan are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 100%

90%

90% 80% 70%

76%

72%

79%

74%

77%

67%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

18%

12%

14%

12%

5%

10%

11%

10%

0% Jul-04

Sep-05

Aug-08

Right direction IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization

Feb-09

May-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Wrong direction KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

6

In the past year, has your personal financial situation gotten better, worse or stayed the same? 60% 50%

43%

43% 39%

40%

47%

50%

38% 30% 20%

33%

31% 24%

20%

1%

3%

25%

23%

21%

10%

26%

24%

3%

3% 3%

0% Aug-08 Better

Feb-09 Worse

May-09

Oct-09

Stayed the same

Apr-10 DK/NR 7



In the next year, do you expect the economic situation in Kazakhstan to get better, worse or stay the same? 60%

54%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

46%

50%

30%

33%

44% 33% 27% 17%

26%

32% 23%

12%

12%

Aug-08

Feb-09

14%

11%

10%

11% 7%

10%

0% Better

May-09 Worse

Oct-09 Same

Apr-10 DK/NR 8



ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX



Some argue that Kazakhstan is now experiencing a serious financial crisis. Do you agree or disagree with this idea? 67% agree

Apr-10

24

26% disagree

43

20

73% agree

Oct-09

25

20% disagree

48

13

78% agree

May-09

36 0

20 Strongly agree Strongly disagree

7 1 6

18% disagree

42 40

6 1 6

60

Somewhat agree No response

13 80

5 13 100

Somewhat disagree Don't know 10



Do you think the government is doing a very good, good, bad or very bad job handling the problems of the world financial crisis? 55% Good job Apr-10

4

29% Poor job

51

25

56% Good job Oct-09

5

0

Very good

22

40

Good


14

24% Poor job

51

20

4 2

Bad

60

Very bad

No response

2 4

16

80

100

Don't know


11

Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you? (Responses 2% or greater)

20

Low standard of living and low income Inflation and price increase

24 23 25 23

Unemployment and threat of losing a job

18 2 4

Corruption

3

Low quality and high prices of health services 2

Increase in level of crime

44

3 3 3 3 3 4

Solution of housing problems Quality and accessibility of education

2

1

Don't know /No answer

2 2

0

32

35

21 25 22

7

Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10

6 5

3 3

2 2 3 2

Not a sufficient level of support to small businesses

6

29

4

3

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40



Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be a problem in the country. Please tell me if you think it is a very big problem, a moderately big problem, a small problem or not a problem at all? The spread of HIV/AIDS or other infectious diseases

67 64

Illegal drugs

Pollution

49

Corrupt government officials

49

29

Increases in the price of utilities

48

30

0 Very big problem

20

Moderately big problem

20

7 15

24

6 15

35

40 Small problem

60 Not a problem at all

10 9 13 80

2

33 11 5 4 100




Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be a problem in the country. Please tell me if you think it is a very big problem, a moderately big problem, a small problem or not a problem at all? 44

Human rights violations

People leaving Kazakhstan for jobs in other countries

33

People from other countries coming to Kazakhstan looking for jobs

29

Conflicts between ethnic or nationality groups

28

A lack of quality public transportation

27 0

Very big problem

29

14

31 34 25

20

Moderately big problem

40 Small problem

8

18

10

8

20

9

8

21

32

5

15 24

60 Not a problem at all

11 10

80

6 100




Thinking about this past winter, how would you rate the service of your basic utilities heat, gas and electricity – very good, good, bad or very bad? 71% Good

11

0

23% Poor

60

20

Very good

18

40

Good

Bad


60

Very bad

No response

80

5

2 4

100

Don't know


15

Thinking about this past winter, how would you rate the service of your basic utilities heat, gas and electricity - very good, good, bad or very bad? (Breakdown by region) 100

80

6

4

3

3

9

12

18

18

29 66

60

40

No response/ Don't know 79

76

Bad

89 59

20

Good

30

0

South

East

North

West

Center 16


KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, October 2009

Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts to fight corruption? 42% Satisfied Apr-10

6

44% Unsatisfied

36

26

53% Satisfied Oct-09

10

0

Very satisfied Very unsatisfied IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization

11

3

26% Unsatisfied

43

20

18

17

40

60

Somewhat satisfied No response

9

4

17

80

100

Somewhat unsatisfied Don't know


17

Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts to reduce unemployment? 50% Satisfied

8

0

42% Unsatisfied

42

20

Very satisfied Very unsatisfied

27

40

60

Somewhat satisfied No response


15

2

8

80

100

Somewhat unsatisfied Don't know


18

There are reports that the government is considering a plan to lease a large area of Kazakhstani land to China for agricultural use. Would you support or oppose the government leasing Kazakhstani land to China?

I would support a decision to lease the land to China 5%

I would oppose a decision to lease the land to China 81%

Don't know 12% No response 2%



Are people in Kazakhstan afraid to openly express their political views? Apr-10

14

Oct-09

19

19

20

May-09

24

Feb-09

24

Aug-08

19 15 29

8

Jul-04

32

25

0

22 11 12

26

27

35

Many are afraid

40 Some are afraid

60 Nobody is afraid

5 6

11

40

20

Majority are afraid

24

26 29

14

21

31

29

Sep-05

27

5

21

5

16

8

80

100




Why do you think people are afraid to openly express their political views? (Respondents who think that people are afraid, N=788) 17

They don't want complications in the future

11

They are afraid to lose their job

5

They are afraid of punishment from leadership

4

They are threatened with punishment They do not trust the government

2

They worry about themselves and their families

2

Nobody listens

2

They are not interested in politics Other

1 2 35

Don't know No response

19



How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of Islamic extremism in Kazakhstan these days? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?

23

0

39

20

Very concerned Not at all concerned

40

11

60

Somewhat concerned No response


12

2

80

13

100

Not too concerned Don't know


22

Do you believe democracy is the right form of government for Kazakhstan or not?

Apr-10

47

Feb-09

34

41

0

10

Yes

20

6

41

30

Maybe


40

50

No

60

No response

3

6

70

80

10

9

90

3

100

Don't know


23

Since Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) was banned in 2005, its successor Alga (DCK) has been unable to obtain registration with the Ministry of Justice. Do you believe that it is wrong for the government to deny legal status to a major opposition party?

Apr-10

35

21

9

35

May-09

34

22

8

36

19

10

35

Feb-09

36

Aug-08

39 0

22

20

Wrong

40

Right

5 60

No response

34 80

100

Don't know 24



INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS



Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very good performance. Fighting corruption

45

32

Poverty reduction

44

34

42

Employment Fighting crime

39

Housing

39

Development of roads and highways Preserving the environment

33

Democratic reforms

32

Healthcare

31

Water quality and availability

21

Improving educational system

20

Poor

30

5 2

26

5 2 5 2

35

26

29

35

2 4 2

23

35

32 31

52

23

9

37

33

13

22

53

National security

13

21

55 40

Good

60

No answer

2 31

62

19

Neither poor, nor good

7

30

35

20

5 1

22

Foreign policy

0

5

20

27

15

Availability of electricity

41

20

35

35

6 1

17

33

37

Inflation control

16

9 9 80

3 3 100

Don't know 26



Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very good performance. October 2009

Poverty reduction

43

Employment

36

Fighting corruption

35

33

Housing

35

34

2

22

8 1 5

25

2 6

25

37

Fighting crime

28

36

29

1 6

Healthcare

28

37

29

1 5

24

Development of roads and highways Preserving the environment

22


21

Improving educational system

19

Democratic reforms

20

Foreign policy

10

21

0

Neither poor, nor good

2 3

54

Good

60

No answer

9 2 4

63

40

7

16

4

54

23

20

2

34

33

11

14 36

36


8

51

23

12

2

33

34

14

2 6

40

28

National security

Poor

14

25

34

30

Inflation control

2 5

19

30

12

80

100

Don't know 27



Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very good performance. (Only those responding that the government’s performance is poor) October 2009

April 2010

% Change from Oct-09 to Apr-10

Poverty reduction

43%

44%

+1%

Employment

36%

43%

+7%

Fighting Corruption

35%

45%

+10%

Housing

35%

39%

+4%

Inflation Control

30%

35%

+5%

Fighting crime

28%

39%

+11%

Healthcare

24%

31%

+7%

Development of roads and highways

24%

37%

+13%

Preserving the environment

22%

33%

+11%


21%

21%

Improving the educational system

19%

20%

+1%

Democratic reforms

14%

32%

+18%

National Security

12%

13%

+1%


11%

15%

+4%

Foreign policy

10%

13%

+3%



28

Please tell how much corruption you think there is in each of the following institutions. Do you think there is none, not very much, a fair amount or a great deal? Road police

41

Customs service

28

31

Universities

31

26

The courts

18

Office of the Prosecutor General Kazakhstani companies

16 13

Army

21

31

11

Foreign companies

11

Political parties

10

22

21

Parliament

10

22

21

8

Office of the President 0

Great deal of corruption

30

20 20 Fair amount

40 Not much

25

8

23

21

5

22

10

26

22

29

8

26

Banks

18

8

19

33

20 4

18

26

18

6

19

37

16

4

16

29

23

3

12

10

23 36 37

12

35

16

36 60 No corruption

80

100 Don't know



Please tell how much corruption you think there is in each of the following institutions. Do you think there is none, not very much, a fair amount or a great deal? October 2009 37

Road police 28

Customs service

Banks

12

Kazakhstani companies

12

Army

12

29

29 24

Parliament

10

25

Office of the President

8

21

Foreign companies

8

22 20 Fair amount

21 40 Not much

18

5

19 30 25 29

10 10

19 19

4

6

25 19

17

9

21

15

5

7

20

31

10

Great deal of corruption

17

34

Political parties

0

19

36

17

Office of the Prosecutor General

18

34

21

The courts

3

15

35

26

Universities

11

34

24 37

11 15

35 37

12

37 60 No corruption

80

100 Don't know



Have you or someone you know had to pay a bribe or offer a gift to a government employee or official in the following situations?

19

To a local official for a license, permit or service

70

11 21

To a government official for a job consideration

68

11

Yes

22

To a teacher or school administrator to pass exams

67

11

Don't know/ No response

35

To a police officer for a traffic violation

54

11 38

For health services in a public clinic or hospital

52

10 0


10

No

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


31

Do you have confidence in the fairness of the judicial system and courts in the country?

Apr-10

24

Oct-09

58

27

0

47

20

Yes, I have confidence

40

No, I am not confident


14

4

4

60

No response

22

80

100

Don't know


32

How would you rate each of the following institutions? (Favorable responses only) 92 94 87 91 84

80 80 72 7374

80 75 73 70 71

79 78 78 79 73 676769 68 65

71 62 59 57 57

70 63 60 59 54

52 56 56 49 51

57 54 53 51

52 52 515053 47 48 50 47 47

40

53 4848 45 43

50 46 4544

Feb-09


May-09

Apr-10


The opposition

The police

The courts

Religious associations

Political parties

Oct-09

Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)/ public associations

Aug-08

Maslikhats

Local Akimat

The army

The government

Kazakhstan's media

Parliament

President

33

33

Would you describe your household’s current standard of living as very good, good, bad or very bad?

5

0

62

20

Very good

20

40

Good

Bad


60

Very Bad

No response

2 3

80

9

100

Don't know


34

How would you evaluate the income of your household? 100

3 2

4 2

17

14

80

60

32

5 3

6 3

5 3

17

18

17

35

35

32 34

36

12

12

Aug-08

Feb-09

We can afford almost whatever we want We are able to buy some more expensive goods, but should save on other things We are able to buy what is necessary, but we cannot afford more expensive goods

40 33

Don't know, No answer

30

29

30

11

9

10

May-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

20

0

We are able to buy only basic products We do not have enough money for the basic needs



ELECTION INDEX



To what extent are you interested in politics? Not at all interested No response 13% 1% Don't know 1%

Not very interested 31%

Very interested 11%

Somewhat interested 43%



In the past year, have you been an active member of any group that tries to influence public policy or government?

Yes 8% Don't know 3% No response 2%

No 87%



If parliamentary elections were held next week, how likely is it that you would vote? 65% Likely to vote

Apr-10

27% Likely not to vote 31

34

12

70% Likely to vote 37

Oct-09

33

12

38

81% Likely to vote 41

Somewhat likely

40 Not very likely


6

10

5

4

5

12% Likely not to vote 37

20

Very likely

7

40

47

0

9

14% Likely not to vote

84% Likely to vote

Aug-08

10


44

Feb-09

8


82% Likely to vote

May-09

15

60 Not vote at all

9

3 4

80 Don't know/No response


100 39

Why wouldn’t you vote in parliamentary elections if they were held next week? (If not very likely to vote or not at all, N=408) 26

I don't believe elections will be fair 24

My vote doesn't change anything I don't have enough information about parties and candidates

14 13

I am not interested in politics 9

I don't have time to go to the polls 8

I don't like any party or candidate For health reasons

1 3


1



Which political parties working in your region do you know? (Open ended, all mentioned) 62

Nur Otan 7

Ak Zhol 2

Auyl Alga Communist Party of Kazakhstan

66

9

3 4 3

2 1

Azat

Assar

2 0.7 2 0.7 1 0.7 0.9

Adilet

0.6

Party of Patriots

Social Democratic party

0.4 1 0.2 0.7

Atameken

0.5

Rukhaniyat Party Zhas Otan

Communist Peoples party

Oct-09 Apr-10

1 0.6 0.7 0.4

Other No political parties

26 26


6 0

9 10

20

30

40

50

60

70



INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS



How serious of a threat is al Qaeda to Kazakhstan? Is it a very serious threat, a somewhat serious threat, a minor threat or not a threat at all?

21

0

29

20

Very serious threat Not a threat at all

14

40

12

60

Somewhat serious threat No response


21

3

80

100

Minor threat Don't know


43

SOURCES OF INFORMATION



What are the main sources of political information for you? 87 85 86

Kazakhstan's TV stations

86 84

Russian TV stations

52

58

64 61 61

Kazakhstan's newspapers

Relatives, friends

Internet

46 47 45

17

15

Kazakhstan's radio stations

52

57

29 21 21 23

22 21

Aug-08 Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10

21

23

21 22 22

27 24



What are the main sources of political information for you? 13

Russian radio stations

12 12

Russian newspapers

10

Magazines

8

Other foreign TV stations

3

Other foreign radio stations Other foreign newspapers Don't know

3

13 12

8

4

2 3

1

27

12

3

2


1 1 1

2

1

No response

6

14

16

12

9 8

21

1 1 1 1

2

2



How do you rate the credibility of these information sources on a fivefivepoint scale where one means very unreliable and five means very credible? (Credible responses only)

60 56

55 5252 52 47

43 4442

47 45 45 43 42

49

48 40

41

38 35

45

41 40 38 37 37 36 35 34 34 30 30 27 27

29

26 22 22 21

24


Other foreign radio stations

Other foreign TV stations

Magazines

Internet

Russian newspapers

Russian radio stations

Relatives, friends

Kazakhstan's radio stations

Kazakhstan's newspapers

Russian TV stations

Kazakhstan's TV stations

16

24 21 20 20 20 19 18 17


Other foreign newspapers

70 67 67 68 65 63 62 61 61 57


47

On average, how often do you use Internet? 100

3

3 No response/Don't know

80

Never 63

56 Less often

60

Once a month 40

20

6 5 5

5 4 6 12

9 0

9

Oct-09

14

Once a week A few times per week Everyday

Apr-10 48



What do you use the Internet for mostly? Users of Internet, N=638 (All mentioned)

54

Research 44

Email 42

Chat 40

Work 16

Games 14

Listen to music

13

Watch videos 7

Blog Shop

3

Don't know

3 1

No response 0

10

20

30

40

50

60



Where do you most regularly access the Internet?

42 44

Home 22

Work Relative's or friend's home

9 9

Internet café

9 8

30

Oct-09 N=566 Apr-10 N=638

5 5

Cell phone or mobile connection 1 1

School, university Don't know

7

2

No response

5

1 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50



Does your home have satellite or cable TV?

Both 5% Neither 32%

No response 1% Don't know 1%

Cable 33%

Satellite 28%



Does your home have satellite or cable TV? (Breakdown by population density)

100

2

3

28

23

80

3

28

2

41

5 6

60

17

7

20

4

20

No response/Don't know Neither Both Satellite Cable

40 42 20

48

50

41 12

0

Astana, Almaty

Regional centers

Towns

Villages, auls

