Knowledge, attitude and practices of coastal communities in Trinidad and Tobago about tsunamis La Daana K. Kanhai, Delezia Singh, Bruce Lauckner, Kristie L. Ebi & Dave D. Chadee Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards ISSN 0921-030X Volume 81 Number 2 Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349-1372 DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2138-3
1 23
Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer Science +Business Media Dordrecht. This e-offprint is for personal use only and shall not be selfarchived in electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your article, please use the accepted manuscript version for posting on your own website. You may further deposit the accepted manuscript version in any repository, provided it is only made publicly available 12 months after official publication or later and provided acknowledgement is given to the original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be accompanied by the following text: "The final publication is available at link.springer.com”.
1 23
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372 DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2138-3 ORIGINAL PAPER
Knowledge, attitude and practices of coastal communities in Trinidad and Tobago about tsunamis La Daana K. Kanhai1 • Delezia Singh2 • Bruce Lauckner3 Kristie L. Ebi4 • Dave D. Chadee2
•
Received: 11 April 2015 / Accepted: 21 December 2015 / Published online: 13 January 2016 Ó Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016
Abstract Tsunamis are natural hazards that have affected the Caribbean in the past and are projected to do so in the future. In order to mitigate the devastating impacts of tsunamis, awareness and preparedness is critical amongst local populations. This study investigated the knowledge, attitude and practices of coastal residents in one Caribbean country (Trinidad and Tobago) about tsunamis. Fifty residents were interviewed in each of three coastal communities in Trinidad and four coastal communities in Tobago. Interviewees generally lacked basic tsunami awareness (\20 % were fully aware of a basic definition of a tsunami, only 57 % indicated that natural signs in the environment could be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival, and 92 % were unaware of past tsunamis in the Caribbean). Interviewees possessed an attitude that was consistent with the popular saying/ perception that ‘God is a Trini’ as (1) 46 % indicated that there was no or very little likelihood that Trinidad and Tobago would be hit by a tsunami in the next 10 years and (2) 57 % indicated that if a tsunami were to occur God will be the entity most likely to prevent the loss of life. There was a lack of tsunami preparedness by individuals as 93 % of the interviewees did not have an emergency plan for a tsunami. Overall, 85 % of the interviewees indicated that public education programmes about tsunamis had never been conducted in their community. Baseline data from this study will be useful in (1) evaluating the effectiveness of current tsunami awareness and preparedness efforts and (2) Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11069-015-2138-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. & La Daana K. Kanhai
[email protected] 1
Marine and Freshwater Research Centre, Galway Mayo Institute of Technology, Galway, Ireland
2
Department of Life Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
3
Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI), c/o The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
4
Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
123
Author's personal copy 1350
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
informing the implementation of new programmes which target existing knowledge gaps. Furthermore, it is envisioned that this study will also provide the necessary foundation for future KAP studies about tsunamis in other Caribbean islands. Keywords
Tsunami Disasters Knowledge Attitude Practice Trinidad Tobago
1 Introduction Tsunamis are natural hazards that have garnered worldwide attention due to their devastating impacts on humans and the built and natural environment. According to the Tsunami Glossary of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the Japanese word ‘tsunami’, which translates to ‘harbour wave’ in English, is a series of travelling waves that may be generated by disturbances associated with earthquakes occurring below or near the ocean floor, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides and coastal rock falls (IOC 2013). Events that do not fit into this definition are meteorological tsunamis or meteotsunamis, i.e. waves generated by meteorological or atmospheric perturbations, e.g. storm surges (Tinti et al. 2004; IOC 2013). During the course of history, tsunamis have led to the loss of human lives, the destruction of infrastructure, coastal flooding, environmental damage and economic loss amounting to billions of dollars (IOC 2013). Of the tsunamis that were reported within the past two decades, the three that were responsible for the greatest loss of lives had the following source locations (1) Banda Aceh, Indonesia, December 2004 (227,898 persons estimated dead or missing near and outside the source region), (2) Tohoku, Japan, March 2011 (18,717 persons estimated dead or missing near and outside the source region) and (3) Papua New Guinea, July 1998 (2205 persons estimated dead or missing) (IOC 2013). Following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, damage and economic loss across the entire affected region was estimated to be approximately 9.9 billion US dollars (Telford and Cosgrave 2006). More recently, the economic loss associated with the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami was an estimated 235 billion US dollars, causing it to be ranked as the costliest geophysical disaster in the world (The Economist 2011). The Caribbean is one of the regions in the world in which tsunamis are a reality. This stems from the fact that (1) tsunamis have occurred in the region in the past and (2) the geological setting is such that the Caribbean is prone to seismic and volcanic activity capable of generating tsunamis (Pararas-Carayannis 2004). Between 1498 and the present, an estimated 85–106 tsunamis were documented in the Caribbean (Lander et al. 2002; Harbitz et al. 2012; NOAA 2015). The most recent of these tsunamis occurred in Haiti as a result of the December 2010 earthquake and caused at least three fatalities (Fritz et al. 2013). However, the most recent devastating tsunami event in the Caribbean was the Dominican Republic tsunami of 1946 which claimed 1800 lives (von Hillebrandt-Andrade 2013). Overall, tsunamis in the Caribbean have reportedly caused more than 15,000 fatalities (Harbitz et al. 2012). Past tsunamis in the Caribbean Region were reported to have been caused by earthquakes (74 %), volcanoes (14 %) and landslides (7 %) (Harbitz et al. 2012). Future Caribbean tsunamis may occur as a result of (1) earthquakes near the Lesser Antilles and Hispaniola, (2) volcanic eruptions and subsequent landslides on Montserrat (Soufriere Hills), Martinique (Mt. Pele´e), St. Vincent (La Soufrie`re) and St. Lucia, (3) the eruption of the submarine volcano ‘Kick‘em Jenny’ off the north coast of Grenada, (4) destabilisation (via a submarine landslide) of the present-day ‘Kick‘em
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1351
Jenny’ edifice (Smith and Shepherd 1995; Heinrich et al. 1999; Pararas-Carayannis 2004; Dondin et al. 2012; Harbitz et al. 2012) and (5) submarine landslides initiated by earthquakes (Lopez-Venegas et al. 2015). Based on these potential sources, the Caribbean Sea and its environs were identified as a tsunami hazard zone (Proenza and Maul 2010). In the Caribbean Region, the potential for human and economic loss as a result of tsunamis has risen in comparison with previous decades due to increases in coastal population size, beach tourism, as well as infrastructural and economic activity at the coast (Proenza and Maul 2010; von Hillebrandt-Andrade 2013). Similar to many Caribbean countries, Trinidad and Tobago, the most southerly islands in the Caribbean archipelago, may have experienced tsunamis in the past and may potentially be subject to such geophysical hazards in the future. The country possibly experienced tsunamis in (1) 1795 (probable tsunami, source-earthquake), (2) 1825 (questionable tsunami, source-earthquake), (3) 1831 (tsunami assessed as unlikely/doubtful, source-earthquake), (4) 1911 (probable tsunami, source-mud volcano explosion) and (5) 1997 (source-earthquake off the coast of Venezuela) (Lander et al. 2002; NOAA 2015). Kick‘em Jenny, a submarine volcano located approximately 8 km north of Grenada, is the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc (Lindsay et al. 2005). If Kick‘em Jenny were to erupt, tsunami waves could potentially reach the coasts of Trinidad and Tobago in less than an hour with wave heights ranging between 3.55 and 7.11 m (worst case scenario, volcanic explosive index (VEI) of 6) and 0.55–1.09 m (realistic scenario, volcanic explosive index (VEI) of 3) (Smith and Shepherd 1993). More recently, it was suggested that a large violent eruption of Kick‘em Jenny may generate waves with a run-up of 1–2 m on the coasts of Trinidad and that if the volcano were to break the surface, the projected run-up would be greater (Pararas-Carayannis 2004). Furthermore, due to its seismic setting, Trinidad and Tobago has experienced earthquakes in the past and remains prone to these disasters (ODPM 2014). Of note is the fact that earthquakes were responsible for 74 % of tsunamis that occurred in the Caribbean Region and thus may be the source of a future tsunami in Trinidad and Tobago (Harbitz et al. 2012). A portion of Trinidad and Tobago’s 1.3 million inhabitants live in low-lying coastal areas around both islands and thus would be at risk if a tsunami were to hit the country (CSO 2012). Darsan et al. (2013) indicated that the effects of a simulated 10-m tsunami on Trinidad’s east coast would be devastating and result in damage/destruction of beach front property, damage to the main road and destruction of the coconut estates and the Nariva Swamp. Basic disaster preparedness and awareness is fundamental to mitigating the devastating impacts (particularly the loss of human lives) which may be inflicted by tsunamis (Harbitz et al. 2012). In Trinidad and Tobago, the three primary organisations which are involved in tsunami awareness and preparedness activities are the (1) Seismic Research Centre (SRC), (2) Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) and (3) Tobago Emergency Management Authority (TEMA). Of these, the first is a non-state agency while the latter two are state agencies. In collaboration with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), the SRC was involved in the public education component of a USAID funded Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System (TCHWS) project (SRC 2010). Under this project, the SRC: (1) prepared a suite of region-specific multimedia products (pamphlets, media kits, public service announcements, etc.) about tsunamis, (2) developed teacher resource kits with lesson plans and teaching charts to be used for children in the 12–15 year age group and (3) developed a Tsunami Smart brand whose overall aim was to increase tsunami awareness across the region (SRC 2010). Under the Tsunami Smart brand, one area of focus was promoting awareness of a tsunami’s natural warning signs (SRC 2010). In 2009, the SRC also focused on the theme ‘Understanding
123
Author's personal copy 1352
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Tsunamis’ during Earth Science Week and carried out the following education and outreach activities at coastal communities in Trinidad whereby (1) geography students from the Mayaro Secondary School were hosted at a tsunami student workshop at the SRC headquarters in Trinidad and (2) SRC staff visited the Cedros Secondary School to conduct a tsunami awareness workshop with students (SRC 2010). State agencies in Trinidad and Tobago also play a critical role in tsunami awareness and preparedness. The ODPM in Trinidad and TEMA in Tobago have adopted a multi-hazard approach whereby coastal residents in certain communities were briefed on multiple disasters (one of which was tsunamis). Specifically, the ODPM was able to accomplish such outreach efforts through their 5-year CORE (Communities Organised and Ready for Emergencies) programme in Trinidad. Local authorities in Tobago have also engaged coastal residents in tsunami drills in order to build tsunami awareness and preparedness. In 2014, TEMA hosted a ‘Dark Wave’ exercise that involved a tsunami drill in the communities of Roxborough and Canaan in Tobago. Furthermore, in Trinidad, the ODPM posted ‘Be Tsunami Smart’ signs that were developed by the SRC on popular bathing beaches along the north (Maracas), east (Manzanilla, Mayaro) and west (Vessigny) coasts of Trinidad. These signs advise the public to run to higher ground if they (1) feel a strong earthquake, (2) see the water withdraw an unusual distance and (3) hear a strange roar. No such signs are present on the beaches of Tobago. To date, tsunami sirens are only available in Canaan, Tobago. These sirens were installed at Canaan so that once a tsunami warning is received, TEMA will be able to remotely sound the siren and issue a warning to the residents of that community. In Trinidad, under the Risk Reduction Management Centre (RRMC) project, early warning points (EWPs) were set up in the Mayaro/Rio Claro Regional Corporation in order to provide information such as tsunami warning alerts to coastal residents. At the regional level, the IOC successfully established a Caribbean Early Warning System (EWS) in the majority of Caribbean countries and territories whereby each participating country/territory has a designated body which serves as a tsunami contact warning point (von Hillebrandt-Andrade 2013). In Trinidad and Tobago, under the Caribbean EWS, the ODPM is the local tsunami contact warning point which is responsible for coordinating and issuing tsunami alerts to locally established early warning points. The knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey is a useful tool that may be utilised to investigate what people know (knowledge), how they feel (attitude) and what they do (practice) about a particular topic (Vandamme 2009). Such surveys have traditionally been utilised for (1) diagnostic purposes, (2) designing appropriate interventions and (3) evaluating the effectiveness of existing programmes, in the area of public health (Vandamme 2009). Within the Caribbean Region, KAP surveys have been utilised in relation to public health as well as environmental issues (Parimi et al. 2004; Hariharan et al. 2006; Rawlins et al. 2007; Rotimi and Oluwafemi 2008; Mohan and Chadee 2011). To the authors’ knowledge, however, KAP surveys have never been utilised in the Caribbean Region to gather information from local populations about their awareness and preparedness regarding natural hazards such as tsunamis. However, regarding other natural hazards, Ash (2013) utilised semi-structured interviews to investigate seismic hazard perception in the eastern Caribbean island of Tobago. In other regions in the world, specifically designed surveys have in the past been used to gather information from local populations about tsunamis. For example, in central Vietnam, 153 persons were interviewed using a structured questionnaire in order to assess their awareness of tsunamis (Esteban et al. 2014). Surveys have also been administered following the occurrence of tsunamis such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2009 American Samao Tsunami in order to gain insights into the local population’s level of awareness and preparedness prior to the event
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1353
and their behaviour during the event (Esteban et al. 2013; Yun and Hamada 2014; Lindell et al. 2015). In order to appropriately evaluate the effectiveness of current programmes regarding tsunami awareness and preparedness, data regarding the awareness of vulnerable inhabitants (e.g. coastal dwellers) to tsunamis are vital. To date, such data are non-existent for Caribbean islands. In an attempt to begin the process of filling this key information gap, this present study focused on one Caribbean country: Trinidad and Tobago. The overall goal of this study is to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of coastal dwellers in selected communities in Trinidad and Tobago about tsunamis.
2 Methods Following the development of a targeted questionnaire (Supplementary Material 1) for this study, a validation (or ‘pretest’) exercise was conducted in a coastal community in west Trinidad (St. Margaret’s, Claxton Bay) in October 2014. This community was chosen as (1) it was identical to the study population (i.e. it was a coastal community where residents lived on land \10 m in height) and (2) it was not one of the sample sites in this study. During the validation exercise, 30 residents (i.e. between 5 and 10 % of this study’s total sample size) were interviewed in the targeted community of St. Margaret’s. Based on feedback given from respondents during the validation exercise, the questionnaire underwent minor modifications prior to being used at actual sampling sites. Gumucio (2011) emphasised the importance of a ‘pretest’ in KAP studies by highlighting that such an exercise (1) certifies proper interpretation of questions by interviewees, (2) highlights the need for the re-wording of questions, (3) highlights oversights that may have slipped into the questionnaire and (4) tests the workability of the questionnaire. Communities that were deemed vulnerable to potential tsunamis, i.e. those located in coastal areas situated on land less than 10 m in height, were targeted for this study. The study was conducted during the months of November and December 2014 in three coastal communities (Maracas and Grande l’Anse on the North Coast and Mayaro on the East Coast) on the island of Trinidad and in January 2015 in four coastal communities (Buccoo and Charlotteville on the west coast and Speyside and Roxborough on the east coast) on the island of Tobago (Fig. 1). The following formula from Gumucio (2011) was used in the calculation of sample size: N¼
Z 2 ð pÞ ð1 pÞ c2
where N = sample size; Z = value corresponding to a given confidence interval (1.96 for a confidence interval of 95 %); p = percentage of the primary indicator expressed as a decimal (default 0.5); c = standard error, expressed as a decimal. Based on the above formula, a sample size of 384 individuals was calculated (where Z = 1.96, i.e. for a confidence interval of 95 %, p = 0.5, c = 0.05). Using this as an estimate and taking into account time and resource constraints, 50 residents were interviewed in each of the seven coastal communities in Trinidad and Tobago. In total, 350 persons in Trinidad and Tobago were interviewed for this study. Convenience sampling was conducted whereby residents who were at home during the surveying time were interviewed.
123
Author's personal copy 1354
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Fig. 1 Sampling sites in Trinidad and Tobago (prepared by Hamish Asmath)
The data for this study were tabulated and analysed using SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) version 21. The Chi-Square test was used to determine whether selected variables were independent of each other, and results were considered significant at the 5 % level (a = 0.05). Chi-square results were reported as follows: v2 (test statistic), df (degrees of freedom), p (p value). Previous KAP studies (Wei et al. 2014; Mohan and Chadee 2011; Rotimi and Oluwafemi 2008; Rawlins et al. 2007; Hariharan et al. 2006; Parimi et al. 2004) have used both Chi-square tests and SPSS in the analysis of their data.
3 Results 3.1 Demographics Table 1 shows the demographic characteristics of the 350 persons that were interviewed in this study. On both islands, the percentage of male (Trinidad—56.7 %, Tobago—52 %) and female (Trinidad—43.3 %, Tobago—48.0 %) interviewees was similar. The highest percentage of interviewees were between 30 and 59 years (Trinidad—47.9 %, Tobago— 53.5 %), followed by those \30 years (Trinidad—36 %, Tobago—32 %), while the
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1355
Table 1 Demographic characteristics of interviewees in Trinidad (n = 150) and Tobago (n = 200) Demographic characteristic
Trinidad
Tobago
No.
Percentage (%)
No.
Percentage (%)
Male
85
56.7
104
52.0
Female
65
43.3
96
48.0
13–19 years
15
10.0
29
14.5
20–29 years
39
26.0
35
17.5
30–39 years
20
13.3
40
20.0
40–49 years
29
19.3
31
15.5
50–59 years
23
15.3
36
18.0
60 years and over
24
16.0
29
14.5
Sex
Age groups
Ethnicity African descent
48
32.0
178
Indian descent
24
16.0
4
89.0 2.0
European descent
0
0.0
0
0
Chinese descent
0
0.0
0
0
78
52.0
18
9
Mixed Highest level of education None Primary
3
2.0
0
51
34.0
73
0 36.5
Secondary
79
52.7
103
51.5
Tertiary
17
11.3
24
12.0
smallest percentage of interviewees were 60 years and over (Trinidad—16 %, Tobago— 14.5 %). The ethnicities of the interviewees on both islands differed such that in Trinidad ethnicity distribution was Mixed (52 %) [ African (32 %) [ Indian (16 %), while in Tobago it was African (89 %) [ Mixed (9 %) [ Indian (2 %). On both islands, none of the interviewees were of European or Chinese/Asian ethnicity. The highest percentage of interviewees on both islands attained either secondary (Trinidad—52.7 %, Tobago— 51.5 %) or primary school education (Trinidad—34.0 %, Tobago—36.5 %).
3.2 Knowledge about tsunamis Table 2 provides information on the knowledge of interviewees about tsunamis. On both islands, less than 20 % of all interviewees were fully aware of a basic tsunami definition (Supplementary Information 1), while the majority (76 %) were uncertain about this (Fig. 2). While some interviewees were able to identify earthquakes (48 %), volcanic eruptions (15 %) and landslides (5 %) as tsunami sources, one-third of the interviewees (33 %) did not know what caused a tsunami (Fig. 3). In almost all the cases where interviewees provided sources in addition to the ones listed in the questionnaire, these were not correct, e.g. weather, global warming, climate change, oil exploration and exploitation activities.
123
Author's personal copy 1356
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Table 2 Knowledge of interviewees in Trinidad (n = 150) and Tobago (n = 200) about tsunamis Questionnaire variable
Trinidad
Tobago
No.
No.
Percentage (%)
Percentage (%)
Do you know what a tsunami is? Yes Not certain No
24
16.0
35
17.5
110
73.3
157
78.5
16
10.7
8
4.0
80
53.3
88
44.0
9
6.0
8
4.0
21
14.0
33
16.5
What are some of the sources of a tsunami?* Seismic (earthquake—local, regional) Seismic related (landslide—local, regional) Non-seismic (eruption of volcano—local, regional) Distant source (teletsunami)
3
2.0
1
0.5
Do not know
34
22.7
82
41.0
Other
45
30.0
44
22.0
148
98.7
200
100.0
2
1.3
0
0.0 82.0
Is a tsunami a destructive event? Yes No
What are some of the potentially destructive impacts of a tsunami?* Loss of life
98
65.3
164
Infrastructure destroyed
133
88.7
169
84.5
Environment destroyed
50
33.3
59
29.5
Coastal flooding
18
12.0
50
25.0
1
0.7
1
0.5
22
14.7
48
24.0
Do not know Other
Can a person tell by observing signs in the natural environment that a tsunami is due to arrive in a particular coastal area? Yes
100
66.7
100
Not sure
18
12.0
40
50.0 20.0
No
32
21.3
60
30.0
If response to previous question [Can a person tell by observing signs in the natural environment that a tsunami is due to arrive in a particular coastal area?] was ‘yes’, what are some signs that a tsunami is due to arrive?** Receding shoreline
60
40.0
71
Agitation of the water
11
7.3
8
35.5 4.0
Hear a loud sound coming from the sea
15
10.0
9
4.5
Strange movements of animals
12
8.0
21
10.5
Other
39
26.0
54
27.0
Do you know whether tsunamis have occurred in other parts of the world? Yes
134
89.3
189
94.5
No
16
10.7
11
5.5
Do you know if there were any tsunamis that occurred in the Caribbean in the past? Yes
19
12.7
10
5.0
No
131
87.3
190
95.0
Do you know if Trinidad and Tobago ever experienced a tsunami previously? Yes No
123
3
2.0
0
0.0
147
98.0
200
100.0
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1357
Table 2 continued Questionnaire variable
Trinidad
Tobago
No.
No.
Percentage (%)
Percentage (%)
How long would it take for a tsunami to arrive in Trinidad and Tobago if caused by local, regional sources? \1 h
33
22.0
66
33.0
Between 1 and 5 h
34
22.7
37
18.5
[5 h
12
8.0
8
4.0
I do not know
71
47.3
89
44.5
How long would it take for a tsunami to arrive in Trinidad and Tobago if caused by distant sources? \1 h
1
0.7
9
4.5
Between 1 and 5 h
22
14.7
42
21.0
[5 h
54
36.0
54
27.0
I do not know
73
48.7
95
47.5
Have any public education programmes about tsunamis ever been conducted in your community? Yes
10
6.7
11
5.5
Not sure
17
11.3
15
7.5
123
82.0
174
87.0 0.0
No
If yes, when did the public education programme take place? Past few weeks
1
0.7
0
Past few months
3
2.0
6
3.0
1–5 years ago
5
3.3
5
2.5
[5 years ago
1
0.7
0
0.0
* Percentages add up to more than 100 % since interviewees could choose multiple responses ** Interviewees could choose multiple responses
Fig. 2 Interviewees’ responses regarding knowledge of a basic definition of a tsunami
No 7%
Yes 17%
Not certain 76%
123
Author's personal copy 1358
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Percentage of Interviewees (%)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Seismic (Earthquake)
Seismic-related (Landslide)
Non-seismic (volcano)
Distant source (Teletsunami)
Do not know
Other
Identified sources of tsunamis
Fig. 3 Interviewees’ responses regarding sources of tsunamis
There was a statistically significant association between the interviewees’ level of education and their knowledge of a basic tsunami definition (v2 22.904, df 4, p \ 0.001). The level of education of the interviewees that were fully aware of a basic tsunami definition was as follows: tertiary level (36.6 %), secondary level (18.7 %) and primary level (7.9 %). The findings from this study indicated that interviewees that possessed a higher level of education were more knowledgeable about tsunamis. There was no statistically significant association between the interviewees’ knowledge of a basic tsunami definition and the demographic variables of gender (v2 5.306, df 2, p 0.07), age (v2 2.514, df 4, p 0.642) or ethnicity (v2 1.548, df 4, p 0.818). A total of 57 % of all interviewees indicated that it was possible to foretell a tsunami’s arrival based on signs in the natural environment (Fig. 4). There was a statistically significant association between the interviewees’ knowledge that natural signs could foretell a tsunami’s arrival and the demographic variables of gender (v2 6.769, df 2, p 0.034), age (v2 Fig. 4 Interviewees’ responses regarding whether signs in the environment can be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival
No 26%
Yes 57% Not sure 17%
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1359
23.728, df 10, p 0.008) and education (v2 15.448, df 4, p 0.004). Overall, in this study, a higher percentage of males (63.5 %) than of females (49.7 %) were aware that signs in the natural environment could be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival. Furthermore, a higher percentage of interviewees in the younger age brackets (e.g. 75 % of 13- to 19-year-olds) as compared to those in the older age brackets (e.g. 43.4 % of those 60 years and over) were aware that signs in the natural environment could be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival. Moreover, a higher percentage of interviewees with higher levels of education, i.e. tertiary (75.6 %) [ secondary (61 %) [ primary (45.7 %), indicated that signs in the natural environment could be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival. While 37 % of the interviewees indicated that a receding shoreline was a sign of a tsunami’s arrival, lower percentages of interviewees listed ‘strange animal movements’ (9 %), ‘hearing a loud sound coming from the sea’ (7 %) and ‘agitation of the water’ (5 %) as other warning signs (Fig. 5). Of note is the fact that a percentage of interviewees on both islands (Trinidad— 26 %, Tobago—27 %) listed signs that cannot correctly foretell a tsunami’s arrival (Fig. 5). The majority of interviewees (99 %) were aware that a tsunami is a destructive event and cited loss of life and the destruction of infrastructure as some of the potentially destructive impacts of a tsunami. Although the majority of interviewees (92 %) were aware of tsunamis that had occurred in other parts of the world, they were unaware that tsunamis had previously occurred in the Caribbean (92 %). The majority of interviewees (99 %) were also unaware that Trinidad and Tobago potentially experienced tsunamis in the past. Regarding tsunami arrival times, the highest percentage of interviewees did not know how long it would have taken for a tsunami to arrive in Trinidad and Tobago if caused by local/ regional sources (46 %) or distant sources (48 %). Over 80 % of all interviewees indicated that public education programmes about tsunamis had never been conducted in their community (Fig. 6).
Percentage of Interviewees (%)
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Receding shoreline Agitation of water Loud sound heard Strange animal from sea movement Signs that tsunami is due to arrive
Other
Fig. 5 Interviewees’ responses regarding the specific signs that can foretell a tsunami’s arrival
123
Author's personal copy 1360
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372 100 Trinidad
Tobago
Percentage of Interviewees (%)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Yes Not sure No Aware of public education programmes (related to tsunamis) in their community
Fig. 6 Interviewees’ awareness of public education programmes (related to tsunamis) in their community
3.3 Attitude about tsunamis Table 3 provides information obtained regarding the attitude of interviewees about tsunamis. There was a statistically significant difference in the attitudes of Trinidadians and Tobagonians on the likelihood of a tsunami hitting the country in the next 10 years (v2 19.935, df 3, p \ 0.001). A higher percentage of Trinidadian interviewees (37 %) than of Tobagonian interviewees (16 %) thought that it is very likely for a tsunami to hit Trinidad and Tobago in the next 10 years. Overall, the majority of interviewees (46 %) thought that there was no or very little likelihood that a tsunami would hit Trinidad and Tobago in the next 10 years. The majority of interviewees on both islands (78 %) did, however, think that they would at some point be at risk from a tsunami hazard. The majority of interviewees (57 %) indicated that in the event of a tsunami in Trinidad and Tobago, God would most likely prevent the loss of life. Interviewees also indicated that to a lesser extent, individuals (27 %), the government (13 %) and non-governmental organisations (1.5 %) would most likely prevent the loss of life in the event of such a disaster (Fig. 7). A higher percentage of interviewees disagreed (53 %) rather than agreed (25 %) that coastal communities and beachgoers would have enough time to self-evacuate from coastal areas in the event of a tsunami in Trinidad and Tobago. While the majority of interviewees disagreed (56 %) that citizens of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinbagonians) would be inclined to remain at the coast and watch a tsunami arrive rather than evacuate, a percentage of the interviewees (31 %) agreed that such a situation may occur. Regarding the issue of whether Trinbagonians would be most likely to ignore a radio/ television tsunami warning and remain near coastal areas, there was a statistically significant difference in responses from interviewees on both islands (v2 13.858, df 4, p 0.008). A higher percentage of Trinidadian (48 %) than of Tobagonian interviewees (28.5 %) agreed with the statement, while a higher percentage of Tobagonian (50 %) than of Trinidadian (36.7 %) interviewees disagreed with the statement. On both islands, the majority of interviewees (Trinidad—83.3 %, Tobago—85 %) strongly agreed that a regional tsunami early warning system was important. The
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1361
Table 3 Attitude of interviewees in Trinidad (n = 150) and Tobago (n = 200) about tsunamis Questionnaire variable
Trinidad No.
Tobago Percentage (%)
No.
Percentage (%)
How likely do you think it is for a tsunami to hit Trinidad and Tobago in the next 10 years?a Very
54
37.0
31
16.0
Somewhat
34
23.3
64
33.0
Not very
35
24.0
56
28.9
Not at all
23
15.8
43
22.2
Do you think you will ever be at risk from a tsunami hazard? Yes
120
80.0
153
76.5
Maybe
12
8.0
20
10.0
No
18
12.0
27
13.5
If a tsunami were to hit Trinidad and Tobago, whose actions would be most likely to prevent loss of life?b God
75
51.0
121
61.7
Government
22
15.0
26
13.3
2
1.4
3
1.5
48
32.7
46
23.5
NGOs Individuals
‘In the event of a tsunami in Trinidad and Tobago, coastal communities and beachgoers will have enough time to self-evacuate from coastal areas’. To what extent to you agree/disagree?c Strongly agree
15
10.1
10
5.1
Agree
25
16.9
38
19.2
Neutral
33
22.3
43
21.7
Disagree
43
29.1
42
21.2
Strongly disagree
32
21.6
65
32.8
‘If a tsunami were to arrive in T&T, people would be inclined to remain at the coast to watch it rather than evacuate’. To what extent to you agree/disagree?a Strongly agree
27
18.0
27
13.6
Agree
28
18.7
27
13.6
Neutral
19
12.7
27
13.6
Disagree
38
25.3
41
20.6
Strongly disagree
38
25.3
77
38.7
‘If a tsunami warning were issued via the radio/television, Trinbagonians would be most likely to ignore the warning and remain near coastal areas’. To what extent do you agree/disagree? Strongly agree
36
24.0
28
14.0
Agree
36
24.0
29
14.5
Neutral
23
15.3
43
21.5
Disagree
30
20.0
48
24.0
Strongly disagree
25
16.7
52
26.0
‘A regional tsunami early warning system is important’. To what extent do you agree/disagree? Strongly agree
125
83.3
170
85.0
Agree
23
15.3
29
14.5
Neutral
1
0.7
1
0.5
Disagree
0
0.0
0
0.0
Strongly disagree
1
0.7
0
0.0
123
Author's personal copy 1362
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Table 3 continued Questionnaire variable
Trinidad
Tobago
No.
Percentage (%)
No.
Percentage (%)
‘Evacuation plans are important for coastal communities that are susceptible to tsunamis’. To what extent do you agree/disagree? Strongly agree
129
86.0
160
80.0
Agree
15
10.0
32
16.0
Neutral
3
2.0
5
2.5
Disagree
2
1.3
2
1.0
Strongly disagree
1
0.7
1
0.5
‘The local authorities are sufficiently prepared to respond to a tsunami threat in T&T’. To what extent do you agree/disagree? Strongly agree
14
9.3
20
10.0
Agree
21
14.0
18
9.0
Neutral
21
14.0
19
9.5
Disagree
29
19.3
49
24.5
Strongly disagree
65
43.3
94
a
b
47.0 c
n = 146 (Trinidad) and 194 (Tobago), n = 147 (Trinidad) and 196 (Tobago), n = 148 (Trinidad) and 198 (Tobago) a
n = 199 (Tobago)
Fig. 7 Interviewees responses regarding the entity most likely to prevent the loss of life Individuals 27%
NGOs 2%
God 57% Government 14%
interviewees also strongly agreed (Trinidad—86 %, Tobago—80 %) that evacuation plans were important for coastal communities that were susceptible to tsunamis. The general consensus from interviewees on both islands (Trinidad—62.6 %, Tobago—71.5 %) was that they disagreed that the local authorities were sufficiently prepared to respond to a tsunami threat in Trinidad and Tobago.
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1363
3.4 Practices of interviewees about tsunamis Table 4 provides information obtained regarding the practices of interviewees about tsunamis. The majority of interviewees (87 %) indicated that if they were to observe certain signs in the natural environment (receding shoreline, agitation of the water, strange animal movements, hear loud rumbling noises from the sea), they would most likely evacuate the coast immediately. There was a statistically significant difference between the responses of interviewees on both islands (v2 8.33, df 2, p 0.016). Overall, a higher percentage of Tobagonian (91.5 %) than of Trinidadian (81.3 %) interviewees indicated that they would evacuate the coast upon observing the listed signs. Of note, 13 % of all interviewees indicated that upon observing the listed signs, they would either ‘wait to see what happens’ or ‘do nothing’. When asked about what they would do upon experiencing an earthquake at the coast, the majority of interviewees (Trinidad—60.7 %, Tobago—72.4 %) indicated that they would evacuate immediately. However, 29 % of all interviewees (Trinidad—34.7 %, Tobago—25.1 %) indicated that they would most likely ‘wait to see what happens’ or ‘do nothing’ (Fig. 8). There was a statistically significant difference between the responses of interviewees on both islands regarding this practice (v2 6.123, df 2, p 0.047). When asked about what they would do if they were to experience an earthquake while on a fishing or pleasure boat, the majority of interviewees (Trinidad—67.8 %, Tobago— 76.9 %) indicated that they would head to the shore. Less than 25 % of interviewees on either island (Trinidad—21.9 %, Tobago—11.6 %) indicated that they would head for deeper waters. There was a statistically significant difference between the responses of interviewees on both islands regarding this practice (v2 7.865, df 3, p 0.049). Regarding the news, the majority of interviewees indicated that they either paid attention to the local news everyday (46 %) or at least 3 times per week (37 %). In Trinidad, the medium of the news used most frequently by the interviewees was television (62.1 %) followed by print (19.3 %), while in Tobago it was television (76.7 %) followed by radio (11.9 %). On both islands, the majority of interviewees (Trinidad—70.5 %, Tobago—63.8 %) indicated that if a tsunami warning were issued for Trinidad and Tobago, it would be very likely that they would hear the warning. The majority of interviewees (Trinidad—84 %, Tobago—78.9 %) also indicated that if a tsunami warning were issued for Trinidad and Tobago, they would ‘self-evacuate’. More than 85 % of all interviewees on both islands indicated that if a tsunami awareness workshop were to be hosted in their community, they would attend. At the point of conducting this study, the majority of all interviewees (93 %) indicated that their families did not have an emergency plan for a tsunami. There was a statistically significant difference between the responses of interviewees on the two islands (v2 19.998, df 1, p \ 0.001) as a higher percentage of Tobagonian (98 %) than of Trinidadian (85. 3 %) interviewees indicated that their families did not have an emergency plan for a tsunami.
4 Discussion The possession of basic tsunami awareness by coastal residents is critical in order to effectively enable these individuals to detect natural tsunami warning signs and act appropriately and independently prior to the arrival of a tsunami. Deficiencies in the knowledge of coastal residents about tsunamis will undoubtedly confer a disadvantage by
123
Author's personal copy 1364
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Table 4 Assessment of practices of interviewees in Trinidad (n = 150) and Tobago (n = 200) about tsunamis Questionnaire variable
Trinidad
Tobago
No.
No.
Percentage (%)
Percentage (%)
In the event of any of the following (receding shoreline, agitation of the water, hear loud rumbling noises from the sea, strange movements of animals), what will you be most likely to do? Evacuate immediately (leave and move to higher ground) Wait to see what happens Nothing
122
81.3
183
91.5
25
16.7
14
7.0
3
2.0
3
1.5
If you feel a strong earthquake (i.e. it lasts longer than 20 s and you are unable to remain standing) and you are at the coast, what will you most likely do?a Evacuate immediately
91
60.7
144
72.4
Wait to see what happens
52
34.7
50
25.1
7
4.7
5
2.5
Nothing
If you are on a fishing or pleasure boat and feel a strong earthquake (i.e. it lasts longer than 20 s and you are unable to remain standing), what will you be most likely to do?b Head for deeper waters
32
21.9
23
11.6
Head to the shore
99
67.8
153
76.9
Wait to see what happens
10
6.8
18
9.0
5
3.4
5
2.5
Nothing Do you pay attention to the local news? Yes (everyday)
69
46.0
93
46.5
Sometimes (at least 3 times per week)
57
38.0
71
35.5
Not very often (\3 times per week)
17
11.3
28
14.0
7
4.7
8
4.0
No What medium of news do you use most frequently?c Print (e.g. newspapers)
27
19.3
9
5.1
Radio
18
12.9
21
11.9
Television
87
62.1
135
76.7
8
5.7
11
6.3
Electronic (Internet)
If a tsunami warning were issued for Trinidad, using a scale of 1–4 (with 4 being very likely and 1 being not at all likely), how likely will it be that you will hear it?d Very Somewhat
105
70.5
127
63.8
28
18.8
44
22.1
Not very
8
5.4
15
7.5
Not at all
8
5.4
13
6.5
If a tsunami warning were issued for Trinidad, which of the following would you do?e Wait for the authorities
19
12.7
33
16.6
126
84.0
157
78.9
Remain at coast to view
3
2.0
6
3.0
Nothing
2
1.3
3
1.5
Self-evacuate (leave beach, move to higher ground)
If a tsunami awareness workshop were to be hosted in your community, will you attend? Yes
128
85.3
172
14
9.3
19
9.5
No
3
2.0
7
3.5
Not sure
5
3.3
2
1.0
Maybe
123
86.0
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1365
Table 4 continued Questionnaire variable
Trinidad
Tobago
No.
No.
Percentage (%)
Percentage (%)
Does your family have an emergency plan for a tsunami? Yes
22
14.7
4
2.0
No
128
85.3
196
98.0
a d
n = 199 (Tobago); b n = 146 (Trinidad) and 199 (Tobago); cn = 140 (Trinidad) and 176 (Tobago); n = 149 (Trinidad) and 199 (Tobago); e n = 199 (Tobago)
80.0 Percentage of Interviewees (%)
Trinidad
Tobago
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0
Evacuate immediately Wait to see what happens Nothing Response to experiencing a strong earthquake at the coast
Fig. 8 Responses of interviewees regarding the potential scenario of experiencing at earthquake at the coast
contributing to incorrect decision-making in the event of a tsunami. In the Caribbean, the estimated arrival time for a tsunami caused by local or regional sources is predicted to be short, i.e. less than 30 min to an hour (Lander et al. 2002; Harbitz et al. 2012). Consequently, upon observation of signs in the natural environment that usually foretell a tsunami’s arrival, coastal residents need to be able to take appropriate action, i.e. initiate selfevacuation and move to higher ground in order to prevent the loss of life (Lander et al. 2002). Having a public that is acutely aware of the natural signs of an impending tsunami is one of the factors that is critical to addressing the threat posed by tsunamis to Caribbean populations (von Hillebrandt-Andrade 2013). As a result of a lack of awareness of tsunami hazards, there was a lack of self-evacuations by Haitians following the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Fritz et al. 2013). In Haiti, there were three tsunami fatalities as well as reports of fishermen at Pedernales remaining at the coast to record the tsunami on their cellular phones (Fritz et al. 2013). By comparison, tsunami awareness amongst coastal residents in Chile prompted self-evacuation to higher ground following the February 2010 earthquake, which contributed to low causalities (Esteban et al. 2013). Furthermore, the ability of coastal residents to act independently, i.e. without waiting for instructions from local authorities, is also vital as warning systems may fail or not have sufficient time to communicate warnings. Such was the case in Haiti in 2010 where tsunami warnings issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) could not reach Haitian contact points as a
123
Author's personal copy 1366
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
result of an interruption in communications caused by the earthquake (Fritz et al. 2013). Tsunami waves ended up striking Haiti before official warnings had reached coastal residents (Fritz et al. 2013). By contrast, even though tsunami warning systems failed in 2010 in both Chile and the Mentawai Islands and official tsunami warnings were not issued by national authorities, there was still a high level of tsunami awareness amongst the locals that prompted self-evacuations and contributed to saving lives (Esteban et al. 2013). In instances where tsunami awareness and preparedness programmes are in existence, it is critical that the authorities responsible for such programmes intermittently evaluate their effectiveness. One of the ways in which the effectiveness of such programmes may be evaluated is by assessing the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of vulnerable coastal communities about tsunamis. Interviews with a subset of residents from vulnerable coastal communities in the Caribbean country of Trinidad and Tobago revealed that there was an overall lack of (1) awareness about tsunamis (i.e. knowledge of tsunamis-sources, natural signs used to foretell arrival, predicted arrival times and occurrence of past tsunamis in the Caribbean), (2) preparedness (i.e. non-possession of a tsunami emergency plan) and (3) awareness of past or ongoing tsunami/tsunami-related programmes in coastal communities (Tables 2, 4). Of the seven coastal communities that were targeted in this study, local authorities on both islands indicated that work had been conducted regarding tsunami awareness and preparedness (Table 5). Such work would have included (1) the delivery of multi-hazard presentations to coastal residents (of which tsunamis were one of the hazards that were discussed), (2) the posting of ‘Be Tsunami Smart’ signs on recreational beaches and (3) delivery of tsunami workshops to selected schools as part of ‘Earth Science’ week (Table 5). In spite of the work that has been conducted by local authorities in Trinidad and Tobago, it is apparent that there is still much to be done to raise tsunami awareness and preparedness in vulnerable communities across both islands. In order to boost tsunami awareness and preparedness in Trinidad and Tobago and other Caribbean islands, local authorities in each country should consider consolidating efforts and developing a national plan of action as it relates to this natural hazard. Under this plan, the following items as they relate to tsunami awareness and preparedness ought to be formalised: (1) goals to be achieved, (2) timeframe within which those goals are to be achieved, (3) agencies responsible for achieving the proposed goals, (4) detailed plans from the various agencies indicating how they intend to achieve identified goals and (5) a means of monitoring and evaluating implemented programmes. Within this national plan, an evaluation should be conducted regarding past/ongoing tsunami awareness and preparedness programmes and decisions should be taken regarding the expansion of existing programmes and the implementation of new programmes. In the development of each national plan, stakeholders from relevant agencies and the general public ought to be involved. The development of such plans at a national level is not a novel concept as they are in existence for countries outside the Caribbean Region, e.g. The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Programme (NTHMP) of the United States (Dengler 2005). At the regional level, one of the specific recommendations for authorities responsible for disaster management and risk reduction is promoting the inclusion of the topic of tsunamis on the primary and secondary schools syllabi. Presently, students of secondary school age in the Caribbean Region take examinations that are administered by the Caribbean Examinations Council. Currently, the topic of natural hazards is covered in the subject of Geography at both the CSEC and CAPE levels (CXC 2010, 2015). Although volcanoes, earthquakes and floods were specifically listed under this section in both syllabi, tsunamis were not (CXC 2010, 2015). Furthermore, to the authors’ knowledge, with the exception of Puerto Rico which has a specific Tsunami Curriculum that is used for grades
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1367
Table 5 Work conducted by local agencies regarding tsunami awareness and preparedness in specific coastal communities in Trinidad and Tobago Island
Sampling site
ODPM
Trinidad
Maracas
‘Be Tsunami Smart’ sign at Maracas Beach
Grand l’Anse
CORE Multi-hazard presentations (2014) ‘Be Tsunami Smart’ sign on a recreational bathing beach approximately 10 km away from community
Mayaro
CORE Multi-hazard presentations (2014) ‘Be Tsunami Smart’ signs at Bon Espoire, Beaumont, Church Road, Rabita Avenue, Indian Bay 3 Early warning points (EWPs) set up in Mayaro/Rio Claro Regional Corporation to provide residents with tsunami warning alerts
Tobago
TEMA
SRC
Geography students from Mayaro Secondary School hosted at SRC Headquarters for a Tsunami Ready Workshop (2009)
Plymouth Charlotteville
Roxborough
Speyside
Geoscience display and Student Workshop at Charlotteville Library (2014) ‘Dark Wave’ exercise (Tsunami drill) ‘Seismology in Schools’ Student Workshop (Speyside High School (2014)
* This table was compiled based on information provided from the ODPM, TEMA and SRC (personal communication)
K-6 and 7–12 (Puerto Rico Seismic Network 2015), the topic of natural hazards is not on the science syllabus in primary schools. At both the primary and secondary school level, the topic of tsunamis should be included on the relevant syllabi to ensure that students are informed about this specific natural hazard. The material produced by the SRC under the Public Awareness and Education Component of the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System project would therefore be immensely useful to teachers that need to cover the topic of tsunamis at both the primary and secondary school level in the Caribbean Region (SRC 2010). This specific recommendation about the inclusion of tsunamis as a topic to be taught in primary and secondary schools is supported by the findings from this study which showed that there was a statistically significant association between the interviewees’ level of education and their knowledge about tsunamis. Overall, interviewees who possessed a higher level of education were more knowledgeable about tsunamis (i.e. basic definition of the term, awareness that signs could be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival). One prominent example of this was that a higher percentage of interviewees in the younger age brackets
123
Author's personal copy 1368
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
(e.g. 75 % of 13- to 19-year-olds) as compared to those in the older age brackets (e.g. 43.4 % of those 60 years and over) were aware that signs in the natural environment could be used to foretell a tsunami’s arrival. At the secondary school level in Trinidad and Tobago, the topic of natural hazards is on the geography syllabus at both the CSEC and CAPE levels (CXC 2010, 2015). It is highly likely that tsunamis would have been discussed under the topic of natural hazards and thus this could explain why interviewees in the 13- to 19-year age bracket (secondary school age) were more knowledgeable about tsunamis as compared to the older interviewees who may not have been formally educated about such topics in school. Until the topic of tsunamis is integrated into the relevant syllabi at both the primary and secondary school levels in the Caribbean Region, tsunami presentations should also be made in all primary and secondary schools located in coastal communities. In 2009, the SRC hosted a Tsunami Ready Workshop for geography students of the Mayaro Secondary School in commemoration of Earth Science week (SRC 2010). Such workshops should not be ‘one-off’ events but instead should be ongoing with local agencies aiming to reach all schools in vulnerable coastal communities. At the national scale, the continued delivery of tsunami awareness and preparedness presentations to key stakeholders (e.g. fishermen, residents, business owners, community groups) in vulnerable coastal communities is recommended. As highlighted in Table 5, local authorities in Trinidad and Tobago would have in the past delivered such presentations to certain stakeholders in some coastal communities. Yet, 85 % of the interviewees in this study indicated that public education programmes about tsunamis had never been conducted in their community. This finding therefore indicates that there are still subsets of many coastal communities that need to be reached regarding tsunami awareness and preparedness. Ash et al. (2012) indicated that religious organisations and their networks could be targeted in order to reach a subset of the population that normally would not attend or listen to awareness and preparedness presentations. In this study, 86 % of the coastal residents interviewed indicated their willingness to attend a tsunami awareness workshop. In conjunction with the tsunami educational awareness presentations, there should be a continuance and an expansion of evacuation drills in coastal communities that may be vulnerable to tsunamis. Dark Wave/Dark Storm exercises which involve tsunami drills have in the past been conducted by both the ODPM (in Trinidad, March 2015) and TEMA (in Roxborough, Tobago, 2014) in selected communities across both islands. Such evacuation drills as evidenced by the case of the Mentawai Islands were shown to contribute to the preparedness of coastal residents for the 2010 tsunami (Esteban et al. 2013). At the national level, additional initiatives which local authorities should consider if they are currently not in place or expand if they are in existence are (1) the development of early warning systems for vulnerable coastal communities and (2) the use of the media in raising tsunami awareness and preparedness amongst coastal dwellers. The most susceptible coastal communities should have infrastructure in place that will facilitate early tsunami warnings. The ODPM in Trinidad is currently involved in a ‘Risk Reduction Management Centre’ project whose overall goal is to set up and maintain early warning points (EWPs) throughout the country. The pilot phase of this project involved the setting up of three EWPs which are capable of providing tsunami warning alerts to residents in the Mayaro/Rio Claro Regional Corporation. In Tobago, tsunami sirens are present in Canaan, Tobago so that once a tsunami warning is received, TEMA will be able to remotely sound the siren and issue a warning to the residents of that community. Such initiatives definitely merit expansion such that other vulnerable coastal communities may benefit from them. According to Esteban et al. (2013), although the development of warning systems and evacuation plans may make little sense in the short term, these efforts can reduce mortality
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1369
rates in the event of a tsunami. The broadcasting of short advertisements aimed at educating the public about tsunamis is something which local authorities may employ to increase tsunami awareness amongst locals. In this study, 70 % of the interviewees indicated that the medium of news they used most frequently was the television, thus making it a viable option for increasing educational awareness about tsunamis. Pararas-Carayannis (2014) indicated that the media can potentially play a critical role in increasing and maintaining tsunami awareness. In the past, local authorities involved in disaster management and preparedness have relied on the use of the media to promote specific programmes (e.g. Earth Science Week activities and Dark Storm). At the national level, one of the factors which can influence the success of awareness and preparedness initiatives is the attitude of coastal residents to geophysical hazards. This study found that the majority of coastal residents in the targeted communities across both islands possessed an attitude that was consistent with the popular saying and perception that ‘God is a Trini’. This perception implies that Trinidad and Tobago is immune to or will be spared from hazards that have ravaged other countries (ODPM 2014). Approximately 46 % of all the interviewees in this study thought there was a low likelihood that Trinidad and Tobago will be hit by a tsunami in the next 10 years (Table 3). One of the factors that may continue to perpetuate the ‘God is a Trini’ perception in relation to tsunamis is a lack of awareness. For example, since the majority of interviewees in this study were unaware of past local/regional tsunamis (Table 2), this lack of awareness may imbue them with a false sense of security as they may be of the view that Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean are ‘safe’ from tsunamis. Additionally, 57 % of all interviewees indicated that if a tsunami were to occur God will be the entity most likely to prevent the loss of life. Recently, Ash et al. (2012) assessed seismic hazard perception in Tobago and reported that a subset of interviewees held the view that ‘God is in control’ believing that they would be protected from the hazardous effects of earthquakes (Ash et al. 2012). It is therefore apparent that religious beliefs influence both the attitude and the risk perception of Trinbagonians. As such, it is critical that local authorities take this factor into account when implementing tsunami awareness and preparedness programmes. This present study on the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of coastal communities about tsunamis was the first of its kind to be conducted in the Caribbean Region. While the findings of this study are relevant to assessing the effectiveness of current tsunami awareness and preparedness programmes in Trinidad and Tobago, this study also provides an important foundation for future work in other Caribbean islands where authorities may wish to evaluate the effectiveness of existing tsunami awareness and preparedness initiatives. Some of the facets of this study which future investigators may improve upon are (1) sample size calculation, (2) sampling method and (3) collection of additional information through the questionnaires. The sample size in this study was calculated according to the formula proposed by Gumucio (2011). However, this specific formula did not take into account the total population size. In each of the communities in Trinidad and Tobago, the exact number of persons (i.e. fifty persons) was sampled even though each community potentially had a different population size living on land less than 10 metres in height. This therefore raises the issue of whether the number of persons sampled in each community was truly representative of the population living on land \10 min height. Although such data were difficult to obtain for Trinidad and Tobago, future studies should try to source such information and incorporate it in the sample size calculation. Furthermore, this study utilised convenience sampling for the collection of data in each of the communities. Interviewees were those who were available during the time that the sampling was conducted. Since questionnaires were administered during the
123
Author's personal copy 1370
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
week, this meant that this survey technique would have primarily excluded working persons in coastal communities and this could have impacted the data that were collected. Although the questionnaire utilised in this study is a useful starting point for future KAP studies on tsunamis in the Caribbean Region, the inclusion of additional questions may provide data which may provide further insight regarding the findings of future studies. Specifically, it is recommended that information regarding the employment status (e.g. employed in fisheries and disaster management) of interviewees is obtained as this factor may influence the interviewee’s knowledge, attitude and practices about tsunamis. For example, in this present study, one of the interviewees at Maracas (Trinidad) had been involved in disaster management at the Regional Corporation level in Trinidad, while the other from Charlotteville (Tobago) was employed with TEMA. Both individuals were well informed about tsunamis when compared to other interviewees who may not have held jobs in the field of disaster management. Furthermore, the collection of topographical data (i.e. the height of land on which the interviewee’s house was located) could be integrated into such a study as such information may potentially influence knowledge, attitude and practices regarding tsunamis. It may be that the responses of persons with greater visibility of the sea may be different from those whose visibility is impeded by coastal infrastructure/natural features. Furthermore, interviewees should also be questioned regarding the source/s from which information about tsunamis was obtained. Such information may be particularly useful for agencies that are responsible for disaster management in the country. Tsunami awareness and preparedness should be an important area of focus for disaster reduction efforts in Trinidad and Tobago and by extension other Caribbean countries. Although the frequency of tsunamis occurring in the Caribbean is not as high as in other parts of the world, these hazards have occurred in this region in the past and may potentially occur again in the future. Knowledge, attitude and practises (KAP) studies can be useful tools in the evaluation of existing tsunami awareness and preparedness initiatives in Caribbean countries.
5 Conclusion This study provided the first assessment of the knowledge, attitude and practices of a subset of coastal residents in Trinidad and Tobago about tsunamis. Based on interviews conducted with coastal residents in vulnerable coastal communities in both islands, this study revealed that there was an overall lack of (1) awareness about tsunamis (i.e. knowledge of tsunamissources, natural signs used to foretell arrival, predicted arrival times and occurrence of past tsunamis in the Caribbean), (2) preparedness (i.e. non-possession of tsunami emergency plans) and (3) awareness of past or ongoing tsunami/tsunami-related programmes in coastal communities. The majority of coastal residents possessed an attitude that was consistent with the popular ‘God is a Trini’ mentality. Local authorities in Trinidad and Tobago should use the findings from this KAP study to evaluate the effectiveness of past/ ongoing tsunami awareness and preparedness initiatives and make determinations about whether certain initiatives ought to be expanded and new ones implemented. Overall, the following recommendations were proposed (1) the development of a national plan of action regarding tsunami awareness and preparedness, (2) the inclusion of the topic of tsunamis on the relevant syllabi at the primary and secondary school level, (3) the continued delivery of tsunami awareness and preparedness presentations and tsunami evacuation drill exercises to key stakeholders in vulnerable coastal communities, (4) the installation of early warning points in vulnerable coastal communities and (5) the use of
123
Author's personal copy Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
1371
KAP studies as a tool in evaluating the effectiveness of past/ongoing tsunami awareness and preparedness initiatives. Acknowledgments This study was unfunded and was possible as a result of the efforts of volunteers. The corresponding author would like to acknowledge the following persons for their invaluable assistance with this study: Hamish Asmath, Bhardoe Kanhai, Kishore Boodram, Shamirah Hosein, Ish Bissun, Jeniece Germain, Sherazade Ali, Kewley Khalawan-Kanhai, Kieara Kanhai, Neema Ramlogan. Compliance with ethical standards Conflict of Interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
References Ash C (2013) Seismic hazard perception: a case from Tobago in the Eastern Caribbean. The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Ash C, Shaw P, Robertson R (2012) Religious viewpoint as a factor in earthquake hazard perception in Tobago. Caribb Geogr 17(1 & 2):125–137 Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC) (2010) Caribbean advanced proficiency examination (CAPE) geography: effective for examinations from May/June 2010. Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC), Kingston Caribbean Examinations Council(CXC) (2015) CSEC Geography Syllabus 2007–2015. Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC), Kingston Central Statistical Office (CSO) (2012) Trinidad and Tobago 2011 population and housing census demographic report. Central Statistical Office, Port-of-Spain. https://guardian.co.tt/sites/default/files/story/ 2011_DemographicReport.pdf. Accessed 20 Feb 2015 Darsan J, Asmath H, Jehu A (2013) Flood-risk mapping for storm surge and tsunami at Cocos Bay (Manzanilla), Trinidad. J Coast Conserv 17:679–689. doi:10.1007/s11852-013-0276-x Dengler L (2005) The Role of education in the National tsunami hazard mitigation program. In: Bernard EN, Dengler L (eds) Developing tsunami-resilient communities. Springer, Netherlands, pp 141–153. doi:10.1007/1-4020-3607-8_9 Dondin F, Lebrun J-F, Kelfoun K, Fournier N, Randrianasolo A (2012) Sector collapse at Kick’em Jenny submarine volcano (Lesser Antilles): numerical simulation and landslide behaviour. Bull Volcanol 74:595–607. doi:10.1007/s00445-011-0554-0 Esteban M, Tsimopoulou V, Mikami T, Yun NY, Suppasri A, Shibayama T (2013) Recent tsunamis events and preparedness: development of tsunami awareness in Indonesia, Chile and Japan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 5:84–97. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.07.002 Esteban M, Thao ND, Takagi H, Valenzuela P, Tam TT, Trang DDT, Anh LT, Esteban NDTT (2014) 15— Storm surge and tsunami awareness and preparedness in central Vietnam. In: Thao ND, Takagi H, Esteban M (eds) Coastal disasters and climate change in Vietnam. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 321–326. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-800007-6.00015-0 Fritz H, Hillaire J, Moliere E, Wei Y, Mohammed F (2013) Twin tsunamis triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake. Pure Appl Geophys 170:1463–1474. doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0479-3 Gumucio S (2011) Data collection, quantitative methods: the KAP survey model (knowledge, attitude and practices). Medecins du Monde, Paris, France. http://www.medecinsdumonde.org/Publications/Guidesa-l-usage-des-professionnels-de-l-humanitaire/Collecte-de-donnees-methodes-quantitatives-l-exempledes-enquetes-CAP-connaissances-attitudes-pratiques. Accessed 20 Feb 2015 Harbitz CB et al (2012) Tsunami hazard in the Caribbean: regional exposure derived from credible worst case scenarios. Cont Shelf Res 38:1–23 Hariharan S, Jonnalagadda R, Walrond E, Moseley H (2006) Knowledge, attitudes and practice of healthcare ethics and law among doctors and nurses in Barbados. BMC Med Ethics 7:7. doi:10.1186/ 1472-6939-7-7 Heinrich P, Guibourg S, Mangeney A, Roche R (1999) Numerical modeling of a landslide-generated tsunami following a potential explosion of the Montserrat volcano. Phys Chem Earth Part A 24:163–168
123
Author's personal copy 1372
Nat Hazards (2016) 81:1349–1372
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) (2013) Tsunami Glossary 2013 Technical Series 85. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), Paris, France. http:// unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001882/188226E.pdf. Accessed 20 Feb 2015 Lander JF, Whiteside LS, Lockridge PA (2002) A brief history of tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea. Sci Tsunami Hazards 20:57–94 Lindell MK, Prater CS, Gregg CE, Apatu EJI, Huang S-K, Wu HC (2015) Households’ immediate responses to the 2009 American Samoa Earthquake and Tsunami. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 12:328–340 Lindsay J, Shepherd J, Wilson D (2005) Volcanic and scientific activity at Kick’em Jenny submarine volcano 2001–2002: implications for volcanic hazard in the southern Grenadines, Lesser Antilles. Nat Hazards 34(1):1–24. doi:10.1007/s11069-004-1566-2 Lopez-Venegas A, Horrillo J, Pampell-Manis A, Huerfano V, Mercado A (2015) Advanced tsunami numerical simulations and energy considerations by use of 3D-2D coupled models: the October 11, 1918, mona passage tsunami. Pure Appl Geophys 172(6):1679–1698. doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0988-3 Mohan ARM, Chadee DD (2011) Knowledge, attitudes and practices of Trinidadian households regarding leptospirosis and related matters. Int Health 3(2):131–137. doi:10.1016/j.inhe.2011.03.002 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2015) National geophysical data center/world data service (NGDC/WDS): global historical tsunami database. https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/ tsu_db.shtml. Accessed 29th Dec 2015 Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) (2014) Preliminary vulnerability assessment of Trinidad and Tobago. Office of disaster preparedness and management (ODPM), Tacarigua: Trinidad. http://www.odpm.gov.tt/sites/default/files/Preliminary%20Vulnerability%20Assessment%20of%20Tri nidad%20and%20Tobago%20Rmaharaj%202014_0.pdf. Accessed 2 Mar 2015 Pararas-Carayannis G (2004) Volcanic tsunami generating source mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Region. Sci Tsunami Hazards 22:74–114 Pararas-Carayannis G (2014) Mass media role in promotion of education, awareness and sustainable preparedness for tsunamis and other marine hazards. Sci Tsunami Hazards 33:70–85 Parimi N, Pereira LMP, Prabhakar P (2004) Caregivers’ practices, knowledge and beliefs of antibiotics in paediatric upper respiratory tract infections in Trinidad and Tobago: a cross-sectional study. BMC Fam Pract C7-28 5(1):1–8. doi:10.1186/1471-2296-5-28 Proenza XW, Maul GA (2010) Tsunami hazard and total risk in the Caribbean Basin. J Tsunami Soc Int 29(2):70–77 Puerto Rico Seismic Network (2015) Puerto rico seismic network tsunami program: educational material. University of Puerto Rico. http://redsismica.uprm.edu/English/tsunami/education.php. Accessed 7th Oct 2015 Rawlins S, Chen A, Rawlins J, Chadee D, Legall G (2007) A knowledge, attitude and practices study of the issues of climate change/variability impacts and public health in Trinidad and Tobago, and St Kitts and Nevis. West Indian Med J 56(2):115–121 Rotimi O, Oluwafemi O (2008) Knowledge and attitudes of students in an offshore Caribbean medical school towards HIV/AIDS. Retrovirology 7(Suppl 1):P138–P138. doi:10.1186/1742-4690-7-s1-p138 Seismic Research Centre (SRC) (2010) Annual report 2009–10. http://www.uwiseismic.com/Downloads/ Annual%20Report_Final_lowres.pdf. Accessed 20 Feb 2015 Smith M, Shepherd J (1993) Preliminary investigations of the tsunami hazard of Kick’em Jenny submarine volcano. Nat Hazards 7:257–277. doi:10.1007/bf00662650 Smith MS, Shepherd JB (1995) Potential cauchy-poisson waves generated by submarine eruptions of Kick’em Jenny volcano. Nat Hazards 11:75–94. doi:10.1007/bf00613311 Telford J, Cosgrave J (2006) Joint evaluation of the international response to the Indian Ocean tsunami: synthesis report. Tsunami evaluation coalition, London. http://www.in.undp.org/content/dam/india/ docs/joint_evaluation_of_the_international_response_to_the_indian_ocean_tsunami.pdf. Accessed 20 Feb 2015 The Economist (2011) Natural disasters: counting the cost. The economist. http://www.economist.com/ blogs/dailychart/2011/03/natural_disasters. Accessed 20 Feb 2015 Tinti S, Maramai A, Graziani L (2004) The new catalogue of italian tsunamis. Nat Hazards 33(3):439–465. doi:10.1023/b:nhaz.0000048469.51059.65 Vandamme E (2009) Concepts and challenges in the use of knowledge–attitude–practice surveys: Literature review. Department of Animal Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp von Hillebrandt-Andrade C (2013) Minimizing caribbean tsunami risk. Science 341(6149):966–968 Wei J, Hansen A, Zhang Y, Li H, Liu Q, Sun Y, Bi P (2014) Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: a survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China. Environ Res 134:301–308. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.006 Yun N-Y, Hamada M (2014) Evacuation behaviour and fatality during the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. Sci Tsunami Hazards 33(3):144–155
123
