Kondisi Energi Primer (Minyak dan Gas) Indonesia - Papirus UGM

KONDISI ENERGI PRIMER (MINYAK DAN GAS) INDONESIA Oleh: Eko Widianto VP EP Technology Center PT PERTAMINA (Persero)

Disampaikan pada: Pertemuan Nasional Forum Komunikasi Pendidikan Tinggi Teknik Elektro Indonesia 2007 Yogyakarta, 5 – 6 Desember 2007

CURRICULUM VITAE Name Place of Birth Marital Status Address

: Ir. Eko Widianto, MT : Semarang, 3 September 1955 : Married : Rancho Indah, Jl. Tanjung 19 / Blok G-21 Tanjung Barat, Jakarta Selatan 12530 Email : [email protected]

Academic Record : 1982 : S1 Geologi UGM 1999 : S2 Applied Geophysic ITB Work History 1982 – 1985 1986 – 1993 1993 – 1994 1994 – 1997 1998 – 2000 2000 – 2002 2002 – 2006 2006 – 2006 2006 – now

: : Pertamina Exploration Division Jakarta : Pertamina Exploration Department Plaju : Pertamina BPPKA Jakarta : Head of Exploration Planning Jakarta : Exploration Manager JOB Pertamina – Greka Energy : Chief Geophysic Pertamina Upstream Chairman of HAGI : GM JOB Pertamina-ConocoPhillips (Sakakemang) Ltd. : Head of New Venture Division Pertamina : VP EP Technology Center Pertamina

PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) PERTAMINA

Page 2

AGENDA • • • • •

PENDAHULUAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI MINYAK BUMI PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI GAS BUMI CADANGAN MIGAS NASIONAL KESIMPULAN

3

History of Oil & Gas Exploration in Indonesia Dutch Colonial – Law 8/1971 Era The history of Indonesia’s petroleum industry goes back to the Dutch colonialism era and was marked by the beginning of systematic oil exploration in 1865. The first well was drilled in 1871, and the first oil field discovery was made in 1885. Since the independence of Indonesia in 1945 and up to 1950, most oil fields had been discovered in East Java, South and Central Sumatra, and East Kalimantan. In 1966, Pertamina was established as a merger of several upstream and downstream Dutch oil companies. The new contract system (PSC) was first introduced in the same year. In 1971, a new law no 8 clarified Pertamina’s roles as an upstream and downstream operator, as well as contractors’ regulator. A 2001 law specified the deregulation of the country’s oil and gas industry PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) PERTAMINA

Page 4

REFORM PHILOSOPHY PREVIOUS

NEW REGULATOR

PERTAMINA (GOVERNMENT)

• REGULATOR • PLAYER 1971 - 2001 (LAW NO. 8/1971)

DOWNSTREAM

GOVERNMENT POLICY’S BOUNDARY

PLAYER SUPERVISOR

PERTAMINA & OTHERS

UPSTREAM

2001-RECENT (LAW NO. 22/2001) Heri Purnomo, 2006


Page 5

INDONESIA TOP 10 OIL and GAS PRODUCERS Ref PetroEnergy

Magazine No. 6 Year II Oct

– November 2005

Note : * PERTAMINA Production = PERTAMINA EP + Joint Company

CALTEX PACIFIC INDONESIA

452.63

TOTAL

2,679.00

PERTAMINA*

136.12

PERTAMINA*

1,107.00

CONOCOPHILLIPS LTD

92.80

EXXONMOBIL OIL INDONESIA

986.00

TOTAL

69

CONOCOPHILLIPS LTD

839.00

CNOOC(SES) BV

65.93

VICO

613.00

PETROCHINA INT’L IND.LTD

53.8

UNOCAL INDONESIA

191.00

MEDCO E&P INDONESIA

52.95

PREMIER OIL

151.00

UNOCAL

45.24

MEDCO E&P INDONESIA

115.64

25.70

KODECO

VICO BPINDONESIA

Oil, MBOPD

23.12

113.70

Gas, MMSCFD

PETROCHINA INT’L IND LTD

GEOTHERMAL WORLD INSTALLED CAPACITY 2.228 1.909 855 852 785 546 437 172.1 161.1 142.5

MW USA PHILLIPINE MEXICO INDONESIA ITALY JAPAN NEW ZEALAND ICELAND EL SALVADOR COSTA RICA

Ref International Geothermal Association, Nov 2005


Note : PERTAMINA EP Geothermal Electric Power Capacity : 162 MW

Page 6

82.68

Produksi dan Konsumsi Minyak bumi

7

REALISASI DAN PROYEKSI ENERGI PRIMER 9000

8000

7000

SBM/hari

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Minyak Bumi


Batubara

Gas

Tenaga Air

Panas Bumi Page 8

EBT Lainnya

24 20

22 20

20 20

18 20

16 20

14 20

12 20

10 20

08 20

06 20

04 20

02 20

00 20

98 19

96 19

94 19

92 19

19

90

0

INDONESIA: Oil production (bars) & consumption (dots) Thousands of barrels of oil per day

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1955

1960

1965

© Energyfiles Ltd

PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO)

1970

1975

1980 Year

1985

1990

1995

2000

INDONESIA: Oil production forecast to 2050

Thousands of barrels of oil per day

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1930

1940

1950

© Energyfiles Ltd


1960

1970

1980

1990 Year

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

REALISASI DAN PROYEKSI MINYAK BUMI (SKENARIO PESIMIS) 1800

1500

Ribu Barrel/hari

1200

900

600

300

0 1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Produksi Skenario Pesimis


2008

2011

2014

2017

Kebutuhan Domestik Page 11

2020

2023

Produksi dan Konsumsi Gas bumi

12


INDONESIAN DAN PROVENGAS OIL AND GAS RESERVESINDONESIA 1980 -2006 CADANGAN MINYAK TERBUKTI 3,500

12,000

3,000

10,000

2,500

8,000

2,000

6,000

1,500

4,000

1,000

TCF

MMBO

14,000

2,000

500 OIL (mmbo) GAS (TCF)

YEAR

Annual report OPEC 2006


06

05

20

04

20

03

20

02

20

01

20

00

20

99

20

98

19

97

19

96

19

95

19

94

19

93

19

92

19

91

19

90

19

89

19

88

19

87

19

86

19

85

19

84

19

83

19

82

19

19

19

19

81

0

80

0


PRODUKSI GAS ALAM INDONESIA NATURAL GAS OF INDONESIA (1980-2006 in MMSCF) (1980-2006) dalam MMSCFD 100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

Gross Production mmscf Marketed Production Flaring Reinjection Shrinkage

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 1980

1985

Annual report OPEC 2006


1990

1995

2000

2005

PEMANFAATAN VS PRODUKSI GAS BUMI (REALISASI DAN PRODUKSI) 14000

12000

M M S CFD

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 1990

1993

1996 Kontrak Ekspor Impor LNG

1999

2002

2005

Kontrak Domestik Produksi

2008

2011

2014

Tambahan Domestik Kemampuan Produksi

Catatan: Berdasarkan cadangan P1 dan P2 status saat ini PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) PERTAMINA

Page 17

2017

2020

Produksi CBM

2023




Cadangan dan Sumberdaya Migas Nasional


Page 21

INDONESIA TERTIARY SEDIMENTARY BASINS

SOUTH CHINA SEA PA CIF IC

SULAWESI SEA

eastern

400 KM

OC EA N

D IN N IA AN CE

O

BANDA SEA

western

UNDRILLED 22

TOTAL OF 60 BASINS DRILLED 38

OIL & GAS RESOURCES & RESERVES PRODUCING 15 NON PRODUCING 23

DISCOVERY 8 NON DISCOVERY 15

OIL

RESOURCES

GAS

(BBO)

(TCF)

84.47

384.27

8.88

133.37

RESERVES

Status : Jan 01, 1999


Page 22

INDONESIA OIL RESERVE NATUNA

ACEH 148.6

0.2

East Kalimantan

North Sumatra 111.0 Central Sumatra

39.5 2,398.1

IRIAN JAYA

582.3

92.1 10.2 682.7 500.4

West Java

162.9 East Java

OIL RESERVE 1P (MMSTB)


PROVEN : 4,728 MMSTB POTENTIAL : 5,024.6 MMSTB TOTAL : 9,746.4 MMSTB Page 23

DINAS STUDI EKS.& EVAL JIAN-BANG.

South Sumatra

INDONESIA NATURAL GAS RESERVE ACEH

NATUNA

3,896

52,080

East Kalimantan

North Sumatera 728

South Sumatera

IRIAN JAYA

31,814

3,22

14,782 3,654 14,260 5,190

DINAS STUDI EKS.& EVAL JIAN-BANG.

Central Sumatera

4,395

West Java East Java

NATURAL GAS 2P (BSCF) PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) PERTAMINA

1P : 91,170.2 BSCF 2P : 134,015.5 BSCF 3P : 178,128.8 BSCF Page 24

WILAYAH KERJA PT PERTAMINA (EP) OIL & GAS POTENTIAL Total: 4 BB0 & 35.5 TCFG

9672 535

349

6253

109 1476

8515

46

233

42

33

60

24

22

64

330 2141

72 108

958 2330 PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO)

Total Luas WK : 142.510 km2

65

: oil bubble-graph

1681

: gas bubble-graph

2466

2466 9314 65

: oil in MMbbls : gas in Bcu.ft : number of closure

Newton (2004) Awang H. Satyana - BPMIGAS


INDONESIAN ENERGY POTENTIAL 2007 RESOURCES

RESERVES

PRODUCTION

RESERVE/ PRODUCTION (YEAR)

86.9 billion barrel

9.1 billion barrel*)

365 million barrel

25

Gas

384.7 TSCF

187 TSCF

2.77 TSCF

68

Coal

90.5 billion ton

18.7 billion ton

170 million ton

110

CBM

453 TSCF

-

-

-

FOSSIL ENERGY

Oil


Kesimpulan

Secara nasional pemenuhan kebutuhan gas hingga 2011 akan terpenuhi. Reserve to Production Ratio untuk minyak adalah 25 tahun sedang untuk gas adalah 68 tahun. Dengan asumsi commercial success dari resources menjadi reserve adalah 46%, akan didapatkan tambahan reserve minyak sebesar 40 Billion Barrel dan gas sebesar 177 TCF. Tetap perlunya upaya peningkatan eksplorasi migas Indonesia untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi primer sesuai target mix energy Option pengalihan sebagian gas alam untuk ekspor menjadi untuk kebutuhan dalam negri layak dipertimbangkan. Perlunya pembangunan infrastruktur penyaluran gas bumi dari lapangan penghasil ke pasar. Proyek gas yang akan onstream sebaiknya tidak mengalami kelambatan


Terima kasih 29

TARGET OF ENERGY MIX (PRESIDENTIAL DECREE NO. 5 YEAR 2006)

Target of Energy Mix 2025 (3 million BOE)

CURRENT ENERGI MIX (1 million BOE) Hydro Power, 3.11%

National (Primary) Energy Mix Oil,

Geothermal, 1.32%

20%

Natural Gas, 28.57%

Biofuel, 5%

Gas, 30%

RE,17%

Geothermal, 5% Biomass, Nuclear, Hydro Solar Energy, Wind Power, 5%

Oil 51.66% Coal, 15.34%

Coal Liquefaction

Coal , 33%


2%

