Land cover change impacts on EURO-CORDEX ...

0 downloads 0 Views 2MB Size Report
Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Industrial Ecology Programme. Department of Energy and Process Engineering. Faculty of Engineering.
Industrial Ecology Programme Department of Energy and Process Engineering Faculty of Engineering

Land cover change impacts on EURO-CORDEX Industrial Ecology Programme climate by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) Department of Energy and Process Engineering simulations Faculty of Engineering Bo Huang Xiangping Hu, Merja Tölle, Francesco Cherubini [email protected] EGU Vienna, 2018.04.13 Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Forest changes impact on climate Deforestation

Afforestation + observation + model ▲ obs mean ▲ model mean

Regional

Global

(Perugini et al, 2017 ERL) Norwegian University of Science and Technology

2

Model and Simulations Model: COSMO-CLM4.8 Driven data: ERA-Interim Simulation period: 1981-2010 Horizontal resolution: 0.44° Simulations: control simulation (GLC2000) & deforestation (forest to bare land and forest to herbaceous vegetation) & afforestation (cropland to evergreen needle-leave forest and cropland to deciduous broad-leave forest)

FOR to BL and FOR to HV: 1527 grid cell changed CROP to ENF and CROP DBF: 1835 grid cell changed

Annual mean temperature changes FOR to BL

FOR to HV

Cooling Deforestation -0.06 & -0.13

CROP to ENF

Latitudinal pattern (50°N)

-0.20 & -0.36

CROP to DBF

Warming Afforestation

Longitudinal gradient (10°E) 0.15 & 0.25

0.13 & 0.24

℃ Norwegian University of Science and Technology

4

Annual mean precipitation changes FOR to BL

FOR to HV

Dry condition

Deforestation

CROP to ENF

CROP to DBF

Wet climate

Afforestation

mm day-1 Norwegian University of Science and Technology

5

Climate change at regional and local scale Regional

Local

FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF

Temperature

Precipitation

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

6

Seasonal climate changes Temperature

Precipitation

95th percentile mean + stddev mean

Regional

mean - stddev 5th percentile

Local

FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF Norwegian University of Science and Technology

7

Changes in surface heat flux on local scale Temperature

FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF

Latent heat (LH)

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Sensible heat (SH)

8

Changes in diurnal cycle of temperature Regional

Spring (MAM)

Local

FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF

Summer (JJA)

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

9

Changes in the frequency of hot days FOR to BL

CROP to ENF

FOR to HV

95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature (Tmax)

CROP to DBF

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

10

Circle correlation between variables Annual mean clt: total cloud cover tas: 2m temperature pr: total precipitation tasmin: minimum 2m tas

PCA2 (22%)

tasmax: maximum 2m tas evspsbl: surface evaporation

hurs: 2m relative humidity rsns: surface net downward shortwave radiation mrso: soil water content hfss: surface sensible heat flux hfls: surface latent heat flux PCA1 (63.6%) Norwegian University of Science and Technology

11

Circle correlation between variables in winter and summer Winter

PCA2 (18.7%)

PCA2 (31.5%)

Summer

PCA1 (40.4%)

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

PCA1 (67.1%) 12

Summary •

Annual mean cooling of -0.06 ± 0.09 °C for conversion to BL and -0.13 ± 0.08 °C to HV



Annual mean warming of 0.15 ± 0.09 °C and 0.13 ± 0.09 °C for conversion to ENF and DBF



Deforestation causes a dry condition and afforestation leads to a wet climate



From south to north, deforestation impacts on mean temperature change from positive to negative at around 50° latitude, and causes the strongest cooling in spring (> 2 °C at high latitudes) but warming in summer (> 1 °C in some locations), when it increases the average number of hot days



Afforestation leads to a major warming in winter (0.69 ± 0.22 °C at a local scale), where it reduces the frequency of cold temperature extremes

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

13

谢 谢

Thank You Norwegian University of Science and Technology

14