Industrial Ecology Programme Department of Energy and Process Engineering Faculty of Engineering
Land cover change impacts on EURO-CORDEX Industrial Ecology Programme climate by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) Department of Energy and Process Engineering simulations Faculty of Engineering Bo Huang Xiangping Hu, Merja Tölle, Francesco Cherubini
[email protected] EGU Vienna, 2018.04.13 Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Forest changes impact on climate Deforestation
Afforestation + observation + model ▲ obs mean ▲ model mean
Regional
Global
(Perugini et al, 2017 ERL) Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Model and Simulations Model: COSMO-CLM4.8 Driven data: ERA-Interim Simulation period: 1981-2010 Horizontal resolution: 0.44° Simulations: control simulation (GLC2000) & deforestation (forest to bare land and forest to herbaceous vegetation) & afforestation (cropland to evergreen needle-leave forest and cropland to deciduous broad-leave forest)
FOR to BL and FOR to HV: 1527 grid cell changed CROP to ENF and CROP DBF: 1835 grid cell changed
Annual mean temperature changes FOR to BL
FOR to HV
Cooling Deforestation -0.06 & -0.13
CROP to ENF
Latitudinal pattern (50°N)
-0.20 & -0.36
CROP to DBF
Warming Afforestation
Longitudinal gradient (10°E) 0.15 & 0.25
0.13 & 0.24
℃ Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Annual mean precipitation changes FOR to BL
FOR to HV
Dry condition
Deforestation
CROP to ENF
CROP to DBF
Wet climate
Afforestation
mm day-1 Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Climate change at regional and local scale Regional
Local
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF
Temperature
Precipitation
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Seasonal climate changes Temperature
Precipitation
95th percentile mean + stddev mean
Regional
mean - stddev 5th percentile
Local
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Changes in surface heat flux on local scale Temperature
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF
Latent heat (LH)
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Sensible heat (SH)
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Changes in diurnal cycle of temperature Regional
Spring (MAM)
Local
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF
Summer (JJA)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Changes in the frequency of hot days FOR to BL
CROP to ENF
FOR to HV
95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature (Tmax)
CROP to DBF
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Circle correlation between variables Annual mean clt: total cloud cover tas: 2m temperature pr: total precipitation tasmin: minimum 2m tas
PCA2 (22%)
tasmax: maximum 2m tas evspsbl: surface evaporation
hurs: 2m relative humidity rsns: surface net downward shortwave radiation mrso: soil water content hfss: surface sensible heat flux hfls: surface latent heat flux PCA1 (63.6%) Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Circle correlation between variables in winter and summer Winter
PCA2 (18.7%)
PCA2 (31.5%)
Summer
PCA1 (40.4%)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
PCA1 (67.1%) 12
Summary •
Annual mean cooling of -0.06 ± 0.09 °C for conversion to BL and -0.13 ± 0.08 °C to HV
•
Annual mean warming of 0.15 ± 0.09 °C and 0.13 ± 0.09 °C for conversion to ENF and DBF
•
Deforestation causes a dry condition and afforestation leads to a wet climate
•
From south to north, deforestation impacts on mean temperature change from positive to negative at around 50° latitude, and causes the strongest cooling in spring (> 2 °C at high latitudes) but warming in summer (> 1 °C in some locations), when it increases the average number of hot days
•
Afforestation leads to a major warming in winter (0.69 ± 0.22 °C at a local scale), where it reduces the frequency of cold temperature extremes
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谢 谢
Thank You Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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