Industrial Ecology Programme Department of Energy and Process Engineering Faculty of Engineering
Land cover change impacts on EURO-CORDEX Industrial Ecology Programme climate by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) Department of Energy and Process Engineering simulations Faculty of Engineering Bo Huang Xiangping Hu, Merja Tölle, Francesco Cherubini
[email protected] EGU Vienna, 2018.04.13 Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Forest changes impact on climate Deforestation
Afforestation + observation + model ▲ obs mean ▲ model mean
Regional
Global
(Perugini et al, 2017 ERL) Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Model and Simulations Model: COSMO-CLM4.8 Driven data: ERA-Interim Simulation period: 1981-2010 Horizontal resolution: 0.44° Simulations: control simulation (GLC2000) & deforestation (forest to bare land and forest to herbaceous vegetation) & afforestation (cropland to evergreen needle-leave forest and cropland to deciduous broad-leave forest)
FOR to BL and FOR to HV: 1527 grid cell changed CROP to ENF and CROP DBF: 1835 grid cell changed
Annual mean temperature changes FOR to BL
FOR to HV
Cooling Deforestation -0.06 & -0.13
CROP to ENF
Latitudinal pattern (50°N)
-0.20 & -0.36
CROP to DBF
Warming Afforestation
Longitudinal gradient (10°E) 0.15 & 0.25
0.13 & 0.24
℃ Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Annual mean precipitation changes FOR to BL
FOR to HV
Dry condition
Deforestation
CROP to ENF
CROP to DBF
Wet climate
Afforestation
mm day-1 Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Climate change at regional and local scale Regional
Local
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF
Temperature
Precipitation
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Seasonal climate changes Temperature
Precipitation
95th percentile mean + stddev mean
Regional
mean - stddev 5th percentile
Local
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Changes in surface heat flux on local scale Temperature
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF
Latent heat (LH)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Sensible heat (SH)
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Changes in diurnal cycle of temperature Regional
Spring (MAM)
Local
FOR to BL FOR to HV CROP to ENF CROP to DBF
Summer (JJA)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Changes in the frequency of hot days FOR to BL
CROP to ENF
FOR to HV
95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature (Tmax)
CROP to DBF
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Circle correlation between variables Annual mean clt: total cloud cover tas: 2m temperature pr: total precipitation tasmin: minimum 2m tas
PCA2 (22%)
tasmax: maximum 2m tas evspsbl: surface evaporation
hurs: 2m relative humidity rsns: surface net downward shortwave radiation mrso: soil water content hfss: surface sensible heat flux hfls: surface latent heat flux PCA1 (63.6%) Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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Circle correlation between variables in winter and summer Winter
PCA2 (18.7%)
PCA2 (31.5%)
Summer
PCA1 (40.4%)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
PCA1 (67.1%) 12
Summary •
Annual mean cooling of -0.06 ± 0.09 °C for conversion to BL and -0.13 ± 0.08 °C to HV
•
Annual mean warming of 0.15 ± 0.09 °C and 0.13 ± 0.09 °C for conversion to ENF and DBF
•
Deforestation causes a dry condition and afforestation leads to a wet climate
•
From south to north, deforestation impacts on mean temperature change from positive to negative at around 50° latitude, and causes the strongest cooling in spring (> 2 °C at high latitudes) but warming in summer (> 1 °C in some locations), when it increases the average number of hot days
•
Afforestation leads to a major warming in winter (0.69 ± 0.22 °C at a local scale), where it reduces the frequency of cold temperature extremes
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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谢 谢
Thank You Norwegian University of Science and Technology
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