Land Use Policies for Sustainable Development

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Land Use Policies for Sustainable Development

M2866 - McNEIL 9781849802925 PRINT.indd 1

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Land Use Policies for Sustainable Development

Exploring Integrated Assessment Approaches Edited by

Desmond McNeill Centre for Development and the Environment, University of Oslo, Norway

Ingrid Nesheim Centre for Development and the Environment, University of Oslo, Norway

Floor Brouwer Senior Research Scholar, Research Unit on Environment, Nature and Landscape, LEI (Wageningen University and Research Centre), The Hague, The Netherlands

Edward Elgar Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA


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© Desmond McNeill, Ingrid Nesheim and Floor Brouwer 2012 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Limited The Lypiatts 15 Lansdown Road Cheltenham Glos GL50 2JA UK Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. William Pratt House 9 Dewey Court Northampton Massachusetts 01060 USA

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Control Number: 2011939342

ISBN 978 1 84980 292 5 Typeset by Servis Filmsetting Ltd, Stockport, Cheshire Printed and bound by MPG Books Group, UK


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Contents vii xv

List of contributors Preface 1 Introduction Floor Brouwer, Ingrid Nesheim and Desmond McNeill

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PART I INTRODUCTION 2 Agriculture and sustainable development in developing countries in a changed global context Joachim von Braun

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3 Institutional context for sustainable development Desmond McNeill, René Verburg and Marcel Bursztyn

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4 Integrated assessment approach Pytrik Reidsma, Hannes König and Irina Bezlepkina

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PART II CASE STUDIES 5 Agricultural non-point source pollution in Taihu Lake Basin, China Shuyi Feng, Xiaoping Shi, Pytrik Reidsma, Xianlei Ma and Futian Qu 6 Land degradation in the arid Jeffara Region, Tunisia Mongi Sghaier, Abdeladhim Mohamed Arbi, Jean-Philippe Tonneau, Nadia Ounalli, Houcine Jeder and Muriel Bonin 7 Land degradation and irrigation practices in the Office du Niger, Mali Youssouf Cissé, Muriel Bonin, Ingrid Nesheim, Jean-Philippe Tonneau and René Verburg

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Land use policies for sustainable development

8 Pressure on land in the Yogyakarta Region, Indonesia Nina Novira, Syarifah Aini Dalimunthe, Nur Indah Sari Dewi, Triana Sefti Rahayu, Aditya Pandu Wicaksono, Hannes König and Johannes Schuler

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9 Land subdivision and degradation in Narok, Kenya Patrick Gicheru, Stella Nabwile Makokha, Le Chen, Louis N. Gachimbi and Jane W. Wamuongo

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10 Agrarian crisis and policy links: a framework for Karnataka, India Seema Purushothaman, Sheetal Patil and Sham Kashyap 11 Road development and deforestation in Amazonia, Brazil Saulo Rodrigues-Filho, Marcel Bursztyn, Diego Lindoso, Nathan Debortoli, Ingrid Nesheim and René Verburg

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PART III CONCLUSION 12 Lessons from a comparative analysis of case studies Ingrid Nesheim, Desmond McNeill, Irina Bezlepkina, Floor Brouwer, Youssouf Cissé, Shuyi Feng, Patrick Gicheru, Nina Novira, Seema Purushothaman, Saulo Redrigues-Filho and Mongi Sghaier

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13 Critical analysis of land use policies Muriel Bonin, Emilie Coudel, Youssouf Cissé, Shuyi Feng, Patrick Gicheru, Nina Novira, Nadia Ounalli, Seema Purushothaman, Saulo Rodrigues-Filho, Mongi Sghaier, Xiaoping Shi and Jean-Philippe Tonneau

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14 Conclusions and policy recommendations Floor Brouwer, Desmond McNeil and Ingrid Nesheim

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Index

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Contributors Abdeladhim Mohamed Arbi is a junior researcher at the Institute of Arid Regions (IRA) of Medenine. He is a PhD student in economics at the faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sfax, Tunisia. His research interest involves natural resource use and management, integrated impacts assessment of policies and climate change. Irina Bezlepkina is a researcher at LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), part of Wageningen UR, Netherlands with a PhD in Agricultural Economics from Wageningen University. Her background is in microeconomic modelling. She is currently a research partner and task leader in interdisciplinary EU projects on assessing responses of agricultural systems to (land use) policies. Her research interests range from microeconomic analysis of natural resource use to applying modelling methods in integrated impact assessments with focus on scaling issues and model linkages. Muriel Bonin is a researcher at the CIRAD (Agricultural Research for Development), Montpellier, France, in a joint research unit on territory, environment, remote sensing and spatial information (Tetis). She has a background in agronomy and a PhD in Geography. Her research topics focus on renewal of agricultural systems from territorialization of public action, integration/removal of multifunctionality and environmental services in agricultural policies. Floor Brouwer is Senior Research Scholar at the Environment, Nature and Landscape unit at LEI Wageningen UR, Netherlands, with a PhD in Economics. Research topics include options for greening the CAP (nationally and at EU level), and on the economics of different land managers in rural areas (agriculture, forest owners, nature organizations, provincial and local organizations). He has published widely, including a co-edited volume, Multifunctional Rural Land Management: Economics and Policies (Earthscan, 2009). In 2009 he served as a member of the Task Force on Public Goods from Private Land, chaired by Professor Allan Buckwell. Marcel Bursztyn is a social economist, MSc in Urban and Regional Planning, Doctor in Social and Economic Development and Doctor in Economics. He held the Giorgio Ruffolo Chair in Sustainability Science vii


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at Harvard University. He is a professor in the Center for Sustainable Development at the University of Brasília, Brazil, and has over 30 years’ experience, including extensive work in the design and evaluation of environmental projects in the Brazilian Amazon and northeast regions. His most recent book, as co-editor, is L’Amazonie, un Demi-siècle Après la Colonization (Editions Quae, 2010). Le Chen is a researcher at the Agricultural Economic Research Institute (LEI), part of Wageningen University and Research Centre, Netherlands. She has a PhD in Agricultural Economics with special focus on the agricultural market, policy evaluation, and household models in developing countries. She is also very interested in subjects related to impact assessment, natural resources (especially land), climate change, sustainable development, and China’s impact in Africa. Youssouf Cissé is a researcher at the Institute for Rural Economy (IER in Mali), with an MSc in Agricultural Economics from Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria (Farm Management and Production Economics) and from Michigan State University, Lansing, MI, USA (Foods and Agricultural Marketing). His PhD from the University of Bamako, Mali, focused on the economics of irrigated tree and forage productions in the Office du Niger. He has extensive experience with interdisciplinary research in a feasibility study of various rural development projects in Mali and in the sub-region of West Africa. He is currently a researcher at IER in the Subsector Economic Program, acting as the coordinator of several projects in Mali. Emilie Coudelis a junior researcher at CIRAD (Agricultural Research for Development), Montpellier, France. Her doctoral research in rural economics dealt with learning for territorial development, based on the example of Farmer University in Brazil. She spent two years in Brazil accompanying the farmers in their projects after they left the Farmer University. Using organizational learning theory, she analyses how these actors have become empowered to participate in territorial governance. She is currently working on environmental services delivered by small- scale farmers in the Amazon region. Syarifah Aini Dalimunthe is a researcher at the Department of Environmental Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. She has a background in coastal and watershed management and planning, and experience with interdisciplinary research projects. She is interested in research on land use change and land use conflict. She is currently involved in several livelihood programmes for disaster risk reduction.


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Nathan Debortoli is a PhD student at the Center for Sustainable Development in the University of Brasília and a researcher at the Climate Network (Rede Clima) in Brazil. He has an interdisciplinary background in climatology, geography, ecology and tourism management. Since 2007 he has been working in projects which encompass land use, sustainable development, public policies, and climate change modelling within the Amazon region. Nur Indah Sari Dewi is a researcher at the Department of Environmental Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Her background is in environmental science and soil sciences. She is very interested in environmental research, geomorphology and land use change. She is currently involved in disaster management projects. Shuyi Feng is a Professor at the College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, China. Feng received her PhD in Development Economics from Wageningen University. She has extensive experience with interdisciplinary research, and her research interests encompass rural institutions, rural factor markets and sustainable natural resource use and management. Feng has published in a variety of international and national peer-reviewed journals and books. Louis N. Gachimbi has an MSc in Land and Water Management from the University of Nairobi, Kenya. Gachimbi is currently a deputy in Kenya’s National Environment Management Authority. He was until January 2010 a principal scientist in Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI). He has participated in several national and regional natural resource management multidisciplinary projects with special focus on soil fertility research and agricultural development, particularly participatory land use analysis, sustainable land management and technology transfer. Gachimbi has published in a variety of international and national scientific journals and books. Patrick Gicheru is Centre Director of The National Agricultural Research Laboratories of Kenya Agricultural Research Institute and holds a PhD in Land and Water Management. He has extensive research experience in natural resource management focusing on sustainable land management and environmental impacts on agricultural land use spanning over 25 years. His current research focuses on land and water management, linking it with natural resource management and land use planning. Currently he is Chair (2011–2014) of the Sub-committee on Land Degradation in the International Union of Soil Science. Houcine Jeder is an economist and member of the Laboratory of Economy and Rural Society team of the Institute of Arid Regions of Medenine,


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Tunisia. His research focuses on the economics of natural resources and the environment. Jeder is also a member of the Tunisian team in the LUPIS project. Sham Kashyap is trained in computer science and agricultural economics and currently works for the Government of Karnataka, India, as Panchayat Development Officer. Kashyap previously worked at the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE) as a senior research associate. Hannes König is a scientist at the Leibniz Centre for Agriculture Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany, holding a Diploma in Forest Engineering and an MSc in Tropical Agriculture from the University of Göttingen, Germany. He is specialized in forest ecology and the socioeconomics of rural development, in particular in terms of impact assessment. His current research focuses on multifunctional land use and sustainability assessment. His PhD concerns developing and testing participatory impact assessment tools for a selected number of developing countries. Diego Lindoso is a biologist and has an MSc in Sustainable Development. He is a PhD student in sustainable development at the Center for Sustainable Development at the University of Brasília, Brazil. He is interested in subjects related to land use, land use change, integrated assessment systems and climate change. He is currently working with the vulnerability and adaptation of small farmers to climate change within Brazilian Amazon, cerrado (savanna shrublands) and semi-arid regions. Xianlei Ma is an Associate Professor at the College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, China. Ma received his PhD in Land Resource Management from Nanjing Agricultural University. He has extensive experience with interdisciplinary research, and his research interests involve rural land institutions, agricultural production and rural development. Ma has published in a variety of international and national journals and books. Desmond McNeill is a Professor, and former Director, at the Centre for Development and the Environment, University of Oslo, Norway. He is a political economist and leads the centre’s research area Governance for Sustainable Development. He has been engaged in the development field since 1969, including working as an adviser or consultant in over 15 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. His books include: The Contradictions of Foreign Aid (Croom Helm, 1981); Global Sustainable Development in the 21st Century (Edinburgh University Press, 2000);


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Development Issues in Global Governance: Public–Private Partnerships and Market Multilateralism (Routledge, 2007). Stella Nabwile Makokha is a researcher with the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya. She received her PhD from the University of Nairobi, Kenya, in 2006. Her work has focused around technology adoption, market access and policy issues. She has vast experience in formal household surveys and participatory rural appraisals, and has conducted research within multidisciplinary teams, looking at socio- economic issues in natural resource management. She has been invited by various national organizations as a consultant providing socio-economic input. Ingrid Nesheim is a researcher at the Centre for Development and the Environment, University of Oslo, Norway, with a PhD in Vegetation Ecology. Nesheim’s research interests involve natural resource use and management, stakeholder participation and impact assessments. She has extensive experience with interdisciplinary research in various research projects involving fieldwork from rural areas in the tropics; her perspective encompasses both environmental and social science. Nesheim has published in several international peer-reviewed journals and books. Nina Novira is a researcher in the Department of Environmental Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. With a background in physical geography, she has developed an interest in studies on environmental issues. She is experienced in various fields of research such as forestry, agriculture and urban ecology. Nadia Ounalli is a PhD student in Agricultural Economics at the Arid Land Institute, Médenine, Tunisia. Her research domain is in natural resource management and agricultural development policies, and she participates in socio-economic investigations addressing women’s issues. She is a member of the Laboratory of Economics and Rural Society team at the Institute of Arid Regions. Her PhD thesis concerns agricultural development policies in the arid zones of Tunisia. Sheetal Patil is a researcher with Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Bangalore, India, working in the Ecological Economics Unit. With formal training in engineering and computer applications, she has a current interest in research in agricultural sustainability and its drivers at micro level. Seema Purushothaman is a Fellow with the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Bangalore, India, with a doctorate in Forest Economics and Management. She works in the Land, Water


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and Livelihoods programme at ATREE. She has been in the field of ecological economics since 1990. The pharmaceutical value of tropical forests is among her early interests, followed by land use dynamics in forest peripheries and sustainability in production landscapes. Her current interests include framing agrarian and institutional theories around ecosystem services for and from socio-ecological landscapes. Futian Qu holds a PhD in Economics and is a Professor at Nanjing Agricultural University, China. He is the Head of the China Centre for Land Policy Research at Nanjing Agricultural University. His research covers land policy, sustainable land use and nature resource management. His research has been published in many professional journals, such as the China Economic Review, Land Use Policy and Agricultural Systems, and in Chinese journals. Triana Sefti Rahayu is a researcher at the Department of Environmental Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Indonesia. She has a background in watershed management and planning with experience in surface water management. She is also qualified in surface water quality. She is interested in urban water management. Pytrik Reidsma is a researcher at the Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Netherlands. She has a background in environmental sciences. She has expertise in analysis and assessment of impacts of climate change and adaptation in agricultural systems. She is currently working in interdisciplinary and international projects aiming at integrated assessment of impacts of policies, climate change, markets and technological development on land use and sustainable development, both in Europe and in developing countries. Saulo Rodrigues-Filho is a Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at the University of Brasília, Brazil, and has a PhD in Environmental Science from the University of Heidelberg (1999, Cum Laude), Germany. He has a Master’s in Geochemistry from Fluminense Federal University, Niteroi, Brazil (1993) and a background in geology from the State University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1986). He has extensive experience in coordinating interdisciplinary research projects. His research interests are related to land use change, indicators of sustainability and climate change. Johannes Schuler works as a research associate at the Institute of Socioeconomics, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), in Müncheberg, Germany, focusing on farm and resource economics. His research interests are on the economic and environmental


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effects of agro-environmental policies on farms and on a regional scale. He studied agricultural economics at the Christian Albrechts University in Kiel, Germany and fulfilled his PhD requirements at the Hohenheim University, Germany in 2008. Mongi Sghaier is Director of Research and a specialist in agricultural and natural resources and environmental economics at the Arid Land Institute, Médenine, Tunisia. He currently leads the institute’s research team: ‘Laboratory of Economics and Rural Society in arid regions LESOR’ and ‘the extension services’ in the Arid Land Institute, Médenine, Tunisia. He is taking part in several programmes and international projects in the field of natural resource management and local development, such as the European projects DESURVEY, LUPIS and DESIRE. He has worked as an expert for various national and international organizations including the FAO, GTZ and OSS. Xiaoping Shi holds a PhD in Development Economics and is a Professor at the College of Public Administration (College of Land Management) and research fellow in the China Centre for Land Policy Research of Nanjing Agricultural University, China. His research covers development economics and resource and environmental economics. He is involved in projects dealing with economic policy reforms, land degradation and sustainable land use in rural China, and he has worked on the impact of off-farm employment on sustainable land use in southeast China for several years. His research has been published in several professional journals. Jean-Philippe Tonneau is a Professor and senior researcher in agronomy and geography at CIRAD (Agricultural Research for Developing Countries), Montpellier, France. He is Director of the TETIS Research Unit on spatial information. His research includes agrarian systems, regional development and territorial governance. His recent work focuses on the participatory dimension and partnerships in innovation processes, and he has worked in arid areas in Africa and Brazil. He is currently a lecturer in the Department of Economics, Social Studies and Management at SupAgro Montpellier. René Verburg is a researcher at the Environment, Nature and Landscape unit at LEI Wageningen UR, Netherlands. He is an ecologist working on the interplay between natural science and economy on issues of climate change, nature and landscape management and greening of the CAP. He has published a variety of papers and reports on those issues and is currently involved at the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) on a nature outlook, where he carries out cost–benefit analyses and nature policy assessments.


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Joachim von Braun is an applied and agricultural economist. He is Director of the Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn University, Germany and Professor for Economic and Technological Change. His main research interests are in economic development and policy, food and nutrition security, trade, science and technology policy. He was Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) based in Washington, DC from 2002 to 2009. He serves on the boards of publishers of journals, as well as international advisory bodies of research and policy organizations. From 2000 to 2003 he was President of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE); he is a member of the Academy of North Rhine Westphalia, and Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences. Jane W. Wamuongo is a researcher at the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), Nairobi, Kenya. She is an agronomist by training, with a wealth of experience in soil and water management and plant nutrition. Currently she is the Assistant Director in charge of Natural Resource Management at KARI where she coordinates research in: integrated soil fertility management; soil and water management; land use planning; irrigation, drainage and management of problem soils; and environmental research including climate change issues. Aditya Pandu Wicaksono is a researcher in the Department of Environmental Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Wicaksono has a background in environmental science and he is interested in karst and carbon studies. Besides this, he is also involved in various research projects on groundwater, surface water, and disaster management.


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Preface This book highlights the need for integrated assessment tools for countries in the South, considering the long-term impacts of decisions taken today. The challenge of land use changes in response to changes in the policy environment – macro policy, agricultural and forest policy, environmental policy – is explored with a focus on developing countries. Detailed case studies in seven developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America are presented, making use of a common framework of analysis. The book is the product of a collaboration between a large number of researchers – from 11 countries in four continents, representing several different disciplines. The work presented in this volume has been (co-)funded by the LUPIS project (Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries) (February 2007 – March 2011), EU 6th Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration, Priority 1.1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems (European Commission, DG RTD, contract number 36955); we gratefully acknowledge this support. To edit the book has been a challenging, but very rewarding exercise. Two of the conclusions that we draw in the book, concerning how to undertake impact assessment studies, are also very relevant with regard to our experience in undertaking this study. First: in a study which draws on a range of disciplines, from both natural and social sciences, it is important that researchers work together over an extended period of time, in order to clarify and resolve differences in perspective and even terminology; mutual respect for, and understanding of, each other’s viewpoint is crucial. Second: a study such as this necessarily involves an iterative process, even till the last stage; the detailed research plan set out at the beginning has legitimately, indeed necessarily, been modified significantly in the process of carrying it out. We are confident that we speak on behalf of all those who have contributed when we say that we have learned a great deal from this exercise, and are happy to have this opportunity to share our findings. Desmond McNeill, Ingrid Nesheim and Floor Brouwer May, 2011

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1. Introduction Floor Brouwer, Ingrid Nesheim and Desmond McNeill UNDERSTANDING LAND USE POLICIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The urgency to enhance sustainable development (SD) in developing countries is at its peak: in many cases poverty levels are growing and food security is deteriorating; land conversions are uncontrolled; loss of biodiversity through land use change is high; pressure on forested areas is high; and land reforms are vital to sustain productivity, reduce food vulnerability, alleviate poverty and conserve forests. This urgency is expressed globally through various explicit commitments and interventions: notably the delineation (UN, 2000) and assessments (MEA, 2005) of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Research on the impact of land use policies on the sustainable development of developing countries is complex, and it is essential that we properly understand this. Land use policies are key to the achievement of the MDGs. As Vosti and Reardon (1997) state, policy makers in developing countries are faced with the need to pursue three challenging goals simultaneously. Agricultural production must grow to keep up with rapidly increasing populations; and increased crop production will have to come from higher yields, not more land under the plough. Poverty alleviation is essential, for poverty ruins livelihoods, increases food insecurity and undermines development, the environment and political stability. At the same time, our natural resource base must not be destroyed, but must be used in a more sustainable manner. The successful implementation of land use policies has in the past often been hampered by the fact that we simply do not know enough about their impact on sustainable development across developing countries. The aim of this book is to contribute to bridging this knowledge gap and in doing so to facilitate the successful design and implementation of land use policies. The potential role that land use policy could play in the sustainable development of developing countries has not 1


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always been based on assessments using environmental–economic– social variables collectively; thus its role is insufficiently understood (see related sustainable development discussions in Egunjobi, 1993; Kates et al., 2001; Birdsall et al., 2005; Mooney et al., 2005; Wood and Lenne, 2005). Generic and flexible tools and methods that can be applied to a range of conditions, covering diverse ecosystems and sectors in developing countries to perform policy impacts assessments are often inadequately developed. Although much work has looked at land use policies and sustainable development (such as Egunjobi, 1993; Shove et al., 1998; Smith et al., 2000; Nair, 2001; Evans, 2003; Niazi, 2003; Wood and Lenne, 2005), few tools have been developed that can be applied in a generic manner to understand the causal relations underlying land use policies and sustainable development. Methods for policy impact assessments that can be applied to a range of conditions covering diverse ecosystems and sectors in developing countries are often inadequately developed. Thorough theoretical and empirical research into the effects of land use policies on the sustainable development of developing countries is still very much needed if we are to ensure the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Research has focused on specific, and often single, issues, such as land reform, nutrient depletion, soil mining and conservation, reforestation, intensification, land management regimes, natural resource conservation, and so on, Broch-Due and Schroeder (2000); Pagiola (1996); Urama (2005)). There is still a great need for cross-national comparisons that assess the impact of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries as well as modelling tools that are tested in a range of conditions. The methodologies described in this book may be adapted to changing land use practices and priorities, which vary across developing nations. Policy makers often do not have sufficient access to scientific decision supporting tools that enable them to implement strategies with the aim of enhancing sustainable development. Land use policies are especially critical in the poorest countries in their efforts to achieve poverty reduction, and there are few cross-country assessments to learn from. An understanding based on such assessments is vital; for example, drawing attention to the importance of trade, which is often underestimated, questioning whether loss of biodiversity through choices in land use changes is associated with local livelihoods and markets, or demonstrating how intensification, which leads to soil mining, can favour resource- strong groups.


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Introduction 3

THE NEED TO ENHANCE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Mankind has experienced economic development in the last hundred years at a historically unparalleled rate. We produce more goods than were ever thought possible, and we continuously create new substances to further increase production, including synthetic pesticides and herbicides, while crops/ agro-biodiversity are manipulated to produce more and at greater speed. However, the consequences for ecosystem functioning are in several regions severe, due to population growth, agricultural intensification and expansion, sedentarization and conversion of forest land to agricultural land. The UNEP report (2010) informs us that the state of the environment has never been worse; 60 per cent of the world’s ecosystems are already degraded, and the capacity of many ecosystems to meet the growing demand for ecosystem services such as food and water is diminishing. The impact of economic growth on human well-being is mixed. Health and wealth have on average improved, but the benefits are unequally distributed, and further improvement may be limited by an insufficient supply of key ecosystem services (MEA, 2005). Currently 1.1 billion people survive on an income of less than USD1 per day, and 70 per cent of them live in rural areas where they are highly dependent on ecosystem services. Global agreements have been established to encourage trade, mitigate climate change, and promote equity in the use and conservation of biodiversity. It is in this context important to recognize that strong synergies exist between improving human well-being and environmental protection. Humankind benefits from a multitude of resources and processes that are supplied by natural ecosystems. Agriculture is the main economic basis in rural areas, and is strongly associated with natural resource use. Today, production capabilities of agricultural systems are undermined by soil erosion and salinization (as exemplified by case studies in this book). Degradation of soil and vegetation cover has negative effects on agricultural productivity since natural ecosystems regulate water, prevent soil erosion and support the pollination of crops. In some developing countries still up to 80 per cent of the population depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Eradication of extreme poverty and hunger depends on sustainable agriculture, fisheries and forestry, which in turn rely on ecosystem services such as soil fertility and water. Within the frames of the above commitments, land use changes in developing countries are considered critical to sustainable development; and land use policy (see Chapter 13 in this volume) is an important tool to control land use conversion. In order to address land use change, it


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is essential to understand the impact of land use policy on sustainable development. The selection of optimal policies requires a good understanding of the key driving forces in the area, including human activities such as immigration and agricultural intensification, and underlying factors, such as human population dynamics or economic growth that underpin the proximate causes and either operate at the local level or have an indirect impact from the national or global level. The institutional context determines whether the selected policies can be effectively and successfully implemented. To understand this complexity of interacting factors, a holistic and integrated approach is required, drawing on various disciplines and assessing the combined effects of socio-economic, environmental and institutional factors. Meeting the challenges facing sustainable development in developing countries requires a proper understanding of the linkages between rural development, poverty reduction (particularly food security and enhancing livelihood quality) and environmental management. The book presents arguments about why ex-ante analysis of land use policies for sustainable development in developing countries is urgently needed. Assessment procedures are provided, making use of a generic and flexible analytical framework (Chapter 4) that enables understanding of the effect of different land use policies on sustainable development. This analytical framework covers all the necessary steps in an ex-ante impact assessment – from problem identification to communication of assessment results. It has been applied in seven case study countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, differing considerably with regard to the economic, environmental and social dimensions. The first stage in the analysis described in the case study chapters is based on the Driving forces, Pressure, State, Impact and Responses (DPSIR) framework. This presents the trade-offs that exist between the three dimensions of SD: in many cases economic development on one side and environment and social equity on the other. These trade-offs, related to the potential or actual conflict between development and the environment, also appear as trade- offs between the interests of present and future generations. Selecting the appropriate policy option then requires making value trade-offs, based on the views of stakeholders and experts.

THE STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK Following the Introduction, Chapter 2 by von Braun explores the sustainability and advancement of agriculture in low-income countries in the context of current challenges: the global food and financial crises, climate


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Introduction 5

change, and increased competition for natural resources under population and economic growth pressures. It stresses the need for a comprehensive strategic initiative for technological and institutional innovations on a global scale and related investment action to support agriculture and sustainable development – led by an ethical approach and underpinned by the purpose of achieving sustainable livelihoods for all. Chapter 3, on institutions and sustainable development, clarifies some of the central concepts relevant to the book, and discusses potential trade- offs between sustainable development objectives: economic, social and environmental. The governance dimension of sustainable development is identified, with particular reference to land use, demonstrating the crucial part that this plays when it comes to translating desired objectives into policies and effective implementation. Chapter 4 presents the analytical framework adopted in the volume, showing how it draws on and combines the models developed in two previous major investigations adopted in Europe, supplemented where appropriate by other methods. The main emphasis is on the pre-modelling phase, but the modelling and post-modelling phases are also summarized. The challenge of modelling land use changes in response to changes in the policy environment – macro policy, agricultural and forest policy, environmental policy – is explored with a focus on developing countries. Part II presents the seven different case studies in the volume. In each case the chapters identify the central issue, the sustainable development problem in its environmental, economic and social dimensions. The interrelated causes of the situation are analysed by identifying key drivers and selected land use policies of particular relevance. Indicators are selected for the assessment of land use policies. Prioritized land use policies are discussed in relation to their potential impact. Chapter 5, the case study on Taihu Lake in China, exemplifies the conflict between two dimensions of sustainable development: economic development and conservation of the environment. Since the 1980s, the water in the major rivers running into Lake Taihu, and in the lake itself, has become seriously polluted, and the nitrogen and phosphorus eutrophication of water have become major environmental problems. This case study focuses especially on the agricultural sector and on policies to improve water quality in the lake and sustainable development more broadly. Chapter 6, the case study in Tunisia, concerns the complex interaction between socio-economic development and environmental degradation. Increasing human needs and agricultural development have led to very high pressures on the fragile natural resources of the basin. Land degradation is becoming increasingly serious due to increased sedentarization, land fragmentation and growth of the agricultural sector. The case


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study focuses primarily on two environmental policies: ‘Water and soil conservation strategies’, and the ‘Policy of saving water and incentives to irrigation’. Chapter 7, the case study in Mali, concerns the irrigation scheme, the ‘Office du Niger’, an irrigation scheme created for rice production. Droughts in the Sahel area and particularly in Mali have caused people to migrate to the Office du Niger. The increasing population has led to competition over land, deforestation and water pollution. Extension policies and privatization of land have been implemented by the government with the aim of enhancing food security. Policies to be assessed are related to the scarce natural resources and the coexistence of pastoralists and farmers in the area. The main problem to be addressed in Chapter 8’s case study of Indonesia, the province of Yogyakarta special region (DIY) is uncontrolled land use change from agriculture to non-agricultural use. The rapid urbanization and migration into the area have become threats to both the environmental and the social dimensions of sustainable development. The chapter discusses the feedback mechanisms behind this change in land use and addresses several related policies: planning policies, development policies and agricultural policies. Chapter 9, the case study in Kenya, is concerned with an increasing population leading to uneconomic land fragmentation and land degradation. Poor growth in the agricultural sector has been attributed to land degradation, increased droughts and floods, inadequate markets and marketing infrastructure. The main policy assessed is that concerning land tenure, whereby private land rights are protected at the expense of the customary land tenure holders. Chapter 10, the case study in India, covers selected districts in Northern Karnataka and illustrates how the social, or poverty, dimension of sustainable development interacts with the economic and environmental dimensions. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent years, and like many other parts of the country Karnataka has witnessed a commercialization of agriculture in terms of input application, choice of crops and marketing of products. The inherent risks involved in inputs for intensive commercial crops are high, especially for small-scale farmers. The chapter focuses on policies; for the commercialization of agriculture, and for land use conversion. Chapter 11, on Brazil, concerns deforestation in the Amazon region related to the paving of the full length of the 1780 km federal highway BR- 163, which crosses part of the states of Mato Grosso and Pará. The motivation for this investment is to promote economic development in rural areas, but it has major side-effects on biodiversity loss and CO2 emissions.


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Introduction 7

The demand for commodities as a driver of this development is discussed, along with the impact of weak governance in relation to conservation and sustainable use policies, colonization and land reform programmes, and infrastructure projects. Part III emphasizes comparative aspects of the case studies. Chapter 12’s comparison of case studies draws on the analysis in Part I and the case studies in Part II to identify similarities and differences in the seven case studies: do common factors emerge as determinants of the current situation, and what are the different value trade-offs taken when identifying policy options? Broadly, the points of comparison follow the different issues as included in the case studies. Chapter 13 presents a land use typology which distinguishes between types of policy (sectoral, integrated and so on), areas and means of intervention (market incentives, government regulation and so on) and levels of intervention (from local to international). Four predominant types are identified, and these are assessed in terms of their links to the various dimensions of sustainable development, likelihood of effective implementation and so forth. Chapter 14 concludes the book by presenting overall policy recommendations, and highlighting lessons learned from our experiences in these seven case studies. Emphasis is placed on the need for participatory approaches to ensure local knowledge and anchoring of initiatives, and of the need for an integrated and forward-looking approach to policy making to protect the environment and alleviate poverty in developing countries.

REFERENCES Birdsall, N., D.C.D. Rodrik and A. Subramanian (2005), ‘How to help poor countries’, Foreign Affairs, 84(4), 136–52. Broch-Due, V. and R.A. Schroeder (2000), Producing Nature and Poverty in Africa, Uppsala: Nordiska Afrikainstitutet. Egunjobi, L. (1993), ‘Issues in environmental management for sustainable development in Nigeria’, The Environmentalist, 13(1), 33–40. Evans, L.T. (2003), ‘Agricultural intensification and sustainability’, Outlook on Agriculture, 32, 83–9. Kates, R.W., W.C. Clark, R. Corell, J.M. Hall, C.C. Jaeger, I. Lowe, J.J. McCarthy, H.J. Schellnhuber, B. Bolin, N.M. Dickson, S. Faucheux, G.C. Gallopin, A. Gruebler, B. Huntley, J. Jäger, N.S. Jodha, R.E. Kasperson, A. Mabogunje, P. Matson, H. Mooney, B. Moore III, T. O’Riordan and U. Svedin (2001), ‘Sustainability science’, Science, 292, 641–2. MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) (2005), Ecosystems and Human Well- being: General Synthesis, Washington, DC: Island Press, accessed at www. maweb.org/en/index.aspx.


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Mooney, H., A. Cropper and W. Reid (2005), ‘Confronting the human dilemma. How can ecosystems provide sustainable services to benefit society?’, Nature, 434, 561–2. Nair, C.T.S. (2001), ‘Changing forest scenarios: some history and a few speculations’, Unasylva, 204, 3–11. Niazi, T. (2003), ‘Land tenure, land use and land degradation: a case for sustainable development in Pakistan’, The Journal of Environment & Development, 12, 275–94. Pagiola, S. (1996), ‘Price policy and returns to soil conservation in semi-arid Kenya’, Environmental and Resource Economics, 8(3), 225–71. Shove, E., L. Lutzenhiser, B. Hackett, S. Guy and H. Wilhite (1998), ‘Energy and social systems’, in Steve Rayner and Elizabeth Malone (eds), Human Choice and Climate Change, OH: Battelle Press, Columbus, pp. 291–327. Smith, C.S., G.T. McDonald and R.N. Thwaites (2000), ‘TIM: assessing the sustainability of agricultural land management’, Journal of Environmental Management, 60(4), 267–88. UN (2000), ‘Millennium Declaration (2000)’, resolution adopted by the General Assembly A ⁄ 55 ⁄ L.2, par. 11, accessed at www.un.org/millennium/declaration/ ares552e.htm. UNEP United Nations Environment Programme (2010), Dead Planet, Living Planet: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Restoration for Sustainable Development. A Rapid Response Assessment, Nairobi: UNEP. Urama, K.C. (2005), ‘Land-use intensification and environmental degradation: empirical evidence from irrigated and rain-fed farms in south-east Nigeria’, Journal of Environmental Management, 75(3), 199–217. Vosti, S.A. and T. Reardon (eds) (1997), Sustainability, Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: A Policy and Agroecological Perspective, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Wood, D. and J.M. Lenne (2005), ‘“Received Wisdom” in agricultural land use policy: 10 years on from Rio’, Land Use Policy, 22(2), 75–93.


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PART I

Introduction


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2. Agriculture and sustainable development in developing countries in a changed global context Joachim von Braun1 INTRODUCTION The sustainability and advancement of agriculture in low-income countries is hampered by the complex interaction of new and emerging challenges with old ones: the repeated global food crises and financial crises, climate change, and increased competition for natural resources under population and economic growth pressures. The threats to the world food system have severe implications for the food security and the livelihoods of the poor, not only in the short run, but also in the long run. Agricultural productivity growth supported by significant investments in research and development (R&D) is crucial for addressing these risk factors, enhancing food security, accelerating pro-poor growth, and building resiliency in developing countries. Public R&D investments, however, have been stagnating since the mid-1990s and the gap between rich and poor nations in generating new technology remains (Pardey et al., 2006). From 1992 to 2006, funding for the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), which is a major contributor to agricultural innovation in partnership with national research systems, increased by only 2 per cent per year (Von Braun et al., 2008b). The current resources are hardly enough to work at the frontiers of new science. The recent financial crunch has further constrained the availability of financial capital for agriculture in the developing world. Scientific advances in agricultural productivity are critical for providing sustainable pathways out of poverty for the still large number of poor and food-insecure people. Three-quarters of the poor in developing countries continue to live in rural areas and depend on agriculture-related activities, even though the urban share of poverty is increasing (Ravallion et al., 2007). Even before the recent food and financial crisis hit in 2007–08, roughly 160 million people were living in ultra poverty, on less than 50 11


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cents a day (Ahmed et al., 2007). The most severe deprivation has increasingly been concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, which has experienced a significant increase in the number of the ultra poor since 1990 and is currently home to three-quarters of the world’s ultra poor people. The number of undernourished people in developing countries as a whole has also been increasing, and the 2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)2 shows only a slight improvement in the overall world hunger situation since 1990, with wide differences among countries and regions (Von Grebmer et al., 2008). There is broad agreement now on the need for increased investments and supportive policies for pro-poor innovations in agricultural systems and science. There is also agreement that science alone cannot change the world food situation, but that institutional innovation and change must facilitate farmers’ profitable use of science and technology by reducing transaction costs and impediments to selling the increased production in better market conditions. A comprehensive strategic initiative for technological and institutional innovations on a global scale and related investment action is urgently needed to support agriculture and sustainable development. It should be led by an ethical approach and underpinned by the purpose of achieving sustainable livelihoods for all.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR WHOM? The productivity and sustainability of agriculture has been at risk as yield growth and overall productivity growth are too low for sustainable food security. Indeed, total factor productivity – derived from the ratio of total output growth to total input growth – in the developing world grew on average by 2.1 per cent per annum from 1992 to 2003; in some regions, the rate of growth was even lower (Von Braun et al., 2008b). Productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa recently started to recover, but it started from a relatively low base, and irrigated farming systems, which have on average two to three times higher yields than non-irrigated systems, remain scarce across the continent (Figure 2.1). At the same time, countries with the most worrisome hunger status and the highest 2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI) scores are predominantly located in sub-Saharan Africa, with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone at the bottom of the list (Figure 2.1). Increasing agricultural productivity and enhancing pro-poor development are key in overcoming the challenges facing the poor and food insecure. The importance of sustainability in the process of development is also often emphasized. However, perspectives on sustainability vary widely between and within developed and developing countries, mainly


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Agriculture and sustainable development in developing countries 13 Dominant farming systems

2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)

Irrigated

No data

Cereal based rainfed

< 10.0

Root-tuber based

10.0–19.9

Pastoral/agro-pastoral

20.0–29.9

Forest/tree crop

> 30.0

Note: In the 2008 GHI, scores above 30 signify ‘extremely alarming’ level of hunger, 20.0 to 29.9 ‘alarming’, 10.0 to 19.9 ‘serious’, and less than 10 ‘moderate or low’. For the 2008 GHI, data on the proportion of undernourished are for 2002–04, data on child mortality are for 2006, and data on child malnutrition are for the latest year in the period 2001–2006 for which data are available. Source: Von Braun (2009). Reproduced with permission from the International Food Policy Research Institute, www.ifpri.org. The figure, ‘Hunger in different agricultural systems’ can be found at http://www.conference-agsap.org/AgSAP%20keynotes/ Keynote%20AgSAP%20Von%20Braun.pdf.

Figure 2.1 Farming systems and hunger in Africa due to the different value placed on time, and on natural capital (such as environmental resources, biodiversity and biological systems) and man- made capital (such as physical products, human capital, social capital and institutions). Four different sustainability concepts can be distinguished: very strong (Deep ecologists); strong (Cautious ecologist); weak (Ecological touch); and very weak (Growth optimists) (Table 2.1). Ethical criteria are needed to identify islands of consensus among these different sustainability concepts and the actions they imply. Guidance by an ethical approach and the purpose of achieving sustainable human livelihoods for all must not be avoided. Externalities across agricultural systems and between rich and poor are a fact, and equity in agricultural systems remains key to reversing negative trends in poverty and hunger, and providing opportunities for broader economic development (Von Braun and Brown, 2003). Integrated scientific assessment of agricultural systems is an important tool for assisting the formulation of specific strategies for agricultural development in low-income countries. However, it is crucial that scientific advances and new evaluation methods recognize the diversity of farming systems and the diversity of views on sustainability.


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Table 2.1 Sustainability concepts and corresponding actions Very strong: Deep ecologists

Strong: Cautious ecologists

Weak: Ecological touch

Very weak: Growth optimists

Substitution between natural and man- made capital Discount rate (DR)

None

Very limited

Limited

Complete

#0

≈0

Actions required

Limit human activity

Conserve as much as possible

0 < DR < interest rate Set market incentives for conservation

0 < DR ≈ interest rate None

Source: Devised by author.

In formulating development strategies, it is also important that food production systems are not simply equated with agricultural systems. Today’s understanding of food systems should be much broader and encompass the whole value chain of food- and agriculture-related inputs and outputs, and include outcomes such as nutrition, health and safety. It should also take into account the process of globalization; in other words, the integration of the production and processing of agriculture and food items across national borders through markets, standardizations, regulations and technologies, which has made linkages from farm to table increasingly more complicated (Von Braun and Diaz-Bonilla, 2008).

COMPLEX PRESSURES ON THE WORLD FOOD SYSTEM The world food system is being transformed by a variety of often interrelated forces of change. The repeated surges in prices of food commodities resulted in a major food crisis that stemmed from rising demand for agricultural products due to factors such as income and population growth and expansion of subsidized biofuel production, and insufficient agricultural production response due to low investment in agriculture. The enveloping financial crisis and recession, decreased demand for agricultural products and let some air out of the commodity price bubble, but have increased the overall pressure on the world food system In response to high prices, poor households had to limit their food consumption, shift to even less-balanced diets, and spend less on other goods


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Agriculture and sustainable development in developing countries 15

and services that are essential for their health and welfare, such as clean water, sanitation, education and health care (Von Braun, 2008a). Food price hikes have also worsened micronutrient deficiencies, with negative consequences for people’s nutrition and health, such as impaired cognitive development, lower resistance to disease, and increased risks during childbirth for both mothers and children. According to preliminary estimates of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the number of undernourished people increased from 848 million to 963 million between 2002–05 and 2008, largely because of the food price crisis (FAO, 2008a). With food and general costs of living on the rise, people in more than 60 countries turned to the streets in protest in 2007 and 2008. The global financial crisis and recession have added to the burden on the poor as wages are lost. Given that children’s undernutrition affects their physical and cognitive development and has implications for their earnings as adults, the crises will have long-lasting negative implications for people’s economic prospects long after prices come down and the credit crunch is resolved. Underinvestment in agriculture, farmers’ limited access to inputs, natural resource constraints and weather disruptions, have hampered the size and the speed of the agricultural supply response to rising food prices in developing regions (Von Braun et al., 2008a). In fact, cereal production in developing countries excluding Brazil, China and India fell by 1.6 per cent between 2007 and 2008 (FAO, 2008b). Although high food prices provided incentives for policy makers, farmers and investors to boost agricultural productivity, the variability of prices was an obstacle to long- term planning. As the financial crisis and economic slowdown unfolded, decreasing demand for agricultural commodities pushed food prices to a lower level. Further, with limited and more expensive capital, broader plans for agricultural investments in low-income economies are cut short. If the constraints are not overcome quickly and investments in agriculture are not accelerated, the consequences could be more severe. IFPRI estimates that recession and reduced investment in agriculture would raise international grain prices by 30 per cent and push 16 million more children into malnutrition in 2020 compared with a scenario of continued high economic growth and maintained investments (Figure 2.2).

NATURAL RESOURCE THREATS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Population growth, industrial expansion, urbanization, and agriculture itself have led to resource degradation and overexploitation. Competition


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250

Maize price

Non-recession Same-investment Low-investment

150 100

Malnourished children

175

50 0

150

2005

2010

2015

2020

125

Million children

Price in US$/ton

200

Source: Von Braun (2008b). Reproduced with permission from the International Food Policy Research Institute, www.ifpri.org. The figure, ‘Recession scenarios with IMPACT model: recession scenarios with and without agricultural investment action’ can be found online at http://www.agritrade.org/events/documents/vonBraun_Salzburg.pdf.

Figure 2.2 Recession scenarios with and without agricultural investment action for land and water resources for agriculture has increased as a result of the food crisis, and declining capital for long-term investments has caused a revaluation of natural resources in some countries. Developed water sources are almost fully utilized in many countries, while agricultural demand for water is expected to increase significantly in the future (Global Economic Symposium (GES), 2008). In 2007 farmland prices jumped by 16 per cent in Brazil, by 31 per cent in Poland, and by 15 per cent in the Midwestern United States according to news reports. Although in end- 2008 farmland prices have fallen due to the global economic recession (such as by 4 per cent in Midwestern United States in the third quarter of 2008), constraints in capital that lead to overuse of both land and water have increased. Pressures on natural resources, combined with increasing distrust in the functioning of regional and global markets in the wake of the price crisis, have led to increased new forms of government-to-government foreign direct investment in agriculture. A number of countries, many with severe natural resource constraints but rich in capital, have turned to overseas investment in agriculture to secure domestic supply. According


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to news reports, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have invested in Sudan; India and Kuwait have invested in Myanmar; China has invested in Mozambique, the Philippines and Zimbabwe. These agreements help reduce underinvestment in agriculture, but recipient countries need to negotiate contracts wisely and establish an enforceable code of conduct, including rules about sustainable management of natural resources, engagement of local producers, and respect for customary property rights. Threats to agricultural productivity and output growth will rise in the future as climate variability and change increases temperatures and the risk of droughts and floods. Although rich countries are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, the impact of climate change is expected to be most severe in developing countries and on poor people. The threats of climate change are more severe in developing countries, partially due to geography. Many low-income countries are located in tropical and subtropical regions, which are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, and in semi-desert zones, which are threatened by decreasing water availability. By 2080, agricultural output in developing countries may decline by 20 per cent due to climate change, while output in industrial countries is expected to decrease by 6 per cent (Cline, 2007). Also due to climate change, yields in developing countries could further decrease by 15 per cent on average by 2080 (Fischer et al., 2005). Taking into account the effects of climate change, the number of undernourished people in sub- Saharan Africa may triple between 1990 and 2080. Climate change shocks also erode the long-term opportunities for human development and could exacerbate inequalities within countries. The higher vulnerability of developing countries and the poor is also due to limited adaptive capacities. Low-income communities depend directly on agriculture, forestry, fisheries, aquaculture, and climate- sensitive resources. They also have inadequate complementary services, such as health, education, and insurance services. The existing human, physical and institutional capacity in many developing countries is insufficient to evaluate and manage the emerging climate change risks. Poor communities and individuals often have no insurance coverage against extreme weather events, and the private sector insurance is little developed in developing countries. Poor and food-insecure people have often failed to receive the benefits of current climate change science. The ability of the poor to take advantage of climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies is also linked to their education, cultural practices, skills, and access to financial assets, as well as to the existence of supporting institutions and the relevance and applicability of technologies to their particular needs.


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STRATEGIC AGENDA FOR SCIENCE AND POLICY Solid scientific research and development has a crucial role to play in accelerating sustainable pro-poor agriculture growth in developing countries. Innovations in technology, however, need to go hand in hand with innovations in policies and institutions that can boost growth, cope with and recover from the world food crisis, and prevent similar crises in the future. Thus, the innovations needed for agriculture and sustainable growth in developing countries include innovations in: ●● ●● ●●

technologies along the whole agricultural value chain, the bio-economy; institutions, including laws, regulations, traditions, customs, beliefs, norms and organizations (including in research and extension); public policies for strategic directions change, incentives, and facilitation of institutional and technological innovations.

All of these innovations should be designed and implemented in synchrony, since each type has constraints and each complements the others. At the global level, a science and technology initiative is needed to respond to risks such as rising agricultural prices, economic recession, increased competition for natural resources, and climate change. Its agenda should focus on increasing agricultural productivity, but also include increasing small farm incomes, sustainability of agricultural practices, food quality and health, broad rural development, natural resources management, and international competitiveness. Priorities should be set with a clear focus on the poor and food insecure. For example, in the areas of agriculture, health and nutrition, focus should be placed on increasing lives saved and livelihoods improved, as well as economic productivity, growth, and returns on investment. In addition, the science and technology initiative would need to increase investments in R&D, explore new technologies, and strengthen partnerships. Increase Investments in R&D A significant increase in the level of current R&D investments is crucial, both at national and international level. At a time when the spillover effects of research from developed to developing countries have been decreasing, developing countries need to strengthen their own science systems with a focus on basic science, which is hard to buy from abroad. A recent study by IFPRI shows that doubling investments in public agricultural research from an estimated current US$5 to US$10 billion from


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2008 to 2013 would significantly increase agricultural output, and millions of people would emerge from poverty. If these R&D investments are targeted at the poor regions of the world – sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – overall agricultural output growth would increase by 1.1 percentage points a year and lift about 282 million people out of poverty by 2020 (von Braun et al., 2008a). International agricultural research projects with substantial payoffs for a large number of beneficiaries should be given priority. The centers of the CGIAR have identified examples of ‘best bets’ in agricultural research. These ‘best bets’ include programs to revitalize yield growth in intensive cereal systems in Asia, increase small-scale fish production, address threatening pests like virulent wheat rust, tackle cattle diseases such as East Coast Fever, breed maize that can be grown in drought-prone areas, and scale up biofortified food crops that are rich in micronutrients (Table 2.2). To reach the poor and contribute to sustainable development, increased investment in agricultural technology requires joint investments in areas such as rural education, infrastructure and extension services. Explore New Technologies The latest developments in science and technology offer vast opportunities for boosting agricultural productivity, enhancing food quality and nutritional value, and increasing environmental cleanness. Biofortification – the breeding of new varieties of staple crops that are rich in micronutrients – allows the poor to receive the necessary amounts of vitamin A, zinc and iron via their regular staple-food diets. Biofortification provides a means of reaching malnourished populations in relatively remote rural areas and delivering naturally fortified foods to people with limited access to commercially marketed fortified foods or supplements. New high-impact technologies such as nanotechnology and its applications, might allow people to eat foods without absorbing harmful allergens and cholesterol, and modify food taste and nutritional value. For such technologies, however, research efforts should be devoted to carefully studying both benefits and hazards early on in the application process. Strengthen Partnerships Examples of science and technology cooperation span the globe, but they need to be strengthened and broadened. For developing countries today, sharing of knowledge is even more important than transfer of financial capital, and national science systems should closely connect to international science and knowledge-sharing systems. In addition, different


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Table 2.2 Indicative ‘best bets’ for international agricultural research of the CGIAR

1 2 3 4

Goal

Approach

Increasing the productivity of crop and livestock systems

Revitalizing yield growth in the intensive cereal systems of Asia Ensuring productive and resilient small-scale fisheries Controlling wheat rust

Reducing vulnerability to biotic and abiotic stresses

5 6 7

8 9

10 11 12

Improving the nutritional quality of food Addressing climate change

Increasing the resilience of agro-ecosystems Improving soil fertility Increasing the efficiency of water use Improving genetic resource management Undertaking institutional innovation to improve market access


Developing a vaccine for East Coast Fever in cattle Developing drought- tolerant maize for Africa Scaling up biofortification

Cost (US$ Benefimillion) ciaries 150 73.5 37.5 10.5 100 125

More than 3 billion people 32 million people 2.9 billion people 32 million people 320 million people 672 million people

45

48 million people

127.5

1.2 billion people

55

400 million people

24

261 million people

Enhancing germplasm exchange

15

Global impact

Improving market information and value chains

10.5

45 million people

Increasing carbon sequestration and improving the livelihoods of forest people Conducting climate change and adaptation research Combining organic and inorganic nutrients for increased crop productivity Promoting sustainable groundwater use

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Table 2.2 (continued) Goal 13

Ensuring that agricultural production benefits the poor, especially women 14 Promoting agriculture–health linkages

Approach

Cost (US$ Benefimillion) ciaries

Including women in extension and innovation

30

200 million people

Exploiting agriculture– health links to benefit the poor

75

Global impact

Source: Von Braun et al. (2008b)

branches of science should work together and exploit their synergies in favor of the poor, and new approaches to scientific partnerships should be developed and expanded. Even though much pro-poor science remains in the public domain, partnerships with the private sector and foundations have expanded. Public–private partnerships offer potentially important opportunities for reducing the cost of research, promoting innovation and creativity, and enhancing the impact on marginalized groups (Spielman et al., 2007). Co-funding and cooperation among public institutions, foundations and private enterprises should play an important role in building and advancing the scientific base of developing countries. Sustainable agricultural systems require sound policies and institutions to accompany the proposed science and technology initiative. To build resiliency in the food system and ease the burden of the crises on poor people, a bailout package comprising three priority policy actions is needed: 1. promote agricultural growth; 2. reduce extreme market volatility; and 3. expand social protection and child nutrition action. In addition, innovations in institutions are crucial for smallholder farmers to lower transaction costs, manage risk, build social capital, enable collective action, and redress missing markets. Innovations include a comprehensive re-vitalization of agricultural extension and service systems in small farm agriculture, sound cooperative and contract farming arrangements that address economy-of-scale constraints, incentives for


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sustainable land and water management, innovative arrangements that include agriculture in climate change adaptation and mitigation regimes, and market and trade arrangements that facilitate fair and open trade. The adequate governance of these institutional arrangements at the national and global level poses a major challenge for reaching a sustainable food and agriculture system in the twenty-first century.

NOTES 1. This chapter draws from the paper ‘Agriculture and sustainable development in developing countries’, presented at the Conference ‘Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development’, Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands, 10 March 2009. 2. The GHI is a combined measure of three equally weighted components: (1) the proportion of undernourished as a percentage of the population; (2) the prevalence of underweight in children under the age of five; and (3) the under-five mortality rate. The 2008 GHI is based on data until 2006 – the last year with data available at the time of publication.

REFERENCES Ahmed, A., R. Hill, L. Smith, D. Wiesmann and T. Frankenberger (2007), ‘The world’s most deprived: characteristics and causes of extreme poverty and hunger’, International Food Policy Research Institute discussion paper, Washington, DC. Cline, W.R. (2007), Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country, Washington, DC: Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2008a), ‘Number of hungry people rises to 963 million’, Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations briefing paper, Rome, accessed at www.fao.org/ news/story/en/item/8836/. FAO (2008b), Food Outlook, Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Fischer, G., M. Shah, F. Tubiello and H. van Velthuizen (2005), ‘Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990– 2080’, Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society B, 360, 2067–83. Global Economic Symposium (GES) (2008), ‘The crisis of water management’, in Alessio J.G. Brown and Dennis J. Snower (eds) in cooperation with Romesh Vaitilingam, Global Economic Solutions, Schleswig-Holstein. Pardey, P.G., J.M. Alston and R.R. Piggott (eds) (2006), Agricultural R&D in the Developing World: Too Little, Too Late, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Ravallion, M., S. Chen and P. Sangraula (2007), ‘New evidence on the urbanization of global poverty’, World Bank policy research working paper series, 4199, Washington, DC.


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Spielman, D., F. Hartwich and K. van Grebmer (2007), ‘Sharing science, building bridges, and enhancing impact: public–private partnerships in the CGIAR’, International Food Policy Reserach Institute discussion paper, Washington, DC. Von Braun, J. (2008a), ‘Food and financial crises: implications for agriculture and the poor’, in Food Policy Report, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Von Braun, J. (2008b), ‘Food security under stress from price volatility, agricultural neglect, climate change and recession’, figure entitled ‘Recession scenarios with IMPACT model: recession scenarios with and without agricultural investment action’, presented at the IPC Spring Seminar, session: ‘Food security: competing claims on land and water’, Salzburg, 11 May 2009. Von Braun, J. (2009), ‘Agriculture and sustainable development in developing countries’, figure entitled ‘Hunger in different agricultural systems’, presented at the ‘integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development’, conference, Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands, 10 March 2009. Von Braun, J. and M.A. Brown (2003), ‘Ethical questions of equitable worldwide food production systems’, Plant Physiology, 133, 1–7. Von Braun, J. and E. Diaz-Bonilla (2008), ‘Globalization of agriculture and food: causes, consequences, and policy implications’, in J. von Braun and E. Diaz- Bonilla (eds), Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor, New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Von Braun, J., S. Fan, R. Meinzen-Dick, M.W. Rosegrant and A.N. Pratt (2008b), International Agricultural Research for Food Security, Poverty Reduction, and the Environment: What to Expect from Scaling up CGIAR Investments and “Best Bet” Programs, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Von Braun, J., A. Ahmed, K. Asenso-Okyere, S. Fan, A. Gulati, J. Hoddinott, R. Pandya-Lorch, M.W. Rosegrant, M. Ruel, M. Torero, T. von Rheenen and K. von Grebmer (2008a), High Food Prices: The What, Who, and How of Proposed Policy Actions, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Von Grebmer, K., H. Fritschel, B. Nestorova, T. Olofinbiyi, R. Pandya-Lorch and Y. Yohannes (2008), ‘Global hunger index: the challenge of hunger’, Bonn, Washington, DC and Dublin: Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, International Food Policy Research Institute, and concern.


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3. Institutional context for sustainable development Desmond McNeill, René Verburg and Marcel Bursztyn DEFINING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (SD) With the presentation of the Brundtland UN commission report ‘Our common future’ in 1987 (WCED, 1987) the issue of sustainable development was put on the political agenda. It was defined as ‘a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’. The concept has been much debated and criticized (Redclift, 1992) and numerous alternative definitions have been proposed (such as Robinson, 2002). (And it has been noted that this was not the first use of the term.) No consensus has been – or is likely to be – reached on any other definition; in part because for most people the concept is normative. What is clear is that the central issue is the potential, or actual, conflict between development and the environment, and hence between the interests of present and future generations (see Weaver and Rotmans, 2006). Ewert et al. (2006) have argued, with respect to the sustainability of agricultural systems, that the appropriate definition will depend on the specific problem to be analysed. Our particular concern in this book is the impact on sustainable development of alternative land use policies in developing countries. While we do not see it as necessary to propose an alternative to the WCED definition of SD, it is appropriate to clarify how we interpret it, as a basis for the analysis that follows. In the literature the term ‘sustainable’ is sometimes used to mean simply ‘capable of lasting over time’; as for example in the expression ‘sustainable institutions’. To avoid confusion, we will use the term ‘sustainable’ in a more restricted sense: relating specifically to the environment. Thus, in the expression ‘sustainable development’, ‘sustainable’ will refer only to the environmental dimension, and we will avoid referring to a system 24


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Institutional context for sustainable development 25

Economic objectives (growth, equity, efficiency)





Social objectives (empowerment, participation, social mobility, social cohesion, institutional development)









Ecological objectives (ecosystem integrity, carrying capacity, biodiversity, global issues)

Source: Adapted from Serageldin and Steer (1994)

Figure 3.1 Objectives of environmentally sustainable development as being economically, socially, or institutionally sustainable. And we propose to interpret ‘environmentally sustainable’ as avoiding the risk of radical ecosystem disruption, meaning somewhere between the extremes of ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability (see below). The term ‘development’ covers the economic and social dimensions, and this also is much debated. We propose an interpretation that focuses particularly on the elimination of poverty, of present and future generations. This brings us to a second issue, namely the various dimensions of sustainable development. Since the 1990s, it has been common to distinguish between three dimensions of sustainable development – economic, social and environmental – as summarized in the ESD triangle of the World Bank presented in Figure 3.1, or the definition used by OECD (2001) that sustainable development ‘embodies a concern for taking a broad view of what human welfare entails, and for balancing the goals of economic efficiency, social development and environmental protection’. The distinction between the social and the economic dimension may be interpreted in different ways. Some choose to include ‘equity’ under the former rather than the latter. We have chosen to follow this approach, which serves also to emphasize the issue of inequality, which is important in many countries in the South, including several of our case studies. We also argue, for reasons discussed below, for treating institutional issues


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Land use policies for sustainable development Institutional context

Economic objectives (growth, equity, efficiency)





Social objectives (empowerment, participation, social mobility, social cohesion, institutional development)









Ecological objectives (ecosystem integrity, carrying capacity, biodiversity, global issues)

Source: Adapted from Serageldin and Steer (1994)

Figure 3.2 Dimensions of sustainable development separately; not as merely one of several ‘social objectives’, but rather as a framing dimension, the overarching governance context in which these three dimensions are manifested. (And we use the term ‘environmental’ rather than ‘ecological’.) In summary, our framework is as shown in Figure 3.2.

TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES: WEAK AND STRONG SUSTAINABILITY Much of the debate, both theoretical and practical, concerning SD revolves around trade-offs between these three dimensions: economic, social and environmental. It is important, we suggest, to distinguish between what might be called ‘factual’ and ‘value’ trade-offs – although the distinction can sometimes be difficult to maintain in practice. An example of a factual trade-off – between environmental and economic objectives – is where money is saved at the cost of increased pollution. It is, in principle,


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possible to assess empirically the terms of this trade-off, that is, exactly how much it would cost to eliminate a specified level of pollution. Another example of a factual trade-off – this time between social and economic – is where efficiency is sacrificed in order to increase participation. It is more difficult to measure the terms of this trade-off exactly, but the important point is that in each of these two examples we are dealing with what is the case, and not a normative issue (of what some person or group believes should be the case). Analysing the former – the interplay between economic, social and environmental factors relating to a given ‘problem’ – can often be a very complex exercise. A detailed causal chain analysis (or DPSIR: drivers, pressures, state, impacts, responses) can be helpful for this purpose, not least because the causal links may to some extent go in both directions: for example, economic growth can be both a cause and an effect of the exploitation of non-renewable resources. In many cases such an analysis shows that in order to promote one objective, it is necessary to make some sacrifice with regard to another objective; the most obvious, and common, example is sacrificing an environmental objective in order to achieve an economic objective, at least in the short term. This issue is even more evident in developing countries, where immediate priorities often demand that the economic dimension prevails over the environmental and sometimes even over the social dimension.1 This then leads to the second issue, the value trade-off, which relates to what choice should be made in the light of these facts: whether, for example, an individual, or a country, should choose higher income at the expense of environmental or social benefits. Here one enters the realm of politics; but here also use can be made of tools to assist in decision-making, such as multi-criteria analysis, cost–benefit analysis, and various participatory methods. In some cases, the terms of the ‘factual’ trade-off are undisputed – even if they are difficult to establish with accuracy. In other cases even this is open to debate, and can be coloured by the values and interests of those making the judgement. This is manifest in the discussion between those advocating ‘strong’ and ‘weak’ sustainability, who disagree as to the extent to which it is possible to substitute between natural and man-made capital. Weak sustainability refers to the view that natural resources can – at least to some extent – be substituted by man-made resources. There has for some years been a heated ‘economic-environmental’ debate reflecting a range of different viewpoints concerning ‘weak’ versus ‘strong’ sustainability (see Pearce and Atkinson, 1995; Brekke, 1997). The former view, associated particularly with economists, has been criticized by others – for example Ayres et al. (1998) who assert that under this interpretation an economy can be perfectly sustainable while having devastating effects on


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the environment. ‘Strong’ sustainability challenges the substitutability of different types of capital (environmental, economic, and, according to some, social capital), and requires that minimum amounts of the former should be independently maintained. The various positions are well summarized in Table 2.1 presented in Chapter 2, by von Braun, who distinguishes four positions, ranging from deep ecologists, who apply a very strong interpretation of sustainability, to growth optimists, who apply a very weak interpretation. At one extreme, deep ecologists contend that natural capital, such as forests, cannot be substituted by man-made capital, and therefore advocate ‘strong’ sustainability. At the other extreme there are those who believe that natural capital can be substituted by man-made capital, and advocate ‘weak’ sustainability. Such substitution need not, of course, be in the literal sense – of man-made mountains, for example – but in the more utilitarian sense that the services that are provided can be substituted by others that give equal satisfaction. The debate on sustainable development rests, inter alia, on different visions about the limits of economic growth and the carrying capacity of the globe and its renewable and non-renewable natural resources. It is important to note that gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of a country’s economic well-being, does not take account of social equality or the environment. The relation between economic development and the environment has been described by some in terms of an environmental Kuznets curve (Grossmann and Krueger, 1991; Stern et al., 1996). It is postulated that there exists an inverted U-shaped relation between macroeconomic growth and environmental conditions (see Figure 3.3).2 According to this view, with increasing economic growth the environmental conditions initially deteriorate; but, beyond a certain point, subsequent economic growth can be used to counteract environmental degradation, so that environmental conditions improve again. In an example described by Stern et al. (1996), reducing SO2 emissions requires strong governmental intervention to set policy targets, but in this case, relatively simple techniques were available to reduce emissions. The result is a decreasing SO2 emission with growing GDP (see Figure 3.4). This optimistic view obviously has important policy implications. At the extreme it might be argued that economic growth can solve environmental problems in the long run, and should therefore take priority over environmental conservation. There are, however, critical arguments that this supposed relation between economic growth and the environment does not hold (Arrow et al., 1995); that the empirical evidence is weak and very sensitive to the econometric techniques that are used (Stern et al., 1996; Perman and Stern, 2003; Dinda, 2004; Galeottia


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Institutional context for sustainable development 29 Environmental degradation  Point of Inflection

             



Increasing degradation

GDP per capita

Decreasing degradation

Figure 3.3 The environmental Kuznets curve et al., 2006). It is certainly arguable that pollution is a very different type of environmental challenge than the use of non-renewable resources, or destruction of biodiversity, and that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis may be valid only for the former. Another criticism of the idea of the environmental Kuznets curve is that the improvement of environmental quality in rich nations may be associated not only with a greater degree of awareness, and changing pattern of demand, as incomes increase, but also the transfer (or externalizing) of costs from the centre to the periphery. On a global scale, flexibility in the allocation of resources and increasing interdependence of markets has facilitated a remarkable process of redistribution of economic activities between countries, leading in many cases to what is known as ‘ecological dumping’ (and also ‘social dumping’). The most obvious manifestation of this is the export of hazardous waste from rich to poor countries. A more subtle example is the import of logs from countries where deforestation is excessive, to rich countries where forest cover is stable or increasing. The overall environmental cost of economic growth is difficult to quantify. One common approach is ‘green accounting’. Another approach to measuring environmental impact is the ecological footprint. The ecological


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SO2 emissions per capita

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GDP per capita Source: Redrawn from Panayotou (1993)

Figure 3.4 An illustration of the relationship between SO2, emissions per capita and income per capita footprint, developed by Wackernagel and Rees (1996) is an account that expresses the environmental pressure of production and consumption on an area basis. Thus the footprint measures the area per person (measured in global hectares per capita) needed for production and consumption, the areas being aggregated at the country level (see Figure 3.5). Countries with high GDP also show a high footprint, since higher income leads to more consumption and therefore a higher area demand. As Figure 3.5 shows, the ecological footprint value tends to rise with increasing national income, eventually flattening out at higher levels. But these levels are well in excess of 1, implying that these richer countries must be externalizing some of the environmental costs they impose on the globe, as do many developed countries today. It is argued that increasing productivity can serve to decrease the footprint; but productivity increases may well be associated with increased pollution, which is not accounted for by the ecological footprint measure. For this reason, other measures are also needed. The environmental performance index (EPI) indicates the environmental quality of national economies. This index relates to various spatial scales. For example, at a local scale air pollution, water quality and local biodiversity are accounted for, while on a global scale it is national greenhouse gas emissions that are relevant. The EPI is a unit-less measure combining many indicators that


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Institutional context for sustainable development 31 10.0 9.0 8.0

Ecological footprint

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Africa Central Europe

1.0 0.0

0

10000

Asia Latin America

20000

30000

Middle East North America 40000

Pacific Western Europe 50000

60000

GDP per capita (US$ 2005)

Note: The ecological footprint is expressed as the global hectares per capita per country needed for production and consumption. Source: Data based on National Footprint Accounts 2008 edition: 26 October 2008 (The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2008).

Figure 3.5 The relation between the ecological footprint and GDP per capita of countries in US dollars. are roughly divided into a measure of environmental health and ecosystem vitality, each of which contribute 50 per cent to the final EPI measure. Although the list of indicators that address various aspects of health and vitality is quite substantial, most of them relate to the local level. Hence, global issues like greenhouse gas emissions have only a minor impact on the final EPI value. We see that the EPI values increase with the country’s GDP per capita (see Figure 3.6). In other words, rich countries show a larger, or ‘better’, environmental performance than poor countries. But this may be explained partly by the fact that rich countries have the money to pay for environmental damage and the institutions necessary to enforce the necessary policies, and partly by their capacity to transfer the costs to poorer countries. It is also instructive to disaggregate the summary EPI indicators so as to shed more light on the various aspects of the environmental dimension of sustainable development. In Figure 3.7, six environmental indicators in the EPI framework (Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, 2010) of the LUPIS case study countries are depicted.


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100 90 80 70

EPI

60 50 40 30 20 Africa Central Europe

10 0

0

10000

20000

Asia Latin America

30000

40000

Middle East North America

50000

Pacific Western Europe

60000

70000

80000

GDP per capita (US$ 2007)

Source: Data derived from Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy (2010)

Figure 3.6 The relation between the environmental performance index EPI and GDP per capita of countries based on 2010 data

500

Air pollution

Drinking water

Water for ecosystems

450

Agriculture

Biodiversity

Climate change

400

EPI scores

300

Indonesia

Kenya

350

Brazil

China

Tunisia

5083

7101

India

Mali

250 200 150 100 50 0

1022

1456

2600

3504

9145

GDP per capita

Source: Data derived from Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy (2010)

Figure 3.7 EPI scores for case study countries, ranked by GDP per capita PPP (2007)


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The indicators are air pollution (indoor and outdoor pollution); drinking water (access to water and sanitation); water for ecosystems (water stress, quality and scarcity); agriculture (agricultural water intensity, agricultural subsidies, pesticide regulation); biodiversity (biome, marine and critical habitat protection); and climate change (greenhouse gas emissions from land use, electricity and industry) in the seven LUPIS case study countries depicted against national GDP per capita. For Mali no data on air pollution are available (source: Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, 2010). The scores of the six categories range from 0–10 and are easy to interpret: a high score means that an EPI indicator scores well. Indicators relating to air and drinking water quality are closely, and positively, correlated with GDP, while greenhouse gas emissions, more global in their impact, show a negative trend with increasing GDP. The other EPI policy indicators are less well correlated with GDP, perhaps reflecting country-specific problems with environmental issues. Low scores for biodiversity are found in Mali and Tunisia, while agriculture scores low in India and Tunisia, and drinking water has low policy scores in Mali and Kenya. A very important component of the natural capital on which economic growth depends is the functioning of ecosystems. This depends on both their size and their quality; and compromising one or both reduces the capacity of ecosystems to function, and can have strong negative effects on economic development, most specifically in rural economies that rely on ecosystem processes. The challenge of discovering the empirical relationship between economic growth and the environment is complicated by the fact that some environmental change is not gradual, but sudden. Although it is very difficult to establish the thresholds at which such radical changes occur, their existence cannot be denied. (It might be argued that sudden radical change can occur in social terms; but there is certainly no way of forecasting any threshold in this case.) The question of radical change is closely related to that of irreversibility. Growing scientific evidence shows that changes in ecosystems can be irreversible. Many ecosystems respond in almost chaotic patterns to stresses, disturbances and other human interference. Based on mathematical equilibrium analysis, ecosystems can move from one stable state to the next with only a marginal increase of the stress variable (see Folke et al., 2002 for a review). These alternative stable states are very different and will push ecosystems to a completely new state. Examples are known in freshwater systems where the stable state of clear water is changed into a stable state with blue-green algae (for example Carpenter et al., 1999; Scheffer et al., 2001), in rangelands where the stable state with grass coverage is changed into a stable state


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of shrublands (Walker, 1993) or deserts (Rietkerk et al., 2004; Kéfi et al., 2007) and marine systems where a stable state with hard coral is succeeded by a stable state with fleshy algae (Nyström et al., 2000). Once such ecosystems are pushed from one stable state to another stable state they cannot revert back easily to the original state. Natural ecosystems provide an essential role regulating natural resources, such as water and nutrients. All too often the loss of natural ecosystems will lead to increasing soil degradation and water shortages, so that in the longer term the rural community may become poorer. With the Convention on Biological Diversity, opened for signatures at the UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, 1992, the issue of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) became more prominent on the agenda. Ecosystems play a crucial role in economic development since ecosystems regulate many natural processes and provide goods such as timber, fish and other, often non-marketable, products. In humid and productive areas the win–lose situation may alter into win–neutral situations with governmental interventions on ecosystem protection and conservation. In fragile and often arid environments the carrying capacity of the environment is low, and rural communities dependent on local resources may often slide into lose–lose situations. In such cases the resource depletion leads to further deterioration of the environment and communities fall into a poverty trap. The relation between poverty eradication and biodiversity has been the subject of research in recent years. The data for the LUPIS case study countries is depicted in Figure 3.8, suggesting a possible negative correlation; but in a much more comprehensive study (PBL, 2009), no clear statistical correlation was established. (The mean species abundance is a unit-less measure of biodiversity, developed by PBL. This measure indicates the ‘virgin’ state of ecosystems; a value of 1 indicates a fully- developed ecosystem state while values near to zero indicate highly disturbed areas.) It appears that we are here faced by two inconsistent conclusions regarding the relationship between economic growth and the environment, and the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The ecological footprint, of a country generally increases with increasing income, while the environmental performance index tends to improve. The crucial difference is that unlike the ecological footprint, the EPI does not take into account effects of foreign trade; that is why many rich countries have better EPI scores. Since the 1980s many rich countries, mostly in Western Europe, have shifted their heavy polluting industry to countries with low labour costs, mostly in Asia. The economies of these West European countries shifted later to service-related industry, which is less polluting. Thus the pollution effect of production has shifted to other countries that


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Regional mean species abundance

1

Brazil

0.8 Kenya

Tunisia

0.6

Indonesia Mali

India

0.4 China 0.2

0 80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

National poverty rate (%) Source: MSA data derived from specific PBL calculations on mean species abundance for the case study areas (unpublished data). National poverty rates are poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) ranging from 2000–2006 and derived from World Bank (http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do).

Figure 3.8 The relation between the regional mean species abundance (as a measure of biodiversity) and poverty in the case study countries are not accounted for in the EPI.3 Therefore both measures, the ecological footprint and the EPI, are needed to evaluate sustainable development. The analysis also underlines the importance of taking a global rather than a national view when assessing a country’s policies for sustainable development: both when it comes to identifying the causes of environmental problems and to recommending appropriate responses.

GOVERNANCE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The wide variation in the relationship between economic growth and the environment at national level is due partly to variations between countries


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in the terms of the ‘factual’ trade-offs that they face, and partly to variations in the terms of the ‘value’ trade-offs that they choose. With regard to the former, the factual trade-off: take, for example, the issue of water pollution from agriculture (exemplified by the China case study in this book). All countries encountering this problem will face a trade-off between the environmental costs of increased pollution and the economic costs of reducing it. And they may even, in principle, have access to much the same knowledge: the range of alternative measures that may be used to reduce pollution. But many contextual aspects will vary very significantly from country to country (and also within a country); not just the costs of alternative measures, but also the climatic and ecological conditions, people’s understanding of different practices, and so on. What makes the matter even more complex is that the positive and negative impacts in economic and environmental terms may be distributed very differently over time and across space. Typically, there are short-term benefits and long-term costs in giving priority to economic growth rather than the environment (unless effective policy instruments are adopted). And the scale and the geographical area over which impacts are experienced varies enormously: from the groundwater pollution caused by a pit latrine in a village in Africa to the impact of deforestation in Brazil on global warming. Thus the factual trade-offs very often impinge not on a unified group – the citizens of one country – but differentially on diverse groups, both within and outside the country concerned. With regard to the latter trade-off, concerning values, variations between countries may also be substantial – even at similar levels of GDP per capita. The extent to which the people of a country are willing, for example, to preserve their forests will depend not simply on their level of economic prosperity, but on their cultural values, which are a product of complex historical, social and even religious determinants. To illustrate, we may take the Indonesian case study as an example. Here the issue is the transformation of rich agricultural areas, especially paddy, into housing and other urban land uses. The factual trade-off is fairly clear; what stands to be gained and lost in economic, social and environmental terms by the various people concerned can be assessed with some degree of accuracy. But what choices should governments make in the light of this information? What policies should they adopt? Various techniques, such as stakeholder participation, may be used to identify the differing views of the various groups affected. But to determine what is the ‘best’ solution is a political issue – however much it can be informed by good information. (Some would claim that a technical-economic tool for decision-making, such as social cost–benefit analysis, provides the best basis for an ‘optimal’ decision from the point of view of society as a whole. But many would


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reject this, noting the limitations of the method when it comes to dealing with equity issues and the valuation of the environment. LUPIS, with its focus on land and its multiple functions, represents an attempt to devise an alternative methodology, less dominated by an economic perspective and more inclusive of stakeholders.) The focus in this chapter has been mainly on the relation (often conflictual) between economic growth and the environment; but the third dimension – the social – should not be forgotten. Here too one may distinguish between factual and value trade-offs. For example, ‘participation’ may be an aim which is seen as desirable; but it could, under certain circumstances, come at the expense of both economic and environmental benefits. (In the former case, if participation involved a long and costly procedure; in the latter, if such participation led to a decision that, was less favourable to the environment.) Certainly it is rare that policy makers face a ‘win–win–win situation’ when choosing a land use policy, however desirable this might be. And the willingness of people, or their governments, to trade off participation against economic or environmental dimensions also clearly varies very widely.4 In brief, the role of government in planning for sustainable development is two-fold: to obtain better knowledge of the complex interactions between economic, environmental and social factors; and to design policies to promote sustainable development – seeking to achieve an optimal combination of (largely conflicting) objectives. The purpose of the LUPIS study has been to assess the merits of analytical tools to assist in both these exercises. The detailed case studies clearly show how complex the first task can be – identifying the causal linkages between economic, social and environmental factors – at different levels from local to global. They also show how different groups, with differing perspectives and interests, can have differing views as to the relative importance of the three dimensions (and sub-categories) of sustainable development. For the latter reason, planning for sustainable development is an intensely political exercise, in which governance plays a crucial role. But a further challenge, in seeking to devise models for the assessment of alternative policies, is that there may be a large gap between policies on paper and policies in practice. Governments are often highly constrained when seeking to implement policies. Quite apart from limitations on their capacity (in the form of human and financial resources), a government may not be strong enough to resist powerful interests. A policy which is deemed optimal by the planners may well run counter to the interests of groups who are strong in economic or political terms. In Brazil, for example, environmental legislation is very strict, but weak law enforcement and corruption contribute to severe deforestation. Governance bottlenecks can be detected among


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governmental agencies; and there are evident conflicts between public policies: for example, providing energy and transportation, and settling peasants in a region can only encourage the advancement of the economic frontier towards the rainforest, even though environmental protection is also a clear governmental goal. Faced with this reality, it is the task of government to take difficult decisions; to balance the various concerns in the best interests of the country as a whole. (This should include also future generations, but where there is weak governance, their interests tend to be underrepresented.) There will necessarily be winners and losers, and policy-making here, as always, is a political exercise. Experts can provide valuable guidance, contributing empirical knowledge and high quality analysis. And these may include techniques specifically designed to assist in decision-making, such as social cost–benefit analysis. But expertise cannot wholly replace political process; and there are many who argue for a greater and more formalized participation of people in decision-making. The ideal, perhaps, is a combination of the two: deliberative democracy, wherein decisions are based on expert knowledge and analysis, but with very active involvement of the people. But in many countries, the current practice is far removed from this ideal; and the policies of government are far from optimal from a sustainable development point of view. Furthermore, the stated policies of government may not actually be put into practice. This may be because powerful groups within a country actively resist them, or simply for lack of the necessary resources, expertise or a favourable institutional environment. In several of the case studies in this book, this has proved to be a major issue. Policies exist on paper, and may seem to be very favourable from a sustainable development point of view; but in reality they have little impact. This brings us back to the crucial question of governance, and institutions, that was briefly referred to in the introduction to this chapter. The governance dimension of sustainable development not only plays a crucial part as one of the causal factors contributing to the current situation; but also as a constraint (and resource) when it comes to translating desired objectives into policies and effective implementation. The latter point constitutes an interesting methodological challenge, which merits some discussion. In planning for sustainable development, the importance of the institutional dimension is often underestimated. No matter how good a study may be – with regard to the data, analysis and recommended policies – the practical outcome for people and the environment will depend entirely on the willingness and ability of key actors, and most particularly the government, to implement the recommended policies. A major challenge in the


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study on which this book is based has been how best to take account of this in the impact assessment methodology. This is a challenge for all such exercises, but is one that is sometimes not adequately addressed. In recent years increasingly sophisticated models have been developed for assessing the likely effect of certain policies on land use, and on sustainable development more generally. These models are quite demanding in terms of quantitative data, and offer the promise of providing fairly accurate estimates of impacts on a variety of different factors: economic and social as well as environmental. But also in recent years, there has been increasing recognition of the need to take account of the institutional dimension in land-use planning models, especially in developing countries. But it is clear that this is no easy task. As noted above, we argue for treating institutional/governance issues as a fourth dimension of sustainable development, which cuts across (or transcends) the other three – the social, the environmental and the economic. It needs to be treated differently because there is not generally a trade-off of the institutional dimension against one or more of the other three;5 rather, the institutional factor acts as a constraint on the others – a sort of filter through which all policies (which integrate economic, social and environmental concerns) must pass in order to bring about the desired effect. We suggest that poor governance be seen as a sort of ‘dampening effect’ on policies; reducing their effectiveness. Thus when forecasting the impact of a proposed policy, one could contrast two alternative outcomes: one based on the assumption that the policy is fully and effectively implemented, the other on the assumption that governance is, say, only 50 per cent effective; as a result the actual outcome is less than was planned. (For example, water pollution is reduced as a result of a ban on certain pollutants, but the ban is not fully implemented, so that some degree of pollution remains.) Although this makes sense in principle, it still raises difficult questions: how do you measure governance effectiveness? And what precisely does it mean for governance to be only 50 per cent effective? (see below). An extremely comprehensive overview of attempts to ‘measure’ governance was undertaken by the SEAMLESS project, and we may draw on their report as summarized in Theesfeld et al. (2010) to demonstrate the methodological challenges that arise.6 The report summarizes a large number of different indicators. Three major challenges arise in seeking to apply them: 1. Does the indicator provide an accurate measure of the factor concerned? 2. If it is accurate, is the indicator indeed related to governance effectiveness (the willingness and ability of government to implement policies)


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– that is, does the indicator vary in a consistent manner with governance effectiveness? 3. Can the indicator be applied in a mathematically meaningful way – that is, to allow one to state that governance effectiveness is, say, 50 per cent? To exemplify these challenges, one may contrast two indicators – of social capital and of corruption – which are included in the SEAMLESS overview. The former is particularly problematic, the latter far less so; they thus illustrate a spectrum in terms of the difficulty of measuring governance. 1. Does the indicator provide an accurate measure? Social capital: This is highly contested in the literature. Even if a suitable definition of social capital is agreed, it is widely acknowledged that it is enormously difficult (many would say impossible) to identify suitable indicators. Corruption: It is very difficult to prove the accuracy of corruption indicators, such as those estimated by Transparency International, but since there is a good deal of consistency between estimates from different sources, perhaps the answer is affirmative. 2. Does the indicator vary in a consistent and meaningful manner with governance effectiveness? Social capital: It is far from clear that there is a monotonic relationship between social capital and governance effectiveness. And it is not even clear that the relationship is positive; for example, a tightly knit social group might be more likely to resist environmental planning regulations than one with less ‘social capital’. Corruption: Research does suggest that a high level of corruption will very often be associated with a low level of governance effectiveness. But the relationship will vary enormously according to the policy and the instrument concerned. 3. Can the indicator be applied in a mathematically meaningful way – that is to allow one to state that governance effectiveness is, say, 50 per cent? Social capital: Since criterion 2 is almost certainly not satisfied, this criterion is even less likely to be so. Corruption: Even if criterion 2 is satisfied, this criterion is surely not. In summary, for the purposes of a study such as LUPIS, indicators of general governance effectiveness are at best unreliable, and at worst useless. We suggest that what may be more useful are indicators that measure the


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effectiveness of government in implementing specific policies. The solution that we propose is thus to develop what we call ‘policy-specific governance indicators’: that is, indicators not of general government performance across all sectors, ministries and types of policy and policy instrument, but rather indicators of the actual performance of particular policies and instruments (or, if necessary, suitable proxies derived from similar policies and instruments). It may even be possible to estimate institutional indicators based on the three main types of instrument (as distinguished in Chapter 13): command and control instruments; economic instruments, such as taxes and subsidies; and behavioural instruments such as public information and education. Even this will not be easy; but it has the considerable merit that it should be possible to assess governance effectiveness on the basis of quite reliable, and even quantifiable, information. The importance of the governance dimension must not be ignored, if one is to make a practical contribution to improved methods of assessing the impact of land use policies on sustainable development; but it is evidently a major challenge to devise appropriate tools.

CONCLUSION In this chapter we have sought to clarify some of the central concepts relevant to this book; adapting the standard definition of sustainable development to our specific purpose, debating the merits of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, and examining the implications of ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability. We have discussed potential trade-offs between sustainable development objectives – economic, social and environmental – but have laid stress particularly on the importance of the institutional (governance) dimension, an aspect which is often given inadequate attention in studies of land use policies for sustainable development, but is crucial if one is to effectively link theory and practice, and contribute usefully to policy debate, especially in countries in the South.

NOTES 1. Lavielle (2004) calls this the ‘dictatorship of the urgency’. 2. The hypothesis (and indeed the name) in fact derives from a similar debate long before SD, concerning the trade-off between economic growth and equity. It was claimed (Kuznets, 1955) that as income levels in a country increase, they first become more and then less unequal. 3. This tendency provokes the ‘carbon leakage’ effect. See Kratena and Meyer (2009). 4. The extent of stakeholder participation relates closely to questions of legitimacy; where


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the institutional context is weak, policies that are implemented by government may not be regarded as legitimate. 5. One might argue that there is a ‘factual’ trade-off to the extent that institutional constraints are economic (that is, they can be overcome by increasing expenditure on this dimension). One might even argue that there can also be a ‘value’ trade-off, if, for example, a policy that leads to improvement in environmental terms is achieved by imposing laws that have negative consequences for people’s freedom; but we suggest that such consequences would be reflected in the social dimension. 6. A useful analysis of the problem is contained in Lehtonen (2004) based on his practical experience with OECD Environmental Performance Reviews, although he deals more with the environmental–social interface.

REFERENCES Arrow, K., B. Bolin, R. Costanza, P. Dasgupta, C. Folke, C.S. Holling, B.O. Jansson, S. Levin, K.G. Maler, C. Perrings and D. Pimentel (1995), ‘Economic- growth, carrying-capacity, and the environment’, Science, 268, 520–21. Ayres, R.U., J.C.J.M. van den Bergh and J.M. Gowdy (1998), ‘Viewpoint: weak versus strong sustainability’, Tinbergen Institute discussion papers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam. Brekke, K.A. (1997), Economic Growth and the Environment: On the Measurement of Income and Welfare, Cheltenham, UK and Lyme, NH, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. Carpenter, S.R., D. Ludwig and W.A. Brock (1999), ‘Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change’, Ecological Applications, 9, 751–71. Dinda, S. (2004), ‘Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. A survey’, Ecological Economics, 49, 431–55. Ewert, F., H. van Keulen, M. van Ittersum, K. Giller, P. Leffelaar and R. Roetter (2006), Multi-scale analysis and modelling of natural resource management options?, paper presented at the iEMSs conference ‘Summit on environmental modelling and software’, Burlington, VT. Folke, C., S. Carpenter, T. Elmqvist, L. Gunderson, C.S. Holling and B. Walker (2002), ‘Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations’, Ambio, 31, 437–40. Galeottia, M., A. Lanza and F. Pauli (2006), ‘Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: a robustness exercise’, Ecological Economics, 57, 152–63. Grossmann, G.M. and A.B. Krueger (1991), ‘Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement’, National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, Cambridge, MA. Kéfi, S., M. Rietkerk, C. Alados, Y. Pueyo, V.P. Papanastasis, A. ElAich and P.C. de Ruiter (2007), ‘Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems’, Nature, 449, 213–18. Kratena, K.E. and I. Meyer (2009), ‘CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian international trade’, FIW research reports, Vienna, accessed at http://ideas.repec.org/p/ wsr/ecbook/2010iii-002.html. Kuznets, S. (1955), ‘Economic growth and income inequality’, American Economic Review, 45, 1–28.


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Lavielle, J.M. (2004), Droit International de l’Environnement, Paris: Ellipses. Lehtonen, M. (2004), ‘The environmental–social interface of sustainable development capabilities, social capital, institutions’, Ecological Economics, 49(2), 199–214. Nyström, M., C. Folke and F. Moberg (2000), ‘Coral-reef disturbance and resilience in a human dominated environment’, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 15, 413–17. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2001), Sustainable Development: Critical Issues, Paris: OECD. Panayotou, T. (1993), ‘Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development’, International Labor Office Technology and Employment Programme, working paper 238, Geneva. PBL (2009), How do Biodiversity and Poverty Relate? – An Explorative Study, Bilthoven, Netherlands: Environmental Assessment Agency. Pearce, D.W. and G. Atkinson (1995), ‘Measuring sustainable development’, in D.W. Bromley (ed.), The Handbook of Environmental Economics, Oxford: Blackwell, pp. 166–81. Perman, R. and D.I. Stern (2003), ‘Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the environmental Kuznets curve does not exist’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 47, 325–47. Redclift, M. (1992), ‘The meaning of sustainable development’, Geoforum, 23(3), 395–403. Rietkerk, M., S.C. Dekker, P.C. de Ruiter and J. van de Koppel (2004), ‘Self- organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems’, Science, 305, 1926–9. Robinson, J. (2002), ‘Squaring the circle: on the very idea of sustainable development’, in W. Chesworth, M. Moss and V. Thomas (eds), Sustainable Development: Mandate or Mantra?, Guelph, ON: Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Guelph. Scheffer, M., S. Carpenter, J.A. Foley, C. Folke and B. Walker (2001), ‘Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems’, Nature, 413, 591–6. Serageldin, I. and A. Steer (eds) (1994), ‘Valuing the environment’, in proceedings of the First Annual International Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development, The World Bank, 30 September–1 October 1993, Washington, DC. Stern, D.I., M.S. Common, and E.B. Barbier (1996), ‘Economic growth and environmental degradation: the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development’, World Development, 24(7), 1151–60. Theesfeld, I., C. Schleyer, K. Hagedorn, J.M. Callois, O. Aznar and J. Alkan Olsson (2010), ‘The institutional dimension in policy assessment’, in F. Brouwer and M. van Ittersum (eds), Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessment, Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 37–59. Wackernagel, M. and W. Rees (1996), Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth, Gabriola Island, BC and Philadelphia, PA: New Society Publishers. Walker, B.H. (1993), ‘Rangeland ecology: understanding and managing change’, Ambio, 22, 80–87. Weaver, P.M. and J. Rotmans (2006), ‘Integrated sustainability assessment. What?


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Why? How?’, MATISSE working papers, 1, MATISSE EU 6th Framework Programme. World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy (2010), ‘2010 Environmental Performance Index’, accessed at http://epi.yale.edu/.


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4. Integrated assessment approach Pytrik Reidsma, Hannes König and Irina Bezlepkina INTRODUCTION As noted in Chapter 1, the objective of the LUPIS project (Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries) is to improve knowledge of the impact that different land use policy options will have on the sustainable development of developing countries. Seven case studies have been selected, each relating to a specific land use problem, and each problem requires targeted land use policies. In order to assess these consistently, a methodological framework for sustainability impact assessment (SIA) has been developed that allows ex-ante assessments including: (1) multiple land use sectors; (2) multiple dimensions of sustainability; and (3) multiple scales. In this chapter we summarize the framework, step by step. In Part III, following the presentation of the case studies, we include some critical reflections on how this framework works in practice. The framework is meant to be generic and flexible, so that it can be applied across a range of issues and countries. It builds upon two complementary methodologies (SEAMLESS and SENSOR), developed in the European context, but has been enhanced and adapted for use in developing countries. SENSOR (Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for Environmental, Social and Economic Effects of Multifunctional Land Use in European Regions; Helming et al., 2008a) developed ex-ante impact assessment tools at a regional scale for EU policies related to land use, with a focus on cross-sectoral trade-offs and sustainability side effects. SEAMLESS (System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Linking European Science and Society; Van Ittersum et al., 2008) concentrated on the agricultural sector and targeted at assessing agricultural and environmental policies and technological innovations at multiple scales, that is at field, farm, regional, national and EU level. Using these two methodologies as building blocks allows a wide variety of land use problems to be addressed, with a focus on agriculture, which is at the core of sustainable development in most developing countries. 45


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METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK The SIA procedure has been adapted from the SEAMLESS methodology (Ewert et al., 2009) and includes a sustainable development (SD) evaluation procedure based largely on the SENSOR approach (Helming et al., 2008a; Pérez-Soba et al., 2008).1 The SIA procedure is subdivided into three main phases (Figure 4.1): a pre-modelling phase (problem and scenario definition); a modelling phase (assessing the impacts of policies on multiple indicators); and a post-modelling phase (presenting policy options contributing most to sustainable development). Modelling is at the core of the framework and refers to computer-based models, but also includes qualitative approaches. Ex-ante impact assessments require models (whether quantitative or qualitative) that can give forecasts for the future. Involving stakeholders in the SIA is important in order to understand the regional and local problems and constraints, build trust, and have Pre-modelling: problem and scenario definition Case study description

System definition

Indicator selection

Scenario description

Problem

Causal chains

Land use functions

Context

Sectors and scales

Indicators

Base year Baseline Policy options

Adaptation and/or development of assessment tools

Apply assessment tools

IA of land use

Empirical/mechanical

Parameterization

Regional problem

Quantitative/qualitative

Simulation

Data

Stakeholders

Modelling: assessing impact of policy on multiple indicators Review and selection of assessment tools

Post-modelling: presenting policy options contributing most to sustainable development Multi-criteria analysis

Documentation and communication

Land use function values

Visualization

Land use function weights

Publication

Effective and feasible policy options

Workshops

Note: The whole framework is iterative as mentioned by the two-way arrows. Where specific iterations are required, extra (dashed) arrows are included.

Figure 4.1 Methodological framework for sustainability impact assessment (SIA) of land use policies


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Integrated assessment approach 47

impact on policy-making processes (Lebel et al., 2006; Van Paassen et al., 2007; Giller et al., 2008). Part of the framework is therefore to organize policy forums with stakeholders in each phase of the process. In the pre-modelling phase discussions focus on problem identification, finding relevant indicators, and selecting policy options that have the potential to reduce the problem and hence improve sustainable development. In the modelling phase the stakeholders are approached to provide expert knowledge on driver–impact relationships and expected changes in indicators according to scenarios. In the post-modelling phase the main contribution of the stakeholders is to discuss the modelling results and assign weights to indicators in the multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The collection and presentation of data is important in all steps of the framework. Initially, this is done separately for each case study. But to enhance mutual understanding in this multidisciplinary and multi-cultural research consortium, sharing of knowledge between researchers is as important as involvement of stakeholders. A data portal was therefore developed to present the main findings of the pre-modelling, modelling and post-modelling phases (http://lupis.cirad.fr). Although pre-modelling is logically performed before modelling, performing a SIA is an iterative process requiring refinement throughout the process, as indicated in Figure 4.1 by the two-directional vertical arrows. In this book, the focus is on the pre-modelling phase, presented for each of the seven case studies. But in this chapter, the modelling and post-modelling phase are also discussed, to show how the analysis in the pre-modelling phase, presented in this book, can be extended towards a full ex-ante sustainability impact assessment.

PRE-MODELLING Case Study Description Problem definition The selection of each case study in LUPIS is determined by a land use related problem chosen by the country team, in collaboration with the rest of the consortium. This problem creates the need for a change in policy. It is important to understand what the problem is, who perceives it as a problem, and why. In Europe, where SEAMLESS and SENSOR were developed, the main challenge of sustainable development is often seen as how to achieve economic growth without sacrificing the environment. In developing countries, by contrast, the major problem is often seen as how to reduce poverty through economic growth. But research


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often reveals that environmental and social drivers are at the core of the problem (for example land degradation leads to low productivity and poverty; high population pressure leads to sub-division of land and lower returns to labour). In middle-income countries, environmental problems including water and air pollution are increasing, and as they are starting to affect economic and social development, finding solutions for these problems is being put higher on the policy and research agendas. Context In order to increase understanding of the problem a description of the context of the case study area is required. This includes: (1) the historical context, giving an overview of the development of the problem over time; (2), the environmental context, including information on climatic and other biophysical conditions; (3) the social and economic context, indicating the importance of different economic sectors in the region and population characteristics; and (4) the policy and institutional context, reviewing the existing policies that are relevant to the land use problem, and discussing the institutions responsible for implementing and monitoring the policies and their effectiveness. A review of policies and institutions responsible for their implementation is of major importance to enable the selection of policy options and instruments that have the potential to reduce the problem at stake and hence improve sustainable development. System Definition In preparation for the modelling phase, it is necessary to go beyond a narrative description; the boundaries of the system that is affected by the problem and, specifically, the system of study, need to be clearly defined. Causal chains An important step in an ex-ante impact assessment is to analyse the complex causal relations between the various economic, environmental, social and institutional aspects of the situation; or, more precisely, to identify the causal chains between drivers and impacts. The Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) framework is widely regarded as a good basis to identify these causal chains (Smeets and Weterings, 1999; Helming et al., 2008b). The DPSIR framework was originally developed to analyse environmental impacts and therefore has a strong environmental focus. The causal chain connects Drivers (for example, economic activities such as transport or agriculture) through Pressures (e.g. emissions of


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pollutants) that influence States of the environment (e.g. soil pH, vegetation type). The changes in these states are the Impacts on the environment, specified by indicators (e.g. increase in pH or species loss). These may lead to Responses, such as setting limits to air pollution or promoting new farming systems (OECD, 1993; Petit et al., 2008). To obtain an overview of the problem, and to guide the problem analysis, the DPSIR framework is adapted and nested within the LUPIS framework (see figures in case study chapters). The Proximate Drivers are human activities that directly affect the problem and thus constitute proximate sources of change (Geist and Lambin, 2001). These are drivers (including policies) linked to economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, industry). The Underlying Drivers are more fundamental forces that underpin the more obvious proximate drivers. They are comprised of a complex set of social, political, economic, demographic, technological and cultural factors, such as economic growth, technological development, climate change and population growth. The Pressures towards sustainability considered in LUPIS are changes in land use activities/intensities (similar to Helming et al., 2008b). These pressures influence the State, as represented by relevant social, environmental and economic indicators. The Impacts are measured as the changes in indicators, which determine the impacts on sustainable development (SD). In LUPIS, the Land Use Function approach as developed in SENSOR (Pérez-Soba et al., 2008) is adopted for SD evaluation in an integrated way (see next section). The Responses refer to identified policy options that contribute to sustainable development. Although the DPSIR framework clearly helps to understand causal chains, it is important to emphasize the feedbacks. Causal chains are not one-directional; there are feedbacks between drivers, policies and indicators; and many of the indicators are interlinked. These linkages need to be taken into account in order to obtain a valid causal model of the case study problem. This model can be used in the next steps to identify relevant sectors and scales, most important impact indicators, and to develop scenarios. Sectors and scales ‘Land use sectors’ refer to the economic sectors related to the land in the case study region that affect or are affected by the problem to be assessed. ‘Land use’ includes those human activities that exhibit a spatial dimension and that change the bio-geophysical conditions of the land (Helming et al., 2008b). Main land use sectors include agriculture and forestry in rural areas; transport and energy infrastructure; tourism; and nature conservation as a ‘regulatory activity’ occupying land.


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The spatial scale defines the boundaries of the case study area and the specific assessments to be undertaken. The boundaries of the case study area depend on the drivers, pressures, states and indicators relevant for the problem. For an impact assessment, the complete case study area can be considered, but it is also possible to subdivide the region in different sub-regions and assess one sub-region in detail. The SENSOR approach is designed so as to compare impacts of alternative policy scenarios on different regions; hence with this method at least two or more regions need to be distinguished (Helming et al., 2008b). The objective of the SEAMLESS approach is to assess the impacts of policies on multiple scales, that is at field, farm, regional, national and EU level (Van Ittersum et al., 2008). All the LUPIS case studies consider problems at regional (sub-national) level; and selected policies to address these are applied at regional level. Therefore, assessments are performed at regional level. Since a case study region as a whole can be heterogeneous, a sub-division in smaller regions (administrative regions or agro-environmental zones) or farm types may be necessary (e.g. agro-ecological conditions in Karnataka state in India are very diverse, and different types of farms occur in China and Tunisia). Grouping of homogeneous units facilitates a comparison. Impacts at lower levels can be up-scaled for a regional impact assessment. How to up- scale depends on the indicator. Crop yields at farm type level, for example, can be up-scaled based on the represented area per farm type in a region. Nitrate leaching is less straightforward, as the impact at regional level depends on the distance to water bodies. In some regional assessments, drivers at higher levels (e.g. the market) may be important, and should be assessed before the regional impact assessment. What is appropriate and feasible depends on the objectives, the available data and the capabilities of selected models. Indicator Selection The next step in sustainability impact assessment is the selection of indicators. In order to guide a balanced selection of indicators, an indicator framework is nested in the methodological framework. This aims at translating a vision of sustainable development by providing guidelines for selecting suitable indicators (Alkan Olsson et al., 2009). In LUPIS, the indicator framework is generic, while the specific set of indicators differs in each case study. Land use functions The indicator framework in LUPIS builds around the concept of land use functions (LUF) (Pérez-Soba et al., 2008). For sustainable


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Economic

LUF1: Industry and services

Indicator 1.1

LUF2: Land-based production

Indicator 2.1

LUF3: Infrastructure

Indicator 3.1

LUF4: Provision of work/livelihood

Indicator 4.1

LUF5: Human health

Indicator 5.1

LUF6: Food security

Indicator 6.1

LUF7: Abiotic resources

Indicator 7.1

LUF8: Biotic resources

Indicator 8.1

LUF9: Ecosystem processes

Indicator 9.1

Baseyear Baseline Policy option 1

SD targets

Social

Policy option n

Environmental

Institutional

Indicator 10.1

Effective and feasible policy options

Notes: All environmental, economic and social indicators are assessed for different scenarios, and combined with institutional considerations; these assess the feasibility of policy options (in grey). This framework presents a generic set of LUFs, which can be adapted for the context of the case study. One or more indicators can be selected per LUF.

Figure 4.2 The indicator framework for sustainability impact assessment (SIA) using sustainable development (SD) targets, land use functions (LUF) and indicators development, multiple functions of land are of importance. For example, with regard to grassland, the function could be grass production (economic), biodiversity conservation (environmental), and conserving the cultural landscape (social). Nine regional land use functions (LUFs) are identified, three per dimension (i.e. economic, social, environmental), that are considered relevant for all case studies, but can be adapted for the specific context (Figure 4.2). land use functions illustrate the most relevant sustainability issues at regional level and are defined as types of goods and services provided to human society (e.g. economic: food production; social: provision of work; environmental: maintenance of ecosystem processes). Indicators The structure of the indicator framework is based on the first step of the analytic hierarchy process, a well established approach for structuring indicators for multi-criteria analysis (MCA), first developed by Saaty (1980). A complex problem is disaggregated into a hierarchy, in which each level consists of specific elements. The overall objective of the


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decision lies at the top of the hierarchy, and the criteria, sub-criteria and decision alternatives are placed at descending levels in this hierarchy. In our framework the overall objective is sustainable development. The tailoring of LUFs and indicators to each case study is guided by identifying sustainable development (SD) targets. Based on these SD targets, the LUFs that contribute to sustainable development can be identified and evaluated. SD targets are defined for each of the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental, social), which constitute the primary criteria. The sub-criteria are the nine LUFs, with an equal distribution of three per dimension. LUF indicators are selected taking into account: (1) their relevance to SD targets/LUFs in the case study; (2) their likely responsiveness to selected policy options; (3) the availability of data and models to assess changes in indicators; and (4) non-redundancy. Depending on these criteria, one or more indicators are selected per LUF. Selecting a single indicator per LUF allows for a straightforward communication with stakeholders, experts and other scientists. Selecting several indicators per LUF is more holistic, but also more complex, as it requires aggregation of multiple indicators into one LUF, for which methods have been developed but not yet widely applied (Paracchini et al., 2011). The decision alternatives are the different scenarios (current situation, baseline, policy options), for which the values of the indicators will differ (see Figure 4.2). The indicator framework is specifically developed for regional assessments but can nevertheless be applied at other scales (e.g. farm level) or for specific sectors (e.g. agriculture). Besides the selection of economic, social and environmental indicators that link to LUFs in these dimensions, for sustainability impact assessment of policy options it is also necessary to take account of institutional factors. In planning for sustainable development, the importance of the governance dimension is often underestimated. However good the data, analysis and resulting policies may be, the practical outcome for people and the environment will depend entirely on the willingness and ability of government to implement the policies; novel approaches are also required to build this factor into the analysis, as discussed in Chapter 3. Scenario Description In the last step of the pre-modelling phase, scenarios that will be assessed are specified in terms of parameters. Different policy options can be included in alternative policy scenarios, to be compared to the current situation and the baseline scenario. The selected policy options may be defined in iteration with other steps in the pre-modelling phase, as specific


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policy options may only be relevant for specific sectors and/or influence only a few indicators. Assumptions concerning the extent of changes in relevant drivers should be made in the pre-modelling phase. The impacts on selected indicators are assessed in the modelling phase. Current situation In order to develop a projection of the future situation, the current situation needs first to be specified. The biophysical, social and economic context for the current situation should be quantitatively described. This includes the most relevant information on drivers (including policies) that affect the selected indicators. The base year is the latest year(s) for which data are available. Baseline scenario For LUPIS, the target years are 2015 and 2025. For policy makers and stakeholders a short time horizon is mostly relevant (2015), while for an assessment of sustainable development in the longer term it is relevant to have a more distant year to complement the assessment (2025). There are a multitude of factors that can be varied when constructing projections of the future. In the case of LUPIS the focus of the analysis is on the impact of policies in specific case study areas. These are evaluated against a single baseline, a so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario where currently observed trends persist in the future. To construct a baseline scenario for a case study, the drivers as specified in the DPSIR framework are used and their development over time projected. Policy options The main objective of LUPIS is to assess the impact of land use related policies on sustainable development. Therefore, based on the steps in the pre-modelling phase, potentially effective and feasible policy options that improve sustainable development need to be selected and specified. In the case study definition, relevant policies are reviewed and classified according to a common policy typology. A review of current policies related to the problem and the institutional context are important in order to understand the current situation. For ex-ante assessment towards 2015 or 2025 policy options are selected that are thought to have the capability to improve sustainable development in the case study region. The policy forums and other interactions with stakeholders are important in formulating sound policy options. These interactions with stakeholders during the pre-modelling phase (see Figure 4.1) help to ensure that the impact assessment deals with policy options that are also considered feasible to policy makers and other stakeholders.


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MODELLING Modelling, in this methodological framework, refers to quantitatively assessing the impact of policies on selected indicators. Qualitative methods can be used, but also these are translated into numbers. The modelling phase will in practice run in parallel with the finalizing of the pre- modelling phase, calling for multiple iterations between the two. When evaluating, selecting, adapting and applying models, several steps in the pre-modelling phase may need refinement, such as the context description, indicator selection and scenario description. Iteration between phases and steps is needed, as research tools and questions to be addressed must be harmonized. Review and Selection of Assessment Tools Tools for sustainability impact assessment can be broadly categorized into ex-post approaches based on empirical data, ex-ante approaches based on modelling, and methods for evaluation of sustainable development (Payraudeau and Van Der Werf, 2005; Ness et al., 2007). Ex-post approaches are based on historical data and are used to assess driver– impact relationships and to get an indication of the current situation and trade-offs between dimensions of sustainability. Ex-ante approaches use models to make projections for the future. Methods for evaluation of SD are mentioned separately, as the above-mentioned (ex-post or ex-ante) impact assessments often focus more on good modelling practices than on providing an integrative view including a balanced set of indicators for SD. SD evaluation methods specifically focus on the latter, but are often less scientific in the quantification of indicator changes. For integrated ex-ante assessment, the generic approaches developed in the European context in the SEAMLESS and SENSOR projects can potentially be used as a basis. SEAMLESS has developed an integrated modelling framework (Van Ittersum et al., 2008) for assessment of sustainable development in agricultural systems, with models at different levels of organization (i.e. field, farm, region, continent, globe) and from different disciplines (i.e. ecological, economic, social, institutional). The SENSOR methodology aiming at indicator assessment by response functions (quantitative) and knowledge rules (qualitative), is a generic approach that can be used both when detailed data and models are available, but also when only expert knowledge is at hand (Sieber et al., 2008). For an integrated assessment of sustainable development, especially when quantitative data are not available, response functions and knowledge rules are often required to complement the analysis.


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Information from ex-post analyses can also be translated into response functions. Although these generic models provide a basis for SIA in the case studies, the selection of models should depend on the case study objectives. The models should allow assessment of the identified causal chains between drivers, policies and indicators for the land use sector(s) and at the scale(s) as identified in the pre-modelling phase. It is therefore relevant to review the appropriateness of the models developed in SEAMLESS and SENSOR, but also other models that are applied for similar purposes and for similar regional contexts. Table 4.1 gives an overview of methods that are relevant for SIA in the case studies. Ex-post approaches and SD evaluation methods include more generic approaches that can be applied at different levels of scale and for different land use sectors. Ex-ante approaches generally refer to more specific models developed for specific land use sectors and scales. SD evaluation methods are used in addition to ex-ante and ex-post approaches to evaluate changes in indicators with regard to SD. Tools are further classified into quantitative/qualitative and empirical/ mechanistic according to Bouma (1997) and Stoorvogel and Antle (2001). Quantitative mechanistic tools are detailed, often focus on a single aspect, and require much data to parameterize the models, and specialized knowledge on important processes. Quantitative empirical tools can be applied more broadly, but require many data points in order to obtain significant relationships. Qualitative mechanistic tools mainly rely on the knowledge of experts, who have detailed knowledge on processes involved. Lastly, qualitative empirical models rely on expert knowledge. Several approaches include both quantitative and qualitative information, and empirical and mechanistic knowledge; the dominant one is included in the table. Besides the nature of the problem chosen in the case study, also important for the selection of tools are the availability of data and knowledge on relevant processes. Thus, case studies focusing mainly on agriculture, including those from China, Tunisia and India, allow more detailed assessments using quantitative mechanistic tools, while case studies having a broader focus use more qualitative and empirical models in order to allow an integrated assessment. Adaptation and/or Development of Assessment Tools When models are said to be generic, this does not imply that they can directly be used to assess indicators. When a specific model is used for another type of application or in another context, data need to be collected


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Regional to Quantitative Global Mechanistic

Agriculture General economy

Computable Equilibrium Model

Quantitative Mechanistic

Farm Regional



Quantitative Empirical

Classification

Bio-economic Agriculture model

Field

Any

Scale

Agro- ecological zone

Agriculture

Any

Sector

Agriculture

Technical Coefficient Generator

Ex-ante Cropping system model

Ex-post Econometric/ regression models

Model type

Rosegrant et al. (2005)

Janssen and van Ittersum (2007)

Ponsioen et al. (2006)

Van Ittersum and Donatelli (2003)

Okwi et al. (2007) Serneels and Lambin (2001) Fan et al. (2008)

Reference (e.g.)

Agricultural income Crop production Resource allocation

Land use pattern Crop production N leaching Farm income

Crop yield N leaching Soil erosion Water use

Crop yield N leaching Soil erosion Water use

Poverty Crop yield Land use change Technology adoption

Indicators (e.g.)

Table 4.1 Models for impact assessment of land use policies in regional level case studies

Tunisia

China Tunisia

China India

Tunisia

China India Indonesia Kenya

Case studies

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Agriculture

Institutional compatibility assessment

Any

Response functions using DPSIR

Any

Agriculture Nature Urban Forestry, etc.

Multi-agent model

Knowledge rules using DPSIR

Agriculture Nature Urban Forestry, etc.

Land use change models and mapping tools

Region

Any

Qualitative Empirical




Village Regional

Any


Regional

China, India, Tunisia, Kenya, Mali, Indonesia, Brazil China, India, Tunisia, Kenya, Mali, Indonesia, Brazil

Indicators not included in other models used, but for which quantitative data is available Mainly social

China, India, Tunisia, Kenya, Mali, Indonesia, Brazil

Mali

Indonesia Brazil

Spatially representation of agents and land use

Spatially allocated land use areas

Theesfeld et al. (2010) Institutional

Sieber et al. (2008): mainly based on qualitative information

Sieber et al. (2008) : mainly based on quantitative information Zhen et al. (2009)

Bousquet and Le Page (2004)

Verburg et al. (2002): regression based Morris et al. (2011): interactive


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Sector


Any

Any

Any

FoPIA

ProVision

Any

CompasSus

Multi-criteria analysis

SD evaluation DPSIR Any

Model type

Table 4.1 (continued)

Regional

Regional National

Regional National Global

Any

Any

Scale






Classification

König et al. (2008)

Morris et al. (2011) König et al. (2010)

Rodrigues-Filho and Bursztyn (2008)

Saaty et al. (1980)

Zhen et al. (2009) : statistics based Morris et al. (2011): stakeholder based

Reference (e.g.)

Environmental SD Economic SD Social SD

Environmental SD Economic SD Social SD

SD Index Weak sustainability Strong sustainability

SD index Environmental SD Economic SD Social SD

SD index Environmental SD Economic SD Social SD

Indicators (e.g.)

Indonesia

Indonesia, Tunisia, India

Brazil

China, India, Tunisia, Kenya, Mali, Indonesia, Brazil

Case studies


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as input in the model, and adaptations to the model structure often need to be made. Adaptations and developments differ between case studies and between models, but an example is given here for the Chinese case study. A bio- economic farm model is used to assess the impact of policies to reduce nutrient pollution on farm performance in the arable sector, based on the Farming Systems SIMulator (FSSIM) (Louhichi et al., 2010). FSSIM is a generic model developed within the SEAMLESS project that can also be used outside the European context. But although the generic structure is re-usable, several components need to be adapted specifically for the case study, relying on experiences with models developed in similar regions (e.g. Hengsdijk et al., 2007; Van den Berg et al., 2007). For example, instead of rotations having one crop each year as in Europe, in Taihu Basin in China, rotations include multiple crops within one year. A major requirement as input into bio-economic models is the quantification of agro-ecological relationships. For this, the Technical Coefficient Generator developed for South-East Asia, TechnoGIN, is used (Ponsioen et al., 2006; Reidsma et al., 2011). TechnoGIN simulates input–output relationships of agricultural activities on a hectare basis. TechnoGIN is adapted to serve as a technical coefficient generator and at the same time as a database hosting all the necessary input data for FSSIM. Other agricultural sectors, including livestock farming, are assessed using response functions and knowledge rules (Sieber et al., 2008), constructed on the basis of available data and econometrically quantified relationships. FSSIM is also used in the Tunisian case study, but instead of assessing the impact of policies reducing nutrient pollution, a water pricing policy is assessed. Other input–output relationships are required; instead of focusing on nutrient cycling, water use and soil erosion are more important, and therefore a cropping system model is used. TechnoGIN on the other hand is used as a stand-alone tool to assess agro-ecological relationships of conventional and organic farming in Karnataka, India. Hence, these tools are re-usable for different contexts and questions. Participatory and interactive tools that cover the whole range of impact assessment phases, used in SENSOR, have been further developed in LUPIS to define scenarios, specify the regional sustainability context, and to conduct a participatory impact assessment based on expert judgements (FoPIA; Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment, see König et al., 2010) and to visualize and communicate land use changes and impacts on indicators and land use functions (ProVision; visualization and communication tool, see König et al., 2008). These tools are especially useful in countries where data availability is scarce.


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Application of Assessment Tools The third step in the modelling phase is the application of the models. The application of a model starts with the definition of the context and the scenario. First, the capacity of a model is related to the context formulated in the pre-modelling stage to determine model inputs and outputs, which can differ for different regions or farm types within a case study. Secondly, the model is applied for the current situation, the baseline scenario, and specific policy options, for which inputs are also different. The quality of the output of a model largely depends on the quality of the input. For qualitative models inputs depend on the experts and stakeholders selected; for quantitative empirical models on the quality of the data collected; and for quantitative mechanistic models mainly on experiments and literature. In quantitative mechanistic models, parameterization of simulated processes is also of importance. In iteration with the pre-modelling phase and model adaptation and/or development, data need to be collected in order to use the model or develop a knowledge rule. In most regions data are available from national and regional statistics, theoretical models, and earlier studies. This often needs to be complemented by surveys. Sensitivity analyses may be applied to assess the sensitivity of the model to changes in different parameters (e.g. yield, price, decision-making variables).

POST-MODELLING Multi-criteria Analysis In the post-modelling phase, the changes in indicator values associated with the corresponding LUFs for the different scenarios are evaluated for: (1) the impact on the specific problem; and (2) sustainable development in the wider context. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is used to assess which land use policy option scores best, given the preferences of stakeholders. This starts with the indicator selection (Figure 4.2). Changes in values of the indicators are assessed in the modelling phase, while the weights of LUFs and indicators are based on consultation with stakeholders and experts. First of all, trade-offs between economic, environmental and social indicators and between LUFs can be analysed. Secondly, normalizing LUFs and aggregating them using weights defined by stakeholders, summarizes multiple indicators into single scores, thereby indicating which scenario contributes best to SD. Using an MCA to derive a single SD index is mainly relevant for


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discussions with stakeholders and experts. Presenting a single SD index including the importance of different LUFs based on the values and weights will help understanding of the indicators and the procedure, which may form a basis for improvements. Caution should be taken, however, when presenting results as scientific, as the reliability depends on the stakeholders and experts selected. Furthermore, to derive a single score per scenario, indicators should be normalized considering their targets and thresholds (what is considered bad and what is considered good). The latter are generally difficult to establish. They can be based on policy targets derived from legal documents, ecological thresholds, general trends and expert knowledge. Which value is considered as sustainable determines the normalized indicator and hence the importance for the SD evaluation. Based on the multi-criteria analysis including economic, environmental and social indicators, and the institutional assessment, effective and feasible policy options can be identified.

DOCUMENTATION AND VISUALIZATION In communication with policy makers and other stakeholders, clear visualization and documentation of results as well as scenarios and associated assumptions are of major importance. A dataportal is used within the project to systematize and compare findings across seven country-specific applications in the pre-modelling, modelling and post-modelling stages (http://lupis.cirad.fr). The main purpose of the dataportal is the enhancing of communication: between scientists (within and between working groups), and between scientists and policy makers. Policy briefs have been prepared and distributed to disseminate the objectives and results of the project. Furthermore, national policy forums and stakeholder workshops have been especially useful in discussing the steps throughout the process, and will continue to be important to present results and to have an impact in the policy arena.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION In Europe there has been great interest in ex-ante impact assessment (IA) studies in the scientific literature in recent years (e.g. Helming et al., 2008a; Tscherning et al., 2008; Van Ittersum et al., 2008; Thiel, 2009), due to the introduction of the IA Guidelines in the European Union (EC, 2009). Besides other objectives, these were introduced in order to make


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policy development more transparent and predictable, and to improve the quality of European policies (Bäcklund, 2009). In developing countries, such incentives from policy makers are few, and hence impact assessments of policies are usually ex-post (e.g. Fan et al., 2008). Involving policy makers and stakeholders throughout the SIA process is important in order to contextualize the modelling work, to create confidence in it, and to increase demand for the actual use of results (Thabrew et al., 2009; Sterk et al., 2010). In the LUPIS methodological framework the pre-modelling phase and the involvement of stakeholders have therefore received much attention. This book shows that the case study description, system definition, indicator selection and scenario definition can give good insights into sustainable development in a region, and allow formulating hypotheses on impacts of policy options on indicators towards the future. This insight helps to develop and parameterize models, to design the SIA procedure and to judge the reliability of results. In many developing countries, data are lacking to parameterize process- based models. In several case studies of the project, among them Indonesia (König et al., 2010), we therefore applied the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) (Morris et al., 2011), where the whole methodological framework that is followed, and the qualitative impact assessment with quantitative elements that is done, is based on the expert knowledge of stakeholders. FoPIA does not substitute for a quantitative analysis, but it provides good guidance for the most challenging sustainability problems and can be used as a complementary impact assessment tool where quantitative approaches and models fail (e.g. in the case of poor data availability, interdisciplinary knowledge integration and stakeholder participation may be of use). Posing research questions relating to possible policy outcomes, and sharing these with policy makers, may contribute to addressing the data availability problem. The governments are likely to realize, through science–policy interaction, the need for ex-ante model-based analysis, thereby encouraging them to invest in data collection activities. The use of LUFs in sustainable development evaluation helps to understand the importance of land use for sustainable development and to stimulate discussions about causal links and possible trade-offs among stakeholders. Methods have been developed to aggregate multiple indicators into LUFs (Paracchini et al., 2011). In the LUPIS study, however, only one indicator per LUF is proposed at the stage of selecting of indicators. This enables focusing on quantifying the selected nine indicators either with models or by engaging expert knowledge and weighting them within sustainability dimensions. As summarized in this book, the methodological framework has been


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applied in seven LUPIS case studies with different land use problems, SD targets and modelling tools. It has proven a useful, but challenging framework for structuring and performing a sustainability impact assessment of land use policies. Although the case studies vary enormously in the nature of the local issues that are studied, the flexibility of the framework has allowed it to be applied in different situations, and its generic feature allows comparisons to be made between case studies.

NOTE 1. In this chapter we use the term ‘assessment’ when referring to the whole impact assessment including all phases, and ‘evaluation’ for specific steps.

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Helming, K., M. Pérez-Soba and P. Tabbush (eds) (2008a), Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, Berlin: Springer. Helming, K., K. Tscherning, B. König, S. Sieber, H. Wiggering, T. Kuhlman, D. Wascher, M. Perez-Soba, P. Smeets, P. Tabbush, O. Dilly, R. Hüttl and H. Bach (2008b), ‘Ex ante assessment of land use changes in European regions – the SENSOR approach’, in Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, K. Helming, M. Pérez-Soba and P. Tabbush (eds), Berlin: Springer, pp. 77–105. Hengsdijk, H., W. Guanghuo, M.M. van den Berg, W. Jiangdi, J. Wolf, L. Changhe, R.P. Roetter and H. van Keulen (2007), ‘Poverty and biodiversity trade-offs in rural development: a case study for Pujiang county, China’, Agricultural Systems, 94(3), 851–61. Janssen, S. and M.K. van Ittersum (2007), ‘Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models’, Agricultural Systems, 94(3), 622–36. König, H., S. Rodrigues-Filho, S. Purushothaman, P. Reidsma, I. Bezlepkina, I. Nesheim, K. Helming and S. Sieber (2008), ‘D 4.3.2: Definition of SIAT causal chain relationships between policies, land use changes and sustainability impacts’, LUPIS, EU 6th Framework Programme, accessed at: www3.lei.wur. nl/lupis/index.aspx. König, H., J. Schuler, U. Suarma, D. McNeill, J. Imbernon, F. Damayanti, S.A. Dalimunthe, S. Uthes, J. Sartohadi, K. Helming, and J. Morris (2010), ‘Assessing the impacts of land use policy on uban–rural sustainability using the FoPIA approach in Yogyakarta, Indonesia’, Sustainability, 2, 1991–2009. Lebel, L., J.M. Anderies, B. Campbell, C. Folke, S. Hatfield-Dodds, T.P. Hughes and J. Wilson (2006), ‘Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems’, Ecology and Society, 11(1), 19. Louhichi, K., S. Janseen, A. Kanellopoulos, H. Li, N. Borkowski, G. Flichman, H. Hengsdijk, P. Zander, M. Blanco Fonseca, G. Stokstad, I.N. Athanasiadis, A. Rizzoli, D. Huber, T. Heckelei and M. van Ittersum (2010), ‘A generic farming system simulator’, in F.M. Brouwer and M. van Ittersum (eds), Environmental and Agricultural Modelling. Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessment, Berlin: Springer, pp. 109–32. Morris, J.B, V. Tassone, R. De Groot, M. Camilleri, S. Moncada (2011), ‘A framework for participatory impact assessment: involving stakeholders in European policy making, a case study of land use change in malta’, Ecology and Society, 16(1), 12. Ness, B., E. Urbel-Piirsalu, S. Anderberg and L. Olsson (2007), ‘Categorising tools for sustainability assessment’, Ecological Economics, 60(3), 498–508. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1993), ‘Core set of indicators for environmental performance reviews’, Environmental Monographs, 83, Paris: OECD. OKWI, P.O., G. Ndeng’e, P. Kristjanson, M. Arunga, A. Notenbaert, A. Omolo, N. Henninger, T. Benson, P. Kariuki, and J. Owuor (2007), ‘Spatial determinants of poverty in rural Kenya’, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America, 104(43), 16769–74. Paracchini, M.L., C. Pacini, M.L.M. Jones and M. Pérez-Soba (2011), ‘An aggregation framework to link indicators associated with multifunctional land use to the stakeholder evaluation of policy options’, Ecological Indicators, 11(1), 71–80.


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Payraudeau, S. and H.M.G. van Der Werf (2005), ‘Environmental impact assessment for a farming region: a review of methods’, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 107(1), 1–19. Pérez-Soba, M., S. Petit, L. Jones, N. Bertrand, V. Briquel, L. Omodei-Zorini, C. Contini, K. Helming, J. Farrington, M. Tinacci Mossello, D. Wascher, F. Kienast, and D. de Groot (2008), ‘Land use functions: a multifunctionality approach to assess the impact of land use change on land use sustainability’, in K. Helming, P. Tabbush and M. Pérez-Soba (eds), Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, Berlin: Springer, pp. 375–404. Petit, S., F.P. Vinther, P.J. Verkerk, L.G. Firbank, N. Halberg, T. Dalgaard, C. Kjeldsen, M. Lindsen and S. Zudin (2008), ‘Indicators for assessing the environmental impacts of land use change across Europe’, in K. Helming, M. Pérez-Soba, and P. Tabbush (eds), Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, Berlin:Springer, pp. 305–24. Ponsioen, T.C., H. Hengsdijk, J. Wolf, M.K. van Ittersum, R.P. Roetter, T.T. Son, and A.G. Laborte (2006), ‘TechnoGIN, a tool for exploring and evaluating resource use efficiency of cropping systems in East and Southeast Asia’, Agricultural Systems, 87(1), 80–100. Reidsma, P., H. König, S. Feng, I. Bezlepkina, I. Nesheim, M. Bonin, M. Sghaier, S. Purushothaman, S. Sieber, M.K. van Ittersum and F. Brouwer (2011), ‘Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries’, Land Use Policy, 28, 604–17. Rodrigues-Filho, S. and M. Bursztyn (2008), ‘Compassus – compass of sustainability: a contribution from the University of Brasilia to the search for a sustainability model’, paper presented at International Conference on Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, 6–9 April, Berlin. Rosegrant, M.W., T.B. Sulser, C. Ringler, S.A. Cline and S. Msangi (2005), ‘International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Distributed Version 1.0’, International Food Policy Research Institute, Environment and Production Technology Division, Washington, DC. Saaty, T.L. (1980), The Analytic Hierarchy Process, New York: McGraw-Hill. Serneels, S. and E.F. Lambin (2001), ‘Proximate causes of land-use change in Narok district, Kenya: a spatial statistical model’, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85(1–3), 65–81. Sieber, S., K. Müller, P. Verweij, H. Haraldsson, K. Fricke, C. Pacini, K. Tscherning, K. Helming and T. Jansson (2008), ‘Transfer into decision support: the sustainability impact assessment tool’, in K. Helming, M. Pérez- Soba and P. Tabbush (eds), Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, Berlin: Springer, pp. 108–28. Smeets, E. and R. Weterings (1999), ‘Environmental indicators: typology and overview’, European Environmental Agency report no. 25, Copenhagen. Sterk, B., M.K. van Ittersum and C. Leeuwis (2010), ‘How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?’, Environmental Modelling and Software, 26(3), 310–16. Stoorvogel, J.J. and J.M. Antle (2001), ‘Regional land use analysis: the development of operational tools’, Agricultural Systems, 70(2–3), 623–40. Thabrew, L., A. Wiek and R. Ries (2009 ), ‘Environmental decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts: applicability of life cycle thinking in development planning and implementation’, Journal of Cleaner Production, 17, 67–76.


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Theesfeld, I., C. Schleyer and O. Aznar (2011), ‘The procedure for institutional compatibility assessment: ex-ante policy assessment from an institutional perspective’, Journal of Institutional Economics, 6(3), 377–99. Thiel, A. (2009), ‘The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: what role does land use play?’, Land Use Policy, 26(4), 1138–48. Tscherning, K., H. König, B. Schösser, K. Helming and S. Sieber (2008), ‘Ex- ante impact assessments (IA) in the European Commission – an overview’, in K. Helming, M. Pérez-Soba and P. Tabbush (eds), Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, Berlin: Springer, pp. 8–33. Van den Berg, M.M., H. Hengsdijk, J. Wolf, M.K. van Ittersum, W. Guanghuo and R.P. Roetter (2007), ‘The impact of increasing farm size and mechanization on rural income and rice production in Zhejiang province, China’, Agricultural Systems, 94(3), 841–50. Van Ittersum, M.K. and M. Donatelli (2003), ‘Modelling cropping systems: highlights of the symposium and preface to the special issues’, European Journal of Agronomy, 18(3–4), 187–97. Van Ittersum, M.K., F. Ewert, T. Heckelei, J. Wery, J. Alkan Olsson, E. Andersen, I. Bezlepkina, S. Brogaard, M. Donatelli, G. Flichman, L. Olsson, A. Rizzoli, T. van der Wal, J.E. Wien and J. Wolf (2008), ‘Integrated assessment of agricultural systems: a component-based framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS)’, Agricultural Systems, 96, 150–65. Van Paassen, A., R.P. Roetter, H. van Keulen and C.T. Hoanh (2007), ‘Can computer models stimulate learning about sustainable land use? Experience with LUPAS in the humid (sub-) tropics of Asia’, Agricultural Systems, 94(3), 874–87. Verburg, P.H., W. Soepboer, A. Veldkamp, R. Limpiada, V. Espaldon and S.A.S. Mastura (2002), ‘Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model’, Environmental Management, 30(3), 391–405. Zhen, L., S. Cao, Y. Wei, O. Dilly, X. Liu, F. Li, H. Koenig, K. Tscherning and K. Helming (2009), ‘Comparison of sustainability issues in two sensitive areas of China’, Environmental Science and Policy, 12(8), 1153–67.


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PART II

Case studies


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5. Agricultural non-point source pollution in Taihu Lake Basin, China Shuyi Feng, Xiaoping Shi, Pytrik Reidsma, Xianlei Ma and Futian Qu PROBLEM DESCRIPTION Economic growth has been a major aim of the Chinese government in recent decades. This has led to increasing economic welfare for most of the population, but it increasingly conflicts with social cohesion and environmental quality. Urban sprawl is increasing, while agricultural land use is becoming more intensive, leading to reduced areas for natural ecosystems and broader impacts on the environment, such as air and water pollution. Water pollution is one of the most crucial environmental problems in China. According to the 2008 State of the Environment Report by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, China’s seven major rivers (Yangtze River, Yellow River, Pearl River, Songhua River, Huaihe River, Haihe River and Liaohe River) were moderately polluted. The three major lakes (Dianchi Lake, Taihu Lake and Chaohu Lake) were badly polluted, and have entered a state of moderate or serious eutrophication. The focus of this case study is the water pollution due to agricultural sources in Taihu Lake Basin. Taihu Lake is the third largest fresh water lake in China. Its beautiful lake and mountain landscape views attract a large number of Chinese and foreign visitors to come sightseeing every year. It is not only a tourist destination, but also an important drinking water source for large and medium-sized cities within the basin. The lake also serves many other purposes, such as storage of flood water, transport, irrigation and aquaculture. In recent decades, with the rapid population increase and economic development, the water in major rivers running into the lake, and in the lake itself, has become seriously polluted, and the nitrogen and phosphorus eutrophication of water has become a major environmental problem. The Taihu Lake Basin is an economically important region in China. 69


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Water pollution and eutrophication have significantly affected regional sustainable development. Agricultural products from this region now risk being contaminated by polluted water (such as heavy metal) and can hardly satisfy people’s increasing demand for quality food or reach international quality standards for export. Industries, such as textiles and brewing, are now facing a shortage of high quality water, which is affecting further development of processing industries in this region. More important, water pollution and eutrophication reduce people’s access to safe drinking water and are detrimental to human health. Pollution control in Taihu Lake Basin has until now focused on industrial point source pollution. Less attention has been paid to agricultural non-point source pollution. Though rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in considerable loss of cultivated land, intensive arable farming, livestock breeding and aquaculture are still of great importance. Agricultural non-point source pollution, caused by inorganic fertilizers and pesticides from arable farming, the emission of animal waste from livestock breeding and inputs of feedstuff and inorganic fertilizers in aquaculture, have become the most important causes of water pollution and eutrophication in Taihu Lake Basin. It is expected that with the restructuring of industry and the improvement of production processes in China, emissions from industries will gradually decline, and pollution from domestic sewage can be reduced by wastewater treatment plants. In contrast, agricultural non-point source pollution is projected to continue growing for a long time, because these sources are extensive and complex, and governments have limited control over them (Jin et al., 2006). Therefore, analysing agricultural non-point source pollution and the drivers and main agricultural and environmental policies that can reduce agricultural non-point source pollution in more detail is of great importance.

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM Geographical Context The Taihu Lake Basin is located in the south fringe of the Yangtze River Delta, between the end of Yangtze River and the Qiantang River and Hangzhou Bay (Figure 5.1). Taihu Lake Basin crosses three provinces and one city. Its total area is 36 500 km2, of which Jiangsu province accounts for 52.6 per cent, Zhejiang province accounts for 32.8 per cent, Shanghai city accounts for 14 per cent and Anhui province accounts for 0.6 per cent (Wang, 2010). The Taihu Lake Basin contains around 30


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Taihu Lake Basin, China case study 71

Figure 5.1 Location of the Taihu Lake Basin major- or medium-sized cities and county-level cities. The main cities include Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Zhenjiang in Jiangsu province, Hangzhou, Jiaxing and Huzhou in Zhejiang province and the municipality of Shanghai. Taihu Lake Basin is divided into upstream and downstream regions. The upstream region is located in the west of Taihu Lake, including Tiaoxi, Hexi, Nanxi and Taoge river systems. The downstream region is located in the east of Taihu Lake, including Huangpu and Yonghe river systems. The lake is shallow, with an average depth of 1.9 metres, and the water flows from north-west to south-east and relatively slowly. Socio-economic Context The Taihu Lake Basin is one of the most developed regions in China. In 2005, the population was 45.33 million, and the population density was 1000 persons per km2. The urbanization rate, represented by the ratio of non-agricultural population in total population, was 73 per cent. In 2005, regional GDP was USD312.07 billion, 11.6 per cent of the national GDP. Per capita GDP was USD6912, 3.4 times the national average. However, six major polluting industries – textile industry, paper,


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petroleum processing, chemical, medical and chemical fibre production – contributed to 25 per cent of the regional GDP. In 2005, the cultivated land was 1 475 000 ha in Taihu Lake Basin. Per capita cultivated land was 0.033 ha, 35.7 per cent of the national average.1 Regarding other socio-economic conditions, data from South Jiangsu, which accounts for more than half of the Taihu Lake Basin in terms of area, may be taken as to some extent representative of the Taihu Lake Basin as a whole. Per capita disposable income for urban residents was USD2558, and per capita income of rural residents was USD1209 (Jiangsu Bureau of Statistics, 2007). Average per capita saving was USD4753 (Jiangsu Bureau of Statistics, 2007). In terms of urban employment, the registered unemployed population was 205 400, and the registered unemployment rate was 3.27 per cent. Environmental Context Water pollution was not an important environmental problem in China before the 1960s, but since then water quality of all the major rivers and lakes has been continuously deteriorating. According to the State Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-88) made by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China,2 water quality in Taihu Lake was Grade I or II in the 1960s, but deteriorated to Grade II in the 1970s, Grade III in the 1980s, Grade IV or V in the 1990s and worse than Grade V now (Zhang et al., 2004). The main pollutants in the Taihu Lake are total nitrogen (TN) and total Phosphorus (TP), with concentrations of 1.11 and 0.052 mg/L respectively in 1980s, while they are 2.54 and 0.100 respectively now (Zhang et al., 2004). In 2000, agricultural non-point source pollution (including rural domestic sewage) contributed around 59 per cent to TN and 30 per cent to TP in Taihu Lake (Yang and Wang, 2003). In 2005, the numbers were around 68 per cent and 51 per cent respectively. Policy Context The Chinese authorities have implemented many policies which relate, directly or indirectly, to water pollution and eutrophication. We have identified a total of 22 policies related to agricultural non-point source pollution in Taihu Lake Basin. These may be classified according to the typology of land use policies described in Chapter 13, as follows. Twelve resource-oriented policies The common purpose of most of the laws characterized as resource oriented is the appropriate development, utilization and protection of water


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and soil resources. The goals are prevention and control of water pollution and disasters, while at the same time meeting the needs of national economic development and people’s livelihoods. The laws are important for achieving sustainable development, but they have generally not yet achieved their initial goals. The laws are formulated to deal with the consequences of pollution, but not with the actors who cause the pollution. In order to improve this, the responsibility for management should be better targeted at different watershed and regional levels, and regulations should be clarified and standardized. Six sectoral policies The purpose of these policies is mainly to reduce environmental pollution from the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, these policies aim to reduce the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers by pesticide control, by stimulating new types of fertilizers and by the promotion of modern and ecological/organic agriculture. Several policies focus on the prevention and control of pollution from intensive and large-scale livestock and poultry farms. The impact on sustainable development would improve if the authorities could strengthen the implementation and enhance the dissemination of the regulations. This requires a raising of public awareness of the need for environmental protection. Other policies aim to encourage and support agricultural production by providing direct subsidies (this applies only to grain production) and subsidies for purchasing agricultural inputs, high quality seeds and agricultural machinery. Four territorial policies These policies include planning at provincial, town and country level. The aims are development planning of municipalities and towns; functional zoning for prohibited, restricted and feasible areas; land use planning; integrated transportation systems; and other types of spatial planning. Implementation of these plans is intended to be beneficial for the appropriate planning of land use in town and country development, and to promote sustainable development from economic, social and environmental points of view. In addition, several integrated policies are formulated that promote recycling, including recycling in agriculture, as the core of the ecological economy. In summary, many policies have been formulated to prevent or control water pollution and eutrophication in Taihu Lake Basin (for more details, see section ‘Land use policies as drivers’ below). But a major problem is the lack of institutional capacity and skilled staff in charge of the implementation, dissemination, monitoring and enforcement of environmental


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laws and regulations (Wang et al., 2009). These have prevented policies from being effective. Institutional Context Since water can be used for different purposes, including agriculture, industry, transportation, electricity, domestic use and tourism, many different ministries are directly or indirectly responsible for the prevention and control of water pollution. Prevention and control of water pollution in China is based on a so-called ministry and hierarchy responsibility system. This requires coordination and collaboration among ministries, provinces, cities and counties. But Taihu Lake Basin includes Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces and Shanghai City, and around 30 medium-sized and county-level cities within the three provinces, and an effective coordination and collaboration mechanism has not yet been established. Increasing emphasis is being placed on public participation in the prevention and control of water pollution in Taihu Lake Basin. Recent regulations focus on how to increase public environmental awareness, strengthen publicity and transparency of environmental information, and stimulate the public to participate in reporting environmental problems. However, these regulations are not very operational. The public do not actually participate in environmental management, and their rights of expression are given little attention. All of these factors have prevented the earlier mentioned policies from achieving their policy targets.

CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS In this section we apply the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) framework (see Figure 5.2) to obtain an overview of the problem and guide the problem analysis. Drivers As indicated in Figure 5.2, the drivers are divided into three components: the underlying drivers, proximate drivers, and policy drivers. The underlying drivers The underlying drivers are fundamental forces that underpin the proximate drivers. The main underlying drivers identified for the China case study are: (1) economic development; (2) population growth; and (3) technological development.


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D

Underlying drivers: economic development, population growth, technological development Proximate drivers: agricultural intensification, food demand

P

Policies: 10th 5-year scheme of water pollution prevention and control in the Taihu Lake (2001–05), agriculture-related policies, and so on.

Land use area and land use intensity

Indicators

S

Arable:

Livestock:

Perennial:

Fish:

K/N ratio N input N, P leaching Crop production Net income Input use Labour use Biocide index Rice production

Pollution load Biodiversity N, P leaching Meat production Net income Input use Labour use Self-sufficiency

K/N ratio Biodiversity N, P leaching Crop production Net income Input use Labour use Biocide index Self-sufficiency

K/N ratio Biodiversity N, P leaching Fish production Net income Input use Labour use Self-sufficiency

SD evaluation of changes in indicators

I

Land use functions: Environmental: abiotic resources, biotic resources, ecosystem processes Economic: physical production, economic production, industry and services Social: provision of work/livelihood, human health, food security Aggregation (1) from indicators to LUFS and (2) from farm type to agricultural sector to region

Policy options: stimulation of alternative agricultural systems Change arable land to trees

R

Stimulation of site-specific nutrient management Stimulation of mechanical transplanting Stimulation of biogas digesters

Source: Reidsma et al. (2009).

Figure 5.2 DPSIR framework of the case study in China Economic development Taihu Lake Basin is a highly developed region in China. In 2006, per capita GDP for Shanghai City, Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province was USD11 140, 4220 and 5000, respectively, much higher than that of China as a whole. Economic development through


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industrialization and urbanization has resulted in major land use change in Taihu Lake Basin. Population growth Taihu Lake Basin is characterized by high population density. In 2000 the population density was 2370, 781 and 607 person/km2 in Shanghai City, Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province, respectively (Yang and Wang, 2003). The natural population growth rate in Taihu Lake Basin displayed a decreasing trend during 1990–2000. Except for Shanghai, the natural population growth rate in the rest of Taihu Lake Basin, however, is still positive (Yang and Wang, 2003). Technological development Technological development in the Basin has improved the quality of other production factors, especially labour, restructured traditional production and upgraded industry and its products. These effects are already included under ‘economic development’; but, furthermore, technological development directly influences agricultural intensification. The proximate drivers The proximate drivers are human activities that directly affect the problem and thus constitute proximate sources of change (Geist and Lambin, 2001). The main proximate drivers identified for the China case study are: agricultural intensification and food demand. Since 1978 technological development has gradually increased land and labour productivity in agricultural production. Economic development, especially the development of Township and Village Enterprises in Taihu Lake Basin, has attracted rural labour to shift from agricultural to industrial and service sectors. Traditional agricultural production methods, such as appropriate rotation (green manure) and use of organic manure, are no longer practised, and soil fertility has been gradually declining. Together with the increasing demand for food, agricultural production is becoming more intensified. In 2006, gross agricultural output value in Taihu Lake Basin was USD15.74 billion, of which the arable, perennial, livestock, fishery and service sectors have accounted for 47, 5, 20, 24 and 4 per cent respectively. We will focus on the three largest of these, intensive arable farming, intensive livestock breeding and intensive fishing, in addition to the effect of the restructuring of arable farming from food crop production to cash crop production. Intensive arable farming In order to meet the food demand of the huge and growing population, arable farming in Taihu Lake Basin has become extremely intensive, represented by the very high use of inorganic fertilizers and biocides. The use of chemical fertilizers and biocides in


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Taihu Lake Basin was about 577.5 and 34.5 kg/ha respectively, 1.4 and 3 times the national average (Lin, 2002). The ratio of organic manure to inorganic fertilizer use was 3:7 in the mid-1980s, while it was 1:9 in the mid-1990s (Lin, 2002). Research has indicated that the most appropriate dosage of nitrogen fertilizer for the high productivity rice–wheat rotation in Taihu Lake Basin should be around 400 kg/ha (Wang et al., 2004a; Jing et al., 2009), and the appropriate ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium should be 1:0.3:0.5 (N:P2O5:K2O). However, in the northern Taihu Lake Basin, the average use of nitrogen fertilizer is higher than 500 kg N/ha and reaches 1000 kg N/ha in some cases (Wang et al., 2004b, and own survey). Due to the excessive use of nitrogen, the imbalanced application of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium and the inappropriate way of fertilizing, the nitrogen use efficiency was only 30–35 per cent, and unused nitrogen has therefore entered into the air and water environment. Intensive livestock breeding and fisheries With the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for meat, eggs and milk has been increasing in Taihu Lake Basin. The livestock breeding industry has gradually developed since the 1990s, reflected in an increase in production scale, modernization and intensification. Intensive livestock breeding has a major negative impact on the environment. The animal waste is often directly washed away into the environment. In Shanghai, there were more than 1600 large and medium sized livestock breeding farms in 1998. Annual livestock waste was more than 7 million tons, and annual direct loss, converted to CODCr, BOD5 and NH3-N, were about 89 500, 28 100 and 7600 tons respectively (Ni and Hua, 2000). Using animal waste for other purposes can reduce impacts on the environment. The animal waste can instead be applied to the farmland as organic manure. Compared with chemical fertilizers, however, the nutrient content of animal waste is relatively low, the transportation cost is high, and the application requires considerable effort. Animal waste is therefore applied only on limited areas of farmland around the livestock farm, and the nutrients cannot be fully absorbed, and are washed away into the water environment (Gao et al., 2002). Intensive fishing also causes water pollution. Intensive fishing mainly takes place in East Taihu Lake. Of a total area of East Taihu Lake of about 131 km2, the area for aquaculture was as high as 28.3 km2 (Qin et al., 2002). The rapid expansion of aquaculture has led to a decrease of water purification capacity and contributed to eutrophication. A large amount of feed is used in intensive aquaculture in Taihu Lake, but only 13.9 per cent of nitrogen and 25.4 per cent of phosphorus have been


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converted into fish products; the rest is either fermented in the bottom of the lake or enters the water (Jin et al., 2006). Restructuring of arable farming from food to cash crop production Due to the high profitability of vegetables, fruits and flowers, farmers have an incentive to shift their arable farming from food to cash crops. Cash crops normally receive more chemical fertilizers, biocides and organic manure. According to a survey of more than 20 cash crops in 31 Chinese provinces, one seasonal cash crop often receives on average 569–2000 kg/ ha nitrogen, much higher than that of food crops (Price Department of National Development and Reform Commission, 2001). Increasing cash crop production, and the associated high application of chemical inputs is becoming one of the factors affecting water pollution and eutrophication in Taihu Lake Basin. Land use policies as drivers In Taihu Lake Basin several policies have a direct effect on agricultural non-point source pollution. The prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution in China has lagged far behind that of point source pollution. ‘The Tenth Five-Year Scheme of Water Pollution Prevention and Control in the Taihu Lake (2001)’ (hereafter ‘the Scheme’) for the first time noted that the focus of prevention and control of water pollution in Taihu Lake Basin should be shifted from industrial point source alone to a combination of industrial point source and agricultural non-point source, and it outlined detailed plans for the prevention and control of non-point source pollution in Taihu Lake. Livestock breeding According to the Scheme, in Zhejiang province the size of the livestock breeding farms should be determined according to the regional environmental capacity, and livestock breeding should be centralized in a village. For centralized livestock breeding regions and large-scale breeding farms, dry and wet animal waste were to be separated and treated accordingly; ten biogas digesters should be built in these scale breeding farms; and ecological agricultural production, such as ‘livestock breeding – biogas digester – fruit (vegetable/fish) production’, was to be stimulated according to the plans. Two earthworm breeding demonstration sites were planned to be built, making use of animal waste. Arable farming According to the Scheme, numerous plans have focused on how to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers. Balanced fertilization technology should be stimulated to control inappropriate fertilization and


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the over-use of nitrogen and phosphorus. New and efficient fertilizers, such as biological fertilizers, should be recommended. Compound and specialized fertilizers (formula fertilizers with a specially adapted formula of N:P:K as opposed to the standard 15:15:15) should replace standard fertilizers to raise the nitrogen use efficiency. Structural changes in agricultural production are required to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and biocides. A 2 km2 precision fertilization demonstration base was planned to be built, supported by GIS and an expert system, specialized fertilizer supply and fertilization extension services. In addition, an ecological greenbelt (buffer zone) was required to be built around the lake itself and the rivers that flow into the lake. Fishing According to the Scheme, aquaculture can only take place in South Taihu Lake; and even here the area for aquaculture should be restricted to a maximum of 10 km2. Fishing technology should be improved, ecological fishing methods should be promoted, and feed should be reduced. In addition, water from the fish pond should flow through ecological ditches before entering into the water environment. In 2002 the Ministry of Agriculture decided to implement the agricultural non-point source pollution survey. In 2004, the first provincial level regulation on livestock management was implemented in Shanghai. Livestock quantity has been reduced, and prohibited, restricted and feasible areas for livestock breeding have been planned. Since 2004, some agriculture-related policies have been implemented in Taihu Lake Basin to encourage agricultural extension offices to conduct soil testing and provide fertilizer application advice, to motivate farmers to apply formula and organic fertilizers, and to encourage agricultural service organizations and farmers to use machinery in agricultural production by providing subsidies. In October 2007, the ‘Jiangsu Provincial Working Plan for the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution in Taihu Lake’ (hereafter the ‘Working Plan’) was implemented. Especially for the first grade protection areas in Taihu Lake Basin (that is areas within 5 km of the lake; or for rivers running into the lake, 10 km from the lake and 1 km on each side of the river), the Working Plan has specified a reduction rate for the emission of TN and TP, a reduction rate for the use of biocides and nitrogen, the comprehensive use rate of animal waste and a reduced size of the area enclosed for aquaculture. Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou cities, and some district and county-level cities have made plans accordingly. All of these policies have been implemented in Taihu Lake Basin to a great extent, and are likely to have a significant effect on agricultural intensification and hence the water environment.


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Pressure The high population density associated with the development of industrial and agricultural sectors has caused great pressure on the limited land resources and accordingly the environment in Taihu Lake Basin. As indicated previously, in Taihu Lake Basin a large amount of farmland has been converted to non-agricultural uses. During the period from 1985 to 2000, industrialization and urbanization have resulted in a decrease of cultivated and unused land, while the built-up area, forestland, grassland and water body have been increasing (Wan and Yang, 2005). Based on remote sensing and GIS data, Wan and Yang (2005) calculated that land use change is dominated by the decrease of arable land (-134 760 ha) and the increase of built-up area (+123 651 ha). Within the agricultural sector, farmland which had originally been used for food crop production has been converted to cash crop and even fish production for economic purposes. This has put great pressure on the already limited land resources. State Farmland reduction and intensified land use have affected the economic, social and environmental conditions in Taihu Lake Basin. The current state of Taihu Lake Basin is characterized by high agricultural productivity, high farm income, high food self-sufficiency, water pollution, nitrogen and phosphorus eutrophication and loss of biodiversity. In the Chinese case study, different agricultural land use sectors are distinguished (arable, perennial, livestock and fish). Figure 5.2 shows the main indicators used to describe and analyse the state related to different land use sectors. Impact Intensive agricultural production has put pressure on sustainable development. It has had a positive effect on the economic dimension of sustainable development in Taihu Lake Basin (that is physical production, economic production and industry and services). However, it has also contributed to numerous environmental and social problems in this region. In Taihu Lake, water quality is continuously deteriorating and water eutrophication is becoming more serious. Water pollution and eutrophication have led to the reduction of aquatic organism varieties and the loss of aquatic biodiversity, and have affected people’s access to safe water supply and accordingly human health. For example, due to the cyanobacteria outbreak in 1990, several drinking water plants drastically reduced the water supply, causing serious water shortages for industrial production


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and domestic purposes (Yang and Wang, 2003). More than 110 factories stopped their production, and local residents had difficulties in obtaining drinking water (Yang and Wang, 2003). In early May 2007, climatic extremes once again stimulated the large-scale cyanobacteria outbreak in the north part of the Taihu Lake, resulting in malodorous tap water and panic buying of mineral water in Wuxi city.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND POLICY INSTRUMENTS Sustainable Development Objectives in Taihu Lake Basin According to the ‘Jiangsu Provincial Working Plan for the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution in Taihu Lake’ issued in 2007, the overall goals for sustainable development in Taihu Lake Basin are to improve the quality of water, to ensure human health (through safe drinking water and green agricultural products) and to promote the harmonious development of the economy, environment and society. The economic dimension of sustainable development targets is not very specific, but includes: (1) increasing farm household income; (2) increasing food production to meet the rising demand; and (3) bridging the income gap between the rural and urban population. The social dimension of sustainable development targets includes providing all people with: (1) safe drinking water; (2) safe and enough agricultural products; (3) a healthy life. The environmental dimension of the sustainable development targets is much more specific. In 2010, the use of biocide and nitrogen should be reduced by 30 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. Agricultural emission of total nitrogen and total phosphorus should fall by at least 50 per cent. In 2010, total emission of COD, ammonia-nitrogen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus should be controlled at 263 800, 20 800, 27 800 and 5900 tons; and should be reduced by 32.52, 33.37, 30 and 30 per cent respectively compared with that in 2006. In 2015, water quality should reach Grade III (the concentration of COD and NH3-N should be below 20 mg/l and 1.5 mg/l). The natural scenery and environment should be restored. Selected Policies to Promote Sustainable Development Based on the review of policies that might improve sustainable development in Taihu Lake Basin (see above sub-section on Policy context), together with an institutional assessment and discussions with stakeholders, four policy options that have the capacity to reduce pollution from the


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agricultural sector and contribute to sustainable development have been identified. These have already been adopted by some farmers, and can be simulated using available data and models. The four policy options are: for the arable farming sector, (1) conversion from arable land to trees in areas close to rivers and the lake; (2) stimulation of the use of site-specific nutrient management; (3) stimulation of mechanical rice transplanting; and for the livestock breeding sector, (4) stimulation of the use of biogas digesters in livestock breeding farms. The first policy option considers conversion from arable land to trees (ecological green belt) in areas close to rivers (that is 10 km from the lake and 500 m on both sides of the rivers) and the lake (that is 1 km around the lake). Farmers who have land in these areas get compensation payments, but can no longer grow crops on these lands. Planting trees along the rivers and around the lake reduces the total farmland area where fertilizers are applied, and hence the nutrient emission. These ecological green belts also reduce nutrient leaching towards rivers and lake. Klok et al. (2002) undertook a literature review on the effectiveness of ecological green belts (buffer zones) on reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and showed that with a width of more than 20 m, the effectiveness was around 80 per cent for phosphorus and 89 per cent for nitrogen. As the ecological green belts in Taihu Lake Basin are at least 500 m, and trees are planted and harvested, it can be assumed that these levels of reduction will certainly be achieved. The second policy option refers to stimulation of site-specific nutrient management. Since 2005, state and local government have provided subsidies to agricultural extension offices to give site-specific recommendations on nutrient management based on soil samples (Dobermann et al., 2002; Wang et al., 2007). Generally used fertilizers in Taihu Lake Basin usually contain too much nitrogen and too little potassium. Also, too much nitrogen is often applied at first application, while the uptake is not very high in the beginning of the growing season, and hence nutrient leaching occurs. A better formula for fertilizers and a better timing will reduce nutrient pollution, and may also have positive side-effects on input costs, crop yields and income. In Wujin, one of the districts in Changzhou City, researchers have found that applying so-called formula fertilizer could save 67.5 kg/ ha nitrogen fertilizer. The third policy option is the stimulation of mechanical rice transplanting. Subsidies are provided to farmers and specialized mechanical service providers if they want to purchase agricultural machinery, such as machines for rice transplanting. Mechanical instead of hand transplanting of rice can reduce labour use, reduce pesticide use and increase yields and income. During our survey in Changzhou, local extension officers made a calculation of the economic and environmental gains from using mechanical rice transplanting.


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For 66 700 ha of irrigated land, hand transplanting of rice requires 6 670 ha of seedling bed, and four applications of biocides are required during the nursery period. The total usage of biocide is around 26 tons. However, mechanical rice transplanting only requires 667 ha of seedling bed and only two applications of biocides are needed (covered by non-woven fabrics). The total usage of biocides could thus be reduced to 1.3 tons. The fourth policy option is the stimulation of the use of biogas digesters. Farmers and livestock breeding farms are subsidized to build biogas digesters. The amount of the subsidy, however, differs by location and by the scale of the biogas digester. The use of biogas digesters in livestock breeding farms can reduce nutrient pollution. Research has indicated that by installing biogas digesters, 90 per cent of TN and TP can be removed; this would have a great negative impact on water pollution and eutrophication (Zhang, 2009). As a positive side-effect, biogas digesters can generate energy and thus reduce energy costs, and can accordingly increase income for livestock breeding farms.

INDICATOR DISCUSSION We selected indicators for different agricultural land use sectors, arable farming, livestock breeding, perennial production and fishing sectors, and for agriculture as a whole. As arable farming has the largest impact on nitrogen load in the water environment and an increasing impact on phosphorus load, we will here focus our discussion on the list of indicators and their linkages to land use functions (LUFs) for the arable farming sector. The indicator framework is presented in Table 5.1. As indicated in Table 5.1, a set of nine land use functions are defined in Table 5.1 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimensions Sustainable development pillar

Land use functions (LUF)

LUF Indicator

ENV 1 ENV 2 ENV 3 ECO 1 ECO 2 ECO 3 SOC 1 SOC 2 SOC 3

Abiotic resources (LUF1) Biotic resources (LUF2) Ecosystem processes (LUF3) Industry and services (LUF4) Economic production (LUF5) Physical production (LUF6) Provision of work/livelihood (LUF7) Human health (LUF8) Food security (LUF9)

Fertilizer K/N ratio Nitrogen input Nitrogen leaching Input use Farmers’ net income Crop production Labour use Biocide index Rice production


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the Chinese case study, three per dimension of sustainable development. Environmental LUFs are abiotic resources (LUF1), biotic resources (LUF2) and maintenance of ecosystem processes (LUF3). The different environmental LUFs can be represented by different indicators. For LUF1, the application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer compared to potassium (K) is selected as the indicator. As discussed previously, fertilizer N/K ratio has been too high in recent decades. Arable farming-related policies, such as stimulation of the use of formula fertilizers, can increase the contribution of K compared to N and improve the soil fertility and hence the LUF ‘abiotic resources’. For LUF2, a proxy such as nitrogen input (Kleijn et al., 2009; Asai et al., 2011) can be used as an indicator. Policies, such as conversion from arable land to trees and stimulation of the use of formula fertilizers, are expected to reduce the use of nitrogen and increase biodiversity and therefore improve the LUF ‘biotic resources’, although the reduction may not be very high considering the high base level of nitrogen use. For LUF3, nitrogen leaching is the selected indicator. Conversion from arable land to trees and stimulation of the use of formula fertilizers would improve soil fertility and reduce nitrogen leaching. Also phosphorus leaching can be related to this LUF. Economic LUFs are industry and services (LUF4), economic production (LUF5) and physical production (LUF6). For LUF4, input use is selected as a representative indicator. A higher input use represents more dependence and linkage to industry and services in the region. The three policies would affect input use in different ways. Farmers can no longer grow crops on converted lands, and therefore input use on these lands would be zero. A better formula for fertilizers and a better timing might reduce fertilizer use while increasing labour use. Mechanical rice transplanting reduces labour use and increases machinery use. For LUF5, farmers’ net income is the selected indicator. The effect on agricultural income is one of the major indicators for farmers to judge whether or not a policy is successful. The effect of conversion from arable land to trees on agricultural income depends on whether the compensation farmers get can make up the loss from agricultural production. The effect of the use of formula fertilizer and mechanical rice transplanting on agricultural income depends on the changes in gross production and input costs. For LUF6, crop production is selected as the indicator. Crop production on converted lands is zero. For the other two policies, increases in rice, wheat and rapeseed yields are estimated based on experiments, surveys, models and information from government officials, while areas can be estimated by models. Several indicators have been selected to represent the social dimension relating to provision of work/livelihood (LUF7), human health (LUF8)


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and food security (LUF9). For LUF7, labour use is the most important indicator. As discussed in LUF4, labour use is zero on converted lands, would reduce when applying mechanical rice transplanting, but would increase when applying fertilizer according to a better timing. As off-farm wages are often higher than what can be earned on-farm, a reduction in labour use is considered positive. For LUF8, a biocide index, calculated based on the amount of biocide, the active ingredient, its half-life and toxicity, is selected. The high use of pesticides can be detrimental to the health of farmers. Mechanical rice transplanting can reduce the use of biocides. For LUF9, rice production is selected as the indicator. Rice is the major staple crop in China. As discussed in LUF6, rice yield will be zero for the conversion from farmland to trees, while it may increase for the other two selected arable farming-related policies.

CONCLUSIONS China has experienced remarkably rapid economic growth in recent decades, but this has some negative effects on other dimensions of sustainable development. One of the most serious of these is water pollution. This case study, focused on Taihu Lake, the third largest fresh water lake in China, exemplifies the problem. Water pollution and eutrophication have had serious environmental, social and economic effects. The high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in particular, have resulted in a decline in fish density, biodiversity and even the extinction of some species in the lake. In economic terms, agricultural products now risk being contaminated by polluted water, and industries such as textiles and brewing are facing a shortage of high quality water, which is hindering further development. More important, water pollution and eutrophication reduce people’s access to safe drinking water and are detrimental to human health. With increased economic resources, and concern for the environment, China has been taking remedial and rather successful action on industrial point source pollution by implementing policies to reduce industrial effluent and treat domestic sewage. But less attention has been paid to agricultural pollution. Though rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in considerable loss of cultivated land, intensive arable farming, livestock breeding and aquaculture are still of great importance in the Taihu Lake basin. Agricultural non-point source pollution caused by inorganic fertilizers and pesticides from arable farming, the emission of animal wastes from livestock breeding, and inputs of feedstuff and inorganic fertilizers in aquaculture has become one of the most important causes of


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water pollution and eutrophication. Furthermore, agricultural non-point source pollution is projected to continue to grow for a long time. Therefore, analysing agricultural non-point source pollution and the drivers and main agricultural and environmental policies that can reduce agricultural non-point source pollution in more detail is of great importance. The DPSIR framework has been an effective tool, by analysing the various factors in a causal chain, for example how economic development drives agricultural intensification and thus continuing pollution in the lake. A simplified DPSIR framework has also been useful to communicate these feedback mechanisms to the stakeholders. Altogether 22 policies related to agricultural non-point source pollution have been identified. A classification of land use policies that distinguishes between the objectives and the instruments of these policies has facilitated the understanding of the impacts of these policies related to the overall goal of reducing pollution in Taihu Lake. Ongoing research will perform an integrated assessment of four promising policies to identify effective and feasible policy options in more detail.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work is funded by the LUPIS project, under the EU 6th Framework Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems programme. The authors gratefully acknowledge the partial support provided by the Natural Science Foundation of China (70833001).

NOTES 1. This information is collected from the Overall Design of Comprehensive Control of Water Environment in Taihu Lake Basin (http://www.chinaenvironment.com). 2. As a source for drinking water supply, water quality should at least be Grade III (Grade I: high, Grade II: good, Grade III: fair, Grade IV: poor, and Grade V: bad).

REFERENCES Asai, M., P. Reidsma and S. Feng (forthcoming), ‘Impacts of agricultural land use changes on biodiversity in Taihu Lake Basin, China: a multi-scale cause–effect approach considering multiple land use functions’, International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Service and Management. Dobermann, A., C. Witt, D. Dawe, S. Abdulrachman, H.C. Gines, R. Nagarajan, S. Satawathananont, T.T. Son, P.S. Tan, G.H. Wang, N.V. Chien, V.T.K. Thoa,


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C.V. Phung, P. Stalin, P. Muthukrishnan, V. Ravi, M. Babu, S. Chatuporn, J. Sookthongsa, Q. Sun, R. Fu, G.C. Simbahan and M.A.A. Adviento (2002), ‘Site-specific nutrient management for intensive rice cropping systems in Asia’, Field Crops Research, 74(1), 37–66. Gao, C., J. Zhu and Y. Dou (2002), ‘Contribution of agricultural non-point source pollution to water quality deterioration in Tai Lake watershed: recent trends and research priorities’, Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 11(3), 260–63. Geist, H.J. and E.F. Lambin (2001), ‘A meta-analysis of proximate and underlying causes of deforestation based on subnational case study evidence’, LUCC report series no. 4, accessed at www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/lucc.html. Jiangsu Bureau of Statistics (2007), Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu, Beijing: China Statistics Press. Jiangsu Provincial Government (2007), ‘Jiangsu provincial working plan for the prevention and control of water pollution in Taihu Lake’, accessed at www.jsrd. gov.cn/jsrd/dffg1/200812/t20081231_1852.html. Jin, X., J. Gao and G. Zhao (2006), ‘Impacts of 20-year socio-economic development on the trend of aquatic environment of the Taihu Basin’, Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 15(3), 298–302. Jing, Q., H. Van Keulen, H. Hengsdijk, W. Cao, P.S. Bindraban, T. Dai and D. Jiang (2009), ‘Quantifying N response and N use efficiency in ricewheat (RW) cropping systems under different water management’, Journal of Agricultural Science, 147, 303–12. Kleijn, D., F. Kohler, A. Báldi, P. Batáry, E.D. Concepción, Y. Clough, M. Díaz, D. Gabriel, A. Holzschuh, E. Knop, A. Kovács, E.J.P. Marshall, T. Tscharntke and J. Verhulst (2009), ‘On the relationship between farmland biodiversity and land-use intensity in Europe’, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 903–909. Klok, C., P. Römkes, H. Naeff, G. Arts, H. Runhaar, K. van Diepen and G. Noij (2002), ‘Gebiedsgerichte milieumaatregelen voor waterkwaliteit en natuur in Noord-Brabant’, Alterra-rapport, 635, Wageningen. Lin, Z. (2002), ‘Analysis of water environmental change in Taihu Watershed’, Journal of Lake Sciences, 14(2), 111–16. Ni, Y. and G. Hua (2000), ‘Practice and reflection on the comprehensive harness of excrement from animals and poultries in Shanghai’, China Environmental Management, 6, 34–6. Price Department of National Development and Reform Commission (2001), Compilation of Cost and Income of Agricultural Products in China, Beijing: Price Press. Qin, B., Q. Wu, J. Gao, C. Fan, G. Xu, W. Chen, R. Mao and Y. Chen (2002), ‘Water environmental issues in Taihu Lake of China: problems, causes and management’, Journal of Natural Resources, 17(2), 221–8. Reidsma, P., S. Feng, H. Keulen, X. Shi and F. Qu (2009), ‘D10.1 Description of the pre-modelling phase concluding with the procedure for integrated impact assessment in the case study of China’, LUPIS Project, Eu 6th Framework Programme, contract no. 36955, accessed at www.lupis.eu. State Environmental Protection Administration (now the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China), the provincial government of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai and the relevant departments of the State Council (2001), ‘The tenth five-year scheme of water pollution prevention and control


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in the Taihu Lake (2001–2005)’, accessed at www.jshb.gov.cn/jshbw/jhgh/gigh/ zxswgh/200909/p020090901794650559130.pdf. Wan, R. and G. Yang (2005), ‘Land use change and its spatial distribution in Taihu Basin’, Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 14(3), 298–303. Wang, D.J., Q. Liu, J.H. Lin and R.J. Sun (2004a), ‘Optimum nitrogen use and reduced nitrogen loss for production of rice and wheat in the Yangtse Delta region’, Environmental Geochemistry and Health, 26(2–3), 221–7. Wang, G., Q.C. Zhang, C. Witt and R.J. Buresh (2007), ‘Opportunities for yield increases and environmental benefits through site-specific nutrient management in rice systems of Zhejiang province, China’, Agricultural Systems, 94(3), 801–806. Wang, H. (2010), Innovative Thoughts and Key Counter Measures for the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution in Lake Watershed, Beijing: Science Press. Wang, L., Y. Cai and L. Fang (2009), ‘Pollution in Taihu Lake, China: causal chain and policy options analyses’, Frontiers of Earth Science in China, 3(4), 437–44. Wang, X., W. Zhang, Y. Huang and S. Li (2004b), ‘Modeling and simulation of point-non-point source effluent trading in Taihu Lake area: perspective of non-point sources control in China’, The Science of the Total Environment, 325, 39–50. Yang, G. and D. Wang (eds) (2003), Economic Development, Water Environment and Water Disaster in Taihu Lake Basins, Beijing: Science Press. Zhang, W., S. Wang, H. Ji and H. Kolbe (2004), ‘Estimation of agricultural non- point source pollution in China and the alleviating strategies I: estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China in early 21 century’, Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 37(7), 1008–17. Zhang, Y. (2009), ‘Prevention and control of livestock pollution using ecological treatment mode: farm household biogas digesters in Nanjing, Fujian Province’, Master’s thesis, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.


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6. Land degradation in the arid Jeffara Region, Tunisia Mongi Sghaier, Abdeladhim Mohamed Arbi, Jean-Philippe Tonneau, Nadia Ounalli, Houcine Jeder and Muriel Bonin PROBLEM DESCRIPTION Environmental threats and the progressive degradation of natural resources are considered critical for the sustainable development of Tunisia. The World Bank (Sarraf et al., 2004) estimated the annual costs of natural resources degradation at 2.7 per cent of GDP. Natural resource degradation results in a decrease in the land productivity that affects the socio-economic situation of the population. In fact, land degradation causes a failure of the balance of demand and supply of ecosystem services in dry land, and long- term land degradation processes lead to desertification. Desertification is defined by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification as ‘land degradation in arid, semiarid and dry subhumid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities’. Desertification-related processes such as reduction of vegetation cover increase the formation of sand dunes. These, in turn, affect cloud formation and rainfall patterns, the global carbon cycle, and plant and animal biodiversity. Droughts and loss of land productivity are predominant factors inducing the movement of people from drylands to other areas (MEDD, 2006a). As mentioned by the National Action Plan (NAP) for combating desertification of Tunisia, land vulnerable to desertification is estimated at 83 per cent of the whole country. In the southern region of Tunisia this ratio reaches 85 per cent (MEAT, 1998). The Jeffara region is a geographic area located in the south-east of Tunisia, which partially covers three governorates, Medenine, Tataouine and Gabes, characterized by desertification and land degradation. The Oum Zessar watershed is regarded as a hotspot in Jeffara and the Medenine governorate. The Medenine governorate (Figure 6.1) was selected as a typical case study area representative of land degradation in the Jeffara 89


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Source: Adapted from Office de Développement du Sud (ODS) (2008)

Figure 6.1 Location of Medenine governorate region. The area of the Medenine governorate covers 916 707 ha which includes an agriculture area of 834 800 ha, representing almost 91 per cent of the total. Water balance deficit persists for all months of the year, and the vegetation cover is fragile, depending on climate variation. Due to increasing human needs and agricultural development, the pressure on natural resources, mainly land, is becoming very high. This causes land degradation, a significant decrease of yield and a great fragility of soil and vegetation cover. Sedentarization and accelerated land privatization, and government subsidizing of new agriculture activities, irrigation of


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Jeffara Region, Tunisia case study 91

crops and olive plantation, among other factors, have caused land fragmentation and increasing pressure on the land. These pressures are driven by an increase in human consumption related to population increase, modified lifestyles, and financial investments often dependent upon external sources. Based on this context, the more traditional spatio-temporal agrarian system which has previously governed access to natural resources has disappeared and has been replaced by a system characterized by competition for natural resources, and in particular land and water. Intensified use of the water resources in the case study area has, during the last two decades, contributed to the gradual transformation of the steppic landscape. In addition to tree planting on the privatized rangeland, the irrigated area has been augmented around the shallow wells and boreholes. However, this development is currently facing several problems: depletion of scarce naturally available water sources, lowering the artesian water levels, and the overexploitation of groundwater and deep groundwater. Many problems constrain socio-economic development in the Medenine governorate: aridity, land degradation, water and soil salinity, pronounced desertification (54 per cent of land is very sensitive to erosion), poorly equipped farmers, the lack of employment outside agriculture, extension of anarchic cultivation, lack of modernization and loss of traditional irrigation methods, and several others. Hence sustainable development is threatened by the mismatch between human needs (employment, income, energy, grazing, and so on) and resource mobilization (inside the territory) required in order to ensure the sustainable management of productive capital and environmental protection. This area is of socio-economic and geopolitical interest as it has profited from various programmes of development, notably the integrated rural development programmes, and the regional programme of development. In spite of the implementation of several land use policies, however, the impact of these interventions is not clear, and objectives have not been met.

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM Historical Context In the Medenine governorate desertification is a fairly recent phenomenon. Historically this governorate has been occupied by diverse civilizations. The Roman ruins, distributed throughout all regions, the olives dating from the Roman period which are in abundance in the island of Jerba, and the water and soil conservation works in the mountains of Matmata (Beni-Khedache region) all reflect the antiquity of human presence in


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the governorate. The city-port Jiktis (Boughrara) was one of many that exported products from the region to Rome. The land use changes induced by socio-economic transformations can be subdivided in two main periods. The first is the nomadic period, which lasted from the Hilali invasion until the late nineteenth century. In this period tribes occupied the plains located between the mountains and the coast, and practised ranching based on transhumance, while the mountain tribes and those of Jerba were sedentary. The pastoral economy was dominant in the region. This system was precarious, but it was well adapted to arid conditions due to the mobility of tribes and the absence of barriers to movement of man and herds, because of the balance between the potential productivity of the land and the needs of the population. From the end of the nineteenth century, profound changes in spatial organization, land use and natural resource exploitation have been observed. The contemporary period, beginning in the twentieth century and still continuing, has been marked by the implementation of a very ambitious policy of settling the nomadic tribes so as to facilitate their control. To this end, the French colonial authorities started privatization of land and the introduction of monetary exchange. At the same time, the region faced the emergence of new towns and agricultural markets (Medenine, Ben Guerdane) as well as the development of arboriculture (Jorf and Zarzis regions) to make the region attractive for nomads, who gradually began to engage in activities based on monetary exchange. In short, this period was characterized by the demarcation of land, and the reduction of transhumance and nomadism, the beginnings of agriculture extension, and the development of a semi-nomadic way of life, linked to land ownership and intensive land use (Bourbouze, 2003; Elloumi, 2006). The irrigated agricultural area was developed during the last decade in Medenine governorate for two main reasons: first, to minimize the climate variation risk related to the rain-fed agriculture, and, second, to identify new activities with a significant value added. Social Context Administratively, the province of Medenine is divided into nine districts, seven municipalities, 94 local territories or ‘imada’1 and seven rural councils. The multiplicity of administrative divisions is due mainly to demographic growth and the policy of decentralization. In fact, the different administrative divisions play a central role in implementing the land use policies, by participating in the land use policy framework for the province, providing leadership in management and resolving complex conflicts of interest.


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The population of the Medenine governorate increased from 220 123 inhabitants in 1975 to 432 503 inhabitants in 2004 (INS, 2006). The annual population growth rate, declining since the 1970s, was 3.3 per cent during the decade 1972–81 and 2.7 per cent during the 1982–91 decade. Currently it is almost 1.2 per cent (MEDD, 2006b). The Medenine governorate has become marked by a predominance of urban population. Indeed, the urbanization rate was 61.8 per cent in 1994 and reached 77.1 per cent in 2004 (INS, 2005). An analysis of the changing age structure of the local population shows that in general the population is young. However, this situation is changing; the age group of 0–14 years showed a relative decline from 44.8 per cent in 1966 to 33.9 per cent in 2000, and is projected to be 27.2 per cent in the year 2015 (INS, 2005); while 15–60 the age group substantially expanded, to exceed 50 per cent in 1994, reach 57.5 per cent in 2000, and will be almost 65 per cent in 2015. The working population of Medenine Governorate has increased from 64 800 in 1984 (with 81.9 per cent of the assets owned by males) to 97 559 active in 2004. Agriculture and fishing occupied 26.5 per cent of the workforce in 1994, but currently account for only 14.1 per cent of jobs. In contrast, the services sector share registered an increase from 33.9 per cent in 1994 to 49.7 per cent in 2005. The unemployment rate in the Medenine governorate (10.3 per cent) is among the lowest in the country. (The unemployment rate in Tunisia as a whole was 15 per cent in 2004.) The poverty rate is 1.3 per cent, which is far below the national average (almost 4.2 per cent). Concerning living conditions: infrastructure indicators show that the provision of drinking water is 95.4 per cent and of electricity is 96 per cent. The road network (1424 km of paved roads and 3554 km of unpaved roads) is also well developed (ODS, 2008). Economic Context Tourism is the foremost economic activity in the Medenine governorate. The region has over 123 hotel units with a total capacity of 45 100 beds and more than 6.5 million overnight stays per year, mainly in Djerba and Zarzis. Djerba is the main tourist destination in Tunisia, which enjoys an international reputation, providing quality tourism products. In addition to the tourism sector, the area has a large agricultural potential based mainly on tree cultivation, breeding and fishing activities. Indeed, trees occupy 82 per cent of the area, totalling approximately 185 600 hectares, including 164 000 hectares of olive. With an annual production of 5000 tonnes, the Medenine governorate ranks as the third largest producer of olives in the country.


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Farming remains a vital activity; the region has over 481 500 head of goats and sheep and more than 600 000 poultry. The production of red meat is estimated at 6000 tonnes/year. With a coastline over 400 km long (about 30 per cent of the coast of the country), the governorate of Medenine is a major region for fish supply, with an annual average catch of 13 000 tonnes (MEDD, 2006a). The sector of organic agriculture and the potential development of aromatic and medicinal plants are among the profitable activities not yet sufficiently exploited. In total, the agriculture sector in Medenine governorate has an annual income that exceeds 120 million Tunisian dinars (USD 89 million)2 and provides employment to one fifth of the working population. The governorate has an industrial sector comprised of 85 companies (of more than 10 employees), of which seven are solely for export. These industrial units operate mainly in the food processing and materials construction sectors, as well as textiles and clothing. The region also has 44 companies (of more than 10 employees) with foreign capital, working mainly in the tourism sector, industry and services. Environmental Context The Medenine governorate is an arid zone with an annual average temperature of 22° C, July having the highest temperatures (29.9° C) and January the lowest (10.6° C). Annual precipitation does not exceed 200 mm, largely concentrated in mid-October and mid-November. Winds from the east/ north-east are cold and wet, being frequent in the winter. Winds from the south-east, called ‘Chili’ or ‘Guebli’ are hot and frequent in summer. These winds increase the evapo-transpiration (ETP) and soil erosion. The minimum value of the ETP is generally in December and the maximum in July. Though very disadvantaged in terms of climate, the region has significant potential for groundwater that has facilitated the development of a number of economic activities in an environment marked by high rainfall deficit. The water resources of the Jeffara consist of a complex hydrological system with strong complementarity between variable surface water and more or less renewable groundwater. The region includes five deep aquifers of varying quality, and several levels vertically interconnected. These aquifers are generally over-exploited. These are the Mio-Pliocene aquifer of Jeffara (fed largely by the Continental interclaire aquifers from the fault of El Hamma), the Zeuss-koutine aquifers (divided into two aquifers: Jurassic and Lower Senonian), the Triassic sandstone aquifer, and finally the Jurassic aquifers of béni-Khedache (Ouessar et al., 2003). The groundwater is formed by the coastal aquifers (Quaternary Mio-Pliocene of Jeffara) and other less important aquifers


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related to watersheds in coastal areas (Ouessar et al., 2003). The chemical quality of groundwater is generally quite good. However, most of these aquifers, mainly used for irrigated agriculture, are now over-exploited, with negative consequences for the quality and level of water resources. In addition, groundwater flows are related to rainfall and runoff, which limits their potential volumes. The complementarity between different types of water resources (surface and groundwater) has been enhanced for the last ten years by the government mobilization strategy and water and soil conservation policy; for example, more than 300 hydraulic structures contributing to the Zeuss-koutine aquifers’ recharge were built on Oum Zessar, Zeuss and Om-Tamar watersheds (Yahyaoui et al., 2002). The water salinity in the Jeffara aquifers oscillates between 1 g/l (Triassic sandstone) and 7 g/l (Mio-Pliocene aquifer) and the exploitation rate reaches 86 per cent (Triassic sandstone). The region has a dense river network, built around five main wadis (Zegzaou, Oum Zessar, Zeuss, Sidi Makhlouf and El Morra) that drain rainwater to the sea in the Gulf of Gabes or to areas of sabkha (salt flats). Despite their limited volumes, the rainwater and runoff are very important for domestic use and non-irrigated agricultural production systems. Intensification of water use in the Jeffara region during the 1990s contributed to the gradual transformation of the steppic landscape. In addition to tree planting on the privatized rangeland, the irrigated area has increased around the shallow wells and boreholes. However, this development is currently facing several problems: depletion of scarce natural sources, lowering of the artesian water levels, and the overexploitation of groundwater and deep groundwater. In the Jeffara region the vegetation cover constitutes a fundamental element of the ecosystems operating, and provides significant support for human activities. This vegetation displays a remarkable characteristic of edaphic adaptation but is very much influenced by anthropic pressures. The vegetation cover at the piedmonts and the plain have a steppe-like aspect, except in the valleys and the depressions, where nanophanérophytes (Ziziphus lotus, Lycium arabicum) are scattered. The wadis and rivers which cross these plains form rich vegetation types with different biogeographic origins. In the Béni Khédache Mountains the vegetation is sparse and very often monotonous; the types include garrigues3 and areas of degraded forests. Several forms of land degradation can be mentioned in the governorate of Medenine. Water erosion is the most prevalent despite the very marked aridity of the region. Water erosion affects approximately 82 per cent of governorate land (MEDD, 2006b). Particularly serious erosion (affecting 3 per cent of land) appears at the Oum Zessar watershed level (20 per cent


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Legend City Road gp 1

El Grine

Mediterranean Sea Cereal Olive on Jessour Olive on Tabia Halophites in the Saline Depression Rangelands in the Mountains El Kosha

Rangelands on Plains

Sidi Maklouf

Oum Zessar Watershed

Caïkha Chguima

Métarneur Mednine

Menzlet Moggor

El Bhayra

10000

Meters

El Modhar

Source: Adapted from Hanafi and Belgacem (2006).

Figure 6.2 Land use map in Oum Zessar watershed, 2006 of watershed) (see Figure 6.2). Wind erosion results from the effect of wind on the sandy formations. The use of non-appropriate tillage techniques and overgrazing has contributed to this process. Wind erosion affects about 18 per cent of the territory. Institutional and Policy Context In Tunisia, since independence, several rural development policies have been adopted to consolidate state authority and to promote socio- economic development. The rural development policies were characterized mainly by a top-down approach and extensive use of scarce natural


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resources. The principal constraints on these policies were the increasing costs for the public sector and the degradation of natural resources. All these constraints led to the adoption of a new, local and participatory, form of land use governance. The adoption of a structural adjustment programme and the liberalization of the economy induced a profound transformation in state intervention patterns and a strengthened role of local organizations in natural resource management and development activities. Different types of formal and informal associations at local level have the task of managing natural resources such as irrigation and drinking water (Grouping of Agriculture Development; GAD), water and soil conservation, and forest resources management. Coordination between all these institutions is the responsibility of the Regional Administration of Agriculture Development called CRDA. There is a development council at the regional level. Each delegation has a local development council and many rural types of council related to the different economic sectors. These councils offer advice, and are composed of local elected and civil society representatives. The land privatization process was conducted through a management council under the governor. Among the tasks managed by the regional council was the land privatization process (MEDD, 2006a). Land use policies in Tunisia include resource-oriented policies, such as the land privatization policy, (implemented in 1964), and the Agriculture Development Strategy and territorial policies such as the rural development programme which has been implemented since the 1990s. Since independence three periods related to the policies implemented can be identified. 1950–1970: an extensive use of natural resources, but a relatively low pressure on the environment characterized this period, in which both people and herds were mobile. This stage was accompanied by low intervention of the State. The most important policy was the agrarian reform which started during the 1960s. The agrarian reform concerns mainly the public irrigated areas and was intended to reduce land fragmentation. The aim was to create viable farms with optimal sizes adapted to new technical developments. The new forms of agricultural exploitation were to ensure efficient irrigation water use, and better execution of the crop rotation plan, and as a consequence enhance agricultural productivity. But the agrarian reforms faced many problems, including opposition from landowners, and these reforms were abolished during the late 1960s. 1970–1990: this period was characterized by a huge agrarian transformation through a rapid expansion of rainfed agriculture by conversion of natural rangelands. The model of development was characterized by the mobilization of natural resources and the development of industrial activities using the agricultural surplus. The intervention of the Tunisian


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government was important, supporting many development programmes (infrastructure, health, education, and so on). From 1986, the Tunisian government started a very important Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) supported by the World Bank. 1990–2010: this period is characterized by the implementation of natural resource management strategies. The aim has been to increase the efficiency of natural resource use and to alleviate the high pressure on these natural resources. The ‘Rural organizations promotion policy’ aims to solve problems of divergence and conflict between different actors involved in natural resources, and hence promote local sustainable development. Institutional reforms and regulatory issues have been put in place to empower these organizations to ensure good local governance (Elloumi, 2006). This policy has encouraged the emergence of a set of local institutions that aims to represent local people in development and natural resource management. Like the rest of Tunisia, the governorate of Medenine has a local institutional framework that covers all activities (industrial, agricultural and tourism sectors) and manages the natural resources.

CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS The following causal chain analysis follows the DPSIR approach as described in the analytical framework in Chapter 4. Drivers The main underlying drivers that were identified in the case study area are: natural population growth, economic growth, and climate change (see Figure 6.3). Natural population growth is related to a high fertility rate, which has exerted pressure on the natural resources. Since adopting a family planning policy in 1966, however, the natural population growth rate has been decreasing. Economic development also increases the pressure on natural resources. The urban activities and the tourism sector have increased water consumption since 1990, and the huge development of tourism infrastructure in Djerba, with more than 100 hotels, has been greatly increasing the demand for water. Climate change leads to irregular and low rainfall, the shortening of rainfall duration and rising temperature. All these climatic changes have a major impact on water availability and on agricultural production, particularly in vulnerable areas. The proximate drivers relate to human activities, and reflect individual


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Jeffara Region, Tunisia case study 99 Underlying drivers: natural population growth, economic growth, climate change, technological

D

Policies: privatization of collective land, agriculture development strategy, rural development programme

development, globalization Proximate drivers: Migration, agricultural intensification

P

Over-exploitation of water and soil resources, overgrazing, intensification of agriculture

Indicators

Rainfed agriculture and livestock:

S

Irrigated agriculture:

Grazing area, soil erosion, cultivated

Soil erosion, cultivate area, labour, land

area, water availability, labour, land

allocation to strategic production, yield

allocation to staple crops, producers,

per crop, water consumption,

surplus, consumer surplus, yield/crop,

chemical fertilized uses, manure,

animal feeds, economic efficiency,

farm income agriculture production

farm income, agriculture input prices.

prices, water pricing, agriculture input prices.


Land use functions:

I

Environmental: Abiotic resources, biotic resources, Economic: economic production, physical production, infrastructure Social: provision of work, human health, food security

Policy options

Water and soil conservation strategies

R

o Increase of management areas by water and soil conservation techniques Saving water and irrigation encouragement policies o Water pricing in irrigated perimeters (increase of irrigation water pricing) and subsidies for saving water

Figure 6.3 DPSIR framework of the case study in Tunisia or societal needs. The main proximate drivers identified in the Jeffara region are migration from rural into urban areas, and agricultural intensification. The former is largely driven by unemployment and low social conditions. The agriculture intensification in the Medenine region takes


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many specific forms including fertilization, irrigation and mechanization. The aim of the agriculture intensification has been to increase production, to meet the growing demand for food. Land use policies as drivers Since 1990 several policies related to natural resource management and the modernization of the agriculture have been implemented. The objective of these policies was to reduce the pressure exerted on the natural resources, mainly land and water, and access to the resources was indeed reduced by several instruments (economic instruments such as water pricing, and legal instruments). Also, the privatization of collective land, in order to integrate this land into the market and to increase agricultural and economic production, has been an important driver in Tunisia. Land tenure has changed from collective range land to private land ownership. A land title allows the provision of subsidies and credits that are supposed to transform agriculture into a profitable and commercially oriented activity. In practice, however, because of many factors, such as absence of land title, absence of rural credit institutions, and farmers being ‘unaccustomed’ to make use of credit, the provision of credit has remained low. These changes are occurring in a context of economic liberalization and rapid integration of the national economy into the global economy, for example through agreements with the WTO and EU. The policy changes related to globalization have affected natural resources and land use in the case study. As an example, the increase of agricultural prices related to the liberalization in the international market during the last period has influenced the production system in the region. Breeding activities decreased, and farmers preferred other agricultural activities such as irrigated crops and arboriculture. Technological development, mainly water extracting techniques, irrigation techniques, water and soil conservation and ploughing techniques, put strong pressure on natural resources. Pressure Pressure on land resources in the Jeffara region is mainly due to the agriculture sector. There is excessive water consumption for irrigation, as irrigated crops consume a great quantity of water, and the efficiency of irrigation is low. Also, there is excessive use of chemical and organic fertilizers. Some other pressures can be identified, such as overgrazing, and intensive and mechanical ploughing of vulnerable soils. Due to this, there is overexploitation of water and soil resources, overgrazing and intensification of the agricultural production system.


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Table 6.1 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimensions. Sustainable development pillar


LUF Indicator

ENV 1 ENV 2 ENV 3 ECO 1 ECO 2 ECO 3 SOC 1 SOC 2 SOC 3

Provision of abiotic resources Provision of biotic resources Maintenance of ecosystem processes Industry and services Land-based production Provision of infrastructure Provision of work Quality of life (health) Cultural heritage

Water availability Biodiversity Natural land Regional investments Farm income Road network Employment rate Life expectancy Traditional techniques

Source: Sghaier et al. (2009)

State The province of Medenine and especially the Jeffara region, is characterized by low water availability, low irrigation efficiency, water and soil salinity, and soil erosion. The degradation of natural resources has reduced agricultural productivity and farm income. Table 6.1 shows the main indicators used to describe and analyse the state related to both rainfed agricultural and livestock systems and irrigated agriculture. Impacts Impacts are the changes in the state that determine the quality of ecosystems and human welfare. Several impacts related to the economic, environmental and social dimensions may be identified. The economic impact The land use policies described have had an important impact on the regional economy. The land privatization policies hamper the extensive breeding activities and hence negatively affect farmers’ incomes; and the water pricing policies increase the cost borne by the local farmers. But some positive impacts of land use policies can be mentioned in this context, mainly the new agriculture land provided by water and soil management works that enhance the local farmers’ incomes. In addition, by motivating the farmers to choose crops with high value-added, and irrigation methods that reduce water consumption, the new water pricing has improved the farm efficiency.


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The environmental impact Following the land privatization policies, an important dynamic of tree plantation has been apparent in the old rangelands. According to the CRDA estimates, the number of olive trees reached 4 million, with 2 million other fruit trees in the Medenine governorate. The increased exploitation of marginal land has had negative repercussions on the water and soil resources; the excessive use of water in the irrigated perimeters causes soil salinity. The transformation of livestock production practices caused the decline and degradation of pastoral lands. The study on desertification in Jeffara that was conducted jointly by the IRA and the IRD in 2003 (Génin et al., 2006), demonstrated the dynamics of the natural environment during the period 1972–2001 and showed that the impact of agriculture on nature is very high. The study showed a significant decrease of 36 per cent in the pure steppe area, and an increase of crop land by 200 per cent betweeen 1972 and 2001. It also showed a high degradation in the vegetation growing on soils favourable to cultivation (steppe), which have been replaced by species with a low pastoral value. During this period a new breeding system developed that is both extensive and semi-sedentary. This mode causes localized overgrazing around villages because of the limited movement of herds. The grazing lands in Medenine governorate have reached 626 815 ha, representing 10 per cent of the national pastoral area. These pastures are characterized by low recovery rates, ranging from 15 to 60 per cent, and generally low production levels (20 to 40 Forage Units (FU)/ha/year).4 In a year of average rainfall (120 to 140 mm), the production is about 30 million FU, leaving a deficit of 107 million FU across the governorate. This gap is filled by feedstuff bought on the market. The continued pressure on the rangelands induced by the effect of overgrazing degrades both the quality and quantity of these environments. The replacement of the traditional plough by the dethatcher proved catastrophic for the natural vegetation cover and the physical environment. But mechanization has increased the productivity of labour, according to some studies, to 40 times higher than in the case of animal traction; mechanization has also facilitated exploitation of new lands. The social impact In the mountains (Oum Zessar watershed), because of the great rural exodus, the maintenance and repair of hydro-agricultural works (jessours) is not regularly undertaken, and the heavy rain causes extensive damage. In the plain, where migration was important, agricultural activity has now become part-time work, representing about 20 per cent of family income. The workforce is often made up of women, children and the elderly. The


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money transfers resulting from the migration will play a leading role in changing the land use mode in the Medenine governorate. This money has been invested in urbanization, the purchase and cultivation of new lands, intensive livestock and the use of mechanization. Response The main policies assessed in this case study were water and soil conservation measures and irrigation policies that are implemented through subsidies and low water prices. These policies can be classified as ‘resource- oriented policies’.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES The dynamics of Tunisian society and the efforts made to promote economic development and environmental preservation are contributing to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), but the question as to how to combine the use of natural resources with environmental conservation remains to be answered. This requires an in-depth understanding of the linkages between land use policies and sustainable development. SD Objectives in Medenine Case Study Tunisia has made considerable progress in achieving the MDGs and is set to meet the majority of the national targets by 2015. Progress has been made on poverty alleviation, universal primary education and infant mortality. However, the Tunisian government has acknowledged that progress at the national level is not always matched at sub-regional level, and disparities remain. The first MDG report (United Nations, 2004) indicates that while some regions in Tunisia have made remarkable strides in development, others are still lagging behind. The Medenine governorate has some comparative advantages: soils suitable for cultivation of crops, experience with irrigation and tree plantation projects, available infrastructure, the presence of non-agricultural employment, low unemployment, and large areas of private lands. However, several constraints hamper the development of this region, including the limited and poor quality water resources, soil degradation, and agricultural land abandoned by farmers due to its low productivity. The environmental dimension remains a challenge, which needs to be reconciled with economic and social dimensions.


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Selected Policies to Promote Sustainable Development Several policies, including land use policies, have been implemented to alleviate the pressure exerted on natural resources, and ameliorate the socio-economic situation of the local population. These policies can be divided into two groups, namely ‘resource-oriented policies’, and ‘territorial policies’. Water and soil conservation strategies (WSC) in Tunisia Since the 1980s ‘Water and Soil Conservation’ (WSC) actions have been implemented. The objectives include the protection of arable land against erosion; control of surface water extraction and use; enhancement of land utilization through the construction of jessours5 and tabias,6 and consolidation by arboriculture and forest plantations; replenishment of groundwater; and protection of dwellings and infrastructure against floods. The socio-economic objectives are limitation of rural migration; improvement of living conditions of the population; development of the most disadvantaged zones; and reduction of disparity between regions. The general development objectives aim to gradually commit farmers to take responsibility for water and soil conservation, and adopt anti-erosion practices in their farming techniques; to adapt installations of WSC according to the characteristics of the farms, and to encourage the creation of private companies specialized in the realization of work on water and soil conservation. The WSC national strategy includes actions to improve basin slopes, agro-pastoral installations, and the maintenance, safeguarding and amelioration of surface water harvesting techniques. On the Medenine governorate level the strategy includes the management of several watersheds (50 000 ha), maintenance and safeguarding of 83 000 ha and the creation of 300 water harvesting works. Subsidy policy and water pricing Since the ‘Water Code’ (1975), the legislative framework concerning the rationalization of water management and promotion of private investment has been revised several times. The primary objectives of the 1995 water saving programme were to improve the efficiency of irrigation systems in the field, increase the benefits of water use, and balance water demand and supply. Modern techniques are encouraged by investment subsidies of up to 60 per cent. In 2001, the rates were halved when renewing the same equipment, with encouragement for large farmers. The water pricing system in the Public Irrigation Perimeters (PIP) varies in its structure and methods of application according to the


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different expected objectives: ‘valorization’, intensification, cost recovery. Broadly, PIP is managed by the CRDA (Regional Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture in Tunisia) and volumetric pricing is by far the most widely applied method for pricing. A contractual price is applied per hectare. As a result of the subsidizing policy and water pricing, the regular increase of the water price allowed almost total recovery of operating and maintenance water exploitation costs in the public irrigated areas; at the national level 80 per cent of the Grouping of Agriculture Development (GAD) has attained full cost recovery. In fact the water price increase has caused a change in the agriculture production system; farmers now cultivate more crops that require less water. Furthermore, drip irrigation increased from 3 per cent before 1995 to nearly 21 per cent of irrigated area. The total efficiency of the irrigation has improved by 25 per cent. Nevertheless, the efforts regarding water saving did not significantly reduce water consumption.

INDICATOR DISCUSSION An important step in sustainability impact assessment is the selection of indicators. According to the LUPIS indicators framework a balanced set of indicators linked to nine land use function (LUFs) (three per dimension: economic, social and environmental) are identified (Table 6.1). Environmental Dimension The land use determines the abiotic resources available, especially water and soil resources, and may preserve biotic resources such as the different species (biodiversity) of the arid region (rosemary, thyme, and so on). Another role of land use is regulation of the ecosystems in the region to maintain specific agricultural products (for example, olives). Three indicators representing the environmental dimension are crucial: the indicator water availability (LUF 1) provides information on the accessibility of water in this dryland area; it is assumed that water availability is related to the level of adoption of Water and Soil Conservation (WSC) techniques. Adopted WSC techniques leads to less runoff water loss and increase water availability. Biodiversity (LUF 2) is a proxy of the preservation and use of (agro)biodiversity and hence also the contribution to food security and ecosystem stabililty. A high level of biodiversity is believed to be associated with adopted WSC techniques. The vegetation cover increases, and the natural species recolonize areas with WSC management. The total area


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of natural lands (LUF 3) is an indication of the functioning of ecosystem processes in the area. Adopted WSC techniques reduce the rangeland area demand in the upstream watershed, and may thus influence the total area of natural land. Economic Dimension The economic dimension involves land used for industry; for agricultural production, such as breeding, crop irrigation, fruit tree plantations and cereal crop production; and land used for tourism and other service activities. The different economic dimensions can be represented by the following three indicators. Regional investment (LUF 4) measures the level of investment and the level of activities in the area. WSC sites create more services and more opportunities to develop small agro-industries. The extension of agricultural land by the WSC work, however, can negatively affect the industry and service sector by reducing the area available. Farm income (LUF5) is selected to measure the impact of WSC techniques, and the impact of the subsidy policy and water pricing policy on production and income. WSC techniques contribute to groundwater recharge, allowing both irrigated and rainfed crops and more productive agriculture and hence higher income. The road network indicator measures the length of roads (in kilometres) protected from erosion, because in the mountainous regions the degradation of roads can disrupt agricultural activities. Social Dimension Land in the Medenine governorate provides occasional or permanent employment for the rural population, especially during the olive harvesting period. Human health is also related to land use (water and soil pollution). Finally, land secures a supply of food to the local population. More specifically three indicators can be representative of the social dimension: the indicator Employment (LUF 7) measures the employment level; the WSC works and the subsidizing and water pricing policy increase employment for local people and indirectly generate new agricultural activities (planting olive trees in particular). The Quality of life and life expectancy indicator measures the degree to which the adopted WSC techniques and the subsidizing and water pricing policy indirectly enhance life expectancy by improving agriculture yields. However, there is a difference in the socio-economic condition between the farmers upstream and farmers downstream in the Oum Zessar watershed, which may be attributed to adopted WSC techniques upstream, which reduce downstream water flow


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and thus negatively affect the Sebkha area. Traditional techniques such as the jessour continue to be used by local populations to manage the water and soil resources more efficiently.

CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL REMARKS The Medenine governorate provides a case study area that is representative of land degradation in the whole of Tunisia. The causal analysis undertaken using the DPSIR framework in the Tunisia study shows that, in very broad terms, the underlying dynamic is that of economic and population growth leading to increasing pressure on a fragile natural environment. In socio-economic terms, indicators such as poverty alleviation and education, selected jointly by researchers and stakeholders in the national policy forums, provide evidence of considerable improvement in recent years, while the environmental dimension of sustainable development gives a much more negative picture. But the more detailed analysis, supplemented by inputs from stakeholder workshops, reveals a more complex picture, in which the role of government policies, differentiated according to the policy typology in Chapter 13, has been crucial. Accelerated land privatization and agricultural subsidies, among other factors, have caused land fragmentation and increasing pressure on the land. External factors, notably financial investment from abroad, have also played a part. In brief, the more traditional agrarian system has disappeared and been replaced by a system characterized by competition for natural resources, and in particular land and water use. This study has focused particularly on two important policies: water and soil conservation activities, and pricing policies to encourage more efficient use of irrigation water. By comparison with some of the other cases included in this book, the capacity of the government to implement such policies effectively is relatively strong. But the environmental challenge in Medenine, and in Tunisia as a whole, is likely to increase, making still greater demands on the government to design and implement measures to achieve an appropriate balance between the economic, environmental and social dimensions of sustainable development.

NOTES 1. The imada is the smallest administrative unit in Tunisia. 2. The conversion rate is around 1TD=USD 0.67. 3. Specific vegetation of Mediterranean regions.


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4. Forage Unit (FU) is equivalent to 1 kg of barley. 5. Traditional water harvesting techniques in south-east of Tunisia (small dam). 6. Modern water harvesting techniques.

REFERENCES Bourbouze, A. (2003), ‘Enjeux et débats sur la réorganisation des espaces pastoraux du sud méditerranéen: de l’influence du melk, du camion, de l’orge, du marché et des kbir’, in proceedings of conference ‘Organisation spatiale et gestion des ressources et des territoires ruraux’, CIRAD, Montpellier, 25–27 February. Elloumi, M. (2006), ‘Les politiques de développement rural en Tunisie: acquis et perspectives’, Options Méditerranéennes, Paris. Génin, D., H. Guillaume, M. Ouessar, A. Ouled Belgacem, B. Romagny, M. Sghaier and H. Taâmallah (eds) (2006), Entre Désertification et Développement: La Jeffara Tunisienne, Tunis: Cérès Editions. Hanafi, A. and O. Belgacem (2006), ‘Les formations végétales et l’impact de l’emprise agricole sur leur dynamique’, in D. Genin et al. (eds), Entre Désertification et Développement: La Jeffara Tunisienne, Tunis: Cérès Editions, pp. 57–67. Institut National des Statistiques (INS) (2005), ‘Recensement de la population 2004’, Tunis, accessed at www.ins.nat.tn. Institut National des Statistiques (INS) (2006), ‘Annuaire statistique de la Tunisie’. Ministère du Développement et de la Coopération Internationale, no. 49, Tunis, accessed at www.ins.nat.tn. Ministère de l’Environnement et de l’Aménagement du Territoire (MEAT) (1998), ‘Plan d’action national de lute contre la désertification’, Tunis. Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable (MEDD) (2006a), ‘Troisième rapport national sur la mise en œuvre de la convention des Nations Unies sur la lutte contre la désertification dans les pays gravement touchés par la sècheresse et/ou la désertification, en particulier en Afrique’, Tunis, accessed at www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/. Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable (MEDD) (2006b), ‘Programme d’action régional de lutte contre la désertification (PARLCD) de Médenine’, Tunis, accessed at www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/. Office de Développement du Sud (ODS) (2008), ‘Le gouvernorat de Médenine en chiffres’, Tunis. Ouessar, M., H. Taâmallah, M. Labiadh, H. Dhaou, N. Mekrazi, H. Ben Kehia, N. Mahdhi, H. Yahyaoui and M. Boufelgha (2003), ‘Ressources en eau et en sols et évaluation des techniques actuelles de lutte contre la désertification’, Rapport Scientifique Final de l’Equipe du Thème 4 du Programme ‘Jeffara’, Tunis: IRD–IRA. Sarraf, M., B. Larsen and M. Owaygen (2004), ‘Cost of environmental degradation: the case of Lebanon and Tunisia’, World Bank Environment Department paper no. 97, Washington, DC. Sghaier, M., M. A. Abdeladhim, N. Ounalli, H. Jeder, R. Bechir, J. P. Tonneau, J. Imbernon, H. König and J. Schuler (2009), ‘Rapport de l’atelier de travail sur l’application de l’approche FoPIA en Tunisie. Cas du bassin versant d’Oued


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Oum Zessar, Gouvernorat de Médenine’, Rapport de l’atelier FoPIA, 9–13 November, Institut des Régions Arides (LESOR/IRA), Médenine. United Nations (2004), ‘Tunisia: national report on Millennium Development Goals’, United Nations, accessed at www.undg.org/archive_docs/3665-Tunisia_ MDG_Report.doc. Yahyaoui, H., H. Chaieb and M. Ouessar (2002), ‘Impact des travaux de conservation des eaux et des sols sur la recharge de la nappe de Zeuss-Koutine’, TRMP paper, Wageningen, Netherlands: Wageningen University, pp. 71–86.


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7. Land degradation and irrigation practices in the Office du Niger, Mali Youssouf Cissé, Muriel Bonin, Ingrid Nesheim, Jean-Phillipe Tonneau and René Verburg PROBLEM DESCRIPTION Pastoral and agricultural areas are increasingly overlapping in the Sahel area, due to the intensification and spread of agricultural space (Lamprey and Reid, 2004; Meaux, 2004). In many cases the pastoral communities are being squeezed, with loss of grazing land for their herds leading to overgrazing and absence of vegetation cover. A large part of the East and West Africa Sahel region is affected by human-induced soil degradation due to such overexploitation of the natural resources (Oldeman et al., 1990). The case study area, the Office du Niger (ON) in Mali, provides an example of an increasingly more severe case of overlapping of pastoral and agricultural areas. The area presently produces more than 45 per cent of the national rice production, and is thus of major importance for food self- sufficiency in the country. This rice production, in an area which by nature can be characterized as semi-desert, has been made possible due to gravity irrigation from the Markala or Sansanding dam. By tradition, however, farmers in this area are agro-pastoralists and keep some animals (cattle, sheep and donkeys) for various purposes. The herd is viewed as an asset, a form of savings. Thus, a head of cattle may be extracted from this herd, sold, slaughtered or given away, to satisfy financial, social or cultural needs. But in parallel with the increasing trend of rice production, livestock numbers have been increasing too, despite the decreasing trend of pasture lands in this area. Recently people other than the traditional agro-pastoralists, including new farmers, merchants and civil servants, have been investing in livestock, as animal herds represent a means of investing and accruing capital (Tappan and McGahuey, 2007; Cissé, 2008). The area is thus characterized by an increasing trend in numbers of people and areas under rice production and by a decreasing trend in wood and pasture resources. In 110


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Office du Niger, the combination of expansion of lands for rice growing and the extensive breeding systems is proving increasingly difficult. The carrying capacity of land for animals at the Office du Niger has been exceeded, due to overgrazing, deforestation, and degradation of irrigation and drainage banks, while the excessive deforestation resulting from land development work for rice production is not being followed by a systematic reforestation.

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM Geographic and Historical Context The Office du Niger (ON), a public-owned enterprise, is one of the oldest sub-Saharan hydro-agricultural projects, developed in order to meet the increasing demand for rice nationally and in West Africa as a whole. The area presently irrigated is located in the ‘dead’ delta, so called because it lies outside the present annual flooding limits of the Niger River, whereas in the past it formed a lake watered by the ancient branches of the river, the so-called ‘falas’. The construction of the Markala dam started in 1932, and it was opened in 1947, raising the water level to approximately 5.5 m so that water can run by gravity into a complex hydraulic network composed of primary, secondary and tertiary canals. This network was initially planned to irrigate more than a potential 2 million hectares. The currently developed (cultivated) area covers only approximately 87 662 ha (in 2007) (Figure 7.1), while the potential irrigable rice land available today is estimated to be 250 000 ha (Office du Niger, 2003). As a consequence of this potential, this zone has an important economic as well as political value in West Africa. Lack of access to food, and its availability, is of central concern in Africa. In 2006/2007, paddy production in ON amounted to 496 735 tons, which is approximately 48 per cent of the national production and 52 per cent of the total demand for rice in Mali estimated at 864 536 tons of paddy. Thus, the paddy production of the Office du Niger can more than meet the need of producers in that locality. The government of Mali relies on rice production in the Office du Niger in order to meet the priority goal of food self-sufficiency at the national level and food security at the level of the sub-region of West Africa. This huge, ambitious project aims to make water available in sufficient quantity for irrigation purpose during all periods of the year. The Office du Niger area is located in the western part of the central delta of the Niger River between the township of Markala in the south and the village of Fouabougou in the north, and approximately 275 km from Bamako (the capital of Mali) and 35 km from the city of Ségou.


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Figure 7.1 The developed land of the Office du Niger Socio-economic Context The population living in the ON is primarily rural and a true melting-pot, including all the ethnic groups of Mali (Malinké, Bambara, Songhaï, Soninké, Sénoufo, Dogon, Bozo, Peul, Maure, Touareg), and also of some ethnic groups of the neighbouring country, Burkina Faso (former


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Upper Volta), mainly Mossis. The rate of growth of the population has been oscillating around 2.97 per cent per annum since 2002 and is largely due to immigration. In addition, the need for seasonal work related to rice production attracts each year several hundreds of seasonal workers (see also Vandersypen et al., 2008). Unemployment is very low at the Office du Niger, and labour shortages are frequent during certain periods of weeding and harvesting operations, which are very demanding in labour inputs. In relation to the total area of the zone which is more than 1 million km², the population density is 21.91 inhabitants per km². However, the non-developed zones are mostly uninhabited. In 2007 the population of the Office du Niger area was estimated at 417 851 inhabitants, including 214 658 men and 203 193 women, living in 253 villages. Between 1999 and 2008, the number of families which have been officially assigned a piece of land increased from 20 000 to 49 000. Infant mortality remains high (nearly 108 children per 1000), as does the fertility rate (7.42 children per woman). Life expectancy at birth is estimated at 65.4 years according to official figures, but only 49 years according to the UNDP 2006 report on human development. Rice production is the main source of employment for many farmers, and a source of high expectation for subsistence and income generation for many incomers from other parts of the country and elsewhere. The area of the Office du Niger is occupied by agriculture (more than 90 per cent), with new land being developed mainly for rice cultivation, but some also for other crops for diversification purposes (shallot, tomato, corn, potatoes). Rice and vegetables provide food both for sale and for home consumption. Almost all the farmers in the study area are agro-pastoralists, that is they grow rice and vegetables and also keep some livestock. As noted above, livestock is totally integrated into the system of agricultural production and constitutes a means of saving for almost all the farmers. Livestock, mostly cattle, contributes to the farming system by supplying energy through the traction of plough and cart and also by providing animal manure to the farm. In 2002, the number of cattle was about 300 000 heads, including 43 000 draft oxen and 16 000 donkeys. After the harvest period, the transhumant herds migrate to rice-growing fields as sedentary herds. Animals are fed rice straws, and supply manure as fertilizer for rice production to complement chemical fertilizer which is expensive.1 Some categories of livestock – cows and small ruminants – are kept in the households throughout the year. Dairy cows provide households with milk for own consumption or for sale. Small ruminants, mostly sheep, are kept as savings. Small ruminants and any category of cow or bull can be sold at any time to meet some urgent need such as payment of school fees, or events such as weddings, baptisms and funeral ceremonies. Wood


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production for sale is not prioritized; this remains a secondary activity carried out during slack periods. Part of the cattle herd is entrusted to Fulani herders, or put in the care of a member of the household. Two main types of farmer may now be distinguished following the new policy of the Malian state to attract relatively big private investors into the area: there are those involved in family farming, and private investors. The family farmers outnumber the others by far, and have farms varying from 0.25 to 15 ha. This wide range in farm size is explained by land subdivision between the heirs in the event of the farmer’s death. Some of these farmers have very little technical means and are strongly indebted, and thus have difficulties in accessing quality inputs. The vast majority of these producers are involved in several other activities. The private investors, on the other hand, have acreages varying from 30 to 50 ha based on an ordinary lease or long lease type of contract. They are fewer in number; however, since the liberalization of the rice trade and the opportunity to get access to land at the Office du Niger, this group is increasing. The objective of these farmers is to run the farm as a profitable business by using improved processing equipment to obtain good quality rice produced locally to compete with the imported rice. According to the operating statement, profits related to the farming activity average around CFA F 400 000 per hectare per season (USD844). Thus, provided that the farmers comply with the farming calendar and apply the technological package, they earn a profit margin which yields a high income. However, only a small part of this income is reinvested in farming activity, putting many farmers in a highly indebted state and in a situation of almost permanent precariousness (Cissé, 2008). There are currently heated debates between the small and medium sized family farmers who have been living in the Office du Niger area for many years, and the officials (Office du Niger and Government). These debates are related to the presence of small and medium farmers and large private farmers in the same area, the former claiming ownership of the land and rights to expansion in order to secure their livelihoods, and the latter coming in for profit making, thus more market oriented. Big private farmers can lease land for many years whereas small and medium farmers are not given this opportunity. Environmental Context The Office du Niger (ON) has a semi-arid climate, and the perimeters of ON are located in an area which, prior to the irrigation scheme, could be called a true human desert. The yearly rainfall varies from 300 to 600 mm and is concentrated in the July to September period. This climate type leads to three distinct seasons in the area: a rainy season, a cold dry season,


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and a hot dry season (also called off-season). Commentators agree that the Sahel has experienced several periods of drought during the last century: in 1913, at the beginning of the 1940s, and from the 1970s up to the present time. According to Brondeau (2002), this last long dry period involves a shortening of the rainy season and a persistent reduction in rainfall. This has resulted in a lasting degradation of the hydrological system of the Niger River on which the Office du Niger depends. Thus, for several years, very severe low water levels have been noticed along the mid and lower course of the river in the cold dry season. Natural forests exist mainly in the zone of Macina where five more protected forests are found, totalling approximately 25 000 ha: Kolongotomo (1300 ha), Sabali (3500 ha), Fy (8420 ha), Mio (nearly 10 000 ha) and Sessabougou (nearly 2000 ha). In addition to these forests, there are also village thickets and individual plantations. The forests are used to produce firewood and wood for buildings, and they are used as pasture lands for herds. The vegetation of the zone is of sahelian type with a predominance of thorn bushes of balanite type. Institutional and Policy Context Land in the Office du Niger area is state property, meaning that all land is leased, on short or long contracts, and land use needs to be formally registered. As registration procedures are still long and complex for the rural population, expropriation by the state remains possible for all the customary lands. However, since the advent of democracy in Mali, the people have several participatory mechanisms. They can now express their opinions within the framework of the various elections, and several activities have as part of the decentralization process been transferred to communities, closer to the people. The existence of hundreds of farmers’ organizations, associations, economic interest groups, and cooperatives is a good indicator of the dynamism of the area, but also of its strong politicization (see also Meaux, 2004). People have quite strong opinions regarding agricultural extensification and the scarce wood and pastoral resources. Within the Framework of Joint Management of the Office du Niger, joint committees of land management and maintenance funds have been instituted. The joint framework allows farmer appointed representatives to participate in land management issues and the management of funds accruing from the payment of water fees by farmers. Right of occupation in the Office du Niger area is granted on the condition that the applicant is capable of developing the land, through one of the following modes of tenure: annual ownership contract, ordinary lease (spanning 30 to 50 years), and long lease (more than 50 years). Under the annual ownership


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contract, the Office du Niger provides the water resource against the payment of a water fee by the beneficiary who carries out all the investment necessary to make the plot usable. Under the ordinary and long lease types of contract, the beneficiary uses the land improved by himself and pays a yearly rental fee on a regular basis. However, despite all this, there is no true or secure ownership right of land within the Office du Niger. A farmer can be evicted for reasons such as irregular farming, non- or ill-maintenance of the irrigation network, non-payment of water fees, or non-observance of rules and obligations. Three main laws regulate land use and agricultural development in ON, namely, the New public estate and land use code (no 0027 of 22 March 2000), the Laws on decentralization (No. 96-050, no. 95 034 AN-RM 04- 12-1995) and the Law of agricultural development guidelines (No. 06-045, 05-09-2006). The policy ‘Access to land ownership title’, a new provision on a trial basis related to the framework of the National Programme of Rural Infrastructures (PNIR) project financed by the World Bank, on the perimeters of Koumouna (Bewani), allows farmers or private investors who can bear the entire costs of development of secondary and tertiary networks to be granted land ownership. The applicants for land, in the framework of this policy, must provide information proving that they are qualified to carry out irrigated farming, and that they have the means necessary to develop and exploit their land. With this new approach, access to land is free for anyone, foreigners as well as Malian, provided they have the necessary resources to contribute to the financing of land planning and the development of the allotted land. Several policies have been implemented in the area in order to tackle environmental and land use rights issues, including: The Application of the Estate and Land Use Code, and Laws of decentralization, Forest resources laws (laws 95-003 and 95-004), Fauna resource laws (law 85-031) and Fishing resources law (law 95-052). These statutory texts define and divide the national domain into three types: state administered domains, domains of the decentralized territorial communities, and domains of private individuals. These laws also define the general principles of resource management and exploitation by expressing the measures of protection and preservation as well as modalities and conditions for exercising customary rights (clearing, hunting, fishing, marketing, and so on).

CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS The causal chain related to the situation in the Office du Niger is complex, consisting of many different actors and several factors and feedback


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Underlying drivers: economic growth, climate change, technological development Policies: land expansion and privatization policy,

D

Policy of investment Proximate drivers: immigration, agricultural intensification, subsidies

P

Over-exploitation of forested areas, overgrazing, intensification of agriculture

Indicators

Environmental: Irrigation water quality,

S

and availability, deforestation, quantity of wood extracted, wood deficit, quantity of pasture resources, proportion of

Economic:

Social:

Investments, Increase in

Employment rate,

developed areas; farm

immigration rates, life

income; number of

expectancy, poverty

livestock, milk production,

index, Gini index

road network

natural landscape


Land use functions:

I

Environmental: Abiotic resources, biotic resources, ecosystem processes Economic: Land-based production, Industries and services, Infrastructure Social : Livelihood, Quality of life, Cultural heritage

Policy options

R

Policy to promote sustainable pastoral livelihood Policy of compensatory wood management in irrigated areas

Figure 7.2 The DPSIR framework of the case study in Mali mechanisms. The understanding of this causal chain, however, is imperative for designing appropriate actions to mitigate the problems constraining sustainable development in the area. The analysis that follows is based on the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) framework (Figure 7.2).


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Drivers Underlying drivers The most important underlying drivers are economic growth and technology development. Economic growth is manifested especially through investments by the private sector in large-scale rice production to satisfy the demand for food. Technology development2 drives the improvement of rice lands and the adoption of rice transplanting techniques. It increases the outputs and has allowed a considerable reduction in the amounts of seed used. The underlying driver, climate change, on the other hand, brings about greater insecurity of water availability for irrigation. Will there be enough water for the new expanded land areas including the old ones? Proximate drivers Immigration is one main factor which has a great impact on population growth in ON. In the context of a Malian agriculture highly susceptible to climatic risks, the rice plantations of the Office du Niger, characterized by the control of water, appear as an ‘Eldorado’ which attracts hundreds of people each year, in search of plots of land. Another important driver is Agricultural intensification. Rice production is intensified due to the reduction in the size of allotted lands, and the adoption of new practices. In the 1960s, 10 ha were allocated to each farmer for rice production, while the allocated land area is currently 2 ha (Vandersypen et al., 2008). A number of practices leading to a more intensified agriculture include: the adoption of new varieties, which are virus resistant and appreciated by consumers; adoption of animal haulage; transplanting instead of sowing by manual broadcasting; and, chemical and organic fertilizer application. Land use policies as drivers Of prime interest is the Land expansion and privatisation policy, aiming to meet the increasing demand for rice until the year 2015 in Mali and in the sub-region3. This national and sub-regional food security policy is to be implemented through the expansion of lands for rice production in the Office du Niger. It is planned to develop at least 25 000 ha for agro- forestry using groundwater, and irrigated lands are planned to increase to 200 000 ha before the year 2020. The Office du Niger zone depends on the Niger River for its water supply, but the flow (45 billion m3 per annum in Ségou) is irregular. The strategic plan for the expansion in the Office du Niger Master Plan states that 120 000 ha of new irrigated land should be developed before 2015, and 200 000 ha before 2020, located in the vicinity


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of the existing primary irrigation canal. This expansion policy into new lands, adopted by the government of Mali, with the emergence of the so- called ‘big private farmers’, is viewed by many researchers and developers as a source of considerable risk if care is not taken to mitigate the possible undesirable impacts. The policy of investment encourages the involvement of the private sector which wishes to invest in processing facilities and in crop diversification, such as sunflower and jatrofa for the production of biofuels. Applicants for land, in the framework of this policy, must provide information proving that they are qualified to carry out irrigated farming and that they have the means necessary to develop and exploit their land. For the purpose of this trial policy, two types of farmer whose production objectives are different were established: those in family farming, and those in agro-business. It is planned to allot 3 ha each to the first group and 30 ha to the second group. Bilateral investment agreements: access to the Office du Niger irrigated zone has been opened up to the sub-regional states and CENSAD community members (Community of the Sahélo – Saharan States). Indeed, Senegal, a neighbouring country and member of CENSAD, applied for 25 000 ha for rice growing in the Office du Niger, and Libya has also signed a draft agreement for 100 000 ha of land with Office du Niger. The USA, through the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA), plans massive investments (122 billion FCFA) through an irrigation project in the zone called ‘Alatona’ with the Office du Niger. The MCA Mali component aims at increasing the area of land development, production diversification and intensification. According to the forecasts, MCA funds will make it possible to develop 15 000 hectares. They will be divided into 1800 farming plots. Once the site is developed, the total population will increase to about 75 000, living in 40 old and 40 new villages. These areas will be directly or indirectly involved in activities relating to irrigated farming. Pressure Land expansion for rice production through massive deforestation brings about scarcity of woods and pastures. Furthermore, immigration and an increased number of livestock exert ever-increasing pressure on the remaining pasture and woodlands in the area. State There has been a drastic reduction in the carrying capacity of pasture lands, and huge areas have been almost denuded of trees, a crucial source


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of wood for cooking. Water and soil pollution including salinization and alkalization have increased. On the other hand, education levels are increasing and the health situation is improving. Net Farm Income (NFI) is increasing, but the sustainability of, in particular, the smaller farm households depends upon their capacities to increase their paddy rice plots, either in number or in size. Impacts Socio-economic impacts For several years the Office du Niger has followed a development process which has resulted in improving access to some basic services. The education level is improving. There is a school in each village, and attendance at primary education and secondary level has reached 37 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. The adult literacy rate has reached 25 per cent. Regarding the health situation, the cities of Niono and Macina have their reference health centres, and each commune (the local administrative entity) has a communal health centre. With these achievements, the infant mortality rate has dropped considerably. Farm income has increased over the years due to the land development. However, there is a very uneven distribution of this income, mainly because of the differences in acreages. Under the influence of high demographic growth, the size of land allocated to individual families in the early period of the Office du Niger implementation has decreased during the last 20 years. Indeed, from 1978 to 1998, the number of beneficiaries was multiplied by three, increasing from approximately 5000 to 16 500, and during the same period the average land size by family decreased from 7.52 ha to 3.02 ha, according to the Area Development Plan of the Office du Niger in 2000. The subdivision of farm land has played a major part in the farmers’ precarious situation. It is estimated that nearly 50 per cent of the farmers are in this situation, and it is noted that farmers’ lack of equipment and their high level of indebtedness do not permit the recommended practices of intensification to be adopted, while in other zones, access to irrigation water is unreliable during the hot dry season when the level of water in the Niger River is low. This problem is partly explained by the bad state of irrigation infrastructures linking the dam to the rice production zones. Indeed, the current reduction of the size of plots under cultivation in the Office du Niger remains a major constraint. Socio-environmental impacts The use of land for rice growing has depleted the forest reserves, thus depriving the livestock of their pastures, and obliging the population to


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travel farther for firewood, as availability of wood and fodder is getting more and more difficult. Wood and fodder resources are now located 10 to 30 kilometres from villages, a distance people have to travel for only one cartload of firewood. According to ON agents, trees and fodder grass growing have not been prioritized; the clear top priority has always been land development for rice growing. Animal feeding has become more difficult because there is almost no fodder apart from crop wastes (rice straw). Thus the majority of the Office du Niger villages are surrounded by an area devoid of trees, which is expanding year after year (Brondeau, 2000). Even where the use of forests and village thickets is regulated, the forest resources of the zone are very degraded and threatened with disappearance. In 1998, the wood stock was estimated at 28 million cubic metres. It had shrunk by approximately 21 per cent in 11 years. Nouvellet and Sanogo (2002) estimate that the deadwood stock and the production of wood are constantly falling, and will no longer be enough to satisfy the demand for wood from 2010. Small mammals, reptiles and birds are very much endangered because their habitat keeps on shrinking due to this deforestation. Another problem is soil degradation caused by overgrazing, and monoculture of rice in agricultural areas. Outside the rice fields, overgrazing due to the reduced pasture lands has led to an absence of vegetation cover, leaving the soils sensitive to wind and water erosion, while in the agricultural fields, monoculture of rice, combined with a total absence of fallow, has resulted in progressive impoverishment of the land. This phenomenon has already been noticed in the perimeters of Macina, which are the oldest, a situation which is aggravated by the low level and poor qualities of chemical and organic fertilizations. In other parts of the Office du Niger area, soils are increasingly polluted due to the excessive use of chemical fertilizers applied by farmers. The poor drainage of water from the farming plots, and the lack of irrigation water in some other parts of these plots, brings about the phenomena of salinization and alkalization of the soils which have a negative effect on the rice yield through the degradation of the quality of soils (Bagayoko et al., 2007; Vandersypen et al., 2007). Supplied water is not efficiently utilized. Indeed, the irrigation network is in an advanced state of degradation, and the inappropriate practices of water distribution and unsuitable irrigation result in enormous water losses. Some studies estimate that less than half of the water taken from the river reaches the fields. The remainder is lost by evapo-transpiration, infiltration, and leakage from the channels. There is a lack of waste collection, and processing, and unprocessed wastes are disposed of only a few kilometres away from the villages. The


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traditional pit latrines, which are in some places less than 3 m deep, also contribute to the contamination of the groundwater. The only urban centre, the city of Niono, has no drainage or sewerage system and thus suffers from water and air pollution, and flood problems in the event of heavy rains. There is, throughout the area, a complete lack of safe drinking water. Pollution is thus related to agricultural, economic and domestic activities, and the adverse trend is increasing because, with the development of new land, more chemical fertilizers are used, more people come in and thus more domestic and commercial activities are undertaken. This situation brings about many environmental problems and many conflicts among farmers, while at the same time the means and regulations to limit their harmful effects are not yet entirely in place.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES The main concern in this case study is sustainability issues related to the land expansion policy for rice cultivation, in the light of other land use activities in the area such as the management of pastures and pasture lands. In particular, the cutting down of trees and clearing the land for rice cultivation, and the lack of replacement of these trees through a reforestation programme, is a major environmental problem. Sustainable Development Objectives in the Office du Niger The environmental targets focus on regenerating forest vegetation in the area and restoring the pastoral zone. Another similarly important environmental target is to maintain the irrigation networks and soil fertility in the area. The economic targets aim to increase farm household income, increase agricultural productivity, and reduce the income gap between pastoralists and farmers. The social targets include: improving basic social infrastructure, such as education facilities and health clinics, providing employment, and raising general standards of living. There is also an aim to reduce conflicts among pastoralists and farmers. Selected Policies to Promote Sustainable Development The selection of policies to promote sustainable development was performed based on discussions in two national policy forums. The policies


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selected aim at sustainable pastoral and farmer livelihoods in the Office du Niger. In other words, the policies aim at bringing about the optimal use of land resources among the different types of actors in the area. Two specific policies were discussed: a policy to promote sustainable pastoral livelihoods by developing pasture lands in non-irrigated areas and by an animal fattening programme; and a wood management policy. These two policies are further described below. Policy to promote sustainable pastoral livelihood This policy will promote a sustainable pastoral livelihood through promoting the development of land devoted to pastures in non-irrigated areas, and by animal fattening. The policy will involve subsidizing the opening of temporary water points and making these into permanent water points. This will enable the herdsmen to use the pastures available in the non-irrigated areas, where the availability of drinking water for animals is the main constraint. When water is permanently available through deep wells, livestock can be maintained in these areas to prevent them moving into the irrigated areas before the harvesting period, which can create many conflicts between farmers and herdsmen. Animal fattening is a way of producing good quality meat by keeping a number of animals (unproductive oxen, young bulls not necessary for reproductive purposes, and so on) close to the household, providing them with feeds of high protein, nutrient and energy content. The fattened animals can then be sold to generate income, and the herd can be managed in a rational way by reducing its size through the removal of unproductive or unnecessary heads. ‘Soft’ incentives are given, requesting farmers in irrigated areas to allocate 25 per cent of their rice plot to the production of off- season fodder crops. The farmers will keep only the number of tropical livestock units (TLU) which they can take care of by using these fodder products from the rice fields for milk production and for fattening, while the rest of the herd is taken to pasture lands under the control of a herdsman. Manure from the fattening animals can be used to improve soil fertility. These actions have the potential to increase agro-pastoral income and agro-pastoral productivity, and improve the general standards of living of the agro-pastoralists. Concerns, however, are related to the size of the herds and impacts of the herds on non-irrigated pastoral lands. To what degree will this policy help in maintaining the size of the herds at the same level? It is imperative that the size of the herds must be under control for this policy to be successful. The objective is to keep the herds at an optimal level that is below or just at the carrying capacity levels of the pasture lands and to avoid conflicts between farmers and livestock breeders during the cropping seasons.


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The policy of compensatory wood management in irrigated areas An area of 300 hectares of irrigated land in Office du Niger is available for tree planting. The wood produced will be distributed to the benefit of the inhabitants. At present, trees are scarce in the area, and people have to go far away to fetch wood (Brondeau, 2000). This policy will increase the provision of fodder and wood production areas, decrease deforestation and regenerate forest areas. The provision of wood will provide employment and increase general standards of living. The sustainability of wood management, however, depends on the existence of rural wood markets and rural wood management structures: but such rural wood markets are disappearing. It is argued that this situation is due to the weak capacity of villagers for the management of the so-called ‘Structure Rurale de Gestion du Bois’ (Rural Structure for Wood Management), the poor involvement of elected local representatives, and the lack of control over illegal exploitation. According to the stakeholders in this project, in the irrigated areas land resources are scarce for activities other than rice production. In addition, local banks have been reluctant to give funding to private stakeholders interested in tree plantations. This is partly because of the lack of long-term ownership over lands, and partly because of the nature of the activity itself: trees do not grow fast enough to enable banks to be reimbursed in the short or medium term. Recently, however, it was agreed by the Office du Niger development authorities that a long lease up to 30 years (renewable) could be granted to private stakeholders for tree plantations on the non-irrigated or upland areas, with the obligation to dig wells for irrigation purposes, promoting tree planting.

INDICATOR DISCUSSION Eight land use functions related to the three dimensions of sustainable development, along with 18 selected indicators have been selected to measure and evaluate the impact of the land use policies presented (Table 7.1). The indicators have mainly been selected related to the land use sectors present in the area, namely agro-pastoralism and rice production. Environmental Dimension The land use function ‘provision of biotic resources’is central in measuring sustainability in this area, as forests are being removed for the expansion of the lands for rice. The rate of deforestation indicator will provide a measurement of the extent that natural resources are being degraded in the area, as well as the degree that the policy of compensatory wood


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Table 7.1 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimensions Sustainable development pillar


LUF Indicator

ENV 1

Provision of abiotic resources Provision of biotic resources

Irrigation water quality, irrigation water availability Deforestation, quantity of wood extracted, wood deficit, quantity of pasture resources Proportion of natural landscape

ENV 2 ENV 3 ECO 1 ECO 2 ECO 3 SOC 1 SOC 2

Maintenance of ecosystem processes Industry and services Land-based production Provision of infrastructure Livelihood Quality of life

Investments Increase in developed areas; farm income; number of livestock, milk production Road network Employment rate, immigration rates Life expectancy, poverty index, Gini index

management will be effective in providing for tree planting. The indicators quantity of wood extracted and wood deficit will provide information on the population pressure on the wood resources. The land use function ‘provision of abiotic resources’ and the related indicators, irrigation water quality and irrigation water availability have been chosen because of the decreasing rice yields due to the phenomena of excessive alkalinization and salinization, and because of irregularity of water. Indeed, chemical fertilizers are used on the plots which, in many areas, are poorly drained because of the degraded state of the drainage canals. These problems bring about the degradation of the soils with a direct consequence on the rice yields (decreasing trend). The land use function ‘maintenance of ecosystem processes’ and the indicator proportion of natural landscape reflects the capacity of vital processes such as the hydrological cycle and the nutrient cycle in the study area. Economic Dimension The land use function ‘industry and services’ and the indicator investment will provide information on the degree that money has been invested, in particular by large private actors – national and international – in this area


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to develop new land for rice agriculture. The land use function‘land-based production’ will measure the performance of economic growth in the area. The indicators, farm income, and milk production are intended to measure improvement of farm income, and more specifically the degree that the temporary water points and the fattening programme, part of the policy to promote pastoral livelihood, will be efficient in providing for more healthy livestock and good quality meat. The indicator number of livestock measures the degree that there is rational management of the livestock herds. The land use function ‘provision of infrastructure’ and the indicator road network will inform about the degree to which infrastructure is being developed, along with the immigration rate and the land investment. Social Dimension The social land use function ‘livelihood’ and in particular the indicator immigration rate will provide information about the degree of continuing population increase and hence the need for still more available land and water resources. This indicator will furthermore show the conflict potential that may be expected if the immigration rate is high. Bringing many people with different interests, cultures and living styles into the same area is likely to create conflict situations regarding the use of the limited resources. The land use function ‘quality of life’ and the indicators, poverty index, life expectancy and the Gini index will measure the degree to which the investment in the Office du Niger area is benefiting all the inhabitants, and also the degree that the policy to promote sustainable pastoral livelihood will lead to improved quality of life for the pastoralists.

CONCLUSION The Office du Niger located in the western part of the central delta of the Niger River has been developed for irrigation agriculture and provides more than 45 per cent of the national rice production. The area is of major importance for food self-sufficiency in the country. This land development in an area which, from nature, can be characterized as semi-desert has been driving a range of different changes with impacts on sustainable development. The area is at present precariously balanced with regard to sustainable development, with the possibility of on one hand continued economic growth, but also, on the other hand, the possibility of continued land degradation, increased conflict levels, and reduced economic equity. The population in the area is characterized as agro-pastoralists with varying degrees of rice farming.


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The rice plantations of the Office du Niger appear as an Eldorado attracting hundreds of people each year in search of plots of land and employment. Economic growth is manifested especially through investments in large-scale rice production to satisfy the demand for food, but also by improved access to some basic services, such as education facilities and health centres. The rice production has enabled farmers to earn a high income, provided that they comply with the farming calendar and apply the recommended technological package. However, the population growth rate is high, leading to competition for land and resources, and the area is presently characterized by an increasing number of unduly small rice plots, and by a decreasing trend in wood and pasture resources. Overgrazing due to the reduced pasture lands has led to an absence of vegetation cover, leaving the soils sensitive to wind and water erosion. The policy focus in the area has been to develop the area to become the rice granary of West Africa to enhance food security. There are plans to expand the irrigated lands up to 200 000 ha before the year 2020, and introduced policies to encourage the involvement of the private sector, both national and foreign, to invest in the area. Less emphasis, however, has been paid to the side-effects of the irrigation scheme. The use of land for rice has depleted the forest reserves, but there have been few initiatives to reforest in the area. Basic livelihood needs, trees and fodder grass have not been one of the top priorities. There is an urgent need to analyse the various factors present in order to understand the current situation and the potential future scenarios related to the land expansion. Current debates concern the presence of small and medium farmers and large private farmers in the same area – the former claiming ownership of the land and rights to expansion in order to secure their livelihoods, and the latter coming in for profit making. Stakeholders and decision-makers have contributed to the understanding of this very complex causal chain, influenced by various agendas of policy makers and international actors, and the commodity market. Interactive sessions of experts, decision-makers and stakeholders to understand the linkage between the driving forces, the actors and the impacts, has furthermore been an important foundation to discuss potential policy actions to improve sustainable development in the area.

NOTES 1. The manure is estimated at about 38 000 tons in the Office du Niger production zones (Niono, Molodo, N’débougou and Kourouma), yielding about 1063 tons of urea. This represents about 18 per cent of the urea needs of the farmers, and a value of CFA 267 m.1 (USD564 000). 2. Although both economic growth and technological development are listed as drivers,


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these are not mutually independent. Economic growth (generally) leads to technological development, and vice versa. It should also be noted that the GDP of a country or region may increase, while GDP per head does not increase (or even falls) – simply because of population growth. In this case, although it may be accurate to state that economic growth is a driver (since the aggregate level of economic activity increases) it should be noted that livelihoods are not improved in economic terms. 3. The principles behind these two policies, Access to land ownership policy and the Land expansion and privatization policy are similar, but the two policies differ in their magnitude. The Access to land ownership policy allows farmers or private investors to be granted land ownership in an experimental area (Koumouna) financed by the World Bank, while the Land expansion and privatization policy has an ambitious plan for new irrigated lands (200 000 ha).

REFERENCES Bagayoko, M., M.K. N’Diaye, M. Dicko and B. Tangara (2007), ‘Characterisation of soil degradation under intensive rice production in Office du Niger zone of Mali’, in (A. Bationo, B. Waswa, J. Kihara and J. Kimetu (eds), Advances in Integrated Soil Fertility Management in Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges and Opportunities, Springer, pp. 133–8. Brondeau, F. (2000), ‘Macina forestry resources and wood supply for the Office of Niger (Mali). Cahiers Agricultures, 9(6), 485–503. Brondeau, F. (2002), ‘Men and landscapes. An island of prosperity in a Sahelian area in “Office du Niger” rice loft of Mali’, Paris: Karthala. Cissé, Y. (2008), ‘Synthèse des travaux du forum LUPIS’, Bamako, Moli: Institut d´Economie Rurale (IER). Lamprey, R.H. and R.S. Reid (2004), ‘Expansion of human settlement in Kenya’s Maasai Mara: what future for pastoralism and wildlife?’, Journal of Biogeography, 31(6), 997–1032. Meaux, S. (2004), ‘Aménagement hydraulique et conflits agropastoraux. Analyse spatio-temporelle en zone Office du Niger (Mali)’, Cahiers Agricultures, 13, 495–503. Nouvellet, Y. and N. Sanogo (2002), ‘L’approvisionnement en bois. Un capital forestier menacé’, in L’Office du Niger, Grenier à Riz du Mali, Karthala, Paris: pp. 177–88. Office du Niger (2003), ‘Master plan of the Office du Niger zone’, study of the master development plan for the zone of the office du Niger 2004 [Etude du Schéma Directeur d’ Amenagement de I’ON, 2004]. Office du Niger (2010), ‘The developed land of the Office du Niger (map)’ study of the master development plan for the zone of the office du Niger 2004 [Etude du Schéma Directeur d’ Amenagement de I’ON, 2004]. Oldeman, L.R., R.T.A. Hakeling and W.G. Sombroek (1990), ‘World map of the status of human induced soil degradation: an explanatory note. Global assessment of soil degradation’, ISRIC and UNEP in cooperation with the Winand Staring Centre, ISSS, FAO and ITC. Tappan, G. and M. McGahuey (2007), ‘Tracking environmental dynamics and agricultural intensification in southern Mali’, Agricultural Systems, 94(1), 38–51. Vandersypen, K., A.C.T. Keita, B. Coulibaly, D. Raes and J.Y. Jamin (2007),


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‘Drainage problems in the rice schemes of the Office du Niger (Mali) in relation to water management’, Agricultural Water Management, 89(1–2), 153–60. Vandersypen, K., L. Bastiaens, A. Traore, B. Diakon, D. Raes and. J.Y. Jamin (2008), ‘Farmers’ motivation for collective action in irrigation: a statistical approach applied to the Office du Niger in Mali’, Irrigation and Drainage, 57(2), 139–50.


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8. Pressure on land in the Yogyakarta Region, Indonesia Nina Novira, Syarifah Aini Dalimunthe, Nur Indah Sari Dewi, Triana Sefti Rahayu, Aditya Pandu Wicaksono, Hannes König and Johannes Schuler PROBLEM DESCRIPTION Indonesia is facing a major problem concerning land conversion. Forests are to a large degree being converted to plantations, and agricultural fields are being converted to settlements and business areas. Although Indonesia’s target for the 7th Millennium Development Goal (MDG) ‘Ensure environmental sustainability’ is to regain these lost resources, the efforts have not yet been successful (Bappenas, 2007). The Yogyakarta Special Region (Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, or DIY) is among the fastest-growing provinces in Indonesia. The rapid economic growth, the high standards of education services and the images of DIY as a good and convenient place to live, have attracted more and more people to migrate into the area; on the other hand, migration has been the motor for a fast-growing economy. In DIY, urbanization is the main driver of land conversion from agricultural use to residential and business use. The rapid urbanization and migration into the area have become threats to both the environmental and the social dimensions of sustainable development. There has been a tremendous decrease in water availability in DIY, and a lack of waste management is causing the water to be polluted. With regard to the social dimension, a high immigration of socially well-off people is causing conflicts with the local residents (Faturohman et al., 2004). Furthermore, land conversion is reducing agricultural land in DIY. The expansion of the urban area is being achieved by converting agricultural land, which can be observed from spatial records (Marwasta, 2010). According to Agus and Irawan’s findings (2006), Java has lost 107 482 ha of fertile agricultural land each year in the period from 1999 to 2002, while the conversion rate in DIY is 185 ha/year. There is a low 130


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awareness among the people and the government of the multifunctionality of agriculture, which serves to provide environmental, socio-cultural, flood mitigation, employment, and food security functions (Agus and Manikmas, 2003; Agus and Irawan, 2006). Agus and Irawan (2006) argue that in order to be self-sufficient in food, Indonesia must restrict its agricultural land conversion rate to less than 29 000 ha/year, and replace each hectare of land converted to non-agricultural use by 2.2 ha of newly developed agricultural fields. However, it appears that this is an almost impossible task. As a response to the reduced agricultural land area, production is intensified by applying more and more fertilizers, an action which damages the ecosystem through in-situ pollution in the field, and ex- situ pollution as the fertilizer is washed away to streams. Land conversion and inappropriate land use planning increase the extent of degraded land, leading in turn to more frequent floods and landslides. The population growth has led to an increased demand for land, speeding up the land use changes. Land scarcity within the city has led to changes of land use in the surrounding area; agricultural land on the outskirts of the city has been converted into settlements and used for the development of infrastructure. In order to control land use change, several policies are in place. However, lack of implementation is leading to ineffective policies (Iqbal and Budi, 2008). Land is obtained by buying from landowners willing to sell at a profitable price, then houses and business complexes are built. This has resulted in an uncontrolled sprawl of housing development (Subanu, 2008). Developers of housing and business areas acquire land without a spatial pattern or plan. The local master plan on the scale of 1:5000 used as a reference basis for granting development permits is generally not detailed enough as a guideline, hence the permit- granting officials often use their own interpretation to decide whether to issue a permit grant. The low level of enforcement aggravates the problem, resulting in a less effective land use planning master plan (Subanu, 2008).

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM The Yogyakarta Special Region (DIY) is located on the island of Java and has one municipality (Yogyakarta Municipality) and four regencies: Bantul, Sleman, Kulon Progo and Gunungkidul (see Figure 8.1). Each regency has its own cultural and historical value, as is apparent from the number and diversity of archaeological sites in almost all regencies (heritage sites or temples). DIY holds several titles, including the City of Struggle and the City of Culture; it is also known as the city of education, which is linked to the abundance of higher educational institutions in DIY.


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Source: Adapted from Digital Indonesian Earth Surface Map (1998)

Figure 8.1 The case study area in Yogyakarta, Indonesia Environmental Context DIY is located in a volcanic, hilly landscape on the tip of the Eurasian tectonic plate within the subduction zone with the Australian plate; hence Java, and DIY, is generally prone to earthquakes. Gunung Merapi, as one of the most active volcanoes on earth, puts DIY at a high risk of damage from volcanic eruptions. Sleman Regency is situated in the northern part of DIY on the foothills of the volcano Gunung Merapi. The regency mainly has a volcanic landscape and the surroundings of the volcano are frequently threatened by earthquakes and eruptions (Charbonnier and Gertisser 2008; Lavigne et al. 2000). However, the area also provides some important hydrological functions and serves as a groundwater recharge area. The area designated in 2004 as Merapi National Park is partly located in this Regency and its dense forests have long been the ‘green lungs’ of DIY. Yogyakarta Bantul Regency is located in the southern region, on a fluvio-volcanic plain, and is rich in groundwater. Kulon Progo Regency is in the western region, mainly in a hilly landscape with average to high soil fertility and average water availability in the lower hills, and low water availability in the upper


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region. Gunung Kidul Regency, in the eastern region, is the driest regency in DIY. It has a mainly karst landscape with many underground rivers. Average rainfall in DIY is 1897 mm/year. Indonesia is blessed with high precipitation, huge groundwater storage, a dense river network, and other surface water resources; however, these resources are poorly managed and rivers are polluted. Previously, two large springs supplied water for DIY, but now the Umbul Lanang spring has dried up and the discharge of the Umbul Wadon Spring is decreasing (Dwi Hartono, 2005). Nowadays, very little of the river water qualifies as a source of drinking water. In order to increase agricultural production, intensification is carried out through use of fertilizers. Excessive use of fertilizer poses threats not only to soils, but also to rivers and groundwater. These environmental problems are worsened by the low awareness of the people concerning an environmentally-friendly lifestyle. Domestic waste water is not treated sufficiently, posing further threats to the river and groundwater. Social Context The population censuses from 1971, 1980, 1990 and 2000, and population data for the years 2001 to 2004 show that although the absolute population of DIY continues to grow, the natural growth rate has shown a decreasing trend over the course of the last 20 years. The natural population growth rate of DIY was lower than 1 per cent in the periods of 1961–1971 and 2000–2005 (BPS, various years); and future population growth in DIY is projected to be decreasing. The population in the 15–34 age group years is projected to fall, while the population in the age group of 35 years and above is increasing. This shows that the population is ageing. Keasberry (2002) stated that among Indonesian regions, DIY is leading in terms of its ageing population. On the national level, the urbanization rate in Indonesia was low in the period from 1970 to early 1980 (Evers, 2007). In DIY, urbanization has been rapid during the last 20 years (Marwasta, 2010). DIY’s population is 3 434 534, with an average density of 1079 persons per km2, and 61 per cent of the population live in urban areas (Badan Pusat Statistik, 2008). According to Dhanani (2004), unemployment in DIY ranges between 3–4 per cent, which is below the national average of 5.7 per cent. DIY’s urban morphology has changed in recent decades. The urban area of DIY increased dramatically, from 15.5 km2 in 1970 to more than four times this figure, 63.5 km2, in 2000 (Marwasta, 2010). Urbanization of DIY is mainly developing towards the northern areas (Sleman regency), which are closer to the mountainous area of Merapi, with a cooler micro climate


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than in any other part of the region. Sleman is also more prosperous, with a better infrastructure, making this a more convenient place to live. Other likely pull factors are the various well-known universities located in this regency. Economic Context DIY is the second largest tourist destination after Bali. Various kinds of tourism schemes were developed in this region, such as nature, history, culture and education. This is why hotel business plays quite an important role in DIY, besides other tourist activities such as souvenir shops, speciality restaurants, and tourism packages for DIY and the surroundings. DIY’s reputation as a student city is associated with the history and the role of this city as the centre of education in Indonesia. The variety of educational institutions at all levels in this province have attracted many students to come from all over Indonesia; it is no exaggeration to refer to DIY as a miniature Indonesia. This has created another type of business. Student hostels or boarding houses have become a very interesting investment. And, in order to fulfil students’ needs, so-called student restaurants and shops also play an important role in the area surrounding these lodgings. University and college surroundings are filled with student- related businesses, such as copy centres, print shops, computer rental, Internet shops, computer shops and groceries. These sectors are seen as a very promising investment in DIY. Students are the most important consumer group since their contribution to the economy of DIY is quite significant. Their contribution to the local economy is higher than the total government revenue of the DIY province, including four regencies and the municipality (Sawabi, 2008). According to a survey by the Bank of Indonesia, college students in Yogyakarta contribute to the revenue of the regional GDP as much as USD327 000, or 17.11 per cent of DIY’s GDP (Amin, 2008). Institutional and Policy Context There is a lack of coordination among policy makers, which reduces the effective implementation of policies in the region. There are several government institutions which have different interests in land use such as Bappeda (Planning Agency), Department of Public Works, Department of Forestry, and Department of Agriculture. Among the various policies whose purpose is to restrict the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses, the Minister of Agriculture


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Decree No. 06, Year 1988, about Agricultural Intensification aims to promote higher agricultural productivity without expanding agricultural land, through a fertilizer subsidy. However, although this policy may restrict land conversion, extensive use of fertilizer damages the soil. The Sustainable Rice Field Act (Act No. 41, Year 2009) is a policy at the national level to be implemented by provincial and local governments; it seeks to devise appropriate technical instruments based on national- level policy. Legislation and economic instruments are adapted by the provincial government to interpret the national Act in the form of Perda (Provincial Regulations). Incentives and disincentives are used to implement the policy, and television and newspapers promote the policy in a more interactive way. The policy is established to protect national food security through proper management and decision-making. The Act defines the role of communities and public participation in managing natural resources (community-based management), but conflicts related to landowner interest may occur. The Spatial Planning Act (PERDA DIY No. 5, Year 1992) of DIY is a policy at the provincial level, designating land use for a period of ten years. This policy recommends appropriate land use for various parcels of land, specified in a grand master plan map at a scale of 1:5000. Future development is expected to follow these recommendations. Revisions, to allow for improvement or inappropriate implementation, are made every five years. This policy is ratified by Yogyakarta Municipality with Mayor’s Regulation (PERWAL) Yogyakarta No. 49, Year 2008 on Land Use Designation Permission and Sleman District Head of Regency Regulation (PERBUP) Sleman No. 8, Year 2009 on Land Conversion Indices. These regulations require that a permit for land conversion be obtained, and a tariff paid (for areas over 100 m2 in Yogyakarta Municipality, and 600 m2 in Sleman Regency). The tariff is calculated based on the following formula:

CT = CI × LP × LA

Where, CT: Conversion Tariff (Rp.) CI: Conversion Index LP: Land Price (Rp.), calculated based NJOP (Tax Object Selling Price) LA: Area of land to be converted (m2) In practice, this instrument does not act as a very effective deterrent to land conversion; both because the tariff is too low to discourage sale, and because control over the granting of permits in accordance with the Master Plan is weak.


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CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS As explained previously, Yogyakarta Special Province (DIY) is facing a great problem concerning changes in land use, linked to the urbanization and conversion of agricultural land into settlements and business areas. The following presents a causal chain analysis of the various factors and processes present in DIY (Figure 8.2). Drivers Underlying drivers The main underlying driving force is the attraction of DIY as a location: its image as a good and cheap place to live, and as a centre of education of high standard. The positive image of DIY involves, among others, a high life expectancy and an assumed lower cost of living, though records have shown that the cost of living is longer that low compared to average living costs in Indonesia. Furthermore, the rapid economic growth in DIY is important as economics has become a common reason to migrate to DIY. The high level of students migrating to the area has made the area attractive to investors, inducing economic growth in DIY. This economic growth attracts even more investment. Increased road infrastructure is another underlying driver, as roads promote economic activity, in the sense that they encourage the development of shops or other economic- related buildings along the roadside. Proximate driving force The proximate driving force in this context is the migration of people from outside into DIY, who either live in DIY permanently or have a second house. While DIY’s natural population growth is below 1 per cent, the main factor contributing to population growth in DIY is migration (Kartikasari, 2007; Faturochman, 2008). Policies as drivers The Regional Agency of Cooperation and Investment (BPKD) of Yogyakarta Special Province (DIY) has formulated a vision: ‘As facilitators of the promotion and the development of investment for competitive and strong regional economic structure in order to create an independent society’ in line with the vision of the National Agency of Cooperation and Investment (BKPM) and DIY government development target (BPKD Badan Pengelolaan Keuangan dan Kekayaan Daerah, 2009). There are three regulations supporting the programme; Decree of BPKM No. 57, Year 2004 on National Investment Procedure, which simplifies procedures


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Underlying drivers: Economic growth, image of Yogyakarta, education and cultural facilities, infrastructure

Policies: investment facility

D Proximate drivers: Immigration

P

Land use change (expansion of urban areas)

Indicators

S

Economic:

Environmental:

Social:

GDP non-agricultural sector,

water availability,

employment,

total agricultural land,

total protected area,

life expectancy,

road infrastructure

water quality

comparison between rice production and rice consumption


Land use functions:

I

Economic: residential, non-land based activities, land-based production, infrastructure Environmental: abiotic services, biotic services, maintenance of ecosystem processes Social: Provision of work, human health, food security

Policy options

R

Act no. 41/2009 on conservation of paddy field Perda DIY no. 5/1992 about Spatial Planning Act

Figure 8.2 DPSIR framework of the case study in Indonesia for investment; Decree of BPKM No. 70, Year 2004 on Capital Investment; Decree of BPKM No. 1/P/2008 on Business Initiation Permit, which ensures an uncomplicated bureaucracy to obtain a permit for new business. The programme of rural infrastructure development from the


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government, as addressed in Ministry of Society Welfare Decree No. 25, Year 2007, is mostly dedicated to building roads, which, by increasing accessibility to remote places in rural areas, are considered to be one of the driving factors in development. Pressure The main pressure in the case study is urbanization and land use change from agricultural to urban land. State There is an increased population mainly due to immigration, leading to urbanization in the area and expansion into agricultural land. Water pollution is high due to untreated sewage and an increased use of fertilizers. Water availability is also low, due to excessive use (drying up of springs) and less rain water percolation to the ground (deeper water table). Urban air quality is low due to the increasing number of motor vehicles. Impact DIY, especially the Sleman Regency, is among the very fastest-growing provinces in Indonesia. As a result of urbanization, there is significant growth in the economy. Unfortunately, this growth leads to land use change, mainly from agricultural land to residential and/or business use. Land conversion from agricultural land to non-agricultural land has caused a decrease in the share of agriculture in the GDP of DIY, by 7 per cent in the period 2000–2007. At the same time, the importance of service and trade hotels and restaurant sectors increased by 4 per cent (1999–2007) and 3 per cent (1996–2007) respectively. Construction, which nearly stopped due to the late 1990s’ crisis, is re-emerging, showing that the urban areas of DIY are continuing to expand. As Figure 8.3 shows, the East Asian financial crisis caused a dramatic fall in the construction sector in DIY, and a relative increase in the agricultural sector, at the turn of the century. Until 2007, agricultural land on average decreased by about 126 ha/year. This number then rapidly increased to 185 ha/year (Badan Pusat Statistik, 2008). The agricultural lands located close to the city with good access and infrastructure have become an important target for land conversion (Iqbal and Sumaryanto, 2007). There has been a substantial increase in land prices. The high land price is a side-effect of the increasing population in DIY, which increases the demand for land, while, on the other hand, available land is decreasing. In Sleman regency, in the northern part of DIY, the settlement area is


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Yogyakarta Region, Indonesia case study 139 25

20

15 Percent

Agriculture Construction Trade, hotels and restaurants Services

10

5

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Data from BPS, various years

Figure 8.3 The decreasing share of the agricultural sector in the GDP of DIY over time increasing rapidly along with the rapid land use change. In the southern part (Bantul regency, the second most developed regency after Sleman), rather rapid land use change into settlement is evident, since land prices are lower compared to the northern part, making this area the location where lower-income groups purchase property. The expanding education centres cause land prices to rise, and stimulate a market for trade and services. Land or property located in the neighbourhood of an education campus would command a higher price. The price in 1 km radius of Gadjah Mada University campus has risen 100-fold in just 20 years (Subanu, 2008). GDP is increasing each year, especially from the service and trade sectors; landowners can rent out their property or make use of it for their own businesses. When discussing the effects of urbanization, we can not leave out the environmental aspect. It appears that the rapid land use changes are responsible for decreasing and polluting the discharge of several springs, while the increasing population needs more water. The stress on water availability is increasing, especially with the conversion of recharge areas, and in particular in the most northern part of Sleman Regency. Less


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rainfall penetrates into the ground for the recharge of groundwater due to the change of land cover from vegetation to solid cover such as houses and roads (sealing). Together with the loss of springs, this can potentially lead to water availability problems, not only in Sleman Regency but also in the whole DIY area. As a result of land conversion, the water level in urban DIY is estimated to decrease by 40 cm/year (Adji et al., 2007). The Umbul Lanang spring located at the foot of Merapi disappeared around 2003 as a result of excessive use and deforestation, after having served DIY and its people with an abundance of water for centuries. Water supply is not yet endangered since there is one other big spring located nearby, called Umbul Wadon, but the discharge here is also decreasing. In June 2002, the measured discharge was 550 lt/s, while in May 2004 the discharge decreased to 406 lt/s (Dwi Hartono, 2005). Conversion from agricultural to non-agricultural land has also diminished the land’s water retention capacity, decreasing flood mitigation in the area (Agus and Manikmas, 2003; Agus and Irawan, 2006). The high migration to DIY is increasing the number of vehicles in DIY, both local and ‘migrant’ vehicles. (‘Migrant’ vehicles may be identified by their number plates, but it is hard to measure the number of vehicles coming from outside DIY, since such data is not available.) The impact of the increasing number of vehicles in DIY is the increasing air pollution from vehicle emissions. The increasing air pollution poses threats to human health and the environment. The so-called ‘green belt’ in DIY is decreasing year by year, converted into anything but green; not to mention the fertile agricultural fields which are being converted into residential and business areas. This could be one cause, beside global climate change, of the increasing air temperature in DIY over the past few years. The rapid land conversion is also threatening the livelihood of people dependent on agricultural activities, especially farm workers who do not own land. They are not easily absorbed by the emerging labour market in the urban area because they lack skills and find it difficult to adapt to an urban lifestyle.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES Sustainable Development Objectives in DIY Sustainable development targets of Yogyakarta Special Region (DIY) as mentioned in the Long Term (2005–2025) Development Plan (RPJP


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2005–2025) are divided into three dimensions: the economic dimension; the social dimension; and the environmental dimension. Economic dimension The main economic target is to achieve economic growth of a minimum 6.8 per cent from the priority sector, which is the agricultural sector. The Long Term Development Plan 2005–2025 of DIY (RPJP 2005–2025) aims to promote agriculture sector growth, in order to replace the property sector dominance of the economic activity. Besides the Long Term Development Plan (RPJP), the Act No. 41, Year 2009 on Sustainable Rice Field aims to maintain certain areas of agricultural land to be designated as sustainable rice fields in order to promote agricultural production and to improve farmers’ welfare. Social dimension The government is trying to manage the problem of unemployment by setting targets in the RPJP 2005–2025 to decrease unemployment rate to 3 per cent by 2025. Environmental dimension There is a low awareness of environmentally-friendly living. Most people are not aware of the impacts that may occur as a result of extensive land conversion. There is an aim to reduce deforestation by 60 per cent of the present rate by 2025 (RPJP 2005–2025). As in the rural area, the awareness of the environment is also low among the urban population. Green areas, the so-called ‘green belt’, in DIY are decreasing year by year. Reacting to this, the RPJP 2005–2025 has set a target to increase urban green space by 60 per cent relative to the present level, by 2025. Indonesia is blessed with high precipitation, huge groundwater storage, a dense river network, and other surface water resources. However, the water bodies are poorly managed, and few rivers qualify as a source of drinking water. An important target is the sustainable management of rivers and water consumption so as to improve water quality and availability (RPJP 2005–2025). Selected Policies to Promote Sustainable Development In order to control land use change, the government of DIY implemented two regulations: the PERDA DIY No. 5, year 1999, and Act No. 41, Year 2009. PERDA DIY No. 5 Year 1999 This is a local government regulation regulating land conversion, in particular from paddy fields to other functions. The supporting policy


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is PERDA No. 53, Year 2007, authorizing land use in DIY. There are two instruments: the first is a letter of permit and the second is a fiscal or conversion tariff. If the area is more than 500 m2, a letter of permit from the chief of BPN is required. For land with an area of more than 5000 m2, the permit must be issued by the mayor. The second instrument is fiscal: Chapter 3 Article No. 7, Verse 1 states that each person who proposes a land use conversion should be subjected to a land conversion tariff. The PERDA regulates the tariff that has to be paid to convert a certain area of land, either from irrigated to non-irrigated agricultural fields, or to settlement areas or to business areas. The extra cost to be paid as a land conversion tariff seems to have become an important consideration for developers to finally stop new conversion. Unfortunately this has brought a new pattern of land conversion: conversions in the Sleman Regency of areas less than 600 m2, which are not covered by this land conversion policy, are increasing. Small estates with several houses are growing, while the big developers target the Bantul Regency (where there is no such regulation), a regency which is located near to Yogyakarta’s city centre. New large settlements and business complexes are mushrooming in this area. Land prices in the Bantul area are increasing, encouraging landowners to sell their land, making land conversion in Bantul even more uncontrollable. The instruments mentioned have little effect since the land conversion tariff is far too low in comparison to the land’s market price and the profit the converter could get from the converted land. The little profit the farmers get is a strong driving force for selling the piece of land. But, even if this policy is not as effective as was expected, it shows the effort and concern of the government regarding the land conversion issue. Act No. 41, Year 2009 This regulation was launched by the national government to reduce conversion of agricultural lands. The Act was a reaction by the government to threats posed by land conversion to food self-sufficiency in the country. Protection of agricultural land is regarded as being of strategic importance in issues of food security, farmers’ welfare and poverty elimination. This Act aims to preserve a Sustainable Agriculture Land Reserve (Perlindungan Lahan Pertanian Pangan Berkelanjutan /PLP2B). Since this Act is quite new, most local governments have not yet applied the regulation; however, each local government has two years after the initiation of the Act to implement it in their area. The Sustainable Agriculture Land Reserve (Article No. 1, Chapter I, Act No. 41, 2009) classifies land as protected agricultural land, to be developed to support national food security. Article No. 30, Chapter V, aims to: (1) decrease land conversion


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from agriculture to non-agriculture; (2) add protected agricultural land; (3) ensure the sustainability of agriculture land; (4) provide a stimulus for farmers by providing incentives, protection of farmers’ rights and agrarian reforms; and (5) enforce the law. Several articles specify penalties to discourage land conversion (Article No. 70 and 71, Chapter XIV). Administrative sanctions are: (a) written warning; (b) temporary suspension of activities; (c) temporary suspension of public services; (d) closure location; (e) revocation of licence; (f) cancellation of licences; (g) building demolition; (h) recovery of land use; (i) removal of incentives and/or (j) administrative fines. Sanctions for the relevant actors are as follows: (1) anyone who converted protected land will be imprisoned for five years and pay a fine of USD100 000; (2) any government officer who issued a licence for land conversion in the agriculture land reserve will be imprisoned for one to five years and pay a fine of 1 billion to 5 billion IDR (USD100 000 to 500 000); (3) corporate actors will be jailed for two to seven years and pay a fine of 2 billion to 7 billion IDR (USD200 000 to 800 000).

INDICATOR DISCUSSION The land use function (LUF) framework has been applied to classify key sustainability issues into economic, social and environmental assessment groups (see Chapter 4). One indicator has been selected for each of the nine LUFs, three for each of the three SD dimensions (Table 8.1) Economic Dimension The indicator Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Non-Agricultural Sector will measure the potential impact of policies on the non-agricultural sector. The indicator total agricultural land is chosen to monitor the expansion (or shrinking) of agricultural land, to show the food production potential in the area. Land use conversion refers to both land converted to roads and land converted to urban areas. The road density indicator is seen as a proxy for the rate of land conversion; a high density of roads reflects a high conversion of land use. Social Dimension The unemployment rate indicator will show the share of the population that needs alternative ways for earning money. A high unemployment rate can promote land use conversion, since, for example, although it is


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Table 8.1 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimensions Sustainable development pillar

Land use functions (LUF) LUF Indicator

ENV 1

Provision of abiotic resources Provision of biotic resources Maintenance of ecosystem processes Residential and non-land industry and services Land-based production Infrastructure Provision of work Human health (risk) Food security

ENV 2 ENV 3 ECO 1 ECO 2 ECO 3 SOC 1 SOC 2 SOC 3

Water availability Total of protected area Water quality Gross domestic product on non- agricultural sector (per cent) Total agricultural land Road density Employment Life expectancy Comparison between rice production and rice consumption

Source: FoPIA Workshop, 2009 (König et al., 2010).

illegal, logging the forest can be seen as a promising alternative. The life expectancy indicator is here chosen mainly to reflect expected risks of disasters. People living in disaster prone areas and in particular on the southern slopes of the volcano are at higher risk and are considered and expected to have a lower life expectancy. Food security is an issue for the nation, and DIY contributes by supplying rice to the entire country. The indicators comparison between rice production and rice consumption are chosen to measure the degree to which that DIY is self-sufficient in rice production. Environmental Dimension Water availability has never in the past been an issue in DIY, but since the enormous change of the catchments occurred in Sleman Regency, the existence of some springs are in danger and some have already disappeared. The indicator water availability measures the extent to which water is available for the population in DIY. Water quality is used as an indicator of the pollution level in an area. Eutrophication of water bodies indicates excessive use of fertilizer, and a high number of E coli bacteria indicates untreated domestic waste water. Total protected area is chosen to indicate the adequacy of the protected area in DIY. Besides, this


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indicator can also be used to assess the total area protected from land use conversion.

CONCLUSION This case study exemplifies well the situation facing many developing countries, where urban population growth is rapid, bringing about rapid changes of land use, especially at the rural–urban interface, which poses a multifaceted challenge to sustainable development. The DPSIR analysis reveals the interplay between different factors that cause this situation, and identifies the most serious effects on environmental, economic and social sustainability. As a centre of education and tourism, DIY is a major attraction for migrants. This, together with natural population growth, has increased the demand for land for housing, economic activities and related infrastructure. The resulting land conversion has a number of negative impacts on the environment, in addition to the direct effect of reducing production of rice from the very fertile paddy fields that surround the city. One effect is the increased demand for water. The discharge from some of the natural springs in the area has been reduced or even eliminated, most likely due to deforestation and excessive use. Intensification of farming on the decreasing agricultural land area is putting more pressure on remaining land and soil resources, and the excessive use of fertilizer is contributing to the pollution of the environment. Government policies to attract investment through improved infrastructure have stimulated the growth of DIY. However, the policies issued to control land use change have not been very effective. The recent growth of DIY, although bringing some economic benefits, is also associated with social problems. The economic gap between wealthy newcomers and local people and the inability of the newcomers to blend in and to become integrated has brought about some shifts in social structure and values. Apart from this, pressure on land in the city has raised land prices. This is especially the case in the northern part of DIY, around the universities, but the higher land price has also affected land conversion in the south. Bantul Regency is also experiencing quite rapid land conversion from fertile agricultural land to residential and business areas. The lack of available data in this case made it important to consider an expert approach throughout the problem analysis. The Framework for Participating Impact Assessment (FoPIA) has been an important framework for involving experts and stakeholders when discussing causal chains and scenarios. The application of the land use function concept (LUFs)


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provided an important framework for a balanced selection of indicators relative to the key sustainability impact issues of the case study.

REFERENCES Adji, T.N., D. Marwasta and E. Nurjani (2007), ‘Studi pemodelan recharge air tanah tahunan kotamadya Yogyakarta’, Gadjah Mada University research report, Yogyakarta. Agus, F. and Irawan (2006), ‘Agricultural land conversion as a threat to food security and environmental quality’, Jurnal Litbang Pertanian, 25(3), 90–98. Agus, F. and M.A.O. Manikmas (2003), ‘Environmental roles of agriculture in Indonesia’, paper presented at 25th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, 16–22 August, Durban. Amin, Syaiful (2008), ‘Mahasiswa di Yogya Menyumbang Pendapatan Daerah Rp 2,94 Triliun’, Tempo, 22 July, p. 3. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) (2008), ‘Propinsi Yogyakarta Dalam Angka 2007/2008’, Yogyakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik. Bappenas (2007), ‘Laporan Perkembangan Pencapaian Millennium Development Goals Indonesia 2007’, Jakarta: Kementerian Negara Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional. BPKD, Badan Pengelolaan Keuangan dan Kekayaan Daerah (2009), ‘Laporan Kegiatan Konsultasi dan Kampanye Publick RAN-PK dan FGD Penyusunan RAD-PK Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta’, Yogyakarta: BPKD. Charbonnier, S.J. and R. Gertisser (2008), ‘Field observations and surface characteristics of pristine block-and-ash flow deposits from the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volano, Java, Indonesia’, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 177, 971–82. Dhanani, S. (2004), ‘Unemployment and underemployment in Indonesia’, 1976– 2000: paradoxes and issues’, Geneva: International Labour Organization. Digital Indonesian Earth Surface Map (1998), ‘case study area in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, field survey by Agency for National Coordination, Survey and Mapping. Dwi Hartono, M. (2005), ‘Konflik Umbul Wadon spring: Upaya membangun gerakan sosial di Hulu-Hilir’, Yogyakarta: Institute for Research and Empowerment, accessed at www.ireyogya.org/. Evers, H.D. (2007), ‘The end of urban involution and the cultural construction of urbanism in Indonesia’, Internationales Asienforum, 38(1–2), 51–65. Faturochman (2008), ‘Pertumbuhan Kota Yogyakarta’, Yogya Post, 30–31 May. Faturohman, D. Wicaksono, M. Setiyadi and L. Syahbudin (2004), ‘Dinamika Kependudukan dan Kebijakan’, Yogyakarta: Centre for Population and Policy Studies. Iqbal, M. and Sumaryanto (2007), ‘Strategi Pengendalian Alih Fungsi Lahan Pertanian Bertumpu Pada Partisipasi Masyarakat’, Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 23(2), 167–82. Iqbal, M. and G.S. Budi (2008), ‘Perspective of agri-environmental service incentives in Indonesia, developing countries and OECD members’, Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi, 26(1), 1–16. Kartikasari, T.T. (2007), ‘Kajian Tingkat Pertumbuhan dan Perkembangan


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Kecamatan Umbulharjo’, Sarjana (bachelor) thesis, Spatial and Urban Planning Department, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia. Keasberry, I.N. (2002), ‘Elder care, old-age security, and social change in rural Yogyakarta, Indonesia’, PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen. Konig, H.J., J. Schuler, U. Suarma, D. McNeill, J. Imbernon, F. Damayanthi, S.A. Dalimunthe, S. Uthes, J. Sartohadi, K. Helming and J. Morris (2010), ‘Assessing the impact of land use policy on urban–rural sustainability using the FoPIA approach in Yogyakarta, Indonesia’, Sustainability, 2, 1–19. Lavigne, F., J.C. Thouret, B. Voight, H. Suwa and A. Sumaryono (2000), ‘Lahars at Merapi volcano, Central Java: an overview’, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 100, 423–56. Marwasta, D. (2010), ‘Yogyakarta urban growth versus smart growth: towards Yogyakarta slow city proposal’, Yogyakarta: Urban Research Plaza Yogyakarta Sub-Center. Sawabi, Ign. (2008), ‘PDRB Sleman Terbaik di Provinsi DI Yogyakarta’, Kompas, 29 July, p. 22. Subanu, L.P. (2008), ‘Governing urban development in dualistic societies: a case study of the urban region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia’, in T. Kidokoro, N. Harata, L.P. Subanu, J. Jessen, A. Motte, and E.P. Seltzer (eds), Sustainable City Regions: Space, Place, and Governance, Tokyo: Springer Japan.


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9. Land subdivision and degradation in Narok, Kenya Patrick Gicheru, Stella Nabwile Makokha, Le Chen, Louis N. Gachimbi and Jane W. Wamuongo PROBLEM DESCRIPTION A large part of Kenya, over 80 per cent of the total land surface, is classified as ‘arid and semi-arid land (ASAL); only 20 per cent of the country has high potential for agriculture and this carries 80 per cent of the population. The majority of the population in the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASALs) is agro-pastoral, combining small-scale farming with livestock keeping, while about 4 million Kenyans, mainly Maasai people, are engaged in full- time pastoralism. There is an ongoing trend of changing the traditional pastoral type of life to a sedentary life form, a process which is associated with various socio-economic and environmental problems. This situation is typical not only in Kenya, but across the whole Sahel belt in Africa (Sindiga, 1984). The physical appearance of Kenya’s marginal semi-arid lands shows evidence of eroding hillsides, denuded plains, large erosion shelves, and deep sheer-sided gulleys; surface soil degradation and erosion in these areas are chronic (Sindiga, 1984). Moreover, plant production is limited by lack of available water and nutrients (Government of Kenya, 2004). Land degradation leading to desertification causes serious environmental and socio-economic problems in Kenya. This case focuses on Narok District, and on the problem of land degradation and land use conflicts linked to land fragmentation and a changing land tenure situation. People have migrated to Narok from the surrounding highlands, causing land scarcity and related land use conflicts. The increasing land scarcity is associated with soil fertility depletion and soil erosion (Pingali, 1989). Previously there existed large rangelands and group ranges used by agro-pastoralists, pastoralists and wildlife, but much of this land (80 per cent) has during the last two decades been divided into individual land holdings. The conversion in land tenure has had 148


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far-reaching environmental and socio-economic implications, in particular on the pastoralist, as the smaller units and parcels cannot sustain the pastoral life form (Kimani and Pickard, 1998). On the environmental side, this subdivision of land has caused a decline in pastoral land and overgrazing. Loss of land cover (grass, bushes and trees) has further reduced pasture availability for livestock, and has exposed the soil to erosion, while water catchment areas have been reduced. Increased soil erosion has reduced nutrient availability to crops and pasture, while runoff from arable farming has polluted the water used for both livestock and human consumption. The Mara reserve1 located within Narok District is continuously experiencing deforestation and agricultural encroachment, though this reserve provides important revenue to the tourism industry, through which Kenya earns about USD0.8 billion annually. This subdivision of land has caused land use conflicts, not only between farmers and pastoralists, but also between wildlife and the local population (Otuoma et al., 2009). The consequence has been reduced crop and livestock productivity, resulting in conflicts and low economic growth.

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM Historical Context The Narok District is mainly occupied by the indigenous Maasai people, who are to a large extent nomadic pastoralists. The nomadic lifestyle implies a culture whereby land is treated as communal property, while livestock is considered as individual or family wealth (Amman and Duraiappah, 2004). Other people in the district are immigrants from the Kenyan highlands practising commercial agriculture. People have immigrated to these areas since the 1960s, and in parallel with this demographic change there have been a series of land reforms, changing the customary land tenure system with the objective of providing individual land titles (Gachimbi et al., 2007). In this customary land tenure system the level of rights of use and/or control over the land by the individual members of a family, including that of women, are set by customary norms and regulations. Land in this system is not seen as a commodity in an economic sense, and relations to land are chiefly governed by customs and taboos, though succession and inheritance rights remain problematic. The customary land tenure holders lost most of their land, as part of the Land Privatization Policy, to individual or private registered landowners who practise agriculture; agriculture then expanded into areas previously used for grazing and as wildlife dispersal zones (Aggarwal and Thouless, 2009). However,


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while land is not seen as a commodity in the traditional pastoralist way of living, access to water and pastures is the essence of any pastoral existence. Hence, the land tenure issue in the pastoral communities is of paramount importance; no issue is more critical to the future wellbeing of Kenya’s pastoral populations than secure land tenure (Little, 1984). Sedentarization and urbanization continue to expand from the centre, and pastoral grazing lands are increasingly compressed. About 40 000 hectares of wet season wildlife and livestock pasture land have been lost to agriculture since 1975 within the Mara ecosystem. The human population in the Narok District increased tenfold between 1962 and 1989, with the percentage of the non-Masaai increasing from 5 per cent to 53 per cent, population density increasing from 7 to 27 persons/ km2, while land area per capita decreased from 0.15 to 0.03/km2. Environmental Context The Narok District (Figure 9.1) covers an area of 15 088 km2. It is situated in the south-western part of the country and borders Tanzania in the south; Transmara to the west; Bomet, Bureti and Nakuru to the north; and Kajiado to the east. The altitude ranges from 1000 metres to 3098 metres above sea level, and plains cover most of the area that lies between 1500 and 2100 metres altitude. Topographically the district has highlands in the north, in the west, and in the south-east. Narok falls under two drainage systems, the Rift Valley system, and the Lake Victoria drainage system in the north-west. The Rift Valley system is characterized by internal drainage and generally has scarce surface and underground water. The Mara is the main river in the district, followed by Ewaso Nyiro. All other tributaries, except the Enkare Narok and Enkare Siyapei tributaries, are seasonal, drying up during the dry season. The two rivers and the perennial tributaries comprise the most dependable surface water resource for the district’s water requirements. Rainfall is an important climate variable as it determines the potential for vegetation cover, and for agricultural production. The vegetation cover is related to increasing precipitation and decreasing temperature from the plains towards the highlands (Ogutu, 1996). The soils of Narok District are diverse due to topographic, climatic and geological differences, and soil types include brown loams and red friable clays in the highlands, and red friable clays and sandy loams in the plains (Ogutu, 1999). The ecosystem has a rich biodiversity. The Great Migration2 is one of the most impressive natural events worldwide, involving an immense number of herbivores: some 1 300 000 wildebeest, 360 000 Thomson’s gazelle, and 191 000 Zebra make up this great spectacle. Besides this, all members of the ‘Big Five’ are


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Source: Kenya Soil Survey (2011)

Figure 9.1 Location of Narok District in Kenya found in the Maasai Mara and make game viewing a phenomenal experience. Over 450 species have been identified in the Maasai Mara ecosystem with a high diversity of trees, shrubs, flowers and grasses. However, forest destruction in the district has been on the increase, with forest cover falling from 16 per cent to about 1.7 per cent of the total land area, thus falling below the acceptable limit of 2 per cent. Socio-economic Context The major livelihood activities in Narok, and their respective populations, are as follows: mixed farming (280 578 people), agro-pastoral (40 023), pastoral (109 783), and trading/business (30 411). The pastoralists comprise about 70 per cent of the population and occupy about 1.6 M ha, while the small-scale immigrant farmers, about 30 per cent of the population, occupy about 0.2 M ha. These immigrant farmers grow food crops


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mainly for subsistence. The large-scale commercial farmers are relatively few. Agriculture contributes an average of 90 per cent of the household income, and a total of 69 680 households work in the livestock industry. Other sources of economic revenue for the people include self-employment (1 per cent), wage employment (5.2 per cent), and urban employment (1.5 per cent); it is mainly people living in Narok town and its surroundings who are involved in trading and business activities. The pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, in addition to rearing livestock, produce food crops such as potatoes, maize and vegetables mainly for subsistence. The large-scale commercial farmers are immigrants who either rent or buy parcels of land from group ranches from the Maasai people. Some of the large-scale agricultural farms are irrigated, using water from the Mara river. Wheat farming is the major cash crop, while maize, beans, potatoes and vegetables are the major food crops (District Agricultural Officer, personal communication). Pyrethrum and coffee are relatively neglected because of the poor market for these crops. Other products grown in the district are beans, Irish potatoes, tomatoes, finger millet, cassava, soy beans, cowpeas, pigeon peas, tobacco, sunflower and tea. Marketing of the crops has been mainly out of the district, mostly to Nairobi. Relatively few local people are employed in the farming industry, as commercial farming is relatively limited in the district and farms are highly mechanized. The commercial farms do not significantly contribute to the GDP of Narok District compared to other activities like wildlife and livestock production. Furthermore, the agricultural sector in Kenya has registered poor growth over the last decade (declining by 2.4 per cent in the year 2000 and growing only 0.7 per cent in 2002). Agricultural marketing information and infrastructure are poorly organized and institutionalized. There are small and fragmented local markets, and exports are vulnerable to changes in demand for agricultural produce and non-trade barriers in foreign markets. There has been low investment in agriculture in the district compared to the other agricultural districts in the country, with no credits or subsidies extended to the farmers. Infrastructure has in general been poorly developed, constraining the district’s access to markets in other parts of Kenya. Tourism is the land use activity in the area that has been extremely successful in economic terms (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2005) and the relative importance of tourism to Kenya’s economy has risen steadily over the last 40 years. Tourism contributes roughly 35 per cent of the country’s foreign exchange revenue, and a significant portion of this tourism is wildlife- based (Sindiga, 1995). The Maasai Mara Reserve has received more visitors than any other protected area, including inland and marine national parks and reserves, in Kenya and East Africa (Sindiga, 1995). The income from tourism and wildlife activities does not, however, benefit the farmers


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directly, and revenues from the visitors often do not reach the community on behalf of whom the Narok County Council manages the Mara. At the same time, the large numbers of tourists visiting the Mara are said to have the unintended consequence of degrading the wildlife habitat. Poverty is perhaps the single most important problem for many people in the district. Approximately 64 per cent of the district’s total population lives below the poverty line, and the illiteracy level is high. A majority, 70 per cent, of the poor are women without significant sources of income. Women provide over 80 per cent of domestic food requirements in the rural areas, yet their access and control over land are increasingly being jeopardized. The majority of the people depend on water from boreholes and water pans, both for the household and their livestock. Institutional and Policy Context Environmental conservation is carried out in collaboration with the land development and management division of the Ministry of Agriculture, which is involved in coordination and implementation of conservation activities; the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) is involved in regulation and coordination of environmental issues; the forest department – all forestry activities; the World Wildlife Fund – conservation of Mara river basin; the Ewaso Nyiro South Development Authority (ENSDA) – Ewaso Nyiro river catchment protection. The collaborative activities involve planning, community mobilization, capacity building, implementation and input provision through environmental district, divisional and location committees; while environmental conservation programmes include woodlot establishment, agro-forestry, drip irrigation, soil fertility improvement technology, roof water harvesting and ox plough technology. Land management is regulated by numerous statutes and policies implemented by different sectors of the government. There is a lack of coherence in land use policy and formal institutional arrangements which leads to lack of coordination in the implementation of sound land use and management strategies. Land ownership in Narok is mainly trust land; however, there are also freehold, communal, family ranches, or group ranches. Rangelands are largely used as group ranches or national parks but with an increasing trend towards subdivision of ranches into individual holdings. A case in point is Suswa group ranch, which has been divided into individual land holdings of 12 hectares with freehold titles. Other land is owned by the group ranches under the Land (Group Representatives) Act. The group ranches concept originated from the East African Royal Commission, which recommended that the tribal lifestyle of the herding communities be protected. However, the


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government later converted group ranches to individual titles. This has had far-reaching tenure and environmental implications for social and economic life, and led to subdivision of land into units and parcels that cannot sustain the prevalent land uses. There are many policies that influence land use in Narok District, of which the most important ones may be briefly listed. The policy, Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture (SRA), 2004–2014 is a national policy whose vision is ‘To transform Kenya’s agriculture into a profitable, commercially oriented and internationally and regionally competitive economic activity that provides high quality gainful employment to Kenyans’. The objective of this policy is to strengthen the agricultural sector by addressing the various constraints that affect its productivity. Through this policy, constraints relevant to Narok, including low soil fertility, pests and diseases, drought and floods, low quality inputs and poor markets, are addressed. The National Policy for Sustainable Development of Arid and Semi-Arid Lands in Kenya, which will soon be implemented, has the objective to enhance food security, increase living standards and reduce dependency on food aid by the population living in the ASALs. This policy is formulated in order to provide a framework for a coherent approach to ASAL development that is informed by a new understanding of the different livelihood systems and causes of poverty in these areas. The policy identifies critical areas and sectors where investment will immediately stimulate economic growth and capital/asset accumulation, such that wealth is created, and poverty and long-term vulnerability to insecurity and disasters are significantly reduced over the next 10–15 years in the ASALs. The current Water Policy (Sessional paper No. 1 of 1999) provides an integrated framework for water provision for improving the social well- being of the population, enhancing economic performance and for ecosystem conservation. Objectives of the policy include preserving, conserving and protecting available water resources, supplying water of good quality and sufficient quantity; and establishing an institutional framework for management, supply and sanitation development. Two other policies, the Land Privatisation Policies and the Wildlife and Tourism Policies, which are identified as drivers in this case study, are described in the ‘Policies as drivers’ sub-section below.

CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS The analysis that follows is based on the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) framework (Figure 9.2) which provides a good basis to identify the relevant causal chains (see also Chapter 4).


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Underlying drivers: population growth, economic Policies: land privatization policy

development, climate change, infrastructure

D Proximate drivers: Immigration, agricultural intensification, land privatization

P

Land subdivision, overgrazing, arable farming, chemical use

Indicators

S

Environmental:

Economic:

Social:

Land cover

Income

Public awareness

Soil erosion

Food production

Safe drinking water

Biodiversity

Pasture production

Food security Ecotourism employment


Land use functions:

I

Environmental: farm income, food, pasture Economic: eco-tourism, safe drinking water Social: increased land cover, reduced soil erosion, biodiversity awareness and education

Policy options

Policy options (1): 1.8% decline in population growth rate up to 2030, 10% increase

R

of off-farm income per annum, and land subdivision of not less than 5.1 ha. - Policy options (2): 0.5% decline in population growth rate up to 2030, 5% increase of off-farm income per annum and land subdivision of not less than 5.1 ha.

Figure 9.2 DPSIR framework of the case study in Kenya Drivers The main underlying drivers include; economic development, road infrastructure, natural population growth and climate change.


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Economic development is a major underlying driver, whether related to the high potential, relatively fertile areas within Narok, including the forest area of the Mau, or the tourism activity within the Mara national park. In the last few years, the general road infrastructure, and in particular the improvement of the main road from Nairobi to Narok, has provided for improved income from tourism and from a diversified agriculture. Natural population growth is one important factor for the population increase in the area. The underlying driver climate change reduces overall precipitation and increases its variability, affecting land cover and agricultural productivity. Narok District is prone to climatic shocks and in particular droughts. The main proximate drivers in the area are immigration and agricultural intensification. Farmers have migrated to the dry lands from the high lands due to lack of available land. This influx of people has brought about changes in land use, in subsistence practices and in lifestyles. The population densities are expected to increase according to the same trend over the next ten years. The high population densities in certain areas within the district are attributed to relatively more favourable weather conditions, and fertile soils that support agricultural activities. The movement from forest and bush fallow systems of cultivation to annual and multi-crop cultivation systems is called agricultural intensification (Pingali, 1989). Along with the new land tenure system, there has been a desire to own land individually among the traditional Maasai. Group ranches, which initially were owned by clans, have been subdivided and units have been sold or leased to immigrants. This subdivision has led to land conversion from the original land use of keeping animals to agricultural production using fertilizers, herbicides and other pesticides, intensifying land use. Unfortunately few land conservation measures, such as terracing and fallowing, have been provided. Policies as Drivers The Land Privatization Policy has changed the land tenure system to private ownership through the Registration of Titles Act (Cap. 281), Cap. 3 of 1963 (revised 1989). Under the private tenure system (individual or cooperative), the Land Privatization Policy encourages land subdivision, registration and privatization, irrespective of whether land is agriculturally productive or marginal (ASAL areas) to give confidence and incentives to landowners and managers so that they are able to devote their time and capital to land improvement practices and reap the benefits thereof. This subdivision has attracted immigrants from outside the district who are leasing land from the current individual pastoralist landowners. Some pastoralist landowners also sell land parcels to immigrant farmers. This worked well while population pressure was still low but is now leading to land fragmentation below


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economically viable units, leading to reduced land productivity, nutrient losses through erosion, land conflicts, reduced crop rotation and so on. Under the constitution Trust Land Act, County Councils were supposed to hold trust land on trust for residents, but the council and the government have alienated most of the land to rich people (usually non-Maasai). As a result, the Maasai are gradually being pushed to more marginal areas. The resultant small plots cannot provide an adequate source of subsistence for the Maasai (Kimani and Pickard, 1998) and attempts by these people to continue rearing large numbers of livestock for subsistence on their small individual plots with limited mobility increases the potential for land degradation (Kimani and Pickard, 1998). The Land Privatization Policy, together with the Trust Land Act have led to agricultural expansion into areas previously used for grazing and as wildlife dispersal zones (Aggarwal and Thouless, 2009). Since 1975 about 40 000 hectares of wet season wildlife and livestock pasture land have been lost to agricultural production in the Mara ecosystem. The main goal of The Wildlife and Tourism Policy is to direct greater economic benefits from parks to local people. To reach this objective, the Kenya government called for: (1) revenue sharing with landowners adjacent to the parks, and relevant local authorities; (2) direct compensation for loss and injury to people; and (3) community participation in wildlife management. However, these strategies are difficult to implement (Sindiga, 1995). Over the years, it has been observed that there is: (1) uneven distribution of revenue among stakeholders involved in wildlife tourism; (2) a lack of investment in wildlife by landowners; and (3) the denial of compensation for loss of life and damage to property (Sindiga, 1995; Norton-Griffiths, 2006). Numerous stakeholders are involved in wildlife tourism, among which are individual and group landowners (Sindiga, 1995). However, landowners have, in the main, been involved in wildlife tourism enterprises only as employees or as the recipients of limited revenue-sharing, ground rents or charges, rather than as full owners or entrepreneurs. The primary profits from wildlife tourism have tended to accrue to large commercial operators or to the state (Emerton, 1997). As a consequence, the expansion of human settlements threatens wildlife habitats. This has led to the menace of wildlife to livestock, crops and people. Not being compensated for their losses, communities adjacent to National Parks and National Reserves pay a price for the conservation of wildlife. Pressure The pressures in the case study area include: an increasing demand for arable land, subdivision of land, continuous cultivation, clearing of bush


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and overstocking. High usage of inorganic agro-chemicals, especially by large-scale wheat farmers, is another pressure in the area. State Narok is characterized by reduced forest and vegetation cover, and reduced land for pasture. There are droughts and floods, increasing water and soil pollution, with lack of good quality water for human and livestock consumption. Human conflicts are prevalent due to scarce natural resources (water and pasture). Impacts During the last 30 years the Narok District has undergone rapid changes in terms of land use and land tenure, as land tenure has changed from free range land, to group ranches, and then to private ownership (Duraiappah et al., 2000; Reid et al., 2007). However, the conversion of group ranches to continuously smaller private land units has had far-reaching environmental implications on the social and economic lives of people, and especially the Maasai (Waiganjo and Ngugi, 2001). The smaller land units could not sustain the prevalent land uses and this has resulted in overexploitation of the natural resources. Alongside, there has been a lack of understanding, by the pastoral society in particular, of the new land tenure institutions and market exchange, which has led to their exploitation and marginalization by better informed groups. Overall there is poor economic growth in the area, a situation which has been attributed to falling agricultural productivity, drought and environmental degradation, among other factors. Despite this, there has been a slight general improvement of the economic status of people due to diversification of economic activities, and because of improved infrastructure. Tourism is the major contributor to GDP in the district, but due to waste disposal and poor management, the activity degrades the land and there are few benefits for the local population. Thus, while the economic situation has improved, most people are still poor and tend to over-utilize the available resources. Humans encroach on land traditionally used for livestock for farming, while increasing herd numbers are stressing available grazing resources, leaving land and soil in a degraded state. The country loses up to 12 million trees annually to charcoal alone, while there is on the other hand very little planting of trees. There has been loss of land cover, exposing the soil for erosion, and reducing soil nutrient availability to crops and pasture. In the Suswa Location of the district, for instance, between 1980 and 2007, the soil erosion rate increased from


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50 per cent to almost 80 per cent, and water availability reduced from 90 per cent to about 55 per cent (Gachimbi et al., 2008). The consequence has been reduced crop and livestock productivity. Agricultural intensification and the use of inorganic agro-chemicals in wheat and horticultural production, in particular by large-scale farmers, have polluted the water bodies which are used for both livestock and human consumption. Environmental degradation is exacerbated by climate, causing drought and reduction in water catchment areas. People are increasingly facing water shortages as well as problems with poor water quality and environmental degradation. The long-term trend shows a decline of more than 60 per cent in total wildlife density in the last 25 years. The legal ownership of wildlife by the state, both in protected areas and in private land, and the exclusion of local communities, have alienated wildlife and their benefits from the people, thereby sparking conflicts. The situation is made worse because of the failure of local, national and regional legislation and a lack of institutional structures to address water resource issues. The destruction of the ‘Mau forest complex’ within the district may serve as a case example. Since the late 1970s, huge pieces of land have been excised from the country’s forests, and the destruction of the forests is reported to have wide-ranging environmental impacts which are already starting to be felt, with prolonged drought and lower rainfall levels affecting farming conditions (Moody, 2008). Due to the destruction of the forest, some of the streams that once flowed from the rivers have now dried up. There is an ongoing proposal to relocate 2000 inhabitants into the Mau forest complex, an initiative which has raised a storm locally and in the Nile basin countries (Ngunjiri, 2010). The survival of the Maasai Mara and Serengeti game reserves depends on the Mau, and environmental experts are concerned that the biodiversity, and indeed the forests, will disappear if nothing is done to prevent forest destruction (UNEP, 2008). The costs of the destruction of the Mau in economic terms surpasses the USD300 million given by UNEP (UNEP, 2008). These concerns have prompted a collaboration between UNEP, EU and the Government of Kenya, which aims to restore the Mau forest complex (UNEP, 2011).

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES The district is well endowed with diverse natural resources, which, if well managed, could provide sustainable livelihoods for people in the district,


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but environmental degradation is exacerbating the poverty situation. The goal of sustainable development is ‘effective management for sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction’ through introduction of high quality crops, the establishment of industries to process agricultural products and promote eco-tourism (Narok County Council, 2005). Sustainable Development Objectives in Narok The economic target is to increase the share of off-farm income from eco- tourism by 10 per cent per annum up to the year 2030 by involving more pastoralists in tourism. The 10 per cent increase is commensurate with the Government of Kenya’s Vision 20303 of increasing the GDP growth rate of 10 per cent per annum (Government of Kenya, 2007). The social target is to provide off-farm employment and to reduce the high dependence on the land. Income from employment will then contribute to the important targets of increasing food security and general welfare of the population. The environmental target is to improve soil conservation measures, especially on leased large-scale farms, and to reduce use of pesticides. Selected Policies to Promote Sustainable Development The current policies do not adequately address the challenge of ecological sustainability. To achieve the economic, social and environmental targets just mentioned, it will be necessary to increase employment off-farm coming from the Wildlife and Tourism sector and to minimize land subdivision to uneconomical units by adapting new Land Privatization and Wildlife and Tourism sector policies. An Adapted Land Privatization Policy would restrict land subdivision to no less than 5.1 ha per total livestock unit (TLU) (Jager et al., 1999). The purpose of this restriction is for land utilization to be viable in economic and environmental terms. In these semi-arid areas 5.1 ha is considered an economical land unit when under irrigation. The government has proposed a new land use policy (Government of Kenya, 2006), in which measures will be put in place to determine appropriate land sizes according to use and productivity of land, and provide incentives to stimulate voluntary readjustment of land sizes. Restricting land subdivision will reduce land cultivation for family food crops and hence reduce land degradation. Although this will not be easy, households with smaller land sizes will be encouraged to consolidate. Reduction of population growth rate by 1 per cent per year up to 2030 is envisaged to be necessary (Wortham, 1995) in order to attain the lower limit land size. Reduction in population growth


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rate will reduce pressure on cultivation of the land, therefore reducing land degradation. In Kenya, programmes are in place to reduce the population growth rate. There is a call for an Alternative Wildlife and Tourism Policy by stakeholders and researchers, which aims to encourage local participation in wildlife management in order to enhance the equal distribution of the tourism revenues. (Currently the employment of the local community is almost nil.) The policy will act by decentralizing the tourism authority and decision-making processes from the national level to democratically elected regional and local institutions and organizations (Akama, 1997). Local institutions will furthermore be given the task to educate and provide capacity-building to local people for off-farm employment in the tourism sector. An increase in the rate of employment will reduce local people’s over-reliance on agriculture and pastoralism for their livelihood, thus reducing soil degradation and human–wildlife conflict.

INDICATOR DISCUSSION Indicators are used to measure the impact of the chosen policies, Alternative Wildlife and Tourism Policy and the Adapted Land Privatization Policy, relative to the sustainable development targets of the Narok District. Different indicators of Land Use Functions (LUFs) were chosen to represent different dimensions of sustainable development (Table 9.1). Environmental Dimension The biotic and abiotic indicators measure land status related to impacts from the chosen policy to increased employment and the anticipated decline of the area under pasture. The indicators soil runoff, water runoff and soil erosion are selected to indicate whether the status of the soils have improved. The indicators water quality, fertilizer use, pesticide use and soil nutrient balance provide a direct measure of agricultural intensification activities. High erosion levels, and high fertilizer and pesticide use indicate reduced sustainable development. The biotic indicators vegetation growth rate, total livestock units (TLU) per unit land, share of land under cultivation, and biodiversity provide information of the pressure on the vegetation cover. The indicator maintenance of ecosystem processes is the share of land under natural vegetation, an indicator which measures the degree that ecosystem processes are maintained. A low level of remaining natural vegetation would indicate a very low effect of the selected polices for implementation.


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Table 9.1 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimension Sustainable development pillar


LUF Indicator

ENV 1

Provision of abiotic resources

ENV 2

Provision of biotic resources

ENV 3

Maintenance of ecosystem processes Industry and services Land-based production

Fertilizer use, water availability, rainfall/PPE, slope, soil type, average soil runoff, average water runoff, water quality, soil erosion, soil nutrient balance, pesticide use. Growth rate of vegetation, share of land under cultivation, total livestock units (TLU) per unit land, biodiversity. Share of land under natural vegetation.

ECO 1 ECO 2 ECO 3

Provision of infrastructure

SOC 1

Provision of work

SOC 2

Food security

Land market price, land lease price, price of labour Crop type, rate of farmers using tractors to till, rate of income from tourism, share of off-farm income. Access to agricultural extension office, access to services and markets, access to roads, access to dips for livestock. Labour provision according to gender, share of population with membership in social group, population growth rate, share of population with 8 yrs of education. Average staple food consumption per household/yr.

Economic Dimension The indicators land market price, land lease price and price of labour provide information about the cost of production. It is anticipated/believed that low costs of production will stimulate conversion of natural land to agricultural land, while high production costs, high prices for land and labour may reduce the rate of land conversion. The indicators rate of income from tourism and share of off-farm income in the district are chosen to measure the degree of economic development in the area; This is a diversified economy in which the fact that an increasing part of the income is derived from secondary industry implies economic growth. Also, an increased rate of income from tourism can indicate more off-farm activities relative


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to fewer pastoralist activities, less grazing pressure, reduced soil and vegetation loss. The indicator access to agricultural extension office indicates access to education and information on sustainable agricultural production and soil management practices, for increased profit. Social Dimension The indicators share of population with membership in social group and share of population with eight years of education are selected to measure the degree of access to knowledge on sustainable land use. Engagement in social groups increases the chance of getting information on sustainable land use. Education increases awareness on sustainable land management, therefore a high share of educated people increases the chance to have sustainable land management, thus reducing land degradation. The indicator population growth rate indicates the pressure for increased cultivation of land for food, while the indicator average staple food consumption per household/ year reflects the relationships between food security and the resources available to the household. It is hypothesized that a household that is food secure is likely not to engage in activities that exploit the soil unsustainably.

CONCLUSIONS Over 80 per cent of Kenya land area is classified as arid and semi-arid land. Only 20 per cent of the people live in these areas, but rapid population growth has led to increasing pressure on these marginal lands, threatening sustainable development. This case study focuses on the District of Narok, which exemplifies the problem, not only in Kenya, but across the whole Sahel belt, of land degradation and land use conflicts linked to land fragmentation and a changing land tenure situation. The change from a traditional pastoral to a sedentary life style is associated with a number of socio-economic and environmental problems. The DPSIR analysis, supplemented by involvement of stakeholders, helped to reveal the complex interplay of causal factors in this case. In summary, a combination of economic forces and population growth – largely outside the study area – has led to greatly increased pressure on land. A wide range of different, but related land use policies have an impact on the region, and the policy typology has guided the understanding of the impact, or lack of impact, of these policies on the different dimensions of SD. These factors have been accompanied by changes in land tenure which have encouraged privatization. Previously there existed large rangelands and group ranges used by agro-pastoralists, pastoralists and wildlife,


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but much of this land (80 per cent) has during the last two decades been divided into individual land holdings, increasingly small in size. On the environmental side, this subdivision of land has caused a decline in pastoral land and overgrazing. Loss of land cover (grass, bushes and trees) has further reduced pasture availability for livestock, and exposed the soil to erosion, while water catchment areas have been reduced. Increased soil erosion has reduced nutrient availability to crops and pasture, while runoff from arable farming has polluted the water used for both livestock and human consumption. And as human populations grow and land use intensifies, the pressure on the remaining wildlife increases; there has been a decline of more than 60 per cent in total wildlife density in the last 25 years in Narok District. These changes have economic implications in turn. Plant production is limited by lack of available water and nutrients, so that crop and livestock productivity is reduced. And the Mara game reserve, located within Narok District, which provides major revenue to Kenya’s important tourism industry, is suffering deforestation and agricultural encroachment. Associated with these impacts are social problems. The smaller land units cannot sustain the pastoral life form, and there are conflicts between different groups – especially the pastoralist Maasai and the sedentary population, largely recent migrants. The new institutions for land tenure, land use and market exchange are not well understood by some groups in the area, which has often led to their exploitation and marginalization by other groups who are better informed. The land use functions (LUFs) have provided a useful framework to structure the different impacts and to ensure that appropriate indicators are selected for the measurement of these impacts across the dimensions of SD. Two policies have been particularly focused upon in this study. In brief, the land privatization policy has been a contributory factor to the problems here identified, while the policy on wildlife and tourism has been of only limited success in countering them.

NOTES 1. The Mara game reserve is located in south-western Kenya, and is effectively the northern continuation of the Serengeti National Park game reserve in Tanzania. 2. Great migration is the seasonal migration of wildebeest between Serengeti and Mara national parks. 3. The Kenya Vision 2030 aims at making Kenya a newly industrializing middle-income country providing high quality of life for all citizens by the year 2030. The vision was developed through a stakeholder consultative process involving Kenyans from all parts of the country.


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REFERENCES Aggarwal, A. and C. Thouless (2009), Land tenure and property rights assessment: the northern rangeland and coastal conservation programs of USAID/ Kenya, pp. 41, USAID, ARD Inc., Burlington, accessed at http://pdf.usaid.gov/ pdf_docs/PNADP496.pdf. Akama, J.S. (1997), ‘Tourism development in Kenya: problems and policy alternatives’, Progress in Tourism and Hospitality Research, 3, 95–105. Amman, H.M. and A.K Duraiappah (2004), ‘Land tenure and conflict resolution: a game theoretic approach in the Narok district in Kenya’, Environment and Development Economics, 9, 383–407. Duraiappah, A.K., G. Ikiara, M. Manundu, W. Nyangena and R. Sinange (2000), ‘Land tenure, land use, environment degradation and conflict resolution: a PASIR analysis for the Narok District, Kenya’, in CREED working paper 33, London: International Institute for Environment and Development. Emerton, L. (1997), ‘The economics of tourism, and wildlife conservation in Africa’, African Wildlife Foundation discussion paper 4, Nairobi. Gachimbi, L.N., S. Obanyi, P.T. Gicheru and P.N. Macharia (2007), Using Farmer Field Schools Approaches to Overcome Land Degradation in Agro-pastoral Areas of Kenya, Nairobi: Kenya Agricultural Research Institute. Gachimbi, L., S.N. Obanyi, S. Makokha, V. Gathaara, P.T. Gicheru and J.W. Wamuongo (2008), Overview and Analysis of Land Use Policies in Kenya, Nairobi: Kenya Agricultural Research Institute. Government of Kenya (2004), ‘Reduction strategy poverty paper, PRSP 2001– 2004’, Nairobi. Government of Kenya (2006), Draft National Land Policy, Nairobi: Ministry of Lands. Government of Kenya (2007), ‘Final draft of the wildlife policy’, Nairobi, accessed at www.tourism.go.ke/ministry.nsf/doc/DRAFT_WILDLIFE_POLICY.pdf. Jager, A. de, E. Smaling, D. Onduru, M. Bekunda, and N. Röling (1999), ‘Designing integrated nutrient management systems in sub-Saharan Africa’, in C. Leeuwis (ed.), Integral Design: an Innovation in Agriculture and Resource Management, Wageningen, Netherlands: Backhuys Publishers, pp. 173–93. Kenya Soil Survey (2011), ‘Location map of Narok District’, Kenya Soil Survey publication. Kimani, K. and J. Pickard (1998), ‘Recent trends and implications of group ranch sub-division and fragmentation in Kajiado District, Kenya’, The Geographical Journal, 7, 202–13. Little, P.D. (1984), ‘Critical socio-economic variables in African pastoral livestock development: toward a comparative framework’, in J.R. Simpson and P. Evangelou (eds), Livestock Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Constraints, Prospects, Policy, Boulder, Co: Westview, pp. 201–14. Moody, B. (2008), ‘Destruction of Kenya forest is a national emergency’, Reuters, accessed at www.reuters.com/article/2008/09/03/us-kenya-forest-idUSL 246908720080903. Narok County Council (2005), ‘Narok strategic plan 2005–2010’, Narok. Ngunjiri, J. (2010), ‘How to write about Africa’, Sunday Nation, 25 April. Norton-Griffiths, M. (2006), ‘The structured assessment of wildlife policy in Kenya’, accessed at http://mng5.com/others.htm.


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Ogutu, Z.A. (1996), ‘Multivariate analysis of plant communities in the Narok district, Kenya: the influence of environmental factors and human disturbance’, Vegetatio, 126, 181–9. Ogutu, Z.A. (1999), ‘An investigation of the influence of human disturbance on selected soil nutrients in Narok District, Kenya’, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 58(1), 39–60. Otuoma, J., J. Kinyamario, E. Wellington, M. Kshatriya and M. Nyabenge (2009), ‘Effects of human–livestock interactions on habitat in an eastern Kenya rangeland’, African Journal of Ecology, 47, 567–73. Pingali, S. (1989), ‘Adaptive window flow control in ISDN frame relay networks’, M-S thesis, Clemson University, Clemson, SC. PricewaterhouseCoopers (2005), ‘Narok District vision and strategy 2005–2015’, Narok, accessed at www.aridland.go.ke/NRM_Strategy/narok.pdf. Reid, R., M. Said, K. Homewood, D. Nkedianye, D. Kaelo, M. Neselle, L. Onetu, O. Makui, O. Kamuaro, R. Boone, P. Kristjanson, S. BurnSilver, P. Thornton, S. Serneels, P. Trench, M. Herrero, M. Radeny, S. Kiruswa, M. Norton- Griffiths, S. Kifugo, M. Msoffe, C. Bedelian and F. Mizutani (2007), Better Policy and Management Options for Pastoral Lands: Assessing Trade-offs Between Poverty Alleviation and Wildlife Conservation, Nairobi: International Livestock Research Institute. Sindiga, I. (1984), ‘Land and population problems in Kajiado and Narok, Kenya’, African Studies Review, 27, 23–39. Sindiga, I. (1995), ‘Wildlife-based tourism in Kenya: land use conflicts and government compensation policies over protected areas’, The Journal of Tourism Studies, 6, 45–55. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2008), ‘Protecting Mau Forest in Kenya’s economic interest’, accessed at www.unep.org/documents.multilingual/default.asp?DocumentID=540&ArticleID=5877&l=en. UNEP (2011), ‘European Commission and UNEP announce new partnership to catalyze green economy’, accessed at http://new.unep.org/Documents. Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=659&ArticleID=6911&l=en&t=long. Waiganjo, C. and P.E.N. Ngugi (2001), ‘The effects of existing land tenure systems on land use in Kenya today’, paper presented at international conference on spatial information for sustainable development, 2–5 October, Nairobi. Wortham, R. (1995), ‘Prospects for fertility reduction and projections for future population growth in Kenya’, Population Research and Policy Review, 14, 111–35.


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10. Agrarian crisis and policy links: a framework for Karnataka, India Seema Purushothaman, Sheetal Patil and Sham Kashyap The analysis of agricultural land use changes provides one important missing link between existing policies and the crisis prevailing in Indian agriculture. This chapter presents a brief overview of spatio-temporal patterns of land use in Karnataka in a framework, and reviews policies that have direct or indirect effects on this pattern. We link these changes to the socio-economic-ecological crisis of agriculture, establishing empirical linkages between policies, land use, cropping pattern and sustainability of small-scale agriculture.

AGRARIAN CRISIS IN INDIA Cultivated area (about 45 per cent) and area under forests (22 per cent) are the major land use categories in India. Employing nearly 60 per cent of the workforce, agriculture is the single largest source of employment in the country. Even though the share of agriculture in the national income has continued to decrease (from about 28 per cent of GDP in 1995 to 17 per cent in 2008–09), agriculture is still crucial in terms of employment, food security and budgetary allocation. Nevertheless, problems in the sector are rampant. Ecological problems facing the sector include declining soil health, water availability, and agro-biodiversity; economic problems include adverse terms of trade, conversion of agricultural lands, volatile prices and indebtedness. Social problems are exemplified by erosion of social institutions among rural communities, income disparity and, in the past one and a half decades, widespread distress among farming communities. There is a considerable body of literature on agricultural sector and related policy recommendations for the country. These studies qualitatively 167


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assess the impact of macro-level farm policies on the current state of Indian agriculture (Vaidyanathan, 2000; von Braun et al., 2005; Punnathara, 2007). Also, there are many scholarly writings on specific aspects of Indian agriculture, such as Aziz and Krishna (1997) on land reforms, Jodhaka (2006) on rural transformation and marginalization of agriculture since the green revolution in Punjab, Madhavan (2006) on shifting patterns of land use from traditional to newer crops, Ray and Ghosh (2007) on the ecological issues of intensified agricultural systems, Satish (2007) on agricultural credit, and Vasavi (2009) on the sociological factors behind farmers’ suicides. We have chosen to focus particularly on the challenge to sustainable development and poverty, starkly manifested by the tragedy of farmers’ suicide (nearly 200 000 farmers committing suicide1 between 1997 and 2008 according to the National Crime Records Bureau), degradation of land resources (in terms of loss of soil fertility, decreasing groundwater levels, and water salinity), stagnating yields and slow growth in Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) in agriculture (0.03 per cent annual average from 1993 to 2004). In India, national and state-level policies have for decades had a major influence on all sectors, especially agriculture. Despite liberalization in recent years, government policies remain a very powerful factor for understanding the agrarian crisis. In addition to a number of geophysical and socio-cultural factors, a complex set of policies have had a major influence on cropping patterns, intensity of land use and hence the well-being of various sections of farmers contributing to the agricultural sector.

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM: THE AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN KARNATAKA We take the case of Karnataka which is representative of both high rates of economic growth as well as the current agrarian distress in India. Karnataka is one of four southern states of India (Figure 10.1), with a population of 53 million (2001 Census). The per capita Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of the state has grown at an average of about 11 per cent per year (2 per cent more than the Indian average growth rate) in the last decade. The per capita NSDP of Karnataka is 23 920 INR (USD5322) and is slightly higher than the Indian average per capita Net Domestic Product of 22 920 INR (USD510). Traditionally agriculture has been an important economic activity with strong inter- sector linkages in Karnataka. Even though agriculture’s share in the state’s GDP decreased from 33 per cent in 1993 to 20 per cent in 2005,


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Karnataka, India case study 169 INDIA 1

2

3

8

9

7

4

10

5

6

1

North Eastern Transition Zone

2

North Eastern Dry Zone

3

Northern Dry Zone

4

Central Dry Zone

5

Eastern Dry Zone

6

Southern Dry Zone

7

Southern Transition Zone

8

Northern Transition Zone

9

Hill Zone

10 Coastal Zone

Source: Adapted from university of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, Karnataka. Available at: http://www.uasbangalore.edu.in/asp/stations.asp, accessed 28 January 2010.

Figure 10.1 Karnataka: agro-climatic zones it provides employment to almost two-thirds of the state’s workers. The total geographical area of Karnataka is approximately 19 million hectares. Together with net sown area and fallows, agriculture amounts to nearly 63 per cent of the total land available in the state. Net sown area constitutes about 51.7 per cent of the total geographical area (TGA). The changes in land use pattern in India and Karnataka show similar trends. Table 10.1 depicts change from 1996 to 2005 in average proportion of land use categories in India and Karnataka to respective TGA. Between 1996 and 2005, the use of land for non-agricultural purposes increased by 450 000 hectares (6.7 per cent to 7 per cent of TGA), permanent pasture lands were reduced by 730 000 hectares (5.2 per cent to 4.9 per cent of TGA) and current fallows increased by 733 000 hectares (7.1 per cent to 8.2 per cent of TGA).


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Table 10.1 Major land use categories in India and Karnataka (% of TGA as 5-year average) Category

Forests Barren land Non-agricultural land Cultural waste land Permanent pasture land Other fallow Current fallow Net sown area

India

Karnataka

1996–2000

2001–2005

1996–2000

2001–2005

21.0 5.4 7.0 4.2 3.3 3.1 4.3 43.2

21.2 5.4 7.5 4.0 3.2 3.1 4.8 42.5

16.0 4.2 6.7 2.3 5.2 2.1 7.1 54.1

16.0 4.1 7.0 2.2 4.9 2.4 8.2 52.9

Note: Columns do not add up to 100% as some land use categories are not considered. Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Karnataka and Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

Karnataka is also characterized by diverse agro-climatic zones (Figure 10.1). The 30 districts3 of the state belong to 10 different agro-climatic zones. Out of these, five zones are dry and have low and erratic rainfall distributions. Average rainfall in Karnataka is about 1139 mm per year, with high spatio-temporal variations. Karnataka is second only to Rajasthan in terms of area classified as drought-prone in India, and is mostly rain-fed with less than 30 per cent of agricultural area under irrigation. Spatial and temporal trends in crops and practices within the total arable land available for agriculture reveal a complex set of features (Purushothaman and Kashyap, 2010). The trend in acreage for oilseeds followed by cotton has been the most volatile. Other commercial crops such as maize, sugarcane and coconut show a consistently upward trend, while acreages of millet crops such as jowar (sorghum) and bajra (pearl millet) are declining consistently. Acreage of paddy and ragi (finger millet) shows marginal variations. Rainfall data for the past four decades do not fully explain the variations in cropping pattern in the state. This suggests that a variety of physical as well as policy pressures are acting on the diverse system of agricultural practices spread across 10 agro- ecological zones in Karnataka. Trend analyses of agricultural land use in the Karnataka state and district levels show immense changes in cropping patterns, with the variability in these changes increasing in magnitude during the last two decades. Meanwhile, the crime records bureau reports


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Karnataka, India case study 171

more than 25 000 farmers in the state committing suicide during the period 1997–2008. The rest of this section summarizes the physical characteristics within Karnataka that partially explain the trends in cropping patterns explained above; policies are dealt with at greater length in the section on causal chains. Most (about 62 per cent of the 966 000 hectares) of the permanent pasture land in the state is located in only six districts (Shimoga, Kolar, Chikmagalur, Chitradurga, Mysore and Tumkur). These districts fall under the southern transition zone and the southern and eastern dry zones. Among the remaining districts in the state, about 13 districts (in the north and north-eastern dry zone) have permanent pasture lands, but these each constitute only 3 per cent of the TGA. Major areas under agriculture are located in eight districts (out of 27) in the state, with an extent of nearly 45 per cent of their TGA. Other than Bangalore (urban) all these districts are part of the Western Ghats and are home to many large dams and hydroelectric projects. With its river basins (seven) in Karnataka, around 1695 Thousand million cubic feet (TMC) of water can be economically utilized annually, along with an additional 485 TMC of groundwater. However, since these resources are not uniformly distributed across the state, using them without over-exploitation or wastage has been difficult. For example, 56 out of 380 watersheds are reported to be over-exploited in the state (Government of Karnataka, 2003). Also, water from many west-flowing rivers cannot be harnessed due to geographical features and problems in access and distribution. Current irrigation potential of the major and medium projects with the available river water resources is estimated to be 2.46 million hectares. Minor surface irrigation projects including tank irrigation have a potential of around 1 million hectares. However, the actual area irrigated is considerably less, and is dependent on rainfall.4 For example, in 2003–04, only 2.38 million hectares of net area was irrigated from all sources, out of which major and minor irrigation projects covered 743 000 hectares, and tanks covered 147 000 hectares. Wells and other irrigation sources covered the remaining 1.5 million hectares of net area irrigated. Almost 60 per cent of the state’s geographical area is suitable for agriculture; more than 40 per cent of the state’s TGA is affected by soil degradation due to water erosion, nutrient losses, compaction and crusting of the soil (Government of Karnataka, 2003). Evidence of soil erosion is available more in the dry zones. Land use planning and soil conservation programmes thus need to consider scarcity of natural biomass, variations in agro-climatic zones, and erratic rainfall distribution.


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CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS IN AGRARIAN CHANGES We observe that any implemented policy related to agriculture (whether falling within the ambit of agricultural governance or not) brings changes in productive use of land, and that ecological, economic and social aspects of agriculture are directly or indirectly linked to the current pattern of change in agricultural land use. In this section we therefore attempt a detailed regional characterization and policy analysis to discern the impact of policies on agricultural land use and the impact of agricultural land use on the ecological and socio-economic status of agriculture, while recognizing that other factors, including international agreements, nature of terrain, rainfall pattern and socio-cultural aspects, play important roles. Policy Links to Problems in the Agricultural Sector in Karnataka We identify below relevant policies that may be driving the agricultural changes and consequent socio-economic-ecological problems in Karnataka. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

Land reforms Land Acquisition Act Special Economic Zones Karnataka Industrial Area Development Act Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGREGS) Public distribution policy and systems Watershed development policies Policies for commercial diversification in agriculture National agricultural price policy Agricultural subsidy policy Agricultural trade policy Agricultural credit policy Technology mission for oilseeds, pulses and maize National Horticultural Mission

Land reforms and their impact on land use Land reforms, started during the 1960s with varying success in different states, have made an impact on land use options in India. Land reform Acts conferred ownership of agricultural lands on tenants, put ceilings on land ownership and redistributed the surplus from large holders. These reforms can be treated as precursors to the green revolution. They marked


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an important step in the equitable distribution of agricultural land, and gave social and political voice to the landless. Where implemented effectively, land reforms increased the number of landholders and decreased the size of the average land holding per farmer. Many studies claim that land entitlement, tenurial security and decreased size of average land holding could help in reduction of fallows and in increasing land productivity (Haque, 2003; Chandrashekhar and Ghosh, 2004). But the hypothesis that redistributional policies can increase agricultural productivity has been increasingly questioned in the liberalization regime, and, instead, a case is being made for contract farming, economies of scale, consolidation and relaxation of the ceiling on land ownership (Haque, 2003; Srivastava, 2006; Deshpande and Prabhu, 2007). Land reforms were legally enforced in Karnataka through the Karnataka Land Reforms Act, 1961. At present more than 67 per cent of Karnataka’s farmers own less than 2 hectares of land each. This small size of land holding has made farming risky and comparatively less profitable for the new entrants to the profession (Government of Karnataka, 2006). The impact of these reforms on land use pattern and agricultural sustainability is not mentioned as much as their implementation and impact on equity (Sinha and Pushpendra, 2000; Deshpande and Prabhu, 2007). But the surplus lands and government wastelands distributed among socially backward classes could be used only for cultivation of low yielding crops, mostly for subsistence. The perverse incentive to exploit these for unsustainable uses (arising from declining productivity and access to resources) has been mentioned in the literature (Purushothaman, 2005). Due to flaws in implementation and redistribution, encroachment of revenue lands, forest lands, lakes and comparatively productive private lands became prevalent. Instead of tackling the problem of encroachment head-on, successive governments frequently ‘regularized’ illegal and encroached lands and constructions, thus encouraging further encroachments. Land Acquisition Act and land use Acquiring land from public, common and private owners for infrastructure projects carried out either by the state or by the private sector has been legally enforced throughout India through the Land Acquisition Act formulated in 1894 and amended several times since then. Acquisitions for development projects (dams, roads, hospitals, power plants, industries, etc.) have helped economic growth by providing access to markets, inducing investment and providing jobs. But the trade-offs (opportunity costs), exclusive means of acquisition (local governments do not have authority), the coercive power of the government, and the inequitable distribution of


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benefits have been major issues of legal and social concern. This is especially so when: 1. privately owned lands are taken away from those who were dependent on the land, leading to loss of livelihoods; 2. the compensation and relief amount paid for relocation is not adequate for improving, or even sustaining, the quality of life of the affected population; 3. the proposed land use in the acquired land or relocated landscape affects livelihoods of the population in the surrounding areas (through pollution, submergence, deforestation and so on). Rumours about land acquisition, various notifications as part of the acquisition process, the long and inefficient process of acquisition, the official compensation package and the actual compensation received all create uncertainty, leading to unsustainable methods of land use. Though land acquisition can contribute to sustainability by helping socio-ecological causes, in many cases it has led to widespread dissatisfaction, undermining social sustainability. Two industrial policies that trigger acquisition of agricultural land are described below. Special Economic Zones and agricultural land use Special Economic Zones (SEZ) are areas created to provide autonomous, incentive-providing environments for private enterprises to establish their industrial units in a specific region. After the Special Economic Zone Act was passed in 2005, many states, including Karnataka, proposed various SEZ proposals and have since then provided various incentives. These include: (a) partial or complete tax waivers for enterprises that will be within the SEZ, as well as enterprises that build the infrastructure within SEZ; (b) unrestricted access to imports and Foreign Direct Investment for many types of industries; (c) subsidized resources like water and electricity used within the SEZ; and (d) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) waiver for setting up new industries within the SEZ. The central objectives of the SEZ policy are increased foreign investments and employment, but it has direct land use consequences in the agricultural landscape. As of January 2010, 52 SEZs had received formal approval, nine SEZs had been approved in principle and 29 had been notified.5 This would take up nearly 11 000 hectares of land, mostly near Bangalore and second tier cities. Land notified or planned to be acquired for SEZs includes land that is currently being used for agriculture. While the amount of land currently notified (as in December 2009) for establishing SEZs is only about


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2026 hectares, once all the approved projects are implemented, there will be long-lasting effects on land use in the state. The media have widely reported the public discontent against the notification of agricultural lands for the purpose of SEZs. Recently the Karnataka government announced that it will not acquire land for SEZs and will leave it to the private companies to buy land from the people in the open market. It has also announced new compensation and rehabilitation packages to those who will lose their land. After widespread protests in many regions, and public pressure, the central government agreed to rethink their strategy in order to make the SEZ policy more equitable. There are, for example, proposals to allow food processing industries under SEZs with shareholdings by the landowners. Thus the way SEZ Act will finally emerge will have important implications for the regional cropping pattern. Karnataka Industrial Area Development Act The Act was passed in 1966 in Karnataka to enable the Karnataka Industrial Area Development Board (KIADB) to find, acquire and develop land suitable for public and private industries to function within the state. Since 1997 the KIADB has acquired vast areas of land and handed them over to private infrastructure companies. This may result in efficient use of waste and barren lands; however, since it is solely left to the KIADB and the state government to select areas ‘suited’ to industrial development, with no role for the local governments, productive agricultural lands are also acquired for establishing industries. So far more than 12 000 ha6 of land have been acquired by KIADB and the state of the evicted land and farmers is not monitored by anyone. Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGREGS) and land use Passed in 2005 to enhance livelihood security in rural India, the MGREGS guarantees 100 days of work a year within the boundary of a Grama Panchayat7 for a member of any household as unskilled manual labour. This policy was earlier being implemented in 200 districts in the country and has been extended to all districts of the country since May 2008. This may influence land use indirectly by providing rural infrastructure such as irrigation ponds and check dams, and could curtail out-migration and fallows. Its effects are predicted to be generating productive assets, protecting the environment, empowering rural women, reducing rural–urban migration and fostering social equity. Wherever attention is paid to create assets such as small agricultural ponds, cleansing village lakes and so on, the policy can help improve the


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ecological services of the area. The scheme was applied to five districts in Karnataka during the first year and extended to 23 districts in the second year. Studies on the impacts of the scheme have so far largely focused on employment generation or governance (for example Shah, 2007; Ambasta et al., 2008; Gopal, 2009) and not on its potential indirect impact on agricultural sustainability. Public distribution policy and systems affecting agricultural pattern The Public Distribution System (PDS) of India is the biggest of its kind in the world, aimed at reducing food insecurity in the country. The policy gives periodic, supplementary rations (mainly) to people below the poverty line at subsidized rates under the joint responsibility of central and state governments. The PDS is enforced legally through the Essential Commodities Act, passed in 1955 at the national level. The central government takes care of procurement, storage, bulk allocation and transportation of food grains and other essential agricultural commodities, while the state government has the responsibility of identifying people below the poverty line, together with distributional and operational supervision. The PDS affects land use by giving price signals for crop production choices, and through influencing demand and dietary patterns based on the grains that are available through the PDS. The existing and the potentially needed stock of food grains within the PDS often decide procurement prices, the import–export policy of food grains and, in some cases, also the dietary habits of the people depending on it. If the PDS popularizes a few grains, changing the food patterns, it can adversely affect the agro-biodiversity and hence land use pattern. Watershed development policy Realizing that the mainstream irrigation methods had limited scope for expansion in the context of semi-arid regions, both the central and state governments have been emphasizing watershed development initiatives. The policy envisions sustainable use of both surface and groundwater, by optimizing the water table and groundwater extraction, recharging and maintaining available watersheds, and advising farmers about sustainable utilization of ground and surface water. Seven major river basins and 380 watersheds have been identified in Karnataka where watershed development policies can be implemented using specific projects for specific locations. The Watershed Department of the state has more than eight projects with different goals, based on location-specific needs. Successful watershed development projects not only help in increasing the productivity of agriculture, they also help in building the capacities of rural communities


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in decisions ranging from choosing the right mix of crops to participatory governance. However, watershed development policies are rarely consistent with related policies and institutions of irrigation and agricultural extension. Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI) remain to be integrated with sectoral interventions, and with demand side interventions, which have been totally ignored. Policies for commercial diversification in agriculture To increase profitability from agriculture, it has been the policy of successive governments, both at the centre and the state level, to encourage commercial diversification (Gupta, 2002; Government of Karnataka, 2006; 2007; Government of India, 2007. This entails a complete or partial switch from subsistence to commercial farming, increasing the substitution of staple crops like millets by commercial crops. While a policy with this title has not received legal sanction, various incentives for changing agricultural land use are provided through subsidies and loans with the purpose of encouraging commercialization. These policies influence agricultural land use directly. Land allotted to commercial crops in Karnataka (fruit and flower crops, areca nut, sugarcane, maize etc.) has increased considerably over the years. The economic profitability of switching to commercial crops is achieved if rainfall/irrigation is good, production is successful and a favourable market/price regime exists. But the existence of safety nets to save farmers in the case of crop/market failure is also vital. However, the incentives provided for commercial diversification are limited to loans and subsidies for building the required special physical infrastructure for such crops, and inputs in the form of seeds, fertilizers, equipment and machinery. The diversification policy is not consistent with the local land use and crop preferences, watershed development schemes and the price and procurement policy.8 Hence, commercialization often leads to dangerous risks, resulting in distress situations rather than the intended consequence of increasing the economic profitability of agriculture. The drive to commercialization lacks a holistic approach to sustain the profitability at different scales of acreage and input intensity, reflected in the five policies mentioned below. National agricultural price policy and cropping pattern The price policy sets the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) at which the government buys agricultural produce from farmers throughout the country. The policy is monitored by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP). Initially formulated to encourage green


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revolution technology and rational allocation of land, the decision on fixing MSPs includes factors like the cost of cultivation, input prices and general price indices, minimizing the effects of international market shocks on farmers, providing remunerative prices and improving the terms of trade for agriculture. The price policy sets prices for crops of national importance such as paddy, wheat and jowar. For regionally important crops, state commissions decide the MSPs. If used effectively, MSPs can send appropriate signals in choosing a crop mix, production practices and post-harvesting decisions. But political interference often results in MSPs being changed after being formulated by CACP, sending the wrong signals to farmers, and leading to unintended land use patterns. Historically, the policy has been biased towards commercial crops such as sugarcane, oilseeds, pulses and cotton, thus considerably influencing agricultural land use decisions towards these crops. Deshpande and Naik (2002) report that, in Karnataka, during the period between 1980 and 2001, the growth rate in MSPs was 11.55, 11.50, 10.18 and 10.17 per cent respectively for tur (pigeon pea), sugarcane, ragi (finger millet) and paddy. Differential levels and growth rates of MSP may have affected the acreages allotted to traditional cropping patterns. The agricultural price policy has been cited as a significant tool in ensuring food security and equitable economic development in the country (Acharya, 1997), though studies now show that in Karnataka, MSPs have not been effective in achieving their intended objectives (Deshpande and Naik, 2002). The low density of local procurement centres (about four markets per 100 000 hectares of gross cropped area), and lack of efficient trading measures have resulted in the policy only influencing some crops in some regions, and these are, mostly limited to large and medium sized farm holdings. Agricultural subsidy policy and land use India’s agricultural subsidy policy provides incentives for inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, seeds and irrigation water at discounted prices. Inputs are subsidized at the producer level (industries) and in distribution of irrigation water. Subsidies are provided as public investment in irrigation projects such as dams and channels, and in the form of electricity for lift irrigation. Agricultural subsidies along with price support were an effort to provide incentives to farmers in adopting particular crops and technologies. However, recent trends show that while public sector spending on agriculture in terms of infrastructure and extension has reduced, input subsidies to industries have significantly increased. In 1999, the total state expenditure on agriculture in Karnataka was about


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1.97 billion INR (USD44 million) while the state’s subsidy on fertilizer, electricity and irrigation was 9.32 billion INR (USD207 million), 22.32 billion INR (USD497 million) and 4.83 billion INR (USD108 million) respectively (Acharya and Jogi, 2004). This shows that the bulk of subsidy payments go to electricity, fertilizers and irrigation canals. A major portion of these subsidies are used by large and medium farms. At the national level, sugarcane receives the highest subsidies per hectare (INR 5623 (USD125)) followed by wheat and paddy. Along with the subsidies provided by the Centre, Karnataka government provides additional subsidies. For example, Bt Cotton seeds were subsidized by almost 50 per cent in the state in 2007 (Prabhu, 2007). Karnataka ranks sixth in the country in terms of total farm input subsidies per hectare of gross cropped area (INR 3015 (USD 67)). Farmers’ decisions regarding the crop mix as well as the intensity of cultivation depend on the cost of the operation, which in turn is affected by the subsidy regime. The increase in acreage of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane, paddy and plantation crops in dry regions is evidence of the impact of subsidies on agricultural land use in Karnataka, though most farmers in Karnataka have not even been able to reduce their costs of cultivation (Damodaran, 2001). Subsidized inputs are known to result in imbalanced use of resources, leading to soil degradation and water pollution, harming downstream land as well. While subsidizing the use of chemical fertilizers may increase crop yield in the short term, it has three negative externalities: soil productivity loss; fossil fuel depletion; and pollution of water bodies. At the same time, subsidizing natural fertilizers such as farm yard manure or green manure generates positive externalities. It would require pressure from international commitments, civil society organizations and political will to redirect agricultural subsidies towards long-term sustainability of farming and food security. Agricultural trade policy and land use The Indian economy was protected to a large extent from international competition until the 1990s. However, as the economy opened up with liberalization policies, India also became a signatory to international trade agreements under the World Trade Organization. Trade agreements have resulted in the liberalization of import and export controls and removal of quantitative restrictions. Predicted effects of this trade policy were increased agricultural exports, increased domestic demand and higher competitiveness of Indian farmers by providing price signals for decision making. When international and inter-state agricultural trade was restrictive, these price signals were limited to the local market


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for most crops, but ensured some predictability. However, with the liberalization of these restrictions, farm gate and market prices have been volatile. This price volatility, together with increasing cultivation costs at home and stagnated yields, have been directly linked to agrarian distress in crops such as cotton in Maharashtra and spices in Kerala (Jeromi, 2007; Shroff, 2008). Despite real farm harvest prices showing a declining trend, the prices of food commodities have increased. Moreover, as trade policies are progressively revised, a stable trade policy regime has been absent in the farm sector since the 1990s. While studies showing the effects of liberalized trade policy on agriculture agree that liberalization improved the terms of trade for agriculture (by reducing protection for the manufacturing sector) it also reduced public sector investment in agriculture (as part of fiscal reforms); also, there is no agreement as to the effects of the policy on agricultural exports, sustainability and the competitiveness of Indian farmers (for example, Chand, 2004; von Braun et al., 2005; Jodhaka, 2006; Mathur et al., 2006; Vaidyanathan, 2006). The reality on the ground is that after more than sixteen years of pro-liberalization reforms in the sector, India is a net importer of agricultural products (Sathe and Deshpande, 2006) including sugar, wheat and edible oil, and growth in the agricultural sector has been marginal (see earlier section on ‘Agrarian crisis in India’). The country faces nutritional insecurity (Mehta and Shah, 2001; Antony and Laxmaiah, 2008), and more and more farmers are in debt. It is not clear why agricultural trade policy cannot positively impact land use by optimizing natural and human resource allocations, at low levels of risk. Agricultural credit policy and land use pattern The agricultural credit policy in India was instrumental in improving access to institutional credit to farmers during the green revolution era. This was achieved by nationalizing banking institutions and opening new rural branches of these banks dedicated to providing rural credit, for adopting green revolution technology, intensive farming, and heavy and selective input use. However, after liberalization, controls on credit access were loosened. Banks moved towards the more profitable urban sector, ignoring small- scale agriculture. The literature shows that after liberalization, while rural banks have decreased in number, per capita credit to agriculture in rural areas has witnessed an increase, implying that there is more credit going to large operators (Ramakumar and Chavan, 2007; Satish, 2007; Shah et al., 2007). The government has since then started new rural cooperative banks which are funded directly by a National Bank of Agriculture and Rural


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Development (NABARD) and micro credit institutions. These institutions are still in their nascent stage and their effects are still inconclusive, with success reported in small pockets. The purpose and quality of credit services provided is still ignored when compared to the importance given to the quantity of credit. Capital-intensive commercial crops such as grapes and sugarcane take the highest per hectare crop loans granted by NABARD (2007). Other areas receiving funds include land development in dry areas, storage and other infrastructure facilities for agribusiness. NABARD’s purpose-wise refinancing data shows that in the period between 1987 and 2005, growth rates in refinancing were highest for land development (39.2 per cent) and farm mechanization (27.7 per cent). Since 2001, NABARD’s refinancing for Self Help Groups (SHG) has shown an increasing trend, with a growth rate in refinancing of about 44 per cent (NABARD, 2007). The institutional loans provided with NABARD’s assistance are available for farmers holding legal land rights and sizeable assets. Thus, a perverse market for non-formal credit exists for farmers who do not qualify for such institutional credit. This informal credit market is characterized by timely availability of loans at high interest rates. The vastness of this market has prompted input dealers to also serve as credit providers. This coercive mix of perverse policies has in most cases made small farmers take big risks, leading to financial and personal crises. Even the INR 700 billion (USD16 billion) of loan waiver schemes (2008–09) from the central government could not curtail the spate of farmers’ suicides. There are nearly 1.7 million small and marginal farmers in six distress districts of the state in need of debt counselling. Technology mission for oilseeds, pulses and maize India is a leading consumer and importer of edible oils and pulses. Owing to domestic policies that favoured competing crops, oilseed production and yield stagnated during the 1980s. To reduce imports of oilseeds and pulses, the technology mission for oilseeds started in 1986, and subsequently for pulses in 1990, opening newer areas for cultivation of non- traditional oilseeds. The technology mission for maize was introduced in 1995 as part of the food security policy in India. The advent of technology missions, oilseed and pulses production received a boost, both nationally as well as in Karnataka. The stagnation in yields was broken despite several drought years during this phase. National production of oilseeds more than doubled, from 10.73 million tonnes in 1985 to 24.7 million tonnes in 1998–99. Over the years the area allocated to maize increased considerably while its yields showed a marginal increase. A strong growth rate of the poultry industry explains the


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sustained increase in land allotted to maize, maize being the chief input for poultry feeds. When the Technology Mission for Oilseeds was introduced in the 1980s, import of edible oil was restricted, thus raising domestic prices. This led to a further incentive to allocate more land for oilseeds in India. However, with the liberalization policies since 1991, the control on imports of edible oil was reduced. Reduced tariffs on imports made it hard to provide incentives for growing oilseeds and pulses. Thus trade policies (without independent price packages) interfered with the intended impact of technology missions on sustained land allocation for these crops. National Horticulture Mission (NHM) Karnataka state is implementing several activities to enhance production of horticultural crops under NHM in 21 districts, including six suicide- prone districts, covering 13 important horticultural crops from the year 2005, at a cost of around INR 2.9 billion (USD65 million) for three years. The mission is targeted to impact 262 000 hectares. The mission encourages the incorporation of perennial components in farms and could potentially address the biomass needs and sustainable agricultural practices. NHM encourages fruit crops like pomegranate, sapota and grapes with incentives for organic practices. But the land use impact of the mission is yet to be assessed in terms of incentives for diverse cropping patterns or intensive use of inputs.

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION BY DPSIR Figure 10.2 depicts a framework for analysing the problem of agrarian crisis in India, using the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) framework. Exogenous drivers of the changes in the agrarian sector are found in population, technology and industrialization. While population exerts pressure on land directly, the impact of the last two is mediated by government policies which, as described above, are numerous and wide- ranging. Rural and urban population growth impacts the agrarian sector and is also impacted by the sector. For instance, when agriculture fails, outmigration from villages overcrowds the cities leading to a surge in urban demand for resources. At the same time it imparts changes in crops and practices back in the villages (due to both rural labour shortage and varying urban demand). Evolution of suitable technology for agriculture and food processing as well as suitable infrastructure for storage and


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Underlying drivers: population growth, climate

Policies: land reforms, public

change, economic growth, technology development

distribution, agricultural prices, fertilizer subsidy, watershed

D

development, land conversion, Proximate drivers: adoption of technologies,

commercialization

migration, HYV seeds, access to credit, irrigation

P

Decrease in pastures, livestock number and variety Increase in fallow land Increase in commercial crop acreage Conversion of agricultural land for industries and infrastructure Increase in food demand and prices Input intensification

Indicators

S

Environmental:

Economic:

Social:

land cover,

income,

public awareness,

soil erosion,

food production,

safe drinking water,

biodiversity

pasture production

food security employment in ecotourism


I

Land use functions: Environmental: abiotic resources, biotic resources and ecosystem services Economic: land-based production, financial services Social: provision of work, food security, social capital

Policy options

R

Organic farming policy, New fertilizer policy, Food Security Act 2010 Low External Input Sustainable Agriculture (LEISA): NGO-led practices Soil and water conservation techniques

Figure 10.2 DPSIR framework of the case study in India transport affect the choice of crops and practices, and these are almost always mediated through the government, as agriculture is the most visible decentralized government department. Policies provide incentives or disincentives for adoption of new technology and migration from rural areas.


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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (SD) AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES Sustainable Development Objectives in Karnataka Agriculture Bearing in mind the SD objectives of the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) in the context of the agrarian crisis in Karnataka, the policy option on which we focus is the Karnataka State Policy on Organic Farming (KSPoOF) (Government of Karnataka, 2004), which has recently been introduced in the state. The policy was formulated in order to achieve a significant positive impact on the three dimensions of sustainable development: environmental, financial and social. KSPoOF, introduced in March 2004, aims at promoting sustainable agriculture in the state, envisages organic farming with internally generated inputs and emphasizes natural and human resources. This is in line with the direction the Government of India is taking in the National Programme for Organic Production (Government of India, 2005), and the logo ‘India Organic’. KSPoOF involves selecting villages based on certain criteria and implementing various activities to augment natural input use, marketing of these products and so on, in phases. The policy in 2004 was implemented in one village in each district of the state, and was in 2006 extended to one village in every taluk (block). In 2008, an organic farming mission was also established in the state, which is implemented by a trust formed by a group of 300 farmers in each district without NGO intervention. SD Indicators in the Context of KSPoOF The causal chain analysis of policy drivers and system framework helps to identify indicators of sustainability for the small farm sector of the state. Although sustainable and unsustainable practices can be differentiated, a gap is identified between policy discussions and scientific assessment of change in sustainability of agriculture systems (see also Walter and Stutzel, 2009). Change in agricultural sustainability in its three dimensions may be assessed by measuring indicator values for the impact of land use, based on land use functions (LUF). Each LUF is characterized by a set of potential indicators as in Table 10.2 and explained below. The environmental role of a farmland consists of holding/provision of abiotic resources (LUF1) that are affected by land use, especially water and soil resources, and sustaining biotic resources (LUF2 and LUF3)


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Table 10.2 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimension Sustainable development pillar


LUF indicator

ENV 1 ENV 2

Abiotic resources (LUF1) Biotic resources (LUF2)

ENV 3 ECO 1 ECO 2 SOC 1

Ecosystem services (LUF3) Land-based production (LUF4) Financial services (LUF5)) Provision of work (LUF6))

SOC 2

Food security (LUF7)

SOC 3

Social capital (LUF8)

Soil organic carbon Soil micro flora, agro-biodiversity Water quality Farm output, Net income Access to credit Employment in own and other farms Proportion of food from farm Equity (Disparity), Collective actions

including field crops, trees, animals and soil micro-flora. The SD indicators under each LUF are specified in Table 10.2. Change in soil organic carbon levels, agro-biodiversity and water quality indicate the impact on the environmental dimension of sustainability. Land provides space where residential, social and productive human activities take place in a concentrated form. Land also provides space for production activities (LUF4) such as crop harvest and animal rearing, allowing income generation. These production activities impact financial services (LUF5) such as access to credit for further investments. In the small farm context, employment generated by own land and other sources is reflected in LUF6. The proportion of food from own farms could reflect farm-level food security (LUF7). Collective action among the households as well as level of conflicts within the village represent the cohesive advantage that the community possesses as social capital (LUF8) specific in social interactions. Similarly, LUF8 reflects cohesion and synergy and is a function of equity (distributed welfare across classes and castes) and disparity (measured in terms of income as well as asset).

CONCLUSION Analysis of policy impacts on farming involves quantitatively understanding the impacts of specific policies on agricultural land use, and linking


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these changes to the ecological and socio-economic status of farming. This has to be set against the backdrop of the role played by political power balance and social welfare perspectives in realizing sustainability objectives in a democratic economy. In this chapter the socio-economic dimension of sustainability is of special focus in Karnataka and other states in India. The DPSIR framework reveals empirical linkages between policies, land use, cropping pattern and sustainability of small-scale agriculture. The policies identified as influencing the agrarian status in Karnataka are mainly, but not exclusively, those using economic incentives. Particular focus is on the relatively recent policy of encouraging organic farming, which appears to have the potential of having a positive impact on all three dimensions of sustainable development: environmental (such as reducing soil deterioration), economic (by stabilizing yields and reducing input costs) and social (by encouraging collaborative efforts at village level). Commercial diversification policies commonly prevalent in Indian agriculture seem to be crucial in determining the current and future patterns of agricultural land use. These policies are explicitly or implicitly aimed at increasing the contribution of agriculture to national income and hence risk the other two pillars of sustainability, namely social and ecological dimensions. Though policies related to agricultural trade, prices and credit are often perceived as drivers of agrarian crisis, the socio-ecological repercussions implicit in the ideology of commercial diversification as a cure for all are mostly ignored. While policies with historical and social implications, such as land reforms, continue to influence farming and land use decisions, newer economic and welfare policies have the potential to significantly determine land use decisions in the future, having strong forward and backward linkages with land use. With agricultural trade liberalization in the last decade, the technology missions for oilseeds and pulses seem to have lost the momentum gained during the 1980s and 1990s. Thanks to strong inter‑linkages with a booming poultry sector, the technology mission for maize continues to succeed. Though watershed development policies have the potential to influence land use on a large scale, their actual impact has been less intensive, while SEZs, being executed on a comparatively smaller scale (in Karnataka), seem to have a larger potential to impact current and future land use decisions. Furthermore, the effectiveness of implementation of policies, and hence their impacts, also depend on the strength of decentralized governance frameworks like the Panchayati Raj Institutions as in the case of NREGA. Democratic governance could be both strength and weakness as this slows down


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cognitive changes in policies, nevertheless reflecting grassroots realities in policy formulation. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and negotiations also have a proven influence on domestic agricultural policies (NAAS, 2006). Above all, looming large is global climatic change, increasing the vulnerability of rain-dependent small agriculturists. Amidst these constraints, to manoeuvre policy directions towards socio-ecological sustainability, India needs equitable dreams and political will.

NOTES 1. See Assadi, 1998; Revathi, 1998; Vasavi, 1999; Ranjani, 2003; Guttal, 2004; Vidyasagar and Chandra, 2004; Deshpande and Prabhu, 2005; Sainath 2007; and Swaminathan, 2007 for academic and media coverage of farmers’ suicides in Karnataka. 2. Currency conversion rate: USD1 = 44.95 INR (mean value in November 2010). 3. For the analysis in this chapter we aggregate the three new districts which were formed recently (Yadgir, Ramanagara and Chikkaballapur) with their respective parent districts. 4. Rainfall and net area irrigated has a correlation of 0.87 in the years 1995–2003. 5. Based on the documents available on the SEZ website (http://sezindia.gov.in), hosted by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, accessed last on 25 January 2010. 6. http://www.kiadb.in/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=62&Itemid=46, accessed 28 January 2010. 7. Grama Panchayats (GPs) are village-level Panchayat Raj Institutions (PRIs). PRIs are democratic local self governments established at the district, taluk (block) and village levels to attain decentralized governance and regional autonomy. 8. For example, instances have been noted where commercialization policies induce farmers to grow crops like sugarcane in areas not suited to its cultivation.

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National Bank of Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) (2007), ‘Karnataka State Focus Paper 2006–07’, New Dehli: NABARD. Prabhu, N. (2007), ‘Subsidy for Bt cotton seeds from next kharif ’, accessed 5 May 2008 at www.thehindu.com/2007/10/24/stories/2007102458880500.htm. Punnathara, C.J. (2007), ‘Fielding farm challenges’ accessed 28 December at http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/12/28/stories/2007122850140800. htm. Purushothaman, S. (2005), ‘Land-use strategies for tribals: a socio economic analysis’, Economic and Political Weekly, 40(53), 5611–19. Purushothaman, S. and S. Kashyap (2010), ‘Trends in land use and crop acreages in Karnataka and their repercussions’, Karnataka Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 23(2), 330–33. Ramakumar, R. and P. Chavan (2007), ‘Revival of agricultural credit in the 2000s: an explanation’, Economic and Political Weekly, 42(52), 57–63. Ranjani (2003), ‘Farmers’ suicides: an extreme facet of the agrarian crisis’, Communist party of India, accessed 14 June 2007 at www.cpiml.org/liberation/ year_2003/october/Farmers’suicides.htm. Ray, S. and D. Ghosh (2007), ‘Modern agriculture and the ecologically handicapped: fading glory of boro paddy cultivation in West Bengal’, Economic and Political Weekly, 52(26), 2534–42. Revathi, E. (1998), ‘Farmers’ suicide: missing issues’, Economic and Political Weekly, 33(20), 1207. Sainath, P. (2007), ‘Farmers’ suicides rising, most intense in 4 states’, The Hindu, Monday, 12 November. Sathe, D. and R.S. Deshpande (2006), ‘Sustaining agricultural trade: policy and impact’, Economic and Political Weekly, 41(52), 5337–44. Satish, P. (2007), ‘Agricultural credit in the post-reform era: a target of systematic policy coarctation’, Economic and Political Weekly, 42(26), 2567–75. Shah, M. (2007), ‘Employment guarantee, civil society and Indian democracy’, Economic and Political Weekly, 42(45–46), 43–51. Shah, M., R. Rangu and V.P.S. Shankar (2007), ‘Rural credit in 20th century India: overview of history and perspectives’, Economic and Political Weekly, 42(15), 1351–64. Shroff, S. (2008), ‘Agrarian distress and farmers’ suicide in India: focus on Maharashtra’, The India Economic Review, 5, 204–9. Sinha, B.K. and Pushpendra (eds) (2000), Land Reforms in India, Volume 5: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Sage Publications, p. 243. Srivastava, R. (2006), ‘Land reforms, employment and poverty in India’, paper presented at Land reform, the employment relation and poverty’, workshop, Institute of Social Studies, 9–14 January, the Hague. Swaminathan, M.S. (2007), ‘From killing fields to smiling fields’, The Hindu, Wednesday, 17 October. Vaidyanathan, A. (2000), ‘India’s agricultural development policy’, Economic and Political Weekly, 35(20), 1735. Vaidyanathan, A. (2006), ‘Farmers’ suicides and the agrarian crisis’, Economic and Political Weekly, 41(38), 4009–4013. Vasavi, A.R. (1999), ‘Agrarian distress in Bidar: market, state and suicides’, Economic and Political Weekly, 34(32), 2263–8. Vasavi, A.R. (ed.) (2009), The Inner Mirror, Translations of Kannada Writings on Society and Culture, New Delhi: The Book Review Press.


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Vidyasagar, R. and S.K. Chandra (2004), ‘Farmers’ suicides in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka’, NIRD 64, research report series Hyderabad, India. von Braun, J., A. Gulati, P. Hazell, M.W. Rosegrant, and M. Ruel (2005), Indian Agriculture and Rural Development, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Walter, C. and H. Stutzel (2009), ‘A new method for assessing the sustainability of land-use systems (I): Identifying the relevant issues’, Ecological Economics, 68(5), 1275–87.


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11. Road development and deforestation in Amazonia, Brazil Saulo Rodrigues-Filho, Marcel Bursztyn, Diego Lindoso, Nathan Debortoli, Ingrid Nesheim and René Verburg PROBLEM DESCRIPTION The Amazon biome is the single largest continuous tropical rainforest, and one of the richest stock areas of biodiversity on Earth. This area is highly threatened by deforestation, which provokes genetic erosion and a great amount of greenhouse gas emissions. In Brazil the states of Mato Grosso and Pará are facing a conflict between agricultural expansion (largely due to an increase in the international demand for commodities) and conservation of forests, important for carbon storage. Since 1970, more of the Brazilian Amazonian forest has been destroyed than in the previous 450 years since the beginning of European colonization. By 2005 deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon had exceeded 690 000 km², which accounts for 14 per cent of the whole biome, an area larger than France and Portugal together. Deforestation, especially of the Amazon rainforest and the Cerrado savannas, is the main Brazilian source of greenhouse gas emission (Cerri et al., 2009). This has generated 200 Mt of carbon emissions per year, or even more. As a result Brazil was the world’s fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 1995 and 2000 (Morgan et al., 2005). The present chapter analyses the cases of Mato Grosso (MT) and Pará (PA), the most deforested states of the Brazilian Amazon. An important share of this deforestation is concentrated along the sides of the highway BR-163 (Figure 11.1). This highway is partially paved as an effort made by the Mato Grosso state government to provide accessibility to the market for local soybean farmers (Albernaz et al., 2006). Increasing trade in soybeans under the influence of market globalization has made it attractive for the government to pave the still unpaved part of the highway BR-163, an extension of almost 1000 km. This decision greatly increases the already high impact on deforestation in the surrounding 191


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Source: Applied Ecology Laboratory/UnB (2011a)

Figure 11.1 Case study localization and municipalities within Mato Grosso and Pará States area. The effectiveness of environmental policies aiming to protect the Amazon is at stake. The construction of the highway has already caused intense migration into the area, deforestation, land grabbing and speculation, provoking a fast and intense change in land use. Social conflicts have intensified with this process. In its 1780 km, the BR-163, a federal highway, connects agriculture and logging centres between the cities of Cuiabá (MT) and Santarém (PA). It was built in 1974 and opened for traffic in its full extension in 1976. The objective of its construction was to integrate the highway system with the waterway system, allowing for faster delivery of goods and communication between the Tax-Free Zone (Zona Franca) of Manaus and the centre and south of Brazil. Furthermore, the highway reduces the high transportation costs of soybean exported by the state of Mato Grosso (Brazil is the greatest soy exporter in the world), which still needs to go through a long run to reach the ports on the coast. These goals are in agreement with the premises of the Federal Programme for the Acceleration of Growth (Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento, PAC), which addresses the productive growth and the reduction of regional and


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Amazonia, Brazil case study 193

social imbalances with investments in infrastructure. Following a geopolitical strategy, the paving of several highways that cut the Amazonian biome is part of a project to integrate the Brazilian road system with those of other countries in South America, such as Chile and Peru, allowing the access of the Brazilian production to ports in the Pacific.

THE CONTEXT OF THE PROBLEM Historical and Social Context The pattern of occupation of the Amazonian territory has undergone rapid transformation, especially in the case study area (Becker, 2004). From an original sparse Amerindian population dispersed in a large area, the region has been the destination of an intense migration flow which brought people from all over Brazil over the last four decades. In the beginning of the 1970s, under the military government, Brazil launched the Plan for National Integration, PIN (Plano de Integração Nacional), followed by other land use policy incentives, seeking to occupy what were considered as empty spaces in the Amazon. At that time the strategy was to channel the rural exodus from the north-east region to new colonization areas in the rainforest. The construction of the Transamazonian highway was central to that policy. Since then governmental policies, some of them financed by international agencies (such as the World Bank), have combined the construction of a basic highway network with the installation of human settlements. Landless peasants were (and still are) settled in plots varying from 20 to 200 hectares according to a strategy initiated at the time of the military regime. Moving the surplus rural population from other regions works as a kind of safety valve, preventing conflicts in the place of origin of these migrants, but inevitably causing impacts in their destination (Passos, 2002; Becker, 2004). Despite this, the demographic density of the area is still relatively low (1.6 inhabitants per square kilometre), when compared with the average national density of 21 inhabitants per square kilometre. However, the population growth of 2.30 per cent per year in the period of 2000–2004, and 2.41 per year in 1991–2000, was 50 per cent higher than the national average for the same period. Such features were due to the flow of migrants into the region. The age distribution shows a predominance of the young population (ranges from 20 to 29 and 30 to 39), which is also an effect of the intense immigration. The proportion of non-native residents is more prominent in the municipalities in the northern part of Mato Grosso, where a high rate of urbanization is observed, spread over


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a growing number of cities. Livelihood is still very much dependent on logging activities and agribusiness, with the municipality Alta Floresta as a major centre. Infrastructure is lacking in most of the recent urban settlements. Water supply, sewage treatment, urban drainage and disposal of solid wastes are low. Water-related diseases, such as diarrhoea and hepatitis are frequent. Living conditions of the local populations are very much limited by the bad transport conditions. The small family-scale farmers demand better accessibility conditions and blame the government for having settled them in such an isolated environment. Social conflicts over land ownership, cultural non-adaptation to the forest conditions, and differences of ways of life and cosmologies by a diverse population (Margulis, 2003) are part of local life. Many of the conflicts arise mainly due to poor law enforcement, inadequate surveillance and the remoteness of the area from the main decision centres in Brazil. Conflicts are also fostered by the pressure of agricultural activities in the vicinity of areas traditionally occupied by indigenous populations (Oliveira, 2005). Both small farmers and land grabbers usually disrespect the limits of the indigenous lands, and the construction of vicinal roads along with the expansion of logging pose threats to these areas. Regional Socio-economic Context The pioneer frontier of the occupation of the Amazon follows a trend in which different economic activities are cyclical and each one is somehow a portal to the following one (Becker, 2004; Rodrigues et al., 2009). The oldest agricultural frontiers are found in the centre and south of Mato Grosso, where agriculture and cattle ranching are consolidated. In the northern part of the state and in southern Pará, occupation is more recent. In this region, agriculture is at an early stage, and cattle ranching and logging activities have expanded considerably. The municipalities’ proximity to highway BR-163 and to agricultural centres with consolidated logistics play a major role in the frontier expansion process, since they create networks that make the whole endeavour possible. In order to understand the land use dynamics within the region, eleven municipalities were selected for this study, seven in Mato Grosso (Sorriso, Sinop, Feliz Natal, Marcelândia, Alta Floresta, Novo Mundo and Guarantã do Norte) and four in Pará (Novo Progresso, Itaituba, Trairão and Rurópolis). All the municipalities analysed in this case study were created recently, and have had a high rate of population growth. Economic activities in the scope area of the BR-163 are strongly based on the primary sector. There is a predominance of agriculture (especially


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soybean, corn, rice and cotton), cattle ranching and logging. However, the distribution of cattle ranching is not uniform. There are areas with more intensive systems and others with low productivity. Mining played an important role in the 1970s and 1980s, but has declined since the 1990s. Although the exploitation of non-timber forest products, such as Brazil nuts, cosmetics and medicinal plants is very promising, this is still of low economic significance. However, the number of people occupied in extractive activities is considerable, especially in the areas with a high proportion of traditional populations (mostly indigenous and riparian communities). Fishing is one of the main sources of income for many members of riparian communities. Fisheries in the study area are usually artisanal, and the production is consumed mainly at the local level. Industry is still less developed, although there is a growing trend to increase especially on processing of wood, grains and meat. Commerce and services are concentrated in the urban centres. The state of Mato Grosso is the first in the national ranking of soybean production, which is concentrated on vast estates. Large-scale production of corn, rice and cotton is also important. The agricultural area in the two territories studied in Mato Grosso covers approximately 3.7 million hectares. In the last ten years cattle raising more than tripled, and it is reasonable to predict that in the next ten years it will at least double, even without extending the ranch areas. Cattle numbers are expected to reach around 20 million heads in 2015, enabling a production of approximately 800 000 tons/year of beef in the area. Logging companies generated an income of USD900 million, and 38 000 direct jobs in 2004, including activities of exploitation, transport and processing of wood. In 2004, 8 million cubic metres of wood, constituting at least a third of the forestry sector in the Amazon, came from the area around BR-163. This activity, however, is still characterized by a low value-added and difficulties in the management of the forest production. Environmental Context Originally the State of Mato Grosso had 527 000 km2 of forest, of which 37 per cent (195 000 km2) was already deforested in 2005. Of the remaining 63 per cent (332 000 km2), 234 000 km2 (70 per cent) is still not formally protected, whereas 98 000 km2 is under protective legislation of conservation units or indigenous reserves (Figure 11.2). The north of Mato Grosso represents one of the highest rates of deforestation among the states of the Legal Amazon, more intense in the rural properties and less intense in the protected areas (Ferreira et al., 2005). There are 385 priority areas for conservation in the Amazon, 79 along


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Source: Applied Ecology Laboratory/UnB (2011b)

Figure 11.2 Protected areas in south of Pará and in northern Mato Grosso the region of influence of the BR-163: the forests of Igapó, for instance, which are rare in the low Amazon, and the Cachimbo mountain range, which is extremely diverse ecologically with a mosaic formed with singular forest types, along with prairies and savannahs. Due to their natural attributes and considering the low population density, several protected areas have been established in that territory: natural parks, Amerindian reserves, and other categories of conservation areas (Figure 11.2). The protected areas in Brazil depend mostly on governmental agencies for their management and surveillance. The main hydrographic basin in the region flowing to the Amazon river on its right bank is the Tapajós river basin which serves as a source of water to more than 1 million inhabitants. The main source of air pollution


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in the region is related to forest fires, which release a heavy burden of ash and smoke to the atmosphere, causing negative a health impact on the population, such as respiratory disorders. Institutional and Political Context Currently, land use policies centred on agricultural development coexist with conservation policies, a mosaic of indigenous territories and conservation units in the north of Mato Grosso. Some efforts have been made to define zoning policies. The Ecological– Economic Zoning (EEZ) is an instrument for giving technical support for territorial management and planning. It aims at integrating public policies with civil society’s economic, social and environmental interests. The Brazilian Climate Plan focuses mainly on deforestation control, since this is one of the largest sources of CO2 emission in Brazil. The objective is to identify and coordinate actions and strategies to mitigate emission of greenhouse gases and to adapt to the impacts of climate change in Brazil. In order to do so, mitigating measures are established. Such measures aim to increase the energy efficiency of productive sectors and to maintain and increase the diversity of the Brazilian energy matrix, including the use of hydroelectricity and biofuels. Two types of instruments are combined in order to protect the environment: the creation of conservation units1 and legal reserves on rural properties (Forest Code). However, institutional barriers such as the inefficient presence of the state and failing communication between the national land registry system (INCRA, National Institute of Colonization and Land Reform) and the legal registry system (local registry offices) is facilitating the actions of land grabbers, favouring illegal occupation of public lands, creation of clandestine highways and deforestation. Corruption occurs on several institutional levels. The study region is affected by a complex framework of policies, such as plans, programmes and projects. Such actions, as seen above, can often contradict each other in their aims. The environmentalist lobby represented by those governmental regulating agencies that deal with environmental issues, as well as the judiciary and NGOs, is concerned about the conservation of the Amazonian rainforest, and often has conflicts with the local economic interests. The historical vulnerability of governmental agencies in the area has become more evident in the last two decades along with intensified human occupation. The recent enforcement of environmental instruments is provoking reactions from the local power structure, which represents mainly people who profit from the devastation of the forest. On the other hand, projections of climate change for the twenty-first century which stress the


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role of forests in regulating the global climate represent an opportunity for implementing sustainable policies. Aspects of climate change are indirectly included in the creation of conservation units and indigenous territories, since this favours the preservation of the forest and its role as a sink for carbon and a reservoir of water within the water cycle of the continent (Nobre and Nobre, 2002; Marengo, 2006; Fearnside et al., 2010).

CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS The causal chain of the land use dynamics in the area of the BR-163 has been widely studied and discussed in the literature (Passos, 2002; Margulis, 2003; Barreto et al., 2005; 2008; Torres, 2005; Micol et al., 2008; Fearnside et al., 2010). Several activities are under rapid and intense transformation and provoke land use change in the area. As new agriculture fronts advance northwards, deforestation increases. Figure 11.3 presents the DPSIR framework used to structure this study on the impact of road development for sustainable development. Underlying Drivers Economic growth as an underlying driver The economic development of many municipalities in this case study, mainly within the state of Mato Grosso, is largely linked to agricultural expansion, especially soybean, corn and cotton. Furthermore, historical records show that Brazilian deforestation is strongly correlated with the economic state of the country; the decline in deforestation from 1988–91 was closely correlated with the economic slowdown during the same period, while the increasing rate of deforestation from 1993–98 paralleled Brazil’s period of rapid economic growth. During lean times, ranchers and developers lack the cash to rapidly expand their pasturelands and operations, while the government lacks funds to sponsor highways and colonization programmes and grant tax breaks and subsidies to forest exploiters. Furthermore, as Amazonian soy and meat are important in international trade, and prices are regulated by the ratio stock/consumption worldwide, deforestation is also strongly linked to the global economic situation. The period between the years 2000 and 2004 was important to Brazil, and especially to the state of Mato Grosso. Successive crop failures in the US due to climate problems in 2002 and 2003, associated with the devaluation of the Brazilian currency in previous years (making Brazilian exports cheaper), fuelled the expansion of the area planted and the national production of soybeans (Brandão, 2005). After 2005 a significant reduction of


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Underlying drivers: economic growth, climate

Policies: rural credit and debt

change

renegotiation, infrastructure policies, biofuel policies,

D

conservation policies, agrarian Proximate drivers: demand for commodities,

reform law, social programmes

immigration

Land use change

P

Indicators

S

Environmental:

Economic:

Social:

soil vulnerability,

industry and services

immigration rates, land

deforestation rate,

GDP, agriculture and

Gini, Gini index, poverty

areas of natural

forestry GDP, land

index

reserves, GHG

cost

emissions, remaining forest biodiversity


Land use functions:

I

Environmental: abiotic resources, biotic resources and ecosystem services Economic: industry and services, land-based production, infrastructure Social: livelihood, living standards

Policy options

R

Effective implementation (high governance) of the Forest Code policy and the Creation of Protected Areas Law A revised version of the Forest Code policy and effective Ecological Economic Zoning

Figure 11.3 DPSIR framework of the case study in Brazil deforestation took place, as the price of soybeans fell in the international market, until 2008, when the price increased again, followed by a strong decrease in 2009, due to the global economic crisis commencing in 2008. A similar analysis can be made for livestock. A devaluation of the Brazilian currency, in 1999, provoked an increase in the price of domestic


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beef, stimulating a growth of the herd, which in the Amazon jumped from 47 million in 2000 to 74 million in 2005, accounting for 73 per cent of the overall growth in that period in Brazil (MAPA, 2009). Climate change as an underlying driver More than half of Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions are related to the conversion of forests and savannas into pasture and agricultural crops. It is well known that deforestation causes a double effect on global warming, since besides using practices of deforestation such as fire, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, it compromises the potential service as a carbon sink previously carried out by the forest (Rodrigues-Filho et al., 2008). Brazil is a signatory to the Commission of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (CQNUMC), committing itself to the global effort of stabilizing the atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases. Recently the government presented the National Action Plan on Climate Change in the 15th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, in December 2009. The plan sets measurable targets for the reduction of deforestation in the Amazon, a major step towards mitigation of Brazilian emissions. It is first and foremost a directive, presenting guidelines for the development of public policies concerning climate change, and represents the first actual initiative of the Brazilian government indicating that the climate issue is a policy priority. Proximate Drivers Demand for commodities as a driver The main driver of deforestation in the Amazon is the demand for commodities, in particular meat and soy, but also timber. Though the demand for timber is not the most important driver of deforestation, logging is the first activity in the pioneer frontier region. Logging is a nomadic activity, resulting in forest degradation and contributing to the expansion of the agricultural frontier. In theory, logging in the Amazon is controlled by strict licensing, which allows timber to be harvested only in designated areas. However, there is significant evidence that illegal logging is quite widespread in Brazil. The timber industry of the Brazilian Amazon harvests 30 million cubic metres of round wood each year, directly employing 250 000 people and providing up to a quarter of the potential tax revenues of Amazon states (Nepstad et al., 2004). The industry is expanding rapidly along paved roads that are penetrating the core of the Amazon (see also Nepstad et al., 2001; Perz et al., 2010). Livestock production and the demand for meat have been recognized as one of the most important drivers of deforestation. After logging, the


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30.000

60.00

25.000

50.00

20.000

40.00

15.000

30.00

10.000

20.00

5.000

10.00

Commodity prices (R$)


Deforestation (Km2)

– 2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

–

Year Amazon deforestation

Soya price 60kg

Cattle price 15kg

Source: IPEA data (2010)

Figure 11.4 Deforestation rates (km²/year) in the Amazon (2001– 2008) and commodities prices (R$) one year before the deforestation forest is usually not immediately replaced by agriculture, but mainly by livestock. As the pioneer front moves towards the forest, fields of pasture give way to crops. Pasture and livestock take over from timber activities, because this requires little investment and yields financial returns over a short period (Figure 11.4). Brazil has also been quick to respond to new export opportunities, capitalizing, for example, on meat export opportunities at times when outbreaks of diseases like foot-and-mouth occur in other regions and markets (Nepstad et al., 2006b). In the period 1996–1999 alone, The Amazon increased its herd by about 10 million, accounting for almost 100 per cent of national growth. Currently, about 53 million hectares are occupied by extensive livestock in the Amazon biome (especially in Mato Grosso and Pará). This represents 74 per cent of the total deforested area existing in 2007. Brazil is the largest soy exporter in the world, a success which is mainly due to both developments in agriculture technology and its large areas of undeveloped land, and an increased demand for soybeans as animal feed in industrial agriculture and as soybean oil. High soy prices lead to increased areas of land devoted to soy production. Soybean meal, the protein-rich solid produced in the soybean crushing and oil extraction process, accounts for 65 per cent of the world’s protein feed. The state of Mato Grosso has become the leader in the national production of soybean


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(MAPA, 2009). This trend coincides with the increase in the deforestation of the Legal Amazon, a trend observed since 2000, which reached its peak in 2004. The importation of agriculture commodities from Mato Grosso by other countries, especially the European Union and China (China, The Netherlands and Spain accounted for 40 per cent of Mato Grosso’s exports in 2007) is indirectly responsible for the depletion of tropical forests in Brazil. Furthermore, the recent increase in the world demand for biofuels may increase pressure on the forest. There is a clear tendency for the crops of sugar cane and soy bean to displace pasture lands near the forest. As livestock is an economically very attractive activity in the Amazon region, pressure on land will certainly grow in the coming years. Immigration as a driver A significant amount of deforestation is caused by the subsistence activities of poor farmers who are encouraged by government land policies to settle on forest lands. In Brazil each squatter acquires the right (known as a usufruct right) to use a piece of land simply by living on a plot of unclaimed public land (no matter how marginal the land) and ‘using’ it for at least one year and a day. After five years the squatter acquires ownership and hence the right to sell the land. Up until at least the mid-1990s this system was exacerbated by the governmental procedure that allowed each claimant to gain title for an amount of land up to three times the amount of forest cleared. Although it was not an official rule, it was part of the usual procedures of the governmental agency in change of the colonization of the Amazon region. Between 1995 and 1998, the government granted land in the Amazon to roughly 150 000 families. Forty-eight per cent of forest loss in 1995 was in areas under 125 acres (50 hectares) in size, suggesting that both loggers and peasants are significant contributors to deforestation (Le Tourneau and Bursztyn, 2010). Policies as Drivers The infrastructure policy decision to pave highway BR-163, which is part of a governmental plan, has been discussed with civil society in public audiences that took place in some of the main cities of the region (Brito and Barreto, 2010). The plan has caused controversy, intensifying the opposition among local forces, each one of them supported at the national scale by a different government agency or civil society institution. Soy producers, timber traders and large-scale livestock farmers represent one important source of pressure for paving the road, as the high cost of


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production and transportation is not compensated by the prices paid by the market for the commodity. On the other hand, the paving of highways in the Amazon causes an increase in the rates of deforestation and opens new fronts for occupation (Ferreira et al., 2005) (Soares-Filho et al., 2005). The extent of deforestation near the paved areas of highway BR-163 within Mato Grosso is more evident than in the areas observed on the unpaved portions in the state of Pará. Economic policy instruments, such as rural credit and debt renegotiation with producers, have direct or indirect implications on land use. Together with infrastructure projects, these instruments have been consolidating the dynamics of agricultural land use in Mato Grosso and Pará. Policies for biofuel production within other Brazilian agriculture regions, especially ethanol, have ambiguous consequences with respect to climate. While they support the production of less polluting energy sources and alternatives to fossil fuels, the expansion of their production is currently occurring. However, if not regulated, it may force the displacement of livestock and other agricultural activities from the central region of Brazil towards the Amazon. Policies of environmental licensing protect the environment through controlling activities that are considered environmentally degrading. This is done through environmental impact assessment reports, environmental control plans, and through restoration of degraded areas. Another important initiative is Payment for Environmental Services (PES) addressing payment for non-deforested and recovered areas. This recent strategy for environmental protection also has a social and economic function, paying local populations for maintaining the forest’s integrity. However, the effects of this policy are uncertain. It could result in synergies between conservation and improvement in social and economic aspects. On the other hand, issues such as control of deforestation leakages to areas other than those covered by PES, availability of reliable surveillance tools and definition of criteria to establish deforestation baseline area, can be identified as barriers to the adoption of PES. The Agrarian Reform Law (1985) is a state-led land reform which provides that public land and farmland not farmed productively can be declared as of social interest and expropriated for distribution to smallholders (Hammond, 2009; Pacheco, 2009). The agrarian reform benefits both smallholders and landless people. The number of families in agrarian reform settlements in the Legal Amazon has more than tripled between 1994 and 2002, from 161 500 to 528 571, accounting for occupation of nearly 4.9 per cent of the biome (Barreto et al., 2005). Since 2003 the Brazilian government has devoted substantial and increasing resources to social programmes. Policies for social protection,


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especially cash transfer programmes such as Bolsa Família (Family Grant), have proven important in supporting poor families in the agricultural frontier, which is marked by the concentration of land ownership and deep social inequalities. However, in the absence of complementary policies for training and integration into the labour market, there is the risk of consolidating the dependence of the transfer of public resources by the beneficiary populations. By increasing social security, these policies may also serve to prevent deforestation by providing for other means of livelihood. Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts A heated international commodities market has over the last decade stimulated a strong expansion of agricultural areas from the south to the centre of Mato Grosso state, which replace degraded pasture, dislocating the pioneer fronts towards the north, and resulting in the intensification of deforestation in municipalities in the north of Mato Grosso and in the south of Pará. The majority of this deforestation is concentrated along a so-called ‘arc of deforestation’, which includes regions within seven states: south-east of Maranhão, north of Tocantins, south of Pará, north of Mato Grosso, Rondônia, south of Amazonas and the southeast of Acre (Figure 11.1). Soares-Filho et al. (2005) demonstrate that the paving of highways in the Amazon causes an increase in the rates of deforestation and opens new fronts for occupation. In order to estimate the possible consequences of paving Amazonian highways, the authors simulated and evaluated the relation between paving and the evolution of deforestation. The projections point to the east and the south-east of the Amazon as potential areas to be most affected. In a scenario with paving and low levels of governance, it is expected that forests located outside the limits of conservation units and indigenous reserves will practically disappear by 2050 in the north of Mato Grosso and the south of Pará. Considering a scenario with paving and good governance, based on the enlargement of fully protected areas and rigorous and efficient surveillance, the projections indicate a reduction of up to 62 per cent of the deforestation foreseen in the pessimistic scenario of ‘business as usual’. Amazonian forests have a substantial influence on both regional and global climates (Malhi et al., 2008), hence deforestation impacts a range of factors, both locally and globally. Globally, a reduced forest cover in the Amazon contributes to climate change as deforestation emits greenhouse gases. In 2000, Brazil was the world’s fourth largest emitter of climate- changing greenhouse gases, and according to Brazil’s Ministry of Science and Technology, deforestation has been responsible for up to 75 per


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cent of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions, with 59 per cent coming from Amazon deforestation. The rate of warming in Amazonia has been about 0.25° C per decade (Malhi and Wright, 2004). Evaporation and condensation over Amazonia are engines for the global atmospheric circulation; however, as deforestation becomes more extensive, resulting reductions in evapotranspiration and atmospheric heating have downstream effects on precipitation across South America and further afield across the northern hemisphere (Nobre et al., 1991; Costa and Foley, 2000). The percentage of water recycled within the Amazon basin is now believed to be 20–30 per cent rather than the traditional figure of 50 per cent. Rainfall has decreased, and both evapotranspiration and total cloud cover are reduced. There has been a drying trend in the northern Amazon since the mid-1970s (Dickinson and Kennedy, 1992). Locally, when forest is converted to uses such as pastures, watershed functions are lost, such as purification of fresh water flows, and precipitation in deforested areas quickly runs off, creating flash floods followed by periods of greatly reduced or no stream flow. Furthermore, degraded or lost rainforests reduce the supply of non-timber forest products that are particularly important for forest dwellers and indigenous people. The large-scale soya monocultures increase soil erosion, nutrient depletion and soil compaction, and agricultural productivity declines as soil quality degrades. Hence, large amounts of fertilizers and pesticides are used to boost the harvest in poor soil conditions. As for the socioeconomic impacts, population growth is rapid in the region; it is estimated as 2.30 per cent per year in the period 2000–2004, practically maintaining the same rhythm for the period of 1991–2000 of 2.41 per cent per year. This growth rate is 50 per cent greater than the national mean for the same period. The age structure is remarkably young, with averages ranging from 20 to 29 and 30 to 39, typical in areas of intense immigration. The migration fluxes registered in the area have a medium positive balance, a consequence of the fact that the region has been an agriculture frontier. The proportion of non-natives residents is more prominent in the municipalities of north and central Mato Grosso. In the north of Mato Grosso, rapid urbanization is leading to a high number of cities, though rather small in size. In the central-south part of the state, after frontier expansion, some of the labour force was released from technical agribusiness, causing rapid immigration to the bigger cities. Sinop is the regional centre, with around 70 000 inhabitants, followed in importance by the municipality of Sorriso. The extreme north of the state, however, is still dependent on typical timber activity and agribusiness, with the municipality of Alta Floresta as a major cluster.


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In economic and social terms performance has been good, with aggregate income of around US$ 15 billion annually and a high employment rate, associated with the growth of the agricultural sector and related network services. This economic prosperity is reflected in the HDI, the largest among the projections considered, as well as the Gini coefficient, indicating that the income is distributed more fairly among the population, reducing social inequalities. However, if economic gains from cattle ranching continue to be based on the concentration of land ownership, which is the historical trend in Brazil, the positive social results may be more limited (IBGE, 2009).

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES, POLICIES AND SCENARIOS Sustainable Development Objectives One of the assumptions for analysis, based on empirical observation, is that increasing the economic well-being of local residents through strengthening agricultural activity can be achieved by using unproductive converted land instead of through expansion towards the forest. As for the economic dimension, the target situation for most of the local stakeholders involves maintaining economic growth, increasing production of commodities, and achieving a more equitable distribution of income among residents. A better social condition involves improving public health and education services, reducing income inequalities, as well as improving a sustainable livelihood for small-scale farmers. With regard to the environmental dimension, the aim is to reduce substantially the rate of deforestation and biodiversity loss, and to guarantee the integrity of the environmentally protected areas (including indigenous territories). Selected Policies and a High Governance Scenario to Promote Sustainability The policy options were selected based on the outcomes of two National Policy Forums conducted in Brazil having as the main selection criteria their potential impact on land use change in the region. The policies selected for impact assessment include both existing policies and policies yet to be implemented (described below). The complete paving of the BR-163 is taken as a premise in all assessment scenarios, since the still unpaved stretches between the border between MT/PA and Santarem – about 900 km – are forecast to be paved


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in 2011. It is estimated that paving the road reduces transport costs by 35 per cent, with strong implications for the land use dynamics of the region. Institutional analysis as part of scenario development The institutional dimension is regarded as particularly important in this case, where frontier conditions coexist with institutional vulnerability. Governmental agencies and public policies are in place, but they lack legitimacy and effectiveness. As discussed in Chapter 3, the institutional dimension may be seen as cutting across the three standard dimensions of SD. To the extent that poor governance reduces the intended effect of government policies, this may be seen as a sort of ‘dampening’ effect, reducing the impact of the policies in environmental, economic or social dimensions. (Or perhaps increasing the impact; for example, if an environmental conservation policy is weakly enforced, the outcome might be less environmental conservation, but more economic activity.) In this case study we have developed a novel way of addressing this issue, by building it into the pre-modelling phase (see Chapter 4) of the impact assessment. In brief, the scenarios that were considered included not only variants based on assumptions of high or low economic growth, but also on differing assumptions concerning the effectiveness of implementation of government policies. Thus when forecasting the impact of a proposed policy, two alternative outcomes are considered: one based on the assumption that the policy is fully and effectively implemented, the other on the assumption that governance is, say, only 50 per cent effective; as a result the actual outcome is less than was planned. Although this makes sense in principle, it still raises difficult questions, such as ‘what precisely does it mean for governance to be only 50 per cent effective?’. Clearly it is easier to answer this question when it relates not to governance in general but to the implementation of a particular policy. In this case study we were specifically concerned with two policy options: the Forest Code and Nature Conservation Units (see below). In each case we considered two alternative levels of implementation as the basis for our scenarios: one based on an optimistic assessment of governance effectiveness, the other on a realistic assessment. In each case the assessment was based on expert knowledge, drawing on empirical experience of the actual extent (in quantitative terms) to which these policies have been effectively implemented in different municipalities in Brazil. Existing policies for assessment related to a high/low governance scenario The Creation of Protected Areas Law 9985, passed on 18 July 2000, instituted the National System of Nature Conservation Units (SNUC), provides criteria and regulations for the creation, implementation and


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management of the conservation units in the country. SNUC has established two types of conservation units: Integral Protection and Sustainable Use. Preservation of the biodiversity and other natural characteristics of the territory is the main focus of Integral Protection areas. Economic use of natural resources is allowed in Sustainable Use units, while indigenous land has in practice played the role of a protected area. Brazil has allocated a large area of land to protected areas (11 per cent of the Brazilian territory); however, the borders of the majority of the country’s 60 national parks are not respected (Figueiredo, 2007). Brazil has an efficient system for remote monitoring of deforestation rates, obtaining fortnightly and annual reports, but the infrastructure of surveillance by the competent executive forces is still far from satisfactory. Nonetheless, Brazil’s protected areas and indigenous reserves have had a quantifiable effect on serving as a barrier to deforestation and encroachment (Nepstad et al., 2006a; Banerjee and Macpherson, 2009). As for the existing public policies for environmental management, two aspects are considered fundamental to improving its effectiveness: the improvement of technologies for remote monitoring and the strengthening of environmental institutions, including the surveillance system. The ex-ante impact assessment seeks to assess a high governance situation in which the already established protected areas are fully respected, and a low governance scenario where the protected areas are only partly respected. The Forest Code policy is a progressive environmental legislation aiming at the protection of Brazilian forests. Currently, according to the existing regulations which amended the Forest Code of 1965, 80 per cent of a rural property in the Amazon region, which includes both the rainforest and mesophyll forest, and 35 per cent of the forest in the Cerrado region in the south of Brazil should be left intact as a legal reserve (Banerjee and Macpherson, 2009; Espirito-Santo et al., 2009). However, the problems of surveillance in remote areas, and associated corruption mean that illegal logging prevails (Rodrigues et al., 2009). Rural stakeholders are pushing their representatives in the parliament for reviewing in 2010 the Forest Code in order to reduce the share of rural properties to be preserved. A high governance scenario of the Forest Code policy is linked to an effective Land tenure regularization policy. The Land tenure regularization policy has a potentially high impact on sustainability since it is aimed at bringing illegal farms within the legal system of rural properties. However, the recent effort (2008–09) of the federal government to register rural properties adjacent to the BR-163 highway received a low response from the landowners (Brito and Barreto, 2010). When each settlement is linked to remote monitoring and oversight agencies technology, it allows actions to combat illegal deforestation to be more effective.


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Proposed policy options for assessment (high governance scenarios) The proposed New Forest Code (under discussion in the parliament), involves a reduction of the area to be preserved by landowners to 50 per cent in the Amazon and 20 per cent in the Cerrado. It is argued that this revised law will encourage landowners to register their holdings and come into compliance because the impact on the landowner economy is more reasonable. On the other hand, researchers in the field of environmental sciences state that this revised policy represents a setback in Brazilian environmental legislation with tragic consequences not only for biodiversity but for the functioning of important ecosystems. Cerri et al. (2009) state that if all of these areas are deforested, they would release at least 30 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere – that is seven times more than the target emissions Brazil committed to cut in Copenhagen. Under the new Code, an amnesty would be given to those who violated the former Forest Code regulations up to 22 July 2008. If revision of this law is approved, a great increase in deforestation rates in the Amazon is to be expected.

LINKING LAND USE FUNCTION (LUF) AND INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT A limited number of key indicators that are able to represent the complexity of the socio-economic and environmental interactions in an agriculture-based economy have been adopted. Indicators were chosen according to their potential to represent both the effectiveness of public policies and variations of market forces, while also being able to capture an evaluation of sustainability in each scenario. A number of stakeholders, researchers and NGOs have gathered in national forums and workshops to select the indicators in the Brazilian case study (Table 11.1). This means a degree of legitimacy is reached in the adoption of such procedures. Environmental Dimension Environmental indicators seek to represent the environmental externalities of agricultural activities, especially those related to deforestation, according to land use functions. LUFs are part of three sustainable development dimensions – economic, social and environmental – which are followed by indicators used to build the future projections of sustainable development. ●●

Conservation of abiotic resources: an indicator of soil susceptibility to erosion has been chosen. This indicator shows the areas that are most exposed to weathering forces which cause erosion when the


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Table 11.1 Indicators selected according to LUFs and SD dimension Sustainable Land use functions (LUF) development pillar

LUF indicators

ENV 1 ENV 2

Abiotic resources (LUF1) Biotic resources (LUF2)

ENV 3

Ecosystem processes (LUF3

ECO 1 ECO 2 ECO 3 SOC 1

Industry and services (LUF4) Land-based production (LUF5) Infrastructure (LUF6) Livelihood (LUF7)

SOC 2

Living standards (LUF8)

Soil vulnerability Deforestation rate, areas of natural reserves GHG emissions, Remaining forest, biodiversity Industry and services GDP Agriculture and forestry GDP Land cost Immigration rates, Land Gini, Gini index Poverty index

●●

●●

forest is removed. This indicator is a proxy for land degradation in the area. A high value for this indicator signifies high erosion levels and reduced soil nutrient status. Such an effect of deforestation is likely to have a negative impact on the LUF ‘Land-based production’ of the economic dimension. Conservation of biotic resources: the first indicator for this LUF is the deforestation rate. This indicator measures a potential advancement in the agricultural frontier and can furthermore serve as a proxy for increased emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere. A negative value for this indicator would signify afforestation in the area. Hence, the value of this indicator is a prime signal of the effect of the policies, the payment for environmental services and the zoning policies’ effectiveness at targeting deforestation. The second indicator is the total area of nature reserves (in km2), an indicator which reflects the area legally protected in which deforestation is supposed to be less intensive. This indicator is not expected to change as a result of the described policies; however, it is an important knowledge constraint regarding the ultimate degree of deforestation. Ecosystem conservation processes: an important aspect for environmental analysis is the conservation of ecological functions. Three indicators are chosen for this purpose, CO2 emissions, remaining forests and biodiversity. ‘CO2 emissions’ signify the potential impact on regional precipitation weather patterns, and a potential impact on global warming. The policies aim to reduce CO2 emissions by focusing on deforestation. The indicator ‘remaining forests’ points


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to the degree that ecosystem processes and services are maintained. Ecosystem processes influence plant productivity, soil fertility, water quality, atmospheric chemistry and more, important functions which impact the land use functions of all three sustainable development dimensions. This measure complements the indicator ‘deforestation’ in providing a picture of the status of forest cover in the Amazon. The indicator ‘biodiversity’ refers to Mean Species Abundance, MSA (see Alkemade et al., 2009). This MSA depends on vegetation type, fragmentation of areas, environmental pressure (like nitrogen deposition) and climate change, and provides information about the species richness in the area. Economic Dimension ●●

●●

●●

Industry and services: this function concerns the use of land as a support to non-land-based production, such as industrial and service sectors. Sectorial GDP is the main indicator of non land- based production, and indicates the degree of consolidation of the agricultural frontier. A high sectorial GDP signifies a fairly developed community with established industries and services, while on the other hand a low sectorial GDP may indicate that the area is part of the agricultural frontier. Land-based production refers to the productive and extractive activities related to land use, such as production of crops, livestock and timber and price of commodities. All the indicators are measured in monetary values. These indicators provide information on the price and the demand for different commodities in the area. The indicators hence measure the economic production in the area and the area needed to produce a certain amount of the commodity of focus. High production and low productivity in an area means that large areas are used for agriculture. High prices indicate a high international demand for the commodity and pressure on the agricultural frontier. The selected policies for assessment do not influence these aspects, but these are important potential constraints regarding the effectiveness of the polices aiming at reduced deforestation. History shows that a high demand and a high price for a commodity overrule conservation measures. Infrastructure refers to the use of land for providing the need of infrastructure for production. The cost of land is selected as an indicator for this LUF. The indicator identifies the impact of public policies, such as paving of roads, creation of conservation units and actions to combat and control deforestation.


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Social Dimension This dimension is assessed by indicators related to living conditions of local populations. Social indicators represent the positive consequences of the economy’s dividends, which, eventually, are reverted to investments in the social area. ●●

●●

Livelihood: the livelihood indexes indicate social inequality (Gini index) and overall advancement of social standards, such as education and concentration of land ownership (Land Gini index). Living standards: these indicators reflect the amount of people that are able to reach the minimal standards of living in a given municipality. The poverty index reflects the percentage of people that are not able to afford the staple food consumption.

CONCLUSION Brazil is one of the few remaining countries with large remaining wild areas intact; the Amazon biome is the single largest continuous tropical rainforest on earth. However, powerful driving forces are pushing the agricultural frontier and development of this area. This case study represents a battle between, on one hand, market forces and economic development, and on the other hand, efforts to ensure sustainable development through regulations and conservation of tropical rainforest areas. From an original sparse Amerindian population dispersed in a large area, over the last decades, people have migrated from all over Brazil, motivated by available land and policies aiming to occupy the empty spaces of the area. The land has been characterized by deforestation, land grabbing and speculation, and both small farmers and land grabbers disrespect the borders of the indigenous lands, causing intensifying social conflicts. But recently the actors and the agendas have become more polarized; there is a worldwide demand for land and food, and Brazil is now the largest soy exporter in the world, a success which is due to its large area of undeveloped land and high soy prices. With high soy prices there are market willingness and land to increase the soy production area. Living conditions of the local population have been very much limited by the poor transport conditions, and the local people demand economic development and infrastructure. Simultaneously, there is increased concern about climate change and the impacts of deforestation. Deforestation, especially of the Amazon rainforest and Cerrado


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savannas, is the main Brazilian source of greenhouse gas emission. As a result Brazil was the world’s fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 1995 and 2000. It has been decided to pave road BR-163 despite the fact that development of infrastructure, especially paved highways, accelerates migration to remote areas and increases the clearing of forest. It is in this context urgent to understand how the various actors operate and how the driving forces influence deforestation in this vulnerable and important area. It has been necessary to consult experts and stakeholders to reveal the various relevant factors and the various feedback mechanisms. Currently, land use policies centred on agricultural development coexist with conservation policies in the study area. However, the ineffective presence of the government institutions, associated with corruption of institutional personnel and an economic context (national and international) that favours a business-as-usual expansion of the agricultural frontier, is resulting in a weakening of conservation policies.

NOTE 1. The protected areas can be divided in a series of categories, each following specific management rules. The main categories are: Area of Environmental Protection, Wildlife Sanctuary, Biological Reserve, Ecological Station, National Park, Area of Considerable Ecological Interest and Sustainable Development Reserve. Another important category is composed of Indigenous Reserves, which have a distinct legislation (MMA, 2009).

REFERENCES Albernaz, A.L.K.M., B.S. Soares-Filho and B.W. Nelson (2006), ‘Estratégias de conservação para o programa Arpa’, Relatório Interno, The Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA, Brasília. Alkemade, R., M. van Oorschot, L. Miles, C. Nellemann, M. Bakkenes and B. ten Brink (2009), ‘GLOBIO3: a framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss’, Ecosystems, 12(3), 374–90. Applied Ecology Laboratory (2011a), ‘Case study’s localization and municipalities within Mato Grosso and Pará States’, University of Brazilia. Applied Ecology Laboratory (2011b), ‘Protected areas in south of Pará and in northern Mato Grosso’, University of Brazilia. Banerjee, O. and A.J. Macpherson (2009), ‘Toward a policy of sustainable forest management in Brazil’, The Journal of Environment & Development, 18(2), 130–53. Barreto, P., R. Pereira and E. Arima (2008), A pecuária e o Desmatamento na Amazônia na Era das Mudanças Climáticas, Belém, Brazil: Imazon.


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Barreto, P., J.C. Souza, A. Anderson and R. Salomão (2005), Pressão Humana na Floresta Amazônica Brasileira, Belém, Brazil: World Resources Institute. Becker, B.K. (2004), Amazônia: Geopolítica na Virada do III Milênio, Rio de Janeiro: Garamond Universitária. Brandão, A.S.P. (2005), Crescimento Agrícola no Brasil no Período de 1999/2004, Explosão da Soja e da Pecuária Bovina e seu Impacto Sobre o Meio Ambiente, Rio de Janeiro: IPEA. Brito, B. and P. Barreto (2010), O Estado da Amazônia, no. 15, Belém, Brazil: Imazon. Cerri, C.C., S.M.F. Maia, M.V. Galdos, C.E.P. Cerri, B.J. Feigl and M. Bernoux (2009), ‘Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions: the importance of agriculture and livestock’, Scientia Agricola, 66(6), 831–43. Costa, M.H. and J.A. Foley (2000), ‘Combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the climate of Amazonia’, Journal of Climate, 13(1), 18–34. Dickinson, R.E. and P. Kennedy (1992), ‘Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation’, Geophysical Research Letters, 19(19): 1947–50. Espirito-Santo, M.M., A.C. Sevilha, F.C. Anaya, R. Barbosa, G.W. Fernandes, G.A. Sanchez-Azofeifa, A. Scariot, S.E. de Noronha and C.A. Sampaio (2009), ‘Sustainability of tropical dry forests: two case studies in southeastern and central Brazil’, Forest Ecology and Management, 258(6), 922–30. Fearnside, P.M., C.A. Righi, P.M.L.A. Graça, E.W.H. Keizer, C.C. Cerri, E.M. Nogueira and R.I. Barbosa (2010), ‘Biomass and greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change in Brazil’s Amazonian “arc of deforestation”: The states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia’, Forest Ecology and Management, 258(9), 1968–78. Ferreira, S.J.F., F.J. Luizão and R.L.G. Dallarosa (2005), ‘Precipitação interna e interceptação da chuva em floresta de terra firme submetida à extração seletiva de madeira na Amazônia Central’, Acta Amazonica, 35(1), 55–62. Figueiredo, C. (2007), From Paper Parks to Real Conservation: Case Studies of National Park Management Effectiveness in Brazil, Columbus, OH: Ohio State University. Hammond, J.L. (2009), ‘Land occupations, violence, and the politics of agrarian reform in Brazil’, Latin American Perspectives, 36(4), 156–77. IBGE, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2009), ‘Social and economic indicators in the SIDRA system’, available at: www.ibge.gov.br, accessed 13 January 2009. IPEA (2010), IPEA data, accessed at www.ipeadata.gov.br. Le Tourneau, F.M. and M. Bursztyn (2010), ‘Projetos de colonização e reforma agrária na Amazônia Brasileira’, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília. Malhi, Y. and J. Wright (2004), ‘Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences, 359(1443), 311–29. Malhi, Y., J.T. Roberts, R.A. Betts, T.J. Killeen, W.H. Li and C.A. Nobre (2008), ‘Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon’, Science, 319(5860), 169–72. Marengo, J. (2006), ‘On the hydrological cycle of the Amazon Basin: a historical review and current state-of-the-art’, Revista Brasileira de Meterologia, 21(3), 1–19.


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Margulis, S. (2003), ‘Causas do desmatamento da Amazônia Brasileira’, Banco Mundial Brazil, accessed at www.amazonia.org.br/guia/detalhes. cfm?id=79104&tipo=6&cat_id=44&subcat_id=185. Micol, L., J. Andrade and J. Bömer (2008), Redução das emissões do desmatamento e da degradação (REDD): potencial de aplicação em Mato Grosso’, Cuíaba: Institutio Centro de Vida. (Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Agricultura) (MAPA) (2009), ‘Livestock production and supply’, accessed at 3 June www.mapa.gov.br. Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) (2009), ‘SNUC, Sistema National de Unidates de Conservação’, accessed at 15 June www.mma.gov.br. Morgan, J.L., C. Maretti and G. Volpi (2005), ‘Tropical deforestation in context of the post-2012 climate change regime’, in P. Moutinho and S. Schwartzman (eds) Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change, Belém, Brazil: IPAM, pp. 101–10. Nepstad, D.C., C.M. Stickler and O.T. Almeida (2006b), ‘Globalization of the Amazon soy and beef industries: opportunities for conservation’, Conservation Biology, 20(6), 1595–1603. Nepstad, D., C. Azevedo-Ramos, E. Lima, D. McGrath, C. Pereira and F. Merry (2004), ‘Managing the Amazon timber industry’, Conservation Biology, 18(2), 575–7. Nepstad, D., G. Carvalho, A.C. Barros, A. Alencar, J.P. Capobianco, J. Bishop, P. Moutinho, P. Lefebvre, U.L. Silva and E. Prins (2001), ‘Road paving, fire regime feedbacks, and the future of Amazon forests’, Forest Ecology and Management, 154(3), 395–407. Nepstad, D., S. Schwartzman, B. Bamberger, M. Santilli, D. Ray, P. Schlesinger, P. Lefebvre, A. Alencar, E. Prinz, G. Fiske and A. Rolla (2006a), ‘Inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire by parks and indigenous lands’, Conservation Biology, 20(1), 65–73. Nobre, C. and A. Nobre (2002), ‘O balanço de carbono na Amazônia Brasileira’, Estudos Avançados, 16(45), 81–90. Nobre, C.A., P.J. Sellers and J. Shukla (1991), ‘Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change’, Journal of Climate, 4(10), 957–88. Oliveira, B.C. (2005), Todo dia é dia de índio: terra indígena e sustentabilidade. Amazônia Revelada: Os descaminhos ao longo da BR-163, Brasília: Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq). Pacheco, P. (2009), ‘Agrarian reform in the Brazilian Amazon: its implications for land distribution and deforestation’, World Development, 37(8), 1337–47. Passos, M.M. (2002), Aspectos da Ocupação do Território mato-grossense: a urbanização’, in V. Dubreuil (ed.), Environnement et Télédétection au Brésil: Meio Ambiente e Teledectecção no Brasil Mato Grosso, Paraná, São Paulo: PUR. Perz, S.G., L. Cabrera, L.A. Carvalho, J. Castillo and G. Barnes (2010), ‘Global economic integration and local community resilience: road paving and rural demographic change in the Southwestern Amazon’, Rural Sociology, 75(2), 300–25. Rodrigues-Filho, S., M.A Berçot, A. Tanimoto and G. Litre (2008), ‘Aspectos geopolíticos das mudanças climáticas: a sustentabilidade do Brasil numa economia global de baixo carbono’, Revista Plenarium, IV(5), 84–94. Rodrigues, A.S.L., R.M. Ewers, L. Parry, C. Souza, J.A. Veríssimo and A. Balmfoord (2009), ‘Boom-and-bust development patterns across the Amazon deforestation frontier’. Science, 324, 1435–7.


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Soares-Filho, B.S., D.C. Nepstad and L. Curran (2005), ‘Cenários de desmatamento para a Amazônia’, Estudos Avançados, 19(54), 137–52. Torres, M. (ed.) (2005), Amazônia Revelada: Os Descaminhos ao Longo da BR- 163, Brasília: Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq).


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PART III

Conclusion


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12. Lessons from a comparative analysis of case studies Ingrid Nesheim, Desmond McNeill, Irina Bezlepkina, Floor Brouwer, Youssouf Cissé, Shuyi Feng, Patrick Gicheru, Nina Novira, Seema Purushothaman, Saulo Rodrigues-Filho and Mongi Sghaier INTRODUCTION This chapter draws on the analysis in Part I and the case studies in Part II to identify similarities and differences in practice. What sort of problems and issues are regarded by researchers and stakeholders as of high priority? From an understanding of the complex interplay of different causal factors – economic, social, environmental and institutional – do there emerge some factors determinant of the current situation? Do the terms on which trade-offs can be made between different objectives – economic, social, and environmental – vary widely between case studies: and can one discern patterns here? How important is the governance issue – as a causal factor contributing to the problems identified, and as a constraint to be addressed in seeking to improve the situation? Broadly the points of comparison follow the different issues as included in the case studies: the problem identification, the causal chains, with an emphasis on the various drivers, institutional factors, indicators and the prioritized policies. An important component of the studies has been the involvement of others apart from the researchers themselves, mainly through the National Policy Forums. This process is also described and assessed. Each of the case studies addresses a land use related problem that is of significance in the wider context of sustainable development. They relate to all three dimensions of sustainable development, but with varying emphasis: from a primary focus on the environmental, for example in the case of China, to a primary focus on the social, in the case of India. In very broad terms, however, one may say that the problem in each of the case studies 219


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is excessive use of limited natural resources: seeking to extract from nature more than it is able to provide on a sustainable basis. And an understanding of the causes of the problem is to be found, as the DPSIR analyses reveal, in a complex mix of different factors. Each of the DPSIR analyses contained in Chapters 5 to 11 reveals the significance of economic growth, of increasing population, and of technology.1 The relative significance of each of course varies considerably; thus population growth in Narok District of Kenya, from migration as well as natural population growth, is far higher than in China, while in the latter the rate of economic growth has been extraordinarily rapid. And technology plays a part both directly, for example through the introduction of mechanized farming methods, and indirectly, as technological development contributes to economic growth. What the case studies also reveal is the significance of the geographical level, from regional (meaning subnational) to global: how this varies both as regards the causes and consequences of land use change. The causes of land use change are largely regional. But there are also global forces which exert a significant influence; for example, the international market conditions of food, trade restrictions in many countries, or the international tourist trade. And the effects of the problems identified range from the local, as in Tunisia, to the global – with the effect on global warming of deforestation in Brazil being the most extreme example. Impacts, however, are for all cases also felt on the local level. The seven case studies presented here thus exemplify the varied nature and extent of the environmental challenge facing the world. These case studies are all from ‘the South’; but as is demonstrated by the examples just referred to, they are quite intimately connected with the situation in ‘the North’. Indeed, some of the problems in the South may be seen as solutions to the challenge of sustainable development in the North. Through global trade, rich countries are able to a large extent to pass on to poor countries the environmental problems that result from over-burdening the planet; the ecological footprint of people in Europe is in practice largely manifested in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The market, national and international, is a very powerful force, not only connecting people all over the world, but also determining the allocation of resources. And the extent and dominance of the market is now very considerable, even in the poorest countries studied here, such as Mali and Kenya. This relates not only to the market for the products of the land, but also to the land itself; privatization of land ownership has been an important factor in several of the case studies, bringing with it consequences especially for the poor and marginalized, for example the Maasai in Kenya. This in turn brings us to the central concern of the research on which this book is based: land use policies widely defined; policies as causes; and policies as responses. Many


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Comparative analysis of case studies 221

of the ‘policies as causes’ lie outside the control of local, and even in many cases national governments: for example, agreements under the World Trade Organization, the Kyoto Protocol, or the Convention on Biological Diversity. However, some good examples of effective policy implementation can be found at the regional and local level, and the case studies presented in Part II support the responses to cope with global concerns. Opportunities to steer are often ignored and undervalued at regional level. Still, ‘policies as responses’ is severely limited by the effectiveness of governments in the South to implement their policies. Perhaps the single most important difference between countries in the South and the North, when it comes to designing land use policies for sustainable development lies here: that the former are often far less able to put their policies into practice.

PROBLEMS AND ISSUES IN THE SEVEN CASE STUDIES Land degradation is a phenomenon that has occurred all over the world, since the beginnings of settled agriculture. It has been defined by the UN as the reduction or loss in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas of the biological or economic productivity and complexity of rain-fed cropland, irrigated cropland, or pasture forest and woodlands resulting from land uses or from a process or combination of processes, including processes arising from human activities and habitation patterns, such as (i) soil erosion caused by wind and / or water; (ii) deterioration of the physical, chemical and biological or economic properties of soil; (iii) long-term loss of natural vegetation (UNCCD, 1994). Thus, land degradation as a term encompasses a wide range of conditions of change. The biophysical context – including temperature, evapotranspiration patterns and soil fertility – defines the natural capacity or predisposing conditions for land productivity and land degradation. Naturally these factors vary widely across the globe, rendering some localities and regions more prone to land degradation problems than others. Studies which have explored the extent to which such predisposing conditions explain the more serious states of land degradation and reduced land productivity identify high mean annual temperatures and steep slopes as the most significant co-related factors (Hoffman and Todd, 2000; Nordhaus, 2006). Higher land degradation levels are dominated by steeply sloping soils and occur in generally hotter climates where plant cover is likely to be lower. Highly variable ecosystem conditions driven by climatic variations amplify the pressures arising from high demands on land resources, especially under dry to


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sub-humid climatic conditions. This is the situation in the case study areas of Kenya, Tunisia, Mali and India, all of which experience impacts from aridity and climate change, irregular and low rainfall, with a large impact on the natural capacity for potential agricultural production. Two different types of land degradation emerge from the case studies: one is associated with a declining level of soil nutrients, reduced vegetation cover and soil erosion. This is typically caused by overgrazing and insufficient fallow periods. If land is used continuously with no external inputs, the soil will be impoverished and land production will decline. Most case study areas show symptoms of this, but in particular the Narok district in Kenya is severely affected by this type of land degradation. The other type of land degradation occurs due to over-fertilization and/ or mismanaged irrigation, in combination with insufficient fallow periods. This results in reduced land productivity due to salinization, alkalization, excess irrigation, eutrophication and so on. India and China suffer from this type of land degradation, while Tunisia and Mali shows symptoms in parts of the areas under study. In tropical areas, desertification is the final stage of land degradation, with severe loss of vegetation cover and soil erosion, a process occurring to a certain extent in Mali, Kenya and Tunisia. Land degradation is clearly the most threatening in those areas where the majority of the people are dependent on the productivity of the land for their subsistence. Such a situation often coincides with a low level of economic development, as is the situation in Kenya and Mali. In these areas alternative ways of securing a livelihood are few, and hence people’s vulnerability to reduced productivity of land is greater. For most case studies the land degradation problem has a local or a regional character. An important exception, however, is the case study of Brazil, where the vast deforestation has an impact on the global climate through emissions of CO2 driving climate change (Table 12.1). The deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon can have an effect on local precipitation patterns, but the most serious climate change impacts occur in the Sahel region in Africa and on island communities in the Pacific (IPCC, 2007). Thus the expanding agricultural frontier driving the deforestation process in Brazil is not necessarily felt as a problem by the majority of the local people in the states of Matto Grosso and Pará; although a smaller proportion of the population, namely the indigenous people living in and dependent on the forest environment, are directly and negatively affected by the local forest degradation. Hence the land degradation in Brazil has a very different character from the land degradation occurring in the other cases. At the other end of the scale from the Brazil case study, in terms of scope, is the case study of urban growth in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The


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Table 12.1 Problems and issues in the seven case studies Case studies

Main problem

Brazil

Deforestation

China

India Indonesia Kenya

Mali

Tunisia

Related issues

CO2 emissions, loss of biodiversity Contaminated agricultural Water pollution products, shortage of high due to agricultural quality water for industries, sources in Taihu limited access to safe Lake Basin drinking water, human health Land degradation, Agrarian crisis, Farmer polluted water bodies suicide Deforestation, land High rate of urbanization, degradation, polluted high rate of agricultural land conversion water bodies Land fragmentation, land Loss of land cover, tenure conflicts between extensive soil pastoral and agricultural erosion. Declining societies land productivity Expansion of agriculture, Degradation of land fragmentation, irrigation and conflicts between drainage banks, pastoral and agricultural deforestation, communities overgrazing Land degradation, Land fragmentation, desertification agricultural intensification

Level of problem Global, regional /local Regional / local

Regional / local Regional / local Regional/ local Regional / local

Regional / local

high rate of land conversion of forest and agricultural land to settlement areas in Yogyakarta has some impact on food security, and a substantial local impact on the multi-functionality of the land, but there is generally little awareness among the common people of the environmental implications of this land use conversion. The case study from Mali is intermediate between these extremes; the scale of the Office du Niger irrigation scheme is sufficiently large that it has national and, thanks to its significance as rice producer in West Africa, also regional (supra-national) impact.

DRIVERS Natural environmental change and variability interact with land use activities in complex ways. The understanding of these processes – how


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they interact and what the constraints are – is important in the context of sustainable development. They may be analysed, as in this book, in terms of causal chains in which proximate and underlying drivers are distinguished. From the case studies it is clear that the main identified underlying drivers are economic growth, technological development and natural population growth, and in some cases climate change. International factors, such as trade, also play an important role. The main proximate drivers are rather more diverse: for example, agricultural intensification, immigration and domestic policies such as financial support; and the significance of each obviously varies among the case studies. Table 12.2 summarizes the most important underlying drivers, and proximate drivers, as identified in the different case studies. These display a high degree of similarity – at this level of generality. But the cases of course differ substantially in detail. Underlying Drivers Economic growth is listed in every case as one of the main underlying drivers, and usually the most important one. But the rate of economic growth varies very considerably. China is the most extreme case, having experienced an annual growth of 9.7 per cent over a long period (1978– 2007). But India has also grown rapidly in recent years. At the other extreme are Mali and Kenya, which have during the last decades grown at rates that are barely more than the rate of population increase. The factors that promote economic growth vary among nations and regions, and biophysical conditions often play only a relatively minor role, while endogenous factors such as human capital may be relatively more significant. Foreign investment also plays an important part. Brazil, which is currently experiencing high economic growth, also has a high level of both national and foreign investment. Similarly in Mali, investment from the national government and international actors, such as the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) agreement with the USA, involving massive investments (122 billion FCFA) through an irrigation project within the Office du Niger area, stimulate land productivity and economic growth for commercial agriculture. Economic growth is also increasing in Indonesia and Tunisia, though mainly in sectors other than agriculture; Tunisia’s economic growth is linked to the increasing tourism industry, while in DIY in Indonesia, the economic growth occurs largely in the urban areas, linked to immigration by relatively affluent people creating economic activities which drive further economic development. In India and China, the two cases which have experienced rapid economic growth since the 1990s, there has been relatively low growth in the agricultural


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Table 12.2 Drivers and institutional issues in the case studies Case studies

Main underlying drivers

Proximate drivers & policy drivers

Institutional issues

Conflicting policies, lack of enforcement, weak enforcement of land tenure regulations, corruption Policies for the China prevention and control of ANSP are lagging behind, lack of implementation and enforcement India Economic growth, Agricultural Conflicting policies, technological intensification, credit weak enforcement of development and subsidies land tenure regulations Immigration, land use Lack of enforcement, Indonesia Economic growth, planning regulations weak enforcement education and of land tenure cultural facilities, regulations infrastructure Land tenure issues, Kenya Economic growth, Immigration, weak implementation population growth, agricultural of policies, conflicting climate change intensification, land privatization policies policies Land tenure Immigration, Mali Economic growth, issues, lack of agricultural technological implementation development, climate intensification, subsidies, land tenure change policies, liberalization policies. Land tenure Agricultural Tunisia Economic growth, issues, lack of intensification, technological development, natural migration, subsidies, implementation liberalization policies population growth, globalization, climate change

Brazil

Economic growth, climate change

Infrastructure policy, agricultural intensification, immigration, credit and subsidies, liberalization policies Agricultural Economic growth, intensification, food technological development, natural demand population growth

sector. In both countries growth in agricultural production was linked to increased inputs of fertilizers and pesticides, and, in India, major irrigation schemes. Rapid economic development, as has been experienced in India and China, is frequently associated with an unsustainable


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consumption of natural resources and excessive levels of pollution. The high rates of N and P fertilizers and pesticides have resulted in low soil productivity and polluted water bodies, as most fertilizers and pesticides cannot be absorbed, and run into lakes and rivers with surface runoff. With regard to the social dimension, economic growth may not be accompanied by increased equity. Statistical evidence, together with stakeholder discussions, suggests that the distribution of income has in some cases not improved. Technological development is listed as an underlying driver in three cases. This has, of course, been a significant factor in every country, being closely related to economic growth. The reason it has been specifically emphasized in these three cases is that it has been particularly significant as a cause of land use change, linked to agricultural intensification. This is very apparent in the case studies of Mali and Tunisia, with their major irrigation projects. New technologies could, in principle, also contribute to reducing environmental impact; but this does not appear to be the case in India and China, which are experiencing environmental degradation resulting from the excessive use of fertilizers and mismanaged irrigation. Though knowledge exists concerning specific nutrient management, ploughing, and irrigation techniques to reduce runoff to streams and water bodies, such techniques are only utilized to a limited extent. In China nitrogen discharge from agricultural land to watercourses can be significantly reduced by optimizing the land use systems; however, the rate of wastewater treatment is below 20 per cent (Wang et al., 2009). Climate change is listed as a driver in many of the case studies, that is Mali, Kenya, Tunisia and India. It is surely no coincidence, however, that it is the three countries in Africa – Tunisia, Mali and Kenya – that identify this as a main underlying driver of land use problems (IPCC, 2007). It acts on the biophysical conditions through increasing the variability in precipitation and by increasing temperature levels, thus reducing the natural capacity for agricultural production. This underlying driver accelerates land degradation, and increases human vulnerability, reducing the prospects of sustainable development. Climate change also acts as a driver in Brazil, not only within the country but also in a different manner, through international relations, since international measures to combat global warming are especially important in relation to heavily forested countries. International Factors Although economic growth and technological development are presented here as underlying drivers, it may be argued that these factors in turn are


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determined, or at least very strongly influenced by, international factors. These factors include not only foreign investment (mentioned above) or the export markets for products from the South, but also international agreements, laws and organizations, which are largely controlled by countries of the North: for example the World Bank, and the rules of the World Trade Organization. In order to understand the challenge of sustainable development at the local and national level, it is also necessary to recognize how this is a manifestation of a global challenge, in which the costs and benefits of development are not always equally distributed. In Europe, and in some middle-income countries, the remaining amount of land suitable for agriculture is very limited. Less populated areas of the world, such as the Amazon or parts of Africa, are then used to meet the need for greater production. Increasingly, the land remaining in such areas is marginal, or under rainforest (Lambin et al., 2003). In all parts of the world, agriculture has expanded into forests, savannas and steppes to meet the global demand for food and fibre. The area of crop land has increased globally, with dramatic expansion in areas such as the state of Matto Grosso in south-east Brazil, where the European market has driven the demand for beef and soya bean production. The growth in Brazilian cattle production – 80 per cent of which was in the Amazon – is largely export driven. As shown in the case study chapter from Brazil, international market forces are closely linked with the deforestation rates in the Amazon. The case study of Mali is also influenced by international market forces, though this in particular relates to the West African region. Access to irrigated land for food production is given to international companies as part of the CENSAD multilateral agreement (Community of the Sahélo – Saharan States), and also through other bilateral agreements, which brings competition between farmers and an influx of seasonal workers. International market forces clearly influence the other case studies as well, and in particular India and Tunisia, through increased agricultural exports and greater competition among the farmers. Proximate Drivers The proximate drivers are human activities that directly impact on the problem identified. The main proximate drivers identified in the case studies are immigration and agricultural intensification. Immigration is identified in the case studies as being an important driver, in many cases exceeding natural population growth. It can lead to increased conflicts and environmental degradation, but, in many cases, economic growth also. People migrate in search for better livelihoods and


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the prospects of economic growth; this is often rural–urban migration, as in Indonesia, but can also be rural–rural migration, triggered by government decisions to open the frontier through settlement schemes (Brazil), or to introduce changes in land tenure structures (Kenya, Mali). The underlying reasons for the government decisions to liberalize land tenancy laws, and to colonize depopulated areas such as the Amazon often include the desire to secure territorial claims and national political support to attract international capital and to facilitate market opportunities. Rural–urban migration on the other hand – important in Tunisia, India, Indonesia and China – is often found to be linked with liberalization and modernization of agriculture. The latter generally results in the need for fewer workers, as machines replace humans for certain tasks, and a liberalization policy increases competition among farmers, which may increase rural–urban migration. ‘Pull’ factors are higher employment and income possibilities, better healthcare and education facilitates and also an urban way of life – as highlighted in the Indonesian case study. The environmental impact of migration differs between the two types of migration. Rural–rural migration is known to reduce forest cover, increase CO2 emissions, and in some cases also lead to the subdivision of land into economically unsustainable units such as in Kenya. In fact in the Narok district in Kenya, rural–rural migration has led to a whole new process of environmental land degradation as marginal lands came to be used intensively at rates far beyond the capacity of these areas (Ogolla and Mugabe, 1996; Amman and Duraiappah, 2004). In conjunction with this environmental degradation, social welfare conditions have deteriorated in the district. The continued displacement from their ancestral lands resulted in loss of access to resources by these people, which has inevitably caused a drop in income. Rural–urban migration, on the other hand, is less likely to have a significant impact on deforestation rates, but often leads to increased water consumption, and increased pollution levels due to insufficient sanitation treatments and increased traffic. In Tunisia the tourism sector has increased water consumption continuously since 1990, causing a lowering of the artesian water levels and the over-exploitation of groundwater and deep groundwater. Agricultural intensification is defined as higher levels of inputs and increased output (in quantity or value) of cultivated or reared products per unit area and time. Intensified land use has commonly been the first response to land scarcity in economies not yet fully integrated into the market and is usually linked to growth in the population and its density,2 while the ultimate response to land scarcity is migration for better prospects. Up to about the 1960s an increase in agricultural production was in many countries linked to expansion of agricultural land; however,


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since then the world has increasingly witnessed a decoupling between food production increase and cropland expansion. Due to technological development, agricultural intensification has permitted the doubling of the world’s food production from 1961 to 1996 with only a 10 per cent increase in arable land globally (Tilman, 1999), an increased production which occurred especially in Asia. Agricultural intensification involves an increased input of fertilizers and pesticides, which, if not managed and monitored carefully, as the case studies show, has the potential to degrade land and water, making land unfit for further agricultural production and water to be depleted of fish. In the Chinese case the extremely intensive use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides to increase crop productivity has, in combination with a favourable climate, raised land and aquaculture productivity; however, the agricultural products face a risk of being contaminated, and water pollution and eutrophication affect people’s access to safe drinking water and accordingly human health. India is another case where mismanaged agricultural intensification has hit hard. More than 40 per cent of the states are affected by soil degradation due to water erosion, nutrient losses and compaction and crusting of the soil. The negative effects of agricultural intensification are also becoming manifest in Mali and Tunisia through salinization and alkalization, causing land degradation and a decrease in yield. There is, however, no solution in sight; agricultural non-point source pollution is projected to continue growing for a long time, because these sources are extensive and complex and have limited control. Policy Drivers Note that governments can be seen as a driver both by virtue of what they do and what they fail to do: for example, the provision by government of subsidized fertilizer can lead to water pollution, as in China, while the failure of government to enforce its laws concerning land use can lead to the loss of paddy lands, as in Indonesia, or deforestation, as in Brazil. Policies of government credits and subsidies These policies have a considerable impact on all three dimensions of sustainable development as this tends to lead to changes in economic activities and agricultural practices. The two forms of intervention, however, differ in important respects; subsidies encourage an action by providing certain means, as exemplified in the Mali case where as part of the ‘Participatory land development policy’ the government pays for about 80 per cent of the investments necessary to develop the land for irrigated agriculture, while the recipient takes care of the remaining 20 per cent. By


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contrast, with the provision of credit, farmers incur debts which they have to pay off. If investments do not succeed, the farmers remain indebted, and risk losing their land and means of livelihood. In India access to credit has caused some farmers to take undue risks, resulting in many cases in distress situations manifested by the tragedy of farmers’ suicides. The case study of Kenya contrasts with that of India. Here, in Narok, there are few investments, and few possibilities for subsidies. Access to credit is viewed with suspicion by poor farmers as they are afraid of the dire consequences of crop failure and of being indebted. Further exacerbating their insecurity are the poor infrastructure and distant markets. In general, credit is used in Kenya by the small rich fraction of the population involved in commercial farming. Subsidies directly influence agricultural land use in Mali, India, China, Tunisia and Brazil, having an impact on the possibility to provide agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, seeds and irrigation at discounted prices, and gain increased productivity and increased economic income in return. Land tenure policies The issue of land tenure has been identified as particularly important in nearly all case studies, with important links to the land degradation problem. In the African cases a crucial issue is the privatization of land, especially communal range land, where the stated aim is to bring land into the market and increase economic production. This often results in land fragmentation and increased pressure on the land (Homewood et al., 2004; Lamprey and Reid, 2004; Sghair et al., Chapter 6, this volume). Partly as a result of such changes in land tenure, many pastoral communities are faced with the double challenge of a shift in land tenure policy from communal to individual landholdings, and high immigration. Liberalization policies The economies in Mali, Tunisia, Brazil, India (and even China) have been opened up with liberalization policies. The resulting exposure to international competition further aggravates the situation by reducing net profits and changing production patterns, namely, biased towards a specific segment of crops and hence, due to social and geographical advantages, towards specific sections of farmers too. The process of market liberalization in India has had measurable changes in the Indian economy in general. Rapid urbanization, increasing use of land for non- agricultural purposes, commercialization of crops, volatility in demand for commercial crops are some issues of land use change connected with it. In the context of liberalization policies, there is a significant increase in support provided for adoption of high value commercial crops. Almost


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50 per cent of the farmers are indebted (Deshpande and Prabhu, 2005). Directly, increased agricultural productivity triggered forest conversion and increased land degradation from unsustainable production methods. Indirectly, agro-industrial development displaces the landless and rural poor who have then been pushed to marginal agricultural lands or to the forest frontier. Market access is largely conditioned by state investments in transportation infrastructure. Environmental/conservation policies All the case studies identify environmental policies, though such policies are particularly emphasized in Brazil, China and Tunisia. The dominant environmental legislation of Brazil and Indonesia is related to land use regulation. Brazil shows impressive environmental legislation and a large area of land is allocated to protected areas for the conservation of forests and biodiversity (11 per cent of continental Brazil); however, the borders of the majority of the country’s 60 national parks are not respected and surveillance is far from satisfactory (Figueiredo, 2007). Nonetheless, Brazil’s protected areas and indigenous areas have had a quantifiable effect on serving as a barrier to deforestation and encroachment (Banerjee and Macpherson, 2009). In Tunisia and China the aim has been to alleviate the high pressure exerted on the natural resources. In Tunisia this has been done through various water and soil conservation strategies with the objectives to protect arable land against erosion, control water flows, and decrease rural migration (WSC), but the programmes have not reached their goals. In the Chinese case study the aim of the environmental polices is to prevent and control water pollution and eutrophication; these policies have been quite effective with regard to point-source pollution in Taihu Lake Basin, while policies related to non-point source pollution have generally not yet achieved their initial goals (Jin et al., 2006). Institutional Issues The last column in Table 12.2 identifies key institutional issues. One of the most notable aspects of the research on which this book is based has been the importance attached to institutional factors, by both researchers and stakeholders in all the countries under study, whether seeking to understand the causes of land use problems, or the failure to resolve them. Although less apparent perhaps at first sight, the problems in all cases are framed by institutional factors, including changing land tenure patterns (Tunisia, Mali, Kenya, Brazil, Indonesia), different types of domestic financial support (Mali, China, India, Brazil) and liberalization policies (India, Tunisia, Brazil). Such factors mediate immigration, both


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rural–rural and rural–urban, and agricultural intensification – all closely linked with the sustainable development problem identified in each case. This underlines the great influence that institutional decisions also have on land use in developing countries, contrary to what is sometimes apparent in discussions on the issue. But institutions generally show poor capacity in both regulating and monitoring environmental problems in the case studies, a situation which is an important threat to the prospects of sustainable development. Methodologies and models developed in Europe for explaining land use change are based on a context in which property rights (particularly over land) are clearly defined, where the market is extremely pervasive, and where the laws of government are, to a very large extent, effectively enforced. The countries studied in the book vary substantially in all three respects. In some countries land tenure is often unclear and disputed; this is especially in areas of pastoralism, such as the case studies of Mali and Kenya, but also in frontier areas such as the Amazon in Brazil. The predominance of the market also varies; in poorer countries there are many who live predominantly in the subsistence economy, and in some countries the power of the state in relation to the market is very considerable (notably China and India, although in both cases this situation is less marked than it was). But perhaps most significant is the varying extent to which government policies are actually implemented: whether these are ‘active’ policies, such as the provision of credit and subsidies, or ‘passive’ policies, such as bans on logging or the discharge of polluted water, or changes in land use from agriculture to urban settlement. Weak enforcement and monitoring is reported in all cases. Weak enforcement of land tenure regulation is an issue in Brazil, India and Indonesia. In Brazil colonists and developers may be able to gain title to Amazon lands by simply clearing forest and placing a few head of cattle on the land. It can be argued that such liberal land tenure regulations promote deforestation by settlement. In India, there is an unfinished agenda of land reforms. Due to flaws in implementation and redistribution, encroachment of revenue lands, forest lands, lakes and comparatively productive private lands became prevalent. However, instead of tackling the problem of encroachment head-on, successive governments frequently ‘regularized’ illegal and encroached lands, encouraging further encroachments. There already exist in the case countries many regulations and laws with regard to environmental protection, but a major problem is the lack of institutional capacity and skilled staff in charge of monitoring, surveillance and enforcement of environmental regulations and laws. Even in China there is insufficient institutional capacity for monitoring and


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law enforcement, overlaps and unclear division of labour; for example, responsibility for water quality belongs to several different departments and institutions. An equally important problem is contradictory policies. In Brazil, for example, measures to reduce deforestation compete with measures to develop new land for pasture or agriculture; in India, policies to promote organic farming compete with government subsidies for chemical fertilizers. Weak implementation is a problem throughout, most especially where the potential monetary gains to individuals are very high, as in the Indonesia case study.

POLICIES PRIORITIZED IN THE CASE STUDIES Based on the DPSIR storylines (see also Table 12.3) policies were identified which might contribute to meeting the identified SD targets for each case. However, while the targets identified in the National Policy Forums cover all dimensions of SD, the policy priorities in many cases focus on only one or two sustainable development dimensions. The identified policy options can be divided into a mainly socio-environmental and a mainly environmental domain of the sustainable development paradigm. (For more detailed discussion and analysis of policies, and types of policy, see Chapter 13.) Policies within the socio-environmental domain seek to improve rural livelihoods by reducing land degradation and by restoring natural resources. An emphasis on restoring natural resources can be found in the case studies in Kenya and Mali related to degraded pasture lands, and in the Tunisian case related to increased human consumption and reduced water availability. Both Kenya and Mali experience degradation and reduction of pasture lands due to the expanding agricultural lands. However, while the Office du Niger, the study area in Mali, has the potential to improve as pasture lands with available irrigation water, other solutions to reduce pressure on land must be found for the Narok District in Kenya. The National Policy Forum (see section below) recommended an Alternative Wildlife and Tourism policy along with the aim to employ the local population in the tourism industry to enhance equal distribution of tourism revenues, and to reduce the pressure on pastoral resources. In Tunisia the selected policy focuses on a water-saving programme to improve efficiency of irrigation systems in the fields, so as to maintain and safeguard water availability for farmers. Reducing urbanization and land degradation by avoiding land conversion is the emphasis in the Indonesian case. In the Indian case, an environmental policy, the organic farming policy, is chosen as a tool to improve the livelihoods of the local farmers.


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Regenerate forest vegetation, restore the pastures. Maintain irrigation networks and soil fertility. Increase farm household income, increase agricultural productivity, reduce inequity; Improve education facilities, health clinics; employment, raise living standards. Conflict reduction. Economic growth, poverty alleviation, increase universal primary education, and reduce infant mortality, poor quality water resources, soil degradation

Mali, Office du Niger

Tunisia

Increase off-farm income from eco-tourism by 10%. Reduce the dependence on the land. Increase food security and general welfare of the population. Improve soil conservation measures, reduction of pesticides.

Kenya, Narok district

Policy priorities, mainly the socio-environmental domain:

SD objective An Adapted Land Privatization Policy: restrict land subdivision to no less than 12.5 acres per total livestock unit (TLU). Alternative Wildlife and Tourism policy: encourage local employment in wildlife management and the tourism industry. Policy to promote sustainable pastoral livelihood: promote the development of land devoted to pastures in non-irrigated areas, and animal fattening. Compensatory wood management in irrigated areas: the wood produced will be distributed to the benefit of the inhabitants. Water and soil conservation strategies (WSC)- protect land against erosion; control surface water extraction and use; replenishment of groundwater; Subsidy policy and water prscing: improve the efficiency of irrigation systems in the field.

Policy priorities

Table 12.3 The policy targets and the prioritized policies as identified in each of the seven case studies

Regional

Regional

Regional

Scale


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The SD objectives of Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) and Millennium Development Goals (MDG) in the context of the agrarian crisis in Karnataka

India

Brazil

China

Increase farm household income. Increasing food production, bridging the income gap, safe drinking water; healthy life. Reduce in 2010 COD, ammonia-nitrogen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus by 32.52, 33.37, 30 and 30% respectively compared with 2006. Maintain economic growth, and a more equitable income distribution. Increase public health and education, improve livelihood for small-scale farmers. Reduce deforestation and biodiversity loss, guarantee the protected areas.

Policy option, mainly the environmental domain:

Economic growth of 6.8% for the agricultural sector Decrease unemployment rate to 3% by 2025. Reduce deforestation by 60%. Increase green urban space by 60% by 2025.

Indonesia

1. Convert arable land to forest land near rivers and lakes; 2. Stimulate site-specific nutrient management; 3. Stimulate mechanical rice transplanting; 4. Stimulate the use of biogas digesters in livestock breeding farms. 1. Forest Code; high/low governance 2. The creation of protected areas

PERDA DIY No. 5 Year 1999 regulates the prevention of land conversion especially from paddy field to other functions. Act No. 41 Year 2009 classifies land as protected agricultural land, to be developed to support national food security State Policy on Organic Farming (KSPoOF, 2004): aiming to promote sustainable agriculture in the state, envisages organic farming with internally generated inputs.

Regional to global

Regional and national

Regional

Regional and national


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Hence, it can be argued that the main target of these ‘socio-environmental policies’ is to improve the livelihoods of small-scale farmers, to improve the social dimension of sustainable development, while the tool involves the environmental dimension. Policies mainly within the environmental domain aim to restore or avoid land degradation and reduce environmental impacts, but do not directly target poverty reduction. The policy recommendations in the Chinese case study aim to reduce pollution load in the rivers and the lake, by converting arable land to trees in areas close to rivers and the lake, by stimulation of site-specific nutrient management, stimulation of mechanical rice transplanting, and stimulation of the use of biogas digesters in livestock breeding farms. The case study of Brazil also has a mainly environmental target to reduce deforestation, and seeks to achieve this by the Policies of protected areas, and the Forest Code policy. These policies were evaluated as part of the policy review and selected on the basis of their potential regarding improving the environmental situation.

Indicators in the case studies Indicators are the main common tool used in the project to measure the present status of SD and to estimate (ex-ante) the impact of land use policies in each case. Although indicators may often be promoted as simple instruments for describing the world, on the basis of which our actions can be planned, the selection and the estimation of indicators are usually very complex, as the outcome is heavily dependent on the values, and the worldviews, of those who make the selection. Much scientific work has been devoted to the development and testing of indicators based on a few basic criteria, such as analytical soundness, measurability and policy relevance. The two EU projects, SEAMLESS and SENSOR, developed models to yield indicators for the environmental, economic, social and institutional dimensions of SD. In practice, several of the indicators had to be neglected due to lack of data (Alkan Olsson et al., 2009; Kristensen et al., 2009). The challenge is even greater in developing countries, where data are often less available. The indicator framework used in the case studies is generic (Chapter 4), and based on the land use function framework developed in the SENSOR project (Pérez-Soba et al., 2008). An important characteristic of the framework is its flexible structure allowing LUFs and indicators to vary among cases. The main function of the indicator framework has been to ensure a balanced3 representation of important themes within the environmental, economic and social dimensions of SD. The institutional dimension is


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not included in this LUF framework as this dimension is rather seen as cutting across the other dimensions (see Chapter 3). The selected LUPIS- LUFs have clearly been inspired by the SENSOR-LUFs, but each case has selected LUFs according to the priorities of the case study. The process of selecting LUFs and indicators, and subsequently attaching weights to them, has been an interactive process between experts (project partners) and stakeholders, policy makers, bureaucrats and civil society (see section below). The first list of indicators was the result of, in some cases, a brainstorming activity – not considering the realism of estimating each indicator. The final indicator list was reduced to a manageable number – for most case studies, one indicator per LUF, giving nine indicators in total. Nine indicators are not enough to comprehensively measure SD of a complete system, but may be enough if the analysis relates to a more narrowly specified problem. Clearly the choice of indicators becomes increasingly important if they are fewer in number. The first reduction process – going from a large and quite unrealistic list of indicators – was guided by the following selection criteria: avoid redundancy, but ensure measurability and policy relevance; while the ‘second reduction process’ was guided largely by the availability of data, and concerns arising out of the lack of transparency that may result from aggregating of indicators which have been given a value as part of stakeholder discussions, in forums such as in the FOPIA approach (König et al., 2010). Single indicator values generated by stakeholder and expert groups are to some extent transparent if information is given about the stakeholder representation and the date of discussions. But aggregated indicator values are less transparent because they can hardly be replicated; that is, the basis on which such indicator values are estimated is quite unclear. The issue of transparency is, in addition to criteria of policy relevance and measurability, crucial. Provided they understand them, decision makers and civil society can argue for, or against, different indicators, making it a good communication tool. On the other hand, low transparency, particularly resulting from aggregated indicators and indices such as the LUFs, can be misused by decision makers because few are in a position to argue against them. The principle of transparency ought to rank high among the criteria for the selection of indicators. Among the case studies there is quite a high degree of similarity between the indicators selected. This is no doubt partly due to the adoption of a common indicator framework, and team discussions surrounding this. But it may also be affected by data availability. Thus, six out of seven cases selected employment / employment rate related to the LUF ‘provision of work’, and four selected road network /density related to the LUF ‘infrastructure’. However, the close association which can be found between


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these indicators (related to the LUF framework) and the described chosen SD targets indicates that these indicators describe important features in several case studies; for example, ‘ensure continued employment’ in the Taihu Lake basin (Chinese case study), ‘employment in the tourism sector’ in Narok (case study in Kenya), ‘increased employment’ in Yogyakarta (case study in Indonesia), and similarly with regard to the indicator of infrastructure (Brazil, Yogyakarta, Narok). Another finding is that similar indicators have in some cases been selected, but attached to different LUFs. To exemplify, the indicators water quality and natural land have both been selected in several cases studies, but some case partners have chosen to relate water quality to the LUF ‘ecosystem processes’, while in other cases the indicator is related to the LUF ‘biotic resources’. Most cases have chosen the indicator area of natural land to be related to LUF ‘ecosystem processes’. The use of an indicator in relation to more than one LUF suggests that this indicator (water quality) is regarded as an important measurement of SD in several case studies. However, caution is needed when evaluating a LUF value; clearly the same LUF, but based either on a water quality or a value of area of natural land, provides a very different type of information. In general the case studies have adopted both fewer and less varied social indicators by comparison with the environmental and the economic dimension (not all cases studies included three LUFs for the social dimension). The social indicators selected vary around the themes of food security and livelihood/life expectancy. Indicators related to social capital are not included among the selected indicators. This may be not only because in areas with food insecurity, food security and livelihood aspects are given a higher priority, but also because the concept of social capital and its measurement is hotly debated in the academic literature (Tarrow, 1996; Jackman and Miller, 1998; Mohan and Mohan, 2002). The European SENSOR LUF framework uses the LUF ‘cultural heritage’, while this has been included only in the Tunisian case. This need not mean that cultural heritage is not considered relevant in the other case studies, but perhaps that it is not so crucial in relation to SD. It is notable that only the Brazil and Tunisia case studies selected indicators to measure poverty directly, although this is surely an important measurement related to the SD in all the case studies. Interestingly, the indicator farm income is common to several cases. Another common focus among several of the case studies is on the small-scale farmers as the target group, while the poverty index includes other population categories as well, including urban and landless. This can be understood as part of the reduction process, that is that only a few indicators in total are selected in each case study.


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PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH PROCESS ADOPTED IN THE CASE STUDIES The literature on ex-ante integrated assessment of sustainability of agricultural systems and land use indicates that there have been clear shifts towards approaches and tools which integrate stakeholders and ensure for a complementary use of qualitative and quantitative approaches (Bezlepkina et al., 2011). In impact assessments in Europe measures for the involvement of stakeholders are specified in the European Commission Guidelines for impact assessment introduced in 2003 (EC, 2009); involvement of stakeholders is seen as important to understand the regional and local problems and constraints, build trust, and have an impact on policy- making processes (Lebel et al., 2006; Van Paassen et al., 2007; Giller et al., 2008). Science–policy–stakeholder interactions have contributed to the seven case studies described in Chapters 5 to 11. Initiated by researchers, formal stakeholder interactions have been implemented. Other small informal meetings took place among researchers and decision-makers in several of the case studies.4 The purpose of the stakeholder interaction has been to ensure local knowledge and to promote science–policy–stakeholder interaction in case study countries and to reflect on implications for sustainable development in developing countries of global agreements concerning biodiversity, trade and climate. The following broad groups were involved in the participatory process: representatives from ministries, extension service staff, local researchers, NGOs and farmers. For most case studies there has been a larger representation of local decision-makers, the private sector and researchers than of civil society in the forums, as there has been an intention to use these representatives as experts related to decision-making and policy-making. The stakeholder interaction also provided advice on the selection of policies for assessment, to discuss scenarios and related indicators. In the case study of China dealing with the Taihu Lake pollution, for example, 23 related policies were reviewed by researchers between the first and second policy forums, and a selection of four policy scenarios were presented for discussion and verification: (1) stimulate biogas digester; (2) change farmland to trees; (3) stimulate use of formula fertilizer; and (4) stimulate mechanical transplanting. An important constraint in the selection of policies for the ex-ante assessment has been the suitability for scenario formulation and the consequent (modelling) work. The policies selected needed to be assessable within the scope of existing modelling tools. Some forums also initiated a discussion on indicator weights, discussing different opinions among the representatives at the forum.


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Along with the development of the case study, that is the identification of problem issues, land use policies and suitable indicators, discussions at the second forum meeting became complex and revealed the need for participatory methods. In India a stakeholder analysis was carried out to gain insights into the roles of institutions so as to organize a policy forum that was well informed regarding institutional constraints and potentials for promoting organic agriculture. In Mali a simulation exercise with an interactive multi-agent model (see among others, Bousquet et al., 1998) helped in formulating scenarios. In the Indonesian case study, interactive spread sheets, dynamic land use maps, and guided group work embedded into the so-called FoPIA approach (Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment) were used to study the impacts of a forest protection and of a paddy field conservation scenario (König et al., 2010). In order to allow for a more open environment for farmers to communicate with researchers, the case study of China organized stakeholder interaction through individual or small group interviews with extension service, farmers, government officials and research fellows, to rank the importance of each dimension of sustainability. Not surprisingly different stakeholder groups attributed different weights to the way agricultural production contributes to sustainability (Reidsma et al., 2011). Another change experienced during subsequent forum meetings was related to stakeholder participation in forums; once the case study area and the problem had been decided, local farmers and NGOs were also considered as important representatives for discussing sustainable development impacts as measured by indicators. In certain case studies, such as the case studies in India, China and Mali, the forums were rather targeted at farmers and NGOs due to the nature of these case studies: agricultural distress for small-scale farmers in India, lack of wood and conflicts between small-scale agro-pastoralists and large-scale rice farmers in Mali. In some studies (such as in Indonesia, Mali, Kenya and Tunisia) the stakeholders provided knowledge relevant for assessing specific impacts, that is to quantify the expected relationship between envisaged policy instruments and selected indicators.

DISCUSSION: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TRADE-OFFS The case studies of Mali, Tunisia, China and India all represent serious land degradation problems due to agricultural intensification, although their levels of economic development differ. These cases, together with Brazil, Indonesia and Kenya, can all be characterized by a common


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emphasis on economic growth and technological development and, in recent years, by liberalization policies which have had an impact on investments and economic equity conditions in the areas. In brief, all the case studies relate to problems arising out of the conflict between the objectives of economic growth and environmental conservation, and, to a varying extent, of social objectives also. This conflict lies at the heart of the challenge of SD. The case studies have been instructive in revealing the numerous and complex ways in which this conflict manifests itself; and how policy makers respond to it. First, the analysis has cast light on the factual trade-offs between objectives: how achieving economic growth in, say, Brazil, can come at the cost of the local environment and even the global environment; or, in India, at the expense of the social welfare of poor farmers. The case studies have also been revealing with regard to the value trade-offs, that is what choices are made between satisfying these three, often conflicting, types of objective – economic, environmental and social – whether these are implicit in policy decisions already taken, or revealed through stakeholder meetings. A rapid summary may be made of some of the trade-offs that have been revealed. In India one observes on one hand development on a national scale, urbanization and growth; while on the other hand agricultural distress in particular for the small-scale farmers. In this context, the policy option selected for assessment focuses on organic farming as a solution for debt relief and restoration of cultivated lands. However, the majority of the agricultural policies in India continue to emphasize market adaptation and liberalization (Haque, 2003; Bhalla and Singh, 2009). The history of liberalization policies and technological development is shorter in Tunisia and Mali, but the impacts on natural resources are powerful. Similar to India, Mali focuses on continued investment and liberalization to promote economic growth, while the local stakeholders in the National Policy Forums emphasized the need for policies to restore the natural resources, such as pasture and forest land in Mali. In the Office du Niger in Mali there are lively debates among the inhabitants concerning the impacts of liberalization on small-scale agro-pastoralists. In Tunisia it seems that the recommendations by the National Policy Forum to conserve water resources are more in line with those of the state; however, also in Tunisia the state is simultaneously pushing for further investment and liberalization. Overall, for civil society and local policy makers the important question is: will environmental restoration lead to increased small-scale farmer income, to improved social infrastructure such as education and health services, and to growth in GNP? The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005), a comprehensive study of the world’s resources, found that declines in the majority of the ecosystem


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services assessed have been accompanied by steady gains in human well- being at the global scale (Raudsepp-Hearne et al., 2010). These case studies, however, suggest that many local stakeholders believe that restoration of the environment rather than economic growth will improve rural livelihoods. To be noted is the case study in Brazil which represents a totally different situation; from the perspective of the local farmer, the quality of the land is quite good for continued cultivation, and land is abundant, while economic development and infrastructure is very much needed in the rural areas. But the (often more centralized) environmental lobby represented by those governmental regulating agencies that deal with environmental issues, is being pressured by the international environmental lobby, and is greatly concerned about the conservation of the Amazonian rainforest. What is particular about this case is the relatively low local impact of deforestation on small-scale and large-scale farmer livelihoods, while the global impact on climate change is great. In this case the trade-off is mainly perceived to be between local farmers in Brazil and people on other continents, a situation representing a true challenge to the target of sustainable development. This case study may be consistent with the conclusion of the MEA (2005), of a steady gain of human well-being on a global level running parallel with reduced ecosystem services. But this may be only a short-term phenomenon; in the long term the environmental consequences may hit even harder on a global and local scale, with negative consequences also in economic terms. Among the case studies the degree and the implication of trade-offs between the environmental, economic and social dimensions vary considerably. The case studies clearly show how continued economic growth is dependent upon the state of the environment. In the presence of land and water degradation, as has been characterized in the Chinese case, there is also a reduced rate of economic growth (in the agricultural sector). The environment, soil and water are so polluted that the aquaculture and agricultural products lose market value. Thus, in the Chinese case study, there may not really be a trade-off between the environmental and the economic target: these objectives are mutually reinforcing. Similar, but different in important aspects, is the Narok case in Kenya. In both cases the environmental condition is a constraint for the economic activities in the area; however, the social conditions differ in the Narok area, as people are poor and more dependent on scarce natural resources for their livelihoods. This aspect of resource dependency leads to low social resilience at the household level because if the resource disappears, the impact on household livelihood security can be significant (Adger, 2000). This situation has a central impact on a trade-off discussion, as people’s vulnerability is highly


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dependent on all land use decisions and organization, and perhaps in particular on land tenure issues. It might be that under such circumstances the trade-off discussion concerns the more affluent people versus the more marginalized people. The concept of a trade-off, very much associated with the perspective of the economist, has less relevance in the natural sciences. For example, it is difficult to apply to the case of biodiversity; the loss of a single species is an absolute loss, not simply a reduction in biodiversity. And there may exist thresholds which mark significant discontinuities, where the trade-off is not gradual but sudden and irreversible. The organization and practices of social life and the economic state of a community impact on the ecological footprint (see also Chapter 3). And there are real limits to the ability of the ecosystem to cope with these pressures; in the long term, pressure on the environment will have a material impact on people’s welfare. And the poor are likely to suffer first, and most, for it is they who are most vulnerable in terms of disruption to their livelihoods and loss of security (Adger, 2000). To what degree can a country in practice choose to prioritize economic growth over the environment, at least beyond the short term? The different choices made will at all times be dependent on the world views, the values of decision-makers, experts and the public to make the choice. The varying perspectives of different actors – and perhaps especially of experts and the people at large – have important implications for how choices should be made with regard to what may be the value trade-off, a trade-off different from the factual trade-off between the different SD dimensions. With regard to the latter, experts are in a privileged position by virtue of their scientific knowledge, but the former, the value trade-off, involves a choice for the future on behalf of present and future generations. It is important to recognize this difference in the two types of trade-off, which has implications for determining what the appropriate means are for involving decision-makers, experts and stakeholders in the process of problem analysis and decision-making. The ‘value trade-off ’ reflects differences in worldviews, values and interests of different groups of people, and decisions concerning this are intensely political. Proposed policies will typically impact differentially on different groups: some positively, some negatively. Powerful groups are, by definition, better placed to influence what policies are chosen, and also to frustrate or avoid policies which have been officially approved. Especially in less developed countries, a major constraint to promoting SD is not only the limited resources (economic, administrative, etc.) of governments to implement policies, but also weak governance which severely limits the actual effect of government policies.


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CONCLUSION A major focus in this chapter, based on the case studies, has been on the challenge of reconciling economic growth with protection of the environment. Perhaps apart from the example of water pollution in China, most of the case studies do little to support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis that economic growth will counteract environmental degradation, They certainly demonstrate that the validity of such a claim is highly dependent on the effectiveness of government in designing and implementing policies effectively. Some of the policies which case study teams have chosen to analyse have already been attempted; but implementation has been poor – owing to a combination of weak government and strong resistance. And governments are constrained by the fact that some of the major drivers of change are outside their control, most obviously, perhaps, market liberalization. It is here relevant to recall the original Kuznets curve hypothesis, that economic growth will reduce inequality between people. This hypothesis too finds little empirical support in these case studies. In most cases, inequality has remained the same or has increased. To conclude this chapter it may be appropriate to reiterate the link between these two issues, which is that those who suffer most – both from poverty and environmental degradation – are very frequently those in rural areas who are dependent upon the state of the natural resources for their livelihoods. With small landholdings and insecure tenure rights, they have limited resilience, benefiting little from the growth of the economy, but often suffering the environmental burden that comes with it. The challenge of sustainable development is still, twenty years after the report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, a twin challenge: to reduce poverty, and at the same time to reduce environmental degradation. Land use policies can play an important part in contributing to these twin aims, but they are not easy to reconcile.

NOTES 1. These correspond very closely to the components of the well-established PAT formula: I = P × A × T, where: I = Environmental impact, P = Population, A = Affluence, T = Technology. 2. Whether caused by natural increase, migration, incursion of non-agricultural land uses, or institutional factors such as land tenure regime. 3. This does not imply that each dimension need be given the same weight, but that each should be included. 4. For example, the case study of Tunisia organized frequent interactions with local and international research communities to discuss advances of models, application of the DPSIR (Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) framework. The case study of China and India, also for example, organized multiple interactions with farmers.


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König, J.H., J. Schuler, U. Suarma, D. McNeill, J. Imbernon, F. Damayanti, S.A. Dalimunthe, S. Uthes, J. Sartohadi, K. Helming and J. Morris (2010), ‘Assessing the impacts of land use policy on uban–rural sustainability using the FoPIA approach in Yogyakarta, Indonesia’, Sustainability, 2, 1991–2009. Kristensen, P., P. Frederiksen, V. Briquel and M.L. Paracchini (2009), ‘SENSOR indicator framework: guidelines for selection and aggregation’, SENSOR report series 2009/3, SENSOR, EU 6th Framework Programme. Lambin, E.F., H.J. Geist and E. Lepers (2003), ‘Dynamics of land-use and land- cover change in tropical regions’, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 28, 205–41. Lamprey, R.H. and R.S. Reid (2004), ‘Expansion of human settlement in Kenya’s Maasai Mara: what future for pastoralism and wildlife?’, Journal of Biogeography, 31(6), 997–1032. Lebel, L., J.M. Anderies, B. Campbell, C. Folke, S. Hatfield-Dodds, T.P. Hughes and J. Wilson (2006), ‘Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems’, Ecology and Society, 11(1), 19. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (2005), Ecosystems and Human Well- being: Desertification Synthesis, Washington, DC: Island Press, accessed at www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document. Mohan, G. and J. Mohan (2002), ‘Placing social capital’, Progress in Human Geography, 26(2), 191–210. Nordhaus, W.D. (2006), ‘Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(10), 3510–17. Ogolla, B.D. and J. Mugabe (1996), ‘Land tenure systems’, in C. Juma, J.B. Ojwang and J.B. Otwang (eds), Nairobi: Initiative Publishers. Pérez-Soba, M., S. Petit, L. Jones, N. Bertrand, V. Briquel, L. Omodei-Zorini, C. Contini, K. Helming, J. Farrington, M. Tinacci Mossello, D. Wascher, F. Kienast and D. de Groot (2008), ‘Land use functions: a multifunctionality approach to assess the impact of land use change on land use sustainability’, in K. Helming, P. Tabbush and M. Pérez-Soba (eds), Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, Springer, Berlin: pp. 375–404. Raudsepp-Hearne, C., G.D. Peterson, M. Tengo, E.M. Bennett, T. Holland, K. Benessaiah, G.K. MacDonald and L. Pfeifer (2010), ‘Untangling the environmentalist’s paradox: why is human well-being increasing as ecosystem services degrade?’, Bioscience, 60(8), 576–89. Reidsma, P., H. König, S. Feng, I. Bezlepkina, I. Nesheim, M. Bonin, M. Sghaier, S. Purushothaman, S. Sieber, M.K. van Ittersum and F. Brouwer (2011), ‘Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries’, Land Use Policy, 28(3), 604–17. Tarrow, S. (1996), ‘Making social science work across space and time: a critical reflection on Robert Putnam’s “Making Democracy Work”’, American Political Science Review, 90(2), 389–97. Tilman, D. (1999), ‘Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: the need for sustainable and efficient practices’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 96(11), 5995–6000. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) (1994), date from UNCCD Secretariat website, accessed at www.unccd.int/convention/text/ convention.php?annexNo=-1. Van Paassen, A., R.P. Roetter, H. Van Keulen and C.T. Hoanh (2007), ‘Can


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computer models stimulate learning about sustainable land use? Experience with LUPAS in the humid (sub-) tropics of Asia’, Agricultural Systems, 94(3), 874–87. Wang, L., Y. Cai and L. Fang (2009), ‘Pollution in Taihu Lake, China: causal chain and policy options analyses’, Frontiers of Earth Science in China, 3(4), 437–44.


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13. Critical analysis of land use policies Muriel Bonin, Emilie Coudel, Youssouf Cissé, Shuyi Feng, Patrick Gicheru, Nina Novira, Nadia Ounalli, Seema Purushothaman, Saulo Rodrigues-Filho, Mongi Sghaier, Xiaoping Shi and Jean-Philippe Tonneau INTRODUCTION In this chapter our objective is to understand the premises which determine the configuration of a policy in relation to sustainable development. A common analytical framework is applied, which defines elements which can help characterize the diversity of land use policies according to: orientation (the focus of the policy), governance (related to implementation aspects), and the relation to land. By understanding the links between these elements, we can enhance our comprehension of the role of the policies in a wider context, and thus assess their probable impacts in a sustainable development perspective. We apply this analytical framework to the land use policies selected by the local research teams and their interactive stakeholder groups. This facilitates comparison of one country’s policy perspective towards sustainable development, relative to other countries. Further, we will discuss the different priorities chosen by each country, trying to understand them in relation to the contexts and public preferences. Applied in a critical perspective, such an analytical framework can be a powerful tool in deciding ex-ante which land use policies to implement, or in evaluating ex-post how a policy has affected its environment. According to Vinck (1983), land use ‘expresses the management of ecosystems by man in order to achieve some of his needs’. Land use policies thus include not only ‘land administration’ (Barnes, 2003; Steudler et al., 2004), ‘cadastral systems’ (Rajabifard et al., 2007) that correspond to the implementation of state control over land, and ‘land planning’which introduces the idea of a strategy in planning infrastructures (roads, dams, etc.) to 248


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orient the occupation and use that will be made of the land. Land use, and therefore also land use policies, are also concerned with ‘resources’ associated with the land, and with user practices to mobilize these resources, through extractive or production systems (Landais et al., 1988). A study of land use policies, in contrast to classical land planning, thus focuses more on local resources and practices; it involves a variety of stakeholders and covers a wide range of governance issues. Land use policies present particular challenges in developing countries for at least three reasons: because natural resources are particularly vulnerable under the very varying climatic conditions found in the South; because governance is often characterized by weak states, confronted by powerful international organizations and difficult decentralization processes; and because the use of land and natural resources is a subsistence issue for the majority of the population, so that traditional rights of ownership are especially important. Land use policies have the potential to influence who can use the natural resources, and also the manner and extent of this exploitation. Underlying power relations will be ‘crystallized’ in the land use policy that emerges, for they will influence the orientation of the policy (the focus), the governance of the policy (its implementation), and the way it considers land. In what follows, therefore, we reflect on the links between these three issues – orientation, governance and relation to land – which together will strongly influence the impact of land use policies on sustainable development. More specifically we will compare the land use policies presented in the different LUPIS case studies, identifying the different visions behind them, and the underlying premises concerning orientation, governance and relation to land. However, comparing land use policies in different countries is a great challenge, especially when they represent such a great diversity of situations and policies in developing and emerging countries, as those in this book: Tunisia, Kenya, India, China, Mali, Indonesia and Brazil. The first challenge encountered was that terms and/or concepts may have different meanings in different contexts, so that the relevance of a concept used in one context must be questioned in another context. For example, the notions of civil society and democracy are rooted in Western political thought. As Otayek (2002) points out, it is questionable whether these concepts can be applied to developing countries in the absence of conditions which ensure the regulation of tensions between individual interests and common good: political rules that are institutionalized and internalized by actors, dissociation between economic and political domains, and between the public and private spheres. Another challenge is related to the issue of subjectivity. All research is in part subjective (Latour, 1995), although this is rarely explicitly acknowledged. This is especially the case for issues related to the analysis of


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government policy. Such analysis depends on the perception that researchers have of the state, which is influenced by social norms. Different attitudes of researchers can be identified in their relation to the state. To simplify and perhaps even caricature the situation, some researchers believe in a strong and beneficent state; whether or not they have scientific evidence, the researchers assume that law has positive impacts, thus seeming to follow the orders of government. But a researcher who praises the merits of a law may be subject to suspicion within the research community, leading researchers to consider that their role is to reveal the limits, and even the negative impacts of the policies that are implemented, and to suggest improvements. In a third, and extreme case, the distrust of governments may be so strong – with accusations of embezzlement and corruption – that researchers are systematically critical of government policies. Although the existence of such differing attitudes can make comparison difficult, such an exercise carried out collectively can be a way for the different researchers to become aware of this subjectivity and to try to counterbalance their initial judgements. This was to some extent achieved during the LUPIS project.

WHAT ELEMENTS SHOULD GUIDE THE COMPARISON? The objective of this section is to determine the main elements that characterize land use policies, and thus to define what was important to take into account for our analytical framework. As noted above, ‘land use policies’introduce a broader conception of governance of land, not just through government control; they consider land not in terms of space but also in terms of its resources (Peel and Lloyd, 2007). The main objective of these policies is to adapt or modify actor practices. They are thus similar to agricultural or agri-environmental policies, which also aim at modifying actor practices (Plantinga, 1996), but they include a conception of space which is absent from agri-environmental policies. In other words they include a territorial aspect, as defined in the past years by social scientists: ‘space identified through a sense of appropriation’ (Le Berre, 1992), reflecting the evolution that takes into account intentions, practices and representations of actors. Therefore the specificity of land use policies is manifested in the combination of the following three elements: ●●

Resources and practices: land is considered in terms of the resources that are localized on it, and resources are considered locally (Callaghan, 1996). This draws attention to one of the central issues


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of sustainability (Haberl et al., 2004): that resources existing locally must be preserved for future use (McCracken and Bignal, 1998), breaking the productive paradigm which sometimes considered that when resources were depleted, one could move on to another localization (e.g. agricultural frontiers). Practices are central: they influence the way resources are mobilized. Governance: governance introduces a wide variety of actors, with different (and sometimes conflicting) interests. This raises questions of how to take into account the different stakeholders. This is revealed through methodological development, such as the increasing interest in participatory methods for land use policies (Antunes et al., 2006; Renn, 2006; Stirling, 2006), or conflict resolution methods to resolve stakeholder disagreements in order to select an optimal land use plan (Prato, 2007). Exploratory land use studies can accompany the formulation of strategic policy objectives (Van Ittersum et al., 1998). An appropriated space: space is not just physical, it becomes cultural, an identity emerges, often through the definition of territories, giving a uniqueness to the place regarded (Roca and Oliveira-Roca, 2007). Land rights and discrepancies between areas of action and problem areas condition the implementation of land use policies.

In developing countries, particular challenges cast new light on these specificities of land use policies. Regarding resources and practices, particularities are mostly geophysical: severe climate episodes in tropical zones have a strong influence on the land, through severe droughts which weaken the soil structure, or through torrential rains which leach the soils. This increases the need for well-chosen agricultural practices, as inadequate methods can lead to soil damage and desertification much faster than in temperate zones. Water resources are often scarce, demanding increased attention to water allocation and management. Salinity of water is also often a big problem, leading to irreversible soil damage when irrigation works are badly implemented. Developing countries are also characterized by a rich diversity of ecological conditions which favour great biodiversity (in tropical forests, for example). All these issues are often exacerbated by global climate change, as climate episodes become more violent. In fact, developing countries are confronted by an extreme vulnerability to environmental change, which challenges their capacity to adapt in the face of these changes. Another particularity concerning resources is due to the geopolitical position of developing countries. Since a great part of their agriculture is focused on export to developed countries, local resources (such as scarce


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water) being used for export products cannot be used by local populations. Moreover, soils can be rapidly depleted; instead of being fertilized appropriately, it can be cheaper for landowners to move on to new land that they will cultivate intensively for a few years to extract the most export value before moving again. Many soils become exhausted and uncultivable. Finally, in the case of small family farmers, practices and choices are not rationalized in the same way as they are in developed countries, as most of their production is for the family’s consumption. They do not choose simply to maximize revenue, but rather according to an objective of food security, taking into account risk. Concerning governance, developing countries often have to face difficulties in land administration. As suggested by Pugh (1996), although land use policy and land management vary widely from one country to another, what is common is that land administration is often inadequate, with incomplete registration systems, uncertainty of legal titles, and ineffective cadastral systems, leading to high transactions costs, and even corrupt practices. These difficulties explain why in many developing countries land use policies focus more on administrative and cadastral reform than on environmental and rural projects that could influence land use practices. This is noted in Barnes (2003), who adds that new legal frameworks have been ineffective because insufficient attention has been paid to discussion with the stakeholders and to the dissemination of their rights. He adds that inadequate attention is given to capacity building. International institutions, such as the World Bank, have a strong involvement in the definition of land use policies. Recommendations have evolved over the years, but specific ideas or principles for developing countries have been developed by the World Bank (Pugh, 1996). In the late 1970s and early 1980s the focus was on taxation, and on making state–market relationships more coherent. In the late 1980s, the World Bank developed a more proactive approach to land use policy, giving more importance to land administration. And when attitudes to governments became more positive, promoted by the New Political Economy, a widening social agenda included concerns for increasing numbers of poor, environmental issues, and mixed configurations of state, market, NGOs and households (Pugh, 1996). Thus on the one hand, there is a process of liberalization, and on the other hand, international institutions or conventions must also be taken into account, such as the Rio agenda (Wood and Lenne, 2005), the biodiversity convention, the WTO agenda, and so on. Understanding the influence of international agendas is fundamental to the analysis of the evolution of land use policies and the introduction of land use issues. Another particularity is the emergence of local governance which involves civil society, local and regional governments, state institutions,


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NGOs, trade unions, firms, chambers of commerce, and so on. A process of decentralization is adopted in numerous developing countries, allocating to the local powers prerogatives to control land use in their own way (D’Aquino et al., 2002). This process involves a change in the way land use policies are implemented. According to Barnes (2003), this requires that there be a shift from a control mentality to one that is more democratic and participatory. However, administrations do not always manage to give life to this institutional decentralization, revealing a serious need for capacity building (Barnes, 2003). As for appropriation of space, particularities depend on land rights and strong cultural features. A large proportion of land development is ‘informal’, not corresponding to legal rules but to de facto social recognition. Different types of property rights are often overlapping and inconsistent, deriving from customary indigenous culture, colonial inheritance and post-colonial reform. The transition from collective land ownership to land rental and land market for rural land is found in several countries, for example Mali or China (Shi and Qu, 2005). It is important to distinguish land ownership from the use of resources, although they can be linked. For example in Mali, the control of land by the Office du Niger is a way to guarantee the collection of water fees. Because of strong demographic growth and increasing monetary needs, land becomes a coveted resource, leading to several phenomena, such as land redistribution (Tan et al., 2006), land reform conflicts, and overexploitation. Pressure on land is sometimes increased by population migration towards more fertile lands. Notably, in African countries, there are strong tensions between nomadic and sedentary cultures, leading to a double appropriation of land, by cattle herders and by farmers, with conflicts emerging as the populations increase and need more space. Moreover, land is often much more than a geographical space, taking on sacred connotations, with different ways of defining territories and the use that can be made of each one. Defining these specificities in developing countries makes it possible to identify better the elements which need to be taken into account to understand the diversity of land use policies, and hence brings some insights concerning their impact on sustainable development.

AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND THE DIVERSITY OF LAND USE POLICIES A public policy has the ambitions to achieve certain goals, to implement values, to satisfy interests, and so on, although these are not always


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expressed in clear and explicit terms. Land use policies mainly deal with programmes and operations of public authorities to influence land use in a way which is considered desirable; in the case of LUPIS, this is in a way which contributes to sustainable development. As discussed above, an instructive way to characterize a land use policy is to analyse how it aims to influence resource use and practices (its orientation), how it will involve various stakeholders (governance), and how it features the relation to land (appropriation). These elements form the basis of our analytical framework. Elements Characterizing the Orientation of a Land Use Policy Land use policies generally focus on controlling the impact of practices on resources (water, land, fauna, flora), but they may be based on very different perspectives. Different conceptions of sustainable development will lead to different orientations in the land use policies. The concept of sustainable development, beyond a consensual definition, can be based on very diverse philosophies and societal projects, ranging from limiting growth to integrated management based on recycling through to investment in ‘green economy’ knowledge and energy (which can be nuclear). In the field of agriculture, Godard and Hubert (2002) distinguish precision agriculture, reasoned agriculture, multifunctional agriculture and agro-ecology as many answers to sustainable development. Policies can be characterized according to the priority given to each objective (economic, social, environmental). Four main orientations can generally be distinguished: ●●

●●

Policies aiming at resource management and conservation: obviously, the first way to influence the use of resources is through policies dealing directly with resources, such as land, water, biodiversity (fauna, flora). These can be conservation policies (for example, establishing a nature reserve), or segmented policies, which aim at correcting specific problems (for example pollution). However, these resources are impacted because of other activities, and it is therefore fundamental to understand the effects of other types of policies. Policies focused on production systems: these are often sectoral policies, defining specific measures focused on one sector: agriculture, forestry, tourism, transport, energy infrastructure and extractive industries. These activities have strong impacts on resources through the use they make of the resources or through externalities of production (negative, such as pollution, or


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●●

●●

positive, such as maintaining agricultural landscapes). Therefore these policies can encourage different usages of land and try to control their impacts. Policies dealing with social aspects: these are often differential policies, aimed at specific populations (poor, rural, etc.) and are aimed at correcting existing inequalities (in level of development, access to services, access to employment, etc.), through positive discrimination, for example. They can influence the way land is used (for example, if a population is too poor, it will tend to migrate to the city, abandoning land), but the effects are generally indirect. Policies which focus on a region, in a development perspective: based on actor proximity and decentralization, they enhance territory as an integrating area, mainly through planning and governance measures (for example: integrated river basin management). These policies often affect production capacity by acting on productive and social infrastructure, thus influencing the whole range of productive, economic and social aspects of a territory.

The orientation of a policy reflects its intention, the goals that it aims at. However, it is important to realize that a policy will also have side-effects: an assessment, ex ante or ex post, must therefore consider all intentional and non-intentional impacts, in every dimension of sustainable development (economic, social, environmental) to truly understand how a policy influences the use of land and resources. Elements Characterizing the Governance and Instruments of the Policy In practice a policy will become what the different stakeholders make it into; the outcome will be dependent on how the policy is negotiated, how it is interpreted, how it is implemented by each actor. This is particularly true in the case of land use policies. Therefore it is fundamental to analyse the governance of the policy: what is the role of government, what importance is given to the participation of the actors, what instruments are used to implement the policy. Governance specifies what actors, objects, rules and instruments seem relevant at a given moment to orient and implement the policy. Land use policies are increasingly implemented within contexts of shared decision taking. They depend on a multi-layered governance process, involving many actors at different levels: international institutions, governments at various levels (national, state, local), business and civil society (multinational firms, NGOs, local associations, etc.). Nonetheless, the role of governments is a central element of the analysis, as they define the modalities


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of the governance of the policy. Three main roles of governments can be identified: ●●

●●

●●

Taking a proactive leadership role: this mainly refers to strategic planning. Government induces the actors to build, in a more or less participative way, a ‘strategic plan’ and incites them to implement it. Infrastructure policies are a typical example. Supporting the actors (companies, communities, civil society) through assistance and service measures: the aim is to help the actors express their needs and expectations, and to guarantee the participation of the greatest number. Financing initiatives: the government does not intervene directly in elaboration processes. It limits itself to providing financial support to society’s activities.

Participation of users must be analysed together with the role of government. Three levels of public participation can be distinguished: ●●

●●

●●

Methods of public communication enable the government to inform citizens. These methods do not ensure a true public participation, but their role is essential for processes of public consultation or participation. Public communication covers such things as published advertisements, reports, newspaper articles, official statements, press conferences and websites. Modes of public consultation enable governments to invite the views of the population on public policy issues, but interaction generally remains limited. Information circulates in only one direction, that is from the population to government. Classical means of public consultation include public assemblies, opinion polls, public audiences, discussion groups, referendums and meetings with government staff. Modes of public participation enable interaction between citizens, and between citizens and the government, that is there is an exchange of information between them. Deliberation is important in this process (which usually takes place in groups). Representatives are designated by each of the two parts in various proportions, according to the methods employed. Deliberative intervention helps to transform opinions, of both sides, into enlightened and advised judgements.

In spite of great advances, particularly in the field of deliberative methods, which create an active participation of citizens and enable a true dialogue between them and the government, true participation often remains difficult.


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Various instruments can be used by the governments to implement the policy: ●●

●●

●●

Regulations, as instruments of injunction and control of the execution, generally defining standards (quantified objectives that must be achieved, or on the contrary, that must not be exceeded), to which the regulated person must conform (injunction), under threat of penalty and of sanction (control). Incentives or taxation: the objective is to render certain practices or actions either less expensive (incentives) or more expensive (taxation) in terms of money, time or effort. Incentives leave people entirely free to choose, under condition of realizing their rights. Agri-environmental measures to encourage agricultural practices that respect the environment are an example of such incentives. Information, as an intervention tool, aims at convincing actors so that they carry out actions voluntarily. It informs the public about other intervention tools, by revealing their existence, their purpose and their availability. Information can also be managed, and can constitute a cumulative database, about experiences, instruments, their design, their choice and their relevance.

These instruments will often influence the market, which plays a major role in the implementation of the policies. The government can liberalize a sector, or it can regulate the market, by fixing prices (such as of water). Taxes and incentives can influence prices, more or less voluntarily. Elements Characterizing the Relation to Land As land use policies have an important geographical component, it is important to understand their relation to the land that they express. As we have shown, space can be considered as a physical entity that can be occupied (cadastral systems); as a locality connected to other localities through more or less proximity; or, finally, it can become an appropriated space, with a certain identity. It is important to understand how land use policies take this relation to land into account and influence this appropriated space. This understanding can possibly have repercussions for the levels at which a policy is decided and implemented, and for what degree of decentralization is given. For example, in the case of strong cultural appropriation, it seems important that decisions be taken locally. Appropriation of space also influences the extent to which the stakeholders feel involved in a local issue. If they feel strongly linked to their land, they may feel more keen about preserving the resources. This reveals


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the importance of matching the scale of the governance of the policy to the scale of the issue (such as pollution at the level of a water basin, biodiversity at the level of a corridor). Links between Orientation, Governance and Relation to Land In summary, we suggest the following elements be used to characterize the diversity of land use policies: ●●

●●

●●

elements concerning the orientation of the policy: which resources, what practices, and whether the focus is sectoral, resource-based, social or territorial; elements concerning governance: how the policy is decided, implemented and evaluated, the role of the government, of the market, of the different stakeholders, the policy instruments used; elements concerning the level of appropriation: at what level the policy is decided, implemented, what is the conception of land (space, proximity, identity).

Our assumption is that one type of orientation will probably be linked to one type of governance and to a specific relation to land. Sectoral policies tend to be applied at a national level, sometimes regional level, through state control or market control. Resource-oriented policies seem to be applied mostly at a regional or local level, through market incentives or actor involvement. Social policies seem to be mainly proposed at a national level, through regulations. Territorial policies tend to be applied at a regional level by local actors. These elements will form our analytical framework for the comparison of land use policies in the different case studies.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LAND USE POLICIES Distribution of Policies in the Case Studies The case studies are presented in Chapters 5 to 11. Each local partner identified policies which they regarded as relevant to the issue selected in each case study, and then classified these policies according to one of the four pre-defined types (Table 13.1). The description of these land use policies (74 in total) is presented in a data portal (http://lupis.cirad.fr/). Resource policies are the main type of policy identified in the case studies. This type accounts for 46 per cent of land use policies (Figure 13.1).


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National agricultural price policy (India) Agricultural subsidy policy (India) Policies for commercial diversification: Agricultural trade policy (India) Policies for commercial diversification: Agricultural credit policy (India) Technology mission for oilseeds, pulses and maize (India) Pesticide policies (China)

Sectoral policies

Regulations on livestock and poultry pollution (China) 11th five-year plan for the construction of modern agriculture in Jiangsu Province (China) Non-pollution food, green food and organic food policies (China) Regulation on the management of non-pollution agricultural products in Jiangsu Province (China) Agricultural policies in Jiangsu Province (China) Infrastructure: road building and pavement (Brazil) Infrastructure: Hydroelectric power plants (Brazil)

Name of policies

Orientation

Table 13.1 List of policies in case studies classified by type

Provincial National

Provincial government/ Tax relief, subsidies National and international/ Investment in road building Public–private partnerships/Investment

National/ local

Provincial

National

Provincial

National

National/ regional National

National

National National National

Level

Provincial government/ Production standards, certification

Provincial government/Investment, demonstration sites State/Production standards, certification

State/Control of production, marketing and utilization of pesticides State/Standards

State/Incentives, restriction to importations

State/Regulated markets State/Subsidy International treaty/Removal of trade restrictions State/Credit incentives

Governance/Instrument


259

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Resource- oriented policies

Orientation

11th five-year strategic plan for water pollution prevention in main watersheds (China) Water Pollution Prevention and Control law (China)

Water Law (China) Soil and Water Conservation Law (China)

Watershed National

State/Command and control of water use State/Command and control of soil and water conservation State/Strategic plan, investment State/Prevent and control of pollution

State/ Acquisition of land for infrastructure projects State, actors/ Regulation, information

Land acquisition (India)

Watershed development policy (India)

National/ Transfer of land ownership

Land reforms (India)

National, local National, local National, local National National

International/ national National National National National National

International/ Investment in power lines

South American Infrastructure Integration Initiative – IIRSA (Brazil) Agriculture culturing system (Indonesia) Forestry (Indonesia) Policy of sustainable agricultural land (Indonesia) Strategy for revitalizing agriculture (Kenya) Macro-economic policies (Mali) State/Incentives State/Command and control State/ Allocation of land to rice production State/incentives State/ investment, taxes, subsidies, credit, interest rate, devaluation

Level


Name of policies



260

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Environmental management (Indonesia)

State/ Command and control

Lake protection regulation of Jiangsu Province Provincial government/Command and control (China) lake resources, fine Water resource management regulation of Jiangsu Provincial government/Command and control Province (China) of water resources Regulation on water pollution prevention and Provincial government/Command and control control in Taihu Lake in Jiangsu province (China) of water pollution Tenth five-year plan of water pollution prevention State/Plan, investment and control in Taihu Lake (China) Regulation of water-drawing permits and the State/Regulation, incentive collection of water resource fee (China) Zero-clock action (China) State/ Command and control, forced closure Prevention and control of environmental pollution State/ Command and control of pollution by by solid waste (China) solid waste Land property rights (China) State/ Definition of land right subjects Protected land: conservation (Brazil) State/ Implementation and management of conservation units PP-G7/ Pilot program to conserve the Brazilian Actors/ Extractive reserves, demarcation of rainforest (Brazil) indigenous land Action plan for Amazonian deforestation State and market/ Land planning prevention (Brazil) Basic regulation of agrarian principles (Indonesia) State and market/ Land planning and incentives Land arrangement for public facilities (Indonesia) State/ Investment Regional, local National, local National, local National

National National/ local Regional

Watershed National

National

Watershed

Provincial

Provincial

Provincial


261

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Orientation


Privatization policy (Tunisia) Environmental policy (Tunisia)

Water and soil conservation strategies (Tunisia) Saving water and irrigation encouragement policy (Tunisia) International convention on climate change (Tunisia) United Nations convention on combating desertification (Tunisia) UN convention on biodiversity (Tunisia)

Land expansion and privatization policy (Mali)

Legal texts regarding forest, fauna, water resources (Mali) Water code policy (Mali)

International national/ Instrument not specified International national/ Inventory of biodiversity National/ Allocation of title National/ Subsidies, credit

International, national/ National inventory

State/ Command and control on water resource State, private sector/ Allocation of title and investment State, Investment State/ Investment, subsidies

State/ Definition of right to land and land- based resources access State/ Command and control State/ Definition of right to land and land- based resources access State/ Command and control of resource use

Land tenure policy (Kenya)

Water policy (Kenya) Land use code (Mali)


Name of policies


International, national International, national International, national National National

National, regional National National

National

National

National/ district National National

Level


262

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The Panchayat Raj Act (India)

Territorial policies

Regional spatial planning Province of Yogyakarta (Indonesia)

Sustainable BR-163 plan and sustainable Amazonia plan (Brazil) National spatial planning (Indonesia)

The development plan of circular economy in Jiangsu Province (China) Ecological province construction plan of Jiangsu Province (China) Protected land: Indigenous land (Brazil) Colonization and land reform (Brazil)

Town and Country Planning Act (China) Land Administrative Law (China)

Regional development acts and authorities (India)

National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (India) Public distribution system (India) The strategic framework to fight poverty (Mali)

Social policies

Provincial government/ Land use plan

Actors/Land regularization and demarcation State/ Distribution of public land to landless peasants State and actors/ Protected areas, suspension of economic activities State/ Land use plan

State/ Spatial planning State/ Property rights, command and control of land use Provincial government / Plan, investment, experimental units Provincial government/ Plan, investment

State/ Decentralized governance, planning and implementation State/ Investment

State/ Guarantees for work (unskilled manual labour) State/ Food distribution State/ Incentives

National, provincial Regional

Regional

Local Regional

Provincial

Provincial

National, regional National, regional National National

National, local National National


263

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Orientation

State/ Incentives and information State, actors/ Rules governing territorial communities domain State/ Spatial planning, investment

Wildlife and tourism policy (Kenya)

Arid and semi-arid lands policy (Kenya)

Laws on decentralization (Mali)

Rural development policy (Tunisia)

Setting up the agency of the Niger River (Mali)

State, agency/ Spatial planning, investment, incentives State/ Investment

National/ Limitation of land rights in hazard area State/ Protected areas and incentives

Disaster anticipation (Indonesia)

Rural development sector master plan (Mali)


Name of policies


National, local National/ local National/ regional National/ local National, regional National, regional National, regional

Level


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Sectoral Resource Social Territorial

Figure 13.1 Distribution of land use policies according to types 14 Sectoral

Number of policies

12

Resource

10

Social

8

Territorial

6 4 2 0 Tunisia

Kenya

India

China

Mali

Indonesia

Brazil

Figure 13.2 Number of policies in case studies classified by type The predominance of this type of policy is largely attributable to two case studies (China, with water pollution, and Tunisia) where the central issue relates to resources, and a relatively large number of policies (19) were identified (Figure 13.2). As Figure 13.3 shows, the distribution between the different types was more balanced in most of the other case studies. In most case studies, policies are well distributed among the different categories. What are similarities and differences between these policies in the different case studies? We will identify points of comparison from the three elements retained in our analytical framework: orientation, governance and instruments, and relation to land.


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100

Percent

80 60 40 20 0

Tunisia

Kenya Sectoral

India

China

Resource

Mali Social

Indonesia

Brazil

Territorial

Figure 13.3 Percentage of policies in each type for each case study The Orientation of Land Use Policies Sectoral policies to encourage agricultural intensification All the sectoral policies described in the case studies seem to be related to agricultural modernization, although using different modalities. The degree of agricultural intensification varies considerably between countries. Policies have encouraged cultivation of input-intensive commercial crops during the green revolution in India, for example, or have contributed to the establishment of an area of irrigated crops in Office du Niger (Mali). As a result of promoting agricultural intensification, India doubled its food production during the 1970s and has reached net surplus in food production. This process is called the ‘green revolution’, wherein increased production in food grains was achieved by increasing acreage of land under High Yielding Variety (HYV) seeds of paddy and wheat, with resource-intensive, irrigated agriculture combined with additional nutrients. More and more land was ploughed, and most waste land was converted to agricultural land. Because of the resource-intensive nature of the green revolution, policies related to irrigation and watershed development have had a considerable impact on decisions concerning the type and number of crops grown in a year. To foster growth in agriculture, various government agencies were involved in the marketing of agricultural inputs and outputs. Agricultural price policies, as well as minimum support prices, were devised to provide incentives to farmers to adopt new technologies and use crop patterns that are socially desirable (Government of India, 1965). These reforms were presented as necessary to sustain the


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growth in food production, and sectoral policies form the majority of policies affecting agriculture in the India case study. In Taihu Lake Basin in China, the population density is high and the level of urbanization ranks as the first in China, but this area has limited arable land. In order to meet the food demand of such a huge, growing population, agriculture has become extremely intensive through the use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides to increase crop productivity. The demand for livestock and poultry products is high. A great number of livestock markets have emerged within the suburbs. Intensive livestock production has had a tremendous impact on the environment. In addition to the pollution from livestock, aquaculture also generates much pollution. The development of fenced fish farms has resulted in the eutrophication of the lake and the decline in its purification capacity. A large amount of feed is used in fish farms, but only 30 per cent of it is consumed and the rest ferments in the sediment. Of the 30 per cent of feed that is used, only 9 per cent of nitrogen and phosphorus are used; the rest is excreted into the water, emitted to the air and accumulated in soils. These policies have all emerged to encourage food production, but have often been implemented without adequate thought about the negative consequences for natural resources of agriculture modernization brought about by these policies. Resource policies to cope with environmental effects of agricultural intensification Although environmental degradation is referred to in all the case studies, the implementation of policies to address these environmental issues is uneven. In China policies clearly tackle the negative externalities related to agricultural production with resource-oriented policies that focus on water pollution prevention and control, as well as with sectoral policies related to agriculture (pesticide policies; livestock and poultry policies; non-polluted food, green food and organic food policies; regulation of the management of non-pollution agricultural products, etc.). However, contradictions in policy objectives may jeopardize effective implementation. On the one hand, the non-pollution, green and organic food policy forbids using chemical fertilizers and pesticides, as does the pesticide policy; but on the other hand, the agricultural policy may indirectly encourage the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Thus policies conflict with each other. The plan of circular economy, the plan for the construction of modern agriculture and the plan of ecological province can be considered as a way of solving this conflict since these three policies seek to provide scientific regulation about how to develop agriculture, economics and the environment.


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In India, Karnataka’s agricultural sector is considerably affected by deteriorating environmental conditions, specifically related to the intensive use of agricultural inputs. This situation is exacerbated by the complex set of policies affecting agricultural resource use and the lack of a territorial policy to reduce resource degradation. In most instances the government has attached little importance to interventions for reducing resource degradation. Even in cases where resource degradation is recognized as a major threat to agricultural development, no effective policy exists to tackle the alarming resource degradation. The ability of environmental policies to resist the ‘laws’ of the market may be questioned. For example, in China, industries that produce pesticides play a central role in determining whether or not the policies to regulate the application of pesticides are effectively implemented. Similarly, policies to counter deforestation in the Amazon have to confront the force of the international timber trade. Whether market-based instruments, or command and control measures are used, a strong state will therefore be necessary. In Amazonia agricultural policy and environmental policy seem to be applied in different spaces without integrating the two. Policies to manage the negative environmental externalities of the modernization of the farmers are not mentioned. The policies implemented in the Amazon are considered by some authors as being designed to support policies elsewhere: the distribution of public land to poor peasants was considered as an escape valve for social unrest that had been building up elsewhere in the country due to land concentration. In the early 1970s the military government initiated the Plan for National Integration, PIN (Plano de Integração Nacional) followed by other land policy incentives, seeking to occupy the empty spaces of the area deemed to be the ‘Legal Amazon’ (Amazônia legal) and to reduce the social tensions generated by the modernization of agriculture in other areas of Brazil. Deforestation is the main issue and the main focus of policies in Amazonia. This problem is also mentioned in India, where cases of land encroachment in forest peripheries are frequent (Government of India, 1988; Aziz and Sudhir, 1997). Instead of tackling the problem of encroachment head-on, successive governments frequently ‘regularize’ illegal encroached land and construction, encouraging further encroachments. The same occurs in Indonesia with regard to illegal change of land use from agriculture to urban housing. At the Office du Niger in Mali, deforestation is linked to the timber needs of rural and urban populations. Wood remains the main source of energy used. Surprisingly, in China, in spite of high economic growth, tree cover increased quickly due to a direct intervention of the government for the


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replanting of forests for environmental purpose (fight against pollution, erosion, etc.). Biodiversity is a matter of concern in all case studies. In Brazil reduced biodiversity is linked to deforestation and fires. In India loss of agricultural biodiversity is linked to the green revolution. In the case study in China agricultural production and rural sewage water are the main reasons for Taihu Lake Basin’s eutrophication. Reduction of natural vegetation and desertification reduce biotic resources and biodiversity in Mali, Kenya and Tunisia. Social policies to cope with equity concerns Although they are rarely mentioned in the case studies, some land use policies are designed to address social inequalities. Social policies mainly focus their activities on the poorest: the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and Public Distribution System in India; the strategic framework to fight poverty in Mali. In India, land reforms were started during the 1960s and had varying success in the different states. These reforms conferred ownership rights of agricultural lands on tenants, put a ceiling on the size of agricultural land that can be owned (land ceiling) and redistributed the surplus lands from large holders to the landless in the country. These reforms can be regarded as precursors to the green revolution. The government took a proactive role in designing, implementing and monitoring the policy of land reforms. Land reform was an important step in promoting equitable distribution of agricultural land among the people. It also gave social and political voice to the landless tenants. Where they were implemented effectively, land reforms increased the number of landholders and decreased the size of the average land holding per farmer. Many studies claim that land entitlement, increased tenure security and decreased size of average land holding may have helped in the reduction of fallows and increased the productivity of the land. But the hypothesis that redistributive land reforms can increase agricultural productivity has been increasingly questioned in the liberalization regime, and instead the case is often being made for economies of scale, consolidation and relaxation of the ceiling on land ownership (Srivastava, 2006; Deshpande, 2007). Territorial policies to address inequality between regions It seems that one of the main objectives of territorial policies is also to address inequalities, but not so much within a specific region as between different regions. Thus a territorial policy in India puts increased focus on areas lagging behind socio-economically through the ‘Regional Development Acts and Authorities’.


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Some regions concentrate their financial resources in geographical terms. In India, inter-region and intra-region disparities in agricultural productivity and growth are high. Investment in infrastructure is higher in well irrigated and fertile areas (Fan and Hazell, 2000). Rain-fed agriculture (which comprises two-thirds of the total agricultural land in India) lags behind both in capital formation and agricultural production (Kerr, 1996; Mathur et al., 2006). In Tunisia the region of Jeffara is of great socio-economic and geopolitical interest, benefiting from a significant volume of investment through several national development programmes, such as the Integrated and Rural Development Programme (PDRI), the Regional Development Programme (PRD), the National Solidarity Programme, and the Natural Resources Management Programme. Agriculture intensification and modernization have a strong impact on the increase of economic growth and social welfare, but also produce inequalities and environmental degradation. In Brazil, highway BR-163 is the only communication route for the local population, and at the same time is also vital for the transport of agro-export products. Companies focusing their operations on the purchase of grains and sale of fertilizers to rural producers are accused of deepening the dependence of these producers on the large companies of the agricultural sector. On the other hand, companies that market agro-chemicals, agricultural machines and agribusinesses, invigorate the local economy. Governance and the Role of the State The role of the state remains essential in dealing with environmental degradation and social inequality. However, some case studies have shown strong criticism of the state, and new governance modes (either formal or informal) are appearing. Criticisms of state governance Types of state governance vary widely between the different case study countries, and also over time (several countries, for example Brazil and Mali, have experienced a transition from a military to a civil government in the recent past). For nearly 20 years, from the 1980s, international institutions (notably the World Bank and IMF) advocated the withdrawal of the state (the ‘Washington Consensus’); however, in recent years this policy has been questioned (Stiglitz, 2002). Criticism by donors concerned about the misuse of aid, for patronage or fraud, imperceptibly led to criticism of the state as an institution, condemned as useless, corrupt, bureaucratic, and overspending (Otayek,


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2002). LUPIS case studies provide numerous examples of state bodies’ difficulties in implementing and enforcing legislation. The state is accused of being either too present or not present enough. In Amazonia the inefficient presence of the state is denounced. Corruption occurs on several institutional levels, including inspection institutions and positions of state bureaucracy. In Kenya, under the constitution and the Trust Land Act, County Councils were supposed to hold trust land on trust for residents, but the council and the government have favoured affluent people. In India the analysis of land reforms shows that, in general, giving ownership of agricultural land to its tenants and landless has been successful. However, the land ceiling and redistribution of surplus land was marred with inefficiency. Also, in many areas, the powerful landowners sabotaged the whole process. Concealed tenancy (cases of unreported tenant farming) still exists. This can be directly attributed to corruption and lack of willingness in the lower ranks of government. Land use policies in the Amazon are usually designed and applied in a rather uncoordinated way by several agencies and line ministries, whose plans overlap considerably. In India lack of enforcement, poor record keeping, corruption, and unclear distribution of responsibilities are also indicated. In China the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Law of the People’s Republic of China (WPPCL) has not been effective. The implementation of the WPPCL was extremely difficult; there are serious conflicts of various interests, and, as a result, the quality of the water environment has not been improved. The Chinese authorities have amended the WPPCL in 2008, with most of the effort focusing on how to further improve watershed control, strengthen centralized management and enhance the measures in executing the law. However, the law is formulated to deal with the consequences of the pollution, not the actors who cause the pollution. Therefore the WPPCL can not coordinate and balance different interests. This inefficient presence of the state results in ‘policy on paper’ without any real implementation. In Amazonia many of the proposed actions have never been implemented. In Indonesia, too, the case study reveals inadequate policy implementation. The essential role of the state Despite all the criticism of the state, its primary role remains very evident in the case studies. In India for example, Special Economic Zones (SEZ) are allocated areas created to provide autonomous, incentive-providing environments for private enterprises to establish their industrial units in a specific region of the country. The question of rehabilitation and compensation is also very important with SEZs. Until recently there were


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widespread protests against the government trying to acquire land to establish SEZs. But, recently, the Karnataka government has announced that the government will not acquire land for SEZs and will leave it to the private companies to buy land from the people on the open market. It has also announced new compensation and rehabilitation packages to those who will lose their land. While the Land Acquisition Act of the government itself was flawed with controversies, the fact of allowing comparatively stronger private enterprises to deal directly with farmers and landholders also raises the question of social justice. In such situations, the role of the government becomes vital in ensuring equitable benefits for all stakeholders. This major role of the government is also asserted in China where land property rights differentiate ownership subject and tenure subject. The land belongs to the communities or state. The state has to consider all factors such as the environment, human welfare and the economy, to plan how to use the land. This is considered as a way to halt the misuse of land resources. While the state is sometimes accused of inefficiency, the very concrete actions implemented by the state are also highlighted. For example in China, to counteract the siltation of lakes, different local governments plan to introduce some water cleaning plants, and breed macrobenthos and fish. This is considered as useful for the lake environment. Within the water resource management regulations of Jiangsu Province, 4745 deep wells were closed to protect the groundwater in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou between 2001 and 2005. The main objective of the ‘Zero-clock action’ was to effectively reduce water pollution and control the eutrophication process in Taihu Lake. To achieve this objective, in the period up to January 1999, the local government forced 24 industries to close, and 29 industries to adjust and stop production. This action reduced the water pollution and eutrophication. Alternatives to state governance A number of alternatives to central state authority are emerging: local and municipal governments, through decentralization; private initiatives, such as those promoted in structural adjustment programmes; associations or other grassroots organizations; to which can also be added the informal sector, as suggested by Shearing and Wood (2003). The disengagement of the state, promoted in structural adjustment programmes, was reflected for example in Mali through a privatization of the rice sector, from production to marketing. The promotion of private initiatives is still evident, as shown by the participatory management programmes.


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Where the state is inefficient, illegal practices may well occur, such as illegal logging in Amazonia or in Indonesia. The informal sector defines the rules. In Amazonia institutional barriers such as the inefficient presence of the state and failing communication between the land registry system (INCRA, Instituto Nacional de Colonização e Reforma Agrária – National Institute of Colonization and Land Reform) and the legal registry system (Registry offices) is facilitating the actions of the land grabbers, favouring the illegal occupation of public lands, the creation of clandestine highways and deforestation. The formalization of ‘bottom-up’ community involvement in projects has been driven by past failings of ‘top-down’ approaches. The push for community participation in sustainable development initiatives can be seen in Tunisia and in Mali. The situation remains fundamentally different in China where means of implementation, particularly for sectoral policies, are qualified as ‘forced to obey’. An example of increasing capacities of local governance and municipal governments can be found in Amazonia. State and municipal governments are here working together to strengthen local institutional capacity for environmental planning and regulation, while also learning how to integrate local stakeholders into the planning process. In recent times the government has attempted to pave the unfinished parts of the road; committees were created to discuss the matter, with diverse civil, private and social actors, all striving to find a solution among the land use conflicts.

DISCUSSION: UNDERLYING VISION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Policies are greatly influenced by different visions of sustainable development, visions which lead to different hypotheses concerning the likely impact of different types of policy. We will identify the various dilemmas and mechanisms identified in the case studies regarding policies and their underlying visions of sustainable development. The Impact of Land Use Policies: an Object of Controversy Each type of policy has been developed within a specific vision of sustainable development, with specific assumptions (even if these are implicit). Sectoral policies mostly take into account the economic component, even if the justification of these policies sometimes includes the three components of sustainable development (based on the argument that


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economic development also leads to social improvement and environmental conservation). Resource-oriented and social policies both emerge from the observation that the sectoral policies do not always have such positive by-products and that it may be necessary to compensate their negative externalities. Policies are therefore devised to have a direct effect on the environment or on social welfare. These policies are sometimes criticized for focusing on only one aspect: for example environmental policies for protected areas that do not take care of the indigenous population; or land reform policies that increase pressure on land and therefore can be harmful to the environment. Conversely, some authors argue that environmental and social policies will stimulate economic activities. These three types of policies have in common a tendency to focus on only one dimension of sustainable development. Territorial policies, by contrast, relate to all three dimensions of sustainable development in the case studies examined. Here the challenge is to find the appropriate balance between the three objectives. If devising and implementing these policies is devolved to actors at the regional or local level this may allow the policies to remain more flexible and adaptable to each context in order to achieve an optimal balance to promote the three components of sustainable development. In all the case studies a lack of knowledge about the actual impacts of policies is apparent. For example, in China, systematic control, scientific research and corresponding supervision are very limited in dealing with the hazard of pesticide use. With the implementation of these regulations, as well as the development of organic agriculture, the amount of highly toxic pesticides used has, it is true, decreased greatly; however, there is very little research on the effect of policies on water and land resources. Another example may be taken from Amazonia, where in 2005 and 2006 deforestation rates significantly decreased. The federal government claimed credit for this decrease, but a study conducted by Greenpeace showed that the government’s plan had been rendered ineffective by successive budget cuts, as well as lack of coordination, and that deforestation had fallen due to macroeconomic policies (over-valuation of the Brazilian currency, the Real, vis-à-vis the American dollar) and falling prices of both soybeans and beef. In India the economic reforms that started in the 1990s included liberalized international trade and foreign direct investment policies together with a gradual removal of public sector monopolies. These policies affected agricultural land use significantly, although there is still a debate as to the impact of international trade agreements and globally agreed commitments such as the Convention of Biological Diversity and the Kyoto protocol. Many studies claim that the WTO has not had the


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impact on Indian agriculture that as hypothesized, although their role is being carefully observed (Balakrishnan, 2000; Chand, 2004; Sathe and Deshpande, 2006). However, the process of market liberalization in India has had measurable changes in the Indian economy in general. Rapid urbanization, increasing use of land for non-agricultural purposes, commercialization of agriculture, and volatility in demand for commercial crops are some of the land use changes connected with it. The visions concerning the impact of these different types of policy relate to various myths behind each type of policy that we will try to clarify. The term ‘myth’ does not necessarily imply that the vision is false, but rather that there are powerful but largely unrecognized and unchallenged norms and assumptions underlying it. Sectoral policies: the myth of the market. Integrating social and environmental functions in market rules Sectoral policies aim at managing production by establishing rules on the market. The centrality given to the market is associated in developing countries with structural adjustment programmes of multilateral financial agencies such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank advocating a withdrawal of the state. Although the emphasis is on liberalization of trade, government intervention remains directly on production, as is the case in India, for example (national agricultural price policy, agriculture subsidy policy, technology mission for oilseeds, pulses and maize, etc.). This state control over the market relies on governance rather than assuming a model of policy being applied to profit-maximizing firms and consumers with fixed preferences: ‘governments set the scenes within which exchanges take place, by establishing formal rules for transactions, by constraining and incentivising behaviour, and by creating less formal forums within which information is exchanged and policies are implemented’ (Hodge, 2007, p. 410). Resource-oriented policies: the myth of state control over the management of natural resources or the commons The management of common resources by the state, in a top down approach, can have an authoritarian and sometimes radical character (removal of thousands of wells, prohibitions on industries regarding discharges and the use of water to reduce water pollution in highly urbanized and industrial China for example). However, it must cope with problems of governance of diverse interests and power relationships between actors. It is usual to assume that the focus of government intervention on common resources applies to natural resources. This is indeed the case in


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China with regard to the pollution of water, and in Brazil with the fight against deforestation. We also find, however, this type of intervention in the social field (food distribution by the Indian state to ensure food security for the population). Conservation policies are sometimes accused of considering human communities as ‘destructive agents’ to be removed from natural environments. They may also be criticized as being mere ‘window dressing’ for sectoral policies. In Amazonia some policies which are presented as conservation policies in the text can in fact be interpreted by some as a way to encourage settlement in practice, and therefore rather go against ‘hard’conservation. Territorial policies: the myth of self management Empirical and theoretical origins The relative merits of state and market have been debated by development policy-makers for decades, with first one then the other being more favoured. The same debate has occurred also within the more narrow field of the management of natural resources. According to Hardin (1968) either centralized management by the state or private property is essential to ensure the renewal of such resources. Hardin promoted the theory of the tragedy of the commons, arguing that common resources were doomed to disappear as they are necessarily overexploited by their users whose interest is not to save the resource if others do the same. But Berkes (1989) and Ostrom (1990) founded a school of thought in the field of institutions which challenged this view, opening a space for a third alternative to state and market. One of the flaws in the reasoning of Hardin, according to Ostrom (1990), is to have neglected the importance of customary institutions through which, in many situations, access to shared resources is not free, but is regulated by a set of rules in place and recognized by local actors (Barnaud, 2008). This is one of the origins of the territorial type of policy. Its origin is in the questioning of the centralized management of resources by the state. The self-management movement is constructed to mobilize in reaction against centralized management. In southern countries, these policies are based on criticism of the post-colonial authoritarian state mentioned above. These policies are based on the myth of collective action, integrated in a territory, with affirmation of territorial identity (Roca and Oliveira-Roca, 2007). This collective action claims self-management and local development can be institutionalized (rural development programmes in Europe, rural development policy in Tunisia, decentralization). These approaches are similar to policies of rural development (Van der Ploeg et al., 2000) and of decentralization which envisioned that


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local governments are better equipped to understand local problems and the development needs in their own locality and hence can implement and monitor development projects in their area more effectively than a hierarchical centralized government (as is the case in the Panchayat Raj Act in India). For example, many Gram Panchayats (village level PRIs) in Karnataka have succeeded in implementing sanitation programmes, plastic-free campaigns, literacy programmes, establishing women’s self- help groups and adopting environmentally friendly agriculture in places where the respective departments in the state government had not necessarily succeeded in such programmes. Initiatives by the local population, regardless of external institutions, are valued in policy process. External institutions may be requested to provide the resources and technical advice needed, but people are masters of the use of resources. Agricultural economists combine these approaches by their desire to expand their field of work. They focus their attention beyond the policies for agriculture, towards the governance of rural land: This requires a new approach towards the management of the rural environment that relies less on central government direction and more on an integrated approach across different types of organisation at a more local level. It also implies a more interdisciplinary or ‘thicker’ analysis [. . .], drawing on a range of methodologies (Hodge, 2007, p. 410).

Its limits, its dilemmas This myth is facing difficulties in practice, with the complex relationship between collective action, participatory, endogenous and institutionalization in the local and international programmes (such as the Leader programme in Europe). Examples where the benefits of participatory development projects or policies of decentralization are bought by local elites are often mentioned (Barnaud, 2008, p. 28). Blinded by the myth of a homogeneous community, the risk is of reproducing and even increasing differences of power inherent in communities where the actions are implemented. Focused exclusively on local actors, the process of self-management may generate proposals for solutions that will not be implemented due to a lack of institutional support at higher levels. Some authors advocate greater reliance on the village representatives, and institutional interface between communities and governments at higher levels. Since they are often products of the local elite, the risk of reinforcing existing inequalities in the community remains (Barnaud, 2008). Territorial policies carried out in Indonesia (spatial planning) and India (the Panchayat Raj Act) face the challenge of asserting an authority on the


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one hand, and linking up with the pre-existing sectoral logic on the other hand. For example, in India, though Karnataka is ranked among the most decentralized states, it has not been able to sufficiently empower all PRIs (Panchayat Raj Institutions). There are very few PRIs that have actually realized their full potential. This imperfection allows complacency and corruption to creep in, further weakening the PRIs, and creating a vicious cycle. This also results in PRIs becoming redundant; that is, other vertical line departments (like the department of agriculture) carry on with their older centralized scheme of work as before. In some situations this may also result in PRIs themselves becoming the bone of contention between different line departments. In cases where PRIs are strong, they create alternative governments and horizontal power points, often clashing with the authority of vertical line departments. Another example in India is the case of regional development Acts and authorities, whose aim was to focus actions on areas lagging behind in socio-economic indicators. However, a few panels appointed by the state government to study regional imbalance in development have suggested that such boards have not been significant in contributing to the overall development of their respective areas. The establishment of special area boards adds to the large government machinery already existing in the state. Together with numerous schemes from various line departments and the PRIs, these boards add one more layer of government intervention for development. This may create disorder in terms of coordination between the different arms of the government, thus delaying the planning and implementation of the proposed development packages.

CONCLUSION In this chapter we devised a common analytical framework to analyse land use policies in the seven case studies presented previously. This framework includes elements regarding the orientation, the governance of land use policies and their relation to land. In spite of a trend towards liberalization of trade, state intervention remains in sectoral policies. Resources and social policies which are disconnected from sectoral policies do not tackle the causes of environmental problems and poverty. Territorial policies seem innovative and promising, but they must be well articulated with other policies. The different types of land use policies reflect different conceptions of development that we have characterized by several myths: the myth of the market for sectoral policies; the myth of state control over the


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management of natural resources or the commons for resource-oriented policies; the myth of self-management for territorial policies. Beyond opposition between governance by the state, the market, the informal sector or local governance and municipal governments, we can see the emergence of mixed configurations, between socialism and market capitalism. International institutions are part of these mixed configurations. What kind of governance can be developed to combine the merits of a respected state, the dynamism of the private sector, and the expectations and initiatives of civil society? As these case studies show, it is a true challenge to articulate actions and actors at different levels; and creativity and innovation are needed to address these challenges in a way that takes into account the specificities of each country.

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14. Conclusions and policy recommendations Floor Brouwer, Desmond McNeill and Ingrid Nesheim PERSPECTIVE OF THE VOLUME This volume offers a wide-ranging overview of efforts to improve the understanding of land use policies in the context of sustainable development. The selected case studies that are reviewed originate from Latin America, Africa and Asia. They also include a range of economic development pathways (with societies facing extreme poverty in Mali and Kenya, and emerging economies with high growth rates in China and India). In addition, different pressures on the environment are observed, with biodiversity loss in Brazil and Indonesia, land degradation processes in Tunisia, Kenya, Mali and India, as well as problems related to the availability and quality of water resources in Tunisia, Mali, Kenya, China and India. Finally, social constraints are observed in many cases, and the required institutional setting often is not in place to implement the policies properly. Although the case studies are very varied, a number of conclusions emerge from the volume regarding the development and use of tools to assess the impacts of land use policies for sustainable development in developing countries. 1. The significance of land use policies for sustainable development. Land use related activities are influenced by several sectors; while agriculture and forestry are dominant users of the limited land resources in most cases, tourism and the designation of nature conservation zones are important as well. Policies such as those identified in the case studies to cope with land degradation are often also targeted at the alleviation of poverty in developing countries. Land use policies are also increasingly suited to the regional level and appropriate to cope with even more localized issues. 282


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2. The need for ex-ante assessments of land use policies is increasingly felt. Methods for ex-ante assessments of land use policies at regional (i.e. sub-national) level are rarely available for use by scientists in developing countries. The approaches that are available often focus on assessment of environmental themes (e.g. land degradation policies to cope with soil erosion or eutrophication). We argue in favour of impact assessment approaches that link policy measures with decisions regarding agriculture, forestry, tourism and nature management, and explore their linkages with sustainable development at large. 3. Essential steps in performing an impact assessment. The design and implementation of an impact assessment should take into account the following: i. Consultation of the stakeholders involved to ensure local knowledge and anchoring. Such consultation includes regular interaction between policy makers and the researchers involved. The importance of such interaction cannot be emphasized enough, being an essential approach to increase both the quality and the policy relevance of the research. It is essential to design and implement policies that are forward looking, taking into account the challenges that are often felt at regional level between economic development, with its claims on the physical and natural environment, and the broader social context. In many poor countries existing research currently underestimates the importance of the ecological and social dimensions that shape, and are shaped by, economic development. We claim that the research capacity to perform impact assessments is urgently needed to overcome such constraints. ii. Participatory approaches provide a source of new ideas for policy options. Such participatory approaches require a careful selection of participants. If this is not done in a proper manner, the impact assessments would at best result in biased outcomes, and could even provide incorrect claims about the links between land use policies with sustainable development. Focus groups, for example, are suitable for analysing the policies for implementation by the actors. As part of such focus groups, factors critical to the successful implementation of policies could be identified, as well as strategies to cope with them in real-world situations. iii. The need for multidisciplinary approaches. It is necessary to draw on a range of disciplines, from both natural and social sciences. And it is important that researchers work together


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over an extended period of time, in order to clarify and resolve differences in perspective, and even terminology, as a basis for undertaking a coherent and integrated study that is accessible to policy makers. iv. Major data constraints are often faced when preparing an integrated assessment. However, we argue that such serious limitations in data availability need not prevent researchers from understanding the issues at stake and exploring the room for policy intervention; expert knowledge can often be used in place of statistics. Regular interaction between researchers and policy makers is indispensable in exploring promising intervention strategies. v. The role of the researcher in an impact assessment study needs to be clearly understood. With regard to analysing factual trade- offs between sustainable development objectives he/she is an expert; but with regard to the value trade-offs the researcher’s role is that of facilitator, to elicit the views and priorities of stakeholders. vi. An impact assessment study is necessarily iterative; initial data, findings, and even terminology, need to be seen as preliminary, and subject to revision as the study proceeds, even until the last stage. vii. The impacts of policies are felt at different scales. And while the impact of measures is felt mainly by individual actors, in the case of economic and social domains, pressures on the environment (and the impact of measures to reduce them) are often observed at regional level. Policy measures need to be taken that cope with such pressures across the different spatial levels. viii. In selecting policy options, and in assessing their impact, it is important to be realistic about the willingness and ability of governments to implement them, and to build this into the assessment methodology.

Ex-ante policy impact assessment helps policy makers to understand the intended and unintended impacts of the assessed policies on diverse stakeholders and institutions – including those not directly targeted by the policy.


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POLICY MESSAGES FROM THE VOLUME Policies such as those that are discussed in the volume may be focused on achieving one specific environmental, economic or social objective. A policy aimed at promoting biodiversity, for example, may not have any specific goal of increasing income for those dependent upon the natural resources that are targeted by the policy. Similarly, a policy aimed at reducing poverty will probably not include specific measures to protect the natural resources upon which potential economic growth is based. But some policies target a mix of objectives, even though they may be to some extent difficult to reconcile. In fact, several of the case studies in this volume refer to such integrated policies, which include goals set for both the protection of natural resources as well as the economic development of those depending on them; while others are primarily aimed at one dimension of sustainable development although not ignoring the other two. It is very rarely that a policy is able to promote all three dimensions of sustainable development at the same time, which is precisely why one requires the sort of analysis that is set out in this book. Furthermore, and depending on how the policies are implemented in practice, the outcomes might diverge from their intentions. Stakeholders that are involved in land management, such as farmers and forest owners, play a vital role in implementing sustainable practices in rural areas. Their involvement in the assessment of policies is important not only in order to benefit from their knowledge and understand their priorities, but also in order to increase the likelihood of policies being effectively implemented. The volume promotes an integrated and forward-looking approach to policy making for sustainable development, which seeks to combine two primary goals: to protect the environment and to alleviate poverty in developing countries. The seven different case studies, from three continents, demonstrate not only the theoretical but also the practical challenge of designing suitable methods for assessing the impact of alternative policies. There will always be some degree of conflict between different goals, and also between different interest groups; but approaches such as those presented here can go some way to ensuring that policies adopted are fair, feasible and forward-looking.


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