Total saving = $3M. Estimating value, method 2 (future):. ⢠Find cost of full network outage for each network, use jeopardy and ML to back up discounted costs to ...
LogRank Survival Test: Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) by Networks 2002 versus 2008 ends of the Regression
• used in clinical trials to establish the efficacy of new drugs compared to a control group • used in MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) to detect performance differences such as whether one brand of engine out-performs another in terms of Mean-Time-Between-Failures.
LogRank Survival Test 2002 end of the OA TBF Regression is the Control 2008-2002 MTBF is tested to be statistically different from the Control
Log Rank Statistical Analysis Network MTBF Yearly DELTA 2008-2002 vs 2002 Control CHANCE YEARLY MTBF IN 2008 IS STATISTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM 2002 = 95%
Cumulative OA Survival Network-Days
100% 0
= 2008-2002 Yearly
80% 20%
60% 40%
40% 60%
rm o l N 002 a i t Ini arly 2 Ye
20% 80%
0% 100%
Jeopardy Networks
1
Log Rank Statistical Analysis Network MTBF Summer DELTA 2008-2002 vs 2002 Control CHANCE SUMMER MTBF 2008 IS STATISTICALL DIFFERENT FROM 2002 = 99.8%
Cumulative OA Survival Network-Days
100%
= 2008-2002 Summer
80%
60%
40%
rm 2 o l N 200 a i t Ini mer m Su
20%
0%
Jeopardy Networks
Variations in the Standard Deviation of Improvement Comparisons
99% = Summer 2008 – Summer 2002
95% = Yearly 2008 – Yearly 2002
15% = Yearly 2002 – Summer 2002
Initial Norm = Summer 2002
Columbia University Center for Computational Learning Systems Enterprise Risk Management Evaluation March 17, 2009 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Overall ML System Performance Capital Asset Prioritization Tool (CAPT) Contingency Analysis Program II (CAPII) Secondary Decision Support System (SDSS) Cost Benefit Analysis of Work Done 2002-2008
CAPT Design Overview • Develop linear regression analysis for MTBF from Machine Learning Models • Simulate MTBF to compare replacement strategies prior to investment • Compare strategies based on ratio of cost to MTBF improvement
Better MTBF from R&D Project for CAPT Tool
MTBF Project These feeders are priorities for treatment in current CAPT tool, but are actually fairly good
These feeders should have higher priority for getting treatment than they now do in CAPT
Project Goals: • Replace current regression model in CAPT with much more accurate ML model for MTBF •Generate TTF model, to estimate probabilities for surviving summer • Generate model for finding feeders subject to “infant Mortality” (i.e. CIOAs, OAs within 60 days) • Analyze models to establish root causes of feeder failures
Estimating value, method 1: • Assume each CAPT plan replaces 5 sections, for total cost of ~$100K • Approximately 30 plans executed each year, for total of $3M, and that value to Con Edison is 2 x $3M = $6M • Assume ½ of plans selected from left side of Distribution above are less necessary than others in Oval on right, and we can select them. • Total saving = $3M
Estimating value, method 2 (future): • Find cost of full network outage for each network, use jeopardy and ML to back up discounted costs to feeders, use MTBF changes to value work on each feeder.
Tasks for rest of 2008-9 Complete modules for infant mortality and TTF/MTBF for feeders And transfer technology for use in CAPT
Feeder Attributes & Historic OA Records
Model for Infant Mortality
Lifetime > 60 days TTF Predictor
TTFs
Fail within 60 days? Recommend monitoring it closely. MTBFs
