Sep 19, 2017 - Renault Kangoo. M-B Vito. BYD e6. Renault Fluence. 2012. Renault Twizy. Smart. ForTwo. Fiat 500e. Renault
London summit 2017 Breaking Clean Michael Liebreich
September 19, 2017
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations
160.00
500.00
140.00
400.00
120.00
$349bn 300.00
$317bn
$315bn $291bn
$276bn
$300 billion 100.00 $287bn
$269bn
80.00
$258bn (estimate)
200.00
$205bn
60.00
$207bn
$175bn 40.00
$128bn
100.00
$88bn
20.00
$62bn 0.00
0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro.
1
September 19, 2017
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations
160GW 160.00
500.00
140.00 400.00
120.00
88GW
300.00
$349bn $317bn
$315bn $291bn
$276bn
$300 billion 100.00 $287bn
$269bn
80.00
$258bn (estimate)
200.00
$205bn
60.00
$207bn
$175bn 40.00 100.00
$128bn
20GW $88bn
20.00
$62bn 0.00
0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro.
2
September 19, 2017
Plenty of good news – 1
Source: ABC Australia, Independent, Bloomberg, Oilprice.com
3
September 19, 2017
Plenty of good news – 2
Source: Businessgreen, FT, Bloomberg, BBC
4
September 19, 2017
Plenty of good news – 3
Source: The Telegraph, Bloomberg, The Economist
5
September 19, 2017
President Trump
Source: White House
6
September 19, 2017
Trump on climate December 2009
If we fail to act now, it is scientifically irrefutable that there will be catastrophic and irreversible consequences for humanity and our planet. Donald J. Trump Donald J. Trump Jr Eric F. Trump Ivanka M. Trump 7
September 19, 2017
Image: New York Times
Trump on climate 6 November 2012
The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive. Donald Trump US Presidential Candidate Image: IBTimesUK
8
September 19, 2017
Trump on climate February/March 2017
Source: White House, EPA
9
September 19, 2017
Trump on climate 1 June 2017
The United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.
Donald Trump US President Image: Bloomberg
10
September 19, 2017
Trump on climate 16 September 2017
The U.S. has stated that they will not renegotiate the Paris accord, but they will try to review the terms on which they could be engaged under this agreement. Miguel Arias Cañete European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Wall Street Journal
11
September 19, 2017
Image: European Union
Trump on climate 17 September 2017
The President said he's open to finding those conditions where we can remain engaged with others on what we all agree is still a challenging issue. Rex Tillerson US Secretary of State Image: US Department of Energy
12
September 19, 2017
Trump on climate 16 September 2017
There has been no change in the United States' position on the Paris agreement.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders White House Press Secretary Image: Washington Examiner
13
September 19, 2017
The world’s response to Trump on climate
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Source: Emojipedia
14
September 19, 2017
The world in 2004…
Source: NASA
15
September 19, 2017
EIA global energy mix and fuel consumption forecast Global energy consumption mix
IEO 2004 world coal and gas consumption
100%
Quadrillion Btu 180
90%
160
80% 70%
Renewables
60%
Nuclear
50%
Coal
40%
Natural Gas
80
30%
Oil
60
120
40
10%
20
0%
Coal
100
20%
0 2004
2010
2015
Source: EIA
16
Natural Gas
140
September 19, 2017
2020
2025
2000 Source: EIA
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Oil price history and 2004 forecast Axis $/bbltitle real(units) 2000 120 100 80 60 40
EIA 2004 oil price forecast 20 IEA WEO 2004 oil price forecast 0 1990
1995
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
17
September 19, 2017
2000
2005
2010
2015
Gas prices and U.S. imports Global gas price benchmarks, 1990-2004
Net U.S. LNG imports
$/MMBtu
Trillion cubic feet
14
6
12
Japan cif
10
4
Germany average border price
8 6
2004 EIA forecast
3
NBP 2
4 Henry Hub 2
0 1990
1995
2000
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
18
5
September 19, 2017
1 0 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
2020
2025
Nuclear was about to undergo a renaissance
Reactors in operation in 2010 Reactors expected to be in operation by 2025 New nuclear powers Source: International Atomic Energy Agency; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
19
September 19, 2017
IEA Outlook for renewables in 2004 – cumulative capacity Wind
Solar
GW installed
GW installed
350
350
300
300
250
250
WEO 2004 forecast 200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
WEO 2004 forecast 0
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
20
September 19, 2017
2020
2025
2030
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
2020
2025
2030
IEA outlook for renewables in 2004 – annual additions Wind
Solar
Capacity additions per year (GW)
Capacity additions per year (GW) 14
14 2021-30 12
12
2011-20
10
10
2004-10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
2011-20 2004-10
0
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
21
2021-30
September 19, 2017
2020
2025
2030
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
2020
2025
2030
Wind and solar costs 2004 wind LCOE €150/MWh
Wind eur/MWh 1,024
2004 c-Si module price $4.1/W
Solar $/W 100
1976
1985
512 256
1985
10
1994
2004
2003
1999
128
1
64 32
0.1
16 100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1
10
100
Cumulative capacity (MW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
22
September 19, 2017
1000
10000
Cumulative capacity (MW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
H2FC vehicle targets for 2020 in 2004
“
(m vehicles)
Fuel cell vehicles will probably overtake gasolinepowered cars in the next 20 to 30 years
5m 2.5m
5m
Takeo Fukui, Managing Director, Research and Development, Honda Motor Co., Bloomberg News, June 5, 1999
“
Fuel cells will power cars with little or no waste at all. We happen to believe that fuel cell cars are the wave of the future; that fuel cells offer incredible opportunity. US President George W. Bush, February 25, 2002 Source: DOE, European Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Technology Platform, Juhani Laurikko (Premia-EU)
23
September 19, 2017
Renewable electricity generation by region, 1990-2004 TWh per year 140 120 100
Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latam Africa Middle East
80 60
40 20 0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
24
September 19, 2017
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
EU leadership from 2004
Source: BBC
25
September 19, 2017
Not everyone agreed with the orthodoxy…
26
September 19, 2017
The world in 2004 Problems •
Climate Change
•
Second Gulf War
•
Aging power infrastructure (developed world)
•
Brownouts (industrialising countries)
• Energy poverty (poorest countries) •
Opportunities •
Breakthroughs in material sciences
•
Experience curves
•
Low-cost communications
• Energy deregulation •
Innovation/entrepreneurship
•
Availability of capital
Rise of China Source: New Energy Finance
© New Energy Finance
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m
200m
1-12kW
19th C
2 MW
1.2 MW
100m 0.5 MW
1990
1995
2000 Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
28
September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m
200m 4 MW
1-12kW
19th C
2 MW
1.2 MW
100m 0.5 MW
1990
1995
2000
2005 Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
29
September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m
200m
7 MW 4 MW
1-12kW
19th C
2 MW
1.2 MW
100m 0.5 MW
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30
September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m
200m
7 MW
9 MW
4 MW
1-12kW
19th C
2 MW
1.2 MW
100m 0.5 MW
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015 Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
31
September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 13-15 MW
300m
200m
7 MW
9 MW
4 MW
1-12kW
19th C
2 MW
1.2 MW
100m 0.5 MW
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2025
Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
32
September 19, 2017
Solar cost information 2004-style
Source: A. J. Nozik, NREL
33
September 19, 2017
New Energy Finance: the Thesis
Fundamental reengineering of the world’s energy industry around low carbon solutions and architecture
Will require trillions of dollars Will take decades Will be funded mainly by world’s capital markets
Source: New Energy Finance 2008
© New Energy Finance
The world today…
Image: NASA
35
September 19, 2017
Oil price Axis $/bbltitle real(units) 2000 120 100 80 60 40
EIA 2004 oil price forecast 20 IEA WEO 2004 oil price forecast 0 1990
1995
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
36
September 19, 2017
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4 -6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
37
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
38
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
39
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6
4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4 -6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
40
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
41
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
42
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6
4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4 -6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
43
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
44
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4 -6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
45
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
46
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6
4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4 -6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
47
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030 -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4 -6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
48
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
0
US Projected net imports of LNG -2 -4
Trillion cubic feet -6 2000 81995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Importer
6 4 2
Exporter
0 -2 -4
-6 1995
2000
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
49
September 19, 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual
Gas prices $/MMBtu
18 16 Japan cif
14 12
Germany average border price
10
8
NBP
6 Henry Hub
4 2 0
1990
1995
2000
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review
50
September 19, 2017
2005
2010
2015
Coal has peaked Coal production
Coal consumption
Mt/yr
Mt/yr
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
Asia Pacific Note: Adjusted to standard coal equivalent
51
September 19, 2017
Africa
2010
2015
Middle East
0 1990
Europe & Eurasia
1995
2000
S & Cent. America
2005
2010
North America
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review
2015
Wind and solar experience curves Wind
Solar
eur/MWh
$/W 100
1,024
1976
1985
512 1985
10
256
2003
2009
128
1999
2008 2014
64
Learning rate rate =19% Learning = 19% R² = 0.91
32
2025
1
2017 (estimate)
0.1
16 100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1
100
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
September 19, 2017
10000
1000000
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Cumulative capacity (MW)
52
2015
Learning rate = 24-28%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2017 Solar PV
Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price:
United Arab Emirates Marubeni and Jinko Solar 2017 2019 US$ 2.42 c/kWh
Onshore wind
Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price:
Morocco Enel Green Power 2016 2018 US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Masdar
53
September 19, 2017
Offshore wind
Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Merchant Price:
Germany DONG/EnBW 2016 2024 US$ 4.9 c/kWh
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
54
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
55
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
56
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
57
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
58
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
59
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
60
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
61
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
62
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
63
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
wind installations
Annual wind additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
64
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
65
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
66
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
67
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
68
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
69
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
70
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
71
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10
0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
72
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
73
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
74
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,600 Global cumulative 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0installed GW
solar installations
Annual solar additions GW per year
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10 0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical
2004
2006
2008
2009
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
75
September 19, 2017
2010
2000 2011
2005
2010 2012
2015
2020
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2025 2014
2030
2035
2015
2040 2016
Renewable energy proportion of power generation, 2006-16 Canada
UK China
25% 5%
6%
Germany
2%
29% 6%
10%
9%
Japan
US
Spain 3%
9%
Italy 25%
13%
12%
Lowest
India
Mid
Australia
Highest
Brazil
South Africa
18% 6% 1%
Note: Excludes large hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
September 19, 2017
6%
4%
No data
76
12%
7% 30%
3%
3%
12%
FCV vs. BEV sales Electric vehicles (thousand units)
Fuel cell vehicles (thousand units)
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0 Q1 Q2 Q3
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2014
Q4 Q1
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
77
September 19, 2017
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2016
2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 2014
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015
Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2016
2017
Black Swans Fracking
Fukushima
Photos: Wikimedia Commons; DigitalGlobe; Pete Marovich/Bloomberg; KAL/Economist
78
September 19, 2017
Elon Musk
The price of failure PV grade silicon price index, 2000-2017 $/kg 400 350 300
$1.5 billion
250 200 150 100 50 0 2000
2004
2008
2012
Source: Various, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar Spot Survey
79
September 19, 2017
2016
The price of failure
$48 billion
80
September 19, 2017
Coal bankruptcies, 2011-2017 STOWE Global Coal Index, 2011-17 8,000
Investment Pte
7,000
-75% in six years
6,000 5,000
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2011
81
2012
2013
September 19, 2017
2014
2015
2016
2017
Image: various company sources
US oil and gas company bankruptcy filings, 2015-present
$79bn of debt in Chapter 11
Cumulative outstanding debt of U.S. E&P companies under Chapter 11 protection ($ million)
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Unsecured debt
50,000 40,000
Secured debt
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Haynes and Boone LLP
82
September 19, 2017
Jul 16
Jan 17
German utility balance sheet write-downs
$66bn of write-downs
Cumulative (€ billions) 70
60 EnBW
50 40
Vattenfall
30
RWE/Innogy
20 E.ON/Uniper
10 0 2010
2011
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
83
September 19, 2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Saudi Arabia’s forex reserves Oil Minister Al Naimi declares market share war on US shale oil
Saudi Arabia reserve foreign exchange holdings ($bn) 800 700 600 500
400 300
200 100 0 2000
2005
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, The Economist
84
September 19, 2017
2010
2015
$240bn decline in fx reserves
Some people are still calling it wrong The social cost of renewable energy should include the cost of stranding thermal power and coal assets.
Arvind Subramanian Chief Economic Advisor Indian Government
85
September 19, 2017
Image: Financial Express
Some people are not wrong but misleading Solar and wind is taking over the world. We hear it all the time. Only it is wrong now 0.6%, 2040 2.9%.
Bjørn Lomborg visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center
86
September 19, 2017
Image: Lomborg.com
Sankey for the U.S. in 2016
68% of primary energy is wasted…
…almost all of it from coal, oil, gas and nuclear
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Lab
87
September 19, 2017
Contribution of wind and solar 0.6%
2.9%
100% 90%
70% O 60% il
Other RE Nuclear Oil
Other RE
Other RE Nuclear
Other RE
Oil
Nuclear Oil
Nuclear Oil
Gas
50% 40%
4% Wind
80% Nuclear
6.0%
Gas
Gas
16%
34%
Solar Wind
Solar
Other RE
Wind
Nuclear Oil
Other RE Nuclear
Gas
Gas Gas
30% Coal 20% 10%
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
IEA NPS 2014 Primary Energy
IEA NPS 2040 Primary Energy
IEA NPS 2040 Final Energy
Coal
Coal
IEA NPS 2040 Electricity
BNEF NEO 2040 Electricity
0%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
88
September 19, 2017
IEA NPS 2014 Electricity
The world in 2040
Image: NASA
89
September 19, 2017
Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Global cumulative installed capacity: Small-scale 2016 Utility-scale PV 3%
PV 2%
Flexible capacity
Onshore wind 7% Hydro 17%
Coal 30%
6,719GW
Nuclear 5% Oil 6%
Gas 24%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
90
September 19, 2017
Global cumulative installed capacity: 2040
Small-scale PV 10%
Coal 13% Gas 14%
Utility-scale 13,919GW PV Nuclear 22% 3% Hydro Onshore 12% wind 14%
Solar and wind attract 60% of new investment in power generating capacity Investment, by technology, 2017-2040
Investment, by technology, 2017-2040 ($ trillion - 2016 real)
Fossil fuels 14%
Wind
$3.3
Solar
$10.2 trillion
$2.8
Nuclear
$1.4
Hydro Zerocarbon 86% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
91
September 19, 2017
Gas Coal
$1.1 $0.8 $0.7
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Tipping point 1: new vs new China
U.S.
$/MWh (real 2016)
$/MWh (real 2016)
CCGT
180
120
160
100
140 120 100
80
Utility-scale PV
80
Coal
20
Onshore wind
2017 2020
Onshore wind
0
2025
2030
2035
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
92
Coal
40
40
0
CCGT
60
60
20
Utility-scale PV
September 19, 2017
2040
2017 2020
2025
2030
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2035
2040
Tipping point 1: new vs new Japan
India
$/MWh (real 2016) 250 200 Onshore wind
150
CCGT 100
Coal
50 Utility-scale PV 0
2017 2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
93
September 19, 2017
2040 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Tipping point 2: new vs existing Germany
China
$/MWh (real 2016)
$/MWh (real 2016)
100
120
90 80 70
Utility-scale PV Onshore wind
Utility-scale PV
100 80
Onshore wind
60
CCGT CCGT
50
60
40 30
Coal
40
20
Coal
20
10 0
0
2017 2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
94
September 19, 2017
2040
2017 2020
2025
2030
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2035
2040
Poor outlook for coal in U.S., Europe and China Coal generation
Coal generation
TWh
TWh
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
China
2,000
2,000 U.S.
1,000
1,000
SE Asia
+50%
Europe
0
0 2012
2016
2020
2025
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
95
+132%
India
September 19, 2017
2030
2035
2040
2012 2016 2020
2025
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2030
2035
2040
Gas plays an important role, but its not bulk energy Incremental change in gas consumption
Incremental change in generation
Bcm/yr
Δ generation (TWh)
120
1,200
80
800
40
400
0
0
-40
-400
-80
-800
-120
-1,200 2017-20
China Europe
2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40 India Rest of APAC Americas ME & Africa ROW
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
96
September 19, 2017
2021-2025
2026-2030 Coal
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2031-2035 Gas
2036-2040
Demand response and batteries meet peak and balance the grid GW 1,200
Other flexible capacity
1,000 Demand response
800 600
Utility-scale batteries
400 200
Small-scale batteries
0 2012
2016
2020
2025
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
97
September 19, 2017
2030
2035
2040
Top 5 markets in 2040 China
343GW
U.S.
200GW
India
127GW
Japan
62GW
Germany
30GW
We need to talk about Europe
Image: NASA
98
September 19, 2017
BNEF New Energy Outlook: Europe Cumulativeinstalled installedcapacity capacity(GW) (GW) Cumulative 1,600 1,600
Penetration of variable renewables 100% 100% 90% 90%
1,400 1,400
80% 80% 70% 70%
1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000
60% 60% 50% 50%
800 800
40% 40% 30% 30%
600 600 400 400
20% 20% 10% 10%
200 200
00
2015 2015
2020 2020
2025 2025
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
99
September 19, 2017
2030 2030
2035 2035
2040 2040
0% 0%
BNEF predicts 50% renewables penetration in Europe by 2040 Other flexible capacity Demand response Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Other Solar thermal Small-scale PV Utility-scale PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Variable renewables share
European policy environment
“Stability of incentive programmes, planning processes & regulations is a big barrier to investment” 8 December 2005
Source: New Energy Finance
100 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2004 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
101 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2004 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
102 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2004 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
103 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2005 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
104 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2005 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
105 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2005 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
106 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2005 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
107 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2006 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
108 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2006 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
109 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2006 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
110 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2006 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
111 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2007 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
112 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2007 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
113 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2007 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
114 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2007 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
115 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2008 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
116 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2008 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
117 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2008 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
118 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2008 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
119 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2009 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
120 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2009 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
121 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2009 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
122 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2009 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
123 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2010 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
124 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2010 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
125 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2010 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
126 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2010 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
127 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2011 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
128 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2011 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
129 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2011 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
130 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2011 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
131 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2012 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
132 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2012 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
133 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2012 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
134 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2012 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
135 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2013 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
136 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2013 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
137 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2013 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
138 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2013 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
139 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2014 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
140 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2014 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
141 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2014 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
142 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2014 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
143 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2015 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
144 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2015 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
145 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2015 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
146 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2015 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
147 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2016 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
148 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2016 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
149 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q3 2016 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
150 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q4 2016 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
151 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q1 2017 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
152 September 19, 2017
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa $50bn
Q2 2017 Asia-Pacific
Americas
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
153 September 19, 2017
EU member state coal consumption 2000-16 Mt coal per year 140
140
140
140
140
140
140
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
154 September 19, 2017
0 Greece
2005 2008 2011 2014
0 Netherlands
2005 2008 2011 2014
0 Romania
2005 2008 2011 2014
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review
0 Italy
2005 2008 2011 2014
0 Spain
2005 2008 2011 2014
0 Czech Rep
2005 2008 2011 2014
0 UK
2005 2008 2011 2014
0 Poland
2005 2008 2011 2014
Germany
2005 2008 2011 2014
0
2005 2008 2011 2014
0
Bulgaria
Germany CO2 emissions German emissions have been flat since 2010
MtCO2e 1400
1200
Total emissions
1000 800
600
Power sector
400 200 0 1990
1995
Other Households Transport Source: UBA; BNEF
155 September 19, 2017
2000
2005
Waste Industry Manufacturing and construction
2010
2015
Agriculture Fugitive Heat and power
Europe generation mix and emissions 100% zero carbon Coal (TWh)
Gas (TWh)
Germany Poland
1GtCO2e
2030 range
UK
Italy UK Spain
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Germany
Czech Rep
France
Greece
Belgium
Netherlands
Ireland
Bulgaria
Greece
Romania
Romania
Portugal
Portugal
0
100
200
300
100% coal
2015
0
50
100
100% gas
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions; Coal and gas generation data is for 2015.
156 September 19, 2017
150
EU ETS price projection EUR per metric ton, nominal
35 Historical
Forecast
30
25
No EU ETS Brexit
20 EU ETS Brexit
15 H1 2017
10
5
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
157 September 19, 2017
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
Electric vehicle outlook to 2040 Annual global light duty vehicle sales
Global light duty vehicle fleet
million vehicles 140
million cars on road 1,800
120
1,600 1,400
100
54%
1,200
43%
80
1,000 33%
800
60 24%
600
40
400
8%
20
19% 7%
200
3%
1%
2%
0
0 2015
2020
2025 ICE sales
2030 EV sales
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017
158 September 19, 2017
2035
2040
2015
2020
2025 ICE fleet
2030 EV fleet
2035
2040
Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast $/kWh 1,000 900 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index 2010-16.
800 700
BNEF observed values
600 500
2025 average lithium-ion battery price: $109/kWh
400
19% learning rate
2030 average lithiumion battery price: $73/kWh
300 200
100 0 2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017; Note: Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both cell and pack costs. Cell costs alone will be lower. Historical prices are nominal, future ones are in real 2016 U.S. dollars.
159 September 19, 2017
BEV model availability, 2008-20 Land Rover Defender
Trumpchi GS4
Toyota RAV4
SUVs/Trucks VW Budd-e
M-B B-Class BYD e6
Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi eX Tesla Model Y* NIO ES8*
Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model X Chehejia SUV*
VW I.D. CROZZ
Volvo 40.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport
Renault DeZir
Sports cars
Qianto Q50
Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster
Tesla Model S
Tesla Roadster*
M-B SLS eDrive Aston Martin GLM G4 NIO EP9 Exagon Furtive RapidE
Hyundai Ioniq Mahindra eVerito ChangAn Eado
SAIC E-Lavida
Sedans
NIO EVE
Mullen 700e
CODA EV
Tesla Model 3
Kia Ray
LeEco LeSEE
Audi E-tron Sportback
BAIC EU260 JAC iEV4 Renault Fluence BYD e5
Honda Clarity
Lucid Air Faraday FF91
BMW i3
Hyundai BlueOn M-B E-Cell
Hatchbacks
Audi R8 E-tron
Geely Emgrand
VW e-Golf
Chevy Bolt VW I.D.
Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf BMW mini e Fiat 500e Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Runabouts
Renault Zoe ZE
Nissan Leaf 2*
VW e-Up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer
Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit
Kandi Panda
2009 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011
VW e-Bulli BYD T3
Nissan NV200
Small vans
Tata Smith Edison IRIS
Peugeot Partner M-B Vito
0
160 September 19, 2017
50
100
Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is estimate
ChangAn EM80 VW I.D. BUZZ
Renault Kangoo
150
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various.
200
250
300
350+ miles range per charge
Battery availability and prices Global EV Li-ion manufacturing capacity
Global EV charging points installed
GWh
Thousand units installed 271
+248%
+40%
+10%
+49%
+61% 363
Other Germany
131
France
Announced
Norway
225 103
36
UK
Under construction
137
Commissioned 103
151
Netherlands Japan
98
US
103
28 2017
2021 expected
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017
161 September 19, 2017
2011
China 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
The big challenge
Image: NASA
162 September 19, 2017
High renewable penetrations 13 February 2017 SPP 52% wind
23 March 2017 CAISO 46% wind & solar November 2017 ERCOT 45% wind
25 December 2016 Scotland 153% wind
9 April 2017 UK 56% wind & solar
9 July 2015 Denmark 140% wind
May 2016 Germany 67% wind & solar
November 2015 Spain 70% wind
26 December 2014 South Australia 61% wind & solar
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various
163 September 19, 2017
Future power supply Total generation
Low carbon generation
Flexible generation
Winter 80
80
80
60
60
60 40
=
20 0 -20
+
40 20 0 -20
40 20 0 -20
-40 Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
-40
Sunday
-40
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Summer 80 80
80
60
60
40
40
60 40
=
20 0 -20
+
20 0 -20
-40 Monday
Tuesday
GW Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
-40
Sunday
Baseload fossil
Nuclear
CHP
0 -20 -40
Monday
Peaking fossil
20
Hydro
Tuesday
Wednesday
Baseload RE
Thursday
Solar
Friday
Wind
Saturday
Sunday
Pumped hydro generation/Storage
Imports
Exports/curtailment/DR
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
164 September 19, 2017 90.0 70.0 50.0 30.0 10.0
Future power supply Total generation
Low carbon generation
Flexible generation
Winter 80
80
80
60
60
60 40
=
20 0 -20
+
40 20 0 -20
40 20 0 -20
-40 Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
-40
Sunday
-40
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Summer 80 80
80
60
60
40
40
60 40
=
20 0 -20
+
20 0 -20
-40 Monday
Tuesday
GW Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
-40
Sunday
Baseload fossil
Nuclear
CHP
0 -20 -40
Monday
Peaking fossil
20
Hydro
Tuesday
Wednesday
Baseload RE
Thursday
Solar
Friday
Wind
Saturday
Sunday
Pumped hydro generation/Storage
Imports
Exports/curtailment/DR
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
165 September 19, 2017 90.0 70.0 50.0 30.0 10.0
Two visions of the future Option A: Capacity markets “Central planning lite”
Option B: Demand-Led “Telecoms deregulation lite”
30
30
Storage/DR
Capacity market
Interconnections
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
Exports/Curtailment
-10 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50
-20
-20 Monday
Curtailment
Peaking fossil
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
-50 Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday
Friday
Saturday Sunday
Monday
Tuesday WednesdayThursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
166 September 19, 2017
New orthodoxy By 2040…
…too hard Shipping/air/freight
Industry
Land-use/deforestation
Energy access
Petrochemicals
Heat
1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of cars and light trucks will be electric The global economy will be 1/3 more energy efficient
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica
167 September 19, 2017
New orthodoxy Rebased to 100 in 2014 120 100
IEA NPS total emissions
BNEF NEO emissions
Prove
IEA NPS power sector emissions
80
it
60 40
20
wrong!
0 2014
2020
2025
2030
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
168 September 19, 2017
2035
2040
Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
169 September 19, 2017
Coverage. Renewable Energy Power & Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies
[email protected] about.bnef.com @BloombergNEF
Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight, enabling decision-makers to navigate change in an evolving energy economy. BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Michael Liebreich
[email protected] 
